Reposted from here. Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the latest Roy Morgan poll.
Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%.
This poll’s field period started just a few days after the Budget, and ended before the Banks stuff, so I think it is picking up a post-Budget spike for National and I do not think National will stay at this height for long.1 In addition, most of the poll was taken prior to the Laila Harre appointment was made, so I would not read much into Internet MANA’s poor joint showing.
Nonetheless, the poll shows that the centre-left parties have a big, big hill to climb in the remaining three-and-a-bit-months.
The poll also shows that Roy Morgan needs a new internal commentator on New Zealand politics. Building on the amusingly-naive claim a few weeks back that the Internet Party was busy building its support at the expense of the Conservatives, comes this week’s gem:
In addition the Greens (9%, down 4.5%) have slumped to their lowest level of support since before the last New Zealand election after announcing last weekend a proposal to introduce a Carbon Tax in New Zealand in place of the current Emissions Trading Scheme.
That announcement came out on the same day the poll closed. Eesh.
Unlike some others, I have a good amount of faith in the Roy Morgan polling method and in their estimates. But right now the commentary isn’t worth the pixels it is projected with.
1. This isn’t because soft voters are sitting around reading the Budget docs, believing them, then reading some Labour / Green / IM package later, and believing that instead. It is actually because soft voters remember a vague cue from the TV news or newspaper when they’re asked how they will vote. Just after the Budget, that vague memory is more likely to be of smiles and handshakes for a surplus. As those shots fade from the media, its effect fades from the polls.