Open mike 01/02/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, February 1st, 2025 - 53 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

53 comments on “Open mike 01/02/2025 ”

  1. Jenny 1
    1 February 2025 at 7:45 am

    Bisan From Gaza, whose call sign is "I am still alive" returns to Rafah, her home town.

    Rafah City is the so called 'Red Line" that Biden warned Israel not to attack, or else. Netanyahu ignored Biden's warning, but promised the Biden administration and the world that Israel's assault on Rafah would be limited.

    Bisan shows us what Netanyahu's 'limited' attack on Rafah looks like.

    P.S. Bear in mind that Israel's attack on the Capital, Gaza City, was unlimited.

    Is this not evidence of genocide?

    Reply
    • Ad 1.1
      1 February 2025 at 8:11 am

      Biggest funder of aid for Palestinians is the US, through USAID and UNRWA. Has been for decades.

      So when Trump says "just clear the whole of Gaza" and relocate all 1.4 mil of them to other countries, it's serious.

      Chances of this actually happening are still uncertain, but once the concept turns into a conference and into a plan, there's a new shape to the Middle East.

      Reply
      • Muttonbird 1.1.1
        1 February 2025 at 8:38 am

        9/11 would look like child's play if Trump "clears Gaza".

        Reply
        • Ad 1.1.1.1
          1 February 2025 at 9:44 am

          Over a dozen large scale refugee camps in Syria, Jordan, and elsewhere already.

          The moral question is which countries will take suffering Palestinians from wrecked Gaza in, and by the thousand?

          EU? UK? NZ? AU? US? Anyone?

          Reply
          • Jenny 1.1.1.1.1
            1 February 2025 at 1:28 pm

            The Arab Spring is not dead.

            The Arab Spring is not dead

            The spirit of the uprising lives on in the hearts and minds of millions of Arabs.

            Haythem Guesmi is a Tunisian academic and writer.

            …..The return to authoritarianism in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, was especially seized upon by many observers of the region as confirmation of the demise of Arab aspirations for democracy – everywhere, for good.

            It is true that not too long after the revolutions, dictatorships made a brutal and bloody return in both Tunisia and Egypt….

            …..And yet, the spirit of the 2011 Arab Spring protests is still very much alive.

            In Tunisia, for example, people are bravely resisting Saied’s oppression through boycotts, strikes and sit-ins…..

            …And Tunisia is only one example. From Egypt to Syria and Lebanon, the flame of revolution is not out, and hopes for a better, more democratic and egalitarian future are still very much alive.

            ….far from being temporary or accidental, the West’s support for Arab dictators is a fundamental pillar of their longstanding regional foreign policy…

            https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/31/the-arab-spring-is-not-dead

            There is a very real possibility that this fundamental pillar supporting Western domination of the Middle East could be kicked out,

            If Jordan and Egypt dare go along with Trump's plan to relocate the people of Gaza, the Hashemite Royal Family of Jordan and military dictator Al Sisi of Egypt will be finished to quickly follow the Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad into the dustbin of history.

            From CNN:

            Trump wants to ‘clean out’ Gaza. Here’s what this could mean for the Middle East

            By Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN

            ……Experts warn that beyond the moral and legal concerns, an influx of refugees into neighboring Arab countries could destabilize them and pose an existential threat. Agreeing to Trump’s proposal, they say, would provoke widespread public anger – an untenable risk for those governments.

            “If they were to… accept being participants in and hosting Palestinians in an ethnic cleansing, that would undoubtedly be infuriating and genuinely destabilizing for both countries,” Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington, DC, told CNN.

            https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/middleeast/trump-clean-out-gaza-middle-east-intl/index.html

            With the fall of neighbouring US backed ramparts to Israel, 140 years of Western domination of the Middle East will finally be over.

            Reply
            • Ad 1.1.1.1.1.1
              1 February 2025 at 5:25 pm

              Tunisia has been an ally of the US since 1797. The writer you copy is a malcontent looking for a form of democracy that exists in zero Arab speaking countries.

              The idea of "US domination of the Middle East" is just another pinkie left fantasy. The US has been consistently defeated in almost all wars it tried after Korea and quite ineffective at peace since Camp David four decades ago.

              Reply
          • Jenny 1.1.1.1.2
            1 February 2025 at 2:44 pm

            Ad @1.1.1.1

            "The moral question is which countries will take suffering Palestinians from wrecked Gaza in, and by the thousand?

            EU? UK? NZ? AU? US? Anyone?"

            History repeats:

            1939…

            ….Nine Hundred and thirty German Jewish refugees set sail for Cuba in a luxury liner, the St. Louis (e.g. on May 13th), they all held official Cuban landing certificates and 734 of them possessed U.S. immigration quota numbers that would have allowed them to enter America three months to three years after disembarking in Cuba on arrival at Havana, almost all the passengers were denied entry on the grounds that their landing papers had subsequently been rescinded. After unsuccessfully negotiating with the authorities in Havana, THE SHIP’S CAPTAIN TURNED TOWARD MIAMI IN THE HOPE THAT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WOULD RELENT AND TAKE IN THE JEWISH IMMIGRANTS AHEAD OF THEIR SCHEDULED TIME. INSTEAD WASHINGTON ISSUED STRICT INSTRUCTIONS TO PREVENT ANY OF THE PASSENGERS FROM SETTING FOOT IN THE UNITED STATES. Having no other recourse, the St. Louis returned to Europe, where except for 287 Jews who were given asylum in England, the rest were sent back to germany the nazi’s.

            https://cojs.org/franklin-d-roosevelt-1933-1945-refugee-ships-st-louis-e-g-movie-ship-fools/

            Many of the remaining 643 passengers on board the St. Louis were interned in concentration camps in Europe some managed to escape and go into hiding some others managed to survive years as slave labourers, more than a third of the passengers on board the St. Louis didn't survive the camps, murdered by the Nazis. and by the world's indifference.

            Not much different to today.

            Another reason why Palestinians will not leave Gaza, if you are going to be abused and murdered wherever you go, you might as well be abused and murdered at home.

            Reply
            • Ad 1.1.1.1.2.1
              1 February 2025 at 5:27 pm

              Not sure about the shouty caps, but you'll probably be aware of what happened to every single Jewish settlement in an Arab speaking country since 1949.

              Reply
              • Jenny …
                1 February 2025 at 7:43 pm

                The 'Shouty caps' as you call them were there by courtesy of the original copy.

                As for what happened to the Jewish people in the Arab countries, or Nazi Germany for that matter, nothing justifies genocide, not even genocide.

                Reply
              • SPC …
                1 February 2025 at 8:23 pm

                No Jewish settlement, or Jews in Arab towns in the West Bank and Gaza d survived the arrival of Arab armies in 1948.

                Most of the Jews living in the wider ME (around 1 million) were in Israel by 1949. And not because they had much choice. Their properties confiscated. This because Arab states responded to the failure to end the Jewish state when it formed in 1948 by regarding the new state as a catchment for all Jews in the ME.

                There were 1.2M Palestinians in the mandate area (400,000 in the area awarded for a Jewish state) and only 160,000 Arabs in the state of Israel in 1949 (by this time Israel controlled 75% of Palestine). 240,000 from the area awarded for a Jewish state in 1947 being the known number of those refugees. 400,000 others from the territory won by Israel in the war. So over 600,000 Palestinian refugees.

                This meant 160,000 in Israel and 400,000 Arabs were in Gaza and the West Bank were not refugees – just under half.

                Reply
      • Jenny 1.1.2
        1 February 2025 at 2:11 pm

        Ad @1.1

        "…..once the concept turns into a conference and into a plan, there's a new shape to the Middle East."

        It will not be a shape conducive to US power in the region.

        Reply
        • Ad 1.1.2.1
          1 February 2025 at 5:29 pm

          You've seen every enemy of Israel defeated in the last 6 months and not a single Arab state lifted a finger.

          So don't try writing history yet.

          Reply
          • Jenny 1.1.2.1.1
            1 February 2025 at 5:51 pm

            Just as the natural world has physical limits the climate polluters cannot cross without devastating consequences.

            The human world has political limits the imperialists cannot cross without devastating consequences.

            Donald Trump is just about to discover those limits.

            Reply
  2. Ad 2
    1 February 2025 at 7:53 am

    Mayor Radich of Dunedin needs a gymnastics gold medal for the speed of back-flip from protesting the scaled-back Dunedin Hospital to fulsome Ministerial support and telling the people of Otago to "give themselves a pat on the back" for getting what they wanted.

    Same guy that opposed then opened George Street, opposed then supported Port Chalmers-Dunedin cycleway.

    Vote Radich out in 2025.

    Reply
  3. Dennis Frank 3
    1 February 2025 at 7:58 am

    Josh Self has this excellent review the first half-year of Labour's new UK government: https://www.politics.co.uk/year-in-review/2024/12/24/year-in-review-part-two-the-unsettled-dawn-of-keir-starmer/

    He pledged to restore trust with “actions not words” — by leading a “government of service”.
    “We ran as a changed Labour party”, Starmer declared shortly after Sunak conceded defeat. “And we will govern as a changed Labour party.”

    The wider Blair-Starmer parallels, on a cursory assessment, were manifest. Labour’s new majority of 174 was the largest since Blair (179). Overnight, Labour candidates had repeatedly shattered the previous Conservative-to-Labour swing record of 18.8 per cent — set by New Labour in Brent North in 1997. 46 constituencies surpassed this level in the early hours of 5 July; and the new record was set, elegantly, in Liz Truss’s former fiefdom of South West Norfolk (25.9 per cent). After fourteen years of Conservative-led government, the result appeared to herald a new political epoch. But the headline figures belied a more complex picture. Although Labour won 63 per cent of commons seats (411 MPs), it did so with just 33.7 per cent of the vote — the lowest winning share of any party since 1832. After all, Labour’s overall vote share was only around two points higher than in 2019. And turnout stood at 59.8 per cent — down from 67.3 per cent.

    It meant Starmer’s Labour received half a million fewer votes than the party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. The prominent pro-Starmer think tank, Labour Together, published a report after the election outlining what the party must do to win in 2029. The report reads: “In the past, winning 411 seats was the kind of victory from which a government might confidently expect 10 years in power. “This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities.”

    Self's political analysis is insightful even if his style is sufficiently florid to be likely to induce turbulent feelings in readers who have done white-water rafting. If you want to know the saga of Starmers initial learning curve, prepare to be bounced around!

    Reply
  4. tWig 4
    1 February 2025 at 9:30 am

    Marina Hyde rips into AI bros, Sam Altman of ChatGPT especially, in her very witty way.

    'For us little people, the choice seems to be between being data-jacked and screwed over by the undemocratic Chinese, or being data-jacked and screwed over by the post-democratic tech bros.'

    Reply
    • tc 4.1
      1 February 2025 at 9:46 am

      IMO Beijing is having a laugh here as none of the deepseek claims are proven yet.

      But look what they did to the share values and observe the tiff between musk and altman as tech bros aren't on the same page.

      Reply
      • tWig 4.1.1
        1 February 2025 at 2:29 pm

        See my comment #10 at std 29-01.

        Downloading and using DeepSeek as a stand-alone on closed system data is already being done. The value is not in the large language model part, but in the open-source machine-learning software. No data-scraping involved.

        Reply
  5. bwaghorn 5
    1 February 2025 at 9:45 am

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360566139/details-proposal-build-1000-home-green-community-near-napier-made-public

    These people should have mmmm moment. Unfortunately we have government of morons that a opening the door to long slow car wreck instead of guiding it's people to safer ground.

    Reply
  6. Muttonbird 6
    1 February 2025 at 10:59 am

    From the side bar, an excellent piece from Mountain Tui updating on the Curia Market Research suspension. I was interested in their conclusions upholding the complaint about the gender affirming treatment poll commissioned (and written) by Family First:

    In August 2024, RANZ provided an update on the Curia resignation and complaint. And the conclusion is as follows:

    • The question…does NOT meet acceptable research principles, methods and techniques and, because the results were published, could bring discredit to the profession.
    • The independent committee rejected three of the arguments put forward in Mr Farrar’s response to the independent subcommittee.
    • Mr. Farrar also states that although he advises clients on the relative merits of questions, ultimately he will accept the question if the client insists. This is a particular risk where the client is lobbying for a particular outcome.

    The panel notes Curia Market Research could choose to return to RANZ, if it so decided, subject to conditions such as “sufficient quality assurance in respect of their questionnaire design to ensure their questions meet best practice.”

    The panel did not recommend suspension as that was reserved for cases such as “fraud, making up data, push polling* etc”

    A brutal assessment by RANZ of Farrar's practices and integrity, going so far as to say he could bring the entire industry into disrepute.

    * I would have thought the cases highlighted in MT's article where RANZ has upheld complaints against Farrar could easily fall under the definition of push polling particularly as industry bodies appear to be responding to increasingly politically motivated but subtle changes in practice by participants.

    Future usage of the term will determine whether the strict or broad definition becomes the most favored, but in all such polls, the pollster asks leading questions or suggestive questions that "push" the interviewee toward adopting an unfavourable response toward the political candidate or issue in question.

    Push polls' main advantage is that they are an effective way to malign an opponent ("pushing" voters toward a predetermined point of view) while avoiding direct responsibility for the distorted or false information suggested (but not directly alleged) in the push poll. They are risky for the same reason: if credible evidence emerges that the polls were directly ordered by a campaign or candidate, it could do serious damage to that campaign.

    Keep up the good work, MT, it's only with this sort of pressure the media will begin to stop and ask questions about Farrar's corrupt practices, which then feeds through to the public.

    Reply
  7. Dennis Frank 7
    1 February 2025 at 11:01 am

    Identity transformation can be physically painful too: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/31/entertainment/pete-davidson-burning-tattoos-off/index.html

    “They gotta burn off a layer of your skin, and then it has to heal for like six to eight weeks and you can’t get in the sunlight,” he said. “Then you got to do it like 12 more times.” The former “SNL” cast member said he believes he had about 200 tattoos in total and only plans on keeping a precious few.

    So he's keeping editorial control of his public image, and using make it up as you go along as his operational strategy. It's an evolutionary strategy for reconfiguring yourself within your social niche. The Picts ruled Scotland for a millennium prior to the Scots, and they wore body tattoos according to Julius Caesar in the history he wrote, fought naked and were beaten by the Roman using short swords according to Before Scotland: A Prehistory. The long Pictish sword worked best for free-range warriors.

    Roman armour may have had a causal influence too, one suspects. When I was a kid only sailors had tattoos, so we've been watching antique tribal signalling re-emerge within younger generations. If only someone would tell them that ancient indigenous tribes were, & most surviving are, natural equity-based economies.

    Reply
  8. Ad 8
    1 February 2025 at 11:26 am

    I have a sneaking feeling Trump is leading up to killing off the full US$60b of USAID and foreign aid from Biden.

    That would be a full humanitarian crisis.

    Reply
    • tWig 8.1
      1 February 2025 at 2:35 pm

      Fk soft diplomacy. There'll be plenty of back-turning on the US after this. Not to mention Canada and Mexico by-passing US markets after tariffs are imposed this weekend. Trump shakes the world economy, but the outcome may not be what he thinks.

      Reply
      • Ad 8.1.1
        1 February 2025 at 5:33 pm

        All those countries aren't going to replace $60b.

        And the poor countries will certainly miss it.

        Reply
        • tWig 8.1.1.1
          1 February 2025 at 5:52 pm

          Option 1. Nationalise the local holdings of US/first world companies.

          Option 2. Turn to China or Bill Gates for a loan.

          Option 3. Default on debts to the first world/World Bank.

          Option 4. Strengthen ties with neighbouring countries to form a strong political and financial bloc.

          Option 5. Halt arms buying.

          Remember what Iceland did to rebuild when its economy collapsed in 2008, as an example.

          As an aside, a lot of aid is actually the US govt buying US goods and shipping them. The local US economy may inadvertantly take a hit…own goal.

          Reply
    • Bearded Git 8.2
      2 February 2025 at 3:15 am

      I worked with USAID people in Indonesia. Much of that 60 billion is paid to Americans working for USAID as generous salaries and per diem. Effectively much of the 60 billion "aid" stays in America in other words

      There will be a very strong lobby by these people to keep their jobs and projects going.

      Reply
  9. tWig 9
    1 February 2025 at 3:02 pm

    What removing 'gender ideology' really means: NPR reports that US government sites have been censored, with the Office of Personnel Management ordering government agencies to "Take down all outward facing media (websites, social media accounts, etc.) that inculcate or promote gender ideology" ', along with a corresponding memo on removal of inclusion and diversity initiatives.

    'basic information had disappeared from government websites. The CDC's HIV surveillance data disappeared… the CDC's Youth Risk Survey data is no longer accessible…

    The OPM says it did this ' " as part of the efforts to defend women and uphold the truth of biological sex against the radical claims of gender activists" '

    Government agencies must also review all their funding and remove support for anything to do with "gender ideology" or diversity and inclusiveness.

    And I bet many thought it was just about trans women. First they came…for anyone different, and those aupporting them.

    Reply
    • tWig 9.1
      1 February 2025 at 3:27 pm

      Plus any government material to do with climate change.

      'United States Forest Service website for key resources, research and adaptation tools – including those that provide vital context and vulnerability assessments for wildfires – had gone dark'

      Reply
    • weka 9.2
      1 February 2025 at 11:03 pm

      And I bet many thought it was just about trans women. First they came…for anyone different, and those supporting them.

      Gender Critical Feminists knew what would happen and have been pushing back against it for a long time. This is why the split on the left has been so bad, GCFs were outnumbered by the conservatives who co-opted the issues and made them their own, and no support from the liberal left.

      Many women who were previously liberal won't care that much. The left has underestimated just how pissed off so many women are. If you talk with those women, you will find that many might regret some of the other loses but believe that losing women's sex based rights is far worse. It would have been so much better if there had been middle ground. It's not the GC side that created No Debate. And now here we are.

      Reply
      • tWig 9.2.1
        2 February 2025 at 4:09 pm

        Missing the point there, weka. Womens' rights are already bundled in there with the 'protection of women' in the anti-diversity push. The transphobia was just window-dressing. Trumo has come for all diversity initiatives at once.

        The Federal web page for the Vera Rubin Observatory has already been rewritten to remove mention of her strong advocacy for women in science.

        Reply
        • tWig 9.2.1.1
          3 February 2025 at 12:29 pm

          See Shaun, in 2022. They deconstruct of the RW links of the UK anti-trans people associated with Rowling.

          Reply
          • tWig 9.2.1.1.1
            4 February 2025 at 11:50 am

            And this piece shows the anti-trans and right-wing bias of Hilary Cass who,

            'consulted with Republican Governor Ron DeSantis' expert on trans healthcare, Patrick Hunter of the Catholic Medical Association. Hunter sought to find ways to limit trans rights and medical care in the state of Florida…Hunter, meanwhile, is part of a network of anti-trans people who seek to roll back gains for LGBT citizens'

            'The York Review is cited over 75 times in the Cass report. Its methodology was designed by Tilly Langton, who has promoted conversion therapy resists any form of transitioning [for adults] and holds trans identities in suspicion.';

            And this EU document shows just how much anti-gender funding in the EU pushes to roll back womens' reproductive rights and LGBT initiatives.

            Reply
  10. Jenny 10
    1 February 2025 at 3:56 pm

    '

    Donald Trump is about to discover the limits of imperialism.

    TV7 Israel News

    @4:08 minutes

    Amid an outright rejection by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah of President Trump’s proposal to temporarily relocate approximately 1.5 million Gazans to Jordan and Egypt…

    ….asked whether there was anything he [Trump] could do to realize his vision.

    @4:35 minutes

    Reporter: …..both said that they won’t take-in displaced people from Gaza; like you suggested.

    Is there anything you can do to make them do that? I mean, tariffs against those countries, for example?

    Trump: They will do it. They will do it.

    Reporter: What makes you say that?

    Trump: They’re going to do it, OK?

    We do a lot for them, and they’re going to do it.

    https://www.tv7israelnews.com/vod/series/563/?episode-id=1wFCjbR1ac8

    The King of Jordan and the dictator of Egypt could take the refugees and face revolution, or they could let Trump impose tariffs and ruin their economy, like the king or the dictator would care, as long as they can blame Trump for the people's suffering they should be OK.

    I suppose Trump could use tens of $billions of US dollars to bribe Al Sisi and King Abdullah to accept the Palestinians from Gaza,..
    But these potentates, generals and Royal family members and the King are just as likely to divvy up the money between them, up-sticks to Argentina or Monaco, taking the money with them, than use the money to oppress their own people on America's behalf.

    Reply
  11. Dennis Frank 11
    1 February 2025 at 4:31 pm

    Venezuela seems a prime candidate for Trump target: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/1/27/a-revolving-door-for-political-prisoners-venezuelan-families-cry-foul

    As of January 20, there were 1,601 political prisoners held by the state, according to the Venezuelan human rights group Foro Penal. It logged 83 new arrests in the first 12 days of January alone.

    In August, activist and engineer Jesus Armas attended a vigil for Venezuela’s political prisoners… The then-37-year-old listened to impassioned speeches, gazed at posters emblazoned with the faces of those behind bars, and silently lit a candle in their honour. Four months later, on December 10, Armas was carted off to prison himself. Witnesses saw hooded men seize him from a cafe in the capital Caracas and bundle him into a silver vehicle with no licence plates. Only in mid-December did his family discover he was in government custody.

    Armas founded a nonprofit, Ciudadania Sin Limites, in 2012 dedicated to improving access to essential public services in underserved communities.

    But his family believes it was his role in the 2024 presidential campaign that led to his arrest — and subsequent torture.

    Maduro's fake election results have worked so far but if T moves into state detoxification operations he won't last much longer.

    Reply
    • tWig 11.1
      1 February 2025 at 5:22 pm

      Only reason for going into Venezuela, where conditions haven't been helped by US trade embargos, would be for its nationalised control of 25% of the world's untapped oil resources. Iraq 2.0. Yes, Trump, go for it. We believe it would be another massive strike by the US for freedom and democracy, because you say so.

      I do not support the mistreatment of the prisoners, and aljazeera is no trump-pet. But so many countries around the world do this (saudis, anyone?) without threat of US action.

      Reply
      • Dennis Frank 11.1.1
        1 February 2025 at 7:11 pm

        Whereas the USA warped itself from foreign trade dependent to oil-independent via the fracking tech revolution, it would get an advantage from establishing democracy instead of Maduro. Granted that US establishments of democracy in foreign countries have been persistently more sham than real! Nonetheless there's a remote possibility the yanks could get it right for a change.

        Why would I be that optimistic? T is now ruled by legacy-planning. His ego requires him to go down in history as a great president. He will do whatever he thinks is necessary to achieve that outcome. Doesn't matter how unrealistic it seems to us, the guy is serious about his intent. And yes, selective morality is always the norm in geopolitics (due to the UN Security Council veto).

        Reply
        • tWig 11.1.1.1
          1 February 2025 at 10:35 pm

          Trump has already generated not just a can of worms, but tens of worm-cans, both internally and internationally. There won't be enough hours in his day, or his term to 'create a legacy' in the traditional sense. He's embraced the 'Just break it!' mantra of the tech bros.

          I thought Winston Peters might use the 2017 term to ‘create a legacy’. It was a silly idea to apply to a mid-tier narcisist like Winnie. So expecting similar of Trump is even sillier.

          Reply
          • Dennis Frank 11.1.1.1.1
            2 February 2025 at 6:42 am

            Could be. They are both also nationalist, which is conditioned by the global security niche (geopolitics). Winston is dependent on that provided by the US & T is the provider or not. So T has the initiative to create the future.

            The traditional notion of manifest destiny comes to mind in contemporary context: heroic endeavour, a lure T is unlikely to resist. I agree his loose cannoning is sufficiently enterprising thus far to keep him fairly busy coping with consequences and he seems shrewd enough to learn how to adapt to control pressures but he also has a natural tendency to be self-defeating.

            He intends to drive the control system forward but any system is inherently indeterminant so chances are fate will present random stuff that changes his trajectory & tests his adaptiveness in the Darwinian sense.

            Reply
        • Populuxe 11.1.1.2
          4 February 2025 at 12:44 pm

          US refineries need heavy "sour" crude, especially to make diesel. US oil comes from shale and is light "sweet" oil. If they're cut off from Canadian tar sands and are in a similar situation with Mexico, they're probably going to have to look to Venezuela, which could get spicy as Iranian companies rebuilt and run Venezuela's oil and gas infrastructure.

          Reply
  12. SPC 12
    1 February 2025 at 8:31 pm

    The UN should hold an emergency General Assembly meeting as to a discussion of the future of the WTO.

    The USA needs to be removed from the WTO (1994 out of GATT) and for it to be reformed and possibly renamed ITO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Trade_Organization

    Reply
    • Belladonna 12.1
      4 February 2025 at 11:59 am

      And the other countries are going to double or triple their contributions – to make up for the loss in funding?

      https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/secre_e/budget_e/budget2024_member_contribution_e.pdf

      Don't see it happening myself…..

      Shooting the goose whose golden eggs are a major contributor to the bottom line, strikes me as seriously short-sighted.

      Reply
      • SPC 12.1.1
        4 February 2025 at 12:07 pm

        It only contributes $23M – 10% OF THE TOTAL.

        Reply
        • Belladonna 12.1.1.1
          4 February 2025 at 12:49 pm

          So, are the other countries prepared to increase their contributions to make up the difference? It seems…. unlikely…..

          Especially with the rise in right-wing (and potentially isolationist) regimes in many of the larger contributers. Germany for example. And, potentially Canada, after the coming election.

          The country which may well increase contributions is China – and it's been very clear that their contributions also come with strings attached.

          Would that make you happier? Instead of a US dominated world trade, we had a China dominated one?

          Reply
  13. SPC 13
    2 February 2025 at 2:31 am

    Note the Pentecostal hate for New Zealand, unless it is lockstep with their religion.

    https://x.com/BrianTamakiNZ/status/1885598674337882616

    Reply

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