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Polls and rogues

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , , ,

The most recent Roy Morgan was good news for the left:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 40.5% (down 3.5% since March 11-24, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 35.5% (up 1%); Greens are 13.5% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the Labour Party with minor party support would win an Election if held now.

Vernon Small, who seems to be well informed, commented:

The numbers for the three biggest party are in line with internal polling by Labour, a source said. But the party has been reluctant to publicly release the data, waiting first to see it the shift away from National is confirmed by two polls expected this weekend from TV3 and TVNZ.

Tonight the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll is roughly consistent with the Roy Morgan, but the TV3 Reid poll (no link yet and I’m off – someone add it in comments) paints a different picture. They can’t both be right (I think one of them is from planet Key).

Given that Roy Morgan and TVNZ (and if Small is correct internal polling) are compatible, I’m going to call the 3 News poll a rogue. (No doubt the political right will be trying to spin it the other way – I’ll be interested to see them try it!)

Note that sampling for these polls means that none of them will yet reflect any response to the Labour / Green electricity reform proposals.

 

[Updated by karol]  TV3 News poll.

99 comments on “Polls and rogues”

  1. logie97 1

    And Shearer’s apparent response… “… oh John Key is just talking out of his mouth…” in response to Key’s criticism of the Left. WTF.

    • BM 1.1

      Yeah, lol, he butchered that one.

      • Anne 1.1.1

        Yes, that was funny. Hate to agree with BM but there you go…

        It’s so obvious what he was about to say then thought better of it.

        What he should have said is: “John Key’s talking out of a hole in his head”.

        • BM 1.1.1.1

          Or even the non offensive
          “John Key’s talking out of his rear end again”

        • geoff 1.1.1.2

          If he’d actually said ‘John Key is talking out his arse’, it probably would have helped Labour in the polls

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.2.1

            +1

            There are half a million stay at home Labour voters out there waiting for proof that Shearer eats red meat.

          • Anne 1.1.1.2.2

            If he’d actually said ‘John Key is talking out his arse’, it probably would have helped Labour in the polls.

            TV news would have blipped it out… but on the other hand everyone would have known what he had said and that would have been a positive – except for the humourless. And who cares about them.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.2.2.1

              Not that you want to copy Key’s style…but Key’s shown that NZers know the difference between a light hearted remark and a presidential declaration

            • ianmac 1.1.1.2.2.2

              I assumed that Mr Shearer meant that Key “was talking out of his err… arse.” But swerved at the last moment to say “mouth.” Pretty clear to me – unless some want to put a negative spin whatever he says.

              • Colonial Viper

                We all know what Shearer apparently meant to say.

              • karol

                It’s all in the delivery. Shearer just looked as though he’d started to say something disparaging, then didn’t know how to finish it.

                If he’d delivered the line confidently, with a dramatic pause and a twinkle in his eye, he’d probably have scored with it.

                • Colonial Viper

                  The same line, hesitation and all, coming from Winston would have indeed worked

    • gobsmacked 1.2

      Labour and the Greens will win the election, unless they commit electoral suicide. Shearer IS that suicide.

      The satisfaction tonight lasted approximately three minutes. The One News poll was good, the 3 News less so, but even Key’s numbers were down in that one.

      Then … the alternative Prime Minister spoke, and the nation laughed.

      The voters are seeing through Key and National. Their support is fading. All the opposition needs is a leader, not an embarrassment. David Shearer, if you care about your country and your people, please do the right thing. Soon.

    • Aotearoean 1.3

      For fuck’s sake

    • felix 1.4

      Did I ever tell you about the man who taught his asshole to talk? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJ-p1wGv5rw

    • Enough is Enough 1.5

      There is the issue.

      Lets jump forward 14 months to the election debates.

      This country is depending on Shearer in what will be a series of the most important debates this country has ever had.

      Shearer under the blow torch from a desperate Key and a hostile media.

      Can we trust him to actually articulate a sentence in the English language or deliver a punchline. How is he going to sell an image for the future without Russel holding his hand.

      Shall we just give him another 6 months???

      Seriously this is too importnant for you to fuck up Shearer. SHARPEN UP

  2. ghostrider888 2

    Yep.
    Colmar Brunton
    N-43(worst polling in 7 years)
    L-36
    G-13
    (62 Seats to Lab / Green)

    Reid Rubbish
    N-49
    L-3O.2
    G-11.5

    yet Key down 5 in the C.B and down in the Reid

    • Paul 2.1

      Links?

    • Colonial Viper 2.2

      yet Key down 5 in the C.B and down in the Reid

      Did Shearer move up in the Reid?

      • gobsmacked 2.2.1

        No. Shearer’s numbers aren’t up in either poll.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1

          CB says a massive 26% now undecided as to who they want to be PM. They aren’t going to Shearer.

          • QoT 2.2.1.1.1

            Nah, give him six more months.

            Again.

          • vto 2.2.1.1.2

            That is a stat to watch. Methinks it reflects even greater numbers of people who have cottoned onto Key’s lies and his snake oil salesman ways. They don’t trust him and see that he is simply a bullshitter but they haven’t yet solidified their support away from the Nats yet. When they do (and they will because Key is unable to stop lying and talking bullshit) the numbers for the Nats will plummet. 2c

    • McFlock 2.3

      9% diffesrences between polls ?
      I’ll lean towards the more regular and less biased one.
      Which isn’t reid research.

  3. Reid Research have always been a bit of an outlier favouring the Government.

    As a humble activist can I say I am really pleased with the last week’s poll results. The Government is on the slide and you can see it in the desperation that has entered Key’s manner.

    • Anne 3.1

      Yes, he’s now trying to present Labour as the far Left. Said it three times. Is that their election campaign strategy? Reminds me of those photos of the Mars terrain. Barren and lifeless.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        What the hell is up with National lately? Have they not paid their Crosby Textor invoice?

        • karol 3.1.1.1

          Yes, Key and supporters should be careful – they could end up giving socialism and the “far left” a good name.

  4. Craig Glen viper 4

    The polls are what they are what Labour needs to do is have Shearer go on the attack.
    On TV 3 tonight his thinking on his feet attack line was ” Key speaks out his mouth”
    Really David Shearer that was the best you could come up with? What about some comment about Keys lack of memory or the probability that he will need to make a statement of clarification tomorrow.
    Oh no thats right you cant cos you forgot about that bank account, oh well you did your best then ( yawn)

    • Mary 4.1

      It’s gaffes like this one that shows Shearer isn’t up for the job. Just watch him get ribbed to death over it when they’re back in the House next. This one mightn’t be too serious but it’s just a matter of when not if he makes far more serious clangers when he’s PM. He’s just too much of a risk. His legacy as a bumbling buffoon has been established even before he’s started in the job. Labour need to ditch him now while there’s time. Look at the mess Labor’s in at the moment with Gillard and an election looming. We’ll be in the same position very soon.

  5. One can only imagine, with Key imploding like he is, what numbers Labour would be getting with a proper leader, worthy of the title.

    Still very much fail territory for camp abc.

    • ghostrider888 5.1

      that is a very broad conclusion A. (concede, DS is a little slow thinking on his feet by appearances; Gareth Hughes was faster)

  6. Mike 6

    It probably wasn’t the best that Shearer came up with, rather it was the five second soundbite that the editor of the piece chose to use from the minutes of footage they had,because it served their narrative.
    TV1 did a similar thing for Key by showing the footage of the Nathan Guy and electric fence incident.

    • ghostrider888 6.1

      that is an interesting consideration Mike

      • Craig Glen viper 6.1.1

        Bullshit Ghostrider he should never give a shit comment for them to use if that is indeed the case. When are people going to wake up Labour are not going to win with Shearer he is an idiot, a gimp. Shearer will fall over his own bloody shadow at any given moment and Keys going thank God they have Shearer.

    • karol 6.2

      Yes, there’s always that. But it means not giving them the option of using a lame line.

  7. Paul 7

    Mike’s comment reminded of the documentary Shadows of Liberty at the documentary festival. The media is owned by big corporates and the left should not be relying on it to provide an unbalanced story. Spokespeople for the left should, especially when dealing with journalists with a clear right wing bias, take on these puppet hosts and not be too timid.
    Once in power, reform of the media should be an urgent priority to undo the damage caused to democracy by the media falling into the hands of large corporations.

    • gobsmacked 7.1

      Fair enough, but irrelevant to Shearer’s problem. You can listen to his full interviews online (eg Bfm, Radio Live, Firstline). The incoherence is not isolated, it’s the norm. It’s who he is.

      He may be a great guy but his brain isn’t wired for communication, any more than my body is wired for ballet. Labour can face that now or later. But face it they must.

      • Paul 7.1.1

        I agree with you. Indeed, knowing that the media is likely to be hostile, makes it even more important that the party leader(s) are strong and united, strong, fluent and stick to principles.
        Labour need someone as coherent and as on message as Norman.
        It is something that needs to be faced in 2013, not 2014.

  8. Michael 8

    “Bugger the pollsters” – surely Jim Bolger’s only enduring contribution to NZ’s political history. IMHO, polling is becoming steadily less reliable, for a variety of reasons. At most, I think polls can only provide a rough guide to the electorate’s political sentiments. Anyway, good politics is about leading public opinion, not following it.

      • Alanz 8.1.1

        The current Labour leadership seems to be opting for fumbling and stumbling after public opinion (the mumbling is now under a bit of better control and has modified into a slight hesitant pause).

  9. jaymam 9

    If TV3 had wanted to appear competent, they should have mentioned that the other two recent polls disagreed completely with their poll.
    In fact TV3 made such a bad job of tonight’s news I might change to watch TV1.
    Unfortunately the lead item was the same on both channels.

    • karol 9.1

      Agreed. I thought Gower’s attempt to treat the 3 News poll as though it was hard evidence of the state of the parties, while TV One were doing the same with a different poll result, showed just how lame his whole polling PR was.

      • ghostrider888 9.1.1

        yes it was like a game of two laughs; when switched to 3 it was a laugh at Reid research and the earnest eeling of Patrick Gower; he is definitely a shocker to be on the main source of info-tainment for the majority.

        • North 9.1.1.1

          Mr Bean’s cousin Gower urgently pretends to the 7 pm spot occupied by that real journalist the polished Campbell. Fancies he will achieve that spot by aggressive waving-on of his employer’s latest fart. Just look at the “TV3 and me are part of this story” antics of the little puppy.

          As for example when he presumed to lay down his personal bottom line and unashamedly declare, and in following days reiterate, his personal anger about the report re Shane Jones’ Chinese immigrant guy. WTF ? Who gives a toss about whatever itchy discomfort registers at the front confluence of the leg parts of your cheap suit kiddo ?

          A dreadfully un-telegenic and unappealing nothing is Mr Bean’s cousin – what with that slightly crazed , weirdly urgent “breaking-news” look about him, served up with shockingly sham attempts at gravitas. John Campbell’s spot ? In your dreams Puppy Boy. “Political Editor” ? Ha !

    • Lanthanide 9.2

      All of the TV stations do this with their polls, TV1 is no better when it’s polling violently disagrees with the others. They make up all this ridiculous crap about what it would mean as an election result. the only hedging they do at all is mention the “margin of error” at the end, which I am convinced none of the journalists actually understand (they might think they do, but when push comes to shove, they wouldn’t).

  10. Boadicea 10

    Not Rogue.
    TV3 is aligned with the others in that they all report that Shearer is not personally making any cut-through.
    We want Labour to win. But Shearer is our biggest liability.
    We cannot make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
    The lifts we get are only based on Nat’s poor performances.

  11. vto 11

    Labour most certainly have a serious problem with Shearer’ mumbling and bumbling. He seems to be getting better but shit folks, if he steams into a campaign peppered with mumblefucks, the mumblefucks will become funny and take on a life of their own. Dunno how far labour would get when the populace laughs at what the leader says and waits with baited breath for the next sloppy dripper.

    I find in my line of occupation that the problems and weak points are what you need to concentrate on, not the good bits. One or two weak points can undo all the good bits. Gotta concentrate on the weak points, winkle them out and repair them. Do not ever turna blind eye to your weak points or they will bite you on te bum. More 2c.

  12. Adrian 12

    Of course Labour’s lift is dependent on the Nats poor performance, it’s because that floating vote of around 15% goes either way. Labours win is not going to come from a mysterious upsurge further left ( though there are some there) but from the middle of the roaders, who incidentally probably wouldn’t vote Green at the threat of being taken out by their own late-model BMW or hunting rifle. So calls for Labour to go a lot further Left are a siren call. If you want a left wing Goverment you’ve got to accommodate them. Suck it up.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      So ignore the half million or more working class and under class who didn’t turn up last time, in favour of currying favour with the $60K-$100K pa “middle”? It is a way to win elections, but “affordable” $450,000 housing is not what I had in mind.

      • ghostrider888 12.1.1

        as an aside; thanks again for those components and specs; was doing the dishes, meditating on how I was going to pay for them, and a man I hadn’t seen for yonks turned up and offered to give me a 4-year old desktop which is going into the shop to be re-powered quad-core tomorrow.
        🙂

      • mac1 12.1.2

        So, CV, what else has Labour announced so far, a year or more out from an election? And which of it do you, in your own mind, like?

        • Colonial Viper 12.1.2.1

          Hmmmmmm NZ Power has got to be about it so far….CGT, $15/hr min wage, TPPA etc not what we need to solve the issues being faced.

      • McFlock 12.1.3

        actually, is there any data available for the socioeconomic cuts of “non-voter” vs “voted” in the last election?

  13. bad12 13

    Funny how when discussed vis a vis polling David Shearer’s failure to gain a huge amount of traction in the preferred Prime Minister poll comes up time and again, we all should befor we leap into that particular fray take a moment to reflect upon the same polling results Helen Clark received befor She became the Prime Minister,

    The next round of political polling will tell us all, including Labour, David Shearer and the Green Party just how big the appetite is in the electorate for the destruction of the Neo-Liberal political and economic consensus really is and judging by the as yet un-polled reaction to NZPower ‘it’s’ big and growing,

    I would suggest now, weeks befor the next round of polling that National are going to find themselves stuck in the traditional position of that particular motley crew with 40-42% of the vote and the gains to Labour/Green will come via the previous uncommitted/ did not vote bloc in society,

    There’s a long haul to November 2014 so the party hasn’t started here just yet but would dare suggest that the announcement by Labour/Green that they will fix what ails the ‘electricity market’ has now changed the game from ‘maybe’ in 2014 to one of how big’s the majority going to be,

    The next biggy i would want to see from Labour/Green is the transition of the ‘minimum wage’ into that of the ‘living wage’ and the proposed stages by which we can achieve this,

    As a PS, my view of making the next National Government after 2014 an extremely hard ask is that the Party strategists look at including NZFirst in Government should that Party be able to maintain it’s 5% in 2014, there are obvious pitfalls but my view is better them inside the tent than out…

    • ghostrider888 13.1

      yes, pitfalls being Winston veto-ing progressive legislation; what brings you back round these haunts bad 12?

    • Colonial Viper 13.2

      we all should befor we leap into that particular fray take a moment to reflect upon the same polling results Helen Clark received befor She became the Prime Minister,

      OK. And what other things might be comparable between Shearer and Clark? Parliamentary terms of experience before becoming PM? Previous portfolio experience? Being steeped in Labour culture, traditions and history? No, not really.

  14. lurgee 14

    The rage some people are still expressing towards Shearer is quite perplexing. Labour-Green are looking like a credible alternative government if the RM-CB polls are correct, with Labour up 8% on the 2011 result. They are starting to outline policy which is a) good and. b) likely to motivate the stay at home vote from previous elections. No-one (other than a few fringe loons) are talking about leadership any more. Yet still he’s being slammed. Some people, it would seem, are never going to be happy.

    In Britain, Ed Milliband’s Labour party are 10% clear of the Tories. His personal polling is dire. It is part and parcel of being an opposition leader. Shearer’s rating will improve when people actually have to start thinking if they want him to be Prime Minister or not. I suspect, also, that he will perform well under pressure. He is, after all, far more used to far more extreme pressure than any of us idiots blathering here.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Hey woah, mate.

      Yes, Milliband’s PM readiness polling is only 24%, but you missed out one important fact: Milliband has the highest personal polling out of all the main party leaders, i.e. including Cameron and Clegg.

      [Shearer] is, after all, far more used to far more extreme pressure than any of us idiots blathering here.

      A rehash of the AK47 warzone anecdotes? I’d settle for being able to win on Q+A.

    • karol 14.2

      Not to mention that many Brits on the left (including some ex Labour people) are not very happy with Miliband – they see him as another neoliberal apologist.

      • McFlock 14.2.1

        tsk. Him too?

        • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.1

          it’s pretty much fucked. UK Labour has been making more noises of late about making sure that bene’s aren’t leaching off the system.

    • Mike 14.3

      Good point, a lot of political people forget that a lot of ‘popularity’ among the public is just name recognition, most normal non-political people only know the name of one or two politicians, typically the PM and his predecessor

      Once Shearer is there, the power of the PM’s office (and its army of press secs) will propel his popularity numbers up.

    • gobsmacked 14.4

      Shearer’s rating will improve when people actually have to start thinking if they want him to be Prime Minister or not.

      Early candidate for “Most Deluded Comment of The Week”.

      That’s the last thing Labour will want voters to be thinking about. If voters only think (a) they’ve had enough of Key/National, and (b) they like some Labour/Green policy, then there could be a change of government.

      If they actually do think about Shearer as PM, we’re fucked.

      • ghostrider888 14.4.1

        yes gs; I hummed and ha’d about that “comment” me-self and decided it was best left to dry.

        • lurgee 14.4.1.1

          At the moment, for 90% of the population, he’s a nonentity; they can’t think of much good about him so he he must, therefore, be doing a bad job. Truth is, they can’t think of much to say about him because there is very rarely ever anything to say about the Leader of the Opposition, unless it is negative. It’s like being Vice President in the US, which someone compared to having to drink a glass of vomit. By definition, you’re unimportant and dismissed, until a month or two before an electionwhen the apathetic majority give themselves a shake and think, “Who the Hell are we going to get to run this place now?” Then, and only then, is it likely Shearer’s numbers will move.

          Milliband is in a similar situation. Comparisons of his rating to other British political leaders aren’t really relevant – they are loathed for what they have done (whereas Key is still quite liked by a lot of people); Shearer is afflicted by the same problem as Shearer, that of being the Unimportant Person out of the three main party leaders. If he (or Shearer) can’t boost his numbers when the election is imminent, then there is a problem. Pointing to his ratings and squeaking is a waste of energy. Incidentally, Milliband’s internal critics are concerned that he might be dragging the Labour Party left, off the safe Blairite right-of-centre. If there is any criticism of him from the left, it is coming from Trotskyite factions which (combined) muster about 0.3% of the vote. Trying to brand him as a neo-liberal is a novelty.

          As for my assessment that Shearer may only start firing on all cylinders in the lead up to the election, it is based on his performance to date – generally erratic and stuttering until the moment of (often self caused) crisis. I might be wrong, of course.

          • Colonial Viper 14.4.1.1.1

            At the moment, for 90% of the population, he’s a nonentity

            About 50% of the Labour supporters (but not members) I talk to think that Shearer is OK and getting decent exposure, and about 50% think that he’s lacklustre and wrong for the job of taking on National.

            Milliband is in a similar situation. Comparisons of his rating to other British political leaders aren’t really relevant

            Yeah, that’s because Milliband has a better personal poll rating than both the Leader of the Conservative Party (the UK PM) and the Leader of the Lib Dems (the UK DPM).

            BTW you brought up the comparison between UK Labour and NZ Labour, so please don’t shy back from it when it doesn’t suit you.

            I might be wrong, of course.

            At least you could stand by your convictions. My call: 49% chance Shearer will finish debate season with a reasonably average “holding the fort” performance against Key; 49% chance that he will finish debate season similar to Air France flight 447. 2% chance Key melts down and Shearer creams him where he stands.

            Best scenario for Labour: Key goes and Shearer is matched up against Collins or Joyce.

            f there is any criticism of him from the left, it is coming from Trotskyite factions which (combined) muster about 0.3% of the vote. Trying to brand him as a neo-liberal is a novelty.

            Yeah I appreciate you’ve earnt your pay and now you’re fucking kidding me.

            • McFlock 14.4.1.1.1.1

              Looking at their respective changes of late, I think you need to give key a much >2% chance of tanking a debate.

              Not that lab should go one on one – they’ll have coalition partners, nats are all or nothing

              • Colonial Viper

                Key’s head is out of the game at the moment; but by 2014 Key’ll either be back with his best game face on, or he’ll be long gone and someone else will be fronting the National No Plan Show.

            • lurgee 14.4.1.1.1.2

              “Yeah, that’s because Milliband has a better personal poll rating than both the Leader of the Conservative Party (the UK PM) and the Leader of the Lib Dems (the UK DPM).

              BTW you brought up the comparison between UK Labour and NZ Labour, so please don’t shy back from it when it doesn’t suit you.”

              I haven’t backed away from anything. You’re just trying to compare apples and unicorns.

              As I said, Milliband’s ratings are better than the coalition leaders because they are more hated than things that are hated (You forgot to comment on that bit). So comparisons between the two have to be made carefully. You can’t claim Milliband is popular because his opponents are even more unpopular. He’s in the same position as Shearer in terms of voters perception of him as a credible alternative PM – the British electorate don’t know much about him, and obscurity equates to uselessness as far as voters are concerned.

              Nick Clegg was in a similar position prior to the 2010 election – his approval and disapproval ratings were pretty much even until about a year out from the election, when he began to get positive coverage due to the Expenses Scandal and the Financial Crisis blah blah blah – then one went up, the other went down. He didn’t suddenly become competent, of course: people just started noticing him and thought, “That’s what we like in politicians: not Scottish and not a Tory.” After his performance in the leader’s debates, he became even more wildly popular, teenage girls were swooning and the matrons of Olde Englande were surreptitiously mailing him their underwear. Then he got into a coalition with the Tories, and now he’s hated again …

              So, as I said, it is silly to try to read anything into Shearer’s personal ratings at this point. Opposition leaders are almost always held in faint regard. After all, painting them as great often forces the electorate to confront the uncomfortable question of why the voted them out in the first place.

              “My call: 49% chance Shearer will finish debate season with a reasonably average “holding the fort” performance against Key; 49% chance that he will finish debate season similar to Air France flight 447. 2% chance Key melts down and Shearer creams him where he stands.”

              The thing about the debates is they aren’t really. Debates, I mean. Shearer will hardly have to confront Key in a Battle of Wits. They will simply trot out their rehearsed lines. Shearer has demonstrated he can be quite good at memorising prepared lines, if nothing else, so he will probably be adequate. After all, we’re starting to see some reasonable policy for him to talk about.

              “Yeah I appreciate you’ve earnt your pay and now you’re fucking kidding me.”

              You realise I’m talking about Ed Milliband there, not David Shearer, yes?

              Milliband’s critics have generally complained about him being too leftwing for the British electorate. Witness the current fuss about the commitment to exceed Tory spending pledges to stimulate the economy. Or the description of him in the rightwing press as Red Ed, the puppet of the unions? As I said, George Galloway and his ilk might make noises off to the left (though Galloway is really a self promoting rabble rouser, more akin to Winston Peters) but they are an electoral irrelevance.

              Out of interest, who is meant to be paying me?

              • Colonial Viper

                Mate, happy for your convolutions to be right and for Shearer to…uh, recite the better memorised lines in order to nail Key next year.

                You remind me of an older, more experienced McFlock. Very supportive of Shearer without acknowledging of being very supportive of Shearer.

                • lurgee

                  I acknowledge the gap between what is desireable and what is possible. There is no imminent leftist revolution, in spite of what the dreamers will tell you, and it wouldn’t happen if David Cunliffe was leader, either.

                  The current battle isn’t about selling revolution to the starving masses but stopping the rightwing wreckers destroying everything tolerable. Unfortunately, their message is simple and seems logical at first glance; and they can appeal to all the nasty sides of people quite easily. So a vaguely leftish Labour led administration would be the best result we can hope for. Clark had a much better shot at making some real changes – but she preferred to do nothing, let the Alliance die and freeze out the Greens. A bit like Blair in Britain, really.

              • McFlock

                Didn’t you get the memo lurg? Anyone who stops short of calling shearer an incomptent gibbering hand-held neoliberal must be in the pay of the
                “ABC” brigade

  15. jim 15

    If the voting pattern of the past ten years is of consequence it will be the 14% undecided who will make the call as to who shall rule, not some dubious polls.

    Like it or not, without Shearer seriously sharpening up, it is a lost cause, and as stated previously in the comments, come the pre election debates he will most certainly be dog tucker.

  16. Well its a puzzle to me , Here we Labour announcing a major policy ,which appears to be very popular. Proves it can work with our other Left-Wing party (which pleases me). Has ,in the words of John Armstrong left the Nat’s gobsmacked. Most polls showing Labour rising, Already announced an exciting housing policy plus Labour’s David Clark’s success with his private bill and all some out there can do find fault with David Shearer .Give us a break !

  17. burt 17

    The Roy Morgan poll just out reflects the effects of NZ power announcement. Unless of course its a rogue and TV3 are more reliable this time. Will be interesting to see how Greens/Labour react to this.

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    The latest Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) provides further evidence that the economy that the National Government and Bill English have is sitting on shifting sands and leaves many people behind, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says today. ...
    2 days ago
  • A Billion Better Things
    Earlier this week I posed some questions to Finance Minister Bill English about his support for the government’s plan to spend a billion dollars on a new prison. I was pretty disappointed in his answers, all of which flew in the face of his own ...
    GreensBy David Clendon
    2 days ago
  • Govt already in ‘holiday mode’ on $2.3b owed to Kiwi workers
    The Government is dragging its feet while working New Zealanders are still missing up to $2.3 billion collectively owed to them through underpaid holiday pay entitlements, Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Clark says. “The cover was blown on this issue ...
    2 days ago
  • Why is New Zealand still the exception on deposit protection?
    I took the opportunity to question the Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, about New Zealand’s lack of deposit protection in front of the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee in Parliament yesterday. Why does the Reserve Bank continue to oppose protecting ...
    GreensBy James Shaw
    2 days ago
  • Statement on proposed United Nations role
    “There has been a high degree of media interest in New Zealand about a possible post with the United Nations. “My name has been proposed to the United Nations Secretary General to be his Special Representative in South Sudan. ...
    2 days ago
  • David Shearer proposed for UN peacekeeping role
    Mt Albert MP David Shearer is being proposed for a demanding and exciting role heading the United Nations peacekeeping force in South Sudan, says Labour Leader Andrew Little. “David has kept me fully informed about this opportunity and we are ...
    2 days ago
  • Karori Kids and Campbell Kindergarten must be saved
    The Minister of Education needs to show some leadership and secure the future of two not-for-profit early childhood education centres that could be faced with closure as the land they sit on is up for sale, Grant Robertson Labour MP ...
    2 days ago
  • Ministry reveals shocking charter school results
    NCEA results for charter schools have been massively overstated with documents revealing many students leaving school without basic NCEA level two qualifications despite this being a main educational target for the Government, says Labour Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “Documents obtained ...
    2 days ago
  • Minister must protect MSD staff
      The Minister of Social Development should immediately implement safer work practices to ensure tragedies such as the Ashburton killings don’t happen again, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni.   ...
    2 days ago
  • A vote for the Māori Party is a vote for National
    Comments made by the Māori Party leadership in the wake of John Key’s surprise resignation make one thing clear: a vote for them is a vote for a fourth term National Government, and the increasing inequality and poverty for Māori ...
    3 days ago
  • Collins and English split over police funding
    The bloodletting has already begun with splits and divisions emerging after the Police Minister knifed the Finance Minister via the media, says Labour Police spokesman Stuart Nash. ...
    3 days ago
  • Next Prime Minister must tackle foreign speculators
    The public rightly puts much of the blame for the housing bubble at the feet of foreign speculators, and the next Prime Minister must listen to their concerns, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    3 days ago
  • NZ student performance slips in international study – again
    The continuing fall in Kiwi kids’ performance in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) study shows the damage being inflicted by National’s cuts to education and one-size-fits-all approach, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins. “For years, National has ...
    3 days ago
  • CYF reforms dangerous backward step
    Child protection has taken a massive step backwards today with the Government passing a Bill that will give significant powers to unspecified ‘professionals’ or contract holders, says Labour’s Acting Children’s spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    3 days ago
  • Improve workplaces, and address domestic violence
    Last week the Productivity Commission put out a report about how to grow “weak labour productivity”. These views are being criticised as being straight out of the 1980s. What is a real problem is that we have a problem of ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    4 days ago
  • Palm oil industry implicated in human rights abuses
    The Green Party has campaigned for several years for mandatory palm oil labeling to give consumers choice. Most consumers do not want to support a palm oil industry that is destroying tropical rainforests and contributing to dangerous climate change emissions. ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    4 days ago
  • Syphilis on the rise in NZ
    Cases of syphilis are increasing in Auckland. You read that right, syphilis!  RNZ reported today that rates of syphilis have increased by 71 percent (between 2013-2015). We have known about the increase in syphilis figures for a while, but nothing ...
    GreensBy Julie Anne Genter
    4 days ago
  • We need to work smarter not longer
    The charade of this Government’s sound economic management is unraveling. Misleading GDP figures, pumped up by property speculation and high immigration, have given the impression that all is well, masking our continued productivity decline compared to OECD countries. In fact, ...
    GreensBy Barry Coates
    4 days ago
  • Statement on John Key’s resignation
    Labour Party Leader Andrew Little has acknowledged John Key’s contribution to Government.  “John Key has served New Zealand generously and with dedication. Although we may have had our policy differences over the years, I respect the Prime Minister’s decision to ...
    4 days ago
  • Positive plan secures victory
    The victory of Labour’s newest MP, Michael Wood, in Mt Roskill is the result of a well-organised campaign run with honesty and integrity, says Labour Leader Andrew Little. “I congratulate Michael Wood on his great victory. He will be a ...
    6 days ago
  • Wave of support for Kiwibuild continues to grow
    Apartment builder Ockham Residential has become the latest voice to call for the government to build affordable homes for Kiwi families to buy, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Helen O'Sullivan of Ockham has now joined prominent businesspeople like EMA ...
    1 week ago
  • Cuba Si Yankee No – Fidel Castro and the Revolution
    The death of Fidel Castro is a huge historical moment for the older generation who grew up with the toppling of Batista, the Bay of Pigs debacle, the death of Che Guevara and the US blockade against Cuba. For younger ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Government slashes observer coverage, fails snapper fishery
    The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has more than halved the number of fisheries observers in the East Coast North Island snapper trawl fishery (SNA1). This reduction in observer days, combined with major failures in an unproven and controversial video ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • ‘Exemplar’ Māori Land Court under siege
    TheMāori Land Court, hailed as an “exemplar” by the Ministry of Justice chief executive and Secretary, Andrew Bridgman is under siege by the Government through Māori land reforms and a Ministry restructure, says Labour’s Ikaroa-Rāwhiti MP Meka Whaitiri. ...
    1 week ago
  • He Poroporoaki ki a Te Awanuiārangi Black
    Kua hinga he whatukura o Tauranga Moana. Kua hinga rangatira o te iwi Māori. Ka tangi tonu ana te ngākau nā tāna wehe kei tua o te ārai. E rere haere ana ngā mihi aroha o mātou o Te Rōpū ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 week ago
  • CYF reforms ignoring whānau based solution
    When approximately 60 per cent of children in state care are Māori processes need to change in favour of whānau, hapū and iwi solutions, said Labour’s Whānau Ora spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta.  “Widespread concern about Government reforms of Child Youth and ...
    1 week ago
  • Hip and knees surgery takes a tumble
    The statistics for hip and knee electives under this Government make depressing reading, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “Under the last Labour Government we achieved a 91 per cent growth in hip and knee elective surgery. Sadly under this ...
    1 week ago
  • Parata’s spin can’t hide cuts to early childhood education
    No amount of spin from Hekia Parata can hide the fact that per-child funding for early childhood education has been steadily decreasing under the National government, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “In the 2009/10 year early childhood services received ...
    1 week ago
  • Nats will jump at chance to vote for KiwiBuild Bill
    National will welcome the chance to vote for a real solution to the housing crisis after their many, many failed attempts, says Labour MP for Te Tai Tokerau Kelvin Davis. Kelvin Davis’s Housing Corporation (Affordable Housing Development) Amendment Bill was ...
    1 week ago
  • Million dollar houses put homeownership out of reach of middle New Zealand
    35% of New Zealanders now live in places where the average house costs over a million dollars, and it’s killing the Kiwi dream of owning your own place, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. Latest QV stats show that Queenstown ...
    1 week ago
  • Opportunity for political parties to back Kiwi-made and Kiwi jobs
    The First Reading in Parliament today of his Our Work, Our Future Bill is a chance for political parties to ensure the government buys Kiwi-made more often and backs Kiwi jobs, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. The reading ...
    1 week ago
  • Solid Energy must open the drift
    Solid Energy is showing no moral spine and should not have any legal right to block re-entry into the Pike River drift, says Damien O’Connor MP for West Coast-Tasman.  “Todays failed meeting with  representatives from the state owned company is ...
    1 week ago
  • 20,000 at risk students “missing”
    A briefing to the Minister of Education reveals 20,000 at-risk students can’t be found, undermining claims by Hekia Parata that a new funding model would ensure additional funding reached students identified as at-risk, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins. ...
    1 week ago
  • Crime continues to rise
    Overall crime is up five per cent and the Government just doesn’t seem to care, says Labour’s Police Spokesperson Stuart Nash. ...
    1 week ago
  • Treasury fritters $10 million on failed state house sell off
    The Treasury has wasted $10 million in two years on the National Government's flawed state house sell off programme, including nearly $5.5 million on consultants, says Labour Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. "New Zealand needs more state housing than ever, with ...
    1 week ago
  • National slow to learn new trade lessons post TPPA
    Yesterday, the Minister for Trade misused economic data in order to try to make the case for more so-called ‘trade agreements’ like the TPPA which are actually deregulatory straitjackets in disguise. In welcoming a Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade ...
    GreensBy Barry Coates
    1 week ago
  • Skilled migrant wages plummeting under National
    Wages have plummeted for people with skilled migrant visas working in low-skilled occupations, driving down wages for workers in a number of industries, says Labour’s Immigration Spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway. “Documents acquired by Labour under the Official Information Act reveal that ...
    1 week ago
  • Child abuse apology needed
    The Government's failure to act on recommendations from Judge Henwood, based on years of work by the Confidential Listening and Assistance Service (CLAS) will further undermine any faith victims may have put into the process, says Labour’s Children’s Spokesperson Jacinda ...
    1 week ago
  • Reserve Bank again highlights National’s housing failure
    National’s failure to deal with the housing crisis in New Zealand is once again being exposed by the Reserve Bank today, in a scathing assessment of the Government’s response, says Labour Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson “Governor Wheeler is clearly worried ...
    1 week ago
  • Palm Oil Labelling: Possible Progress?
    On Friday, the Minister for Food Safety, along with her Australian colleagues finally looked at the issue of mandatory labelling of palm oil. We’ve been calling for mandatory labelling for years and we were hoping that the Ministers would agree ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    1 week ago
  • National: Fails to achieve
    The ineffectiveness of the National Government’s approach to schooling has been highlighted by the latest Trends in International Maths and Science Study (TIMSS) report released overnight, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. ...
    1 week ago
  • Faster into Homes – a new pathway for first home buyers
    This week Parliament will select another members’ bill from the cookie tin (I kid you not, it really is a cookie tin) and I’ve just launched a new bill I’m hoping will get pulled – to help people get into ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    1 week ago
  • Selling off our state housing stock isn’t working for NZers
    I want to end homelessness and ensure that everyone has a warm, safe, dry home. This National Government has let down New Zealanders, especially the thousands of New Zealanders who are struggling with something so basic and important as housing. ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 week ago
  • Government needs to ensure fair deal on EQC assessments
    Kiwis affected by earthquakes might not get a fair deal if the Government pushes ahead with secret plans to let private insurers take over the assessment of claims, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Under questioning from Labour the Government ...
    1 week ago
  • Key’s priorities the real ‘load of nonsense’
    The Prime Minister’s fixation with tax cuts, despite a failure to pay down any debt and growing pressure on public services is the real ‘load of nonsense’, says Labour Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “We’re getting mixed messages from National. John ...
    1 week ago
  • Free Speech and Hate Speech
    Last week we were very concerned to hear that an Auckland imam, Dr Anwar Sahib, had been preaching divisive and derogatory messages about Jewish people and women during his sermons. It was a disturbing incident coming at the end of ...
    GreensBy James Shaw
    2 weeks ago
  • Young Kiwis struggling under record mortgage debt
    The Government needs to step in and start building affordable homes for first homebuyers now more than ever, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Tairāwhiti says No Stat Oil!
    Tairāwhiti says yes to a clean environment for our mokopuna today and for generations to come. Tairāwhiti are have a responsibility to uphold their mana motuhake over their land and their peoples and are calling on the Government to honour ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    2 weeks ago