micky savage: Is it Phil Goff’s time?

Written By: - Date published: 10:14 am, October 16th, 2011 - 88 comments
Categories: act, don brash, greens, john banks, john key, labour, national, phil goff - Tags: , ,

micky savage at Waitakere News has a well-written post on the political events over the last few weeks and their impact on Phil Goff’s chances of forming a government. We will know if there has been a shift in the political landscape as the Rugby World Cup trails off (as it is already according to our readership figures) and the polls catch up to the present.

Two weeks ago I thought that Goff and Labour did not have a chance in this election.  National’s lead in the polls seemed too big, the country still seemed to be in love with John Key and Goff just was not getting the media cut through necessary to change hearts and minds.

I thought that Labour would limp through to the election, through a herculean effort get its core vote out, score in the low 30s and with the Greens being at about 8 % be well short of National.  Goff would then be deposed, would probably retire and be but a footnote in New Zealand’s history.  The main point of interest was if National (shudder) managed to get sufficient votes to rule in its own right, or if it would need the support of the minor parties to form a Government.

Then something happened.  The wheels started to fall off National’s well honed machine.

There was a double credit rating downgrade.  This was doubly damaging for National given Key’s measuring of the success of the 2009 budget by the fact that an alleged possible downgrade was apparently avoided.  The double whammy suggests that the credit rating agencies do not think highly of Key’s performance.

Then Key was caught out telling a lie saying that S&P said a downgrade would be more likely under Labour.  His defence was weak in the extreme and consisted of providing an anonymous email that did not back up what he alleged.  The media did not believe him.

National was forced to retreat on the proposed emergency Video Surveillance legislation when its proposal that the legislation have retrospective effect was widely panned by just about everyone.  Interestingly in Parliament Hone Harawira talked about a senior politician being caught out having an affair with a woman involved in the consumption of pseudoephedrine and one waits with interest to see who it is.  If and when the news comes out a major scandal will no doubt ensue.

Key in Parliament bizarrely blamed the Labour Party after a person with obvious mental health problems tried to throw himself onto the floor of Parliament from the public gallery.  Key then engaged in “Kapa o Pango” and on Parliament’s cameras clearly made a throat cutting gesture to the Labour side.

Goff responded superbly. His speech given immediately after the incident was one of the best I have seen.  He showed passion, grit and determination and the ability to react and think on his feet even after being confronted by a potential tragedy.

And then the Rena shipwreck happened.  The Government was shown to be hamfisted and slow in its response.  Four days of good weather was wasted so that an environmental tragedy is inevitable.  There is this feeling of unease that New Zealand’s “back office” is not up to scratch because of this Government’s efforts.

Over the past two years Goff has been hammered by the forces of the right, by the media and a meme has been constructed that he is not leadership material.  This attack has worked well, the population at large are indifferent to him and even amongst the ranks of the left he is treated with caution.  But it may be that his time has come.

And so Labour and Goff are suddenly back in the game and Key’s teflon coating looks chipped. If National does not get a majority then it will have to look to Act for support.

Act look very vulnerable. Brash and Banks have had a very public disagreement about decriminalising cannabis and none of the existing MPs are standing again. The leaks that have occurred ever since Heather Roy was deposed as deputy appear to be continuing.   And you can’t help but think that they are one major scandal away from oblivion …

So a resurgent Labour and a solid Green result could result in something that two weeks ago seemed almost impossible, a Phil Goff Prime Ministership. He may be one great campaign performance away from this.

88 comments on “micky savage: Is it Phil Goff’s time?”

  1. chris73 1

    More likely is that come election day you’ll be feeling dissapointed when National romps home

    • lprent 1.1

      I don’t think that they will be able to “romp home” that easily. Their support parties look like taking crushing rejections from the voters. I’m picking that Act will disappear from parliament and the Maori party will drop down to half its current size. Even Dunne’s grasp on his seat looks less than secure.

      I think that National will be the largest party in parliament. I also think that they will have a problem forming a government.

      Greens with National anyone? I think that both sides supporters will be appalled

      • alex 1.1.1

        lprent – Alas, it might be the only combination that actually makes up the numbers, barring a National/Labour coalition. As a probable Green voter, I have to say there are only a few circumstances in which I would be happy with a Green National govt. National would have to shut out ACT, not sell state assets, and thus probably put in a CGT, commit to the Green jobs policy and get serious about water quality, especially in the wake of the Rena destroying the fishing industry off the coast of Tauranga.
        More than that though, the Greens would have to stick to their guns throughout the term, continue to oppose offshore oil drilling, keep a lid on National’s tendencies towards social and judicial repression and calling for tax raises on the top 5%. If that happened, a National Green government would be fine by me, as policy wise they would pretty much be a Labour Green government.

        • Afewknowthetruth 1.1.1.1

          alex

          ‘ the Greens would have to stick to their guns throughout the term’

          That is something the Greens have repeatedly demonstrated they are incapable of doing. It is one reason why I won’t be voting for them. And the other is the Greenwash they promote.

          We are in a period of unprecendented global upheaval in which disaster-as-usual politics will result in bigger and more frequent disasters.

          I don’t see any party with the quality of leadershiip or integrity required to get us through what is coming: all I see is disaster-as-usual complacency and avoidance of the real issues [from all parties].

          • Reality Bytes 1.1.1.1.1

            This is all very true, but at least the Greens place value on true things of value, i.e. the environment, human rights & well-being, sustainability, the long-term etc. Better than rabid faith in fiat play money and ponzi schemes like the major two parties (National most-so of course). Greens are the lesser of three evils imo.

            I suspect if the Greens ever wield significant power they will be the most likely of the big three to push for a shift to something more akin to a resource based economy.

            At this stage they are trying to win over on-the-fence voters, gain influence and prove themselves, in order to shed their ‘looney/luddite/useless’ labels that the righties give them.

        • lprent 1.1.1.2

          Yep, but would the National voters be happy with that?

        • felix 1.1.1.3

          Agree with Lynn.

          If National can’t transfer public assets into private ownership – whether by selling them to their rich mates at bargain prices or by subsidising farmers to fuck up our environment for free – while keeping labour costs low through structural unemployment, then what’s the point?

        • Vicky32 1.1.1.4

          National would have to shut out ACT, not sell state assets, and thus probably put in a CGT, commit to the Green jobs policy and get serious about water quality, especially in the wake of the Rena destroying the fishing industry off the coast of Tauranga.

          All of those things would be on the far side of unlikely, to the point of being impossible, Alex. So the Greens would be best advised not to even attempt to work with National, they’d be in for a world of hurt…

          • Ari 1.1.1.4.1

            People keep on forgetting that it’s not up to senior MPs in a back room whether the Greens enter coalition with a given party. It has to be voted on at a party general meeting. If you think Green members would support a National Party that hadn’t changed incredibly from today, I’m not sure you really know very much about the sort of people who work within the Green Party.

            • Reality Bytes 1.1.1.4.1.1

              I think the smart approach would be to draw up a list of completely uncompromisable demands, and if a single demand is not met, then there is no coalition. And if later a single demand is not met, the coalition is dissolved immediately. The same approach should be applied to both Labor and National.

              No compromises, no bargaining, no selling out.

              If they did that and forced major concessions that ticked all their boxes, I can’t see any sensible hard-core Green having a problem with that, after-all it would be achieving their goals and getting the results they want.

        • Dan 1.1.1.5

          I think the greens made it pretty clear that national would have to change many of their underlying principles and policies for a coalition to be possible http://www.3news.co.nz/VIDEO-Green-Party-co-leader-Metiria-Turei-on-National-coalition-deal/tabid/370/articleID/228318/Default.aspx starting at 1.23…

      • felix 1.1.2

        Greens with National would be the end* of the Green Party, they’re already on a final warning I reckon.

        *obviously the party could still exist but without their activist base what would they be? A bunch of essentially non-political middle-class people who aren’t really that interested in organisation and would be just as happy voting National but quite like the look of that green sticker on their SUV.

        • burt 1.1.2.1

          That would be the same activist base that sold out to support the EFA having no issues with the requirement to have their name and residential address on protest material.

          Oh, hang on – that law was only for the likes of the EB and was never adhered to by the people who passed it – sorry… as you were… activism lives when it has the power to make rules that only others have to follow.

      • SMSD 1.1.3

        Lprent, I presume that you mean that Banks will lose Epsom, how do you think that will happen? I can’t see him losing it.

        • Colonial Viper 1.1.3.1

          Polls show that Banks will lose Epsom to National.

          National’s candidate could always withdraw at the last minute of course, which is an option that they have been thinking about very hard.

        • lprent 1.1.3.2

          There have been a few opinion polls in Epsom. They consistently show Banks at about half the electorate support of the token National candidate.

          This was the last one from the Herald

        • Lanthanide 1.1.3.3

          Even if Banks manages to win Epsom, he may end up being the sole member, or possibly him + Brash. But it seems obvious to most that Act is no longer Act, they’re the National reject party.

  2. alex 2

    If Goff is to be PM, his position would be very weak as about a third of his government would be from other parties. (Presuming the Greens get out the vote, Winston sneaks in and Hone holds his seat) I would like to see Phil hand over in his first term to one of the lefties in Labour (presuming there are still some) in order to hold that coalition together.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1

      …his position would be very weak as about a third of his government would be from other parties.

      And how would that make him weak?

      I would like to see Phil hand over in his first term to one of the lefties in Labour in order to hold that coalition together.

      WTF are you talking about?

      • alex 2.1.1

        Like it or not he isn’t the preferred PM. The idiot grinner remains much more personally popular unfortunately. That would suggest that he could still be in a position to be rolled, even if he won. I would personally like to see him hand it off gracefully to somebody in Labour more left wing, and thus more appealing to his coalition partners. Clarified my point?

        • Ari 2.1.1.1

          Most opposition leaders aren’t the preferred PM before they get into government. Honestly, “preferred PM” is a waste of time poll in the first place.

  3. higherstandard 3

    No.

  4. Afewknowthetruth 4

    The fact that National has been somewhat unsuccessful at lying to the nation does not make Goff any more attractive than he was. Labour is proffering tainted goods and a lot of people do not trust Goff or the the other ‘dinosaurs’ who have been around for far too long.

    National’s chances very much depend on who wins the rugby. Those interested in the future of NZ had better be praying for the ABs to lose by a decisive margin.

    • Morrissey 4.1

      Those interested in the future of NZ had better be praying for the ABs to lose by a decisive margin.

      Well, assuming they make the final, that might well happen. France obviously held everything back last night. If, however, they come in the frame of mind they were in against England, the All Blacks are history.

    • Vicky32 4.2

      National’s chances very much depend on who wins the rugby. Those interested in the future of NZ had better be praying for the ABs to lose by a decisive margin.

      I hear people saying this, but I seriously don’t understand the connection! It seems superstitious to me…

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.1

        I don’t really buy the “mood” aspect of the ABs winning or losing the RWC.

        However I do think that a loss tonight will mean that a hell of a lot of people will go off the RWC early, and start thinking about other things – like the future of this country and the elections.

      • felix 4.2.2

        The theory is that a voting public in a triumphant mood, proud of their country and feeling that all is right in the world will tend to favour an incumbent government.

  5. Josh 5

    I can’t see the Greens getting more than 8%, and I can’t see Labour getting over the mid-30s. I think the only way we will end up with a Goff-led Govt is if NZ First gets over 5%. Even then, it’s unlikely the Greens would want to work with Winston.

    • higherstandard 5.1

      Greens will get their highest vote ever …… you heard it here first.

    • lprent 5.2

      It is going to be tight forming a government for either side. Percentages matter less than seats

      I’m picking that National will be at or below 45% in votes (certainly where they seem to be headed as the election approaches looking at the betting on ipredict) so are going to be well short of the 61, Banks fails taking some right vote with him, Maori party gets 3 electorate seats, and Dunne scraps back in on his own again. I think that that oddball coalition won’t be able to govern without someone else.

      The greens do have this irritating tendency to never get as high in real votes as they poll. But I suspect that they will have a real problem if their voters (and MP’s like Delahunty) suspect that they might prop up National.

  6. burt 6

    I find it hilarious that the left might need Winston to get into govt. How well did that work out last time ?

    • If I was to make a prediction I would say that Peters will not make it and his support will tend to bleed Labour’s way.

      The election may turn on what happens to ACT. It’s brand is very toxic but National realises that it’s support may be vital if National is to resume power. But National is being affected by this toxicity and may have to cut ACT loose at some stage.

      • lprent 6.1.1

        … Peters will not make it and his support will tend to bleed Labour’s way.

        That is how it is looking. But I’d never rule that old bugger out, more lives than a cat.

        The election may turn on what happens to ACT. It’s brand is very toxic…

        I’ll say. It has become the NZ First of 2011. Finding people who will stick up for them outside the crazies in the blogs should be made a sport of collecting rarities.

        You see I finally put this up as the flood of posts subsided this morning. Means that I may be able to keep it at the head for a while.

        • Josh 6.1.1.1

          I think if Peters can maintain his core support, then he might be able to garner enough votes from ACT to make 5%.

          • lprent 6.1.1.1.1

            His core support appears to be about 3-3.5% this year (it tends to dwindle over time through natural attrition). I tend to believe the poll numbers for his core more than I do for most other parties simply because they are the ones who have listed landlines and are present to pick the phone up.

            That is close enough to strike for the 5%. All it takes is a good showing in the debates or a good news story or some consistent legwork around the traps over the last year or two. You can pick up floating vote relatively easily.

            Of course you can lose it pretty fast as well. You can guarantee that National have a dirty contingency plan for if it looks like happening, and there are quite a lot of the media personalities who’d really like to hammer the nails in on his coffin whilst ignoring the screaming from inside.

  7. Afewknowthetruth 7

    Whoever wins, the money-lenders and corporations will remain in control and will continue to write government policy until they can’t.

    The only question of real significance is: how quickly will the system collapse?

    http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-10-12/peak-oil-crisis-contagion

    The sequence of events is well known. Greece’s economy is imploding; the government can no longer pay its bills without continuing bailouts from the EU; at some point Greece will have to default on at least part of the $430 billion it owes to mostly European banks. Such a default would in turn do severe damage to the viability of many major European Banks which are already suffering a liquidity shortage from the slowing global economy. It is widely believed that these problems quickly would spread to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and now Belgium which are too large to ever be bailed out by France and Germany. Credit Default Swaps would kick in and, taken to the extreme, the world could conceivably not have much of a banking system left.

    What is most disconcerting is that many believe that unless all this is settled in the next few weeks, the deluge will begin. Obviously the Europeans do not want to see their financial system collapse and are scrambling to find a solution. EU leaders have given themselves a deadline of October 23rd to come up with a plan to settle the Greek debt question and then recapitalize the European banks that will have to take heavy losses on Greek and possibly other nations’ sovereign debts. One of the many issues involved in this crisis, of course, is how much of these heavy losses will be absorbed by the banks making the loans, and how much will be absorbed by the taxpayers of the better-off Eurozone states. London and Washington are putting heavy pressure on the EU to settle this issue, realizing the havoc that would ensue should there be even a partial meltdown of the EU banking system.

  8. randal 8

    Yes It is Phil Goffs time. the current government is a government of manques and carpetbaggers hand picked by a cadre of greedy’s who could never get elected if they showed their own faces on a billboard or put themselves up as candidates.
    they have foisted key and his cohort on us with only one plank and that is to steal the governments assets by legislative stealth.
    and if National stays then more bad luck will follow thema round.
    Napoleon selected his generals for good luck but when the luck ran out then, poof! it was all over.

  9. Emett 9

    Clear to see a turning point has occurred, such is the nature of all things being cyclic. The flip side of Mr Flop has been exposed on many levels in a short space of time in the critical run-up. Goff will rise as Key falls. Nats are going to be bitterly disappointed after their star combusts.

  10. Blue 10

    There are already signs that Rena has hurt National:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5786118/Rena-disaster-hurts-National-site

    Labour have always been facing an uphill battle with the media. Because the media are totally beholden to telling the public what they want to hear, it has been difficult to get any traction. People liked Key, they only wanted to hear positive stories about him, and they didn’t like Phil or Labour and didn’t want to read any stories about them.

    Just judging from what I’ve seen on social media lately I think the shift has occurred, and people are now receptive to criticism of Key.

    • Tombstone 10.1

      I’ll put this to you as well … maybe people who traditionally voted Labour didn’t want to admit that they felt guilty for voting in Key and what has become a long three years of absolutely nothing for this country? A kind of lack of willingness to admit that they got it wrong maybe? Well all is forgiven. Fresh election. You voted him and now you can do the right thing and vote the bastard straight back out. How I would love to see that happen and the look on Key’s face as he’s rejected by the people of this country who have woken up to his charade and turned on the lie that is Brand Key.

  11. Tombstone 11

    I see Goff as a decent, honest, hard working Kiwi who I could very easily sit down with and have a beer and a good laugh. Key I see as a typical money man. All the charm in the world but you know that deep down it’s all just an act. That if he needed to dispose of you to get ahead then he wouldn’t hesitate to do so. I trust Goff and I don’t often trust politicians but I think he has what this country needs and that is a leader that is humble and willing to work hard to make this country great again. And most importantly a leader that gives a damn about ordinary Kiwis and not just the 1% who continue to take ever larger slices of the pie at the expense of everyone else. He has my vote 100%.

  12. millsy 12

    The Rena disaster will see the Greens get the biggest gains.

    I still think National will win the election, and have made peace with that fact. We as a country are screwed.

    Labour’s position on public service cuts have pretty much made it clear that they probably need to cool their heels in opposition for another 3 years to sort themselves out.

    Winston Peters is the only one remotely capable of taking on John Key in the house. Which is why I have decided to give my vote to NZ First this year.

      • swordfish 12.1.1

        Utterly, utterly wasted vote.

        There’s no way Peters will top 5% or win an electorate. I mean, Christ !, you two might as well vote National, that’s essentially what you’re doing. Very disappointing.

        • Shazzadude 12.1.1.1

          Actually, it makes perfect sense if you’re worried about wasted vote. NZF will get 3% at the very minimum. This 3% increases the possibility of Key being able to win a sole majority. By tactically ensuring NZF get over the 5% mark however, that significantly reduces the ability for Key to get the sole majority.

          We saw it last election, people here discouraged voting for Winston, and what happened? Winston missed out by 0.93% of the vote, and Key’s 45% effectively became 48%, meaning forming a government was far easier for him. Instead, had people on the left encouraged tactical voting for Winston, Helen Clark might’ve had a chance at forming a government.

          • swordfish 12.1.1.1.1

            No, all it means this Election is that Winston will go from 2% to 4.5% and utterly waste 2.5% of the Centre-Left’s vote.

  13. Morrissey 13

    Five alcohol-fuelled predictions for last night, and one sensible one

    Watch this video. For a display of hive-mind and sheer purblind complacency, it takes some beating. Only Michael Jones, at the end, seems to have actually watched France play. Significantly he is the only non-drinker….
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/5788408/Inspired-Wales-to-keep-Dragon-juggernaut-rolling

    • higherstandard 13.1

      Eh what ? – if they had landed a couple of kicks they would have won with 14 players. If they had’ve had a full team for 80 minutes they would likely have won in a canter.

  14. TEA 14

    “micky savage: Is it Phil Goff’s time?”

    AAAAH HAAAAAA so funny.

    Labour and the greedy Greens are dead in the water off the east coast north island somewhere.

    2014 elections not far off now though !

    • fender 14.1

      To TEA (bagger?)…you show poor judgement in calling Greens “greedy”. Are you deaf, dumb and very blind? Or are you just senile?

    • Draco T Bastard 14.2

      Um, the only “greedy” parties are National, Act and possibly Libertarianz. All of them are only about boosting personal wealth and ignoring the rest of society.

  15. tc 15

    Anything is possible if the debates go phils way, it’s a big if with such a compliant and pissweak MSM running the show. Phil has to take control and land some hits. Could be role reversal from 08 where Clark lost it and smiley wavey looked credible , well you know credible to the people who believe bank ads.

    Best chance for people to see sideshow front the broken promises, explain the shithouse economic performance and generally weasel around like he always does in parliament and let the uncaring arrogance and general lack of knowledge make folks minds up from themselves.

    Take the strengths away, being brand key, and game is on. Are Blinglish and cunliffe going head to head, that’d be interesting if they are .

  16. randal 16

    anybody who still retains their marbles will remember how the freaks and geeks at media works and radio sport and the hair and teeth jobs at TV1 shrieked for about 6 months about how it was nationals TURN. Well they have had their turn and the whole country is much the worse for wear after their administration.
    so yes it is Phil Goffs time to do something positive and lead the country through the days ahead.

  17. Treetop 17

    To me this election is about Labour, National and the Greens getting the votes as all the other parties are not polling well. When times are economically tough people require certainty and I do not feel that the smaller parties have much to offer when it comes to their policies being listened to and carried out.

    I expect it will be a three way battle (Labour, National, Greens) and that the Greens will get the young/environmental vote.

    • It’s difficult getting the young to vote, one likely reason for Greens doing better in polls than elections.

      United Future has some strong environmental policies – that are more likley to be listened to in the likely coalition government.

      • Treetop 17.1.1

        Universities, polytechnics, secondary school students at year 7 need to be targeted to be enrolled. I would even visit the bars to target the young voter.

        United Future’s environmental policies are probably another Transmission Gully, (all talk and no action). I think Dunne’s luck has finally run out.

      • felix 17.1.2

        What environmental policies has Peter Dunne introduced to the house in his 87 years as an MP?

        • Pete George 17.1.2.1

          Last term:
          The 2005 Confidence and Supply Agreement between United Future and Labour included a provision that United Future would be involved in the development of a nationwide pest reduction strategy.

          Environmental issues are important in UnitedFuture’s campaign, including a very strong stance on finding alternatives for pest control so 1080 can eventually be banned. There is a strong candidate on this.

          In the past UF has had support from outdoors groups and that has been strengthened. Two candidates are touring the country promoting policies such as cleaning up waterways and protecting our outdoor heritage.

          http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/environment/
          http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/outdoor-recreation-and-conservation/

          • felix 17.1.2.1.1

            I can see why you didn’t quote the full paragraph:

            The 2005 Confidence and Supply Agreement between United Future and Labour included a provision that United Future would be involved in the development of a nationwide pest reduction strategy. As a result $200 000 was allocated in Budget 2007 for a consultation panel to be established to look at recreational and environmental issues surrounding deer, chamois, tahr and pigs. The panel is made up of environmental, recreational and scientific experts and intends to hold a public submission process before reporting back to Government in early 2008.

            Is that it? After all these years in parliament?

            Not exactly the record of a dedicated environmentalist, is it?

        • kriswgtn 17.1.2.2

          hahahah 2 funny

  18. This is just Mucky’s wishful thinking with huge red blinkers on. Yes, National have wobbled lately, but that doesn’t automatically mean Labour will pick up votes that have seen nothing to contradict their disillusionment with Labour’s performance and lack of rebuilding.

    There are more uncertainties than usual in this election, I think it’s difficult to predict likley outcomes. It will become easier but still fraught with guesswork once all the party lists are known and once the small parties have had an airing in the campaign.

    Talk of Dunne’s vulnerability is more wishful thinking or unwise believing of CC’s claims. There are numbers to support expecting no change in Ohariu. Like all the small parties what is uncertain with United Future is how the list and party vote will shape up. It’s impossible to judge that now.

    It’s looking late a fascinating election with a strong possibility of late changes.

    • mik e 18.1

      I predict says PG might get ten votes in North Dunedin his campaign entourage will vote for him.

    • Deadly_NZ 18.2

      Oh come on Dunne is nothing but a political whore. He’s go with anyone, as long as the money is right.

  19. Oligarkey 19

    meh – as AKKTT points out, the international money lenders will still control this country no matter whether National or Labour form the majority in the government. Phil Goff is committed to retaining a monetary and capital investment system that sees NZ milked of most its cream through financal debt, derrived from money that was fradulently printed by an overseas bank.

    Until you understand the international system of finance that dominates most governments around the world, you understand precious little about the world you live in. Voters don’t understand what they’re voting for, thus they vote blindly, and may as well not vote at all.

    That said, i think that the best way ahead for the country is to vote Green, because i think they’re the only party who have the mix of skill and will necessary to take the domestic economy forward rather than backwards.

  20. randal 20

    The simple fact of the matter is that national are carpetbaggers pure and simple.They are just jobbers who have had their “turn”.
    They will be tossed out because their final act (whadda pun) is to sell off the states assets and the cpountry will not put up with that.
    Whatever good they may have done and whatever goodwill they have accrued is not enough.
    the country needs a good strong government that is tough but fair and not a bunch of postmodernist wannabees like the presnt and soon to be departed national government.

    • Bored 20.1

      You are right about National and their vacuous little rich boy PM, they are colllectively a waste of space. Unfortunately they may still win because en-masse our (soon ex) middle classes are only interested in the party they are still indulging in. Sleep walking into massed class annihilation.

      The middle classes are blithely oblivious to where the economic meltdown that their debt loadings built on aspiration are headed; they still believe the shibboleths of growth, inflating your debt away and letting the future just take care of itself.

      What I have noticed is the answers when I ask after their children who are afloat in student debt with worthless degrees, “Oh Johnnny is trying to get a job as a DJ, he went to Radio school, theres not much work and he did a few days as a painter the other day”. Get used to it, there are no jobs under a Key National regime for the children of the ex middle classes. Or their parents. And the bank demands, a debt is a debt.

      • just saying 20.1.1

        True,
        But I have noticed a bit of a change.
        Yesterday, while talking to someone about the Rena debacle, she said: “I’ve really come to like Phil Goff”. We don’t generally talk politics because she’s pretty right-wing and very probably voted for Key. She used to like him.
        Intrigued (cos I’ve never heard anyone outside this blog say they like Goff) I asked her what she liked about him. She said she thought his ability had been hidden by his modesty and shyness, and these past couple of weeks she felt she’d seen a different side. At the same time the comparison with with her changing view of Key was obvious because she said Goff wasn’t “all show and no substance.”
        The swing-nat-vote whanau no longer openly praise Key, and admit to being disappointed in him (though not that they may have been wrong about him) I suspect there is a 50/50 chance that they won’t vote nat in November. This time last year they thought he was a top bloke.

        • Colonial Viper 20.1.1.1

          I suspect there is a 50/50 chance that they won’t vote nat in November. This time last year they thought he was a top bloke.

          There is a concept of ‘market momentum’ that Key will be very familiar with.

          FX. if Key’s stock has dropped significantly in the last 6 months from “top bloke” to “neutral/indifferent” that embodies a lot of negative momentum. And there is another 6 weeks for that negative momentum to increase its effect.

          I did think Key was mad for not choosing an earlier election date when he had such a strong hand, but it reinforces the fact that he is a professional gambler.

      • Colonial Viper 20.1.2

        And the bank demands, a debt is a debt.

        Yes. Interest bearing debt demands economic and monetary growth. There is no way you can pay back the principal plus interest otherwise.

        And since there is no actual real economic growth to be found, TPTB are playing ponzi/debt expansion/money printing games to create the illusion of growth.

      • M 20.1.3

        Bored, nicely put.

        The middle class doesn’t realise they’re already hollowed out by this government and the banksters. They don’t realise growth is no more and that their children will have drastically ringfenced options.

        I know of two young women who went to top private schools, got their degrees and are serving lattes in cafes.

        When I was about twelve I read Morris West’s ‘Children of the Sun’ about the slum dwellers in Naples and one of the passages I remember clearly was a young man who had a government job and would come home every night from his job, change his clothes and carefully sponge his suit. For him to buy new underwear he might have to go hungry.

        This I expect will become the middle class experience in short order and many of the things that people have come to expect as a right will be gone like an annual trip away somewhere, kids doing several extra-curricular activities, label clothing, gym memberships, the odd spot of retail therapy or even a meal out.

        I read the other day of how the middle class and even the well-to-do have been winnowed out in Phoenix, Arizona. Those living in the cheaper outer suburbs went down first and were foreclosed on and then the contagion spread to the inner suburbs and even the well off in the city centre were getting to do the foreclosure shuffle.

        • Colonial Viper 20.1.3.1

          The ‘middle classes’ have neglected their own political-economic education, and don’t even understand what it is supposed to mean being ‘middle class’, beyond some kind of vaguely aspirational mish mash of carefully marketed concepts.

          There are a lot of those middle class out there who are literally one pay check away from defaulting on a mortgage payment, who don’t understand why having done everything that they are supposed to, they and their kids are still struggling.

          Wake up people. You’re rats in a cage. Only the top 5% in NZ live well.

  21. wyndham 21

    Am I correct in assuming that National, one way or another, has upset the following voters? :

    Dunedin; over the railway workshops.
    Timaru; over Mr. Hubbard and wife.
    Christchurch; over sacking the environment council. Over the handling of the earthquake aftermath.
    West Coast; over Pike River
    Wellington; over mass dismissals (more to come) of public servants.
    Tauranga; over the Rena disaster.
    Auckland; over issues too numerous to mention.

    There are probably other areas and voter dissatisfaction that I’ve failed to mention.

    So why the polls where they are? Frankly, I don’t believe them.

    • Jasper 21.1

      Join up to the horizon poll. That captures a greater spread of voters than the landline phone polls that colmar brunton and reid research collect results from. Landline phones which tend to only be in households with a greater amount of disposable income.

  22. randal 22

    so felix when was it exactly that pd lost his teeth and it looks like the nats will p*ss all over jb in epsom.
    is he really 97?
    ha suddenly this election is fun!
    where is hunter s thompson when you need him?

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