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Only 56%?

Written By: - Date published: 7:45 am, August 23rd, 2011 - 55 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour, polls - Tags: ,

The latest salacious tidbits from last weekend’s 3 News Poll are being carefully drip fed to the hungry right-wing pack. Duncan Garner writes:

56 percent of Labour voters say Goff won’t win – survey

In our latest 3 News Reid Research poll 78 percent of voters said he cannot win. Just 16 percent said he can.

But it is not much better amongst his own believers – more than one in two Labour voters have lost the faith.

Fifty-six percent say he cannot win and just 37 percent of his own voters say he can.

I must admit that I’m surprised. I’m surprised it’s as low as 56%. Here we have just about every mainstream media outlet constantly bombarding the public with the same messages over and over. Labour can’t win. National is so popular. Goff should step down. You don’t care about boring policy details, you only care that Mr Key is so nice. Labour can’t win. Rinse, lather, repeat. All that, all channels, all the time, and only 56% of Labour supporters are buying it?

Well, here’s to you, you 44%, wherever you are. Good on ya. Labour has better policy, and Labour has more popular policy. The Nats have a dismal record on the economy, job creation, and listening to the people. When the public starts to focus on the election (which now seems likely to be after the bloody rugby) the hallowed poll gap will narrow, and anything is possible yet.

And to the 56% who don’t think we can do it, good on you too for sticking to your principles and sticking with Labour! Yeah we’re the underdogs. But win or lose Labour stands for what’s right, and that’s worth supporting.


55 comments on “Only 56%?”

  1. Gosman 1

    That’s right, blame it on the big bad media.

    What left wing supporters really should hope for is that the All Blacks win the RWC. That would give you a cast iron excuse for being defeated rather than just accepting that the public just prefers National to Labour at the moment.

    • r0b 1.1

      I’m not blaming the media at all Gos, it is what it is.  I’m just pointing out that the Labour-negative message from the media is pretty constant, which it is.

      As per many previous posts, I don’t think Labour has done everything right, and I don’t think that the public is politically engaged yet either.  We’re going to have a short, sharp election campaign.  Obviously Labour are the massive underdogs, but it ain’t over until it’s over.

      It’s always easier to do what is popular than what is right.  So this post was about congratulating Labour voters for supporting what is right.

      • Blue 1.1.1

        Rob, if there was something that the public as a whole would find appealing about Labour and newsworthy, don’t you think the media would be onto it? Good stories are their bread and butter. Blaming the media then prefacing it by saying “it is what it is” is asinine.

        • r0b
          Good stories are their bread and butter.

          “Good” as in “good news”?  If so then I completely disagree!

          Blaming the media then prefacing it by saying “it is what it is” is asinine.

          Once again, I’m not blaming them.  I’m just describing the current prevailing media orthodoxy.  Do you disagree with it?
      • Gosman 1.1.2

        What Labour negative message is the media supposedly mean to be peddling?

        That the public are not yet totally enamoured with them and their policies according to the Polls?

        Isn;t that just the political reality.

        • r0b

          Partly reality Gos, obviously Labour are less popular than National.  But on the other hand Labour’s policies are more popular than National’s.

          • Gosman

            So are you implying that the media isn’t reporting the results from the polls which show that certain Labour party policies are more popular than National party ones?

            I’m pretty sure I read, heard, and saw lots about that when Labour drip fed their release of the CGT.

    • bbfloyd 1.2

      what you should hope for goss is that operation to clear that blockage is hurried up so that you can once more talk through your mouth… the smell of rotting excrement must be hard for your family to handle..

    • Vicky32 1.3

      really should hope for is that the All Blacks win the RWC. That would give you a cast iron excuse for being defeated

      I am horrified to think that the New Zealand public is so weird and yes, stupid, as to have some strange superstitious idea that winning a thugby match somehow reflects well or badly on the government! How is that supposed to work? (I know some incredibly stupid people, but with any luck, on November 26th they’ll be at home going “Duh, what’s an election? I wanna vote for Obama..” )

    • mik e 1.4

      Gosman Their not voting for National their voting for the ad man the one man band add man Key When you look down the list the rest of national are non to be found.

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    I’m waiting for the media polling to come out giving National 94% support and John Key a 98.6% popularity rating.

    Maybe by then a few people will twig that the media polling is too often way out of line. Just like with the Mana and Botany and Auckland City Council election results.he

    Yes Labour are the underdogs right now, but Key and English are scared dogs, refusing to front up and answer the hard questions in interviews and town meetings.

  3. Craig Glen Eden 3

    the public prefers National to Labour on what? Nationals position on mining?On asset sales?
    On public transport needs in Auckland?

    National are winning the popularity stakes thats fore-sure but do you think Gosman the public are going to be happy once they realize their future has not got brighter and their kids have voted with their feet and they can see them on a holiday in Aussie? As for closing the wage gap? apparently that was aspirational now! Yup under National you can dream all you like because thats all you will get is a dream as for feeding your kids tough shit!

    • bbfloyd 3.1

      unfortunately craig.. it has been my experience that the average gossboy doesn’t get it until it is way too late.. install a labour govt to fix it up as fast as possible, then whine like a pregnant bitch when it doesn’t improve instantly…

      by then, of course garner, guyon, and the rest of the poodle pack have started the scapegoating dogwhistles..

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        yeah well first job back in govt is to reinstitute a full public broadcasting model with impartial and independent standards for journalism and news integrity.

        • Bazar

          Indeed i second that.

          The government should have a roll in the news standards, because what we get is rubbish

          We should at peek viewing time, get the real news.
          I propose the government create a show called “News peek”, filled with glorious information on how our leaders are improving things for us.

  4. Mr Robins,

    You may find the final ‘salacious tidbit’ that’s being ‘carefully drip fed’ slightly more favourable to your way of thinking tonight, and the ‘hungry right wing pack’ might not be so happy.

    Watch at six.

    Duncan Garner

  5. Ok, make sure you do it’s interesting.

  6. I just didn’t want you to think it’s always bad news.

    • r0b 6.1

      Not always no.  Anything related perception of policy or the actual facts about National’s record is very good for Labour.  Be nice to hear more of that for sure.

    • Bored 6.2

      I laughed at the “good news” story on Sunday Duncan.

      Apparently we are supposed to swallow the concept of John Keys cycleway being “delivered” when in fact all that has happened is that a road used by cars and trucks has been redesignated “cycleway”. The “news team” failed to ask the obvious questions, the presentation was “oh hurrah, how fabulous”.

      I am wondering if and how you gents will report any accidents that occur as cyclist use this section of the “cycleway”?

      It is summed up by the words of Johnny Rotten, “Did you ever get the feeling you have been cheated”?

      I am not sure if I am more cheated by the media like you Duncan, or Key on this issue.

      • Jim Nald 6.2.1

        Sounds like you’re spoilt for Tory choice there.
        No need to be too anxious about the options – nearer the elections, Toryvision NZ and Tory3News will have more good Tory stories.

    • Deadly_NZ 6.3

      So instead`of bagging Labour. Why oh Why did you not bag your mates English, and Ryall for being girls and running away from a debate with David Cunliffe. Is it because you are not allowed to or is it you all think that the sun shines out of Key arse.

  7. Craig Glen Eden 7

    Hey Duncan if you want to do a show thats interesting how about fronting Key on some of his failed promises, now that would be interesting as Im aspirational, aspirational for a media that will look past Keys spin and will examine just how backward we have gone in just 2.5 years.

  8. We will hopefully have Key on The Nation again before the election and so will Campbell Live no doubt and there’s the head to head debate, and of course a month where the heat will be on both leaders.

    We also spent last week unpicking National’s record on youth unemployment on 3 News. We did four stories following the National Party Conference.

    I also wrote a blog about it on 3news.co.nz

    Now I’ve just broken my own rules – commenting on blog sites!!!!

    Gotta go.

    • r0b 8.1

      We also spent last week unpicking National’s record on youth unemployment on 3 News. 

      Yes you did, and some great stuff on the cost of living before that if I recall correctly.  But these substantial pieces are notable because they stand out from the usual fare.

      I know I know, it’s the usual leftie whine, but wouldn’t the public be better served by more focus on facts and policies, and less on “presidential” style personality politics and infotainment?  (Yes yes,  it’s all about what sells, we the public get what we want.  Sigh.)

      Now I’ve just broken my own rules – commenting on blog sites!!!!

      I did that once.  Now I write for one.  Gotta watch that slippery slope!  But anyway – is there any real difference between blogs and MSM comments sections?  (heh!)

      Gotta go.

      Do call again.  Cheers.

    • Policy Parrot 8.2

      If Key wont go on Morning Report, he’s certainly not going to go on Campbell Live.

      There’s too much risk that Mihi Forbes will interview him.

    • And here it is, Kiwis prefer a Capital Gains Tax to asset sales.


      This is Labour’s new mantra. From now on they say they will introduce a CGT so everyone pays their fair share AND there is no way they will sell assets.

      What fat lady?

      • Puddleglum 8.3.1

        I think the idea that selling 49% of shares keeps assets under NZ control and therefore does not amount to an asset sale also needs the acid treatment. 

        ‘NZ control’ has to include the government being able and willing to make decisions in the ‘national interest’ that the other shareholders will not like.

        Force National EITHER to state publicly that the government will reserve the right to do just this (which they won’t because it would undermine the share sell-off and/or price) OR that selling those shares means that those assets will no longer be under New Zealand control.

        They can’t have their cake and eat it too.

        • Jum


          But if the TPPA goes through (under NActMU it will) it automatically allows the other shareholders to sue our country if the government of the day attempts to make decisions based on New Zealand’s/New Zealanders’ best interests.

          Any shares sold in any of our assets means a loss of New Zealand control.

          • Colonial Viper

            Any shares sold in any of our assets means a loss of New Zealand control.

            You can still just nationalise the shares.

            And tell the bastards “see you in court if you never want to do business with NZ again”.

    • Deadly_NZ 8.4

      Head to head My ASS. Key will wriggle out of it as he knows he has no ideas or plans to fix the economy but another smile and wave will keep the MSM in line.

  9. Anne 9

    Good on you for having the courage to front up here Garner. Can’t imagine your off-sider Espinor doing the same. You say you’ve unpicked National’s record on youth unemployment. How about unpicking some of the other records. As far as I can see they’ve done bugger-all. Key talks (have you noticed his deteriorating diction lately?), smiles, waves, poses with anything that moves – especially if it’s rich and/or famous – but actually do something constructive for NZ and ordinary people?

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Duncan’s posted a few times here in the past. I don’t think Espiner ever has, or at least he never did so publicly.

      I guess we can assume that Duncan reads this site at least sporadically.

      • Akldnut 9.1.1

        Yes, good to see you commenting & well done over the last week or so Duncan but I believe a bit more agresive interveiwing toward the incumbents to at least keep them open and hold them to the transparency mime they’ve been promising all along needs to be done.

        Keep them honest – cause the last thing they’ve been is open with their intentions.

        • Colonial Viper

          believe a bit more agresive interveiwing toward the incumbents to at least keep them open and hold them to the transparency

          Perhaps aggressive is not the right word, but definitely pin incumbent MPs down on important points of policy, fact and judgement.

    • Deadly_NZ 9.2

      What about the ‘fiscally neutral Tax Switch’ Pick that sucker apart. Or why does the price of petrol always go up but rarely comes back down?

  10. Adrian 10

    Good on you Duncan for fronting to a generally sceptical site. Your statement ” hopefully” you can get Key to front up himself is disturbing, this is the bloody Prime Minister for God’s sake who is trying to convince the populace to take him on for another 3 years and he is trying to be invisible and giving the finger to a transparent and acountable democracy. On the other hand he may well be taking David Lange’s sage advice that to go on holiday for most of the campaign is sometimes the best tactic, particulary if Key is having trouble controlling his temper and drinking.

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      Luckily this sort of thing is pretty easy to deal with on TV. If you ask someone to front for an interview, and they keep refusing, eventually you just put an empty chair up with a name tag on it and embarrass them.

    • Anne 10.2

      he may well be taking David Lange’s sage advice that to go on holiday for most of the campaign is sometimes the best tactic,

      Jeepers I miss that man. 😀

  11. Well as an active LP member on the Left of the party I of course worry at the polls and the anti Labour message we are bombarded with non stop.
    Of course I worry ,however I live in blue,blue Waikato so I should be used to it. The strange thing is that I speak to a lot of people and all I hear is how bad this government is and that they “Do not like Key’ So whome to believe . Perhaps the polls are manipulated ? So by whom. Would it be Crosby/Textor. ?

  12. HC 12


    Tell a lie a thousand times, and it becomes reality!

  13. Nick C 13

    “Here we have just about every mainstream media outlet constantly bombarding the public with the same messages over and over. Labour can’t win. National is so popular. Goff should step down. You don’t care about boring policy details, you only care that Mr Key is so nice.”

    Wasn’t It Trevor, not the media, who came up with the last bit?

  14. Not particularly ‘salacious’, but is this it?

    • Puddleglum 14.1

      MS had the scoop first. (I must be a very slow typist.)

    • r0b 14.2

      Must be, from the same Reid poll. Encouraging of course, as long as voters prefer Labour policy to Nat then the election could still go Labour’s way. I’ll do a piece on it for tomorrow…

  15. Drakula 15

    @Pink postman The polls are definately manipulated I remember I was staying at a place in Hamilton Av. in Fendalton in Christchurch before an election. Very blue rinse and they were constantly being bombarded with phone pollsters nearly every day.

    Over on the other side of town Woolston/Opawa blue coller semi industrial area, my friends there were hardly ever polled.

    So there you are it’s complete bullshit the system is rigged anyway.

    Vote by all means but I have more faith in protests, strikes and revolution that’s the only we are going to claw back our rights.

    • Deadly_NZ 15.1

      Maybe they figure if they skew the polls so far all the time, then maybe the ‘ordinary swing/occasional v oter will look at the numbers and decides not to vote..

  16. Jum 16

    ‘mik e 6.1.1
    25 August 2011 at 10:37 pm

    Now May Chen is getting in on the ACt saying she’s neutral.Yeah Right her firm is one of the biggest benefactors v in govt asset sales’

    Yes, she’s channelling Jane Clifton and you know how tricky she is – it always ends up with the poor losing, but Jane and Mai are so empathetic…

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