Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed

113 comments on “Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed ”

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1. Cinny 1

   8 August 2016 at 6:55 pm

   That should always happen, may momentum continue. It’s time for a change.
2. pdm 2

   8 August 2016 at 7:07 pm

   This poll is hard to believe – I will wait for the next Colmar Brunton.
   • Dean Reynolods 2.1

     8 August 2016 at 7:13 pm

     Colmar Brunton is always skewed in favour of the Nats because CB ‘s methodology is to phone old farts at home during the day, on their landlines.
     • Muttonbird 2.1.1

       8 August 2016 at 7:17 pm

       What’s a landline?
       • Tiger Mountain 2.1.1.1

         8 August 2016 at 7:28 pm

         exactly, an endangered species these days, finally ditched mine and I am over 60 (just), none of my sons circle of early to mid 20s friends have had landlines since leaving home nor do many more transient older people

         the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone, so these figures are bad for the Nats given who is likely to respond, and bad for society in another way because many of the people whose lives the Key govt. is making a misery of are alienated and don’t enrol or vote or have a voice
         • mickysavage 2.1.1.1.1

           8 August 2016 at 9:42 pm

           Aye I have given mine up.
         • Leftie 2.1.1.1.2

           9 August 2016 at 12:27 am

           With less people having landlines, and with cellphones making political polling tricky, you are probably right Tiger Mountain, “the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone.”

           <a href="http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/cellphones-make-political-polling-tricky-2014070616#axzz4GiNuI0U3
           • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1.2.1

             9 August 2016 at 5:15 pm

             In general it shouldnt matter whether you are landline , mobile or carrier pigeon.
             What matters is the sample is broadly matching the population at large. That means they have to try a lot harder to get respondents in the 18 to 35 group.
             I understand they do this by only asking for this age group once they have their quota for the ‘oldies’.

             Dont read too much in the fact some people (like myself) dont have land lines anymore as the marvels of sampling can get around it
             • Leftie …

               9 August 2016 at 5:41 pm

               I think opinion polling methods are outdated, it hasn’t kept up with changes in technology.
       • mac1 2.1.1.2

         8 August 2016 at 8:04 pm

         What’s an old fart?
         • Muttonbird 2.1.1.2.1

           8 August 2016 at 8:10 pm

           The baby boomers with multiple investment properties squeezing the blood out of the young and the working class.

           They’re happy about it though.
           • mac1 2.1.1.2.1.1

             8 August 2016 at 9:01 pm

             Muttonbird, I thought you might have been referring to senior citizens who at the end of their lives, after fifty years of paying taxes, sit at home with no income but superannuation. You know, those old ones who protested against apartheid, the Bomb, Omega, the Vietnam war, Nuclear testing in the Pacific, racist rugby tours. You know, those ones who are still sleeping rough out on the streets, those ones who struggle to find housing cheap enough to rent, those who frequent the night shelters, who are abused by their children, and are having their social help hours cut, who sit at home in cold winters in under heated houses, and stay in bed for warmth. Those ones who are preyed on by unscrupulous dealers, scammers.

             You see, Muttonbird, there are those kinds of old farts, too.

             Read about them here. https://www.ageconcern.org.nz/files/valuingage.pdf

             Or here. http://superseniors.msd.govt.nz/out-about/volunteering/index.html

             They are the sort of old fart who is probably your parent or grandparent, older family member, neighbour. The ones who contribute ten billion dollars to the economy as volunteers, unpaid. You know the ones. Old farts. Useless oldies. Decrepit antediluvians.

             Old. You know, what you’re getting, right now. Tick. Tick. Tick.
           • D'Esterre 2.1.1.2.1.2

             8 August 2016 at 9:10 pm

             Muttonbird: “The baby boomers with multiple investment properties…”

             I’m calling that out as bollocks. Dear Leader is a boomer – but only just – and most of the speculators currently wrecking the Auckland housing market are much younger people than he is.

             I’m right at the sharp end of the baby boomer generation. Most of our cohort don’t have the dosh to buy investment properties; and good luck with borrowing money from a bank if you’re our age. Not happening…
         • Leftie 2.1.1.2.2

           9 August 2016 at 12:12 am

           “What’s an old fart?”

           National supporters.
           • mary_a 2.1.1.2.2.1

             9 August 2016 at 12:45 pm

             @ Leftie … We are a couple of working class, former strong unionist, still protesting old farts in this household, having been born just after WWII. No property investments, other than our own home, which is our refuge and not a money making commodity.

             But as for being being National supporters … most definitely not … never have been and never will be! I’d much rather be struck down dead, than vote for that fetid bunch of corrupt, crooked mobsters! And believe me there are many of our generation of the same mindset!
             • Leftie …

               9 August 2016 at 5:37 pm

               I would call national supporters old farts, but never you or people like you Mary_a, no matter how old you get !!!
               • mary_a …

                 10 August 2016 at 11:55 am

                 @ Leftie … Ah bless 🙂
         • Murray Simmonds 2.1.1.2.3

           9 August 2016 at 12:17 pm

           mac1:
           I’m one, But what’s a “cellphone”?
           • mac1 2.1.1.2.3.1

             9 August 2016 at 1:55 pm

             “But what’s a “cellphone”?”

             I’ve never been inside a cell, Murray Simmons. Reminds me of the man in Rotorua who thought from my Christchurch accent that I was an immigrant Pom. He asked how long I’d been ‘out’. I had to say to him that I had never been ‘in’.
     • Chromophore 2.1.2

       8 August 2016 at 8:37 pm

       Old farts with their landlines – how shocking!
       Racists, sexists, homophobes and ageists – all cut from the same cloth.
       • Chooky 2.1.2.1

         8 August 2016 at 8:59 pm

         many old farts with landlines wouldn’t dream of voting for jonkey nact I’ll have you know…they are old style NZ socialists

         this is great news…jonkey on the slippy slidey slope
     • Leftie 2.1.3

       9 August 2016 at 12:18 am

       +1 Dean Reynolods
     • mary_a 2.1.4

       9 August 2016 at 12:29 pm

       @ Dean Reynolods … well this old fart with a landline, is still waiting to be phoned to participate in a political poll! Never been called on landline or mobile and I don’t know of anyone who has been! So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!
       • Leftie 2.1.4.1

         9 August 2016 at 5:35 pm

         “So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!”

         Those on the list the National party sends them. Like National, the pollsters could easily make it up as they go along.
   • North 2.2

     8 August 2016 at 8:27 pm

     As much as he/she purports to discount it PDM must be REALLY distressed by this poll. This is only his/her eighth TS outing in eight years according to the search function. A last whistling in the dark as his/her GodKey’s clay feet wash away before the nation’s eyes.
3. Ad 3

   8 August 2016 at 7:18 pm

   !

   🙂
4. Sacha 4

   8 August 2016 at 7:34 pm

   why is anybody beyond media monkeys trying to make a story from a single poll?
   only trends count.
   • weka 4.1

     8 August 2016 at 8:39 pm

     It’s all part of the game 😉

     I haven’t seen an analysis of poll trends for a while though.
     • Michael 4.1.1

       10 August 2016 at 1:24 am

       That’s what really matters. A single poll could be rogue or record a blip. It’s the overall trend that matters. I do agree with posters on this thread who say that polling is becoming more inaccurate.
   • mosa 4.2

     8 August 2016 at 9:27 pm

     +100 Sacha
5. srylands 5

   8 August 2016 at 7:56 pm

   You remember you did this in 2013 a year out from the 2014 election.

   http://thestandard.org.nz/the-red-tide-rising/.

   The red tide went out again.

   You might want to wait before running such a bizarrely tabloid headline.
   • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1

     8 August 2016 at 8:12 pm

     Why don’t you take some time off from telling lies in the fraudulent reports you use to bludge taxpayers’ money and invent some lies about political donations instead.

     After all, if National loses you’re unemployable.
     • Chooky 5.1.1

       8 August 2016 at 9:02 pm

       +100 OAB…that is telling him
   • maninthemiddle 5.2

     9 August 2016 at 10:33 am

     The constant fluctuations between despair and triumphalism are hilarious. Please don’t keep pointing this out, it’s funnier than the two Ronnies.
   • Enough is Enough 5.3

     9 August 2016 at 11:03 am

     The comments throughout that post are funny in hindsight.

     Everyone spoke with such authority on what would happen over the next 12 months. Almost without fail every comment was proven to be wrong.

     What that says is the polls are a waste of fucking time, other than to act as a gloating contest between the two sides.

     If one side goes up in a poll, they treat it like they scored in a rugby game.
6. Colonial Viper 6

   8 August 2016 at 8:30 pm

   National moved within the margin of error. Labour moved within the margin of error. Greens moved within the margin of error.

   Logical conclusion: Key is stuffed?
   • Chris 6.1

     8 August 2016 at 9:10 pm

     And it’s just a matter of time until the election so let’s just relax because Labour’s gonna fix everything. Yay Labour!
   • Lanthanide 6.2

     8 August 2016 at 9:12 pm

     Yeah, seems a bit over-egged to me.
     • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

       8 August 2016 at 9:19 pm

       It seems a fairer conclusion would be: status quo holds – potential positive outlook for Oppo Block
       • mickysavage 6.2.1.1

         8 August 2016 at 9:44 pm

         No last few elections National has been at extraordinary levels and settled back. If they are at 45% now and settle back then anything can happen.
         • Colonial Viper 6.2.1.1.1

           8 August 2016 at 10:19 pm

           I’m sure there will be plenty of polling discussion over the next year.

           I haven’t shifted my view of LAB 25% +/-3%, partly because Labour was sitting at 32% to 35% when Cunliffe first took over and they were the ones who “settled back” as the election year proper proceeded.
           • Sigh 6.2.1.1.1.1

             8 August 2016 at 10:25 pm

             I thought Cunliffe was your hero?
             • Colonial Viper …

               8 August 2016 at 11:17 pm

               Cunliffe had the potential to be an outstanding PM. But IMO the condition of the Labour caucus, and the results of his longstanding Labour political conditioning, meant that he finally could not do what was required to win.
           • Chris 6.2.1.1.1.2

             8 August 2016 at 11:00 pm

             And with Little as leader may well be worse. Who’s your hero ain’t got nothin’ to do with it.
         • Leftie 6.2.1.1.2

           9 August 2016 at 12:16 am

           Yes MS, and lets not forget that National lost the Northland by election within months of the 2014 election.
           • Chris 6.2.1.1.2.1

             9 August 2016 at 12:57 am

             And how Labour actively set out to destroy Mana while at the same time handed the Maori Party to Key to help prop up his nasty regime of hatred. What does that say about the Labour Party’s ability to properly campaign let alone run the country?
             • Leftie …

               9 August 2016 at 1:13 am

               Even Hone admits teaming up with Dotcon backfired on him.

               The Maori Party were always going to go with John key, they have been happily propping up his nasty regime since 2008. A vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National, that hasn’t changed.
               • Chris …

                 9 August 2016 at 1:34 am

                 The Dotcom palaver was only one part of it. That doesn’t change how Labour put every ounce of energy it had into destroying Mana both in Te Tai Tokerau and by splitting the left vote in Waiariki that gave the Maori Party the one seat it needed to survive. The result was destroying a potential coalition partner on the one hand, while resuscitating a party that’d said it’d support Key and his mates on the other. Pretty smart strategy, huh?
                 • Leftie …

                   9 August 2016 at 1:43 am

                   Look at how many seats the Maori party have lost since 2008, Pita said they were being punished, the Maori Party know, and if it wasn’t for National’s cabinet club fundraiser dinners, would the Maori party have kept their one remaining seat? The Maori party are in parliament today because John key wanted the there.
                   • Chris …

                     9 August 2016 at 1:54 am

                     They wouldn’t have been there today if Flavell hadn’t won Waiariki. There was a chance Labour could’ve prevented that from happening if its strategy wasn’t to destroy Mana. Sykes and Waititi together got more votes than Flavell. The counter to that is that Mana cosying up to the Internet Party wouldn’t have made any difference. I disagree with that – hindsight’s a wonderful thing. What pisses me off is that Labour not only didn’t even try, they set out to destroy Mana.
                   • Leftie …

                     9 August 2016 at 2:12 am

                     Yeah sure Chris, everything is all Labour’s fault, National and the it’s partner the Maori Party can do no wrong and had nothing to do with anything whatsoever, they’re just innocent bystanders.
   • mosa 6.3

     8 August 2016 at 9:48 pm

     The only thing stuffed CV is the country.
     Anyway 45% for National 13 months from polling day looking at the trend is not oblivion territory as they STILL have their support built and retained scince 2008.
     • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

       8 August 2016 at 10:15 pm

       I agree and I think Key/National are still very well in the game. In fact, they haven’t even started rolling out their actual election year strategy yet.
     • Bearded Git 6.3.2

       9 August 2016 at 9:03 am

       The Nats are gone on 45%-Peters will take great delight in removing Key. He hasn’t forgotten 2008.
       • te reo putake 6.3.2.1

         9 August 2016 at 9:40 am

         My feeling too, Git. Winston will take his revenge for 2008 and also for the lies the Nat’s are spreading around the Northland electorate. The only potential stumbling block is his attitude to the Greens, which I can tell you is not currently positive*. But if Little can do a bit of manoeuvring and negotiation with both parties, it’s not hard to see a deal being stitched up. I can see two kinds of deal. One with all three parties in Government and one with only two parties and the third giving confidence and supply in exchange for policy gains and ministerial posts outside cabinet.

         *I met with Peters a few weeks ago on another matter and when the business part was finalised we did talk about politics in general. He made it clear he didn’t consider the Greens to be mature enough for Government. I believe he sees them as them as narrowly focussed on the environment and if that’s the case, I think he can probably be convinced by Shaw and Little that the Greens have actually broadened their agenda in recent years.
         • Crashcart 6.3.2.1.1

           9 August 2016 at 10:55 am

           Would Peter’s be willing to approach the Nat’s before the election privately and indicate that if Key were dropped as leader he would be more inclined to go with them after. That way he gets to be king maker and avoid working with the Greens whilst still sticking it to JK. He is a smart enough operator that I would not be surprised to see something like that happen.
           • Colonial Viper 6.3.2.1.1.1

             9 August 2016 at 11:00 am

             This is a discussion which would first occur amongst trusted lieutenants. And National would have to make the approach to NZF. The theoretical agreement I envisage would be Key stepping down 12-16 months after the election, and Winston being pushed back up to Deputy PM.

             Also two or three major policy concessions to NZ First.

             English as Acting PM until 2020.

             Still, I can’t see it ever working in practice.
           • Leftie 6.3.2.1.1.2

             9 August 2016 at 5:31 pm

             Crashcart, I doubt it if Winston Peters would ever approach the Nats and I doubt that he would go for that proposition either, because it has already happened. Winston Peters was saying during the 2014 election campaign that he was approached and asked if he would support National if John key wasn’t around. Winston didn’t support National.
   • Sigh 6.4

     9 August 2016 at 5:13 am

     And yet every time the Roy Morgan farts you’re on here screaming that It’s all over for Labour.
     • Leftie 6.4.1

       9 August 2016 at 5:47 pm

       Yeah, that’s true, he does do that.
7. Dale 7

   8 August 2016 at 8:32 pm

   Its up to Winston. And hell will freeze over before he ever works with the Greens. So National still win.
   • Muttonbird 7.1

     8 August 2016 at 8:49 pm

     I think he has a soft spot for Metiria Turei. Watch this space.
     • alwyn 7.1.1

       9 August 2016 at 5:05 pm

       Would that be because she is the only Party leader who doesn’t tower over him?
   • Chooky 7.2

     8 August 2016 at 9:03 pm

     hell would have to freeze over before Winston went with jonkey…and even then he wouldnt do it!

     the Left needs Winston to be King and King he will be of a Labour Green NZF coalition
     • weka 7.2.1

       8 August 2016 at 10:04 pm

       “the Left needs Winston to be King”

       Yeah, like a hole in the head. Let’s hope some centre lefties come to their senses.
       • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1

         8 August 2016 at 10:12 pm

         That’ll happen when some centre left parties come to their senses.
         • weka 7.2.1.1.1

           8 August 2016 at 11:38 pm

           Catch 22.
           • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1.1.1

             8 August 2016 at 11:52 pm

             “Catch 22” indicates a system or circumstance which on first glance is apparently there to achieve a certain thing, but on investigation is actually designed to make getting there completely impossible.

             What does that same about our centre left parties.
             • weka …

               9 August 2016 at 12:22 am

               The more centre lefties vote centre the more towards the centre centre left parties will go. That’s not even getting to the fact that Peters could go with Nact.
     • Crashcart 7.2.2

       9 August 2016 at 10:58 am

       Your statement points out a major flaw in hoping for Winnie propping up a left government. As said above NAT can ditch JK and form a government with NZF (based on current polling). Labour can’t ditch the entire Green party and do the same.
       • Enough is Enough 7.2.2.1

         9 August 2016 at 11:10 am

         Labour can ditch the Green Party, if Winston demands it.

         The Greens then have the option of giving confidence and supply to a Labour/NZF government; or

         refusing support and therefore leaving Winston with only one option which is the National/NZF government.

         The Greens hold the power as to who the next government is. The only problem is they won’t be in it.
         • b waghorn 7.2.2.1.1

           9 August 2016 at 5:59 pm

           That’s a new angle i hadn’t heard of, if it gets rid of the nats i could live with it.
   • Reddelusion 7.3

     9 August 2016 at 4:08 pm

     I think the whole who hates who is well over played, these guys are pragmatist and do what’s in their best interest, all the animosity is mostly a big game playing up to the press, end of the day most of them just want their perks and status as an mp to remain, that’s what drives them, national good is secondary, barring the likes of Jk who don’t really need to be their re ego enforcenent and financial gain
     • Chuck 7.3.1

       9 August 2016 at 5:53 pm

       This will be Winston’s swansong come 2017. He can count…better to be the second largest party in Government than third largest. More policy wins, looks good for NZF supporter base.

       Deputy PM (as long as its not too much hard work) knighthood and plum posting overseas after 2020.

       And the Nats have access to the best aged Scotch whiskey and Cuban cigars 🙂

       Of course this changes if the Nats don’t need Winnie.
       • srylands 7.3.1.1

         9 August 2016 at 6:01 pm

         That may prove correct. But remember that in the post brexit anti globalisation world nz first has much in common with the Greens. Paranoid anti markets anti free trade. Populist snake oil.

         Just saying that this long running narrative about Winston never working with the Greens.. Well I think there is common ground there
8. Rosemary McDonald 8

   8 August 2016 at 9:06 pm

   “..so no show without Winnie.”

   There wouldn’t BE a show without Winnie.

   He’s the original showman…plus he seems not to give a stuff what folk think of him.

   He just shoots off at the mouth end, seemingly without thought, and folk just love him.

   Someone should bottle what he has.

   ‘In the House’ will be a boring watch when he retires.

   I’d be working hard at making friends if I were Labour/Green!
   • Nck 8.1

     9 August 2016 at 8:32 am

     @Rosemary…. I think Winston says some good things and he has thought about it, example the other day on his critique on the housing crisis and Natzi motivation, drivers behind their in actions…… Winston, often provides straight statements that I can understand… I find a lot of other politicians are so ambiguous because they want to cover their ass.
9. swordfish 9

   8 August 2016 at 9:18 pm

   3 News/Newshub Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election

   L+G = Labour + Green support
   NZF = NZ First
   Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Lab+Green+NZF)
   Nat = National
   L+G/Nat = National’s percentage point lead over Lab+Green
   Govt = Government Bloc (Nat+Maori+ACT+UF)
   Right = Broad Right Bloc (Govt+Conservatives)
   O/G = Percentage point lead for Oppo over Govt or visa versa (Govt lead in Bold / Oppo lead in normal typeface)

   (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

   ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

   2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ………. 47 ……….. 11 ………. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

   Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election:

   2015

   RR (Jan) …………… 38 ……. 7 ………. 46 ……….. 50 ……….. 12 ………. 52 ……… 54 ………. 6

   RR (May) …………. 42 ……. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 46 …………. 4 ……….. 48 ……… 50 ……… 2

   RR (July) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ………. 3

   RR (Sep) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ……… 3

   RR (Nov) …………. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 50 ……….. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 49 ……… 50 ……… 1

   2016

   RR (May) …………. 42 …….. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 47 …………… 5 ………. 48 ……… 48 ……… 2

   RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ……….. 45 …………… 1………. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

   Combined Lab+Green, Oppo Bloc = up a little
   Nats, Govt, Broader Right = down a little
   Which together means = Nats’ lead over Lab+Green slashed to just 1 point. And the Oppo Bloc roughly doubles the lead it’s maintained over the Govt since May last year.

   As CV says, we’re in Margin of Error territory. But still – how can I put it ? – at least potentially encouraging. Most important of all: puts the last Roy Morgan in perspective.
   • Colonial Viper 9.1

     8 August 2016 at 9:35 pm

     Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.

     The thing to watch will be National’s reaction to how these numbers develop over the next few months. They will be working hard creating an election year plan to address all the deficiencies that they can identify.

     Key wants that 4th term.
     • mickysavage 9.1.1

       8 August 2016 at 9:47 pm

       But the deficiency is the housing crisis. And National for ideological reasons is totally unable to deal with it.
       • Leftie 9.1.1.1

         9 August 2016 at 12:32 am

         MS, That crucial point doesn’t seem to factor into Colonial Viper’s thinking.
         • You_Fool 9.1.1.1.1

           9 August 2016 at 7:26 am

           You both miss the possibility that National find a better way to look like they are doing something whilst actually doing nothing. Just have to make sure middle NZ and their kids think things are better, and find a way to demonise those on the streets enough to make people be less worried about their plight.
           • Leftie 9.1.1.1.1.1

             9 August 2016 at 5:54 pm

             Too late, that ship has already sailed. Everyone knows National is paying lip service whilst sitting on it’s hands. I doubt there are that many people out there who are prepared to believe National’s lies anymore.
       • Chuck 9.1.1.2

         9 August 2016 at 8:32 am

         I understand that this poll also asked the question “is the Government doing enough for housing?” 75% said NO.

         Yet National dropped only be the margin of error…

         Then we have Winston…I see a Sir Winston Peters in the future! I just can’t see Peters working with the Greens in Government. Best case for Lab/Gr is 50/50 chance he will go with them.
         • maninthemiddle 9.1.1.2.1

           9 August 2016 at 10:38 am

           Excellent point. Housing is painted as the governments achilles heel, but it doesn’t appear to be costing votes. And once Metiria’s plans for Aucklander’s house values sinks in, then who knows what heights the nats will go to.

           http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/309530/auckland-house-prices-need-to-drop-50-percent-greens
       • Stuart Munro 9.1.1.3

         9 August 2016 at 10:30 am

         I can’t help thinking that their ideology is in part a comforting validator for their actual incompetence.
     • swordfish 9.1.2

       8 August 2016 at 9:49 pm

       “Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.”

       Yeah, I noticed that – and at almost exactly the same time. We’re turning into a double-act.
       • Colonial Viper 9.1.2.1

         8 August 2016 at 10:10 pm

         Better to flank in a pincer than to go for the centre, I say.
   • Bearded Git 9.2

     9 August 2016 at 9:11 am

     My rolling average of the last 5 Roy Morgan’s:

     Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
     National 46.0

     Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
     Nats/MP/ACT 48.3
     • maninthemiddle 9.2.1

       9 August 2016 at 10:39 am

       …and the figures if you add NZF to National?
       • Leftie 9.2.1.1

         9 August 2016 at 5:59 pm

         Why do that? It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National. NZ First hasn’t supported National in almost 20 years, and Winston Peters, who supported a Labour government last time, hasn’t forgotten what John key and his National Party did, and the National government hasn’t mended any bridges in that regard either.
         • maninthemiddle 9.2.1.1.1

           9 August 2016 at 6:03 pm

           “It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National.”

           So it;s a given that he will support LabGreens?

           No, I thought not.
           • Leftie 9.2.1.1.1.1

             9 August 2016 at 6:13 pm

             Why did you ask me a question and then answer it yourself Maninthemiddle?

             My answer is, Why not? With proper negotiations there is no reason whatsoever that Labour, Greens and NZ First can’t work together, because I think they can. Winston Peters positioning re Greens has softened a lot over the last 11 years.
             • maninthemiddle …

               9 August 2016 at 8:53 pm

               So it isn’t a ‘given’ then. ‘Why not?’ is not a given.
               • Leftie …

                 10 August 2016 at 6:17 am

                 Are you being deliberately obtuse?
                 • maninthemiddle …

                   11 August 2016 at 11:53 am

                   No, I’m asking you why it is any more valid to include NZF with the Lab/Greens as it is with the Nats. You haven’t answered.
10. swordfish 10

    9 August 2016 at 1:06 am

    Direct Comparison with 2014 Election Results

    (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

    ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

    2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ….…. 47 ……….. 11 .……. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

    Latest Reid Research Poll

    RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ….….. 45 …….… 1…….…. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

    Diff ……………….. + 8 ……. – 1 ……… + 6 …….. – 2 ……. – 10 …….. – 2 …….. – 6 …….. – 8

    So, you know, next time one of our good Tory chums* tells us there’s been next to no movement since the last Election …

    Notice, incidentally, how the collapse of Colin Craig’s Conservatives has replenished and hence partially disguised both National’s and the Govt Bloc’s fall. (Nats and Govt down slightly / broader Right Bloc down heavily).

    * Speaking of our regular Tory Gentlemen callers, spare a thought for Fisiani who just a week ago asked: “When the next opinion poll shows support for National is over 50% will that be considered yet another rogue poll? How high will the figure have to go till the penny drops that most people are happy.”

    http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-31072016-2/#comment-1212162

    Alwyn, meanwhile, actually participated in this poll …
    “I was polled by Reid Research about a week ago.”

    http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-06082016/#comment-1214960
    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1

      9 August 2016 at 2:06 am

      I’d rather not spare a thought for Fisiani, lol.
    • Chuck 10.2

      9 August 2016 at 10:02 am

      swordfish, I find this bit of data the most interesting…

      “Asked if the Government was doing enough to control the housing market, 75 per cent of respondents said “no”, a drop of 1.4 per cent since the last poll in May. Twenty-two per cent thought enough was being done, up 2.5 per cent.”

      So 75% think the Nats are NOT doing enough…yet they only resister a modest fall.

      IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%…it would in theory also translate to an increase in party vote.
      • Muttonbird 10.2.1

        9 August 2016 at 10:31 am

        IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%.

        They would have to show leadership on housing – not going to happen.
        • Chuck 10.2.1.1

          9 August 2016 at 11:03 am

          I do agree about this – “They would have to show leadership on housing”.

          However – “not going to happen” hmmm…wishful thinking, this will be a key part of their 2017 campaign, just as it is the oppositions.

          Keep in mind the Lab/Gr partnership will also need to convince voters they have the solutions, and more importantly can deliver on them…
          • Muttonbird 10.2.1.1.1

            9 August 2016 at 11:57 am

            National don’t have the will to address the issue – they are petrified of spooking the horses. More people are becoming disenfranchised by National’s social policy fumbling. This is gathering pace and next winter some real discontent will set in.

            Labour just needs to show these people someone at least is listening, offer them some hope, and then mobilise them to the polling booth. National of course will do as little as possible and try to dress it up as action.
            • Leftie 10.2.1.1.1.1

              9 August 2016 at 6:03 pm

              Heaps of plus 1’s on your comments Muttonbird.
        • mary_a 10.2.1.2

          9 August 2016 at 1:21 pm

          @ Muttonbird (10.2.1) … 100%
11. Gristle 11

    9 August 2016 at 7:02 am

    With the manipulation of voters to get UF and ACT a seat each, are we seeing a continual parliament of 122? Does this manipulation then give National an advantage so each National party vote is worth slightly more than each Labour Party vote?

    If there is should Labour follow and throw a seat to Mana and regain parity of party vote values?
    • alwyn 11.1

      9 August 2016 at 7:01 pm

      We don’t have 122 MPs. We have 121.
12. Garibaldi 12

    9 August 2016 at 10:01 am

    OK so there’s been a small shift in one poll. Why all the crowing? According to the poll only 10% want Little. I still think the left has to break from neoliberalism instead of fluffing around in the middle and being, in essence, National lite. Neoliberalism was brought in by Labour. As a doctrine it has failed(as we knew it would) and it is time to dump it and get back to basic decency. Little & co will not beat Key & co under his current course. When Key starts rolling out tax cuts whilst his compliant media backs him to the hilt( along with Crosby / Textor shenanigans ) he will walk all over us. Their dirty tricks machine will squash us, as per usual. Crikey ,when Dirty Politics came out last election I thought “neat – it’s all over for Key ” and look what happened. I’ m not trying to be negative ; I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ the left seems to be.
    • xanthe 12.1

      9 August 2016 at 10:33 am

      +1
      I read that poll as neoliberal agenda: %100, rationalism: margin of error, The only “result” of that poll like the others before it is number of disenfranchised is up
    • Robert Guyton 12.2

      9 August 2016 at 12:43 pm

      @Garabaldi – “I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ effectively deceived the left NZ voter seems to be is.”

      Fify
13. Grantoc 13

    9 August 2016 at 8:01 pm

    TRP

    You’re getting a bit carried away with your headline and I suspect you know it. Maybe you’re trying to rev up the troops; give them something to be motivated by?

    I’m sure you know as well as the next person that one poll by itself is relatively insignificant. What counts is the pattern that emerges when several polls over time are taken into consideration.

    Go and have a look at Nate Silver’s 538 site and check out the methodology he is using to predict the outcomes of the US presidential election. It will show you that one poll in its own right is just one data point of no special significance in the overall scheme of things.
    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      9 August 2016 at 8:09 pm

      I note that the first sentence of the article refers to a poll with very different results, and that you can only fault the headline.
14. save nz 14

    9 August 2016 at 9:16 pm

    Little is doing a good job as leader. He has taken a middle approach and working with other parties and it is working.

    He has an alliance with the Greens.
    He has said no to TPP.
    He has said he will build more state houses using Housing dividends.
    He has questioned whether we need so many migrant chefs in NZ.
    He has worked with Winston Peters to get Northland from National.
    He has united Labour.
    He has released his tax returns after the Panama papers.
    He has said he will get rid of our offshore tax haven status.
    He has questioned why Scenic hotels is getting to much aid to build conference centers in Nuie and ‘surprisingly’ their owner is a big donor of the National party before they got the aid money, Oh gosh, just when we thought our development aid was supposed to go to cyclone victims in the pacific we find out it goes to private hotel chains and it gets worse….
    • Leftie 14.1

      10 August 2016 at 6:19 am

      +1 Save NZ.

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