Reading the tealeaves

Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, April 21st, 2008 - 25 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

One News reports on their Colmar Brunton poll showing a 19 point lead to National and Key ahead in the preferred PM stakes:

Labour continues to trail National – There’s more bad news for Labour in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll. It’s trailing well behind National but the results suggest the governing party could also lose a key ally.

Espiner puts Labour’s poor showing in the poll down to attacking John Key and notes that Key’s flip-flops don’t appear to have hurt him – he’s ahead of Helen Clark in the preferred prime minister stakes and “a fourth term appears to be slipping from her grasp”.

3 News reports on their poll showing just a 10 point lead to National and Helen Clark back ahead in the preferred PM stakes:

Poll shows Helen Clark making a comeback against muddling John Key – The latest 3 News poll provides some welcome relief after months of pain for Prime Minister Helen Clark – her Labour party has made some significant ground on the National Party.

Garner interprets the results as showing Labour’s “attacks on Key for being a vacuous empty space appear to be working”. He puts Key’s drop below Clark in the preferred PM stakes down to “Key’s at times muddling leadership”. The lesson in this poll claims Garner, is that “National need to take some positions on policy… it needs to stand for something… Helen Clark ain’t dead yet”.

25 comments on “Reading the tealeaves”

  1. Tane 1

    Dammit a_y_b, we’ve double posted!

  2. higherstandard 2

    Thanks for the balanced post.

    Just shows that polling is volatile and apart from highlighting broad trends over time pretty much meaningless.

    It always surprises me that people get so excited by the polls perhaps if they came out a little less frequently they would be more useful.

  3. r0b 3

    Dammit a_y_b, we’ve double posted!

    More evidence that The Standard is a Vast Leftwing Conspiracy run out of the 9th floor of the Beehive!

  4. r0b 4

    It always surprises me that people get so excited by the polls perhaps if they came out a little less frequently they would be more useful.

    Amen. Also, it’s time for a serious upgrade to polling methodology. What is anyone supposed to make of polls that are so far apart?

  5. mike 5

    The real concern for Labour must be the lack of ground they were able make-up during a golden month for them.

    I not seeing much here about Mr Williams embarrassing lie fest…

  6. Steve Pierson 6

    I think one of the reasons for the difference between the two polls is that one of them is colmar brunton. Astrologers have more predictive capability than that lot.

  7. all_your_base 7

    mike – re your first comment, I think you’ve missed the point. re your second, I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest a “lie fest”. I guess after the fiasco of Audrey’s “confidential insider strategy documents” that turned out to be little more than scribbled delegates notes I’m a little more skeptical of these kinds of media-driven beat-ups than you are.

  8. mike 8

    AYB: My first point is that although the polls showa big diff in results and commentary they both still show a good lead for National after a less than ideal month.
    Secondly its interesting that you call being caught red handed telling porkies to the media “a media-driven beat-up”

    I hope williams keeps his job – he is much more valuable to National where he is.

  9. Santi 9

    Read not only the tea leaves, but also the coffee dregs: they do indicate the mood for a change in the nation (whatever that means) is unstoppable and should see Labour moving to the opposition benches after the election.

    What does it mean for Clark? That life after being PM can be quite cozy and comfortable, which she’s about to discover. A nice sinecure overseas in a useless UN outfit (UNESCO or something similar).

    What could be harder to swallow for the more radical left-wing of the socialist Labour Party will be seeing Goff elected as leader and the party coming back to the centre.

  10. gobsmacked 10

    “the mood for a change in the nation (whatever that means) is unstoppable”

    Yes, what does that mean? If there’s a mood for change, why don’t National suggest some?

  11. hmm 11

    The polling periods are also slightly different. TV3 ended two days before the TV1 one.

    That means that the TV1 may have just caught the Fisher & Paykel job losses on the 17th (which in the eyes of the public the Government could be blamed for – whether that is fair is another matter) and the culmulative effect of the ‘ministers do bad folk pop’ video being replayed and replayed by media organisations.

    That doesn’t explain the 9 point difference but if you add in an margin of error of around 3% it goes some way to doing so.

  12. Ah yes Santi – I see you’ve used your valuable insider knowledge and analytical skills to show… no hold on, you haven’t got either have you? What you have got is a strange KBR fantasy that you are trying to sell.

    Santi – you’re amateur-hour. Which reminds me – I thought you’d be busy reading “Absolute Power” while touching yourself inappropriately today…

  13. First Time Caller 13

    I’m surprised that the Standard can offer a relatively balanced interpretation. Sadly Steve lets the side down by snidely making digs at Colmar Brunton.

    It’s fair to say that John Key’s National Party has a whopping lead over Labour. The UMR polls–Labour’s own polling company, are consistently much closer to the Colmar Brunton than the TV3 poll.

    It would be a bold person indeed to take any single poll in isolation and claim a great trend, other than that Labour is generally failing to make much ground, and National is still commanding a strong lead.

    There will be a lot more volatility to come. People like Steve are setting themselves up for humiliation by crowing about individual results.

    In a way, it’s a good thing that the TV3 and TVNZ polls come out at the same time. It gives a good perspective that it’s the general trend, and not individual results, that count.

  14. The UMR pollsLabour’s own polling company, are consistently much closer to the Colmar Brunton than the TV3 poll.

    No they’re not.

    Why should I believe anything you write when you start your comment with an outright lie?

  15. Santi 15

    It’s always good fun to read the postings of the dim-witted Michael Porton, aka robinsond.

    He’s bending over backwards to fob off all attempts to discredit his beloved socialist Labour (he says he’s a Greenie, if you believe him).

    Way to go moron!

  16. First Time Caller 16

    Pardon me, Robinsod. That’s a very aggressive thing for you to say.

    The UMR poll, Labour’s own polling company, has consistently shown a 16 point lead to National over Labour for the last three months.

  17. Santi – I see that you are once again drawing on your political genius. You know nothing.

    FTC – If that’s the case then it is different to the UMR work I’ve seen – link please?

    Oh and Bro? Give the whole “Pardon me” faux-politeness thing a miss. I’ve read your comments on Kiwiblog and you really ain’t fooling anyone.

  18. Hoolian 18

    Ooooh, Robinsod’s getting titchy – quick blame Kiwiblog, or another far-out Right conspiracy.

    It would be a bold person indeed to take any single poll in isolation and claim a great trend, other than that Labour is generally failing to make much ground, and National is still commanding a strong lead.

    Yes, bold or desperate. I totally agree with this!

  19. I note, Hoolian, that your blog is named politics and prose. A more prosaic political mind than yours would be hard to find.

    But you shouldn’t worry about it bro, you got your blog’s name right – there’s some small hope for your wee aspirations yet…

  20. By the way FTC – I’m still waiting for that proof.

  21. DS 21

    In 2005, Colmar-Brunton was predicting National 44% Labour 37%. The actual result was Labour 41% National 39%. Or in other words, CB was 9% out in picking the party vote lead. Which, by curious coincidence, is now the difference between them and the TV3 poll (which incidentally got the 2005 result between the two major parties almost dead-on).

  22. rod 22

    All political polls should come with a warning.

    BEWARE ! Mindbenders At Work !

  23. randal 23

    YEAH WELL tv1 IS A DEN OF NATIONAL PARTY SOONERS WANNABEES AND HACKS. THEY THINK THEY ARE SO SMART WHEN THEY ARE JUST CHILDISH JUVENILES..HOW COULD ANYONE TAKE THE’ ‘HORSE’ OR CALLOW SERIOUSLY. THE 6 O’CLOCK NEWS IS RUN LIKE A CROSS BETWEEN A LAURELL AND HARDY EPISODE AND A LOOK AT ME BENEFIT CONCERT.

  24. deemac 24

    no-one expects different polls to produce identical data, but when they don’t even agree on the trends, something dodgy is going on – I would always suspect poor methodology before political interference but in the current overheated atmosphere anything is possible

  25. randal 25

    DEEMAC… you are right…national has been trying to run a ‘permanent campaign’ and all they have succeeded in doing is winding their troops and media supporters up to the point of a full fledged mania. all we are getting now is a torrent of lies, speculations and mis-truths garbled up and meaning nothing. the rest of the world is agog!

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    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
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    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago

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