Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush
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10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first -
Tags: approval polling, colmar brunton, electorates, newshub, party lists, polling, pollwatch, reid research, roy morgan, tvnz
All three major pollsters have delivered their final results within two days of election day, giving us a nice picture into what the spread of results tomorrow could look like, with the trend looking good for some sort of centre-left government, but a majority government result for labour still barely on the cards in all three results.
NZF is outside of the margin of error of the 5% threshold in all of these polls- they would need a significant surge in the last two days to have made it back into Parliament, so it’s looking like it may be the second time they drop out. While good in theory, in practice this is likely to heighten Labour and National’s battle for centrist swing voters until a new party that can sit in the ground between them to some extent emerges.
While the Māori party isn’t registering particularly well in the party vote, I’d keep my eyes on the electorates where their co-leaders are running in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makarau.
While the Greens scored heavily in the Roy Morgan as usual, which often overestimates them, to the point I’ve taken to adjusting down 70% of the result over 5% in order to have it comparable to the other two polls, Colmar Brunton also gave a really strong Green result, although Reid Research didn’t, and when adjusted this way, the Roy Morgan poll looks a lot like the Reid Research one for the Greens, so there’s a big difference between potentially as few as eight or as many as twelve MPs for them depending on how you count.
Also worth noting is that there’s some leader Approval data in the Colmar Brunton poll: Ardern’s net approval is still very strong at a rounded +55%, (74%-20%) and Collins is doing better than previous National Leaders, but still barely struggling through, at +6%, although compared to Bridges, she’ll be glad her head is above water- for no. (45%-39%)
The trend for Labour and National is relatively stable now, which is actually good news- means we can make a reasonable call that Labour will be somewhere around that 60 seat margin, and National somewhere at or just below 40. “Around 60” seats, though, is actually poised on the knife’s edge of whether Labour gets 61 or more seats, or 60 or less.
I’m generally agreed that Labour would favour keeping the Greens close by picking out policies they like from our platform to continue an ongoing relationship, if you want any big-ticket items that Labour seems to find inconvenient, like say, actually putting any big policy into place after COVID, then whether the Greens have an actual negotiating position post-election is going to be hugely relevant- and that all hinges on whether Labour dip below that 61 MPs mark.
Digging into the modelling for a bit, we can see visually here that the balance is very tight:
In these simulations, the threshold was largely pretty consistent:
| Under Threshold: | Roy Morgan | Colmar Brunton | Reid Research |
| ACT Party | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% |
| New Zealand First | 100.0% | 99.4% | 100% |
| Green Party | 0% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
Finally, let’s have a look at the electorate shift modelling and which MPs might be in tomorrow. This looks manageable for both large parties:
Labour |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Jacinda Ardern | Mt Albert | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Kelvin Davis | Te Tai Tokerau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Grant Robertson | Wellington Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 4 | Phil Twyford | Te Atatū | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Megan Woods | Wigram | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Chris Hipkins | Remutaka | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Andrew Little | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Carmel Sepuloni | Kelston | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | David Parker | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Nanaia Mahuta | Hauraki-Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | Trevor Mallard | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 12 | Stuart Nash | Napier | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 13 | Jenny Salesa | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 14 | Damien O’Connor | West Coast-Tasman | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Kris Faafoi | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 16 | David Clark | Dunedin | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 17 | Ayesha Verrall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 18 | Peeni Henare | Tāmaki Makaurau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 19 | Willie Jackson | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 20 | Aupito William Sio | Māngere | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Poto Williams | Christchurch East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 22 | Vanushi Walters | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 23 | Michael Wood | Mt Roskill | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Adrian Rurawhe | Te Tai Hauāuru | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 25 | Kiri Allan | East Coast | Elected via list | Elected via list | Wins Electorate |
| 26 | Kieran McAnulty | Wairarapa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 27 | Louisa Wall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 28 | Meka Whaitiri | Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 29 | Rino Tirikatene | Te Tai Tonga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 30 | Camilla Belich | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 31 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan | Maungakiekie | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Jan Tinetti | Tauranga | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 33 | Deborah Russell | New Lynn | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 34 | Marja Lubeck | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 35 | Angie Warren-Clark | Bay of Plenty | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 36 | Willow-Jean Prime | Northland | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 37 | Tamati Coffey | Waiariki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Naisi Chen | Botany | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 39 | Jo Luxton | Rangitata | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 40 | Jamie Strange | Hamilton East | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 41 | Liz Craig | Invercargill | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 42 | Ibrahim Omer | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 43 | Duncan Webb | Christchurch Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 45 | Ginny Andersen | Hutt South | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 46 | Rachel Brooking | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 47 | Paul Eagle | Rongotai | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 48 | Helen White | Auckland Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 49 | Barbara Edmonds | Mana | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 50 | Angela Roberts | Taranaki-King Country | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 51 | Shanan Halbert | Northcote | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 52 | Neru Leavasa | Takanini | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 53 | Tracey McLellan | Banks Peninsula | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 54 | Lemauga Lydia Sosene | List | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 55 | Steph Lewis | Whanganui | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 56 | Dan Rosewarne | Waimakariri | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 57 | Rachel Boyack | Nelson | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 58 | Arena Williams | Manurewa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 59 | Ingrid Leary | Taieri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| … | |||||
| – | Greg O`Connor | Ōhariu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Anna Lorck | Tukituki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Tangi Utikere | Palmerston North | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
National |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Judith Collins | Papakura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Shane Reti | Whangārei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | Louise Upston | Taupō | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparāoa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 18 | Nick Smith | Nelson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Loses seat |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | List | Elected via list | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 22 | Johnathan Young | New Plymouth | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 26 | Nancy Lu | List | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 27 | Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatū | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikōura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 35 | Simon O’Connor | Tāmaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Ōhariu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitīkei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 40 | Matt King | Northland | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 42 | Tim Van de Molen | Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Mana | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| … | |||||
| 64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast | Wins Electorate | Not elected | Wins Electorate |
ACT |
||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | David Seymour (Epsom) | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Brooke van Velden | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Nicole McKee | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Chris Baillie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Simon Court | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | James McDowall | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Karen Chhour | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Mark Cameron | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Toni Severin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Damien Smith | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
Green |
|||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: | Roy Morgan: (Adjusted) |
| 1 | Marama Davidson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 2 | James Shaw | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Chlöe Swarbrick | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Julie Anne Genter | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Jan Logie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | Eugenie Sage | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Golriz Ghahraman | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Teanau Tuiono | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Elizabeth Kerekere | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Ricardo Menéndez March | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 11 | Steve Abel | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 12 | Teall Crossen | Not elected | Not elected | Elected via list | Not elected |
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I cannot stop grabbing people by the lapels, or shoulders, or similar, and raving at them about the tiny miracles in my ears.I can hear again! There could not be a more satisfied customer in all the world.In a noisy cafe I am even catching words that Karren cannot, she ...5 days ago - Unintended Consequences
Take the baitYou pay the priceIt's much too lateFor good adviceYou know and I know that our good things' throughBecause there's consequences for what we doConsequences for me and youWriters: Kevin Robert Hayes, David Nagier, Bonnie Adele Hayes.Fallout from the first readingOne News began last night by saying that tens ...6 days ago - Thank you, driver!
Today, Saturday 16th of November, is Auckland Transport’s Bus Driver Appreciation Day! Saturday 16 November marks the third annual Auckland Transport (AT) ‘Bus Driver Appreciation Day’, and this year we are encouraging all of New Zealand to thank their driver or let the bus go first if you are in ...6 days ago
- Totally Normal: Holiday Edition
Hi,If I was to accurately sum up my mental state over the week, I’d just say that I got a huge fright from my own shadow.I’d nipped out for an 11pm neighborhood stroll, just to calm down after a day of stress and screens. The Cure and Fazerdaze’s new record ...6 days ago - We Are Not Listening
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
7 days ago - More lawlessness from National
On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...7 days ago
- National’s tyrannical “foreign interference” law
Yesterday, under cover the the biggest political fight of the year, National quietly - covertly, even - introduced anti-foreign interference legislation. The bill is the product of a years-long work-program aimed at countering shit like this and this, and there's unquestionably a need to do something to counter foreign states' ...7 days ago
- The Haka Represents The Best Of Us
A few months ago, I was in an audience watching a Haka-Kapa and as I watched children dance and sing and sway and shout and beat, I couldn’t help but think “The Haka represents the best of us.”Yes, yes - there will be a thousand voices that rush forth to ...1 week ago
- Adding up the climate cost
St Mary’s Bay housing left hanging: Climate risk is systemically underestimated in the climate scenarios used by central banks, and a new report warns 10,000 houses are set to become uninsurable in Aotearoa. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in ...1 week ago
- Auckland chafing at Bishop’s housing intensification orders
One of the major problems the Government has in implementing its ‘going for housing growth’ strategy is that it isn’t giving much funding help to councils. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...1 week ago - Friday 15 November 2024
The Treaty Principles Bill continues to dominate political news, with it passing its first reading in the House. Parliament was briefly suspended and Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke suspended for 24 hours after leading a haka that was joined by opposition MPs and the public in the gallery. Willie ...1 week ago
- Weekly Roundup 15-November-2024
Happy Friday, welcome to another round-up of interesting stories about what’s happening in Auckland and other cities. Feel free to add your links in the comments! This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew and made possible by generous donations from our readers ...1 week ago
- Are We The Waiting?
And screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingAnd screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingForget me nots, second thoughts live in isolationHeads or tails and fairy tales in my mindAre we we are, are we we are the waiting unknownThe rage and love, the ...1 week ago - The Hoon around the week to November 15
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate news, including from COP29 this week; on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North ...1 week ago
- First Tea and Toast, now Milo — why do NZ’s best beverages need so much defending?
Only two months ago, Nicola Willis had to step in to stop Health New Zealand cutting tea and toast for post-birth parents, and now Lester Levy is riding to the rescue with a welcome message for all: our health workers can once again drink Milo, and will no longer need ...1 week ago - Gordon Campbell on the folly of making apologies in a social vacuum.
Day One of the Treaty Principles Bill…and everyone got what they wanted, and did what they liked. Heated words were exchanged. Culturally appropriate acts of outrage were performed. David Seymour got to play the victim card. Willie Jackson got kicked out of class. A comically red-faced Mr Speaker bellowed “Order, ...1 week ago
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2024
Open access notables Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications [comment]: The climate crisis is escalating. A multitude of microbe-based solutions have been proposed, and these technologies hold great promise and could be deployed along with other climate mitigation strategies. However, these solutions have ...1 week ago
- The PM gets some extremely valuable legal advice for free
You can pay a great deal of money for the services of a KC. So just what would some peerless legal writing from 40 or so of them be worth, do you reckon?Priceless, that’s what. It’s not even the half of it, but this is my favourite part of the ...1 week ago - D-day for the government
The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...1 week ago
- 97% of submissions did not want no-cause evictions, Trump chooses a Russian spy for US Intelligence ...
Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...1 week ago - Government must vote down ACT Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to vote down an ACT Party Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights by making it easier for employers to fire workers. Last week ACT MP Laura Trask’s Employment Relations (Termination of Employment by Agreement) Amendment Bill was ...1 week ago
- Seymour causes thousands of unjustified absences by forcing kids to fight for their rights instead o...
The State would like to remind you that they are in control. They manage your employment prospects, and can destroy the job market you and yours rely on by mass-cancelling construction projects, cutting funding, and firing a good chunk of our public servants. They wield the mechanisms that provide scrutiny ...1 week ago - The Weight of the World
As the weight of the world Hangs on your shoulders The weight of the world Starts to take over again And over again All that you once loved, now you hate So slowly relearn how to meditate To have and to hold And never let go Can you feel it ...1 week ago - Thursday 14 November 2024
The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
- Trump’s return to White House brings the climate’s ‘find out’ phase closer
As we absorb the news of Trump's victory in the US Presidential election, here’s a wrap compiled just before the result of what it might mean for climate action: The UN Secretary General says the prospective departure of the United States would cripple the Paris Agreement, likening it to the ...1 week ago
- Time and Space in the City Centre
Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the City Centre Advisory Panel. The header image is from Walthamstow, London The city centre now has a few stretches of street where the space has been repurposed to a people and place focused design from full time traffic use. These are a great ...1 week ago
- An opportunity for a pro-growth tax switch
As the Hikoi against it swells into the tens of thousands, KCs call on National to kill off ACT’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 14: The ...1 week ago
- Release: Government should be transparent on live exports
Targeted consultation on reinstating live cattle exports by sea won’t allow the New Zealand public to have their say. ...4 hours ago - NZ’s global climate rankings plummet as Govt removes agriculture from ETS
The Government has passed legislation to remove agriculture from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) while Aotearoa’s reputation on climate action plummets. ...19 hours ago - Failed boot camp experiment must end
As legislation to set up boot camps passed its first reading, the Green Party urged the Government to abandon this failed policy experiment for the good of our rangatahi. ...20 hours ago
- Gender-affirming care must centre evidence and health needs, not political posturing
The Ministry of Health has today released an evidence brief regarding the use of puberty blockers in gender-affirming healthcare, amid moves by the government to limit access. ...20 hours ago
- Release: National doesn’t care about manufacturing
The National Government is walking away from our manufacturing sector with constant reports of closures and job losses. ...22 hours ago
- Release: David Parker speech – Piketty, Inequality and Climate Change
David Parker's speech from the University of Auckland's forum on Piketty, Inequality and Climate Change in September 2024. ...22 hours ago
- Release: Youth mental wellbeing no longer a priority for Child Poverty Minister
Louise Upston has revealed her diminished vision for vulnerable youth against a backdrop of snubbed advice, scrapped priorities, shifted goal posts and thousands more children projected to fall into poverty. ...23 hours ago
- Release: National’s lack of climate action taking NZ backwards
National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...23 hours ago
- Release: Simple reason for drop in emergency housing
When the Government says it has reduced the number of people in emergency housing, what it means is it is stopping people from accessing it in the first place. ...1 day ago
- Govt’s child wellbeing strategy ‘shallow and shameful’
The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...1 day ago
- Release: A historic win for Samoan communities
Labour warmly welcomes the Restoring Samoan Citizenship Bill as it passes its third reading, before becoming law. ...1 day ago
- Government plan to reinstate live animal exports a “national disgrace”
The Government has taken a giant step backwards by reinstating live animal exports. ...2 days ago
- Pasifika justice as Member’s Bill passes final reading
Teanau Tuiono’s Member’s Bill, the Citizenship (Western Samoa Restoration) Amendment Bill, has passed its third reading and will become law. ...2 days ago
- Release: Minister of Education thinks New Zealand ends at the Bombay Hills
The Minister of Education has shown complete disregard for rural communities and their school bus routes in Question Time today. ...2 days ago
- Economists sound alarm on Government’s slash-and-burn approach
A group of prominent economists has released an open letter to the Government, raising grave concerns about the far-reaching consequences of its fiscal policy. ...2 days ago
- Release: Smoking numbers up under Costello’s watch
National’s repeal of Labour’s smokefree legislation has taken New Zealand further away from achieving a Smokefree 2025 and a smokefree generation. ...2 days ago
- Release: Call for Palestine recognition by NZ, Australian and Canadian MPs
Parliamentarians from Australia, Canada and New Zealand have written an open letter to their respective Prime Ministers calling on them to recognise Palestine. ...2 days ago
- Justice Select Committee opens floor for Treaty Principles submissions
Today, the Justice Select Committee has decided to officially open submissions for the controversial Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
- Power of the people on full display as hīkoi approaches Parliament
Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
- Hypocrisy as Te Whatu Ora contractor bill balloons
Te Whatu Ora’s bill for contracting and consulting staff has ballooned by nearly 20 percent under the National Government, breaking a promise they made during the election campaign to cut contractors. ...4 days ago
- Release: Growing pressure to scrap Section 7AA Repeal Bill
The newly released Section 7AA Repeal Bill's select committee report is further evidence that the Government should scrap it. ...5 days ago
- Government’s move to monetise access to nature a slippery slope
The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...1 week ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party condemns the passing of the Treaty Principles Bill at first reading, and is clear that the fight is not over. ...1 week ago
- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Fast Track Bill threatens environment, climate and reputation
The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 week ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Record number of submissions received on granny flat proposal
Nearly 2,000 submissions have been received on the Government’s proposals aimed at making it easier to build a granny flat of up to 60 square metres without a resource or building consent, RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk say. “This is the highest number ...57 minutes ago - District Court Judge appointed
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Rebecca Guthrie as a District Court Judge. Judge Guthrie was admitted to the bar in 1997 following her graduation from the University of Canterbury in 1996 (LLB, BA). She commenced her legal career in Hastings in 1997 before moving to London in ...1 hour ago
- Appointments strengthen Predator Free 2050
The latest Predator Free 2050 Board appointments will help to strengthen biodiversity efforts across Aotearoa New Zealand, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. Mr Potaka today announced two appointments to the Board of Directors of Predator Free 2050 Limited, a key player in the wider Predator Free 2050 Programme. “The Predator ...3 hours ago
- New facility in Christchurch will improve the lives of young New Zealanders
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey today opened Kahurangi, an innovative and much-needed facility for Canterbury’s Child, Adolescent, and Family Mental Health Services. “The new state of the art outpatient facility opened today will be a gamechanger for the way mental health is delivered for young people in Canterbury,” says Mr ...3 hours ago
- Driver safety screens to be installed on Auckland buses
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news from the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) that bus driver protection screens will be installed across Auckland’s bus fleet by 2026.“The Government is committed to improving the safety of working environments for bus drivers, and Budget 2024 allocated $15 million of Crown funding over ...3 hours ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...20 hours ago
- Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...20 hours ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...21 hours ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...21 hours ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...22 hours ago
- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...23 hours ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...24 hours ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...1 day ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...1 day ago
- Fighting for Kiwis in Trade
Delivered at Auckland Trade and Economic Policy School Good morning and thank you Deputy Vice Chancellor Lithander for your warm welcome and for inviting me to open Auckland Trade and Economic Policy School today. A Special thanks to the University of Auckland, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and ...1 day ago
- Attendance rates increase, again
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...1 day ago
- Improving the lives of young New Zealanders
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...1 day ago
- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...2 days ago
- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...2 days ago
- New Zealand’s COP29 National Statement
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...2 days ago
- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...2 days ago
- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...2 days ago
- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...2 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...3 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...3 days ago
- Significant milestone for Canterbury Road of National Significance
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...3 days ago
- Health survey results to help drive change
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...3 days ago
- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...3 days ago
- New diplomatic appointments
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...3 days ago
- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Red Tape Tipline goes live
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...3 days ago
- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...4 days ago
- Police stats show promising change
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...4 days ago
- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...4 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...4 days ago
- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...5 days ago
- Construction to begin on next stage of Papakura to Drury
Construction on the next stage of the SH1 Papakura to Drury project will begin early next month, with the contract for works awarded to Fulton Hogan, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. "SH1 Papakura to Drury is a key project that will drive economic growth and productivity, reduce congestion, and enable people ...6 days ago
- Gang patch ban: The first 24 hours
The first arrest was made just three minutes after midnight, with 11 more to come. ...1 hour ago - New Zealand Government Urged To Back ICC Arrest Warrants For Israeli Leaders Without Equivocation
“We are waiting for our government to announce it will arrest Netanyahu and Gallant immediately if they set foot in Aotearoa New Zealand” says PSNA National Chair John Minto. ...2 hours ago - Justice Committee Makes Further Decisions About Submissions Process For The Principles Of The Treaty...
The committee plans to hold hearings in the week starting Monday, 27 January and the weeks starting 10, 17 and 24 February 2025. ...2 hours ago
- Watch live: Christopher Luxon faces questions during power station visit
It comes as Labour accuses National of not listening to evidence about boot camps. ...2 hours ago
- Survivors of abuse in care know how redress should work – will the government finally listen?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Winter, Associate Professor in Political Theory, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images When Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stood in Parliament last week to apologise to survivors of abuse in care, his words were among many fine speeches by ...2 hours ago - Review: The Day of the Jackal is a riveting and ridiculous ride
Eddie Redmayne’s globe-trotting assassin thriller on TVNZ is worth putting your phone down for. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. This is a vulnerable thing to say as someone who often writes about television for a job, but boy am I really ...2 hours ago - RNA editing is the next frontier in gene therapy – here’s what you need to know
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Matt, thank you for pulling all this together.
No problem, it's been a rush for me with a lot in my personal life, but I've been trying to make time to do this analysis for everyone. I've got them all up on twitter under #nzpoll, but not all of them made it to this site unfortunately.
Very glad I could get the last three in on time.
Note for those who haven't read the election day info: Pre-moderation will switch on during the regulated election day period. If you're seeing others' comments posted but yours aren't showing up, this is why. You don't need to submit them again. 🙂
Even better than that – in theory the ability to leave a comment on anything except the two designated moderated posts will disappear between 0000 and 1900. A subtle reminder for commenters 🙂
Thanks for this post. It is interesting to see just how knife-edge the Labour-Green option is based on the polls.
And I love that there is currently no probability based on the polls for National or Act to be in a government (unless Jacinda and the Labour caucus insanely ask them to be there).
I'm kinda loving that NZF haven't had a last-minute surge, or rather, that they've had it and it was… 1% extra, lol.
Thanks for the correction Lynn, even better!
I've always been ambiguous about NZF. They are a pain, and even more so since Shane Jones (all mouth and no oomph) wound up there.
But as you point out, having them long-term limits the level of Labour and National completely focusing on chasing the centre votes.
the odds at the bookies speak for themselves –National is toast
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/new-zealand-general-election-2020-next-sworn-in-government-4933767
New Zealand Labour Party @ 1.05
New Zealand National Party @ 10.00
Bet you not one National MP has placed a bet on their own party ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2020-matthew-hooton-national-set-for-third-defeat-in-2023
history will repeat itself over the next three years. National MPs will refuse to accept the public’s verdict, and decline to engage with new ideas or even contemporary New Zealand attitudes. They will resolve again to sit back smugly and wait for Ardern to fail
Why would you pay out anything for a labour government at this stage, lol, basically free money. 😉
If anyone had trouble reading the graphs on the original version of this post, I've updated it so that all the shrunken ones (the first six) can be clicked-through to the full scale file. I had forgotten the editor doesn't default to that, sorry!
Juuuusst in the nick of time !
https://twitter.com/swordfish7774/status/1317055908648636417
Remember … the preliminary Election Night result won’t be precisely the same as Final tally.