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Latest Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 7th, 2014 - 168 comments
Categories: greens, Judith Collins, labour, national, polls - Tags:

Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and the results will be of concern to the Government.  Labour is up 2.5% to 31%, the Greens are up 3% to 14.5% while National is down 6% to 42.5%.  It appears that the beneficial effect of the Royal Tour has worn off and the divisions highlighted by Maurice Williamson’s resignation and Judith Collins’ continuing difficulties have had their effect.

Although it is only one poll and the trend rather than individual results are more important the results will be heartening to the left and of deep concern to National.  Of real concern to them is that the poll was taken from April 21 to May 4.  Williamson’s difficulties surfaced on May 1.  Collins’ melt down happened on May 4.

It will be interesting to see how National reacts to this poll.  It could be that Collins’ prospects of retaining her Ministerial position are even worse now.

168 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan”

  1. Saarbo 1

    This is heartening…clearly people are seeing National for what they are: a hopeless, idealess bunch of ignorant conservatives looking after the elites…as for Labour…we just have keep dong the mahi, and it wont stop if we win…good turn around!

    • karol 1.1

      Actually, while this poll is up for Lab-green (and the Internet Party), overall, not much change from the general trend of previous polls.

      • Saarbo 1.1.1

        Maybe Karol…but I just get the feel that the Willliamson/Collins thing has opened up National for what it is, and as the saying goes, Party’s don’t win the election, they lose it…I think National have kicked off their campaign to lose this election….big time.

      • swordfish 1.1.2

        @ karol “overall, not much change from the general trend of previous polls.”

        Don’t know how you can say that, karol. Significantly better for the Left / worse for the Right than recent polls. Looking just at Roy Morgan, my quick calculations suggest

        Left Bloc 48%
        Right Bloc 45%

        Compare that to the previous 3 RMs

        Early April:
        Left 42%
        Right 52%

        Late March:
        Left 46%
        Right 48%

        Early March:
        Left 45.5 %
        Right 50%

        And, of course, the February Polls were particularly bad for the Left / Good for the Right. The Late March Roy Morgan was an unusally good poll for the Left but the latest is quite clearly even better. This is actually something out of the ordinary. And not only before the Collins’s meltdown but also, arguably, before the full force of the Williamson saga.

        So, Left Bloc 48%, Right Bloc 45% and bear in mind that both National and Right Bloc support were consistently over-stated (month after month) throughout the 18 months leading up to both the 2008 and 2011 general elections, with the Left slightly under-stated. Hence, the latest Roy Morgan is likely to mean something closer to Left 49%, Right 42%.

        • swordfish 1.1.2.1

          I should add that the March polls were comparatively poor for the Nats and the Right (something the MSM grossly misinterpreted) but, even then, this Roy Morgan stands out. So much for all the MSM crapola about the dire electoral consequences of Shane Jones’s departure !

        • Jackal 1.1.2.2

          Yep! The polling ended on the day Judith Collins publicly spat the dummy about Katie Bradford and Maurice Williamson’s resignation. There’s sure to be a further decline in support for National because of her outburst!

      • Tania 1.1.3

        This poll is probably settling down after the royal visit. I don’t think this poll reflects the current issues of Maurice and Collins and that may come in the next poll but it will probably settle down after a period of time unless these oravida and corruption issues stay in peoples minds.

        • Clemgeopin 1.1.3.1

          They will, because spousal assaults won’t top suddely, and people still use milk, don’t they? Constant reminders, right there!

    • Enough is Enough 1.2

      The key now is to keep the pressure on them.

      With the budget next week , we need to steal the narrative away from “rockstar economy” and highlight the stagnating disgracefully high unemployment rate.

      They will come out with bull shit good news stories next week.

      Time to chuck a few more dirty grenades there way and starve them “good news” oxygen. Keep the scandals coming Grant & Co.

      • Clemgeopin 1.2.1

        It is more important for Labour to come up with many more more bold, imaginative, and unique policies for the good of the ordinary people and the country. Let the privileged wealthy elite be National special concern as usual.

        • Enough is Enough 1.2.1.1

          Like the transport policy, or the hairbrained Kiwi assure policy that moves all the risk of a natural disaster to the taxpayer?

    • Tracey 1.3

      i hate that our future is determined by polls.

      this poll will get john keys top drawer open…

      imo greens and labour go back to policy and keep mallard muzzled and see if national want the campaign to go down in the mud. slater will be the conduit…

    • Tom Gould 1.4

      The poll was taken over the period when the House was in recess, so no question time, and included the Easter and Anzac Day holidays. It also included the Labour monetary policy launch which many say was their best positive publicity for months.

  2. Bad for National and yes, worse still may be to come in the next poll. But they are bouncing wildly, their results this year:

    43.5, 47, 48, 48.5, 45.5, 43, 48.5, 42.5

    While Labour have bounced back a bit it still shows they are struggling to impress. This year:

    33.5, 33, 30, 30,5, 31.5, 32, 28.5, 31

    I think there’s a sizable chunk of voters unsure who they see as reliable to lead the next Government, but Labour aren’t attracting them.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Pete I made this comment in open mike as well, you do not understand MMP do you.

      • Pete George 2.1.1

        Labour 31 to Green+NZ First+Mana 21.5
        If you add Internet Party that’s 31 to 23.

        Yeah, I understand MMP. Do you understand the implications of that Greg?

        • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.1

          What ACTUALLY matters is not any IMPLICATION, but what the PEOPLE of the country want. THEY are the masters. No one else!

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.2

          Yeah, I understand MMP. Do you understand the implications of that Greg?

          It means National is fucked unless John Key decides to hold Winston’s hand

          • veutoviper 2.1.1.2.1

            “Unless John Key decides to hold Winston’s hand”.

            Somehow, I think that would be the other way around – unless Winston decides to hold Key’s hand. LOL.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Hopefully Winston will want 2 legacy building terms in government as his last. Not only will National be tearing the country down in the next term which he will want nought to do with, the chances of 4 Tory terms in a row at this stage are zip.

              So as long as Labour and the Greens aren’t insanely bad at it, NZF should definitely be onboard a strong coalition of the Centre Left.

            • lprent 2.1.1.2.1.2

              …unless Winston decides to hold Key’s hand. LOL.

              Hand? Why would he want that? We all know what he wants..

              You meant HEAD didn’t you

              • veutoviper

                That could be taken a number of ways!

                Personally I cannot see Winston supporting Key. In the last few months, he has been playing tag team with Labour – and to a lesser degree with the Greens. Sitting next to them in the House has helped breakdown that barrier imo. He has jumped to their defence more and more recently in Question Time.

                • Scott1

                  That is just standard election politics.
                  In the end Labour will need to negotiate with him before and with priority over negotiating with the greens or else Winston will already be ready to sign a deal with national before they even have a position.

          • Pete George 2.1.1.2.2

            “It means National is fucked unless John Key decides to hold Winston’s hand”

            And Labour is in exactly the same position except that Cunliffe, Norman and Turei would all need to be holding hands with Winston.

        • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.3

          ACT(0.5)+UF(0.5)+Cons(0.5)=TOTAL 1.5%! Ha, ha! Do you understand the implications of that PG?

          • mickysavage 2.1.1.3.1

            😀

          • Pete George 2.1.1.3.2

            Yes, on it’s own it means nothing, but there’s quite possibly two seats there (the Conservatives look like a very expensive folly). This term those two seats made the difference between National having a dominate hand in government or having to rely on Peters or losing power.

            You and Greg don’t seem to understand that, it’s one of the basics of MMP.

            • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.3.2.1

              I will put it to you that all three candidates of ACT, UF and Cons will lose in their electorates and none of these three parties will reach the 5% threshold,

              • I don’t think any of them will get close to 5% and an electorate win looks very unlikely for Conservatives. ACT and UF are probably as likely to win their current electorate seats as lose them, although it’s too soon to call either way.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                I can see why the hairpiece might blow off, but what makes you think Jamie Unclecousin’s anonymous candidate will fail to win the rotten borough of Epsom?

                • Hayden

                  Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi!

                  He’ll probably still win it though.

                • Clemgeopin

                  My gut feeling. The voters of Epsom would not want to be taken for granted and dictated to once again, as they have had pretty bad experience of both ACT and National during the last term. Key has lost and is losing his mojo and trustworthiness. I think the vote will be split between ACT and National and National may scrape through. Also, more National votes may go towards Labour rather than ACT.

                  • Mike S

                    I think you’re living in dreamland. Epson voters will do exactly what Key tells them to do. Guaranteed.

                    I still sit and wonder what makes the people in Ohariu such twats though. I mean, Peter Dunne? Bewildering.

                    The Greens should tell their supporters in Ohariu to vote for the labor candidate to get rid of the fence sitter once and for all.

              • Tracey

                big call. epsom will go the way national wants it togo.. same with ohariu.

                what evidence do you have that national wants both those seats?.

          • Bearded Git 2.1.1.3.3

            Ha ha like it Clem. I think the most important result here us that the IP is polling THREE TIMES the level of the Conservatives (1.5 v 0.5)

            Larf!

            Great poll for the Greens too.

    • Clemgeopin 2.2

      Don’t be a dinosaur. Get with the play. The electoral system has changed!
      Forget National or Labour, but think in terms of Left, Right blocks….like this:

      National(42.5)+ACT(0.5)+UF(0.5)+Cons(0.5)+Maori(1)+NZF(6)=51%
      Labour(31)+Greens(14.5)+Mana(1)+IP(1.5)+NZF(6)=54%

      Obviously, the National and the Rightist vote has to fall further as it will, and the Labour, Greens and Leftist vote has to go up as it will do in the next five months. National and the opposition are working hard on it!

      • Tracey 2.2.1

        you still have to factor in electoral seats clem. unless you can convince me otherwise any calculation has to include epsom to unclecousin and ohariu to i kind of care about families but i mainly care about really wealthy families and myself dunne.

    • Tania 2.3

      I enjoyed the First Union General Secretary on Q&A when he says that the media has created a myth about National and what the people preferences are when they should dig under that myth and look at what is happening on the ground which is something totally different to what the media spit out. He says that polling in their union actually increased in labours favor to 75%.http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a/s2014-ep45-video-5941624

      • Tania 2.3.1

        He also surmises that labour lost not from the polls but from not being able to get their supporters to the polling stations to vote.

      • Tracey 2.3.2

        thanks for the link and comments.

        lets remember all the folks who dont watch the news, dont read blogs or newspapers, they are thinking for themselves and based on their current experiences.

        • Tania 2.3.2.1

          Yes and they are mainly our supporters who do not care what is happening except to try and make ends meet

  3. Disraeli Gladstone 3

    I like the fact that I can always tell what the general Roy Morgan poll’s result is by whether it is given its own post or left as a comment three quarters of the way down the Open Mic thread.

    • Paul 3.1

      Well you won’t hear about this one in the corporate media.

      • Melb 3.1.1

        Who? I’ve seen it covered by 3 News, Fairfax, and the Herald.

        • Paul 3.1.1.1

          Yup..hidden away.
          Now imagine if Labour had dropped 6%..
          Top headline, a newspaper poll, several opinion pieces, hours on talk hate radio….

    • mickysavage 3.2

      The last Roy Morgan post that I did was in January. As a practice I have steered away from poll reporting but I thought this result was interesting and significant.

    • lprent 3.3

      …I can always tell what the general Roy Morgan poll’s result is by whether it is given its own post or left as a comment three quarters of the way down the Open Mic thread.

      Bullshit. Why bother lying. When it comes to how this site is run I get irritated by people trying to tell us how we operate. I may decide to take offense if I see it first if I’m moderating.

      RM polls tend to get reported here about every 3 months, usually authors feel interested in writing about them because there has been a long enough period to see a trend amongst the bounce. Last time National had been doing well. This time they have not.

      Very few of the other polls are ever reported until very close to the election. They are so infrequent that they are damn near useless to see what level of bounce is going on. Often I wonder if they just go for the headlines.

      People virtually always put a link in for polls in OpenMike. Most of the time it isn’t even an author. If I notice a RM poll I often throw the graph images in so people can see the trend lines.

      • Disraeli Gladstone 3.3.1

        I didn’t mean anything malicious by it, just a bit of friendly teasing.

        I think it’s a bit harsh to say I’m lying, though. Unless I’m misreading the search results, the last four Roy Morgan polls that have been made as their own post had Labour: up 2.5, up 3, up 2, up 5. That may be a coincidence, I suppose.

        Like I said, though, I was mostly having a bit of fun at the trend I noticed. No offence meant.

        • chris73 3.3.1.1

          But you you inadvertently pointed something out… :)

        • lprent 3.3.1.2

          Sample is too small to be significiant. You could make just about any significance you like out of something like that size.

          For instance (I haven’t looked) they were probably all between 2 and 4 months apart. Close to an average of 3 months. What is the conspiracy in that?

          NZ First has been steadily rising in all or most of them.

          We seldom have posts on polls other than the Roy Morgan. We seldom look at polls of polls. Are we trying to snub the domestic polling industry?

          It is a ignorant fool who looks for statistically insignificant numbers and formulates a hypothesis around that. Of course that does rather describe most of the political commentators in TV news and borderline hysterics like Cameron Slater – so I guess you are in good company.

          Personally I just refer to them as liars. It is more accurate, and I like accuracy.

          • Disraeli Gladstone 3.3.1.2.1

            I’m genuinely confounded you’re taking this much exception to a silly little comment of mine. But okay, whatever you say.

            • lprent 3.3.1.2.1.1

              You might not understand it – probably because you haven’t exercised your head to think it through. But always assume that if I point it out as a behavioural issue on this site then there is a specific reason behind it and you should follow it rather than argue or make stupid condescending remarks. You should also go and read the policy where it is pointed out quite clearly.

              If a comment is directed at the site, then as far as I am concerned it is directed at me. This prevents idiots doing the silly and rather gutless conflict avoidance by going off about “The Standand” as if it was a person rather than a computer. It isn’t like computers think much or have opinions of their own.

              Since I started (about 6 years ago) being really sarcastic and banning people for asserting that “I/The Standard” “did” certain things there has been a distinct improvement in the precision with which people address particular issues.

              That is because in my sysop role I’m deliberately a nasty vindictive mean old man with abuse of power issues, whose only redeeming quality is that he is too lazy to be bothered exercising those traits, but who often and almost randomly goes totally over the top when roused.

              The reason for being like that (apart from some natural inclinations towards all of those traits) is because it makes people very wary about raising the ogre. Those who are aware of that role tend to stay well away from the behavioural edges unless they really really mean it and have a good argument that I might accept. In other words it is a good example of operant conditioning. Those who are not observant enough tend to find out the hard way that it pays to find out how a site operates before finding a site’s ogres. Which generally improves behaviour on the net.

              But I find that dumping on the minor behavioural offenses here early is a lot easier than dealing with someone going completely apeshit later on.

              But I think I’ve expended enough time pointing out the bleeding obvious… Time to flip this into a sysop mode?

            • Bob 3.3.1.2.1.2

              Don’t take it personally Disraeli, lprent just doesn’t like any comment that could lead to the perception of bloggers at The Standard pushing Labour propaganda. Your initial post gave an inkling of that perception so it had to be shut down to a level that you would think twice about saying anything along these lines again.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Not doing a very good job of it then is he? Individuals here often comment on, link to and discuss Labour policy, some of them even oppose it. You would call that “propaganda” naturally, and that’s just your hostility raising its ugly giant amygdala.

                What Lprent hates is people discussing “The Standard” as though it has a mind of its own. I should probably stop discussing you for the same reason.

          • Pete George 3.3.1.2.2

            “NZ First has been steadily rising in all or most of them.”

            I don’t know where you see that.

            This year Roy Morgan NZ First: 4.0 4.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 5.5 6.0
            Last year they ranged from 3 (several times) to 6.5 (August).
            They began (April) 2012 at 6.5, peaking October at 7.5 that year.

            A rising trend isn’t apparent in the charts:
            http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2014/May/5576-NZ-National-Voting-Intention.pdf

            • lprent 3.3.1.2.2.1

              I was referring to the posts done here from RM.

              If you run a trend line through the noise of the NZF results, you’ll find that there has been a slight overall trend in the last 12 months for their support to climb. I know, I did it last night.

              That means that statistically there is a moderate probability of any 4 data points during that period showing all 4 ascending, a high probability of 3/4 rising, and low probabilities on the other two data points.

              If you looked at the permutations and combinations probabilities, then of course you can get anything at some probability level.

              But jumping from a particular small sample and assigning a causality to it just indicates a fool is trying to think without considering the alternate explanations. It could just be a simple low probability coincidence.

              That is why in statistics relying on small samples have really really low confidence levels of actually reflecting reality.

              Which was the point that I was demonstrating.

              • Lanthanide

                Personally I don’t think it’s a coincidence that authors tend to write about RM poll when the results are good for Labour / the left.

                • lprent

                  I don’t particularly either – although I have seen posts written by authors when the RM polls were on a downward slide for Labour/Greens.

                  I also don’t think that it is a coincidence that authors write about the RM poll on a pretty regular schedule that is around 3 months.

                  I also don’t think that it is a coincidence that authors virtually ignore the other public polls.

                  I’m sure if I thought for more than a few seconds that I could think of about 5 or 6 more “coincidences”, like the way we focus a lot on MMP balances or NZF.

                  What I was arguing about was some fool(s) arguing that a particular single reason was the sole reason for the posts. Then attributing a site editorial policy to it that is outside our stated purposes. It is a damn good way to get me to ban them.

                  It was a nice warning. Next time it probably won’t be.

  4. veutoviper 4

    This poll period would also have covered Shane Jones’ announcement of his departure from Labour and (possible) job as an ‘ambassador’ for McCully. So this would not seem to have had a negative impact on Labour as was touted/hoped for by some Nat supporters.

    Cannot remember the exact date – April 25?

    • mickysavage 4.1

      April 22 Veuto was the date he announced his resignation so it would have been relevant, presuming that it had an effect.

      • veutoviper 4.1.1

        Thanks, MS. The date would have annoyed me all night! But it doesn’t appear to have had much effect, although it is difficult to tell with the almost daily dose of things coming from out of left field.

      • Tania 4.1.2

        Wow now this is interesting now that it is during the Shane Jones period. It seems to have proved that he did not make that much of an impact or that it may have improved Labour in the poll. I am happy Shane Jones is gone as I think that he is a loose cannon and cannot be predicted in the things that he says.

        • Tracey 4.1.2.1

          he was in the wrong party for a long time. being in the employ of a national led government is way more fitting.

          • Tania 4.1.2.1.1

            True to that Tracey and National solved that problem for us lol instead of a split from Labour which would have been more damaging.

    • Naturesong 4.2

      Weirdly, my take on Shane Jones leaving was a negative for National (I do know that my opinion runs counter to every newspaper and news show in the country)

      McCully happy to abuse his position as a minister to bribe another politition (what an awesome player of the game politic is he – who cares that they’re there to govern for the good of the New Zealand people)

      The fact that Jones took the money (and his behaviour previous) shows everyone what he was all about.
      Labour was well to be rid of him before the election.

      Everytime I think about Jones, I just shake my head. So much promise, so much talent, he could have been a real force advocating for the north. It’s a real shame he only cared about himself (or wasn’t bright enough to understand that community and family are what really matters).

      • miravox 4.2.1

        Yea, Naturesong. The MSM got the spin on Jones leaving completely wrong. They said Jones leaving was a disaster and Labour handled it badly. It seems the public may not have seen it as a disaster at all, and Labour handled it well.

        It’s easy to see Jones leaving as tidying up old business, allowing a more consistent message to develop, and stabilising the party, imo.

        • karol 4.2.1.1

          Yes. And I’ve also thought that Key’s barbs in the House, at Labour re-Shane Jones are misguided – own goal.

          • phillip ure 4.2.1.1.1

            ..@ karol..+ 1..

            .yeah..i noticed that..

            ..a surprising example of cloth/tin-ear from key…

            ..keep it up john..!

            ..keep reminding everyone what a sellout/traitor/self-interested jerk jones was..

            ..this is good..

        • Naturesong 4.2.1.2

          Just need for Mallard to keep his shit together now.

          Getting himself kicked out of question time over an irrelevancy and distracting from Grant Robertsons questions the other day did his party no favours.

          He’s a bit like Collins in that respect, ruled by his reptile brain, he just can’t seem to help himself.

          • Tracey 4.2.1.2.1

            he doesnt know when hes ahead so he doesnt know when to stop.

          • Mike S 4.2.1.2.2

            “Getting himself kicked out of question time over an irrelevancy and distracting from Grant Robertsons questions the other day did his party no favours.”

            I’m not so sure. Even though I’m not a fan of Mallard, sometimes this sort of thing can subconsciously portray the disciplined MP as sort of the underdog getting kicked out by the National Party biased speaker; and everybody loves the underdog rebelling against the authorities.Also, what most people will subconsciously remember is the 500k Collins received from Orivita, whether she did or not.

  5. Expect the following responses from Dear Leader;

    A release of yet another bene-bashing policy,
    Collins to resign for “health” reasons,
    Polls to worsen and the Nats to drop to 40-42%
    Nats will steal one of Labour’s key policies; adapt it; and adopt it.

    And watch Cameron Slater’s blog get even nastier (if that’s at all possible).

    • mickysavage 5.1

      Agreed Frank. My first thought was that Key was going to have to work out if it is more electorally beneficial to throw Collins under a bus or not. And it is a strange world where Paula Bennett becomes indispensable.

      National are looking really tired. Labour had this look about it in 2008, too many mistakes were being made and it lost momentum. National are looking the same.

      • “Tired” – I think that fits the situation nicely, mickysavage. It reminds me of the Nats in the late 1990s, especially under Shipley. It was much, much worse for them at the time and the NZF-Nat government was under siege almost continuously in the last couple of years of it’s administration.

        The Nats are starting to have that “caught in the glare of headlights”/siege look about them…

        I just pray to the political gods; please don’t let a Labour/Green MP f**k it up…

        • Tracey 5.1.1.1

          i thought that too karol. just reminded people how duplicitous jones and national are. in it for themselves.

      • Bearded Git 5.1.2

        “…it is a strange world where Paula Bennett becomes indispensable.”

        Great line Micky.

      • phillip ure 5.1.3

        “..And it is a strange world where Paula Bennett becomes indispensable..”

        i have been chuckling at bennett always standing behind collins..

        ..in media appearances..

        ..collins clearly doesn’t know about the shiv bennett is packing..

        ..that shiv with collins’ name on it..

        ..and that isn’t a comforting-arm around collins..

        ..it’s just bennett scoping the best place to slide that shiv in…

        • Tracey 5.1.3.1

          her cabinet club response sums she and her leader up… couldnt remember if its a secret or not, thought what her leader would do, and defaulted to lie.

          • phillip ure 5.1.3.1.1

            heh..!..yeah..that was funny/telling…

            ..and tolley..

            ..but my recent favourite polly-screwing-up-gotcha!-interview was that large florid-faced guy from nz first..(‘dick’ someone..?..)

            ..when asked about the cannabis-issue..

            ..his eyes darting around:..’who’se asking..?’

            ..and it went on from there..

            ..for a satisfyingly long length of time..

            ..they kept cutting back to him..for his next evasion/duck/weave..

            ..very funny..!

            ..he actually physically moved in coordination with his protestations of (innocence?)

            ..almost a dancing on the spot..

            ..doing the ‘duck and weave’..?

            • Tracey 5.1.3.1.1.1

              lolololol

              i thought i saw bennetts career flashing before her eyes…

    • Clemgeopin 5.2

      My quick estimate/calculation for the coming polls for National will be 39%, Labour 33% and Greens around 14%.

      The Labour’s excellent monetary policy and the National’s dodgy donation misdeeds have had an effect on the Morgan poll, in my opinion.

  6. Ad 6

    Will feel more comfortable when Labour+Greens is consistently higher than National+NZFirst.

    • weka 6.1

      +1

      Need to keep on with the message that if you want a left-wing govt then don’t party vote NZF.

      • Sacha 6.1.1

        want a progressive govt, vote Green.
        want a tory one then Winston or Nats will do it.
        other flavours, you’re kidding yourself this time around.

    • McFlock 6.2

      yeah – the trends are the thing

  7. blue leopard 7

    I think that perhaps Mr Jones resignation has helped the left here (sorry Jones.) Jones anti-green comments were confusing and were muddying the vision of a government-in-waiting that would work well together. I think it was a good call of Jones to leave. Good on you Jones.

    Well done Opposition parties – keep up the good work.

  8. veutoviper 8

    WOW. Audrey Young already has an article up on the Herald site on the RM poll results titled “National takes a 6 point dive “. Dated 5.00am Thurs 8 May.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11251353

    Granny rarely reports Roy Morgan results, but this is really quick for them although Audrey Young has been in overdrive in the last week in the number of Williamson and Collins articles she has been pushing out.

    AND Stuff also has a short one by Vernon Small..

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10020766/National-slumps-in-Roy-Morgan-poll

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      It seems likely that some of National’s internal polling over the last 1-2 months has been telling them similar – hence much heightened pressure and internal stresses within their caucus and party currently.

    • tc 8.2

      Audreys name may be on the column but the content is probably coming from a mix of the usual sources to keep those memes humming along.

    • Paul 8.3

      Fairfax Media would have had it as headline news if Labour had dropped 6 points.
      Corrupt corporate media.
      http://www.pmc.aut.ac.nz/pacific-media-watch/region-new-zealand-media-incapable-serving-society-says-author-8597

    • All either reports ‘analyse’ is a one poll movement which means little without looking at trends and fluctuations over time.

      • Clemgeopin 8.4.1

        Looking at the trends and fluctuations of ACT, UF and Cons over time is quite amusing.

        • Pete George 8.4.1.1

          You can’t read much into the ACT and UF fluctuations apart from them being very small. Roy Morgan rounds to the nearest 0.5% so when parties are fluctuating in the 0-1 zone the trends are difficult to determine.

          This poll was of a sample of 847. That’s about eight and a half people for 1%. Two people register as zero on their results. Two respondents results in a 0% result, three will get 0.5%.

          On top of that there’s a margin of error. With this few respondents the results are going to be only vaguely reliable.

          • felix 8.4.1.1.1

            Seems accurate enough though.

            Dunnited Future Election 2008 result: 0.9%
            Dunnited Future Election 2011 result: 0.6%

            As I recall (and this is a fact-checking job even you should be able to manage) most of the polls have had DF between 0% and 1% for most of the past 6 years.

            • Clemgeopin 8.4.1.1.1.1

              For any new party or existing party, there should be no tax payer paid free TV time or electioneering funding available until they cross the 5% threshold on their own steam at an election. If they do cross, only then they should qualify for the privilege of tax payer funds for the next election. Just having 500 members is too low a bar. Nor should their ‘leader’ get special status, recognition or extra funding for being a ‘leader’ of a non 5% threshold party. What do you think? If this rule is brought about, for this election, the parties that would not get tax payer funds would be ACT, UF, CONS, Maori party, Mana and Internet party. NZF would also not have got such funds in 2011 election. Any leader of such parties that wins an electorate seat without the 5% threshold should be simply treated as an independent as regards the tax payer funds. That is my opinion. What do you think?

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Politics is already a rich man’s game and you want to make it worse?

              • Pascal's bookie

                “For any new party or existing party, there should be no tax payer paid free TV time or electioneering funding available until they cross the 5% threshold on their own steam at an election.”

                nah. the ACT ones are hilarious, and good for the left.

            • swordfish 8.4.1.1.1.2

              Yep, Felix, usually 0.5% for the Toupee in polls since the last election. Highest: 1% / Lowest 0%. Probably averaging about 0.4%.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.5

      Veuto, I think the media have decided noticed it’s time to change the government.

    • Bearded Git 8.6

      Audrey doesn’t mention the Conservatives plummet to 0.5%.

    • ianmac 8.7

      Used your link to Audrey’s report Veuto. Thanks.
      But try and find it without the link and her report is well and truly buried. Very buried!

    • Bearded Git 8.8

      Small doesn’t mention Shane Jones, supposedly a disastrous moment for Labour. Instead he calls Lab’s result “only 31%”; err this is MMP.

      Neither does he comment on the Conservatives terrible 0.5%. Colon Crayfish is supposedly the best hope of a credible coalition partner for the Nats. It’s all going pear-shaped.

  9. Skinny 9

    Just catching up on Oral Question Time, Key is looking worn out, and his National bench a rather sorry sight. They know very well their bleeding support over donation scandals. Most people can not believe Collins hasn’t been stood down. Even Key’s own caucus appeared to be annoyed when their Leader rambled on in glowing support of Collins.

    Really getting the impression we are witnessing a return to the historic imploding within the National Party. The knives will turn on John Key within as soon as he starts sliding as preferred leader.

  10. Pete 10

    I’ll be interested to see the polls after the budget. So far the government isn’t signaling anything likely to rock the voters’ world.

    • Tracey 10.1

      when does it go to the printer and what lolly scramble can they afford without losing face? or will it be more bene bashing and slashing…

      watch them ramp up on law and order. they will be pressing all the hot buttons from now.

      • Will@Welly 10.1.1

        Well they obviously thought the $3,000 grant to beneficiaries was the start of the lolly scramble, then totally mis-read the state of accommodation in Christchurch. $3,000, as one beneficiary said, half of it is gone on the bond, so you’re no better off. Granny Herald is calling it a “game-changer”.

  11. dave 11

    polls are moveing tibe has been moveing for a while againist the government nice steady errosion of support thats all we need

  12. Sanctuary 12

    An interesting aspect of the Nat’s 6% drop is it went more or less equally to Labour and the Greens. In other words, there are soft National voters who would rather vote Green than Labour. I would be curious to understand the thinking behind that. On the face of it, going from neo-liberal right wing to conservationist defies conventional thought. Or is that anything over 6% for the Greens is and always will be just a refuge for middle class protest votes?

    • karol 12.1

      Sorry, I don’t get your reasoning. 6% of Nats vote (arguably) went to Labour and the Greens – so it’s the Greens who have attracted the soft Nat votes?

      And, you don’t know where the votes actually shifted. It could have been mostly to Labour with a lot of Labour votes shifting to the Greens.

      • Sanctuary 12.1.1

        Occam’s razor fails your comment.

        The simplest interpretation is National has shed 6% support to the opposition parties, not that Labour has lost 3% to the Greens but picked up 5.5% from National.

        That indicates to me that a significant factor in the rise of Green support is protest voting middle class “soft Nats”.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1.1.1

          The simplest interpretation is that the non vote has increased at National’s Oravida’s expense thereby shifting the percentages of the other groups.

        • Tracey 12.1.1.2

          you are assuming those who vote always do so rationally. the right pride themselve on their rationality but two ofmy national voting family are considering the greens. i try not to get into political conversations with them. at a party last week one was indignant about mw treating “him” like an idiot with his excuses… wont vote labour cos they are “anti hard workers” so he said

          “i might as well vote for the environment “

      • Mike S 12.1.2

        +1 Karol

        In my opinion the scenario you mentioned (Nat lose votes to Labour, Labour loses votes to Greens) is more likely what happened. Possibly people unhappy that Labour declined a pre-election coalition deal with the Greens changing from Labour to Greens and so on.

    • “On the face of it, going from neo-liberal right wing to conservationist defies conventional thought.”

      Maybe if you see politics in black and white. Most voters are shades of grey. What it shows is there is a sizable number of voters who can swing wither way, and most of them probably haven’t heard of ‘neo-liberal’ let alone know what it means and they probably think ‘conservationist’ sounds Green.

      What do you see as “conventional thought”?

      I think karol is right, support is more likely to shuffle across rather than lurch from one extreme to another.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.3

      Sanctuary, you’re assuming that all those who decided not to vote National switched to another party rather than switched off.

      The non-vote will be blue come September. People who cannot stand the idea of a Labour/Green government will still feel unable to vote for the Oravida Party.

      • Sanctuary 12.3.1

        That is true. I wonder what the undecided/not voting number is?

        • Pete George 12.3.1.1

          “Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.”

          • Mike S 12.3.1.1.1

            Probably because they couldn’t.

            National Party supporters and right wing types are unlikely to not name a party, it’s an ego thing.

  13. George 13

    The Government Confidence Rating is still rather high, much higher than at previous points. That represents soft N/L/G territory in the middle. People can think things are going right but still vote out a government by default.

    I think we’re going to win this, but we’ll have to play it right.

  14. philj 14

    xox
    What is JK’s ‘rock star’ rating again?

    • You_Fool 14.1

      “O” for awesome actually… or Orivida I am not sure, I get it all confused….

  15. Chooky 15

    Bomber Bradbury’s comments on the latest Polls

    ‘What the latest Roy Morgan Poll means – Could MANA/Internet Party be the difference? ‘

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/08/what-the-latest-roy-morgan-poll-means-could-manainternet-party-be-the-difference/

  16. bad12 16

    Should there be a Mana/Internet alliance in the coming months this poll would suggest that may well be the difference between a left or right Government as the result of the September election,

    Mana have kept the half percent gain it made during the initial furore over the proposed alliance and the Internet Party has climbed to 1.5%,

    In the latest Roy Morgan this has not seemed to hurt the Labour/Green vote at all, its still a knife edge election according to Roy and a 1–2% gain of support anywhere across the left bloc, Labour/Green/Mana/Internet would be enough to topple National in September…

  17. Puckish Rogue 17

    I love it, a roy morgan poll comes out with a drop to National and suddenly the elections all but over :)

    • ianmac 17.1

      I say Puckish old chap. What do you think is significant about this poll? Interested in your ability to counter spin old bean.
      Well?

      • Puckish Rogue 17.1.1

        In the scheme of things theres nothing significant about this poll, if however the next couple of polls from Roy Morgan show a decline in National and is backed up by other polls showing the same thing then I’ll concede its not looking good for National

        Until that happens this is just another poll

    • Tracey 17.2

      do youactually read the posts, or just one that suits your viewpoint then quickly type something inane?

    • Paul 17.3

      Hit and run comment
      pr’s speciality.

  18. jh 18

    National reaffirms pro-immigration stance
    May 5th, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

    Labour joining NZ First as anti-immigration may not go down well with, well, immigrants
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/05/national_reaffirms_pro-immigration_stance.html
    National and Labour have been Tweedleodum and (an irrelovant) Tweedle Dee up untill now thanks to

    “Both in New Zealand and globally, the best of the leftwing tradition has always rejected small-minded nationalism, xenophobia and racism. In fact, leftists of an internationalist tradition have always favoured globalization and getting rid of national borders and barriers to migration. Progressive advocates of globalization of course do not defend a handful of rich imperialist countries, including New Zealand, dominating the world’s economy, but instead advocate an integrated and radically egalitarian world economy where production is based on social need and not on private profit. ”

    http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2012/02/guest-blog-post-john-moore-leftwing-xenophobia-in-new-zealand.html
    This is the age of globalisation and of a “J” shaped curve in human population.

    • Tracey 18.1

      wrong thread. maybe take it to open mike.

    • Naturesong 18.2

      Good spin.

      National happy to sell the country lock stock and barrel, pricing out the people who actually live and earn money here.

      Labour finally coming around to the realisation that open immigration as an economic policy plank does the country no favours.

      I’m glad Labour are looking at immigration policy, and wanting to ensure that businesses in New Zealand look to hire and train here rather than bring in cheap labour from overseas (avoiding training costs for mid-level jobs, or simply undercutting local pay rates and conditions as we are seeing on more dairy farms these days).

      During my last couple of years at school I remember a significant number of students leaving during the 5th and 6th form to start apprenticeships – in particular, a couple of friends who were hired by telecom to train as electrical engineers.
      Now, instead of training school leavers, they import ready trained ones from overseas (Philippines appears to be current country of choice).

      It’s not xenophobia to understand that following an employment strategy that ensures our young people will not be trained or employed because major employer/s in New Zealand want to save a buck is to the detriment of New Zealand (increased unemployment, precarious employment, lower wages, and higher unemployment related costs).

      If you are in business in New Zealand, you should be required to hire and train here if at all possible, and only look overseas if you cannot find the talent here, not just because your accountant says you might save $5k annually per FTE.

      • Will@Welly 18.2.1

        Bringing skilled workers from overseas is always the easy option. When National was elected in 2008, many waited for them to roll out a proper jobs package, given all the noise they had made. Nothing. We’ve seen our apprentice scheme decimated. Training gives youth a sense of purpose, and builds a sense of community – just look at all those towns destroyed by the closures over the years.
        Its easy to sit in Parliament and rule, to be a confidence trickster, a swindler, a liar, a person who doesn’t give a damn, but that’s not we elect our representatives for.
        And why is it, under this Government, virtually every senior appointment has been from someone overseas, like there is no one here talented enough. Talent2, anyone?

  19. fisiani 19

    On these poll figures and the inevitable trend in polling against the government then The Cunliffe will be triumphant in September. Russel Norman will be the Finance Minister and Hone the Education Minister.

    • fender 19.1

      & you can stay on as bullshit/propaganda production manager…

      edit: until lprent decides otherwise.

      [lprent: He has been pretty good at running below my level of attention to behaviour between the last two or three bans. I rather suspect that he is learning. Admittedly doing it the hard way. ]

    • Will@Welly 19.2

      I think Hone would be flattered to be Minister of Education, but he has got many other portfolios he has interests in as well. Whoever gets the Finance Ministers job, my suggestion is, their first job is to delve into your finances – see whose bank-rolling your “dirty tricks” !!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 19.3

      Comical Fisiani, there’s always a place for you at my cabinet club, Mr. 57% 😉

    • Paul 19.4

      Maybe you’ll emigrate…

    • Bearded Git 19.5

      Hone would do a much better job on education that the current incumbent.

    • Clemgeopin 19.6

      And you will, unfortunately, continue to remain a witnit.

  20. Clare Trevett is claiming other polls are much more grim for Labour.

    Last week…list MPs were doing the numbers as internal polling showed them diving into the low to mid-20s and Cunliffe with stratospherically high negative ratings.

    One poll was reported to have Labour only five or six points ahead of the Greens.

    It was Street who was planning a no-confidence motion against former leader David Shearer last year, news of which prompted his resignation in advance of it. Street wasn’t motivated by any vendetta against Shearer, simply by the awareness Labour could not win on those numbers. Shearer’s polling then was significantly higher than Cunliffe’s.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-political-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502734&objectid=11251362

    Party polling and leaks of their polling won’t be verified but if there’s any truth to this the Roy Morgan poll is only a small part of a bigger worry.

    • bad12 20.1

      Spot the lack of facts in there George???, shit-stirring as usual i would suggest, :roll: :roll: :roll:

    • blue leopard 20.2

      I congratulate Claire Trevett on reaching new heights in garbled nonsense.

      When yapping on about the internal dynamics of Labour she is clearly fudging the timeline of events to maximise the idea that things are conflicted in Labour. I doubt very much that they are. They are working well together and good on them, keep up the good work Labour (and other opposition parties.)

      Perhaps Trevett has missed her calling and should go and find a job in fictional writing? …oh wait! cancel that last sentence! It is clear that she already has found such a job.

      • thatguynz 20.2.1

        Perhaps she could become editor of a fact checking website? 😉 😉

      • Tania 20.2.2

        They know there is no problems in Labour that is why they are trying to turn the table by insinuating it with no proof only suggestions.

        • blue leopard 20.2.2.1

          exactly Tania, this is exactly what they are doing – good point.

  21. ScottGN 21

    Radio NZ reporting that all the partially-privatized power companies getting sold down today in the wake of the Roy Morgan.

  22. karol 22

    ACT Newsletter of 28 April on John Key’s speech to Epsom ACT fundraiser:
    There’s stuff on Key’s addiction to polling, then there’s this

    Shane Jones has not retired but just announced he is retiring. He is giving weeks of retirement interviews, “a Countdown retirement party” and valedictory. Jones is sucking the oxygen out of the opposition’s airtime while making, as John Key observed, much tougher hits on Russell Norman than the PM has managed. Labour made what they thought was important policy announcements last week that the media did not cover, so neither will we.

    Self- inflicted wounds

    John Key’s analysis of Labour’s poor performance is their failure to be on message and self- absorption on issues of interest to Wellington. Issues like Oravida just do not bother voters. The Letter thinks David Cunliffe’s problems are deeper seated and were illustrated on TV3 news last Wednesday when the news of the Shane Jones retirement broke.

  23. Bruce 23

    I’m not concern trolling (I’m a left voter) – would it be beneficial to Labour to poach some of the Green vote (without reducing the Greens below 5%)? The possible result may be the two main rivals polling closer together.
    This sounds FPP I know, but it may lessen a right-wing attack angle against a Labour/Green government.

  24. Notanymore 24

    I am a little confused still…. Are we believing poll results now or are they really worthless ?

    • Clemgeopin 24.1

      You can believe one thing though that the mojo of National and Key has begun its free fall.

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    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Bill that puts the environment into the EPA passes first hurdle
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    2 weeks ago
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    2 weeks ago
  • Minimum Wage Amendment Bill to protect contractors
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    2 weeks ago
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    2 weeks ago
  • Costly flag referendum should be dumped
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    2 weeks ago
  • Nats letting Serco off scot free
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    2 weeks ago

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