Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 8th, 2016 - 113 comments
Categories: Economy, greens, labour, Media, Politics, polls, tv - Tags: , ,

After the Roy Morgan rogue, normal service has been resumed. The alliance between Labour and the Greens continues to gain traction and the third term blues have clearly set in for DunnoKeyo.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll has the Nats on 45.1 percent, a drop of 1.9 percent. Labour/Green has gained most of that, jumping 1.8 percent up to 44.2 percent. NZ First are on 8%, so no show without Winnie.

Labour leader Andrew Little reckons the result is because people realise National haven’t got a handle on the housing crisis.

“People can’t get a decent house, can’t even rent a house and they’re saying, this government’s run out of answers. And they’re looking to parties that do have a comprehensive plan” .

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei agrees:

“New Zealanders are right. National is failing us when it comes to housing. They have no new ideas, they won’t build more houses, they’re not taking the crisis seriously.

“New Zealand families deserve better.”

The two party tie up is working out beautifully. Good job, Labour. Good job, Greens.

113 comments on “Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed ”

  1. Cinny 1

    That should always happen, may momentum continue. It’s time for a change.

  2. pdm 2

    This poll is hard to believe – I will wait for the next Colmar Brunton.

    • Dean Reynolods 2.1

      Colmar Brunton is always skewed in favour of the Nats because CB ‘s methodology is to phone old farts at home during the day, on their landlines.

      • Muttonbird 2.1.1

        What’s a landline?

        • Tiger Mountain

          exactly, an endangered species these days, finally ditched mine and I am over 60 (just), none of my sons circle of early to mid 20s friends have had landlines since leaving home nor do many more transient older people

          the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone, so these figures are bad for the Nats given who is likely to respond, and bad for society in another way because many of the people whose lives the Key govt. is making a misery of are alienated and don’t enrol or vote or have a voice

          • mickysavage

            Aye I have given mine up.

          • Leftie

            With less people having landlines, and with cellphones making political polling tricky, you are probably right Tiger Mountain, “the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone.”

            <a href="

            • dukeofurl

              In general it shouldnt matter whether you are landline , mobile or carrier pigeon.
              What matters is the sample is broadly matching the population at large. That means they have to try a lot harder to get respondents in the 18 to 35 group.
              I understand they do this by only asking for this age group once they have their quota for the ‘oldies’.

              Dont read too much in the fact some people (like myself) dont have land lines anymore as the marvels of sampling can get around it

              • Leftie

                I think opinion polling methods are outdated, it hasn’t kept up with changes in technology.

        • mac1

          What’s an old fart?

          • Muttonbird

            The baby boomers with multiple investment properties squeezing the blood out of the young and the working class.

            They’re happy about it though.

            • mac1

              Muttonbird, I thought you might have been referring to senior citizens who at the end of their lives, after fifty years of paying taxes, sit at home with no income but superannuation. You know, those old ones who protested against apartheid, the Bomb, Omega, the Vietnam war, Nuclear testing in the Pacific, racist rugby tours. You know, those ones who are still sleeping rough out on the streets, those ones who struggle to find housing cheap enough to rent, those who frequent the night shelters, who are abused by their children, and are having their social help hours cut, who sit at home in cold winters in under heated houses, and stay in bed for warmth. Those ones who are preyed on by unscrupulous dealers, scammers.

              You see, Muttonbird, there are those kinds of old farts, too.

              Read about them here.

              Or here.

              They are the sort of old fart who is probably your parent or grandparent, older family member, neighbour. The ones who contribute ten billion dollars to the economy as volunteers, unpaid. You know the ones. Old farts. Useless oldies. Decrepit antediluvians.

              Old. You know, what you’re getting, right now. Tick. Tick. Tick.

            • D'Esterre

              Muttonbird: “The baby boomers with multiple investment properties…”

              I’m calling that out as bollocks. Dear Leader is a boomer – but only just – and most of the speculators currently wrecking the Auckland housing market are much younger people than he is.

              I’m right at the sharp end of the baby boomer generation. Most of our cohort don’t have the dosh to buy investment properties; and good luck with borrowing money from a bank if you’re our age. Not happening…

          • Leftie

            “What’s an old fart?”

            National supporters.

            • mary_a

              @ Leftie … We are a couple of working class, former strong unionist, still protesting old farts in this household, having been born just after WWII. No property investments, other than our own home, which is our refuge and not a money making commodity.

              But as for being being National supporters … most definitely not … never have been and never will be! I’d much rather be struck down dead, than vote for that fetid bunch of corrupt, crooked mobsters! And believe me there are many of our generation of the same mindset!

          • Murray Simmonds

            I’m one, But what’s a “cellphone”?

            • mac1

              “But what’s a “cellphone”?”

              I’ve never been inside a cell, Murray Simmons. Reminds me of the man in Rotorua who thought from my Christchurch accent that I was an immigrant Pom. He asked how long I’d been ‘out’. I had to say to him that I had never been ‘in’.

      • Chromophore 2.1.2

        Old farts with their landlines – how shocking!
        Racists, sexists, homophobes and ageists – all cut from the same cloth.

        • Chooky

          many old farts with landlines wouldn’t dream of voting for jonkey nact I’ll have you know…they are old style NZ socialists

          this is great news…jonkey on the slippy slidey slope

      • Leftie 2.1.3

        +1 Dean Reynolods

      • mary_a 2.1.4

        @ Dean Reynolods … well this old fart with a landline, is still waiting to be phoned to participate in a political poll! Never been called on landline or mobile and I don’t know of anyone who has been! So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!

        • Leftie

          “So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!”

          Those on the list the National party sends them. Like National, the pollsters could easily make it up as they go along.

    • North 2.2

      As much as he/she purports to discount it PDM must be REALLY distressed by this poll. This is only his/her eighth TS outing in eight years according to the search function. A last whistling in the dark as his/her GodKey’s clay feet wash away before the nation’s eyes.

  3. Sacha 4

    why is anybody beyond media monkeys trying to make a story from a single poll?
    only trends count.

    • weka 4.1

      It’s all part of the game 😉

      I haven’t seen an analysis of poll trends for a while though.

      • Michael 4.1.1

        That’s what really matters. A single poll could be rogue or record a blip. It’s the overall trend that matters. I do agree with posters on this thread who say that polling is becoming more inaccurate.

    • mosa 4.2

      +100 Sacha

  4. srylands 5

    You remember you did this in 2013 a year out from the 2014 election.

    The red tide went out again.

    You might want to wait before running such a bizarrely tabloid headline.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1

      Why don’t you take some time off from telling lies in the fraudulent reports you use to bludge taxpayers’ money and invent some lies about political donations instead.

      After all, if National loses you’re unemployable.

    • maninthemiddle 5.2

      The constant fluctuations between despair and triumphalism are hilarious. Please don’t keep pointing this out, it’s funnier than the two Ronnies.

    • Enough is Enough 5.3

      The comments throughout that post are funny in hindsight.

      Everyone spoke with such authority on what would happen over the next 12 months. Almost without fail every comment was proven to be wrong.

      What that says is the polls are a waste of fucking time, other than to act as a gloating contest between the two sides.

      If one side goes up in a poll, they treat it like they scored in a rugby game.

  5. Colonial Viper 6

    National moved within the margin of error. Labour moved within the margin of error. Greens moved within the margin of error.

    Logical conclusion: Key is stuffed?

    • Chris 6.1

      And it’s just a matter of time until the election so let’s just relax because Labour’s gonna fix everything. Yay Labour!

    • Lanthanide 6.2

      Yeah, seems a bit over-egged to me.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

        It seems a fairer conclusion would be: status quo holds – potential positive outlook for Oppo Block

        • mickysavage

          No last few elections National has been at extraordinary levels and settled back. If they are at 45% now and settle back then anything can happen.

          • Colonial Viper

            I’m sure there will be plenty of polling discussion over the next year.

            I haven’t shifted my view of LAB 25% +/-3%, partly because Labour was sitting at 32% to 35% when Cunliffe first took over and they were the ones who “settled back” as the election year proper proceeded.

            • Sigh

              I thought Cunliffe was your hero?

              • Colonial Viper

                Cunliffe had the potential to be an outstanding PM. But IMO the condition of the Labour caucus, and the results of his longstanding Labour political conditioning, meant that he finally could not do what was required to win.

            • Chris

              And with Little as leader may well be worse. Who’s your hero ain’t got nothin’ to do with it.

          • Leftie

            Yes MS, and lets not forget that National lost the Northland by election within months of the 2014 election.

            • Chris

              And how Labour actively set out to destroy Mana while at the same time handed the Maori Party to Key to help prop up his nasty regime of hatred. What does that say about the Labour Party’s ability to properly campaign let alone run the country?

              • Leftie

                Even Hone admits teaming up with Dotcon backfired on him.

                The Maori Party were always going to go with John key, they have been happily propping up his nasty regime since 2008. A vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National, that hasn’t changed.

                • Chris

                  The Dotcom palaver was only one part of it. That doesn’t change how Labour put every ounce of energy it had into destroying Mana both in Te Tai Tokerau and by splitting the left vote in Waiariki that gave the Maori Party the one seat it needed to survive. The result was destroying a potential coalition partner on the one hand, while resuscitating a party that’d said it’d support Key and his mates on the other. Pretty smart strategy, huh?

                  • Leftie

                    Look at how many seats the Maori party have lost since 2008, Pita said they were being punished, the Maori Party know, and if it wasn’t for National’s cabinet club fundraiser dinners, would the Maori party have kept their one remaining seat? The Maori party are in parliament today because John key wanted the there.

                    • Chris

                      They wouldn’t have been there today if Flavell hadn’t won Waiariki. There was a chance Labour could’ve prevented that from happening if its strategy wasn’t to destroy Mana. Sykes and Waititi together got more votes than Flavell. The counter to that is that Mana cosying up to the Internet Party wouldn’t have made any difference. I disagree with that – hindsight’s a wonderful thing. What pisses me off is that Labour not only didn’t even try, they set out to destroy Mana.

                    • Leftie

                      Yeah sure Chris, everything is all Labour’s fault, National and the it’s partner the Maori Party can do no wrong and had nothing to do with anything whatsoever, they’re just innocent bystanders.

    • mosa 6.3

      The only thing stuffed CV is the country.
      Anyway 45% for National 13 months from polling day looking at the trend is not oblivion territory as they STILL have their support built and retained scince 2008.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

        I agree and I think Key/National are still very well in the game. In fact, they haven’t even started rolling out their actual election year strategy yet.

      • Bearded Git 6.3.2

        The Nats are gone on 45%-Peters will take great delight in removing Key. He hasn’t forgotten 2008.

        • te reo putake

          My feeling too, Git. Winston will take his revenge for 2008 and also for the lies the Nat’s are spreading around the Northland electorate. The only potential stumbling block is his attitude to the Greens, which I can tell you is not currently positive*. But if Little can do a bit of manoeuvring and negotiation with both parties, it’s not hard to see a deal being stitched up. I can see two kinds of deal. One with all three parties in Government and one with only two parties and the third giving confidence and supply in exchange for policy gains and ministerial posts outside cabinet.

          *I met with Peters a few weeks ago on another matter and when the business part was finalised we did talk about politics in general. He made it clear he didn’t consider the Greens to be mature enough for Government. I believe he sees them as them as narrowly focussed on the environment and if that’s the case, I think he can probably be convinced by Shaw and Little that the Greens have actually broadened their agenda in recent years.

          • Crashcart

            Would Peter’s be willing to approach the Nat’s before the election privately and indicate that if Key were dropped as leader he would be more inclined to go with them after. That way he gets to be king maker and avoid working with the Greens whilst still sticking it to JK. He is a smart enough operator that I would not be surprised to see something like that happen.

            • Colonial Viper

              This is a discussion which would first occur amongst trusted lieutenants. And National would have to make the approach to NZF. The theoretical agreement I envisage would be Key stepping down 12-16 months after the election, and Winston being pushed back up to Deputy PM.

              Also two or three major policy concessions to NZ First.

              English as Acting PM until 2020.

              Still, I can’t see it ever working in practice.

            • Leftie

              Crashcart, I doubt it if Winston Peters would ever approach the Nats and I doubt that he would go for that proposition either, because it has already happened. Winston Peters was saying during the 2014 election campaign that he was approached and asked if he would support National if John key wasn’t around. Winston didn’t support National.

    • Sigh 6.4

      And yet every time the Roy Morgan farts you’re on here screaming that It’s all over for Labour.

  6. Dale 7

    Its up to Winston. And hell will freeze over before he ever works with the Greens. So National still win.

    • Muttonbird 7.1

      I think he has a soft spot for Metiria Turei. Watch this space.

    • Chooky 7.2

      hell would have to freeze over before Winston went with jonkey…and even then he wouldnt do it!

      the Left needs Winston to be King and King he will be of a Labour Green NZF coalition

      • weka 7.2.1

        “the Left needs Winston to be King”

        Yeah, like a hole in the head. Let’s hope some centre lefties come to their senses.

        • Colonial Viper

          That’ll happen when some centre left parties come to their senses.

          • weka

            Catch 22.

            • Colonial Viper

              “Catch 22” indicates a system or circumstance which on first glance is apparently there to achieve a certain thing, but on investigation is actually designed to make getting there completely impossible.

              What does that same about our centre left parties.

              • weka

                The more centre lefties vote centre the more towards the centre centre left parties will go. That’s not even getting to the fact that Peters could go with Nact.

      • Crashcart 7.2.2

        Your statement points out a major flaw in hoping for Winnie propping up a left government. As said above NAT can ditch JK and form a government with NZF (based on current polling). Labour can’t ditch the entire Green party and do the same.

        • Enough is Enough

          Labour can ditch the Green Party, if Winston demands it.

          The Greens then have the option of giving confidence and supply to a Labour/NZF government; or

          refusing support and therefore leaving Winston with only one option which is the National/NZF government.

          The Greens hold the power as to who the next government is. The only problem is they won’t be in it.

          • b waghorn

            That’s a new angle i hadn’t heard of, if it gets rid of the nats i could live with it.

    • Reddelusion 7.3

      I think the whole who hates who is well over played, these guys are pragmatist and do what’s in their best interest, all the animosity is mostly a big game playing up to the press, end of the day most of them just want their perks and status as an mp to remain, that’s what drives them, national good is secondary, barring the likes of Jk who don’t really need to be their re ego enforcenent and financial gain

      • Chuck 7.3.1

        This will be Winston’s swansong come 2017. He can count…better to be the second largest party in Government than third largest. More policy wins, looks good for NZF supporter base.

        Deputy PM (as long as its not too much hard work) knighthood and plum posting overseas after 2020.

        And the Nats have access to the best aged Scotch whiskey and Cuban cigars 🙂

        Of course this changes if the Nats don’t need Winnie.

        • srylands

          That may prove correct. But remember that in the post brexit anti globalisation world nz first has much in common with the Greens. Paranoid anti markets anti free trade. Populist snake oil.

          Just saying that this long running narrative about Winston never working with the Greens.. Well I think there is common ground there

  7. Rosemary McDonald 8

    “ no show without Winnie.”

    There wouldn’t BE a show without Winnie.

    He’s the original showman…plus he seems not to give a stuff what folk think of him.

    He just shoots off at the mouth end, seemingly without thought, and folk just love him.

    Someone should bottle what he has.

    ‘In the House’ will be a boring watch when he retires.

    I’d be working hard at making friends if I were Labour/Green!

    • Nck 8.1

      @Rosemary…. I think Winston says some good things and he has thought about it, example the other day on his critique on the housing crisis and Natzi motivation, drivers behind their in actions…… Winston, often provides straight statements that I can understand… I find a lot of other politicians are so ambiguous because they want to cover their ass.

  8. swordfish 9

    3 News/Newshub Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election

    L+G = Labour + Green support
    NZF = NZ First
    Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Lab+Green+NZF)
    Nat = National
    L+G/Nat = National’s percentage point lead over Lab+Green
    Govt = Government Bloc (Nat+Maori+ACT+UF)
    Right = Broad Right Bloc (Govt+Conservatives)
    O/G = Percentage point lead for Oppo over Govt or visa versa (Govt lead in Bold / Oppo lead in normal typeface)

    (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

    ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

    2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ………. 47 ……….. 11 ………. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

    Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election:


    RR (Jan) …………… 38 ……. 7 ………. 46 ……….. 50 ……….. 12 ………. 52 ……… 54 ………. 6

    RR (May) …………. 42 ……. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 46 …………. 4 ……….. 48 ……… 50 ……… 2

    RR (July) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ………. 3

    RR (Sep) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ……… 3

    RR (Nov) …………. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 50 ……….. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 49 ……… 50 ……… 1


    RR (May) …………. 42 …….. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 47 …………… 5 ………. 48 ……… 48 ……… 2

    RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ……….. 45 …………… 1………. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

    Combined Lab+Green, Oppo Bloc = up a little
    Nats, Govt, Broader Right = down a little
    Which together means = Nats’ lead over Lab+Green slashed to just 1 point. And the Oppo Bloc roughly doubles the lead it’s maintained over the Govt since May last year.

    As CV says, we’re in Margin of Error territory. But still – how can I put it ? – at least potentially encouraging. Most important of all: puts the last Roy Morgan in perspective.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.

      The thing to watch will be National’s reaction to how these numbers develop over the next few months. They will be working hard creating an election year plan to address all the deficiencies that they can identify.

      Key wants that 4th term.

      • mickysavage 9.1.1

        But the deficiency is the housing crisis. And National for ideological reasons is totally unable to deal with it.

        • Leftie

          MS, That crucial point doesn’t seem to factor into Colonial Viper’s thinking.

          • You_Fool

            You both miss the possibility that National find a better way to look like they are doing something whilst actually doing nothing. Just have to make sure middle NZ and their kids think things are better, and find a way to demonise those on the streets enough to make people be less worried about their plight.

            • Leftie

              Too late, that ship has already sailed. Everyone knows National is paying lip service whilst sitting on it’s hands. I doubt there are that many people out there who are prepared to believe National’s lies anymore.

        • Chuck

          I understand that this poll also asked the question “is the Government doing enough for housing?” 75% said NO.

          Yet National dropped only be the margin of error…

          Then we have Winston…I see a Sir Winston Peters in the future! I just can’t see Peters working with the Greens in Government. Best case for Lab/Gr is 50/50 chance he will go with them.

        • Stuart Munro

          I can’t help thinking that their ideology is in part a comforting validator for their actual incompetence.

      • swordfish 9.1.2

        “Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.”

        Yeah, I noticed that – and at almost exactly the same time. We’re turning into a double-act.

    • Bearded Git 9.2

      My rolling average of the last 5 Roy Morgan’s:

      Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
      National 46.0

      Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
      Nats/MP/ACT 48.3

      • maninthemiddle 9.2.1

        …and the figures if you add NZF to National?

        • Leftie

          Why do that? It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National. NZ First hasn’t supported National in almost 20 years, and Winston Peters, who supported a Labour government last time, hasn’t forgotten what John key and his National Party did, and the National government hasn’t mended any bridges in that regard either.

          • maninthemiddle

            “It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National.”

            So it;s a given that he will support LabGreens?

            No, I thought not.

            • Leftie

              Why did you ask me a question and then answer it yourself Maninthemiddle?

              My answer is, Why not? With proper negotiations there is no reason whatsoever that Labour, Greens and NZ First can’t work together, because I think they can. Winston Peters positioning re Greens has softened a lot over the last 11 years.

  9. swordfish 10

    Direct Comparison with 2014 Election Results

    (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

    ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

    2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ….…. 47 ……….. 11 .……. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

    Latest Reid Research Poll

    RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ….….. 45 …….… 1…….…. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

    Diff ……………….. + 8 ……. – 1 ……… + 6 …….. – 2 ……. – 10 …….. – 2 …….. – 6 …….. – 8

    So, you know, next time one of our good Tory chums* tells us there’s been next to no movement since the last Election …

    Notice, incidentally, how the collapse of Colin Craig’s Conservatives has replenished and hence partially disguised both National’s and the Govt Bloc’s fall. (Nats and Govt down slightly / broader Right Bloc down heavily).

    * Speaking of our regular Tory Gentlemen callers, spare a thought for Fisiani who just a week ago asked: “When the next opinion poll shows support for National is over 50% will that be considered yet another rogue poll? How high will the figure have to go till the penny drops that most people are happy.”

    Alwyn, meanwhile, actually participated in this poll …
    “I was polled by Reid Research about a week ago.”

    • I’d rather not spare a thought for Fisiani, lol.

    • Chuck 10.2

      swordfish, I find this bit of data the most interesting…

      “Asked if the Government was doing enough to control the housing market, 75 per cent of respondents said “no”, a drop of 1.4 per cent since the last poll in May. Twenty-two per cent thought enough was being done, up 2.5 per cent.”

      So 75% think the Nats are NOT doing enough…yet they only resister a modest fall.

      IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%…it would in theory also translate to an increase in party vote.

      • Muttonbird 10.2.1

        IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%.

        They would have to show leadership on housing – not going to happen.

        • Chuck

          I do agree about this – “They would have to show leadership on housing”.

          However – “not going to happen” hmmm…wishful thinking, this will be a key part of their 2017 campaign, just as it is the oppositions.

          Keep in mind the Lab/Gr partnership will also need to convince voters they have the solutions, and more importantly can deliver on them…

          • Muttonbird

            National don’t have the will to address the issue – they are petrified of spooking the horses. More people are becoming disenfranchised by National’s social policy fumbling. This is gathering pace and next winter some real discontent will set in.

            Labour just needs to show these people someone at least is listening, offer them some hope, and then mobilise them to the polling booth. National of course will do as little as possible and try to dress it up as action.

        • mary_a

          @ Muttonbird (10.2.1) … 100%

  10. Gristle 11

    With the manipulation of voters to get UF and ACT a seat each, are we seeing a continual parliament of 122? Does this manipulation then give National an advantage so each National party vote is worth slightly more than each Labour Party vote?

    If there is should Labour follow and throw a seat to Mana and regain parity of party vote values?

  11. Garibaldi 12

    OK so there’s been a small shift in one poll. Why all the crowing? According to the poll only 10% want Little. I still think the left has to break from neoliberalism instead of fluffing around in the middle and being, in essence, National lite. Neoliberalism was brought in by Labour. As a doctrine it has failed(as we knew it would) and it is time to dump it and get back to basic decency. Little & co will not beat Key & co under his current course. When Key starts rolling out tax cuts whilst his compliant media backs him to the hilt( along with Crosby / Textor shenanigans ) he will walk all over us. Their dirty tricks machine will squash us, as per usual. Crikey ,when Dirty Politics came out last election I thought “neat – it’s all over for Key ” and look what happened. I’ m not trying to be negative ; I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ the left seems to be.

    • xanthe 12.1

      I read that poll as neoliberal agenda: %100, rationalism: margin of error, The only “result” of that poll like the others before it is number of disenfranchised is up

    • @Garabaldi – “I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ effectively deceived the left NZ voter seems to be is.”


  12. Grantoc 13


    You’re getting a bit carried away with your headline and I suspect you know it. Maybe you’re trying to rev up the troops; give them something to be motivated by?

    I’m sure you know as well as the next person that one poll by itself is relatively insignificant. What counts is the pattern that emerges when several polls over time are taken into consideration.

    Go and have a look at Nate Silver’s 538 site and check out the methodology he is using to predict the outcomes of the US presidential election. It will show you that one poll in its own right is just one data point of no special significance in the overall scheme of things.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      I note that the first sentence of the article refers to a poll with very different results, and that you can only fault the headline.

  13. save nz 14

    Little is doing a good job as leader. He has taken a middle approach and working with other parties and it is working.

    He has an alliance with the Greens.
    He has said no to TPP.
    He has said he will build more state houses using Housing dividends.
    He has questioned whether we need so many migrant chefs in NZ.
    He has worked with Winston Peters to get Northland from National.
    He has united Labour.
    He has released his tax returns after the Panama papers.
    He has said he will get rid of our offshore tax haven status.
    He has questioned why Scenic hotels is getting to much aid to build conference centers in Nuie and ‘surprisingly’ their owner is a big donor of the National party before they got the aid money, Oh gosh, just when we thought our development aid was supposed to go to cyclone victims in the pacific we find out it goes to private hotel chains and it gets worse….

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  • New catch limits for unique fishery areas
    Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
    20 hours ago
  • Minister welcomes hydrogen milestone
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
    1 day ago
  • Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment Bill
    The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
    2 days ago
  • Overseas decommissioning models considered
    Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
    2 days ago
  • Release of North Island Severe Weather Event Inquiry
    Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
    2 days ago
  • Justice Minister to attend Human Rights Council
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order.  “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
    2 days ago
  • Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facility
    Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024
    Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing  At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin    Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho    Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today.    I am delighted ...
    3 days ago
  • Government to introduce revised Three Strikes law
    The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
    3 days ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions.   “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says.    “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
    3 days ago
  • Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and Somalia
    New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today.   “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
    3 days ago
  • Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho Collective
    Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale.  “It is good ...
    4 days ago
  • Supporting better financial outcomes for Kiwis
    The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
    4 days ago
  • Trade relationship with China remains strong
    “China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.   Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
    4 days ago
  • PM’s South East Asia mission does the business
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
    5 days ago
  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    6 days ago
  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    6 days ago
  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    6 days ago
  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    6 days ago
  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    6 days ago
  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    6 days ago
  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    6 days ago
  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    6 days ago
  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    6 days ago
  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    7 days ago
  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    7 days ago
  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    7 days ago
  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    7 days ago
  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    7 days ago
  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    7 days ago
  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    1 week ago
  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    1 week ago
  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    1 week ago
  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    1 week ago
  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    1 week ago
  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    1 week ago
  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    1 week ago
  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    1 week ago
  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    1 week ago

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