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Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary

Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, June 7th, 2014 - 47 comments
Categories: election 2014, elections, polls - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnReposted from here. Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the latest Roy Morgan poll.

Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%.

This poll’s field period started just a few days after the Budget, and ended before the Banks stuff, so I think it is picking up a post-Budget spike for National and I do not think National will stay at this height for long.1 In addition, most of the poll was taken prior to the Laila Harre appointment was made, so I would not read much into Internet MANA’s poor joint showing.

Nonetheless, the poll shows that the centre-left parties have a big, big hill to climb in the remaining three-and-a-bit-months.

The poll also shows that Roy Morgan needs a new internal commentator on New Zealand politics. Building on the amusingly-naive claim a few weeks back that the Internet Party was busy building its support at the expense of the Conservatives, comes this week’s gem:

In addition the Greens (9%, down 4.5%) have slumped to their lowest level of support since before the last New Zealand election after announcing last weekend a proposal to introduce a Carbon Tax in New Zealand in place of the current Emissions Trading Scheme.

That announcement came out on the same day the poll closed. Eesh.

Unlike some others, I have a good amount of faith in the Roy Morgan polling method and in their estimates. But right now the commentary isn’t worth the pixels it is projected with.

1. This isn’t because soft voters are sitting around reading the Budget docs, believing them, then reading some Labour / Green / IM package later, and believing that instead. It is actually because soft voters remember a vague cue from the TV news or newspaper when they’re asked how they will vote. Just after the Budget, that vague memory is more likely to be of smiles and handshakes for a surplus. As those shots fade from the media, its effect fades from the polls.

lprent: Just by way of comparison, here are the equivalent figures for the first Roy Morgan poll taken fully after the budget in  2011, like the poll in the post above (ie to compare after two events)

Party 30 May-12 June 2011 Election 2011 19 May-1 June 2011
National  54.0  47.31  52.5
Labour  30.5  27.48  29.0
Green  5.5  11.06  9.0
Act  2.5  1.07  1.0
Maori  3.0  1.43  1.5
United Future 0.5  0.60  0.0
NZ First 3.5  6.59  4.5
Mana    1.08  0.5
Internet     0.5
Conservative    2.65  1.0

2011 poll: N+A+MP+UF = 60.0%, L+G+NZF = 39.5%

2014 poll: N+A+MP+UF+C = 56.0%, L+G+NZF = 43.5%

2011 election: N+A+MP+UF+C = 53.06%, L+G+NZF+M= 46.21%

The left block (assuming that percentages translate into seats) is in a far better position this June than they were in 2011 and this time there is no rugby world cup to distract voter attention. As Rob says; the government usually gets a significiant post-poll boost and that fades. Just like from the commentariat’ very short-term memory. hat-tip: colonial viper

47 comments on “Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary”

  1. Chooky 1

    “Bugger the polls…and bugger the pollsters” as Jim Bolger said.

    I think people are keeping their powder dry until they get into the voting booth.

  2. Tautoko Viper 2

    I agree with Frank Macskasy” view.
    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/07/the-secret-of-nationals-success-revealed/
    Let’s be respectful to our allies and all face the common enemy.
    “United we stand, divided we fall, ……..

    • David H 2.1

      Yeah Franks real good at this stuff.

    • Ant 2.2

      Totally way to much time attacking allies……it also doesn’t help that the left’s most visible commentators spend about 50% of their time attacking the left.

  3. weka 3

    How much notice does the MSM take of RM’s commentary?

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      Pretty much nil. But MSM generally only pretend that their polling is the only polling that exists. Although two recent cases earlier this year they seemed to collaboratively break out and talk about ‘wider polling’, the first case around January was when two polls came out showing opposite scenarios, and again around March showing National strongly up in a range of polls.

      • swordfish 3.1.1

        No. National took a hit in the March polls and the MSM got it entirely wrong. They were down 5 points with the Right Bloc down 3.

        As I mention here the MSM employed contrasting modes of poll analysis in February and March: the common denominator being that in both cases the methodology underlying their analysis favoured National. In February, the MSM did indeed “break out and talk about wider polling”. In doing so, they rightly highlighted the clear swing to National and the Right in that month.

        Unfortunately, in March, the MSM employed an extremely restrictive mode of analysis which, for instance, saw Gower depict the 3 News Reid Research Poll as Good for National and the Right and Bad for Labour and the Left – when, in fact, it was no such thing. The corollary of what I would call both the Time-lag effect and the Media Exclusive effect, possibly with a subtle (and sometimes not so subtle) underlying pro-National MSM partisanship.

        RM results are covered on a fairly regular basis in the MSM Print Media – albeit very briefly in those little one-paragraph side-bar stories.

        The thing that really intrigues me about RM is their unusually small proportion of Undecideds – far lower relative to the other 4 public polls. I’d like to know their precise methodology and its impact on accuracy.

        • swordfish 3.1.1.1

          In terms of Lynn’s point that the Left Bloc is currently in a far better position / Right Bloc in a far worse position than they were in 2011, see my various comments and figures here and here and one of the probable reasons for the consistent over-stating of National and Right Bloc support here.

          • swordfish 3.1.1.1.1

            National – Average Monthly Poll support 2014 relative to 2011

            Jan 2011 52 % 2014 45 % (down 7 points)
            Feb 2011 52 % 2014 49 % (down 3 points)
            March 2011 52 % 2014 46 % (down 6 points)
            April 2011 54 % 2014 46 % (down 8 points)
            May 2011 52 % 2014 49 % (down 3 points).
            (In June and July 2011, National’s support averaged 53 %)

            National – Average Monthly Poll support at same point in electoral cycle 2014 relative to 2011

            8 Months out from Election – 2011 52 % — 2014 45 % (down 7 points)
            7 Months – 2011 54 % — 2014 49 % (down 5 points)
            6 Months – 2011 52 % — 2014 46 % (down 6 points)
            5 Months – 2011 53 % — 2014 46 % (down 7 points)
            4 Months – 2011 53 % — 2014 49 % (down 4 points)

            • swordfish 3.1.1.1.1.1

              The corresponding figures for the Right Bloc 2014 relative to 2011 are:

              Jan down 7 points
              Feb down 2 points
              March down 5 points
              April down 9 points
              May down 4 points

              8 Months down 6 points
              7 Months down 5 points
              6 Months down 6 points
              5 Months down 9 points
              4 Months down 5 points

              • Colonial Viper

                Excellent could you tell us what the figures are for 3, 2, 1, and 0 months are 😛

                • swordfish

                  3 Months Down 22 points
                  2 Months Down 28 points
                  1 Month Down 35 points
                  Final Month Down 43 points

          • lprent 3.1.1.1.2

            Cool. Worth reading even if it is incomplete..

        • Lanthanide 3.1.1.2

          Roy Morgan polled me, on my cell-phone no-less. I asked them how they got the number and they said they did random calling, and that’s why they asked me for my postcode at the start of the poll so they could get a fair sample across the country.

          Other than that it seemed like any other regular poll. They also sent me out a paper booklet with about 40 pages of other consumer survey stuff which I filled out and got a $20 petrol voucher for. I expect they probably used the phone poll results when reporting their political polling, although IIRC the same questions were also in the booklet (but since that took a week to arrive and then return via mail, they can’t be using that when reporting the results).

          • swordfish 3.1.1.2.1

            Interesting, Lanth. Roy Morgan do seem to be the only company polling cell-phones as well as landline.

            It’d be very interesting to discover whether or not they prompt those who are initially undecided on the Party Vote question with the follow-up question ‘ “Is there a Party you’re more likely to vote for ?” or something similar. Because that kind of very broad, inclusive approach where prompted respondents are included in the final party support results seems to be One News Colmar Brunton’s modus operandi.

            And yet One News consistently records a far higher Undecided (even after the follow-up) – and therefore excluded sub-set than Roy Morgan. And I mean far higher.

  4. Tracey 4

    One reason why some people (including young and new voters) stay away from the polls if they think their vote is irrelevant cos the result is a forgone conclusion. This is why polls are so frequent, it reinforces a certain meme.

    I am not a fan of them and would like to see them gone, forever, and definitely a few months before an election.

    But its purpose? What does it serve? Not the people. It’s only serving the people if you think a poll is a good substitution for thinking.

    • karol 4.1

      Agreed.

    • Chooky 4.2

      +100

      • lurgee 4.2.1

        I love polls. Can’t get enough of them. Wish we had daily polls like YouGov d in Britain. though as I seem to be on some pollsters contact list, it would mean I’d be getting polled several times a week …

        I the left ‘bloc’ can not motivate people to vote for them or take an interest it is hardly the fault of pollsters. Perhaps the left ‘bloc’ should take a look at itself and wonder why people are not interested in what they have to say.

    • poem 4.3

      Totally agree Tracey, well said. I have no doubts that national is using polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink voters and demoralise the opposition.

  5. Chooky 5

    Martyn Bradbury on the Polls

    iPredict vs Roy Morgan Poll

    By Martyn Bradbury / June 6, 2014

    “I think ACT is over priced, Conservatives about right, IMP way too low and Greens I would buy up to 14%…..Two very different pictures are emerging between the iPredict market and the mainstream media polls.

    Roy Morgan’s this week was terrible for the Left, yet the iPredict markets are suggesting something very different.

    The iPredict Election show called the election closest last election and their read on National’s vote on election night suggests that punters acknowledge National are not doing nearly as well as the polls would have us believe. Punters willing to put their money where their mouth is say…

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/06/ipredict-vs-roy-morgan-poll/

    • fisiani 5.1

      Current ipredict odds of National PM 74%

      You can short this for a layout of just $26 and win $100

      • bad12 5.1.1

        Cling to that wont you Fisiani, ipredict have the National Party polling at 44%, that’s one hell of a big Opposition,(and there is no position that i know of with the title of Prime Minister of the Opposition)…

        • fisiani 5.1.1.1

          you obviously don’t understand how ipredict works.
          Let me explain
          buy a 74c prediction ofPM Nat and if correct you win another 26c
          buy a 44c vote share and National gets 51% then you win another 7c.
          The clever money goes on PM Nat.
          If you are so clever and know that it will be The Cunliffe then you can make a tidy profit very easily.

          • bad12 5.1.1.1.1

            fisiani, your idea of ”risk” and ”tidy profits” obviously suffer a way lower thresh-hold to enable participation in a ”gamble” than mine,

            Believing that you are a bottom feeder obviously leaves me unsurprised by this, however, a tidy profit is a subjective term, i mean an obvious chimp like you will probably happily gamble 15 bucks and if you win blow your tiny little mind over the 5 extra bucks you have,

            At the same time tho,should you lose as all small timers eventually do you have an innate ability to provoke amnesia inside what passes for brain matter in your cranial cavity,

            i think i will decline your offer to play the odds casting a vote or two on the day seems a far more efficacious route to community prosperity…

            • fisiani 5.1.1.1.1.1

              why call it a gamble? If you really know politics then ipredict just means taking money off the misguided. That is not a gamble. For instance take the safe Labour seat of Palmerston North with a fabulous and well known incumbent. His ipredict price last month was 84%. Nat win was 16% Then Jono Naylor was chosen as the National Party candidate. I bought shares. Price now for Labour to win in 49%. Which one will win. My money is on Jono. A rising tide lifts all boats and Jono is the 3 time and current Mayor of Palmerston North and better known than the incumbent Labour candidate. Note how I am not disclosing who he/she is. Not many would know that nobody. If you know PN politics better than me then you can DOUBLE your investment in just 4 months.

              • bad12

                Hell fisiani when i get into investing my hard earned cash in anything i double the money i put in on a weekly basis,

                Off you go now and play with your little toy, you will be able to go to the ware whare after the election with a lot of luck and buy yourself a real soft fluffy one, with a squeak too…

                • dave

                  If you thank that’s true you should consider running a ponzi scheme!

                  • bad12

                    If i thank anything was true dave i reckon i would probably consider running a pinzu scheme,

                    Along with your inability to either spell or use the provided edit function i see the crux of your argument as really really THICK,

                    When i wish to double my money weekly on the original investement i just turn up the volume on the sounds and flick the switch to fire up my otherwise dormant double set of quad 600’s…

              • chris73

                Yes but that would mean putting money where ones mouth is whereas the left prefer to use other peoples money-

                • Colonial Viper

                  Yes but that would mean putting money where ones mouth is whereas the left prefer to use other peoples money-

                  So does the corporate right wing.

                  See also: finance companies, investment banks, fund managers and property developers. Also BHP, owners of the Bluff smelter.

  6. Sanctuary 6

    Polls should be banned for 100 days before the election. It might even force the media to talk about policies.

    • freedom 6.1

      +1

    • Bearded Git 6.2

      +1

    • Colonial Viper 6.3

      I was thinking no polling activity 21 days before an election (to balance freedom of speech considerations), but yeah.

      • Tempted to say they can poll all they want if they don’t publish the results, lol, but that does introduce the possibility of push-polling.

        • Colonial Viper 6.3.1.1

          The problem is that unpublished results can still be “leaked” and cause a media frenzy…best to ban commercial polling activity altogether for the 3-4 weeks before election day, then let the media rattle on about pointless 2 month old polls if they want to. (Also avoids the problem of censoring newspapers from printing news…)

    • poem 6.4

      +1Sanctuary Would like to see polls ditched permanently.

  7. bad12 7

    The data sets showing the actual numbers of all the Roy Morgan polls as opposed to the squiggly line one above is also an eye-opener,

    Sorry i haven’t got a link for it but it was linked to in ‘Open Mike’ the other day, what the actual numbers show tho is that the National vote keeps swinging wildly up and down, up,down,up down, over great swathes of the poll printed showing the actual numbers swinging not by a % or two but by 5% over 4–6 week periods,(like Roy cannot make up His mind),

    i find it hard to believe that the electorate as a whole engages in swings of that nature over such short time-frames…

    • lprent 7.1

      They have a particularly small sample size. But they are a lot more frequent.

      • lurgee 7.1.1

        I tend to assume individual RM polls are anything up to +/- 5%. So a bunch of them might give a fairly accurate idea, but by themselves pretty worthless. We can safely say National are more popular than Labour, but not much more than that.

        • lprent 7.1.1.1

          So a bunch of them might give a fairly accurate idea, but by themselves pretty worthless.

          Agreed for a single poll. However in this case I was at looking at the reaction immediately past an reproducible effect after an event that usually happens every year.

          If you look at the wikipedia link in that post you’ll find that there is a pretty clear pattern of post-budget polls for several years giving a significiant boost to the right bloc (especially National). If you went back further, you’d find that most post-budget polls usually strongly favour the main government party of the day (there are some obvious exceptions to that – the “mother of all budgets” being one of them).

          If you looked at a short rolling average you’ll see a consistent pattern showing a strong lift preceding and especially just after the budget for the main governing party. Which is exactly what you see for a number of years. I only bothered to look at it for 2009-2014 but it is there every year as a clear pattern.

          Not to mention that much of the variance between parties are within the overall right bloc and left blocs – which minimizes much of the ‘noise’.

          That is why I picked the way I presented it – as bloc votes after a recurring annual event. I could have dumped a frigging great badly organised spreadsheet or some of the messy R work that back the simple version that I gave as a example. But really why bother when most people won’t read it anyway.

      • swordfish 7.1.2

        Yep, Roy Morgan usually have a smaller sample (800-900) than 3 of the 4 other Public Polls. The exception is the Herald-Digipoll which has a sample of just 750.

        Roy Morgan, however, do vary their sample size and occasionally, just occasionally, they use a much larger sample (eg 1500 in early Jan 2014). Possibly part of an Omnibus survey.

        • lprent 7.1.2.1

          Interesting. I wasn’t aware of the larger sample sizes.

          It is a bit irritating the way that they don’t really state their margins of error for each poll. Trying to infer a non-linear value on just two points is ridiculously daft.

  8. Bearded Git 8

    Last 10 Roy Morgan’s. Nats v Lab/Green. Looks to me like the last poll was an outlier.

    43.5 46 +2.5
    47 44 -3
    48 42 -6
    48.5 41 -7.5
    45.5 45.5 –
    43 45 +2
    48.5 40 -8.5
    42.5 45.5 +3
    45.5 44 -1.5
    52.5 38 -14.5

    • geoff 8.1

      That’s a nice way to compare, BG. Cheers.

      I did a quick calculation, excluding the last outlier, and the average difference between the 2 blocs is Labour/Green -2.1. I did this by adding up the first 9 numbers and dividing by 9.

      If you include the last one you get an average difference of -3.35.

    • Lanthanide 8.2

      Possible outlier, but also budget effect.

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  • The Nuit Debout revolt in France: let the gems sparkle. . .
    by Denis Godard The movement of occupation of squares in France is [over] two weeks old. [1] Its evolution is difficult to predict, because it is open to many unforeseen events, even though its roots are deep. At this point… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Open Government: Unilateral
    Back in April, State Services Minister Paula Bennett announced in an answer to a Parlaimentary written question that we were consulting the Open Government Secretariat about an extension to the deadline for submitting our action plan:While New Zealand's second Open… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Open Government: Unilateral
    Back in April, State Services Minister Paula Bennett announced in an answer to a Parlaimentary written question that we were consulting the Open Government Secretariat about an extension to the deadline for submitting our action plan:While New Zealand's second Open… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    frogblogBy Marama Davidson
    2 days ago
  • Free the Wicklow 2
    Protests around the imprisonment of these two activists are taking place around Ireland and also in Britain.  Anyone fancy organising something at the Irish embassy in Wellington  There is also an Irish consulate in Auckland. ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • DIY Touring The World: New Zealand
    New Zealand has a small population, few places to play and not much money for touring bands - but you can’t beat the beautiful landscapes, hidden gem venues and fantastic audiences. Music impresario Ian Jorgensen has been touring bands… ...
    2 days ago
  • We are all socialists now
    A mass government house-building programme is a favourite policy of the left for solving the Auckland housing crisis. Use cheap government capital, build affordable, energy-efficient homes, mass produce them to get efficiencies of scale, and get people back into owning… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • We are all socialists now
    A mass government house-building programme is a favourite policy of the left for solving the Auckland housing crisis. Use cheap government capital, build affordable, energy-efficient homes, mass produce them to get efficiencies of scale, and get people back into owning… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Protected: Tributes to Dame Margaret Sparrow
    This post is password protected. You must visit the website and enter the password to continue reading.Filed under: Uncategorized ...
    ALRANZBy ALRANZ
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand and New Zealand
    There’s a 2009 sci-fi novel by China Miéville called The City and the City. The action takes place in two separate cities which overlap each other geographically, but the denizens of each city is compelled to ‘Unsee’ things they see happening in… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand and New Zealand
    There’s a 2009 sci-fi novel by China Miéville called The City and the City. The action takes place in two separate cities which overlap each other geographically, but the denizens of each city is compelled to ‘Unsee’ things they see happening in… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    2 days ago
  • Breaking free from fossil fuels – the risk we take is not taking action
    Last week, #BreakFree2016 wrapped up across the globe. Greenpeace joined with many inspiring organisations in a global wave of peaceful actions that lasted for 12 days and took place across six continents to target the world’s most dangerous fossil fuel projects.In places… ...
    2 days ago
  • More odious debt
    The media over the last few days has been full of stories about WINZ and odious debt. But the worst one is this:A woman with eight children living in emergency housing is facing a debt to Work and Income of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • More odious debt
    The media over the last few days has been full of stories about WINZ and odious debt. But the worst one is this:A woman with eight children living in emergency housing is facing a debt to Work and Income of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Additional Harbour Crossing ill-considered and over-rushed.
    We are increasingly concerned that Auckland is in the middle of very poor process where by far the nation’s biggest ever infrastructure project is being forced along and at ill-considered speed without anything like the level of public participation nor detailed… ...
    Transport BlogBy Patrick Reynolds
    2 days ago
  • Additional Harbour Crossing ill-considered and over-rushed.
    We are increasingly concerned that Auckland is in the middle of very poor process where by far the nation’s biggest ever infrastructure project is being forced along and at ill-considered speed without anything like the level of public participation nor detailed… ...
    Transport BlogBy Patrick Reynolds
    2 days ago
  • Tinder and 3nder are officially at war
    Your right to swipe for threesomes is under threat.    Some clean-cut millennials enjoying the 3nder afterglow. 1232RF Those for whom three is the magic sex-number should know that one's right to swipe one's way into a six-limb circus is… ...
    2 days ago
  • Weekly Listening: Die Antwoord, Joey Purp, King Kapisi and more
    A showcase of some of the best new music releases from the past week.   Joey Purp - GIRLS @ Feat. Chance The Rapper This track might be the catchiest three minutes and 32 seconds to hit your ears… ...
    2 days ago
  • Some big news, for me
    Two pieces of news that are kind of a big deal, for me. Firstly, I’m ditching my landline! I’m not a student and I’m not in a low income band, so make of that what you will. Secondly, after 10… ...
    GrumpollieBy Andrew
    2 days ago
  • Start as you mean to go on
    The GCSB has a new director: His family tease him by calling him Johnny English. He has a 3000-strong record collection – not classical, but some “out there” 1980s indie rock. Andrew Hampton is also a government fix-it man –… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    2 days ago
  • Start as you mean to go on
    The GCSB has a new director: His family tease him by calling him Johnny English. He has a 3000-strong record collection – not classical, but some “out there” 1980s indie rock. Andrew Hampton is also a government fix-it man –… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    2 days ago
  • Polity: Mike’s minute: Mike’s maths!
    Today, media ubiquity Mike Hosking took to nzherald.co.nz to vent his frustration at Labour for suggesting that it would re-convene the same Tax Working Group first used by National. He was clearly very upset.For Mike, Auckland’s housing crisis is a… ...
    2 days ago
  • Polity: Mike’s minute: Mike’s maths!
    Today, media ubiquity Mike Hosking took to nzherald.co.nz to vent his frustration at Labour for suggesting that it would re-convene the same Tax Working Group first used by National. He was clearly very upset.For Mike, Auckland’s housing crisis is a… ...
    2 days ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    frogblogBy Denise Roche
    2 days ago
  • Helter smelter deja vu: Tiwai Point uncertainty stalls NZ renewables
    Simon Johnson looks at how New Zealand Aluminium Smelter Limited is behind the Meridian/Genesis deal keeping the Huntly Thermal Power Station burning coal as the threat of closing the Tiwai Point smelter is stalling the construction of consented renewable energy… ...
    Hot TopicBy Mr February
    2 days ago
  • Helter smelter deja vu: Tiwai Point uncertainty stalls NZ renewables
    Simon Johnson looks at how New Zealand Aluminium Smelter Limited is behind the Meridian/Genesis deal keeping the Huntly Thermal Power Station burning coal as the threat of closing the Tiwai Point smelter is stalling the construction of consented renewable energy… ...
    Hot TopicBy Mr February
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    frogblogBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: This. Is. Crazy.
    It's eight days since the Prime Minister airily assured Guyon Espiner on Morning Report that "in my experience with Work and Income", homeless people could go along to their local office and get sorted with some emergency housing.We now know… ...
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: This. Is. Crazy.
    It's eight days since the Prime Minister airily assured Guyon Espiner on Morning Report that "in my experience with Work and Income", homeless people could go along to their local office and get sorted with some emergency housing.We now know… ...
    2 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    frogblogBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    frogblogBy Gareth Hughes
    2 days ago
  • What we are expected to believe
    In recent months I have become increasingly concerned at the state of bullshit in this country. Bullshit, as Harry Frankfurt famously wrote, is distinguished not by its intentionally negative truth value (those are lies) but its absence of intentional truth… ...
    2 days ago
  • The end of Auckland’s old growth model
    The New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development’s public shark-jumping exercise the other week got me thinking. While their flagship policy of a new megabillion eastern tunnel project is a bit mad, their report does a reasonable job of diagnosing one… ...
    Transport BlogBy Peter Nunns
    2 days ago
  • The end of Auckland’s old growth model
    The New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development’s public shark-jumping exercise the other week got me thinking. While their flagship policy of a new megabillion eastern tunnel project is a bit mad, their report does a reasonable job of diagnosing one… ...
    Transport BlogBy Peter Nunns
    2 days ago
  • Why are whistleblowers being prosecuted as spies?
    Whistleblowers are a ‘check’ on government, corporate or organisational secrecy and malfeasance. I recently read Tim Shipman’s preview of the Chilcot report into the origins of the Tony Blair-led UK engagement in the US’s invasion of Iraq, which looked at… ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    2 days ago
  • Spend and Tax
    As a general rule, New Zealanders want more public spending. Surveys (such as the 2014 Election Survey) show consistent support for increases in spending, particularly in the areas of health, education, housing, law enforcement, public transport and the environment (in… ...
    Briefing PapersBy Brian Easton
    2 days ago
  • The birth place of the artist
    It may not be the best reason to fund the arts. It’s certainly not the only one. But travelling to the small city of Rovereto, at the feet of the Italian dolomites, reminded me of the lasting influence that a… ...
    Bat bean beamBy Giovanni Tiso
    2 days ago

  • Minister won’t fess up on wrong figures
    The Minister of Health was caught out telling porkies in Parliament today when he was asked about the number of people getting access to mental health and addiction services, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. ...
    13 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    13 hours ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    13 hours ago
  • Scrambled announcement policy on the hoof
    Paula Bennett’s scrambled desperate announcement that she will pay homeless people to move to the regions is just the latest evidence of the disarray this Government’s housing policy is in, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This is policy… ...
    14 hours ago
  • Police Minister admits resolution rates fall short of expectation
    Police Minister Judith Collins has admitted in Parliament current burglary resolution rates are not meeting the expectations of our communities, says Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash “Out of 284 police stations in New Zealand in 2015, 24 stations recorded zero… ...
    15 hours ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    15 hours ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    GreensBy Metiria Turei
    16 hours ago
  • Dairy exports fall of 11%: Budget action on diversification needed
    Dairy exports have fallen 11 per cent compared to this time last year, a fall of almost $1.5b, showing the Government must take clear action on diversifying the economy in tomorrow’s Budget, says Labour’s Trade and Export Growth spokesperson David… ...
    17 hours ago
  • Investors driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland
    Investors cashing in on skyrocketing Auckland house prices are driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland and causing homeownership rates in some of our poorest suburbs to plummet, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New analysis shows… ...
    20 hours ago
  • Budget must deliver on paid parental leave
    Budget 2016 must deliver 26 weeks paid parental leave by April 2018 – anything less will be short-changing families, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “My Bill which is before Parliament this afternoon has majority support and does just that. I… ...
    20 hours ago
  • Key’s “brain fart” on tax cuts news to English
    John Key didn’t tell his own Finance Minister he was about to go on radio and announce he wanted $3b of tax cuts, just days after Bill English ruled them out, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “In Parliament today… ...
    2 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    2 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    2 days ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 days ago
  • Budget building materials policy backfires
    On the eve of this year’s Budget official figures show Nick Smith’s Budget 2014 centrepiece to reduce the cost of building materials has backfired, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment officials have spent the… ...
    2 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    2 days ago
  • Govt must come clean on tax cuts in Budget
    National is making a mockery of the Budget process by dangling the promise of tax cuts but failing to include them in the Budget, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “National’s tax cut promises have turned into a farce. One… ...
    3 days ago
  • Grant Robertson Pre-Budget Speech
    Today I want to talk about success. As we know success can come in many different forms, from the fact you all made it here at such an early hour on a Monday, for which I am very grateful, to… ...
    3 days ago
  • Budget must deliver for middle New Zealand
    The Government must ensure next week’s Budget stops the squeeze on middle New Zealand and delivers shared prosperity for all New Zealanders, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. The call follows new research commissioned by Labour that shows working… ...
    4 days ago
  • Our housing emergency – why we have to act
    Marama and Metiria at Homes Not Cars launch On Thursday, Metiria Turei announced the Green Party’s plan to start addressing the emergency housing crisis facing our country. Too many people are without homes right now – homeless. It is the… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    5 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    6 days ago
  • Will funding boost for sexual violence services go to the right places?
    This week the Government announced $46million for sexual violence services. This announcement was a result of decades of work by advocates and everyone who submitted to the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence services that I initiated with… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    6 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    6 days ago
  • Denise Roche – What I’m looking for in this year’s Budget
    Two of the things I’ll be looking for in the Budget next week are more funding for refugees and for our arts and culture sector. More funding for refugees I’m a strong supporter of the #DoubleTheQuota campaign and its goals… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    6 days ago
  • Car rego victims must get a refund
    Motorists who have been overcharged for their car registration should get a refund, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Sue Moroney.  “Minister Nikki Kaye’s ‘faulty risk’ rating scheme has blown up in her face with over 170 different models of car having… ...
    6 days ago
  • Council statement shows they just don’t get it
    The Auckland Council’s statement today shows they don’t understand the problems created by the urban growth boundary, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “I have been the first to defend the Auckland City Council when Bill English has been blaming… ...
    6 days ago
  • Inspecting electronic devices a potential privacy threat
    Labour is expressing concern for New Zealanders’ privacy rights as the Government signals Customs will have the power to inspect electronic devices coming across the border, says Labour’s Customs Spokesperson Rino Tirikatene. “We agree that customs officers should have the… ...
    6 days ago
  • The Price of Water
    This week I hosted a public meeting at EIT in Hawkes Bay to discuss how we might put a price on the commercial use of water, so that water may be valued and treated more sustainably. I invited a… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    6 days ago
  • Caption It NZ!
    Today I received a petition from the NZ Captioning Working Group urging the government to legislate for accessibility via closed captioning for deaf and hard of hearing New Zealanders. It was timely because today is the fifth Global Accessibility Awareness… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    7 days ago
  • Older Kiwis to miss out on electives
    The Government is not doing enough elective surgery to keep up with New Zealand’s ageing population, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “It’s damning that the targeted national intervention rate for cataract and knee and hip surgery is the same… ...
    7 days ago
  • Most principals say their college is underfunded
    The Government must substantially increase funding for secondary schools in next week’s Budget after a new survey found 86 per cent of principals consider their college under-resourced, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Just 14 per cent of secondary principals… ...
    7 days ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    7 days ago
  • Bill English and Nick Smith on different pages
    The Government’s support for Labour’s policy to remove the Auckland urban growth boundary is good news, but National needs to clarify its position, Labour’s Housing and Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Acting Prime Minister has acknowledged our position… ...
    7 days ago
  • Labour calls for independent inquiry into illegal fish dumping
    The Labour Party is reiterating its call for an independent inquiry into New Zealand’s fishing industry after two reports revealed the Ministry for Primary Industries turned a blind eye to widespread fish dumping in New Zealand waters, says Labour’s Fisheries… ...
    7 days ago
  • Mt Karangahake and Newcrest Mining
    On Wednesday and Sunday of last week the local residents of the Karangahake mountain in the Karangahake gorge of Hauraki/Coromandel peacefully protested against a gold mining drill rig on private land adjacent to the DOC land. The drilling rig was… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Robbing Aucklanders to pay Rio Tinto
    New Zealand’s national electricity grid stretches the length of the country and contains some 11,803 kilometres of high-voltage lines and 178 substations. It wouldn’t make sense for competing power companies to duplicate and build their own expensive electricity transmission system… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    1 week ago
  • Government should abolish Auckland urban growth boundary
    The Government should rule out any possibility of an urban growth boundary in Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan if it is serious about fixing the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Over 25 years the urban growth boundary hasn’t… ...
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis don’t want iPads for Land deals
     It is outrageous that schools are relying on money and iPads from foreign land investors to meet the learning needs of their students, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “Several OIO land applications by offshore investors have claimed that without… ...
    1 week ago
  • Homelessness – National has failed all of us
    A young South Auckland Māori woman recently tried to get hold of me around midnight. I missed her call. The woman wanted me to know the sharp reality facing too many families looking for a stable place to live. Things… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    1 week ago
  • Moko case should never have been manslaughter deal
    Confirmation again yesterday that the manslaughter charge in the Moko Rangitoheriri case was a deal done by the Crown Prosecution Service is justifiably the cause of outrage, says Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern.“This should never have been a case where… ...
    1 week ago
  • Overseas investor funds school’s digital devices
    The Government must address the inequality laptops and tablets in classrooms are causing after a Queenstown school was forced to use a donation from an overseas investor to get their students digital devices, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins. “Documents obtained… ...
    1 week ago
  • Child Youth and Family Review and Domestic Violence
    This Government has consistently failed to recognise the links between Child Youth and Family Services (CYFS) and intimate partner violence. For me, the recent review of CYFS has highlighted this misunderstanding of the dynamics of domestic violence and its impacts… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    1 week ago
  • Child Youth and Family Review and Domestic Violence
    This Government has consistently failed to recognise the links between Child Youth and Family Services (CYFS) and intimate partner violence. For me, the recent review of CYFS has highlighted this misunderstanding of the dynamics of domestic violence and its impacts… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    1 week ago
  • Canterbury rebuild: How wood is a better choice for the new city
    It was interesting to attend the ForestWood Conference in Auckland recently and learn about the extent of innovation in the wood processing and manufacturing sector. The forestry sector may be New Zealand’s third largest export earner, but raw logs make… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Canterbury rebuild: How wood is a better choice for the new city
    It was interesting to attend the ForestWood Conference in Auckland recently and learn about the extent of innovation in the wood processing and manufacturing sector. The forestry sector may be New Zealand’s third largest export earner, but raw logs make… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Key plucks $3b out of thin air – reckless and irresponsible
    John Key refuses to give up on his dream of tax cuts to the wealthy, despite being shot down by Bill English, and is resorting to plucking numbers out of thin air, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “On radio… ...
    1 week ago
  • John Key woefully out of touch on homelessness
    John Key is completely out of touch if he thinks desperate South Auckland families forced to live in cars can simply go to Work and Income for help, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Many of these families are working and… ...
    1 week ago

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