Open mike 12/10/2023

58 comments on “Open mike 12/10/2023 ”

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1. Johnr 1

   12 October 2023 at 7:02 am

   An additional bonus of a left win this election, is that Hosking might have a final tanty and shift camp to aus as he has frequently threatened to do.

   I imagine they are financially independent, so being unemployable won't be an issue
   • Peter 1.1

     12 October 2023 at 7:45 am

     Sorry, but there’s no final tanty coming, no shifting of camp.

     Being aggrieved is oxygen to Hosking. Peters being elected and being in a position of power will energise and invigorate him.

     The broadcaster will look on the election as the classic – coming up with a gold watch but having to fall down a sewer to get it.
   • Tony Veitch 1.2

     12 October 2023 at 7:50 am

     At last – something good to vote for!
   • Adrian Thornton 1.3

     12 October 2023 at 10:43 am

     There is no serious Left wing political party active in New Zealand….Centre and Centre Right…..The Centre is a political ideology…which is what Labour is.
     • Dennis Frank 1.3.1

       12 October 2023 at 11:03 am

       There is no serious Left wing political party active in New Zealand

       Watch out, Marama will give you a severe telling-off! You've been a naughty boy.

       However, with the messiah as precedent you can easily pull a Monty Python on her.
2. Tiger Mountain 2

   12 October 2023 at 8:04 am

   Richard Harman laments “it’s about to get difficult for Luxon” in his latest piece.
   https://www.politik.co.nz/its-about-to-get-difficult-for-luxon/

   His premise is that there is a large undetermined vote–that obviously has not early voted–and that this “soft” vote may well lean toward Labour. He also outlines Winston’s close relationship with Hobson’s Choice.
3. Dennis Frank 3

   12 October 2023 at 8:05 am

   An appraisal of yesterday's 3 polls:

   Three polls yesterday suggested that if National is to form the next government, it will have to do a deal with both ACT and NZ First, and that will mean adopting a harder line on race relations and the Treaty of Waitangi. The preference of National Leader Christopher Luxon that there be simply a National-ACT coalition looks highly unlikely.

   None of the polls, the Guardian Essential poll, the One News Verian poll and the Newshub Reid Research poll, show National and ACT with enough support to form a government. All of them show support for the combined centre-right vote, which has lost momentum and is falling or stalled. That didn’t stop leader Christopher Luxon from emailing party members last night saying, “We have the momentum.” https://www.politik.co.nz/its-about-to-get-difficult-for-luxon/ | Politik

   Harman subtly points us to Luxon's delusion re momentum. An influential media mainstreamer suggesting that the Nat leader is in perverse denial of polling reality is likely to seem entertaining to his readers.
4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4

   12 October 2023 at 8:13 am

   I Voted yesterday. 2 ticks for our Left (unsurprisingly : )

   When I arrived at the Poll station there was an "older" couple standing in the doorway having a bit of a discussion with a friendly Polling helper .

   She looked past them to me asked if I had my EasyVote card….I showed her, she smiled and pointed over to the Polling checkers.

   I got verified and given voting paper….meanwhile the doorway discussion was still going on, and another Polling helper had joined them. Seems it was all about their address and where.. to actually vote ! (I was hearing all of this ..)

   OK, so me being me, I asked the guy who had taken my EasyVote card, if there had been urgent action to get the process moving (1 million not sent ?)

   He seemed maybe not so pleased to be asked this ? And said it was mainly South Auckland.

   That didnt really answer my question. The doorway discussion still going.

   Anyway I left..having voted Left… and got on my bike and the Sun was shining.

   Positively Left as it were : )
   • Mike the Lefty 4.1

     12 October 2023 at 8:50 am

     Officers are supposed to query addresses to ensure the correct electorate is selected but not to discuss turnout or any other EC business.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 4.1.1

       12 October 2023 at 8:54 am

       Ah. That might explain him. And maybe the others were just Helpers? Still doesnt help the EasyVote situation. Which was my concern. IMO really not good enough. Especially with the lack/apathy around..Voting !
       • Mike the Lefty 4.1.1.1

         12 October 2023 at 11:41 am

         I am, by the way, basing my reply on my own experience working at the polls in previous elections. I am not doing it at this election because I am laid up after a leg operation.

         As polling booth officials, we are given strict instructions on what we can and can't say and do at the venue At times we are challenged by unusual enquiries and events and have to rely on our own common sense when there is no obvious rule to consult.

         I would say that polling officials get it right mostly, because they are often very interested in our democratic system of voting and want to participate in helping it, as well as the money. But being human errors can happen. There are a lot of checks designed to spot errors in registration and the voting process but humans can make mistakes. I myself once had occasion to tell my booth officer that all ballot boxes had to be opened before the general electorate count could be started, she had thought only the general electorate box should be opened until I reminded her that almost inevitably at least one person puts their vote in the wrong box and should a general electorate vote end up in the maori electorate box the count would have to be done from scratch again – a time consuming process. I was right, but not particularly popular with her for the rest of the night.

         I think there has been a lot of media misinformation spread about voting problems. People in rural areas whining that they can't vote at the exact time it suits them should be reminded that in the old days they had one day only to vote and didn't have the choices that they had today. Some people expect to have a voting booth open at every sheep station along the backroad. That costs a lot of money for not a lot of gain.
       • bwaghorn 4.1.1.2

         12 October 2023 at 12:13 pm

         My easy vot card got delivered to a previous address, but had my current one on the card itself??!!
         • PsyclingLeft.Always 4.1.1.2.1

           12 October 2023 at 1:21 pm

           Yes. All seems quite…disjointed ? Not like they only had weeks to sort it out? IMO its slack.

           Anway…I did read you got early voting. And Tactically too.

           Onya Matey : )
5. Dennis Frank 5

   12 October 2023 at 8:14 am

   Folks ought to watch keenly for co-governance aka treaty rights in tonight's debate!

   The alliance between Hobson’s Pledge and NZ First was cemented with the selection of Hobson’s Pledge’s vice president, Casey Costello, as Number Three on their list and, ironically, as their candidate for Port Waikato.

   Her speech to New Zealand First’s convention in July was highly critical of National of its signing of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, of its replacement for the Foreshore and Seabed legislation and its inclusion of iwi participation clauses in the Resource Management Law reform of 2017.

   “What is clear to me now is that the three years of the absence of New Zealand First has seen enormous harm to race relations in this country,” she told the conference and then announced that she would be a candidate.

   ACT has, in the meantime, developed its own hardline on race relations, wanting to put a statement on what the Treaty means, which would go back to before the 1987 Appeal Court judgement of Judge Robin Cooke, which said the Treaty of Waitangi established a partnership between Maori and the Crown. That statement would then be put to a referendum. ACT leader David Seymour said last weekend that policy would be at the top of his list in any coalition negotiation with National.
   https://www.politik.co.nz/its-about-to-get-difficult-for-luxon/ | Politik

   Harman has outlined what this election outcome is likely to hinge on. Aotearoa seeks a better way forward, politicians adopt postures accordingly, then supply what the situation seems to demand. Supply & demand being market forces, the public will buy any agreed deal that seems better than the current situation.
   • Stephen D 5.1

     12 October 2023 at 10:05 am

     So, they’re going to seriously piss off the poor and disenfranchised. At the same time, give them right to buy AR15s. Mmmmmm.
6. Sanctuary 6

   12 October 2023 at 8:16 am

   Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Tuesday that the Israel Defense Forces is moving to a “full offense” against the Gaza Strip… …“I have released all the restraints, we have [regained] control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense,” Gallant said…"

   https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-israel-moving-to-full-offense-gaza-will-never-go-back-to-what-it-once-was/

   Israel basically just issued its own version of the severity order.

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severity_Order

   That two groups of humans can come to hate each other so much is just shocking beyond description.
   • Muttonbird 6.1

     12 October 2023 at 10:55 am

     Classic landlord/tenant relationship.
   • Dennis Frank 6.2

     12 October 2023 at 10:59 am

     That two groups of humans can come to hate each other so much is just shocking beyond description.

     That mutual hatred arose from dispossession after conquering. Jews & Palestinians are both semitic people so orthodox ethnic relations experts have a commons basis for reframing, should they choose to use it.

     Do the UN use such experts? Not to my knowledge. What's the point of developing expertise in that field if you don't use it when crises happen??
     • aj 6.2.1

       12 October 2023 at 3:21 pm

       two groups of humans can come to hate each other so much

       One of them has powerful friends. Doesn't help. The world is f****d.

       Lindsey Graham Declares 'We're in a Religious War,' Suggests Israel 'Level the Place'

       https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lindsey-graham-declares-were-in-a-religious-war-suggests-israel-level-the-place/ar-AA1i3tn7?fullscreen=true&cvid=4c91f609ed684a49ac91a85827630e9c&ei=26#image=2
7. Bearded Git 7

   12 October 2023 at 8:17 am

   The average of the last two polls, which were taken within 4 days of election day is:

   Lab/Gr/TPM 44.4

   Nat/ACT/NZF 51.0

   While it is closing, there is still too much of a gap at 6.6.

   There is one glimmer of hope-NZF average 6.4 in those last two polls. Just a faint chance they will still come in at 4.9 which would make the election too close to call.

   It is also possible the polls understate TPM’s vote and that they do not fully take into account overseas votes, both of which favour the Left.
   • Peter 7.1

     12 October 2023 at 9:42 am

     The pondering of a closing gap and the overall closeness reminds me of a final flourish of a rugby team which gives them a sniff at the end of a game which suggests they could have done it.

     The silly penalties and dropped balls earlier are what put them in the position, what eroded their chances.What you might term the ‘Stuart Nash factors.’
8. Dennis Frank 8

   12 October 2023 at 8:27 am

   Worm-world in retrospect:

   The stunt was used off and on from 1996-2011, but had an outsized influence on the 2002 election in particular – the aftermath of the debate is available on NZ on Screen, and is the only prime-time worm footage available online. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/12-10-2023/the-worm-electrocuted-politics-in-2002-now-were-living-in-the-worms-world

   the worm made its debut during the first MMP election. Its most notorious moment came when then-PM Jim Bolger had the temerity to acknowledge that “death is always associated with healthcare”.

   The worm hated Bolger’s uncontroversial and obviously true statement, and Bolger hated the worm. “I think it’s a total irrelevancy that has no place in intelligent discussion,” he said at the time.

   Spinoff founder Duncan Greive plays analytic historian culture vulture:

   it is still with us in a way. In fact, it feels like we live in the worm’s world now – you never have to wonder what anyone thinks about anything a politician says. That final year, 2011, is around the time that social media went mainstream and became a giant always-on, all-of-population worm.

   And declares us in “vibes era of politics”. Vibes being field effects in physics, he's not wrong. Then outlines the push-me, pull you theory:

   our would-be prime ministers are so hyper-aware of this dynamic that public statements and policy announcements are largely driven by a combination of polling, focus groups and the pulse of social media sentiment.

   That's an impressive triad he's pointing to!
9. Dennis Frank 9

   12 October 2023 at 10:12 am

   A shift is pending:

   Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has asked for official advice on whether Hamas – the Islamist military group behind a deadly attack on Israel – should be designated as a terrorist organisation and “disagrees” with Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson who suggested the Israeli Defence Forces should also undergo a terrorist assessment.

   I'm with Marama on this. James disagrees with the shift:

   He did not believe New Zealand should move to designate the entire Hamas organisation as a terrorist entity. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/133097947/israelhamas-war-chris-hipkins-is-seeking-advice-on-designating-hamas-a-terror-entity-what-do-other-politicians-think

   Inasmuch as peacemaking requires a negotiating body, I'm with James. The basic problem is ethnicity as basis for sovereignty. Politicians are reluctant to admit this. Just because the old testament God told the Israelites to use genocide to take possession of the promised land doesn't mean such exclusivity is morally right – when it's morally wrong!

   But on Wednesday, Hipkins said he disagreed with Davidson’s characterisation.

   To err is human. He has every right to demonstrate humanity.
10. Chris 10

    12 October 2023 at 10:50 am

    John Key is such a slime. His faux praise for Chris Hipkins being "a man of his word" to remind everyone, especially Hipkins, that if Labour goes with Peters then "he's not a man of his word". Then just yesterday warns everyone that the nats' tax cuts and other promises are at risk because of all the palaver and chaos NZF will cause if part of a coaltion with the nats. What a schmuck.
    • AB 10.1

      12 October 2023 at 1:10 pm

      If Hipkins is a "man of his word" it might be a reason to vote for him. Meanwhile Luxon is man of many words, all pre-scripted and repeated endlessly and irrelevantly upon the stimulus of seeing a microphone. Is he Air NZ's first embarrassing attempt to replace their cabin crews with AI? And you do know that traducing the personal ethics of Saint John is a thought crime?
    • Mike the Lefty 10.2

      12 October 2023 at 5:44 pm

      Luxon is absolutely a man of of his words – his weasel words.
11. Adrian Thornton 11

    12 October 2023 at 10:54 am

    Reports of Israeli 'white phosphorus' use in Gaza
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-palestine-war-gaza-report-israeli-white-phosphorus

    Suffocation and Isolation
    17 Years of Israeli Blockade on Gaza

    "Rather than undertaking its duty of protecting the civilian population in the Gaza Strip, Israel has been placing Palestinians under a suffocating blockade, which constitutes an unprecedented form of collective punishment in a stark violation of international humanitarian law."

    Infant Mortality In Gaza No Longer In Decline “Alarming Trend” According to New Report by UNRWA

    "“this is an extraordinary warning sign, an alarming trend in the overall situation not only of health for infants but also the health of entire Palestine refugee population in Gaza. Moreover, it is a warning sign on the overall social and economic situation of Gaza, as the Palestine refugees account for more than seventy per cent of the entire populations in Gaza. Infant mortality is a barometer of the health of an entire population”.
12. Dennis Frank 12

    12 October 2023 at 11:09 am

    Nat/Labs neolib wet-dream spurts this:

    Population growth from immigration of temporary workers to replace and supplement emigrating local workers rose to more than 2% in the last year, without nearly enough infrastructure built or planned for two decades at that level, and without any real debate just days before an election.

    https://thekaka.substack.com/p/thursdays-chorus-record-population#details

    Nat/Labs will be delirious with joy at this resumption of the Ak property escalator. True neolib believers are already salivating. Make the rich richer, asap!
13. tsmithfield 13

    12 October 2023 at 11:24 am

    From the "ask a stupid question" category, I see Guy Williams has asked Luxon if he believes in dinosaurs. Luxon confirmed he did believe in dinasours.

    The reason I say it was a stupid question is that I don't know any fundies who don't believe in dinasours.

    A much better question to have asked is if he believes dinasours were alive at the same time as humans. I know fundies who believe the earth is literally 6000 years old who hold that view.
    • SPC 13.1

      12 October 2023 at 11:34 am

      Sure it was on TV, Dino was pet of the Flintstone family in Bedrock.

      And they know what will happen at the end time because they read the Left Behind books (thought they will be taken to an airport for rapture to escape it all).
      • tsmithfield 13.1.1

        12 October 2023 at 11:56 am

        Sure it was on TV, Dino was pet of the Flintstone family in Bedrock.

        People with those sort of beliefs usually have better evidence than that to support their views!.

        That sort of thinking usually involves finding evidence that confirms a particular theory but ignores the vast amount of evidence that refutes it. For example, fossilized foot-prints of humans and dinosaurs, suggesting they were walking together. The various historical pictures of dragons that looked remarkably similar to some of the historical dinosaurs. And one explanation for how light could have been travelling for billions of years if the universe is only 6000 years old, is the conjecture by some scientists that light has been slowing down.

        I don't know if they have given much thought to how much light actually would have needed to slow to explain the fairly stark difference between 14 billion years and 6 thousand years.
    • observer 13.2

      12 October 2023 at 11:46 am

      Your last point is a good one.

      As for Guy Williams, he usually isn't very funny, although "NZ Today" had some good moments. He stopped Leo Molloy becoming Auckland mayor, at least. (Wayne Brown was only the second worst candidate in the race).
    • AB 13.3

      12 October 2023 at 1:13 pm

      Fossils were planted in the rocks by God to test the faith of humans. Carbon dating is the devil's handiwork. How can you not know this tsmith?
      • tsmithfield 13.3.1

        12 October 2023 at 2:49 pm

        They have got a bit more scientific about this sort of stuff these days. But, the arguments are still stupid. For instance, if you point to carbon dating of some fossil showing it to be a million years old or something, they will point to some dubious result where, for instance, a live penguin was carbon dated and found to be millions of years old or something.

        The inference being that one dodgy result disproves the whole history of carbon dating as a science.
      • Incognito 13.3.2

        12 October 2023 at 2:57 pm

        Carbon dating doesn’t work on/with dinosaur fossils.
        • AB 13.3.2.1

          12 October 2023 at 3:20 pm

          Thanks incognito. Like Maureen Pugh, I'll need to do some reading this weekend.
14. Poldark 14

    12 October 2023 at 11:55 am

    One of the more absurd explanations that I have heard from a fundy to explain the existence of fossils is that that were 2 creations. In the 1st God stuck all these bones and so on in the ground (for what reason I have never been able to fathom) and then of course the 2nd with Adam and Eve.
    • SapphireGem 14.1

      12 October 2023 at 12:16 pm

      lol
15. observer 15

    12 October 2023 at 11:55 am

    I voted today.

    It's easy to forget how well run our elections are. Compared to the shambles in some other democracies (see Trump), NZ's is a model of efficiency and accessibility. If we take it for granted, we shouldn't. What would our turnout be if we had to queue for hours?

    No ID either, something used to block participation in other jurisdictions (again, see USA). EasyVote card, ballot paper, done.
16. Drowsy M. Kram 16

    12 October 2023 at 12:01 pm

    Luxon's "new favourite dinosaur"? "The TaxReliefosaurus" – except it's not new, is it Chris, nor anywhere near as big as Willux would have voters believe. Can't trust these “bottom feeders“.

    Get Our Country Unearned LandLORD Income Back on Track

    Very National in deed – self-serving scammers absolutely in thrall to Mammon.

    Election 2023: Hundreds of landlords to become tax-cut millionaires under National's plan – analysis [10 Oct 2023]

    Luxon unsure if he'll lower rents on homes he owns despite policy promise [10 Sept 2023]
    Christopher Luxon is unsure whether he will lower the rents on his own investment properties if National's housing policy is enacted despite saying the plans would put a "downward pressure on rents" if the party is elected.

    Nats aim to reheat the property market – donors are fuming over falling house prices.

    Pulling tax from one part of teetering Jenga tower to place it in another [updated 20 Sept 2023]
    At its core, National’s tax plan is all about property.

    It should be no surprise that the real estate sector, who stand to gain from an influx of affluent foreign buyers, have been the most vocal in their enthusiasm for National’s tax plan.
17. SapphireGem 17

    12 October 2023 at 12:39 pm

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-video-labour-s-chris-hipkins-on-why-he-didn-t-sleep-for-weeks-where-his-trouble-with-pastries-may-have-started.html

    Hipkins seeming pretty calm, measured, and philosophical about it all.
18. Dennis Frank 18

    12 October 2023 at 1:14 pm

    Marama does a co-knitting session with Lloyd Burr of Newshub: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-video-the-greens-marama-davidson-faces-new-level-of-political-pressure-knitting-with-newshub.html

    Along with the dextrous reciprocity we get small owl calls, Marama's whanau & her parlimentary career. This is the best kind of journalism, revealing the dimensions of a politicians connection to community, so we see them in their operating contexts.
19. Chris 19

    12 October 2023 at 2:13 pm

    Luxon's coined a new election campaign meme: 'up the lux'. Wonderfully fitting. Reminds me of my old mum complaining she's lost something: "oh no, it's probably gone up the lux."

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300987385/nz-election-2023-live-national-up-the-lux-and-on-the-defensive-over-nz-first
    • Drowsy M. Kram 19.1

      12 October 2023 at 2:17 pm

      
    • weka 19.2

      12 October 2023 at 2:27 pm

      😆
    • SapphireGem 19.3

      12 October 2023 at 2:53 pm

      Lol. To me, up the Lux sounds like something stuck in a very questionable, unpleasant, uncomfortable place.
      • Roy Cartland 19.3.1

        12 October 2023 at 2:55 pm

        Same. It sounds more like something his non-supporters would say 😖
        • SapphireGem 19.3.1.1

          12 October 2023 at 3:31 pm

          Definitely does. He's so obviously trying to imitate the "up the Wahs" catchphrase.
          • Drowsy M. Kram 19.3.1.1.1

            12 October 2023 at 3:54 pm

            He's so obviously trying to imitate the "up the Wahs" catchphrase.

            Will he go ‘full imitation’ & dip out in a preliminary final? Hope so – suck it up Lux.
            • SapphireGem 19.3.1.1.1.1

              12 October 2023 at 4:05 pm

              
      • Peter 19.3.2

        12 October 2023 at 5:29 pm

        True, but as unpleasant as it is, would he rather be in Hipkins' place?
    • weka 19.4

      12 October 2023 at 4:20 pm

      I stole that for twitter 😉
    • SPC 19.5

      12 October 2023 at 5:18 pm

      Some would say that Unilever hired him because he was on lux brand.

      Trying to over egg it is a little trumpian.

      https://www.dealercreative.com/blog/branding-the-denny-crane-way

      PS Note that Winston Peters has been wearing his suit as a brand since …
20. Vivie 20

    12 October 2023 at 3:36 pm

    Given that National and their supporters' typical way of communication is negative, dishonest and often abusive, hopefully the moderator on tonight's leaders' debate will have the professionalism to acknowledge this, and not persist with the false narrative that this has been, and is, Labour's usual style.

    Dylan Asafo: "Opinion: Last Friday, a study was released finding that 94.5 percent of the National Party’s Facebook posts from September 11 to September 24 had been negative. The academic leading the study, Victoria University’s Dr Mona Krewel, said this finding was “not unexpected, given Labour is the incumbent and National is wanting to change the government”. To many of us, this finding was also unsurprising because it reflected the intense fear that’s been driving its campaign and the campaigns of Act and NZ First".

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/a-chance-to-cut-through-the-fear-and-find-the-best-of-us

    Dr Mona Krewel.“Results show National is far more negative than Labour, which is campaigning from an incumbent’s position and that means mostly staying positive and trying to emphasise achievements in government.

    “If we subtract negative posts from positive posts, about 63 percent more Labour posts included positive self-presentation than negative attacks. In comparison, when we do the same for National, it had a net positivity score of just 5.5 percent".

    https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/news/2023/10/negative-campaiging-in-the-2023-new-zealand-election

    Viewers surely can expect insightful questions, to help the undecided voters make informed decisions. I hope the moderator lets Chris Hipkins finish his responses rather than talking over him, and gives him equal time as is given to Christopher Luxon.
    • rod 20.1

      12 October 2023 at 4:54 pm

      The moderator is told what to do by the Nats, and the media, before the leaders debate gets started. my opinion.
21. adam 21

    12 October 2023 at 5:21 pm

    So the IDF are bombing homes of journalist now. And first responders going to peoples aid.

    We are just going to attack Hamas – yeah right.

    https://twitter.com/AbbyMartin
22. Ffloyd 22

    12 October 2023 at 9:43 pm

    Paula Bennett!!!. Really!!!! Could not believe it. How in the heck was she brought on as a panelist. She who believed there was no such thing as Poverty, GOLLY GOSH. I’m done.
    Not watching any more of this travesty. Straight in delivering the NP lines. Accusing Chris Hipkins of negative accusations against The Lux. Oh, the irony. Do they all sleep in the same bed.

    Blatant put up job. Sick.
    • Rolling-on-Gravel 22.1

      12 October 2023 at 10:47 pm

      She and other Nats made people on the benefits' lives miserable IMO.

      I haven't forgotten what she did with Training Incentive Allowance 😡🤬

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