Daily review 17/07/2023

33 comments on “Daily review 17/07/2023 ”

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1. Bearded Git 1

   17 July 2023 at 6:10 pm

   Just listening on RNZ Checkpoint to one of the Australian witnesses at the Whakaari enquiry. He said (and this is from memory):

   "They didn't tell us it was going to be dangerous. They told us we were going for a walk on one of the most active volcanoes in NZ".

   D'oh. I would say that quote alone is a good and valid defence for the tour operators.
   • Incognito 1.1

     17 July 2023 at 9:08 pm

     Please put up links when you have a chance, thanks.
   • Bearded Git 1.2

     18 July 2023 at 6:43 am

     I did reference it to Checkpoint incog which any Standard reader was able to access. (It takes a while for the audio links to become available)

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018898720

     What the Australian tourist actually said was:

     "We were told it was a sunny walk along one of New Zealand's most active volcanoes"

     As I said above, that information clearly alerts him to potential dangers.
     • Incognito 1.2.1

       18 July 2023 at 8:18 am

       Yes, you did reference to it; thank you for putting up the link.

       NB it was merely a Q for extra info, not bolded in square brackets …
2. Bearded Git 2

   17 July 2023 at 6:13 pm

   Still listening to Checkpoint and the TV1 poll is:

   Lab 33 Gr 10 TMP 3 is 46% (59 seats)

   Nats 35 ACT 12 is 47% (61 seats)

   All to play for.

   (I’m not sure if those seat numbers are valid because there may well be a couple of seats overhang with TMP so the numbers could be 61-61 for instance.)
   • alwyn 2.1

     17 July 2023 at 6:32 pm

     Hipkins will be happy I suppose. He is still, just, ahead of Luxon in the preferred PM vote. Hipkins was down 2 to 24% while Luxon was up 1 to 20%. Can Chippie hang on?

     I can only think of one election in the MMP where this far out from the election the sitting PM didn't have a significant lead.
   • Belladonna 2.2

     17 July 2023 at 6:39 pm

     Once again, a poll which is effectively too close to call.
     • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

       17 July 2023 at 7:14 pm

       Yeah but seems to me a good result for Labour, only dropping 2% with National doing the same, plus Hipkins still ahead of Luxon as ppm more than the margin of error. Sufficiently different to the other recent polls to confirm the suspicion of many that they're polling a different public – one more inertial than the publics of the other polling organisations. You can tell that since TMP ranges 7%-3%, more than the margin of error.

       Also worth mentioning that it’s good for the Greens. Reassuring for them that the Kerekere thing did no damage to their credibility. I half expected alphabet soupers to bail out and the Green left rebels likewise.
       • Belladonna 2.2.1.1

         17 July 2023 at 7:23 pm

         TBH – I can't see any poll described as a 'good result' for a party because they'd 'only' dropped 2%.

         I had wondered if it was a new polling company – but it appears that Kantar has just rebranded themselves as Verian.

         https://www.scribd.com/document/659466526/July-2023-1-NEWS-Verian-Poll-Report-No-Supplementary-Questions-Version-002#

         TBH – I don't have any confidence in any of the poll results for TPM – they are so variable that I have to wonder if any of the polling companies are sampling effectively.

         All of the other results appear well within the margin of error across the last month or so of polls.

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
   • weka 2.3

     17 July 2023 at 6:44 pm

     The Greens might pick up an extra seat on the specials.
     • alwyn 2.3.1

       17 July 2023 at 6:56 pm

       This is a poll Weka, not an election. A poll doesn't distinguish between people who might vote in their electorate and those who might cast a special vote. They would all be in here together.
       • Belladonna 2.3.1.1

         17 July 2023 at 7:03 pm

         However a NZ poll is most unlikely to include Kiwis who are resident overseas. They (historically, I believe), have disproportionately voted Green.

         The results in 2017 resulted in an increase to the GP of an additional seat (although not those in 2020)

         https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/new-zealand-2017-general-election-official-results/
         • weka 2.3.1.1.1

           17 July 2023 at 8:02 pm

           1999 as well.

           https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/green-partys-old-guard-moves-on/N6SQ5IPTVW4SKRNFSGKJHDJ65A/
         • weka 2.3.1.1.2

           17 July 2023 at 8:10 pm

           can you find the 2020 official results on elections.nz? I can't find them.
           • joe90 2.3.1.1.2.1

             17 July 2023 at 8:21 pm

             https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/historical-events/2020-general-election-and-referendums/
       • weka 2.3.1.2

         17 July 2023 at 7:58 pm

         what Belladonna said. The Greens campaign overseas, I doubt those people are being polled.
         • alwyn 2.3.1.2.1

           17 July 2023 at 9:43 pm

           I agree that people overseas aren't likely to be polled. However what I was trying to say, perhaps not very clearly, was that the extra seats the Greens might get were derived form the difference between the election day results and the final count that includes the special votes.

           The Green party tends to drop between the results from the polls and the count on election day. They then to rise with the specials but don't usually get all the way to the numbers the polls were saying. The number of seats they end up with is oft times more than there election night figure but not more than the numbers polls might have suggested.

           Here are the figures from the average of the last 10 polls before the election and the final result of the election. They are in the form "year (poll average, election number)." They are taken from the various Wikipedia articles on the polling numbers. If I link to all of them I think I will be stopped from posting for having too many links. They are all of the form given here with the year changed.

           https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

           2002 (9.1, 7.00) 2005 (6.1, 5.30) 2008 (8.1, 6.72) 2011 (12.3, 11.06) 2014 (12.6, 10.70) 2017 (6.5, 7.20) 2020 (7.4, 7.90)

           In the first 5 elections the Green Party dropped between the late poll average and the election final result. 2017 got very confused by the fall out from the Turei affair. The Green Party had been polling much better before she stood down. In 2020 I don't think anyone can make much of the outcome. It was held when campaigning was almost impossible and I don't think it is ever going to be repeated.

           However what I was trying to say that the Grenns tend to pick up votes between the election night tally and the final result but not between the polls and the final result.
   • bwaghorn 2.4

     17 July 2023 at 7:17 pm

     Given the greens always pick up a seat from overseas voters, it's tighter than a tight thing,that's been tightened!!
     • Belladonna 2.4.1

       17 July 2023 at 7:23 pm

       Not in 2020…..
3. Anker 3

   17 July 2023 at 7:16 pm

   • 12% undecided
4. Kat 4

   17 July 2023 at 7:20 pm

   According to ….yes wait for it….JESSICA MUTCH McKAY on TVOne….. 12% undecided or refuse to be polled……12%….that's 12% plus 3% approx margin error…

   So…..15% to be won…..or lost….or split……

   What a game eh……
   • Belladonna 4.1

     17 July 2023 at 7:24 pm

     Or decide just not to vote….
     • Sanctuary 4.1.1

       18 July 2023 at 6:54 am

       We are heading for an historically low turnout IMHO. The cookers never vote, a quarter of Green voters have trouble getting out of bed in time and polarisation of the right means the National/ACT remain distrusted. No one really likes Luxon not matter how hard the MSM try to sell him. People are left with negative voting options. Either abstain, vote to keep the the far right out, or do your duty and vote for the least worst centrist option in Labour.
   • Dennis Frank 4.2

     17 July 2023 at 8:00 pm

     There's also the right-wing rebel rabble, who Winston's trying to capture:

     Dig into the detail, however, and three lots of 1% don’t make 3%, as a result of rounding. The component parties of Freedoms NZ total 0.8%, Democracy NZ is on 0.6% and the One Party on 0.5%. That’s 1.9% combined. There’s also the New Conservative Party, which registered 0.4%. Then there’s NZ First.

     according to a feature on Stuff over the weekend the party has been seeking to “ride a ‘freedom wave’ to parliament”. Winston Peters has lambasted the media for failing to cover his public meetings, saying, “it is clear the surge is coming whether they like it or not.” NZ First finished on 3.1% in this poll, a consistent showing from the last two in May (3.2%) and March (3.1%). https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/17-07-2023/fringe-right-parties-crop-up-in-new-poll

     Winston added the rebel rabble 2% to his 3% & went Bingo!
   • Incognito 4.3

     17 July 2023 at 9:22 pm

     Margin of error on 12% is 2.0% in this poll.
5. joe90 5

   17 July 2023 at 8:16 pm

   Roll on Ardern's memoirs.

   @HelenClarkNZ

   Shocked to see another senior #woman leader driven out of politics by hateful elements in society.

   @SigridKaag brought huge experience to her roles as #Netherlands Deputy PM & @D66 leader. #Women politicians globally are targeted disproporionately:

   english.elpais.com/international/

   https://twitter.com/HelenClarkNZ/status/1680252634572152836

   In Kaag’s case there has been racism as well as misogyny. Born in the city of Rijswijk, about six kilometers (four miles) from The Hague, where she now resides, her diplomatic work has taken her to countries such as Lebanon, Sudan, and Syria. She has worked for the United Nations in important positions related to refugees, migration, and development, and coordinated the joint UN and Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW-UN) mission to eliminate the Syrian chemical arsenal. For the most part, her service record has been ignored by her Dutch compatriots, a portion of whom see her as an outsider (she returned from abroad in 2017), whose olive-skinned family was also raised abroad. In an interview with this newspaper last June, Kaag said of her situation: “We live in a very polarized political climate, hijacked by radical right-wing extremist groups. It is a threat to democracy that we must take very seriously.”

   https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-07-14/dutch-deputy-prime-minister-quits-politics-due-to-death-threats.html
   • joe90 5.1

     17 July 2023 at 9:20 pm

     They're just misunderstood, that's all.

     //

     Among the key findings were the results on the willingness to resort to violence.

     "Disturbingly, this survey identified that 8 percent believe that threatening to hurt someone is an acceptable way to achieve change. The potential of propensity to violence as a justified response to public policy is an obvious area of concern," the note said.

     That number rose much higher among people who held 10 or more beliefs related to misinformation, such as that Covid-19 is fake or water fluoridation is unsafe.

     Among these "strong believers of misinformation", who made up 19 percent of respondents, 27 percent said "action that results in someone getting physically hurt" is an "acceptable way to achieve change in New Zealand". Similar proportions of these individuals said threatening to hurt someone online (24 percent) or in person (26 percent) was justified.

     […]

     Those more likely to believe 10 or more of the misinformation statements were male, under 40 and lived rurally.

     Half of them said they had stopped watching or reading mainstream media because of Covid-19 reporting, compared to 27 percent of all respondents. They were also more likely to say their mental health had been affected by exposure to false information, that they had chosen not to follow mainstream health advice and that they had stopped talking to friends and family or damaged their relationship with their partner.

     https://www.newsroom.co.nz/quarter-of-conspiracists-say-violence-acceptable-to-achieve-change
6. bwaghorn 6

   17 July 2023 at 8:46 pm

   https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123033/new-national-party-policy-would-let-young-people-use-kiwisaver-pay-rental

   They'll keep chipping away weakening kiwi saver if they can, typical stupid short sighted national
   • Bearded Git 6.1

     17 July 2023 at 10:01 pm

     I agree bWag….the Nats can't see further than their noses….they will dump contributions to the Cullen fund as soon as they get in, as they did under Key, and use this for tax breaks for the rich. And bugger the pensions deficit day of reckoning.

     It is false accounting.

     It is similar with state houses. Key/English actually sold some of these off instead of building more. This makes the books look good (versus Labour spending billions building 12,000) but has terrible long-term social implications.
7. arkie 7

   17 July 2023 at 8:56 pm

   This a long youtube video from Angela Collier, but it explains simply how AI tools work and also thoroughly covers the common misconceptions about them, it is enjoyable and accessible if you have the time:

   AI does not exist but it will ruin everything anyway

   The main points being:

   1. AI does not exist.
   2. There is no fidelity in AI
   3. AI trained on biased data sets will give biased results

   So it should not be used to make decisions.

   There is also bonus TNG/Muppet crossover discussion at the end that isn't as essential to understanding AI tools.
   • Bearded Git 7.1

     17 July 2023 at 10:02 pm

     arkie….I couldn't agree more. I think the whole AI thing has been massively hyped and is not really intelligence at all.
     • Incognito 7.1.1

       18 July 2023 at 8:08 am

       Just like smart phones are not really smart, but they can be handy.
8. pat 8

   17 July 2023 at 9:40 pm

   "And if you are thinking: but it can’t possibly be this dire, surely our political and economic leaders would be telling us if so? That is certainly an understandable expectation, and it is what lulls most of us into a sense of security that ‘things are under control’ – someone, somewhere has got the answers. But political leaders know that irrespective of the doubts they may reveal in private, declaring these concerns to the electorate will lose them votes, big time. Business and industry leaders know that whatever disquiet they may feel, for the sake of their shareholders and their own salaries and lifestyles, they must cling to the current model – extracting whatever profit they can while the sun shines. In a capitalist system, there is no money to made from facing up to limits or curbing excess."

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/page/collapse-is-not-a-dirty-word?amp=1

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