The Salesman

Written By: - Date published: 2:20 pm, July 20th, 2009 - 12 comments
Categories: economy, national/act government - Tags:

One of the stories from John Key’s days as a currency trader is that he was always more of a salesman than an analyst. He wasn’t good at picking markets and investments; he was good at getting people to trust him with their money. He got New Zealanders to put their trust in him too but he’s still no good at understanding the economy.

December 6: Key: “the NZD will print with a four in front of it at some point against the U.S. dollar’ ie. the currency will drop below 50 cents US. To be fair, it did dip just below 50, for four days but Key got the trend of the exchange rate exactly backwards. Now it’s getting up to 65 cents US.

April 16: “[Key] is betting that a falling Kiwi dollar will naturally allow the current account deficit to correct itself over the next one to two years’ This statement shows a fundamental misunderstanding of currency markets. Commodity currencies like the Kiwi were always going to start rising as soon as recovery was on the horizon. When investors are nervous about the world economy, they get out of out of the NZD, causing the price to drop. When recovery is coming, the appetite for risk starts to return, and up goes the price of the NZD.

1 July: Key: “[the] budget delivered a credit upgrade, not a downgrade”. He doesn’t understand (or pretends not to understand) the difference between a change in credit outlook and a change in credit grade. Remember, Key told us the Cullen Fund had to be slashed, Kiwisaver had to be cut, R&D spending had to go to avoid the negative judgement of the ratings agencies. Now Fitch has put us on negative credit watch saying ‘government debt isn’t a problem, the problem is you’re not saving enough, you’re not investing enough in R&D so your exports aren’t competitive enough and you have to import all your high-tech, and you can’t just keep on borrowing to speculate on housing’. Key cut exactly the government investment we need to correct those problems. Now he’s trying to weasel out of his cock-up by announcing that Fitch doesn’t matter.. hmm, tell that to the markets.

July 17: This last one’s slightly facetious but I think it illustrates that this guy isn’t the economic heavyweight we were sold. “[Key] met three Havelock North High School pupils selling.. socks for $9.99 a pair for charity. [Key said] this could be the way to fix the deficit “7.7 billion pairs”. Umm, 7.7 billion times $9.99 is $77 billion. The deficit is $7.7 billion.

With over 2000 Kiwis a week losing their jobs, we’re still waiting for the Key government to do anything to ‘take the sharpest edges off the recession’ as promised. We’ll have to keep waiting. The fact is, Key doesn’t have any answers and he doesn’t really care.

12 comments on “The Salesman ”

  1. I kinda think this post is scrapping the bottom of the barrel marty… surely of all the criticisms that could be launched at Mr Key you could do better than the above list.

    nb. shortly after Key’s December 6 ‘prediction’ about the NZD, it dropped below 50c and stayed there (or abouts) for almost my entire over seas trip. trust me i remember, it blew my budget 🙁

  2. tsmithfield 2

    I think you’re overstretching by quite a lot to have a ping at Key.

    1. The direction of the currency is very difficult to pick, even for the experts. A case in point. I was looking to hedge against the Auzzie when the NZ was quite high against it a few weeks ago. The currency expert at the BNZ advised me not to take too much because the Kiwi was on its way up. So I took 100k instead of 200k. The very next day the Kiwi slipped back down again.

    2. The value of the dollar will increase as the world economy strengthens. However, I doubt it is going to get to the heights of 80 cents against the US, as it did when the world economy was very bullish. Even though confidence is slowly returning to the world markets, it is unlikely to be anything like the level it was in the extreme bull market preceding the fall. Therefore, the NZ currency is likely to be relatively low for quite a while. So, to this extent, I think Key is right.

    3. Granted. However, I think the terms “upgrade” “downgrade” etc tend to be thrown around a bit loosely. While techinically going onto negative watch or whatever may not be a downgrade, in the eyes of our potential financiers, it may well be a downgrade or upgrade. So, it depends on how you look at it.

    4. Well, 77 billion would certainly fix the deficit, and some. So, it could be argued that Key got this very right.

    So far as unemployment goes, our rate is far less than the US and many of our trading partners. There is a lot of stuff being done behind the scenes to make doing business easier. I have pointed several times to the change in GST threshold for the payments method as an example that has helped us. Given that increased unemployment is agreed by most to increase in the current conditions, and given that we are much better off than most, then the evidence suggests that the steps the government has taken is working.

    So far as financial literacy is concerned, what do you all think of Phil Goffs idea of paying the unemployment benefit to people who lose their jobs, even if their partners are earning hundreds of thousands per year?

    • Bright Red 2.1

      If you consider anything below 80 cents US to be ‘relatively low’ you’re always going to consider it low.

      When Key said he expected the dollar fall low enough to redress the current account deficit – it was at 57 cents, which is historically a pretty average number. It dropped to 55 cents shortly after but has risen nearly constantly since. It hasn’t been below 60 cents since the start of May. It’s not going to go down like he said.

      Currency markets are hard to predict with detail but that the dollar would start to rise (along with stockmarkets) at the mid point in the global recession was not.

  3. Bright Red 3

    Nah, jake. the NZD rose in the days after Key spoke from 54 to touching 60.. then it dropped away, touched 49.2 for a day and leapt back up into the 60s. http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1248042361210&chddm=231677&q=CURRENCY:NZDUSD&ntsp=0

    Key made that statement, what 7 months ago? For five of those months, the dollar has been higher than it was when he made his prediction that it was going to dramatically drop.

  4. Pat 4

    “He wasn’t good at picking markets and investments; he was good at getting people to trust him with their money.”

    Mathematically the equation reads:

    John Key > Mark Briers + Bernie Madoff.

    Because John Key never got caught. Instead he became Prime Minister. Undoubtedly he is an evil genious, the likes of which this country has never seen.

    .

    • stormspiral 4.1

      Na. No genius. I think he’s just dumb and plausible. Gambler’s luck.

      • BLiP 4.1.1

        John Key is the bankers’ unwitting front man, especially groomed for years, packed and branded by Crosby/Textor and foisted onto a gullible poplace.

  5. Mike 5

    That “take the sharpest edges off the recession” line cracks me up every time Key repeats it.

    It reminds me of old stoner flatmates smoking weed for breakfast to “take the edge off the day”.

  6. Ari 6

    You do realise that it costs money to make socks, right? There’s a big difference between revenue and profit. 😉

  7. mike 7

    Do you have anymore pics of JK looking tired Marty? Although not quite as desperate as this it adds a little colour your pathetic campaign..

  8. sk 8

    When John Key was the opposition finance spokesman his only bright idea was that New Zealand should follow Ireland . .. we don’t hear much of that these days

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5857074/Fiscal-ruin-of-the-Western-world-beckons.html

    This post is not scraping the bottom of the barrel . . The reality is that beyond ‘minding the store’, it is not apparent that the PM has a thought in his head in terms of new policy . .. or an effective direction for NZ to be taking.

    This makes his ‘predictions’ fair game. .. or the better question is, what is the Prime Minister even doing making currency predictions??

  9. crack on fellas. The laughing is not at key, its that you are stupid enough to think there is any point in your continued smear. Key made a great deal of money in currency and stupid people do not make money in currency. Your suggestions imply desperation and are on a par with claiming Santa Claus really does exist to adults.

    Sensible people forecasting currency may predict a target or a direction over a time period but never both. Key was right and you are bagging him for it.

    What is interesting is that the previous low of .38 to the dollar (1997 I believe) implies there is now an 11c risk on US default/US inflation premium vis a vis the NZD built into the trough of the rate. The socialist Obama spending plans are forcing a rethink in US economic direction.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolution
    New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    29 mins ago
  • Speech to the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • $571 million for Defence pay and projects
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Climate change – mitigating the risks and costs
    New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Getting new job seekers on the pathway to work
    Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Accelerating Social Investment
    A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says.  “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Getting Back on Track
    Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with  your Board and team, for hosting me.   I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
    Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith,   Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States,   Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us.   Ladies and gentlemen -    In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Therapeutic Products Act to be repealed
    The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District Plan
    The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violence
    Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston.  “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs less
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Report provides insights into marine recovery
    New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ to send political delegation to the Pacific
    Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region.   The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu.    “New Zealand has deep and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Low gas production threatens energy security
    There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co.  Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Defence industry talent, commitment recognised
    Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry
    Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data Summit
    It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government.  I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Ceasefire agreement needed now: Peters
    New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Daily school attendance data now available
    A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour.  The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Ambassador to United States appointed
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America.    “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says.    “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New permit proposed for recreational gold mining
    The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiations
    Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to sign
    New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Next stop NASA for New Zealand students
    Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crime
    New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • OECD reinforces need to control spending
    The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for Auckland
    The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with Germany
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today.    "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of Plenty
    The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to New Zealand China Council
    Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today.    Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi households
    The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government recommits to equal pay
    The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says.  “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Transforming how our children learn to read
    Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.  “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ not backing down in Canada dairy dispute
    Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable children
    The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Streamlining Building Consent Changes
    The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.      “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)
    New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...
    Good evening –   Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Accelerating airport security lines
    From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-05-10T17:41:04+00:00