web analytics

On the US election.

Written By: - Date published: 9:42 am, October 30th, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, Joe Biden, us politics - Tags:

This year forecasting the U.S. election has an interesting additional element, with Trump and the Republican Party gearing up to steal the election if it is not a landslide for their opponents. First, though, the election itself.

The election is shaping up to be a blue wave. Five days out from election day, Nate Silver’s sophisticated model rates Biden’s chances at 89 in 100. The Democrats have a good chance of winning the Senate and are very nearly certain to win back the House according to this modelling.

But, many people say, we were told in 2016 that Clinton would win. That’s sort of true. Clinton was looking likely to win up until the final days, when the Comey “bombshell” dropped, and she lost 5 points according to the experts. And she did win the popular vote, by almost 3 million. It’s just that she lost three midwestern states by around 40,000 votes in all. The pundits that gave Trump a fair chance of winning should have made that clearer. On election eve, Nate Silver’s model gave Trump a reasonable 29% chance, for example.

It’s true that the pollsters underweighted for uneducated white voters in 2016. However, they aren’t making that mistake again.

Anyway, 2016 is a poor indicator of what will happen in 2020.

For one thing, Trump was standing against the second most unpopular candidate in recent memory (after himself) and managed to capitalise on the baggage she carried. Biden may not be a great orator, but he doesn’t have the huge negatives Clinton did. Attempts to besmirch Biden and his family have not gained the traction that the “Lock her up!” campaign did.

Tellingly, even when Clinton’s support peaked, it was lower than Biden’s has been at any point since he became the Democratic candidate.

For another thing, in 2016 FBI Director Comey gifted Trump the election with his bombshell about the FBI investigating Clinton’s emails only about a week out from election day. There’s been no bombshell this time, and in any case, with more than 80 million early votes cast, the election is already half over with the polls showing Biden clearly in the lead not just across the country, but in those pivotal midwestern states.

Further, there is a much smaller persuadable, undecided vote this time than in 2016 (around 5% according to the polls). The electorate is more polarised than ever before, and Biden’s lead has been remarkably stable since the middle of the year when…

… Covid kicked in and Trump’s abysmal response became clear. The pandemic and Trump’s response has not only displaced the economy as the most salient issue for most voters, but it has also robbed Trump of any claim to superior economic management as the economy has tanked. A double whammy.

Trump was in trouble even before Covid hit, despite what some people said. He’d lost the suburbs, and suburban women in particular, early in the term. The pattern of special and state elections leading up to the 2018 congressional elections foreshadowed a blue wave, and sure enough, the House flipped convincingly, and the Democrats gained at state and local level all over the country. Trump has been one of the most unpopular recent presidents since shortly after he took office. The only presidents with similar disapproval ratings since polling commenced in the middle of last century are Jimmy Carter and H. W. Bush. Both lost.

Trump has also lost other voters, most importantly older voters fearful of Covid and white voters without college degrees. Even more importantly, he has lost the most support amongst this latter group in those very midwestern states that handed him those vital Electoral College votes last time around. The fact that numbers of new Covid cases and hospitalisations are breaking records in Wisconsin and Michigan while voting is underway just adds to Trump’s woes.

Better still, with the exception of Pennsylvania, where Biden’s margin is smaller (at around 5%) than Wisconsin and Michigan, state-level polls are showing that the battleground is in states that Trump won comfortably in 2016 are leaning towards Biden or contestable. These include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, where Biden is marginally ahead in polling, and Ohio and Texas (!), where he is close.

This is good news for Biden, because he has been raising vastly more funding than Trump and is outspending him in these states, forcing Trump onto the defensive over a wide front.

The huge early vote, with legions of new voters, a monster vote overall and higher levels of engagement this year augur well for Biden. Signs are that much larger numbers of young people are voting, another positive sign.

In sum, there’s a small chance that Trump could pull it off again, but it’s not likely.

The problem is that anything less than a convincing win on the night will see the Republicans trying to steal the election. They’ve been remarkably open about it. They are gearing up to challenge results in the key battleground states, especially the validity of mail-in votes, with plans to suspend the counting of those ballots. They will be fighting these legal battles in Republican-controlled states with local and federal courts stacked with Republican judges, and the Supreme Court with its new 6-3 conservative majority.

If they can tie things up enough, Trump has alluded to using the 12th Amendment, which in the event of a contested election result would see the House of Representatives decide the outcome. With each state delegation getting one vote, and the Republicans currently holding the advantage (with more small, rural states), the Republicans could steal the election unless the Democrats can wrestle a few state delegations away from them.

This is not to mention an explosion of violence by the armed thugs under orders from Trump to “standby”, seeking to provoke a backlash from left-wing radicals that would be a pretext for Trump to impose martial law in key Democratic-held cities under the Insurrection Act.

In short, Biden’s likely to win, but he needs to win early and win big if we are to avoid legal chaos and fighting on the streets and a concerted attempt to steal the election. This is one to watch.

Peter Haynes

30 comments on “On the US election. ”

  1. Anne 1

    When do the results start coming in NZ time? Wednesday around noon?

    • greywarshark 1.1

      'This is one to watch.' Bigger than West Wing, not as funny and sardonic as Yes Prime Minister. Will rival the Big Bang when the world is said to have been formed out of the void – unfortunately it may illustrate a reverse effect. Don’t wet your pants!

    • Peter Haynes 1.2

      Meaningful results from around 1.30pm. I'll be watching the live feed on fivethirtyeight.com closely, as they will be looking at trends at county level.

    • Peter Haynes 1.3

      Best to start watching around 1.30pm on Wednesday. I'll be turning to fivethirtyeight.com's online feed, with a large number of regional experts analysing data at county level.

    • Andre 1.4

      Here's a handy-dandy map of poll closing times.

      https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/28/1988730/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Nov-3-2020-poll-closing-times-map

      The earliest poll closing times are 6pm eastern standard time (they go off daylight savings this weekend), which will be noon here. But those earliest closures are parts of Indiana and Kentucky, so they're irrelevant (safe Repug) even if they start announcing results while some polling locations in that state are still open.

      The earliest states of interest close at 7pm (1pm NZ) and may announce results soon thereafter. Florida and Georgia are the ones to watch. Virginia and Vermont should go Biden, South Carolina should be safe Repug.

      North Carolina closes at 7:30 (1:30 NZ, nail biter), along with West Virginia (safe Repug) and Ohio (likely Repug, but if Biden wins he's probably got it in the bag)

      8pm has Pennsylvania and Michigan, but they're unlikely to declare because of slow counting of mail ballots. But this is where the Tinyfingers Twittertwat is likely to start shitstirring. If it's a massive Biden blowout, this is where Texas might declare for Biden.

      9pm is Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The last of the interesting states.

      Various networks may (or may not) provide running updates throughout the day of what they get from exit polls. But I'm not going to pay any attention to that. That exit poll info is iffy at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

  2. millsy 2

    If Trump wins I wouldn't be surprised. Biden is starting to look tired and probably prefers to be sitting at home writing his memoirs.

    What I am most worried about is the reaction of Trump supporters. I wouldn't rule out the odd pogrom or 2 either way.

  3. Stunned Mullet 3

    Biden should win by a very comfortable margin.

    Trump's reaction to a loss is likely to be a demonstration of denial and narcissism that will have to be seen to be believed.

  4. Tiger Mountain 4

    Am not optimistic for a Democratic win despite polls. The polls cannot predict turnout. Many US pundits are being cautious about backing the polls whole heartedly. Agree with Peter Haynes about the 2016 Comey “Bombshell”–I recall thinking “what the…” the second I heard it on RNZ at the time.

    The US Electoral system has built in landmines and impedences as has been pointed out many times–40 mill Californians get two Senators, half a mill Montanans get two Senators…

    Almost 2000 polling places closed, Mail boxes and sorting machines removed–Wall St Journal says a neighbourhood letter typically now takes six days. Democratic door knocking campaign has turned into ballot uplifting and delivery for voters that will hand them over, now that the intention not to count “late” ballots in some states has been made all too clear by the likes of Justice Kavanaugh.

    But, but, don’t Republicans get affected by voter suppression too? The theory is complicated enrolment, removal of drop boxes and polling places, all hit poor and marginalised people the most. Not everyone can afford to go to a state centre to enrol with multiple IDs, or return to change a signature, or to a drop box two hours drive away. Gerrymandered borders for Congress favour Republican voters in some states.

    I hope Joe Biden/Kamala Harris can do it against the odds (despite knowing Bernie “wuz robbed”–again.) The Americans, and the world deserve a little peace and quiet, no more Govt by Twitter and religious nutters. Just some stillness, pause for thought, and then back to dealing with Covid and Climate Disaster!

    • Peter Haynes 4.1

      Agree with most of what you say, but… "The polls cannot predict turnout." The polls can and have measured levels of excitement around, and perceived importance of, the election, and intention to vote, and all of these are well up this election. We know that there have been record numbers of early votes cast (as you'd expect), but with lots of evidence of greater determination to vote in the long queues, etc. The experts are predicting "monster" turnout around 150 million. And more younger people are voting.

      Polls should always be treated with due caution, and one poll is never enough on its own. But the sheer number of polls at this point of the race in the US, and the consistent margins for Biden in many swing states do augur well. A sophisticated model like Nate Silver's weights for quality of individual pollsters based on history and methods employed, which makes me a lot more comfortable.

    • Peter Haynes 4.2

      And voilà! An excellent summary of voter enthusiasm appears. It's important to note that Democratic voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden as Republicans are about Trump, but they are more enthusiastic about voting. And that's what we are seeing by all accounts.

  5. Some interesting fallout from the MSM Universal Messaging 'Vote Biden…He's Not Trump..and, um, well thats it"..though I suspect this will make some folk in these parts fonder of The Intercept..

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/523402-glenn-greenwald-resigns-from-the-intercept

  6. Phil 6

    The electorate is more polarised than ever before

    This cannot be overemphasized. Biden leads Trump by about 9 points nationally, but Trump is competitive in enough states that a large (but not unprecedented) polling error in his favour could still lead to his winning a second term.

    That we're still talking about the race being moderately competitive is astonishing. The last time a candidate won by more than 9 points was 1984!

    In past elections where one candidate has held a lead around this size, the electoral college has been a total blowout. For instance Bush Snr took over 400 EV's in '88 with an 8% margin over Dukakis.

  7. The commentators are telling us the key states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. Back in 2016 Trump won all those states and took the presidency.

    Biden is ahead in the polls in these states. If he wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, he should be there. In that scenario Trump would have to win Florida and North Carolina to have any chance and in this scenario Nevada would come into play. Biden is currently ahead in Nevada

    I think we are on the verge of something big. The early voting suggests an intent, not often seen from American voters.

    The aftermath that Peter Haynes talks about is a very real possibility. I hope the authorities are ready for it.

    I get my information from http://www.realclearpolitics.com.

    • Andre 8.1

      Just keep in mind Real Clear Politics poll averages are usually more heavily influenced by Repug-friendly polls than other poll aggregators like fivethirtyeight or 270towin. A state or national poll average from them usually includes Rasmussen reports, that reportedly weights by party identification (which almost all other pollsters consider bad practice because that changes so easily and quickly unlike sex, education, age etc), and/or Trafalgar Group, which have devised a sampling method specifically designed to get responses from hypothetical "shy Trump voters" (and way overestimated Repug vote share in 2018).

      So I kinda look at RCP's averages as a likely worst case.

  8. Andre 9

    Another wrinkle is that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are likely to be slow to report results from mail-in ballots, because they don't start processing them until Election Day. Mail-in ballots are expected to be heavily in favour of Biden, while in-person on-the-day votes are expected to trend more Repug. That's part of the reason Hair Twitler is trying to set the stage to try to declare victory election night and discard what hasn't been counted by then.

    However, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina in particular have good systems for counting early and mail-in ballots. So there's a good chance there is a positive result for Biden on the night in those states lifting him over 270 Electoral College votes, which then reduces the likelihood of violence and chaos.

    • SPC 9.1

      Biden only needs Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada (all very likely) with Arizona (close) and a district vote from either Nebraska or Maine (most likley).

      And he is still competitive in Florida N Carolina and Georgia – so as you note the delay in the final result for Pennsylvania which Trump could try to exploit (Pennsylvania has a Republican House which would deliver their EC votes to Trump) is not likely to be significant with Biden getting to 270 on the night.

  9. Tricledrown 10

    What about Ohio and voter suppression tactics

    • Andre 10.1

      Ohio is very unlikely to be of significance. If Biden wins Ohio, then Ohio will likely be supplying around his 340th to 360th Electoral College votes. About the only scenario in which Ohio has a substantial effect is if Biden wins there by a big enough margin that they declare early in the night and tip Biden's count over 270, and thereby possibly damp down some of the potential chaos and violence.

      Any voter suppression is basically a done deal by now, except for maybe armed thugs turning up to polling booths on the day. Any challenges to laws wrongly disenfranchising people basically have to be done and dusted by election day. After election day, the counts go according to the laws as they stand on election day, and there's no mechanism after election day for redressing people getting disenfranchised before election day.

  10. Whispering Kate 12

    MFAT are issuing safe travel warnings to kiwis residing in the US citing pending violence and civil unrest with the pending US presidential election and up until the swearing in of a new president. Sounds pretty much like it is a forgone conclusion there is going to be ructions over there.

    For all those with loved ones living there you have my sympathy and understanding of your fears. We have family in Maryland and they are housebound and well aware of what may happen. The pandemic on top of it makes this for a nasty outcome. Lots of good thoughts go to those who are anxious over there.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/us-elections-mfat-issues-safe-travel-warning-of-political-violence/KMFHPIFEDNV2MWNHFKL37ABUKU/

  11. NZ Groover 13

    Trump is going to win in an absolute landslide. Looking at both sides of the political spectrum, I don't understand how you can see it any other way.

    More than willing to eat humble pie on the 4th (NZ time) but I very confident I won't be.

    • Andre 13.1

      Define "win in an absolute landslide".

    • Macro 13.2

      🙄

      The only way Chump "wins" anything is through stealing.

      He has to "win" this election, for he is toast otherwise. The court cases against him will be flying in thick and fast without the Barr on the Justice Dept. Incitement of domestic terrorism being his latest offence.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New visitor attraction to boost tourism
    The opening of the first major new tourism attraction since the global outbreak of COVID-19 closed borders to international travellers will provide a welcome boost to visitor numbers in our largest city, says Tourism Minister Stuart Nash. Mr Nash has this afternoon taken part in the official opening ceremony of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Govt moves on drug checking to keep young New Zealanders safer this summer
    The Government will pass time limited legislation to give legal certainty to drug checking services, so they can carry out their work to keep New Zealanders safer this summer at festivals without fear of prosecution, Health Minister Andrew Little says. Next year the Government will develop and consult on regulations ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Public Service Commissioner reappointed
    Minister for the Public Service Chris Hipkins announced today that Public Service Commissioner Peter Hughes CNZM has been reappointed for three years. The Public Service Commissioner is appointed by the Governor-General on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. “Mr Hughes’ reappointment reflects the need for strong leadership and continuity to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Pōwhiri marks the start of a critical year for APEC
    New Zealand kicked off its APEC host year today, with a pōwhiri taking place on Wellington’s waterfront with local iwi Te Atiawa, and a number of Government ministers welcoming representatives from the other 20 APEC economies. “APEC is a hugely important international event, and New Zealand is hosting amidst the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Speech at APEC 21 Opening Pōwhiri
    9am, Tuesday 1 DecemberTe Whare Waka o Pōneke, Wellington Central He Mihi Kei aku rangatira no ngātapito e whā o te ao huri noa, tātou e huihui mai nei. Tēnā rā kōutou katoa. He tangiapakura ki ngā tini aituā kei waenganui i a tātou, ka tangi tonu te ngākau ki ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Government extends business debt relief to October 2021
    To assist with the ongoing economic recovery from COVID-19, rules allowing affected businesses to put their debt on hold have been extended by 10 months. “New Zealand’s economy is recovering better than we expected, but the impacts of the pandemic are far-reaching and some businesses need continued support to keep ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Bill introduced to support workers with 10 days sick leave
    The Government is delivering on a key commitment by introducing a Bill to Parliament to expand sick leave entitlements from five days to ten days a year, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood announced today. “COVID-19 has shown how important it is to stay at home when people are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Progress on pay equity for DHB staff
    Today’s initial agreement between DHBs and the PSA on pay equity for clerical and administration staff is an important step toward better, fairer pay for this crucial and largely female workforce, Health Minister Andrew Little says. If ratified, the agreement between the Public Service Association and the country’s 20 District ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Iconic Milford Track officially reopens
    One of New Zealand’s premier hikes and a cornerstone of the Te Anau community, the Milford Track has officially reopened, “From today, hikers booked on the popular Great Walk will be able to complete the walk end-to-end for the first time since early February,” Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Support for farmers beefed up ahead of La Niña
    Further funding for feed support services and new animal welfare coordinators will help farmers who continue to feel the effects of an extended drought, says Rural Communities Minister Damien O’Connor. “In March this year, I classified the drought in the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chathams ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Next steps for Christchurch Hospital campus redevelopment
    Canterbury DHB will be better placed to respond to future demand for services and continue to deliver high quality care, with the next stage of the campus redevelopment programme confirmed, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Government has approved $154 million in funding for the construction of a third tower ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five Power Defence Arrangements Defence Ministers’ Joint Statement
    The Defence Ministers from Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and United Kingdom reaffirmed their nations’ continued commitment to the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), and commended the achievements over the past 49 years as the FPDA moves towards its 50th Anniversary in 2021.  The Ministers recognised the FPDA’s significant role ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding protects health of Hawke’s Bay waterways
    A joint Government and Hawke’s Bay Regional Council project will invest $4.2 million to protect local waterways, enhance biodiversity and employ local people, Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   Over two years, the Hāpara Takatū Jobs for Nature project will fence 195km of private land to exclude stock from vulnerable ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Year border exception for seasonal workers in the horticulture and wine industries
    2000 additional RSE workers to enter New Zealand early next year employers must pay these workers at least $22.10 an hour employers will cover costs of managed isolation for the RSE workers RSE workers will be paid the equivalent of 30 hours work a week while in isolation From January ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government increases support for New Zealanders to work in seasonal jobs
    The Government is offering further financial support for unemployed New Zealanders to take on seasonal work. These new incentives include: Up to $200 per week for accommodation costs $1000 incentive payment for workers who complete jobs of six weeks or longer increasing wet weather payments when people can’t work to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government receives Royal Commission of Inquiry report into the Terrorist Attack on Christchurch Mos...
    Minister for Internal Affairs Jan Tinetti has today received the Royal Commission of Inquiry report into the Terrorist Attack on Christchurch Mosques, and will table it in Parliament on Tuesday December 8. “I know this will have been a challenging process for whānau, survivors and witnesses of the terrorist attack ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand Government to declare a climate emergency
    The Government will declare a climate emergency next week, Climate Change Minister James Shaw said today.                                       “We are in the midst of a climate crisis that will impact on nearly every ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Call for urgent action on Pacific conservation
    A declaration on the urgency of the global biodiversity crisis and the need for immediate, transformative action in the Pacific was agreed at a pan-Pacific conference today. The 10th Pacific Islands Conference on Nature Conservation and Protected Areas is taking place this week across the Pacific.  Minister of Conservation Kiritapu ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech from the throne
    E aku hoa i te ara o te whai, Kia kotahi tā tātou takahi i te kō, ko tōku whiwhi kei tō koutou tautoko mai. Ko tāku ki a koutou, hei whakapiki manawa mōku. He horomata rangatira te mahi, e rite ai te whiwhinga a te ringatuku, me te ringakape ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Keynote address to Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand conference
    Speech to the CAANZ conference - November 19, 2020 Thank you, Greg, (Greg Haddon, MC) for the welcome. I’d like to acknowledge John Cuthbertson from CAANZ, the Commissioner of Inland Revenue Naomi Ferguson, former fellow MP and former Minister of Revenue, Peter Dunne, other guest speakers and CAANZ members. I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Expert independent advisory group appointed to strengthen the future of Māori broadcasting
    A panel of seven experts are adding their support to help shape the future of Māori broadcasting, Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson has announced today. “Today I will meet with some of the most experienced Māori broadcasters, commentators and practitioners in the field. They have practical insights on the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government to review housing settings
    New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected economic performance has flowed through to housing demand, so the Government will review housing settings to improve access to the market, the Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “Our focus is on improving access to the housing market for first home buyers and ensuring house price growth ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Crown accounts reflect Govt’s careful economic management
    The better-than-expected Crown accounts released today show the Government’s careful management of the COVID-19 health crisis was the right approach to support the economy. As expected, the Crown accounts for the year to June 2020 show the operating balance before gains and losses, or OBEGAL, was in deficit. However that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Community launch marks next step in addressing racism in education
    The launch of Te Hurihanganui in Porirua today is another important milestone in the work needed to address racism in the education system and improve outcomes for Māori learners and their whānau, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis says. Budget 2019 included $42 million over three years to put Te Hurihanganui ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to consider recommendations on DNA use in criminal investigations
    The Minister of Justice has received the Law Commission’s recommending changes to the law governing the way DNA is used in criminal investigations. The report, called The Use of DNA in Criminal Investigations – Te Whahamahi I te Ira Tangata I ngā Mātai Taihara, recommends new legislation to address how ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Wakatū Nelson regional hui on trade
    First, I want to express my thanks to Te Taumata for this hui and for all the fantastic work you are doing for Māori in the trade space. In the short time that you’ve been operating you’ve already contributed an enormous amount to the conversation, and developed impressive networks.  I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Primary Industries Summit
    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about the significant contribution the food and fibres sector makes to New Zealand and how this Government is supporting that effort. I’d like to start by acknowledging our co-Chairs, Terry Copeland and Mavis Mullins, my colleague, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Fast track referrals will speed up recovery and boost jobs and home building
    The Government is taking action to increase jobs, speed up the economic recovery and build houses by putting three more projects through its fast track approval process. “It’s great to see that the fast-track consenting process is working. Today we have referred a mix of potential projects that, if approved, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Papakāinga provides critically needed homes in Hastings
    A papakāinga opened today by the Minister for Māori Development the Hon Willie Jackson will provide whānau with much needed affordable rental homes in Hastings. The four home papakāinga in Waiōhiki is the first project to be completed under the ‘Hastings Place Based’ initiative. This initiative is a Government, Hastings ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand ready to host APEC virtually
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership of APEC earlier today, when she joined leaders from the 21 APEC economies virtually for the forum’s final 2020 meeting. “We look forward to hosting a fully virtual APEC 2021 next year. While this isn’t an in-person meeting, it will be one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Revival of Māori Horticulturists
    The rapid revival of Māori horticulture was unmistakeable at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy Awards, with 2020 marking the first time this iconic Māori farming event was dedicated to horticulture enterprises. Congratulating finalists at the Awards, Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson said growing large-scale māra kai is part of Māori DNA. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Emergency benefit to help temporary visa holders
    From 1 December, people on temporary work, student or visitor visas who can’t return home and or support themselves may get an Emergency Benefit from the Ministry of Social Development, Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced today. Previously, temporary visa holders in hardship because of COVID-19 have had ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • School sustainability projects to help boost regional economies
    Forty one schools from the Far North to Southland will receive funding for projects that will reduce schools’ emissions and save them money, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. This is the second round of the Sustainability Contestable Fund, and work will begin immediately. The first round announced in April ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Farmer-led projects to improve water health in Canterbury and Otago
    More than $6 million will be spent on helping farmers improve the health of rivers, wetlands, and habitat biodiversity in Canterbury and Otago, as well as improving long-term land management practices, says Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. Four farmer-led catchment group Jobs for Nature projects have between allocated between $176,000 and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Tupu Aotearoa continues expansion to Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman & Northl...
    Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman and Northland will benefit from the expansion of the Tupu Aotearoa programme announced today by the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. The programme provides sustainable employment and education pathways and will be delivered in partnership with three providers in Northland and two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New primary school and classrooms for 1,200 students in South Island
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins unveiled major school building projects across the South Island during a visit to Waimea College in Nelson today. It’s part of the Government’s latest investment of $164 million to build new classrooms and upgrade schools around the country. “Investments like this gives the construction industry certainty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister of Māori Development pays tribute to Rudy Taylor
      Today the Minister of Māori Development, alongside other Government Ministers and MP’s said their final farewells to Nga Puhi Leader Rudy Taylor.  “Rudy dedicated his life to the betterment of Māori, and his strong approach was always from the ground up, grassroots, sincere and unfaltering”  “Over the past few ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister to attend APEC Leaders’ Summit
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will attend the annual APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and associated events virtually today and tomorrow. “In a world where we cannot travel due to COVID-19, continuing close collaboration with our regional partners is key to accelerating New Zealand’s economic recovery,” Jacinda Ardern said. “There is wide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to Infrastructure NZ Symposium
    Tena Koutou, Tena Koutou and thank you for inviting me to speak to you today. This is a critical time for New Zealand as we respond to the damage wreaked by the global COVID-19 pandemic. It is vital that investment in our economic recovery is well thought through, and makes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Pike River 10 Year Anniversary Commemorative Service
    Tēnei te mihi ki a tātau katoa e huihui nei i tēnei rā Ki a koutou ngā whānau o te hunga kua riro i kōnei – he mihi aroha ki a koutou Ki te hapori whānui – tēnā koutou Ki ngā tāngata whenua – tēnā koutou Ki ngā mate, e ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago