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Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges

Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.

So, how are the trends looking?

Roy Morgan’s confidence in government number keeps on falling for National. It’s heading towards where it was for the 5th Labour government in the dying days of its third term.

The gap between National and ACT v Labour and Green is gradually narrowing. It’s at 12% this time, which means if 6% of people change their minds, we have a change of government. It was consistently under 10% late last year, so things haven’t really improved in the last half year or so for the Left, on the other hand, it’s a lot better than the days when the gap was over 20%.

National’s back under 50% at 49%, and only 3% or 4% from that danger zone where they would need ACT and the Maori Party to support them on every piece of their agenda to get anything done (is this why National is cooking something up with the Maori Party about special deals for iwi in asset sales?) .

The message remains that the Left can win this thing. It’s up to Labour and the Greens to turn the dissatisfcation with the government into votes. Labour’s laying out of a credible economic policy that the commentators are praising is a big part of that – they could never hope to win without that ticking that box.

Now, they sell their winning messages – we can have a fair, sustainable future, where we own our future, and everyone is better off, or we can have more of the failed economic mismanagement of National and asset sales.

110 comments on “Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges”

  1. Vinsin 1

    Not surprisingly really when you consider the first poll was before Labour’s CGT was rolled out in full. The “own the future” branding is incredibly well done too.

    • ChrisH 1.1

      Heck yes, Labour’s looking like a “real” Labour party again. Never thought I’d live to see the day.

  2. r0b 2

    Good news, at a good time.

  3. Anne 3

    The Roy Morgan was conducted between June 27 and July 10 – also before Labour’s CGT was rolled out in full.

  4. lprent 4

    Rather boring listening to the idiots raving on polls- guyon comes to mind. As you say eddie, at present Labour has clawed back to where they were last election. National is slightly better off. Nationals two support parties are trashed in terms of getting seats. I think Act will just die in Epsom, and the Maori party looks good to lose electorate seats. UF – who knows if he will get that seat again…

    The government at the election is literally looking too tight to call. It depends on what happens over the next 4 months. It is literally any of the main parties election to lose.

    • Policy Parrot 4.1

      I’ll be interested to see the next Horizon Poll.

    • This explains the shenanagins in Epsom.  National know they will not get a majority.  Support parties are going to be vital.  National will be hoping to get over the mark with ACT alone because a Nat-ACT-MP coalition is going to be really unstable, and this presumes MP has more than one left after the election.

      Labour needs to break thought the 37% mark though reasonably soon.  If this happens then it is game on … 

      • lprent 4.2.1

        Yep… I think that the CGT has good chance of pushing them there (over 37%) as it sinks in….

        • Bored 4.2.1.1

          Be very wary, one swallow doth not a summer make…..

          More importantly the polls are basically crap, the trick to winning in November is to mobilise South and West Auckland to vote, repeat mobilise South and West Auckland to vote!!!!!!!!!

          • Puddleglum 4.2.1.1.1

            And east Christchurch. God knows how that gets done. A lot of ‘east Christchurch’ is no longer in east Christchurch.

          • George D 4.2.1.1.2

            Can’t say that enough. Only one poll that counts, and unlike these ones it’s self-selecting. Gotta get out the numbers.

      • Blue 4.2.2

        I posted this link in Open Mike too – it’s not just the Epsom electorate that National and Act are gaming. The Nats know they need every seat they can get, and they’re trying to make sure they do get their majority or damn close to it.

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10739621

        • interesting 4.2.2.1

          MMP in action isnt it???

          • felix 4.2.2.1.1

            No, the reciprocal stepping aside works exactly the same way under FPP.

            Lemme guess, you think Hone is an example of the type of MP we get with MMP too, dontcha?

            • interesting 4.2.2.1.1.1

              NO…. he got in due to winning his electorate seat….. and good on him for winning it.

              • felix

                Very good.

                Now what did you mean by “MMP in action”?

                • Chris

                  In FPP you would only get 1 seat for winning Epsom, however under MMP depending on the vote Act can get more seats (say 3) just by winning that 1 seat. If it was FPP then ACT would only get 1 seat and there would be no incentive to keep them there instead of just having a National candidate. I assume that was what was meant by MMP in action.

                  Feel free to correct me if I am wrong about FPP I never actually voted in an election with it (too young) so am a bit hazy about the details.

                  • Under FPP it would be possible for mutual benefit to accrue by reciprocally ‘stepping aside’.

                    For example, under FPP a minor party may have a real chance in only one electorate seat but can be a ‘spoiler’ in several others. By the major party stepping aside in that one seat (and giving the minor party ‘its’ seat) the major party, in turn, has a better chance of gaining or holding marginal seats elsewhere when the minor party steps aside in those seats. That is, the stepping aside can give a party more than just one seat towards forming a government in return for giving up one seat.

                    In that sense, it’s the same as MMP. 

                  • felix

                    That aspect is peculiar to MMP, and not one I am personally in favour of. I don’t like having a 5% threshold and I don’t like the “win an electorate seat, bring your mates” rule which ignores the threshold.

                    (I’d prefer to see the threshold simply being the approximate percentage of the overall vote needed to win an electorate seat, which from memory is around 0.8%. i.e. you win an electorate, you get a seat. You win the equivalent amount of party votes, you get a seat.)

                    However, the scenario described above by Blue – and replied to by interesting – has nothing to do with bringing in extra MPs, it’s simply about ACT stepping aside in marginal seats to avoid splitting the overall right-wing vote.

                    This scenario is the same under MMP or FPP.

                    The only difference, I suppose, is that in this particular example under FPP National wouldn’t be giving Epsom to ACT in the first place, so ACT would have no need to reciprocate.

                    This doesn’t however mean that reciprocal arrangements aren’t any use under FPP, just that this particular one wouldn’t be.

                    edit: Pg is too quick, not unusually.

                    • Chris

                      Sweet that makes sense. I got the wrong end of the stick there a bit, which is also what I assume ‘interesting’ did

        • Deadly_NZ 4.2.2.2

          Maybe Labour should have a major push in Epsom as it seems the good people of Epsom are somewhat pissed at NACT for using them as pawns, and only looking out for themselves, What with CGT and a good Labour candidate really put the shits up the evil NACTM party.

          • Secret Squirrel 4.2.2.2.1

            The ODT has confirmed that David Parker is standing in Epsom, but that “he is not expected to threaten Act New Zealand’s John Banks”.

            That’s a standard sort of MSM assumption that tends to suppress discussion and possibilities of properly democratic “best person for electorate” coverage.

        • Puddleglum 4.2.2.3

          would it make sense, for instance, to lose the seat of New Plymouth to Andrew Little, a future leader of the Labour party, likely to be the leader of the Labour Party post the election, to lose that seat held by Jonathan Young because we put up an Act candidate?

          This from John Banks, making it very clear that ACT is not an independent party but simply a tactical off-shoot of National. For goodness’ sake, “would it make sense … to lose that seat held by Jonathan Young“. How can ACT lose a seat it doesn’t hold?

          Is there a clearer way of saying that John Banks is not concerned about furthering the support for ACT but simply about furthering the support for National? Why on earth would ACT party members countenance this? (Unless none of them are members because of the principles the party supposedly upholds.)

    • Jason 4.3

      Any indications thus far as to how the sheep of Epsom will vote?
      No doubt the cretinous Banks will hold some appeal to this laughable constituency.
      They are as far removed from reality as they are from the unfortunate 44 Hillside workers facing redundancy.

      • lprent 4.3.1

        The problem for them is that Act are restricted to about 49% of the electorate. It is really hard to find a woman who is considering voting for Act. John Banks doesn’t seem likely to change that. Their best bet is to make sure that women don’t vote.

  5. felix 5

    Keep calm and carry on.

  6. Billy Fish 6

    It’s all labours fault!!!! Them and the feminazis, greeny weridos and other sorted lot!!!!!
    Its them thats causing Global Warming!
    Global Warming?!? Its colder now than ever before, don’t talk to me about global warming!!
    Just a con to part right thinking people from their money !
    Them woman and thier monthly sick times, thats the cause of it, them and the maorification of NZ, dammit its like a bloke can’t put on a white hood and burn a cross without some lefty pinko cry baby political correctness gone madite sacking Paul Henry over it.
    Thats it! I’m moving to the 19th Century

    • Bored 6.1

      Ah the bliss of the golden age of laissez faire……….

    • Jason 6.2

      Careful Billy Fish. That sort of talk will see you drafted into the Act party.
      Oh wait – re-reading what you said – you’re far too liberal for their tastes.
      Phew!

    • mik e 6.3

      Just keep voting Nact and you,ll get there sooner than later BF

  7. gobsmacked 7

    The point about polls in an election campaign (which we’re now well and truly in) is not the details (ignored by 99% of voters) but the perception – the media battleground.

    On Sunday night the Colmar Brunton poll was bad for Labour (but good for the Greens), and it got maximum coverage. Not just because of media “bias”, but because it was commissoned by TV news, and that always means it’s a lead story, and then picked up by other media.

    The poll tonight is much better for Labour, and good for the opposition overall. But it’s not on the TV news. So now it’s up to Labour to MAKE this a news story. Otherwise, the Sunday night poll remains the story – the perception.

    And here’s the problem. In the propaganda war, Labour are too bloody slow, and ineffectual.

    The poll came out tonight, only an hour or so ago, and already there are posts on the Standard, Whale Oil, Imperator Fish, maybe other blogs I haven’t seen.

    But when will Labour pick it up? Where is their media presence? Will it be some flimsy press release tomorrow afternoon? Will Red Alert get there after everyone else has?

    An election is war. Non-stop. Nobody sleeps. Ever. If amateur bloggers have noticed a new poll, and already commented on it within minutes, why hasn’t the Official Opposition? I have a crappy old computer, Google and dial-up. What have they got?

    I don’t want to be told that people are working hard (don’t we all). I want to see Labour people in all the media, all the time, day and night, 24/7. So often they are the LAST. Slater and Farrar kick Mallard’s arse. So does No Right Turn and a bunch of others.

    I worked in election campaigns in the UK, back in the dark ages, before the internet and Twitter and all. You worked until you dropped dead, or until the polls closed on election day – whichever came first. You worked with a hunger, energy, focus, and a f**cking gun to your head. Why? Because the other parties were doing it too. And we wanted to WIN.

    I want to believe that Labour want to win in 2011. But mostly I see a horse and cart lumbering along in the space age. It makes me weep.

    If this poll is not hammered home all day tomorrow by every Labour spokesperson at every opportunity in every media outlet … well, then they deserve to lose.

    (Rant finally over!)

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      I made sure a few LAB types knew about this poll within an hour of its appearing…I’m just one wee footsoldier but I can throw a grenade and use a bayonet… :)

      • gobsmacked 7.1.1

        Good on ya, CV. “Lions led by donkeys” springs to mind …

        While I was thumping my keyboard for the comment above, a new post was added to Red Alert, on the latest results …

        Unfortunately, not the results of the Morgan poll. It’s about a rugby match.

        http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2011/07/20/breaking-the-eden-park-hoodoo/

        I rest my case.

        • seeker 7.1.1.1

          While you were fuelling the right wing scoffometers gs, Clare Curran commented a PS after the rugby post you mentioned that labour would be releasing new policy tomorrow. They are really setting the pace and not worrying about getting bogged down with polls but in getting NZ out of the bog we are currently stuck in. Get with it Gobsmacked.
          PS David Cunliffe did a great rebuttal on “Cute Joyces $18.5b misinformation tactic, and said they would keep this attack up on national’s misinformation ‘spin’ machine.(herald monday or tuesday I think; sorry bit late and head dozing off).

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1

            Yep. Policy distance between Labour and National is going to get wider and wider from here on in.

            Labour’s plans focus on the next 10-20 years. National’s plans, such as they are, run out on Nov 26.

            New Zealanders will have a very clear choice ahead of them.

            • AAMC 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Gobsmacked is right. I read a great op Ed in the guardian last year on the Right Wings mastery of the emotive argument. They are much more prepared to lie to us, fuel our prejudices, appeal to our emotions. We all know this and Act is currently proven it.
              The Left however (and I’m guilty of it myself), have a seemingly unwavering belief, that if we can just get the detail out, point out the statistics, consult academia, people will have to see the reason in our argument.
              The majority, as is proven by Mr Smile and Wave don’t want to engage in those details, and so we have to stop counting on the reason o the detail and get in the trenches with Gobsmacket.

              • seanmaitland

                Lol – sorry, but your belief may hold true for you and a few of your mates – but it certainly doesn’t represent Labour supporters in general – just witness the millions of cries of “greedy rich pricks” over the last decade and the complete piss-take that Labour does when they roll out known Labour party members to the press to claim that their families cannot afford fruit and vegies under a National government.

                What about the assault on Farmers recently using tax paid figures from the worst farming year in recent history and comparing it to their revenues and income from one of the best in recent history? Thats dubious at best. A total misrepresentation and straight-out lying at worst.

              • Colonial Viper

                +1

                The Right Wing and their Marketing execs get that peoples emotive brains are way stronger than their rational brains.

                Engage the heart before you do anything else.

  8. Reality Bytes 8

    A good noteworthy response to Labour’s CGT proposition’s.

  9. Sanctuary 9

    There has to be some concern at the polling companies themselves at these different figures, since the differences are outside the comfortable margins of error.

  10. NickC 10

    Its hilarious that almost every poll you report on sees the left gaining ground, but they never seem to gain any real ground overall…

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      That’s actually a very true observation.

    • ropata 10.2

      Do the numbers 2005, 2002, 1999 mean anything to you?

      • burt 10.2.1

        Yes they do actually, all those years were retrospectively validated for illegal election spending under urgency outside of the normal budget cycle.

        • mik e 10.2.1.1

          I see the bretheren are breaking their own ban on the use of technology again re Burt

          • burt 10.2.1.1.1

            I think ropata might be onto something actually. The police are currently evaluating if they should prosecute Labour for a reported breach of electoral funding laws and their popularity has gone up in the Morgan poll. ropata rightly points to 2005 which having been defended by saying – it’s how we always did it and the ref changed the rules; tells us 2002 & 1999 were also illegal advertising years.

            So ropata seems to have made (or stumbled across) the connection – when Labour break the law with election advertising they poll better.

    • Eddie 10.3

      The TVNZ poll was reported here too.

      • Lanthanide 10.3.1

        But your last post on polls conspicuously ignored the Roy Morgan, which was down for Labour. If anything this poll is just a bounce back up to where they should be.

    • Kaplan 10.4

      It’s hilarious that National really believed the self created myth they could just coast* in to the election AND claim an outright majority.

      As soon as the Labour started really putting the hard word on them for a plan National have been shown to be severely wanting. If the MSM and in turn NZers really start asking the hard questions and having some real expectations of their government then National will be gone come November. You can bank on that.

      *Actually it’s not like they really ever had their foot to anything other than a bike on a imaginary cycle way anyway so coasting was probably a little ambitious for them.

  11. alex 11

    Its not on stuff.co.nz yet. My bet is that it won’t be, I think Farrar organises their poll coverage.

  12. higherstandard 12

    All pollsters should be tied to a stake in the hippo enclosure the morning after all hippos have had a evening treat with gallons of guinness and vegetarian vindaloo.

  13. “I’m moving to the 19th Century”

    Funny line.

    It’s tortoise and hare. Hare’s not asleep, but hypnotized by it’s own sleek gorgeousness.
    Tortoise has reserves and has paced itself perfectly.

  14. gobsmacked 14

    Radio Live, 8.20 a.m.

    Marcus Lush asks Shane Jones about the polls. A great opening to push last night’s Morgan poll. To reverse the narrative that took hold on Sunday.

    And Jones says nothing. He blathers on about something else entirely.

    You cannot blame the MSM when they give you a free hit and you then ignore them.

    I don’t ask for miracles. Just competence.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      You’re making me cry

    • DavidW 14.2

      Gobsmacked: The logical conclusion to draw from that would be that you are looking in the wrong place for competence.

      The definition of futility goes something like – doing the same thing time after time and each time expecting a different outcome.

      Brick walls and foreheads are not compatable.

    • felix 14.3

      Jesus. He didn’t even know about the most recent poll, so he changed the subject.

      That bears repeating: In a interview with a major media outlet, in an election campaign, a senior MP doesn’t know the result of the most recent poll.

      What exactly are his secret powers again? His contribution to date appears to be putting on a poncy voice and masturbating.

      Time he was put out to pasture.

      • marty mars 14.3.1

        Tautoko. He also does a distainful look that combines ‘there’s some dogshit on my shoe and you, at the other end of the camera, put it there’.

        • felix 14.3.1.1

          Ha, he does too! I have no idea why he was ever touted as some kind of “great brown hope” for Labour.

  15. interesting 15

    Funny how the other polls didnt matter cos they were BEFORE the CGT tax announcement so shouldnt be read in to……and yet here is another poll taken BEFORE the CGT tax announcement…..and because it shows the left doing well it can be trusted???

    This is the problem when people dismiss a poll that is bad for “their side” with excuses….which then get totally ignored when a poll goes in favour of their team….

    • r0b 15.1

      Did you actually read the post?  I’m guessing not:

      It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends. 

  16. Something puzzling with the numbers:

    The gap between National and ACT v Labour and Green is gradually narrowing. It’s at 12% this time, which means if 6% of people change their minds, we have a change of government.

    If 6% changed from National to Labour:
    National go from 49% to 43%
    Labour go from 33.5% to 39.5%

    National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.
    Would Greens risk their first real coalition with a runner up party?

    Anyway these numbers are:
    – at the low end of National’s recent range
    – at the high end of Labour’s range
    – unlikely to simply shift from National to Labour, Act, NZ First and Maori are at least as likely to pick up soft National votes, and NZ First and Maori and Greens are at least as likely to pick up soft Labour votes.

    It’s far too soon to worry about the seating arrangements in parliament.

    • Ianupnorth 16.1

      The greens have principals against working with environmental criminals, there would little chance of them hopping into bed with a mob intent on mining everywhere and drilling for oil.

    • Rich 16.2

      National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.

      MYTH!

      The government is formed by the leader that can get a majority of MPs and win a confidence motion in parliament. It doesn’t matter if that leader’s own party got 30% or 49%.

      • It might matter to voters, and I’m sure that’s in the minds of the parties, especially the small ones who have ambitions for being more than a one term coalition party. Greens in particular seem very cautious about how they are seen to associate.

        But…this hasn’t been tested in an election since Peters jumped for baubles, although the Maori Party are facing judgement of a similar but different kind from joining the biggest party but at odds with it’s electorates.

        • felix 16.2.1.1

          It matters in the minds of National, hence it’s flung from the tongue of Pete George.

          More “everyone must support the biggest party” bullshit from one-party-pete.

        • Lanthanide 16.2.1.2

          Your statement doesn’t make logical sense anyway.

          Consider this scenario: Party A gets 45% of the seats, Party B gets 40% of the seats and Party C gets 11% of the seats.

          A + C or B + C will get sufficient seats to form a government.

          Party C knows this.

          If Party A gets “first choice”, they go talk to Party C and Party says “get screwed, we’re only going to work with Party B”. How does Party A getting “first choice” affect the results of the election at all?

          Now, if Party C liked A and B equally, it would be in their interests to say “sorry B, but A just got more votes than you” and choose party A. But this is entirely up to Party C whether they do this.

          Trying to impose any sort of rule in the process is meaningless anyway because this is effectively a market with A and B competing for C’s affection, and C could just say “yes, we considered A first and then rejected it” and they would still be abiding by the rules, even if in their heart of hearts they never planned to go with A anyway.

          • felix 16.2.1.2.1

            You’re absolutely correct.

            If Pete rejects your logic, he will have to admit that couched in his “first rights at forming a coalition” is the totalitarian idea that the largest party has more right to form a coalition than several small parties.

          • Carol 16.2.1.2.2

            Also, Labour are saying before the election that they would go into coalition with the Greens. People will know that when they make their choices on election day, just as voters will know that National & Act are joined_at_the_hip_factions_of_the_same_party.

          • Secret Squirrel 16.2.1.2.3

            I’m aware there are not and there can’t be specific rules on the formation of a government. I presume the partys have some sort of convention worked out, but there’s nothing to stop some parties ignoring that.

            But I imagine many voters (apart rom those desparate for power) could get very irate if a party with a clear lead (in seats) was sidelined by some minor parties, and they’d be likely to punish it at the next election.

            Eg on current polling, if the seats went something like:
            National 56
            Act 2
            UF 1
            Labour 40
            Green 15
            Maori 5
            Mana 1

            felix, you’re just being a nob if you try to paint this as pro National, it would apply to whatever party got the most votes.

            • Lanthanide 16.2.1.2.3.1

              Have a look at how the Lib Dems are fairing in the UK where it they are C and conservatives are A.

              Turns out the public aren’t very happy at C. C was screwed either way.

            • felix 16.2.1.2.3.2

              No Pete, it applies to neither party because it simply doesn’t apply.

              The largest party does not get to dictate negotiations by rule or by convention.

              Ignorance or lies, makes no difference. You’re full of shit either way.

          • mikesh 16.2.1.2.4

            The point is that if both B and C say they can’t support A because of the policies A espouses, then A simply can’t form a government no matter what. This doesn’t seem like something the general population would have difficulty understanding.

            • Colonial Viper 16.2.1.2.4.1

              You guys still giving SS the time of day?

              • McFlock

                While it’s fun calling him a shallow arrogant party hack masquerading as a stupid fuckwit, the trouble is that if everybody refuses to give SS the time of day he’ll complain that the “left” (apparently following instructions from the Global Left Politburo) “refuses to engage in civil debate”.

                A bit like some of the AGW climate change deniers. As one commentator I read put it, jerks like SS have an idea that “Baby’s First Cartesian Doubt” counts as civil debate.

              • Lanthanide

                I only replied because it’s a common but stupid line that right-tards like to spout. I was more doing it for the purposes of having it on record than wanting to educate SS/PeteG.

                Probably should have gone with party Apple, Banana and Cherry though, to help out with their little minds that can’t cope with abstract ideas.

                • burt

                  I only replied because it’s a common but stupid line that right-tards like to spout.

                  I don’t think that’s right. It’s the line the party who is currently polling the highest likes to spout. It was also that proven liar’s Winston’s position that he would work with the party who had the most votes first. That kind of popularised the issue as Winston’s inclined to do because having no substance he needs a way to sell his BS.

                  • Probably burt, there is no defined protocol for how coalitions are to be formed, the official line is “leave it to the politicians”.

                    Of course the party with the most seats will push their case as priority. And I don’t doubt Labour would promote themselves as having top shot at it if they got the most seats.

                    If two leading parties have a similar number of seats I think it wouldn’t matter, it would come down to which parties can agree to a coalition.

                    But if the biggest party had significantly more seats and was sidelined from coalition negotiations by a bunch of smaller parties it would be interesting to see how voters would react. It might all depend on how well the coalition held together – there would almost certainly be increased pressure and tension between parties.

                    • felix

                      You still haven’t said what “having top shot” means in reality though.

                      Do you mean others would be somehow obliged to deal with them?

                      If that’s not what you mean, then what?

    • felix 16.3

      “National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.”

      Complete bullshit.

      “It’s far too soon to worry about the seating arrangements in parliament.”

      Only accurate sentence you’re likely to write all day.

    • Lazy Susan 16.4

      National are still clearly in front, so should have first rights at forming a coalition.

      Just been waiting for that old chestnut to surface. Looks like the right wing trolls are getting rattled already. As Rich says it’s about which leader can put together a coalition government that guarantees confidence and supply.

    • Reality Bytes 16.5

      The real issue of the day is if Act wish to retain any iota of credibility and put forward the possibility that they will work with Labour over Nats, if Labour has more compatible policy than the Nats.

      At the moment they just seem to be the National-B option party. They have no point of distinction and will compromise their values just to be seen as a ‘righty’ party. If you are a Nact supporter, why on earth would you vote for them, considering it may be a wasted vote if they don’t get in?

      If they had any concerns about their credibility, they would say: ‘we will work with the party that best supports our core values’ Not a vote for us equals a vote for the Nats. Oh and by the way we think the Nats are dicks, so don’t vote for them, vote for us, because we are oh so desperate for votes+survival.

      Act’s core principles are for smaller government and less tax burden. Last I checked it was Labour that actually had a lower tax rate strategy overall, not National.

      If Act want to portray themselves as hypocrits and be the National-lite party, then yeah it may get them 2 or 3 seats this time round, but political oblivion awaits them in 2014.

  17. Rich 17

    Why do they ask questions in polls that don’t actually relate to our electoral system?

    There isn’t a box on election day for preferred PM and there isn’t a box for satisfaction with the previous government. Has anyone ever found a correlation between these questions and either voting intentions or actual voting – do they give a better correlation to votes, or do they forerun them (I suspect not, or we’d have heard)?

    About all they do tell us is that Labour would be doing way better with (insert person other than Goff or any other frontbencher who’s been around more than one term here).

  18. ak 18

    Winne v. ACT is interesting.

    Zero/negative MSM cover v. MSM satufellation and the most potent political card in history. Yet neck and neck still. With the ACT scrotum empty, Winnie primed and well into foreplay.

    Take the Maori Party percentage off the Right. They’ll never enable a NAT-led govt. At worst they’d repeat the ’08 arrangement for more crumbs (for which we should all be thankful, or it would’ve been three years of a nasty psychoACT tail wagging the Key puppy), at best a Maori-Mana combo for the Left.

    Accept that Banks will win Epsom. Every gold-plated fibre of the massive NACT/msm machine will be devoted to it.

    The asset-sales leaflets are working. Crank up those presses and oil up those bikes, brothers and sisters, and Phil: talk hard and long with Winnie. If Nicey can french kiss ACThorroids with msm impunity, you can seduce an old flame. There’s heavy angst in the air: it could be Hels/Jim and ’99 all over again.

  19. Deadly_NZ 19

    When the NATS have a good poll the MSM shout it from the rooftops. When Labour get a good poll NOTHING. WTF.

      • gobsmacked 19.1.1

        When the NATS have a good poll the MSM shout it from the rooftops. When Labour get a good poll NOTHING..

        No. When the Nats have a good poll … the NATS shout it from the rooftops. That’s why it’s in the MSM. The media have to be fed (i.e. spun). That’s how it works.

        On Monday “No Right Turn” had a story on the Brownlee/ Shipley remuneration scandal in Christchurch. It was then picked up as the lead story on TV One news. That’s due to one person, no resources, no team, no party machine, no salary – just a blogger who did some hard work.

        It says a great deal about Labour’s performance that after nearly 24 hours, DPF has now commented on the poll on his Stuff blog, and Labour have still not said a thing. I’ll repeat that – a positive poll for Labour, and it’s the guy from the other side who gets in the media first! (If it had been a good poll for National, it would have taken DPF five minutes).

        For Labour, ‘Communications Failure’ is an understatement.

  20. Colonial Viper 20

    I’ve crunched the numbers and things are looking stronger for National since late March 2011, when compared with the totality of the opposition parties as according to Roy Morgan.

    In fact National’s base support has firmed and is up around the same levels as they were sitting at in Q4 2009.

    Their asset sale plans, the implosion of ACT and general incompetence in the management of Christchurch have had no lasting negative impact on them at all vis a vis the Roy Morgan.

    Not good.

    The only upside is that public confidence in them as a Government is waning in a real way, again per the Roy Morgan. The juxtaposition is worth thinking about.

  21. randal 21

    I never crunched no numbers. I just talk to people and it seems like they have had enough of a government that promised everything and did nothing.

    • Colonial Viper 21.1

      Yeah I’ve talked to a lot of people like that too.

      Question: did they go on and issue statements of support for Labour or for the Greens.

      Because its clear that although ‘Confidence in the Government’ is falling (which reflects your anecdotal experience), the ‘Opposition Parties’ are not benefitting from it one whit.

  22. fabregas4 22

    Lots of talk about TV1 and TV3 polls. This one, the Roy Morgan appears to be the most impartial. can anyone comment on this?

  23. I think a clue to the variance between the two polls is the don’t know/won’t respond count.

    I heard that the TV1 poll had a 14% don’t know — huge! Roy Morgan reports 8.5%.

    • McFlock 23.1

      14% don’t know? NACT better hope they don’t make up their mind to vote left this time around.

      • queenstfarmer 23.1.1

        And Labour better hope they don’t vote right. Very often it is the “undecided voter” who decides elections. Even after months of campaining, they still don’t know. I’m quite convinced that many of these people are the types who are swayed by whoever’s hoarding they last saw, or which party has the prettiest logo, or which ad had the catchy tune, etc.

        • mik e 23.1.1.1

          Or who had the dirtiest campaign

        • felix 23.1.1.2

          “Very often it is the “undecided voter” who decides elections.”

          Not at all. Their vote has precisely the same influence on the result as that of someone who decided months or years ago. Take either vote out of the total and you’ll notice that the result changes by exactly the same amount.

          “I’m quite convinced that many of these people are the types who are swayed by whoever’s hoarding they last saw…”

          Yes, I too suspect this.

    • lprent 23.2

      It was

      “UNDECIDED VOTERS” figures (previously unreleased) from ONE NEWS COLMAR BRUNTON POLL last night

      Party Vote 8% Down 3% (from May Poll)
      Electorate Vote 14% Down 2% (from May Poll)

      Sourced from Andi Brotherson’s e-mail that gets sent to the standards e-mail. The Morgan poll is just party voters, so the 8% vs 8.5% is pretty similar.

      Of course it doesn’t count the people who don’t have land-lines, don’t list their landline number (like me), and don’t answer their landline unless they know the caller id (like me). Since electorates range from having 35% landlines to households to 90% throughout the country with some pretty obvious demographic biases, I think that they are largely measuring political intentions amongst those conservative enough to have a listed phone line and to answer it.

  24. rod 24

    Don’t think we will see Roy Morgan’s poll results on any of the TV news channels tonight or any time soon.

  25. William Watson 25

    As a fiscally conservative voter (ie, I like balanced budgets on average) I think Labour never looked so good. But I don’t think my feelings are widespread yet.

  26. I’ve recieved the results of the latest Horizon polling. It makes for interesting reading…

    http://fmacskasy.blogspot.com/p/political.html

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    Labour | 04-09
  • Candles out on teachers’ slice of birthday cake
    Today may be Novopay’s second birthday, but there’s little to celebrate, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Novopay has cost the taxpayer tens of millions of dollars already, and the cost is still climbing....
    Labour | 04-09
  • National’s blatant broadband pork barrelling misses the mark by a country...
    National’s blatant pork-barrelling ICT announcement today should reinforce a growing sceptical electorate’s view that they are all about the gift wrap and not the present, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Instead of addressing the real issues - the woeful...
    Labour | 04-09
  • More evidence of the need to clean up the system
    The latest release of emails and messages between disgraced Minister Judith Collins and blogger Cameron Slater are more evidence of the urgent need to clean up politics, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. "This new evidence confirms a near constant flow...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Labour commits to stable funding for voluntary sector
    A Labour Government will establish long-term funding and streamline contract accountability for community and voluntary groups, says Labour’s spokesperson for the sector Louisa Wall. Announcing Labour’s policy for the community and voluntary sector, she said this would give much greater...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Better trained and skilled workforce under Labour
    Labour is committed to a skilled workforce that benefits businesses as well as their workers, and will increase workplace training to improve productivity and drive innovation, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Labour believes the Government should support New Zealanders into...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will make renting a better option
    Labour will provide greater security of tenure for renters, and build more state and social housing, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour believes every kid deserves a decent start in life. That means a warm, dry and secure home....
    Labour | 03-09
  • At least 15 new taxes under National
    John Key is the last person to talk about creating taxes, presiding over a Government that has imposed at least 15 new taxes, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “John Key tried a novel line in the debate last night claiming...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will strengthen New Zealand’s democracy
    A Labour Government will act quickly to protect and enhance New Zealand’s reputation as one of the most open and least corrupt countries in the world, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The health of any democracy is improved by greater...
    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement says tax cut on GST must be first priority – Minto
    “If Prime Minister John Key has money available for tax cuts then cutting GST must be the first priority”,  said MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson John Minto. GST is a nasty tax on low-income families”, said Minto. “People in the...
    Mana | 02-09
  • The Maori Party’s Mana-Enhancing Relationship with National – Minto
    “First we had Cameron Slater and David Farrar backing Labour’s Kelvin Davis bid to unseat MANA Movement Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira.  Now we have Slater writing a pro-Te Ururoa Flavell article on his website, Whale...
    Mana | 02-09
  • Hang tight everyone – Marama Davidson campaign reflection
    To the many people who had expressed their overwhelming support for me to enter Parliament this election – thank you. That the Greens held steady in a big loss for progressive politics is an achievement. We are hopeful that after...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • New flag for NZ once Key signs TPPA
    New flag for NZ once Key signs TPPA...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • Reflecting on Elections Past
    There are a number of past elections that can give the left in New Zealand guidance and hope. Two major points though. Major parties require leaders who can bridge the political divide through strength of personality, vision of what it...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – The Reptile Room
    I stress, at the outset, that I’ve got nothing against reptiles. Some of my best friends are reptiles. Some say I am one, but I’m not really. I just emulate that ability to sit, stationary for hours in court, eyes...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • The success of right-wing counter messaging in the election
    One of the reasons National won the election was due to its success in counter messaging – and the way so many media commentators ran with th the right-wing spin. Here are some examples. Dirty Politics The original message was...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • New Flag competition
    New Flag competition...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • No time for self-pity
    After 23 meetings across the largest non-Maori electorate in the country – almost all of which went fantastically, approx 4,500km on the odometer, positive MSM and social media coverage, and polling well, I admit my team and I headed to...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • The 30 second speech that could have saved the Moment of Truth
    As the dust settles and we struggle to understand what the bloody hell happened on Saturday, many point to Kim’s failure at the Moment of Truth to present his evidence. I think that Kim was poorly advised and that politics requires a...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • Internet MANA and the 2014 election
    It was always going to be a hard task for Hone Harawira to hold onto his Te Tai Tokerau seat when the political establishment united in a coalition to defeat him and the chance for Internet MANA to bring more...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Unity in Action
    Yes the Left have taken a drubbing, but never mind, time to pick ourselves up off the floor, patch up our wound pride, dust ourselves off, cast around for our friends and allies, and re-enter the fray. Lots of work...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • A Fiji democratic mandate for the coup leader – what now for the media?
    Attorney-General Sayad-Khaiyum and Rear-Admiral (Ret) Voreqe Bainimarama’s Fiji First party is poised to lead the country in the next four years. Photo: Mads Anneberg, an AUT Pacific Media Centre student on internship in Suva with Repúblika Magazine and Pacific Scoop...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • Why I voted Labour and why 2017 will be different
    As a 3nd and 5th generation Kiwi-Indian (depending on which side of the family we have to go with), my relationship with New Zealand is a special one. Like other New Zealanders who are not of the Caucasian variety, the...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Humble Pie
    Oh. My. God. This was a heartbreaking nightmare. I was wrong, horribly, horribly, horribly wrong. I honestly believed that the resources, the media attention, the vile toxic politics exposed by Dirty Politics and the mass surveillance lies would have seen...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Election 2014; A Post-mortem; a Wake; and one helluva hang-over
    .   . It would be fair to say that the results for Election 2014 did not go as anticipated. The Left has had a drubbing – and some of it was of our own making. In other aspects, there...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Voting turnout affected by bad weather?
    . . NZ, Upper Hutt, 20 September –  Cold, wet weather in the Hutt Valley, north of Wellington may be impacting on voter turn-out. A head-count of people visiting the Trentham School Voting Station in Moonshine Rd, Upper Hutt, indicated...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Final total of advance voting
    And the final total for the advance voting was a staggering 717,579 advance votes against 334,558 in 2011       Tonight, I’ll be watching the TV3 election coverage because I could bare Paul Henry’s smugness one inch more than Mike Hosking’s...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Vice article on NZ election
    Here is my Vice article on the NZ election....
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • The attempt to kill off Internet MANA
    It’s the last day of campaigning today and the long list of those attacking Internet MANA got longer yesterday with Winston Peters backing Labour candidate Kelvin Davis against the MANA Movement’s Hone Harawira. Davis is now supported by Labour, National,...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • A final word on the election – it’s now all up to you
    Brothers & Sisters, the fate of Aotearoa is now all in your hands. We here at the Daily Blog have thrown everything we can at this bloody Government and have spent every waking hour of this campaign trying to highlight...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • I can’t tell what is National Party advert and what is the NZ Herald – ...
    I can’t tell what is National Party advert and what is the NZ Herald – but then again, I never could...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • TVNZ election coverage – white people telling other white people why Nati...
    TVNZ election coverage – white people telling other white people why National Party is great...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • REVIEW: Royals of Kihikihi
    What an absolutely stunning show.  I had to ask twice to check I’d heard right that this is the first staged production for Samuel Christopher, who also played a raw, real, but vulnerable, Wolf Royal, home from London for his...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • 800 Cops to detain 15 ‘terrorists’ – why Australia’s hysterical Isl...
    I’m sorry but I can’t take this current Australian terror threat seriously. 800 cops to detain 15 people and arrest one of them? A week after Abbot decides to send in Australian forces to the cluster fuck of Iraq, suddenly...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Unbelievable corruption inside Government to attack Kim Dotcom
    The corruption inside this Government just more and more filthy – we now have an ex-Customs Lawyer quitting  after being told to bury information that could embarrass the Government, specifically to do with Kim Dotcom… Curtis Gregorash said he was told...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Everyone Loves A Win-Win That Keeps G...
      Permit me to quote some figures at you… -68% of New Zealanders think political news on television focuses too much on politicians’ personalities and not enough on real issues. This is the key result of a recent UMR survey commissioned by...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, another week of ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, another week of being the most in demand broadcaster in the country...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • EXCLUSIVE: Te Tai Tokerau independent poll (44% Hone-27% Kelvin) vs Maori T...
    The Te Tai Tokerau Maori TV poll on Monday this week painted a bleak picture for Internet MANA supporters, and it’s results have been seized upon by Labour, NZ First and even the Maori Party (who seem set once again...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The time for TPPA weasel words is over
    Almost every day of the election campaign there has been a policy announcement that would potentially run foul of what I understand is currently in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA):  more constraints on foreign investment or investors … regulation of...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • MELTDOWN – Maori Party turns on their own Te Tai Tokerau candidate – ag...
    The tensions are building in Te Tai Tokerau with the Maori Party on the verge of meltdown. Days out from the election, the Maori Party Executive has tried to heavy their own Te Tai Tokerau Electoral Committee and their own candidate, Te Hira Paenga,...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • We Can Change this Government
    We Can Change this Government – Mike Treen at the First Union stop work election meeting...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Election 2014: For and Against
    With the general election tomorrow, we have had a very noisy campaign but little sign that the electorate wishes for a fundamental change of governmental direction. This reflects in part the fact that the economic cycle is close to its decadal...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Eye To Eye Uploaded: Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury
    This interview was filmed a couple of weeks ago between Willie Jackson and myself, I was a tad off with my prediction of NZ First....
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The Donghua Liu Affair – The Players Revealed
      . . – Special investigation by Frank Macskasy & ‘Hercules‘ Speculation that the Beehive office of Immigration Minister, Michael Woodhouse, was behind the release of a letter linking Labour leader, David Cunliffe, with controversial Chinese businessman, Donghua Liu, is...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • As if you needed another reason to boycott Telecom/Spark – they sold NZ d...
    It should read ‘never stop spying’. As if you needed another reason to boycott Telecom/Spark – they sold us down the river to the US by allowing the Southern Cross cable to be tapped… The ability for US intelligence agencies...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The NZ First-Labour Party attack strategy against Internet MANA better work
    The final days of the campaign are ticking down and Labour and NZ First are manoeuvring to kill off the Internet MANA Party by both backing Kelvin Davis for Te Tai Tokerau. It’s a risky gambit that they better pray to Christ...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Bill English’s latest insult to beneficiaries – apparently they are lik...
    National’s hatred towards the poor continues unabated as National desperately try to throw raw meat to their reactionary voter base in the hope to inspire enough hate and loathing to win back their redneck voters from the Conservative Party and from...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Eminem ain’t happy with John Key
    Eminem ain’t happy with John Key...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Key claims he did not inhale
    Key claims he did not inhale...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Final prediction on election result 2014
    What an election campaign. The character assassination of David Cunliffe kicked things off with the Herald on Sunday falsely claiming $100 00 bottles of wine, $15 000 books and $150 000 in donations  from a donor that turned out to be...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Live blog: Bainamarama takes commanding lead in Fiji elections
      Interview with Repúblika editor Ricardo Morris and Pacific Scoop’s Mads Anneberg. PACIFIC SCOOP TEAM By Ricardo Morris, Mads Anneberg, Alistar Kata and Biutoka Kacimaiwai in Suva WHILE the results are provisional at this stage, it is clear today that...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • 5AA Australia: NZ Elections Two Days To Go! + Edward Snowden + Julian Assan...
    Recorded live on 18/09/14 – Captured Live on Ustream at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/multimedia-investments-ltd 5AA Australia’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulletin: Across The Ditch. This week, they discuss the latest news as New Zealanders go to the polls on...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What has Colin Craig done for his Press Secretary to quit 2 days before ele...
    This is VERY strange.  Colin Craig’s Press Secretary Rachel McGregor, has quit 2 days before the election, allegedly telling ZB that Colin Craig was a “very manipulative man”. I’ve met Rachel many times in the past as Colin’s Press Secretary, she is...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” – A brief w...
    “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” said Key in the final leaders debate. Problem of course is that the 250 000 – 285 000 children living in poverty can not afford steak, milk, butter, eggs...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • National’s final bash of beneficiaries before the election
    On cue, whenever National feel threatened, they roll out a little bennie bash just to keep their redneck voter base happy. Nothing like a bit of raw meat policy to keep National voters focused on the evil threat solo parents...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • With All Of This In Mind, I Vote
    This is my last blog before the election and I really just want to speak from the heart. Right now in this country it seems to me that a lot of people consider the “essentials” in life to be simply...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Left has to vote strategically this election
    The dedication, loyalty, and tribalism of party politics means that sometimes the left lets itself down by not voting strategically. We all want our favoured party to get maximum votes, naturally, but the winner-takes-all approach doesn’t always suit multi-party left...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Dear NZ – as you enter the polling booth, stand up for your rights
    The last days before a NZ general election are a busy time as politicians make their pitch and party activists prepare to get out the vote. It is sort of weird watching from the distance of Europe the strangest election...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What is Waihopai, John, if it isn’t a facility for “mass surveillance...
    John Key assured us on RNZ’s Nine to Noon programme yesterday that “In terms of the Fives Eyes data bases… yes New Zealand will contribute some information but not mass wholesale surveillance.” How does this square with the operation of the...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Mass Surveillance and the Banality of E...
    Renowned journalist and intellectual Hannah Arendt coined the phrase “the banality of evil” to describe the normalisation of genocide in Nazi Germany. I thought of her phrase when I was listening to Glenn Greenwald and other international whistle-blowers talking about...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Election. Down. To. The. Wire
    Funny how last week it was John Key winning by 50%, now it’s neck and neck. I have always believed this election would be down to the wire and it is proving so. The flawed landline opinion polls the mainstream...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Reward offered in latest seal shooting
    It is with shock and dismay that our organization learns of the latest shooting of a New Zealand fur seal, this one on Stewart Island. This is the third such crime to reach our attentions since May this year and...
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • Taxpayers Forgotten in Ministerial Horse-Trading
    Responding to the Prime Minister’s comments reported on Radio New Zealand , that he is considering giving Act MP David Seymour a ministerial role because “When they have more staffing and resources as a result of a junior ministerial role...
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • Labour’s Defeat Points to a Forgotten Target Market
    With the devastating defeat for the Labour Party in the election, Labour seems to have lost touch with what resonates with New Zealanders....
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • Cunliffe may survive year but doomed by end of 2015
    NZ First is expected to take one seat off Labour once special votes are counted, maintaining the election-night result that John Key’s National Party will be able to govern alone, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders...
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • Making All New Zealand the Place Talent Wants to Live
    The development of the provinces is becoming a major issue for New Zealand, and for the new Government. Television New Zealand’s Sunday programme (21 September) addressed the plight of towns such as Whanganui, where jobs and populations are declining....
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • China’s booming torture trade revealed
    The flourishing trade, manufacture and export of tools of torture by Chinese companies is fuelling human rights violations across Africa and Asia, new research by Amnesty International and the Omega Research Foundation reveals....
    Scoop politics | 23-09
  • President Obama Congratulates Key
    The President called Prime Minister Key late last evening to congratulate him on his third electoral victory....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Seven Pasifika MPs elected – highest number ever
    AUCKLAND ( Pacific Media Watch / The New Zealand Herald ): The highest number of Pasifika MPs elected in New Zealand's history were voted in at the weekend general election....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • LGNZ congratulates National
    LGNZ congratulates National Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) congratulates re-elected Prime Minister John Key and the National led government on winning their third consecutive term following Saturday’s general election. LGNZ President Lawrence Yule acknowledges...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • The Letter – 22 September 2014
    John Key’s win is historic. In the history of MMP elections – worldwide – ever – no government has won an absolute majority. MMP was imposed on Germany to make sure that country never had another Hitler. It is designed...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Election Coverage – None Better Than Trans Tasman
    To get a steer on what was going to happen in the election - away from the histrionics of the mainstream coverage - the best place to go was The Main Report Group’s weekly political report Trans Tasman....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Federated Farmers intemperate
    For the second time in a week Federated Farmers has made intemperate and provocative comments on environmental issues, says EDS....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • MP’s Stolen Items Recovered
    Following a complaint to Parliamentary Services today [ September 19 ], items which had been stolen from NZ First MP Andrew Williams’ Wellington parliamentary office have been recovered and returned....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Election results bad news for those on benefits
    Beneficiary Advocate Kay Brereton says, “ The election result holds no good news for people on benefits, National campaigned successfully with their beneficiary bashing agenda, and will now believe their punitive treatment of beneficiaries has the support...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Opportunity to progress water infrastructure
    “National’s re-election is an opportunity to develop the infrastructure New Zealand needs to provide surety of water for agriculture, town drinking water supply, waterways, recreational use and to future proof the country from climate change,” says Andrew...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Wellington City joins the global call for 100% clean
    At 1:00 pm, residents and visitors of Wellington gathered at the summit of Mt Victoria to join the millions strong call for a 100% clean future....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Hikoi with us from Cape Reinga to Auckland Oil Conference!
    Monday 22 September 2014: Maori from different tribal areas along the western length of Northland are organising a hikoi starting on Saturday to a Government oil conference in Auckland to make sure that Norwegian oil giant Statoil gets the message:...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls
    Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls National re-elected to third term with record high vote as Labour slumps to worst result in over 90 years...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • National-led Government wins mandate for RMA reforms
    An unprecedented increase in support for the third-term National Party, the best electoral performance since 1899, has delivered a clear mandate for reform of the Resource Management Act says Federated Farmers. “Vital reforms to the RMA have...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • New Zealand says no to Culture of Death
    Right to Life is pleased that the people of New Zealand have rejected a culture of death by refusing to elect a Labour/Green government that supported the decriminalisation of abortion....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – Steven Joyce
    CORIN Steven Joyce if we could start with how things are going to look now with your support partners. Can you just run us through, National can technically govern alone on what you’ve got at the moment, do you think...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – Kelvin Davis
    SUSAN Well earlier this morning, just before we came to air in fact, Corin spoke to Kelvin Davis, one of the big winners of the night, the new MP for Te Tai Tokerau....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – David Cunliffe
    CORIN Joining me now is Labour Leader, David Cunliffe. Good morning to you Mr Cunliffe. This is a tough result for Labour, how much personal responsibility do you take for this....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Grey Power congratulates Key
    Grey Power National President Terry King congratulated John Key for his party’s “resounding win “ in yesterday’s election and hoped that the new National Government would look hard at issues affecting the ever–growing number of older New Zealanders....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • EMA congratulates PM John Key and National
    The Employers and Manufacturers Association extend hearty congratulations to the re-election of Prime Minister John Key and National....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Helen Clark Receives Inaugural Women’s Health Rights Award
    Helen Clark was honoured as the first recipient of the Women’s Health Rights Award at the 121st Woman’s Suffrage event held in Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • National deal with New Zealand First unlikely
    The National party is unlikely to offer a confidence and supply agreement to New Zealand First according to Dr Ryan Malone, Director Training and Research at Civicsquare....
    Scoop politics | 20-09
  • Daily Election Update #12: NZ First to hold balance of power
    Winston Peters’ NZ First Party will hold the balance of power after tomorrow’s election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Mr Peters is then expected to back a National-led...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Election Day is Time to Refocus on Policies
    Over the course of this election campaign there has been a lot of focus on dirty politics and spying, and not a lot on policy. With election day looming, Gareth Morgan is calling for people to refocus on the issues....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • The Kiwi FM Alternative Election Commentary
    Saturday 20 September from 7pm on 102.2 Auckland, 102.1 Wellington, 102.5 Canterbury, or KiwiFM.co.nz...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Beneficiary Bashing unacceptable
    Kay Brereton of the Beneficiary Advocacy Federation of New Zealand says “ the comment made by Bill English yesterday comparing beneficiaries to crack addicts is shocking and incredibly poorly timed.”...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • UN Experience Beneficial
    Acclaim Otago representatives have just completed their participation at the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disability examination of the New Zealand government in Geneva, Switzerland. "It was an interesting two days which we believe has...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Changing face of NZ should be reflected in newsrooms
    With Fairfax Media’s Journalism Intern search closing on Sunday, Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy is urging aspiring journalists from Maori, Pacific and ethnic communities to apply. The deadline was recently extended to 10pm, Sunday...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • SPCA expresses concern over toxin in waterways
    Ric Odom CEO of Royal NZ SPCA has expressed concern over the toxic poison 1080 entering waterways, but DoC, Council’s and Ministry of Health have colluded to make it legal....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • NZ 2014 Election Index – 13-18 September
    Below is iSentia’s final weekly Election Index, covering the period 13-18 September and showing the relative amount of coverage of nine Party Leaders in the lead up to the National Election across news media and social media. The methodology used...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Epsom Candidate (Adam Holland) More Liberal Than ACT
    For the past four years I, like 500,000 other New Zealanders, have been illegally smoking cannabis for medicinal purposes and/or even just for the occasional laugh with friends on the weekend. We don't hurt anybody, we don't cause nuisance, we...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Left Coalition Will Save Dolphins
    A left coalition would safeguard both Māui and Hector’s dolphins, as well as revive our inshore ecosystems. Labour, Internet Mana and the Green Party all have strong policies in place for dolphin protection. The Maori Party, and to a certain...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Waihoroi Shortland: Ngāti Hine is not standing alone
    The Chairman of Te Rūnanga a Iwi o Ngāpuhi, Sonny Tau is blowing smoke worthy of a Dotcom rally with claims that Ngati Hine is standing alone in its opposition to Tūhoronuku says the Chairman of Te Rūnanga o Ngati...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Oceania voices on environment loud and strong
    While money and energy continues to be spent on global talks about climate change, Pacific islanders are scrambling to build sea walls out of sticks, stones, shells and coral, to protect their lands and homes from erosion and rising sea...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Prime Time with Sean Plunket – Tonight
    No MPs tonight --- the campaign will be over at 9 30. Instead we will look back --- and possibly forward on what we have learned and what might happen. Listener Political Columnist Jane Clifton Editor in Chief, NZ Herald,...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Election fails to address youth financial wellbeing
    Young people don’t feel included in New Zealand’s financial success and believe inequality is a problem, according to a new survey conducted by Westpac’s Fin-Ed Centre at Massey University....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Winston’s Waffle doesn’t hide the facts
    The Conservative Party is celebrating the ASA's finding announced today that rejected all but one of the complaints raised against its controversial “Conservatives or Peters” pamphlet. “Despite pages of complaints from Peters legal team the only...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • NZ Independent Coalition looking forward to tomorrow
    “Our team is looking forward to tomorrow. It is a real opportunity to reclaim politics for the people,” said NZ Independent Coalition leader Brendan Horan....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Insights Issue 35/2014 – 19 September 2014
    Insights Issue 35/2014 - 19 September 2014 In This Issue • RMA reform the golden unicorn of policy | Jenesa Jeram...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Special voting arrangements made for NIWA crew
    One of the most unusual polling stations for this year’s general election is in the middle of the ocean miles from land. NIWA’s flagship research vessel Tangaroa, has been doubling as a polling booth for crew and scientists at sea....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Tourism operators urged to vote strategically
    Tourism operators should make sure they know their local candidates’ view on tourism and use their vote to support the country’s second largest export industry, says Chris Roberts, Chief Executive, Tourism Industry Association New Zealand (TIA)....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • WGTN: March for free education
    We are students, university staff, and members of the community. Whichever parties form a government after September 20th, we are demanding an end to corporatisation of education....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Evidence of Corruption a National Scandal
    Internet Party leader Laila Harré will take evidence of corruption to international forums if there is not a full Royal Commission to investigate the growing evidence of the systematic use and abuse of democratic institutions and processes for political...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Govt continues to throw money at charter school experiment
    Official documents reveal the three primary sector charter schools approved last week will cost $2 million to set up as well as divert another $1.5 million of potential taxpayer investment from local state schools next year....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • ACT Final Election Rally
    Elections campaigns are an opportunity for political parties to put candidates and policy to enable voters to choose what sort of New Zealand we want. In this campaign there have been three tests by which you can assess the electoral...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
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