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Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 8th, 2016 - 113 comments
Categories: Economy, greens, labour, Media, Politics, polls, tv - Tags: , ,

After the Roy Morgan rogue, normal service has been resumed. The alliance between Labour and the Greens continues to gain traction and the third term blues have clearly set in for DunnoKeyo.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll has the Nats on 45.1 percent, a drop of 1.9 percent. Labour/Green has gained most of that, jumping 1.8 percent up to 44.2 percent. NZ First are on 8%, so no show without Winnie.

Labour leader Andrew Little reckons the result is because people realise National haven’t got a handle on the housing crisis.

“People can’t get a decent house, can’t even rent a house and they’re saying, this government’s run out of answers. And they’re looking to parties that do have a comprehensive plan” .

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei agrees:

“New Zealanders are right. National is failing us when it comes to housing. They have no new ideas, they won’t build more houses, they’re not taking the crisis seriously.

“New Zealand families deserve better.”

The two party tie up is working out beautifully. Good job, Labour. Good job, Greens.

113 comments on “Newshub Poll: Key Stuffed ”

  1. Cinny 1

    That should always happen, may momentum continue. It’s time for a change.

  2. pdm 2

    This poll is hard to believe – I will wait for the next Colmar Brunton.

    • Dean Reynolods 2.1

      Colmar Brunton is always skewed in favour of the Nats because CB ‘s methodology is to phone old farts at home during the day, on their landlines.

      • Muttonbird 2.1.1

        What’s a landline?

        • Tiger Mountain

          exactly, an endangered species these days, finally ditched mine and I am over 60 (just), none of my sons circle of early to mid 20s friends have had landlines since leaving home nor do many more transient older people

          the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone, so these figures are bad for the Nats given who is likely to respond, and bad for society in another way because many of the people whose lives the Key govt. is making a misery of are alienated and don’t enrol or vote or have a voice

          • mickysavage

            Aye I have given mine up.

          • Leftie

            With less people having landlines, and with cellphones making political polling tricky, you are probably right Tiger Mountain, “the poll companies may as well just get a list sent from Nat HQ of who to phone.”

            <a href="http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/cellphones-make-political-polling-tricky-2014070616#axzz4GiNuI0U3

            • dukeofurl

              In general it shouldnt matter whether you are landline , mobile or carrier pigeon.
              What matters is the sample is broadly matching the population at large. That means they have to try a lot harder to get respondents in the 18 to 35 group.
              I understand they do this by only asking for this age group once they have their quota for the ‘oldies’.

              Dont read too much in the fact some people (like myself) dont have land lines anymore as the marvels of sampling can get around it

              • Leftie

                I think opinion polling methods are outdated, it hasn’t kept up with changes in technology.

        • mac1

          What’s an old fart?

          • Muttonbird

            The baby boomers with multiple investment properties squeezing the blood out of the young and the working class.

            They’re happy about it though.

            • mac1

              Muttonbird, I thought you might have been referring to senior citizens who at the end of their lives, after fifty years of paying taxes, sit at home with no income but superannuation. You know, those old ones who protested against apartheid, the Bomb, Omega, the Vietnam war, Nuclear testing in the Pacific, racist rugby tours. You know, those ones who are still sleeping rough out on the streets, those ones who struggle to find housing cheap enough to rent, those who frequent the night shelters, who are abused by their children, and are having their social help hours cut, who sit at home in cold winters in under heated houses, and stay in bed for warmth. Those ones who are preyed on by unscrupulous dealers, scammers.

              You see, Muttonbird, there are those kinds of old farts, too.

              Read about them here. https://www.ageconcern.org.nz/files/valuingage.pdf

              Or here. http://superseniors.msd.govt.nz/out-about/volunteering/index.html

              They are the sort of old fart who is probably your parent or grandparent, older family member, neighbour. The ones who contribute ten billion dollars to the economy as volunteers, unpaid. You know the ones. Old farts. Useless oldies. Decrepit antediluvians.

              Old. You know, what you’re getting, right now. Tick. Tick. Tick.

            • D'Esterre

              Muttonbird: “The baby boomers with multiple investment properties…”

              I’m calling that out as bollocks. Dear Leader is a boomer – but only just – and most of the speculators currently wrecking the Auckland housing market are much younger people than he is.

              I’m right at the sharp end of the baby boomer generation. Most of our cohort don’t have the dosh to buy investment properties; and good luck with borrowing money from a bank if you’re our age. Not happening…

          • Leftie

            “What’s an old fart?”

            National supporters.

            • mary_a

              @ Leftie … We are a couple of working class, former strong unionist, still protesting old farts in this household, having been born just after WWII. No property investments, other than our own home, which is our refuge and not a money making commodity.

              But as for being being National supporters … most definitely not … never have been and never will be! I’d much rather be struck down dead, than vote for that fetid bunch of corrupt, crooked mobsters! And believe me there are many of our generation of the same mindset!

          • Murray Simmonds

            I’m one, But what’s a “cellphone”?

            • mac1

              “But what’s a “cellphone”?”

              I’ve never been inside a cell, Murray Simmons. Reminds me of the man in Rotorua who thought from my Christchurch accent that I was an immigrant Pom. He asked how long I’d been ‘out’. I had to say to him that I had never been ‘in’.

      • Chromophore 2.1.2

        Old farts with their landlines – how shocking!
        Racists, sexists, homophobes and ageists – all cut from the same cloth.

        • Chooky

          many old farts with landlines wouldn’t dream of voting for jonkey nact I’ll have you know…they are old style NZ socialists

          this is great news…jonkey on the slippy slidey slope

      • Leftie 2.1.3

        +1 Dean Reynolods

      • mary_a 2.1.4

        @ Dean Reynolods … well this old fart with a landline, is still waiting to be phoned to participate in a political poll! Never been called on landline or mobile and I don’t know of anyone who has been! So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!

        • Leftie

          “So goodness knows who the poll survey people do ring!”

          Those on the list the National party sends them. Like National, the pollsters could easily make it up as they go along.

    • North 2.2

      As much as he/she purports to discount it PDM must be REALLY distressed by this poll. This is only his/her eighth TS outing in eight years according to the search function. A last whistling in the dark as his/her GodKey’s clay feet wash away before the nation’s eyes.

  3. Sacha 4

    why is anybody beyond media monkeys trying to make a story from a single poll?
    only trends count.

    • weka 4.1

      It’s all part of the game 😉

      I haven’t seen an analysis of poll trends for a while though.

      • Michael 4.1.1

        That’s what really matters. A single poll could be rogue or record a blip. It’s the overall trend that matters. I do agree with posters on this thread who say that polling is becoming more inaccurate.

    • mosa 4.2

      +100 Sacha

  4. srylands 5

    You remember you did this in 2013 a year out from the 2014 election.


    The red tide went out again.

    You might want to wait before running such a bizarrely tabloid headline.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1

      Why don’t you take some time off from telling lies in the fraudulent reports you use to bludge taxpayers’ money and invent some lies about political donations instead.

      After all, if National loses you’re unemployable.

    • maninthemiddle 5.2

      The constant fluctuations between despair and triumphalism are hilarious. Please don’t keep pointing this out, it’s funnier than the two Ronnies.

    • Enough is Enough 5.3

      The comments throughout that post are funny in hindsight.

      Everyone spoke with such authority on what would happen over the next 12 months. Almost without fail every comment was proven to be wrong.

      What that says is the polls are a waste of fucking time, other than to act as a gloating contest between the two sides.

      If one side goes up in a poll, they treat it like they scored in a rugby game.

  5. Colonial Viper 6

    National moved within the margin of error. Labour moved within the margin of error. Greens moved within the margin of error.

    Logical conclusion: Key is stuffed?

    • Chris 6.1

      And it’s just a matter of time until the election so let’s just relax because Labour’s gonna fix everything. Yay Labour!

    • Lanthanide 6.2

      Yeah, seems a bit over-egged to me.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

        It seems a fairer conclusion would be: status quo holds – potential positive outlook for Oppo Block

        • mickysavage

          No last few elections National has been at extraordinary levels and settled back. If they are at 45% now and settle back then anything can happen.

          • Colonial Viper

            I’m sure there will be plenty of polling discussion over the next year.

            I haven’t shifted my view of LAB 25% +/-3%, partly because Labour was sitting at 32% to 35% when Cunliffe first took over and they were the ones who “settled back” as the election year proper proceeded.

            • Sigh

              I thought Cunliffe was your hero?

              • Colonial Viper

                Cunliffe had the potential to be an outstanding PM. But IMO the condition of the Labour caucus, and the results of his longstanding Labour political conditioning, meant that he finally could not do what was required to win.

            • Chris

              And with Little as leader may well be worse. Who’s your hero ain’t got nothin’ to do with it.

          • Leftie

            Yes MS, and lets not forget that National lost the Northland by election within months of the 2014 election.

            • Chris

              And how Labour actively set out to destroy Mana while at the same time handed the Maori Party to Key to help prop up his nasty regime of hatred. What does that say about the Labour Party’s ability to properly campaign let alone run the country?

              • Leftie

                Even Hone admits teaming up with Dotcon backfired on him.

                The Maori Party were always going to go with John key, they have been happily propping up his nasty regime since 2008. A vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National, that hasn’t changed.

                • Chris

                  The Dotcom palaver was only one part of it. That doesn’t change how Labour put every ounce of energy it had into destroying Mana both in Te Tai Tokerau and by splitting the left vote in Waiariki that gave the Maori Party the one seat it needed to survive. The result was destroying a potential coalition partner on the one hand, while resuscitating a party that’d said it’d support Key and his mates on the other. Pretty smart strategy, huh?

                  • Leftie

                    Look at how many seats the Maori party have lost since 2008, Pita said they were being punished, the Maori Party know, and if it wasn’t for National’s cabinet club fundraiser dinners, would the Maori party have kept their one remaining seat? The Maori party are in parliament today because John key wanted the there.

                    • Chris

                      They wouldn’t have been there today if Flavell hadn’t won Waiariki. There was a chance Labour could’ve prevented that from happening if its strategy wasn’t to destroy Mana. Sykes and Waititi together got more votes than Flavell. The counter to that is that Mana cosying up to the Internet Party wouldn’t have made any difference. I disagree with that – hindsight’s a wonderful thing. What pisses me off is that Labour not only didn’t even try, they set out to destroy Mana.

                    • Leftie

                      Yeah sure Chris, everything is all Labour’s fault, National and the it’s partner the Maori Party can do no wrong and had nothing to do with anything whatsoever, they’re just innocent bystanders.

    • mosa 6.3

      The only thing stuffed CV is the country.
      Anyway 45% for National 13 months from polling day looking at the trend is not oblivion territory as they STILL have their support built and retained scince 2008.

      • Colonial Viper 6.3.1

        I agree and I think Key/National are still very well in the game. In fact, they haven’t even started rolling out their actual election year strategy yet.

      • Bearded Git 6.3.2

        The Nats are gone on 45%-Peters will take great delight in removing Key. He hasn’t forgotten 2008.

        • te reo putake

          My feeling too, Git. Winston will take his revenge for 2008 and also for the lies the Nat’s are spreading around the Northland electorate. The only potential stumbling block is his attitude to the Greens, which I can tell you is not currently positive*. But if Little can do a bit of manoeuvring and negotiation with both parties, it’s not hard to see a deal being stitched up. I can see two kinds of deal. One with all three parties in Government and one with only two parties and the third giving confidence and supply in exchange for policy gains and ministerial posts outside cabinet.

          *I met with Peters a few weeks ago on another matter and when the business part was finalised we did talk about politics in general. He made it clear he didn’t consider the Greens to be mature enough for Government. I believe he sees them as them as narrowly focussed on the environment and if that’s the case, I think he can probably be convinced by Shaw and Little that the Greens have actually broadened their agenda in recent years.

          • Crashcart

            Would Peter’s be willing to approach the Nat’s before the election privately and indicate that if Key were dropped as leader he would be more inclined to go with them after. That way he gets to be king maker and avoid working with the Greens whilst still sticking it to JK. He is a smart enough operator that I would not be surprised to see something like that happen.

            • Colonial Viper

              This is a discussion which would first occur amongst trusted lieutenants. And National would have to make the approach to NZF. The theoretical agreement I envisage would be Key stepping down 12-16 months after the election, and Winston being pushed back up to Deputy PM.

              Also two or three major policy concessions to NZ First.

              English as Acting PM until 2020.

              Still, I can’t see it ever working in practice.

            • Leftie

              Crashcart, I doubt it if Winston Peters would ever approach the Nats and I doubt that he would go for that proposition either, because it has already happened. Winston Peters was saying during the 2014 election campaign that he was approached and asked if he would support National if John key wasn’t around. Winston didn’t support National.

    • Sigh 6.4

      And yet every time the Roy Morgan farts you’re on here screaming that It’s all over for Labour.

  6. Dale 7

    Its up to Winston. And hell will freeze over before he ever works with the Greens. So National still win.

    • Muttonbird 7.1

      I think he has a soft spot for Metiria Turei. Watch this space.

    • Chooky 7.2

      hell would have to freeze over before Winston went with jonkey…and even then he wouldnt do it!

      the Left needs Winston to be King and King he will be of a Labour Green NZF coalition

      • weka 7.2.1

        “the Left needs Winston to be King”

        Yeah, like a hole in the head. Let’s hope some centre lefties come to their senses.

        • Colonial Viper

          That’ll happen when some centre left parties come to their senses.

          • weka

            Catch 22.

            • Colonial Viper

              “Catch 22” indicates a system or circumstance which on first glance is apparently there to achieve a certain thing, but on investigation is actually designed to make getting there completely impossible.

              What does that same about our centre left parties.

              • weka

                The more centre lefties vote centre the more towards the centre centre left parties will go. That’s not even getting to the fact that Peters could go with Nact.

      • Crashcart 7.2.2

        Your statement points out a major flaw in hoping for Winnie propping up a left government. As said above NAT can ditch JK and form a government with NZF (based on current polling). Labour can’t ditch the entire Green party and do the same.

        • Enough is Enough

          Labour can ditch the Green Party, if Winston demands it.

          The Greens then have the option of giving confidence and supply to a Labour/NZF government; or

          refusing support and therefore leaving Winston with only one option which is the National/NZF government.

          The Greens hold the power as to who the next government is. The only problem is they won’t be in it.

          • b waghorn

            That’s a new angle i hadn’t heard of, if it gets rid of the nats i could live with it.

    • Reddelusion 7.3

      I think the whole who hates who is well over played, these guys are pragmatist and do what’s in their best interest, all the animosity is mostly a big game playing up to the press, end of the day most of them just want their perks and status as an mp to remain, that’s what drives them, national good is secondary, barring the likes of Jk who don’t really need to be their re ego enforcenent and financial gain

      • Chuck 7.3.1

        This will be Winston’s swansong come 2017. He can count…better to be the second largest party in Government than third largest. More policy wins, looks good for NZF supporter base.

        Deputy PM (as long as its not too much hard work) knighthood and plum posting overseas after 2020.

        And the Nats have access to the best aged Scotch whiskey and Cuban cigars 🙂

        Of course this changes if the Nats don’t need Winnie.

        • srylands

          That may prove correct. But remember that in the post brexit anti globalisation world nz first has much in common with the Greens. Paranoid anti markets anti free trade. Populist snake oil.

          Just saying that this long running narrative about Winston never working with the Greens.. Well I think there is common ground there

  7. Rosemary McDonald 8

    “..so no show without Winnie.”

    There wouldn’t BE a show without Winnie.

    He’s the original showman…plus he seems not to give a stuff what folk think of him.

    He just shoots off at the mouth end, seemingly without thought, and folk just love him.

    Someone should bottle what he has.

    ‘In the House’ will be a boring watch when he retires.

    I’d be working hard at making friends if I were Labour/Green!

    • Nck 8.1

      @Rosemary…. I think Winston says some good things and he has thought about it, example the other day on his critique on the housing crisis and Natzi motivation, drivers behind their in actions…… Winston, often provides straight statements that I can understand… I find a lot of other politicians are so ambiguous because they want to cover their ass.

  8. swordfish 9

    3 News/Newshub Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election

    L+G = Labour + Green support
    NZF = NZ First
    Oppo = Opposition Bloc (Lab+Green+NZF)
    Nat = National
    L+G/Nat = National’s percentage point lead over Lab+Green
    Govt = Government Bloc (Nat+Maori+ACT+UF)
    Right = Broad Right Bloc (Govt+Conservatives)
    O/G = Percentage point lead for Oppo over Govt or visa versa (Govt lead in Bold / Oppo lead in normal typeface)

    (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

    ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

    2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ………. 47 ……….. 11 ………. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

    Reid Research Polls since 2014 Election:


    RR (Jan) …………… 38 ……. 7 ………. 46 ……….. 50 ……….. 12 ………. 52 ……… 54 ………. 6

    RR (May) …………. 42 ……. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 46 …………. 4 ……….. 48 ……… 50 ……… 2

    RR (July) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ………. 3

    RR (Sep) ………….. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 51 ………. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 48 ……… 49 ……… 3

    RR (Nov) …………. 43 ……. 8 ……….. 50 ……….. 47 ………….. 4 ………. 49 ……… 50 ……… 1


    RR (May) …………. 42 …….. 8 ………. 50 ……….. 47 …………… 5 ………. 48 ……… 48 ……… 2

    RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ……….. 45 …………… 1………. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

    Combined Lab+Green, Oppo Bloc = up a little
    Nats, Govt, Broader Right = down a little
    Which together means = Nats’ lead over Lab+Green slashed to just 1 point. And the Oppo Bloc roughly doubles the lead it’s maintained over the Govt since May last year.

    As CV says, we’re in Margin of Error territory. But still – how can I put it ? – at least potentially encouraging. Most important of all: puts the last Roy Morgan in perspective.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.

      The thing to watch will be National’s reaction to how these numbers develop over the next few months. They will be working hard creating an election year plan to address all the deficiencies that they can identify.

      Key wants that 4th term.

      • mickysavage 9.1.1

        But the deficiency is the housing crisis. And National for ideological reasons is totally unable to deal with it.

        • Leftie

          MS, That crucial point doesn’t seem to factor into Colonial Viper’s thinking.

          • You_Fool

            You both miss the possibility that National find a better way to look like they are doing something whilst actually doing nothing. Just have to make sure middle NZ and their kids think things are better, and find a way to demonise those on the streets enough to make people be less worried about their plight.

            • Leftie

              Too late, that ship has already sailed. Everyone knows National is paying lip service whilst sitting on it’s hands. I doubt there are that many people out there who are prepared to believe National’s lies anymore.

        • Chuck

          I understand that this poll also asked the question “is the Government doing enough for housing?” 75% said NO.

          Yet National dropped only be the margin of error…

          Then we have Winston…I see a Sir Winston Peters in the future! I just can’t see Peters working with the Greens in Government. Best case for Lab/Gr is 50/50 chance he will go with them.

        • Stuart Munro

          I can’t help thinking that their ideology is in part a comforting validator for their actual incompetence.

      • swordfish 9.1.2

        “Heh you said potentially encouraging and I said potentially positive outlook.”

        Yeah, I noticed that – and at almost exactly the same time. We’re turning into a double-act.

    • Bearded Git 9.2

      My rolling average of the last 5 Roy Morgan’s:

      Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
      National 46.0

      Lab/Gr/NZF 50.1
      Nats/MP/ACT 48.3

      • maninthemiddle 9.2.1

        …and the figures if you add NZF to National?

        • Leftie

          Why do that? It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National. NZ First hasn’t supported National in almost 20 years, and Winston Peters, who supported a Labour government last time, hasn’t forgotten what John key and his National Party did, and the National government hasn’t mended any bridges in that regard either.

          • maninthemiddle

            “It’s not a given that Winston Peter’s would automatically support National.”

            So it;s a given that he will support LabGreens?

            No, I thought not.

            • Leftie

              Why did you ask me a question and then answer it yourself Maninthemiddle?

              My answer is, Why not? With proper negotiations there is no reason whatsoever that Labour, Greens and NZ First can’t work together, because I think they can. Winston Peters positioning re Greens has softened a lot over the last 11 years.

  9. swordfish 10

    Direct Comparison with 2014 Election Results

    (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

    ……………………… L+G …. NZF …. Oppo ….. Nat …. L+G/Nat .. Govt …. Right …. O/G

    2014 Election …. 36 …….. 9 ………. 46 ….…. 47 ……….. 11 .……. 49 ………. 53 ……… 3

    Latest Reid Research Poll

    RR (Aug) …………. 44 ……… 8 ………. 52 ….….. 45 …….… 1…….…. 47 ………. 47 ……… 5

    Diff ……………….. + 8 ……. – 1 ……… + 6 …….. – 2 ……. – 10 …….. – 2 …….. – 6 …….. – 8

    So, you know, next time one of our good Tory chums* tells us there’s been next to no movement since the last Election …

    Notice, incidentally, how the collapse of Colin Craig’s Conservatives has replenished and hence partially disguised both National’s and the Govt Bloc’s fall. (Nats and Govt down slightly / broader Right Bloc down heavily).

    * Speaking of our regular Tory Gentlemen callers, spare a thought for Fisiani who just a week ago asked: “When the next opinion poll shows support for National is over 50% will that be considered yet another rogue poll? How high will the figure have to go till the penny drops that most people are happy.”

    Open mike 31/07/2016

    Alwyn, meanwhile, actually participated in this poll …
    “I was polled by Reid Research about a week ago.”

    Open mike 06/08/2016

    • I’d rather not spare a thought for Fisiani, lol.

    • Chuck 10.2

      swordfish, I find this bit of data the most interesting…

      “Asked if the Government was doing enough to control the housing market, 75 per cent of respondents said “no”, a drop of 1.4 per cent since the last poll in May. Twenty-two per cent thought enough was being done, up 2.5 per cent.”

      So 75% think the Nats are NOT doing enough…yet they only resister a modest fall.

      IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%…it would in theory also translate to an increase in party vote.

      • Muttonbird 10.2.1

        IMO this leaves a lot of upside for the Nats to work with in regards to getting that 75% down to say 50%.

        They would have to show leadership on housing – not going to happen.

        • Chuck

          I do agree about this – “They would have to show leadership on housing”.

          However – “not going to happen” hmmm…wishful thinking, this will be a key part of their 2017 campaign, just as it is the oppositions.

          Keep in mind the Lab/Gr partnership will also need to convince voters they have the solutions, and more importantly can deliver on them…

          • Muttonbird

            National don’t have the will to address the issue – they are petrified of spooking the horses. More people are becoming disenfranchised by National’s social policy fumbling. This is gathering pace and next winter some real discontent will set in.

            Labour just needs to show these people someone at least is listening, offer them some hope, and then mobilise them to the polling booth. National of course will do as little as possible and try to dress it up as action.

        • mary_a

          @ Muttonbird (10.2.1) … 100%

  10. Gristle 11

    With the manipulation of voters to get UF and ACT a seat each, are we seeing a continual parliament of 122? Does this manipulation then give National an advantage so each National party vote is worth slightly more than each Labour Party vote?

    If there is should Labour follow and throw a seat to Mana and regain parity of party vote values?

  11. Garibaldi 12

    OK so there’s been a small shift in one poll. Why all the crowing? According to the poll only 10% want Little. I still think the left has to break from neoliberalism instead of fluffing around in the middle and being, in essence, National lite. Neoliberalism was brought in by Labour. As a doctrine it has failed(as we knew it would) and it is time to dump it and get back to basic decency. Little & co will not beat Key & co under his current course. When Key starts rolling out tax cuts whilst his compliant media backs him to the hilt( along with Crosby / Textor shenanigans ) he will walk all over us. Their dirty tricks machine will squash us, as per usual. Crikey ,when Dirty Politics came out last election I thought “neat – it’s all over for Key ” and look what happened. I’ m not trying to be negative ; I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ the left seems to be.

    • xanthe 12.1

      I read that poll as neoliberal agenda: %100, rationalism: margin of error, The only “result” of that poll like the others before it is number of disenfranchised is up

    • @Garabaldi – “I’m just reminding you of what the Nats do and how splintered/ gullible/ ‘naive’ effectively deceived the left NZ voter seems to be is.”


  12. Grantoc 13


    You’re getting a bit carried away with your headline and I suspect you know it. Maybe you’re trying to rev up the troops; give them something to be motivated by?

    I’m sure you know as well as the next person that one poll by itself is relatively insignificant. What counts is the pattern that emerges when several polls over time are taken into consideration.

    Go and have a look at Nate Silver’s 538 site and check out the methodology he is using to predict the outcomes of the US presidential election. It will show you that one poll in its own right is just one data point of no special significance in the overall scheme of things.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      I note that the first sentence of the article refers to a poll with very different results, and that you can only fault the headline.

  13. save nz 14

    Little is doing a good job as leader. He has taken a middle approach and working with other parties and it is working.

    He has an alliance with the Greens.
    He has said no to TPP.
    He has said he will build more state houses using Housing dividends.
    He has questioned whether we need so many migrant chefs in NZ.
    He has worked with Winston Peters to get Northland from National.
    He has united Labour.
    He has released his tax returns after the Panama papers.
    He has said he will get rid of our offshore tax haven status.
    He has questioned why Scenic hotels is getting to much aid to build conference centers in Nuie and ‘surprisingly’ their owner is a big donor of the National party before they got the aid money, Oh gosh, just when we thought our development aid was supposed to go to cyclone victims in the pacific we find out it goes to private hotel chains and it gets worse….

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  • Tourism communities: support, recovery and re-set plan
    TIHEI MAURI ORA Tuia te whakapono Tuia te tumanako Tuia te aroha Tuia te hunga ora Ki te hunga ora Tihei Mauri ora Ka nui te mihi ki a koutou Tena koutou, tena koutou, tena koutou katoa. Thank you, Hilary and thank you, Chris, and everyone at TIA for this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Support, recovery and re-set plan for tourism communities
    Five South Island tourist communities targeted for specialist support Pressure on Māori tourism operators and Conservation facilities recognised Domestic and international-facing tourism agencies put on more secure footing Long-term plan to re-set tourism with a focus on sustainability, industry standards and regional economic diversification A plan to ensure the immediate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Speech on NZ Rail Plan
    Check against delivery E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā karanga maha o te wa, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tātou katoa. Ki ngā mana whenua o Taranaki Whānui anō nei aku mihi ki a koutou. Nōku te hōnore kia haere mai ki te whakanuia tēnei huihuinga whakahirahira. Nō ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Government hits massive milestone in Violence Prevention & Elimination
    Minister for Family and Sexual Violence Marama Davidson announced a major milestone at a hui in South Auckland today, with the launch of the national engagement process on the prevention and elimination of family and sexual violence. “There is no room for violence in our lives – there is no ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Fee waiver extended for conservation tourism businesses
    Tourism businesses operating on public conservation land will have another six months of fees waived to help them adjust to the downturn in international visitors in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Acting Minister of Conservation Dr Ayesha Verrall has announced. "We acknowledge it has been a difficult year for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • ‘Lua Wave’ to future-proof Pasifika Festivals in Aotearoa
    Pasifika festival organisers will receive additional support to adapt to the COVID-19 environment thanks to the Government’s newly launched ‘Lua Wave’ component of the Pasifika Festivals Initiative, Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “This initiative has not only been to support festival organisers to recover from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Crown accounts show confidence in Govt economic plan
    The Government’s financial accounts continue to reflect the resilience of the economy and confidence in the Government’s economic recovery plan. The Crown accounts for the nine months to the end of March 2021 show both OBEGAL and the operating balance remain better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Energy Trusts of NZ Autumn Conference
    It’s a pleasure to be here today. Thank you Karen [Sherry] for the introduction and thanks to the Energy Trusts Executive for inviting me to speak at tonight’s event. It is an exciting time to come to speak to trustees of distribution companies. For many decades the electricity industry was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • New partnership to grow Māori success in STEM
    A new partnership with the Pūhoro STEM Academy will support thousands more rangatahi Māori to participate and succeed in the fields of science, technology, and innovation, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Since 2016, Pūhoro has worked with Māori students to build their capability and create pathways to employment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Rail builds platform for economic recovery
    Transport Minister Michael Wood and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dr David Clark today released the Government’s long term vision for a sustainable rail network that supports our economic recovery. New Zealand Rail Plan lays out how the Government is building a resilient, reliable and safe network, as well as the indicative ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • NZ and UK agree to lift the pace of free trade talks
    New Zealand and the United Kingdom have agreed to rapidly lift the tempo of talks, as the two countries enter a new phase in free trade negotiations, Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “UK Secretary of State for International Trade, Liz Truss, and I spoke today about ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill passes first reading
    The Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill has passed its first reading and will now be considered by Parliament’s Justice select committee. “The Bill updates and improves New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm,” Minister of Justice Kris Faafoi said. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Statement on The Speaker and Annual Review Debate
    “The serious issue of alleged sexual assault and harassment at Parliament was poorly managed and inappropriately politicised last night. The tone of the debate did not reflect well on Parliament as a whole,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “Any investigation of claims of sexual assault should be in a manner ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Govt motoring towards zero-carbon buses and protecting drivers’ conditions
    Transport Minister Michael Wood is seeking feedback on options for the next phase of the Public Transport Operating Model (PTOM) review to better protect bus drivers’ pay conditions, and also achieving the Government’s target of fully decarbonising the public transport bus fleet by 2035. Michael Wood said investing in our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Drop in unemployment shows Govt economic plan is working
    The Government’s economic recovery plan continues to be reflected in the labour market, with more people in work and unemployment falling. Stats NZ figures show employment rose by 15,000 in the March quarter, with 14,000 more women in work. The unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent. This ...
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    1 day ago
  • Government sets pay and workforce expectations for the Public Sector
    The Government’s Workforce Policy Statement issued today sets out its expectations for pay and employment relations in the Public Sector, the Minister of Finance and Minister for the Public Service say. “New Zealand has had an exceptionally successful health and economic response to COVID-19. This has been supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Author Ben Brown is New Zealand’s first Te Awhi Rito Reading Ambassador
    Lyttleton writer Ben Brown (Ngāti Mahuta, Ngāti Koroki, Ngāti Paoa) will be New Zealand’s first Te Awhi Rito Reading Ambassador, promoting the value of reading for children and young people, Internal Affairs Minister Jan Tinetti announced today. A poet and award-winning author, Ben Brown writes books, non-fiction and short stories ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Celebrating New Zealand’s firefighters this International Firefighters’ day
    With two fire stations already complete, and building underway on 16 fire stations around the country, today we celebrate International Firefighters’ Day for the important role firefighters have in keeping communities across the country safe, says Minister of Internal Affairs, Jan Tinetti. The work is progressing due to Government funding ...
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    2 days ago
  • Ron Brierley knighthood to go
    Ron Brierley has written to the Clerk of the Executive Council to tender his resignation as a Knight Bachelor. The Queen has been informed. The forfeiture follows the Prime Minister initiating the process to remove his Knighthood. The Clerk of the Executive Council wrote to him on 6 April 2021 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Employment boost for rural communities
    The Government is continuing to create opportunities for at-risk rangatahi overcome barriers to employment, education or training with the next tranche of He Poutama Rangatahi programmes, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “We’re focused on supporting rangatahi to get what they need to progress in the ...
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    2 days ago
  • Pre-Budget speech to Wellington Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you for the invitation to speak today, it is great to be here.  I mean that both sincerely and literally. For this equivalent speech last year I took part virtually, beaming in from the Beehive Theatrette with only a socially distanced press gallery bearing silent witness. You are a ...
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    2 days ago
  • Budget 2021 reprioritises nearly $1 billion
    The Government’s strong pandemic response and the better than expected economic recovery means not all the money allocated in the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund has been spent, Grant Robertson said in his annual pre-Budget speech to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce this morning. “As part of Budget preparation I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech on Digital Identity Trust Framework
    I'd like to start by thanking Graeme, David and Ben from NZTech and Digital Identity New Zealand for inviting me to speak to you. I’m so sorry I can’t be there in person, but I want to acknowledge those of you who are, including some of this country’s top tech ...
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    3 days ago
  • NZ Cook Islands travel bubble significant step in COVID-19 recovery
    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown have today announced that, pending final confirmation by New Zealand’s Director-General of Health and the Cook Islands Secretary of Health, two-way quarantine-free travel will commence between the two countries on 17 May (NZT). “Two way quarantine-free travel ...
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    3 days ago
  • Minister for State Owned Enterprises saddened by passing of KiwiRail Chair
    Minister for State Owned Enterprises, David Clark is deeply saddened to hear about the passing of KiwiRail Chairman, Brian Corban. “I know Brian was seen as a transformative leader within KiwiRail, well respected for his wisdom, honesty and sense of humour,” said David Clark. Mr Corban served as Chair of ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to the China Business Summit by the Minister for Trade and Export Growth
      Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen.  Tena koutou katoa.  Good morning. It is my pleasure to join you today for this China Business Summit – my first as Minister for Trade and Export Growth as well as Minister of Agriculture – and to have the opportunity to speak to you ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Productivity Commission inquiry into immigration settings
    The Productivity Commission will hold an inquiry into immigration settings to ensure New Zealand’s long term prosperity and wellbeing, Grant Robertson and Kris Faafoi say. This inquiry, the first under the new Productivity Commission chair, Dr Ganesh Nana, will focus on immigration policy as a means of improving productivity in ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to China Business Summit
    Ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests, ate marie, tena koutou katoa, good morning. I am very happy to be here with you once again at my fourth China Business Summit. Thanks again to you, Fran, for being the driving force behind this event.  As ever, I’m very pleased to see such ...
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    3 days ago
  • Speech to Te Taumata Wahine Toa Hui, Kerikeri
    I would like to begin by acknowledging a few people here today.  Firstly, Chris Karamea Insley for his hard work and commitment to the vision of Te Taumata. I’d also like to acknowledge Minister Nanaia Mahuta, New Zealand’s first Maori wahine Minister of Foreign Affairs, whom you have just heard ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature to boost employment in the South
    A suite of significant Jobs for Nature projects will boost conservation efforts and create jobs across the southern South Island, Acting Minister for Conservation Dr Ayesha Verrall announced from Te Anau today. “The Government’s Jobs for Nature programme is investing in the future of the area’s stunning environment, with projects ...
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    6 days ago
  • Regional economic potential unlocked as Bay of Plenty project gets underway
    A milestone for jobs, businesses and regional economic development in Bay of Plenty is being marked as construction gets underway on the multi-million dollar Ōpōtiki harbour infrastructure project. Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash has joined Whakatōhea iwi, local councils and representatives of the aquaculture and marine industry at ...
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    6 days ago
  • New Pilot to unlock cultural potential in communities
    Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni today announced Manatū Taonga (Ministry for Culture and Heritage) is now accepting applications from cultural sector organisations to host cultural activators in eight communities around Aotearoa. “This pilot, as part of Te Tahua Whakahaumaru (Creative Arts Recovery and Employment Fund), aims to build ...
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    6 days ago
  • Supporting New Zealanders Through Winter Months
    From tomorrow, 1 May, over one million New Zealanders receiving either a Main Benefit or New Zealand Superannuation will get more money each week through the Winter Energy Payment. “The Winter Energy Payment started as part of the Government’s December 2017 Families Package designed to help older New Zealanders and ...
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    6 days ago
  • New Zealand to donate 250,000 courses of COVID-19 vaccines to Fiji
    New Zealand has offered, and Fiji has accepted, sufficient doses of AstraZeneca for 250,000 people from New Zealand’s domestic vaccine portfolio, New Zealand Associate Minister of Health and Foreign Affairs Aupito William Sio and Fiji Health and Medical Services Minister Ifereimi Waqainabete announced today. “New Zealand and Fiji are working together closely to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Te Ōhanga Māori Report Speech
    *Check with delivery* Insights from Te Ōhanga report First and foremost - thank you for the mahi of everyone who has been involved in producing this report. The Government needs up-to-date and accurate data on the size and scope of the Māori economy for us to understand how best to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New ACC Board Chair Appointed
    Minister for ACC Carmel Sepuloni is delighted to announce the appointment of Hon Steve Maharey CNZM, as a new member and chair successor for the board of ACC. He will commence as a member on 1 May 2021 and become Chair on the retirement of Dame Paula Rebstock on 31 ...
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    1 week ago
  • Greater role for a public forestry service
    A greater role for a public forestry service has been outlined by the Forestry Minister, to drive the focus on regional economic development, skills training, and a low-emissions future. Stuart Nash today announced Te Uru Rākau (Forestry New Zealand) will be renamed Te Uru Rākau - New Zealand Forest Service, ...
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    1 week ago
  • Govt increases support for those wanting to change registered sex
    The Government is increasing support for New Zealanders wanting to change their sex marker on birth certificates, Minister of Internal Affairs Jan Tinetti said today. “This Government understands that self-identification is a significant issue for transgender, non-binary and intersex New Zealanders, and is committed to making it easier for people ...
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    1 week ago
  • Drought support expanded as dry conditions bite along the east coast
    The Government will boost its drought support to new parts of the country and continue helping farmers in areas facing long-term dry conditions, says Agriculture and Rural Communities Minister Damien O’Connor. An extra $900,000 of funding will be used to help farmers around the country, with the current large-scale adverse ...
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    1 week ago
  • New inpatient ward for Waitākere Hospital
    A new $40 million, 30-bed ward at Waitākere Hospital will mean more West Aucklanders can be treated close to home. Health Minister Andrew Little visited the hospital today to announce Government funding for the ward, subject to an approved business case. “As I said in my speech last week announcing ...
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    1 week ago