Open mike 28/01/2023

90 comments on “Open mike 28/01/2023 ”

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1. ianmac 1

   28 January 2023 at 8:15 am

   Josie Pagini wrote an anti Ardern piece in the New York Times which I found mean.

   But I found this rebuttal realistic.

   Re “The Star Who Didn’t Quite Deliver,” by Josie Pagani (Opinion guest essay, Jan. 25 NYT):

   This piece about Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand shows how easy it is to misjudge public leaders and misthink our role as citizens.

   We yearn for leaders who will be our saviors. So, when Ms. Ardern fails to rescue us from intractable problems like inequality, we think about her as “The Star Who Didn’t Quite Deliver,” as the headline put it.

   The real problem here, I believe, is our expectations. We should expect high levels of competence from our public leaders, not the ability to walk on water. And we should expect citizens to participate fully in public affairs, not expect to be saved.

   Jerome T. Murphy
   Cambridge, Mass.
   The writer is a retired Harvard professor and dean who taught courses on leadership.
   • AB 1.1

     28 January 2023 at 10:17 am

     Pagani is terminally stupid but endlessly and undeservedly platformed for no good reason.
     • Anne 1.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 10:36 am

       She knows the 'right' people and can be guaranteed to produce an anti-Labour perspective. Adding a young woman who had star status Madam Pagani had always craved for but never achieved, adds grist to the mill.

       Combine the above with a personal grudge against Labour for thwarting her political ambitions then you have a recipe for mischief making and a lot of 'the nasty' at every opportunity.
     • Bearded Git 1.1.2

       28 January 2023 at 11:57 pm

       There is a very good reason the MSM uses her AB. She is portrayed as "coming from the Left" which of course is bollocks, but in the eyes of the less well informed reader her criticism of Labour carries more weight.
2. Sanctuary 2

   28 January 2023 at 8:32 am

   "I don't hold a hose, mate" – Scott Morrison, 2019 bushfires.

   "My role isn't to rush out with buckets" – Wayne Brown, 2023 floods.
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.1

     28 January 2023 at 8:45 am

     Prime Minister Scott Morrison says his comments, 'I don't hold a hose, mate' during the bushfires wasn't helpful.

     https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/scott-morrison-acknowledges-saying-i-dont-hold-a/13886694

     Not helpful…no. And Mayoral new name? "No buckets" Brown ? : )
     • weka 2.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 9:00 am

       He had one bucket: Bucket head Brown.
       • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.1.1.1

         28 January 2023 at 9:06 am

         And there's a hole in that…dear Liza. : )
         • weka 2.1.1.1.1

           28 January 2023 at 10:04 am

           lol, more than one in Mr Brown's bucket.
   • Macro 2.2

     28 January 2023 at 9:16 am

     Quite right. His role is to sit in his office and twiddle his thumbs. Being the figurehead of the right faction and he just needs to let them get on with things like feathering their nests. The mayor doesn't actually have to go out and do things. Does he?!
   • tsmithfield 2.3

     28 January 2023 at 9:22 am

     To be fair to Brown, maybe he is saying that there are other ways he can be much more effective in his position as Mayor, and that getting out with buckets would simply distract from that.

     When we had the earthquakes in Christchurch, Bob Parker wasn't rushing around clearing debris. But he was seen as highly effective in other ways that certainly helped direct critical resources to the city etc.
     • Drowsy M. Kram 2.3.1

       28 January 2023 at 9:41 am

       Did Bob Parker feel the need to say that his role wasn’t to rush out and clear debris? Mayor Brown’s considered (?) utterance seems defensive to me. Par for the course?

       "My role isn't to rush out with buckets" – Wayne Brown, 2023 floods.

       To be fair to Brown, maybe he is saying that there are other ways he can be much more effective in his position as Mayor, and that getting out with buckets would simply distract from that.

       To be fair to Aucklanders, maybe the Mayor could simply have said that, or nothing.

       Is the jury still out on Mayor Brown 'effectiveness'? What a 'leader' – yeah, Right.
       • tsmithfield 2.3.1.1

         28 January 2023 at 9:48 am

         Maybe he thinks that the second part is so obviously true that it didn't need to be said.

         So long as he actually does what he is supposed to be doing and does it well is the key thing in this situation. If he is simply pulling a "Nero" then obviously he deserves all the condemnation that comes his way.

         Though, probably saying his role wasn’t to get out with buckets was a stupid thing to say. Because, it obviously isn’t. I don’t remember Parker ever saying his role wasn’t to clear rubble. He just got on with doing his part the best he could.

         I am not from Auckland, so have no interest in local politics there, other than, I hope Aucklanders get the sort of result from Brown in this situation that we got from Parker.
         • Peter 2.3.1.1.1

           28 January 2023 at 10:09 am

           Brown knows that every word is going to be interpreted and used however anyone wants. And twisted. That's how a crazed media and public acts.

           The focus is on Brown because it's in his region, in his domain. Which helps see Jacinda Ardern not being blamed or accused of something. Or everything.

           Woe betide her though if there's someone in Mt Albert with a puddle in their front yard and she's not there in Red Bands and carrying a bucket.

           And if she is there helping and there's a photo in the media the accusations of 'media hog' will come thick and fast.
           • weka 2.3.1.1.1.1

             28 January 2023 at 10:20 am

             the discussion I'm seeing about Brown on twitter is relatively restrained all things considered.
         • Tony Veitch 2.3.1.1.2

           28 January 2023 at 11:15 am

           The earthquake saved Parker, a very mediocre mayor, from Jim Anderton, who was streets ahead in opinion poles immediately before the quake.

           Having said that, Parker certainly rose to the occasion.
           • Tony Veitch 2.3.1.1.2.1

             28 January 2023 at 12:53 pm

             whoops – polls
         • Drowsy M. Kram 2.3.1.1.3

           28 January 2023 at 1:33 pm

           "My role isn't to rush out with buckets" – Mayor Brown, 2023 floods.

           "Maybe". I thought that particular comment was tactless and thoughtless.

           If, however, thought went into it, then that would be food for thought, imho.
         • Bearded Git 2.3.1.1.4

           29 January 2023 at 12:02 am

           You really give yourself away when you try to defend Brown tsmith. Even the Right must see that he is a hopeless case.
     • weka 2.3.2

       28 January 2023 at 10:07 am

       When we had the earthquakes in Christchurch, Bob Parker wasn't rushing around clearing debris. But he was seen as highly effective in other ways that certainly helped direct critical resources to the city etc.

       Maybe you didn't see what happened yesterday? The reason Brown is being severely criticised and thus defending himseld is because he was fucking useless and there were hours where he was mia and civil defence didn't get up and running in time because of that.

       I'll drop some links, because NZ twitter were all over it.
       • weka 2.3.2.1

         28 January 2023 at 10:08 am

         click through for the thread.

         https://twitter.com/publicaddress/status/1619059068903247873
       • weka 2.3.2.2

         28 January 2023 at 10:10 am

         pay attention to the time stamps on these

         https://twitter.com/AnneleiseHall/status/1618886347506483201
       • weka 2.3.2.3

         28 January 2023 at 10:10 am

         https://twitter.com/michaelwoodnz/status/1618881991784693761
       • weka 2.3.2.4

         28 January 2023 at 10:11 am

         https://twitter.com/eph__em__era/status/1618894914322055172
         • weka 2.3.2.4.1

           28 January 2023 at 10:11 am

           https://twitter.com/eph__em__era/status/1618912178593234947
       • weka 2.3.2.5

         28 January 2023 at 10:12 am

         https://twitter.com/dahmenaaron/status/1618899703860723712
       • tsmithfield 2.3.2.6

         28 January 2023 at 10:13 am

         Then I would agree. The job of a Mayor is to be on top of that sort of thing and make sure everything is happening that needs to happen. That there is urgent communication with key government agencies etc, and to be visible so that people know that the situation is being taken seriously and can have some confidence.

         TBH, from here, the situation looked like a bit of a cluster-fuck, just from what we were seeing about the train network being shut down just before the Elton John concert. Though it didn't take much of a genius to realise, even from here, that the concert wasn't going ahead in that weather.

         That looked like another cluster because, from what I saw on the news, people were turning up for the concert. It should have been cancelled much earlier.
         • weka 2.3.2.6.1

           28 January 2023 at 10:19 am

           I think there was way more rain than forecasted, but would like to see that confirmed. But yeah, the concert was cancelled long after it became dangerous and then people were trying to get *home from the concert through flood waters.

           It's still not clear to me exactly what the sequence is for declaring a SOE, eg some were saying last night that the Mayor has to do it and he just didn't. Lots of competent and experienced people were commenting on this in real time last night including Auckland councillors and MPs. Even Luxon tweeted telling Brown to declare.

           After the flooding, I'd like a conversation about under what conditions a Mayor can be removed from office. This is a serious, extreme weather even the likes of which Auckland hasn't seen, two people have died, many people are without power and water or have been evacuated. The emergency services are overloaded. And Ak has a incompetent Mayor that apparently doesn't know what to do.
           • Descendant Of Smith 2.3.2.6.1.1

             28 January 2023 at 10:37 am

             Local civil defence emergencies are generally declared by mayors or an elected CDEM representative. Ministers may step in if they feel the need but wouldn't normally need to do so.

             Local emergency The declaration of a local emergency can be done in two ways. First, every CDEM Group must appoint at least one member to have the power to declare a state of emergency for all or part of the Group’s area. Second, mayors have the right to declare a state of local emergency in their own district or a ward within that district. When a local emergency is declared, the Group Controller will coordinate the response. He or she may have any number of local controllers who also work to coordinate the response, but at all times they are subject to the direction of the Group Controller.

             https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/publications/Declarations/Factsheet-declaring-states-of-local-emergency.pdf.
         • Molly 2.3.2.6.2

           28 January 2023 at 12:00 pm

           I would have expected the official advisors make the call, and the mayor then acts on that advice. Does anyone know if there was an inexucusable delay between advice being received and acted on?

           For context:

           Previous State of Emergency Declarations in Auckland:

           https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/resources/previous-emergencies/declared-states-of-emergency/

           Use Google time search to come up with previous Auckland flooding events and responses.

           One such, with a higher rainfall (one hour):

           New Zealand – Evacuations After 90mm of Rain in 1 Hour Causes Floods in Auckland

           "Fifty to sixty homes were evacuated in West Auckland after flooding struck during the night 30 to 31 August 2021.

           Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said people largely self evacuated and were staying with friends and family. Evacuation centres were also set up. Auckland Emergency Management said any need to evacuate overrides the COVID-19 lockdown rules.

           As much as 90 mm of rain fell in 1 hour. However, Mayor Goff said the flooding was largely unexpected. “We knew it was going to rain… but there was no early indication that this was likely to cause the level of flooding it has.”

           As of 31 August, flooding had affected communities in Kumeu, Huapai, Ranui, Piha and Henderson Valley. Around 12 roads were closed in the area as a result of flooding and landslides. Around 13 people were rescued from flood waters by emergency services who received 150 calls for help. The mayor said fire, police and emergency management services were all coping well and there was no need to declare a state of emergency.

           A total of 208.2 mm of rain fell in Kumeū in 24 hours to 31 August, which is the town’s second wettest day since records began in 1943 and 149% of the August monthly normal rainfall."
           • weka 2.3.2.6.2.1

             28 January 2023 at 2:31 pm

             I haven't seen a decent timeline yet. The gist from twitter last night was that the Mayor was absent. That was certainly true, and he did blame CD for the delay. I don't think we will know until someone pieces it all together. But odds on it's more like he was absent, his office wasn't doing what was expected, CD got on with what they could do and soon became overwhelmed because the event got much bigger fast, the Mayor was still being useless, and none of it got sorted out until sufficient pressure was on from councillors, MPs, media and SM. That's how I saw it play out in real time on twitter, but it will be a partial view.

             some more context, re the extraordinary nature of the event (and it was fast).

             https://twitter.com/marcdaalder/status/1619052447976292353
             • Shanreagh …

               28 January 2023 at 8:49 pm

               It is not just about the timing of the Emergency Declaration. People were expecting communication from the Mayor, reassurance, updates, advice, things like to to contact, links to CD sites etc etc. Brown has one idiot quote about getting the rain to stop then silence.

               I was on Twitter last night and about 4 councillors (inc Richard Hills, Jo Bartley and Julie Fairey) stepped up to fill the void, Efeso Collins retweeted every piece of official/Cnclrs info he could find, while several Lab MPs did the same. We had folk like Huhana Hickey, well known disability advocate who seemed to have been up all night trying to get support for things like NZ Sign Language being included in all the messaging. Later on the bunker under the Beehive opened and we had a 2.00am ? press conference from Hipkins and McAnulty.

               Meanwhile not a peep out of Brown. No-one was asking for him the wield a bucket, just show that he was present.

               Then his disaster of a press conference…… before that his stint on Kim Hill.

               Even if he did not automatically think to do these things he has several enormously paid advisers in his personal office who surely should have advised him.

               While we have been spoilt having at ease and empathetic communicators, others can do their jobs of spreading reassurance by actually having notes (Hipkins appeared to have some notes at the Akld presser). Ill at ease folk should steer clear of phones and other things with tiny screens.

               I forced myself to watch him several times though right from the start of the campaign he has sent shivers up my spine, of something, intuition?
       • weka 2.3.2.7

         28 January 2023 at 10:13 am

         https://twitter.com/janedtrades/status/1619066288680337408
         • weka 2.3.2.7.1

           28 January 2023 at 10:13 am

           that one probably needs some fact checking.
   • Roy cartland 2.4

     28 January 2023 at 10:03 am

     "It's not my job to talk people outta killin' 'emselves."

     – Chief Wiggum
   • Sabine 2.5

     28 January 2023 at 10:35 am

     It is true on the account of both.

     They should however be the ones to supply hoses and buckets to the emergency services so that they can do their jobs.

     Like calling in the the vollies from Ngaruawahia because they have a jet ski to Auckland.

     These floods are not 'new'. Auckland in 2016 had some pretty bad flooding. Edgecumbe a few years ago, Rotorua a few years ago. And a few in the South Island last year and hte year beofre. All it shows that we are still not prepared as people – where are the fixed Evac Centres that people know about? Oh check hte emergency web page that will list them when the emergency is underway? Hope you are charged and have electricity…..! That our emergency services are still understaffed, under equipped, and mostly run by volunteers who hope to god that someone will come and save their own missus/partners/kids/dogncats…….

     These floods show that we don't still and certainly have not in the last 20 odds years given a thought to the changing climate and build anything for it or with it in mind. But then that is not hte fault of the unlikable bloke that got elected 12 weeks ago to Mayor of Auckland. After the city was run by an Ex labour MP and lefty called Phil Goeff.

     Ask yourself, is you town better equipped to deal with 75% of summer rain in less then 12 hours?
   • AB 2.6

     28 January 2023 at 10:38 am

     Brown was managed into office by Hooton and Auckland business interests to sell assets, put a stop to growth in public transport infrastructure, prevent densification of affluent suburbs, ignore the implications of climate change, loosen regulations that hinder profit extraction, encourage property development opportunities through sprawl, avoid uppity brown people having any influence, and return us to the 1950s nirvana of easy capital accumulation by the 'right' sort of people.
     • Sabine 2.6.1

       28 January 2023 at 10:57 am

       Or you could argue that Efeso Collins did not have the support of the professional left from Labour and the Greens of Auckland/Government in order to secure a victory and that includes the much vaunted juggernaut that is Labour in South Auckland. And by support i mean money, door knockers, etc.
       • tWiggle 2.6.1.1

         28 January 2023 at 1:26 pm

         And you could argue…
       • Ad 2.6.1.2

         28 January 2023 at 5:37 pm

         He did.

         Efeso was outspent and outmuscled in the last four weeks when it matters.
     • Bearded Git 2.6.2

       29 January 2023 at 12:07 am

       AB…..Perfectly summed up re Brown.
3. Mac1 3

   28 January 2023 at 9:18 am

   "And we should expect citizens to participate fully in public affairs, not expect to be saved." Thanks, ianmac at #1.

   That's a quote that should motivate us all to get into politics, the whole nine yards of the fabric of political life- voting, campaigns, committees, door-knocking, meetings, pamphleting, putting up hoardings, phone calling, fund-raising, asking questions of candidates, being a candidate, donating, letter writing, even commenting on blogs….

   Even if we expect to be saved, who's going to do that? If anybody, it's us, being politically active and astute.
4. joe90 4

   28 January 2023 at 10:37 am

   ISIS with oil fits.

   https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1619011239308566529
   • Sabine 4.1

     28 January 2023 at 10:58 am

     What do you call Saudi Arabia then? A good friend and ally. But equally deadly to people the regime don't like.
     • Francesca 4.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 11:56 am

       And before anyone cries "Whataboutism!", that old chestnut is a synonym for rank hypocrisy and moral expediency
5. Cricklewood 5

   28 January 2023 at 11:02 am

   Pretty massive consequences from the floods for Auckland. 100s of houses are now effectively unlivivable in the interem some for considerable periods which will put massive strain on the rental market.

   Seeing houses around Mt Eden that have had water through them well over 1m deep some are still sitting in it. Entire first floor in some spots. Hate to think how bad it is in lower lying areas.

   Heaps of dead cars as well.
6. weka 6

   28 January 2023 at 11:57 am

   Re Auckland Airport problems in the past day. We're at the point where flying (short and long haul) just shouldn't be happening on scale. If we want to drop GHGs fast, we have to change everything and that includes flying. Keep flying for essential purposes. It's daft to try and fix emergency response systems for airline flights without doing the bigger picture work as well.

   Anyone wanting to argue that flights are a tiny part of GHG's needs to look at the emissions from the whole trip not just what the plane puts out, and understand that commercial flight economics are based on expansion. That means more planes, more airports, more infrastructure, more GHGs. That's why airports are targeted by climate activists.
   • fender 6.1

     28 January 2023 at 1:54 pm

     What you say makes perfect sense of course, and maybe many affected by this most recent event caused by a warming planet will be more receptive to the major changes that need to happen. But can you imagine the wailing from the cashed-up selfish who see it as their right to roam the planet on their never-ending tours.

     I can imagine a future where everyone is allocated a cap on their allowable air travel but some would determine any kind of restriction to be a North Korean type restraint to their freedom.
     • weka 6.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 2:25 pm

       I don't know what the solution is there. Some of it is education, too many people now saying flights don't make any difference. That's the same old reductionist rather than systems thinking, so I guess chipping away at that.

       I was a kid when we had carless days, so the concept seems reasonable to me. But the trick would be placing it in within larger system change that brings personal benefits. You don't have to fly to that meeting (zoom), and here's a space few hours off work instead.
       • Herodotus 6.1.1.1

         28 January 2023 at 2:52 pm

         In this time, why then do we have governments so determined to have tourism return to a BAS situation, over the last few years was a great opportunity to transition away from tourism and yet efforts are to promote all tourist destinations world wide ??? Is that not a trip to failure ☹️
         • weka 6.1.1.1.1

           28 January 2023 at 3:13 pm

           massive lost opportunity.

           I think it's a mix of the same kind of cognitive dissonance that many people have (politicians and government staff being like the rest of us), and a lack of skill in firstly imagining how it could be different and then implementing it. When I look at the tourism responses in Otago across the pandemic I see the wrong people in positions of power. There are people who know how to transition society, but they're not being given the power to do it.
       • Cricklewood 6.1.1.2

         28 January 2023 at 4:02 pm

         The solution I quite like is a progressive levy on international flights. Basically first trip 0 something like 20 percent of ticket for second, 40 percent for third trip and so forth could be much more aggressive with it.

         Easy to track with electronic passports.
         • Belladonna 6.1.1.2.1

           28 January 2023 at 4:57 pm

           And, the levy must be paid by the individual – not the company (or the government). Perhaps putting them into a higher tax bracket might work (amazing how having to pay an extra 5% income tax affects people's decision-making)

           Otherwise all of the costs will simply be absorbed by the company (just as the currently increased airfares haven't really stopped business flying).

           A really serious climate change surcharge ($500+) imposed on every overseas ticket to NZ – would both reduce demand, and increase the funds available for climate change mitigation. [NB: percentage of ticket doesn't work, as overseas travellers will simply travel to Oz, then take a ticket to NZ]

           And, of course, politicians and public servants must not be exempt – some leading-by-example, wouldn't go amiss.

           This means, that air-travel is likely to become the preserve of the very wealthy. From a 'fairness' perspective, how does that sit with you?
           • Bearded Git 6.1.1.2.1.1

             29 January 2023 at 12:13 am

             The proceeds of the levee should be ring- fenced for public transport and other unequivocally green uses.
7. aj 7

   28 January 2023 at 1:14 pm

   The RAND Corporation is an American policy think tank created in 1948 by Douglas Aircraft Company to offer 'research and analysis to the United States Armed Forces', it's financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations, universities and private individuals.

   In 2019 it published a report on "Extending Russia" and a number of its recommendations subsequently came to pass.

   https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html

   Earlier this month they released another report "Avoiding a Long War", this highlights what may be required to do this and includes 'clarifying plans for future support to Ukraine, making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia.

   For some of us here this is hopefully a step in the right direction towards preventing any further escalation. The pessimist in me says the neocons and warhawks will ignore it.

   https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
   • joe90 7.1

     28 January 2023 at 1:29 pm

     The pessimist in me says the neocons and warhawks will ignore it.

     Or Poots trumps the neocons and warhawks by withdrawing the rapists, murderers, and washing machine thieves.

     /
     • aj 7.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 4:40 pm

       Shoulda gone to Specsavers
       • Joe90 7.1.1.1

         28 January 2023 at 5:36 pm

         You'd still be an apologist for Russian fascism.
8. Maurice 8

   28 January 2023 at 1:36 pm

   Some of the water blasted into the sky by the Tongan volcano coming back down?

   Up to 4 million tonnes by some estimates!

   [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
   
   • weka 8.1

     28 January 2023 at 2:27 pm

     please provide some back up for your claim. Back up means,

     1. an explanation
     2. a short quote backing that up
     3. a link to the quote

     None of those on their own will be sufficient.
     • Maurice 8.1.1

       28 January 2023 at 4:29 pm

       The link I had would not cut and paste but it looks like that was an underestimate.

       Have found some more info and it looks like the HUGE amount of water will be around for a while. What goes up comes down?

       https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100248

       “The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022, injected up to 150 Tg of water into the stratosphere. A month after eruption, a distinct aerosol and water vapor layer formed in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. The water vapor layer is slightly displaced above the aerosol layer at 26 km. These two layers continued to persist in the tropical SH stratosphere until the end of June while slowly moving apart in altitude.”

       https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc

       “The excess H2O could arrive in northern and southern midlatitudes in ∼18 and ∼24 months, respectively, over a broad domain in the upper stratosphere. Since part of the plume has entered the lower branch of the BDC, the elevated H2O may reach lower stratospheric midlatitudes within a few months. The timescale for complete dissipation of the plume may be 5–10 years”
   • Drowsy M. Kram 8.2

     28 January 2023 at 3:36 pm

     Up to 4 million tonnes by some estimates!

     That's an underestimate.

     SKY WATER
     Scientists are also now taking stock of the eruption's impact on the atmosphere. While volcanic eruptions on land eject mostly ash and sulfur dioxide, underwater volcanoes jettison far more water.

     Tonga's eruption was no different, with the blast's white-grayish plume reaching 57 kilometers (35.4 miles) and injecting 146 million tonnes of water into the atmosphere.

     One year on from massive eruption in South Pacific, the atmosphere is still feeling the effects [25 January 2023]
     ‘This one was a warming volcanic eruption – I’ve never seen something like this, there’s nothing in the literature about that,’ says Sellitto. ‘All eruptions produce some transient cooling of the climate system. This one was warming the climate system.’

     Don't know whether that increase in stratospheric water has contributed significantly to the recent extreme rainfall in Auckland (seems very unlikely), but some are predicting a transitory increase in the Antarctic ozone hole.

     Hunga Tonga undersea volcano eruption likely to make ozone hole larger in coming years [January 2023]
     Although the Antarctic ozone hole of 2023 may join its three large and long-lasting predecessors, perhaps with the help of the water vapor from Hunga Tonga, scientists are confident that in the longer term, we will see the ozone hole shrinking.
     • Cricklewood 8.2.1

       28 January 2023 at 4:07 pm

       All the additional water vapor in the atmosphere will certainly be have an effect on the intensity of the storm systems.

       It's also thought it will drive significant global warming for a temporary period.

       https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/#:~:text=The%20eruption%20of%20Tonga's%20underwater,warming%20threshold%2C%20new%20research%20finds.

       It's sort of suprising not much has been said in msm about the downstream effects of that eruption which look to be significant.
   • Macro 8.3

     28 January 2023 at 4:11 pm

     A more sensible explanation is not hard to find.

     Simply put, precipitation amounts are increasing as temperatures rise because warm air holds more water vapor: a 1°F rise in temperature equals as much as a 4% increase in atmospheric water vapor. Other factors can contribute to rainfall, including El Nino and La Nina

     my bold

     https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/warming-earth-also-wetter-earth
     • Maurice 8.3.1

       29 January 2023 at 5:52 am

       From the link in the comment above it is expected that the Tongan eruption will raise air temperatures – Tongan volcano eruption raises imminent risk of 1.5C breach

       So probably some effect? Certainly coupled with el nino/la nina ….
       • Macro 8.3.1.1

         29 January 2023 at 2:44 pm

         Of course increasing the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere will amplify global warming.

         Water vapor is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas. It’s responsible for about half of Earth’s Greenhouse Effect.

         my bold
         • Maurice 8.3.1.1.1

           29 January 2023 at 2:48 pm

           Thought that cows belching and farting was the worst … though 150 million tonnes of water vapour might have significantly more effect!
           • Macro 8.3.1.1.1.1

             29 January 2023 at 4:15 pm

             Each greenhouse gas has a different forcing

             A forcing is the technical term for any influence that can shift the climate. Greenhouse forcings occur due to changes in the level of gasses that share two properties: they are transparent to visible light, but absorb the infrared, which we typically perceive as heat….

             Although the atmosphere allows most of the visible light through, many of the gasses there—water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.—absorb infrared radiation, converting it to rotational and vibrational energy. This raises the energy content of the atmosphere and thus the average temperature. The more greenhouse gasses present, the greater the chances of the infrared light being absorbed before it escapes into space. Thus, if all other influences are kept constant, increased levels of greenhouse gasses will necessarily produce increased atmospheric temperatures. …

             The impact of greenhouse gasses differs based on their chemistry. Methane is much more potent than CO2, for example, because it absorbs more IR radiation. A gas' impact is also influenced by its lifetime in the atmosphere. Water vapor falls back out quickly as precipitation, and methane is typically oxidized to carbon dioxide within decades.

             Increasing levels of methane from cows belching is still a significant problem for although it breaks down within decades – it breaks down to carbon dioxide – which has a half life of about 120 years in the atmosphere.
9. AB 9

   28 January 2023 at 2:30 pm

   People dead in Auckland including being drowned in Wairau Rd, a vile, ugly stroad with a canalised stream in a concrete channel alongside. Many more are going to die equally horribly in future, and many times more will be left destitute as the insurance industry walks away and/or hikes premiums to unsustainable levels. Even wringing the neck of every CC denier won't help now, as so much future change is baked in.
   • Belladonna 9.1

     28 January 2023 at 4:44 pm

     Perhaps we should wait and see whether the deaths are actually attributable to the road design of Wairau – or to other causes.
     At least one report that a death was due to kayaking in the culvert…

     https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/01/28/second-person-found-dead-amid-auckland-floods-two-people-missing/

     I agree that insurers are going to be looking increasingly closely at storm-water/flood-risk factors in Auckland (as they have been in Earthquake risk-factors in Wellington).
     And, that it's possible (or even probably) that some properties in flood plains and/or the bottom of gulleys, may become uninsurable (or at least uninsurable for storm/flood damage).

     The same is going to be true for properties/communities at sea level – across NZ.

     Managed retreat – at least in Auckland – is simply not a viable short- or even medium-term solution. The city is too big, and lack of housing is already at crisis levels. (Long-term, of course, the climate will make the choice for us).

     The government, quite frankly, cannot afford to pick up insurance costs for the whole of NZ. Not can it fund managed retreat for large numbers.
     And, quite frankly. It's hard to see why the taxpayer should fund managed retreat (AKA a free house and land) for a multi-millionaire living on the Takapuna beachfront, or along the East Coast Bays clifftops, or in St Heliers.
   • Visubversa 9.2

     28 January 2023 at 5:21 pm

     That Wairau Creek is a very dangerous area. When it floods through there, the volume and velocity of the water is extreme. When I worked for Council I turned down applications for sub-divison and development on sites bordering the river because the Development Engineers were saying that safe egress from the proposed sites could not be provided for in times of flooding events. For established, but undeveloped sites, there were requirements for "bridges" to be provided from the new dwellings to the driveways, or some other place on the site where you could get away in the case of a flood.
10. joe90 10

    28 January 2023 at 7:12 pm

    Southerly gusting to 40kts, 1 metre S swell with >2M chop.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/1619194632310763520
    • SPC 10.1

      28 January 2023 at 7:18 pm

      Rusty (new nickname) Hipkins is not required back in Wellington to pilot a tugboat or fly a helicopter to rescue passengers, they've re-powered the engines.
      • joe90 10.1.1

        28 January 2023 at 7:24 pm

        Pilot and police alongside, too.

        https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9107942
11. SPC 11

    28 January 2023 at 7:42 pm

    Millions of people suffer from long COVID—but why?

    New data may help solve this mystery. Using a specialized lab technique, researchers are now testing patients with long COVID for microclots in their blood.

    “We’re very early,” says David Putrino, a rehabilitation and long COVID scientist. But out of the few dozen samples they’ve tested, 100 percent had microclots.

    Long COVID microclots are more difficult for the body to disintegrate. Although they can’t block arteries or veins, microclots can block the supply of oxygen to organs and tissue

    

    (above, microclots in healthy blood, left, and a severe microclot in a long COVID patient, right).

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/microclots-pots-long-covid-treatment-diagnosis?
12. joe90 12

    28 January 2023 at 7:53 pm

    Alternative link.

    https://archive.li/fJuZT
13. tWiggle 13

    28 January 2023 at 8:15 pm

    Visited that RAND site to check out its political bias. Quite a broad range of articles on social issues in the US, interestingly.

    I wrote a while ago about my feeling that the anti-vax protest movement was probably pushed by bad actors, possibly state, spreading muck to destabilise countries. My eye-opening moment: an immediate pivot I saw on multiple kiwi anti-vax sites, to a pro-Russia view of the Ukraine invasion in late Feb, during the thick of the Parliament 2022 protest.

    The Trumpian Steve Bannon media empire has strong links to Counterspin, of course. Who pays Bannon, though? RAND have a paper analysing generators of anti-vax, anti-pandemic measure memes. It identifies both Russian and Chinese origins for malicious disinformation.

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA112-21.html

    We have to acknowledge a lot of anti-Ardern, anti-government hate is hustled along by bots until it builds up local momentum. Be interesting to see if a NACT government attracts state actor disruption, too.

    And this is also why I believe some of the anti-mandate stuff was inflamed by outside actors who benefit from a divided country.

    It's not a conspiracy if it's true…
    • Shanreagh 13.1

      28 January 2023 at 9:00 pm

      And this is also why I believe some of the anti-mandate stuff was inflamed by outside actors who benefit from a divided country.

      Or perhaps not even a divided country but one where a Right wing government can exist.

      Good post.
    • Graeme 13.2

      28 January 2023 at 9:49 pm

      Microsoft put out a report of their experiences of cyber activity in the early stages of the Ukraine war

      https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE50KOK

      It's a bit of a chew but Aotearoa, and the 2022 Parliament protest gets a mention on P18

      What an updated version covering the last 12 months would reveal, I shudder to think.
14. weka 14

    28 January 2023 at 8:53 pm

    righteous.

    https://twitter.com/victoriapeckham/status/1619036748067254272
    • Visubversa 14.1

      28 January 2023 at 9:29 pm

      The insanity is everywhere.

      Self hate surgery porn – Burberry marketeers determined to trash what value is left in the brand.

      I don’t think adverts should be normalising – in fact glamourising – girls having healthy breasts removed,

      
    • Francesca 14.2

      28 January 2023 at 9:53 pm

      From the Spectator , a conservative paper, but I can't really fault this piece

      https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-a-transphobe/?
    • weka 14.3

      28 January 2023 at 10:43 pm

      JKR goes from strength to strength. Every day, there are multiple examples of this.

      https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1618212057496817670
      • SPC 14.3.1

        28 January 2023 at 11:32 pm

        She has regular on-line communication with the Labour MP for Canterbury (Kent) Rosie Duffield.

        https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/30/canterbury-mp-rosie-duffield-considering-quitting-labour
15. Anne 15

    28 January 2023 at 9:08 pm

    Good God!! So that bimbo is the Deputy Mayor.

    Btw, I’m an Aucklander and am ashamed of the c-grade team at the top. She’s the ex-National Party president Goodfellow’s wife then. Says it all!

    [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
    
    • Herodotus 15.1

      28 January 2023 at 9:51 pm

      You are a real piece of work – Hope you are proud of yourself ?? – After we have had commentary regarding language that was directed to the PM and other female politicians and the and here we have you using "bottle-blonde bombshell" and "bimbo ". Bimbo -an attractive but empty-headed young woman, especially one perceived as a willing sex object.

      https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bimbo
      • Anne 15.1.1

        28 January 2023 at 10:08 pm

        "…especially one perceived as a willing sex object.'

        That's a new one on me. Well, if the shoe fits…

        Or do you just have a dirty mind?

        [please stop with the sexism and slurs – weka]
        • weka 15.1.1.1

          28 January 2023 at 10:40 pm

          mod note.
    • tWiggle 15.2

      29 January 2023 at 12:42 am

      Deputy Major Simpson may be a dyed in the wool Nat, but she has 15 years on council, with 2 terms as chair of finance under Goff. So guess she's pretty damn competent and can work well with others. Try a little research before tearing strips off 'bimbos'.

      https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300722799/who-is-desley-simpson-meet-auckland-mayor-wayne-browns-secondincommand
16. weka 16

    29 January 2023 at 12:27 am

    British GCFs going hard re the self ID rapist 😈

    https://twitter.com/suzanne_moore/status/1618701719764090880

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