Polls – focus on the horse race misses the huge mood for change

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments
Categories: election 2017, MMP - Tags: , , , ,

Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. This discussion seemed inconceivable just 2 months ago, and it is a sign how far Labour has come! Maybe Labour is ahead, maybe it’s National, rumour is that both parties’ internal polling has them neck and neck.

It is all good grist to the pundit mills of course, but it’s also old fashioned FPP thinking that misses a more important story, the huge mood for change. Labour and Greens represent a strong vote for change, and combined are almost certainly well ahead of the Nats. The other big chunk of votes is NZF. According to this excellent piece on The Spinoff NZF policy and rhetoric is much better aligned with the left than the right. Significantly, a clear plurality of Kiwis want NZF to go with Labour not National:

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Kiwis want NZ First to go with Labour, not National

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton election poll has revealed Kiwis would prefer New Zealand First supports a Labour-led government.
…
The poll showed 46 per cent of respondents supported Labour, a third say National and seven per cent don’t want the party in government at all. The rest don’t know. …

Another way of putting this is that on current polling averages Labour have more options for putting together a government than National (in fact National may have none).

The mood for change is real, and it is significantly out-polling the stale status quo. After nine long years of National we have entrenched poverty, a crumbling health system, crises in housing and homelesness, dying rivers, and no credible commitment to reducing climate change. The government that sat on its hands all this time is not capable of fixing these problems. That is why we need to #ChangeTheGovernment, and that is why the mood for change is real.

56 comments on “Polls – focus on the horse race misses the huge mood for change ”

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  1. Incognito 1
    15 September 2017 at 7:35 am

    After more than 30 long years of neoliberalism the mood for change is real. We’re slowly but surely replacing the stale old story with a new one (Monbiot). These elections are both cause and consequence (symptoms if you like) of a much bigger mood for change.

    • garibaldi 1.1
      15 September 2017 at 9:04 am

      This “huge mood for change” is nothing more than replacing a tired regime with another similar regime. Change will be minimal under Labour. “Business as usual” would not be allowing any change more significant than swapping tweedle dum for tweedle dee. They seem to be happy so it looks like we will be getting a slightly nicer neolib government. I guess it is the least we can hope for and is better than the current lot. However this is not a “Corbyn moment” for NZ. We are years behind and seem to be incapable of breaking out from our conservatism and becoming enlightened like the Scandinavians.

      • Enough is Enough 1.1.1
        15 September 2017 at 9:20 am

        That is why if you want real change you need to vote Green.

        Labour are too easily influenced by National’s whinging and the media. Yesterday’s flip flop is clear evidence of that.

        If you want a progressive government that will focus on the environment and reducing poverty vote Green.

      • left_forward 1.1.2
        15 September 2017 at 9:29 am

        Don’t agree with you garibaldi, vote Green, as I will be doing, but cut the crap – neoLibs are on the way out – if this is what you want, support any movement in that direction!

      • Adrian Thornton 1.1.3
        15 September 2017 at 10:15 am

        @garibald, Yes, it was depressing even for a old cynic like me to see how easy Labour rolled on tax, but then I guess this is an example of Jacinda Ardern’s/new Labour’s ‘Pragmatic Idealism’, which everyone thinks is so Progressive.

        Seriously, why would you let your political opponents dictate your economic platform?, which is effectively what Labour have just done, what a joke.

        • Pat 1.1.3.1
          15 September 2017 at 10:23 am

          http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201858622/political-opinions-on-a-rush-hour-wellington-train

          listen to attached link and consider that the mainstream view is varied and vital to enabling ANY change….being ideologically pure is wonderful ….if you reside in Utopia.

          • Siobhan 1.1.3.1.1
            15 September 2017 at 10:41 am

            Bringing in a few new taxes to start a rebalance a broken dysfunctional economy, that kneecaps workers and small businesses (other than landlords) is being ‘ideologically pure’??

            “Let’s Do This But Not Now, Maybe, Like, Latter’.

            • Pat 1.1.3.1.1.1
              15 September 2017 at 10:56 am

              castigating the Labour Party for delaying SOME tax changes by perhaps a year in order to secure a position to help those in need IS in effect being ideologically pure ….the mindset is beyond belief and the height of stupidity, I saw one comment immediately afterwards state that due to this change the commentor was no longer going to vote at all because they felt betrayed….how does that effect change pray tell?
              It is time that some woke up to the fact the world, and even this small corner of it, is not black and white and that compromise is not a dirty word but a necessity in order that the whole bloody place doesn’t descend into an inferno (although it may in any case)

              • Pat …
                15 September 2017 at 11:06 am

                post script

                You will strenuously deny it but your uncompromising position is simply a manifestation of the neoliberal philosophy…..winners and losers, winner take all and to hell with the rest…well fuck that for a philosophy

                • Siobhan …
                  15 September 2017 at 12:36 pm

                  I’ll be voting Green.
                  They are hardly a Party that lacks the ability to compromise.
                  But then they don’t exactly fall over themselves in the rush to appease the latest opinion poll.

                  • Pat …
                    15 September 2017 at 12:58 pm

                    as may I, depending on the polls just before saturday, but never lose sight of the fact that without broad electoral support (in this instance for Labour) that the best ideas and policy in the world mean absolutely nothing on the opposition benches..

              • left_forward …
                15 September 2017 at 12:00 pm

                E tautoko ano ahau ki a koe.

              • Adrian Thornton …
                15 September 2017 at 2:00 pm

                @Pat “It is time that some woke up to the fact the world, and even this small corner of it, is not black and white and that compromise is not a dirty word”

                What the hell are you talking about? since 1984 workers and the poor have compromised in every way possible apart from actually …well let’s not go there…to allow this neo liberal project to flourish for the everybody but themselves,.all this while productivity has grown to record highs and wages ( for the majority) in real terms have remained flat lined, and workers conditions and security have plummeted, that is where compromising with economic terrorists gets you…
                So you go ahead and advocate compromise with these free market ideologues, and lets talk in five years, you can be sure nothing of substance will have changed..

                .http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indicators/Home/Labour%20market/lab-productivity.aspx

                • Pat …
                  15 September 2017 at 3:13 pm

                  “So you go ahead and advocate compromise with these free market ideologues, and lets talk in five years, you can be sure nothing of substance will have changed.”

                  I will continue to advocate for compromise….with my fellow NZers many of whom are unwitting victims of that ideology and if it takes some give and take or some breathing space to adjust so be it…..the alternative?

        • Patricia Bremner 1.1.3.2
          15 September 2017 at 11:34 am

          Well Adrian, if that piece of pragmatic reading of Joyce attack modes means we get into government, when standing stubborn in the face of their crap might mean missing out, I say, “Well played Jacinda”

          After all, when she is in her 100 days, she can announce a different tack, because I believe the underfunding is at critical levels, and may need swifter responses. ie targetted taxes.

          But, we have to win. Red Green/ Green Red Let’s do this!!!

          • tracey 1.1.3.2.1
            15 September 2017 at 12:52 pm

            Labour still has its 5 year “bright line” policy though? That will ease some security concern for some renters if the landlord has to hold the property for 5 years. It wont solve the cost but the constant moving…

          • Adrian Thornton 1.1.3.2.2
            15 September 2017 at 2:05 pm

            @Patricia Bremner, If that’s how you see it fine, personally I would rather a uncompromising idealist right now.
            But if you are happy to compromise your fundamental positions and principles and let National dictate your narrative, then it seems you have found a political voice that speaks for you…well done.

        • Thinkerr 1.1.3.3
          16 September 2017 at 6:45 am

          I think Labour realised they were creating a huge risk for themselves by not putting detail to the tax proposal.

          Then, they probably realised the working group thing would take about a year to work through (until June, the new government has to manage last years budget) and then maybe another year to get people introduced to the changes and implement them.

          So what theyve done is sacrifice about 12 months to get rid of an elephant in the room of their own making. Ironically, National is still out there with its new ad – I didnt know they could use the Labour tag on their own ads?

          What all this says to me is that this will be a major change to taxation – not tweaks like before. Hopefully worth the extra wait.

          Santa, I want a Tobin Tax for Christmas…

      • simbit 1.1.4
        15 September 2017 at 10:20 am

        Agree that Labor will get tired too… In about 2026.

      • mikesh 1.1.5
        15 September 2017 at 3:17 pm

        ¨Change¨ seems to be the current buzzword.

      • Incognito 1.1.6
        15 September 2017 at 11:38 pm

        Time will tell whether this election is just a ripple or wave on the incoming or outgoing tide or the actual tide itself.

    • cleangreen 1.2
      15 September 2017 at 1:27 pm

      “trickle down mood for change’ not ‘smoke & mirrors’ is shall be our battle cry.

  2. tracey 2
    15 September 2017 at 7:43 am

    God I wish polls would just die and go away.

    NZF policies absolutely align more with Labour so why does Winston still hanker for National? The National party he joined no longer exists. It also suggests they are still really a one man party? Is that true, will NZF survive without Winston?

    Labour were 24% a few weeks ago. This remains a story of massive proportions but still the attacks come. If they provide detail they are criticised. If they do not they are criticised.

    • Hanswurst 2.1
      15 September 2017 at 7:51 am

      NZF policies absolutely align more with Labour so why does Winston still hanker for National?

      Judging by his interview with Espiner yesterday morning, policy isn’t Peters’ big thing.

    • You_Fool 2.2
      15 September 2017 at 10:19 am

      Winston wants power for Winston, and the baubles that come with that power. Any post-election discussions will be Winston finding out which colour party will give him the most stuff. I am sure he is still hoping to convince either one to give him the PM slot, whoever does that will get his support with absolutely no other requirements, and that is more likely to be the Blue team as they have no PM level people anyway. Otherwise it is a lolly scramble and Winston will take what ever is the best for him personally, and where he can have a platform to preach from in the lead up to the 2020 election.

    • cleangreen 2.3
      15 September 2017 at 1:30 pm

      yes Tracey,

      National are so desperate they have resorted to ‘attack mode’ now.

  3. Pat 3
    15 September 2017 at 9:30 am

    As you say the numbers clearly show a mood for change, however it is worth noting that using this method that could have been said of the previous few elections where National secured the treasury benches with approx 30% support of eligible votes…..the point cannot be made strongly enough….turnout is key…..and ominously latest reports indicate a lower turnout than last election, particularly among the young.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/election-2017/339434/fewer-young-people-enrolled-than-2014

  4. Anne 4
    15 September 2017 at 9:57 am

    Its almost as if people are now feeling safe enough to come out into the open and admit they’ve had enough of the status quo [read neo-liberalism] and want to see big changes in the way the country is run.

    Until the change in Labour’s fortunes, few people were prepared to stick their necks out for fear of being cut down. Steven Joyce and co. had the natives (yeah that’s all of us) in a nationwide cowed state (metaphorically speaking) for nine years.

    • Pat 4.1
      15 September 2017 at 10:01 am

      let us hope you are correct and that it is reflected in next weekends result.

      • cleangreen 4.1.1
        15 September 2017 at 11:44 am

        Here here Pat.

        We are hoping also for good carma to spread like wildfire and extiguish the fearful life National have placed us all under.

        Be free kiwis – ‘lets do this’
        @ilovejacinda

    • Carolyn_nth 4.2
      15 September 2017 at 10:24 am

      I think people started to put their necks out and ask for change (of social welfare, and against poverty and inequalities) after Metiria made her speech that included her confession.

      • Bill 4.2.1
        15 September 2017 at 10:41 am

        That’s the truth of it.

        I do like how, in spite of everything they had to throw at it, the vampires of Liberalism and their Igor* servants from various media have have failed to quell the sense of disquiet.

        * I know Dracula’s servant was called Renfield, but what this being NZ, accuracy being no big deal, and Igor being a better or more emotive name…..

        • DSpare 4.2.1.1
          15 September 2017 at 2:37 pm

          Bill
          He was Frankenstein’s (film not book) servant*, so the analogy would work if you said something like: The mad scientists of Liberalism and their Igor servants from various media have have failed to quell the sense of disquiet, as their grotesque creation continues to leave a trail of destruction in its wake.

          *Also Renfield wasn’t Dracula’s servant (that would be the Romanian gypsies, or the Sisters), more a clerk who had been driven insane by contact with him. This being Aotearoa, accuracy remains important to some of us.

      • Anne 4.2.2
        15 September 2017 at 10:43 am

        Thanks for reminding me Carolyn_nth. You’re right. Metiria did begin the process…

        The task of eliminating poverty and inequalities in NZ is going to be a massive one and I’m hoping that a Labour/Green coalition (if it transpires) will see Metiria Turei playing a major role. There will need to be ‘work-shops’ and specialised agencies set up to cope with the hugely increased workload. Perhaps Metiria will be appointed to lead one of them.

  5. Eco maori 5
    15 September 2017 at 11:10 am

    No One mention the 15 Maori seats.
    To hard well if not that than we should press for a law to be made to make it compulsory to vote and that will
    make our political process more democrat
    Like Australia’s.

    • Patricia Bremner 5.1
      15 September 2017 at 11:47 am

      We think that Maori people should have their say on the Maori seats.

      It affects them more than anyone. If Labour get 44% of the vote, we will have the greatest Maori representation in Labour ever.

      Tamati Coffey will be there to poke his counterpart Te Ururoa Flavell. (Unless he beats him that is!!)

  6. cleangreen 6
    15 September 2017 at 11:38 am

    Yes we see every day the sheer frustration with everyone now wo are wanting a change of government to a ‘warm, caring , inclussive government and with jacinda we will get this, as she generates good carma.

    Good carma brings good things to us all, – carma is contagious.

  7. cleangreen 7
    15 September 2017 at 11:48 am

    If everyone questions whether Winston will go with National;

    Why has he got on his billboard “had enough”?

    He is sending the message right there.

  8. swordfish 8
    15 September 2017 at 12:16 pm

    Significantly, a clear plurality of Kiwis want NZF to go with Labour not National

    Including pluralities and outright majorities of NZF voters in the New Zealand Election Study over recent Elections

    NZF supporters are disproportionately former Labour voters according to NZES

  9. McFlock 9
    15 September 2017 at 12:53 pm

    Mind you, ISTR that was the vibe in 1996, as well.

    Other factors helped fuck a lab/all/nz1 coalition then, but the salient point is that you never know which way winston will bounce…

    • cleangreen 9.1
      15 September 2017 at 1:39 pm

      Hi McFlock – long time no see!

      Winston has been through the 33 yrs of political works with the right & left, and now has committed to removing this crapy sellout government!!!

      He clearly said so, at the 230 strong public meeting last Tuesday in Gisborne as i was standing there when he said it.

      Winston wants a political revolution as we do too, he said that also.

      • McFlock 9.1.1
        15 September 2017 at 2:22 pm

        Yeah. He said a lot of things in 1996, too.

      • adam 9.1.2
        15 September 2017 at 2:33 pm

        If I remember rightly, The Age in Melbourne printed somthing like Peter’s saying he was likely to be going with national, as this was his best fit. I asked family back here if that was what he was saying, and they said he was not saying that. This was before the election.

        Peters is, and has always been, all over the place.

      • red-blooded 9.1.3
        15 September 2017 at 4:26 pm

        In ’96 Winston said the only way to get rid of the Nat govt was to vote NZF. Afterwards, he argued that he had got rid of “that” government, because this new one was Nat/NZF. Winston will spin and spin and spin…. If we need him, I hope he’ll spin our way (but I really hope we don’t need him).

  10. Draco T Bastard 10
    15 September 2017 at 1:34 pm

    The government that sat on its hands all this time is not capable of fixing these problems.

    A few rich people are getting richer from them and so they don’t actually see these things as problems to be fixed.

  11. adam 11
    15 September 2017 at 2:37 pm

    Funny, I getting somthing slightly different. I’m getting more people who feel we need real change, rather than just a change of government.

  12. marty mars 12
    15 September 2017 at 3:01 pm

    the mood for change – I like that because in reality everything is changing all the time so a mood for change could be considered a mood for the way it is and this is important imo because acceptance is part of the process of change. We accept the way it is and we want to improve or change it to make it better. For me that is so much better than saying unless the change I want occurs I will stymie others feelings of change or I will nit pick because the changes aren’t big enough. For me that attitude shows an attitude of scarcity and actually an attitude of buying into neo liberalism.

  13. Glenn 13
    15 September 2017 at 3:52 pm

    My National friends (they think I’m slightly demented LOL) are worried. They are talking about generational change as their children are ignoring the families favoured party for the first time and voting for Jacinda. Not Labour (or the Greens) but Jacinda. All that matters this time around is they are ditching National!

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  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

    New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

    In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today.  “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

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