A Democrat Senate Majority

21 comments on “A Democrat Senate Majority ”

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1. Dot 1

   26 February 2020 at 9:59 am

   Good information there Advantage, thank you
2. Bill 2

   26 February 2020 at 10:05 am

   A movement is like a rising tide that raises all boats, no? How many and how high will be seen soon enough.
3. Phil 3

   26 February 2020 at 10:06 am

   They won’t win everything back they got last time

   Doug Jones (D) was lucky to come up against the completely vile Roy Moore in Alabama, in the 2017 special election after Jeff Sessions became Trump's AG. In 2020 Jones is likely to be defending against… Jeff Sessions. Sessions is a completely different kind of vile to Moore, but is broadly liked by Alabaman's and should take that seat back into Republican hands.

   Other than that, I don't see much on the map where I'd be worried of another Republican gain.
   • Andre 3.1

     26 February 2020 at 11:12 am

     I can envisage a scenario where Bernie becomes the nominee, then the Spraytan Stalin becomes ever more deranged and Bernie also doubles down on stuff that plays well to his base but is unappealing to the broader electorate, then places like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico could hold their noses and vote for Bernie but then vote Repug for House and Senate. Specifically to rid themselves of the Mandarin Manutang, but also to put a handbrake on Bernie so he can't in turn do outrageous stuff.

     That applies even more strongly to the senate seats that are currently Repug but are pickup opportunities for the Dems.
     • Phil 3.1.1

       26 February 2020 at 5:20 pm

       Bernie becomes the nominee… then places like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico could hold their noses and vote for Bernie but then vote Repug for House and Senate.

       I see where you're coming from, but I tend to discount the probability of that happening. The trend in the US is strongly *toward* tribalism and down-the-line voting, not away from it. I think it would take a very weird set of factors to generate voter decision making like you suggest.

       Plus, there's now four years of documented evidence of Republican representatives and senators falling over themselves to be the most like little donnie, so if you're a voter who isn't in favour of Trump you're probably not in favour of those guys either.
       • Andre 3.1.1.1

         26 February 2020 at 5:45 pm

         … it would take a very weird set of factors to generate voter decision making like you suggest …

         Well, yeah. But we're already living 'seriously weird' and I don't think we're close to peak weird yet.
4. Sabine 4

   26 February 2020 at 10:09 am

   It is the Democratic Party, not the Democrat Party.

   so it would be a Democratic Senate Majority, as it is a Republican Senate Majority.
5. Phil 5

   26 February 2020 at 10:16 am

   Re: Georgia

   Georgia has a weird 'jungle primary' senate vote where every declared candidate goes on the ballot on November 3rd and, if no-one wins an absolute majority of votes, the top two candidates go into a run-off on January 5th. How that is going to shake out when they're voting for two seats – the regularly cycled seat held by Perdue (R), and an open special-election for the other – is literally anyone's guess.

   Stacey Abrams is not running for either seat.
6. Andre 6

   26 February 2020 at 10:28 am

   North Carolina is also a good pick-up prospect for the Dems. Thom Tillis is a first-termer, not very popular, and has tied himself tight to Deranged Dotard. NC often elects Dems in statewide elections, it only appears more Repug than it actually is because of effective gerrymandering.

   The importance of winning the Senate as well cannot be overstated. Given the lack of blowback for ignoring constitutional obligations and smashing norms, you can bet that McTurtle, if he retains the Majority Leadership, will delight in further trashing any concept of good governance by refusing to fulfill even the simplest of his obligations, such as confirming judges.
7. Phil 7

   26 February 2020 at 10:29 am

   Some others that could get interesting:

   Kansas – Long-term incumbent senator Pat Roberts (R) is retiring. The state has been hit hard by Trump's tariff war. A recent poll of the two most likely candidates shows them tied at 43%.

   Kentucky – Mitch McConnell is probably the most hated man in America right now and has seven primary challengers against him. There's also 10 Democrats in their primary race. Both of these are good signs for the race being worth keeping an eye on. There's only one poll of McConnell against his most likely democrat challenger Amy McGrath and it's from July, but she's right on his tail. Also, McGrath's a total badass a-la Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2.

   North Carolina – Incumbent Thom Tills (R) marginally trails his likely challenger Cal Cunningham (D) in recent polling.
   • Andre 7.1

     26 February 2020 at 12:45 pm

     Kentuckians may indeed hate McTurtle, with good reason. But they sure do love all the pork he delivers for them. So he's likely to set a record for the biggest margin ever between his approval rating and winning popular vote percentage come November.

     https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/475831-mcconnell-flexes-reelection-muscle-with-1b-gift-for-kentucky
     • Macro 7.1.1

       26 February 2020 at 1:50 pm

       Meanwhile…

       McConnell, Looking to Energize Social Conservatives, Forces Votes on Abortion

       After months of legislative inactivity, Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, has scheduled votes on two abortion-related bills. Democrats argue they are attacks on women’s reproductive rights.

       https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/us/politics/abortion-bill-votes.html
   • Macro 7.2

     26 February 2020 at 2:00 pm

     Yeah the Kentucky situation is very interesting. I thought that this was a shoe in for Moscow Mitch – and normally it would be – but then I read a report recently about a group of miners who had tried to get an meeting with him about on-going health concerns. They had travelled all day to see him and had let him know in advance of their desire to talk with him and he wouldn't give them the time of day. They were not impressed. Yes he and his wife are pork barrelling the state as hard as they can – but like all these things the main benefits go to the well to do and the poor are left behind to pick up what scraps they can.

     Here is a recent summary of the race from the Hill;

     Kentucky can be a tough state for Democrats to win elections in. Amy McGrath first ran for congress in the state back in 2018, losing to incumbent Andy Barr. She performed very well, losing by only 10,000 votes to Barr who had won by over 22% points in 2016.

     McGrath, who served in the Marine Corps as a fighter pilot, will now challenge Mitch McConnell for his senate seat in 2020. While McConnell has held the seat since 1985, new polling shows that he will be in for a significant battle this time around.

     The first poll that showed a close race was from the AARP. This survey showed McConnell only leading his opponent by a margin of 1%.

     Now two more recent polls are backing up the findings from that July survey. A study conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang had the incumbent holding a 43-40 lead over the challenger.

     Another survey, this one taken by Change Research, had the duo in a dead heat for the senate seat.

     Complicating things for McConnell is the presence of Libertarian candidate Charles Barron. Right-leaning Kentuckians could opt to vote for Barron rather than the incumbent.

     Another issue for McConnell is his unpopularity with Americans. Susan Collins recently passed the Kentucky lawmaker as America’s most unpopular senator, but McConnell still only holds a 37% approval rating.

     https://hillreporter.com/new-kentucky-polls-show-amy-mcgrath-hot-on-mcconnells-heels-59084
8. AB 8

   26 February 2020 at 1:07 pm

   It may not only be Republicans who want to stop the Sanders programme. It's possible he would also have to primary conservative Democrats and replace them with his supporters as candidates in the 2022 mid-terms.
   • Andre 8.1

     26 February 2020 at 1:13 pm

     Given that conservative Democrats are almost always positioned that way because that's what's needed to win their districts, and mid-terms almost always swing against the sitting president's party, that plan would just about guarantee Sanders would be a hamstrung lame duck for the last two years of his term.
     • AB 8.1.1

       26 February 2020 at 2:51 pm

       "conservative Democrats are almost always positioned that way because that's what's needed to win their districts"

       If this is correct, then what you say is true. I think the argument from the Sanders camp might be that positioning themselves that way is why Democrats actually lose so often, or only hang on marginally. I do hope we get to find out who's right.
       • Andre 8.1.1.1

         26 February 2020 at 3:20 pm

         What would you think of AOC's chances of winning the senate seats held by Joe Manchin (West Virginia), Jon Tester (Montana) or Doug Jones (Alabama), to mention the three most conservative Dem senators that immediately come to mind? Or say Conor Lamb's House seat in Pennsylvania?

         (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is an interesting case. Conservative voting record, which ties in with Arizona just starting to shade from solid red into purple. But then since she is openly bi in her personal life, she may feel the need to avoid getting offside on hot-button social issues. If Mark Kelly wins, gonna be interesting to watch how he votes)

         While there's certainly a few House seats filled by crusty old Dem geezers that are ripe for a young vibrant challenger to come in and displace the old timeserver that's been there forever, the operative word is 'few'. At a guess, a dozen max.
       • Phil 8.1.1.2

         26 February 2020 at 5:09 pm

         I think the argument from the Sanders camp might be that positioning themselves that way [conservatively] is why Democrats actually lose so often,

         The fundamental structure of the senate (2x Senators per state, regardless of size) is the biggest reason why Democrats struggle to win a majority in it. There are just too many small, mostly rural, states that are reliably Republican.

         On top of that, the Democrat primary electorate in those rural states is more moderate/conservative than, say, West Hollywood or The Bronx… so it's unlikely that a more liberal or Sanders-like candidate would even get through the primary to begin with.
9. DS 9

   27 February 2020 at 3:50 pm

   The Democrats will lose Alabama, of course.

   So four pick-ups needed. Colorado, Maine, and Arizona are the best bet. Plus one more out of North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana. Texas is too expensive to campaign in, and Georgia hasn't quite hit the demographic flip-point (it will soonish though). The rest are a pipe-dream.
   • Phil 9.1

     27 February 2020 at 5:39 pm

     Texas is too expensive to campaign in

     Yeah, but that's true for both the Dem and Rep candidate.

     Julian & Joaquin Castro and Beto O'Rouke have all declined to run, so there doesn't appear to be an obvious front-runner yet for the Dems.

     I tend to think that if the Dem's are competitive in this senate race, then they're probably also going to be competitive in a lot of other senate races that are easier pick-ups, so at least in the short term Texas will be a 'nice to have' rather than a 'need to have' senate seat.
10. Josh 10

    29 February 2020 at 6:10 pm

    Trump will thrash the pants off Sanders.

    Trump is the man.

    Sanders is an old goat without a coherent thought or original ideal

    Trump is a shoo in this year, and that is a damn good thing.

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