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Margins

Written By: - Date published: 7:40 am, November 11th, 2016 - 82 comments
Categories: us politics - Tags:

Woe is us with President Trump.  How could the pollsters get it so wrong?  How could people prefer a racist sex-pest to someone so qualified?

  • The Democrats’ supposed “blue wall” […] has crumbled. Indeed, with Hillary Clinton’s defeat, Democrats may have to rebuild their party from the ground up.
  • But the Republican Party is also forever changed. […] The Party of Reagan has been supplanted by the Party of Trump.
  • The divide between cultural “elites” in urban coastal cities and the rest of the country is greater than ever. Clinton improved on President Obama’s performance in portions of the country, such as California, Atlanta and the island of Manhattan. But whereas Obama won Iowa by 10 percentage points in 2008, Clinton lost it by 10 points.
  • America hasn’t put its demons — including racism, anti-Semitism and misogyny — behind it….

Is that the analysis? Or, also from 538’s What a difference 2 percentage points makes:

  • Republicans simply can’t appeal to enough voters to have a credible chance at the Electoral College. While states like Ohio and Iowa might be slipping away from Democrats, they’ll be more than made up for by the shift of Arizona, North Carolina and Florida into the blue column as demographic changes take hold. Democrats are the coalition of the ascendant.
  • The United States was more than ready for the first woman president. And they elected her immediately after the first African-American president. With further victories for liberals over the past several years on issues ranging from gay rights to the minimum wage, the arc of progress is unmistakable.
  • American political institutions are fairly robust. When a candidate like Trump undermines political norms and violates standards of decency, he’s punished by the voters.

If just 1 in 100 American voters switched to Hillary, that’s what we would have been reading.

The polls would have been right – by the time the votes are in Hillary will probably win the popular vote by 1.5%.  The polls had her at 3.5%, and with that 2% swing the miss-predicted states would have flipped her way.

Either way, USA is a very divided country.

Our commentary tends to be all or nothing.  The same in this country, even if we’re not so polarised – but in fact most elections have been very close, even though the winners will been seen as having the whole country endorse them and every aspect of their policies.

So we should be humble in victory and not quite so cataclysmic in defeat.  Even if the consequences seem hard to bear.

The eternal optimist in me tries to see that Trump had at least 2 positions on most topics, maybe he’ll choose a good one?  Terrible people have made good leaders in the past…  but I don’t really believe it, mainly I console myself with the fact that we’re a long way away in a nice isolated, privileged country, that’ll probably benefit from all the fleeing talent and capital.

But that still won’t help us with climate change.

This, also from 538, now looks incredibly prescient, despite starting with “a quick disclaimer: This piece is not a prediction.”  A 1.5% win to Hillary in the popular vote with Trump winning the presidency due to the distribution of white working class voters across swing states compared to the educated & Hispanics living in safe states.  Someone had to call it right, even if they thought it unlikely themselves…

82 comments on “Margins ”

  1. Bearded Git 1

    Real Clear Politics had it 272-266 Clinton. It only takes a tiny shift in the vote in 2/3 states to get the result we ended up with so they had it about right.

    538 got it wrong and also got it wrong on Brexit.

    The late FBI email scandal probably cost Clinton the White House.

    • Manuka AOR 1.1

      The late FBI email scandal probably cost Clinton the White House.

      Yes it is point #12 of “14 shocking things from the exit polls”
      http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/here-are-14-shocking-things-from-exit-polls-that-the-mainstream-media-isnt-talking-about/

      Comey’s announcement could actually have had a substantial impact.

      A full 50 percent of Americans decided to vote for Trump after James Comey’s announcement that he was looking into Clinton’s emails again. That final portion of the campaign showed that Comey’s message could have had an impact. Of the 13 percent of voters who decided in the final weeks after the announcement 47 percent went Trump and only 42 percent went for Clinton. In those very close states like Michigan and Wisconsin, it could have been a factor.

      • Lanthanide 1.1.1

        Even with Michigan and Wisconsin, she still would have lost.

        • Bearded Git 1.1.1.1

          She lost:
          Florida 1.3 (29)
          Michigan 0.3 (16)
          Pensylvania 1.2 (20)
          Wisconsin 1.0 (10)

          These add up to 75…….she only needed 38 more and a 0.7% shift would have got her the lot. Comey should be sacked.

          • Lanthanide 1.1.1.1.1

            She needed to win all 3 of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

            Hence my statement saying that if she only won 2 of those 3, she still would have lost.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.1.1

              They were part of the Democratic blue fire wall. All these states have consistently voted for a Democratic President for more than 20 or 30 years. That changed this week.

        • mikesh 1.1.1.2

          On the other hand there was apparently an article in the WSJ a few days before his announcement, which seemed to hint at McCabe, the FBI officer in charge of the investigation, having been bribed. His wife, who was running for Congress received a large donation towards her campaign expenses from a Terry McAuliffe, a close associate of the Clinton’s. I don’t suppose anything could be proved but it looked rather suspicious.

      • Bearded Git 1.1.2

        Thanks Manuka-says it all. The Republicans cheated again.

    • Lanthanide 1.2

      538 got it wrong and also got it wrong on Brexit.

      Sigh, this shit again.

      First, 538 did not publish any official prediction about Brexit.

      Secondly, amongst poll aggregators, 538 was the most bullish on Trump. They had Clinton at a 70% chance to win, and over the few weeks before hand, were repeatedly pointing out that a possible outcome was for her to win the popular vote, but to lose the electoral college. They said in their final simulations, there was a fair proportion of results where 4-5 of the states went opposite the way of their main model, which is what happened. Nate also posted a breakdown, showing that if Clinton won the popular vote by 1%, she’d only have a 25% chance to win the presidency.

      So actually, 538 modelling was very good – they were let down by the polls in the rust belt states being so far off.

      Garbage in, garbage out, no matter how good your model is.

      • Bearded Git 1.2.1

        @Lanth Clinton on a 70% chance to win….still sounds wrong to me

        • Lanthanide 1.2.1.1

          Based on the available evidence, it was an accurate prediction.

          Like I said, when the same model was run, but with Clinton only winning 1% of the popular vote, she only had a 25% chance of winning the electoral college, in other words, more likely-than-not she’d lose it.

  2. Manuka AOR 2

    This is a breakdown of who voted for each candidate by age, race, gender, incomes, education, rural/urban etc: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37922587

    For HC:
    54% of women, 41% of men
    88% of black voters, 65% of Hispanics, 37% of whites, 65% of Asian, 56% other
    55% of 18 – 29 yr olds, 50% of 30 to 44 yr olds, 44 and 45% of the rest
    52% of those w/ incomes under $50,000 p/a, 53% of below $30,000
    59% of urban vote

    Hillary Clinton won the popular vote: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-electoral-college-donald-trump

    • Bearded Git 2.1

      @Manuka 37% of whites….OMG there it is in a nutshell

      • Manuka AOR 2.1.1

        Also, those most invested in the future, – those aged up to 45, – voted for her. If voting age ended at 49, eg, she’d be in. (From that link above)

    • aerobubble 2.2

      Little, like Clinton, is unlikely to get out in front of the growing rage against housing costs, low wages, long hours, renting second class future. Student loans are just the first insufferable.

      Unlike the US, we don’t have a rigged election system that favours states over majority will. We do however have Labourlite unwilling to sacrifice for the cause, i.e Labour become a constituent party, let Green be the list party.

  3. Well Fed Weta 3

    “How could people prefer a racist sex-pest to someone so qualified?”
    It pains me, but once again I have to provide some balance to this. Clinton is corrupt. She lied about Benghazi. She showed incredibly poor judgement with her email. She has bullied her husbands sexual assault victims. She was certainly not ‘so qualified’.

    “Either way, USA is a very divided country.”
    Indeed, and it has been for some time. Reagan and Clinton unified voters, at least to some degree, behind their President. Bush 2 and Obama have polarised the electorate (although not entirely by their own fault).

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    Without California, Hillary Clinton would have lost the popular vote by over 2 million voters.

    That should make liberal lefties think about what that says about the Republican reality of much of the rest of the nation.

    • stunned mullet 4.1

      NZ Liberal lefties and righties for that matter look at the US of the television and the places they holiday in the USA and have the impression that the USA is just like us, when it is a very varied country with some very very deep differences to our way of life in little old NZ.

      I remember when I was a young fellow travelling round the US and getting on a bus in Chicago to go intercity and sitting down the back and receiving some very strange looks from the other people on the bus until opened my mouth and said hello at which stage they told me why it was so strange for a white boy to be sitting down the back.

    • Lanthanide 4.2

      It’s a strange thing to say, CV. A lot of people move to California, for the jobs, or because it is liberal.

      If California weren’t there, then a lot of the people would be spread out across the rest of the US anyway.

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.1

        Just observing that in the 49 states excluding Ca., there is a massive Republican voting majority.

        • McFlock 4.2.1.1

          and yet hillary’s 49-state popular majority improves markedly if you similarly remove texas.

          • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.1.1

            If you remove both California and Texas, Trump still wins the popular vote in the remaining states by well over 1M voters.

            • McFlock 4.2.1.1.1.1

              But if you then remove some of the smaller rural states, Clinton wins again.

              Ain’t it funny how if you decide some votes don’t count, your favoured candidate wins the popular vote?

              • Colonial Viper

                And the public granted Republicans wins state by state as well. Both houses of Congress.

                • McFlock

                  And how does that relate to popular vote for president?

                  Oh, it doesn’t…

                  • Colonial Viper

                    voters in individual states have empowered the Trump White House with the backing of both houses of Congress.

                    Trump is only the 2nd or 3rd Republican President since 1945 with this privilege.

                    • McFlock

                      That’s nice dear.
                      Meanwhile, more people voted for clinton than trump.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Yeah, but they lost the election and every branch of government.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Oh dear I just noticed that the Democrats also lost 3 Governors houses to the Republicans.

                      33 Republican Governors now, to 15 Democratic Governors.

                    • McFlock

                      Yep.

                      That’s what you get with FPP systems in the country that invented the term “gerrymandering”.

                      See, if trump had won the popular vote as well as the electoral college, you’d have a point. But all you’re doing is illustrating how defunct the system is – nobody “empowered” the republicans intentionally to have the trifecta as some sort of plan by the borglike hivemind of the electorate. But that’s what happens when you have a hodgepodge of systems to determine the checks and balances of the different branches.

                      Most voters didn’t want trump as president, let alone as president with republican house and senate.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      How do you gerrymander a race for Governor?

                    • McFlock

                      well, that depends on the specifics of each state’s electoral system, doesn’t it.

  5. Keith 5

    The point that is continually missed is that Clinton was bloody awful. She was no Joan of Arc, she was a horribly compromised politician with a violent track record and firmly ensconced with the lobbyists and corporates who have alienated so many Americans. The Clinton Foundation is reprehensible.

    Sadly the Democrats couldn’t have selected a worse candidate but their little comfortable establishment could not help themselves.

    That so many Americans could even bring themselves to vote for either of these two is remarkable and I can completely understand the non voters given the basement standards of the two candidates they were presented with.

    • Kevin 5.1

      I couldn’t agree more.

      Enough of the whining of how wrong the polls were, she was unpalatable to a large number of the population and her track record and personal issues back that up.

      Putin’s speech the very next day (probably one of two he had prepared) certainly made me feel safer about the future of my children.

      • jeremy anderson 5.1.1

        so why did she win the popular vote?

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          The proper question is: why did she win the popular vote but lose a number of key states that she should not have lost.

        • D'Esterre 5.1.1.2

          Jeremy Anderson: “so why did she win the popular vote?”

          She and Trump pretty much shared the popular vote between them. Last i looked, she got 47.7%, Trump got 47.5℅.It’s a bit disingenuous of people to claim that she won the popular vote, when they don’t go on to say how small the margin is. But this is the US electoral system: she lost states that she wasn’t expected to lose. Hence her failing to get enough electoral college votes for her to win. On the bright side, her losing may have saved us all from war with Russia

  6. mauī 6

    Still it’s an incredible, practically impossible victory from Trump. He had more or less the whole media (and biased polling) against him apart from Fox. Clinton had the superior funding, organisation and the ground game getting out early voters and Trump still won.

    • Roflcopter 6.1

      The problem was that the ground game was too targeted, and yet again, ignored what the workers were saying… case-in-point Wisconsin… Clinton didn’t even go there.

      As for the media, this piece from MSNBC talks about the media, Michael Moore, and why the media failed and Michael Moore called it…

      • Lanthanide 6.1.1

        Clinton was ahead by 6.6% in the Wisconsin polling.

        • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1

          Because of the abusive climate against Trump and Trump supporters, a lot of people did not want pollsters, or others to know who they were voting for.

          The shy/embarrassed Trump voter was a major and real phenomenon.

          • Lanthanide 6.1.1.1.1

            “The shy/embarrassed Trump voter was a major and real phenomenon.”

            Not yet proven.

            It is not clear why the polls were off.

            Personally I think their turnout models were wrong, alongside non-response.

            The term “shy Trump voter” literally means people who answer a poll, but say they are voting for Clinton because they’re shy to admit they really want to vote for Trump.

            • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1.1.1

              The term “shy Trump voter” literally means people who answer a poll, but say they are voting for Clinton because they’re shy to admit they really want to vote for Trump.

              Or said they were undecided. Or said they were for Gary Johnson. Or said f*** off, I’m busy.

              Not yet proven.

              You go ahead and take your time on that Lanth. Meanwhile the world is moving on.

              • Lanthanide

                “Or said f*** off, I’m busy.”

                That’s not a “shy Trump” voter, that is a non-response.

                Technical terms have specific meanings. “Shy Trump voter” is a technical term with a specific meaning. It doesn’t mean whatever you want it to mean.

                “You go ahead and take your time on that Lanth. Meanwhile the world is moving on.”

                Hey, I’m just telling you what 538 found out when they asked pollsters what went wrong. The reply is that it would take weeks or months to determine what went wrong with the polls, and anyone saying they know what was wrong is just guessing.

                Like you’re just guessing.

  7. Siobhan 7

    What you are calling ‘The incredibly shitty status quo’ is actually a dystopic nightmare for many Americans.

    What do you call going to prison for a lost library book. (And pretty much anything to do with the Prison System.)

    Getting your own child/husband/wife executed by a cop on the front lawn because they were having a mental break down and you called for help.(And pretty much any action that leads to a cop shooting…like being Black or especially Fist Nation)

    Losing your house, credit rating and job because you got cancer, or didn’t pay a speeding ticket, (and pretty much any petty little thing that dumps you in the debt Economy from which you can never escape).

    I guess the American First Nation people dealing with the North Dakota Pipeline could stand as an example.

    They were getting trampled over last week.

    They are getting trampled over this week. (and some stuff has been going down under cover of the Election)

    And…they will be getting done over next week.

    The DNC should have gone with Bernie. Or at the very least not tried to get the soft Republican vote (though to be fair some in the DNC did try to advise Hillary on this, but she wasn’t listening.). Thinking they could win votes with endorsements from the War Hawks was a massive mistake.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      What you are calling ‘The incredibly shitty status quo’ is actually a dystopic nightmare for many Americans.

      And it stayed that way, and even worsened for the bottom 50% of Americans, after 8 years of President Obama.

  8. rsbandit 8

    Clinton was not a good candidate. She was a God-awful candidate (political establishment when the mood was anti-establishment, untrustworthy past, current investigation issues).

    That shows what happens when you let the party machine appoint someone because it is “their turn”. Had the DMC chosen someone who was merely “okay”, they would have won. Democrat vote did not turn out for a candidate they did not like.

    There is a lesson here, but will it fall on deaf ears?

    • Siobhan 8.1

      I’m afraid so. The DNC couldn’t go with Bernie as that would threaten the very existence of their Financial, corporate, neo liberal overlords.. Thing is the clock is ticking anyway.

      ‘They’ will be looking at this election result, at Brexit, at Corbyn and thinking ‘the peasants are revolting’.
      The question is, will they learn to compromise and get over their Growth Addiction with a 12 step program, and then try to win over the Bernie and rational Trump types next election, or will they double down and make Americans so fearful they actually vote for ‘our very own’ despotic pant suited overlords..

      • Wayne 8.1.1

        Well I guess the Democrats can try out a socialist candidate in 2020, just like UK Labour is with Corbyn. Then they will know the actual appeal one way or another.
        In the US the party hierarchy do not choose, the registered voters do. That is why the Republicans got Trump. Sanders had his shot with the voters and lost. It wasn’t stolen from him.

        • Stuart Munro 8.1.1.1

          Rubbish Wayne – he was nobbled. In much the same way as UK Labour tried to nobble Corbyn.

          The non-troughing classes are sick of your lot Wayne, they need real change just to get a break-even result. Neo-liberalism hasn’t enriched them as you swine promised, it has taken the bread from their childrens’ mouths. People will fight over that.

  9. stunned mullet 9

    Don’t blame me I voted for Kodos !

  10. roy cartland 10

    Sorry to hijack – Standard, can we have a bit of a more focussed discussion on the following? I’m still unclear, esp with the likes of eg CV’s posts and comments.

    Do we not like Trump just because of who and what he is or what he will enact? Naturally he has emboldened bigots and haters everywhere and that sucks for sure – but will his actual actions as potus have any upsides?

    He took down the Paris repeal and the Muslim ban from his site for eg – maybe there’s a opening to reach out to the supporters there and get them onside. Maybe they know he’s a complete dickhead but think him more of a fool than a knave? We don’t need the arseholes, just the despairing will be enough.

    (I’ve been reading these:)

    https://zcomm.org/znetarticle/what-now/

    https://zcomm.org/znetarticle/trumps-victory-speaks-to-a-crumbling-liberal-order/

    http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/aaron-sorkin-donald-trump-president-letter-daughter

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      His Presidency will have massive upsides for NZ. One reason I supported him. Just check out the post which has just gone up by NATWATCH. The TPP is toast.

      Thanks Donald J Trump.

      • Lanthanide 10.1.1

        There’s a reasonable chance that if he actually manages to enact the policies he’s promised, he’ll create a worldwide recession, which will harm NZ.

        Also, Hillary said she didn’t support TPPA either. So there’s that.

        • mauī 10.1.1.1

          The only reason she backtracked on the Tppa was because of the Sanders movement. With all her corporate backing it was likely she would flipflop on her position once in power.

          • Lanthanide 10.1.1.1.1

            Possible, we’ll never know. This was her statement though, which is pretty unequivocal:

            “I’ll oppose it now, I’ll opposite after the election, and I’ll oppose it as President,” Hillary Clinton said in a speech in early August, seemingly snuffing out almost ten years of negotiation.

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1.1.1

              Was that Clinton’s public position, or her private position?

              Do you know what changed exactly to change her mind that the TPPA was the “gold standard” in free trade agreements?

              • Lanthanide

                Obviously it’s her public position, because she said it in public on record. Whether her private position is the same, I don’t know, you’d have to ask her. Good luck on that. As others have pointed out to you in the past, having a public position that’s required of you in your job as sectary of state, is different than what your own private position in the same subject might be.

                Nope, I don’t know what changed her mind, but you can read more about the topic here: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/13/hillary-clinton/what-hillary-clinton-really-said-about-tpp-and-gol/

                I would suggest that, once again, in 2012 when she supported it, she was doing her job as secretary of state. We both know that TPPA was never really a trade deal, but a way of buttressing against China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region – exactly the sort of thing the secretary of state would be running the white house’s lines on.

                But really you’re digging up history here, presumably as a distraction. The point I am making is that Clinton said in quite clear terms, very recently, that she would not support the TPPA if she were President.

                Meanwhile Trump’s said lots of things, like he’ll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Lets see how many miles he gets completed before 2020 (Obama promised he’d close Guantanamo bay too, and it’s still open).

      • Stuart Munro 10.1.2

        Perhaps we should see what he actually does first.

    • Lanthanide 10.2

      For me, it’s both.

      He’s a bigot, a racist and a sexist, and having someone like him in charge will embolden every day people to behave in those ways, even if he doesn’t change any laws in any way, his precense will normalise those behaviours.

      Then, I don’t like him because his policies are for the most part destructive, and he’s lied to his supporters about what he can achieve and what Hillary would do. I think those supporters will ultimately be very upset with him.

      Thirdly, he’s likely going to appoint 2-3 judges to the supreme court, and he’s said he wants to overturn Roe v Wade as well as marriage equality. Those will be massive steps back for liberalism in the US, and his appointments will likely continue to impede social progress for the next couple of decades.

      • Colonial Viper 10.2.1

        He’s a bigot, a racist and a sexist, and having someone like him in charge will embolden every day people to behave in those ways, even if he doesn’t change any laws in any way, his precense will normalise those behaviours.

        The most vociferous, nasty, venomous, self righteous abuse has come from the Left. Then there’s the underhanded bullshit like the DNC sending paid provocateurs into Trump rallies to try and start fights for the media.

        The Democrats picked a weak candidate to run and tried to shame and bully people out of supporting Trump. They failed.

        And to reward the Democrats for their behaviour, voters have now given Republicans control of the White House and both houses of Congress.

  11. Henry Filth 11

    Mister Trump has no policies.

    Whose voices will fill that empty vessel?

    • McFlock 11.1

      I’m sure one or two people will drop in their ten pence’ worth…

    • Colonial Viper 11.2

      1) 35% import tarriffs
      2) Repeal and replace Obamacare
      3) Remove regulations aimed at the coal industry
      4) Implement term limits and lobbying restrictions in DC
      5) Massive infrastructure investments
      6) Work with Russia to destroy ISIS
      7) Slash waiting times for the VA
      8) Remove Common Core school requirements
      9) Build up the US military including a 350 vessel navy
      10) Boost trades and technical training.

  12. esoteric pineapples 12

    I’ve been mulling over this Trump thing today, particularly as there are quite a few people I know who actually support Trump for one reason or another and it their perspective that interests me as much as Trump himself. For a minority it is their conspiracy theories that make them think that Clinton was worse to have as President than Trump. But for most I think there is more often than not a religious element to their support. This is usually not stated when they say why they support Trump. In particular, abortion is a button issue for a lot of people. There are a lot of otherwise progressive people who will still support/vote for Trump/ Republicans on this issue alone. There is also the issue of what “secularism” means in a liberal society. Secularism actually means the acceptance of all religious beliefs within a society, not the absence of them. But for a lot of religious people secularism may feel more like the suppression of their religious beliefs. Probably you can’t understand this American election and the response to Trump there and in New Zealand without seeing it as a battle over religious beliefs.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      Evangelicals ended up hugely breaking for Trump. As USA Today described Trump – a thrice married blasphemer.

      • D'Esterre 12.1.1

        CV: ” a thrice married blasphemer.”

        Is there something wrong with being thrice-married? There’s an awful lot of serial marriage about. Guess it’d be worse, were he a trigamist.

        Dunno about the blaspheming charge: I guess one’d have to be a theist in the first place, to recognise anything as being blasphemous.

        • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.1

          The mainstream media is still in meltdown over a Trump blindsider that caught them by total surprise, in part because they had been cheerleading for Clinton for months.

          • D'Esterre 12.1.1.1.1

            CV: “mainstream media is still in meltdown over a Trump blindsider that caught them by total surprise,”

            Didn’t it just! I’ve commented on that elsewhere. RNZ here has been particularly bad: I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve contacted them, asking them to desist from the anti-Trump propaganda. So of course they failed to see it coming, despite people like me warning them. I wasn’t surprised: the signs were all there. Though I did wonder for a while whether the weight of propaganda might get Clinton over the line. But no: trust the voter. Wisdom of crowds, eh?

            I note the violent demos in Portland and other places at present. The Democrats show themselves in a very poor light: democracy rules, but only if it goes my way! Sore losers: very bad form.

  13. Paul 13

    The left should listen to this.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Yep. Pretty obvious. If the Left can’t respond to the new political reality, the Right will.

      • Rob 13.1.1

        If this response is correct then why does it need a label to connect it to past ideas? I realise that a lot of old warriors have pasted Blue and Red to their banners in recent years and are looking to some resolution to their fight.

        They should get over their egos and their prejudicies and their judgments and their intellectual status and rethink about the world and NZ today.

        Look at the kids coming through in NZ , they really don’t see colour.

  14. D'Esterre 14

    Sigh of relief here, that Clinton wasn’t elected. Popular vote pretty much shared between them, last I looked: 47.7% to Clinton, 47.5% to Trump.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Yep. Trump brought it home with the much smarter electoral vote strategy, and despite spending only a small fraction of Clinton’s ad campaign, he had the authenticity and chutzpah to pull it off.

      Just heard Larry King say that having known Trump for many years, no doubt that Trump is at least a little surprised that he finally won.

      • Bill 14.1.1

        Strategy? Fuck off CV. He’s just a charlatan who played to a pretty obvious suite of sentiments.

        You wanna throw money against those sentiments? Money thrown away.

        You wanna be an insincere fuckwit who plays to those sentiments? BINGO! (Trump as ‘authentic’ – ffs give’s a break son!)

        I’ve told you before (Yup. Who the fuck am I to tell you anything) that the fact such an obviously devoid creature as Trump can successfully play to those sentiments shows, not that Trump is an anything, but simply that those sentiments run deep.

        • adam 14.1.1.1

          And on a sociological level, this election proves once again they are very easy to tap into.

          It’s not like we have not seen authoritarians of any strip, tap into them when the need arises, or in the pursuit of power.

          Putin, Berlusconi, and La Pen just to name a few in more recent times. Now add trump.

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 hours ago
  • Cycling: head injuries ignored because of entrenched macho culture
    Howard Hurst, University of Central Lancashire and Jack Hardwicke, University of Winchester Competitive road cycling is a demanding and unique sport. One where crashing is inevitable – especially at the professional level. While the risk of head injury is relatively low in cycling – approximately 5-13% – compared to contact ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 hours ago
  • The coming US shitshow
    Today President Trump once again refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the US election. Coincidentally, The Atlantic has a long article on exactly what that means, from voter suppression by armed thugs in the name of "ballot security", to refusing to allow the vote ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 hours ago
  • A moral void
    That's the only way to describe the SIS, who - like their British counterparts - decided to look the other way on child abuse: The SIS knew a young woman was being sexually abused by her father but failed to lodge a complaint with the police, effectively allowing the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 hours ago
  • When will Goldsmith resign?
    The National Party’s campaign has gone from bad to worse with a further two large miscalculations being uncovered in their alternative fiscal plan. Firstly, National’s economic spokesperson and list MP, Paul Goldsmith, used May's Budget figures instead of last week's PREFU numbers, and came up with a whopping $4.3 billion ...
    6 hours ago
  • The Adventures of Annalax: Part IX
    The initial session was a struggle. Annalax and Magni tried sorting out the details with the Isaac twins (the people pursuing the mountain trip). Annalax happened to mention his devotion to Lolth… whom the Isaacs, being ...
    7 hours ago
  • This is bullshit
    On March 13, three plainclothes police officers kicked in Breonna Taylor's door under a no-knock warrant targeting another person. When a person inside reasonably assumed they were home invaders and (this being America) started shooting, they shot up the place and everyone around them - killing Taylor. Today, one of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    8 hours ago
  • Arctic sea ice is being increasingly melted from below by warming Atlantic water
    Tom Rippeth, Bangor University Arctic sea ice today (white) is covering a much smaller area than in 1980-2010 (orange line). National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CC BY-SA Each September, scientists like me look out for the point when the Arctic’s meagre summer fizzles out and ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    10 hours ago
  • The long-term health burden of COVID-19: further justification for NZ’s elimination strategy
    Prof John D. Potter* This blog briefly surveys the emerging scientific evidence on the longer-term burden of symptoms and disease in survivors of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these symptoms point to damage in the brain and heart. These long-term harms add to the wide range of other reasons for ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    11 hours ago
  • Going High, Going Low: An Assessment Of The First Leaders’ Debate.
    Uncrushed: Jacinda Ardern knew exactly what was expected of her in the first Leaders' Debate. Labour’s dominant position, three weeks out from the general election, is constructed out of the admiration and gratitude of hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders who, more often than not, vote National.  Nothing she said ...
    12 hours ago
  • The smokefree policies of political parties: Do they care about people who smoke?
    George Thomson*, Nick Wilson, Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Richard Edwards In this time of Covid-19, helping people who smoke to quit their addiction has an even greater importance. Smokers are more vulnerable to many harmful health effects, including severe effects from the virus. Policies that support people who smoke to ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    12 hours ago
  • The Fog Of Economic Policy Is Starting To Clear…
    Bryan Bruce, https://www.facebook.com/www.redsky.tv, 19 September 2020 National’s economic policy of temporary tax cuts yesterday proved, if proof be needed, that they are unapologetic neoliberals. While their claim that with more money in their pockets people will spend more might sound attractive, the reality is that tax cuts always benefit the ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    21 hours ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38, 2020
    Highlighted article: Carbon pricing and planetary boundaries  Engström et al take what might be called a systems approach to evaluating carbon pricing, taking into a account various economic sectors affected by and affecting paying for emissions. The conclusions are overall a rare pleasant surprise— a feature predicated on cooperation.  Abstract: ...
    1 day ago
  • Humans ignite almost every wildfire that threatens homes
    Nathan Mietkiewicz, National Ecological Observatory Network and Jennifer Balch, University of Colorado Boulder CC BY-ND Summer and fall are wildfire season across the western U.S. In recent years, wildfires have destroyed thousands of homes, forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate and exposed tens of millions to harmful ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 day ago
  • Climate Change: China steps up
    China has increased its climate change ambition, and set a target to be carbon-neutral by 2060: China will reach carbon neutrality before 2060 and ensure its greenhouse gas emissions peak in the next decade, Xi Jinping has told the UN general assembly. “China will scale up its intended nationally ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Humans have dealt with plenty of climate variability
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz How much climate variability have humans dealt with since we ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 day ago
  • Indigenous perspectives on unrestricted access to genomic data
    By Genomics Aotearoa researcher Maui Hudson, University of Waikato It is vital that genomics research respects genomic data and genetic heritage from indigenous communities. Genomics research is a rapidly growing field of study, and there is a strong push to make the huge amount of data being produced open ...
    SciBlogsBy Genomics Aotearoa
    1 day ago
  • Terrible luck: lockdowns on learning and youth job prospects
    What is bad luck? Bad luck is spilling spaghetti sauce down your shirt right before an important meeting. When the person in front of you gets the last seat on the bus, that’s bad luck. Bad luck is when it’s sunny outside, so you leave the house without a coat, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 day ago
  • Ian Powell: Does private healthcare threaten public healthcare in New Zealand?
    Is the private health system impacting negatively on the public health system? Health commentator Ian Powell evaluates a recent NZ Herald article by Natalie Akoorie (“Public v private healthcare: Moonlighting, skimming, duplication – should NZ do better”), and looks at how the dual system works, and concludes that the answer ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 days ago
  • A rabbit-hole election debate: So do you want more avocado orchards?
    We live in strange and unusual times. It’s been a century since we’ve endured a global pandemic like this, more than half a century since we’ve had economic woes like this. So maybe we got an opening election debate for the times - because that was a strange and unusual ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    2 days ago
  • LIVE: Jacinda Ardern vs. Judith Collins, First Debate
    Tonight, The Civilian will be live-blogging the first of too many debates between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Judith Collins, and also the last fifteen minutes of the news. Be sure to tune in from 6:45pm for regular updates, which can be accessed by refreshing this page ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 days ago
  • Hundreds of Aucklanders arrested after illegal mass gathering on Harbour Bridge
    An enormous drive-in party, shown here, was held this morning on Auckland’s Harbour Bridge, where police were forced to intervene. Hundreds of Aucklanders were arrested this morning on public health grounds, after an apparent illegal mass gathering on the city’s Harbour Bridge. Police say hundreds of Aucklanders gathered in their ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 days ago
  • The Looming Fight.
    Social Distancing Be Damned - It's Jacinda! Shortly after ascending to Labour’s leadership, Jacinda described herself as a “pragmatic idealist”. It was an inspired oxymoron – packing into just two words the essence of the social-democrat’s dilemma. It was good to know that she knew what lay ahead of her. ...
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Moving faster
    Back in 2017, the UK announced that it would ban the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2040. Its a basic climate change measure, aimed at reducing emissions by shifting the vehicle fleet to cleaner technologies. Now, in the wake of the pandemic, they're planning to bring it forward ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • The Australian courts have had enough of refugee detention
    For the past decade, Australia has had a racist, anti-refugee policy. Those claiming refugee status are imprisoned without trial and left to rot in the hope they would "voluntarily" return to be tortured and murdered. When the courts have granted them visas, the government has immediately revoked them on racial ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Friction and the Anti-lock Braking System
    Yesterday afternoon I had to call on my car’s anti-lock braking system (ABS). For reasons best known to its driver, a car pulled out of a side road right in front of me while I was driving home after work, and I needed to stop in a hurry. I rather ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    2 days ago
  • The Inside Word: New Zealand Quarantine
    There are a fair few misconceptions about conditions within New Zealand’s Quarantine Hotels. Madeline Grant’s misplaced accusations being one prominent example, though she is not alone. Today, I thought I’d share the inside word, so to speak. A friend of mine has recently returned to New Zealand from overseas, and ...
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: ASA: Let’s not talk about this
    Last week, major newspapers carried a full-page ad as part of the campaign for a "No" vote to the referendum question about supporting the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill. The ad was authorised by the SAM NZ Coalition, which takes its name from a controversial American anti-cannabis group and includes ...
    2 days ago
  • This is not kind
    New Zealand has a serious homelessness problem, due to skyrocketing rents and a lack of state houses. One of the ways we stick a band-aid on it is to put people up in motels. Previously, they were charged full commercial rates, saddled with odious debt due to the government's failure ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Wokies are the establishment
    by Ani O’Brien In the absence of a better word with which to refer to the rabid activists who claim progressivism while demanding adherence to an increasingly prescriptive set of political beliefs, I call them “woke”. With its roots in Black American slang, the term originally denoted a person or ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • How to strengthen the post-isolation Covid rules
    Over the weekend, the Ministry of Health reported a case of Covid-19 in Auckland that is not related to the current Auckland cluster. Before we start to panic, here’s how I think the case happened and how we can strengthen our current border controls. The new Covid-19 case is someone ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    3 days ago
  • Neuralink and You: A Human-AI Symbiosis
    Becky Casale Elon Musk reckons his Neuralink brain implant is much more than a medical device–that one day it will drive a symbiosis between humans and artificial intelligence. “Good morning! I’m Dr Benedict Egg and I’ll be supervising your Neuralink insertion today. Do you have any questions?” “Yes, Doc. ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • Liam Hehir: Our obsession with American politics
    Many New Zealanders take a strong interest in US politics, with the death of Supreme Court Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg being the latest example. Liam Hehir wonders if it very wise for New Zealanders to get so worked about it.   Many politically engaged New Zealanders are now furiously ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • COVID: Back to Level 1
    After stamping the Coronavirus out via strict lockdown between March and May, New Zealand went through a good three months without any community cases. Then a local outbreak in Auckland rather buggered things up last month. Auckland’s been in level 3 and level 2.5 for the past six weeks. ...
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Climate injustice
    Who's causing our skyrocketing emissions? As with most of our other problems, It's the rich: The wealthiest 1% of the world’s population were responsible for the emission of more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorer half of the world from 1990 to 2015, according to new ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Good riddance
    The border closure and resulting lack of foreign slave-workers is driving the fishing industry out of business: One fishing company is effectively out of business while others are bracing for large financial hits as the deepwater New Zealand industry, unable to get skilled foreign workers into the country, have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #38
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... The tipping points at the heart of the climate crisis Many parts of the Earth’s climate system have been destabilised by ...
    3 days ago
  • Anyone for Collins?
    In the absence of national public opinion polls, we have had to make do in recent weeks with other guides to voter intentions. Those guides, such as the Auckland Central poll, the incidence of google enquiries and the responses to Vote Compass questions, have suggested, not unexpectedly, that Labour is ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    3 days ago
  • Crusher’s fiscal malfunction
    Crusher Collins - National Party leaderWe all know that the National Party is desperate to gain some traction during this election campaign and have been throwing pretty much everything at the Labour Party in order to try and undermine Jacinda Ardern and what the Coalition Government has achieved. But unfortunately ...
    4 days ago
  • Much of the commentariat’s reporting of the most recent GDP figure was misleading and unhelpful. The prize for the stupidest remark about the GDP figure for second quarter 2020 (2020Q2) released on Thursday (17 Sept) goes to Judith Collins, whose response to Grant Robertson’s comments indicated she did not ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Love and Hate as Complementary Revolutionary Acts
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh goloing@gmail.com (19/09/2020) Che Guevara said that a true revolutionary is motivated by love i.e. love of the oppressed, the poor, the children dying from preventable illnesses. This phrase of his is true but has been used by reformists and their more hippy wing have taken advantage ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 13, 2020 through Sat, Sep 19, 2020 Editor's Choice Get to Net-Zero by Mid-Century? Even Some Global Oil and Gas Giants Think it Can Be Done A report by a ...
    5 days ago
  • Tax cuts for all!!! (except you, you, and you)
    With the National Party this week announcing a new policy of tax cuts to spice up the election campagin. MyThinks went along to the launch and afterwards we spoke to the party’s finance spokesperson Paul “Golden Touch” Goldsmith. MT: Thanks for speaking to us Mr Goldsmith. PG: No. Thank you. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    5 days ago
  • Great Waves Washing Over New Zealand
    Always to islanders danger Is what comes over the seas ‘Landfall in Unknown Seas’ (Allen Curnow)Six economic issues external to New Zealand, which will greatly impact upon us. 1.         The Diminishing Global Dominance of the US. Since 1941 America has dominated the world economically and politically. Probably it could ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand has role to play in resolving crisis on ‘geopolitical fault line’, Helen Clark says
    By Geoffrey Miller New Zealand should continue to champion human rights in Belarus amidst an ongoing crackdown on protests by the country’s regime, former Prime Minister Helen Clark says. Protests in the country often referred to as ‘Europe’s last dictatorship’ erupted after the country’s disputed presidential elections on August 9 ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    6 days ago
  • Euthanasia referendum: How to cut through the emotions
    Jacqui Maguire, registered clinical psychologist This podcast episode highlights how difficult it is to have effective conversations about euthanasia due to how polarised people’s views are. I’m a clinical psychologist, with a passion for science communication. In early 2020 I founded the podcast Mind Brew, with an aim to make psychological ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Why we need cameras on boats
    In case anyone needed further convincing, there's another example today of why we need cameras on fishing boats: reported seabird bycatch doubled during a camera trial: Commercial fishers operating off Auckland's coast around vulnerable seabirds are twice as likely to report accidentally capturing them when cameras are on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Graham Adams: The religious right’s campaign to spike the euthanasia referendum
    In the leadup to the euthanasia referendum, an array of conservative Christian political organisations is running an expensive campaign to sow doubt about the safety of assisted dying. Graham Adams argues that these religious forces know that Christian arguments aren’t convincing the public, but that it is in the public ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • Opportunistic looting
    The National Party has spent the last six months acting horrified at the cost of supporting people through the pandemic and banging on about how the debt must be repaid. So what was their economic policy released today? Massive tax-cuts for the rich, of course! National has walked back ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Uncomfortable Choices.
    Dangerous Times: This will be the choice confronting those coming of age in the 2020s. Embrace Neoliberalism’s belief in racial and sexual equality; adopt its secular and scientific world view; and cultivate the technocratic, multicultural, global outlook required of those who keep the machinery of hyper-capitalism humming. Or, throw your ...
    6 days ago
  • Tony Burton: Covid and benefit payments
    It would be a great time to reform the benefit system, according to former Deputy Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury, Tony Burton. He argues the complexity of benefit system means that it’s failing to achieve its difficult three core objectives, which form an “iron triangle”.   New Zealand’s benefit ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • Talking tax: How to win support for taxing wealth
    Tax Justice UK, September 2020 Serious tax reform is on the political agenda for the first time in decades due to the coronavirus crisis. As this debate hots up it is important to understand what people think about public spending, wealth and tax. Tax Justice UK, along with Survation and ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    6 days ago
  • Getting Tough.
    Not Mucking Around: With upwards of 800 dead from the virus’s resurgence in the Australian state of Victoria, leniency is not on Premier Daniel Andrews’ agenda. The Victorian Police are cracking down hard on the protesters the Australian press has labelled "Covidiots".IMAGES OF POLICE, some in riot gear, others on ...
    7 days ago
  • Media Link: Nuclear strategy, then and now.
    Although I had the fortune of being a graduate student of some of the foremost US nuclear strategists of the day (1970s) and later rubbed shoulders with Air Force and Naval officers who were entrusted with parts of the US nuclear arsenal, I seldom get to write or speak about ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • The Chinese List.
    News that Zhenhua Data, an arm of China Zhenhua Electronics Group, a subsidiary of the military-connected China Electronic Information Industry Group (CETC), maintains a list of 800 New Zealanders on a “Overseas Key Information Database” that contains personal information on more than 2.4 million foreign individuals, has caused some consternation ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Things that grow fast, and things that surprise us
    Marie Becdelievre January 2020. The number of news article mentioning coronavirus exploded and anxious voices whispered about a global pandemic. Whisper? To me, it was only a whisper. I tend to learn about the world through non-fiction books, conferences, and academic research rather than news and social media, so ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37, 2020
    2,082,476,000,000,000 Viability of greenhouse gas removal via the artificial addition of volcanic ash to the ocean  (not open access, unfortunately) walks us through the numbers on a particular means of CO2 removal, addition of volcanic tephra to the ocean. The mechanism is straight chemistry and the cost is fully an order of ...
    1 week ago
  • Barbados to become a republic
    Barbados is planning to remove the queen as head of state and become a republic in time for the 55th anniversary of its independence in 2021: Barbados has announced its intention to remove the Queen as its head of state and become a republic by November 2021. [...] Reading ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Party Like It’s 1989: Bait and Switch is a Bad Look, Mr Hipkins
    At the 2017 election, the New Zealand Labour Party promised a Fees Free Policy for tertiary students. Basically, it would make the first year of university education free in 2018, with a second year in 2021, and a third in 2024. It also promised to restore Post-Graduate access to the ...
    1 week ago
  • Will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz What is the impact of temperature increases in the tropics? ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • A first-hand look: What it’s like to live in a 2020 California wildfire evacuation zone
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons It felt like 100 degrees in my in-laws’ Grass Valley, California, kitchen, but at least the lights were on and for the moment we were safely “distanced” from the Jones Fire. We’d just finished dessert, after pizza and a movie ...
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 is not the only infectious disease New Zealand wants to eliminate, and genome sequencing is...
    Nigel French, Massey University Genome sequencing — the mapping of the genetic sequences of an organism — has helped track the spread of COVID-19 cases in Auckland, but it also plays an important role in the control of other infectious diseases in New Zealand. One example is Mycoplasma bovis, a ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • A flaw in our electoral transparency regime
    A key part of our electoral funding regime is a requirement for some transparency around donations, on the basis that if we can find out who has bought our politicians (typically after we have voted for them) then everything is alright. There are a lot of problems with that regime ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Don’t Steal This Book
    On “In Defense of Looting” Matt Taibibi takes an entertaining look at this generation of woke activists and how they compare with Abbie Hoffman the iconic anti-Vietnam war counter-culture figure of the 1960s On Thursday, August 27th, the same day Donald Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination, National Public Radio ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Carbon prices must rise
    When Parliament introduced the Emissions Trading Scheme, it was worried that carbon prices might get too high. So it introduced a "fixed price option", allowing polluters to pay the government $25 in the place of surrendering credits. The result was predictable: after we were thrown out of international carbon markets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Disclosure
    The government will finally be requiring large New Zealand companies to disclose their climate change risks: New Zealand finance companies will be made to report on climate change risk, Climate Change Minister James Shaw has announced. The policy will force around 200 large financial organisations in New Zealand to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Tackling the hard issues – trust and relationships
    By Claire Grant, Genomics Aotearoa Communications Manager Community consultation is becoming an increasingly important aspect of research programmes in New Zealand, and with that comes the art of relationship building. Engagement between scientists and user-groups is certainly nothing new. But as stakeholder involvement becomes more of a requirement for science, ...
    SciBlogsBy Genomics Aotearoa
    1 week ago
  • Equality Network – September Newsletter
    Read the Equality Network newsletter here ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • The Left’s Lost Allies.
    Rebels In A Wrong Cause: The truly frightening thing about Jami-Lee Ross’s and Billy Te Kahika’s success in persuading thousands of New Zealanders that Covid-19 is just another trick, just another way of stealing away their power, is realising just how many of them once marched at the Left’s side. ...
    1 week ago
  • Legal Beagle: Low-Hanging Fruit
    In a couple of months, the 53rd Parliament will meet in Wellington, and approximately 120 MPs will be sworn in, many of them for the first time.They will all have political goals, some aligning with their party platforms, some not, some complex, and some simple, but they will gain one ...
    1 week ago
  • Closing the Gap thinks that Labour’s proposal to raise the top tax rate is great but………
    Media Statement For Immediate Release 10th September 2020 The income and wealth inequality lobby group, “Closing the Gap” thinks the Labour proposal a great start says Peter Malcolm, a spokesperson for the group. But they need to be aware of what many of the rich do and of what do ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: No nonsense
    ACT is pushing a "no-nonsense climate change plan". What does it involve? Repealing the Zero Carbon Act and Emissions Trading Scheme, reversing the fossil-fuel exploration ban, and allowing mining on conservation land. In other words, repealing any policy which might actually reduce emissions. Which is the very definition of nonsensical. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • My Climate Story: Coming full Circle
    This blog post is a follow up to my recap of Al Gore's Climate Reality Leadership Training I recently participated in. One of the exercises we were asked to complete was to write about our respective "Climate Story". This is a slightly updated version to the one I had submitted during ...
    1 week ago
  • A bill to criminalise wage theft
    Wage theft is a problem in New Zealand, with a widespread practice of forcing employees to work without pay, and regular cases of underpayment and exploitation. One reason why its such a widespread problem is impunity: rather than a crime, wage theft is merely a tort, dealt with by the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • Primary sector exports and jobs up again
    Primary sector exports and jobs are up again, demonstrating the sector’s underlying strength amid the COVID-19 global pandemic and US-China trade war, and supporting New Zealand’s economic recovery. Stats NZ today reported New Zealand’s merchandise exports in August were up 8.6% on a year ago, driven by an increase in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Clean energy future for more schools
    Schools across Aotearoa New Zealand will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. The Minister has allocated $50 million from the Clean Powered Public Service Fund to replace, or convert, coal boilers in schools with clean ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Building business strength with digital tools
    New training and tools for digital commerce will give small businesses, especially in the tourism sector, the support they need to adapt and innovate in a COVID world. Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash have announced details of how $20 million digital capability funding set aside ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • New pest lures to protect nature
    The Department of Conservation (DOC) is investing $1.4 million to develop new predator lures that would be game-changers for trapping and surveillance towards a predator-free Aotearoa, the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage, announced in Christchurch today. The proposal is to develop long-life lures attractive to a range of predators—rats, mustelids ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Support for innovative Pacific education responses to COVID-19 needs
    Supporting new and creative Pacific education practices as part of our COVID-19 response and recovery is the focus of a new $28.5 million Pacific Education Innovation Fund announced today by Associate Minister of Education Jenny Salesa.  “There is already an incredible amount of innovative and creative work going on in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Eligibility expanded for COVID-19 leave support
    The expanded scheme will cover: People who have COVID-19 like symptoms and meet the Ministry of Health’s criteria, and need to self-isolate while awaiting the results of a COVID-19 test. People who are directed to self-isolate by a Medical Officer of Health or their delegate or on advice of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Seasonal work visa available to more people
    The Government is putting in place a range of immigration policy changes to help fill labour shortages in key industries while ensuring New Zealanders, who have lost jobs due to COVID-19, have the chance to find new employment. “Two key sectors we are moving to help are horticulture and wine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • More border exceptions for critical roles
    The Government has established class exceptions for border entry for a limited number of veterinarians, deep sea fishing crew, as well as agricultural and horticultural machinery operators. “Tight border restrictions remain the backbone of the Government’s border strategy to protect New Zealand against COVID-19 and ensure New Zealand citizens and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Crown will not appeal Dodds v Southern Response decision
    The Crown will not appeal the Court of Appeal decision in the Dodds v Southern Response case, Grant Robertson announced today. “Southern Response will be paying the damages awarded by the Court to Mr and Mrs Dodds shortly. The Crown was already meeting their legal costs for this appeal. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Crucial PGF investments for Northland
    The Provincial Growth Fund is investing nearly $30 million in a diverse range of projects that will create immediate and long-term jobs and lift economic and social outcomes for Northland and its people. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones made the announcement today in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • $27million investment in global vaccine facility
    The Coalition Government has committed to invest $27 million in COVID-19 vaccine development through the global COVAX Facility, Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “The COVAX Facility is a key part of our COVID-19 Vaccine Strategy to obtain safe and effective vaccines. It allows us to invest in a high-quality, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government backing Māori landowners
    The Government will provide up to $1.69 million through the One Billion Trees programme to Māori landowners to make their whenua more productive through the planting of forests, both native and exotic, and improve economic and environmental outcomes, Forestry Minister Shane Jones has announced. “Around 1.5 million ha of land ...
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    5 days ago
  • New tools to make nature more accessible
    People planning to head outdoors now have a resource that lets them know how accessible an area is for people with varying levels of mobility, Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced today. The Halberg Foundation, Sensibel, and the Department of Conservation (DOC) have launched Accessibel, a new tool which helps ...
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    6 days ago
  • PGF makes Māori history more accessible
    One of the most significant battle sites of the 1860s Land Wars will receive $2.96 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to improve the site and help tell the New Zealand story to visitors, Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones have announced. Nanaia Mahuta ...
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    6 days ago
  • Making it official: The journey of te reo Māori | Kia whakapūmautia: Ngā piki me ngā heke o te r...
    The journey towards recognising Māori as an official language and taonga has been captured as a web series and launched today during Te Wiki o te Reo Māori, announced Associate Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni. “Te reo Māori is a living language, and understanding its significance, and pathways to ...
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    1 week ago
  • Better-than-forecast GDP reflects decision to protect New Zealand
    Today’s better-than-forecast GDP figures show the expected impact of the decision to act quickly to protect New Zealanders from the global COVID-19 pandemic. GDP fell 12.2% in the June quarter from March, reflecting decisions to close New Zealand’s borders and enter Alert Level 4. “This result was better than the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Boost for COVID-19 related Pacific education needs
    The Government is investing $39.7 Million over four years to support the educational needs of Pacific learners and families in the regions hardest hit by COVID-19, with Auckland getting an immediate boost, Associate Minister of Education Jenny Salesa says.   “Like all New Zealanders Pacific families want learners to do well ...
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    1 week ago
  • More resources for kiwi conservation
    New Zealand’s goal of 100,000 kiwi by 2030 is being helped by an extra $19.7 million in funding to accelerate iwi and community efforts to protect kiwi, Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced. “$19.7 million of Jobs for Nature funding is being invested in kiwi conservation activities including increased predator ...
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    1 week ago
  • Improving access to affordable electricity
    Ensuring New Zealanders can get the best deal on their electricity takes a step in the right direction today with the South Island launch of the EnergyMate pilot run by the Electricity Retailers’ Association, says Minister of Energy and Resources, Dr Megan Woods. EnergyMate is an industry-led programme providing coaching ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government achieves 50 percent women on state boards
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter announced today that the Government has reached its target of 50 percent on women on state sector board and committees – setting a new record level of women on state sector boards. “This Government is committed to having more women in leadership roles - ...
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    1 week ago
  • Record transport investment to help economic recovery and save lives
    Transport Minister Phil Twyford released today the final Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) 2021 which outlines the planned $48 billion investment in services and infrastructure over the next decade. “The final GPS supports our Government’s five-point plan for economic recovery by confirming our record investments in transport infrastructure ...
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    1 week ago
  • Advancing clean energy technology
    Three ambitious and cutting-edge research programmes that will lift New Zealand’s advanced energy technology research capability over seven years, have been supported by Government today, says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. The projects will each receive a share of $40.7 million investment from the Strategic Science Investment Fund. ...
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    1 week ago
  • Major milestone reached in Pike River Re-entry
    The critical area for forensic examination known as Pit Bottom in Stone has been reached in what is a major milestone for the Pike River re-entry project, Minister Responsible for Pike River Re-entry Andrew Little announced. “The infrastructure located in Pit Bottom in Stone is of very significant interest in ...
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    1 week ago
  • Economic recovery guides Govt response to retirement income policy review
    The Government is working on how New Zealand’s retirement income policies and settings can best support Kiwis in light of the COVID-19 economic recovery, with the help of the Retirement Commissioner’s latest review, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said. “The Retirement Commissioner’s three-yearly review into New Zealand’s retirement ...
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    1 week ago
  • Iwi community hub opens in Murupara
    A new digital hub and development centre in Murupara will be instrumental in growing the region’s productivity, said Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau at the official opening of two community initiatives today. “I’m pleased to be here celebrating a significant milestone for two projects set to make a ...
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    1 week ago
  • PREFU shows economy doing better than forecast
    PREFU shows economy doing better than forecast Unemployment to peak at 7.8%, down from 9.8% forecast in the Budget Year-to-June accounts show tax revenue, debt and OBEGAL better than forecast Global forecast downgraded as COVID-19 second waves and uncertainty grows Balanced plan to support critical public services, manage debt and ...
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    1 week ago
  • Spruce-up for Ōtaki community facilities
    The Kāpiti Coast town of Ōtaki will receive $1.4 million in Government funding for two projects providing scores of jobs for locals while improving community facilities, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. The Māoriland Charitable Trust will receive a $900,000 Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) grant to upgrade the ...
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    1 week ago
  • PGF funding for Jobs for Nature programme
    The Provincial Growth Fund will provide $11.88 million to fund fencing and waterway projects nationwide that will improve the environment and create jobs in their communities, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. “These projects will create more than 100 jobs nationwide with work starting within the next couple ...
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    1 week ago
  • Procurement to promote jobs, Māori and Pasifika businesses and sustainability
    As part of the COVID-19 recovery, the Government has strengthened its procurement rules to ensure its annual $42 billion spend creates more jobs, uses more sustainable construction practices and results in better outcomes for Māori and Pasifika, Government Ministers announced today.   Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford says the $42 ...
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    1 week ago
  • Timaru’s Theatre Royal to be upgraded and new heritage facility built
    The Government is supporting a major upgrade of Timaru’s iconic Theatre Royal and the construction of a new connected Heritage Facility museum and exhibition space with $11.6 million from the Government’s Infrastructure Fund, Jacinda Ardern announced today. “We heard the call from the community and the council. The Theatre Royal ...
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    1 week ago
  • District Court judge appointed
    Chrissy Montague (formerly Armstrong), barrister of Auckland has been appointed as a District Court Judge with Family Court jurisdiction to be based in Wellington, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Ms Montague commenced practice in Auckland in 1987 and went into general practice dealing with Wills, Estates, Trusts, Conveyancing, Relationship Property ...
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    1 week ago
  • Approval given to Commercial Film and Video Production Proposal
      A Proposal to provide for the development and operation of commercial film and video production facilities in areas of Christchurch has been given the go ahead. Hon Poto Williams, Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, has approved the Proposal, which was prepared and submitted by Regenerate Christchurch. Minister Williams ...
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    1 week ago
  • Supporting a thriving wānanga sector to benefit Māori learners
    As part of the Government’s focus on building closer partnerships with Māori and enhancing the quality of, and access to, Māori medium education, a payment of $8 million will be made to Te Wānanga o Raukawa in partial recognition of its Waitangi Tribunal claim (WAI 2698), Associate Education Minister Kelvin ...
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    1 week ago
  • Jobs for Nature boosts efforts to restore Kaimai-Mamaku
    The Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has announced a $19 million investment over four years in an important forest restoration project involving a partnership between the Department of Conservation, iwi/hapū, the Bay of Plenty and Waikato Regional Councils, community conservation groups and organisations such as Forest and Bird across the ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand first in the world to require climate risk reporting
    New Zealand will be the first country in the world to require the financial sector to report on climate risks, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. The changes build on the huge progress this Government has made to tackle the climate crisis. “Today is another step on ...
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    1 week ago
  • Economic data highlights impact of Auckland moving out of Level 3
    Economic activity across the Auckland region and the country bounced back to levels experienced under Alert Level 1 following Auckland’s move out of Alert Level 3, analysis in the Treasury’s latest Weekly Economic Update shows. The analysis of economic data since Auckland’s move out of Level 3 shows: Auckland card ...
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    1 week ago
  • PM statement on Cabinet COVID-19 Alert Level review
    Takiri mai te ata, ka ao, ka ao, ka awatea, tihei mauriora! Tātou katoa ngā iwi o Aotearoa, tēnā koutou! Tēnā tātou e whakanuia ana i te wiki nei, te wiki o te reo Māori Greeting to you all from Otepoti, Dunedin.  This week is the Māori Language week and ...
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    1 week ago
  • More mental wellbeing services for young people in regions
    More mental health and addiction services are available for young New Zealanders in Rotorua and Taupō, Wairarapa, South Canterbury, Dunedin and Southland from next month, Health Minister Chris Hipkins and Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter say. “The Government is serious about making sure New Zealanders struggling with mental health ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government joins forces with Central Otago communities to clean up waterways
    The Manuherekia catchment in Central Otago is the third exemplar catchment to be targeted as part of the Government’s plan to clean up waterways by supporting community-led programmes.   Environment Minister David Parker said the Manuherekia catchment is vitally important to the people of Central Otago.  “The Manuherekia rises in the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government confirms new Dunedin Hospital design
    The Government has agreed on a preferred design for the new Dunedin Hospital featuring two separate buildings, and has provided funding for the next stages of work.   Minister of Health Chris Hipkins says Cabinet has approved in principle the detailed business case for the new hospital, giving people in ...
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    1 week ago