I'm inclined to agree. Shortages are simply an intractable backdrop against which interest, and monetary policy generally, serve to exacerbate the problems that shortages cause.
owning and renting are two different things. And renting to use for a while should never cost more then owning does, and currently renters pay the mortgage, the interest, and what ever else the owner wants out of the property.
btw, my mortgage that i pay currently is 200$ per week.
you can't even rent a dog kennel for that amount anywhere in NZ.
I reckon, my mortgage is $210 a week, if I rented the same house it would be double, and with no return. Free insulation, cheap rates, I could also halve that if I got a flatmate (which I may do once my kids leave). I don't take this for granted, I realise I'm one of the lucky few.
Have to strongly disagree with you there RL, we are in our first own house (nearly freehold) after renting for 30+years the last 15 of those with three children, owning your own home has for us probably been pretty similar, maybe a bit more expensive but not a lot, and especially when you take into account all the benefits…the main one is not having to deal with Ma&Pa landlords they are generally like spawns from hell, they have made renting a fucking nightmare, it is awful, and no country that has the resources NZ has should let it’s citizens endure that type of life…welcome to free market liberalism I guess, markets operating just as they should…Thanks David Lange.
Gone are the old days when you would rent a house and live in it for years and hardly be bothered as long as you paid your rent and maintained the property…our last ten years of renting were a disaster (with one exception) as far as landlords went…even if owning a home was/is more expensive, how can you put a price on the endless stress and worry and more importantly the hundred of subtle ways it damages and undermines children having little to no long term home security.
Owning a home provides security that no amount of rental law cannot.
The trouble is that house prices do not reflect the cost of owning a home. They reflect the cost of the expected medium-term capital gains (post bright-line). It wasn't a problem when they reflected the expected gains upon retirement and downsizing, but now who honestly expects to be in that house for thirty years? Or do they expect to flip it in ten years or so?
Agree with the security bit. I've seen the pro's and cons of home ownership debated at length in New Zealand literature. They're pretty even.
I'd like to see some proper policy work done on the effects of Andrew Little's current extension of the Bright Line test, and the likeley extension to 10 coming up. Doesn't seem to have made much difference to house prices at all – so if it's not working as intended it should be removed.
Perhaps that is a point of the Easton paper – no one issue will solve the housing crisis. After all the current presumption of intent is flawed, but reversing it would mean that gains up to the time legislation takes effect are likely to remain tax free, so most people would not pay much tax for many years; but owners of rental properties may hold for longer to defer the payment. Requiring a bigger amount of real (not borrowed) equity may be possible , but that would be easier if we increased wages so that the government does not need social welfare or Working for Families to enable new home buyers to afford to live with a family.
I have a good landlord. Doesn't put the rent up every week etc. . But a batten holder wore out 8 months ago – and it only got fixed last month – no bedroom light all winter. Rentiers are oppressors, even the the good ones.
And of course the inability of contemporary NZers to afford their own homes is the final disproof of neoliberalism. It was supposed to make us more prosperous if you remember – on the contrary, it has impoverished us. Voters, looking at neoliberals think: "Were you really that stupid that you swallowed the hype in spite of our warnings? Or were you just corrupt?"
Because their speculative growth is entrenching even more deeply NZ's trans-generational class system.
Even if a full-time worker can rustle up a 10-20% deposit, I strongly suspect most NZers probably wouldn't earn enough to service the mortgage on a median-priced house.
For me, it was break-even with no margin for error five years ago. Now? It's a joke. And I have a good job, no dependants, and a retirement fund, but houses are more than twice the price. Almost literally – I looked up that house recently. It's gone from $230k to $450k. Has any actual worker's salary doubled in five years?
I'm kinda waiting for evidence of the K-shaped economy to hit.
And it's indisputable that salaries haven't kept up with house prices.
But if Easton had tracked house prices, salaries, and national home ownership, he would have seen no collapse in average ownership at all. Even as prices skyrocketed.
In fact we're still better than nearly all other developed countries for home ownership.
Easton calls it speculation. 65% of us call it risk management.
Easton’s analysis is sound and he is not alone with the conclusions….it has been well canvassed and the only major dispute is around to what degree other factors impact.
stating 65% mean sweet FA unless you also state from where it came and what the trend is…as you well know.
and I too have checked…"and falling"
"Home Ownership Rate in New Zealand is expected to reach 64.29 percent by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations."
And as outlined below there is more to it than just economics – it's the relentlessly increasing age of first marriage that also means that 20-29 age group just aren't interested in buying homes.
Another factor is the rise in divorce rates – usually one partner will finish up renting for a period afterward.
This doesn't discount the obvious affordability issue in play – but it does suggest there are often more factors involved than the headlines make out.
Of course, unmarried people dont buy houses….how could i miss that.
And the 20 -29 year olds arnt interested in buying homes….because they increasingly cant afford them….the same applies to those in their 30s…and the ones that eventually can take considerably longer to raise the increasing deposits.
Those decreased ownership rates in the cohorts coming through are going to have a major impact on the total ownership rates as the proportionately higher ownership rate cohort approaching 70 move into care/die
30 per cent of homes are owned by people who only own one home.
Another 13 per cent is owned by people who have two homes. Six per cent is owned by people who have three homes. Ten per cent is owned by people who have between four and six homes.
And another 10 per cent is owned by those who have between seven and 20 homes.
I would argue one can own multiple houses but only one is ever your home but that's an aside.
To do a real comparison a similar breakdown as above is needed for the historical data.
And that's households (where homeowners are a member of the household). Only half of individuals own the home they live in, directly or indirectly (same link, p34).
Additionally, although $value of lending to first home buyers peaked last year at 20%, the proportion of actual borrowers at the time was 12%.
The longer this situation goes on, the more nailed in the inequity will be.
If by "generation" you mean the peak in the early 1990s, I'd agree.
If by "generation" you mean back to the 1960s when everything about New Zealand was supposed to be our egalitarian apogee, no not really it's the same.
Yup – the demographics don't lie. Before Rogergnomics the median age at marriage was around 23. After it was 33. Poverty. The social science folk can give the lie to every pretense of good governance.
That would be of course because the data aren't set up to capture it.
Measure GDP alone and you could imagine Rogergnomics as something other than a brutal failure. But you would be letting data trickle through your fingers – politically convenient no doubt.
The first world nations have been lying to themselves for a good while now – with falling "labour force participation" instead of unemployment and so on. The lies are getting pretty thick. If everything were apples home ownership wouldn't have had to fall, nor would child (the only politically acceptable poverty) be so high.
All those suicides blamed on mental health too – same trick the Soviets resorted to. Our governors have no standards at all.
Hardly – I'm not trying to extend my assertion around the world – it was you that had to reach beyond NZ to grasp at the straw that because other countries experience lesser forms of the same graphic failure, the brutal sham that was Rogergnomics was somehow excusable.
We all understand the appeal to the vanity of policy makers of a ‘great leap forward’, and I use Mao’s term deliberately, because Rogergnomics was every bit as hubris-laden, destructive, misguided, and undemocratic.
Liberals when their desire for ‘freedom’ becomes a repudiation of society and manifests as libertarianism and neo-liberal economic theories.
So nowhere have I attempted to excuse Rogernomics – that’s a just a figment of your imagination. But to attribute everything bad that ever happened in this country to this singular cause is another kind of fail.
It isn't the price of the house that is relevant to the person buying it. It is the cost of servicing the mortgage. Here are a few graphs on housing costs. Between 2008 and 2019 the average household income in Auckland went up by about 50%. Thar was from $61.4k to $95.2k. The average weekly payment for people who had a mortgage only went up by about 20%. That was from $384/week to $460/week
When you look at the cost of buying a home the most important factor is going to be the mortgage interest rate. First mortgage rates in 2008 were about 8%. They are now, if the ASB quote in front of me is typical 2.29% for a 1 year fixed rate.
The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer.
A note. This is not an area on Economics in which I have much knowledge or experience so all the numbers I have reference may be irrelevant. At a first glance though it wouldn't appear that people are much affected by the price rises while interest rates are dropping to the point that in real terms the money is free to borrow.
The commentary in the Stats NZ work on this supports this cost-of-mortgage issue. But it fails the obvious corollary: as prices go up, so too does the potential equity for deposits from Bank Of Mum And Dad (especially when they downsize, or die).
Even without interest, the average borrowing for a first home loan is almost half a mil.
That ain't chump change to pay back weekly, by itself.
People buying their first homes need to be doing damned well.
Unless you can figure out some way of paying the same price while not borrowing so much, the two figures are pretty good substitutes for each other when it comes to looking at why people can't afford to own their own hovel.
I am not disputing that it isn't easy. Mind you I can remember when my mortgage rate was 13%. That was back in the 70's and I knew people who were paying more.
However I had a quick look at payments using the BNZ calculator.
On an $800k house with a 20% deposit and a 30 year term at 2.29% you pay $1,132,fortnight. On a property at half the price, and half the deposit for the same 30 years loan you would pay exactly the same amount if you were paying 8.5% which would have been quite likely back in 2008. Half the amount borrowed but the same $1,132 at the much higher interest rate.
On the monthly income for a household at the average number of $$95.2k/year you would be paying 31% of your income on your mortgage.
Where did the first home buyer get the extra $80k for the 20% deposit in 2020? Their income only went up by less than 50%. And their rent payments are through the roof, as well, so their savings might struggle to hit a wage inflation equivalent.
"The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer."
I don't know. I haven't been in the market for a mortgage for 30 years. We did save our deposit for our first house in about 18 months though by living on about half of one of our two incomes. The total furniture we had in a one bedroom flat cost us about $100 dollars. I will admit we had one 10 year old car though. Entertainment was limited to barbecues with friends or going to the beach.
Well the Chinese especially tend to regard their elders with considerable respect – and not so much of the 'ok boomer'.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
And of course rising divorce rates over the period in question also have their impact – nothing destroys family wealth over time quite like it.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
Only in a society with entrenched inequity and social mobility that does not reflect individual merit.
It's not a binary choice. Yes merit and mobility are valued highly in the West – but a well ordered and stable family over multiple generations will always have an advantage.
Why not? And how would you prevent family success from benefiting the whole family? Are parents to be prohibited from helping their children if they can?
Insisting on nothing but a pure meritocracy seems an absolutist view to me.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not. That's the point.
But my objection to the current situation isn't that NZ isn't a perfect meritocracy. My objection is that we're becoming less of a meritocracy. You can cloak it in "respect for elders" and "family stability" all you want, it's the simple greed of a previous generation turning into a dynastic problem.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: his solutions to the problems he described were bunk, but Marx was a spot-on critic of capitalism and feudalism. They're just two sides of the same coin. The Duke's ancestor hit peasants over the head with clubs, the magnate's ancestor paid other people to hit workers over the head with clubs.
So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income, that would be an income of $100k a year.
Basically, the govt needs to either build shitloads of affordable homes or build shitloads of state houses and have say a HNZ 5% stock turnover for modernisation in addition to a general increase in stock levels, sold through a rent to own equity deal.
Because this is a formalisation of an intergenerational class system. Not the one we've been ignoring and pretending doesn't exist, an actual regression back towards feudalism. Not all the way back, but a definite step back.
"So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income".
A minor correction but it wasn't one income. It was one and a half incomes. We lived on one quarter of our after tax income and saved the rest.
That was quite common at the time. We were, like all our friends, trying very hard to get to own our own home. We were also willing to live a great deal further out from the CDB than many people seem to be willing to do today and lots of people did not have a car.
I found it quite hilarious a couple of years ago to read about a 30 something woman who was complaining that she couldn't afford a first house. Her idea of a first house was 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in Roseneath, Mt Vic or Mt Cook. There was no way she was going out to the distant suburb of Hataitai. If you aren't a Wellingtonian look it up. It would be comparable to refusing to live way out in the wilds of Epsom I suppose.
This article is in some ways quite good on looking separately at both sides of the housing market. Though I didn't really like Eastons alternative of demand backed by offshore financing, as this doesn't either fit the facts.
First the banking system doesn't lend out existing deposits but instead creates additional deposits when extending loans. Second the fact that a trade deficit was occuring simultaneously to an expansion in borrowing will mean an expansion in overseas ownership domestically, but a lot of the overseas trades are not in $NZ so in what sense is that supporting lending into a housing market almost exclusively trading in $NZ. This explanation is equally likely to misslead as the explanation it replaces.
The bank may create credit but they are still required to hold reserves and the size of those reserves determines how much credit they can create…..and a glut of international liquidity looking for a safe home and return knows which side their bread is buttered on.
Your talking about 'capital' not reserves there (especially in the context of overseas funding), and capital is still not a constraint on lending. It might place limits on the interest rates accessible in some cases.
But the simpler explanation is just that a lot of those recent house sellers at the time also took overseas trips.
Wrong …the amount of credit a bank can create is directly linked to their reserves and that capital can (and does) come from offshore…the interest rates are a consequence of the ability to service the level of debt (credit).
The country didn't instigate a housing bubble based on money it borrowed overseas. That would be a very missleading claim, and I expect you would not claim it happened either. Yes, the implication is that the country can manufacture as much capital as it needs to facilitate lending for itself.
the glut of money sloshing around the world looks for a home and preferably a safe one with good access…..where better than backing the banks of open economies, ones with a political class wedded to the idea of free capital flows. The Banks use that increased reserve capacity to grow their loan books and thereby increase their profits, everybody wins,,,except for the poor mugs being milked for every available penny when they try and enter the housing market,
And the Gov is trapped because if they seriously try to do anything about housing affordability that capital in the banks reserves will find a new home …and probably not in NZ.
Capital outflow equals negative growth not to mention all the associated problems
Under the Pope’s guidance, these “guardians” aim to “reform capitalism into a powerful force for the good of humanity” and create a “more inclusive, sustainable and trusted form of capitalism.”
Capitalism has lifted billions of people out of poverty, but many in society have been left behind and the planet has paid a price. There is a moral imperative to address this challenge, and we are taking action.
What a lot of people here have missed is that many boardrooms across the US and EU have been quietly working toward all kinds of social and economic reforms. But because it's 'fucking capitalists' it never gets onto our radar.
It's a theme I'd have picked up on more – but every time I type the word 'capitalist' a kind of red mist descends. eg McF predictably above.
Well history is tilting in ways never encountered before.
Basically we've tried three major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism – and of the three only the first has shown the necessary evolutionary capacity to adapt to the new world we're heading into.
It's all about the demographics. Young adults are consumers of goods and services, mid-aged adults are investors in capital and services, and retired adults are consumers of capital. At least in very broad terms.
For the first time in all of our history our populations are now quite rapidly becoming dominated by late adult to retired aged populations. Fully half of all Boomers will retire in 2022. Suddenly growth is no longer possible or even desirable. And none of the economic systems we've ever attempted have ever been exposed to this scenario – but I'd put my bet on capitalism being the one most likely to evolve to meet the challenge.
major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism
Could you perhaps explain the differences between these 'economic variants'? Particularly the economic differences between capitalism and fascism.
Thanks in advance.
I see China are trying to join the TPP as is the UK. Does this mean that a large state actor like China or the UK could sue our government if we don't toe their line with regard to commercial companies. Given that a lot of chinese commercial investment seems to have some sort of state back up how exposed does this leave us?
I'm pretty confused but is it time that the existing TPP members rolled back a lot of the not actual trading and tariffs parts of the agreement so that the grouping is less attractive to major players. It all seems to reduce our ability both domestically and internationally? Should a trade agreement affect domestic politics that much?
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This video produced in Seattle looks at the gender identity curriculum used in schools in the US. A thin veneer of pseudoscience is being used to indoctrinate children with an ideology based on scientific and medical inaccuracies. ...
For once, I have written my submission on a bill with enough time to spare to both enocurage any of you who wants to make a submission to do so as well, and to give you time to spot the typos in mine.Louisa Wall's Harmful Digital Communications (Unauthorised Posting of Intimate ...
A friend found a concerning FB post (see below – this is a public post & so I have not redacted the name) & – as you do – immediately queried it with Southern Cross Life & Health Insurance as well as sending the screenshot to me¹. We both read ...
Judith Collins’ National Party leadership is under more scrutiny, with increased talk in the media of her being replaced by brand new MP Christopher Luxon. For many commentators it’s just a question of “when” rather than “if” Collins is replaced. While others ponder whether Luxon really has what it takes ...
‘Tis the season for unearthing the rarest gems in Tolkien adaptation – which, considering that the fandom has been dominated by Peter Jackson for nigh on two decades, is a positively heart-warming development. It is why I have devoted so much blog space to the obscure and weirdly wonderful ...
Whatever the damage, especially to the British economy, Brexit has done us a service by illustrating the complexity of trade.Brexit is the only example we have of two closely integrated sophisticated economies severing trading ties. The European Union and Britain still do not have tariffs or import quotas between them ...
The Palmerston North City Council has voted for Māori wards: Palmerston North Māori will be guaranteed one or two seats on the city council from 2022, and this time, there is nothing opponents can do about it. The council decided by an 11-5 vote at its monthly meeting this ...
Kids are striking for the climate today, demanding a decent, liveable future. Meanwhile, the National Party, the reliable servant of the farm lobby and other polluting businesses, is calling for action to be delayed: National has written to Climate Change Minister James Shaw calling for him to extend the ...
Today tens of thousands of schoolkids have walked out of school to strike for a future free from climate change. And tens of thousands of older New Zealanders have joined them. Their demands are clear: eliminate fossil fuels, implement 100% renewable energy with a just transition, and support our Pacific ...
The Gods That Failed.We studied the dialecticRead the whole of ‘Capital’So we could follow youSo we could follow youHow we shoutedHow we scrawledPainted slogans on city wallsOn prison wallsProof we had followed youBut, we still didn’t find what we’re looking forAnd we still haven’t found what we’re looking forWhen they ...
Conventional Wisdom? The Republican Right is convinced that to “go woke” is to “go broke”. It simply does not believe sufficient Americans feel strongly enough about social justice to make any kind of boycott remotely effective. Clearly, the Boards of Directors of more and more American corporations disagree. RECENT MOVES by ...
On November 25, 2020 Skeptical Science Inc. became a registered nonprofit organization and on March 17, 2021 our application to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service for 501(c)(3) status was approved. In this blog post, we’ll explain why we went down this path and what will come next. Since its ...
Blowing Hot And Cold: Mike Hosking’s bosses should, perhaps, ask themselves what message Newstalk-ZB (and NZME) is sending to the people of New Zealand if Mike Hosking, their self-appointed “People’s Prosecutor”, is accorded bragging rights for “cancelling” the democratically-elected Prime Minister of New Zealand. Especially when said Prime Minister’s only ...
Ali Boyle, University of CambridgeIf you ask people to list the most intelligent animals, they’ll name a few usual suspects. Chimpanzees, dolphins and elephants are often mentioned, as are crows, dogs and occasionally pigs. Horses don’t usually get a look in. So it might come as a surprise that ...
Selwyn Manning and I dedicated this week’s video podcast to the potential emergence of rival blocs within the transitional process involved in the move from a unipolar to a multipolar international system currently underway. However one characterises the phenomenon–autocracies versus democracies, East versus West, colonial versus post-colonial–the global order is ...
With the rediscovery of the lost Soviet Lord of the Rings, the time has come for the important things in life. Specifically, compiling the Tom Bombadil scenes from the three known screen adaptations that feature him: This is a collection of scenes from:– Sagan om Ringen (1971: ...
Back in February the Climate Change Commission recommended a ban on new coal-fired boilers, and a phase out of existing ones by 2037. And today, the government has said they will implement that policy, and backed it up with funding to help transition some of our large pollution sources: ...
A ballot for three members bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Income Tax (Adjustment of Taxable Income Ranges) Amendment Bill (Simon Bridges) Regulatory Standards Bill (David Seymour) Human Rights (Disability Assist Dogs Non-Discrimination) Amendment Bill (Ricardo Menéndez March) The first two ...
The Greens welcome $6.6 million from the Government’s $455 million programme to increase access to mental health and addiction services for our Pasifika communities in Auckland and Wellington. ...
The Green Party is putting a Member’s Bill into the ballot today which will be a significant step towards overhauling the Social Security Act by embedding a tikanga Māori framework into the welfare system. ...
The Green Party have reaffirmed their strong commitment to the union movement in Aotearoa New Zealand by renewing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with E Tū. ...
Soon, more kids in Aotearoa will have access to the in-school mental health support that has boosted the resilience of tamariki and whānau in Canterbury. ...
The Green Party supports the open letter released today by a cross-sector coalition calling for the Government to treat all drug use as a health issue, to repeal and replace the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975. ...
Small businesses are not only the heart of our economy – they’re also the heart of our communities. They provide important goods and services, as well as great employment opportunities. They know and love their locals. And after a tough year, they need our support! ...
Green Party spokesperson for Pacific Peoples Teanau Tuiono MP, supports the demand from Pasifika communities fighting for climate action as their homelands are more at risk in the Pacific region. ...
The Green Party supports the six demands for climate action put forward by School Strike for Climate NZ, who are striking across the country today. ...
The Ministry of Justice Māori victimisation report, released today, reinforces what we already know about the impact of systemic racism in Aotearoa and that urgent action is needed. ...
Ricardo Menéndez March’s Members Bill to ensure that disabled New Zealanders do not face discrimination for having a disability assist dog was today pulled from the biscuit tin to be debated in Parliament. ...
More than one million people will be better off from today, thanks to our Government’s changes to the minimum wage, main benefits and superannuation. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to do more for New Zealanders who continue to miss out, as main benefits are set to rise by less than $8 a week tomorrow, Thursday 1 April (at the start of the financial year). ...
New Zealand is providing further support to Timor-Leste following severe flooding and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “Our thoughts are with the people of Timor-Leste who have been impacted by the severe flooding and landslides at a time when the country is ...
A ceremony has been held today in Gisborne where the unclaimed medals of 28 (Māori) Battalion C Company soldiers were presented to their families. After the Second World War, returning service personnel needed to apply for their medals and then they would be posted out to them. While most medals ...
New Zealand has today added its voice to the international condemnation of the malicious compromise and exploitation of the SolarWinds Orion platform. The Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau, Andrew Little, says that New Zealand's international partners have analysed the compromise of the SolarWinds Orion platform and attributed ...
An expert consenting panel has approved the Queenstown Arterials Project, which will significantly improve transport links and reduce congestion for locals and visitors in the tourism hotspot. Environment Minister David Parker welcomed the approval for the project that will construct, operate and maintain a new urban road around Queenstown’s town ...
Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash says a landmark deal has been agreed with Amazon for The Lord of the Rings TV series, currently being filmed in New Zealand. Mr Nash says the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) secures multi-year economic and tourism benefits to New Zealand, outside the screen ...
The Government welcomes the findings from a rapid review into the health system response to lead contamination in Waikouaiti’s drinking water supply. Sample results from the town’s drinking-water supply showed intermittent spikes in lead levels above the maximum acceptable value. The source of the contamination is still under investigation by ...
Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the start of construction on the New Zealand Upgrade Programme’s Papakura to Drury South project on Auckland’s Southern Motorway, which will create hundreds of jobs and support Auckland’s economic recovery. The SH1 Papakura to Drury South project will give more transport choices by providing ...
CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā karanga maha o te wa, tēnā koutou, tēna koutou, tēna tātou katoa. Ki ngā mana whenua, ko Ngāi Tahu, ko Waitaha, ko Kāti Māmoe anō nei aku mihi ki a koutou. Nōku te hōnore kia haere mai ki te ...
Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the completion of upgrades to State Highway 20B which will give Aucklanders quick electric bus trips to and from the airport. The State Highway 20B Early Improvements project has added new lanes in each direction between Pukaki Creek Bridge and SH20 for buses and ...
The Government is putting in place a review of the work being done on animal welfare and safety in the greyhound racing industry, Grant Robertson announced today. “While Greyhound Racing NZ has reported some progress in implementing the recommendations of the Hansen Report, recent incidents show the industry still has ...
The infringement fee for using a mobile phone while driving will increase from $80 to $150 from 30 April 2021 to encourage safer driving, Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood said too many people are still picking up the phone while driving. “Police issued over 40,000 infringement notices ...
Pacific people in New Zealand will be better supported with new mental health and addiction services rolling out across the Auckland and Wellington regions, says Aupito William Sio. “One size does not fit all when it comes to supporting the mental wellbeing of our Pacific peoples. We need a by ...
New measures are being proposed to accelerate progress towards becoming a smokefree nation by 2025, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced. “Smoking or exposure to second-hand smoke kills around 12 people a day in New Zealand. Recent data tells us New Zealand’s smoking rates continue to decrease, but ...
More children will be able to access mental wellbeing support with the Government expansion of Mana Ake services to five new District Health Board areas, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Health Minister made the announcement while visiting Homai School in Counties Manukau alongside Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate ...
The Government’s COVID-19 response has meant a record number of people moved off a Benefit and into employment in the March Quarter, with 32,880 moving into work in the first three months of 2021. “More people moved into work last quarter than any time since the Ministry of Social Development ...
A stocktake undertaken by France and New Zealand shows significant global progress under the Christchurch Call towards its goal to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. The findings of the report released today reinforce the importance of a multi-stakeholder approach, with countries, companies and civil society working together to ...
Racing Minister Grant Robertson has announced he is appointing Elizabeth Dawson (Liz) as the Chair of the interim TAB NZ Board. Liz Dawson is an existing Board Director of the interim TAB NZ Board and Chair of the TAB NZ Board Selection Panel and will continue in her role as ...
The Government has announced that the export of livestock by sea will cease following a transition period of up to two years, said Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. “At the heart of our decision is upholding New Zealand’s reputation for high standards of animal welfare. We must stay ahead of the ...
WORKSHOP ON LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS Wednesday 14 April 2021 MINISTER FOR DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL OPENING REMARKS Good morning, I am so pleased to be able to join you for part of this workshop, which I’m confident will help us along the path to developing New Zealand’s national policy on ...
For the first time, all 18 prisons in New Zealand will be invited to participate in an inter-prison kapa haka competition, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. The 2021 Hōkai Rangi Whakataetae Kapa Haka will see groups prepare and perform kapa haka for experienced judges who visit each prison and ...
The Government has introduced the Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill, designed to boost New Zealand's ability to respond to a wider range of terrorist activities. The Bill strengthens New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm. “This is the Government’s first ...
Coal boiler replacements at a further ten schools, saving an estimated 7,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Fossil fuel boiler replacements at Southern Institute of Technology and Taranaki DHB, saving nearly 14,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Projects to achieve a total ...
Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of Cassie Nicholson as Chief Parliamentary Counsel for a term of five years. The Chief Parliamentary Counsel is the principal advisor and Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Counsel Office (PCO). She is responsible for ensuring PCO, which drafts most of New Zealand’s legislation, provides ...
Every part of Government will need to take urgent action to bring down emissions, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today in response to the recent rise in New Zealand’s greenhouse emissions. The latest annual inventory of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions shows that both gross and net ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark says Aotearoa New Zealand has become the first country in the world to introduce a law that requires the financial sector to disclose the impacts of climate change on their business and explain how they will manage climate-related risks and opportunities. The Financial ...
Exceptional employment practices in the primary industries have been celebrated at the Good Employer Awards, held this evening at Parliament. “Tonight’s awards provided the opportunity to celebrate and thank those employers in the food and fibres sector who have gone beyond business-as-usual in creating productive, safe, supportive, and healthy work ...
Applications are now invited from all councils for a slice of government funding aimed at improving tourism infrastructure, especially in areas under pressure given the size of their rating bases. Tourism Minister Stuart Nash has already signalled that five South Island regions will be given priority to reflect that jobs ...
Tēnā koutou e ngā maata waka Tenā koutou te hau kāinga ngā iwi o Te Whanganui ā TaraTēnā koutou i runga i te kaupapa o te Rā. No reira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tatou katoa. It is a pleasure to be here tonight. Thank you Graeme (Peters, ENA Chief ...
The Construction Skills Action Plan has delivered early on its overall target of supporting an additional 4,000 people into construction-related education and employment, says Minister for Building and Construction Poto Williams. Since the Plan was launched in 2018, more than 9,300 people have taken up education or employment opportunities in ...
An innovative new Youth Justice residence designed in partnership with Māori will provide prevention, healing, and rehabilitation services for both young people and their whānau, Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Whakatakapokai is located in South Auckland and will provide care and support for up to 15 rangatahi remanded or ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today expressed New Zealand’s sorrow at the death of His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. “Our thoughts are with Her Majesty The Queen at this profoundly sad time. On behalf of the New Zealand people and the Government, I would like to express ...
We, the Home Affairs, Interior, Security and Immigration Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States of America (the ‘Five Countries’) met via video conference on 7/8 April 2021, just over a year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Guided by our shared ...
Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni has today announced the opening of the first round of Ngā Puninga Toi ā-Ahurea me ngā Kaupapa Cultural Installations and Events. “Creating jobs and helping the arts sector rebuild and recover continues to be a key part of the Government’s COVID-19 response,” Carmel ...
Interim legislation that is already proving to keep people safer from drugs will be made permanent, Health Minister Andrew Little says. Research by Victoria University, on behalf of the Ministry of Health, shows that the Government’s decision in December to make it legal for drug-checking services to operate at festivals ...
Public consultation launched on ways to improve behaviour and reduce damage Tighter rules proposed for either camping vehicles or camping locations Increased penalties proposed, such as $1,000 fines or vehicle confiscation Rental companies may be required to collect fines from campers who hire vehicles Public feedback is sought on proposals ...
The Government is continuing to support Air New Zealand while aviation markets stabilise and the world moves towards more normal border operations. The Crown loan facility made available to Air New Zealand in March 2020 has been extended to a debt facility of up to $1.5 billion (an additional $600 ...
Christchurch’s Richmond suburb will soon have a new community hub, following the gifting of a red-zoned property by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to the Richmond Community Gardens Trust. The Minister for Land Information, Damien O’Connor said that LINZ, on behalf of the Crown, will gift a Vogel Street house ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the reopening of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples’ (MPP) Languages Funding in 2021 will make sure there is a future for Pacific languages. “Language is the key to the wellbeing for Pacific people. It affirms our identity as Pasifika and ...
It is a pleasure to be here tonight. Thank you Cameron for the introduction and thank you for ERANZ for also hosting this event. Last week in fact, we had one of the largest gatherings in our sector, Downstream 2021. I have heard from my officials that the discussion on ...
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has today announced the 16 projects that will together get $3.9 million through the 2021 round of Te Pūnaha Hihiko: Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund, further strengthening the Government’s commitment to Māori knowledge in science and innovation. “We received 78 proposals - the highest ...
“The Government’s proposed Hate Speech Laws mean someone could spend longer in jail for having an unpopular opinion than assaulting a child, male assaults female, participating in a riot and common assault," says ACT Leader David Seymour. ...
New Zealand's demi-official poet laureate Victor Billot composes an ode to a public figure every Sunday. Today: Prince PhilipThe artist formerly known as Prince He is fallen, just short of one hundred. An antique connection sundered with an old and vanished world over which the Union ...
Analysis by Bryce Edwards Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. The Labour Government received plaudits this week for its historic announcement that it will ban the live export of animals by sea. It’s said to be a world first. The decision comes after years of pressure, which increased after last year’s ...
The House: Calls to force witnesses to child abuse to speak, reforming adoption law for same-sex couples, and better protections for religious freedoms have been made by petitions to Parliament. ...
Creamerie is a new dystopian comedy about three New Zealand women and the last man on earth. Its co-creator and co-star, Perlina Lau, explains how they made a show about the aftermath of a deadly pandemic, during a pandemic.In 2018, when we sat around a dining table spitballing ideas about ...
James Borrowdale bids farewell to a summer of cricket with his oblivious baby daughter.Made possible thanks to the support of Creative New ZealandOriginal illustrations by Sophie Watson If cricket, at least in its longer forms, can lay claim to something approaching artistic meaning – that is, for its actions to ...
Why are ice core samples and marine algae important for understanding our climate in the future? Dr Holly Winton, a geochemist with the Antarctic Research Centre at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, explains in this short video.Winton is working on a Rutherford Foundation-funded project analysing ...
Sebastian Contreras Rodriguez was an architect in Chile, but after moving to New Zealand he started working as a housekeeper. Federico Magrin speaks to him about architecture being a service for the poor, and the differences between Chile and New Zealand. Sebastian joins me after a tiresome and proving day at ...
University of Otago researchers examine 2000-3000-year-old skulls to uncover why Pacific communities of that era intentionally pulled their teeth Ritual tooth ablation, the intentional removal of teeth, is a highly visible form of body modification that can signal group identity and mark certain life events, such as marriage. In our ...
New Zealand’s favourite autumnal fruit meets a fancy-sounding but super-simple French dessert. The result? Delicious. There is only so much you can do with the fruit that drops (non-stop) from 17 feijoa trees. We’ve had ripe fruit peppering our lawn now for over two weeks. So far I’ve used them to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Hancock, School visitor, Australian National University Andrew Sharp Peacock, for so long “the coming man” of Australian politics, has died in the United States aged 82. Born in 1939, he was educated at Scotch College, Melbourne, acquired a law degree at ...
“ A Ministry of Health graph drawn by a graphic designer with no data to inform it is the perfect metaphor for this Government, all spin and no substance,” says ACT Leader David Seymour. “Like most things with this government, they present ...
OWell, well, well. New Zealand its expressing its indignation about something the Russians may or may not have been doing. But this expression of the nation’s indignation comes not from Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta but from Andrew Little, our Minister of … No, not Health on this occasion. Nor ...
"He pulled down the straps of her tank top with his teeth and bit her neck..Afterwards, she pretended it didn’t happen": a short story by Auckland writer Leanne RadojkovichA teenager riding an e-scooter shot across the intersection towards Patsy, she stepped aside, the front wheel took the ...
Critic's Chair: Guy Somerset watches and listens to two wonderful series on YouTube and Spotify featuring great raconteurs and wits broadcast from their homes during the long UK lockdown This week, the UK started off along the second stage of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “cautious but irreversible” roadmap to the ...
What happens when the world’s rarest gull sets up camp in earthquake-damaged buildings in central Christchurch? Frank Film investigates. Christchurch’s population of endangered tarāpuka/black-billed gulls may have a new home. The Christchurch City Council is hoping to fashion a new site for the gulls in what was once part of ...
WATCH: In the heart-wrenching final episode of the Pure As video series, Silver Ferns shooter Maia Wilson reveals the on-court highs and off-court lows she's been through. Maia Wilson's young life has already been an emotional rollercoaster. While her netball career soars to new heights every time she takes the court, away ...
After a marathon year of droughts and water restrictions, Auckland finally has a goal to reduce its water consumption Water, water everywhere, and most certainly in the news. After a massive public information campaign last year, Aucklanders managed to knock 100 million litres a day off the city’s water consumption. ...
LISTEN: Is 2021 the year the Tactix finally get to lift netball's ANZ Premiership trophy? with the ANZ Premiership starting this weekend, how will the absence of Silver Fern captain Amerliaranne Ekenasio affect the two-time champions Central Pulse? What impact will Australian international Caitlin Bassett have for the Waikato Bay of ...
A new initiative is taking on food insecurity and food wastage by encouraging diners to take uneaten food home. And, as chefs taking part of the scheme explain, what you do with those leftovers needn’t be limited to a quick blat in the microwave. It’s hard to know just how much ...
With the council in disarray, former Wellington mayor Justin Lester sat down with The Spinoff to share his thoughts on what’s gone wrong, and what needs to happen from here. Justin Lester is running again. When we meet at the Civic Square cafe Nikau, the former Wellington mayor is breaking in a ...
After months of lockdown, pubs in England were allowed to reopen this week, with outdoor seating only. New Zealander George Fenwick headed out to see how Londoners were welcoming the return of a cornerstone of British social life.Trying to explain what life has been like in the UK for the ...
The government's priorities are being questioned after announcing it will be giving Amazon a more than $100 million boost to film the Lord of the Rings television series here. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Keane, Professor of Chinese Digital Media and Culture, Queensland University of Technology China’s state-run anti-monopoly bureau has tightened its regulations on big tech players, as shown by its recent move against the country’s largest e-commerce company, Alibaba Group. Alibaba was hit ...
Campaign & Petition Launch “Racial INJustice Matters” calling for an immediate independent inquiry into Institutional Racism and Racial Profiling by the Waikato Police. Where we live, work, play should be safe for everyone, no matter ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Director of the Institute for Governance & Policy Analysis Dr Lain Dare discuss the week in politics. This week the pair discuss the evidence given by Christine ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Carlson, Professor, Indigenous Studies, Macquarie University Recently, we have witnessed an uprising of thousands marching in the streets fuelled by outrage against the violence and sexual assault experienced by women. Indigenous women and gender diverse people also marched and shared this ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. India only at Magnitude 4 for reported cases. Chart by Keith Rankin. New Zealand has, for the rest of this month, banned all people who have been in India this month from entry into New Zealand. The decision is based not on the incidence of Covid19 ...
The screen industry – or some of its more well-heeled operators – today learned the government is keen to improve its wellbeing. This followed several blasts of Beehive trumpeting about initiatives to improve the wellbeing and wellness of we Kiwis. The announcements yesterday included the heartening news that the Government’s ...
The new Ministry for Ethnic Communities comes into being on 1 July. It’s important that the views and needs of Aotearoa New Zealand’s many and diverse ethnic communities help set the priorities for the new organisation from day one. We are running a series ...
The National Party need to take a good hard look at themselves, following their Economic Development spokesperson’s endorsement of Kiwi taxpayers stumping up for welfare for the American multi billion dollar corporation, Amazon. Responding to ...
New Zealand is not rejigging its Covid-19 immunisation programme despite predictions people will need a third dose of the Pfizer vaccine within 12 months. ...
Predator Free 2050 Limited has announced new investments in predator free projects around the country. Existing projects in Taranaki, Waiheke and Dunedin, a new project in Te Urewera, and a feasibility study on Aotea Great Barrier Island will benefit ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Mitchell, Professor of Nursing, University of Newcastle The Australian public’s infection control literacy continues to expand. We know what PPE is, what “flattening the curve” means, and we are growing increasingly familiar with the term “deep clean”. But what does a ...
The High Court in Auckland this week ordered overseas investors to pay penalties totalling $1.38 million and legal costs for breaching the Overseas Investment Act. The significant penalty follows a family purchasing five forestry blocks totalling ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1The Mirror Book by Charlotte Grimshaw (Vintage, $38)It’s the book everyone’s talking about – and writing about. ...
A little understanding – and a few simple, easy-to-follow rules – can make a huge difference to our lives, Autistic advocate Rory McCarthy writes.Autistic people have difficult lives: a lot of things that seem trivial or a sign of over-sensitivity to allistic (non-Autistic people) actually affect us quite significantly. There ...
Analysis - A startling revelation shows up cracks in the testing regime just as the vaccine rollout comes under scrutiny, and National faces another bout of leadership speculation, writes Peter Wilson. ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is urging ACC to ignore diktats from the Minister of Finance . “ACC should be left to independently manage the hard-earned funds it receives from levy-payers,” says Union spokesman Jordan Williams. “It’s ...
The New Zealand Veterinary Association (NZVA) is not surprised by the government’s decision to ban live exports by sea and believes the two- year transition period is pragmatic for businesses in the sector. We are not surprised by the decision and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cristina Pozo-Gonzalo, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin University Rare-earth metals are critical to the high-tech society we live in as an essential component of mobile phones, computers and many other everyday devices. But increasing demand and limited global supply means we must urgently ...
Looking to buy a unit or apartment? You might need to think twice or even three times, if this Prime documentary is anything to go by, writes Jacqueline Paul.If you are hoping to buy a home built between the late 1980s and the mid-2000s, there is a significant risk that ...
Amid some in-House knitting drama this week, there was more speculation the knives are out for National Party leader Judith Collins. But doesn't National always have its knives out? James Elliott has the news of the week. It was an exciting week for those holding tickets in the “Seymour Sweepstake”, ...
A poem from Mohamed Hassan’s Ockham-shortlisted collection National Anthem.And before that we were starsCan you please look at this poem and tell me if it’s good?it’s for my fiancé she’s really far away I want to say how I feel but my English is limited, can you read it?she works ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage. Click here to subscribe to Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup and New Zealand Politics Daily. Today’s contentNational Party leadership Matthew Hooton (Herald): My message to National – and how to avoid ...
A new full-time role recording, editing and mixing content for The Spinoff podcast network, based in our Morningside office. We’re looking for an experienced sound engineer. The successful applicant will be responsible for recording, editing and mixing content for The Spinoff podcast network and managing the podcast studio. In addition to ...
Rainbow youth still facing stigma and stress but positive signs: new findings Youth19, the latest in a series of surveys focused on young people in Aotearoa, asked 7,721 secondary school-aged students about their experiences of school, home and community. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rajib Dasgupta, Chairperson, Centre of Social Medicine and Community Health, Jawaharlal Nehru University India is in the grip of a massive second wave of COVID-19 infections, surpassing even the United States and Brazil in terms of new daily infections. The current spike ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW Perhaps the most important lesson from the Christine Holgate controversy is that the confluence of sexism and politics leads to double standards for female executives. But Holgate’s demise – pushed from her position as Australia Post’s ...
The $162 million subsidy for one of the world’s richest companies proves Amazon has New Zealand taxpayers over a barrel, says the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union . Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke says, “Treasury has previously warned that our ...
The Government has just announced a review of the greyhound racing industry, following reports from SAFE, Greyhound Protection League and Grey2K USA Worldwide of ongoing cruelty within the greyhound racing industry. In the announcement, Minister for Racing ...
Books editor Catherine Woulfe with a personal story about structured literacy, the step-by-step reading system that’s gaining traction across the country. My boy is called Ben and he turns seven in October. In the battle over how kids learn to read, he is a data point of one. But he ...
Wellington, 15 April 2021 - Cancer Society says Government's proposed smokefree plan includes bold and forward-thinking measures that are needed at this time to make smokefree 2025 a reality. S moking is the biggest cause of cancer and preventable ...
Climate justice organisation 350 Aotearoa is celebrating the direction from the government for the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to accelerate its moves to divest from investments in fossil fuels. The direction to ACC to divest ...
Far from worshipping their former colonial masters, by proudly appropriating and indigenising a piece of British culture the Tannese are asserting their own mana, writes Scott Hamilton.In the aftermath of Prince Philip’s death, the western media has turned its gaze to Tanna, a mountainous island in the far south of ...
The Federation of Islamic Associations is accusing the Office of Ethnic Communities of being insensitive by scheduling community meetings during the holy month of Ramadan. ...
The government’s slight increase in fines for drivers illegally using cellphones is ‘pathetic’, says the car review website dogandlemon.com . Editor Clive Matthew-Wilson, who is an outspoken road safety campaigner, says many drivers will simply continue ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s live updates for April 16, bringing you the latest news throughout the day. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nz 8.00am: Fine for using a cell phone while driving almost doubles You’ll seen be fined $150 if you’re caught using a cell phone while behind the wheel, transport ...
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Why building more houses will not fix prices – economist Brian Easton. https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/the-sources-of-house-price-inflation
I'm inclined to agree. Shortages are simply an intractable backdrop against which interest, and monetary policy generally, serve to exacerbate the problems that shortages cause.
Why must house prices be fixed?
because people need to be able to afford to live in them.
If you had answered:
Because people need to be able to afford to own them, I would have agreed.
House price fixing concerns ownership. It certainly has secondary effects, but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.
Easton is making some massive correlations, but no useful causes.
but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.
As I've said a few times before; if you think the rent is high – try owning it.
owning and renting are two different things. And renting to use for a while should never cost more then owning does, and currently renters pay the mortgage, the interest, and what ever else the owner wants out of the property.
btw, my mortgage that i pay currently is 200$ per week.
you can't even rent a dog kennel for that amount anywhere in NZ.
I reckon, my mortgage is $210 a week, if I rented the same house it would be double, and with no return. Free insulation, cheap rates, I could also halve that if I got a flatmate (which I may do once my kids leave). I don't take this for granted, I realise I'm one of the lucky few.
+1
ditto here. And the bank don't come to inspect every three month.
Have to strongly disagree with you there RL, we are in our first own house (nearly freehold) after renting for 30+years the last 15 of those with three children, owning your own home has for us probably been pretty similar, maybe a bit more expensive but not a lot, and especially when you take into account all the benefits…the main one is not having to deal with Ma&Pa landlords they are generally like spawns from hell, they have made renting a fucking nightmare, it is awful, and no country that has the resources NZ has should let it’s citizens endure that type of life…welcome to free market liberalism I guess, markets operating just as they should…Thanks David Lange.
Gone are the old days when you would rent a house and live in it for years and hardly be bothered as long as you paid your rent and maintained the property…our last ten years of renting were a disaster (with one exception) as far as landlords went…even if owning a home was/is more expensive, how can you put a price on the endless stress and worry and more importantly the hundred of subtle ways it damages and undermines children having little to no long term home security.
Nope.
Owning a home provides security that no amount of rental law cannot.
The trouble is that house prices do not reflect the cost of owning a home. They reflect the cost of the expected medium-term capital gains (post bright-line). It wasn't a problem when they reflected the expected gains upon retirement and downsizing, but now who honestly expects to be in that house for thirty years? Or do they expect to flip it in ten years or so?
Agree with the security bit. I've seen the pro's and cons of home ownership debated at length in New Zealand literature. They're pretty even.
I'd like to see some proper policy work done on the effects of Andrew Little's current extension of the Bright Line test, and the likeley extension to 10 coming up. Doesn't seem to have made much difference to house prices at all – so if it's not working as intended it should be removed.
Perhaps that is a point of the Easton paper – no one issue will solve the housing crisis. After all the current presumption of intent is flawed, but reversing it would mean that gains up to the time legislation takes effect are likely to remain tax free, so most people would not pay much tax for many years; but owners of rental properties may hold for longer to defer the payment. Requiring a bigger amount of real (not borrowed) equity may be possible , but that would be easier if we increased wages so that the government does not need social welfare or Working for Families to enable new home buyers to afford to live with a family.
If he had started with the 1% homeless crisis – which is about as bad as it gets in the OECD, I would have agreed with him. He didn't.
Pretty even for people who can afford to choose their housing tenure type.
For people at the mercy of a speculative landlord, not so much.
I have a good landlord. Doesn't put the rent up every week etc. . But a batten holder wore out 8 months ago – and it only got fixed last month – no bedroom light all winter. Rentiers are oppressors, even the the good ones.
And of course the inability of contemporary NZers to afford their own homes is the final disproof of neoliberalism. It was supposed to make us more prosperous if you remember – on the contrary, it has impoverished us. Voters, looking at neoliberals think: "Were you really that stupid that you swallowed the hype in spite of our warnings? Or were you just corrupt?"
Because their speculative growth is entrenching even more deeply NZ's trans-generational class system.
Even if a full-time worker can rustle up a 10-20% deposit, I strongly suspect most NZers probably wouldn't earn enough to service the mortgage on a median-priced house.
For me, it was break-even with no margin for error five years ago. Now? It's a joke. And I have a good job, no dependants, and a retirement fund, but houses are more than twice the price. Almost literally – I looked up that house recently. It's gone from $230k to $450k. Has any actual worker's salary doubled in five years?
Absolutely the personal stories are valid.
I'm kinda waiting for evidence of the K-shaped economy to hit.
And it's indisputable that salaries haven't kept up with house prices.
But if Easton had tracked house prices, salaries, and national home ownership, he would have seen no collapse in average ownership at all. Even as prices skyrocketed.
In fact we're still better than nearly all other developed countries for home ownership.
Easton calls it speculation. 65% of us call it risk management.
Might pay to check the stats before making wild claims
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020#:~:text=At%20the%20time%20of%20the%202018%20Census%2C%20New%20Zealand's%20homeownership,to%2064.5%20percent%20of%20households.
and falling.
Easton’s analysis is sound and he is not alone with the conclusions….it has been well canvassed and the only major dispute is around to what degree other factors impact.
Oh don't worry I checked. Which is why I stated 65% home ownership.
And I also checked on the international benchmarks for developed countries.
It's barely moved downward since the last time they measured. You can check.
You just have to read beyond the hysteria.
stating 65% mean sweet FA unless you also state from where it came and what the trend is…as you well know.
and I too have checked…"and falling"
"Home Ownership Rate in New Zealand is expected to reach 64.29 percent by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations."
If youre not already you should be a politician
The home owner percentage has barely moved since 2013.
In the site you cite, go into the full statistical report, fig 15 p 28.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020
Maybe 2021 changes all of that, looking forward to the evidence.
You will get your evidence (sadly)…
"In 1991, 61% of people aged 25-29 owned their own home, but by 2018 this had dropped to 44%.
Ownership rates have also fallen for people in their 30s, dropping from 79% in 1991 to 59% in 2018."
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108312/home-ownership-levels-are-continuing-decline-especially-younger-people
figures 17 -20 from the report if I recall correctly
And the explanation is glaringly obvious, the inflated prices relative to income
And as outlined below there is more to it than just economics – it's the relentlessly increasing age of first marriage that also means that 20-29 age group just aren't interested in buying homes.
Another factor is the rise in divorce rates – usually one partner will finish up renting for a period afterward.
This doesn't discount the obvious affordability issue in play – but it does suggest there are often more factors involved than the headlines make out.
Of course, unmarried people dont buy houses….how could i miss that.
And the 20 -29 year olds arnt interested in buying homes….because they increasingly cant afford them….the same applies to those in their 30s…and the ones that eventually can take considerably longer to raise the increasing deposits.
Those decreased ownership rates in the cohorts coming through are going to have a major impact on the total ownership rates as the proportionately higher ownership rate cohort approaching 70 move into care/die
I would argue one can own multiple houses but only one is ever your home but that's an aside.
To do a real comparison a similar breakdown as above is needed for the historical data.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/mum-and-dad-landlords-own-more-than-a-third-of-property/
And that's households (where homeowners are a member of the household). Only half of individuals own the home they live in, directly or indirectly (same link, p34).
Additionally, although $value of lending to first home buyers peaked last year at 20%, the proportion of actual borrowers at the time was 12%.
The longer this situation goes on, the more nailed in the inequity will be.
"no collapse in average ownership at all"
Are you serious?
65% is barely moved from the last time they measured.
You sound like a CC denialist – "oooh look, this part of the graph is flat!"
A 13% drop in fact.
Go into the full statistical report, fig 15 p 28.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020
Maybe 2021 changes all of that, looking forward to the evidence.
Maybe 2021 will be the start of an ice age.
Heck of a change within a generation, though
If by "generation" you mean the peak in the early 1990s, I'd agree.
If by "generation" you mean back to the 1960s when everything about New Zealand was supposed to be our egalitarian apogee, no not really it's the same.
You not only can't read a graph it seems you can't even read:
"Homeownership at lowest rate since the 1950s" – the heading of the graph you link to.
I thought "generation" generally referred to thirty years or so?
But then if 68.9% is "the same" as 64.5%, I suspect we need to find a specific dictionary to agree upon for a common vernacular.
so not just 1950s but early 1950s.
Yup – the demographics don't lie. Before Rogergnomics the median age at marriage was around 23. After it was 33. Poverty. The social science folk can give the lie to every pretense of good governance.
Not everything is primarily caused by rogernomics. Reducing the social expectation for marriage wasn't just economic.
Keep telling yourself that – the old prof that ranted it at me would not be persuaded. He had plenty more too.
Data doesn't seem to match his claim.
It definitely moved a couple of years in the 1980s, but nowhere near ten years and the median age is still only around 31.
The data here suggests that the more developed a nation is, the faster the rate at which the age of 'first marriage' has been increasing.
The best explanation does not appear to be 'poverty'.
That would be of course because the data aren't set up to capture it.
Measure GDP alone and you could imagine Rogergnomics as something other than a brutal failure. But you would be letting data trickle through your fingers – politically convenient no doubt.
The first world nations have been lying to themselves for a good while now – with falling "labour force participation" instead of unemployment and so on. The lies are getting pretty thick. If everything were apples home ownership wouldn't have had to fall, nor would child (the only politically acceptable poverty) be so high.
All those suicides blamed on mental health too – same trick the Soviets resorted to. Our governors have no standards at all.
All those different countries – and none of them 'properly' capturing age of first marriage to your satisfaction.
Amazing.
Hardly – I'm not trying to extend my assertion around the world – it was you that had to reach beyond NZ to grasp at the straw that because other countries experience lesser forms of the same graphic failure, the brutal sham that was Rogergnomics was somehow excusable.
We all understand the appeal to the vanity of policy makers of a ‘great leap forward’, and I use Mao’s term deliberately, because Rogergnomics was every bit as hubris-laden, destructive, misguided, and undemocratic.
Typical debating fail – jumping to unjustified conclusions. Nowhere have I attempted to excuse neo-liberalism. Indeed if you'd been paying attention I have explicitly written a post on exactly why I regard it as 'out of bounds'.
So nowhere have I attempted to excuse Rogernomics – that’s a just a figment of your imagination. But to attribute everything bad that ever happened in this country to this singular cause is another kind of fail.
The inability to confront and address mistakes is typical of dysfunctional institutions like corporations or corrupted governments.
It isn't the price of the house that is relevant to the person buying it. It is the cost of servicing the mortgage. Here are a few graphs on housing costs. Between 2008 and 2019 the average household income in Auckland went up by about 50%. Thar was from $61.4k to $95.2k. The average weekly payment for people who had a mortgage only went up by about 20%. That was from $384/week to $460/week
https://figure.nz/chart/0Z1fITz5qe80b2tD-szOL5Pza2PB8N51f
When you look at the cost of buying a home the most important factor is going to be the mortgage interest rate. First mortgage rates in 2008 were about 8%. They are now, if the ASB quote in front of me is typical 2.29% for a 1 year fixed rate.
https://teara.govt.nz/files/g-23100-data_0.txt
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/mortgage-rates.html
The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer.
A note. This is not an area on Economics in which I have much knowledge or experience so all the numbers I have reference may be irrelevant. At a first glance though it wouldn't appear that people are much affected by the price rises while interest rates are dropping to the point that in real terms the money is free to borrow.
The commentary in the Stats NZ work on this supports this cost-of-mortgage issue. But it fails the obvious corollary: as prices go up, so too does the potential equity for deposits from Bank Of Mum And Dad (especially when they downsize, or die).
As a sort of comparison.
Bought house in 1980 with 30% deposit Interest was abt 30% of salary then
Now a 60% loan would cost about 25% of the same level of salary.
Having said that the amount of deposit today would be about 300k
Even without interest, the average borrowing for a first home loan is almost half a mil.
That ain't chump change to pay back weekly, by itself.
People buying their first homes need to be doing damned well.
Unless you can figure out some way of paying the same price while not borrowing so much, the two figures are pretty good substitutes for each other when it comes to looking at why people can't afford to own their own hovel.
I am not disputing that it isn't easy. Mind you I can remember when my mortgage rate was 13%. That was back in the 70's and I knew people who were paying more.
However I had a quick look at payments using the BNZ calculator.
On an $800k house with a 20% deposit and a 30 year term at 2.29% you pay $1,132,fortnight. On a property at half the price, and half the deposit for the same 30 years loan you would pay exactly the same amount if you were paying 8.5% which would have been quite likely back in 2008. Half the amount borrowed but the same $1,132 at the much higher interest rate.
On the monthly income for a household at the average number of $$95.2k/year you would be paying 31% of your income on your mortgage.
coolcool.
Where did the first home buyer get the extra $80k for the 20% deposit in 2020? Their income only went up by less than 50%. And their rent payments are through the roof, as well, so their savings might struggle to hit a wage inflation equivalent.
You did notice I said, in my first comment.
"The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer."
I don't know. I haven't been in the market for a mortgage for 30 years. We did save our deposit for our first house in about 18 months though by living on about half of one of our two incomes. The total furniture we had in a one bedroom flat cost us about $100 dollars. I will admit we had one 10 year old car though. Entertainment was limited to barbecues with friends or going to the beach.
These days families are going to have to start thinking intergenerationally – as the Indians and Chinese are accustomed to doing.
Folks know which generation fucked it up.
Well the Chinese especially tend to regard their elders with considerable respect – and not so much of the 'ok boomer'.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
And of course rising divorce rates over the period in question also have their impact – nothing destroys family wealth over time quite like it.
Only in a society with entrenched inequity and social mobility that does not reflect individual merit.
It's not a binary choice. Yes merit and mobility are valued highly in the West – but a well ordered and stable family over multiple generations will always have an advantage.
Not in a meritocracy.
Why not? And how would you prevent family success from benefiting the whole family? Are parents to be prohibited from helping their children if they can?
Insisting on nothing but a pure meritocracy seems an absolutist view to me.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not. That's the point.
But my objection to the current situation isn't that NZ isn't a perfect meritocracy. My objection is that we're becoming less of a meritocracy. You can cloak it in "respect for elders" and "family stability" all you want, it's the simple greed of a previous generation turning into a dynastic problem.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: his solutions to the problems he described were bunk, but Marx was a spot-on critic of capitalism and feudalism. They're just two sides of the same coin. The Duke's ancestor hit peasants over the head with clubs, the magnate's ancestor paid other people to hit workers over the head with clubs.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not.
Tell that to the Chinese or Indians busy building lots of intergenerational wealth in this country – property, businesses, you name it.
The simple reality is that a stable family is one of the best predictors of good social outcomes across the board.
Correction: the one of the biggest predictors of future wealth is parental wealth, and it's getting worse.
BTW, not sure where you're getting your data on household wealth by ethnicity?
So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income, that would be an income of $100k a year.
Basically, the govt needs to either build shitloads of affordable homes or build shitloads of state houses and have say a HNZ 5% stock turnover for modernisation in addition to a general increase in stock levels, sold through a rent to own equity deal.
Because this is a formalisation of an intergenerational class system. Not the one we've been ignoring and pretending doesn't exist, an actual regression back towards feudalism. Not all the way back, but a definite step back.
"So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income".
A minor correction but it wasn't one income. It was one and a half incomes. We lived on one quarter of our after tax income and saved the rest.
That was quite common at the time. We were, like all our friends, trying very hard to get to own our own home. We were also willing to live a great deal further out from the CDB than many people seem to be willing to do today and lots of people did not have a car.
I found it quite hilarious a couple of years ago to read about a 30 something woman who was complaining that she couldn't afford a first house. Her idea of a first house was 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in Roseneath, Mt Vic or Mt Cook. There was no way she was going out to the distant suburb of Hataitai. If you aren't a Wellingtonian look it up. It would be comparable to refusing to live way out in the wilds of Epsom I suppose.
So to do it today, that's still two people in the same household earning well above the median income.
You forgot to bring up coffee and avocado smash.
This article is in some ways quite good on looking separately at both sides of the housing market. Though I didn't really like Eastons alternative of demand backed by offshore financing, as this doesn't either fit the facts.
First the banking system doesn't lend out existing deposits but instead creates additional deposits when extending loans. Second the fact that a trade deficit was occuring simultaneously to an expansion in borrowing will mean an expansion in overseas ownership domestically, but a lot of the overseas trades are not in $NZ so in what sense is that supporting lending into a housing market almost exclusively trading in $NZ. This explanation is equally likely to misslead as the explanation it replaces.
The bank may create credit but they are still required to hold reserves and the size of those reserves determines how much credit they can create…..and a glut of international liquidity looking for a safe home and return knows which side their bread is buttered on.
Your talking about 'capital' not reserves there (especially in the context of overseas funding), and capital is still not a constraint on lending. It might place limits on the interest rates accessible in some cases.
But the simpler explanation is just that a lot of those recent house sellers at the time also took overseas trips.
Wrong …the amount of credit a bank can create is directly linked to their reserves and that capital can (and does) come from offshore…the interest rates are a consequence of the ability to service the level of debt (credit).
Still its, not a constraint on lending.
Of course it is…unless the bank wishes to breach its conditions of licence
The country didn't instigate a housing bubble based on money it borrowed overseas. That would be a very missleading claim, and I expect you would not claim it happened either. Yes, the implication is that the country can manufacture as much capital as it needs to facilitate lending for itself.
the glut of money sloshing around the world looks for a home and preferably a safe one with good access…..where better than backing the banks of open economies, ones with a political class wedded to the idea of free capital flows. The Banks use that increased reserve capacity to grow their loan books and thereby increase their profits, everybody wins,,,except for the poor mugs being milked for every available penny when they try and enter the housing market,
And the Gov is trapped because if they seriously try to do anything about housing affordability that capital in the banks reserves will find a new home …and probably not in NZ.
Capital outflow equals negative growth not to mention all the associated problems
I have no idea what this is going to achieve, but it's hard to fault the ambition. Pope Francis has just
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-council-for-inclusive-capitalism-with-the-vatican-a-new-alliance-of-global-business-leaders-launches-today-301187931.html
launched a partnership between the Vatican and some of the world’s largest companies, nonprofits and government agencies to reform capitalism.
The Council for Inclusive Capitalism with the Vatican is led by Guardians for Inclusive Capitalism, a group of officials representing such entities as the Bank of America, BP, Dupont, the Ford Foundation, Mastercard, Merck, the Rockefeller Foundation, Salesforce, Visa and the State of California.
Under the Pope’s guidance, these “guardians” aim to “reform capitalism into a powerful force for the good of humanity” and create a “more inclusive, sustainable and trusted form of capitalism.”
https://www.inclusivecapitalism.com/
Their mission is "to harness the private sector to create a more inclusive, sustainable and trusted economic system."
Just occasionally I wish Bruce Jesson and Christopher Hitchings were still alive to comment.
It's too weird for me to even try to comment yet.
Should have just called it FaustianPact.com
That's quite remarkable. From your second link:
What a lot of people here have missed is that many boardrooms across the US and EU have been quietly working toward all kinds of social and economic reforms. But because it's 'fucking capitalists' it never gets onto our radar.
It's a theme I'd have picked up on more – but every time I type the word 'capitalist' a kind of red mist descends. eg McF predictably above.
It's also not unreasonable to look at the Catholic Church's own historical approach to wealth management and go what the actual fuck.
Well history is tilting in ways never encountered before.
Basically we've tried three major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism – and of the three only the first has shown the necessary evolutionary capacity to adapt to the new world we're heading into.
It's all about the demographics. Young adults are consumers of goods and services, mid-aged adults are investors in capital and services, and retired adults are consumers of capital. At least in very broad terms.
For the first time in all of our history our populations are now quite rapidly becoming dominated by late adult to retired aged populations. Fully half of all Boomers will retire in 2022. Suddenly growth is no longer possible or even desirable. And none of the economic systems we've ever attempted have ever been exposed to this scenario – but I'd put my bet on capitalism being the one most likely to evolve to meet the challenge.
Could you perhaps explain the differences between these 'economic variants'? Particularly the economic differences between capitalism and fascism.
Thanks in advance.
The other day I found this amazing website …
Was Henry Ford fascist or capitalist? Or is it not an "or"?
He had a pretty good idea of the solution.https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/forget-electric-cars-henry-fords-cannabis-car-was-made-from-hemp-10xstronger-than-steel-100-green/1384733/ . I think he offered another way, one that may not have had us in our present situation.
I was asking you RL as you are perhaps the only person I've ever heard claim fascism is an economic system.
So please back up your statement with some facts or you're the one who needs that site you just found.
I see China are trying to join the TPP as is the UK. Does this mean that a large state actor like China or the UK could sue our government if we don't toe their line with regard to commercial companies. Given that a lot of chinese commercial investment seems to have some sort of state back up how exposed does this leave us?
I'm pretty confused but is it time that the existing TPP members rolled back a lot of the not actual trading and tariffs parts of the agreement so that the grouping is less attractive to major players. It all seems to reduce our ability both domestically and internationally? Should a trade agreement affect domestic politics that much?
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109042/big-japanese-quake-china-targets-nz-over-tpp-application-us-sentiment-waivers-canada
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-A-new-Anglo-Japanese-alliance-threatens-China-s-TPP-plans
Dorklander here. Oh the evils of a lockdown. No warning and the bottle store closes. Have to sundown on a 15 year Chivas Regal rather than my ho hum teachers
NZ hellhole.
For the radio listeners among us.
This link is a big bad rabbit hole to follow, so don't say you weren't warned.
Essentially every little green dot is a radio station. Have fun.
http://radio.garden/
lol, fair warning!
Thanks Sabine – amazing.
Watercare does Watercare, again.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/contractors-accidentally-pour-2000-tonnes-of-cement-like-grout-into-auckland-water-main/SURUDLSTLBJU7BDNL4XWMEY52U/