Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush
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10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first -
Tags: approval polling, colmar brunton, electorates, newshub, party lists, polling, pollwatch, reid research, roy morgan, tvnz
All three major pollsters have delivered their final results within two days of election day, giving us a nice picture into what the spread of results tomorrow could look like, with the trend looking good for some sort of centre-left government, but a majority government result for labour still barely on the cards in all three results.
NZF is outside of the margin of error of the 5% threshold in all of these polls- they would need a significant surge in the last two days to have made it back into Parliament, so it’s looking like it may be the second time they drop out. While good in theory, in practice this is likely to heighten Labour and National’s battle for centrist swing voters until a new party that can sit in the ground between them to some extent emerges.
While the Māori party isn’t registering particularly well in the party vote, I’d keep my eyes on the electorates where their co-leaders are running in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makarau.
While the Greens scored heavily in the Roy Morgan as usual, which often overestimates them, to the point I’ve taken to adjusting down 70% of the result over 5% in order to have it comparable to the other two polls, Colmar Brunton also gave a really strong Green result, although Reid Research didn’t, and when adjusted this way, the Roy Morgan poll looks a lot like the Reid Research one for the Greens, so there’s a big difference between potentially as few as eight or as many as twelve MPs for them depending on how you count.
Also worth noting is that there’s some leader Approval data in the Colmar Brunton poll: Ardern’s net approval is still very strong at a rounded +55%, (74%-20%) and Collins is doing better than previous National Leaders, but still barely struggling through, at +6%, although compared to Bridges, she’ll be glad her head is above water- for no. (45%-39%)
The trend for Labour and National is relatively stable now, which is actually good news- means we can make a reasonable call that Labour will be somewhere around that 60 seat margin, and National somewhere at or just below 40. “Around 60” seats, though, is actually poised on the knife’s edge of whether Labour gets 61 or more seats, or 60 or less.
I’m generally agreed that Labour would favour keeping the Greens close by picking out policies they like from our platform to continue an ongoing relationship, if you want any big-ticket items that Labour seems to find inconvenient, like say, actually putting any big policy into place after COVID, then whether the Greens have an actual negotiating position post-election is going to be hugely relevant- and that all hinges on whether Labour dip below that 61 MPs mark.
Digging into the modelling for a bit, we can see visually here that the balance is very tight:
In these simulations, the threshold was largely pretty consistent:
| Under Threshold: | Roy Morgan | Colmar Brunton | Reid Research |
| ACT Party | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% |
| New Zealand First | 100.0% | 99.4% | 100% |
| Green Party | 0% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
Finally, let’s have a look at the electorate shift modelling and which MPs might be in tomorrow. This looks manageable for both large parties:
Labour |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Jacinda Ardern | Mt Albert | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Kelvin Davis | Te Tai Tokerau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Grant Robertson | Wellington Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 4 | Phil Twyford | Te Atatū | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Megan Woods | Wigram | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Chris Hipkins | Remutaka | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Andrew Little | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Carmel Sepuloni | Kelston | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | David Parker | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Nanaia Mahuta | Hauraki-Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | Trevor Mallard | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 12 | Stuart Nash | Napier | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 13 | Jenny Salesa | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 14 | Damien O’Connor | West Coast-Tasman | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Kris Faafoi | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 16 | David Clark | Dunedin | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 17 | Ayesha Verrall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 18 | Peeni Henare | Tāmaki Makaurau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 19 | Willie Jackson | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 20 | Aupito William Sio | Māngere | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Poto Williams | Christchurch East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 22 | Vanushi Walters | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 23 | Michael Wood | Mt Roskill | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Adrian Rurawhe | Te Tai Hauāuru | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 25 | Kiri Allan | East Coast | Elected via list | Elected via list | Wins Electorate |
| 26 | Kieran McAnulty | Wairarapa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 27 | Louisa Wall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 28 | Meka Whaitiri | Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 29 | Rino Tirikatene | Te Tai Tonga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 30 | Camilla Belich | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 31 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan | Maungakiekie | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Jan Tinetti | Tauranga | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 33 | Deborah Russell | New Lynn | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 34 | Marja Lubeck | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 35 | Angie Warren-Clark | Bay of Plenty | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 36 | Willow-Jean Prime | Northland | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 37 | Tamati Coffey | Waiariki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Naisi Chen | Botany | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 39 | Jo Luxton | Rangitata | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 40 | Jamie Strange | Hamilton East | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 41 | Liz Craig | Invercargill | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 42 | Ibrahim Omer | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 43 | Duncan Webb | Christchurch Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 45 | Ginny Andersen | Hutt South | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 46 | Rachel Brooking | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 47 | Paul Eagle | Rongotai | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 48 | Helen White | Auckland Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 49 | Barbara Edmonds | Mana | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 50 | Angela Roberts | Taranaki-King Country | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 51 | Shanan Halbert | Northcote | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 52 | Neru Leavasa | Takanini | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 53 | Tracey McLellan | Banks Peninsula | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 54 | Lemauga Lydia Sosene | List | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
| 55 | Steph Lewis | Whanganui | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 56 | Dan Rosewarne | Waimakariri | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 57 | Rachel Boyack | Nelson | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 58 | Arena Williams | Manurewa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 59 | Ingrid Leary | Taieri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| … | |||||
| – | Greg O`Connor | Ōhariu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Anna Lorck | Tukituki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| – | Tangi Utikere | Palmerston North | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
National |
|||||
| No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | Judith Collins | Papakura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 5 | Shane Reti | Whangārei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 9 | Louise Upston | Taupō | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparāoa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 18 | Nick Smith | Nelson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Loses seat |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | List | Elected via list | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 22 | Johnathan Young | New Plymouth | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 26 | Nancy Lu | List | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 27 | Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatū | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikōura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 35 | Simon O’Connor | Tāmaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Ōhariu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| 37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitīkei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 40 | Matt King | Northland | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 42 | Tim Van de Molen | Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Mana | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
| … | |||||
| 64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast | Wins Electorate | Not elected | Wins Electorate |
ACT |
||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
| 1 | David Seymour (Epsom) | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
| 2 | Brooke van Velden | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Nicole McKee | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Chris Baillie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Simon Court | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | James McDowall | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Karen Chhour | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Mark Cameron | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Toni Severin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Damien Smith | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
Green |
|||||
| No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: | Roy Morgan: (Adjusted) |
| 1 | Marama Davidson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 2 | James Shaw | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 3 | Chlöe Swarbrick | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 4 | Julie Anne Genter | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 5 | Jan Logie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 6 | Eugenie Sage | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 7 | Golriz Ghahraman | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 8 | Teanau Tuiono | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 9 | Elizabeth Kerekere | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
| 10 | Ricardo Menéndez March | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 11 | Steve Abel | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
| 12 | Teall Crossen | Not elected | Not elected | Elected via list | Not elected |
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Just let them walk all over youLaugh through the punches and the painLet the life-blood drain away from youThey're right, you're wrongAnd you can see it in the way they look at youFeel it in the way they treat youAlways the last to knowAlways the first to leaveBetween Two Points ...5 days ago- Economic Bulletin November 2024
The post Economic Bulletin November 2024 appeared first on NZCTU. ...5 days ago- Weekly Roundup 7-November-2024
Happy Friday, there’s been some significant world events this week but welcome to another round-up of interesting stories about what’s happening in Auckland and other cities. Feel free to add your links in the comments! This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew ...6 days ago- The Hoon around the week to November 8
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate news, including how Donald Trump’s re-election and sweep of the Congress changes the equations; on the US ...6 days ago- It’s OK To Feel Shitty
Hi,For any of you panicking, Webworm is not going to become a newsletter endlessly ranting about the results of this week’s US election.We’ll get back to Luka Magnotta sending me letters from prison and Hare Krishna’s calling me “c**t face” eventually, but just bare with me as I wrap my ...6 days ago- Curbing the power of the Beehive
The Constitutional Lw Professor and former Prime Minister, Sir Geoffrey Palmer, yesterday pointed out an anomaly in what is supposed to be Parliament’s gold-standard legislation to empower itself.The Parliament Bill is currently before a special Select Committee chaired by the former Speaker, Adrian Ruawhe and aims to simplify the legislation ...6 days ago- Geoffrey Miller: Trump victory could spark New Zealand rethink at APEC in Peru
Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has set the stage for this year’s APEC summit in Peru. At least 14 leaders have so far confirmed their attendance at the leaders’ summit in Lima from November 15-16. China’s Xi Jinping, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Canada’s Justin Trudeau will all ...6 days ago- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2024
Open access notables Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States, Zhuang et al., Science Advances: Historically, meteorological drought in the western United States (WUS) has been driven primarily by precipitation deficits. However, our observational analysis shows that, since around 2000, rising surface ...6 days ago- Cheap distracting games
Sometimes it’s hard to stop doomscrolling. One thing that can help is having something else to focus on, like video games! I’m not exactly the most tuned in to the industry, but I follow enough variety content creators to know of a pretty decent range of games that are easy ...6 days ago- Climate Change: Raising the bar
One of the obligations of the Paris Climate Change Agreement is for every country to set a "Nationally Determined Contribution" - an NDC - of emissions cuts. The Key government initially set an unambitious NDC of a 30% cut (from 2005 levels) by 2030. The Ardern government later increased this ...6 days ago- Join us for the weekly Hoon on YouTube Live at 5pm
Photo by Julian Zwengel on UnsplashWe’re back. Come and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news with special guests:5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - ...6 days ago- Don’t think I’ve ever moved through the stages of grief so swiftly
I spent yesterday afternoon watching the New York Times election dashboard needle steadily move towards the worst possible result. It was more or less the same dashboard they had in 2016, and it was telling more or less the same tale. You end up hating the NYT and its damn ...6 days ago- This One’s Just For You, Martyn.
Hard Hat & A HammerAlan JacksonVideo courtesy of YouTubePosted on Bowalley Road on Thursday, 7 November 2024. ...6 days ago- The Age of (Dis)Information
Don’t want to be an American idiotOne nation controlled by the mediaInformation age of hysteriaIs calling out to idiot America—Greenday, American IdiotSapphi’s Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.What just happened?Nothing. Yesterday was a momentous election. The ...6 days ago- Drawn
A ballot for two Member's Bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Employment Relations (Termination of Employment by Agreement) Amendment Bill (Laura Trask) Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill (Kahurangi Carter) The first is ACT bullshit aimed at undermining basic employment rights. The ...6 days ago- The planet is ‘on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster,’ scientists warn
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A person rides past a destroyed church in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene flooding on October 6, 2024, in Swannanoa, North Carolina. Scientists say that climate change increased the storm’s deadly rainfall by about 10%. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images) Earth’s ...7 days ago- Making America Gross Again
I should be crying, but I just can't let it showI should be hoping, but I can't stop thinkingOf all the things I should've saidThat I never saidAll the things we should've doneThat we never didAll the things I should've givenBut I didn'tOh, darling, make it goMake it go awaySongwriter: ...7 days ago- The Day After
This morning, there will be plenty of reflections on why and how Donald J. Trump won the US election for a second time.Melania agrees to hold her husband’s hand after his historic victoryThere will be pithy lines, astute observations, and anger and disbelief from some. And for others, celebration - ...7 days ago- Throwback Thursday: 10 Years
At the start of 2018, Patrick penned this post thinking about how Auckland might look in 10 years. We are almost 7 years through that, and so we thought it might be interesting to think about what came true, and what was unforeseen? What has changed in Auckland and does ...7 days ago- What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for us financially
Trump busts out his signature move at a celebratory election night party. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 7: Donald Trump’s re-election as US President overnight has already driven global ...7 days ago- This Time America Knew What It Was Doing
Hi,I was at a dive bar in Los Angeles in 2016 when Donald Trump won last time, and it was a big surprise. Fuck, it was a big surprise for Trump.I distinctly remember getting that feeling you tend to get in your guts when a bad thing happens that you ...7 days ago- Hellbender
2021, directed by the Adams family A fun thing about Hellbender is that it was created by a married couple, John Adams and Toby Posey (to clarify, Toby is a woman) and their two daughters Zelda and Lulu. Zelda and Toby play the two main characters and Lulu the main ...7 days ago- Trump’s Comeback: It’s a new, strongman era, ‘whether they like it or not’
He’s done it. The re-election of Donald Trump as US president is a massive shift in US and global politics. Cool heads and steely-eyes are called for at momentous times such as this, but those steely eyes would have to be closed tight not to see this is a moment ...7 days ago- Gordon Campbell on abortion’s role in the US election
Yesterday, America moved decisively to the right not only politically, but socially and economically. This rightwards shift was evident not merely in the red states and seven “battleground” states – every one of which Trump has almost certainly ended up winning – but also in the Democratic heartland. There was ...7 days ago- He’s Back: Donald II: The Trumpening
As I write this, the media have just declared Pennsylvania for Trump. To be honest, I had been expecting a Second Trump Administration for months – though I was open to a pleasant surprise. It’s just that I had imagined something much closer than the actual result, something akin to ...7 days ago- Today Feels Like D-Day
Except it’s not.D-Day was in 1944 when over 156,000 Allied Forces, including individual Kiwis, stormed five beaches in Normandy to fight the Nazi regime.The thought of the reality of war makes me feel emotional. It’s the height of human conflict and violence and the culmination of ignorance over coming together ...1 week ago- Member’s Day
Today is a Member's Day. First up is the committee stage of Teanau Tuiono's Restoring Citizenship Removed By Citizenship (Western Samoa) Act 1982 Bill. This will be followed by the second reading of Rima Nakhle's Corrections (Victim Protection) Amendment Bill. And then, finally, the House will get on to some ...1 week ago- End the government, not te Tiriti
For the last few months the Waitangi Tribunal has been holding an urgent inquiry into National's "Treaty Principles Bill". They've already issued one interim report, declaring it to be a steaming pile of racist horseshit, but the inquiry is still going on to determine just how big and how steaming ...1 week ago- 26,000 unemployed under National
The latest labour market statistics have dropped, showing another rise in unemployment. There are now 148,000 unemployed - 26,000 more than when National took office. ...which is what happens when you sack thousands of public servants and have the Reserve Bank crash the economy. This is apparently the most severe ...1 week ago- How our housing market distorts education too
1 week ago- What should AT do with PT for Whangaparaoa after Penlink Opens
Auckland Transport created a bit of a kerfuffle with Whangaparaoa residents last year with the suggestion the the Gulf Harbour ferry could be stopped after Penlink opened. Now they’re asking for feedback on how public transport services should work in the future and giving three options. People on the Whangaparāoa ...1 week ago - Sifting through the wreckage.
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 day ago - Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 day ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 day ago - Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 days ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 days ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 days ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...5 days ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...5 days ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...6 days ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...6 days ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...6 days ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...6 days ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...6 days ago
- Release: Winston Peters must apologise
The Deputy Prime Minister should apologise to the public servant he named and blamed for something they did not do, and for misusing the rules of Parliament. ...1 week ago
- Release: Government continues to fail small business
The Government is leaving small businesses high and dry in difficult economic times, by letting big business get away with not paying their bills. ...1 week ago
- Release: Unemployment rising under National
Nicola Willis’ policies continue to slow the economy with more Kiwis out of work as a result. ...1 week ago
- Near four-year high unemployment reveals dire need for new direction
Today, Statistics New Zealand’s latest labour market report revealed that unemployment has reached 4.8 per cent, the highest rate since late 2020, during the COVID pandemic. ...1 week ago
- Release: Shovels in the ground this term unlikely
National looks set to break another election promise, this time by not beginning construction on a second Mt Victoria tunnel this term, Labour transport spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...1 week ago
- Not too late to abandon the Bill, Christopher
The Green Party is urgently calling on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill following reports it will be introduced on Thursday. ...1 week ago
- Coalition Govt’s expensive tunnel vision for Wellington comes at the expense of the regions
A second Mount Victoria tunnel, a duplicate Terrace tunnel alongside highway widening will dump more traffic in the centre of Wellington and result in more pollution. ...1 week ago
- Release: Government’s disgrace for Christchurch homeowners
The Government is backtracking on existing commitments to do the right thing by homeowners let down by EQC (now the Natural Hazards Commission). ...1 week ago
- Release: National’s FamilyBoost a colossal flop
Nicola Willis continues to over promise and under deliver, with most families receiving only $30 a week from National’s flagship FamilyBoost flop. ...1 week ago
- Ngarewa-Packer Demands Support for Palestine Ceasefire from New Plymouth Mayor
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is calling on the Mayor for New Plymouth, Neil Holdom, to do the right thing. “I am shocked at his decision to disregard the petition presented by Palestine Solidarity Taranaki calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire”, said ...1 week ago
- Release: Trade deal with Gulf states welcomed
Labour welcomes the conclusion of a trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that was restarted under a Labour government after languishing for many years. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour welcomes OAG fast track inquiry
The Government should consider the outcome of an Auditor-General report into conflicts of interest before progressing the Fast track Approvals Bill through Parliament. ...1 week ago
- Greens reignite call for free dental
A new report detailing the enormous social and economic costs of our dental system has reignited the Greens' call for free dental care. ...1 week ago
- Greens call for bottom trawling ban and call out Minister for lacklustre response
The Green Party is urgently calling on the Government to ban bottom trawling, following news a New Zealand bottom trawler caught 37kg of coral in international waters, prompting the suspension of all fishing in the area until 2026. ...2 weeks ago
- Mark Patterson: Farmers understand we have their backs
Spring is here which means the start of the A&P show season. Those treasured community days where town meets country. There's no rural-urban divide here, just a chance to meet up with family and old friends and celebrate all things that make rural New Zealand so special. I'm embarking on ...2 weeks ago - Release: Funding for Gumboot Friday should pause
The National Government should review its support for Gumboot Friday after unacceptable comments by its leader and champion Mike King. ...2 weeks ago
- Louise Upston cherry-picks data to punch down on the poor
The Government has very conveniently cherry-picked data from the latest MSD projections to justify its cruel agenda and punch-down policy when it comes to people living in poverty. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon needs to address the cow in the room
The Green Party was appalled to hear Prime Minister Christopher Luxon claim we are “doing everything we can” on climate change, while his government does nothing to address emissions in our most polluting sector. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt Must Clean Up ‘Its Shit’ From Sunken HMNZS Manawanui
Te Pāti Māori is calling out the Government and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) for their inaction and disgraceful downplaying of the impact caused by the sunken HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa. “We demand the Government move without further delay to clean up its shit from the sunken HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa,” said co-leader Debbie ...2 weeks ago
- Jamie Arbuckle: Inquiry into Banking Competition
This week was the start of the bank inquiry hearings into banking competition. The inquiry was confirmed in the NZ First/National Coalition agreement. 140 submissions were received on the inquiry, and we will hear from over 60 submitters including all the major banks. ANZ, New Zealand's largest bank, was first ...2 weeks ago
- Tanya Unkovich: It’s time to start the debate on palliative care as a ‘right’
There is one topic that is the great human leveller, and that is of death and dying. One day, we will all have to face it, and I am of the belief that being able to pass away with grace and dignity is a vital, basic, human right. How we ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Labour backs Christchurch City Council sanctions on Israel
Labour is backing Christchurch City Council’s decision not to do business with firms involved in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Territories. ...3 weeks ago
- Pay Gap Calculator toolkit launched
New Zealand businesses can now take meaningful action to drive down the gender pay gap with the launch of an online calculator today, Minister for Women Nicola Grigg says. “Women are paid, on average, 8.2 per cent less than men and this gap has barely moved since 2017 - which ...5 hours ago - Government launches refreshed Public Private Partnership framework
The Government has released a refreshed Public Private Partnership (PPP) framework that provides a blueprint to the market outlining how the government will approach future PPP transactions, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop and Parliamentary Under-Secretary Simon Court say. “Refreshing New Zealand’s PPP model is an important part of our plan to ...7 hours ago
- Further decisions taken on regulating online casino gambling
Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to further details of a new system to regulate online casino gambling. “A new Online Gambling Bill will be drafted with the purpose to regulate online casino gambling to facilitate a safer and compliant regulated online gambling market. More importantly, ...10 hours ago
- Tailored support for people in emergency housing
Ka mate kāinga tahi, ka ora kāinga rua. An innovative Government trial will tailor support to people with a diverse range of complex needs to move out of emergency housing and into more permanent housing, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “The Government has set a target of reducing the ...11 hours ago
- Getting ready for bird flu
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard is encouraging New Zealanders to take steps to be ready for the possible arrival of bird flu.“While high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) is still some distance from New Zealand and we’ve never had a case here, it’s important that we take a cautious approach. “If you’re one ...11 hours ago
- Harbour closure supports mussel reseeding
A two-year ban on the take of kuku/mussels from Ōhiwa Harbour in eastern Bay of Plenty will support local efforts to restore mussel beds in the area, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Awa requested the closure, Te rāhui kuku ki tua o Kanawa, to ...13 hours ago
- Government awards primary sector scholarships to tertiary students
The coalition Government has awarded scholarships to six tertiary students as part of efforts to boost on-the-ground support for farmers and growers Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “We are reducing the regulatory burden on farmers and growers and providing support to adapt and innovate, ...13 hours ago
- Tax work programme focused on rebuilding the economy
Rebuilding the economy and improving fiscal sustainability is the key focus of the Government’s new Tax and Social Policy Work Programme for Inland Revenue, Revenue Minister Simon Watts says. “New Zealand has been grappling with significant economic challenges over the last few years with many businesses and households feeling the ...14 hours ago
- Omnibus Bill First Reading for Royal Commission of Inquiry National Apology
Mr Speaker, as the Minister for Children, it is my priority to ensure that children and young people in the care system are safe. The thousands of survivors who shared their experiences with the Royal Commission have been clear that the system must improve its protections against abuse and neglect. ...1 day ago
- Clarifying the protection of disabled people in care
The Government is amending the Crimes Act to ensure the protection of disabled people in care is made more explicit, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As part of the Government’s response to the recommendations of the Abuse in Care Royal Commission, the word ‘disability’ is being added to the definition ...1 day ago
- Oranga Tamariki Act changes a step in the right direction
Changes to the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 included in an Omnibus Bill are long overdue and a positive step in the right direction, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. As part of the National Apology today, the Responding to Abuse in Care Legislation Amendment Bill had its first reading. “I am ...1 day ago
- Improvements to Government record-keeping in response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government is making changes to the Public Records Act, to improve the record-keeping practices of government agencies. “These changes will allow the Chief Archivist to audit an agency more frequently where required and will also allow the Chief Archivist to work ...1 day ago
- Minister Peters completes successful visit to Chile
New Zealand and Chile have reaffirmed their strong partnership, including on security, trade, Antarctic issues, and people-to-people links, says Foreign Minister Winston Peters. “Chile is one of New Zealand’s closest and most like-minded partners in Latin America, and it is the gateway to the region for many New Zealanders,” Mr ...1 day ago
- ‘Foreign policy views from an Indo-Pacific neighbour’ – Speech on New Zealand fore...
Kia ora. Tēnā koutou katoa. And greetings from New Zealand. Thank you to Rector Devés and the University of Chile for hosting us today, and to Undersecretary de la Fuente and Professor López for the warm welcome and introductions. When a much younger person, walking on a bridge ...1 day ago
- Prime Minister apologises for abuse in care
Ngā kura mōrehu, Treasured survivors, kua ngaro, haere atu rā. those that have passed, farewell. Ngā kura mōrehu, Treasured survivors E whakawhaiti nei that have gathered here. Kei ngā rangatira To the esteemed leaders Tēnā koutou katoa. Greetings. I’d like to welcome you ...1 day ago
- Government apologises for abuse in care
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has apologised to all New Zealanders who were abused in the care of state and faith-based institutions. “This is a significant and sorrowful day in New Zealand,” Mr Luxon says. “Today, I am apologising on behalf of the Government to everyone who suffered abuse, harm and ...1 day ago
- Climate Change Minister to attend COP29 in Baku
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will attend the 29th annual United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, this week. “New Zealand is fully committed to meeting our climate targets and reducing the impacts of climate change. Every country has a role to play, and New Zealand will continue ...2 days ago
- Crown Observer appointed to Wellington City Council
Experienced local government practitioner Lindsay McKenzie has been appointed as a Crown Observer to Wellington City Council, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Wellington City Council is facing significant challenges in delivering services to its community, while balancing its debt and insurance obligations,” Mr Brown says.“The decision to appoint a Crown ...2 days ago
- Govt strengthens protection for people in state care
The Government is introducing several law changes to better protect people in state care, in response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. “The magnitude of the abuse detailed by the Royal Commission of Inquiry was heartbreaking, and as a Government we will do everything in our ...2 days ago
- Prime Minister to attend APEC Leaders’ Meeting
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon departs for Peru this week to attend the annual APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting from 15-16 November. “The APEC Summit is a key moment in the regional calendar. It’s an opportunity to meet with counterparts who are also grappling with cost-of-living challenges and choices about driving more ...2 days ago
- First kina barren special permit approved
New rules allowing local communities to take direct action against kina barrens are starting to bear fruit, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “I’ve made kina barrens a priority, which is why I introduced a new special permit purpose this year to allow the removal and translocation of kina ...2 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti from 13 November
The new 110km/h speed limit on the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) will come into effect on 13 November 2024, more than two weeks earlier than expected, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Boosting economic growth and productivity is a priority for the Government. The new 110km/h speed limit will ...2 days ago
- Largest ever number of graduate vets to boost rural productivity and support farmers
Thirty-five graduate vets will join rural communities this year through the Voluntary Bonding Scheme (VBS) for Veterinarians, marking the largest intake in the scheme’s history, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, and Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard, announced today. “The Government is committed to enhancing primary sector productivity and delivering direct benefits ...3 days ago
- Stalking to become illegal and jailable offence
The Government has agreed to introduce legislation this year that will make stalking illegal with a maximum penalty of up to five years in prison, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Every New Zealander deserves to feel safe in their community and this Government is committed to making sure victims are ...3 days ago
- Nationally significant sites to be upgraded
Me mihi ngakaunui ki a Tā Robert Gillies e ngaro nei ki tōna nui o Te Rua Tekau Mā Waru. Farewell to Sir Robert Gillies of the 28th (Māori) Battalion. The Government will provide $20.3 million in funding to improve two sites that have a special place in the hearts ...3 days ago
- Unions shouldn’t get in the way of student learning
The Government is urging the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put the education of their students first. “Between 9am and 3pm, parents expect their children to be at school to learn. Our Government is relentlessly focused on ensuring the value of achievement and attendance are at the centre of ...5 days ago
- Compensation scheme levies to be risk based
The levies that banks, building societies, credit unions and finance companies pay to the new Depositor Compensation Scheme (DCS) fund will reflect the size and riskiness of the institutions, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Under the scheme, deposits up to the value of $100,000 per depositor will be protected in ...5 days ago
- New Child Centre will improve mental health outcomes in Tauranga
Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey today opened Te Waka Aorangi Child Wellness Centre at Tauranga Hospital, marking a significant milestone in the Government’s commitment to enhancing the health of children and whānau in the Bay of Plenty region. “Te Waka Aorangi is leading the way by providing a ‘one-stop-shop’ ...5 days ago
- Dr Daniel Tulloch appointed to FENZ board
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden has today announced that Dr Daniel Tulloch has be appointed to Fire and Emergency New Zealand board. “I am pleased to announce that Dr Daniel Tulloch has been appointed for a three-year term of office” says Ms van Velden. “Dr Tulloch is a ...5 days ago
- Social Investment Board appointed
Former Treasury Secretary Dr Graham Scott has been appointed as chair of the newly established Social Investment Board, alongside a group of highly skilled individuals, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. The board will advise on the implementation of the social investment approach across the public sector and the work ...5 days ago
- Poroporoaki: Sir Robert ‘Bom’ Gillies
E te Ikanui a Whiro kua mau nei i te kupenga a Aitua. Kua turakina e te hoariri e kore nei e tāea te karo, mōrehu mutunga o te hokowhitu a Tū ki te Riri Tuarua o te Ao, unuhia tō kōuma, whakairihia tō patu ki tara-ā-whare, whītikihia te tatua ...5 days ago
- New Zealand and Irish Governments partner to support farming through research
New Zealand and Ireland are investing $9.6 million in targeted research to deliver practical solutions that reduce emissions for New Zealand’s primary producers, announced Agriculture Minister Todd McClay today. The joint effort, led by New Zealand’s Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and Ireland's Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, ...5 days ago
- Rail Network Rebuild to be delivered ahead of City Rail Link opening
The Government has confirmed a programme of upgrades to Auckland’s rail network that will complete the Rail Network Rebuild ahead of the City Rail Link (CRL) opening, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Acting Auckland Mayor Desley Simpson say. “The last National Government started the City Rail Link to transform public transport ...5 days ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Latin America
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will visit Chile, Mexico and Peru next week. “Chile and Mexico are two of New Zealand’s closest partners in Latin America and we are pleased to be visiting them next week,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will have bilateral programmes in Santiago and Mexico City involving ...6 days ago
- $340m NZ-China trade boost through 24 key partnerships
Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay, announced the signing of 24 Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) and supply agreements between New Zealand and Chinese companies as part of the Trade Mission to the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai and Guangdong province this week. “These new partnerships are set to ...6 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Sir Robert ‘Bom’ Gillies
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to Sir Robert ‘Bom’ Gillies KNZM, the last surviving member of the 28 (Māori) Battalion, who passed away today. “Sir Bom will be remembered for his service to New Zealand and defending the ideals we value most. “With trademark humility, he took it ...6 days ago
- Bringing Crown director fees closer to market rate
The Government is bringing director fees for 22 Crown-owned companies closer to market rate in order to retain and attract high quality directors, State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Ordinary directors’ fees for these companies have been largely static for more than 15 years and have fallen significantly below ...6 days ago
- Treaty Principles Bill introduced to Parliament
Associate Justice Minister David Seymour has welcomed the introduction of the Treaty Principles Bill to Parliament and says it will have its first reading next Thursday. “Parliament introduced the concept of the Treaty principles into law in 1975 but did not define them. As a result, the courts and the ...6 days ago
- Results reinforce importance of growth
The Government’s financial results for the first three months of the year are weaker than forecast and reinforce the need to drive growth and maintain careful spending, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The financial statements for the three months to 30 September 2024 show key fiscal indicators were weaker than ...6 days ago
- Suicide Prevention Action Plan Next Steps
With public consultation having closed on 1 November 2024, we are now heading into the next phase of developing our new Suicide Prevention Action Plan to cover the period 2025 to 2029, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “I would like to thank everyone who took the time to make ...6 days ago
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The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
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Matt, thank you for pulling all this together.
No problem, it's been a rush for me with a lot in my personal life, but I've been trying to make time to do this analysis for everyone. I've got them all up on twitter under #nzpoll, but not all of them made it to this site unfortunately.
Very glad I could get the last three in on time.
Note for those who haven't read the election day info: Pre-moderation will switch on during the regulated election day period. If you're seeing others' comments posted but yours aren't showing up, this is why. You don't need to submit them again. 🙂
Even better than that – in theory the ability to leave a comment on anything except the two designated moderated posts will disappear between 0000 and 1900. A subtle reminder for commenters 🙂
Thanks for this post. It is interesting to see just how knife-edge the Labour-Green option is based on the polls.
And I love that there is currently no probability based on the polls for National or Act to be in a government (unless Jacinda and the Labour caucus insanely ask them to be there).
I'm kinda loving that NZF haven't had a last-minute surge, or rather, that they've had it and it was… 1% extra, lol.
Thanks for the correction Lynn, even better!
I've always been ambiguous about NZF. They are a pain, and even more so since Shane Jones (all mouth and no oomph) wound up there.
But as you point out, having them long-term limits the level of Labour and National completely focusing on chasing the centre votes.
the odds at the bookies speak for themselves –National is toast
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/new-zealand-general-election-2020-next-sworn-in-government-4933767
New Zealand Labour Party @ 1.05
New Zealand National Party @ 10.00
Bet you not one National MP has placed a bet on their own party ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2020-matthew-hooton-national-set-for-third-defeat-in-2023
history will repeat itself over the next three years. National MPs will refuse to accept the public’s verdict, and decline to engage with new ideas or even contemporary New Zealand attitudes. They will resolve again to sit back smugly and wait for Ardern to fail
Why would you pay out anything for a labour government at this stage, lol, basically free money. 😉
If anyone had trouble reading the graphs on the original version of this post, I've updated it so that all the shrunken ones (the first six) can be clicked-through to the full scale file. I had forgotten the editor doesn't default to that, sorry!
Juuuusst in the nick of time !
https://twitter.com/swordfish7774/status/1317055908648636417
Remember … the preliminary Election Night result won’t be precisely the same as Final tally.