Our Friends in the North
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- Date published:
6:31 pm, August 6th, 2014 - 225 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, election 2014, greens, hone harawira, internet mana party, internet party, Kelvin Davis, labour, mana-party, nz first, polls, winston peters -
Tags: annette sykes, laila harre, te reo putake, Te Tai Tokerau
Our Friends in the North
It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. There are significant implications for the wider election campaign as well.
First Annette Sykes from Mana made an unsubstantiated and absurd claim that Labour have done a secret deal to see Hone Harawira elected in the seat. David Cunliffe denied it and went further saying he didn’t really see Mana/Internet being part of a Government he led. Labour candidate Kelvin Davis has shown he wants to win the seat very badly indeed and only the wise counsel of the NZLP leadership prevented his LEC chair injecting what I believe rugby players call ‘mongrel’ into the campaign.
Vote Positive, Kelvin, Vote Positive!
Yesterday, Hone Harawira put out a media release that contained blatant lies and unintentionally made Sykes look like a fool, too. Hone claimed that Labour had done a deal with National, not only to stitch up the seat for Davis, but asking for funding from the Tories too. Never mind the bollocks, people.
David Cunliffe has firmed on his position. Absolutely no place for Mana/IP around the cabinet table now. Clearly, the next Government is going to be Labour + Greens + NZF. Mana/IP, if they have any MP’s post election, can still offer Confidence and Supply, and may get some policy wins as a result, but they won’t be in the tent this time around.
Why is this? How have Mana/Internet gone from possible kingmakers to also rans?
Three reasons: Trust, Ideology and Maths.
Trust: Middle NZ, the folk who decide the outcomes of general elections, don’t like Mana. They seem to have gone off Kim Dotcom, too. Possibly because of overexposure. Labour have reasons not to trust mana. Prior to the formation of the Internet/Mana voting arrangement, Hone was saying his preference was to not enter Government, but to sit on the crossbenches, voting issue by issue. That’s obviously a difficult prospect to manage for a minority or small majority Government. Does Labour really want to risk Hone walking away, as he did to the Maori Party when things didn’t go his way?
Ideology: Mana (and the Internet Party under Laila Harre’s leadership) have no bargaining power. They can only achieve their stated aim of bringing down the National led Government by supporting a Labour led alternative. Like ACT, they are playing poker with their cards facing up. Labour can count; kicking Hone to touch will win votes from the middle ground, while costing them nothing in support inside Parliament, where Mana/IP will not actually vote against a progressive Government. At worst, they could abstain, but only if that doesn’t see Key cling on.
Maths: The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour/Greens/NZF combined nudging the bare minimum numbers needed to form the next Government. That is whether or not Mana/IP win a seat (and the associated coat-tail MPs) and assuming ACT, the Maori Party and UF do win at least one electorate seat each. Any further slippage at all from the National Party to any of Labour, Greens or Winston makes a change of Government a dead set certainty. And, yes, I’m of the opinion that NZF will want in on this deal. Winston’s a vicious bugger with a long memory. He’s looking forward to being Brutus to Key’s Caesar.
The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.
Te Reo Putake
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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So it looks like Labour will continue to misread the new MMP political environment, will continue to second guess the decision voters make on Sept 20, and will continue to quietly bleed votes to the extent that getting 30% in one poll is now seen as a ‘solid comeback’.
Fact is Cunliffe has been manipulated by the ABC faction and Winston Peters to work to take the MP and Internet/Mana out of parliament. Election success for Labour is now dependent on Greens and NZF alone helping them to over 50% of the seats in parliament.
This means all hitting their basic 30/15/5% targets.
The reason why Winston Peters has not vetoed a Labour-Green coalition being backed by NZ First (as per 2005) is because his priority is to exclude any party from out of the Maori seats.
Traditionally he has tried to guarantee to voters that a vote for him and his party keeps Greens out of government coalition – but in 2014 its excluding the Maori parties so centrists will vote NZF.
NZ First with 5% has 7-8 seats – The MP 2 seats, IM c4 seats at best cannot quite match the seats offered by NZ First and given Labour requires NZ First to deny its seats to a National coalition to National as well the decision was quite simple to answer in the end.
The post election problem for Labour is what constraints on Green policy would NZF want for any coalition deal. Enough to reduce Greens to a confidence and supply arrangement backing a Labour -NZF coalition?
One could anticipate National would have to exclude United and ACT to form any coalition with NZ First (as this alone would have a majority of seats in parliament).
In 1996 NZF kept a last term government in power and suffered for this in 1999. He could still do the same as he would be retiring in 2017.
Labour agreeing to buy back power companies might give it an advantage.
Apart from your first two paragraphs, your logic has merit and most probably correct, though there IS no absolute guarantee that greens will not gazump all that by simply going into a coalition with National or giving a National government confidence and supply for some limited policy concessions. Greens have NOT ruled that out, as far as I know, have they?
Oh, please. The Greens would never go into an alliance with National. Even a minimal memorandum of understanding was a step too far for the Greens in the present term.
Their policies and values are too far apart.
I take that as your best guess.
Won’t happen.
Well your best guess looks pretty wide of the mark to me.
The Green membership also have a say in any deals. The base and the party policies and values just do not have any agreement with National policies and practices.
The Greens are a left party. Look at their policies, values and track record. But it still doesn’t stop some trying to smear them as being as much right as left.
The Greens will either do a deal with Labour, or sit on the cross benches.
there was a time that the greens flirted with the idea of supporting a key-govt..
..hopefully that rush of blood to the head has now passed..
Really? When? Citations needed.
during keys’ first term..
..you forget i have been doing commentaries on q-time for a very very long time..
..and this is history..karol..
..if you are the in the greens..you will know there were vigorous internal debates on just that issue/possibility..
..at one stage in parliament..
..they were nearly french-kissing in the debating chamber..
..there was much lifting of skirts/batting of eyelids going on..
..on both sides..
..it was actually quite puke-inducing to watch..
doubt it. It was part of the GP repositioning itself in the mainstream. The stance was that if there could be common ground on policy then the GP would look at supporting a National govt. But of course there would never be any such common ground, so it wasn’t like it was a real possibility.
It was also about positioning the GP as the reasonable ones. Which worked. They said, look if you can share some of our policies, then we can work with you. Very inclusive. Now they can say that National were unable or unwilling to work on such policies, esp environmental ones. Bet that picked them up some votes.
thats my take on it too weka
“The Greens will either do a deal with Labour, or sit on the cross benches.”
I haven’t seen any such public statement from the Green party’s two leaders.
Norman said something like there is no policy common ground so it’s extremely unlikely that we would support a National govt. Basically he’s saying the GP will negotiate on policy rather than ideology.
See also this comment I just made http://thestandard.org.nz/our-friends-in-the-north/#comment-861821
Like Paul I don’t believe it would ever happen. It would be the death of the party, so many members would leave.
No different from what the Maori Party did with the RW National then!
Also, “extremely unlikely” does NOT mean it will NOT happen!
It’s never gonna happen Clem-the Greens hate the policies of this Nats government with a vengeance. Green voters would become extremely disillusioned if the Geens did ANY deal with this shower.
wow..!..just wow..!
..what cynicism..
..and this mad fucken desire to bet the house on maori-basher/xenophobe/cd-well-go-with-key peters..?
..what makes you think you can trust him..?
I really hate it when dickheads deracinate Winston.
Why not? He HAS BEEN in a coalition with Labour before after all and performed splendidly. Have you forgotten?
how do you know he won’t go with national..?
..and he was a ‘splendid’ partner in a full-blown neo-lib labour govt..
..gee..!..both those inspire confidence…
..and hope for a better future..eh..?
” full-blown neo-lib labour govt” ??
Really? What are you smoking now man?
It is two bit lying attitude like that that makes one weary of Mana and its extremist supporters.
It was Hone who went into coalition with National and ACT, the Neo-Lib Government, mate! You forgot that?
Nope it was not Hone, but the Maori party, which went into coalition with the Troy scum. Hone, worker out this was bad for Maori, and tried to get the Maori party to stop being lap dogs. This failed, and he was booted.
So the last labour government did not support neo-liberal economics there Clemgeopin? Did it get rid of the reserve bank act – did I miss that? Your the one re-writing history mate. Neo-liberals can’t tell what the dominate ideology is, because their snorting to much shit.
Don’t vote for Neo-Lib parties mate. I won’t be either, because I will be voting Labour with a very clear mind and more importantly, a clearer conscience.
um..!..labour is a neo-lib party..
..it has been since rogernomics..
I think Te Reo Putake that you’re reading this situation correctly.
Vote Positive, Te Reo Putake. You isn’t doing it right.
In short, commentaters far and wide are petrified of the unknown and unique quantity that is Internet/Mana because those scones all safe in their jobs with their investment property portfolio brimming with stolen wealth. Internet/Mana are new and raw, but committed to both disenfranchised Maori, and the young.
David Cunliffe knows this. So does John Key.
Watch out.
In short, commentaters far and wide are petrified of the unknown and unique quantity that is Internet/Mana because those scones all safe in their jobs with their investment property portfolio brimming with stolen wealth. Internet/Mana are new and raw, but committed to both disenfranchised Maori, and the young.
Completely agree.
Where is the morality? National Party Stooge, ethnic cleanser, and serial dummy-spitter and walker way, Peters is okay by Labour, but a party with a committment to genuine Labour Party values is not?
Sickening
@ Phillip ure
I went to IMP meeting tonight. About 150 there mixture of hair colours ie a few grey, mostly young middle age, many Maori. Supportive crowd. All spoke well, Laila, Kim Dotcom and Georgina Beyer. I still feel they have something to offer. To be crude they are the laxative needed to get National and Labour-lite moving and shaking.
MMP was embraced in an attempt to get better politicians and get people who represented various groups in the country. IMP is another initiative to break the old parties entitlement deadlock and see if they care.
I think we should try and get IMP into government at some level. Their freshness and lack of secret agendas that must be the reason that Labour is still uninspiring could be the shake-up that gummint needs. And forget what would suit Labour. Labour hasn’t done much for the country since way back. We want them in but not necessarily with the easiest ride they can get.
If Hone is a prima donna, let him, we have had enough of the beehive just being NZs Globe Theatre whether they strut and shout insults. Let’s have a tense, working government. and get somewhere near our required goals.
edited
“.. Labour hasn’t done much for the country since way back. ..”
..and it wd seem they plan more of the same..
..i wonder if the greens will show some balls..
..and (if the numbers fit) will refuse to work with peters..and insist on a lab/grn/int/mana govt..
..(i mean..why wd the greens choose peters over int/mana..?..after all those years of him screwing them over/pouring shit on them..they aren’t that masochistic..are they..?..surely..?..
..clearly this post-election choice will be a watershed for them/their future too..
..(i hope they realise this..and don’t sell out too..)
..that wd now seem to be our only hope of not just even more same-old..same-old…
..otherwise we just have clark-labour-redux to look forward to….
..(with the only one absent from the line-up being clark..)
.and that won’t help anyone/change anything..
@phillip u 9.46
Agree
I was at the meeting in Nelson too grey – jeepers the energy was great. IMP need to get MP’s in the house and I can’t wait for that.
@ martymars 10.22
Did you have to come over from Takaka/Golden Bay for meeting? I see you thought it worth it anyway. I thought Kim spoke well – hadn’t seen him before.
There is no reason not to support the IMP even for those who aren’t convinced about him because Laila and the others will throw a hefty spanner in the works, which I think can then be used to turn some rusty nuts. Eh? Hah. What do you reckon on that image?
I feel we are in that situation where decision making is made easy because there are so few other options. It’s a what do you have to lose question that gets a brutally frank answer.
edited
Yes, came over with a mate (who made the last statement in questiontime) and I enjoyed it. Kim did speak well and Georgina was passionate and really good and of course Laila was magnificent. I did miss not having Hone there – I would have liked to meet him and shake his hand/hongi him.
The rusty nuts works for me lol and he is a big spanner indeed.
Check out weka’s comment at the bottom of open mike – I am glad he is not standing for parliament but I’m also glad he is there as part of it all.
I’m thinking of trying to get to one, not sure which one as they’re all a drive away. After seeing the video I’m thinking it might not be my thing though lol. Is is noisy and rally-ish? I’ll need a quiet spot with view and something to sit on.
Yes it was a bit rah rah – good music but I think they are picking small venues for maximum crowding – no quiet spot really. I haven’t watched a video but I suspect they tell the story pretty well. Good to have you back commenting btw – missed your insights – all the best.
thanks, I missed the place 🙂
Was there seating? How long was it?
Seating but 50 standing – get there early, they started 20 minutes late but music good. It went for 2 hours including questions – I’m sure they could seat you appropriately if you get there early and let them know.
sweet, thanks, I might see if I can phone them.
Great comment, beard. TRP is repeating the line of the scared right of the Labour Party – the Rogernomes who should have joined ACT. It seems once again that they’re happy to stay in opposition. Mana is building support for the same things that Big Norm would have supported, so why doesn’t Labour see this as an opportunity to make some real changes?
What I find striking and tragic is that Key is happy to encourage ACT so he can claim to be near the centre while hitting us with far right policies, while Labour does everything to distance themselves from Mana so they don’t have to take even half a step to the left.
“..Mana is building support for the same things that Big Norm would have supported, so why doesn’t Labour see this as an opportunity to make some real changes?..”
..+ 1..
Sure looks like Cunliffe is shaping to have far more options than Key.
The rest as DC relentlessly says is up to the public.
Yep. It will be interesting to see if the IMP will lose voters to Greens now that they will only have a token presence at best.
Why do you assume that the Greens would want to be part of a Labour NZF Government.
Only, she didn’t, going by the text of the linked article. She said she had the impression an unofficial understanding had been reached:
‘”I think it’s already happening there,” says Ms Sykes.”It’s been informally signalled.”‘
So not a ‘secret deal done’ at all.
Whether it is true or not I do not know. Probably not. But you can’t substantiate an impression. That’s why it is an impression. So complaining that is ‘unsubstantiated’ is phony indignation. She only thinks it has been signalled to her but there isn’t any formal agreement.
Again, you are presenting Hone’s impression as if he had claimed it was established fact. He is giving a reaction to unsubstantiated information:
‘If there’s any truth to what I have seen today, then somebody’s head should roll” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira when told of emails suggesting Kelvin Davis’ campaign team in Tai Tokerau was planning to launch an attack campaign against him with money solicited from National.’
The claims might be false, but Harawira is not claiming they are true. So you can’t justifiably accuse him of telling blatant lies.
(I suppose you’ll now fall back on to semantic quibbling about how you didn’t accuse him of lying, just that his press release ‘contained blatant lies.’ Which is nonsense, as stating an opinion about a hypothetical can’t be a lie. Harawira is not claiming the emails exist or the deal has been done.)
I guess Labour – having sold out to Winston – will now play this dirty game to the max.
Don’t need semantics, lurgee. I linked to the press release so that folk could read it for themselves. To save you the time, here are the relevant bits:
The press release is entitled “Labour Sells out to National”.
In the body of the press release is this quote: “National has been directly responsible for driving up unemployment, homelessness, ill health, and poverty for Maori right across the north” said Harawira. “I’m trying to get rid of them and Kelvin Davis and his crew are doing deals with them!”
Both headline and quote are bullshit. No deal, no sell out.
Just what are the key stats for Maori in the North? You seem to be very sure that Harawira’s statement is a lie.
No argument with the first sentence, WB. It’s the second sentence that’s bollocks, but I’m guessing you know that already.
The headline, I’ll grant you, could be better. A question mark might have helped.
But Harawira’s “I’m trying to get rid of them and Kelvin Davis and his crew are doing deals with them!” comment is obviously a rhetorical flourish. A few lines before, he is quoted as saying, “Changing the government is going to be tough enough – it’ll be bloody impossible if Labour does dirty deals with National” which – with the context given in the opening paragraph – establishes he’s talking about a hypothetical situation, not one proven to have happened.
Surely taking remarks out of context is what The Other Side do? Or is Cunliffe’s Winston Lovin’ Labour now part of The Other Side?
How is it taking it out of context when I published the context? I put a link in the post and you asked me to specifically show where the lie was. Which I did.
The quote earlier in the press release you supply was dealing in the hypothetical and speaking in the future tense. Fine. No problem with that. But then Hone moves to the literal and to the present tense. ie “are doing deals”. Not ‘supposed to be’ or ‘allegedly’ or ‘if’.
And it’s not a rhetorical flourish; this wasn’t Hone on the stump making it up as he goes. It’s a bullshit claim in an official press release. It’s the hypocrisy of Hone bleating about an opponent’s negative tactics while being happy to smear that opponent himself that I object to.
You’re taking it out of context because you are only looking at one part of the statement.
The earlier part confirmed that there was doubt about the matter: “Changing the government is going to be tough enough – it’ll be bloody impossible if Labour does dirty deals with National.” Note, ‘if Labour does’. Not ‘with Labour doing.’
That provides the context for the later flourish, “I’m trying to get rid of them and Kelvin Davis and his crew are doing deals with them!”
I don’t see how you can call it a lie, unless you ignore the preceding comment altogether.
Though, bluntly, the TV3 emails suggest there was some sort of collusion going on between some Labour people associated with Kelvin Davis’s campaign and National, or the pro-National community. Suggesting the proposed website is ‘not aimed at traditional supporters’ (!) and that ‘National supporters may contribute’ and using the National slogan! It stinks. And I think Harawira’s comment that “The whole thing is set up for Labour to solicit money from National to come after me,” is pretty damn close to the truth.
Only perhaps not suspicious enough!
“..I guess Labour – having sold out to Winston – will now play this dirty game to the max…”
..+ 1..
People’s Front of Judea much? Fucking yawn, fucking children. Vote Green.
Some people love the greens. Some others try eating greens, smell it, try chewing it, but then end up spitting it all out because while some green stuff are nice and sweet, some of the greens are bitter, sour, nauseating, dangerous and we may even end up getting an en mass upset tummy, especially if it is not cooked very well with care! Be watchful! Kia Mataara!
Just saying!…And being positive! You are welcome!
“The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ‘em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.”
Two points.
In our party’s constitution Labour’s first core principle is “All political authority comes from the people by democratic means including universal suffrage, regular and free elections with a secret ballot.”
We won’t be doing pre-election deals. It’s up to New Zealanders to decide who they send to Parliament.
After the election I’ll talk with anyone committed to changing the Government. It’s fair to say that won’t include National, Act or Colin Craig’s group.
On the otherhand, maybe you all think that Davis has no chance, and the rest is just posturing to increase the party vote elsewhere.
“..If this election comes down to one seat, and Labour loses because Davis beats Hawawira, I doubt that the left will ever forgive Labour or DC…”
..+1..
TRP doesn’t speak for the Labour party any more than I do.
But I have to say after reading Hone and other IMP supporters today (including about 4 or 5 rather over the top posts at TDB which often appears to be a IMP spin site), my impression was (like TRP) that clearly there didn’t appear anyone of cabinet grade supporting the Mana party.
What they fail to understand is that politics in a parliamentary MMP environment is first about getting the support from the population in the form of seats in parliament, and then having enough experience to guide legislation and regulations through the caucuses, cabinet and parliament. To me it often appears that the IMP is mostly about bullshitting themselves about how much vote they can get, and too little work actually getting out the vote.
This seems to be pretty evident in TTT. Of course Kelvin Davis is fighting hard for the seat. That is what the Labour party selected him to do. If that is worrying Hone and the IMP supporters, then I’d say that they clearly haven’t been putting the work into getting the vote out.
FFS Hone is an incumbent MP. You have to be pretty bad as an MP in terms of doing the electorate work or have a strong swing against your party to lose a seat as an incumbent MP. So what is all of the hysteria about? He thinks that he could lose because he hasn’t been doing his job?
Doesn’t sound like cabinet material to me.
Maybe Laila is rusty but she does have parliamentary experience outside cabinet. Sykes looks like a potentially good MP later on.
However it was also clear to me that if the IMP politicians did the things that would be required from their relatively low vote weight in parliament and relative inexperience, then the same people attacking Kelvin now would be rounding on them for deserting the cause. They look like amateurs and dillentiantes at actual working politics.
Of course what does my opinion matter? I’ve only been directly supporting winning politicians for more than 30 years.
wow..!..
Deal with it. I’m pretty blunt and direct with my opinions. Just ask almost any Labour politician and the many activists from various sides who I’ve talked to or worked with over the years.
Of course it helps that the reason I do help politicians (and run this site) is to assuage my conscience about my strong preference to code and to neither be a manager nor be a politician. Being blunt and having a rep for not voluntarily wearing shoes has been a pretty good defense against those.
But I really don’t have much tolerance for people who don’t actually think about the downstream political effects of their actions and words.
All I’m describing is how many long term campaigners and politicians will view these childish wee tantrums about Kelvin’s campaign.
shame i can’t be as ‘blunt and direct’ as i wd like..
..’cos in this case..i wd get banned if i did that…
Nope. You’ve read the policy right? You must have. I haven’t ‘noticed’ you for some time. In fact as a moderator I’ve only ‘noticed’ you recently when I’ve looked at people saying that we should ban you.
Stay roughly on topic. Don’t attack authors personally. Don’t try to tell us how to run our site (like telling us who we should ban). Don’t astroturf excessively. Make sure that if you abuse someone that you make it relevant to the post, comment you’re replying to, and have a point. Don’t display fire and forget trolling or many of the other trolling firestarter techniques.
Then I don’t ‘notice’ people when I’m moderating because I mainly look at patterns or behavior. There are currently 777,959 Comments on the site. If I’d actually bothered to read them I’d have long since worn my eyes out and I’d never have had time to work on code.
You also know that you’re a lot safer when I’m willing to engage with someone without bothering to use the many intensely personal ego penetrating stilettos or the [warnings] I’ve developed for moderating purposes over the years. It usually means I don’t perceive them to be a potential threat to the site or its comment stream – which is what I’m usually concerned with.
LPrent, that’s a hell of a lot of words to diss one small party you claim aint going nowhere,
So now we know what you do not want, what is it you do want from this election, a Labour/NZFirst minority coalition with the Greens told to stand on the sidelines and be quiet by Winston Peters??…
I really don’t care one way or another about the IMP except in that some of their politicians and supporters appear to want to demand how other politicians, candidates, and activists should operate.
They never seem to feel the need to constrain their “dissing”. Why should I? After all they’re the ones demonstrating the behaviour of dissing a candidate for doing nothing more than what he was selected to do by another party.
And the IMP is a such an easy target once I let my fingers off their leash.
Riii-iight LPrent, as far as targets go they all, all the parties across the spectrum are easy targets for those of us with wicked fingers,
This close to the election tho, from the politicians, and from us lot here, it does seem pretty much an irrelevancy,
Such a slicing and dicing i would suggest is best left for after the 20th of September…
Exactly. The point is that you go off and win your seats in parliament from the voters, then start figuring out the government. All of this crap about not giving Hone and the IMP a hard time by making them work for their seats is just that – crap.
You only have to look at the consequences to Act and United Future to see the dire consequences of coat-tail deals on political movements. They get lazy and seem to lose the will to have a political movement. Mana and even the Internet party shouldn’t either need it nor ask for it for their own good.
Question, I thought this site is in the interests of working people? Labour/labours/working class – call it what you will.
I’d ask as an anarchist, that the game that you play – winning? In whose interest? Because if Davis is receiving money from National, well I’d argue that is not in the interests of working people.
Having technocrats, who play a good parliament game, really hasn’t worked out to well for working people either. Neo-liberalisms still here folks. The third way was a joke, which hurt just as bad.
And this game you play to win, you lose a lot. I’d say we haven’t had a government that truly represented the wishes and desires of working people for some time, the early 1970’s come to mind.
Also, there is as an anarchist, a part of the game which I find really sickening. That is the left will lose to the right – then the right will gut, and kick down working people. They will starve their children, make their work hell and install fear. And all the time, a big part of the left keep playing the game, win they will, tinker a bit they will, reform a bit as well. But once the right get back it in – it’s back to the curb for us working stiffs.
Read the about and the policy. You might get a clearer idea about what this site is about.
I’m afraid that I can’t really see the relevance of your comment to that. In fact I’d say that you are simply trying to define the terms of the debate to be on your terms rather than bothering to listen to what other people are saying.
Perhaps you should pull your head out of your arse for long enough to try a brand new experience – listening to the opinions of others. They will often surprise you by having a train of logic that you’ve been too lazy, bigoted and self-absorbed in the past to follow.
OK, if Davis is receiving money from National, are you OK with that?
One last question Iprent. Are you OK with Davis and his association with David Farrar and Cameron Slater?
Are you happy with the relationship between you and your habit of lying stupidly?
What is it with pissant wankers and their habit of trying to use “when did you last beat your grandmother?” arguments. The eternally self righteous always use that style of simple minded trick.
Anarchists, libertarians,and the evangelical religious. For all of those groups, it is one of their defining characteristics for their more stupid members.
Do you have evidence that Davis is receiving money from National?
f.y.i..
..in the pitch davis did to head office for his attack-site..
..he noted as a positive aspect..the ability to get funding from national supporters who hate harawira..
..and farrar and slater are on record as having donated..
“..in the pitch davis did to head office for his attack-site..
..he noted as a positive aspect..the ability to get funding from national supporters who hate harawira..”
Got any evidence for that phil?
media news reports…herald or stuff…and tv…
Link please, or it didn’t happen. I suspect what you are referring to is Slater and co being smart arses, but beyond that there is no National Party funding of Davis.
It didn’t happen, but It’s okay, pu now agrees with what I wrote yesterday despite slagging me off for it.
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-07082014/#comment-861880
“..Link please, or it didn’t happen..”
oh really..?
..didyahear the sun came up this morning..?
..(no ‘liink’..sorry..!..but it did ‘happen’..eh..?..
..but if you choose not to believe..?..feel free..eh..?..
..and..i don’t just make shit up…eh..?)
No he doesn’t. Just the usual mischief makers who are purportedly mere National party supporters.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11304222
Kelvin left himself wide open to such ‘mischief’.
Managing to get a photo line-up such as the one you link to is an infinitely stupid thing to have done.
I hope next time a candidate for the left (presumably that is what Davis is?) thinks about aiming their message toward National sponsors they will think about the consequences prior to bumbling forward with their stupid ideas.
Labour is the largest left-wing party and it is an ever increasing fascination to me how they manage to have such minimum grasp when it comes to astute strategy.
As I understand what happened, he had a donations page open saying where to send the money to. I doubt that it was sophisticated enough to have a actual page to make donations with.
Some self-professed wits in the right blogosphere donated a peanut amount. I suspect that the first anyone in Labour TTT campaign knew that had happened was when the bloggers announced it.
I don’t have a particular problem with it. I’ve ‘sold’ books of Labour raffle tickets to my Act friends when they wanted me to fix something for them. I’ve had ardent population conservationists donating to Barnardos to support other peoples children. It always amused me to price some of my work that way because I really didn’t want to get paid for it (the IRD and I don’t like each other much).
I’ve donated to causes that I personally disagreed with, but thought that someone should continue to explore them (my nieces animal welfare tee-shirts come to mind).
But generally small money is just small money when it comes to electorate campaigns. It is essentially meaningless in terms of influence. There is a reason why there are virtually no limits of tracking small amounts of money in the electoral law.
So no I have no problems with jokers making mischief with donations. Tell me do you?
I have quite a range of people who contribute to the costs of running this site. I usually have no idea who they are.
I could help you from committing a sin that one or more of them were right wingers (in fact I know of at least two that are) and you are inadvertently profiting from their largesse.
Would you like me to remove you from that temptation? I’d hate to get between a fool and their obsessional religious rules.
Yeah, I read something about Slater and co donating a hundred bucks each because of the FB page, and then Davis saying he would take the money and donate it to Rape Crisis. Seems reasonable and hardly evidence that National are funding Davis’ campaign.
i don’t recall anyone saying national are funding davis’ campaign..
..just that he cited that possibility of national supporters contributing to the planned harawira.dotcom attack-site….as a positive..
..oh..!..and media reports had ‘chippy’ hipkins markking his support for the davis attack-site plan..(on a facebook page..or something..from memory..)
“So what is all of the hysteria about?”
I would guess the potential of vote splitting to lose Harawira the seat and possibly the left the election. It’s not just HH and KD in the race.
I will note again that the GP quietly just didn’t stand anyone in either TTT or Waiariki. Smart.
Myself, I don’t think IMP/MP/IP should be part of the govt beyond C and S. Both because those parties need more experience and time to build solid foundations, and because we need a left wing govt that has a first term of finding its feet without too many complications (whether we will get that from Labour is another matter, and Harre is probably a better bet for a Minister than some of the Labour MPs). I also hope that the GP does really well and that they do a good deal with Labour that allows them to really make some inroads in the next 3 years, and I think IMP in cabinet would undermine that. IMP would be better outside cabinet and free to say what they want. They also need to do the time that builds respect.
MMP got screwed early on, esp by Peters, and we have yet to see parties develop constructive, positive coalition building and maintaining skills. This is another reason to hope for the GP to do well, and I hope they have their shit sorted around the coalition.
I’m disappointed by both Mana and Labour in this mess. Both look like they are playing the game at the expense of the real. Shame.
“..I will note again that the GP quietly just didn’t stand anyone in either TTT or Waiariki. ..”
i didn’t know that..good on them..!
https://www.greens.org.nz/people/candidates/electorate
🙂
My view as well. What this latest round has brought home to me is exactly how politically inexperienced many of the M/IP/IMP supporters really are.
Labour has doggedly stood people (even if they had to draft people in) in every seat winnable or not for virtually all of the last 97 years. Offhand I can’t recall an electorate without a Labour candidate. But there must have been a few with late running family and or work issues or where they just dropped dead.
There have been the odd occasions I know of when someone has tried to do ‘deals’. Most notable in recent years in the MMP environment was probably Stuart Nash’s comments in Epsom in 2005, and Helen Clark’s about Coromandel in 1999 (when parties like IP or Mana weren’t even twinkles). But the latter was probably more Helen bluntly stating the obvious and the media reading a lot more into it.
The idea was explored long ago, and rechecked frequently inside Labour activists over the years. But it was always considered that it really caused too much hassle inside Labour and confusion amongst voters (as I think will happen in Epsom and Ohuria this time for National supporters). So decisions like that are left up to the voters, just as they are this time.
The GP usually had problems getting people to be willing candidates in many electorates to go and chase the party vote. I can’t recall any time since coromandel where it has actually seriously tried for an electorate seat. So it has had room to be a bit more strategic.
“Labour has doggedly stood people (even if they had to draft people in) in every seat winnable or not for virtually all of the last 97 years.”
Yes, and in FPP that makes sense. It doesn’t make sense under MMP, if it means that Labour lose the chance to form govt because they stood against another left wing party in an electorate seat and won. Unless Labour want to be govt on their own, or want to protect the party long term at the expense of the country.
“There have been the odd occasions I know of when someone has tried to do ‘deals’.”
There doesn’t have to be any dealing though. Look at what the GP has done. I would be highly surprised if there is any deal with Mana. I think it much more likely that the GP made its own strategic decision that having Harawira and/or Sykes win their seats was going to increase the likelihood of a left wing govt being formed. The GP obviously don’t have the antipathy towards Mana that Labour does, so I’m sure there are politics and ideology involved too.
“The idea was explored long ago, and rechecked frequently inside Labour activists over the years. But it was always considered that it really caused too much hassle inside Labour and confusion amongst voters (as I think will happen in Epsom and Ohuria this time for National supporters). So decisions like that are left up to the voters, just as they are this time.”
I don’t really follow this. If a party puts up a candidate and the candidate goes hard, then surely that tells their voters to vote for them. Which means that Labour really is willing to risk the left losing the election so that Davis can have an electorate seat instead of a list one. Can you understand why those of us outside the party are not understanding this?
“The GP usually had problems getting people to be willing candidates in many electorates to go and chase the party vote. I can’t recall any time since coromandel where it has actually seriously tried for an electorate seat.”
It looks to me like the GP is now taking a long term view to getting electorate seats again, building itself up to that. Obviously it will need to be a bigger party to do that.
“So it has had room to be a bit more strategic.”
What are the downsides for Labour of being strategic, either by not standing candidates in certain electorates, or by standing quiet ones? Certainly not coming out all guns blazing for the Māori seats, which may split the vote. I can guess a few reasons, but am curious what you think.
@ weka..
..+ 1..
You are wrong about MPP. The electorate seat bases are pretty damn good at ensuring that the grass roots campaigning is carried out over the entirety of the country. That is how you get party vote that is higher then 10%
That is why the Greens & Labour stand people in seats that they know they don’t have a hope in hell of winning
I will note again that the GP quietly just didn’t stand anyone in either TTT or Waiariki. Smart.
Do you know they did that for strategic reasons? My understanding is they aim to stand a candidate in all electorates, because they have decided that having a Green logo beside the electorate names on the ballot paper means people are more likely to tick them for the party vote.
The only reason I know that they have done this is because I looked at the list linked above. You could try going through the list and seeing if those two electorates are the only ones they didn’t stand people in and then draw some conclusions maybe 😉
edit: looks like 56 candidates compared to 71 electorates.
I think the point is the GP did this quietly and without the necessity for a deal. Just smart thinking on their part and demonstrates they understand MMP well.
@ weka..
..+ 1..
But how do you know they just didn’t have any candidates for those 5 electorates?
I don’t, and I would guess that that’s the reason for at least some of the lack. Seems a coincidence about TTT and Waiariki though.
hmmm, not quite sure this is right, because the GP list doesn’t match the NZ parliament list (GP using old electorate names? Kelston? Upper Harbour?), but by a process of elimination, using the parliament list, here are the electorates that the GP aren’t standing anyone in (two might be wrong if the GP is using old names)
General Electorates:
Bay of Plenty – Tony Ryall/Nat
Botany – Jami-Lee Ross/Nat
Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe/Nat
Hunua – Paul Hutchinson/Nat
Nelson – Nick Smith/Nat
Pakuranga – Maruice Williamson/Nat
Palmerston North – Ian Lees Galloway/Lab
Rangitata – Jo Goodhew/Nat
Rangitīkei – Ian McKelvie/Nat
Rotorua – Todd McClay/Nat
Waikato – Lindsay Tisch/Nat
Waitakere – Paula Bennett/Nat
Whanganui – Chester Burrows/Nat
Māori Electorates
Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta/Lab
Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira/Mana
Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell/Mp
So you could be right karol, it might simply be that they didn’t have people for those electorates. On the other hand, it could look pretty strategic too.
Kelston & Upper Harbour are two new electorates for this election.
Waitakere was an electorate for the 2011 election, but it has been split between some of the other electorates. Part of it will be in the Helensville electorate for this election, and part in Upper Harbour. Paula Bennett is candidate for Upper Harbour this election.
thanks. Interesting that the parliament website is showing the old ones, I guess that makes sense until after the election. I needed the electorates as a list, which was surprisingly hard to find.
Here’s the candidate list for all parties by electorate.
There doesn’t look any logic to the electorates the Greens are not standing a candidate. My guess is it is because they don’t have anyone willing and able in those areas.
Also, I thought people could still sign up as candidates til some time later this month.
If there is any logic, as opposed to lack of suitable candidates, I would guess it is this:
Prioritising resources to seats where a high profile ups the party vote. Hence the large number of Nat seats they’re not standing in.
Not standing in the 2 Māori seats where it works against the left to split the vote.
Prioritising resources to seats where a high profile ups the party vote. Hence the large number of Nat seats they’re not standing in.
There does seem a logic to that.
Or, in Nat seats, maybe there’s less people who support the Greens, and thus a smaller pool to draw candidates from – thus back to no-one suitable/willing standing up to do it.
Obviously it’s apparent you have done a lot of work for Labour, and just as importantly run this forum for the benefit of all of us here.
Fine, there’s no-one currently cabinet grade in IMP although personally I think New Zealand would be a better place with Hone Harawira and Laila Harre at the table somewhere.
I think IMP is very good at getting support from the population. Namely, disenfranchised Maori and the young educated set. They are new and yet you want them to show the same political qualities as seasoned players?
They are a first time political adjutant, so why would they need to think beyond their seemingly core philosophy of changing the government, addressing Maori concerns, and supplying uncapped internet?
I think both Mana and the IP will do better outside of cabinet and the freedom that will come with that. They will also serve NZ better that way this term too.
What I would love to see, but am in no way holding my breath for, is for the left wing parties to work together with the idea that all people deserve to be represented and that no one party is capable of doing that anymore (if they ever were). That’s the real potential of MMP.
I love that both Mana and the IP are bringing new people into politics, and if they get their shit together they will be training future leaders for NZ.
Plus that.
David Cunliffe has apparently recognised that IMP may be important in terms of supply and seats but also that the time is not right for positions in caucus. I think the party voting base for IMP and I think the reps for IMP would be happy with this outcome.
All this would work well if only the Labour TTT candidate would drop his machismo and get on board.
That anti IMP website they had ready to go must have cost a lot of the funds Davis is now lamenting as lost.
That is strategy, I suppose.
If I was the IMP and if they manage to get 4 or 5 seats in parliament, then at most what they should be trying for is probably associate minister roles outside of cabinet.
I personally think that one of the reasons that the Alliance disintegrated back in 2001/2 was because they were rushing their MPs into cabinet and ministerial roles without good prep in a party and without good mentoring.
You have to remember that associates is where all Labour MPs usually go through on their way towards the full cabinet ministerial roles.
Harre’s career was probably a good example of that after 1999. I suspect that she and the other high fliers would have been better employed in mentoring their gaggle of new MPs in the intricacies of parliament rather than trying to be ministers too early.
Basically, I read that as saying that IMP need to take a 10-15 year view on developing their political parties and political depth. Of course, chances are that hotheads will take over and over cook it into a smouldering mess, but time will tell.
I think Hone would make an excellent Minister of Police. He knows what they do and would not be scared of them like many other ministers seem to have been.
Weka
Thanks for dredging up that DC statement, it’s been running through my mind a bit these past few days. At the time, it seemed a fine declaration of principles, the shine is coming off a bit now however.
I can’t help thinking that a Labour-led coalition will need the IMP MPs votes simply because they can’t rely on their own factions to vote in unison (eg recent “windfall” vote). A bare majority in parliament of; Labour/ GP/ NZF MPs, will find itself unable to pass many bills without the 6 IMP votes as a buffer. I wouldn’t be surprised if half a dozen ABCs defected to National post-election if that gave a Nat/ NZF coalition the numbers.
The appeal of the IMP vote appears to be in engaging with the otherwise disenfranchised; those who TRP and his ilk have determined; “‘do we need ‘em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no”. My view is that we should strive to have as many perspectives as possible represented in parliament (even the CP’s “something”). My hope is that one of the main IMP requirements for C&S would be a drastic reduction in the 5% threshold (1.6% would be my preference, even 3% would be an improvement) to be instituted before the 2017 election.
Which begs the question of how NZ can mature politically to reach the potential of MMP. I agree, it’s about increasing representation across the board. There is still too much old school power play shit going on, where MPs and parties think it’s about how much power they get for themselves rather than sharing and building good democracy. That’s why I am so disappointed in DC, and while I appreciate he is between a rock and a hard place, I am beginning to think his values are far too expendable. It’s such a depressing thought, that we are going to have to wait for the oldies to retire out of Labour before anything really good could come in terms of positive change (not to mention Peters’ retirement).
In addition to all that, it concerns me to see Labour and Mana at such odds. This is such a crucial relationship, between the Pakeha left and Māori. We know what happened between Clark and Turia, and how that has impacted on NZ, so I’m bewildered that Labour wouldn’t be trying to build bridges with Mana. I know they need to be careful to not scare the horses, but I don’t see the need for outright hostility. Unfortunately it now looks like the tit for tat shit has gone on too long and we are reaching a point of no return. That’s macho politics for you I guess 🙁
+1 Weka
“I’m bewildered that Labour wouldn’t be trying to build bridges with Mana”
Fear – scared people and parties do silly things. The sad thing is that it shows an attitude of scarcity instead of abundance. Less people voted for the gnats last time than the number that didn’t vote – that is a fact that should be seared into a few foreheads.
wow, I didn’t know that.
Marty’s on to something, though it needs some qualification. The actual gap between voters and enrolled non voters was around 800k. However, I don’t know how many are simply not on the roll at all, so it’s possible that there are more potential voters out there than the million who voted National.
3m enrolled voters, 2.2m votes cast. 75% turnout. Just over 1 million voted National, almost exactly the same number as did in 2008. The difference was the drop in turnout. National improved their overall percentage by 2.5%, while not improving their actual vote. The media saying it was a done deal and convincing opposition voters to stay home probably helped Key limp home. That and Phil Goff.
The really important thing is that the National vote was static. The polls for National are all down on the same time pre-2011, so they are not likely to get better than the 1m votes they achieved in both those elections. Which is the important thing about marty’s stat; if we can get even a hundred thousand ENV’s to make the effort, we have a change of government.
I did try to work it out but couldn’t 🙁
It was a line from Laila at the IMP roadshow last night.
thanks TRP, that’s good to understand (and makes a bit more sense of Labour strategy, although I still think they’re daft). Someone on ts said the other day that there were 800,000 ENV, and 200,000 not enrolled (that’s the million that some people refer to instead of 800,000). Hopefully someone will pop up and be able to confirm that with a reference.
http://www.mygov.org.nz/tools/non-voters#NzkxODU4LG5vYm9keQ==
that one sort of gets close
interesting tool, thanks have bookmarked that.
MM
Thanks for the link – I hadn’t come across that particular tool before. I find that if 10% of the non-vote is put towards the MANA party then that gives them 6 seats in parliament. That’s Harawira’s 1+5 list, curiously; the same 10% only gives +4 to the GP, and; +3 to Labour (shame there’s no way to allocate the nonvote to several paties at the same time). Of course, that’s all based on 2011 numbers, but does seem entirely doable for the IMP alliance.
The button up at the top right corner allows you to switch to the “MMP review” page, and set the threshold and coat-tail rules as you choose for the elections 1996-2011. Which is fun, and a bit disturbing with 0% threhold getting; 3 CP & 1 ALCP MP in 2011 (-2Nat, -1LP, -1 GP); 5 NZF, 1 Bill & Ben & 1 Kiwi in 2008 (-3Nat, -2 LP, -1 GP, -1 ACT), and 1 Destiny MP in 2005 (-1 Nat).
Cool – I put all the non-voters into Mana and we got 35 or so seats – that made me smile
https://www.facebook.com/www.redsky.tv/photos/a.334553779960314.75108.334536643295361/662871000461922/?type=1&fref=nf
This is another that confirm it – I think 🙂
Just remember, in the early MMP years a lower than 5% threshold would have brought to parliament such stars as Graham Capill.
Its all well and good saying lets go to a 3% threshold, but it may not be so good for our country.
TLH
I believe I covered that with; “even the CP’s “something””. I may not agree with another party’s policies, but their constituents do have the right to be represented in parliament.
Just to be clear (and save TS a lawsuit), I am not claiming that Colin Craig is the paedophile leader of Christian party. However, the Conservative Party does have links through; Gordon Copeland, the Kiwi party and United Future; back to the Christian Coalition of which Capill’s CHP was part.
But while Craig may advocate child abuse, it seems to be more in the nature of physical assault rather than sexual violation. Plus, while Capill was an Anglican minister, Craig is a wealthy Baptist (who is adamant that he not at all crazy).
Why does the left eat itself? Is it because we consider ourselves free and independent thinkers and this contributes to smaller, more desperate factions while the right align themselves, brown shirt style?
I’m reminded of Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia, when the militant arms of several different unions and their international sympathisers fought a common fascist enemy but also amongst themselves.
What would the world have given if Franco was defeated in decent time?
Might have avoided WWII.
this is not that..weepu..
..this is the rightwing-neo-lib in labour cementing in their victories..
..(i’ll betcha ‘chippy’/goff et.al are as happy as a pig in shit…eh..?..)
..and by doing this..labour are just hastening their eventual demise/irrelevancy..
..do you rightwing-toads celebrating this sell out to the right of labour..and peters..
..do you really think this will stop the moves/mood for change..?
..if so..more fool you…
..it’s gonna happen..and if you/labour don’t change their neo-lib ways..
..you/they won’t be part of that change/future..
(and that might happen sooner than you/labour think..if peters goes with national..
..and i note that nobody can answer my how-can-you-trust-him not to do that..question..
..as i said..more fools you..
(ew..!..and those weird freaks peters has as mp’s..?..
..are you sure you have thought this thru properly..?..)
I am personally weary of the Greens and their tactics and extremist positions:
No fracking, No oil mining, No oil exploration, No off shore drilling, No ETS, No/less fishing, No/less cows, No/less dairy, No/less Taranaki, No/less cars, No/less travel, No/less planes etc etc! No this, no that! Not “let us diminish these bad things slowly and steadily.”
Most of us love nature, environment and New Zealand. Not just the Greens. Progressive changes in our ways of doing stuff is very necessary and essential. But that has to be well managed balanced change with utmost care and concern for both the nature as well as for jobs, economy and the people. Labour understands this. They have been in government, are experienced and they know what it takes to make important changes without throwing the baby out of the bath water and getting kicked out by the people in no time.
Greens want it all and want it now without thinking of the consequences to us and the country of such an extremist position when NZ is but a small speck in our vast world.
No wonder people get worried and weary of the Greens and they languish at about 10% to 12% support from the public. This fear also translates and diminishes possible public support for a Labour led progressive government!
Today Cunliffe on TV3, 6 pm news, stated that he would block this huge latest land sale. Norman did not even back him up in his TV statement!
those who advocate doing nothing are the fucken ‘extremists’…
..and factcheck:..norman said that even if personally opposed..if acting as a minister he wd have to follow the law when determining that decision..
..cunnliffe just mouthed of/fired from the hip..
..who looked the more statesmanlike/competent/ready for work..?
..d’ya reckon..?
..(hint:..his name doesn’t start with a ‘c’..)
..and seriously..!..just going on cunnliffes widely varying statements re int/mana over previous wks..
..it’s clear what he says means s.f.a..
..the wind might change..and with it his ‘heartfelt’-opinion of the moment..
..here today…and likely gone tomorrow..
..he is fucken all over the place..
Sorry TRP (Well no, I’m not really). Within a few lines the internal radar was beeping TRP warning signals. And sure enough, yet more of your tiresome doffing of the cap to, and espousing the line of what you perceive to be the ‘right and proper’ centre of authority/power. A noble soldier, first to Shearer in spite of surrounding realities, and now …(sigh)
I’ve been arguing for a while now that their are some in labour who are wolves in sheep’s clothing. I think TRP is one of them. A classical liberal who is in labour because he feels to guilty to join the Tory scum openly.
Shame their are people who are just to dam scared to think for themselves and bow and grovel to privilege.
Mind you their is a large section of the liberal elites who are so condescending to working people, that they think they can spin any old shit, and we all to bow our heads and go ‘yes Massa’.
Well to be honest Bill, a bit more of this within Labour and we would probably be polling in the high 30″s or more. The “factions” are costing Labour.
I like Hone but I think Labour’s approach is on the mark, i.e I might like Hone but swing voters don’t, just ask around…Labour’s approach will maximise Labours and the Lefts vote.
Good night all.
Morning Saarbo 😉 Thing is, it’s not about Labour; it’s about the left. Y’know – mmp and all of that?
Fair enough Bill…I was referring to TRP following the party line, Labour needs more of it…the lack of discipline in Labour caucus is probably the biggest factor costing the party currently IMHO.
Reallly really really good post TRP, and i mean, really really really good!!!
Here’s the simple equation, IF Labour manage to defeat Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau in September its pretty much a certainty that Labour will be the opposition for the next 3 years,
Pretty simple, have fun trying wont you all, me i am working and voting for a 5% InternetMana Party and havn’t the time nor energy to debate the dinosaur politics of First Past the Post electoral politics with any of the dinosaurs adherents…
I too would very much like to see Internet-Mana MPs in parliament. They need to go and canvas harder on their policies many of which are excellent. But if they can’t win on their own steam without the ‘help’ of Labour, what good is such a win really?
I do not agree with K. Davis very dirty low tactics. That is a different issue.
Clem, i don’t think i have uttered a word about Mr Davis and His choice of campaign methods here at the Standard and do not plan to,
You are right about the working Party machine, this afternoon was spent here getting the crew together, see who is ‘in’ for this fight, and, sorting out the printers,
i should be up and running by mid-week next week and damn i have this feeling coming over me that Peter’s Ohariu might be in for a dose of acidic prose…
Nice work, bad12!
A piece of unasked advice for you. Before you print your acidic passage, run it through a few people for proof reading and ‘honest’ opinion, particularly to see if it is against electoral legal guidelines and if the passage damage’s Dunne’s potential win or inadvertently actually helps his win!
Lolz, no way…
Cheers, Bad and good luck with that 5% thing! I actually think a party vote of 2- 3% plus is on the cards, especially given Laila’s organisational abilities. But beyond that? Nah.
BTW, you (and a few others) seem to forget that TTT (and every other electorate) is actually a First Past the Post race. MMP hasn’t replaced FPP, it’s incorporated it.
You are also overlooking the maths part of the equation, which is that Labour at 30%, Greens at 12, NZF at 5 (total 47%) is almost enough to govern whatever happens to mana/Internet. The scenario where MIP’s support is needed is a combined total for those 3 of 46 or 47%. It’s 48% in some scenarios (ACT win Epsom and get an extra list MP on a party vote of 1.5% or the maori party win an electorate seat and get above 2.5%). Yes, I know I should get out more, but that MMP seat calculator is just so much fun!
Below 46%, there’s no chance anyway. The result will look just like it does now; National by a seat or two. Above 48%, well, Mana becomes irrelevant because that’s the point at which National and any combination of right wing partners fall short of a majority. Labour are then in the box seat, whatever happens to mana.
It’s finely balanced, but there is only a narrow window of opportunity for mana/IP. In fact, the best possible result for MIP would be a poor result for Labour, the Greens and NZF. I think the momentum is with the left, but we don’t need all of the left to succeed to get a change of Government.
Thanks for clarifying the game you play.
Pretty much what i was going to say adam…
TRP, i also really really really liked your phrase of the certainty of a Labour/NZFirst Government, god i wish i could dredge up such blind faith,
Please no tips now, you can educate me on how this is achieved after September 20…
In that situation, Peters will almost certainly go with National. Why are people clutching to the idea that Winston will somehow deliver them victory? And are these the same people who frothed and raved about the supposed ‘rightward drift’ under Goff and Shearer, who now want us to succumb to Winston’s sordid embraces?
What can Labour offer him and his party that National can not? Why would he want to destroy his party by jobbing a Labour Party that can only get 30% into power? He’d have to be insane.
The next government will likely be National+NZ First+UF+Maori/ACT.
We had a chance, but schisming within Labour and with the wider left, lack of courage and vision, and poor strategy means it has likely gone.
@ lurgee..
“..Why are people clutching to the idea that Winston will somehow deliver them victory?
And are these the same people who frothed and raved about the supposed ‘rightward drift’ under Goff and Shearer –
..+ 1..
With the ‘tactical voters’ not wanting a bar of NZFirst in election 2014,(an indefinable % of Winstons vote), and, Colon Craig deliberately targeting the Grey Power vote it is at best a 50/50 proposition that Peters and NZFirst will actually be in the Parliament after the election,
Secondly, even if NZFirst do scrape back in with 5% of the vote it is another 50/50 proposition that Peters would support a Labour lead Government,
There’s a strong chance that the result of election 2014 will be NZFirst 4.5% and Colons Conservatives 3.2%,
Should both NZFirst and InternetMana come out of the election with 5% of the vote each, this would put David Cunliffe in the drivers seat,
There is one large chance that Cunliffe will end up with the numbers Labour 33%, Greens 12% and both NZFirst and Internet Mana with 5% each,
In such a scenario NZFirst has no real leverage, none what-so-ever, Peters would be in or out, if Peters chose out, Cunliffe could with such numbers form a Government backed up with confidence and supply from InternetMana,
Obviously it would cost Labour, the food in schools program, a rebuild of the States Housing stock might just be the price,
Its what i am voting For…
I spoke to someone yesterday who’d always supported National but was thinking of voting Internet/Mana – the whole GCSB thingstill resonates – there alone is a reason to make sure they’re viable Laila is capable of hoovering up ex-National votes that probably aren’t available to Labour
Ditto
A wide cross section of people at the InternetMana meeting in Wellington on Monday night, what i would call ‘not the usual suspects’ although i happily admit to being able to identify at least one of the Marxist crew from the capital among the audience…
About a month or two ago, when the Internet Party was formed I had three of my own close family and friends who seemed excited and said they would be voting for IP! I am not sure if they were serious or were just joking. I haven’t checked with them recently but I am keen
to ask them again either closer to the election or after that.
I’ve seriously considered voting IMP in a way that I’ve never considered for the Greens. Laila is what does it for me.
Need to see more of their actual policies though, and since Labour is wanting to marginalise them as much as possible, the most likely outcome is that I’ll stick with Labour.
What curious people you know!
Did you ask them what they thought of Hone Harawira? Might have been interesting to see them grapple with the cognitive dissonance.
I’m disappointed in Kelvin Davis’s and it seems implicitly the Labour party’s take on all this.
I guess they feel they cannot compete with a real party of the left. We saw this with their Winstonian refusal to reach an accomodation with the Greens, and we see it again now with this ill considered IMP bashing.
Three more years of Key and 500 000 kids in poverty by then… thanks guys.
I guess that 97 years of actually winning seats and elections across the whole country doesn’t give you the experience to make informed decisions?
Or the alternative theory is that you could just be a politically inexperienced fool?
Want to guess which one of these two alternatives that I’m leaning towards?
Forgive me if my experience of decades of Labour inaction on such things as slave fishing has dented my confidence in Labour infallibility.
Totally agree – Labour have IMHO completely forgotten the purpose for which they exist. They lost the plot in the 1980’s and are still floundering around in the wilderness. They may be the oldest party – but that doesn’t make them the wisest or the smartest.
Yep; if Labour do not recommit to their historical purpose, they will slowly fade into irrelevancy.
It is what you get with a broad based party that is actually trying to be the government. Typically governments lag their citizens and businesses and there has to be a wide degree of acceptance of the change before wise governments do the change.
Most policy changes require quite a long period, typically at least a decade, of work by activists before they have a hope in hell of enabled. The outrage that can be directed against activist governments is pretty intense.
That is why quite a lot of activist attention is misdirected. It rails against the problem towards government and politicians, where it should be directed towards shifting the focus and norms of voters and industry groups.
I always tell activists that they need to plan most things as if they are a 3 decade campaign rather than impatiently expecting politicians to do their work for them.
That’s a really weird and rather unworthy argument, lprent. Just because Labour has a (rather poor, really) record of winning seats and (occasionally) elections in the past doesn’t mean they know what they are doing now. They’ve been picking leaders for 97 years as well, but their wisdom in that department was called into doubt when they opted fo David Shearer.
The personnel have changed in that time. The people currently involved in Labour’s campaign haven’t been “winning seats and elections across the whole country” for 97 years. Many of them have been involved in losing elections more recently, however.
At the end of the day, Labour is made up of a bunch of individuals and they aren’t always as smart, well motivated or principled as we would like.
Also, would you really trust a 97 year old to run an election campaign?
@ lurgee..
..+ 1..
Yeah all of that is true. However they also have a pretty strong institutional knowledge about what tends to work and what doesn’t. You learn from mistakes.
Of course that also means that there is some ossification as well.
TRPs message is just pumped up two ticks labour loyalism under a camouflage spray of dissing Internet Mana–Hone and encouraging Kunning Kelvin.
One really wonders if enough Labour people actually want to dispatch the Key government unless it is on their absolute terms? Even after all these years it can still surprise how deep seated FPP and reactionary thinking is within sections of Labour. We just had this discussion here a few weeks back thanks to Chimpkins and Kunning Kelvin spilling their guts on social media and just as some common purpose breaks out here and there another dose of disunity.
There are a lot of Mana people that don’t want to be in Government with labour and rogers dregs anyway. Mana is a movement that will carry on between election cycles regardless.
Internet Mana strategic alliance is slightly different being a vehicle for this election only and may wind up shortly after the election anyway so 30 year lectures from Lprent are also somewhat superfluous.
It is way too soon to discuss how power is to be divvied up until there are a few elected MPs floating around. Until the 26th August we don’t even know for sure who the Nats will be fielding. Internet Mana is campaigning for a change of government first. But if anyone seriously counts Winston as good for a progressive future when there are two credible options–Green and hopefully IMP instead then I can point you to a good shrink.
The Alliance and supporters had to drag Labour kicking and screaming to various reforms after 1999 and if it has to happen again in 2014 and 2017 so be it.
All that depends on two important factors.
What % of support have the most supreme PUBLIC decided to give for each party and not on what DEALS have been made BEFORE the election.
Each party has their PRINCIPLES and POLICIES. Show those to the voters. THEY decide. Based on THEIR verdict and percentages received, make POLICY DEALS after the election during the coalition negotiations.
Don’t look for coat tailing or propping up by other parties before the elections. That is neither democratic, fair or correct.
Is Kelvin replacing Shane Jones ?………….. in a round about way.
Labor lost my vote a while ago.
The past few elections I have voted for the Greens as they were the best of a bad bunch by quite a way.
But this time Hone’s getting my vote.
Blairs labor and Obamas democrats have shown what power abusing wankers modern day traditional ‘left’ parties are.
They need the new left to keep them honest.
Labour’s Number One Priority this election must be to defeat National. And it’s number two, and number three priorities. Any anti National party thus helps that goal.
I’m a loyal Labourite, and I loathe Hone at a personal level. But if I were in Te Tai Tokerau, I’d vote for him, because it helps get National out. Simple as that.
+1000. Nice and succinct too.
And I probably would too! But it is the voters themselves that should determine what is best for them strategically and not being told by political parties what is best for them!
I think lprent’s major criticisms of IMP (eg. inexperience, not ready for Cabinet, rash supporters and candidates, on the ground performance issues etc) are valid points but what needs to be taken into account is how new a party they are to the nation-wide game and how well they are doing given that.
Let me compare with Labour, which has immense institutional knowledge built up, experienced operatives at every level and former MPs or senior staffers living in almost all electorates. And yet can still suffer from serious foot in mouth issues and can make you wonder if they can put together 20 solid Cabinet Ministers.
So all in all, yes IMP is making some mistakes, including ones that many veteran Labour activists would consider ‘rookie’ ones, but they are coming up to speed fast. IF they can survive long enough and contest through to 2020 in order to build up some infrastructure and experience, I think they could become a formidable political force.
And even Labour was young once. Founded in 1916, fought first election 1919, became official opposition 1925, propped up minority government 1928-1930, and finally became government 1935. Less than two decades between being a ragtag mob on the West Coast and the working class suburbs of the main centres to sitting round the cabinet table in Wellington.
IMP isn’t starting from nothing either – there is a fair amount of experience and some intelligence and work ethic there too. If unforeseeable electoral success or coalition circumstances were to drop regional development in Hone’s or transport in Laila’s lap I wouldn’t care to assert they’d screw them up. Labour’s ministerial performances, though infintely better than the incumbent vermin, are not invariably stellar. If IMP only coattails 4 MPs that’s one thing – but if they get rather more it would not be out of place to expect more. John Minto might be of some value to education for example – and ruling out such a thing pre-election contradicts earlier statements that Labour would make its coalition decisions after the vote.
The presumptions of neo-liberalism have tended to work against Labour’s assumed technocracy, so that many initiatives were abandoned to the private sector, or like solid energy, rail, or Air New Zealand, allowed to fail. The recent interest in our mittelstand or SMOs hopefully predicates rather better integrated policy. Our fisheries were entrusted to foreign commercial expertise to develop when the more successful foriegn fisheries, like our own agriculture, worked closely with state institutes.
My own field was fisheries, and the high value, locally responsive artisanal model was essentially destroyed in the eighties in favour of a less sustainable colonial bulk commodity export model. NZ seafood exports generate one of the lowest per kilo returns in the world, and our local market is so poor commercially caught local fish is consumed on average less than once a month. From such a low base it should not be hard to generate substantial improvement.
rightwingers on this thread sneer at the ‘inexperience’ of the likes of harre/harawira..?..(!)
..have they looked at the clowns that cluster around their favourite.. winston peters..?
..happy to have them as ministers..eh..?
..(that is actually quite funny..it is such a ridiculous idea..i mean..you wouldn’t trust them to run a cake-stall..would you..?..)
..questiontime has shown/proven these are people barely able to articulate a sentence..
..what ‘experience’ do these individuals show that inspires such confidence in them in the right here..?
Actually, Phil, Tracey Martin has been quite effective in parliament and Andrew Williams has been solid, too. And he’s been the mayor of a large city. Less sure about the others, but I’d say Winston’s team outpoints MIP on the experience front.
ps “rightwingers on this thread”? One of the unusual things about the responses to this post is that none of the regular righties have commented. Perhaps the phrase you meant to use was “people less gloriously, perfectly and modestly left than me”?
i should have qualified that universal condemnation with martin..
..if peters wasn’t such a sexist..martin is the natural inheritor of the leadership role..
..there is no need for him to be looking to ron marks..(f.f.s..!..)
..and trp..as a former shearer fanboy..current ‘we want winston!’ labourite..
..you are firmly in the neo-lib/right..
..didn’t you realise that..?
..rightie..!..know thyself..!..eh..?
..and i have been unable to get out of my head yr ideological-compatriots iprents’ proud credibility-claim yesterday that he has been advising winning political parties for 30 yrs…
..how long ago was it we started down this neo-lib road to wrack and ruin..?
..ya hafta ask..
..and williams..?..yeah..!..nah..!…eh..?
“.and trp..as a former shearer fanboy..current ‘we want winston!’ labourite….you are firmly in the neo-lib/right….didn’t you realise that..?
..rightie..!..know thyself..!..eh..?
Personally attacking topic posters 🙄
How low will you go?
“and i have been unable to get out of my head yr ideological-compatriots iprents’ proud credibility-claim yesterday that he has been advising winning political parties for 30 yrs…”
That’s incredibly stupid, but I’m not surprised.
faux-outrage-attack alert..!
Faux political commentator – “it’s what I do” alert. Lulz
Having a little self implode moment? Run out of weed?
I told you it was addictive.
Sorry, bud, but I’m a unreconstructed socialist, very much on the left of the party. I support Cunliffe, used to support Shearer, used to support HC. But, that’s mainly because I don’t much care who holds that position, or indeed, who’s in caucus. I want the party members to decide the direction of the party and whether we win or lose the election, I’ll keep pushing for more democratisation of decision making and policy.
Frankly, I think you’re mistaking pragmatic analysis for bias. Just because my rationale doesn’t support your favourite party doesn’t make me right wing. Like it or not, the modest party vote gain from distancing MIP outweighs the tiny risk of losing their support inside Parliament. On the numbers, that support is not likely to be needed anyway. If you think differently, why not put an alternative scenario?
alt scenario..
..int/mana 7%-9%..grns 12-14%..labor..making up the numbers..
I was hoping for something based on reality, Phil!
speaking of ‘reality’..
..cd u have a go at answering the question everyone else has shied away from..
..namely..given his track-record..how can you have such blind faith in peters to go with labour..
..when he could just as well prop up a key govt..?
..now that’s ‘reality’…
..that many of your opinion seem unable to face/answer..
..do you ‘trust’ peters..?..really..?
You forget hh actually sat on the government benches under key. Peters never has.
What a shocker to those ttt voters, the revolutionary taking the crown coin.
I touched on that in the post, Phil. I believe Winston wants to be the one to sink Key. I think he’ll meet with him post election, string him along for a while, then royally knife him.
It’s important that Winston hasn’t written off the Greens this time. No MP, no mana. But the door remains open to Russel and Metiria. And both the Greens and Labour are putting up policy that chimes with NZF’s own direction, such as DC ruling out the sale of the Taupo farm. L/G/NZF is looking like a decent fit this time around.
“L/G/NZF is looking like a decent fit this time around.”
Which would provide a stable, left leaning government, fit for the time.
No need for rort deals in ttt and no need to be tainted by hh and kdc.
I heartily concur.
so you are relying on his desire to sink key..to overcome the baubles offered..?
..and you are accusing me of not facing ‘reality’..?..whoar..!
..the ‘reality’ is that peters has labour in his pocket…
..and can play his game at will..
..and what may be a disturbing exercise for you wd be to go back and look at what he was saying about bolger/national..
..before the election..where he then propped them up..
..(going against the desires/expectations of 70% of those who voted for him..believing his pre-election words..and expecting him to not go with national..
..so..can i suggest you add some prayers to yr ‘realities’/certainties..
..prayers that history does not repeat…
..eh..?..)
Sorry, Phil, that didn’t make any sense. Once more in English?
Translation.
..me right….you wrong….Grrrr…..who(a)re….fucken….eh?..
oh..ok..that game/non-answering avoidance..
ok..in simple words..
..peters is a lying rat…and cannot be trusted not to go with key/national..
..why can you not see this..?
..peters cd well be trying for another go at fooling that 70%..again..
..and if he is..he’s certainly got labour/you on board..eh..?
..and why is he playing labour/the voters like this..?
..because he knows that if that 70% thought he wd support national..
..they wd not vote for him..
..and he wd not get back into parliament..
..labour has it in their hands..this election..
..to wipe out act/dung..and peters..
..it puzzles me that they choose not to do this…
“Unreconstructed socialist”? What alternative economic policies have you been pushing for lately which aren’t strictly party line or at least apologetic to the strict party line?
My economics beliefs are Marxist, CV. That hasn’t changed in 30 years. However, we’re not in a pre-revolutionary situation, so for practical reasons I restrict myself to pushing stuff that might be achievable in the society we actually live in.
eg. Immediate living wage. Lift benefit payments, inflation linked to the living wage. End company/corporation tax avoidance. Worker representation on company boards. Worker majority on safety committees, with enforcement authority. Tobin tax. No sales to offshore land buyers, lease only. Compulsory collective agreements across a company (ie not branch or SBU based). Nationalise all strategic assets.
I could go on, but that’s not actually the point. I do what I can, as an individual, but I respect the right of the wider party to set policy that is realistic and achievable in the current environment. I try and base my judgements and analysis on what is actually happening, not on what I’d like to be happening.
Hope this gives you some perspective on where I’m coming from.
Yep I certainly think that this is important, and has greatly improved over recent times via constitutional change.
Yep, and you deserve plenty of credit for your own contribution to the process, CV.
@ TRP
The things you hope the left will achieve won’t be achieved if Labour do not start showing some focus toward those aims including discipline in their conduct.
Fact: The left requires those who swing between National and Labour to swing back to Labour.
Fact: The left also requires those who are disenfranchised and have given up on voting to vote left. Mana should appeal to many of these people.
Whilst I understand and accept that there is a need for Labour to distance themselves somewhat from Mana/Internet – in order to not put off the more conservative type of left voter, the distancing should not be done too firmly otherwise this will put off the other type of voter that Labour/the left have lost: the disenfranchised people.
There is a very fine balance to achieve here with the left-wing and I really don’t think your post contains the fine understanding required to achieve that balance.
Here is ‘realistic’ for you: The left is extremely diverse and if we can’t be inclusive – especially of those most damaged by how our country is being run – we may as well give up and hand the ‘victory’ over to that small minority who actively benefit from the way things are now because that is effectively what we are doing by mentally wiping out some of the left-wing out of the very mistaken belief that they are not needed.
The next left-wing government will be well served by achieving a strong majority – that is what we need to be aiming for, it is eminently achievable yet only if the value of inclusive attitudes are realised.
and you think nz first is the better vehicle for yr stated political-wants/beliefs..
..than int/mana..?
..much of what you have stated..is int/mana policies..f.f.s..!
No I don’t think that, Phil. Though, in some areas, NZF has policies I agree with (farm sales/foreign ownership etc.).
I want to see a Labour led Government. Whether you like it or not, that is more achievable with the Greens and NZF. Not because of any particular fault in mana policy (most of which I do indeed agree with), but because of the relative ease of shifting a percentage of current National supporting votes toward any of those three parties if they distance themselves from mana.
That’s in contrast to the extreme difficulty of picking up swinging voters if mana (which swing voters perceive as a negative) are too closely aligned with Labour. This is why Key was banging on about a Labour/Greens/NZF/ mana government this morning, even when Cunliffe and Peters have specifically ruled it out. National need fear of mana to stop the soft centre shifting left.
Remember, all that is needed is for the right camp to fall below 48% and they cannot form a Government based on the current arrangement. That’s only a couple of points away. The brutal maths of the thing is that mana/IP in offers less than mana/IP out.
This would be different if there was a real ‘time for a change’ mood in the electorate. I see some signs of that, but it’s not as deep or widely felt as it needs to be for the middle ground to give mana a go.
“The brutal maths of the thing is that mana/IP in offers less than mana/IP out.”
You don’t mean maths, you mean chance. The brutal maths shows that Labour’s actions might give the election to Key. You appear to rate the chance that the left might win by one seat as being way less than any other option. Hence Labour being willing to risk losing us the election by Davis gaining the TTT seat. It’s a gamble, just be honest about it.
It’s also ideological. There is a long way between Mana supporting on C and S, and Labour and Mana being ‘close’ in a way that scares swing voters. Cunliffe should have stuck to his original stance that he would talk to any party after the election that wanted to change the govt, and tha we should let all voters have their say on the day.
That might increase the NZF vote of course, which in turn would lessen Labour’s power, so let’s also be honest that Labour is trying to balance the good of the party with the good of the country. I don’t envy you lot.
“Cunliffe should have stuck to his original stance that he would talk to any party after the election that wanted to change the govt, and tha we should let all voters have their say on the day.”
Exactly. This is politics and the voters determine the outcome although the dealing must and will be done when the results are in.
Personally I am okay with labour shoring up their middle – they have to wrest it from the gnats by being a little bit different but not too much and that is a no-win scenario imo.
Kelvin can go hard up north and I’m cool with that but the dirty tricks? nah he’ll get hammered now even worse than his previous efforts.
IMP are going for their votes and those votes will come and when they do it is an absolute certainty that labour will come calling. This whole post is really just a positioning document and that is good too – but the positive will win out not the negative.
@ Weka
I agree especially re ‘Cunliffe should have stuck to his original stance’
That latest statement Cunliffe made* just sounded too strong against IMP re ‘not any part of a government I lead’. This is something that he is likely to have to backtrack on and has put him in a weak position not least because it will seem like he has completely deceived the voting public and he can easily be attacked for that – with good reason too.
I didn’t mind his previous comments – no ministerial positions – it was that last statement that repelled me – it sounded too categorical.
link *
http://tvnz.co.nz/breakfast-news/david-cunliffe-we-don-t-want-become-tenants-in-our-own-country-video-6046681
and let’s imagine the shit that’s going to rain down on DC if he does have to deal with the IMP post-election.
“and let’s imagine the shit that’s going to rain down on DC if he does have to deal with the IMP post-election.”
+1000 Why has Labour not considered this scenario? It is clear that they haven’t.
lol probably goff will be back as leader after that one…
they probably have bl, and deemed it acceptable risk.
I was thinking it would be more a chipping away at Labour over time kind of thing, rather than a leader replacement. If Labour get to form govt I can’t imagine they would replace DC, but I can see the set up from the right (including within Labour) where the IMP will now be a constant stick to beat DC with.
Trotter has a take on this on TDB too, he seems to think that there will be voters (presumably swing ones) who will be surprised that IMP are needed to support a Labour govt post-election without actually being part of govt themselves.
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/08/06/no-cookies-but-maybe-the-balance-of-power-why-kelvin-davis-and-the-labour-right-are-so-scared-of-internet-mana/
Good link thanks weka – I agree with trotter in many ways in that post although with slightly less flowery language 🙂
so let’s say we see a surge in support for int/mana in the polls..
..showing a clear lab/grns/int/mana option..
..will you then change yr stance..?
can i take yr silence as a ‘no’..?
..and if so..it puts all yr stated reasonings/objections to the sword…eh..?
Good post TRP, amazing what you miss on a night off.
Some interesting observations among the predictable diatribes from the usual mip suspects.
I see Bomber is spending his days smearing Davis as “Camerons slaters new best mate”.
What a tool
Take the shilling and all that.
Like hh, kimmy gets what he pays for.
“Labour have reasons not to trust mana.”
I don’t agree with this at all and the reason you stated is disingenuous. Hone walked on principle not because of any failing on his part. The truth imo is that labour don’t trust anyone, let alone Mana or the Greens and the reason they don’t is that they want to hold the power to themselves – very retro and not a way to move forward.
Kelvin has gone to the dirty tricks because he is desperate – with good reason.
I agree, that description of why Harawira left the Mp is misleading and self-serving. Good summation marty, Labour is still old school and doesn’t want to share unless it is forced to. Hence the multiple times that TRP uses ‘almost’ phrases. Labour ‘might’ pull this off, but hey ho, if they don’t there’s always next time. Better the opposition than sharing the left with other lefties.
+1 Marty Mars
+1 Weka
“They can only achieve their stated aim of bringing down the National led Government by supporting a Labour led alternative.”
Yes and IMP are campaigning on that. They not only are trying to bring non-voters in but they are solidly supporting whatever left arrangement likely to be in play. That apparently is not the ideology wanted – why?
“The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour/Greens/NZF combined nudging the bare minimum numbers needed to form the next Government.”
bare minimum indeed – firstly I know you think winnie will fall left but I really cannot see that and I think to pin the hopes on that is flimsy especially when a genuine left party is also there getting votes. Winnie is not left imo.
More to the point, if Labour form the next government with just a 2-3 seat majority, it will most likely be a weak, one term government.
Yep – I really wonder about the vision of some of these politicians – it really seems they are just short-term lookers without the ability to think beyond the next election date or 3 year cycle.
btw tat mate you should have been on this IMP bus – are you going to the dunners show?
Yes I am. NB I was a given a chance to join IMP during its formation last year 😛
CV
Good to read that you’ll be along; say hi if you see me handing out enrollment forms or similar in the lobby beforehand.
I haven’t been keeping up with every post on the site, so hope I’m not repeating someone else here, but this VoteChat interview of Laila Harre is well worth the watch if you’ve got a spare 3/4 of an hour. I viewed it in brief chunks over the course of the week as I had time and am just going back now to join it all up in my mind:
That was recorded last Friday, before Cunliffe’s recent repudiation of IMP MPs. I like the way the IMP parliamentary candidates don’t plan to confine their activities solely to the debating chamber, and nearby bars. Hone Harawira has certainly provided an example in how he’s been out on the frontlines of the Auckland housing protests.
Labour may well come to regret not taking the opportunity to put a ministerial leash upon the IMP MPs
definitely, will say hi if I see you there.
Ha, well put. Yes did watch the Vote Chat thanks, Laila Harre was very good on it, every step of the way she pushed back at questions which tried to place her into political economic framing that she did not agree with.
yes I know but no regrets I’m sure – that may change after the meeting 🙂
chur 😈
That is a good point CV,
Labour should be aiming at a resounding majority – not just scraping through.
Attacking one’s friends won’t achieve that.
Nor will categorical exclusion of friends.
Trying to appeal to one’s sworn enemies won’t either
And lack of discipline in the biggest left-wing party is a big obstacle to that aim.
Get these basics right, however and we have a perfectly good chance to achieve a resounding success.
Agree that ideally Labour would not be aiming for the narrow win. Especially given how vacuous and inept the Government has been this year – including multiple casualties eg Banks etc. – Labour should by all rights be polling around their David Cunliffe highs of 35%-38%. The fact that there is a five to ten point deficit from that suggests to a lot of issues which need sorting.
“Labour should be aiming at a resounding majority – not just scraping through.”
And
“…ideally Labour would not be aiming for the narrow win.”
What planet do you two live on?
Polling 25% and you’re daydreaming of resounding majorities. While your leader excoriates IMP in favour of Winston Peters.
Time to close down Labour?
@ Lurgee,
I think there might be a misunderstanding and I can see how you may have misread what I said by the way I worded it.
I was not considering Labour solely when I wrote that about a ‘resounding win’ – I was meaning the left – Labour/ (& the left) needs to act in a way where the left gets the biggest possible vote – I really don’t think that comes about from dissing other leftwing parties – nor wiping a whole section of people that support the left.
I am referring to the way that people keep on counting up the numbers to 50% – actually I think it is entirely reasonable to aim at the left get something like 60% + and it would certainly be better than a slim majority.
I’m pretty supportive of all the left-wing parties. I think that the bitching and attacking being done within them and between them are most unhelpful. I guess you haven’t read any of my other comments or I guess you might have worked that out.
@ marty mars 11.16
Good sound questions there mm. Not rocket science either. Who are the guiders of Labour? Does anyone know them, and can they be named, and what is their kaupapa?
And have they a secret cunning plan? Send for Baldrick!
I agree with you, Blue Leopard. The big goal is to remove this government.
Our allies are those with the same goal.
Undermining allies makes no sense if they are to help us achieve a common goal.
Support your progressive party of choice and let’s build the momentum to make the change that this country needs. Let’s stop sweating the small stuff. I find the bickering drains away my energy. I’m sick of ABC conspiracy theories. We are going to take out National and we are going to do it TOGETHER!
Yep, amen to that, Tautoko Viper.
I wonder if Cunliffe see’s anyone as a partner. Interesting too the use of language. a “government HE leads”. The only way we stand a chance of having anything like a actual “change” in government in this country is through diversity. Lets not forget who started us down the road to social and economic failure back in the 1980’s. It wasn’t National but they were quick to jump on the bandwagon.
The idea of a Labour “led” government to me at least is just as appalling as a National led one. My hope it the vote will be split and Labour will be compelled to negotiate as its the only thing that will keep them honest and halt the TPPA and a raft of other social and economic horrors….
Kindly stop with the false equivalence, thanks. If you think Labour and National are morally equivalent, you haven’t been paying attention these past twenty years (and indeed for all its faults, the Fourth Labour Government did a lot of good for this country, as well as evil).