Woe is us with President Trump. How could the pollsters get it so wrong? How could people prefer a racist sex-pest to someone so qualified?
- The Democrats’ supposed “blue wall” […] has crumbled. Indeed, with Hillary Clinton’s defeat, Democrats may have to rebuild their party from the ground up.
- But the Republican Party is also forever changed. […] The Party of Reagan has been supplanted by the Party of Trump.
- The divide between cultural “elites” in urban coastal cities and the rest of the country is greater than ever. Clinton improved on President Obama’s performance in portions of the country, such as California, Atlanta and the island of Manhattan. But whereas Obama won Iowa by 10 percentage points in 2008, Clinton lost it by 10 points.
- America hasn’t put its demons — including racism, anti-Semitism and misogyny — behind it….
Is that the analysis? Or, also from 538’s What a difference 2 percentage points makes:
- Republicans simply can’t appeal to enough voters to have a credible chance at the Electoral College. While states like Ohio and Iowa might be slipping away from Democrats, they’ll be more than made up for by the shift of Arizona, North Carolina and Florida into the blue column as demographic changes take hold. Democrats are the coalition of the ascendant.
- The United States was more than ready for the first woman president. And they elected her immediately after the first African-American president. With further victories for liberals over the past several years on issues ranging from gay rights to the minimum wage, the arc of progress is unmistakable.
- American political institutions are fairly robust. When a candidate like Trump undermines political norms and violates standards of decency, he’s punished by the voters.
If just 1 in 100 American voters switched to Hillary, that’s what we would have been reading.
The polls would have been right – by the time the votes are in Hillary will probably win the popular vote by 1.5%. The polls had her at 3.5%, and with that 2% swing the miss-predicted states would have flipped her way.
Either way, USA is a very divided country.
Our commentary tends to be all or nothing. The same in this country, even if we’re not so polarised – but in fact most elections have been very close, even though the winners will been seen as having the whole country endorse them and every aspect of their policies.
So we should be humble in victory and not quite so cataclysmic in defeat. Even if the consequences seem hard to bear.
The eternal optimist in me tries to see that Trump had at least 2 positions on most topics, maybe he’ll choose a good one? Terrible people have made good leaders in the past… but I don’t really believe it, mainly I console myself with the fact that we’re a long way away in a nice isolated, privileged country, that’ll probably benefit from all the fleeing talent and capital.
But that still won’t help us with climate change.
This, also from 538, now looks incredibly prescient, despite starting with “a quick disclaimer: This piece is not a prediction.” A 1.5% win to Hillary in the popular vote with Trump winning the presidency due to the distribution of white working class voters across swing states compared to the educated & Hispanics living in safe states. Someone had to call it right, even if they thought it unlikely themselves…
The irony of Trump becoming President while losing the popular vote after months of complaining of a "rigged election" is just too much.
— Patrick Bradey (@patrickbradey) November 9, 2016
Political alienation in the US was not just channelled into the Trump vote – in fact, the "Did Not Vote" option won first place (42%): pic.twitter.com/zYv3BY7BVs
— Bryce Edwards (@bryce_edwards) November 9, 2016