Poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:58 pm, September 12th, 2017 - 216 comments
Categories: election 2017, polls - Tags: , , , , ,

In other news – dig deeper Steven – please!

216 comments on “Poll tonight”

  1. We get what we deserve? Watch the snowflakes drift away over the next three years prove all hope and no planning brings them once more avalanches of excuses from Jacinda the tooth fairy

  2. Barfly 2

    Mmmm must get some popcorn

  3. AB 3

    Let’s hope for “terrifying and terminal”

  4. mickysavage 4

    I think Goldsmith is safe at 37%, just. Because the chances are they will lose Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Maungakiekie, Whanganui and as a bolter I think that Papakura could turn red.

    Such a result would really start to carve into National’s experience with Ngaro and Goldsmith both under threat.

    And I reckon there is a bit more vote for Labour somewhere. At 45% we would see the likes of Romy Udanga and maybe even Shannan Halbert elected.

    They would be great MPs.

    Interesting times …

    • Anne 4.1

      Yep. I’ve got my fingers, toes, eyes, legs, arms crossed for Romy. Can’t move.

    • alwyn 4.2

      What would the result be at these poll numbers.
      The bit you copied from Kiwiblog stops well before 47.
      Will Trevor Mallard make it if 37.8 turned out to be the Labour result.

  5. Below 35 for gnats i’d say or worse lol. Joyce has sunk them bad.

  6. Phil 6

    Ummmm… those terms could also apply to a poll showing the Greens being under 5%, right?

  7. ACT hit 1%?
    Metiria’s ahead in Te Tai Tonga?
    Peter Dunne ahead of Bill English for preferred Prime Minister?

  8. Patricia Bremner 8

    Let us do this. !!!!!!
    I’m dreaming of a Green/Red Christmas.

  9. Carolyn_nth 9

    NZF ahead of Nats – Peters preferred PM –

    preparing for #motherofalldevastations

  10. Andre 10

    35% should still feel pretty good to English. He knows what 22% feels like.

  11. lurgee 11

    Mana on 95%, everyone else fighting for the leftovers.

  12. SpaceMonkey 12

    Greens have increased to 7% while Labour increases to 45%. Labour-Greens can govern alone. National sinking even further. It’s game over for them.

  13. Sanctuary 13

    As long as Red and Green = 61, I am happy.

  14. Nick 14

    ‘Shock and Awe’ is used already damn….. ‘Labour and Green’ has a better ring to it anyway.

  15. Union city greens 15

    Of course “dramatic and devastating” could apply to the greens and labour, but for fun in the lull before the storm, in the absence of fact, a big part of me is hoping it’s really bad news for Goldsmith. Mostly because we would then have the perverse potential for the shock scenario of the turd actually having to campaign for his electorate seat to stay on the tax payer gravy train, or risk taking one for the team to get Seymour in at his expense.

    That would be fun. Heh

  16. Glenn 16

    “Mummy I’m scared.”

  17. Carolyn_nth 17

    Apparently right wing twitter and PR types who maybe have leaks available are claiming a Nat revival.

    Tweet from Bill Ralston:

    I think tonights TV3 poll will show that the two Colmar Brunton polls were rouge. I’ll take a guess at TV3’s – National 43%, Labour 37%.

  18. red-blooded 18

    It would be unusual to have two rogue polls (although I guess the fact that they were both from the same outfit makes it slightly less extreme as a possibility).

    Let’s remember that Ralston is deep blue, though. Grain of salt…

  19. cleangreen 19

    Just heard on newshub the Farmers are building a next wee long nz wide demonstration as they want to be treated fairly.

    • Ian 19.1

      Correct. The water tax is labours $ 11 billion hole. No one likes the politics of envy. My faith in Kiwis has been restored at least till the next poll.

      • Carolyn_nth 19.1.1

        And “the politics of envy” means what in this context?

        You know…. in contrast with not wanting to see loads of homeless and queues at food banks, while the environment is trashed for the future?

        Right wingers are really funny when they roll out their tired spin lines, that totally miss left wing motives.

    • Bill Drees 19.2

      Farmers never vote Labour. Not since the days of PM Massey.
      Let the the Natz rark up farmers on water charges and rark up those who rely heavily on the absence of a capital gains tax. Most of those are solid Natz voters.
      City dwellers and PAYE workers won’t feel any pity for them.
      The City v Rural divide can be played to Labour’s advantage.

  20. Carolyn_nth 20

    https://twitter.com/avancenz/status/907484432373710848

    Nats on 47.3% labour 37.8% …and greens 4.9% in Newshub poll.

    NZF 6%

    • DoublePlusGood 20.1

      What. The. Fuck.

    • Ad 20.2

      This show is not over.

      Stop debating who gets in or out.

      Stop debating who might get cabinet positions.

      Futile and premature.

      Jacinta is awesome but it will take everyone who wants the government changed to work the turnout.

      Just work.

      • Steve Wrathall 20.2.1

        Yes, go out and tell voters why a small family firm must pay CGT while someone in a $5 million “family home” won’t. I mean, that is Labour’s policy, isn’t it. Ardern certainly won’t rule it out.

        • Ad 20.2.1.1

          The people most likely to vote are older, with assets.

          The Labour messaging on tax needs hammering and reinforcing: those people vote.

        • weka 20.2.1.2

          If it’s policy then you will be able to link to it. If it’s not, then stop telling lies.

          • David C 20.2.1.2.1

            weka.
            the whole problem is that there is no link, no policy, no honesty.

            The public cant see it so dont trust it, and tonights results reflect this.

            Taxcinda has peaked.

      • Tracey 20.2.2

        Jacinda

      • tracey 20.2.3

        Lots of focus on where the spending promised by nation since perfu is coming from, tomorrow?

        6 rises in petrol taxes and 12 other taxes besides.

        Where is the media crush to see Nats plan and costing?

    • Ed 20.3

      One poll 39% …..another 47% .
      Quite a range for National Party.
      Who to believe?

      • Ad 20.3.1

        Fuck the polls and mobilise.

        • alwyn 20.3.1.1

          Where is Jim Bolger when we want an accurate opinion on the polls.
          As Jim said in 1993.
          “Bugger the pollsters”.

        • Steve Wrathall 20.3.1.2

          Mobilise in support of what? Policies that are either being withheld (tax) or grossly unfair-taxing today’s poor to fund the education of tomorrow’s rich (lawyers etc)

          • Ad 20.3.1.2.1

            The wealthy will get taxed more, and it will be spent on health and children.

            There you go.

            Vote to be taxed more if you are rich.

  21. Infused 21

    These comments are funny

  22. Ian 22

    Never,ever underestimate the common sense of Kiwi voters.

    • DoublePlusGood 22.1

      I have for at least a decade now assumed that Kiwi voters are, as a whole, complete morons.
      This assumption is consistently validated by the available evidence, and the next government being National-led would only confirm my assumption further.

      • Ian 22.1.1

        So be it. At least jacinda has provided her followers with a few Che moments to slobber over.
        Knuckle down comrades,still got 10 days to con Joe average.

  23. Patricia Bremner 23

    How likely is this result, given past performances??

    How accurate were the hub compared to others in the past?

    This is sad if correct.

  24. Pat 24

    ‘The Newshub Reid Research poll surveyed 1000 voters, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11921527

  25. phillip 25

    whens the next one news poll out

    its a dramatic shift from the tv1 poll in such a short period of time

    • mary_a 25.1

      Phillip @ (25) … yes it’s that dramatic shift in numbers that concerns me as well, considering the previous polling was the CB poll last Thursday, if my memory serves me right! In such a short space of time, there’s been a considerable percentage movement both ways for both Labour and National!

      • lprent 25.1.1

        …considering the previous polling was the CB poll last Thursday

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017

        They didn’t overlap in their sampling period (see below). So any messaging that was in the new period wouldn’t necessarily blend in. The problem is that it could just as easily be a sampling issue. We won’t know until we see one or more polls over roughly the same or later period.

        Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97] 1-5 Sep 2017
        One News Colmar Brunton[98][99] 2–6 Sep 2017
        Newsroom-SSI[100] 4–6 Sep 2017
        Newshub Reid Research[101][81] 6–11 Sep 2017

  26. Liberal Realist 26

    Just another poll, although this one looks possibly a bit rogue?

    Will be interesting to see how the other up and coming polls line up against this one…

  27. Tanz 27

    Yay, National on for the win. Am voting NZ First, but go Nats!!

  28. Robert Guyton 28

    “And when he came to the place where the wild things are, they roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws till Max said, “Be still” and tamed them with the magic trick of staring into all their yellow eyes without blinking once.”

    • alwyn 28.1

      I won’t put the quote up directly Robert but I’m sure you remember it
      https://thestandard.org.nz/iammetiria-for-nzer-of-the-year/#comment-1367570
      Tell me again that it isn’t so.

      • WILD KATIPO 28.1.1

        L0L- They are trying so ever hard to use the Greens as a weapon to attack Labour .

        But alas, … there’s a reason why John Key left early , – and it wasn’t just because of Pike River , Dirty Politics and Operation Burnham, either…

        Now wheres that jolly old Jason Ede ?

        And just HOW did Bill English get the nickname the Double Dipper from Dipton again?

    • Rosemary McDonald 28.2

      “Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
      Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
      All mimsy were the borogoves,
      And the mome raths outgrabe.

      Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
      The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
      Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
      The frumious Bandersnatch!”

      He took his vorpal sword in hand:
      Long time the manxome foe he sought —
      So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
      And stood awhile in thought.

      And, as in uffish thought he stood,
      The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
      Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
      And burbled as it came!

      One, two! One, two! And through and through
      The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
      He left it dead, and with its head
      He went galumphing back.

      And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
      Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
      O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!’
      He chortled in his joy.

      Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
      Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
      All mimsy were the borogoves,
      And the mome raths outgrabe.”

  29. Adrian 29

    Never underestimate the power of a really good lie.

  30. red-blooded 30

    We’ve got to double down and work harder. Don’t be complacent and don’t attack or criticise partners in the MOU. We shouldn’t be fighting each other – the bigger fight is by no means over.

    • cleangreen 30.1

      Red-blooded is right-

      I was elated when in 2015 I saw labour, Greens and NZ First get together around a dinner table in a TV debate to settle differences and after that ‘meeting of the minds’ the headlines were “A government in waiting” as they all settled their scores.

      Now we know that all the backbiting between these three parties goind on now is unsettling the whole voter base.

      So the three parties now need to hold another meeting again and work out their differences, as time is short and solidarity will save the day now not this divisiveness.

      “United we stand divided we fall”

      • James 30.1.1

        I have a parachute if you need…

        • WILD KATIPO 30.1.1.1

          Wouldn’t do any good, … like Joyce and his bogus ‘hole’ ,.. its got a hole in it.

          And besides, why the need for a parachute when the Left has got the plane airborne and on course for its Government in waiting objective?

    • billmurray 30.2

      red-bloodied;
      Sorry, but the MoU is the causation factor.

      • WILD KATIPO 30.2.1

        Here’s the one I wanted,- prime example of an oblique attack on Labour by trying to discourage the MOU , and the Greens. Problem is for the RWNJ’s ,…, Greens are still very much in the race. And so is Labour.

  31. Anne 31

    The result suggests the ‘Labour taxes everything that moves’ strategy might be working.

    What is the matter with the average voter? Are they so thick they can’t see the Nats are lying? Are they too lazy to check the facts for themselves?

    Jacinda Ardern needs to go negative sometimes. Call the Nats out! Tell the voters you’re being had… they’re fooling you with lies etc. etc. Relentless positivity goes only so far. And it just might have reached its tipping level.

    • Reality 31.1

      Anne, agree that Jacinda needs to switch to more of an attack mode. National needs to be reminded of their dirty politics, lies, nastiness …. And to show she means business.

      • Anne 31.1.1

        Its not National that needs to be reminded… its the voters who need to be reminded of the Dirty Political Nat Party’s MO.

        I agree with DoublePlusGood @22.1. A lot of voters are political morons with very short memory spans.

    • Steve Wrathall 31.2

      Nats are lying? Well all that Labour needs to do to show this is release its tax policy. Otherwise don’t be surprised of voters fill in the gaps for themselves. You’ll have no-one but yourselves to blame.

      • tracey 31.2.1

        Can you link to the independent costing of nats spending promises up to an including today? Perfu is NOT the same thing btw.

      • NewsFlash 31.2.2

        Mate, National are professional LIARS, been doing it for 9 yrs, lied on GST, lied on water quality, lied on Canterbury Environmental council, lied on emission reductions, lied about prison privatization, lied about housing……….just more lies

        • WILD KATIPO 31.2.2.1

          Lied about there being a housing crisis , lied about homeless numbers , tax havens , suicide numbers ,… but hey !

          They run a ‘ Rockstar Economy ‘ !

          Apparently.

          Too bad the OECD virtually said they lied about wages being so low in their ‘Rockstar Economy” , however … my oh my , – someone must have been raking it in all these years,

          And I’m damn sure it wasn’t the family’s sleeping in their cars because rents were too high….

          And , jilly jolly , … wheres that Jason Ede character?

          And whats happening with the Todd Barclay kiddie?

  32. cleangreen 32

    Best ask Winston on this as he has seen the polls go up and down all the time and knows how they move around.

    I feel more secure with being informed by a long serving MP that has been around since 1984 when the new Labour Government with a dark side of Rogernomics in mind rolled into town that ruined the labour trust in all voters.

    Winston spoke in a two hour public meeting in Gisborne today about how he entered the political stage then.

    Winston said he was so worried for NZ’s future then as a lawyer that he entered politics to save NZ.

    When now armed with this sharp Reid poll (correction) (yet to be confirmed is compared with the upcoming Coleman Brunton poll due end of the week we will know the trend, but we should monitor what Winston’s reaction is firstly, I think that is wise.

    • red-blooded 32.1

      Winston says all sort of rubbish. I sure as hell won’t be basing my opinion on any significant matter on what Mr Peters manages to say (or avoid saying).

  33. greg 33

    voters don t want change there happy the way the country is.
    sorry youth people you cant have a home the baby boomer’s have reasserted there power

  34. mary_a 34

    Unbelievable!!! Having a massive WTF moment right now! What the hell has happened?

    • boggis the cat 34.1

      Nothing, or very little, probably.

      Polls are never exact measures.

    • Redgenz 34.2

      People realised that Jacinda has no answers and no policies.

      • tracey 34.2.1

        People fell for joyces lies as he hoped they would. Link me to the independent costing of Nats spending promises which have been raining like confett? TIA.

      • WILD KATIPO 34.2.2

        No , TV3 and their patron Saint Stephen Joyce who once owned TV3 got together and realized that if they didn’t include the undecideds they could skew the votes to make it look like National is now at 47 %.

        L0L !

        More bullshit from Joyce and Co , – its almost as fanatical as Joyce’s ‘ hole’ , – I’m surprised Joyce doesn’t go the full Monty and stage a fanatical Banzai charge armed with a floppy dildo and attack all the other polls that show this is a rogue one , – and a dishonest one at that !

  35. Glenn 35

    Could help the left in a reverse way. This sort of poll will make voters wavering between The Greens and Labour swing their vote back to the Greens and get Greens back into the race.
    Labour has dropped 1.6% and the poll is probably a rogue one anyway. Again it can only help to get some folk off their arses and to the polling station.

    If this poll is as accurate as the ones in the recent UK and US elections we’ve got nothing to worry about.

    I always have more faith in Colmar Brunton than Reid and bugger all faith in Roy Morgan.

  36. Pat 36

    nothings changed…same fight, same protagonists, same polling day…get a grip

  37. Labour_Voter 37

    Not impressed with the TV3 poll results. Not sure of the validity of this poll.

    • NewsFlash 37.1

      Its a bullshit poll to try and put National in front, pretty strange really after seeing the TURNOUT for Bill on the campaign trail over the weekend, one meeting only had a handful of supporters, the poll is a deliberate attempt to skew peoples opinions, you only need to look at the individuals running 3 and you’ll realise the truth, a real poll is coming.

  38. Eco maori 38

    Fact there has been a lot of publicity about our homeless and bad schools hospital waiting list so long that people are dyeing all this on MSM.
    Fiction the read research poll showing bill and national climbing in the polls.
    Everyone ignore this bull shit poll bill And national have only made stuff ups since the last poll and he magically rises what a load of carp. If bill had achieved something astounding in the last week I would believe the polls but all they have achieved is show everyone that they are pissing in the wind trying to sling shit at Labour. We are not idiots we can see right through this farcical poll gemmon nationals desperate
    And on the ropes the poll that matters the most is the election so everyone please vote.

    • Eco maori 38.1

      This poll will rally all of the left voters to get out and vote. Even john key new he could not win this election that’s why he bailed out on national. I will more to write on nzfrist later.

    • Steve Wrathall 38.2

      Bad schools? then why not pay good teachers more , like ACT want? Labour just today stole ACT’s policy of expanding the Urban limit, so plenty more where they came from

      • tracey 38.2.1

        Is the sky blue on your planet

      • NewsFlash 38.2.2

        Its a bullshit poll, no one turned out to see Bill over the weekend, desperation has set in for the Nats

      • DoublePlusGood 38.2.3

        If ACT wanted to pay good teachers more, then they’d actually support the teacher’s union and pay teachers more.

      • WILD KATIPO 38.2.4

        There’s a few rotting schools up in Northland , so I hear , … but apparently , like Simon Bridges bridges ,- the Nats are going to look into it , – in a few hundred years time.

  39. ianmac 39

    The Morgan is due out in a day or so.

  40. Glenn 40

    Maybe it’s time to go negative to counter Nats negative campaign. Theres a lot of suffering going on in this country that needs to be brought out into the light.
    Positivity can only go so far. This is a war and those bastards have to be stopped otherwise ‘450 Texts Bill’ will screw our environment and our country.

    • cleangreen 40.1

      This poll looks like it has been assembled by Steven Joyce’s handiwork!!!!

      He has screwed up his mathematics figures before right?
      Call this poll “the Sjoyce poll”

      • mary_a 40.1.1

        Cleangreen @ ( 40.1) … I’m so pleased I’m not the only cynic around here. My first thought when I heard about this poll, was it had Joyce’s grubby scent all over it.

        Be interesting though to see how this one stacks up against future polls. It’s unbelievable really, that such a dramatic move in percentage points could occur in only five days, from when the last Colmar Brunton poll was released! It’s that point which is badgering me at the moment.

        • lurgee 40.1.1.1

          It isn’t ‘movement.’

          Polls are not exact. The previous poll (which we liked, and was hence deemed honest and true and fair) may have been a bit too high; this one (which we dislike, and so judged wicked and duplicitous and foul) may be a bit too low. Or maybe one is accurate and the other completely wrong.

          It’s absurd to imply reid research are producing polls to order for National. Why weren’t you saying the same about Colmar Brunton and Labour?

          • cleangreen 40.1.1.1.1

            lurgee

            Polls are very well known now globally to be manipulated so knowing the current ‘desperation national are under with all past polls sinking their boat it is not a stretch to believe they wouldn’t’ fake a poll right?

            Polls are notorious in wildly being inaccurate of late.

            Next poll a Morgan Poll in a day or two.

            • lurgee 40.1.1.1.1.1

              Oh, come off it.

              You need some evidence of actual manipulation of this poll, not vague mutterings about shadowy powers-that-be.

              • vague mutterings about shadowy powers-that-be ?

                Come on , man!

                Are you seriously asking us to believe that the biggest , loud mouthed giggling inanity that is called Dildo Joyce who produces magical budget ‘holes’ , – and who once owned TV3 , who has vast media contacts , and has been nominated Saint Joyce the patron Saint of media bailouts wouldn’t have slipped a few quiet words into the ears of how he’d like the poll to be run?

                He’s actually closely related to his colleague the Double Dipper in that regard, – having a few quiet words with the police in what he’d like released to the public in their report over the Todd Barclay affair…

                Give us a break.

                • Phil

                  Are you seriously asking us to believe that … Joyce… wouldn’t have slipped a few quiet words into the ears of how he’d like the poll to be run?

                  To use a popular left-wing phrase; follow the money.

                  Why would a private company that relies on demonstrating to its clients it can accurately and without bias poll public opinion on a wide range of issues, risk its entire business model for one fake political poll?

    • Redgenz 40.2

      What you need to realise is that there are a lot of us out there that don’t care about the suffering.

  41. Nah ,… there’s something scewiff about this. OK theres the tax issue, however people can see much of the policy, and have been told Labour is using a working group , yet we had Joyce straight out lying , – and getting caught out lying . And people didn’t appreciate his lies.

    I don’t we would see that much of a dramatic climb in National from 43 to 47 % when the trend was downwards. And then there’s the 45-39 % Labour thing. Very hard to place any real confidence in that poll result at all .

    • boggis the cat 41.1

      This does look like an outlier, with Newshub / Reid Research being off from the other polls. (Of course, they might be correct and all others wrong, but that is less likely.)

      This is a good chart to look at the trend:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017

      • Glenn 41.1.1

        Thanks for that. The Wikipedia chart certainly shows the trend. Unbelievable that this poll would go against the trend showing.

        • boggis the cat 41.1.1.1

          Not unbelievable. This organisation seems to have a probable bias baked into their polling.

          It happens.

          • WILD KATIPO 41.1.1.1.1

            Of course,… its called getting a financial bail out and installing ‘compatible’ CEO’s to get rid of pesky people like John Campbell under direction of the giggling idiot who once owned it.

        • Phil 41.1.1.2

          Unbelievable that this poll would go against the trend showing.

          Not unbelievable at all. Because forecasting turning points in trend data, solely from the data set, is literally not a thing you should ever do.

          What I mean is that, in polling, ‘momentum’ is one of those “conventional wisdom” things that doesn’t hold up to even the slightest statistical scrutiny. Just because your polling result has gone up in the last three or four polls, it doesn’t (in and of itself) change the probability that your next poll result will be ‘up’ again – it’s still basically a 50-50.

    • lurgee 41.2

      It’s just the sugar rush wearing off. People were excited about Ardern for a while, but may be rowing back a bit. It’s been six weeks. She’s old news now, not an interesting new toy. people’s interest is waning.

      (Also, people are starting to see her more as just another politician – she was pretty poor on Morning rpeort, not giving straight answers to questions about coal mines and Greens in cabinet. Obviously, that wouldn’t have affected this poll, but you get what I’m saying.)

      Or the poll is wrong. Who knows?

  42. TootingPopularFront 42

    Polls are used to shape public opinion, not to measure public opinion. Nothing has changed, Joyce lied, Bill supported him and they both got called out by all of the major economists in the country, Bill is lying about tax, Simon O’Connor has shown the soft underbelly of religious fanaticism in the National Party, Winston is being duplicitous about tax – this poll has been manipulated to give the impression that their lies have substance. Ignore this shit, particularly Paddy Gower, and assume that these last death spasms of Neoliberalism will be devious, mendacious, manipulative, National and Winston can’t help themselves.

    • Tony Veitch (not etc) 42.1

      Why we even tolerate, let alone listen to, a 12 year old so-called political journalist like Gower, is beyond my limited understanding.

      • WILD KATIPO 42.1.1

        Well , we used to listen to a 12 year old so called politician called Stephen Joyce until his schoolboy jokes about fiscal holes went a bit far….

  43. Ethica 43

    Six weeks ago this poll would have seemed amazing. And there is still a long way to go. Hopefully this poll will encourage some younger left voters get out and vote.
    The right has always had lots more money and media power. They are probably also now using expensive data analytics and fear tactics to target swinging voters. So we all have to talk to people and encourage them to (enrol and) get out and vote Labour/Greens.

    • lprent 43.1

      Hopefully. However as old and as cynical as I am, I will believe it when I see it.

      Just another poll. Good for making my CPU heat up 😈

      But bearing in mind that the polls 2 weeks out from the election last time showed National over 50% and Labour under 30%, this is quite a fall between elections.

      But the important result here is the lost votes if the Greens don’t get over 5%

    • Phil 43.2

      Hopefully this poll will encourage some younger left voters get out and vote.

      The recent example of the republican-leaning Georgia-6 congressional special election should be a useful case-study right now.

      When polls showed Ossoff (D) within striking distance of Handel (R) a whole lot of unenthusiastic republican voters found exactly the motivation they needed to get out the vote. I wonder if the same thing could be going with comparatively unmotivated ‘lean-National’ voters?

  44. Cinny 44

    Geez Gower sure talked up that poll, I guess it got everyone watching him on the telly lolz.

    Fascinating the difference between their polls and the ones coming out on the other network.

    People will be more shocked at Brian Bruces doco at 8.30pm on tv3 than they will be with Gowers over inflated news

  45. Craig H 45

    Anyone know what the confidence interval is? (not the margin of error, that’s 3.1%)

  46. boggis the cat 46

    Polling prior to the last election was a lot more uniform:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2014

    Look at the polling from August onward. There is relatively good agreement. Fairfax / Ipsos bounced around a lot until the final poll. This poll — Three News / Reid Research — did seems to be fairly consistent over this period at the last election.

    It is possible that there will be more volatility due to Ardern having galvanised Labour. A lot of this pick up in support seems to have been siphoned from the Greens, though, with the swing toward the left being fairly small overall.

    Roy Morgan should be the next major poll result, and that should establish whether this one was off significantly or not.

    • boggis the cat 46.1

      This is the same table of polls, for this election cycle:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017

      It is worth reviewing this before reacting to any one poll.

      (Ran out the edit clock on the above post.)

    • Anne 46.2

      Roy Morgan should be the next major poll result, and that should establish whether this one was off significantly or not.

      Not sure about that b t cat. RM have a reputation for bouncing around like a rubber ball.

    • lprent 46.3

      There is relatively good agreement.

      Not really. You’d have to not look at the results closely to see that. There was considerable bouncing around between different polls. Look at the Fairfax poll covering the same period as the Colmar Brunton 2 weeks out. One had National at 52% and the other at 46%. The Digipoll at roughly the same time had them as 48%.

      That is a 6 point spread for a single party in the same period between 3 polls using roughly the same techniques.

      This poll — Three News / Reid Research — did seems to be fairly consistent over this period

      The problem is that the world moves underneath their technique. What might have worked then may not be matching their sample population up with the real world now. In particular I’ve been getting more and more skeptical about all of these polls as the number of people I know who even have a landline phone goes down.

      These days the number of people who even answer voice calls on anything is dropping like a stone. My cell phone says that I answered 4 phone calls out of 10 for the whole of last month, and made only 6 calls, only two of which were answered. I made 60 text messages however.

      Polls these days largely target people who conservatively don’t change with the technologies.

      • boggis the cat 46.3.1

        Your point about technique and contact method is valid. I answered a Roy Morgan poll a few days ago, landline, but typically they would call earlier in the evening when I am still at work.

        One thing about polling is that this is able to shift the MSM talking points. It is the only way for the public to push back against that conservative, corporate view. Without polling the media would set the agenda and pick the winners, so I would rather have erratic polls than none.

        • lprent 46.3.1.1

          Yeah, the shift away from MSM is taking some time. I don’t get exposed to free-2-air TV any more because the ads irritated me and I wouldn’t hook up an aerial and I don’t exactly suck up a single source of news anymore – more like about 12 sources in the morning of varying opinions. And I’m way way behind the media spread of the young engineers at work.

          But we really need something that is better than these crappy sampling techniques developed in the 1950s and 60s. They are designed to sample people who still act like they living then. Conservative, don’t flex their hours, clinging to old tech, and not exactly in the 21st century. Not exactly a representative population.

      • JustPassingThrough 46.3.2

        https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html

        Summary: In 1936 pollsters incorrectly predicted Landon would win against Roosevelt. Reason – names of those to poll were taken from telephone directories etc and at the time telephones were something only the rich mostly had.

        So if the polls do turn out to be wrong due to outdated sample techniques it wouldn’t be the first time.

  47. Now twinkle toes dancing on the head of a pin on The Project is digging a hole as big as Joyce; looking over tired to continue playing Mr Robertson’s ventriloquist Dummy.

  48. Pat 48

    “RNZ’s updated poll – taking into account tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll and the Bauer Media Insights IQ poll – has the two major parties neck and neck.

    National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.

    New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, The Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.

    On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.”

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/election-2017/339271/newshub-poll-puts-national-out-in-front

    • alwyn 48.1

      I wonder whether RNZ will even mention this poll on Morning Report tomorrow?
      The last TV3 poll was completely ignored by the following day’s Morning Report.
      On the other hand the TV1 Poll was reported at the start of all the news headlines a couple of days later.
      I wonder if it was just a coincidence that TV3 had National ahead and TV1 leaned toward Labour?
      Somehow I don’t think so.
      I still don’t understand this result though.

      • Pat 48.1.1

        it’ll be mentioned..and analysed and they will look to the poll of polls and say its neck and neck….just like was last week…and they’ll probably comment how the Greens are still in a precarious position.

        ‘I wonder if it was just a coincidence that TV3 had National ahead and TV1 leaned toward Labour?
        Somehow I don’t think so.
        I still don’t understand this result though.”

        several factors leading to wilding swinging polls…samples are likely inconsistently representative. the disparities are usually within MoE and their methodologies differ….there is however no doubting the trend, and I’m still picking a change of government in a week and a half

  49. Hongi Ika 49

    Take out a cheap Insurance Policy vote NZ First they will do what is best for the country and hold both National & Labour to account ?

  50. Ross 50

    Jacinda Ardern was just on TV3 and interviewed Patrick Gower…he’s a dick lol

  51. Hongi Ika 51

    Could be the old dead cat bounce ? Before the big slide ?

  52. I was at my folks place last night when we got a telephone call asking if there were any people aged 35-45 in the house. When I asked who was calling , they replied it was a ‘survey’ being conducted for TV3.

    So if that was the tail end of the survey / poll ,… and if they were only asking for people aged 35 – 45 then that would slant the demographics somewhat. Or it could of been been a rotational age brackets thing done over the complete survey period as I assume they would take a sample over many age groups. Interesting anyways.

    • boggis the cat 52.1

      They would typically assess the responses, and try to get a representative sample. That age group may have been below the required number.

    • cleangreen 52.2

      I also was called by the same poll two years ago and when I said we were 60’s they hung up so Wild Katipo Reid pollsters like using mid lifers as a preference looks like here.

      • WILD KATIPO 52.2.1

        Mhmmm , makes one wonder for a bit …

      • chris73 52.2.2

        I did some polling work between jobs a few years ago and what we did is we asked the questions and took the age groups and then as the age groups filled up (generally older ones went first) we started having to be more selective otherwise most polls will be from the 50s upwards

    • cleangreen 52.3

      Yes Wild katipo,

      So this poll is rigged as it is targeted to certain ‘demographics only – mmmmmmm!!

  53. infused 53

    Labour’s issue will be questions like this.

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/bill-english-scaremongering-over-labour-inheritance-tax-jacinda-ardern.html

    Skip towards the end. She needs clear answers. Jacinda has been pretty good, but that was a shocker.

  54. Bill 54

    What percentage of those asked said they were undecided? (I can’t see that number from a quick flick through stuff)

    I’d warrant most potential National voters are decided – where the fuck else are they going to go? – and that a lot of undecided flux exists within the “not National” section of the vote.

    That skews any poll significantly – if and when a poll only tallies and turns into percentages those respondents who say that they have made a decision.

    edit – meanwhile, how many “not National” undecideds are going to knee jerk panic and rush to vote NZ Labour on the misatken understanding that The Green’s are dead in the water?

    • Certainly going to need the Greens now more than ever. But Chris Trotter wrote about getting out there and engaging people to grow the ‘ progressive ‘ by motivating new voters , pretty self explanatory , but man oh man it will be tight !

      • Bill 54.1.1

        I’ve just flung up a post on it. We’re being played.

        • Anne 54.1.1.1

          Yep. Its a ‘play’ alright. Funny ain’t it. I have a landline and I live in a true blue part of town and have been rung 4 times recently – the last one about an hour ago. Wrong demographic but they sure like to ring my part of town eh?

        • NewsFlash 54.1.1.2

          +1

          You’re right, it’s a BULLSHIT poll, I looked at the photos of Bills weekend campaign and there were almost no one there, very embarrassing for Bill, TV 3 still has no credibility, the real poll is not far away and will deliver a significant difference from the one pronounced today.

        • cleangreen 54.1.1.3

          Bill, I agree 100% we are being played by Joyce obviously.

    • JustPassingThrough 54.2

      “I’d warrant most potential National voters are decided – where the fuck else are they going to go? – and that a lot of undecided flux exists within the “not National” section of the vote.”

      ACT / NZ First.

      Right-wing undecideds will be swinging between ACT and National and centre-right undecideds will be swinging between National and NZF.

  55. Kat 55

    The poll headlines say “Jacinda has to sort it”….well pretty obvious move by the sycophantic MSM to produce a rogue poll that attempts to scare Jacinda into exposing details on tax and water policies to farmers before the election.

    Oh look another cabbage boat.

  56. Eco maori 56

    MSM yes our reaction to the polls was predictable and laughter is good for one’s Wairua. I bet the police did not predict what’s happening now I bet nobody predicted that bill english would be giving me and my fellow bloggers the heads up on National Television the fool.
    And nobody predicted that Nuk Korako
    would say to Shane Jones after the Marae screening Kia ora Shane sorry about rubbing you out earlier on (but really Nuk loved stealing some of Shane mana)
    Well Shane bill and I have a plan and if you and Winston help us with stealing some of Jacainda mana we will give you and Winston all the power you guys want.(But in reality we won’t give you shit fool we are neo liberals we all way cheat and lie fool) hence Winston and Shane being national attack idiots because every time national try to attack Jacainda it back fired on them so why not get some other fool to try and steal Jacainda mana Ka pai

  57. Pat 57

    was just surveyed by UMR

  58. Ian 58

    The country has woken up. Jacinda talks too fast and no one can understand what she is saying. But the Tax word registers with 80 % of kiwis.
    Try harder comrades,lets do it !

    • Thats right bud, 8 esteemed economists are wrong and Stephen Joyce didn’t lie.

      Sorry to burst your bubble , champ , but it appears the TV3 poll didn’t take into account the large numbers of undecideds , which ,… will be consolidating to either Labour or the Greens on September 23rd.

      And its at THAT point that its GAME OVER for the Naztional party ‘comrades’.

      The Bullshit « The Standard
      https://thestandard.org.nz/the-bullshit/

      • Ross 58.1.1

        Yep if there’s one thing the poll has hopefully done is to remind those on the Left that they need to vote. Complaining about the government won’t cut the mustard. Hopefully younger voters who were thinking of not voting might change their minds now.

        BTW I wouldn’t be surprised if National are polling higher than Labour but I suspect it’s closer than this poll. If National poll in the low 40s and have a lack of coalition options, Houston we could have a problem. 🙂

    • Incognito 58.2

      Slow down Ian, you’re typing too fast and making no sense to anybody. Why are you referring to furry fruits, BTW?

    • JC 58.3

      Troll! (Ian That is) .. have noticed his/her appearance here on TS only of late! i.e 3 weeks since the polls shifted to a Labour – Green Alliance!

      Please disregard the trolling from a failing government/party/system!

  59. mosa 59

    This election may deliver a hung parliament with both major parties tied.
    It will come down to a whisker.
    Tight as a drum.
    It might take weeks to reach a conclusion.

  60. NewsFlash 60

    Well, managed to get all the RWNJ out of in force after a glimmer of hope from an arguably misleading poll, the MSM has been pushing back hard, the real poll is not too far away, that’s the defining one.

    • Incognito 60.1

      They can’t help it, it’s their deeply engrained instinct to come out of the shadows as soon as they smell Red blood. And as soon as light is shone on them they falter and scatter back into their caves.

  61. cleangreen 61

    National = kings of phony polls.

    • lurgee 61.1

      You realise saying that without a shred of evidence makes you something of a bullmonger as well.

      • WILD KATIPO 61.1.1

        Oh,… I don’t know so much ,… there’s such a thing as circumstantial evidence ,… and this govt reeks of it year in year out…

        BTW , …. just WHERE is Jason Ede?

        • lurgee 61.1.1.1

          Circumstantial evidence means something more not wanting something to be real.

          Have you any evidence that Reid research have changed their methodology? That Steven Joyce took the person in charge of polling out to a really big dinner? That would be circumstantial evidence (just about).

          Do you really think Reid research are going to jeopardise their professional reputation – given they do loads of market research and political polls are just one tiny part of the operations – to skew an election?

          You’re just in shock because you’ve discovered polls can do funny things.

          Recall that in Britain, just days before the election, some polls were predicting the Conservatives were going to hammer Labour by 15%. That wasn’t down to deliberate malign action, it was down to pollsters having the wrong methodology.

    • JustPassingThrough 61.2

      Citation please.

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