Open mike 10/05/2023

80 comments on “Open mike 10/05/2023 ”

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1. Ad 1

   10 May 2023 at 8:23 am

   Now that Trump has been found by a jury to be guilty of sexual assault, will Biden look any more attractive as a candidate?

   Bidens polls are so so bad, can there be any upside or is MAGA contingent largely immovable?
   • Res Publica 1.1

     10 May 2023 at 9:05 am

     The numbers suggest that Trump's support is pretty firm around the 42-45% mark. Good news is that the more he gets into legal trouble, the more that number becomes a ceiling rather than a floor.
     • Phillip ure 1.1.1

       10 May 2023 at 2:53 pm

       Something that isn't mentioned very often amongst all these polls showing support for trump at alarming (to many) levels amongst Republicans..is that neither Republicans nor democrats decide american elections..

       Those who pick the president are the third leg..the independents..

       From memory registered Republicans are about 25% of voters…

       (So trump's support is actually 40+% of 25% of actual voters..meh..!)

       And he had his share of support from those independents when elected…but for some time now trump's support amongst independents has tanked…

       So (to me) the idea of trump getting the republican nomination..is just another meh..!..and will guarantee a democrat+independents victory..

       And all these media stories about trump's support are essentially alarmist bullshit-clickbait if used as a marker to him getting the job again.

       (nb:..the above derives from my general knowledge/memories from studying the american political system..and I am just trying to tell those possibly fretting over those alarmist poll-squealings from the media…and the prospect of the orange clown getting another go…to just go meh..!..)
       • Phillip ure 1.1.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 3:03 pm

         I am actually more alarmed by de santis…and would rather trump than that piece of work..
   • tsmithfield 1.2

     10 May 2023 at 9:11 am

     I just can't get my head around US politics. Given the population of the US, is Trump and Biden really the best they can find to lead their country?

     And Trump looks like he is going to run for the Republicans again even though most polls suggest he will lose. It just doesn't make sense.

     I would rank any of our leaders from either party over the last 20 years as far superior to those who the US have put up in recent times..
     • Craig H 1.2.1

       10 May 2023 at 11:27 am

       I thought Biden was an excellent candidate last time from everyone of either party who put their names forward. Repairing Trump's damage required someone with vast institutional knowledge, and Biden was the best person for that job in my view. Decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP is not exactly a common CV. Given the difficulties in Congress that are usually underappreciated by most, he's done about as much as anyone was likely to.

       That said, the system is so different compared to here, you can't really compare them fairly. Conservative Christians are much bigger part of the electoral base than here, and the Republican Party decided to welcome them in decades ago. The country is huge and there are more powers and politics at city, county and state level, so the state parties are a lot more important than the regions are in NZ. Both major US parties have independent state parties, and often state politics means that US party is a pretty broad church with a lot more overlap than you would think from a presidential campaign.

       If Democrats want to be electable in places like Utah or Texas, for example, they have to be closer to the Republican Party in those areas which means pretty conservative politics at the national level. In somewhere like Vermont where Bernie Sanders is one of their Senators, they have a Republican governor, but to get elected, he has to be closer to the local Democratic Party which means pretty liberal politics at the national level.
       • tsmithfield 1.2.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 11:49 am

         Biden, maybe…. But again? He is struggling now with what appears to be the onset of dementia. How will he be at the end of another term?
         • Craig H 1.2.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 12:13 pm

           Ideally someone else could pick it up, but it's nearly unheard of for a current president to not be renominated if they put their name forward. https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/ has the 5 occasions in the 234 years of presidencies – the most recent is Chester A Arthur in 1884. The only elected president not to be renominated after seeking reelection was Franklin Pierce in 1856 – the other 4 were Vice-Presidents who replaced presidents who had died during office.
           • tsmithfield 1.2.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2023 at 12:15 pm

             As long as he remembers he is running, I guess.
         • tWiggle 1.2.1.1.2

           10 May 2023 at 9:09 pm

           Biden speaks at White House Correspondents' Dinner Apr 30 2023

           Hardly senile. Start from about 6.30, the earlier part is about detained journalists. Well worth the watch.
           • tWiggle 1.2.1.1.2.1

             10 May 2023 at 10:45 pm

             Sorry, the link got stuffed up somehow. Biden speaks at WH Correspondents' dinner.

             I feel you get a good measure of Biden as he works the crowd.
   • Peter 1.3

     10 May 2023 at 9:34 am

     Immovable. Trump can do what he likes and the Ginni Thomas brigade will support him.

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onkrMT4wuJk
   • Sanctuary 1.4

     10 May 2023 at 10:16 am

     What does it say about the GOP and it's rump base that the only candidate they can muster is a superannuiated sex offender and insurrectionist?

     I read at salon.com that this ruling – and Trump's other upcoming legal problems – may act as a bizarre incentive to keep him in the presidential race, since the DOJ will always go softly softly on any presidential candidate.

     Biden's unfavourability rating is almost entirely driven by concerns over his age, he moves like a very old man and he makes very old man mistakes when talking. As long as his campaign can assure voters he is up to the job he'll easily defeat Trump.

     Then roll on AOC for a tilt?
     • The Chairman 1.4.1

       10 May 2023 at 11:30 am

       What are your thoughts on Robert F. Kennedy Jr?
       • Sanctuary 1.4.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 11:35 am

         Evidence that not even Camelot can escape the Hapsburg jaw turning up eventually.
         • Phillip ure 1.4.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 12:17 pm

           Heh…!
           • Shanreagh 1.4.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2023 at 2:01 pm

             Perfect, ha ha apart from the fact that he is a mad anti vaxxer and member of the so-called Disinformation Dozen.

             https://counterhate.com/research/the-disinformation-dozen/

             Who knows what other stuff he supports.

             The jaw may not have 'Hapsburged' but the mind is not on a par with either JFK or RJK.
   • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.5

     10 May 2023 at 2:33 pm

     His supporters will be

     He didn't do it, and if he did do it, it was her fault, and what about Hunter Biden's laptop?
2. tsmithfield 2

   10 May 2023 at 9:07 am

   Luxon has just ruled out working with the Maori Party on ZB.

   Whatever anyone says about the decision, I don't think there is any doubt it is a politically astute move.

   Given that Labour is not really in a position where it can do the same, there is a fairly clear choice for voters now. Especially since there is quite a furore over co-governance at the moment.
   • pat 2.1

     10 May 2023 at 9:16 am

     The turnout number will be of interest…I suspect it will be particularly low
   • AB 2.2

     10 May 2023 at 9:58 am

     Don't know about "astute". Blind Freddy could see that it's the best thing to say – because irritation with TMP and Maori more generally is a core characteristic of your base. And also present at lower intensities outside your base.

     Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office. Luxon would most likely warble away about circumstances bring different back then – at which point a decent interviewer would nail him to the floor by asking "so if circumstances change you might work with them?' Then the vacuous, prattling burbler would cut to his prepared script about "wasteful spending" as a way of escape – and a decent interviewer would cut him short. But hey, journalists, who needs real ones?
     • tsmithfield 2.2.1

       10 May 2023 at 10:07 am

       Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office.

       I guess you have to take the politics of each situation in its context. I think what Key did was a forward thinking move at the time. He didn't actually need TMP when elected. But could see that having them inside the tent could be useful in future elections where he might need their support.

       In this case, I have my doubts that TMP would go with National anyway even if that option was available. So, I don't think there is too much downside for National in ruling them out. And, the politics of the situation are that Labour really can't afford to do the same. So, I think TMP has become a bit of a ball and chain for Labour now.

       It will be interesting to see if National will rule NZ First out as well. This could really mess with voter's heads if they have to consider National/Act versus a possible Labour/Greens/TMP/NZ First coalition.
       • bwaghorn 2.2.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 4:20 pm

         Unfortunately I think it's more than likely the tpm will gift the election to nact. They're coming across as pretty radical
     • RedLogix 2.2.2

       10 May 2023 at 10:08 am

       And the answer to that question is "If the circumstances change, of course I might change with them. If TMP's leadership and policies were to change, then there is a chance to talk with them. But under the current circumstances – we are ruling them out."

       Simples.
       • AB 2.2.2.1

         10 May 2023 at 10:13 am

         Which allows follow-up questions – "Which leaders and policies do you object to" etc. etc. However it ends, you get a decent interview.
       • tsmithfield 2.2.2.2

         10 May 2023 at 10:36 am

         I think TMP is a lot more radical than it was back in the Key times as well.

         I think in the end this will be bad for them. Because, it will end up making them politically untouchable so long as there is wide spread resistance amongst voters to the co-governance concept.

         So, if National wins this time around, I think Labour will have to rule out TMP in future elections due to a coalition involving TMP being seen as politically toxic for centre voters.

         So, they may well end up having a presence in parliament, but never being in the position to achieve anything for their cause.

         It will be interesting to see if National rules out NZ First as well. NZ First have already ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, then there isn't much point in a protest vote to NZ First. Especially since National has already stolen NZ First's thunder by ruling out TMP.
         • Craig H 2.2.2.2.1

           10 May 2023 at 11:59 am

           Not much choice really, TMP base left them before because they supported National too much, to the degree that TMP lost all their MPs. Politically, TMP aren't really in a position to support National on much other than case-by-case legislation.
   • Hunter Thompson II 2.3

     10 May 2023 at 10:29 am

     How strange for Luxon to be so decisive. Maybe there was no fence available for him to sit on?
     • gsays 2.3.1

       10 May 2023 at 6:29 pm

       Pretty slack for a man with potentially 21 boundries.
   • Bearded Git 2.4

     10 May 2023 at 11:52 am

     I just hope NZF gets 4.9 %-all right wing votes wasted because Peters has made it plain he will go with Luxon.
     • tsmithfield 2.4.1

       10 May 2023 at 11:59 am

       That is why I think ruling NZ First out is also a good idea. As I said, NZ First has ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, there isn't any point voting for them.
3. Tiger Mountain 3

   10 May 2023 at 9:19 am

   Fed Farmers go ACT…
   https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/300873696/from-fed-farmers-to-act-party-andrew-hoggard-goes-into-politics

   Oh well, maybe the cholesterol overload will get to Mr Hoggard before he does too much damage! Bacon & eggs for breakfast, T-bone & chips for lunch, Roasted home kill beast for dinner…

   Fed Farmers and their members have long been the filthiest of the dirty filthy tories when it comes down to it–profiting most of all from stolen and dubiously acquired land. They are in denial of post colonial fallout as they pour nitrates into the nation’s waterways via animal excretions from over fertilised industrial dairying operations.

   For a Fed Farmers person to go ACT shows the desperation, the profitability crisis–plus they need cheap migrant labour and cruel live animal exporting and mud bog “winter farming” to keep their rate of profit up. Farmers crisis is a capitalist crisis.
   • Ad 3.1

     10 May 2023 at 9:33 am

     It would be great to see the progressive farmer and horticulture groups coalesce together more often. Federated Farmers don't represent all farmers, and I sneakily suspect they don't represent a majority of them.

     But we won't find that out until more progressive producers are prepared to poke their head above the parapet to face the next version of Howl of a Protest.
     • Sanctuary 3.1.1

       10 May 2023 at 9:50 am

       Fed Farmers is being outflanked on the right by Groundswell, which poses huge problems for the historic alliance between farmers and urban business that is the foundation of the National party.

       The self-radicalisation of the right means there is a real possibility of ACT/Groundswell vying to replace National/Fed Farmers as the majoritry right wing political rural/urban alliance.

       How bleak is that?
       • Jack 3.1.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 9:55 am

         Not nearly as bleak as the coalition of chaos mustering on the left.
         • Sanctuary 3.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 10:05 am

           Thats right, because as they like to constantly remind us, the right always prefers the jackboot of Fascism to the messiness of democracy.
         • AB 3.1.1.1.2

           10 May 2023 at 10:08 am

           We have already seen chaos in Auckland resulting from climate change. And we can see the Nat-ACT boys intend to do nothing about emissions but whistle in the dark and wait for technology to turn up that will allow their farming & business backers to carry on exactly as they are – plus (maybe) some piss-weak concessions to adaptation.

           When we see those things, it's completely clear who the real coalition of chaos is.
         • Patricia Bremner 3.1.1.1.3

           10 May 2023 at 1:15 pm

           Well, the right don't like compromise or community, and see that as communism, so no real surprise that they and you? don't like listening to differing points of view.

           They describe, by creating the "chaos" meme, any MMP coalition of 'other' groups, which are not Nats or Act.

           Luxon thinks we only have one vote apparently, when clearly under MMP we have two.

           There is a disconnect from community showing and a whiff of ‘my way’.imo.
     • Tiger Mountain 3.1.2

       10 May 2023 at 10:42 am

       My partner says that there are growers and farmers that are more 21st century and pro environment but they tend to be smaller producers, and some of them do get covered on the venerable “Country Calendar” these days. I have met a number in the Far North, which is a smallish, long geographic area when we do local markets so not so many baddies perhaps up here. But mid North down…
   • Graeme 3.2

     10 May 2023 at 10:18 am

     Not the first Fed worthy to have a go with ACT. Don Nicolson was ACT candidate in Clutha Southland in 2011 and 2014. He was #3 on ACT list in 2011 and #5 in 2014.

     At an electorate level Nicolson got 796 votes, Tat Loo (Lab) got 5207, Bill cleaned up at 21,327. The same happened in 2014 with Todd Barclay as Nat candidate.

     In both elections Nicolson's personal vote far exceeded ACT's party vote in the electorate.

     OK it's a very different ACT party now but I think this illustrates that coming from a Fed Farmers presidency doesn't automatically translate to general election success.
     • joe90 3.2.1

       10 May 2023 at 10:41 am

       Doubtful Hoggard could be as barking as Nicolson. But ya never know…

       09:11, Jun 30 2011

       Powerful people are manipulating us for their own ends, Don Nicolson believes. And the only way to defeat them is to allow free enterprise to have free rein.

       The retiring president of Federated Farmers is convinced New Zealand is a victim of international job-creation schemes.

       "There are senior people who absolutely know what they're doing," he says. "They've created industries by building complexity into everything. Every time they write something down – when it goes from the head to the paper – that's when we're lost."

       http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/5211126/Free-enterprise-cooks-up-a-tasty-stew
     • bwaghorn 3.2.2

       10 May 2023 at 4:25 pm

       Tat loo, wonder where he's at now, ??
4. joe90 4

   10 May 2023 at 10:05 am

   Remember, tankies, a falling out between thieves delivered the USSR as an accidental ally to the West. Stalin had happily allied with Hitler to over run and divvy up large parts of Eastern Europe and provided fuel and raw materials for Hitler's invasions of Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the fuel to bomb London.

   Anton Shekhovtsov ✚

   @A_SHEKH0VTS0V

   “Victory day” in Russia, celebrating the Soviet occupation of half of Europe

   

   https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1655823472533045249
   • Sanctuary 4.1

     10 May 2023 at 10:36 am

     https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F90c165b4-1438-11eb-bca5-e85774a5f3b9.jpg?crop=3825%2C2152%2C141%2C258
     • joe90 4.1.1

       10 May 2023 at 10:45 am

       
       • Tiger Mountain 4.1.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 11:03 am

         Anti Sovietism remains the territory of vacillators and cowards. Much of the world would be have been “eating Bratwurst for breakfast” if not for the Russian people and their allies of WWII.
         • joe90 4.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 11:43 am

           I'm sure tens of millions of Eastern Europeans were grateful to endure the controlling oppression, forced migration, and ethnic/cultural erasure imposed on them by their post-war colonisers.

           .
         • aj 4.1.1.1.2

           10 May 2023 at 11:49 am

           You cannot understand why Victory Day is the most significant secular holiday in Russia without getting a sense of just how much the Soviet Union lost in the Nazi-Soviet War.

           https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523688487265787906.html
           • joe90 4.1.1.1.2.1

             10 May 2023 at 12:03 pm

             It's a bit of a bastard when things don't work out quite the way you thought they would, eh.
           • Gosman 4.1.1.1.2.2

             10 May 2023 at 12:42 pm

             And the Ukrainians suffered more than most as they were living in the area that much of the fighting took place in and which was occupied for a couple of years by the Nazis.
             • roblogic …

               10 May 2023 at 2:20 pm

               Stalin genocided 5 million Ukrainians in the early 1930s

               https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
           • tsmithfield 4.1.1.1.2.3

             10 May 2023 at 12:59 pm

             Not that they thank the US that provided Russia with vast amounts of equipment including over 11000 planes and 6000 tanks.

             And for all that ant-Nazi talk from Russia, the Russians were very cosy with the Nazis at the start of the war.
         • Gosman 4.1.1.1.3

           10 May 2023 at 12:41 pm

           When you mention allies of the Russian people do you mean Ukrainians?
   • mikesh 4.2

     10 May 2023 at 5:57 pm

     Hitler started off by attacking Russia. I don't think he was thinking of attacking the British and French until Chamberlain declared war. The pact with Russia came about because he realized he would have deal with Western Europe first. Stalin probably went along with it because the respite gave him a chance sort out his own defenses. He probably guessed that Hitler would probably renege.
     • Stuart Munro 4.2.1

       10 May 2023 at 6:44 pm

       Hitler started off by attacking Russia.

       You should do a little reading, friend.

       The invasion of Poland (1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union; which marked the beginning of World War II.
5. Sanctuary 5

   10 May 2023 at 11:15 am

   Great news from Bakhmut, the Ulrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has apparently countrer-attacked and driven the Russians back 2.6km on a 3km front, a big advance in the context of the fighting there.

   I mentioned the unit because it is a very interesting and a very powerful one. Formed from Azov units it is basically a fully mechanised reinforced brigade of three infantry and one tank battalion plus one each of an artillery, drone, and combat engineer battalion.

   Twitter video shows close tank/infantry coooperation in a combined arms assault, which indicates the unit has benefited from western training. There are heaps and heaps of dead Russians in the imagery. Just lately a lot of video and still imagery showing very large numbers of Russian KIA have been showing up online, perhaps indicating the Ukrainians are not only inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian forces but defeating them as well and seizing/retaining control of the battle zone.

   If one well trained and equipped brigade can rout the Wagner forces so thoroughly in a local counter-attack, that has got to be an encouraging sign.
   • Tiger Mountain 5.1

     10 May 2023 at 11:37 am

     US Imperialist and NATO backed…
   • Coventrie 5.2

     10 May 2023 at 11:37 am

     Great news from Bakhmut indeed, and given UA has been conservative in releasing information, potentially even better news than it seems
   • joe90 5.3

     10 May 2023 at 11:59 am

     Read something awhile ago about a NATO peer to peer based estimate that Poots needs 1900 troops /kilometre to hold a fortified front against mechanised and tank divisions that can choose to attack anywhere along the 800 kilometre front.
     • Sanctuary 5.3.1

       10 May 2023 at 12:11 pm

       The Russian have built multiple lines of defense in the occupied regions along the expected axis of any Ukrainian offensive. These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefileds, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers – especially Russian airpower, which the Ukrainians have no answer – to intervene.

       The outcome is not certain at all.
       • Gosman 5.3.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 12:45 pm

         The issue for the Russians is manpower. To effectively defend against an attack that the Ukrainians are looking like putting together requires sufficient manpower in an area of the frontlines of 30 km of around 50 to 90 thousand troops. They can do this in upward of 90 to 100 km of the front. Unfortunately for them they need to do so for 500 km unless they pick exactly the spot the Ukrainians will focus upon.
         • RedLogix 5.3.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 1:08 pm

           I thought Ukraine should ask the Finnish if they could enter Russia via Karelia – encircle St Petersburg – and then negotiate.
           • joe90 5.3.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2023 at 1:20 pm

             Well, the Fins did oblige NATO with another 1,340 kilometers of border to encircle Russia…
       • alwyn 5.3.1.2

         10 May 2023 at 2:45 pm

         " These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefields, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers"

         That sounds rather like the French intentions when they built the Maginot line back before WW 2. How did that work out?
         • Sanctuary 5.3.1.2.1

           10 May 2023 at 4:32 pm

           Nothing like the Maginot line, a closer analogy would be the field works built by the Soviets at Kursk or possibly the Hindenburg line in WW1. The difference with Kursk is the Soviets deployed 1,900,000 men over a 260km front, and the Hindenburg line was 140km long and manned by 20 divisions, around 350-400,000 men.
   • tsmithfield 5.4

     10 May 2023 at 1:15 pm

     Yes, I saw that. Some rather graphic footage. But, good to see the success.

     I have thought for awhile that Bakhmut would be a good place to launch a counter offensive for several reasons:

     Firstly, the Russians are on attack, so won't tend to be as well dug in.

     Secondly, there is a good chance for Ukraine to do a pincer movement by attacking from either side of the flanks, and effectively encircling a lot of Russian and Wagner soldiers.
   • Sanctuary 5.5

     10 May 2023 at 4:23 pm

     Update: this Ukrainian attack saw the combat debut of the Bradley IFV. At least a pair of them were involved and the destroyed at least four BMPs with ease. The BMP is completely outclassed by the Bradley.
6. Molly 6

   10 May 2023 at 11:28 am

   Even if the medical establishment refrain from to doing so, eventually the insurance companies will objectively assess risk:

   https://genderclinicnews.substack.com/p/exposed

   Australian doctors in private practice may come under pressure to cease involvement in medicalised gender change of minors following a landmark insurance decision that stresses the significant risk of litigation.

   “In response to the high risk of claims arising from irreversible treatments provided to those who medically and surgically transition as children and adolescents, [medical indemnity insurer] MDA National is restricting cover for practitioners in private practice,” the insurer says in an email to members with this exposure.

   No payment

   The MDA National email to doctors seeing gender dysphoric youth says: “[From July 1, we] will not cover you or make a payment when the claim against you arises in any way out of your assessment that a patient under the age of 18 years is suitable for gender transition.”

   The insurer, which has 54,000 health professional members, also says it will no longer cover doctors if they face a claim after “initiating prescribing of gender affirming hormones for any patient under the age of 18 years.
   • Incognito 6.1

     10 May 2023 at 8:47 pm

     The risks to the insurer are completely different to any medical risks to the people treated by private physicians. The insurer’s decision was purely commercial and protecting the business, if that’s what you mean with “objectively”.
     • weka 6.1.1

       10 May 2023 at 9:51 pm

       kind of like with climate change. The insurance companies see the writing on the wall before the general public or the professions/industries.
       • Incognito 6.1.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 10:01 pm

         They are socialising the losses/risks to state-funded clinics and hospitals. It is purely a commercial decision. In Oregon, they went the other way, as per the article.
         • weka 6.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2023 at 11:25 pm

           well, yes, obviously the insurance company's motivation is commercial, but the basis for that decision is complex and important social and medical issues. There's an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the overmedicalisation of teens and children. Likewise with climate.

           In Oregon the state is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures. In Australia the insurer is withdrawing cover for surgeons if they are involved in claims from surgery that leaves detrans people with permanent disability (sued or prosecuted, I'm unclear from the article). Two different kinds of insurance.

           The former is ideological against evidence and safe practice. Good to see detransition surgery covered, but it's pretty fucked up to enforce a questionable system and then pay for remedial surgery to try and mitigate the entirely predictable mistakes and damage. My guess is the state is overriding the insurance sector's commercial motivations.

           The latter is the insurance company having watched what is happening with both detrans legal cases internationally, as well as research.
           • Incognito 6.1.1.1.1.1

             11 May 2023 at 8:58 pm

             I think that both Molly and you are conflating different types of risks involved in medical transition for minors. The insurer's decision is based on the risk of legal liability for potential claims arising from unhappy or harmed patients who may sue for malpractice or negligence. This risk is influenced by the strength of evidence for the safety and efficacy of the treatments, the quality of informed consent obtained from the patients and their parents, and the availability of alternative options for addressing gender dysphoria. The insurer's decision is not based on the risk of medical harm to the patients themselves, which is a separate issue that should be evaluated by qualified health professionals on a case-by-case basis.

             You also said that Oregon is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures, but this is not entirely correct. The State of Oregon is requiring insurers to cover gender-affirming treatments that are deemed medically necessary by a health care provider, which may include cosmetic services or revisions to prior treatments. This does not mean that insurers have to cover any procedure that a patient requests, but rather that they have to follow the professional judgment of the provider. This is different from Australia, where the insurer is withdrawing cover for doctors who assess or initiate gender transition for patients under 18, regardless of their professional judgment or the hospital setting. In effect, the Australian insurer is removing the ability of doctors to act on sound clinical judgement.

             Yes, I agree with you that there is an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the over-medicalisation of teens and children, but I also think that there is a danger in relying on insurance companies to determine the standard of care for complex and controversial medical issues. Insurance companies are not neutral judges of scientific evidence or ethical principles; they are profit-driven entities that may have ulterior motives or conflicts of interest. They may also be influenced by political or social pressures, such as transphobic backlash or litigation threats. It seems to me that this might be another cynical ploy in yet another culture war (or is it just one big one?), which is why some appear to be rejoicing at this decision. Only more independent research and better guidelines for health professionals and patients is going to lead to better options for treatment, which includes psychological treatment.
       • Belladonna 6.1.1.2

         10 May 2023 at 10:12 pm

         We've seen this with earthquake cover in Wellington, where properties are unable to get cover, if they are not up to Govt standards. It's an issue with apartments in particular (the complication of strata title, as well as costs being beyond the ability of some residents to pay).

         We're starting to see it with climate risk insurance.

         https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/131169361/owners-of-floodprone-homes-will-pay-more-for-insurance

         And, IMO, the sooner the better. Wealthy people can strong-arm the council with constant legal challenges to get to build what they want to, where they want to. They have no leverage over insurers. If they don't find the risk acceptable, they won't touch it with a barge pole.
   • Shanreagh 6.2

     10 May 2023 at 9:19 pm

     Fair enough. Sensible…..enforces, hopefully, a period of what I call 'watchful waiting' until the person is 18 & over. The rush to transition and also the 'contagion' whereby groups of younger ones find a need to transition may abate by that stage with the move to new friends, moving on, time…….

     To me it doesn't matter how a slow down occurs, whether by sensible society moves or by a withdrawing of insurance cover as long as the current madness is slowed.

     Quote from the article

     ‘A physician who follows the gender clinic controversy told GCN he believed “this whole treatment area [of medicalised gender change for minors] has gone ahead without adequate evidence of, firstly, efficacy, and, secondly, safety’.

     There is good dicussion in the article about the concept that this withdrawal of cover may force the consideration of requests to a multi group of specialists in a hospital setting. This can often include psychiatric help which has been lacking up until now.

     Jordan Peterson who has not been my flavour of the month, has really risen in my estimation with his interviews drawing on his professional knowledge of the mental health and consent aspects.
     • Incognito 6.2.1

       10 May 2023 at 9:55 pm

       The insurer is simply cutting its business risks it’s exposed to, it says so in the article. Anyway:

       “We consider it appropriate that the assessment and initial prescribing for patients transitioning under the age of 18 years occurs with the support and management of a multi-disciplinary team in a hospital setting.”

       […]

       If MDA National stands firm against any transgender activist backlash, and the remaining medical indemnity funds adopt similar carve-outs, the effect would be to concentrate the legal risk in state-funded children’s hospital gender clinics.

       […]

       There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector, but specialist gender clinics in public children’s hospitals have long waiting lists, and trans rights activists have campaigned to mainstream hormonal interventions through local family doctors and hospitals.

       Your hopeful wish for 'watchful waiting' might be granted, especially when other insurers follow suit.
       • Shanreagh 6.2.1.1

         10 May 2023 at 10:36 pm

         Yes the business is cutting its risks and you could say that this is because gender affirmation by chemicals designed to treat prostate cancer etcplus cross hormones, or 'heroic' ((meaning anything but) surgery as penises are fashioned out of forearms, made into vaginas, unnecessary hysterectomies and breast removals are done) is a risky business without much of a scientific or medical backing behind it.

         The company would have thin grounds on which to support a member who may be taken to court.

         To me it does not matter where the stopping comes from….having insurers cut back on costs for claiming and meeting litigation costs cases & the consequent restricting of access is as good a way as any.

         There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector,

         Actually there is a lack of data, full stop, worldwide let alone 'good' data. An example is in Sweden which has pulled back on hormonal interventions…

         https://segm.org/segm-summary-sweden-prioritizes-therapy-curbs-hormones-for-gender-dysphoric-youth

         Following a comprehensive review of evidence, the NBHW concluded that the evidence base for hormonal interventions for gender-dysphoric youth is of low quality, and that hormonal treatments may carry risks.

         …

         In light of above limitations in the evidence base, the ongoing identity formation in youth, and in view of the fact that gender transition has pervasive and lifelong consequences, the NBHW has concluded that, at present, the risks of hormonal interventions for gender dysphoric youth outweigh the potential benefits.

         I think Finland & France have too.
7. joe90 7

   10 May 2023 at 1:07 pm

   I'm no fan of Greenwald but this is damn tough.

   Awe Glenn taku arohanui kia koe me to whanau i tenei pouritanga. Kia kaha, kia maia, kia manawanui.

   https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/david-miranda-brazilian-congressman-and-husband-of-glenn-greenwald-dies-at-37-after-9-month-icu-battle/ar-AA1aWV84
8. Joe90 8

   10 May 2023 at 3:05 pm

   When RWNJ's take over.

   Teachers grew particularly alarmed early this year when word spread that Ken Witt, the new superintendent, did not plan to reapply for grants that covered the salaries of counselors and social workers.

   At Gateway Elementary School in March, Witt told staff members he prioritized academic achievement, not students’ emotions. “We are not the department of health and human services,” he said, as teachers angrily objected, according to two recordings of the meeting made by staff members and shared with NBC News.

   Someone in the meeting asked if taxpayers would get a say in these changes, and Witt said that they already did — when they elected the school board.

   https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/woodland-park-colorado-school-board-conservatives-rcna83311
   • Peter 8.1

     10 May 2023 at 4:01 pm

     Wow!

     Not surprising the Bible makes an appearance in that particular little corner of looneyville. The surprise is the district superintendent is Ken Witt. 'Frank' would've suited him better then he officially could have been 'F Witt.'

     (Board meetings go on line. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R5eyqjK0po)

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