Early thoughts on the Botany by-election
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10:30 am, December 16th, 2010 - 28 comments
Categories: by-election -
Tags: botany by-election, jami-lee ross, kenneth wang, koro tawa, winston peters
The front-runner for National is Jamie-Lee Ross, who is just 25 years old. He’s currently a Supercity councillor and co-leader of CitRats. One of the main players in the (ongoing) smear campaign against Len Brown and a good mate of Whaleoil, there’s no doubting Ross has animal cunning. But he’s pretty light on record and when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office. Those factors will count against him but Ross would have to pull a Melissa Lee to come close to losing Wong’s 10,800 majority.
National will want to spin any win as an endorsement of John Key but, going by the Mana script, unless Ross manages to keep nearly all the majority intact, it will be judged a failure for Key.
Will Winston stand? I think he might. It’s worth remembering that his first seat was Hunua, which he won in 1978. Now, three electorates called Hunua have existed three times with very different boundaries. The modern Hunua electorate borders Botany to the south but the 1978 Hunua was extended further north, and only included the Hunua ranges to the south, whereas the modern Hunua goes right across to the west coast. Most of the voters in the 1978 Hunua that Peters won lived in what is now Botany. Sure, it was 33 years ago, and it was a tight race against Labour’s Malcolm Douglas (Roger’s brother), with Peters losing in 1981 to Colin Moyle. Nonetheless, there would be a certain sense of grandeur, so typical of Winston, to returning to the political scene by fighting in the area that first elected him to Parliament.
He wouldn’t win, of course. This is an electorate that is one third Asian and, even if NZF’s overtly racist days are long behind it, I can’t see many of them voting for Peters. But the race would give him a tremendous platform ahead of the general election. Especially if Labour effectively cedes the field, making him the main contender.
I think it is likely that Labour will do that. Koro Tawa lost to Wong by 10,800 votes last time. He hasn’t been confirmed as the candidate for the general election but no-one else seems to have put their hand up. Two campaigns in a year might be too much for a busy academic like Tawa, so maybe someone else will contest the by-election. Whether Tawa or someone else stands for Labour, they’re not going to win.
As with the by-election when Tariana Turia resigned her seat in Te Tai Hauauru, Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce since it will precede the general election by, at most, 8 months. More likely they’ll use it as an early launching pad for the election – rather than centre around the candidate as in Mana they could put them in a subsidary role and have Phil Goff rolling out policy and vision while challenging Key to defend his record. There’s no point keeping their powder dry to the last moment in their situation.
Rather than going all out to win, Labour will use this opportunity fine-tune its Auckland campaign machine, not that it has been short on practice with Mt Albert and the Supercity campaign. The party won’t want to expend a huge amount of money on a sure loser. (btw, I suspect one reason Key has opted for a by-election rather than timing Wong’s resignation and the general election so that they are within 6 months of each other and a by-election is unnecessary is to try to drain Labour’s funds).
Another interesting player is ACT’s Kenneth Wang. ACT has made strong plays for the Asian vote in the past and Wang won nearly 5,000 votes in 2008, close third to Tawa. If he is the only candidate who is both Asian and a former MP, he may well improve dramatically on that performance.
While a win for Ross is assured, there’s still an opportunity for this to be an exciting race if Labour seizes the opportunity to kick off its campaign early and if Peters and/or Wang eat into National’s majority.
An interesting note: if the four I’ve talked about end up being the main candidates, or even if Winston doesn’t come to the party, then we’ll have the remarkable situation of a general electorate seat being contested by 2 or 3 Maori and a Chinese-New Zealander without a Pakeha in the running. All part of the changing face of New Zealand.
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- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...1 week ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...1 week ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...1 week ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...1 week ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...1 week ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...2 weeks ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...2 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...2 weeks ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...2 weeks ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...3 weeks ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery Belgium
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...6 hours ago - Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...1 day ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...1 day ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...2 days ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...3 days ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...3 days ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...3 days ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...3 days ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...4 days ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...4 days ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...4 days ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...4 days ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...4 days ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...4 days ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...4 days ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...5 days ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...6 days ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...6 days ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...7 days ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...1 week ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...1 week ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...1 week ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...1 week ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...1 week ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...1 week ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...1 week ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...1 week ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...1 week ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...1 week ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...1 week ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...1 week ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...1 week ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...1 week ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 week ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...1 week ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...1 week ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...1 week ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...1 week ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...1 week ago
- Opinion: It’s time for an arts and creative sector strategyI was initially resistant to the idea often suggested to me that the Government should deliver an arts strategy. The whole point of the arts and creativity is that people should do whatever the hell they want, unbound by the dictates of politicians in Wellington. Peter Jackson, Kiri Te Kanawa, Eleanor ...1 week ago
- Fast-track bill could affect NZ's reputation – Transparency International
The ministers responsible for green-lighting major projects need to be open about potential conflicts of interest, says Transparency International. ...1 hour ago - We’re all feeling the collective grief and trauma of violence against women – but this is the pr...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University It has been a particularly distressing start to the year. There is little that can ease the current grief of individuals, families and communities who have needlessly lost a loved one to men’s ...3 hours ago - Species living closely together in symbiosis is far older and way more common than you might thinkSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Lichen, the first described example of symbiosis. AdeJ Artventure/Shutterstock Once known only to those studying biology, the word symbiosis is now widely used. Symbiosis is the intimate ...3 hours ago
- What is childhood dementia? And how could new research help?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim Hemsley, Head, Childhood Dementia Research Group, Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University Olena Ivanova/Shutterstock “Childhood” and “dementia” are two words we wish we didn’t have to use together. But sadly, around 1,400 ...4 hours ago
- Jobseekers get about $345 less than pensioners each fortnight. This gap is hurting, and is set to wi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has just published its second report. It was set up by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth in 2022 to provide: ...4 hours ago
- Does fighting inflation always lead to recession? What NZ data tellsHere is what 60 years of New Zealand data shows us. ...4 hours ago
- The government's 20 trips abroad in AprilThe government appears committed to overseas visits with 14 ministers and MPs in 18 countries this month. ...5 hours ago
- Government unveils fetal alcohol guidelines, plan for diagnosis trainingThe government is promising to step up the response to Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder, promising to boost diagnoses and raise awareness. ...6 hours ago
- Labor facing heavy defeat in Queensland, but faring better in federal pollsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample ...6 hours ago
- Why the potential for another Donald Trump presidency is making Iran very nervousSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Naeni, PhD candidate at Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University There’s been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the ...6 hours ago
- ‘The worst piece of law proposed since 1979’: Reactions to the Fast-track Approvals Bill
A brief round-up of submissions on the controversial proposed law. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, submissions on the controversial Fast-track Approvals Bill closed just hours after the government released a list of stakeholder organisations who were sent letters advising how they could ...7 hours ago - The Friday Poem: ‘Cereal giving’ by Robin PeaceA poem from Robin Peace’s new collection Detritus of Empire: feather / grass / rock. Cereal giving I see a woman’s hands, see her curious hands break a stalk as she walks through the tall prairie, the savannah, the steppe, wherever it was. See her idly bite the grass that ...7 hours ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending April 26The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38) A handsomely produced (debossed cover, lovely ...7 hours ago
- Te Rūnanga O Ngāti Whātua Welcomes Commissioner's Decision Regarding Awataha Marae
The Commissioner's decision validates the longstanding efforts of the local community and ensures that Awataha Marae will be managed to serve the needs of the local community, particularly for hosting tangihanga. ...8 hours ago - We reconstructed landscapes that greeted the first humans in Australia around 65,000 years agoSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Salles, Associate professor, University of Sydney Examples of Australian landscapes. Unsplash Seventy thousand years ago, the sea level was much lower than today. Australia, along with New Guinea and Tasmania, formed a connected landmass known as Sahul. Around this time – ...9 hours ago
- What do we lose when our old suburbs disappear?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Castagna, Lecturer, Creative Writing, Western Sydney University Day Day Market, Parramatta Photo: Garry Trinh I live on the edge of Parramatta, Australia’s fastest-growing city, on the kind of old-fashioned suburban street that has 1950s fibros constructed in the post-war housing boom, ...9 hours ago
- Does fighting inflation always lead to recession? What 60 years of NZ data can tell usSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ryan, Teaching Fellow in Economics, University of Waikato GettyImages fatido/Getty Images There is an ongoing global debate over whether the high inflation seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic can be lowered without a recession. New Zealand is not ...9 hours ago
- After spending $700,000 on pins for Covid-19 workers, department now cutting costsA government office that set aside millions for lapel pins for pandemic workers is now looking to cut back on spending. ...9 hours ago
- ‘A hell of a lot of fun’: Our reviews of Chris Isaak’s dazzling Auckland showThe ‘Wicked Game’ heartthrob is in his late 60s now. That didn’t stop him putting on a lively, goofy and very sparkly show. Apart from ‘Wicked Game’, which graces a sultry playlist of mine simply called 💋, my last sustained Chris Isaak listening session took place when I was about ...9 hours ago
- The Week in Politics: Days of drama and demotionsAnalysis - Two ministers were stripped of portfolios in a warning to Cabinet, drama broke out at the Waitangi Tribunal, and the gang patch ban bill ran into opposition. ...10 hours ago
- Hear me out: All I want is a TrueBliss T-shirtTara Ward makes an impassioned plea for some vital pop culture merch. In April 1999, I became obsessed with a new reality television show called Popstars. Every Tuesday night, five strangers transformed into music royalty before my very eyes as Joe, Keri, Carly, Erika and Megan were chosen to form ...11 hours ago
- Solemn ANZAC dawn service at PNG’s Isurava battle memorialPNG Post-Courier In the early hours of ANZAC Day, aerial photographs captured an impressive gathering of Australians and Papua New Guineans at Isurava in the Northern (Oro) Province. The solemn dawn service yesterday was held at a site steeped in history, where some of the fiercest battles of World War ...11 hours ago
- Political editors panel: A reshuffle and the fast trackListen - RNZ's Jo Moir and NZ Herald's Claire Trevett dissect the demotion of two ministers and the PM's response on Morning Report. ...12 hours ago
- After-hours clinics on verge of collapse in some regionsOverworked GPs have signalled they can no longer cover, while funding is falling short. ...12 hours ago
- Oranga Tamariki Axes Specialist Māori Roles, Weakens Commitment To Te Ao MāoriThe PSA is shocked that Oranga Tamariki has used the cost cutting drive to downgrade its commitment to Te Ao Māori and remove many specialist Māori roles. ...12 hours ago
- China’s money only goes so far – Kokoda shows why history binds PNG and Australia in a far deepe...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Kemish, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland There can be no more powerful symbol of the relationship between Australia and Papua New Guinea than the prime ministers of these neighbouring countries walking together on the ...12 hours ago
- We spoke to young people about sexual consent. They understand the concept, but don’t always ask i...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Waling, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow in Sex & Sexuality, La Trobe University BAZA Production/Shutterstock Sexual consent has been a major focus in Australia for the past few years. In early 2022 the federal government mandated consent education in ...12 hours ago
- Longer-lasting ozone holes over Antarctica expose seal pups and penguin chicks to much more UVSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Robinson, Distinguished Professor and Deputy Director of ARC Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), University of Wollongong, University of Wollongong Andrew Netherwood Over the last 25 years, the ozone hole which forming over Antarctica each spring has started to shrink. ...12 hours ago
- Granting legal ‘personhood’ to nature is a growing movement – can it stem biodiversity loss?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Viktoria Kahui, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Economics, University of Otago Getty Images/Amy Toensing Biodiversity is declining at rates unprecedented in human history. This suggests the ways we currently use to manage our natural environment are failing. One emerging concept focuses on ...12 hours ago
- Will checking character references really help you find the best candidate for a job?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Colin Bednall, Associate Professor in Management, Swinburne University of Technology marvent/Shutterstock Finding the best person to fill a position can be tough, from drafting a job ad to producing a shortlist of top interview candidates. Employers typically consider information from ...12 hours ago
- A guide to Wellington’s best BYO restaurantsWondering where to host your next BYO? Whether its a small gathering or a massive party, we’ve got some recommendations. I was first introduced to the concept of BYOs at Dunedin’s India Gardens, a legendary but sadly defunct establishment, which purveyed enormous quantities of mango chicken to Aotearoa’s drunkest future ...12 hours ago
- New rock art discoveries in Eastern Sudan tell a tale of ancient cattle, the ‘green Sahara’ and ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julien Cooper, Honorary Lecturer, Department of History and Archaeology, Macquarie University Julien Cooper The hyper-arid desert of Eastern Sudan, the Atbai Desert, seems like an unlikely place to find evidence of ancient cattle herders. But in this dry environment, my new ...13 hours ago
- Paul Goldsmith starts as new Media Minister replacing sacked Melissa LeeThe media industry is "under pressure", Paul Goldsmith says, but he plans to plot a path forward as he takes up the difficult role. ...13 hours ago
- Media industry sheds few tears for minister LeeThe sector says it’s hopeful her replacement Paul Goldsmith will be able to throw it a lifeline, after six months with a minister deemed missing in action, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign ...14 hours ago
- Is NZ bringing in 'Indonesian coal every month to keep the lights on'?Analysis: The Resource Minister said it, but is it true and why does it matter? ...14 hours ago
- More spending cuts needed to stablise government finances – economistThe government can't just rely on axing public sector jobs and has to do more to cut spending, says the chief economist at a free market think tank. ...14 hours ago
- The government's 22 trips abroad in AprilThe government appears committed to overseas visits with 14 miniters and MPs in 18 countries this month. ...15 hours ago
- Loopholes will be exploited in new vape rules – expertsThere is no doubt vape manufacturers will find and exploit loopholes in new regulations, say marketing experts. ...15 hours ago
- Aotearoa Party Merges With Rock The Vote NZ Party And John Alcock Elected As Party LeaderRock The Vote NZ, known for its advocacy for minor party unity and its role within the Freedoms NZ Coalition during the 2023 General Election, celebrates this merger as a strategic enhancement of its operational strength and outreach. ...16 hours ago
- After spending $2m on pins for Covid-19 workers, department now cutting costsGovernment department that spent $2m on lapel pins to honour Covid-19 workers is now looking to make cuts. ...16 hours ago
- An afternoon at the Repair Café, where everyday objects get a second lifeNearly everyone has experienced the frustration of something you use breaking and being difficult or expensive to fix. Proposed legislation could change that. It’s been raining on and off all Sunday afternoon but people are lining up outside a building in a corner of Gribblehirst Park in Sandringham, Auckland. In ...16 hours ago
- Dreaming of my not-wedding dayWhat does a forever relationship look like when you don’t believe in marriage? And how do you celebrate it? This essay is part of our Sunday Essay series, made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. I’m going to do it, right now. I’m going to say ...16 hours ago
- Just Life exit from NZX puts listed company regulation under microscope
Just Life’s chief executive says the exchange’s regulatory burden outweighs any benefits to small business The post Just Life exit from NZX puts listed company regulation under microscope appeared first on Newsroom. ...16 hours ago - Prime Minister jumps the gun in ThailandThe Prime Minister has committed to resuming direct flights to Thailand. But it’s not a promise he will be able to deliver on anytime soon. The post Prime Minister jumps the gun in Thailand appeared first on Newsroom. ...16 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 26 AprilThe post Daily crossword, Friday 26 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...16 hours ago
- The outlook for engineering specialists looks bleakOpinion: Delays getting to the starting line of new programmes of work are causing significant disruption across the sector The post The outlook for engineering specialists looks bleak appeared first on Newsroom. ...16 hours ago
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The sleeper will be Stephen Ching’s New Citizen Party. They may use Botany to see what sort of reach they can get.
Has Ching formed his NCParty? His involvement in the Labour Party should be terminated – and good riddance.
Yup, it’s been registered. It even has a wikipedia page. So far it’s main news is being connected to the crafar farms bid…
I recall Ching saying that his Party was designed to assist the Crafar Farms bid.
Ching is always quoted by the Herald as being a Labour Party member when they want to embarass Labour. He was still a member earlier this year I gather has the NZ Council expelled him from the Party or has his membership lapsed?
Whatever scenario it will be good for Labour to be rid of the encumbrance of the Chings.
It is tempting to consider the following as one option …
… that Labour declare the Botany by-election, being a few months off the general elections, effectively a waste of the electorate’s time and a waste of the party’s & taxpayers’ resources, and that Labour will fully contest that seat as would be appropriate at the general election
… that since it is the role of an opposition holding the current government to account, Labour will carefully target and campaign the Botany by-election in a strategic and smart way
“nearly all the majority intact”
Hmm. On the Mana result that would mean anything less that 2500 or so to National would be bad for the Nats.
Is that about the number you have in mind?
As the current party vote majority (which when you have non-incumbents is the more reliable measure of party support) is 11,400, I think whatever proportion of that relating to relative turn-out would be fair. So maybe about 8,000. Labour fell just slightly short of their similar target in Mana due to Matt McCarten cannibalising a bit of the vote. If the New Citizen’s Party run and do okay I might allow a few hundred less as National’s target…
Just to be fair.
It’s a real pity Botany isn’t the reverse of Mana. If Wong’s 2008 Candidate-Vote majority had been significantly higher than National’s Party-Vote majority (in the same way that Winnie Laban was vastly more popular than Labour in Mana), then we’d have a very interesting situation.
To be consistent, leading MSM journalists (and influential Right-Wing Bloggers like Farrar) would be forced to treat Wong’s personal majority as a “National” one in the same way they erroneously did with Laban/Labour in Mana. And if Wong’s personal (Candidate-Vote) majority had been, say, 3000 votes higher than National’s Party-Vote in Botany (as with Laban and Labour in Mana), then I’m pretty sure you’d see the same sort of partial collapse. (given that in a ONE-vote By-Election people will generally opt for the candidate representing their 2008 Party-Vote preference – their core political allegiance). You’d have all these former Wong-supporting Labour, Green and perhaps Minor-party voters (along with the less pragmatic section of Act supporters – those unwilling to vote strategically for the Nats), opting for their own candidate. And to be consistent, the MSM would be forced to make the same dire conclusions about National’s election chances.
But, unfortunately, whereas Laban was 3000 votes (9 percentage points) MORE popular than Labour in Mana (2008), Wong was, in fact, 2000 votes (5 percentage points) LESS popular than National in Botany.
So, if people generally vote along Party lines, we should expect the National candidate’s vote to increase (at least in % terms). However, Eddie’s right in that Act’s Wang may well prove a real drawcard, particularly if he’s the only Asian candidate. All is not lost.
This seat could be open to any local B-grade celebrity also wannabe politician who wished to stand. National’s brand has been discredited by Pansy, and while Jami is ambitious and talented, however is ultimately a cheap party hack.
They’d be better off choosing Paul Henry.
it’s a mistake to think asians wouldn’t vote for mr peters. you would think that they would be very against him, but a surprising number aren’t. there are those who buy into the anti-maori, treaty-gravy-train message. there are those well-settled asian nz’ers who look down on lately- arrived migrants & think that immigration should be tightened so these newcomers can no longer get in.
a lot of the asian demographic is high-income, conservative in nature – our immigration policies are designed so that it is more likely that conservatives rather than progressives are going to settle in this country (something that mr peters never bothers to bring up in his overblown rhetoric on immigration). the messages mr peters gives out often appeal to their conservative outlook – especially the law and order stuff. wasn’t it botany that saw that big march basically for harsher sentences?
so yeah, don’t make the mistake of making blanket assumptions about any ethnic group. not even about asians in relation to nz first.
I’ve always been surprised with the number of asians in NZF…
Yes I too have spoken to Asians who generally prefer Peters’ policies to Nationals, but are uneasy about the anti-Asian aspect.
Winston can be his own worse enemy.
mm typo. ‘worst’
“when he wins he will force a by-election for the Howick council seat after just a couple of months in office”
He might not resign. If Jim Anderton could be a party leader and the mayor of a whole city up until an earthquake hit then why cant he be a Backbench MP and council member (without many other appointments)?
“Labour could choose not to run a candidate at all and declare the whole exercise an expensive farce”.
Perhaps, but I think it would dent their credibility as a major party if they didnt run. Labour have forced two by elections in safe seats this term which National have fought, they might look like they’re scared if all of a sudden a safe National seat pops up and they dont want to come to the party. Also they can hardly label the by election a farce when they were the ones calling for Pansy to resign, and the by election is simply a consequence of that.
He has been quoted as promising to resign from the Auckland Council. Not just if he wins the seat, but if he wins the nomination.
From stuff, yesterday:
Ross said if successful in winning selection and the Botany by-election he will step down as a member of the Auckland council.
“It would not be possible to do justice to both jobs, especially with the expanded role for new Auckland councillors.”
I think Labour will waltz in.
national is in disarray.
It is so hard to tell if you are serious about anything at all, randal.
It will be great to see Jami-Lee Ross off the council. His focus on muck-raking is not what Auckland needs. He will be much less harmless in parliament and fade into the background. He seems to be the only councillor who doesnt want to pull together and get things done for the good of auckland.
Why put such a muck-raker into parliament when the demand is to raise the standard of behaviour above that sanctioned by John Key??
Botany would lose a corrupt MP and gain a vicious muck-raking whelp.
What about Aaron Bhatnagar? I have heard his name mentioned for the Nats in Epsom, but he might have a look at Botany.
Just to let you know folks – I’ve thrown my scarf into the ring.
I’ll be standing in the Botany by-election as an Independent candidate on an anti-corruption/pro (GENUINE) transparency platform.
Opposition to privatisation / contracting out of public services will also be part of my platform.
For more information – check out: http://waterpressure.wordpress.com
Penny Bright
Media Spokesperson
Water Pressure Group
Judicially recognised ‘Public Watchdog’ on Metrowater, water and Auckland regional governance matters.
“Anti-corruption campaigner”.
Attendee: Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference 2009
Attendee: Transparency International 14th International Anti-Corruption Conference (IACC) 2010
Auckland Mayoral candidate 2010
[email deleted]
Just find someone called White or Wright on the Labour Party membership list in region.
It would be interesting to have a system that disallowed party candidates and allowed only independants.
They present their policies and any promises broken politicians be fined, and then jailed the 2nd time.
I wish Penney a Bright future
Could Raymond Huo cut the majority in Botany perhaps?
I think Winston will look at Botany (unless Te Atatu comes up), it would be a great platform for him towards the 5%. It could maybe be a good way of dispelling any notion that he’s anti-Asian.
A new list of possible candidates in the Pakuranga Times
http://www.times.co.nz/cms/news/2010/12/names_in_ring_to_be_next_mp.php