A Democrat Senate Majority

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, February 26th, 2020 - 21 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, elections, International, uncategorized, us politics - Tags:

So many left-leaning people around the world are looking to the United States election in November this year. We need to pay attention to the thing that enables the Presidential winner to get things done: a Senate majority.

The recent impeachment trial showed that without a Senate Democratic majority, the Congress majority meant nothing and the trial was just dead in its tracks. The Constitution was enacted in form but its substance got hollowed out badly.

Republicans hold 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to beat them. They won’t win everything back they got last time, so they need to win more than three. They also need a buffer of one or two, as Democratic Senators are not as whippable as the Republicans, on the last 20 years of record.

A Presidential candidate can promise all they like, but unless they have a majority in the Senate, any substantial policy or appointment moves are nigh impossible. It’s nowhere near enough to have a strong Democrat in the White House.

So there are some key Senate races that the Democrats need to win if they are to achieve that Senate majority and enable that critical part of the policy formation lever to work for the good of the United States.

In order of likelihood, the Democrats have a shot at a few:

1. COLORADO
Cory Gardner is the incumbent Republican Senator, winning by just 40,000 votes in 2016. This is the Democrats’ best shot at a seat shift. Their candidate will be either John Hickenlooper or the former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and the winner of that will probably win Colorado for the Democrats.

2. ARIZONA
Kyrsten Sinema won the Arizona senate race in 2018 – the first senate seat win for them since 1976. While her white vote was pretty good, it was her 70% share of the Latino vote that got her over the top by just 56,000 votes. More than 6000,000 eligible Latino’s didn’t vote in 2018, so there may well be upside to her majority. Also, Mark Kelly, husband of former representative Gabby Giffords, is an excellent contender. Arizona is strong for the Dems in the Senate.

3. GEORGIA
There’s two Senate seats in play here. I really have no idea who will get the candidacy for the Democrats, but Stacey Abrams fought and generated a sweet electoral infrastructure. Regardless of who gets the nod, Georgia should be all hands on deck for progressives. And let’s put it out there: wouldn’t Abrams make an awesome Vice Presidential nomination?

4. MAINE
Sara Gideon versus the odious paper tiger Susan Collins. I like this already. Collins’ favourability numbers are underwater. Maine voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections. Sara is the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Go do it Sara.

5. TEXAS
OK this is harder. Republican John Cornyn is no slug. Cristina Ramirez is the one with the potential clearest and most logical path to winning. She comes from an organizing background, and with deep Latino ties has the potential to capitalize on the state with the greatest progressive electoral potential of any state in the country. Groups like the Texas Organising Project have tilted the difference in mayoral races in Houston and San Antonio. Of course it would be a massive Republican shock.

Taking these five would be amazing, and give a tiny margin.

But then…

6. IOWA
I know, it’s already proven bonkers and organizationally incoherent during the primaries. Obama won it in 2008, and then it blew out to Trump in 2016. Maybe it’s too annoying to think about, but Iowans know they need change from what they have. Heck there’s even a shot that a progressive like Theresa Greenfield could get the nomination.

After that, you start going
mumblemumbleMississippiKeepHopeAlivemumblemumble. Yeah well.

The Democrats are going to need to win at least 5 to be safe, as they’ll lose a couple as they always do.

For us anxious progressives who see how important the United States is to democracy itself in this current world, a good President isn’t enough. The system needs a Senate that enables the President deliver the goods for all the good citizens who have been screwed under Trump.

Watch these Senate races just as hard as the Presidential one.

21 comments on “A Democrat Senate Majority ”

  1. Dot 1

    Good information there Advantage, thank you

  2. Bill 2

    A movement is like a rising tide that raises all boats, no? How many and how high will be seen soon enough.

  3. Phil 3

    They won’t win everything back they got last time

    Doug Jones (D) was lucky to come up against the completely vile Roy Moore in Alabama, in the 2017 special election after Jeff Sessions became Trump's AG. In 2020 Jones is likely to be defending against… Jeff Sessions. Sessions is a completely different kind of vile to Moore, but is broadly liked by Alabaman's and should take that seat back into Republican hands.

    Other than that, I don't see much on the map where I'd be worried of another Republican gain.

    • Andre 3.1

      I can envisage a scenario where Bernie becomes the nominee, then the Spraytan Stalin becomes ever more deranged and Bernie also doubles down on stuff that plays well to his base but is unappealing to the broader electorate, then places like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico could hold their noses and vote for Bernie but then vote Repug for House and Senate. Specifically to rid themselves of the Mandarin Manutang, but also to put a handbrake on Bernie so he can't in turn do outrageous stuff.

      That applies even more strongly to the senate seats that are currently Repug but are pickup opportunities for the Dems.

      • Phil 3.1.1

        Bernie becomes the nominee… then places like Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico could hold their noses and vote for Bernie but then vote Repug for House and Senate.

        I see where you're coming from, but I tend to discount the probability of that happening. The trend in the US is strongly *toward* tribalism and down-the-line voting, not away from it. I think it would take a very weird set of factors to generate voter decision making like you suggest.

        Plus, there's now four years of documented evidence of Republican representatives and senators falling over themselves to be the most like little donnie, so if you're a voter who isn't in favour of Trump you're probably not in favour of those guys either.

        • Andre 3.1.1.1

          … it would take a very weird set of factors to generate voter decision making like you suggest …

          Well, yeah. But we're already living 'seriously weird' and I don't think we're close to peak weird yet.

  4. Sabine 4

    It is the Democratic Party, not the Democrat Party.

    so it would be a Democratic Senate Majority, as it is a Republican Senate Majority.

  5. Phil 5

    Re: Georgia

    Georgia has a weird 'jungle primary' senate vote where every declared candidate goes on the ballot on November 3rd and, if no-one wins an absolute majority of votes, the top two candidates go into a run-off on January 5th. How that is going to shake out when they're voting for two seats – the regularly cycled seat held by Perdue (R), and an open special-election for the other – is literally anyone's guess.

    Stacey Abrams is not running for either seat.

  6. Andre 6

    North Carolina is also a good pick-up prospect for the Dems. Thom Tillis is a first-termer, not very popular, and has tied himself tight to Deranged Dotard. NC often elects Dems in statewide elections, it only appears more Repug than it actually is because of effective gerrymandering.

    The importance of winning the Senate as well cannot be overstated. Given the lack of blowback for ignoring constitutional obligations and smashing norms, you can bet that McTurtle, if he retains the Majority Leadership, will delight in further trashing any concept of good governance by refusing to fulfill even the simplest of his obligations, such as confirming judges.

  7. Phil 7

    Some others that could get interesting:

    Kansas – Long-term incumbent senator Pat Roberts (R) is retiring. The state has been hit hard by Trump's tariff war. A recent poll of the two most likely candidates shows them tied at 43%.

    Kentucky – Mitch McConnell is probably the most hated man in America right now and has seven primary challengers against him. There's also 10 Democrats in their primary race. Both of these are good signs for the race being worth keeping an eye on. There's only one poll of McConnell against his most likely democrat challenger Amy McGrath and it's from July, but she's right on his tail. Also, McGrath's a total badass a-la Linda Hamilton in Terminator 2.

    North Carolina – Incumbent Thom Tills (R) marginally trails his likely challenger Cal Cunningham (D) in recent polling.

    • Andre 7.1

      Kentuckians may indeed hate McTurtle, with good reason. But they sure do love all the pork he delivers for them. So he's likely to set a record for the biggest margin ever between his approval rating and winning popular vote percentage come November.

      https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/475831-mcconnell-flexes-reelection-muscle-with-1b-gift-for-kentucky

    • Macro 7.2

      Yeah the Kentucky situation is very interesting. I thought that this was a shoe in for Moscow Mitch – and normally it would be – but then I read a report recently about a group of miners who had tried to get an meeting with him about on-going health concerns. They had travelled all day to see him and had let him know in advance of their desire to talk with him and he wouldn't give them the time of day. They were not impressed. Yes he and his wife are pork barrelling the state as hard as they can – but like all these things the main benefits go to the well to do and the poor are left behind to pick up what scraps they can.

      Here is a recent summary of the race from the Hill;

      Kentucky can be a tough state for Democrats to win elections in. Amy McGrath first ran for congress in the state back in 2018, losing to incumbent Andy Barr. She performed very well, losing by only 10,000 votes to Barr who had won by over 22% points in 2016.

      McGrath, who served in the Marine Corps as a fighter pilot, will now challenge Mitch McConnell for his senate seat in 2020. While McConnell has held the seat since 1985, new polling shows that he will be in for a significant battle this time around.

      The first poll that showed a close race was from the AARP. This survey showed McConnell only leading his opponent by a margin of 1%.

      Now two more recent polls are backing up the findings from that July survey. A study conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang had the incumbent holding a 43-40 lead over the challenger.

      Another survey, this one taken by Change Research, had the duo in a dead heat for the senate seat.

      Complicating things for McConnell is the presence of Libertarian candidate Charles Barron. Right-leaning Kentuckians could opt to vote for Barron rather than the incumbent.

      Another issue for McConnell is his unpopularity with Americans. Susan Collins recently passed the Kentucky lawmaker as America’s most unpopular senator, but McConnell still only holds a 37% approval rating.

      https://hillreporter.com/new-kentucky-polls-show-amy-mcgrath-hot-on-mcconnells-heels-59084

  8. AB 8

    It may not only be Republicans who want to stop the Sanders programme. It's possible he would also have to primary conservative Democrats and replace them with his supporters as candidates in the 2022 mid-terms.

    • Andre 8.1

      Given that conservative Democrats are almost always positioned that way because that's what's needed to win their districts, and mid-terms almost always swing against the sitting president's party, that plan would just about guarantee Sanders would be a hamstrung lame duck for the last two years of his term.

      • AB 8.1.1

        "conservative Democrats are almost always positioned that way because that's what's needed to win their districts"

        If this is correct, then what you say is true. I think the argument from the Sanders camp might be that positioning themselves that way is why Democrats actually lose so often, or only hang on marginally. I do hope we get to find out who's right.

        • Andre 8.1.1.1

          What would you think of AOC's chances of winning the senate seats held by Joe Manchin (West Virginia), Jon Tester (Montana) or Doug Jones (Alabama), to mention the three most conservative Dem senators that immediately come to mind? Or say Conor Lamb's House seat in Pennsylvania?

          (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is an interesting case. Conservative voting record, which ties in with Arizona just starting to shade from solid red into purple. But then since she is openly bi in her personal life, she may feel the need to avoid getting offside on hot-button social issues. If Mark Kelly wins, gonna be interesting to watch how he votes)

          While there's certainly a few House seats filled by crusty old Dem geezers that are ripe for a young vibrant challenger to come in and displace the old timeserver that's been there forever, the operative word is 'few'. At a guess, a dozen max.

        • Phil 8.1.1.2

          I think the argument from the Sanders camp might be that positioning themselves that way [conservatively] is why Democrats actually lose so often,

          The fundamental structure of the senate (2x Senators per state, regardless of size) is the biggest reason why Democrats struggle to win a majority in it. There are just too many small, mostly rural, states that are reliably Republican.

          On top of that, the Democrat primary electorate in those rural states is more moderate/conservative than, say, West Hollywood or The Bronx… so it's unlikely that a more liberal or Sanders-like candidate would even get through the primary to begin with.

  9. DS 9

    The Democrats will lose Alabama, of course.

    So four pick-ups needed. Colorado, Maine, and Arizona are the best bet. Plus one more out of North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana. Texas is too expensive to campaign in, and Georgia hasn't quite hit the demographic flip-point (it will soonish though). The rest are a pipe-dream.

    • Phil 9.1

      Texas is too expensive to campaign in

      Yeah, but that's true for both the Dem and Rep candidate.

      Julian & Joaquin Castro and Beto O'Rouke have all declined to run, so there doesn't appear to be an obvious front-runner yet for the Dems.

      I tend to think that if the Dem's are competitive in this senate race, then they're probably also going to be competitive in a lot of other senate races that are easier pick-ups, so at least in the short term Texas will be a 'nice to have' rather than a 'need to have' senate seat.

  10. Josh 10

    Trump will thrash the pants off Sanders.

    Trump is the man.

    Sanders is an old goat without a coherent thought or original ideal

    Trump is a shoo in this year, and that is a damn good thing.

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    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
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    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
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    4 days ago
  • That Word.
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    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
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  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
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  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
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    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
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    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
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    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
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  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
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  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
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  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
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    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
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    5 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
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  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
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    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Echoes of 1968 in 2024?  Pocock on the repetitive problems of the New Left
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
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    6 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
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    22 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
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    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
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    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
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    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
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    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
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    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
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    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
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    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
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  • Government delivering on tax commitments
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    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
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  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
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  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
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    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
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    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
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  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
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    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
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    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
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  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
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    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
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  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
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    1 week ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
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    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
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  • Trustee tax change welcomed
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  • Minister’s Ramadan message
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    1 week ago
  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
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    1 week ago
  • Progress continues apace on water storage
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    1 week ago
  • Government agrees to restore interest deductions
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    1 week ago
  • Minister to attend World Anti-Doping Agency Symposium
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    1 week ago
  • Pacific Language Weeks celebrate regional unity
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    1 week ago

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