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Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges

Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.

So, how are the trends looking?

Roy Morgan’s confidence in government number keeps on falling for National. It’s heading towards where it was for the 5th Labour government in the dying days of its third term.

The gap between National and ACT v Labour and Green is gradually narrowing. It’s at 12% this time, which means if 6% of people change their minds, we have a change of government. It was consistently under 10% late last year, so things haven’t really improved in the last half year or so for the Left, on the other hand, it’s a lot better than the days when the gap was over 20%.

National’s back under 50% at 49%, and only 3% or 4% from that danger zone where they would need ACT and the Maori Party to support them on every piece of their agenda to get anything done (is this why National is cooking something up with the Maori Party about special deals for iwi in asset sales?) .

The message remains that the Left can win this thing. It’s up to Labour and the Greens to turn the dissatisfcation with the government into votes. Labour’s laying out of a credible economic policy that the commentators are praising is a big part of that – they could never hope to win without that ticking that box.

Now, they sell their winning messages – we can have a fair, sustainable future, where we own our future, and everyone is better off, or we can have more of the failed economic mismanagement of National and asset sales.

110 comments on “Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges”

  1. Vinsin 1

    Not surprisingly really when you consider the first poll was before Labour’s CGT was rolled out in full. The “own the future” branding is incredibly well done too.

    • ChrisH 1.1

      Heck yes, Labour’s looking like a “real” Labour party again. Never thought I’d live to see the day.

  2. r0b 2

    Good news, at a good time.

  3. Anne 3

    The Roy Morgan was conducted between June 27 and July 10 – also before Labour’s CGT was rolled out in full.

  4. lprent 4

    Rather boring listening to the idiots raving on polls- guyon comes to mind. As you say eddie, at present Labour has clawed back to where they were last election. National is slightly better off. Nationals two support parties are trashed in terms of getting seats. I think Act will just die in Epsom, and the Maori party looks good to lose electorate seats. UF – who knows if he will get that seat again…

    The government at the election is literally looking too tight to call. It depends on what happens over the next 4 months. It is literally any of the main parties election to lose.

    • Policy Parrot 4.1

      I’ll be interested to see the next Horizon Poll.

    • This explains the shenanagins in Epsom.  National know they will not get a majority.  Support parties are going to be vital.  National will be hoping to get over the mark with ACT alone because a Nat-ACT-MP coalition is going to be really unstable, and this presumes MP has more than one left after the election.

      Labour needs to break thought the 37% mark though reasonably soon.  If this happens then it is game on … 

      • lprent 4.2.1

        Yep… I think that the CGT has good chance of pushing them there (over 37%) as it sinks in….

        • Bored 4.2.1.1

          Be very wary, one swallow doth not a summer make…..

          More importantly the polls are basically crap, the trick to winning in November is to mobilise South and West Auckland to vote, repeat mobilise South and West Auckland to vote!!!!!!!!!

          • Puddleglum 4.2.1.1.1

            And east Christchurch. God knows how that gets done. A lot of ‘east Christchurch’ is no longer in east Christchurch.

          • George D 4.2.1.1.2

            Can’t say that enough. Only one poll that counts, and unlike these ones it’s self-selecting. Gotta get out the numbers.

      • Blue 4.2.2

        I posted this link in Open Mike too – it’s not just the Epsom electorate that National and Act are gaming. The Nats know they need every seat they can get, and they’re trying to make sure they do get their majority or damn close to it.

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10739621

        • interesting 4.2.2.1

          MMP in action isnt it???

          • felix 4.2.2.1.1

            No, the reciprocal stepping aside works exactly the same way under FPP.

            Lemme guess, you think Hone is an example of the type of MP we get with MMP too, dontcha?

            • interesting 4.2.2.1.1.1

              NO…. he got in due to winning his electorate seat….. and good on him for winning it.

              • felix

                Very good.

                Now what did you mean by “MMP in action”?

                • Chris

                  In FPP you would only get 1 seat for winning Epsom, however under MMP depending on the vote Act can get more seats (say 3) just by winning that 1 seat. If it was FPP then ACT would only get 1 seat and there would be no incentive to keep them there instead of just having a National candidate. I assume that was what was meant by MMP in action.

                  Feel free to correct me if I am wrong about FPP I never actually voted in an election with it (too young) so am a bit hazy about the details.

                  • Under FPP it would be possible for mutual benefit to accrue by reciprocally ‘stepping aside’.

                    For example, under FPP a minor party may have a real chance in only one electorate seat but can be a ‘spoiler’ in several others. By the major party stepping aside in that one seat (and giving the minor party ‘its’ seat) the major party, in turn, has a better chance of gaining or holding marginal seats elsewhere when the minor party steps aside in those seats. That is, the stepping aside can give a party more than just one seat towards forming a government in return for giving up one seat.

                    In that sense, it’s the same as MMP. 

                  • felix

                    That aspect is peculiar to MMP, and not one I am personally in favour of. I don’t like having a 5% threshold and I don’t like the “win an electorate seat, bring your mates” rule which ignores the threshold.

                    (I’d prefer to see the threshold simply being the approximate percentage of the overall vote needed to win an electorate seat, which from memory is around 0.8%. i.e. you win an electorate, you get a seat. You win the equivalent amount of party votes, you get a seat.)

                    However, the scenario described above by Blue – and replied to by interesting – has nothing to do with bringing in extra MPs, it’s simply about ACT stepping aside in marginal seats to avoid splitting the overall right-wing vote.

                    This scenario is the same under MMP or FPP.

                    The only difference, I suppose, is that in this particular example under FPP National wouldn’t be giving Epsom to ACT in the first place, so ACT would have no need to reciprocate.

                    This doesn’t however mean that reciprocal arrangements aren’t any use under FPP, just that this particular one wouldn’t be.

                    edit: Pg is too quick, not unusually.

                    • Chris

                      Sweet that makes sense. I got the wrong end of the stick there a bit, which is also what I assume ‘interesting’ did

        • Deadly_NZ 4.2.2.2

          Maybe Labour should have a major push in Epsom as it seems the good people of Epsom are somewhat pissed at NACT for using them as pawns, and only looking out for themselves, What with CGT and a good Labour candidate really put the shits up the evil NACTM party.

          • Secret Squirrel 4.2.2.2.1

            The ODT has confirmed that David Parker is standing in Epsom, but that “he is not expected to threaten Act New Zealand’s John Banks”.

            That’s a standard sort of MSM assumption that tends to suppress discussion and possibilities of properly democratic “best person for electorate” coverage.

        • Puddleglum 4.2.2.3

          would it make sense, for instance, to lose the seat of New Plymouth to Andrew Little, a future leader of the Labour party, likely to be the leader of the Labour Party post the election, to lose that seat held by Jonathan Young because we put up an Act candidate?

          This from John Banks, making it very clear that ACT is not an independent party but simply a tactical off-shoot of National. For goodness’ sake, “would it make sense … to lose that seat held by Jonathan Young“. How can ACT lose a seat it doesn’t hold?

          Is there a clearer way of saying that John Banks is not concerned about furthering the support for ACT but simply about furthering the support for National? Why on earth would ACT party members countenance this? (Unless none of them are members because of the principles the party supposedly upholds.)

    • Jason 4.3

      Any indications thus far as to how the sheep of Epsom will vote?
      No doubt the cretinous Banks will hold some appeal to this laughable constituency.
      They are as far removed from reality as they are from the unfortunate 44 Hillside workers facing redundancy.

      • lprent 4.3.1

        The problem for them is that Act are restricted to about 49% of the electorate. It is really hard to find a woman who is considering voting for Act. John Banks doesn’t seem likely to change that. Their best bet is to make sure that women don’t vote.

  5. felix 5

    Keep calm and carry on.

  6. Billy Fish 6

    It’s all labours fault!!!! Them and the feminazis, greeny weridos and other sorted lot!!!!!
    Its them thats causing Global Warming!
    Global Warming?!? Its colder now than ever before, don’t talk to me about global warming!!
    Just a con to part right thinking people from their money !
    Them woman and thier monthly sick times, thats the cause of it, them and the maorification of NZ, dammit its like a bloke can’t put on a white hood and burn a cross without some lefty pinko cry baby political correctness gone madite sacking Paul Henry over it.
    Thats it! I’m moving to the 19th Century

    • Bored 6.1

      Ah the bliss of the golden age of laissez faire……….

    • Jason 6.2

      Careful Billy Fish. That sort of talk will see you drafted into the Act party.
      Oh wait – re-reading what you said – you’re far too liberal for their tastes.
      Phew!

    • mik e 6.3

      Just keep voting Nact and you,ll get there sooner than later BF

  7. gobsmacked 7

    The point about polls in an election campaign (which we’re now well and truly in) is not the details (ignored by 99% of voters) but the perception – the media battleground.

    On Sunday night the Colmar Brunton poll was bad for Labour (but good for the Greens), and it got maximum coverage. Not just because of media “bias”, but because it was commissoned by TV news, and that always means it’s a lead story, and then picked up by other media.

    The poll tonight is much better for Labour, and good for the opposition overall. But it’s not on the TV news. So now it’s up to Labour to MAKE this a news story. Otherwise, the Sunday night poll remains the story – the perception.

    And here’s the problem. In the propaganda war, Labour are too bloody slow, and ineffectual.

    The poll came out tonight, only an hour or so ago, and already there are posts on the Standard, Whale Oil, Imperator Fish, maybe other blogs I haven’t seen.

    But when will Labour pick it up? Where is their media presence? Will it be some flimsy press release tomorrow afternoon? Will Red Alert get there after everyone else has?

    An election is war. Non-stop. Nobody sleeps. Ever. If amateur bloggers have noticed a new poll, and already commented on it within minutes, why hasn’t the Official Opposition? I have a crappy old computer, Google and dial-up. What have they got?

    I don’t want to be told that people are working hard (don’t we all). I want to see Labour people in all the media, all the time, day and night, 24/7. So often they are the LAST. Slater and Farrar kick Mallard’s arse. So does No Right Turn and a bunch of others.

    I worked in election campaigns in the UK, back in the dark ages, before the internet and Twitter and all. You worked until you dropped dead, or until the polls closed on election day – whichever came first. You worked with a hunger, energy, focus, and a f**cking gun to your head. Why? Because the other parties were doing it too. And we wanted to WIN.

    I want to believe that Labour want to win in 2011. But mostly I see a horse and cart lumbering along in the space age. It makes me weep.

    If this poll is not hammered home all day tomorrow by every Labour spokesperson at every opportunity in every media outlet … well, then they deserve to lose.

    (Rant finally over!)

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      I made sure a few LAB types knew about this poll within an hour of its appearing…I’m just one wee footsoldier but I can throw a grenade and use a bayonet… :)

      • gobsmacked 7.1.1

        Good on ya, CV. “Lions led by donkeys” springs to mind …

        While I was thumping my keyboard for the comment above, a new post was added to Red Alert, on the latest results …

        Unfortunately, not the results of the Morgan poll. It’s about a rugby match.

        http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2011/07/20/breaking-the-eden-park-hoodoo/

        I rest my case.

        • seeker 7.1.1.1

          While you were fuelling the right wing scoffometers gs, Clare Curran commented a PS after the rugby post you mentioned that labour would be releasing new policy tomorrow. They are really setting the pace and not worrying about getting bogged down with polls but in getting NZ out of the bog we are currently stuck in. Get with it Gobsmacked.
          PS David Cunliffe did a great rebuttal on “Cute Joyces $18.5b misinformation tactic, and said they would keep this attack up on national’s misinformation ‘spin’ machine.(herald monday or tuesday I think; sorry bit late and head dozing off).

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1

            Yep. Policy distance between Labour and National is going to get wider and wider from here on in.

            Labour’s plans focus on the next 10-20 years. National’s plans, such as they are, run out on Nov 26.

            New Zealanders will have a very clear choice ahead of them.

            • AAMC 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Gobsmacked is right. I read a great op Ed in the guardian last year on the Right Wings mastery of the emotive argument. They are much more prepared to lie to us, fuel our prejudices, appeal to our emotions. We all know this and Act is currently proven it.
              The Left however (and I’m guilty of it myself), have a seemingly unwavering belief, that if we can just get the detail out, point out the statistics, consult academia, people will have to see the reason in our argument.
              The majority, as is proven by Mr Smile and Wave don’t want to engage in those details, and so we have to stop counting on the reason o the detail and get in the trenches with Gobsmacket.

              • seanmaitland

                Lol – sorry, but your belief may hold true for you and a few of your mates – but it certainly doesn’t represent Labour supporters in general – just witness the millions of cries of “greedy rich pricks” over the last decade and the complete piss-take that Labour does when they roll out known Labour party members to the press to claim that their families cannot afford fruit and vegies under a National government.

                What about the assault on Farmers recently using tax paid figures from the worst farming year in recent history and comparing it to their revenues and income from one of the best in recent history? Thats dubious at best. A total misrepresentation and straight-out lying at worst.

              • Colonial Viper

                +1

                The Right Wing and their Marketing execs get that peoples emotive brains are way stronger than their rational brains.

                Engage the heart before you do anything else.

  8. Reality Bytes 8

    A good noteworthy response to Labour’s CGT proposition’s.

  9. Sanctuary 9

    There has to be some concern at the polling companies themselves at these different figures, since the differences are outside the comfortable margins of error.

  10. NickC 10

    Its hilarious that almost every poll you report on sees the left gaining ground, but they never seem to gain any real ground overall…

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      That’s actually a very true observation.

    • ropata 10.2

      Do the numbers 2005, 2002, 1999 mean anything to you?

      • burt 10.2.1

        Yes they do actually, all those years were retrospectively validated for illegal election spending under urgency outside of the normal budget cycle.

        • mik e 10.2.1.1

          I see the bretheren are breaking their own ban on the use of technology again re Burt

          • burt 10.2.1.1.1

            I think ropata might be onto something actually. The police are currently evaluating if they should prosecute Labour for a reported breach of electoral funding laws and their popularity has gone up in the Morgan poll. ropata rightly points to 2005 which having been defended by saying – it’s how we always did it and the ref changed the rules; tells us 2002 & 1999 were also illegal advertising years.

            So ropata seems to have made (or stumbled across) the connection – when Labour break the law with election advertising they poll better.

    • Eddie 10.3

      The TVNZ poll was reported here too.

      • Lanthanide 10.3.1

        But your last post on polls conspicuously ignored the Roy Morgan, which was down for Labour. If anything this poll is just a bounce back up to where they should be.

    • Kaplan 10.4

      It’s hilarious that National really believed the self created myth they could just coast* in to the election AND claim an outright majority.

      As soon as the Labour started really putting the hard word on them for a plan National have been shown to be severely wanting. If the MSM and in turn NZers really start asking the hard questions and having some real expectations of their government then National will be gone come November. You can bank on that.

      *Actually it’s not like they really ever had their foot to anything other than a bike on a imaginary cycle way anyway so coasting was probably a little ambitious for them.

  11. alex 11

    Its not on stuff.co.nz yet. My bet is that it won’t be, I think Farrar organises their poll coverage.

  12. higherstandard 12

    All pollsters should be tied to a stake in the hippo enclosure the morning after all hippos have had a evening treat with gallons of guinness and vegetarian vindaloo.

  13. “I’m moving to the 19th Century”

    Funny line.

    It’s tortoise and hare. Hare’s not asleep, but hypnotized by it’s own sleek gorgeousness.
    Tortoise has reserves and has paced itself perfectly.

  14. gobsmacked 14

    Radio Live, 8.20 a.m.

    Marcus Lush asks Shane Jones about the polls. A great opening to push last night’s Morgan poll. To reverse the narrative that took hold on Sunday.

    And Jones says nothing. He blathers on about something else entirely.

    You cannot blame the MSM when they give you a free hit and you then ignore them.

    I don’t ask for miracles. Just competence.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      You’re making me cry

    • DavidW 14.2

      Gobsmacked: The logical conclusion to draw from that would be that you are looking in the wrong place for competence.

      The definition of futility goes something like – doing the same thing time after time and each time expecting a different outcome.

      Brick walls and foreheads are not compatable.

    • felix 14.3

      Jesus. He didn’t even know about the most recent poll, so he changed the subject.

      That bears repeating: In a interview with a major media outlet, in an election campaign, a senior MP doesn’t know the result of the most recent poll.

      What exactly are his secret powers again? His contribution to date appears to be putting on a poncy voice and masturbating.

      Time he was put out to pasture.

      • marty mars 14.3.1

        Tautoko. He also does a distainful look that combines ‘there’s some dogshit on my shoe and you, at the other end of the camera, put it there’.

        • felix 14.3.1.1

          Ha, he does too! I have no idea why he was ever touted as some kind of “great brown hope” for Labour.

  15. interesting 15

    Funny how the other polls didnt matter cos they were BEFORE the CGT tax announcement so shouldnt be read in to……and yet here is another poll taken BEFORE the CGT tax announcement…..and because it shows the left doing well it can be trusted???

    This is the problem when people dismiss a poll that is bad for “their side” with excuses….which then get totally ignored when a poll goes in favour of their team….

    • r0b 15.1

      Did you actually read the post?  I’m guessing not:

      It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends. 

  16. Something puzzling with the numbers:

    The gap between National and ACT v Labour and Green is gradually narrowing. It’s at 12% this time, which means if 6% of people change their minds, we have a change of government.

    If 6% changed from National to Labour:
    National go from 49% to 43%
    Labour go from 33.5% to 39.5%

    National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.
    Would Greens risk their first real coalition with a runner up party?

    Anyway these numbers are:
    – at the low end of National’s recent range
    – at the high end of Labour’s range
    – unlikely to simply shift from National to Labour, Act, NZ First and Maori are at least as likely to pick up soft National votes, and NZ First and Maori and Greens are at least as likely to pick up soft Labour votes.

    It’s far too soon to worry about the seating arrangements in parliament.

    • Ianupnorth 16.1

      The greens have principals against working with environmental criminals, there would little chance of them hopping into bed with a mob intent on mining everywhere and drilling for oil.

    • Rich 16.2

      National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.

      MYTH!

      The government is formed by the leader that can get a majority of MPs and win a confidence motion in parliament. It doesn’t matter if that leader’s own party got 30% or 49%.

      • It might matter to voters, and I’m sure that’s in the minds of the parties, especially the small ones who have ambitions for being more than a one term coalition party. Greens in particular seem very cautious about how they are seen to associate.

        But…this hasn’t been tested in an election since Peters jumped for baubles, although the Maori Party are facing judgement of a similar but different kind from joining the biggest party but at odds with it’s electorates.

        • felix 16.2.1.1

          It matters in the minds of National, hence it’s flung from the tongue of Pete George.

          More “everyone must support the biggest party” bullshit from one-party-pete.

        • Lanthanide 16.2.1.2

          Your statement doesn’t make logical sense anyway.

          Consider this scenario: Party A gets 45% of the seats, Party B gets 40% of the seats and Party C gets 11% of the seats.

          A + C or B + C will get sufficient seats to form a government.

          Party C knows this.

          If Party A gets “first choice”, they go talk to Party C and Party says “get screwed, we’re only going to work with Party B”. How does Party A getting “first choice” affect the results of the election at all?

          Now, if Party C liked A and B equally, it would be in their interests to say “sorry B, but A just got more votes than you” and choose party A. But this is entirely up to Party C whether they do this.

          Trying to impose any sort of rule in the process is meaningless anyway because this is effectively a market with A and B competing for C’s affection, and C could just say “yes, we considered A first and then rejected it” and they would still be abiding by the rules, even if in their heart of hearts they never planned to go with A anyway.

          • felix 16.2.1.2.1

            You’re absolutely correct.

            If Pete rejects your logic, he will have to admit that couched in his “first rights at forming a coalition” is the totalitarian idea that the largest party has more right to form a coalition than several small parties.

          • Carol 16.2.1.2.2

            Also, Labour are saying before the election that they would go into coalition with the Greens. People will know that when they make their choices on election day, just as voters will know that National & Act are joined_at_the_hip_factions_of_the_same_party.

          • Secret Squirrel 16.2.1.2.3

            I’m aware there are not and there can’t be specific rules on the formation of a government. I presume the partys have some sort of convention worked out, but there’s nothing to stop some parties ignoring that.

            But I imagine many voters (apart rom those desparate for power) could get very irate if a party with a clear lead (in seats) was sidelined by some minor parties, and they’d be likely to punish it at the next election.

            Eg on current polling, if the seats went something like:
            National 56
            Act 2
            UF 1
            Labour 40
            Green 15
            Maori 5
            Mana 1

            felix, you’re just being a nob if you try to paint this as pro National, it would apply to whatever party got the most votes.

            • Lanthanide 16.2.1.2.3.1

              Have a look at how the Lib Dems are fairing in the UK where it they are C and conservatives are A.

              Turns out the public aren’t very happy at C. C was screwed either way.

            • felix 16.2.1.2.3.2

              No Pete, it applies to neither party because it simply doesn’t apply.

              The largest party does not get to dictate negotiations by rule or by convention.

              Ignorance or lies, makes no difference. You’re full of shit either way.

          • mikesh 16.2.1.2.4

            The point is that if both B and C say they can’t support A because of the policies A espouses, then A simply can’t form a government no matter what. This doesn’t seem like something the general population would have difficulty understanding.

            • Colonial Viper 16.2.1.2.4.1

              You guys still giving SS the time of day?

              • McFlock

                While it’s fun calling him a shallow arrogant party hack masquerading as a stupid fuckwit, the trouble is that if everybody refuses to give SS the time of day he’ll complain that the “left” (apparently following instructions from the Global Left Politburo) “refuses to engage in civil debate”.

                A bit like some of the AGW climate change deniers. As one commentator I read put it, jerks like SS have an idea that “Baby’s First Cartesian Doubt” counts as civil debate.

              • Lanthanide

                I only replied because it’s a common but stupid line that right-tards like to spout. I was more doing it for the purposes of having it on record than wanting to educate SS/PeteG.

                Probably should have gone with party Apple, Banana and Cherry though, to help out with their little minds that can’t cope with abstract ideas.

                • burt

                  I only replied because it’s a common but stupid line that right-tards like to spout.

                  I don’t think that’s right. It’s the line the party who is currently polling the highest likes to spout. It was also that proven liar’s Winston’s position that he would work with the party who had the most votes first. That kind of popularised the issue as Winston’s inclined to do because having no substance he needs a way to sell his BS.

                  • Probably burt, there is no defined protocol for how coalitions are to be formed, the official line is “leave it to the politicians”.

                    Of course the party with the most seats will push their case as priority. And I don’t doubt Labour would promote themselves as having top shot at it if they got the most seats.

                    If two leading parties have a similar number of seats I think it wouldn’t matter, it would come down to which parties can agree to a coalition.

                    But if the biggest party had significantly more seats and was sidelined from coalition negotiations by a bunch of smaller parties it would be interesting to see how voters would react. It might all depend on how well the coalition held together – there would almost certainly be increased pressure and tension between parties.

                    • felix

                      You still haven’t said what “having top shot” means in reality though.

                      Do you mean others would be somehow obliged to deal with them?

                      If that’s not what you mean, then what?

    • felix 16.3

      “National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.”

      Complete bullshit.

      “It’s far too soon to worry about the seating arrangements in parliament.”

      Only accurate sentence you’re likely to write all day.

    • Lazy Susan 16.4

      National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.

      Just been waiting for that old chestnut to surface. Looks like the right wing trolls are getting rattled already. As Rich says it’s about which leader can put together a coalition government that guarantees confidence and supply.

    • Reality Bytes 16.5

      The real issue of the day is if Act wish to retain any iota of credibility and put forward the possibility that they will work with Labour over Nats, if Labour has more compatible policy than the Nats.

      At the moment they just seem to be the National-B option party. They have no point of distinction and will compromise their values just to be seen as a ‘righty’ party. If you are a Nact supporter, why on earth would you vote for them, considering it may be a wasted vote if they don’t get in?

      If they had any concerns about their credibility, they would say: ‘we will work with the party that best supports our core values’ Not a vote for us equals a vote for the Nats. Oh and by the way we think the Nats are dicks, so don’t vote for them, vote for us, because we are oh so desperate for votes+survival.

      Act’s core principles are for smaller government and less tax burden. Last I checked it was Labour that actually had a lower tax rate strategy overall, not National.

      If Act want to portray themselves as hypocrits and be the National-lite party, then yeah it may get them 2 or 3 seats this time round, but political oblivion awaits them in 2014.

  17. Rich 17

    Why do they ask questions in polls that don’t actually relate to our electoral system?

    There isn’t a box on election day for preferred PM and there isn’t a box for satisfaction with the previous government. Has anyone ever found a correlation between these questions and either voting intentions or actual voting – do they give a better correlation to votes, or do they forerun them (I suspect not, or we’d have heard)?

    About all they do tell us is that Labour would be doing way better with (insert person other than Goff or any other frontbencher who’s been around more than one term here).

  18. ak 18

    Winne v. ACT is interesting.

    Zero/negative MSM cover v. MSM satufellation and the most potent political card in history. Yet neck and neck still. With the ACT scrotum empty, Winnie primed and well into foreplay.

    Take the Maori Party percentage off the Right. They’ll never enable a NAT-led govt. At worst they’d repeat the ’08 arrangement for more crumbs (for which we should all be thankful, or it would’ve been three years of a nasty psychoACT tail wagging the Key puppy), at best a Maori-Mana combo for the Left.

    Accept that Banks will win Epsom. Every gold-plated fibre of the massive NACT/msm machine will be devoted to it.

    The asset-sales leaflets are working. Crank up those presses and oil up those bikes, brothers and sisters, and Phil: talk hard and long with Winnie. If Nicey can french kiss ACThorroids with msm impunity, you can seduce an old flame. There’s heavy angst in the air: it could be Hels/Jim and ’99 all over again.

  19. Deadly_NZ 19

    When the NATS have a good poll the MSM shout it from the rooftops. When Labour get a good poll NOTHING. WTF.

      • gobsmacked 19.1.1

        When the NATS have a good poll the MSM shout it from the rooftops. When Labour get a good poll NOTHING..

        No. When the Nats have a good poll … the NATS shout it from the rooftops. That’s why it’s in the MSM. The media have to be fed (i.e. spun). That’s how it works.

        On Monday “No Right Turn” had a story on the Brownlee/ Shipley remuneration scandal in Christchurch. It was then picked up as the lead story on TV One news. That’s due to one person, no resources, no team, no party machine, no salary – just a blogger who did some hard work.

        It says a great deal about Labour’s performance that after nearly 24 hours, DPF has now commented on the poll on his Stuff blog, and Labour have still not said a thing. I’ll repeat that – a positive poll for Labour, and it’s the guy from the other side who gets in the media first! (If it had been a good poll for National, it would have taken DPF five minutes).

        For Labour, ‘Communications Failure’ is an understatement.

  20. Colonial Viper 20

    I’ve crunched the numbers and things are looking stronger for National since late March 2011, when compared with the totality of the opposition parties as according to Roy Morgan.

    In fact National’s base support has firmed and is up around the same levels as they were sitting at in Q4 2009.

    Their asset sale plans, the implosion of ACT and general incompetence in the management of Christchurch have had no lasting negative impact on them at all vis a vis the Roy Morgan.

    Not good.

    The only upside is that public confidence in them as a Government is waning in a real way, again per the Roy Morgan. The juxtaposition is worth thinking about.

  21. randal 21

    I never crunched no numbers. I just talk to people and it seems like they have had enough of a government that promised everything and did nothing.

    • Colonial Viper 21.1

      Yeah I’ve talked to a lot of people like that too.

      Question: did they go on and issue statements of support for Labour or for the Greens.

      Because its clear that although ‘Confidence in the Government’ is falling (which reflects your anecdotal experience), the ‘Opposition Parties’ are not benefitting from it one whit.

  22. fabregas4 22

    Lots of talk about TV1 and TV3 polls. This one, the Roy Morgan appears to be the most impartial. can anyone comment on this?

  23. I think a clue to the variance between the two polls is the don’t know/won’t respond count.

    I heard that the TV1 poll had a 14% don’t know — huge! Roy Morgan reports 8.5%.

    • McFlock 23.1

      14% don’t know? NACT better hope they don’t make up their mind to vote left this time around.

      • queenstfarmer 23.1.1

        And Labour better hope they don’t vote right. Very often it is the “undecided voter” who decides elections. Even after months of campaining, they still don’t know. I’m quite convinced that many of these people are the types who are swayed by whoever’s hoarding they last saw, or which party has the prettiest logo, or which ad had the catchy tune, etc.

        • mik e 23.1.1.1

          Or who had the dirtiest campaign

        • felix 23.1.1.2

          “Very often it is the “undecided voter” who decides elections.”

          Not at all. Their vote has precisely the same influence on the result as that of someone who decided months or years ago. Take either vote out of the total and you’ll notice that the result changes by exactly the same amount.

          “I’m quite convinced that many of these people are the types who are swayed by whoever’s hoarding they last saw…”

          Yes, I too suspect this.

    • lprent 23.2

      It was

      “UNDECIDED VOTERS” figures (previously unreleased) from ONE NEWS COLMAR BRUNTON POLL last night

      Party Vote 8% Down 3% (from May Poll)
      Electorate Vote 14% Down 2% (from May Poll)

      Sourced from Andi Brotherson’s e-mail that gets sent to the standards e-mail. The Morgan poll is just party voters, so the 8% vs 8.5% is pretty similar.

      Of course it doesn’t count the people who don’t have land-lines, don’t list their landline number (like me), and don’t answer their landline unless they know the caller id (like me). Since electorates range from having 35% landlines to households to 90% throughout the country with some pretty obvious demographic biases, I think that they are largely measuring political intentions amongst those conservative enough to have a listed phone line and to answer it.

  24. rod 24

    Don’t think we will see Roy Morgan’s poll results on any of the TV news channels tonight or any time soon.

  25. William Watson 25

    As a fiscally conservative voter (ie, I like balanced budgets on average) I think Labour never looked so good. But I don’t think my feelings are widespread yet.

  26. I’ve recieved the results of the latest Horizon polling. It makes for interesting reading…

    http://fmacskasy.blogspot.com/p/political.html

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    Labour | 29-10
  • National has chance to show leadership on limos
    The National Party has the opportunity to show leadership by transitioning our vehicle fleet towards renewable electricity when a new contract to supply Government limousines for VIPs goes to tender next month, the Green Party said today. "This is a...
    Greens | 29-10
  • The Māori Party can’t have it both ways over labour laws
    The Māori Party has to fess up over its voting record on the Employment Relations Amendment Bill, says Labour’s Māori Caucus.  “It’s simply not good enough to oppose the bill at the same time  as they helped speed up its progress through...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Equal pay and the aged care sector
    Today the High Court upheld the historic ruling by the Employment Court that our Equal Pay Act could be used to consider work of equal value cases; the government has been telling the UN and ILO that it could for...
    Greens | 29-10
  • Court case perfect opportunity for Government to improve gender pay gap
    If the Government wants to halt New Zealand’s slump in international rankings on the gender pay gap it should act on the court finding that women deserve equal wages, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “The World Economic Forum’s...
    Labour | 28-10
  • All Auckland transport options should be considered
    All options for meeting Auckland's transport needs should be considered, including reprioritising the transport budget away from wasteful spending on motorways, the Green Party said today.Auckland mayor Len Brown is today releasing a transport report by the Independent Advisory Board,...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Another report highlights Govt failure on child poverty
    An international report measuring the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on child poverty rates, showing children in New Zealand have done worse than children in other countries, is further proof the Government needs to urgently take additional steps...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Child poverty: No more wake-up calls
    A new report which shows the National Government has made no inroads whatsoever into child poverty should do more than just set alarm bells ringing, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “UNICEF’s  latest Innocenti Report Card highlights the fact...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Eugenie Sage speaks in the 2014 Address in Reply Debate
    I congratulate you, Assistant Speaker Mallard, as Assistant Speaker and look forward to your knowledge, your fairness, and your light touch in being a referee of proceedings in this House. I congratulate also the other Assistant Speaker, Lindsay Tisch; the...
    Greens | 28-10
  • James Shaw’s Maiden Speech
    Tena Koe, Mr Speaker. I would like to take this opportunity to speak a little of the past, the present and the future. The privilege to serve in this Parliament was given to me by all those who gave their...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Govt airs real views on public broadcasting
    An admission by the Government that it is happy to experiment with Pacific and Maori audiences shows just how weak its vision for public broadcasting in New Zealand is, Labour’s Broadcasting spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “National today admitted it doesn’t...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Does Judith Collins have a get out of jail card?
    Former justice minister Judith Collins appears to have been gifted a get out of jail free card based on the Prime Minister’s answers in Parliament today, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “Judith Collins claimed in an Official Information...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Solid Energy decision delay sensible
    Today’s announcement by the Board of Solid Energy that it will delay making a final decision on re-entering the Pike River mine is a sensible move, Labour’s MP for  West Coast-Tasman Damien O’Connor says. “It has been clear for some...
    Labour | 28-10
  • New York Green Bank off to a $1B start
    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced late last week the New York Green Bank’s first NZD$1 billion tranche of green energy investments. The projects, which are difficult for the private sector to finance, are now possible by New York Green...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Myth Busting Rape Boasters
    In just one week a case that galvanised a nation into discussing rape culture is now being reframed as mischievous teen hi-jinx. One year ago the Roast Busters case came to the attention of the media and the public. This...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • Workers rights weakened by new laws – fightback needed
    The government’s changes to the employment laws are designed to weaken workers bargaining power – at both the individual and collective level.   30-day rule The old law required an employer with a collective agreement in place to employ new...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Simon Buckingham – Where are Labour Candidates on disability?
    For the few people who know me (hello Mum), I am proudly New Zealand’s first Autistic Spectrum Lawyer, as well as being the very bottom Candidate on the Labour Party List. (64 out of 64). Being honoured like this is...
    The Daily Blog | 31-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Blockade the Budget
    The ‘Independent’ Police Conduct Authority’s report into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash The report released by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash riddled with inaccuracies....
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • When National claim new anti worker laws provide ‘flexibility’ they mea...
    And so it comes to pass. The first law National ram through as part of their victory march are new anti worker laws they pretend will generate ‘flexibility’. The new law denigrate the unions ability to protect workers and provide...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • City Transport: A Taxing Matter
    This week the prospect of paying tolls on Auckland motorways became a hot topic. (See Mathew Dearnaley:Motorway tolling could hit some hard, NZ Herald, 30 Oct 2014.) As we might expect, the kneejerk response has been quite negative. But, as with...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Open Letter to Amy Adams: Please Reopen The Review Into Sexual Violence Cou...
    Ms Amy Adams, Justice and Courts Minister, Right now in this country it seems that although rape is illegal, it is not being prevented by the agents who uphold the law. It almost feels like rape is only illegal on paper,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Things That Make You Go Hmmmmmmm
    Every so often in politics, a public figure comes out with something so absurd and so outlandish … that it really does just make you go “Hmmmmmmmmmm”. We’re accustomed to this from certain quarters – by mid point through the...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Poverty & inequality don’t need protest marches – they need a riot:...
    The global level of inequality continues to skyrocket… Number of billionaires doubled since financial crisis The number of billionaires has doubled since the start of the financial crisis, according to a major new report from anti-poverty campaigners. According to Oxfam,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • If Key knows who Rawshark is…
    I’m sorry, what? John Key ‘given Rawshark’s name’The Prime Minister believes he knows who hacked Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater’s computer and produced the source material for Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics, according to a new edition of a recently published...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Child Poverty stats in NZ
    Child Poverty stats in NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Crimes Act + Police Investigation = WTF
    Just to frame the farce that is the Roastbuster’s investigation and conclusion – here are the parts of the Crime Act http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/whole.html#DLM329057  the Roastbusters are proven to have violated – that the police (and some suspects!) themselves acknowledge occurred: Crimes...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Publishing Journalists’ Home Addresses Is A Tactic Of The Right, Not The ...
    I think I’m starting to get rather annoyed with the conduct of some pro-MANA people over this ongoing Parliamentary Services crew complement issue. Yes, we get that there are legitimate issues to be raised with how some political reporters in...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Aucklanders caught between a tarseal-addicted government and a weak mayor
    Len Brown’s proposal for motorway tolls to reduce congestion and provide funding for better public transport is a weak response to a critical issue. The $12 billion dollar shortfall on transport funding he talks about is mainly for projected new...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • A Very Weird Story: Deconstructing Darren Aronofsky’s Noah.
    NOAH is a curious movie. Conceived as a biblical epic, it’s target audience was originally the millions of Americans who regard the Bible as God’s inerrant word. With the sin-filled works of Hollywood forbidden to these true-believers, Christian movie-makers have developed...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • You Can Get Away With Rape In New Zealand
    Jessie Hume with last years petition against rape     The police have sent a strong message today.  In fact they’ve been sending a strong message for a while; a message that our government supports. “You can literally get away...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Roast Buster case – no charges. In the immortal words of NWA…
    Roast Busters case: No prosecutions Police are to make an announcement this afternoon on Operation Clover, the investigation into the “Roast Busters” allegations. The Herald understands the victim has been told that the alleged offenders will not be prosecuted due...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Key’s flag change distraction to cost $26million!
    No. Way. Bid to change NZ flag to cost millions The cost of holding two referendums and consulting on a change of flag has been estimated to be just under $26 million. Look. We all appreciate that the sleepy hobbits...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Why NZ Herald’s Labour Party crocodile tears are so audacious
    The front page the NZ Herald would use if they thought they could get away with it No one can take the recent columns by NZ Herald seriously… John Armstrong: Shadow lingers on National John Roughan: Labour’s leadership vote matters...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • The beginning of the end of Cameron Slater?
    Slater postings on man bizarre, court told A businessman has changed his appearance and had to install extra security at his home after Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater posted his business and personal documents online, he says. Mr Slater has...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • We are a milk power republic and Fonterra our unelected senate
    Wow. Just wow… Deputy mayor says he’ll be sacked South Taranaki deputy mayor Alex Ballantyne says he expects to be sacked because he has spoken out about the impact gasses coming from dumped Fonterra dairy products have had on his...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: “…But *actually* this is about ethics in political-game jo...
    Yesterday, a piece of mine on the recent revelations about Hone Harawira employing several gentlemen either accused or convicted of sex offences was published on The Daily Blog. Predictably, given the fierce loyalty which Hone inspires in his party faithful and...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Privilege cheque
    There was no race problem in my childhood. Living in central Wellington I was well-insulated from what was going on not so far away. This was the 60s and 70s, where the teachers enjoyed free love in the staff room...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • A brief word on Key’s claim that it will be raining carnage
    Isis will ‘rain carnage on the world’ – John Key Left unchecked Isis would “rain carnage on the world”, Prime Minister John Key says, but he has yet to make a decision on whether New Zealand troops will join a...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Meanwhile…
    ...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • How does Andrew Little win Labour Leadership and unify the caucus?
    Audrey Young’s excellent column on how the Caucus vote  is shaping up shows how Andrew Little becomes the next leader of the Labour Party. She identifies the factions as the following… Andrew Little 6: Andrew Little, David Cunliffe, Iain Lees Galloway,...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Right of response to Curwen
    You have asked that Hone Harawira deserves to explain what happened, how would he explain when his next door neighbour is an alleged sex offender. What explanation can Hone offer he wasn’t involved, Hone had no idea this offending was...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: That Hella-Weird Feeling When You Defend Tova O’Brien
    Oh dear. Yesterday morning I blogged that Hone deserved a chance to explain what exactly had happened as applies his office’s Parliamentary Services crew complement – and, importantly, that we deserve to be able to judge him on the strength of...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Canadian Green MP warns against harsh anti-terror measures
    Canada’s Green Party has provided a welcome counterpoint to Prime Minister Harper’s call for tougher anti-terrorism laws in the wake of a soldier outside the Canadian Parliament. On October 22, while she was still locked in her parliamentary office, Green...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • When is an asset sale not an asset sale? When it robs from the poor and ste...
    National have turned state housing on its head. At no time during the 2014 election did the Key Government even hint that they were going to privatise 30% of the Housing NZ stock of state homes. Not once. Key even...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part To...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Rua) . Bill English comes clean on National’s intentions for HNZ privatisation . On 14 October, in a report on The Daily Blog, I wrote, In...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • The Questions Have Been Asked – They Deserve An Answer
    A few days ago, allegations that had been percolating for some time about Hone Harawira employing three either accused or convicted sex offenders on his Parliamentary pay-roll came to light. (one imprisoned before working for MANA; one who found himself convicted and...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • I have seen one future, and it is bleak
    . . Back in  March 2012, I wrote this story regarding a march to support striking workers at Ports of Auckland. It appears there was some prescience about some of my observations at the time… . | | 18 March...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • US air strike war Key wants us in has killed a civilian a day so far
      The US air strike war that John Key wants us to join has killed a civilian a day so far. From the Washington Post... The United States launched its first airstrikes on militants in Syria on Sept. 23, and has continued...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • The instant Jihad syndrome
    My favourite new term is ‘self-radicalised’ – it suggests the reasons for terrorism are totally divorced from the actions of the West. This need to suddenly ramp up terror laws because of lone wolf, self-radicalised Jihadists seems convenient and counter-productive....
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • We have nothing to fear from Ebola but fear itself
    I suspect most Americans perceive Ebola like this   I can’t work out if the fear being spread within the media about Ebola is deliberate or just ignorance. Yes Ebola is a terrible plague that kills a large percentage of...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – “Meritocracy? I wish.”
    I’d like to start by linking to a post I had published at another site in support of Nanaia Mahuta for the Labour Party leadership election.  She has a reasonable chance, given that she already has the endorsement of Te...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Chocolate milk shortage and creepy Santa? Let’s talk about real news
    Child poverty is still a scarily serious problem in this country and house prices are soaring through the roof to the point where it is simply impossible for the average New Zealander to buy a home. There is also little...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • It’s time to celebrate Kiwi schools and teachers
    Some would have you believe that New Zealand’s schools are in a state of collapse, that your children are not being educated well and that things are going to hell in a hand basket.  That there is no innovation, no...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Ideological Blitzkrieg – Privatization of state housing, more charter sch...
    Pundits in pundit land will tell you that this Government is boring, that Key is the great pragmatist and that it is his ability to create elegant solutions that keeps him the firm favourite in many Kiwi eyes. This ability...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • Hegemony rules but resistance is fertile
    The Prime Minister is a puppet. Not just our current Prime Minister, but given the forces of multinational globalisation, the role of any head of state, is less as independent actor, and more as a puppet of international trends and...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • An open Letter to Sir Bob Jones: demanding a ‘liveable wage’ is not “...
    How out of touch with reality is Sir Bob Jones? You know, that white dude who invested in privatised SOEs after the selling off of our assets in the eighties and made a ludicrous and disgusting amount of money and is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • My insecurity about the Security Council
    As I write this (on 24 October) it is international UN Day. Of course, you all knew that already, right? Well, the day celebrates the entry into force of the UN Charter in 1945. With the ratification of this founding...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Back in That House
    Parliament opened this week and I still find it a very odd place. Most of the people are reasonably courteous and friendly, but the rituals are archaic and the rules around issues like the swearing in oath are oppressive and...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Marae Investigates No More
    TVNZ yesterday announced the closure of their Māori and Pacific programmes department. That means they’ve chosen to stop making Fresh, Tagata Pasifika, Waka Huia and Marae Investigates to let independent producers get their hands on these lucrative contracts. This is...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • BLOGWATCH: An Un-Civil War in Labour, eh?
    Earlier today, my attention was directed to an entry that’s just recently appeared on the Slightly Left of Centre blog. It purports to contain the ‘inside word’ from a highly placed NZF source – which is funny, because I’m pretty sure...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Santanomics 101
    Santanomics could mean a number of things. It could be the study and practice of giving. Or it could mean the study and practice of rampant end-of-year commercialism. However, for me today it is the economics of erectingAuckland’s giant Santa...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • SkyCity boss misleads public over workers lost shifts
    SkyCity CEO Nigel Morrison has defended the employment practices at his company in an “Opinion” piece entitled “Human Capital key to corporate success” in the NZ Herald on Thursday. A number of his claims are misleading, contain only partial truths...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Review: Perfect Place
    I went to a Perfect Place on Tuesday night, and what a delight it was. The marshmallows sweetly (and forcefully) handed out pre-show, set the tone for the next hour. Walking up the stairs at The Basement was a complete...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Roast Busters: Turn Indignation into Action
    People raged about the Roast Buster case. The indignation was justified – it was horrible. “Where were their parents!?” Fair question. I am sure the Roast Busters’ parents and the victims’ parents all wish they had been more proactive in...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Stats NZ only have themselves to blame for postponement
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says Statistics NZ only have themselves to blame for the indefinite postponement of the release of the Food Price Index: November 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • NZ Diversity Survey – benchmarking workplace diversity
    AUT University’s New Zealand Work Research Institute (NZWRI) has released a report on diversity in New Zealand workplaces....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Māori Language (Te Reo Māori) Bill
    Tutehounuku Korako, Chair of the Māori Affairs Committee, is inviting further public submissions on this bill. The closing date for submissions is Friday, 5 December 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • ERA amendments a mixed bag
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act has the potential to put vulnerable workers in a more precarious position, says Equal Opportunities Commissioner, Dr Jackie Blue. However, the commissioner says the right for all to request flexible work hours is...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Sensible Sentencing calls for appeal of judicial activivism
    The Sensible Sentencing Trust is appalled that Justice Jill Mallon has today refused to apply the Life without Parole (LWOP) provisions of the Three Strikes law as enacted by Parliament....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Global Rally against ISIS – for Kobanê – for Humanity, Nov 1
    The New Zealand Kurdish Community will march in solidarity with Kurdistan as part of the “GLOBAL RALLY AGAINST ISIS – FOR KOBANÊ – FOR HUMANITY” on 1 November 2014, 2pm....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Safer roads are better for everyone
    Recent pedestrian versus vehicle incidents highlight the real issues being addressed by delegates as the 2Walk and Cycle conference concludes....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Law change creates more flexible labour market
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act, passed yesterday, will bring new flexibility to the labour market and will reduce the ability of unions to organise and to recruit....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Bumper ANZ profits mean no excuse for insecure hours
    A big rise in profits at New Zealand's largest bank needs to be reflected in a better pay offer and more security around hours of work, the bank workers’ union said today....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Count down to lowered alcohol limit
    With just a month to go until a new lower alcohol limit for adult drivers comes into effect, Police and road safety agencies are reminding drivers of the impending change....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • WorkSafe Supports Forestry Review Findings
    WorkSafe NZ says the Independent Forestry Safety Review has clearly identified the problems facing an industry in which ten workers were killed last year. “The Review’s analysis matches our own view and leaves no doubt about the need for comprehensive,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU welcomes forestry review recommendations
    The CTU is welcoming the today's release of the independent forestry safety review panel findings. "These recommendations must be implemented to ensure that everything possible is done to make forestry safer." CTU President, Helen Kelly said....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Activists will confront animal abusers
    Today animal rights activists will confront a group of wealth advisers who want to build the biggest egg factory-farm in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Turia: Women’s Refuge Conference 2014
    This is a milestone moment in my life. This will be my last official address as Co-leader of the Maori Party. On Saturday night at our Hui-a-Tau, I will be standing down from that role and enabling a new co-leader,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rodeo Code of Welfare ‘Sick Joke’
    Animal advocacy organisation SAFE says the revised Code of Welfare for Rodeos just released is nothing but a sick joke. “Rodeo animals are goaded, tormented and forced to endure needless suffering and gross mistreatment, all for the sake of so-called...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Conservative Party applauds binding referenda on flag
    The Conservative Party are congratulating the Government on the decision to hold two binding referendums to decide the fate of New Zealand’s flag – and believes it will pave the way for binding referenda to form part of New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Walk the Talk – Opposing violence against women
    Soroptimist International of Auckland have organised a walk on 22 November from Silo Park at the Wynyard Quarter through the Viaduct and back to Silo Park, to show their opposition to violence against women. This event hopes to raise awareness...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Recommendations on the Design of Pecuniary Penalties
    The Law Commission has reviewed the use of pecuniary penalties as a regulatory tool. Pecuniary penalties are financial penalties that policymakers are increasingly opting to use in place of criminal sanctions in order to punish and deter misconduct in...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Every worker will be affected by employment law changes
    Every worker will feel the effects of the government’s new employment laws and should join a union if they want to maintain and increase their wages and conditions, says New Zealand’s largest private sector union, the EPMU....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Shameful attack on all workers
    The Government has passed the Employment Relations Amendment Act slashing the rights of all Kiwi workers. “These changes are shameful. New Zealand now has some of the worst employment protections in the OECD. It is embarrassing that a country which...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Unnecessary law changes more to do with ideology
    The government’s employment law changes are simply ideological and are at odds with its approach in the related areas of health and safety and immigration law, FIRST Union said tonight....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU Runanga calls on iwi leaders
    Maori workers are calling on iwi leaders to speak out against the employment law changes expected to go through today. “Iwi leaders have previously spoken out when workers in Aotearoa have been under attack, we believe they should do so...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Educating children not the best solution to alcohol harm
    Alcohol Healthwatch says we need to look beyond educating children and young people to address deeply embedded attitudes and behaviours concerning alcohol....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • New code of welfare for rodeos released
    New standards to strengthen the animal welfare requirements for rodeos have been issued today by the Minister for Primary Industries, Nathan Guy....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • IPCA report riddle with inaccuracies, say students
    A report by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is riddled with inaccuracies, say students who laid the original complaint with the IPCA....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CT v The Queen – indecency convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rameka v The Queen – murder convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Auckland Council Out of Control
    Responding to the NZ Herald article that some Auckland households will face a rates rise of up to 9.6 per cent next year, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “Len Brown’s pledge to cap rates rises at 2.5 per...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Stats NZ staff escalate action with ‘no more meetings’ rule
    Statistics NZ staff have voted to escalate their ongoing industrial action in an effort to get Stats NZ back to the bargaining table with a reasonable offer. The staff, who are members of the Public Service Association (PSA), have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Rape Crisis calls for changes to criminal justice system
    Wellington Rape Crisis has added its voice to the public outcry following the announcement that there will be no charges in the teen rape gang case. Butterworth says the decision not to lay charges will not have been a surprise...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Police action justified in Blockade the Budget demonstration
    Police actions in dealing with a demonstration in Central Auckland known as Blockade the Budget on 1 June 2012 were justified and appropriate, an Independent Police Conduct Authority report released today found....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • NZDF Joins with Australia to Commemorate WWI Centenary
    A contingent of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel will join their Australian counterparts at Australia’s first major commemoration of the First World War centenary in Albany, Western Australia this weekend....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Reserve Bank should reduce interest rate
    “The Reserve Bank should be reducing its policy interest rate, the OCR”, says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg in response to the Bank’s announcement today that it is not increasing it....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • 2015 Stout Fellow will write about Māori & Criminal Justice
    Kim Workman, founder and advocate for the Robson Hanan Trust, which administers the Rethinking Crime and Punishment and Justspeak initiatives, has been awarded the 2015 John David Stout Fellowship at Victoria University....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • What John Key thought about ‘dirty politics’
    On September 20, John Key swept to victory to become one of New Zealand’s most successful and popular Prime Ministers. Rocked by scandal, the 2014 election campaign was one of the most brutal – and riveting – in recent history....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Trade Deal Threatens Farmers and Food Businesses
    The secret Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations are a direct threat to food businesses and farmers, and a moratorium on the release of GE crops must be enshrined in law before the TPP is signed....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • CTU announces election of new Secretary
    The contested election for the position of CTU Secretary has been won by Sam Huggard. Sam officially takes office on Monday 1 December 2014. Sam has worked in the union movement and brings a wealth of experience and a commitment...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kim Workman awarded 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship
    The Victoria University of Wellington 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship, funded by the Stout Trust, has been awarded to justice reform advocate Kim Workman. Mr Workman (Ngati Kahungungu ki Wairarapa, Rangitaane) is well known for his work on criminal justice,...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • TPPA causing concern
    Concern over the secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) negotiations is being expressed in two public meetings over the next week; one at a presentation on 5th November by former councillor Robin Gwynn to the Napier City Council, the...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kiwis rally to demand justice for ‘Roast Buster’ survivors
    Over 1,500 kiwis have rallied to demand justice after the announcement of the NZ Police decision not to lay charges in the ‘Roast Busters’ saga....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • New employment law will hurt the most vulnerable NZers
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says changes to the Employment Relations Act, expected to be passed in Parliament tonight, will hurt vulnerable workers and their families more than anyone....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Consultation to close on proposed place names
    The New Zealand Geographic Board (NZGB) Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa today advised that only one month remains before public consultation closes for 18 name proposals for geographic features and places around Te Ika ā Māui (the North Island)....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Operation Clover – Statement from Police Commissioner
    I have taken a close interest in this investigation and I am confident police have conducted a thorough and professional enquiry in what has been a challenging and complex case. The Operation Clover team has ensured that victims have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Better policy would have protected children from recession
    Child Poverty Action Group says an international report released by UNICEF today shows good policy can protect and improve child well-being, even during a recession....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Outcome of Operation Clover investigation
    Police have completed a multi-agency investigation, Operation Clover, into the activities of a group calling themselves “The Roast Busters”. The 12 month enquiry focused on incidents involving allegations of sexual offending against a number of girls...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • False birth registration brings home detention
    A Whangarei woman who attempted to register the birth of a fictitious child to claim a sole parent benefit was sentenced to six months home detention in the Whangarei District Court today....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Family of Robert Ellis demand a proper investigation
    The family of a New Zealander killed in Indonesia are growing increasingly concerned at the lack of information they’ve received, and the handling of the investigation into his murder....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Minister of Health must account for aged care workers’ pay
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) congratulates rest-home worker Kristine Bartlett on her landmark claim for equal pay from her employer and successfully pursuing this to the Court of Appeal....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
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