A few random predictions for 2022
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11:30 am, January 1st, 2022 - 117 comments
Categories: australian politics, boris johnson, climate change, jacinda ardern, labour, national, uk politics, uncategorized -
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Happy new year everyone.
A few random predictions for this year …
- Auckland Council, New Zealand and the world will continue to dither about climate change. We are running out of time. The world is full of good intentions but the only thing that matters is actually reducing CO2 and Methane emissions. A prediction and a somber one, this year the world will not get close to meeting agreed greenhouse gas emission goals.
- Omicron COVID will hit New Zealand some time during the year. Our vaccination response will continue to be impressive and will mean that we are preserved the worst of its effects. ANd another prediction, the country will hit 90% booster coverage by August.
- Chris Bishop and National will continue to claim that we need to loosen MIQ while blaming Labour for every time an individual Public Servant makes a slight mistake.
- National will have a relatively stable year with no leadership challenges and leaking will reduce to levels that allow for the continuation of rosy media relationships and no more.
- Labour’a polling will increase as Kiwis realise that the response to COVID continues to be strong. National’s support will improve at the cost of ACT’s support. The Greens’ support will remain stable. New Zealand First will continue to threaten the margin of error.
- Jacinda Arden will marry Clarke Gayford. Current arrangements suggest that electoral considerations are not the primary concern. The right will go to town on the event however and attempt to reduce its effect.
- In Auckland Phil Goff will not seek re-election as Mayor and open up an intense process for selection of the progressive candidate for his successor. David Shearer’s name has been floated with a couple of recent media puff pieces about him. I suspect the polling will not be helpful. If this is not done correctly and the best candidate not selected the right could win the Mayoralty and this would be a disaster for the city.
- In Australia Scomo will lose the election this year and Anthony Albanese and Labor will succeed. Scomo’s reign will hapefully be over. But Labor will not have a comprehensive plan to address climate change and mining magnates will continue to exercise far too much power.
- In England Boris Johnson will continue to stumble from self inflicted wound to self inflicted wound. Labour’s recent rise in the opinion polls will hold steady, not out of a sense of excitement but because too many Britons realise what a total cluster Boris is.
Feel free to contribute predictions in the comments. A chocolate fish will be awarded to the most outlandish prediction that proves to be correct.
117 comments on “A few random predictions for 2022 ”
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- Release: Labour welcomes inquiry into school lunches
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David Shearer should NOT stand for the Auckland Mayoralty. He is a nice chap – but he is a rubbish politician. He has an extensive skill base, but the sort of things you need for a successful Mayoralty are not in it. He was not even a particularly good Electorate MP – didn't do his research properly and did not consult widely enough.
Kamala will be replaced as VP by someone considered to be electable or with the "right" power base in preparation for the moving aside of Biden in much the same manner as happened to Spiro Agnew by Gerald Ford before ditching Nixon
I predict that I will probably get my hair cut this year whether I need to or not.
Democrats will be wiped out in the mid terms, by a record margin, setting up GOP control of Congress for decades and allowing the imposition of a free market white supremacist theocracy.
Chris Luxon will make an Orewa style speech, and his party will surge in the polls as a result.
An 'antivax' party will be formed to contest the 2023 election, with the crazies sidelined.
Labour will quietly drop KiwiBuild, and the fair pay agreements.
Right wing candidates will sweep the local elections, including Auckland Council. Farmers and farmer backed candidates will gain control of the regional councils, who will make money and profit the order of the day.
We will have our hottest winter on record, with temperatures of 20 degrees or more lasting well into June or July. Cicadas will still be heard in parts of the country as late as May.
And of course, all my predictions will be wrong as always
Late Jan government announces $12b partial tunneled light rail for Auckland.
Late Feb Omicron breakout hits Auckland: red light and hard border 4 weeks
I think by mid January the Omicron strain will already be established in NZ.
March 6 people including 1cop shot dead by gangs.
Covid Royal Commission announced
Chris Luxon will poll well for the first few months in 2022 but then get caught out by the media making one policy promise to one audience and the opposite policy promise to another. He will then attempt to explain how they are in fact the same policy & there is no contradiction, and make the problem worse.
After this, most voters will realise that he has no political principles & is not worth listening to. National voters will hope he continues to follow Sir John's every word of advice and he & National will still poll reasonably well because of this – but still some way behind Labour.
There will be some major leak by a disgruntled member of the National caucus that will cause Luxon embarrassment & require a National MP to be disciplined by the loss of a spokesperson role.
April Robertson and ACC Chair announce worker insurance. Key employers delighted.
Unemployment hits 3% flat but the poor are queuing around blocks.
May Highest spending budget in 50 years.
Labour back to 45%.
PM pregnant again.
#3 above, a certainty, Micky. It's the only think the Natz know how to do.
Watch for an ice-free Arctic, probably not September this year, but who knows. If it occurs, all hell will break loose with the climate.
June 6 people shot dead by gangs including 1 Police.
Australia asks for permanent squadron in Darwin and we agree.
Pfizer launch their new drug-Trycoxagen in NZ.
Lesbian numbers….plummet.
My God. Blazer really does (occasionally) have a sense of humour.
C'magnifique mon ami.
Tip of the hat to you Sir
July National 41%, ACT
Rural economy boom.
August South Island super snowstorm, Omicron breakout in Queenstown, Police border at the Crown Range.
Massive Southland floods.
Water asset shift occurs with no operational issues.
More like covid turns up in wastewater testing at multiple tourist centres across the country next week.
Mask use and scanning rates approach 100% the next day, nationwide.
Very few cases result.
That homelessness will increase due to rent rises. That more people will live in rentals which are not up to standard.
The standard of rentals need to be seriously looked at when it comes to noise with shared walls which are substandard. If the Tenancy Act thinks it is ok for shower water to hit your lounge wall at 11.30 pm – 12 midnight and start again at 7 am this is depriving a person of sleep and reasonable quiet and enjoyment of the tenancy. The property manager said people can shower when they want. The landlord needs to move the shower and complaining is a waste of breath.
A heat pump cannot be installed due to shared walls with two other properties.
Landlords have too much power when it comes to inconsiderate tenants.
When the outside tap is fixed my hose is going to go on at 7 am and hit the metal fence every night I am kept up.
Sept anti-vaxxer unemployed groups roam Northland and South Waikato serving on cashies.
Highest cause of death for males under 50 is suicide.
October National launches tax policy: wipe Working for Families but 0% tax on first 45k. Wipes $180k tax. Property mortgage interest fully claimable.
National+Act = Labour+Greens.
Nov Chloe takes over from Davidson, Greens lift to 11% average.
Government signals all vehicles to be charged RUC with Reggo wiped, Ak petrol tax wiped, congestion charging announced in Ak and Welly and Chch for 2025.
December Ardern signals Retirement so Robertson can have a run. Mahuta Deputy.
National Labour still neck and neck.
Robertson prepares pre-Xmas bonus $500 cash to each family earning jointly under $200k.
Grant justifies his offer because, under his watch and due to his actions, the "living wage" has reached $106.25 / hour.
Jan 1 – our beloved Ad gets smashed by lunchtime
lol, I wasn't going to say anything. It was entertaining
Mr Fishfinger Party is established in NZ with a manifesto to make fish and houses affordable for…all.
I see at the motel near me occupients who would be homeless were it not for a motel unit with a bar fridge. The bar fridge is substandard, just as well there is a supermarket close by.
Housing needs to be affordable on all levels and not be intrusive. Unfortunately the health system will need a lot of resources to clear up the backlog. Until Omicron and further Covid mutations come and go the cost to business, the health system, education being disrupted, disability, anxiety and a probable rise in crime is unknown.
I am ..flummoxed..lost for words!-this is a bad start to…2022.
There is no more pre Covid way of living. I do not yet know what I really think about those who try to live in a previous pre pandemic world and are not adapting to being restricted on health grounds. Everything has got harder to do and has become less certain.
Do I take a trip?
Do I have a hospital procedure?
Do I buy a house?
Do I have a baby?
Do I close my business?
Most outlandish prediction?…..the USD will cease to be the worlds reserve currency
I agree with this one but not till 2025 up to 2031. my belief comes from reading the 4th
wave.
Its going to happen ….but happening in 2022 is 'outlandish'.
Having said that , confidence can dissapear rapidly so its not beyond the bounds of possibility….the main retardent is the lack of a viable alternative.
Red has an..epiphany ..and puts empathy..above..apathy.
I predict Ad has even more predictions.
Democratic Party will get wiped in the mid-terms. (Unless he dies) Trump will be back in time for '24.
The "vaccine pass" gets a crucial add on that will essentially lock NZ into the "social credit" pathway that the government's Covid response has opened up
The cold war could easily turn hot.
Either
War in the Donbass.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/31/russian-foreign-minister-warns-west-us-ukraine-border-crisis
or
War in the South China Sea
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/
or
War in the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-conducts-war-games-in-strait-of-hormuz/a-59745747
This could make 2022 a terrible year.
The most realistic predictions so far. Sorry to say.
While NZ politics are important to us personally, our real fate lies in decisions made far away.
Totally agree, Red, with this point.
The harder prediction is which area will be the trigger first. I think it will be the Donbass.
munitions stocks will soar.
My predictions:
Corrections will get a pay raise of more than the current offer of 3% over 2 years, there'll also be major agitation for going on strike (ok the agitation will be coming from me and I'll get voted down but still)
Democrats will get absolutely decimated in the mid terms, like record decimated.
NZ cricket will continue its winning ways
I'll probably get banned again at some point
I'll probably get banned again at some point
Book now and avoid the rush …
I'll be interested in seeing what sets it off, its always (and I mean always) something I don't expect
Stuck for ideas?
My guess is sometime around Arderns wedding, probably something to do with the guest list or similar
Let me know when it's time – will be happy to oblige
Any guidance on the appropriate? Well soaked bus ticket laid gently over wrist, or a jolly fine caning?
'or a jolly fine caning?'
That is always a good idea
Bastinado Pucky. Bastinado.
That'll learn ya.
A new ultraright party will form targeting corruption, but not in expectation of receiving their share like ACT and National troughers. They will target gross instances like the $50 million spent not planning a cycling bridge, and they will take legal action to recover a reasonable proportion of the public money that disappeared in that exercise.
The Taxpayers Union response will be uncharacteristic, some would say guilty, silence.
The Lord of The Rings TV series is going to absolutely suck giant donkey dick
The Winds of Winter will not be released this year (it won't actually ever be released but it certainly won't be this year)
I predict that within a few days time, two impossibly glamorous scientists will discover that a huge comet, nicknamed COVID-22, will collide with the Earth in exactly six months, 12 days, 3 hours and 10 minutes (approximately), potentially obliterating the Earth. The scientists will try and convince the world's governments and peoples to take this seriously but the ensuing period will just go to show that the human species is totally unsuitable to live on planet Earth. A totally mad zillionaire will convince the U.N. that masks, mRNA vaccines and social distancing won't be of any value, but he can intercept the comet on its way to mine its exceptionally valuable minerals to be used in electric vehicle batteries. Just "don't look up" he will say to deter detractors. The plan will inevitably not succeed and the comet will smash Earth to smithereens on schedule. The only upside is that this will end the pandemic.
Evidence to show collusion between pharmaceutical companies, media conglomerates, big tech corporations and governments will start to leak out
The majority of the population will not believe it
Not one mention of the changing climate, the extinction of species, the rapidly diminishing forests, the failing fish populations…sigh…
I predict that none of Robert's worries will ever be heard of again, but Robert will still be unhappy…sigh…
Sigh not, alwyn! None of those things are real, and you KNOW it!
.
Suffering from terminal colorectal cancer … just hoping to make it to 2023 … hoping the Kainga Ora scandal is revitalised through Jan, Feb & March … to the extent that we can force the eviction of my parents' psychopathic / sociopathic neighbour … I don't want to die with them still in this fucking intolerable situation … feel total solidarity with all the victims of these violent out-of-control anti-socials … and a profound anger at their paternalistic Woke protectors who will gaslight the innocent, law-abiding victims every step of the way … and, on a whole different dimension, hoping to be able to make some sort of intellectual contribution before the bucket is unceremoniously kicked … especially in decisively challenging some baseless orthodoxies (sitting on weak evidential foundations) of both New Zealand historiography & political thought … and want to travel the beautiful, beautiful South Island (uplifts the spirit every time) as extensively as possible while I still have my energy & strength.
But saddened that I’ll probably never get back to Blighty & Europe again … always wanted to travel Iceland & the Faroes & see more of Norway … wanted to see the west coast of Scotland & the Hebrides again … but pretty much resigned that I never will … bugger.
Damn dude I'm sorry to hear that. I always enjoyed your analysis of the polls.
Oh fuck. I don't trust myself to type anything useful at the moment.
Swordfish, I am truly sorry to hear this. So hard living with this diagnosis and at this point of time, so difficult to travel. I hope you have good people around you, giving you love and support.
And I hope your parents issue with the anti social tennants gets solved very soon. I am hoping the legal action is successful.
Take care. I am so sorry.
You are a fighter for your mum and dad, and a terrific contributor here.
May you rage against the dying of the light.
No real words to say Swordfish that dont seem trite.
I hope you can enjoy and experience as much as you want, while you can, and go well.
Those subhumans who live next door to your parents will live their usual short and brutish lives. I just hope for your peace and your parents peace that situation is resolved soon.
Kainga Ora need to build retirement style complexes so elderly tenants are not harassed by neighbours who cause unwanted disruption in homes at any time. The law needs to be tightened when it comes to neighbours who you want to run from and cannot because of having no where else to go.
The person in your parents neighbourhood is impacting your health, something which you can do without. Sorry to hear of your medical situation.
You need to see your MP and go to every political parties housing MP and have privacy on this matter.
That's not a bad idea
Kainga Ora need to build retirement style complexes so elderly tenants are not harassed by neighbours who cause unwanted disruption in homes at any time.
These complexes are well established here in QLD. They're typically rent controlled to $250pw for a single bed unit and age restricted to 55 and over.
The link I gave is just one random example of many. We've visited quite a few now and are generally quite impressed.
Makes a lot of sense so the elderly can have some peace and security.
Once upon a time Councils provided housing for the elderly at affordable rates. They weren't that flash, but were more than adequate. Somewhere along the line Councils decided housing the elderly wasn't their job and the housing got sold off to private providers. And that was the end of that.
I expect the property value of social housing in places like Queenstown was eye watering. National sold off the state houses there too.
Surprisingly QLDC still owns elderly housing in Arrowtown. Four units that were built in 70's, quite small but much appreciated by the inhabitants. They are an artifact of the old Arrowtown Borough and the cunning buggers sited them on a bit of reserve in Caenarvon St below the War Memorial. Any mention of rationalisation requires immediate ritual disembowelment on the Village Green
The council and housing just where to start.
Some proper bylaws when it comes to human noise. Subdivided homes with shared walls. Not funny when your bedroom is the size of an office and another tenant with a separate lease has their bed up next to your bedroom wall. Sleeping in the lounge is preferable, but has its own problems.
The council need to provide a service for tenants so they can have their home appraised for noise. Stuff like strong water flow hitting the plastic in the shower cubicle, heavy footsteps, squeaky bed legs and spring sounds from a mattress everytime the neighbour turns over. Wardrobe and bathroom sliding doors which bang through the bedroom. Whisper quiet extractor fans are a saviour as 1 – 2 hours a day of vibration /humming has now stopped.
Some people cannot wear earplugs as they hear a sound like a heart beat.
Over 55s one of Australia's better notions.
We have a popular Village out Rotorua East.
They used to do this – villages for the elderly worked well for years. However slowly but surely younger people (usually with mental health and / or addiction issues) were moved in. And then with current housing shortages it became open slather and no care has been taken with placement of tenants.
Very sorry to hear this news of your condition, swordfish. I can identify with your situation.
Hope your parents' situation with their anti-social is resolved for them and you early this year. It is a situation of a type that was starting to get coverage in the media in 2021 and hopefully this will continue in 2022 with the government and MSD deciding to toughen their policy & move such disruptive people out of communities they are making life hell for.
So sorry to hear that. Wishing you the strength and fortitude you need for all that Swordfish.
Do the SI sooner rather than later. It's a completely different place while there are no mass tourists around.
I woke up questioning the council by laws. If a person has an annoying barking dog 24/7 the council dog control unit will visit the owner of the dog.
Where I am staying this happened before Christmas. I am also looking after a small dog who cries when they know you are about to leave.
I really hope that in 2022 people can have more peace in their home and the process for having control in their home from human noise has a proper solution.
Bugger. Go well Swordfish.
Swordfish, we are shattered for you in many ways. You are a valued member here.
My prediction is the mass who believe Trump won the last election will not change their minds and will rabbit on and continue to show their absolute stupidity.
I predict that everything I do this year will be an utter success. Or more.
I wonder if he followed through by later experiencing a bout of concussion?
What have we learned here?
If you want to succeed, ply, ply & ply again!
I wood knot ply this at home…Robert…unless you are really….board. cringe
Well, Peter Dunne did!
(A little obscure, sure…)
I predict at the end of the year you will change your name by deed poll to-Macouldn't.
Assured if you have no big issues, enough income and good health.
Maoridom will regain ownership of NZ's rivers, and demand that the state recover full ownership of the electricity companies.
"We allow free use of the rivers for generating purposes to benefit the community, not to benefit private shareholders" they will say.
Bring it on!
Owning the fisheries didnt mean the catching of fish became a public entity.
Thats a mistaken belief that Maori interests will believe in a public benefit when if what you described happened ( a big if) its far more likely the iwi will just charge rent for the benefit of its members
I didn't say they would succeed; but in any case attempting to extract income their taonga, I believe, would be inconsistent with te tirity, which seems to be more about ensuring that colonization does not interfere with the Maori way of life.
Labour has a major cabinet reshuffle this year when the shite massively hits the fan that's still on HP. With limited talent to reshuffle, some very strange choices will be made. That will be fodder for our media who increasingly become toxic towards Labour.
“That will be fodder for our media who increasingly become toxic towards Labour.”
I think you will be proven correct there. Towards the end of 2021 they seem to have become somewhat bored with the Jacindamania that characterised much of their reporting on the 2017 coalition government, when Winston Peters & Shane Jones could be the focus of negative reporting.
Last year’s final few months, particularly 1ewes at 6 tv reporting, & even some Stuff writers, seemed to become increasingly critical of the Labour government.
Now I believe they are looking for clicks & viewers – & if they can’t find a government controversy to report on, they’ll likely create some.
And, at the risk of being accused of sexism, some female reporters may not be able to resist the green-eyed monster when it comes to reporting on the to-date hugely successful & popular Ardern.
I’ll be interested to see if they also look to attack Luxon & Seymour. Just for clicks.
Unless Shaw & Davidson royally stuff up (Davidson seems to have learned from the fiasco of reclaiming the C word) I think they’ll leave the Greens alone & probably give them neutral to supportive reporting. (Though Shaw has been getting a wee bit of media stick for not being Green enuf on Climate Change.)
''Last year’s final few months, particularly 1ewes at 6 tv reporting, & even some Stuff writers, seemed to become increasingly critical of the Labour government.''
When these organisation become more critical of the Left. you know you they have a problem.
''And, at the risk of being accused of sexism, some female reporters may not be able to resist the green-eyed monster when it comes to reporting on the to-date hugely successful & popular Ardern.''
Females, for all their nurturing instincts, can be the nastiest creatures towards each other. It's not sexism, it's fact.
''I’ll be interested to see if they also look to attack Luxon & Seymour. Just for clicks.''
Oh, geez, it's almost a given on current form that the Right will shoot themselves multiple times in the foot before the next election. They would be better just to STFU, and let Covid and the economy deal to the Left.
A new minister of police and minister of justice is required. Both current ministers were way to quiet when it came to calling out the horrific abuse which went on at Lake Alice and how Crown Law stymied the investigations.
"That will be fodder for our media who increasingly become toxic towards Labour."
I'm wondering how much more toxic they can get.
The Herald is actively trying to overthrow the Government and now Stuff, giving the lie to Sinead's claim to being unbiased and absolutely truthful, is doing the same
From Facebook:
"Aren't you terrified by what 2022 might bring? everything is so messed up…"
"I think it will bring flowers".
"Yes? WHY?"
"Because I'm planting flowers" (plants flowers).
We must become for focused…by blurring our vision (with poetry, music, art and dance 🙂
Dissolving mechanical, crystalline thinking requires the solvent that is creativity.
Imo.
Yep… sounds like Bambi's mum wrote that.
Bambi, to the surprise of many, was male.
Bambi's mum…wasn't…
Absolute genius. I learn something every day!
You can be as creative as you want within your sphere of activity. But until the great amorphous mass of non-thinking humanity follow your lead, it will be for naught, global wise. In the meantime you shouldn't cast your pearls before swine. The mass of humanity doesn't like pearls…or the people who cast them.
Sheeple follow a leader? An antiquated notion. Nowadays they're more like sheep so herding them just requires a bit of strategic barking now & then…
Point-of-language there, Dennis:
Sheep flock, not herd; flocks of sheep, not herds of sheep.
How then, could anyone herd sheep?
(also the reason why nobody can herd cats and why there is no traditional clothing worn by catherds).)
Footnote: here in Southland, sheep-farmers go out and look the sheep.
Apparently, that's what sheep farmers and shepherds (oops!) did in Scotland, back in the day 🙂
How then, could anyone herd sheep?
The answer seems to lie in the relation between role model & copying.
Looks like the young sheep-herders copied the old ones…
FYI😎
https://youtu.be/Pk7yqlTMvp8
Cowboys herding cats.
Cool, thanks, that was fun!
Loved the sneezing cat herder!
The "great amorphous mass…" won't follow a lead until you display full, open-hearted creativity, modelling what you hope-for in others.
Imo.
The pandemic doesn't end (sorry)
The Thwaites doomsday glacier (the size of the UK) breaks off the Arctic ice sheet, cementing in near future sea level rise of half a metre.
Chloe Swarbrick starts gaining in preferred PM polls
Chocolate fish prediction: the Greens go fuck it, and spend the last 18 months kind of in government going hard on climate change, in the community, media, and pushing Labour. Major last dash effort to shift the NZ public to taking climate change seriously at the polls. Spurred on by the Greens, a new NZ climate movement arises, with a grand amalgamation of the big NGOs, Iwi, and on the ground activists. Protests break out all over the country.
"Spurred on by the Greens, a new NZ climate movement arises, with a grand amalgamation of the big NGOs, Iwi, and on the ground activists.
ProtestsCelebrations break out all over the country."Onslow project gets the nod.
A third food retailer enters the market.
NZ sends vaccine to island groups.
A new Reserve is devised to assist fish stocks.
Banks have to work with customers to avoid fire sales after a housing market adjustment.
Omicron becomes the variant world wide heralding the end of the pandemic.
The new Health system is bedded in
Two members of Labour retire at the 2023 election.
NZ manufacturing increases.
Dental work for beneficiaries and people earning under $40 000 is free for 4 visits for repair or new work.
significant reduction in sheep numbers
unemployment to virtually nil
huge increase in drug rehab programmes virtually eliminates addicts
same with mental health, depression virtually non-existent
SIS & GCSB disestablished
sexism and racism becomes socially unacceptable
covid unrest dissipates
everyone has a bed to sleep in and feels safe