Is this the next GFC?

24 comments on “Is this the next GFC? ”

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1. Sabine 1

   17 March 2020 at 4:48 pm

   yes. it is.
2. bill 2

   17 March 2020 at 5:25 pm

   Aye well. Just like last time, the monstrously idiotic fuckers are propping up the wrong economy and relying on bullshit notions of 'trickle down' to impact the human one.

   Wind down the financial economy – shut down superfluous economic activity. For ever.

   Didn't Jacinda make some pronouncement around climate change and compare it to nuclear? Hmm. Oh look! There goes the can, kicked down the road by team "pretend and extend".
   • Sabine 2.1

     17 March 2020 at 5:33 pm

     kinder and gentler, like putting on a condom, adding some vaseline and then continuing to screwing the population over with nary a thought about discomfort given.
   • adam 2.2

     17 March 2020 at 11:33 pm

     When the dominate political parties heads are so far up the arse of Liberalism – did you expect anything else Bill?

     Only corporations matter, and making sure enough people stay afloat so the filthy peasants don't revolt, is the only game in town.
     • bill 2.2.1

       17 March 2020 at 11:56 pm

       lol No, I expected nothing different. Hey, was that a total of US$2.3 trillion the US government was able to just magic up and throw at their stock market …that just basically disappeared?

       Robertson's idea is fundamentally different….how?

       These people are idiotic fucks who need to be set onto the high seas on some cruise ship that's never allowed to berth.
       • KJT 2.2.1.1

         18 March 2020 at 8:51 am

         For a start, unlike the USA, a lot of the money is going to the bottom end of town, where it won't just disappear into millionaire pockets.

         The wage subsidies capped so they apply to small business, sole traders and employees only, is a particularly good example of a Non, Neo-liberal, policy.

         Refusing to stop the minimum wage increase and putting up welfare shows that the Government actually has more spine, than I expected from recent history.
         • bill 2.2.1.1.1

           18 March 2020 at 9:47 am

           Unlike the USA which is reportedly on the cusp of sending out US$1000+ cheques to every-one in the US?

           That's just a tad more than the pre-abatement NZ$60 or NZ$70 Robertson has proposed for NZs poorest.

           Tulsi Gabbard proposed ongoing payments of US$1000 alongside other measures. But sure. Since she is the perfect poster child for liberal identity types, liberal identity types have not one good word to say about her or anything she says.

           I'm a poor person and will receive some wholly inadequate tens of dollars, starting in a few weeks time. Thing is, I may well be infected before then and…well, there won't be any well stocked cupboards or anything of any other contingency stuff that relies on $$. And that scenario doesn't alter if I'm infected in a month from now…or in two months from now.

           You think that situation – which will be common as muck across NZ, can be characterised by saying that "a lot of the money is going to the bottom end of town.."?

           Sabine has already run the gauntlet of the brainless tribal wankfucks on this site for having the temerity to point out some obvious shortcomings of Robertson's "rescue plan" from the perspective of a small business owner – ie, wage relief to help pay non-existent workers alongside no relief from regular and ongoing small business costs such as leases/rents/insurance/utilities…

           Fuck. Even Mr Ed "middle of the road" Miliband is suggesting, among a host of other measures, the suspension of payments for rent and utilities.

           Anyway. Bottom line. I can't get my head around the inanity of prioritising the salvation of a theory on how we should do things – not when in practice that theory has facilitated the quick spread of this virus and besides that, it tanks the viability of this planet in terms of human habitation.

           We have an opportunity and a choice to make. And following the lead of the the same desperately dull fucks who continue to advocate for everything that got us here in the first place, won't be an opportunity grasped, and will only (obviously) default to us being swept along their chosen path of "pretend and extend".

           And that doesn't end well.
           • RedLogix 2.2.1.1.1.1

             18 March 2020 at 12:17 pm

             Australia has already done a $750 per person handout to all low income earners and beneficiaries.

             The household stimulus will cost $4.76bn, with payments to begin flowing from 31 March. All welfare recipients and concession card holders will receive the $750 payment, including 2.4 million pensioners and those with a commonwealth seniors card.
             • KJT …

               19 March 2020 at 8:52 am

               Australia's announced total stimulus so far, is about a quarter, per capita, of New Zealand's.
           • Koreropono 2.2.1.1.1.2

             18 March 2020 at 12:30 pm

             There's something immensely pleasing about seeing the uncomfortable truth being stated in such a brutal and undeniable way – keep up the good work Bill, as always enjoy your honesty and reality checks – worth coming to TS to read!
         • Jim 2.2.1.1.2

           18 March 2020 at 5:00 pm

           "For a start, unlike the USA, a lot of money is going to the bottom end of town, where it wont just disappear into millionaire pockets."

           So the super market barons are doing pretty well lately.

           Tell me do you think the average Beneficiary is going to spend her/his extra dollars in to the supermarkets Barons pocket, or will they spend it Bungy Jumping on a trip to Queenstown or Rotorua where the operators are suffering?
           • KJT 2.2.1.1.2.1

             18 March 2020 at 9:21 pm

             The minimum wage paying, tax dodging tourism operators, who have been inflicting the costs of all those tourists on the community, while making good profits.

             They have been included in the Government help package, though. So. They are not actually missing out.

             &nbs
             Meanwhile more on welfare can afford decent food, which helps their cognitive abilities, health and general welfare. Meaning they are more likely to be able to contribute to society, and be more resistant to coronavirus.
3. Muttonbird 3

   17 March 2020 at 5:32 pm

   Media apocalypse until the politicians blinked.
4. gsays 4

   17 March 2020 at 7:59 pm

   So what would be the big infrastructure builds be that would contribute to resilience this time round?

   Pharmaceutical factory? Insulin production. Anti-biotics. Oral contraceptive….
   • A 4.1

     18 March 2020 at 6:10 am

     Basic housing? Specifically to those who the current stock does not suit. Plenty to do there.
     • gsays 4.1.1

       18 March 2020 at 7:24 am

       True about housing.

       There are at least two good sized sites in west Palmy that have sat empty for many years now. Ideal for housing.
5. RedLogix 5

   18 March 2020 at 7:28 am

   Most airlines in the world will file for bankruptcy sometime in May. (Except of course all the Chinese ones who can be subsidised by a CCP willing to print infinite amounts of money if they wish)

   This can of worms may well suddenly get a whole lot more wriggly if Boeing files for bankruptcy sometime in the second half of this year as the truth comes out about the 737MAX. My bet is that it will never fly commercially again and when airlines sue for hundreds of billions to recover their costs and damages … Boeing may cease to exist as we know it. The US govt may well fund a defense oriented spinoff, but the commercial entity could collapse down to a maintenance operation, leaving airlines almost everywhere with a massive problem.
   • KJT 5.1

     18 March 2020 at 8:42 am

     You reckon the USA, won't print "infinite amounts of money" to bail out billionaire shareholders?

     They did for the GFC.
   • Phil 5.2

     18 March 2020 at 11:25 am

     Most airlines in the world will file for bankruptcy sometime in May.

     This is complete and utter nonsense, RL.

     Take Air New Zealand as an example. They've got $2.2b of equity on the balance sheet at December 2019. Even if *all* their revenue dried up and *none* of their expenses changed they'd need at least 5-6 months to eat through that equity and be insolvent. Plus, there will be a whole range of business continuity insurance arrangements being triggered and called on to provide financial support.

     They've also got a bunch of enormous aircraft that are assets on the balance sheet, which could be borrowed against to shore up liquidity if short term payables eat through the $1b of cash on hand.
     • RedLogix 5.2.1

       18 March 2020 at 12:08 pm

       Maybe this is a more nuanced take:

       Sydney-based aviation consultant Peter Harbison, who is chairman of the Centre for Aviation, was among those making headline-catching calls.

       By the end of May-2020, most airlines in the world would be bankrupt, he said, calling for "coordinated government and industry action" to avoid a catastrophe.

       "The likely prospect is that we emerge from this crisis — whenever that might be — with 20 or 30 airlines worldwide," Mr Harbison told ABC News.

       "The airlines that do survive are the ones that governments prop up."

       I agree that Air NZ is probably in a better position than most, but ‘eating through their equity’ is only going to be possible if their bankers let them. And equity is not the same thing as cash in hand.
6. David Mac 6

   18 March 2020 at 9:20 am

   This has the potential to cut deeper than the GFC. It was over a thing, money. This is over people. We were broke at the end of the GFC, this time we're going to funerals.
7. Ad 7

   18 March 2020 at 10:23 am

   Volkswagen have shut their European plants, plus Lamborghini
8. AB 8

   18 March 2020 at 11:10 am

   Is this the new GFC. You'd hope not – instead of a bailout of banks who indulged in a crooked, speculative orgy, it might be a bailout of real, productive businesses and citizens.
9. Ad 9

   18 March 2020 at 12:43 pm

   I have a sneaking suspicion the UK and US governments are going to drastically alter their economic support packages once the impact on jobs and tax take hits really become apparent.

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