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Denial

Written By: - Date published: 10:27 am, May 19th, 2014 - 110 comments
Categories: uncategorized, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

Key was on morning report today to talk about the latest from the OECD, which is that NZ now has the most over-valued houses in the developed world.

Audio

Key’s responses are dire. In a bored voice, Key channels Muldoon and flatly denies there is a problem and claims the OECD have got it wrong.

This guy is completely out of touch.

110 comments on “Denial”

  1. Tom Gould 1

    Mindless spin and tortured factoids have worked for 6 years, and the media lap it up, so what makes today any different? There’s no housing crisis because their hero says there’s none. End of story. It took Muldoon 9 years to run out of scapegoats and big promises before unbridled power sent him crazy. How long will it take Key?

    • jpwood 1.1

      And the Herald does Mr Key’s job for him –

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11257861

      Headline “Housing crisis worse under Clarke’s government”

      A pretty important statement to put into a headline, so you would assume that somewhere in the article somebody would have perhaps researched this. No. It was simply Mr Key’s claim that the housing crisis was worse under Labour. There was no fact checking, just blithe acceptance.

      Even within the article the reason that the claim the housing crisis was worse seems tenuous, that because net migration was higher in a few years, but that was is not challenged.

      • geoff 1.1.1

        That’s pathetic….Key’s excuse of ‘but previous Labour government!!’ is going to get old really quickly if that’s all he’s got.

        Instead of looking for solutions to help NZ in the future he resorts to a feeble blame-game. What a joke.

      • Tracey 1.1.2

        did they spell her name with an “e”?

  2. fisiani 2

    Every time Labour claims there is a crisis then a few weeks later the figures emerge showing the claims are nonsense. There are more houses being built today than at at any other other time in NZ history. There are more consents granted for building at any other time in history. Yet Labour wants to severely limit immigrants including builders. The housing problem is that local Labour dominated councils have placed restrictions on building sites. Thankfully National have forced Len Brown to allow more houses to be built. Its called supply and demand. More and more people want to live in prosperous New Zealand and National wants them to have affordable houses. Builders want to build. Come on Councils get moving.

    • geoff 2.1

      Absolutely, fisiani.

      Nothing to see here, move along…

    • fender 2.2

      ” There are more houses being built today than at any other time in NZ history. There are more consents granted for building at any other time in history”.

      That’s weird, it’s as if thousands of homes got wrecked somewhere and need replacing…

      • Roy 2.2.1

        There you go, putting things in context again! Don’t you know fisiani hates that?!

      • You_Fool 2.2.2

        But if that was the case then the government would be stepping in to help out by making sure that the fixes that were needed were being done and sorting out any disputes over values of repairs and such like.

        • fender 2.2.2.1

          Fortunately not everyone is stranded in the desert of inaction, but the speed (or lack of) is very concerning.

    • You_Fool 2.3

      Ahh national, replacing housing affordability with transport costs!

    • Steve Withers 2.4

      It’s a bit more complicated than that. The houses they are building in Auckland are typically way out on the fringes. HUGE commutes to get to work. The Ellerslie-Panmure and Greenlane East motorway monsters will choke the cars for an hour / day minimum.

      It’s impossible to cross the city cheaply or quickly to get to work – by car or by public transport (thanks to National dragging their heels on the Central Rail Link).

      I won’t be buying a house in Pokeno or Kumeu to get to work in Te Atatu. (for example). The homes being built will have serious problem retaining any value…..and here’s the thing: They certainly won’t be cheap to buy. That defeats the whole purpose of the exercise. Where is the sense in building more homes people either don’t want to buy at all or they can’t afford the entry price?

      We’ll find out in a few years when there are “ghost” suburbs ringing Auckland…..homes no one wants, empty at any price…..and the people who bought them first end up taking a bath.

      Who wins? The land-banking Nat donors pushing for this stupid policy so they make their quick buck .

      • Colonial Viper 2.4.1

        Trying to fit 1/3 of the country’s population in 0.3% of the space is the major problem.

        • Steve Withers 2.4.1.1

          Agreed. It’s a problem all large cities face. Clearly, there is both a need and a demand for intensification. More people in a given area. Aging Kiwis who grew up on quarter acre sections or on farms might not like that much, the hundreds of thousands who recently immigrated from countries where such lifestyles are the norm have few problems with it. But they have little in the way of a political voice.

          The other problem NZ faces is its horrendous regulatory environment around apartments. The whole concept of a body corporate being imposed by the developer – for profit – is a terrible model. It hands all the risk to the “owners” who have no control over any of it as they had no part in the building of the place. The classic Kiwi “build and walk-away” approach……exemplified by the “leaky home” fiasco.

          So who wants to intensify when body corporate fees are 5 times the rates on the same property…and you haven’t paid your mortgage yet? Crazy stuff. All fixable…..but keep the inner-suburb BMW drivers the hell away from the decision making.

        • Psycho Milt 2.4.1.2

          Trying to fit 1/3 of the country’s population in 0.3% of the space is the major problem.

          It’s only a problem because we make it one. I lived in Hamburg during the 90s, a city of upwards of a million people occupying a far smaller land area than Auckland. How it worked, of course, was that no-one expected to live in a house with a garden within 5km of the city centre unless they were fabulously wealthy. We lived in 4- or 5-story walk-up apartment buildings and used public transport to get around. No ordinary person in Hamburg had lived in a house with a garden inside the city walls for centuries, which is why Auckland has a big problem – it hasn’t been around for centuries. The only way out of this is going to be demolishing inner-city houses and building proper urban dwellings, ie apartment blocks – whether the private sector does it or the government does it, somebody is going to have to do it and Aucklanders who demand the lifestyle of a house and section near the centre of a large city need to raise the cash to fund it.

      • lprent 2.4.2

        Yeah, you’d have to be completely desperate to want to live out there and to work anywhere but very close. No public transport and the arterial roads are full because we don’t have decent public transport.

        I live in Grey Lynn/Newton because I’m right next to the transport nexuses so I can choose where I work based on what I want to work on rather than transport lengths. I’ve been job hunting for the last few weeks and noticing the new do nots. As each job comes up, the first thing I look at it how easy it is to get there via public transport vs car from my relatively good location.

        I’ve pretty well eliminated going down the southern way unless the job is right next to a train station. The jams are pretty continuous at ellerslie/greenlane and so far have happened on at least one leg of every trip to interviews during the working day. Since that particular greenlane bend issue has been there since I worked at manakau back in the early 90’s I suspect it is unresolveable. The buses look like they suffer the same issues because there is no dedicated lane(s) on the motorway. They don’t appear to have set up decent feeders from the train line.

        North eastern is ok these days because they put the northern busway in. Dropped the traffic volumes. I used the bus for a job at Takapuna 4 years ago and rather enjoyed my device reading to and from work. Certainly a lot easier than when I was driving to Albany each day pre-busway.

        Haven’t seen anything out west. But that looks pretty clogged except on the train.

        The onehunga area is looking more viable these days due to the train at Newmarket.

        Train is definitely the best – except without the central loop, it looks like it is heading to capacity in the next year or two

        My optimal is to work around the CBD area in walking or inner Link distance …

        • karol 2.4.2.1

          Yep. And it’s a major bottle-neck getting to or from New Lynn in peak periods, whatever direction you go. Train is best to the CBD at peak times. Bus is fine in off-peak times. But I can’t see it getting better – especially with the intensification of residential areas in New Lynn.

          I’m looking to move in the medium to longer term.

          When Key was talking about lots of houses under $400,000 in Auckland – I imagine they are on the outskirts of Auckland where transport poverty rules.

          • lprent 2.4.2.1.1

            When Key was talking about lots of houses under $400,000 in Auckland – I imagine they are on the outskirts of Auckland where transport poverty rules.

            I’m working in Freemans Bay, living in Newton. Currently I fill the tank in my car once between 6-8 weeks. It costs ~$100-110. I put $50 on my Hop card every 3 months.

            If I was living in Kumeu, it is ~25km each way by car and at least 25 minutes each way by car (but at the rush double hours more like 45 minutes). I’d have to fill the car at least once every week (and have a much higher maintenance cost). ~$100-150pw would be my guess. By bus it’d cost $9-$10 each way ~= $100pw and take a bit over an hour each way if the traffic was ok and probably longer at rush hour. And that is to Kumeu centre. There are no buses to where the housing estates are.

            Either way it’d suck. There are also two of us and we have frequently have radically different schedules and we are on different side of the CBD (it takes 20 minutes to go from one side of the CBD to the other in the rush hours by car). So I’d double it.

            Extra cost per week ~$200-$300pw and a unpaid time cost of maybe 10 hours each. That is why I live in Newton rather than out in bubolic Kumeu. I’d only get to see the place on the weekends and it’d cost a bomb. The house prices there simply aren’t low enough to tempt me to pay the extra weekly costs.

            It is no wonder that people are choosing to live close to where they work and why many Aucklanders are desperate for better public transport. I think that these estates in the sticks are just going to be dumping grounds.

            • karol 2.4.2.1.1.1

              Yep. Dumping grounds in the sticks. And Key touts the housing development in his electorate at Hobsonville, while living in Parnell.

              I have the advantage of working part time. My preference would be to live closer to the CBD. But I don’t hold much hope of a rental that is reasonable. On the other hand, I could be OK living further out given my workplaces. But, that means I’d also probably visit the CBD even less.

              I’m torn.

        • Tracey 2.4.2.2

          and in mt eden, not in ags zone, a 3/4 bedrm townhouse, leaking since 1995, inside is appalling too, sold for 744k. before any repair. so theres one of fuzzies building consents, but its not an affordable house.

          house prices highest since 2008.

    • hoom 2.5

      There is no housing afordability crisis in New Zealand
      we can all keep perfectly calm…

    • Rex 2.6

      Labour isn’t actually the OECD. Face the possibility that “people you don’t like” may not be a single organisation.

  3. ianmac 3

    That interview was astounding. Mr Key’s denial is typical of him but fancy the OECD report being so wrong when Mr Key, the brilliant Economist and successful business man clearly is so right. What a good man to buy a car from or maybe the Auckland Harbour Bridge is in the Key portfolio. My Hero is John Key. Give that man a knighthood. Swoon!

    • geoff 3.1

      Yeah it was astonishing, yet unsurprising as well.

      I was trying to think of a phrase that get used when a politician has like a watershed moment (but not watershed) where they have an issue that skewers them. Not a ‘Nixon moment’ or ‘jumping the shark’ but something along those lines. Anyone know which phrase I mean??

      It feels like housing could be that issue for Key because the problem cant be solved without strong state intervention and he seems totally against that.

      • Clemgeopin 3.1.1

        [I was trying to think of a phrase that get used when a politician has like a watershed moment (but not watershed) where they have an issue that skewers them.]

        Guzzumped
        Bummed out
        Caught out
        Epiphany
        Elephant in the room
        Damascus moment
        Kingkey has no clothes?
        Sh*t hitting fan

        • geoff 3.1.1.1

          Thanks Clem but none of those are sticking out as the one I think I’m thinking of. I could be just going bonkers and there is no such phrase.
          Maybe I’ll just make one up for the occasion, a ‘Muldoon moment’. hmm kinda sounds like a biscuit…’I’ll just nip down to the dairy and buy a pack of Muldoon moments’

          • Anne 3.1.1.1.1

            Trumped?

          • fender 3.1.1.1.2

            How about: Key has painted himself into a corner where the spotlight has exposed him to be “found wanting”.

            Personally I just think Key is bereft of ideas, and is too “comfortable” to be motivated to do anything; he’s got several homes so what’s the problem…

            • You_Fool 3.1.1.1.2.1

              This is probably it, Key and his ministers don’t see the housing problem because they have houses and have no issues buying new ones if they want

          • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1.3

            Crossing the rubicon?

            I think I know what you’re alluding to but can’t put my finger on it either.

            • geoff 3.1.1.1.3.1

              This has the right smell to it, but it doesn’t have the meaning I was going for. I relly do think I’m conflating some phrases in my head and the phrase I’m thinking of probably doesn’t exist.

          • Clemgeopin 3.1.1.1.4

            Burst balloon
            Cat among the pigeons

            Anyway, Geoff, here are some political phrases, quotes and moments from IRELAND for your amusement:

            An Irish solution to an Irish problem – Charles Haughey
            A Protestant Parliament for a Protestant People – James Craig
            "The sort of smug know-all commentator... I suppose if anything annoys me, that annoys me... I could instance a load of fuckers whose throat I'd cut, and push over the nearest cliff, but there's no percentage in that." – Former Taoiseach Charles Haughey speaking to Hot Press writer John Waters in 1984.[97]
            "I am absolutely pissed off..." – Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, 1998
            "No problem" – Brian Lenihan
            "On mature recollection..." – Brian Lenihan during the 1990 Irish presidential election
            "Let them, fuck it, we'll say no more." – Minister for Defence Michael Smith, while deputising for the Tánaiste one Thursday morning.[97]
            "I am sick of answering questions about the fucking peace process." – Taoiseach John Bruton famously upsetting a local radio reporter in Cork for which he later apologised.[97]
            "Crap, total crap." – Taoiseach Albert Reynolds to dismiss claims that he never spoke to his coalition partner from the PDs, Des O'Malley. Described as a slip of the tongue by press secretary, Sean Duignan, when initially used in an interview with the Sunday Tribune, but later revived for RTÉ and elsewhere.[97]
            "With all due sincerity and in the most unparliamentary language, fuck you Deputy Stagg, fuck you." – Green Party TD Paul Gogarty's outburst directed at Labour Party TD Emmet Stagg during an Irish Budget debate.
            "We have turned a corner." – Fianna Fáil TD and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, Jnr's comment on the Irish economy during the Irish Budget debate.
            I suppose I'm going a bit too far when I say this but I'd like to ask Mr. Quinlivan is the brothel still closed?[98] - Minister of Defense Willie O'Dea February 2009 accusation against a local election candidate Maurice Quinlivan. In less than a year, O'Dea would be forced to resign as Minister after submitting an affidavit denying he made the remarks.
            "There was a confluence of events" – Taoiseach Brian Cowen defending his poor performance during a radio interview on the morning of a Fianna Fáil pre-parliamentary event on 14 September 2010.
            "There was a hoarseness in my voice" – Taoiseach Brian Cowen defending his performance on the same occasion.
            "Fiction" – Fianna Fáil TD Dermot Ahern denying rumours of an European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout of Ireland in late 2010. The bailout occurred shortly after Ahern made his denial.

          • McFlock 3.1.1.1.5

            Jumping the shark?

            • geoff 3.1.1.1.5.1

              That is the pretty much what I’m meaning but I thought there must have been an older idiom that captured that.
              Key definitely has jumped the shark on housing now though.

              • Brendon Harre

                I have used the ‘Emperor has no clothes’ analogy in the comment stream here

                http://www.interest.co.nz/news/68945/variety-politicians-and-industry-leaders-have-quickly-responded-first-rise-interest-rates

                “The Emperor has no clothes….. When we stop pretending to see the finery and see the actual facts on the ground….”

                Is that close to what you mean Geoff?

                • geoff

                  That’s close to the meaning of what I was looking for but I was sure there was a line with the word ‘moment’ in it, as in ‘Key’s insert word here moment’.

                  Oh well.

                  • Clemgeopin

                    ‘FOOT IN THE MOUTH moment’

                    ‘Usual LYING BS moment’

                    ‘TROTY moment’

                  • Brendon Harre

                    The ‘Emperor has no clothes moment’ or the ‘John Key has no clothes moment’ kind of captures the idea from the voters perspective.

                    Housing being the issue that has exposed the ‘reality’ facts on the ground not matching John’s glib words, toothy smile and no problem here… That John is not the ‘charismatic’ leader that many claim he is.

                    What it doesn’t capture is how housing imposes an impossible predicament on John. It is his ‘perfect storm moment’ with waves coming from the economics and politics of the situation that cannot be weathered.

      • ffloyd 3.1.2

        Defining moment.??
        Point of no return???

      • sabine 3.1.3

        i think you were looking for this phrased used in 1950’s during the lovely and very entertaining McCarthy area…:)

        “Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?”

        and no he has not.

        It is also not important that he is “out of touch”, he has a house and he can afford it. So you see there is no house crisis, no affordable home crisis, no 3 hours commute crisis, no income crisis, no child poverty crisis, no crisis at all, cause he got his, hers and yours too.

      • Tracey 3.1.4

        met his waterloo?

  4. Awww 4

    Waiting for Campbell Live to send an undercover reporter + kids on the hunt for a rental property as a follow up to their story on house purchasing which demonstrated that it is only realistic for a very limited number of buyers, and often requires parental help.

  5. fender 5

    For a minute there I thought Espiner was going to hold firm and insist Key face reality, but in the end he just let the weasel continue to spin his BS.

    It is great though that Key managed to achieve a downturn in Australia resulting in fewer kiwis going there to live.

    “This guy is completely out of touch”

    Of course he is, his hands are too busy down his y-fronts..

    • Roy 5.1

      He can grope all he wants, he won’t find any balls.

    • Paul 5.2

      Yup, Espiner was useless.
      Never questioned the 53 000 who went to Australia. Just let Key waffle on.
      No wonder Key’s happy to go back on RNZ again.

  6. tricledrown 6

    The only ones winning in the housing market are the speculators and the big banks who Key sucks up to .
    Spin and paper shuffling is the only policy National have come up with.
    A few small bandaids to cover a gaping wound and add plenty of spin.
    Even Key said a few weeks ago said it would be 20 years to fix.

    • geoff 6.1

      You’ll hear near the end of the interview, Key sends some soothing words to the house owning people whose vote he wants, he says something along the lines of “don’t worry, your house prices wont deflate”

      My guess is that he knows the younger, poorer half of the country that is being disproportionately effected by the housing crisis is much less likely to vote in the election, so he can shit on them with his policies and it won’t cost him politically as much as it should.

      He is playing a repugnant political game.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1

        Key is artificially keeping house prices high so that people don’t suddenly find themselves paying a debt greater than their houses are worth. Doing anything about large housing bubbles tends to end governments as people have got used to the massive gravy train that massively rising house prices provide.

        Of course, keeping them high doesn’t benefit NZ at all.

      • DH 6.1.2

        “My guess is that he knows the younger, poorer half of the country that is being disproportionately effected by the housing crisis is much less likely to vote in the election”

        Unfortunately it’s not the poorer half Geoff, if it was we’d likely have a genuine left Govt.

        Latest Census figures say 64.8% of NZ households own their own home and the remaining 35.2% rent or live rent free.

        Even on a population basis 49.8 percent of people aged 15 years and over own or partly own the home they live in. The 50.2% who don’t own include children living with the parents, elderly in rest homes etc etc so the percentage of genuine renters who want to rent long term or buy their own home is probably only around 35-40% there too.

        Can reasonably assume that around 60% of voters own property and 40% don’t .

        From the National Party perspective there is no housing crisis. For the average Nat voter in the main cities it’s a housing bonanza, they’re making a fortune out of it. Property owning politicians are doing very nicely for themselves too.

        To be fair to Labour they’re caught between a rock and a hard place. If they put themselves in a position where National can accuse them of lowering property values they’ll lose the election, it’s a vote killer for as as long as property owning voters outnumber renter voters. But to win the low income vote they need to do something concrete about the cost of housing, how to do that without losing the property owning vote is the $64k question no-one really has the right answers to.

        • Draco T Bastard 6.1.2.1

          One way or another the bubble will pop. We have the choice of doing it the hard way or the other hard way.

        • geoff 6.1.2.2

          Well you’re probably right but even 40% of the population is a huge number of people to be playing a political game with. It’s sounds like something Mitt Romney would do.

          And of course that ignores how many of the 60% who do own homes have significant mortgages. Mortgages that will become more difficult to service as interest rates increase and who fail to see increases in their wages.

  7. aj 7

    If I had a nett worth of $50m I wouldn’t think housing prices were a problem either.

  8. John Key is worried about an entirely different set of issues. First of all, like China albeit on a somewhat smaller scale, the housing bubble is the only thing that keeps this economy ticking over. Hence the need for foreign buyers who inflate and bubble the house prices with their fake fiat currency like they do in New York, London, Sidney and other places kicking the can of economic and financial collapse down the street just long enough to complete the looting before the next election. Just in time to blame labor for the demise of this country.

    The Petro dollar is on the way out with the China Russia trade agreement in the making and if Russia decides to accept payment in anything but the dollar as the biggest gas and oil exporter that will mean the collapse of the US. The collapse of the US will mean the end of the banking system which by the way holds most of John Key’s paper wealth. He is a man who with his banker palls keeps an awful lot of plates twirling on very fragile sticks. One of them breaks all of them go.

    I tried to find out what a house costs in one of the provinces of Holland not so long ago. A house which in Auckland would cost anywhere between $800.000 to $1.5 million. A solid stone dwelling 4 bedrooms and a garden in a quiet burb close to all the amenities you could wish for costs around about $300.000-$ 400.000. This is in a country with 17 million inhabitants last time I looked on a piece of land the size of Northland. Now that is a population to put pressure on the resources!

    Kiwi’s are gullible suckers who think we need face recognition in all the streets of our fair cities for fear of a “terrorist”. They don’t get that assholes like John Key, his puppet masters and his psycho minions want that shit in place for when the sheeple get how much they’ve been screwed up the arse by their dear leaders

  9. karol 9

    Geoff, your audio file in the post doesn’t play. Hmmm. If I recall correctly the best way to make it work is to type something – anything, then highlight it and add the mp3 link as a link.

    • geoff 9.1

      Ah, cheers karol, I’ll have a go at that.

    • geoff 9.2

      Thanks karol, the audio seems to be working now.

      • karol 9.2.1

        Great. Thanks, geoff. I’ve had that problem beofre with posts.

        Key uses his “I don’t agree with that” and “let’s take a step back” ploys, plus says Labour did worse…

        But Key’s government has let the problem continue to get out of hand. Interesting that, the crucial last section of the video, as you indicate in your post: Key debunks the OECD report by saying they used a particular measure. In contrast, Key uses his own selective measure, based on him having lived in London, Singapore, visited Melbourne, etc, and he (the millionaire) didn’t notice that houses were more affordable there than in Auckland.

  10. Mr Oh Well 10

    What if you take into consideration mortgage rates as well…. (do you get tag teamed by the financial boys and girls i.e. over inflated house prices and higher mortgages……)

    No idea if this inference from these sites is correct (i.e. averaged/don’t know if comparing apples with apples), Anyone?

    New Zealand
    http://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
    6-7%

    UK
    http://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/first-time-buyer-mortgages.htm
    3.6% -%5 APR

    USA
    Circa 4.1% APR-5%
    http://www.bankrate.com/mortgage.aspx

    Australia
    http://www.ratecity.com.au/home-loans/best-mortgage
    circa 4%-5%

  11. Mr Oh Well 11

    Travellerev……..

    “tried to find out what a house costs in one of the provinces of Holland not so long ago. A house which in Auckland would cost anywhere between $800.000 to $1.5 million. A solid stone dwelling 4 bedrooms and a garden in a quiet burb close to all the amenities you could wish for costs around about $300.000-$ 400.000. This is in a country with 17 million inhabitants last time I looked on a piece of land the size of Northland. Now that is a population to put pressure on the resources!”

    I think your on the money.

    Funny we have state forests, defunct lumber mills (and workers) + unemployed + the possibility of utilizing the latest prefabricated building technologies…. Now what could you do with that? The solution’s are limitless, the legislation and market protection unfortunately are too.

    You have to keep people in debt to control them

    I so love being part of Keys Nuuuuu Zullaand

    Also, look at this: Is the World Ready for a Radical, Low-Cost Housing Boom?
    http://bigthink.com/endless-innovation/is-the-world-ready-for-a-radical-low-cost-housing-boom

    The next housing boom will be far more radical than the last housing boom. Instead of moving middle-class families into McMansions they can’t possibly afford, this next housing boom will be radical because it will take low-income families from developing markets and move them into affordable, modular housing at a price point close to $2,000 per home. (Yes, that’s the total cost of the house, not the monthly mortgage nut). Imagine every family in the world – even those making less than $2 per day – suddenly having potential access to sturdy, affordable housing. Oh, and did I mention that this housing will be powered by the sun? Eventually, these innovations from developing markets will find their way into developed markets, and that will lead to a radical re-think of what’s possible for the lowest strata of American society.

    • Tracey 11.1

      today an item said the average proice of a property in london is now 500,000 pounds… so about a million NZD…

      twice or 3 times Auckland’s population, a key internatoional city…

      Auckland’s average just hit 700,000 didn’t it?

      • Travellerev 11.1.1

        The thing is the Chinese are building entire empty cities to keep the bubble going, in London one 1500 m2 flat just sold for more than NZ$ 278,212,942.30 (That’s right that is more than a quarter billion dollars NZ) and in New York and Sidney the same is happening.

        This has nothing to do with an accidental housing bubble or a dramatic need for more houses. This is how the money printing and bailing out of banks done in the US, China and all the other countries even if they don’t tell you (including NZ) they’re doing it comes back to bite us the 99% in the ass.

        The rich including John Key are making a mint out of this while we are forced out of our houses via rates, forced into coffin houses because our money is worthless.

        How do they do it? Here is Max Keiser introducing the term interest apartheid

        This will only stop if we stop calling it a crisis (Hint for David Cunliffe here) and start calling it what it is: Criminal Fraud on a truly apocalyptic scale with the sole purpose of transferring our heard earned wealth to the parasitical class; The class John Key belongs to, the bankster class!

        Hence the necessity of opening up our borders to rich greedy and above all corrupt Chinese rich people to mention just one group but I could name rich Greedy Americans with lots of dosh made through monopolizing creativity with copyright too.

        It will only stop when we take back control of our currency and our government becomes once again for and by the people.

        Mind you there is no conspiracy here. They would not do that to us. Our government! No sir

  12. anker 12

    Not sure that people are buying your spin Mr Key.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/lightbox/national/politics/10059314?KeepThis=true&TB_iframe=true&height=500&width=680

    This from Stuff about housing affordability/crisis.

  13. Colonial Viper 13

    Interestingly, plenty of people in the top 20% i.e. earning $60K to $80K p.a. know for damn sure that there is a major housing affordability problem in NZ. If not for themselves, then they see their kids facing it acutely.

    So I hope Key keeps his flat out denials out there in the media, it’s very useful to the Opposition parties.

    • Macro 13.1

      Exactly – I have met a number of people over the past couple of weeks travelling about the country and almost always their first opening point of conversation is “house prices” and the affordability of such. With the figures Polity has provided over the past few days as concrete evidence the only way you can say – things are fine is if you are in complete denial of reality as Key is shown to be constantly.
      We are not well served by our msm at present but the reality, as opposed to the fiction of the beltway, is being felt by more and more people.

  14. infused 14

    There seems to only be a problem in Auckland and Christchurch.

    Where I live, there are a ton of houses for sale for 220k-300k. These are 3bdrm places in nice areas.

    People need to stop going to Auckland.

    • lprent 14.1

      The interesting jobs are in the bigger centres. Where you are living sounds like a retirement centre.

      • Phil 14.1.1

        The interesting jobs are in the bigger centres.

        That’s true, and is probably a major part of the problem.

        With my work I was recently travelling through some of the medium sized cities in the NI for meetings – Hamilton, Rotorua, Tauranga, Palmerston North, New Plymouth etc.

        As we were coming in to land at a lot of these places, it was painfully obvious that we have a metric fuck-ton of free land to build houses on; but none of it is in Auckland. Part of the solution to Auckland’s housing affordability issues needs to be expansion and development of industry and services to the rest of the provinces.

        • lprent 14.1.1.1

          There is a BIG reason these days why Auckland is a centre of jobs. The most interesting jobs are generally related directly or indirectly to the export of intellectual property of one form or another. There are few international airports further south of Auckland International Airport anywhere in the world. Only Christchurch really has a pile of long-haul flights right around the world.

          So the intellectual property firms cluster in those two cities where the airfreight from suppliers, airfreight to customers, and travel to markets is easy.

          The firms that surround those firms with services are here as well, because while in theory it is easy to have a graphic designer in Whanganui to do artwork for you, in practice it is a hell of a lot easier when you can go over it on a desktop in Auckland after they travel for minutes rather than hours. Extend that out by the massive numbers of services that non-commodity export firms need.

          Meanwhile the other export economy is around farming and forestry. Largely selling commodities with relatively few employees. Most of their interesting jobs in Auckland or ChCh to have access to the services of every other exporter.

          Somehow I really don’t think this is a pattern that is going to change a lot for quite some time.

        • Draco T Bastard 14.1.1.2

          Best thing you could do for pretty much all city centres would be to get rid of the wasteful large sections with a single over-sized house on it and build decent apartment buildings. Build up industrial zones around the edge with lots of parkland in between.

      • infused 14.1.2

        Hutt valley. Hardly a retirement centre.

        What’s more interesting is a lot of Wellington businesses are moving out here. The govt has already put a lot of govt agencies out to the wider Wellington region.

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.2.1

          A $250K house in the Hutt Valley? Sure, if you are keen on living a stones throw from the Rimutakas…

          • infused 14.1.2.1.1

            Look yourself.

          • alwyn 14.1.2.1.2

            There are plenty of 3 bedroom houses for under $250,000 in Wainuiomata.
            That would be 20-25 minutes from the Wellington CDB.
            I don’t quite understand the reference to “living a stones throw from the Rimutakas” though.
            The whole of the Hutt Valley fits that description of course and the Rimutaka Range runs all the way to Cook Strait at Baring Head. The range is NOT just the bit north of Upper Hutt as many people seem to assume. It includes the ranges visible from Wellington that are behind Eastbourne just across the harbour.

        • lprent 14.1.2.2

          One of those places I haven’t been around since the early 80s. I have no idea what it is like these days.

          What’s more interesting is a lot of Wellington businesses are moving out here.

          However when the businesses move into a zone, then you can expect to see shifts in housing prices.

    • Macro 14.2

      they would if they could – you have work for hundreds in your area?

      • karol 14.2.1

        The Auckland situation would be improved with a major upgrade of public transport, plus related revitalisation of some regional or provincial centres.

    • The Al1en 14.3

      Using Waikato as an example, the median price in Hamilton increased to $375,000, up on prices a year ago by $41,000, or 12.3 per cent, but Hamilton sales volumes for the month were down on a year ago by 21.9 per cent.

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/business/9816589/Waikato-house-sale-figures-slip-in-February

      So loads of houses at the right price is questionable, but even if you were correct, people still can’t afford to buy them.

      • Colonial Viper 14.3.1

        $375K is 9x the country’s median full time wage, for a couple with 2x full time minimum wage jobs it is a mere 6.5x – still incredibly unaffordable.

        • The Al1en 14.3.1.1

          I got my paltry $115k mortgage back when kiwibank first started 100% home loans for first time buyers. I can safely say, without that loan, there’s no way I could ever get in to a home today.

          Like the title says ‘Denial’.

  15. Will@Welly 15

    “There is no housing crisis.”
    More of the traitor’s lies.

  16. Richard@Down South 16

    Of course there is no crisis… if you own investment properties you are making out like a bandit (and not getting taxed on it either), so of course… nothing to see here, move on people

  17. Papa Tuanuku 17

    Three phrases for the left. J Key is:

    out of touch
    not one of us
    ‘too comfortable’

  18. tc 18

    Compare this to OZ where the liberals cynical budget, which broke many promises, has gains for high/middle income earners and business has been comprehensively and accurately slammed with Abbott now polling below Rudds levels when he got knifed.

    And they’re still pulling out the weeds from the detail and running fresh stories whereas here….

    The denial is plausible as we have an msm chock full of popinjays and associated govt cheerleaders who just give shonkey and his wrecking crew a soapbox for whatever BS they’re peddling today.

    Key wouldn’t have lasted much beyond tranzrail if we actually had an independant media striving for the truth, accountability and those higher standards the nact give lip service to on a regular basis.

    He does it because he knows he’ll never get called on it especially at TVNZ who has been an obedient servant, especially on the land their mates at SkyCity wanted.

  19. dave 19

    a land of milk and honey strawberry fields for ever he,s on planet key and the rest of us are not invited to the party mates only.

  20. Ecosse_Maidy 20

    I can only assume that for our Prime Minister there is no housing crisis because he’s got one if not more than one.
    I don’t suppose if you look at the figures out about building consents given etc that those people see a problem either..lots of consents.
    I am sure that a lot of people who invest in property aren’t complaining either what with collecting the rent
    The trouble lies in the affordability of said housing.Where the average bloke with a family and working his arse off to pay the rent etc cant afford to buy one.Where many young couples have not got a hope of ever buying one especially in Auckland.
    Housing effects all of us in New Zealand .National state “Problem What problem”?
    Come on Labour.!! Grab this by the horns and make this THE election issue.

  21. hoom 21

    Oh. My. God.
    I just actually listened to that.

    Really Key lives on some completely bizzaro loony world utterly out of touch with the reality that most of us live in.

    I am just gobsmacked with the absolute utter completely wrongness of everything he said.

    And I think Espiner did a decent job of challenging it replete with incredulous WTF tone.

    Auckland needs affordable housing near public transport & other facilities aka Kiwibuild.
    Building shitloads of new $600k+ McMansions out in the sticks with maybe 3 buses per day will do absolutely 0 to help the real issue.
    It’ll make a bunch of Nat donor land bankers who have been sitting on that land pretty friggin happy though & doubtless get them some nice New Year honors too.

  22. Just Julie 22

    Here’s your starter for 10. Who am I ? ” Yes, but Laaaabooour…..”

  23. felix 23

    Note that the OECD stats are based on a price to wages ratio ie affordability.

    Key responds to mention of this report by saying ‘Well I’ve lived in London and New York and I’ve been to Singapore and houses in Auckland are cheaper than those places’ or similar.

    ie answering a completely different question, one that was not asked. ie a strawman.

    Also note Guyon’s rebuttal, which was non-existent because Guyon is a turnip.

  24. Clemgeopin 24

    Come on Labour.!! Grab this by the horns

    How about legislating that the annual rent is not allowed to be more than 4 times the annual council rates, with the added proviso that councils cannot raise rates by more than the annual official inflation rate.

    For example,
    For a dwelling with annual council rate of say,…

    $2,000, Max rent per year=$8,000=$154/week
    $2,500, Max rent per year=$10,000=$192/week
    $3,000, Max rent per year=$12,000=$230/week
    #3500, Max rent per year=$14,000=$269/week
    $4,000, Max rent per year=$16,000=$308/week
    $4,500, Max rent per year=$18,000=$346/week
    $5,000, Max rent per year=$20,000=$385/week

    $10,000, Max rent per year=$40,000=$769/week
    $20,000, Max rent per year=$80,000=$1,538/week
    $40,000, Max rent per year=$160,000=$3,077/week
    $60,000, Max rent per year=$240,000=$4,615/week

    • Clemgeopin 24.1

      The proviso could even be that councils cannot raise rates by more than TWICE the annual official inflation rate.

      Is there any merit in my proposals? I am keen to hear your views on this idea.

      • Ecosse_Maidy 24.1.1

        Of course it has merit..At least you are giving the situation thought and coming up with a new way to see things and to make the whole thing fairer than it is right now.I think for this particular govt you might also need to factor in what a caravan site rates are too.Seeing as how that’s where Paula Bennett houses a lot of people in this country.Which when you think about it isn’t a lot better than living in a garage or a shed (and there are quite a few living in them too).Of course it leaves the state houses empty and ready to be sold.

        Problem?What Problem?…John Keys Quote of the year!!(and hopefully one that is remembered come election day.)

        • Clemgeopin 24.1.1.1

          Thanks for your comment. I was a little weary of my idea thinking it might be a completely nutty idea and not knowing if i had missed some consequences.

          I think this idea will work well if there is also a CGT on sale of houses except the primary home.

          The 3 provisions I indicated i.e,
          (a) The max rent limit (b) The council rate increase restriction (c) CGT on secondary houses, will together discourage using houses for capital enhancing speculation purposes,
          Also will keep council rates, rents and general inflation in control.

          The councils too will be prevented from crazy or extravagant schemes and will force councils to manage work and wages efficiently unlike now! [I may be wrong but from memory, I remember reading that Auckland council has MORE than 1,000 officers earning MORE than $100,000 each plus perks per year]

          i am really interested in more discussion on this. Like to hear all the good and bad consequences of this scheme and if bad, how it may be improved.

          • Clemgeopin 24.1.1.1.1

            Oh dear! Isn’t any one else here interested to comment or examine my (nice and original) idea??

    • Tracey 24.2

      Interesting idea Clem. I’m not a numbers person, so you will need others to do deeper analysis than I can provide…

      I do know that a homeowner should set aside on average 3-5000 a year to deal with the maintenace issues which inevitably arise from the house needing a repaint, to plumbing issues, replacement of weatherboards or part/whole roof etc. Most homeowners DO NOT keep this aside and so when the time comes they whack it on the mortgage.

      So that is also a figure you need to factor in.

      I suspect the biggest problem is meeting the mortgage of the owner. Most people I know who own rentals are 100% mortgage in the beginning.

      • Clemgeopin 24.2.1

        Thanks.
        The house owners will have enough set aside for repairs, mortgae and rates as they can charge 4 times the rates.

        Besides, if they are buying houses for capital gains, it is speculation and they should be aware of investment risks. We don’t need to carry their burden. They have insurance and their primary home as stand by anyway.
        Cheers

  25. hoom 25

    So I had a look at Trademe for places under $350k in Auckland, came up with these popular suburbs: Port Waikato, Tuakau, Orere Point, Rakino Island, Parakai, Helensville, Warkworth…

    Some apartments in CBD but a lot are either ones where Key will have bigger bathrooms or where the leasehold charge is 5 digits per annum.

    Take those out of the results & there is not a lot.

  26. Charlieboy 26

    Keys responses over six years have been relaxed,languid, and now truly banal. His crushing of the Hopes of the McGeehan Place end of town he cruelly used on his way to the top,verges on being cynically evil.
    As Paul Kelly said “the monstrous has become mundane”.

  27. Clemgeopin 27

    The OECD report re unaffordable housing is ACTUALLY POSITIVE!, says housing Minister!! UNBELIEVABLE Stuff!

    Prime Minister Key DENIES there is a housing crisis, and the Labour Party calls his views “OUT OF TOUCH!”

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Nick-Smith-on-NZs-house-price-crunch/tabid/1837/articleID/344883/Default.aspx

    AND YET……..

    The following poll indicates other than what these ministers saying. I think that both John Key and Nick Smith are actually ostriches with their small heads buried deep in the sand!

    POLL RESULT:

    Are NZ house prices far too expensive?
    Yes – and the Govt isn’t doing anything meaningful about it
    404 votes, 33.4%

    Yes – but the Govt is tackling it
    45 votes, 3.7%

    Yes – we need controls on foreign buyers
    225 votes, 18.6%

    Yes – we need a capital gains tax
    155 votes, 12.8%

    Yes – but it’s just a sign of a rising economy
    122 votes, 10.1%

    No, if you’re already on the property ladder it’s fine
    35 votes, 2.9%

    No, the problem’s limited to Auckland
    222 votes, 18.4%

    Total 1208 votes

    Here is the link for the article and the above poll:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/10057761/End-of-brain-drain-to-hit-house-prices

  28. hoom 28

    Apparently the way to fix this is to simply crank up rents so that the ratio between House cost & rent is more normal…
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10062393/Overvalued-houses-could-force-rents-up

    New Zealand Property Investors Federation executive officer Andrew King said the report would prompt landlords to raise rents. “Rents are actually undervalued and should be higher.”

    The average rent, he said, was $350 a week – at least $40 below what it should be – and tenants should expect increases soon.

    “We’re trying to get them used to the idea . . . and hopefully they’ll be a bit more planned and prepared for those rent increases when they do come.”

    Even though its pretty obvious that rent is constrained by the lack of renter income increases
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/10059830/Homes-too-dear-Only-in-Auckland-and-Christchurch

    It was not clear why rents had not kept up, unlike during the 1990s when both rents and house prices increased rapidly.

    “Maybe it’s an income constraint – incomes haven’t grown enough,” he said.

    “If that’s the case it places even more emphasis on the housing affordability issue.”

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