On the US election.
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9:42 am, October 30th, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, Joe Biden, us politics -
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This year forecasting the U.S. election has an interesting additional element, with Trump and the Republican Party gearing up to steal the election if it is not a landslide for their opponents. First, though, the election itself.
The election is shaping up to be a blue wave. Five days out from election day, Nate Silver’s sophisticated model rates Biden’s chances at 89 in 100. The Democrats have a good chance of winning the Senate and are very nearly certain to win back the House according to this modelling.
But, many people say, we were told in 2016 that Clinton would win. That’s sort of true. Clinton was looking likely to win up until the final days, when the Comey “bombshell” dropped, and she lost 5 points according to the experts. And she did win the popular vote, by almost 3 million. It’s just that she lost three midwestern states by around 40,000 votes in all. The pundits that gave Trump a fair chance of winning should have made that clearer. On election eve, Nate Silver’s model gave Trump a reasonable 29% chance, for example.
It’s true that the pollsters underweighted for uneducated white voters in 2016. However, they aren’t making that mistake again.
Anyway, 2016 is a poor indicator of what will happen in 2020.
For one thing, Trump was standing against the second most unpopular candidate in recent memory (after himself) and managed to capitalise on the baggage she carried. Biden may not be a great orator, but he doesn’t have the huge negatives Clinton did. Attempts to besmirch Biden and his family have not gained the traction that the “Lock her up!” campaign did.
Tellingly, even when Clinton’s support peaked, it was lower than Biden’s has been at any point since he became the Democratic candidate.
For another thing, in 2016 FBI Director Comey gifted Trump the election with his bombshell about the FBI investigating Clinton’s emails only about a week out from election day. There’s been no bombshell this time, and in any case, with more than 80 million early votes cast, the election is already half over with the polls showing Biden clearly in the lead not just across the country, but in those pivotal midwestern states.
Further, there is a much smaller persuadable, undecided vote this time than in 2016 (around 5% according to the polls). The electorate is more polarised than ever before, and Biden’s lead has been remarkably stable since the middle of the year when…
… Covid kicked in and Trump’s abysmal response became clear. The pandemic and Trump’s response has not only displaced the economy as the most salient issue for most voters, but it has also robbed Trump of any claim to superior economic management as the economy has tanked. A double whammy.
Trump was in trouble even before Covid hit, despite what some people said. He’d lost the suburbs, and suburban women in particular, early in the term. The pattern of special and state elections leading up to the 2018 congressional elections foreshadowed a blue wave, and sure enough, the House flipped convincingly, and the Democrats gained at state and local level all over the country. Trump has been one of the most unpopular recent presidents since shortly after he took office. The only presidents with similar disapproval ratings since polling commenced in the middle of last century are Jimmy Carter and H. W. Bush. Both lost.
Trump has also lost other voters, most importantly older voters fearful of Covid and white voters without college degrees. Even more importantly, he has lost the most support amongst this latter group in those very midwestern states that handed him those vital Electoral College votes last time around. The fact that numbers of new Covid cases and hospitalisations are breaking records in Wisconsin and Michigan while voting is underway just adds to Trump’s woes.
Better still, with the exception of Pennsylvania, where Biden’s margin is smaller (at around 5%) than Wisconsin and Michigan, state-level polls are showing that the battleground is in states that Trump won comfortably in 2016 are leaning towards Biden or contestable. These include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, where Biden is marginally ahead in polling, and Ohio and Texas (!), where he is close.
This is good news for Biden, because he has been raising vastly more funding than Trump and is outspending him in these states, forcing Trump onto the defensive over a wide front.
The huge early vote, with legions of new voters, a monster vote overall and higher levels of engagement this year augur well for Biden. Signs are that much larger numbers of young people are voting, another positive sign.
In sum, there’s a small chance that Trump could pull it off again, but it’s not likely.
The problem is that anything less than a convincing win on the night will see the Republicans trying to steal the election. They’ve been remarkably open about it. They are gearing up to challenge results in the key battleground states, especially the validity of mail-in votes, with plans to suspend the counting of those ballots. They will be fighting these legal battles in Republican-controlled states with local and federal courts stacked with Republican judges, and the Supreme Court with its new 6-3 conservative majority.
If they can tie things up enough, Trump has alluded to using the 12th Amendment, which in the event of a contested election result would see the House of Representatives decide the outcome. With each state delegation getting one vote, and the Republicans currently holding the advantage (with more small, rural states), the Republicans could steal the election unless the Democrats can wrestle a few state delegations away from them.
This is not to mention an explosion of violence by the armed thugs under orders from Trump to “standby”, seeking to provoke a backlash from left-wing radicals that would be a pretext for Trump to impose martial law in key Democratic-held cities under the Insurrection Act.
In short, Biden’s likely to win, but he needs to win early and win big if we are to avoid legal chaos and fighting on the streets and a concerted attempt to steal the election. This is one to watch.
Peter Haynes
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The Waitangi Tribunal has released an Urgent Report on the Government’s proposed amendments to the Takutai Moana Act 2011. The report calls out Paul Goldsmith’s proposal for what it is: a “gross breach of the Treaty” and an “illegitimate exercise of kāwanatanga”. The Tribunal is recommending the Crown step down ...1 week ago
- Takutai Moana changes another assault on Te Tiriti
The Government must abandon its Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act interventions after the Waitangi Tribunal found it was committing gross breaches of the Treaty. ...1 week ago
- Greens call on Govt to leave Te Reo in schools alone
As Te Wiki o te Reo Māori approaches, the Government is considering deprioritising teaching Te Reo Māori in our schools. ...1 week ago
- Govt cannot ignore racism
The Government’s directive to the public service to ignore race is nothing more than a dog whistle and distraction from the structural racism we need to address. ...1 week ago
- Release: Lemauga Lydia Sosene to take medical leave
Labour’s Mangere MP Lemauga Lydia Sosene has been diagnosed with breast cancer and will shortly take medical leave. ...1 week ago
- Potential intelligence sharing with Israel must be investigated
Concerns have been raised that our spy arrangements may mean that intelligence is being shared between Aotearoa and Israel. An urgent inquiry must be launched in response to this. ...1 week ago
- Release: Charter schools undermine our education system
The Government is taking a wrecking ball to our public education system by reinstating charter schools. ...1 week ago
- Youngest MP to travel to Canada to accept Politician of the Year Award
Aotearoa’s Youngest Member of Parliament, and Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, will travel to Montreal to accept the One Young World Politician of the Year Award next week. The One Young World Politician of the Year Award was created in 2018 to recognise the most promising young politicians between ...1 week ago
- Greens celebrate huge step forward for ADHD community
The Greens welcome today’s long-coming announcement by Pharmac of consultation to remove the special authority renewal criteria for methylphenidate, dexamfetamine and modafinil and to fund lisdexamfetamine. ...1 week ago
- Release: Millions to be spent dividing NZ for no reason
The National Party is wasting millions of dollars allowing David Seymour’s Treaty Principals Bill to be drafted and go to Select Committee. ...1 week ago
- Release: New Zealanders departing our shores at a record rate
The Migration figures released by Stats NZ today show National is continuing to drive Kiwis away from New Zealand in record numbers. ...1 week ago
- Te Tai Tokerau MP Slams Govt Overreach in Scrapping Māori Wards
Mema Paremata for Te Tai Tokerau, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, has reflected on the decisions made by the councils of the North amidst the government’s push to remove Māori Wards and weaken mana whenua representation. “Actions taken by the Kaipara District Council to remove Māori Wards are the embodiment of the eradication ...1 week ago
- Govt already seeking advice on Treaty referendum
On one hand, the Prime Minister has assured Aotearoa that his party will not support the Treaty Principles Bill beyond first reading, but on the other, his Government has already sought advice on holding a referendum on our founding document. ...1 week ago
- Release: Aged care will be worse off if redesign rushed
New Zealanders needing aged care support and the people who care for them will be worse off if the Government pushes through a flawed and rushed redesign of dementia and aged care. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt fails hundreds of workers as mills close
Labour is devastated at news hundreds of workers are set to lose their jobs following the closure of Winstone Pulp mills. ...1 week ago
- Job losses from mill closures consequence of Govt inaction
Hundreds of jobs lost as a result of pulp mill closures in the Ruapehu District are a consequence of government inaction in addressing the shortfalls of our electricity network. ...2 weeks ago
- Ngarewa-Packer devastated for Ruapehu following WPI closure
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru is devastated for the Ruapehu community following today’s decision to close two Winstone Pulp mills. “My heart goes out to all the workers, their whānau, and the wider Ruapehu community affected by the closure of Winstone Pulp International,” said Ngarewa-Packer. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cabinet should stop the Treaty Principles Bill
National Party Ministers have a majority in Cabinet and can stop David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, which even the Prime Minister has described as “divisive and unhelpful.” ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Staff gagged to keep fast track list secret
The National Government is so determined to hide the list of potential projects that will avoid environmental scrutiny it has gagged Ministry for the Environment staff from talking about it. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour challenges Te Whatu Ora gag orders
Labour has complained to the Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission about the high number of non-disclosure agreements that have effectively gagged staff at Te Whatu Ora Health NZ from talking about anything relating to their work. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned after letter from Christian leaders
The Green Party is once again urging the Prime Minister to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill as a letter from more than 400 Christian leaders calls for the proposed legislation to be dropped. ...2 weeks ago
- Sign the petition: Keep military-style firearms off our streets
Help us tell the Government that reintroducing military-style firearms should not be up for debate. ...2 weeks ago
- Vast majority of councils support Māori wards
Councils across the country have now decided where they stand regarding Māori wards, with a resounding majority in favour of keeping them in what is a significant setback for the Government. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government on the wrong side of Māori wards
The National-led government has been given a clear message from the local government sector, as almost all councils reject the Government’s bid to treat Māori wards different to other wards. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki
The Labour Party congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki on being crowned as the eighth Te Ariki Nui – head of Te Kiingitanga. ...2 weeks ago
- Tourism on the table for Pacific Ministers’ meet-up
Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey will meet with Trade and Tourism Minister of Australia Don Farrell and Fiji Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica in Rotorua this weekend for a trilateral tourism discussion. “Like in New Zealand, tourism plays a significant role in Australia and Fiji’s economy, contributing massively to ...21 hours ago - Young people report on family and sexual violence
The Te Puna Aonui Expert Advisory Group for Children and Young People has presented its report today on improving family and sexual violence outcomes for young people, to the Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour. The presentation at the Auckland event was an opportunity for ...21 hours ago
- $18 million being invested in the victims of crime
The Government is putting more than $18 million towards improving the experience of the criminal justice system for victims, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Minister for Children Karen Chhour say. “No one should experience crime, but for those who through no fault of their own become victims, they need to ...21 hours ago
- Landmark phonics check in te reo Māori
For the first time, schools can use a purpose-built tool to check how a child is progressing in reading through te reo Māori. “Around 45 schools are trialling a New Zealand first te reo Māori phonics check, known as Hihira Weteoro. It will help kaiako (teachers) focus on what ākonga ...22 hours ago
- New sea walls safeguard Ōpōtiki’s transformation
Two new breakwater walls at Pākihikura (Ōpōtiki) Harbour will provide boats with safe harbour access to support the continued growth of aquaculture in Bay of Plenty, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones say. The Ministers and leaders from Tē Tāwharau o Te Whakatōhea and other ...1 day ago
- Kitmap to improve access to science infrastructure
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced an online platform to optimise the use of New Zealand’s science and technology research infrastructure and to link the public and private sector. “This country is home to world-class science, technology, and engineering expertise. Kitmap is set to empower Kiwi innovators, ...1 day ago
- Driving the uptake of low emission heavy vehicles
The Government has launched the Low Emissions Heavy Vehicle Fund (LEHVF) to promote innovation and offset the cost of hundreds of heavy vehicles powered by clean technologies, Energy Minister Simeon Brown and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts say. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan ...1 day ago
- Speech on replacing the Resource Management Act
Replacing the RMA Hon Chris Bishop: Good morning, it is great to be with you. Can I first acknowledge the Resource Management Law Association for hosting us here today. Can I also acknowledge my Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Simon Court, who is on stage with me. He has assisted me in establishing the ...1 day ago
- Replacement for the Resource Management Act takes shape
Two new laws will be developed to replace the Resource Management Act (RMA), with the enjoyment of property rights as their guiding principle, RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Parliamentary Under-Secretary Simon Court say. “The RMA was passed with good intentions in 1991 but has proved a failure in practice. ...1 day ago
- Tough laws pass to make gang life uncomfortable
Legislation passed through Parliament today will provide police and the courts with additional tools to crack down on gangs that peddle misery and intimidation throughout New Zealand, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “From November 21, gang insignia will be banned in all public places, courts will be able to issue non-consorting orders, and ...2 days ago
- New levy rates set to ensure continued funding of FENZ
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the rates for the redesigned levy that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) from July 2026. “Earlier this year FENZ consulted publicly on a 5.2 percent increase to the levy. I was not convinced that ...2 days ago
- Police allocate Officers to Beat and Gang Units
The Coalition Government welcomes Police’s announcement today to deploy more police on the beat and staff to Gang Disruption Units. An additional 70 officers will be allocated to Community Beat Teams across towns and regional centres. This builds on the deployment of beat officers in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch CBDs ...2 days ago
- Consultation begins on significant updates to the biosecurity system
Proposals to strengthen the country’s vital biosecurity system, including higher fines for passengers bringing in undeclared high-risk goods, greater flexibility around importing requirements, and fairer cost sharing for biosecurity responses have been released today for public consultation. Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says “The future is about resilience and the 30-year-old ...2 days ago
- Wānaka community to benefit from new overnight health service
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says an Overnight Acute Care Service opening in October will provide people in Wānaka and the surrounding area with the assurance of quality overnight care closer to home. “When I was in Wānaka earlier this year, I announced funding for an overnight health service – ...2 days ago
- Preventing potholes with data-driven technology
The Government is rolling out data collection vans across the country to better understand the condition of our road network to prevent potholes from forming in the first place, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Increasing productivity to help rebuild our economy is a key priority for the Government and increasing ...2 days ago
- GDP data shows effect of high interest rates
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the quarter to June 2024 reinforces how an extended period of high interest rates has meant tough times for families, businesses, and communities, but recent indications show the economy is starting to bounce back, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ data released today ...2 days ago
- NZ to host first Fiji, Australia trilateral trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua
Trade Minister Todd McClay will host Fijian Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica and Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell for trilateral trade talks in Rotorua this weekend. “Fiji is one of the largest economies in the Pacific and is a respected partner for Australia and New Zealand,” Mr McClay says. Australia and New Zealand ...2 days ago
- NZ hosts Annual CER Trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua
Trade Minister Todd McClay will meet with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell for the annual Closer Economic Relations (CER) Trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua this weekend. “CER is our most comprehensive agreement covering trade, labour mobility, harmonisation of standards and political cooperation. It underpins an important trading relationship worth $32 ...2 days ago
- Government proposing changes to jury trials
The Government is seeking the public’s feedback on two major changes to jury trials in order to improve court timeliness, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “The first proposal would increase the offence threshold at which a defendant can decide to have their case heard by a jury. “The second is ...2 days ago
- Business key to regional economic dialogue
Local businesses and industries need to be front and centre in conversations about how regions plan to grow their economies, Regional Development Shane Jones says. The nationwide series of summits aims to facilitate conversations about regional economic growth and opportunities to drive productivity, prosperity and resilience through the Coalition Government’s Regional ...2 days ago
- More funding for Growing Up in New Zealand study
The Government is investing $16.8 million over the next four years to extend the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) Longitudinal Study. GUiNZ is New Zealand’s largest longitudinal study of child health and wellbeing and has followed the lives of more than 6000 children born in 2009 and 2010, and ...2 days ago
- Tough targets for charter schools will raise achievement
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that Charter Schools will face a combination of minimum performance thresholds and stretch targets for achievement, attendance and financial sustainability. “Charter schools will be given greater freedom to respond to diverse student needs in innovative ways, but they will be held to a much ...2 days ago
- NZ votes for Middle East resolution at UN
New Zealand has voted for a United Nations resolution on Israel’s presence in occupied Palestinian Territory with some caveats, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand’s yes vote is fundamentally a signal of our strong support for international law and the need for a two-state solution,” Mr Peters says. “The Israel-Palestine ...2 days ago
- Honouring the legacy of New Zealand’s suffragists
Suffrage Day is an opportunity to reaffirm New Zealand’s commitment to ensuring we continue to be a world leader in gender equality, Minister for Women Nicola Grigg says. “On 19 September, 131 years ago, New Zealand became the first nation in the world where women gained the right to vote. ...2 days ago
- Foreign Minister to travel to New York, French Polynesia
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is travelling to New York next week to attend the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, followed by a visit to French Polynesia. “In the context of the myriad regional and global crises, our engagements in New York will demonstrate New Zealand’s strong support for ...3 days ago
- Thanking social workers on their national day
“Today, on Aotearoa New Zealand Social Workers’ Day, I would like to recognise the tremendous effort social workers make not just today, but every day,” Children’s Minister and Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour says. “I thank all those working on the front line for ...3 days ago
- Minister of State for Trade heads to Laos for ASEAN meetings
Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg will travel to Laos this week to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Ministers’ Meetings in Vientiane. “The Government is committed to strengthening our relationship with ASEAN,” Ms Grigg says. “With next year marking 50 years since New Zealand became ...3 days ago
- Members appointed to retail crime MAG
The Government has appointed four members to the Ministerial Advisory Group for victims of retail crime, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee say. “I am delighted to appoint Michael Hill’s national retail manager Michael Bell to the group, as well as Waikato community advocate and business ...3 days ago
- Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation AGM and Conference 2024
It’s my pleasure to be here to join the opening of the NZNO AGM and Conference for 2024. First, I’d like to thank NZNO Kaiwhakahaere Kerri Nuku, NZNO President, Anne Daniels, and Chief Execuitve Paul Gaulter for inviting me to speak today. Thank you also to all the NZNO members ...3 days ago
- Improvements for New Zealand authors
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says changes to the Public Lending Right [PLR] scheme will help benefit both the National Library and authors who have books available in New Zealand libraries. “I am amending the regulations so that eligible authors will no longer have to reapply every year ...4 days ago
- Minister commends Police for gang operation
Police Minister Mark Mitchell congratulates Police for the outstanding result of their most recent operation, targeting the Comancheros. “That Police have been able to round up the majority of the Comancheros leadership, and many of their patched members and prospects, shows not only the capability of Police, but also shows ...4 days ago
- New appointments to the EPA board
Environment Minister Penny Simmonds has announced a major refresh of the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) board with four new appointments and one reappointment. The new board members are Barry O’Neil, Jennifer Scoular, Alison Stewart and Nancy Tuaine, who have been appointed for a three-year term ending in August 2027. “I would ...4 days ago
- Enabling rural recovery works in Hawke’s Bay
Cabinet has approved an Order in Council to enable severe weather recovery works to continue in the Hawke’s Bay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Mark Mitchell say. “Cyclone Gabrielle and the other severe weather events in early 2023 caused significant loss and damage to ...4 days ago
- FamilyBoost childcare payment registrations open
From today, low-to-middle-income families with young children can register for the new FamilyBoost payment, to help them meet early childhood education (ECE) costs. The scheme was introduced as part of the Government’s tax relief plan to help Kiwis who are doing it tough. “FamilyBoost is one of the ways we ...4 days ago
- Prioritising victims with tougher sentences
The Government has today agreed to introduce sentencing reforms to Parliament this week that will ensure criminals face real consequences for crime and victims are prioritised, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. "In recent years, there has been a concerning trend where the courts have imposed fewer and shorter prison sentences ...5 days ago
- Targets data confirms rise in violent crime
The first quarterly report on progress against the nine public service targets show promising results in some areas and the scale of the challenge in others, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “Our Government reinstated targets to focus our public sector on driving better results for New Zealanders in health, education, ...5 days ago
- Asia Foundation Board appointments announced
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced the appointments of Hone McGregor, Professor David Capie, and John Boswell to the Board of the Asia New Zealand Foundation. Bede Corry, Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade, has also been appointed as an ex-officio member. The new trustees join Dame Fran Wilde (Chair), ...5 days ago
- Endeavour Fund projects for economic growth
New Zealand’s largest contestable science fund is investing in 72 new projects to address challenges, develop new technology and support communities, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. “This Endeavour Fund round being funded is focused on economic growth and commercial outputs,” Ms Collins says. “It involves funding of more ...5 days ago
- Social Services Providers Whakamanawa National Conference 16 September 2024
Thank you for the introduction and the invitation to speak to you here today. I am honoured to be here in my capacity as Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, and Minister for Children. Thank you for creating a space where we can all listen and learn, ...5 days ago
- Parihaka infrastructure upgrades funded
The Government will provide a $5.8 million grant to improve water infrastructure at Parihaka in Taranaki, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka say. “This grant from the Regional Infrastructure Fund will have a multitude of benefits for this hugely significant cultural site, including keeping local ...5 days ago
- ACC trial of artificial intelligence sees boost in quality, speed of work
ACC is first out of the blocks, and the work is "of great interest across the other government departments". ...3 hours ago - High Court judgment clears path for Greens to waka jump Darleen Tana – expert
It is unlikely Tana will be able to seek another order to stop the Greens holding a meeting to vote on her fate, Professor Andrew Geddis says. ...5 hours ago
- SovCits used fake ID to access Parliament, Government House, police say
Members of a group believe they are exempt from NZ law used fake ID to reach the PMs floor, according to a police presentation. ...7 hours ago
- Short story: Abicene, by Michael Hodder
When Brian alerted Andy that an owl was caught in the netting, he had been puzzled, wondering how such a large bird could have got inside. Its talons had got caught on the outside. Andy guessed it was the morepork which he had heard most nights over the past year – ...7 hours ago - The Secret Diary of .. The Comancheros
MONDAYMemo to all staff: Hope you all had wonderful weekends! Please send your encrypted messages with a detailed list of what you’re working on today and I’ll see you on an all-hands Zoom call at 0930.And just a reminder to please file your cash earnings in microwave ovens. There are ...7 hours ago
- A new exhibition breathes life into Te Reo Māori documents
The first official copy books in te reo Māori; a map of Aotearoa labelled ‘New Munster’ and ‘New Ulster’; the original manuscripts capturing karakia and waiata for the first time; and a copy of The Cat in the Hat in te reo.All taonga that are part of a new exhibition, ...7 hours ago
- Unbought gems: Who will buy New Zealand’s largest gemstone collection?
Alex Casey visits the largest gemstone collection in the country, and meets the 85-year-old owner trying to Marie Kondo the lot. Despite its charming name, someone once warned me that Birdlings Flat was like a place from the Twilight Zone. Hang a right off the winding roads to Akaroa and ...7 hours ago - Beware the online menus with AI food photos
Local eateries using AI images may be at risk of duping their customers, but a lack of legislation means they’re not breaking the law. You notice something’s a bit off straight away. The macaroni looks too smooth, the miscellaneous herb is too miscellaneous and the sauce kinda looks like it’s ...7 hours ago
- The Weekend: Big frick energy
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. There’s something very funny about the word frick. Perhaps it’s the Christian undertones, popularised by kids who were too god-fearing to say the bad f-word (but probably just god-fearing enough to say the other bad f-word). It might sound like a milder version ...8 hours ago
- ‘A crisis situation’: Guy Montgomery’s live TV toilet nightmare
Comedian Guy Montgomery takes us through his life in television, including a What Now nightmare and the comedic genius of Goldstein from the ASB ads. To the untrained eye, Guy Montgomery appears to be one of the busiest people in comedy right now. With both the local and Australian versions ...8 hours ago
- ‘Perfect on a dusty Sunday’: Mohi and Chase Woods’ perfect weekend playlist
Waiata Anthems singers Mohi and Chase Woods share their perfect weekend playlist. Mohi (Ngāpuhi, Te Rarawa, Ngāi Te Rangi and Ngāti Kahungunu ki Te Wairoa) and Chase Woods (Waikato) are both friends and collaborators. Having previously teamed up on Mohi’s single ‘Hoki Mai Rā’ in July, the two will now ...8 hours ago
- Podcast: Will Kiwibank step into the ring with the big four?
In a candid chat on When the Facts Change, Kiwibank chief executive Steve Jurkovich lays out his vision for the bank’s future – one where it can step up and truly challenge the big four Aussie-owned banks. But while he has high hopes, Jurkovich is quick to warn it won’t ...8 hours ago
- Almost all of the Hobbits in the Tolkienverse, ranked from worst to best
To celebrate International Hobbit Day on September 22 (Bilbo and Frodo Baggins’ birthdays), we’ve decided who of all the furry-footed creatures is best. Concerning Hobbits and Spinoff rankings, it really feels like there is not a lot left to be said or ranked. Well, on International Hobbit Day, boy do ...8 hours ago
- The first Wellingtonian
Hundreds of years ago, a man named Tara founded the first permanent human settlement in Wellington. The city still bears his name: Te Whanganui a Tara. But what do we actually know about him? If you look out at the right angle from Ray Ahipene-Mercer’s house in Breaker Bay, you ...8 hours ago
- Gentrification isn’t inevitable − it can hinge on how residents view their neighborhood
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Korver-Glenn, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Families on bikes at a July Fourth parade in Houston’s Northside neighborhood. Jimmy Castillo, CC BY-ND Gentrification has become a familiar story in cities across the United States. The ...12 hours ago - Discrimination faced by indigenous Papuans ‘isn’t something new’, says disturbing new rights r...
By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Racism, torture and arbitrary arrests are some examples of discrimination indigenous Papuans have dealt with over the last 60 years from Indonesia, according to a new report by Human Rights Watch. The report, If It’s Not Racism, What Is It? Discrimination and other abuses ...15 hours ago
- Wā Pātai: Māori language week at Parliament
The House - Parliament was buzzing with te reo this week - but how common is this, really? ...15 hours ago
- Otago land and water plan to continue, despite government’s ‘strong preference’ it...
Regional councillors have voted to continue work on the plan, despite ministers suggesting they hold off until the government confirms its policy direction. ...16 hours ago
- Many people in the Pacific lack access to adequate toilets – and climate change makes things worse
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benny Zuse Rousso, Research Fellow, International Water Centre, Griffith University Pvince73/Shutterstock The Pacific Islands may evoke images of sprawling coastlines and picturesque scenery. But while this part of the world might look like paradise, many local residents are grappling with a ...18 hours ago
- New Law To Ban Gang Patches A Dangerous Move For New Zealand
Censorship can be a natural impulse to things we don’t like, but it’s better to know when hateful or offensive ideas exist. Otherwise, they’re buried underground to fester and can crop up unexpectedly. We see this legislation no differently. ...18 hours ago - Government urged to intervene in Cook Strait ferry woes
There are fears lives could be lost if the government doesn't step in to bring the country's ailing Cook Strait ferry services up to scratch. ...18 hours ago
- Is life getting better for China’s tech billionaires?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wenting He, PhD candidate of International Relations, Australian National University The skyline in Shenzhen, the city that is home to many of China’s largest tech companies. asharkyu/Shutterstock According to the latest Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Pony Ma, co-founder of Tencent Holdings, is once ...19 hours ago
- Fiji 2000 coup leader George Speight granted presidential pardon
RNZ Pacific The man behind the 2000 coup in Fiji, George Speight, and the head of the mutineers, former soldier Shane Stevens, have been granted presidential pardons. In a statement yesterday, the Fiji Correction Service said the pair were among seven prisoners who has been granted pardons by the President, ...20 hours ago
- Supreme Court orders government to pay in advance for Māori coastline appeal
In a rare decision, the country's top court has told the Crown it must give advance financial support to a group of hapū challenging it. ...20 hours ago
- Darleen Tana fails High Court bid against Green Party investigation
Green co-leader Chloe Swarbrick says the party welcomes the ruling and will now consider its next steps. ...20 hours ago
- Resource Management Act to be replaced by two new laws
They'll ditch rules that "invite every Tom, Dick, and Harry to vexatiously object to peaceful use and development", the government says. ...20 hours ago
- Are sports stars who are caught using illegal drugs unfairly vilified?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Wilson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney JFontan/Shutterstock With the Paris Olympics and Paralympics wrapped up, and leading Australian sports codes coming to an end of their 2024 ...21 hours ago
- Flood gates could reopen for Māori claimants after landmark ruling
The Courts have ruled the Crown must cover the costs of customary marine title claims, but where will the money come from? A landmark Supreme Court ruling could once again ensure Māori have adequate resourcing to pursue customary marine title claims, despite the government’s recent drastic raising of the threshold ...21 hours ago
- RNZ’s online surge could start to worry private media
Public broadcaster RNZ might be struggling to stem its falls in radio listenership, but the audience for its website rnz.co.nz is soaring.In the latest Nielsen online audience figures for August, RNZ hit 1.56 million unique readers for the month, up from under a million a year ago and less than ...21 hours ago
- Referendum on four-year political terms may come by next election – Luxon
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he may bring four-year political terms to a national vote at the next election. ...21 hours ago
- Afghan women have been robbed of health care, education and now their voices. But they won’t remai...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hutchinson, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Australian National University Last month, the Taliban passed a new “vice and virtue” law, making it illegal for women to speak in public. Under the law, women can also be punished if they are heard singing ...22 hours ago
- What is ‘dynamic pricing’ for concert tickets? It can cost you hundreds of dollars while you que...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Green, Research Fellow, Centre for Social and Cultural Research, Griffith University When tickets for Green Day’s 2025 Australian tour went on sale, fans joined a queue – a ritual that has been practised for decades on footpaths, on phones, and now ...22 hours ago
- Week in Politics: ‘Crime wave’ puts government’s target in doubt
Analysis - Crime throws the government's reduction target into doubt and Labour's Chris Hipkins has to deal with a bad poll. ...22 hours ago
- India is in the midst of an electric vehicle revolution – and Australia should tap in
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David T. Hill, Emeritus Professor of Southeast Asian Studies, Indo-Pacific Research Centre, Murdoch University David T. Hill You don’t have to be in India long to appreciate just how dramatic its electric vehicle revolution is. Whether it’s electric two-wheelers or trucks, ...22 hours ago
- Supreme Court orders Govt to pay in advance for Māori coastline appeal
In a rare decision, heavy with judicial and political implications, the country’s top court has told the Crown it must give advance financial support to a group of hapū challenging it over the Marine and Coastal Areas Act.The Supreme Court’s intervention, ahead of seven appeals scheduled before it in November ...23 hours ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘???’ by Freya Daly Sadgrove
A new poem by Freya Daly Sadgrove. ??? where you wake is black and very far back behind your eyes back past your whipping branches and backer far backer than bone and blood ...23 hours ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending September 20
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Greene Lyon by Alan Goodwin (Quentin Wilson Publishing, $38) An intriguing new local release. Here’s ...23 hours ago
- Why is pain so exhausting?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Henry, Physiotherapist and PhD candidate, Body in Mind Research Group, University of South Australia simona pilolla 2/Shutterstock One of the most common feelings associated with persisting pain is fatigue and this fatigue can become overwhelming. People with chronic pain can ...24 hours ago
- OpenAI’s data hunger raises privacy concerns
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Uri Gal, Professor in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney Last month, OpenAI came out against a yet-to-be enacted Californian law that aims to set basic safety standards for developers of large artificial intelligence (AI) models. This was a change of posture ...24 hours ago
- Ads from Hell: how a pizza brand’s marketing reveals NZ’s shifting religious attitudes
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Fastnedge, Lecturer in Advertising and Brand Creativity, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Controversial advertising holds a mirror up to society. It can unite us in laughter or outrage, spark debates that shape our beliefs – and sometimes expose our ...1 day ago
When do the results start coming in NZ time? Wednesday around noon?
'This is one to watch.' Bigger than West Wing, not as funny and sardonic as Yes Prime Minister. Will rival the Big Bang when the world is said to have been formed out of the void – unfortunately it may illustrate a reverse effect. Don’t wet your pants!
Meaningful results from around 1.30pm. I'll be watching the live feed on fivethirtyeight.com closely, as they will be looking at trends at county level.
Best to start watching around 1.30pm on Wednesday. I'll be turning to fivethirtyeight.com's online feed, with a large number of regional experts analysing data at county level.
Thanks Peter Haynes. So, if I google fivethirtyeight.com I should get it.
Here's a handy-dandy map of poll closing times.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/28/1988730/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Nov-3-2020-poll-closing-times-map
The earliest poll closing times are 6pm eastern standard time (they go off daylight savings this weekend), which will be noon here. But those earliest closures are parts of Indiana and Kentucky, so they're irrelevant (safe Repug) even if they start announcing results while some polling locations in that state are still open.
The earliest states of interest close at 7pm (1pm NZ) and may announce results soon thereafter. Florida and Georgia are the ones to watch. Virginia and Vermont should go Biden, South Carolina should be safe Repug.
North Carolina closes at 7:30 (1:30 NZ, nail biter), along with West Virginia (safe Repug) and Ohio (likely Repug, but if Biden wins he's probably got it in the bag)
8pm has Pennsylvania and Michigan, but they're unlikely to declare because of slow counting of mail ballots. But this is where the Tinyfingers Twittertwat is likely to start shitstirring. If it's a massive Biden blowout, this is where Texas might declare for Biden.
9pm is Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The last of the interesting states.
Various networks may (or may not) provide running updates throughout the day of what they get from exit polls. But I'm not going to pay any attention to that. That exit poll info is iffy at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
Thanks for that Andre. I've transferred to paper doc. for the big day. Mind you, it will depend on whether I am able to cope. The thought of four more years of Trump is terrifying.
Here's a handy summary of likely reporting times and what it likely means…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
If Trump wins I wouldn't be surprised. Biden is starting to look tired and probably prefers to be sitting at home writing his memoirs.
What I am most worried about is the reaction of Trump supporters. I wouldn't rule out the odd pogrom or 2 either way.
Biden should win by a very comfortable margin.
Trump's reaction to a loss is likely to be a demonstration of denial and narcissism that will have to be seen to be believed.
Here's some speculation on what may happen.
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/28/trump-narcissism-psychology-election-loss-pathology-personality-disorders/
I'm kinda worried it will be like the moment familiar to many victims of domestic abuse that finally get together what it takes to leave: "If I can't have you, nobody can"
I suspect there's a plan in place if he goes full retard.
Am not optimistic for a Democratic win despite polls. The polls cannot predict turnout. Many US pundits are being cautious about backing the polls whole heartedly. Agree with Peter Haynes about the 2016 Comey “Bombshell”–I recall thinking “what the…” the second I heard it on RNZ at the time.
The US Electoral system has built in landmines and impedences as has been pointed out many times–40 mill Californians get two Senators, half a mill Montanans get two Senators…
Almost 2000 polling places closed, Mail boxes and sorting machines removed–Wall St Journal says a neighbourhood letter typically now takes six days. Democratic door knocking campaign has turned into ballot uplifting and delivery for voters that will hand them over, now that the intention not to count “late” ballots in some states has been made all too clear by the likes of Justice Kavanaugh.
But, but, don’t Republicans get affected by voter suppression too? The theory is complicated enrolment, removal of drop boxes and polling places, all hit poor and marginalised people the most. Not everyone can afford to go to a state centre to enrol with multiple IDs, or return to change a signature, or to a drop box two hours drive away. Gerrymandered borders for Congress favour Republican voters in some states.
I hope Joe Biden/Kamala Harris can do it against the odds (despite knowing Bernie “wuz robbed”–again.) The Americans, and the world deserve a little peace and quiet, no more Govt by Twitter and religious nutters. Just some stillness, pause for thought, and then back to dealing with Covid and Climate Disaster!
Agree with most of what you say, but… "The polls cannot predict turnout." The polls can and have measured levels of excitement around, and perceived importance of, the election, and intention to vote, and all of these are well up this election. We know that there have been record numbers of early votes cast (as you'd expect), but with lots of evidence of greater determination to vote in the long queues, etc. The experts are predicting "monster" turnout around 150 million. And more younger people are voting.
Polls should always be treated with due caution, and one poll is never enough on its own. But the sheer number of polls at this point of the race in the US, and the consistent margins for Biden in many swing states do augur well. A sophisticated model like Nate Silver's weights for quality of individual pollsters based on history and methods employed, which makes me a lot more comfortable.
And voilà! An excellent summary of voter enthusiasm appears. It's important to note that Democratic voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden as Republicans are about Trump, but they are more enthusiastic about voting. And that's what we are seeing by all accounts. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-say-theyre-fired-up-to-vote-especially-democrats/
And voilà! An excellent summary of voter enthusiasm appears. It's important to note that Democratic voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden as Republicans are about Trump, but they are more enthusiastic about voting. And that's what we are seeing by all accounts.
Some interesting fallout from the MSM Universal Messaging 'Vote Biden…He's Not Trump..and, um, well thats it"..though I suspect this will make some folk in these parts fonder of The Intercept..
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/523402-glenn-greenwald-resigns-from-the-intercept
The electorate is more polarised than ever before
This cannot be overemphasized. Biden leads Trump by about 9 points nationally, but Trump is competitive in enough states that a large (but not unprecedented) polling error in his favour could still lead to his winning a second term.
That we're still talking about the race being moderately competitive is astonishing. The last time a candidate won by more than 9 points was 1984!
In past elections where one candidate has held a lead around this size, the electoral college has been a total blowout. For instance Bush Snr took over 400 EV's in '88 with an 8% margin over Dukakis.
Preliminary US data suggests strong V shaped recovery.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate
The commentators are telling us the key states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. Back in 2016 Trump won all those states and took the presidency.
Biden is ahead in the polls in these states. If he wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, he should be there. In that scenario Trump would have to win Florida and North Carolina to have any chance and in this scenario Nevada would come into play. Biden is currently ahead in Nevada
I think we are on the verge of something big. The early voting suggests an intent, not often seen from American voters.
The aftermath that Peter Haynes talks about is a very real possibility. I hope the authorities are ready for it.
I get my information from http://www.realclearpolitics.com.
Just keep in mind Real Clear Politics poll averages are usually more heavily influenced by Repug-friendly polls than other poll aggregators like fivethirtyeight or 270towin. A state or national poll average from them usually includes Rasmussen reports, that reportedly weights by party identification (which almost all other pollsters consider bad practice because that changes so easily and quickly unlike sex, education, age etc), and/or Trafalgar Group, which have devised a sampling method specifically designed to get responses from hypothetical "shy Trump voters" (and way overestimated Repug vote share in 2018).
So I kinda look at RCP's averages as a likely worst case.
Another wrinkle is that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are likely to be slow to report results from mail-in ballots, because they don't start processing them until Election Day. Mail-in ballots are expected to be heavily in favour of Biden, while in-person on-the-day votes are expected to trend more Repug. That's part of the reason Hair Twitler is trying to set the stage to try to declare victory election night and discard what hasn't been counted by then.
However, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina in particular have good systems for counting early and mail-in ballots. So there's a good chance there is a positive result for Biden on the night in those states lifting him over 270 Electoral College votes, which then reduces the likelihood of violence and chaos.
Biden only needs Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada (all very likely) with Arizona (close) and a district vote from either Nebraska or Maine (most likley).
And he is still competitive in Florida N Carolina and Georgia – so as you note the delay in the final result for Pennsylvania which Trump could try to exploit (Pennsylvania has a Republican House which would deliver their EC votes to Trump) is not likely to be significant with Biden getting to 270 on the night.
What about Ohio and voter suppression tactics
Ohio is very unlikely to be of significance. If Biden wins Ohio, then Ohio will likely be supplying around his 340th to 360th Electoral College votes. About the only scenario in which Ohio has a substantial effect is if Biden wins there by a big enough margin that they declare early in the night and tip Biden's count over 270, and thereby possibly damp down some of the potential chaos and violence.
Any voter suppression is basically a done deal by now, except for maybe armed thugs turning up to polling booths on the day. Any challenges to laws wrongly disenfranchising people basically have to be done and dusted by election day. After election day, the counts go according to the laws as they stand on election day, and there's no mechanism after election day for redressing people getting disenfranchised before election day.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/429552/american-fiasco-record-covid-increase-as-election-looms
MFAT are issuing safe travel warnings to kiwis residing in the US citing pending violence and civil unrest with the pending US presidential election and up until the swearing in of a new president. Sounds pretty much like it is a forgone conclusion there is going to be ructions over there.
For all those with loved ones living there you have my sympathy and understanding of your fears. We have family in Maryland and they are housebound and well aware of what may happen. The pandemic on top of it makes this for a nasty outcome. Lots of good thoughts go to those who are anxious over there.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/us-elections-mfat-issues-safe-travel-warning-of-political-violence/KMFHPIFEDNV2MWNHFKL37ABUKU/
Trump is going to win in an absolute landslide. Looking at both sides of the political spectrum, I don't understand how you can see it any other way.
More than willing to eat humble pie on the 4th (NZ time) but I very confident I won't be.
Define "win in an absolute landslide".
🙄
The only way Chump "wins" anything is through stealing.
He has to "win" this election, for he is toast otherwise. The court cases against him will be flying in thick and fast without the Barr on the Justice Dept. Incitement of domestic terrorism being his latest offence.