web analytics
The Standard

Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary

Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, June 7th, 2014 - 47 comments
Categories: election 2014, elections, polls - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnReposted from here. Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the latest Roy Morgan poll.

Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%.

This poll’s field period started just a few days after the Budget, and ended before the Banks stuff, so I think it is picking up a post-Budget spike for National and I do not think National will stay at this height for long.1 In addition, most of the poll was taken prior to the Laila Harre appointment was made, so I would not read much into Internet MANA’s poor joint showing.

Nonetheless, the poll shows that the centre-left parties have a big, big hill to climb in the remaining three-and-a-bit-months.

The poll also shows that Roy Morgan needs a new internal commentator on New Zealand politics. Building on the amusingly-naive claim a few weeks back that the Internet Party was busy building its support at the expense of the Conservatives, comes this week’s gem:

In addition the Greens (9%, down 4.5%) have slumped to their lowest level of support since before the last New Zealand election after announcing last weekend a proposal to introduce a Carbon Tax in New Zealand in place of the current Emissions Trading Scheme.

That announcement came out on the same day the poll closed. Eesh.

Unlike some others, I have a good amount of faith in the Roy Morgan polling method and in their estimates. But right now the commentary isn’t worth the pixels it is projected with.

1. This isn’t because soft voters are sitting around reading the Budget docs, believing them, then reading some Labour / Green / IM package later, and believing that instead. It is actually because soft voters remember a vague cue from the TV news or newspaper when they’re asked how they will vote. Just after the Budget, that vague memory is more likely to be of smiles and handshakes for a surplus. As those shots fade from the media, its effect fades from the polls.

lprent: Just by way of comparison, here are the equivalent figures for the first Roy Morgan poll taken fully after the budget in  2011, like the poll in the post above (ie to compare after two events)

Party 30 May-12 June 2011 Election 2011 19 May-1 June 2011
National  54.0  47.31  52.5
Labour  30.5  27.48  29.0
Green  5.5  11.06  9.0
Act  2.5  1.07  1.0
Maori  3.0  1.43  1.5
United Future 0.5  0.60  0.0
NZ First 3.5  6.59  4.5
Mana    1.08  0.5
Internet     0.5
Conservative    2.65  1.0

2011 poll: N+A+MP+UF = 60.0%, L+G+NZF = 39.5%

2014 poll: N+A+MP+UF+C = 56.0%, L+G+NZF = 43.5%

2011 election: N+A+MP+UF+C = 53.06%, L+G+NZF+M= 46.21%

The left block (assuming that percentages translate into seats) is in a far better position this June than they were in 2011 and this time there is no rugby world cup to distract voter attention. As Rob says; the government usually gets a significiant post-poll boost and that fades. Just like from the commentariat’ very short-term memory. hat-tip: colonial viper

47 comments on “Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary”

  1. Chooky 1

    “Bugger the polls…and bugger the pollsters” as Jim Bolger said.

    I think people are keeping their powder dry until they get into the voting booth.

  2. Tautoko Viper 2

    I agree with Frank Macskasy” view.
    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/07/the-secret-of-nationals-success-revealed/
    Let’s be respectful to our allies and all face the common enemy.
    “United we stand, divided we fall, ……..

    • David H 2.1

      Yeah Franks real good at this stuff.

    • Ant 2.2

      Totally way to much time attacking allies……it also doesn’t help that the left’s most visible commentators spend about 50% of their time attacking the left.

  3. weka 3

    How much notice does the MSM take of RM’s commentary?

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      Pretty much nil. But MSM generally only pretend that their polling is the only polling that exists. Although two recent cases earlier this year they seemed to collaboratively break out and talk about ‘wider polling’, the first case around January was when two polls came out showing opposite scenarios, and again around March showing National strongly up in a range of polls.

      • swordfish 3.1.1

        No. National took a hit in the March polls and the MSM got it entirely wrong. They were down 5 points with the Right Bloc down 3.

        As I mention here the MSM employed contrasting modes of poll analysis in February and March: the common denominator being that in both cases the methodology underlying their analysis favoured National. In February, the MSM did indeed “break out and talk about wider polling”. In doing so, they rightly highlighted the clear swing to National and the Right in that month.

        Unfortunately, in March, the MSM employed an extremely restrictive mode of analysis which, for instance, saw Gower depict the 3 News Reid Research Poll as Good for National and the Right and Bad for Labour and the Left – when, in fact, it was no such thing. The corollary of what I would call both the Time-lag effect and the Media Exclusive effect, possibly with a subtle (and sometimes not so subtle) underlying pro-National MSM partisanship.

        RM results are covered on a fairly regular basis in the MSM Print Media – albeit very briefly in those little one-paragraph side-bar stories.

        The thing that really intrigues me about RM is their unusually small proportion of Undecideds – far lower relative to the other 4 public polls. I’d like to know their precise methodology and its impact on accuracy.

        • swordfish 3.1.1.1

          In terms of Lynn’s point that the Left Bloc is currently in a far better position / Right Bloc in a far worse position than they were in 2011, see my various comments and figures here and here and one of the probable reasons for the consistent over-stating of National and Right Bloc support here.

          • swordfish 3.1.1.1.1

            National – Average Monthly Poll support 2014 relative to 2011

            Jan 2011 52 % 2014 45 % (down 7 points)
            Feb 2011 52 % 2014 49 % (down 3 points)
            March 2011 52 % 2014 46 % (down 6 points)
            April 2011 54 % 2014 46 % (down 8 points)
            May 2011 52 % 2014 49 % (down 3 points).
            (In June and July 2011, National’s support averaged 53 %)

            National – Average Monthly Poll support at same point in electoral cycle 2014 relative to 2011

            8 Months out from Election – 2011 52 % — 2014 45 % (down 7 points)
            7 Months – 2011 54 % — 2014 49 % (down 5 points)
            6 Months – 2011 52 % — 2014 46 % (down 6 points)
            5 Months – 2011 53 % — 2014 46 % (down 7 points)
            4 Months – 2011 53 % — 2014 49 % (down 4 points)

            • swordfish 3.1.1.1.1.1

              The corresponding figures for the Right Bloc 2014 relative to 2011 are:

              Jan down 7 points
              Feb down 2 points
              March down 5 points
              April down 9 points
              May down 4 points

              8 Months down 6 points
              7 Months down 5 points
              6 Months down 6 points
              5 Months down 9 points
              4 Months down 5 points

              • Colonial Viper

                Excellent could you tell us what the figures are for 3, 2, 1, and 0 months are 😛

                • swordfish

                  3 Months Down 22 points
                  2 Months Down 28 points
                  1 Month Down 35 points
                  Final Month Down 43 points

          • lprent 3.1.1.1.2

            Cool. Worth reading even if it is incomplete..

        • Lanthanide 3.1.1.2

          Roy Morgan polled me, on my cell-phone no-less. I asked them how they got the number and they said they did random calling, and that’s why they asked me for my postcode at the start of the poll so they could get a fair sample across the country.

          Other than that it seemed like any other regular poll. They also sent me out a paper booklet with about 40 pages of other consumer survey stuff which I filled out and got a $20 petrol voucher for. I expect they probably used the phone poll results when reporting their political polling, although IIRC the same questions were also in the booklet (but since that took a week to arrive and then return via mail, they can’t be using that when reporting the results).

          • swordfish 3.1.1.2.1

            Interesting, Lanth. Roy Morgan do seem to be the only company polling cell-phones as well as landline.

            It’d be very interesting to discover whether or not they prompt those who are initially undecided on the Party Vote question with the follow-up question ‘ “Is there a Party you’re more likely to vote for ?” or something similar. Because that kind of very broad, inclusive approach where prompted respondents are included in the final party support results seems to be One News Colmar Brunton’s modus operandi.

            And yet One News consistently records a far higher Undecided (even after the follow-up) – and therefore excluded sub-set than Roy Morgan. And I mean far higher.

  4. Tracey 4

    One reason why some people (including young and new voters) stay away from the polls if they think their vote is irrelevant cos the result is a forgone conclusion. This is why polls are so frequent, it reinforces a certain meme.

    I am not a fan of them and would like to see them gone, forever, and definitely a few months before an election.

    But its purpose? What does it serve? Not the people. It’s only serving the people if you think a poll is a good substitution for thinking.

    • karol 4.1

      Agreed.

    • Chooky 4.2

      +100

      • lurgee 4.2.1

        I love polls. Can’t get enough of them. Wish we had daily polls like YouGov d in Britain. though as I seem to be on some pollsters contact list, it would mean I’d be getting polled several times a week …

        I the left ‘bloc’ can not motivate people to vote for them or take an interest it is hardly the fault of pollsters. Perhaps the left ‘bloc’ should take a look at itself and wonder why people are not interested in what they have to say.

    • poem 4.3

      Totally agree Tracey, well said. I have no doubts that national is using polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink voters and demoralise the opposition.

  5. Chooky 5

    Martyn Bradbury on the Polls

    iPredict vs Roy Morgan Poll

    By Martyn Bradbury / June 6, 2014

    “I think ACT is over priced, Conservatives about right, IMP way too low and Greens I would buy up to 14%…..Two very different pictures are emerging between the iPredict market and the mainstream media polls.

    Roy Morgan’s this week was terrible for the Left, yet the iPredict markets are suggesting something very different.

    The iPredict Election show called the election closest last election and their read on National’s vote on election night suggests that punters acknowledge National are not doing nearly as well as the polls would have us believe. Punters willing to put their money where their mouth is say…

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/06/06/ipredict-vs-roy-morgan-poll/

    • fisiani 5.1

      Current ipredict odds of National PM 74%

      You can short this for a layout of just $26 and win $100

      • bad12 5.1.1

        Cling to that wont you Fisiani, ipredict have the National Party polling at 44%, that’s one hell of a big Opposition,(and there is no position that i know of with the title of Prime Minister of the Opposition)…

        • fisiani 5.1.1.1

          you obviously don’t understand how ipredict works.
          Let me explain
          buy a 74c prediction ofPM Nat and if correct you win another 26c
          buy a 44c vote share and National gets 51% then you win another 7c.
          The clever money goes on PM Nat.
          If you are so clever and know that it will be The Cunliffe then you can make a tidy profit very easily.

          • bad12 5.1.1.1.1

            fisiani, your idea of ”risk” and ”tidy profits” obviously suffer a way lower thresh-hold to enable participation in a ”gamble” than mine,

            Believing that you are a bottom feeder obviously leaves me unsurprised by this, however, a tidy profit is a subjective term, i mean an obvious chimp like you will probably happily gamble 15 bucks and if you win blow your tiny little mind over the 5 extra bucks you have,

            At the same time tho,should you lose as all small timers eventually do you have an innate ability to provoke amnesia inside what passes for brain matter in your cranial cavity,

            i think i will decline your offer to play the odds casting a vote or two on the day seems a far more efficacious route to community prosperity…

            • fisiani 5.1.1.1.1.1

              why call it a gamble? If you really know politics then ipredict just means taking money off the misguided. That is not a gamble. For instance take the safe Labour seat of Palmerston North with a fabulous and well known incumbent. His ipredict price last month was 84%. Nat win was 16% Then Jono Naylor was chosen as the National Party candidate. I bought shares. Price now for Labour to win in 49%. Which one will win. My money is on Jono. A rising tide lifts all boats and Jono is the 3 time and current Mayor of Palmerston North and better known than the incumbent Labour candidate. Note how I am not disclosing who he/she is. Not many would know that nobody. If you know PN politics better than me then you can DOUBLE your investment in just 4 months.

              • bad12

                Hell fisiani when i get into investing my hard earned cash in anything i double the money i put in on a weekly basis,

                Off you go now and play with your little toy, you will be able to go to the ware whare after the election with a lot of luck and buy yourself a real soft fluffy one, with a squeak too…

                • dave

                  If you thank that’s true you should consider running a ponzi scheme!

                  • bad12

                    If i thank anything was true dave i reckon i would probably consider running a pinzu scheme,

                    Along with your inability to either spell or use the provided edit function i see the crux of your argument as really really THICK,

                    When i wish to double my money weekly on the original investement i just turn up the volume on the sounds and flick the switch to fire up my otherwise dormant double set of quad 600’s…

              • chris73

                Yes but that would mean putting money where ones mouth is whereas the left prefer to use other peoples money-

                • Colonial Viper

                  Yes but that would mean putting money where ones mouth is whereas the left prefer to use other peoples money-

                  So does the corporate right wing.

                  See also: finance companies, investment banks, fund managers and property developers. Also BHP, owners of the Bluff smelter.

  6. Sanctuary 6

    Polls should be banned for 100 days before the election. It might even force the media to talk about policies.

    • freedom 6.1

      +1

    • Bearded Git 6.2

      +1

    • Colonial Viper 6.3

      I was thinking no polling activity 21 days before an election (to balance freedom of speech considerations), but yeah.

      • Tempted to say they can poll all they want if they don’t publish the results, lol, but that does introduce the possibility of push-polling.

        • Colonial Viper 6.3.1.1

          The problem is that unpublished results can still be “leaked” and cause a media frenzy…best to ban commercial polling activity altogether for the 3-4 weeks before election day, then let the media rattle on about pointless 2 month old polls if they want to. (Also avoids the problem of censoring newspapers from printing news…)

    • poem 6.4

      +1Sanctuary Would like to see polls ditched permanently.

  7. bad12 7

    The data sets showing the actual numbers of all the Roy Morgan polls as opposed to the squiggly line one above is also an eye-opener,

    Sorry i haven’t got a link for it but it was linked to in ‘Open Mike’ the other day, what the actual numbers show tho is that the National vote keeps swinging wildly up and down, up,down,up down, over great swathes of the poll printed showing the actual numbers swinging not by a % or two but by 5% over 4–6 week periods,(like Roy cannot make up His mind),

    i find it hard to believe that the electorate as a whole engages in swings of that nature over such short time-frames…

    • lprent 7.1

      They have a particularly small sample size. But they are a lot more frequent.

      • lurgee 7.1.1

        I tend to assume individual RM polls are anything up to +/- 5%. So a bunch of them might give a fairly accurate idea, but by themselves pretty worthless. We can safely say National are more popular than Labour, but not much more than that.

        • lprent 7.1.1.1

          So a bunch of them might give a fairly accurate idea, but by themselves pretty worthless.

          Agreed for a single poll. However in this case I was at looking at the reaction immediately past an reproducible effect after an event that usually happens every year.

          If you look at the wikipedia link in that post you’ll find that there is a pretty clear pattern of post-budget polls for several years giving a significiant boost to the right bloc (especially National). If you went back further, you’d find that most post-budget polls usually strongly favour the main government party of the day (there are some obvious exceptions to that – the “mother of all budgets” being one of them).

          If you looked at a short rolling average you’ll see a consistent pattern showing a strong lift preceding and especially just after the budget for the main governing party. Which is exactly what you see for a number of years. I only bothered to look at it for 2009-2014 but it is there every year as a clear pattern.

          Not to mention that much of the variance between parties are within the overall right bloc and left blocs – which minimizes much of the ‘noise’.

          That is why I picked the way I presented it – as bloc votes after a recurring annual event. I could have dumped a frigging great badly organised spreadsheet or some of the messy R work that back the simple version that I gave as a example. But really why bother when most people won’t read it anyway.

      • swordfish 7.1.2

        Yep, Roy Morgan usually have a smaller sample (800-900) than 3 of the 4 other Public Polls. The exception is the Herald-Digipoll which has a sample of just 750.

        Roy Morgan, however, do vary their sample size and occasionally, just occasionally, they use a much larger sample (eg 1500 in early Jan 2014). Possibly part of an Omnibus survey.

        • lprent 7.1.2.1

          Interesting. I wasn’t aware of the larger sample sizes.

          It is a bit irritating the way that they don’t really state their margins of error for each poll. Trying to infer a non-linear value on just two points is ridiculously daft.

  8. Bearded Git 8

    Last 10 Roy Morgan’s. Nats v Lab/Green. Looks to me like the last poll was an outlier.

    43.5 46 +2.5
    47 44 -3
    48 42 -6
    48.5 41 -7.5
    45.5 45.5 –
    43 45 +2
    48.5 40 -8.5
    42.5 45.5 +3
    45.5 44 -1.5
    52.5 38 -14.5

    • geoff 8.1

      That’s a nice way to compare, BG. Cheers.

      I did a quick calculation, excluding the last outlier, and the average difference between the 2 blocs is Labour/Green -2.1. I did this by adding up the first 9 numbers and dividing by 9.

      If you include the last one you get an average difference of -3.35.

    • Lanthanide 8.2

      Possible outlier, but also budget effect.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Singing the Budget Blues
    Despite our 'rock star' economy over the past three years it has not increased Government income to the level expected and the Government has not been able to deliver its promised surplus. If income doesn't change, but priorities shift, then the… ...
    12 hours ago
  • Submit on Mill Rd
    Julie-Anne Genter, the Transport spokesperson of the Green Party has put out the following press release on the Mill Rd project that we have written about here, and here: Take 5 minutes and make a submission on Mill Road Auckland Transport is… ...
    Transport BlogBy Patrick Reynolds
    17 hours ago
  • Budget Blues
    Twenty five dollars a week can’t be bad, can it? For families on the breadline, it’s surely better than nothing and every little helps. And when the total spend is $790 million, that’s not peanuts, is it? – even if… ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    17 hours ago
  • Punakaiki Fund and Snowball Effect
    22 May 2015 Punakaiki Fund will soon be presenting an offer through the Snowball Effect platform. We are pleased to announce that we have selected Snowball Effect to present our fund raising offer to members of the public. Equity crowdfunding… ...
    Lance WiggsBy Lance Wiggs
    17 hours ago
  • Anniversary of Sri Lankan Tamil Massacre
    This is not going to be a happy story but if the Green Party of Aotearoa doesn’t want to know who else will? May 18th marks the anniversary of what is known as the ‘Mullivaikal massacre’ of Tamils in 2009 at… ...
    frogblogBy Catherine Delahunty
    17 hours ago
  • Game review: Republique
    Score: 6/10 Republique is an episodic stealth game set in a dystopian society. You play a hacker who is aiding the escape of Hope, a young woman trapped in this world. Though the games attempt to deal with heavy themes… ...
    18 hours ago
  • Rodeo: ‘Family entertainment’ or animal abuse?
    Recently  TVNZ ran a story with confronting footage showing rodeo animals being punched, repeatedly shocked with electronic prods and having their tails violently twisted over their backs. It was clear that significant force was being used behind the scenes to make… ...
    frogblogBy Mojo Mathers
    18 hours ago
  • Labour MPs are taking it to the Government in the House over their destruct...
    ...
    19 hours ago
  • The price of rotten cops IV
    Remember the Nelson Red Devils case? Back in 2012, drugs and firearms charges against 28 alleged gang members were thrown out because police abused the court process by forging a search warrant and an arrest warrant to build the credibility… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    19 hours ago
  • Best and worst New Zealand flag designs
    Dan Taipua, Dave Bell and Lucy Zee review some of the designs submitted for the for the new New Zealand flag. Check out the full gallery of designs here. ...
    19 hours ago
  • World News Brief, Friday May 22
    PunditBy Daily Digest
    19 hours ago
  • A hard rain is a’gonna fall.
    Although I am loathe to prognosticate on fluid situations and current events, I have been thinking about how the conflict in Iraq has been going. Although I do not believe that the Islamic State (IS) is anywhere close to being… ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    20 hours ago
  • Got business out of town? Need a hire car?
    Whether you are heading of town for a conference or taking a break and need a hire car, your TEU Member Advantage program has you covered.  Use your member benefits to access either reduced car hire rates or excess on… ...
    20 hours ago
  • An abuse of the OIA
    In the wake of revelations that Prime Minister John Key had systematically and repeatedly bullied, sexually harassed and assaulted a cafe waitress, the New Zealand Herald published a piece exposing the victim. It seemed like retribution, and the involvement of… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    20 hours ago
  • Saying it Loud on Climate in Christchurch
    The Government’s Christchurch consultation meeting on New Zealand’s emission targets was inspiring – not for what was in the Ministry for the Environment’s (MFE’s) defeatist video about the obstacles to changing to a low carbon future, but for what the… ...
    frogblogBy Eugenie Sage
    21 hours ago
  • Calling Peak Car?
    There’s often a lot of discussion around the future of transport – particularly in cities. We’ve talked many times before about how transport trends are changing, how we’re seeing people drive less and catch PT more, how changing preferences amongst younger people in… ...
    21 hours ago
  • Australia’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy on...
    The prohibition against torture is one of the cast-iron features of international law. You're not allowed to torture people, and you're not allowed to return or extradite people to a country where there are substantial grounds to believe they will… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    21 hours ago
  • Fiji: Removing the opposition
    Last year, Nauru's government abused its parliamentary majority to suspend the opposition from Parliament on a spurious privilege motion. Its a disease which is spreading: last night, Fiji's "democratic" regime did the same, suspending an opposition MP for making a… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    22 hours ago
  • Budget 2015: Don’t worry about the surplus, worry about this… Whiteboar...
    Bill’s budget put a bit of extra change in the pocket of poor families, but that came at the cost of the promised surplus. But should you be worried about it? With government debt still only at 25%… ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy Gareth Morgan
    22 hours ago
  • The productivity trap – heads they win, tails we lose
    The article below was written in 2006, so some of the stats are a bit dated.  However the fundamental argument remains.  For instance, NZ productivity growth continues to be poor and NZ capitalists remain behind most of the OECD in… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    22 hours ago
  • Attention leftie campaigners: Watch Lynton Crosby
    This is a video of Lynton Crosby, of Crosby/Textor fame and infamy, talking about how he approaches campaigns. It is well worth an hour of any serious campaigner's time - whether they're of the left or the right. I've… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    22 hours ago
  • Hard News: Friday Music: Out there in the world
    Friday Music posts here don't generally have much to do with my day job helping make a media TV show, but next week's Media Take is an exception. We're putting together a New Zealand music month-themed programme and one of the… ...
    22 hours ago
  • Government announces plan to grow Auckland housing bubble
    The key initiative in yesterday’s budget is a plan to grow Auckland’s housing bubble. Auckland’s housing bubble is projected to take over from dairy farming as the fastest-growing sector of the New Zealand economy. Consider a typical Mangere housewife. For… ...
    Can of wormsBy Can of Worms, Opened
    23 hours ago
  • Paul F Tompkins: The undisputed king of podcasts
    When Paul F Tompkins got into comedy in the mid 1980s, the formats with which he’s achieved most renown and popularity didn’t actually exist. “None of them did!” he yells, laughing, into the phone during an interview about stage… ...
    23 hours ago
  • Budget 2015: What does it mean?
    ...
    24 hours ago
  • What next?
    It feels really, really surreal to nearly be done with my degree. And terrifying, mostly. Right now I have a single 2000 word essay remaining for Politics of Protest and then three exams mid-way through next month, and… that’s it.… ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    1 day ago
  • Solo parents forced to work; but where are the quality jobs?
    The Government is increasing the expectations of paid work from solo parents without any thought as to where the jobs will be, the Council of Trade Unions said today. “There are already 100,000 part time workers who are wanting more secure… ...
    CTUBy andrew.chick
    1 day ago
  • April-15 Patronage
    Another month and another good patronage result from Auckland Transport – particularly for rail. Patronage in April is naturally down on the madness that is March due to the combination of a 30 day month, ANZAC day, Easter and School Holidays/Uni holidays.… ...
    1 day ago
  • April-14 Patronage
    Another month and another good patronage result from Auckland Transport – particularly for rail. Patronage in April is naturally down on the madness that is March due to the combination of a 30 day month, ANZAC day, Easter and School Holidays/Uni holidays.… ...
    1 day ago
  • Children and steady-as-you-go – but how steady?
    There are three political dimensions to the budget’s star “children in hardship” item. One is John Key’s ownership. That fits his protestations of concern about disadvantaged children — though action has been slow coming. He made his pile in… ...
    Colin JamesBy Colin James
    1 day ago
  • Thoughts on budget 2015
    There’s a Herald summary here. I’ve been saying for a while that ‘neoliberalism’ – ie a belief in the efficacy of free markets, the distortionary evil of taxes and benefits and the minimalisation of the state – is dead. There… ...
    DimPostBy danylmc
    1 day ago
  • What if your MP was decided on the flip of a coin?
    The provincial election in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island finally came to an end a couple of days ago when its last MLA was declared elected following a judicial recount.(What - you didn't know that Prince Edward Island… ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    1 day ago
  • Gordon Campbell on Budget 2015
    From the outset, the slogan for yesterday’s Budget – “The Plan Is Working” – begged to be mocked. There’s actually a plan for the national economy? Who knew? And its been working for whom, exactly? Not for families in poverty,… ...
    2 days ago
  • Building better connections between Asia and the Pacific
    Speech – New Zealand Government I am delighted to have the opportunity to speak at this International Conference on the Future of Asia.22 May 2015 Building better connections between Asia and the Pacific (speech delivered to 2015 Nikkei Forum, Tokyo,… ...
    Its our futureBy ScoopBlogPush
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2015: Media releases and tertiary education coverage
    We will update this page over the next few days with media releases and news stories on Budget 2015 and its effect on tertiary education and on employment. Radio NZ: Govt tightens education purse strings The Government is expecting fewer… ...
    2 days ago
  • Helping Our Heritage Come Alive – Mt Eden Rd
    This is an image from Mark Bishop. Here are the previous posts: Queen and Wellesley, Newton Rd, Kingsland These images were developed by merging together various historic black and white photographs (all from the “Sir George Grey Special Collection” –… ...
    2 days ago
  • Budget 2015 shows no plans for public sector wages
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says this budget does not address the wage rises needed across the public sector. ...
    2 days ago
  • Don’t expect to see chemical safety data sheets in restaurants
    I keep coming across this very naive form of chemophobic scare-mongering – the use of safety data sheets to frighten consumers about trace chemicals in their environment, food and drink. Here is an example anti-fluoridation propagandists continually use – safety data… ...
    2 days ago
  • World News Brief, Thursday May 21
    PunditBy Daily Digest
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: Mediaworks: The only horizon they see
    When it emerged last month that Campbell Live was facing the axe, I ventured that Mediaworks had become far more Julie Christie's company than it was John Campbell's. And I think that's the reality behind the news that Campbell Live… ...
    2 days ago
  • Andrew’s little Poem
    by Don Franks Twas the night before Budget When just for a change Andrew Little’s thought’s did more widely range Labour’s leader cast round in his mind for an angle On which a publicity moment might dangle Some little device… ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • One good thing
    Today's budget is a dismal affair, as the government shuffles money around and announces new spending while conveniently forgetting to mention that its a sub-inflation rise and that health and education are going backwards - as they have every year… ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Budget tougher for students – NZUSA and TEU media release
    Lowering the annual fee increases for students from 4 percent to 3 percent means universities, polytechnics and wānanga will have less money, say national student and staff unions NZUSA and TEU. Slightly slower fee rises are no good if the… ...
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Lala-land forecasts on housing investment
    Some of the forecasts in the Budget beggar belief, and when they almost inevitably turn out wrong they spell disaster for New Zealand families. Here’s the clearest example. In the last year, investment in residential property ballooned by 16%. In… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Cynical bribery on the horizon
    Bill English has said time and again that new spending initiatives of around $1 billion each year are the responsible thing to do, and are the new normal. And, in the next two years, he is as good as… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Share of the economy going to workers continues to fall
    The BEFU documents today have unwelcome news for workers. Over the next four years, the share of the economy that ends up in the hands of workers through their wages will fall by around 1.3%. That 1.3% of GDP,… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago
  • Bill English’s Budget illustrates complexity in welfare system
    Budget 2015 has been touted as a package for the poor. And it certainly delivers them more money. However, it gives with one hand and takes away with the other, revealing the confusing and perverse nature of our welfare system.… ...
    Gareth’s WorldBy Geoff Simmons
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Pathetic half-measure on housing
    Yesterday, Paddy Gower thought he had a big scoop. He had leaked Budget docs alluding to a big government-lead house-building programme in Auckland. Today, the pathetic truth is revealed. The Budget puts only $52.2m – as a one off –… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Good idea on child poverty. Pity about the tinkering package.
    I can only speak personally, but I am genuinely pleased that the government is following through on its promise to focus on child poverty. New Zealand’s rates of child poverty are appalling, and anything that helps to bring them down… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago
  • Blah Budget: Why there won’t be a surplus next year, either.
    Having failed to reach surplus in this, his promised year, Bill English looks set to fail next year, too. Having been over-optimistic this year to the tune of almost $1.2b – comparing BEFU 2014 to BEFU 2015 - Treasury has… ...
    PolityBy Rob Salmond
    2 days ago

  • Another new tax, another broken promise
    National has unveiled yet another new tax in this budget – a rural broadband levy that will almost certainly result in an immediate price hike for internet and telephone connections across New Zealand, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said “The… ...
    17 hours ago
  • Anniversary of Sri Lankan Tamil Massacre
    This is not going to be a happy story but if the Green Party of Aotearoa doesn’t want to know who else will? May 18th marks the anniversary of what is known as the ‘Mullivaikal massacre’ of Tamils in 2009 at… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    17 hours ago
  • Labour MPs join youth to take part in 40 hour famine
    A team of Labour MPs took part in the 2015 World Vision 40 hour famine and we were told by World Vision and the young people, that it was the first time MPs had joined them and how appreciative they… ...
    18 hours ago
  • Rodeo: ‘Family entertainment’ or animal abuse?
    Recently  TVNZ ran a story with confronting footage showing rodeo animals being punched, repeatedly shocked with electronic prods and having their tails violently twisted over their backs. It was clear that significant force was being used behind the scenes to make… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    18 hours ago
  • Budget puts the squeeze on police
    The Government has cut funding to the New Zealand police force in the latest Budget, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The reduction is a whopping $15.3 million that could put front line officers at risk. ...
    18 hours ago
  • Crucial social services take another hit
    The Government looks set to slash half a million dollars of funding for critical social services, including Women’s Refuge and Barnados, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni “Taking $500,000 from organisations aimed at improving the lives of vulnerable families… ...
    19 hours ago
  • Saying it Loud on Climate in Christchurch
    The Government’s Christchurch consultation meeting on New Zealand’s emission targets was inspiring – not for what was in the Ministry for the Environment’s (MFE’s) defeatist video about the obstacles to changing to a low carbon future, but for what the… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    21 hours ago
  • Budget silent on small business
    The Government has completely ignored one of the most important sectors of the economy – small and medium-sized enterprises – in Budget 2015, Labour’s Small Business spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. "A stunning 41 per cent of jobs were created by… ...
    21 hours ago
  • Thank you John, it’s been bloody marvellous
    The departure of John Campbell is a blow to current affairs investigative journalism, Labour’s Broadcasting Spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Campbell Live stood out in its field. Its axing comes as local broadcasting in New Zealand remains in a state of… ...
    21 hours ago
  • KiwiSaver cut shows no long-term plan
    National’s cutting of the KiwiSaver kickstart is incredibly short-term thinking, typical of a Budget that is woefully short on ideas to generate wealth and opportunity, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “New Zealand’s savings rate is far too low. KiwiSaver… ...
    24 hours ago
  • National hits the panic button for its 7th Budget
    National has hit the panic button for its 7th Budget in a desperate attempt to look like they’re taking action to reduce our shameful child poverty rates, but they are giving with one hand and taking with the other, Opposition… ...
    2 days ago
  • Panic and back-flips can’t hide twin deficits
    National’s token measures to fight fires they have left burning for seven long years can’t hide a Budget that is long on broken promises, short on vision and fails to reach surplus, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “After being… ...
    2 days ago
  • Auckland land measure seven years too late
    National are so desperate to look like they are doing something about the Auckland housing crisis they have dusted off Labour’s 2008 inventory of government land available for housing and re-announced it, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Despite National… ...
    2 days ago
  • Access to gender reassignment surgery essential
    I was frankly disgusted to hear the Minister for Health say that funding gender reassignment surgeries is a “nutty idea”. A recent study found that in New Zealand 1% of young people identified themselves as transgender, and 3% were unsure… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 days ago
  • Global milk prices now lowest in 6 years
    The latest fall in the global dairy price has brought it to the lowest level in six years and shows there must be meaningful action in tomorrow’s Budget to diversify the economy, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Dairy prices… ...
    3 days ago
  • Big risks as CYF checks stopped
    Revelations that Child, Youth and Family is no longer assisting home-based early childhood educators by vetting potential employees should set alarm bells ringing, Labour Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Doing away with an extra mechanism for checking potential new employees… ...
    4 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    4 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    4 days ago
  • State of origin
    Kiwis are increasingly concerned about the food they give their families. New Zealand consumers have the right to know where their food has come from, particularly when it involves animals, and should be able to expect our Government to label… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    4 days ago
  • Relationships Aotearoa
    It is disturbing that Relationships Aotearoa, a voluntary organisation set up in 1949 to help couples struggling with their relationships following the upheavals of World War II, may be forced to close, says Acting Spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community… ...
    4 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    4 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    4 days ago
  • House prices to a crack $1 million in 17 months
    The average Auckland home is on track to cost $1 million in 17 months’ time if nothing substantial is done to rein in soaring price rises, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Auckland’s house prices have skyrocketed 63 per cent… ...
    4 days ago
  • Vital support services can’t be left in lurch
    The National Government has big questions to answer about how a provider of services to thousands of vulnerable New Zealanders is set to fold, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. Relationships Aotearoa which provides support and counselling to families, individuals… ...
    5 days ago
  • Treasury and IRD on a capital gains tax
    Both the Treasury and IRD have been advising the National Government on the benefits of a capital gains tax. Documents released to the Green Party under an Official Information Act request show that John Key has been selective with the… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    5 days ago
  • Charity legislation needs review
    It is unacceptable that the big corporate based charities claim  millions in annual income tax exemptions, while small community based and operated non-profit organisations  struggle to gain official charity status, Labour’s acting spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community Sector Louisa… ...
    5 days ago
  • John’s panic-Key response to housing crisis
    John Key needs to tell New Zealanders what caused his sudden change of heart that led to the Government’s scrambled and last-minute housing measures, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “The Prime Minister’s sudden rush of blood to his head followed… ...
    5 days ago
  • Keep our Assets Christchurch Campaign: An update
    I recently presented my submission to keep Christchurch Council assets at the Christchurch City Council’s public hearings on its 10 year plan on 13 May. The hearings are live-streamed and recorded so you can watch them on www.ccc.govt.nz. The Council’s… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    5 days ago
  • John Key finally admits there’s a housing crisis
    John Key’s weak measures to rein in the astronomical profits property speculators are making are an admission – finally – that there is a housing crisis, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “But yet again National is tinkering with the housing… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government stifles voices in CYFs review
    The Government’s exclusion of the Māori Women’s Welfare League in a panel on the future of CYFs is a cynical ploy to stifle views, says Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “It's unbelievable that a significant review on the future… ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the Otago Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you very much for the opportunity to be here today. It’s a pleasure as always to be back in the town that raised me. Growing up in St Kilda meant that there was one thing that was a big… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key can’t just be Prime Minister for Parnell
    John Key must show New Zealanders in next week’s Budget that he is more than the Prime Minister for Parnell, and is also the Prime Minister for Pine Hill, Putararu and Palmerston North, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. In… ...
    1 week ago
  • Stop the conversions
    This week, some Waikato locals took me and intrepid photographer Amanda Rogers on a tour of some  lakes and waterways in their region, and up to the massive dairy conversions in the upper catchment of the Waikato River. It… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • More regional jobs go in Corrections reshape
    News that 194 Corrections staff are to lose their jobs will have ramifications not only for them and their families but for the wider community, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. Prison units at Waikeria, Tongariro and Rimutaka face closure… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government’s climate meetings off to a bumpy start
    On Wednesday, I attended a hui and an evening meeting that the Government had organised in Nelson as part of its climate change consultation tour, to support the Nelson community telling the Government to take meaningful action on climate change.… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Taxpayers the only ones left feeling blue
    Ministry of Social Development bosses could have saved themselves thousands of dollars in consultants’ fees by providing staff with rose-tinted spectacles, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. A report out today reveals the Ministry is spending over half a… ...
    1 week ago
  • Why are the regions still facing restrictions?
    Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford is questioning why the regions should continue to be saddled with LVR lending restrictions announced by the Reserve Bank today. “Labour has been calling for the regions to be exempted from LVRs for the best… ...
    1 week ago
  • The high costs of weak environmental regulation
    Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere is described on the Department of Conservation website as “Canterbury’s largest and New Zealand’s fifth largest [lake], and an internationally important wildlife area.” But the lake is also polluted by nutrients leaching from farms in the catchment.… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • Submissions to Wellington City Council on their Gambling Venues Policy
    Every three years Councils across the country are required to check that their gambling venue policies are still fit for purpose and they can choose to consult on their policy if they are thinking of making changes. Councils don’t have… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Reserve Bank action shows Govt out of touch and out of ideas
    The Reserve Bank’s unprecedented measures today show it understands the serious risks of the overheating housing market – in complete contrast to John Key’s refusal to acknowledge the crisis, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The Bank is right to… ...
    1 week ago
  • Send us your snaps: 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year we've hit a milestone. We're turning 25.To help celebrate a quarter of a century, please send us your photos from the last 25 years of the Green Party Aotearoa New Zealand! Note: Photos must be jpg, gif or… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year the Green Party sends 25. To help us celebrate a quarter of a century please send us you photos of 25 years of the Green Party!Photos must be jpg,gif or png and smaller than 2MB. If you are… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bay growth plan too little too late
    Today’s Bay of Plenty growth study from MBIE is another example of Government spin - lots of talk but little action, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “This is a region that desperately needs to develop the downstream processing… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government bows to ACC pressure
     The Government has finally buckled to pressure from Labour and the New Zealand public in making a half billion dollar cut to ACC levies, but the full benefits are two years away,” says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “$500 million over… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • False figures cloud Auckland transport facts
    The Prime Minister should apologise and issue a correction after both he and Transport Minister Simon Bridges have been caught out misrepresenting facts on Auckland’s transport spending, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. "Both John Key and Simon Bridges have… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt books confirm National can’t post surplus
    The last publication of the Government’s books before the budget shows National will break its promise of seven years and two election campaigns and fail to get the books in order, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government is… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • US state joins NZ with GE food labelling
    New Zealand has a similar law making the labelling of many GE foods compulsory, but the Government seems to let it slide.  Because the government has not monitored or enforced our GE food labelling laws since 2003, it seems the… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour Pays Tribute to Erima Henare
    “E ua e te ua tata rahi ana, Ko te hua i te kamo taheke i runga raa. No reira e te rangatira Erima takoto mai I roto I te ringa o Ihowa o nga Mano e moe e.” ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere