Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush
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10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first -
Tags: approval polling, colmar brunton, electorates, newshub, party lists, polling, pollwatch, reid research, roy morgan, tvnz
All three major pollsters have delivered their final results within two days of election day, giving us a nice picture into what the spread of results tomorrow could look like, with the trend looking good for some sort of centre-left government, but a majority government result for labour still barely on the cards in all three results.
NZF is outside of the margin of error of the 5% threshold in all of these polls- they would need a significant surge in the last two days to have made it back into Parliament, so it’s looking like it may be the second time they drop out. While good in theory, in practice this is likely to heighten Labour and National’s battle for centrist swing voters until a new party that can sit in the ground between them to some extent emerges.
While the Māori party isn’t registering particularly well in the party vote, I’d keep my eyes on the electorates where their co-leaders are running in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makarau.
While the Greens scored heavily in the Roy Morgan as usual, which often overestimates them, to the point I’ve taken to adjusting down 70% of the result over 5% in order to have it comparable to the other two polls, Colmar Brunton also gave a really strong Green result, although Reid Research didn’t, and when adjusted this way, the Roy Morgan poll looks a lot like the Reid Research one for the Greens, so there’s a big difference between potentially as few as eight or as many as twelve MPs for them depending on how you count.
Also worth noting is that there’s some leader Approval data in the Colmar Brunton poll: Ardern’s net approval is still very strong at a rounded +55%, (74%-20%) and Collins is doing better than previous National Leaders, but still barely struggling through, at +6%, although compared to Bridges, she’ll be glad her head is above water- for no. (45%-39%)
The trend for Labour and National is relatively stable now, which is actually good news- means we can make a reasonable call that Labour will be somewhere around that 60 seat margin, and National somewhere at or just below 40. “Around 60” seats, though, is actually poised on the knife’s edge of whether Labour gets 61 or more seats, or 60 or less.
I’m generally agreed that Labour would favour keeping the Greens close by picking out policies they like from our platform to continue an ongoing relationship, if you want any big-ticket items that Labour seems to find inconvenient, like say, actually putting any big policy into place after COVID, then whether the Greens have an actual negotiating position post-election is going to be hugely relevant- and that all hinges on whether Labour dip below that 61 MPs mark.
Digging into the modelling for a bit, we can see visually here that the balance is very tight:
In these simulations, the threshold was largely pretty consistent:
| Under Threshold: | Roy Morgan | Colmar Brunton | Reid Research |
| ACT Party | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% |
| New Zealand First | 100.0% | 99.4% | 100% |
| Green Party | 0% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
Finally, let’s have a look at the electorate shift modelling and which MPs might be in tomorrow. This looks manageable for both large parties:
Labour |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Jacinda Ardern | Mt Albert | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Kelvin Davis | Te Tai Tokerau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Grant Robertson | Wellington Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 4 | Phil Twyford | Te Atatū | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Megan Woods | Wigram | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Chris Hipkins | Remutaka | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Andrew Little | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Carmel Sepuloni | Kelston | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | David Parker | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Nanaia Mahuta | Hauraki-Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | Trevor Mallard | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 12 | Stuart Nash | Napier | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 13 | Jenny Salesa | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 14 | Damien O’Connor | West Coast-Tasman | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Kris Faafoi | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 16 | David Clark | Dunedin | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 17 | Ayesha Verrall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 18 | Peeni Henare | Tāmaki Makaurau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 19 | Willie Jackson | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 20 | Aupito William Sio | Māngere | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Poto Williams | Christchurch East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 22 | Vanushi Walters | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 23 | Michael Wood | Mt Roskill | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Adrian Rurawhe | Te Tai Hauāuru | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 25 | Kiri Allan | East Coast | Elected via list | Elected via list | Wins Electorate |
| 26 | Kieran McAnulty | Wairarapa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 27 | Louisa Wall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 28 | Meka Whaitiri | Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 29 | Rino Tirikatene | Te Tai Tonga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 30 | Camilla Belich | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 31 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan | Maungakiekie | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Jan Tinetti | Tauranga | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 33 | Deborah Russell | New Lynn | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 34 | Marja Lubeck | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 35 | Angie Warren-Clark | Bay of Plenty | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 36 | Willow-Jean Prime | Northland | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 37 | Tamati Coffey | Waiariki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Naisi Chen | Botany | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 39 | Jo Luxton | Rangitata | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 40 | Jamie Strange | Hamilton East | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 41 | Liz Craig | Invercargill | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 42 | Ibrahim Omer | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 43 | Duncan Webb | Christchurch Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 45 | Ginny Andersen | Hutt South | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 46 | Rachel Brooking | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 47 | Paul Eagle | Rongotai | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 48 | Helen White | Auckland Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 49 | Barbara Edmonds | Mana | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 50 | Angela Roberts | Taranaki-King Country | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 51 | Shanan Halbert | Northcote | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 52 | Neru Leavasa | Takanini | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 53 | Tracey McLellan | Banks Peninsula | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 54 | Lemauga Lydia Sosene | List | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 55 | Steph Lewis | Whanganui | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 56 | Dan Rosewarne | Waimakariri | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 57 | Rachel Boyack | Nelson | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 58 | Arena Williams | Manurewa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 59 | Ingrid Leary | Taieri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| … | |||||
| – | Greg O`Connor | Ōhariu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Anna Lorck | Tukituki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Tangi Utikere | Palmerston North | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
National |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Judith Collins | Papakura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Shane Reti | Whangārei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | Louise Upston | Taupō | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparāoa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 18 | Nick Smith | Nelson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Loses seat |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | List | Elected via list | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 22 | Johnathan Young | New Plymouth | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 26 | Nancy Lu | List | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 27 | Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatū | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikōura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 35 | Simon O’Connor | Tāmaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Ōhariu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitīkei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 40 | Matt King | Northland | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 42 | Tim Van de Molen | Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Mana | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| … | |||||
| 64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast | Wins Electorate | Not elected | Wins Electorate |
ACT |
||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | David Seymour (Epsom) | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Brooke van Velden | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Nicole McKee | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Chris Baillie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Simon Court | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | James McDowall | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Karen Chhour | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Mark Cameron | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Toni Severin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Damien Smith | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
Green |
|||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: | Roy Morgan: (Adjusted) |
| 1 | Marama Davidson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 2 | James Shaw | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Chlöe Swarbrick | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Julie Anne Genter | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Jan Logie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | Eugenie Sage | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Golriz Ghahraman | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Teanau Tuiono | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Elizabeth Kerekere | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Ricardo Menéndez March | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 11 | Steve Abel | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 12 | Teall Crossen | Not elected | Not elected | Elected via list | Not elected |
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On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia ...5 days ago
- Join us for a pop-up Hoon at 5pm on HYEFU
5 days ago - ‘Ideas Worth Saving’: A Call for Papers
Some years ago, I found myself pondering the power of literature to endure. Or at least the power of some of it to endure, while the rest vanishes in mere decades: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2019/08/07/look-on-my-works-ye-mighty-and-despair-the-literary-future/. I have similarly had fun with the subject in some of my short stories, such as Another Alexandria ...5 days ago - Corrections is torturing prisoners again
In 1998, in the wake of the Paremoremo Prison riot, the Department of Corrections established the "Behaviour Management Regime". Prisoners were locked in their cells for 22 or 23 hours a day, with no fresh air, no exercise, no social contact, no entertainment, and in some cases no clothes and ...5 days ago
- HYEFU and BPS data shows New Zealand is way off track
New data released by the Treasury shows that the economic policies of this Government have made things worse in the year since they took office, said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. “Our fiscal indicators are all heading in the wrong direction – with higher levels of debt, a higher deficit, and ...5 days ago
- “Better economic management”
At the 2023 election, National basically ran on a platform of being better economic managers. So how'd that turn out for us? In just one year, they've fucked us for two full political terms: The government's books are set to remain deeply in the red for the near term ...5 days ago
- Shameless, clueless
AUSTERITYText within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedMy spreadsheet insists This pain leads straight to glory (File not found) Read more ...5 days ago - Minimum wage ‘increase’ is an effective cut
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi are saying that the Government should do the right thing and deliver minimum wage increases that don’t see workers fall further behind, in response to today’s announcement that the minimum wage will only be increased by 1.5%, well short of forecast inflation. “With inflation forecast ...5 days ago
- Crazy ’bout a Sharp-dressed Man
Oh, I weptFor daysFilled my eyesWith silly tearsOh, yeaBut I don'tCare no moreI don't care ifMy eyes get soreSongwriters: Paul Rodgers / Paul Kossoff. Read more ...5 days ago - How much should you worry about a collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt?
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson In this aerial view, fingers of meltwater flow from the melting Isunnguata Sermia glacier descending from the Greenland Ice Sheet on July 11, 2024, near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. According to the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE), the ...5 days ago
- 8% ACT Party Creates One Ring To Rule Them All
In August, I wrote an article about David Seymour1 with a video of his testimony, to warn that there were grave dangers to his Ministry of Regulation:David Seymour's Ministry of Slush Hides Far Greater RisksWhy Seymour's exorbitant waste of taxpayers' money could be the least of concernThe money for Seymour ...5 days ago - When austerity worsens public debt & cuts GDP
Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKakaMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, December 17 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast ...5 days ago
- Govt to double number of toll roads
On Friday the government announced it would double the number of toll roads in New Zealand as well as make a few other changes to how toll roads are used in the country. The real issue though is not that tolling is being used but the suggestion it will make ...5 days ago
- Luxon’s pre-emptive strike
The Prime Minister yesterday engaged in what looked like a pre-emptive strike designed to counter what is likely to be a series of depressing economic statistics expected before the end of the week. He opened his weekly post-Cabinet press conference with a recitation of the Government’s achievements. “It certainly has ...6 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Coalition’s Empty Gestures, And Abortion Refusal As The New Slavery
This whooping cough story from south Auckland is a good example of the coalition government’s approach to social need – spend money on urging people to get vaccinated but only after you’ve cut the funding to where they could get vaccinated. This has been the case all year with public ...6 days ago
- More public service contempt of parliament
Back in 2023 the New Zealand Council for Civil Liberties raised concerns about the inherent conflict of interest involved in public service agencies supporting parliamentary select committees. Our parliament is run on a shoestring, so depends on the public service for advice. But public service agencies work for Ministers, not ...6 days ago
- If There Is A God
And if there is a GodI know he likes to rockHe likes his loud guitarsHis spiders from MarsAnd if there is a GodI know he's watching meHe likes what he seesBut there's trouble on the breezeSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan Read more ...6 days ago - A Lipstick Government
Here’s a quick round up of today’s political news:1. MORE FOOD BANKS, CHARITIES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SHELTERS AND YOUTH SOCIAL SERVICES SET TO CLOSE OR SCALE BACK AROUND THE COUNTRY AS GOVT CUTS FUNDINGSome of Auckland's largest foodbanks are warning they may need to close or significantly reduce food parcels after ...6 days ago - NZCTU open letter to Treasury on undue restrictions on restricted briefings
Iain Rennie, CNZMSecretary and Chief Executive to the TreasuryDear Secretary, Undue restrictions on restricted briefings This week, the Treasury barred representatives from four organisations, including the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi, from attending the restricted briefing for the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update. We had been ...6 days ago
- Why you won’t hear me advocate for electric cars
This is a guest post by Tim Adriaansen, a community, climate, and accessibility advocate. I won’t shut up about climate breakdown, and whenever possible I try to shift the focus of a climate conversation towards solutions. But you’ll almost never hear me give more than a passing nod to ...6 days ago
- Coalition forced to back down on tolling Pahiatua track
A grassroots backlash has forced a backdown from Brown, but he is still eyeing up plenty of tolls for other new roads. And the pressure is on Willis to ramp up the Government’s austerity strategy. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy ...6 days ago
- Thank You
Hi all,I'm pretty overwhelmed by all your messages and emails today; thank you so very much.As much as my newsletter this morning was about money, and we all need to earn money, it was mostly about world domination if I'm honest. 😉I really hate what’s happening to our country, and ...7 days ago - 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 8, 2024 thru Sat, December 14, 2024. Listing by Category Like last week's summary this one contains the list of articles twice: based on categories and based on ...7 days ago
- Making Gravy
I started writing this morning about Hobson’s Pledge, examining the claims they and their supporters make, basically ripping into them. But I kept getting notifications coming through, and not good ones.Each time I looked up, there was another un-subscription message, and I felt a bit sicker at the thought of ...1 week ago - Nothing here but the shadows
Once, long before there was Harry and Meghan and Dodi and all those episodes of The Crown, they came to spend some time with us, Charles and Diana. Was there anyone in the world more glamorous than the Princess of Wales?Dazzled as everyone was by their company, the leader of ...1 week ago - The United Right: the FSU’s Continued Efforts to Undermine Academia
The collective right have a problem.The entire foundation for their world view is antiscientific. Their preferred economic strategies have been disproven. Their whole neoliberal model faces accusations of corporate corruption and worsening inequality. Climate change not only definitely exists, its rapid progression demands an immediate and expensive response in order ...1 week ago
- Showing the Americans how to do it
Just ten days ago, South Korea's president attempted a self-coup, declaring martial law and attempting to have opposition MPs murdered or arrested in an effort to seize unconstrained power. The attempt was rapidly defeated by the national assembly voting it down and the people flooding the streets to defend democracy. ...1 week ago
- 2 Men, 1 Haircut
Hi,“What I love about New Zealanders is that sometimes you use these expressions that as Americans we have no idea what those things mean!"I am watching a 30-something year old American ramble on about how different New Zealanders are to Americans. It’s his podcast, and this man is doing a ...1 week ago - Chris Penk’s Hate Parade
What Chris Penk has granted holocaust-denier and equal-opportunity-bigot Candace Owens is not “freedom of speech”. It’s not even really freedom of movement, though that technically is the right she has been granted. What he has given her is permission to perform. Freedom of SpeechIn New Zealand, the right to freedom ...1 week ago - Tell me a story
All those tears on your cheeksJust like deja vu flow nowWhen grandmother speaksSo tell me a story (I'll tell you a story)Spell it out, I can't hear (What do you want to hear?)Why you wear black in the morning?Why there's smoke in the air? Songwriter: Greg Johnson.Mōrena all ☀️Something a ...1 week ago - As Our Power Lessens: Accepted
2024 is now officially my best-ever year for short stories. My 1,850-word dark fantasy piece, As Our Power Lessens, has been accepted for the upcoming solstice edition of Eternal Haunted Summer (https://eternalhauntedsummer.com/), thereby making that six published short stories for the calendar year. As always, see the Bibliography page for ...1 week ago
- National’s Greatest Misses 2023-4
National has only been in power for a year, but everywhere you look, its choices are taking New Zealand a long way backwards. In no particular order, here are the National Government's Top 50 Greatest Misses of its first year in power. ...2 days ago - Release: Minister’s plan for tertiary sector a backwards step
Returning to the model that was failing for most polytechnics and Institutes of Technology is not the answer. ...2 days ago
- Release: National buries 1019 planned homes
It’s been revealed that National has cancelled 60 percent of its housing projects planned before mid-2025 amidst housing woes. ...2 days ago
- Release: Rule-Czar bill a right-wing power grab
The Government is quietly undertaking consultation on the dangerous Regulatory Standards Bill over the Christmas period to avoid too much attention. ...2 days ago
- Release: Why not both? Luxon shuns Waitangi celebrations
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is running away from problems of his own creation, with his decision not to go to Waitangi. ...3 days ago
- Govt’s ‘free speech’ legislation stokes fear, not freedom
The Government’s planned changes to the freedom of speech obligations of universities is little more than a front for stoking the political fires of disinformation and fear, placing teachers and students in the crosshairs. ...3 days ago - Release: Nicola Willis spirals country deeper into recession
The economy shrank 1% this quarter and New Zealand has tumbled into the depths of a recession of Nicola Willis’ making. ...3 days ago
- Release: Hikes for company directors but not ordinary Kiwis
Working people are going backwards while company directors are being given huge pay hikes. ...4 days ago
- ECE no place to cut corners
The Ministry of Regulation’s report into Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Aotearoa raises serious concerns about the possibility of lowering qualification requirements, undermining quality and risking worse outcomes for tamariki, whānau, and kaiako. ...4 days ago
- Release: Strengthening Justice Services for New Zealanders
A Bill to modernise the role of Justices of the Peace (JP), ensuring they remain active in their communities and connected with other JPs, has been put into the ballot. ...4 days ago
- Release: Labour will continue fight against destructive projects
Labour will continue to fight unsustainable and destructive projects that are able to leap-frog environment protection under National’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. ...5 days ago
- Green Government will revoke dodgy fast-track projects
The Green Party has warned that a Green Government will revoke the consents of companies who override environmental protections as part of Fast-Track legislation being passed today. ...5 days ago
- Government for the wealthy keeps pushing austerity
The Green Party says the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows how the Government is failing to address the massive social and infrastructure deficits our country faces. ...5 days ago
- Release: Visa changes let migrant workers be paid less
The Government’s latest move to reduce the earnings of migrant workers will not only hurt migrants but it will drive down the wages of Kiwi workers. ...5 days ago
- Release: Nightmare before Christmas for Nicola Willis
With more debt and a larger deficit, Nicola Willis’ reputation is in tatters after her failure to return the Government’s books to surplus. ...5 days ago
- Warning to Fast-Track Applicants – ‘Exploit the Whenua, Face the Consequences’
Te Pāti Māori has this morning issued a stern warning to Fast-Track applicants with interests in mining, pledging to hold them accountable through retrospective liability and to immediately revoke Fast-Track consents under a future Te Pāti Māori government. This warning comes ahead of today’s third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals ...5 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts wages for lowest paid NZers… again
For the second year running, the government has effectively cut wages for the lowest paid workers in New Zealand. ...5 days ago
- Govt’s miserly 1.5% minimum wage will take workers backwards
The Government’s announcement today of a 1.5 per cent increase to minimum wage is another blow for workers, with inflation projected to exceed the increase, meaning it’s a real terms pay reduction for many. ...5 days ago
- Release: Govt shirking responsibility for rate hikes
All the Government has achieved from its announcement today is to continue to push responsibility back on councils for its own lack of action to help bring down skyrocketing rates. ...5 days ago
- Luxon’s ‘localism’ strikes again
The Government has used its final post-Cabinet press conference of the year to punch down on local government without offering any credible solutions to the issues our councils are facing. ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt breaks promise on EV chargers
The Government has failed to keep its promise to ‘super charge’ the EV network, delivering just 292 chargers - less than half of the 670 chargers needed to meet its target. ...6 days ago
- Greens call for end to subsidies for Methanex
The Green Party is calling for the Government to stop subsidising the largest user of the country’s gas supplies, Methanex, following a report highlighting the multi-national’s disproportionate influence on energy prices in Aotearoa. ...6 days ago
- Govt child poverty targets allow for increase in poverty
The Green Party is appalled with the Government’s new child poverty targets that are based on a new ‘persistent poverty’ measure that could be met even with an increase in child poverty. ...1 week ago
- Release: Four weeks annual leave under threat
The Government’s attack on workers continues with news it is scrapping work on the Holidays Act. ...1 week ago
- Govt’s emissions plan for measly 1% reduction
New independent analysis has revealed that the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) will reduce emissions by a measly 1 per cent by 2030, failing to set us up for the future and meeting upcoming targets. ...1 week ago
- Greens stand in solidarity with Whakaata Māori on sad day
The loss of 27 kaimahi at Whakaata Māori and the end of its daily news bulletin is a sad day for Māori media and another step backwards for Te Tiriti o Waitangi justice. ...1 week ago
- Sanctions regime to create more hardship for families
Yesterday the Government passed cruel legislation through first reading to establish a new beneficiary sanction regime that will ultimately mean more households cannot afford the basic essentials. ...1 week ago
- Govt gifts renters housing anxiety for Christmas
Today's passing of the Government's Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill–which allows landlords to end tenancies with no reason–ignores the voice of the people and leaves renters in limbo ahead of the festive season. ...1 week ago
- Release: National Party urged to support modern slavery legislation
Labour is urging the Prime Minister to walk the talk and support legislation combating modern slavery. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour has lost confidence in the Speaker
The Speaker of the New Zealand Parliament made an unprecedented decision on the government amendment to the Fast Track Approvals Bill last night. ...1 week ago
- One year on, still no progress on new ferries
Today’s announcement from the Government on its plan for new ferries throws more uncertainty on the future of the country’s rail network. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Nicola Willis’ smaller ferries will cost more
After wasting a year, Nicola Willis has delivered a worse deal for the Cook Strait ferries that will end up being more expensive and take longer to arrive. ...2 weeks ago
- Bill to sanction unlawful occupation of Palestine
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has today launched a Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the All Out For Gaza rally reaches Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour fully supports greyhound racing ban
The Government has done the right thing in moving to ban greyhound racing. ...2 weeks ago
- Greyhound racing industry ban marks new era for animal welfare
After years of advocacy, the Green Party is very happy to hear the Government has listened to our collective voices and announced the closure of the greyhound racing industry, by 1 August 2026. ...2 weeks ago
- Rangatahi voices must be centred in Government’s Relationship and Sexuality Education refresh
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt introduces archaic anti-worker legislation
The Green Party is appalled at the Government introducing legislation that will make it easier to penalise workers fighting for better pay and conditions. ...2 weeks ago
- Winston Peters – Kinleith Mill Speech
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you tonight on behalf of the political party I belong to - which is New Zealand First. As we have heard before this evening the Kinleith Mill is proposing to reduce operations by focusing on pulp and discontinuing “lossmaking paper production”. They say that they are currently consulting on the plan to permanently shut ...2 weeks ago - Swarbrick calls on Auckland Mayor to end delay of revival of St James Theatre
Auckland Central MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to Mayor Wayne Brown requesting he stop the unnecessary delays on St James Theatre’s restoration. ...2 weeks ago
- He Ara Anamata: Greens launch Emissions Reduction Plan
Today, the Green Party of Aotearoa proudly unveils its new Emissions Reduction Plan–He Ara Anamata–a blueprint reimagining our collective future. ...2 weeks ago
- Internationally-trained doctors jump at chance to boost health workforce
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says Health New Zealand will move swiftly to support dozens of internationally-trained doctors already in New Zealand on their journey to employment here, after a tripling of sought-after examination places. “The Medical Council has delivered great news for hardworking overseas doctors who want to contribute ...9 hours ago - PM appoints business leader to APEC Business Advisory Council
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...2 days ago
- New intelligence oversight appointments
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...2 days ago
- New housing developments able to progress more quickly
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...2 days ago
- Actions to speed up air travel delivering results
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...2 days ago
- Ending contracted emergency housing in Rotorua
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...2 days ago
- Vocational education and training decisions support return to regions
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...2 days ago
- Reducing the environmental impact of synthetic refrigerants
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...2 days ago
- Ngāruawāhia section of Waikato Expressway back to 4 lanes for Christmas
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...2 days ago
- Appointments to the ENZ board
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds, has announced a new appointment to the board of Education New Zealand (ENZ). Dr Erik Lithander has been appointed as a new member of the ENZ board for a three-year term until 30 January 2028. “I would like to welcome Dr Erik Lithander to the ...3 days ago
- Government to celebrate Waitangi Day around NZ
The Government will have senior representatives at Waitangi Day events around the country, including at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, but next year Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has chosen to take part in celebrations elsewhere. “It has always been my intention to celebrate Waitangi Day around the country with different ...3 days ago
- More gangs added to Gangs Act list
Two more criminal gangs will be subject to the raft of laws passed by the Coalition Government that give Police more powers to disrupt gang activity, and the intimidation they impose in our communities, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. Following an Order passed by Cabinet, from 3 February 2025 the ...3 days ago
- Judicial appointment announced
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Justice Christian Whata as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Whata’s appointment as a Judge of the Court of Appeal will take effect on 1 August 2025 and fill a vacancy created by the retirement of Hon Justice David Goddard on ...3 days ago
- GDP data highlights importance of growth
The latest economic figures highlight the importance of the steps the Government has taken to restore respect for taxpayers’ money and drive economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Data released today by Stats NZ shows Gross Domestic Product fell 1 per cent in the September quarter. “Treasury and most ...3 days ago
- Strengthening Free Speech in Universities
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Minister of Education David Seymour today announced legislation changes to strengthen freedom of speech obligations on universities. “Freedom of speech is fundamental to the concept of academic freedom and there is concern that universities seem to be taking a more risk-averse ...3 days ago
- Launch of Emergency Cellular Priority Service
Police Minister, Mark Mitchell, and Internal Affairs Minister, Brooke van Velden, today launched a further Public Safety Network cellular service that alongside last year’s Cellular Roaming roll-out, puts globally-leading cellular communications capability into the hands of our emergency responders. The Public Safety Network’s new Cellular Priority service means Police, Wellington ...3 days ago
- Minister reopens Mangamuka Gorge
State Highway 1 through the Mangamuka Gorge has officially reopened today, providing a critical link for Northlanders and offering much-needed relief ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“The Mangamuka Gorge is a vital route for Northland, carrying around 1,300 vehicles per day and connecting the Far ...3 days ago
- Funding confirmed for second Ashburton Bridge
The Government has welcomed decisions by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council confirming funding to boost resilience in the Canterbury region, with construction on a second Ashburton Bridge expected to begin in 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering a second Ashburton Bridge to improve resilience and ...3 days ago
- Government boosts support for avian influenza response
The Government is backing the response into high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Otago, Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says. “Cabinet has approved new funding of $20 million to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 ...3 days ago
- Levelling the playing field for media advertising
Legislation that will repeal all advertising restrictions for broadcasters on Sundays and public holidays has passed through first reading in Parliament today, Media Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As a growing share of audiences get their news and entertainment from streaming services, these restrictions have become increasingly redundant. New Zealand on ...4 days ago
- Inspector-General of Defence appointed
Today the House agreed to Brendan Horsley being appointed Inspector-General of Defence, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Mr Horsley’s experience will be invaluable in overseeing the establishment of the new office and its support networks. “He is currently Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, having held that role since June 2020. ...4 days ago
- Fire and Emergency New Zealand final levy rates confirmed
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the final regulations for the levy on insurance contracts that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand from July 2026. “Earlier this year the Government agreed to a 2.2 percent increase to the rate of levy. Fire ...4 days ago
- More AML relief on the way for Kiwi businesses
The Government is delivering regulatory relief for New Zealand businesses through changes to the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. “The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Amendment Bill, which was introduced today, is the second Bill – the other being the Statutes Amendment Bill - that ...4 days ago
- Hawke’s Bay Expressway moving at pace
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed further progress on the Hawke’s Bay Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS), with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board approving funding for the detailed design of Stage 1, paving the way for main works construction to begin in late 2025.“The Government is moving at ...4 days ago
- Government seeks partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned-land
The Government today released a request for information (RFI) to seeking interest in partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned land with low farming and conservation value (excluding National Parks) Forestry Minister Todd McClay announced. “Planting trees on Crown-owned land will drive economic growth by creating more forestry jobs in our regions, providing more wood ...4 days ago
- Wide ranging legislation to make justice system more efficient
Court timeliness, access to justice, and improving the quality of existing regulation are the focus of a series of law changes introduced to Parliament today by Associate Minister of Justice Nicole McKee. The three Bills in the Regulatory Systems (Justice) Amendment Bill package each improve a different part of the ...4 days ago
- Diverse skills in community trust appointments
A total of 41 appointments and reappointments have been made to the 12 community trusts around New Zealand that serve their regions, Associate Finance Minister Shane Jones says. “These trusts, and the communities they serve from the Far North to the deep south, will benefit from the rich experience, knowledge, ...4 days ago
- Torture redress for survivors of the Lake Alice Unit
The Government has confirmed how it will provide redress to survivors who were tortured at the Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital Child and Adolescent Unit (the Lake Alice Unit). “The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care found that many of the 362 children who went through the Lake Alice Unit between 1972 and ...4 days ago
- A busy year in the House
It has been a busy, productive year in the House as the coalition Government works hard to get New Zealand back on track, Leader of the House Chris Bishop says. “This Government promised to rebuild the economy, restore law and order and reduce the cost of living. Our record this ...4 days ago
- Consultation opens on working with engineered stone
“Accelerated silicosis is an emerging occupational disease caused by unsafe work such as engineered stone benchtops. I am running a standalone consultation on engineered stone to understand what the industry is currently doing to manage the risks, and whether further regulatory intervention is needed,” says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister ...4 days ago
- Greater reporting on Treaty settlement commitments
Mehemea he pai mō te tangata, mahia – if it’s good for the people, get on with it. Enhanced reporting on the public sector’s delivery of Treaty settlement commitments will help improve outcomes for Māori and all New Zealanders, Māori Crown Relations Minister Tama Potaka says. Compiled together for the ...4 days ago
- New appointments to the Charities Registration Board
Mr Roger Holmes Miller and Ms Tarita Hutchinson have been appointed to the Charities Registration Board, Community and Voluntary Sector Minister Louise Upston says. “I would like to welcome the new members joining the Charities Registration Board. “The appointment of Ms Hutchinson and Mr Miller will strengthen the Board’s capacity ...4 days ago
- Building consent processing times improve
More building consent and code compliance applications are being processed within the statutory timeframe since the Government required councils to submit quarterly data, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “In the midst of a housing shortage we need to look at every step of the build process for efficiencies ...4 days ago
- Faster access to support through Innovation Fund
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is proud to announce the first three recipients of the Government’s $10 million Mental Health and Addiction Community Sector Innovation Fund which will enable more Kiwis faster access to mental health and addiction support. “This fund is part of the Government’s commitment to investing in ...4 days ago
- New Zealand to assist Vanuatu on earthquake response
New Zealand is providing Vanuatu assistance following yesterday's devastating earthquake, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. "Vanuatu is a member of our Pacific family and we are supporting it in this time of acute need," Mr Peters says. "Our thoughts are with the people of Vanuatu, and we will be ...4 days ago
- Government takes steps to reduce card fees for Kiwis
The Government welcomes the Commerce Commission’s plan to reduce card fees for Kiwis by an estimated $260 million a year, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.“The Government is relentlessly focused on reducing the cost of living, so Kiwis can keep more of their hard-earned income and live a ...4 days ago
- Review recommends ECE regulation shakeup
Regulation Minister David Seymour has welcomed the Early Childhood Education (ECE) regulatory review report, the first major report from the Ministry for Regulation. The report makes 15 recommendations to modernise and simplify regulations across ECE so services can get on with what they do best – providing safe, high-quality care ...5 days ago
- Offshore Renewable Energy Bill passes first reading
The Government‘s Offshore Renewable Energy Bill to create a new regulatory regime that will enable firms to construct offshore wind generation has passed its first reading in Parliament, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says.“New Zealand currently does not have a regulatory regime for offshore renewable energy as the previous government failed ...5 days ago
- Local Government (Water Services) Bill passes first reading
Legislation to enable new water service delivery models that will drive critical investment in infrastructure has passed its first reading in Parliament, marking a significant step towards the delivery of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly say.“Councils and voters ...5 days ago
- Gene Technology Bill passes first reading
New Zealand is one step closer to reaping the benefits of gene technology with the passing of the first reading of the Gene Technology Bill, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. "This legislation will end New Zealand's near 30-year ban on gene technology outside the lab and is ...5 days ago
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Matt, thank you for pulling all this together.
No problem, it's been a rush for me with a lot in my personal life, but I've been trying to make time to do this analysis for everyone. I've got them all up on twitter under #nzpoll, but not all of them made it to this site unfortunately.
Very glad I could get the last three in on time.
Note for those who haven't read the election day info: Pre-moderation will switch on during the regulated election day period. If you're seeing others' comments posted but yours aren't showing up, this is why. You don't need to submit them again. 🙂
Even better than that – in theory the ability to leave a comment on anything except the two designated moderated posts will disappear between 0000 and 1900. A subtle reminder for commenters 🙂
Thanks for this post. It is interesting to see just how knife-edge the Labour-Green option is based on the polls.
And I love that there is currently no probability based on the polls for National or Act to be in a government (unless Jacinda and the Labour caucus insanely ask them to be there).
I'm kinda loving that NZF haven't had a last-minute surge, or rather, that they've had it and it was… 1% extra, lol.
Thanks for the correction Lynn, even better!
I've always been ambiguous about NZF. They are a pain, and even more so since Shane Jones (all mouth and no oomph) wound up there.
But as you point out, having them long-term limits the level of Labour and National completely focusing on chasing the centre votes.
the odds at the bookies speak for themselves –National is toast
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/new-zealand-general-election-2020-next-sworn-in-government-4933767
New Zealand Labour Party @ 1.05
New Zealand National Party @ 10.00
Bet you not one National MP has placed a bet on their own party ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2020-matthew-hooton-national-set-for-third-defeat-in-2023
history will repeat itself over the next three years. National MPs will refuse to accept the public’s verdict, and decline to engage with new ideas or even contemporary New Zealand attitudes. They will resolve again to sit back smugly and wait for Ardern to fail
Why would you pay out anything for a labour government at this stage, lol, basically free money. 😉
If anyone had trouble reading the graphs on the original version of this post, I've updated it so that all the shrunken ones (the first six) can be clicked-through to the full scale file. I had forgotten the editor doesn't default to that, sorry!
Juuuusst in the nick of time !
https://twitter.com/swordfish7774/status/1317055908648636417
Remember … the preliminary Election Night result won’t be precisely the same as Final tally.