Super Tuesday
Written By:
- Date published:
9:35 am, March 2nd, 2016 - 30 comments
Categories: us politics -
Tags: bernie sanders, donald trump, hillary clinton, strange days, super tuesday
Voting has begun – it’s on! By the end of the process one candidate in each party (i.e. Trump and probably Clinton but don’t give up on Sanders) will have huge momentum towards nomination. Strange days indeed.
From RNZ:
Super Tuesday voting under way
About a dozen states are casting votes for candidates from either the Republican or Democratic parties or both in a contest seen as make-or-break for the hopefuls.
Donald Trump leads the Republican field and Hillary Clinton is ahead in the Democratic race.
The first Super Tuesday polls opened in Virginia at 6am local time (midnight NZT). There have been earlier votes in four states. ….
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Sanders has no chance – he never really did.
it would have been the upset of the century thats true….interesting that 39% of democrat voters describe themselves as socialist though….dont think that phrasing would have been used even a decade ago.
It would have been rather amusing to have a Trump/Sanders contest though.
It would have been a contest between two old men, neither of whom was even a member of the party they ran for until 2015.
Pat at 10.46am
Where does that 39% figure come from? It sounds incredibly high for people in the US to use such a description.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/29/why-are-there-suddenly-millions-of-socialists-in-america
Thank you.
An amazing number.
He did better than Kucinich though — who ran with similar positions in 2004 and 08.
The Washington Post have an easy to read results page:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/super-tuesday/
There is something perversely fascinating watching the Republican Party civil war get underway.
I think Trump will take it, but Rubio and Cruz will ensure it is not the clean sweep he is looking for. Starting to wonder if these guys will be each others running mates should one or the other win the nomination.
As for the Democrats, sadly I think Hillary will win, but Bernie will scare her.
These fivethirtyeight super guides are handy, in getting a grip on which states are; caucused versus primary & proportional vs winner takes most. I particularly like the delegate targets needed to achieve overall majority (plus the demographic based vote-share benchmark for the democrats; as the delegate target only includes pledged delegates and not superdelegates):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-democratic-presidential-election-2016/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/
It’s more amusing with a Drumpfinator!
heh
Nate Silver
✔
@NateSilver538
Super Tuesday liveblog. You bring the whiskey. We’ll provide the soul-crushing analysis. http://53eig.ht/1WTQsSB
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/704789131054948352
Why the GOP establishment is worried.
Both of the remaining Democratic candidates for president easily top Republican front-runner Donald Trump in hypothetical general election match-ups, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.
But Hillary Clinton, who is well ahead in the Democratic race for the presidency, would likely face a stronger challenge should Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz capture the Republican nomination for president.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/
An interesting Vox article on the appeal of the Don
The rise of American authoritarianism.
A niche group of political scientists may have uncovered what’s driving Donald Trump’s ascent. What they found has implications that go well beyond 2016….
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
Very good, thanks for the link.
Whatever happens with Sanders today (or this election) let’s not forget that there are bigger fish to fry, and he is part of a larger and longer movement than the battle with Clinton. What he has done already is a game changer and it’s something that can be built on. The times they are a changing.
+100 Weka – we need to remember that we are in it for the long haul, and that the Sanders campaign has made a solid advance for the movement, whether or not he ends up beating Clinton.
and history is repeating
and humans are still dumb as
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/heres-why-this-educated-liberal-couple-are-considering-votin#.mreOJzxVe8
“Quote: That leaves The Donald, really a moderate in wolf’s garb, who would owe nothing to either party and might strike deals, for instance on tax reform.
Yes, we could be like the good citizens who voted for a “tameable” Hitler in 1933 to get things back on track. But the alternatives look worse.” Quote
there seems to be a lot of Chamberlains around.
When I talk about politics with my kids, I tell them we are living in the 1950’s and that hopefully the 60’s are just around the corner.
If you are talking about American politics you are really scaring me.
In the US in the 50s there was a President who actually knew what war was like and was determined to avoid getting into one. When Britain and France invaded Egypt for example he slapped them down very, very hard and forced their withdrawal.
Then in the 60s there was Kennedy, who tried to invade Cuba while not letting the invaders win. After that he got into the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and into Vietnam. Meanwhile he and his brother tried to arrange the assassination of Castro.
After him there was Johnson who really wound things up in Vietnam. Got up to half a million men in the end. They then had Nixon. Need I say more?
If we are going from a peaceful 50s to a mad 60s, God help us.
Do you actually remember anything about the 50s and 60s?
Scary days ahead be it Cruz or Trump.
It is easy to poke fun at many of Trump’s foreign-policy notions—the promises to “take” Iraq’s oil, to extract a kind of imperial “tribute” from U.S. military allies like South Korea, his eagerness to emulate the Great Wall of China along the border with Mexico, and his embrace of old-style strongmen like Vladimir Putin. But many of these views would have found favor in pre-World War II—and even, in some cases, 19th century—America.
[…]
Trump’s populism, divisiveness and friendliness toward dictators is also reminiscent of Charles Lindbergh, once an American hero, who led the isolationist America First movement. In some areas, Trump’s views go back even further, to 19th-century high-tariff protectionism and every-country-for-itself mercantilism.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546
I reckon it’s more like the end of the 20’s/beginning of the 30’s… politically & economically.
Or, you know, you could tell them it’s 2016 and they have to make choices based on the reality of today?
Sanders is in the same league as the late Norman Thomas and Eugene Debs both would have served the people of USA well ,but Socialism scares the gullible American public .
No, it seems that the American public is finding socialism more acceptable than it has in decades.
However the Democratic Super Delegates and Clinton’s corporate paymasters seem properly scared of it.
And as a result the Democratic Party is nakedly displaying just how undemocratic it actually is.
Clinton and Cruz take Texas.
http://apps.bostonglobe.com/election-results/2016/primary/democratic/texas/?p1=BG_election_SwitchToDem
Media Matters
✔
@mmfa
Ted Cruz’s watch party is being hosted by a right-wing radio host who refers to black people as “jungle animals”: http://mm4a.org/1XYumzM
https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/704850557857619968
edit: this too
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Didn’t go too well for Sanders.
Manik Sethisuwan @Sethisuwan
Sanders lost everyone, ALL demographics except kids, independants and republicans. Hillary won all. #ImWithHer
5:27 PM – 2 Mar 2016
https://twitter.com/Sethisuwan/status/704885877038657536
Carrie Dann Verified account
@CarrieNBCNews
Wowza re: Clinton margins with black voters tonight
Alabama : 92-6
Arkansas: 90-10
GA: 83-16
OK: 75-22
TX : 80-18
TN: 85-12
VA: 84-16>
https://twitter.com/CarrieNBCNews/status/704864053601169408
The Donald though….
Ben Jacobs Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Despite Trump calling the Pope disgraceful, he got 52% of the Catholic vote in Massachusetts
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/704837408215314432
I doubt Cruz will get over 50% in Texas.
Which means that a fair chunk of the very many Texas delegates will go to second placed Trump.
Super Tuesday: Turning point of road to White house LIVE UPDATES
https://www.rt.com/usa/334082-super-tuesday-consecutive-voting/
There’s still hope for Sanders
https://youtu.be/PdWd0wV44mk
Sanders isn’t quite as bad off as the Washington posts suggests (thanks TRP for that link btw, the constant resizing and animations on the Guardian made their front page almost unusable during the reporting). The current delegate count is; Clinton 1034, Sanders 408 – but that includes superdelegates. Pledged delegate totals are; C 596, S 399, this piece has a good summary:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Really, Sanders only chance now is that some spectacular lapse by (or character assassintion on) Clinton destroys her credibility before too many more votes are cast.