NRT: National’s future coalition options

Written By: - Date published: 1:31 pm, May 2nd, 2013 - 24 comments
Categories: conservative party, national, nz first - Tags: , ,

No Right Turn points out National’s inherent strategic coalition flaw after the next election..

Writing on Stuff, Vernon Small highlights what’s really at stake in the upcoming Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election: National’s future coalition options:

If between them he, Mr Jones and the Ikaroa-Rawhiti candidate can further wound the Maori Party, it will be a strategically important victory ahead of the 2014 election when Dr Sharples will be under pressure, and the retiring Mrs Turia’s seat will be in the balance.

Similarly, on the undercard, the Mana Party will be looking for a good showing to out-poll the Maori Party.

Mr Key’s options for future minor-party support are already dwindling.

Without a viable Maori Party – preferably with more seats than Mana – it is even more likely that dead rat will be on the National Party’s menu in 2014, courtesy of Winston Peters and NZ First.

As amusing as that is, even that could be difficult. Why? Because NZ First’s political niche will be contested by two other parties next election: Colin Craig’s Conservatives, and the new farmer party Focus New Zealand. While each has a slightly different tone, they’re all economically nationalist and socially conservative; they oppose asset sales, they view the high exchange rate as a problem requiring government intervention, they are suspicious of social change. In other words, they’re all essentially competing for the same pool of voters. Unfortunately, thanks to our undemocratic 5% threshold, that could be bad for all three.

The longer-term is even more problematic. Winston will retire or die eventually, and NZ First will go with him. Unless one of the other parties can establish a foothold, or a credible new prospect emerges, National will require a majority in order to govern – a very tough ask in an MMP environment.

24 comments on “NRT: National’s future coalition options”

  1. Draco T Bastard 1

    National will require a majority in order to govern – a very tough ask in an MMP environment.

    In the 90 years before 1996, we only had two governments [1938, 1951] which were elected by a majority of voters.

    There’s a reason why National want us to have a less proportional voting system and it has to do with them being very afraid of democracy.

  2. Rich 2

    Unfortunately, thanks to our undemocratic 5% threshold, that could be bad for all three.

    I don’t see it as unfortunate that retarded social conservatives don’t get their votes counted.

  3. Bearded Git 3

    Winnie will never go with Key-he hates him with a vengeance after 2008.

    • lprent 3.1

      Yeah, but I remember Winston hating on the National party leadership in 1996 as well. I hate making the same false presumptions twice.

    • Tom Gould 3.2

      Was I the only one who heard Winston say that buying back all the privatised power company shares was a prerequisite for support after the 2014 election? I guess Vernon figures that’s not too far a stretch for Key, given his values and principles and all?

      • karol 3.2.1

        Lole Taylor repeated that on last Saturday’s anti-asset sales rally. She said that NZ First would be looking to buy back the power companies and amalgamate them into one body.

      • Vagabundo 3.2.2

        I think Vernon sees the writing on the wall and is just spitballing. He probably knows a Key-led National’s election hopes are fucked, unless there’s some sort of substantial scandal involving a leader from one of the two main opposition parties.

        Looking at the parties in government, NZFirst is the only one that would be remotely compatible, with anything resembling a future, long or short term. There’s no guarantee that Focus NZ will ever get into Parliament, and likewise with the Conservatives – at least not at the 2014 and 2017 elections where Peters will probably sponge up all of the bigot vote for another term or two in Parliament.

        The fly in the ointment in that scenario is the small fact that Key had emphatically ruled out ever having Winston Peters in a National-led government on at least two occasions, while campaigning before two separate elections. The utterance “I don’t see a place for a Winston Peters-led New Zealand First in a government that I lead” from 2011 is pretty emphatic isn’t it? If Key and Peters do form a partnership, everyone know Peters will hold him over a barrel. I wonder if Key will be that desperate enough to be PM if that scenario comes to pass.

        • Murray Olsen 3.2.2.1

          There are plenty of Winston fans who aren’t bigoted, but are nationalistic. It’s a mistake to write them all off. As far as the bigots go, I’d say there are far more among National supporters. The difference is that Winston First bigots are xenophobes, while the National ones hate other Kiwis.

      • David H 3.2.3

        Yeah a rat that size would choke even Shonkey. Have to buy back all shares. Amd Winniw would want what ?/ Blinglishes job? Joyce’s? or the Kink of Cera.

    • felix 3.3

      Winston will go with anyone who offers him enough power.

      So will Key.

    • emergency mike 3.4

      As lprent says, some of us remember ’96.

  4. AmaKiwi 4

    Why can’t Labour/Greens make a deal with minor parties that are “economically nationalist and socially conservative”?

    As the economy dives, the Left will become more economically nationalistic: “Buy New Zealand made,” “no foreign ownership,” etc.

    Where are the likely conflicts between the Left and those who are “socially conservative”? Except for racism, I don’t see any serious enough to be deal breakers because in tough times “it’s the economy, stupid.”

    We are going the way of Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Portugal, etc. Neo-liberals are the enemy. My enemy’s enemy is my friend.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      EU wide unemployment is now 26% with youth unemployment double that.

      And still no sign of any macro course changes.

      • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1

        Of course not, the rich whom the governments rule for, are doing very well.

    • Murray Olsen 4.2

      AmaKiwi, what approach would you take to Golden Dawn and the UK Independence Party?

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.1

        No problems working with UKIP; the Golden Dawn however are a nazi party and not simply “socially conservative”.

        • Murray Olsen 4.2.1.1

          I would have severe problems working with the UKIP. Their main problem with Europe seems to be that untermenschen from the east can enter Britain and that they are forced to recognise some human rights conventions. They are virulently anti-Muslim and offer a knee jerk law and order policy that would make Garth McVicar jealous. They have heaps of links with the fascist EDL and BNP and their candidates have an unfortunate habit of accidentally giving Nazi salutes. They offer some sort of rubbish British purity, populism, and isolationalism and will deepen the Tory attacks on the workers. As far as I can see, the difference between them and Golden Dawn is one of degree and timing. Give them another year or two and the transparent veneer of civilised behaviour they try to hide behind will disappear.
          I do not pick my allies because the Tories don’t like them. For me, things go a bit deeper than that.

          • AmaKiwi 4.2.1.1.1

            Hi, Murray.

            You and I have a close mutual acquaintance whom you worked with and I am related to.

            Back to politics. I am not familiar with either of those movements but hand in hand with a lousy economy goes racism and intolerance. In good times “us” includes everyone. In bad times “us” narrows to my country, my ethnic group, my family, etc. A lousy economy makes war more likely.

            That is a challenge in hard times: to respect the worth and dignity of everyone.

            • Murray Olsen 4.2.1.1.1.1

              I’ve worked with hundreds of people over the years. Not sure why you mention that????
              It is exactly because simplistic and narrow solutions become appealing in hard times that we need to be strengthened in our wider view. Anything else is just falling into a trap.

          • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.1.2

            We should remember that clones of these European parties would never ever work in NZ, therefore your premise is and will remain a hypothetical. European countries (and banks) are broke through and through. And, as AmaKiwi suggests, after financial and economic breakdown, we know exactly what is likely to happen next in Europe by a simple cursory glance at history.

            They are virulently anti-Muslim and offer a knee jerk law and order policy that would make Garth McVicar jealous.

            Muslim Sharia law vigilantes are currently active in London intimidating locals. This is political saltpetre.

            • rosy 4.2.1.1.2.1

              “We know exactly what is likely to happen next in Europe by a simple cursory glance at history.”

              A cursory glance would be too simple. History happened because enough people supported the likes of UKIP and Golden Dawn. It happened because the left got beaten in a rigged game that divided the working class and laid blame for the economic turmoil unevenly. What happened in Europe can happen anywhere if you’re willing to make the same compromises and play the same game. Alternatively the left can hold onto to it’s principles and play the game a different way. After all, isn’t that what some of us are arguing in the debate over the Labour leadership?

            • Murray Olsen 4.2.1.1.2.2

              Plenty of EDL and BNP vigilantes have intimidated locals in Britain over the years. All white Christians weren’t blamed for this. Now a few Sharia law fans are causing some problems. The UKIP is very quick to blame all Muslims, while at the same time accusing Muslim men of pedophilia and sexual grooming. The discussions on UKIP friendly websites would be equally at home on WhaleSpew.
              My premise is that the UKIP stinks. Nothing hypothetical about that. Yours is that you would have no problem working with them, which also seems pretty concrete.
              As to your claim that we wouldn’t see clones of European parties in Aotearoa, this is irrelevant. We already see the welfare policies of the British Tories, an imitation of the penal policies of the US Republicans, and industrial and privacy policies that would make any banana republic dictator proud. It can happen here.

              rosy: I agree. A left which tries to manage capitalist crisis by following the rules of the right ends up delivering votes to the far right.

  5. Vagabundo 5

    And it looks like ACT could be gone before the 2014 election.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10881226

  6. Matthew Hooton 6

    In this case, NRT’s analysis is far too rational.

    He says: “NZ First’s political niche will be contested by two other parties next election: Colin Craig’s Conservatives, and the new farmer party Focus New Zealand. While each has a slightly different tone, they’re all economically nationalist and socially conservative; they oppose asset sales, they view the high exchange rate as a problem requiring government intervention, they are suspicious of social change. In other words, they’re all essentially competing for the same pool of voters.”

    I think NZ1’s political positioning is much less policy based than this and is about the idea that “Winston’s a good guy – a bit of a larrikin who keeps them honest.”-

    You need, I think, to distinguish between his party membership, such as it is, who may care about policy, and the 100,000 or thereabouts who vote for him, who I think do so for less intellectual more emotional reasons.

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