Auckland’s election result was not so bad

Written By: - Date published: 2:55 pm, December 14th, 2011 - 50 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour - Tags:

mickysavage at Waitakere News writes about a topic that none of us have had time for – numbers. The leadership changes have been clogging the posts.

The election result figures are finally in.  At 27.5% of the popular vote Labour’s result is the worst since the 1930s although not that much worse than 1996’s 28.2%.

National is up slightly by 2.4 percentage points but obviously at the cost of ACT who slumped 2.6 points.

Nationally Labour ‘s vote decreased by 6.5 percentage points.  But in Auckland (urban general electorates) the party performed relatively well and the vote decreased only by 2.6 points.  This was more than compensated for by the increase in the Green vote (3.6%) and the NZ First vote (2.3%).  National’s vote increased slightly (0.8%) but with the decimation of ACT the NACT vote actually went backwards.

There were some stunning results, particularly in South Auckland where Labour’s share of the vote increased by 10.2% in Mangere, 7.3% in Manukau East and 5.2% in Manurewa.  And in Phil Goff’s Mount Roskill it increased by 1%.  These were very good results in an election where the tide was going out.

The following table sets out the movement of Labour’s party vote in the various seats and nationally:

Nationwide -6.5%
Mangere 10.2%
Manukau East 7.4%
Manurewa 5.2%
Mt Roskill 1.0%
Botany -0.7%
Papakura -2.1%
Waitakere -2.6%
Te Atatu -2.6%
Maungakiekie -2.7%
New Lynn -3.3%
Tamaki -3.6%
Hunua -3.6%
Pakuranga -3.7%
Helensville -4.1%
East Coast Bays -4.4%
Epsom -4.5%
Northcote -4.7%
North Shore -5.2%
Mt Albert -5.5%
Rodney -7.2%
Auckland Central -9.4%

Auckland Central’s result may be a reflection of the tight candidate race that occurred there.  Voters may have given Jacinda Ardern their candidate vote at the expense of the party vote.

A comparison with other urban centers provides some interesting results.  In Wellington the Labour vote shed 7.3 percentage points, in Christchurch the figure was 10.2% and in Dunedin a jaw dropping 10.3%.  Christchurch could be explained by the earthquakes and the displacement caused but Dunedin’s result will need further analysis.

Why was the Auckland figure better?  A number of reasons spring to mind.  These include the disaster that is Super city, Labour’s proposal to partially fund the inner city loop, and an energetic effort by activists over the past three years.  Certainly the seats with the greatest activity enjoyed the best results.  South Auckland clearly returned to the fold.  At the last election its turnout was muted by the anti smacking legislation and a series of high profile murders in the area that caused law and order to be a major issue.  The “Street Captain” scheme put in place by the Service and Food Workers Union also would have helped.

No doubt more detailed analysis of the results will occur and conclusions will be drawn.  But the Auckland result is a glimmer of light for Labour and raises some possible courses of action for Labour to consider in its quest to regain the Government benches.

50 comments on “Auckland’s election result was not so bad ”

  1. gingercrush 1

    Mt. Albert and Auckland Central do have to be a worry though.

    Auckland Central looks like Labour’s vote went to be both the Greens and National. Mt. Albert it simply looks like more went to the Greens rather than to Labour. Otherwise, it just appears Labour lost more votes in already strong National-held electorates.

    National didn’t really increase the vote meanwhile NZ First and the Greens vote grew considerably (much in the same way United Future and NZ First grew in 2002). That is what I find most frustrating. Because in 2002 Labour and the Greens were effectively on 48% and Progressives were 1.7%. The danger 2011 shows for National and the right is that at what should have been our greatest hour we’re still just over 50%. I suspect most of Dunedin’s vote simply went to the Greens. Dunedin South one needs to remember now covers a number of country areas.

    Though actually if you look at every MMP election the left or right have only been able to get 50% and a bit.

    • By my calculations the National vote in Christchurch went up 7.43% and in Dunedin by 4.3%.  The Green vote went up 4.7% and 7.1% respectively.

      In Auckland Central the Green vote went up by 7.3% and in Mt Albert by 6.15%.  The National vote went up by 2.1% and 1% in those seats.

      • mik e 1.1.1

        in dunedin the local national machine has been very high profile with a very prominent building on the main street + Cars that have very attractive advertising.Woodhouse has got around the electorate and kept the National party in the news.
        Labour and the left need to lift their game down here.

    • lprent 1.2

      Auckland Central has a rapidly moving population and quite young population. Most of the population growth is in apartments sold to younger voters who happily split their votes. It is a problem for Labour on the party vote.

      Most of Labour’s emphasis in that electorate has wound up on the electorate vote – as you can see. Labour’s electorate vote held up with help from Green voters, but their party vote went to the Greens. Good for the left if you want an overhang. Not so good if it doesn’t come off. 

      Turn out was down about thousand.

      Mt Albert was down by about two thousand. The electorate had gone from having a PM to just an MP, so I was expecting to see a drop – and you can see it in the electorate vote. I saw one after Helen became leader of the opposition – leader effect. That is also probably mostly why Mt Roskill went up. It does carry through to the party vote as well. 

      The challenge in Mt Albert has always been to keep National party vote from growing too much. But this time as you say left vote leaked to the greens. They ran a party vote only campaign and that actually works quite well for them because they preach the vote splitting mantra..

      The greens  are getting a lot smarter in their campaigning. In some ways that is good (because they have been pretty dumb and focused on stunts in the past). Does make it harder campaigning against both them and National.

      I don’t know much about the Mt Albert campaign this time. I pretty much limited myself to e-day target selection because I didn’t want campaigning pressures. 

      • nadis 1.2.1

        What is “e-day target selection”?

        • lprent 1.2.1.1

          Figuring out who you want to remind that it is election day and that they should get out and vote.

          There are about a million Kiwi’s who were enrolled and who didn’t vote in the 2011 election. Believe or not people actually forget to vote. Having someone knocking on their door or phoning them up helps a lot to get them to the polling booth.

          Labour has done this for a long time and it works. Labour vote is far more affected by the number of people turning out to vote than Nationals.

          Obviously we don’t like reminding National voters to vote, so we’re selective about who we’re going expend effort on.

          There are some pretty specific rules about what can and cannot be said, what can be worn, and what can be done.

          • nadis 1.2.1.1.1

            thks.

            Has anyone tried to do an analysis of how many people are registered to vote but live in Australia or further offshore?

            For instance I remained registered in a Wellington electorate for 15 years while living overseas – probably voted in just one or two elections in that period.

            • lprent 1.2.1.1.1.1

              The electronic roll has a mailing address that many people actually use. I’ve tagged it in my targeting code to indicate people that aren’t likely to actually be present in the electorate (and that should be handled differently). I gather that the electoral commission does the same.

              There are people who don’t do that and their mail goes to parents or flatmates or friends or the like. That is usually a bad idea because people move and you can get dropped from the roll.

              The way that electoral commission drops people from the roll is using the mail system. They periodically send e-mail to every voter and if the mail bounces (gone no address) then they will eventually remove people from the roll. It is easy enough to update your mailing address online at http://www.elections.org.nz

              There are numbers of overseas in most areas, especially around student towns. They aren’t that high. Your 15 years is one of the longest I know off because there is a requirement that you have to be back for at least a short period every few years to be able to vote and most people who are offshore for a long time tend to fail that requirement at least some time (don’t know the details).

              I don’t know if the electoral commission looks at the border control databases to see if people do come back into the country within the required timeframes. They probably should if they don’t.

  2. insider 2

    “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

    That is such a sad headline, and I don’t mean in an unhappy way.

    • Silver lining insider, silver lining …

      • Tigger 2.1.1

        If we are to win we need to be realistic.  I keep hearing that Labour were ‘decimated’. We weren’t.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.1

          Key was always going to win, he was way ahead all the time, well that’s the way I heard it.

          Facts differ from the MSM take though.

          Key lost because now he is one seat away from oblivion, his hold on power is down, and all it takes is a leadership threat.

          Key is out of touch with the needs of the NZ economy, those that voted National did so more out of desperation to keep their lifestyles.

          However peak oil is a threat to our primary exports, a game changer.

          Our tax system is weak and allows for more debt capacity that is safe in the world economy.

          Free trade means we cannot be a back water yet National voters want us to remain a back water less they have to give up their tax advantages against their foreign competitors (who pay pay CGT).

          So how has Key won? He gets to do what, sell assets that most people think is wrong even those who believe in asset sales (just not at the bottom of the market! when the world banks are printing money).

          Its ludicrous how pathetic Key is.

      • insider 2.1.2

        I know that was the intent, it just came across as completely demoralised – kind of like saying ‘well at least it didn’t rain’ after being hammered by an innings and 34 runs. You’d have been better with “Signs for the future for Labour in Auckland vote” or similar

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          Lefties are crap at spin, generally speaking. Thats a compliment. Sort of.

          See what I mean!!! 😛

  3. Jill 3

    Thank you for highlighting the successful campaigns in South Auckland which included tried and true methods of street corner meetings, sign waving, hoardings on every fence we could find (painting the town red), but also the new street captains project in which we mobilised union members to do small tasks such as leaflet deliveries in their own neighbourhoods, giving them small blocks they could do after work, and then on Election Day giving them packs with lists of all enrolled voters in their streets to go and encourage them to vote.
    The literally hundreds of volunteers came back brimming with amazing stories of the lengths they went to to give our people the opportunity to vote. Most of all they felt really good that they had done it as door knocking is quite a scarey prospect. It helps they were visiting their own neighbours.
    We also have great candidates. In Mangere we have a relatively new MP in Sua William Sio who has huge community support. He was of course deputy mayor of Manukau City, a former trade unionist and fighter for democracy.
    In Manurewa, Louisa Wall, former Silver Fern and Black Fern (won the Rugby World Cup twice!), is the first Maori MP in a general seat in South Auckland since Winston Peters won Hunua for the Nats in the 1980s, and she is the first Labour woman to win a general seat in South Auckland — ever. That may be because she is the only one to have been selected! First time up in the seat, she increased the majority George Hawkins had to 8600. She is young, with a sharp intellect, and tells it how it is. You should have seen her in the markets and in the shopping centres. She
    has a genuine love for our people — a sign of a true leader. Watch this space!

    • seeker 3.1

      Thanks for posting this comment Jill and telling South Auckland’s stirring story. You have lifted my heart after the last couple of weeks and thanks too to South Auckland for mounting such a strong, passionate campaign. Amazing.

      Have been admiring Suo William Suo for a while now. His commitment, wisdom and integrity shines through. Likewise Louisa Wall, who I think was a cracking Labour selection. Both show a genuine love for people- (oh that more in the National government did) which I think should be a real prerequisite for a leader.
      I think the South Auckland spirit is a beacon of light for Labour, sincere thanks.

  4. muzza 4

    Whats even worse about Central Auckland is that Nikki Kaye is the epitome of a party stooge. Many communications with her…bright girl, but quite simply under the spell.

    Could be a good time to see the rise of the truly neutral independents, because the political landscape it simply a mess with oxygen thieves who should be nowhere near the public decision making process…that applies to all parties…

    I will be hoping to get something better out of Jacinda Adern, if I have to deal with a party MP. Let’s see if she can extrapolate herself from the stink that is party stoogery

    • Anthony 4.1

      Kaye works pretty hard for her win, Seen Kaye more times than I can count around the area, seen Jacinda once or twice ever.

    • Cactus Kate 4.2

      Muzzy you have a very short memory.

      Much to the horror of her caucus colleagues, Nikki opposed mining. I think you need to revisit the definition of the word stooge and maybe apply it to her opponent.

      • McFlock 4.2.1

        Nikki opposed mining on Great Barrier Island. The NIMBY MP.

        That bit of the mining plan was always going to be the hardest sell, anyway: a hippie retirement community in Auckland’s back yard. Tui moment.
         
        It was the standard enviro-spiking tactic, just like the snail relocation – stack up a few areas, then drop the one with biggest opposition as part of a “compromise”. But the majority of the plan is still implemented (well – the entire thing was a bit much for them to chew. Hopefully the asset sales plan will be the same).

        • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2.1.1

          Apparently Nikki has a hideaway on GBI…….. Farrar goes there a lot as well… the island that is…..maybe there is a connection here…or maybe friends with benefits

      • muzza 4.2.2

        Curious those bloggers who alter a name to something it’s not – Tells much about the responder, that they lack basic manners…

        Anyway, yes Nikki Kaye went against Gt Barrier safe in knowing that it was never a serious mining option (at that time anyway), and because it comes under her electorate – WOW, tough stuff..And do you really think JK would have let Auckland Central go straight back to Labour, if there was mining on Barrier, cos thats exactly what would have happened…there are too many negatives for them to go anywhere near Gt Barrier…It was hollow rhetoric from NK, as part of the transparent political game lead by Kate Wilkinson backed by JK etc, while using the mining issue as a massive focus group session…

        • Akldnut 4.2.2.1

          Can almost guarentee that she did it with the full consent of her leader.
          She’s just a party stooge who apart from that one incident has done virtually nothing.

  5. Waldo 5

    I haven’t looked at the numbers, but wouldn’t some of the rise in Sth Auckland be due to the collapse of the Pacific party?

    • Gazza it probably would have helped but I would guess much if their vote went to the Conservative Party and helped in the increase of NZ First’s vote.

      Using the back of a local envelope and presuming PP’s votes went to the Conservative Party, then to NZ First and then returned to Labour this would have accounted for maybe 5 percentage points of the Mangere increase but only modestly in Manurewa and Manukau East.

    • vidiot 5.2

      Very good observation – looking at Mangere, 2700 votes in 2008 for PP – which is less than the increase in LAB party vote in 2011.

  6. vidiot 6

    Just as well Mickey’s a lawyer & not an accountant, his maths is off, way off.

    Take Mangere 2008 – Party Votes for LAB 15,446 vs 2011 Party Vote for LAB 17960 – difference is a 16.2% increase (2514 votes). If you look directly at the candidate votes – 12651 vs 18177 – again (5526) a 43% increase in voter support for the candidate. Also interesting to see voter turnout was up for that seat.

    Perhaps you need to get Marty back on the numbers ?

    • The change is the increase in the percentage of the total vote gained.  It is not affected by turnout.

      • mickysavage 6.1.1

        The formula used is
         
        change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)-(2008Labourvote/2008total)
         
        A change in turnout does not affect the change in the percentage.
         
        My maths is fine thanks.

        • vidiot 6.1.1.1

          No, your math is lacking.

          Using your exact formula on Mangere results – http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-22.html vs http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorate-22.html.

          Change = (17960/25525) – (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) – (0.609238)
          Change = 0.094386

          Now if you change your formula to:
          Change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)/(2008Labourvote/2008total)
          Change = (17960/25525) / (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) / (0.609238)
          Change = 115.4925%

          So how did you get 10.2% ?

          • mickysavage 6.1.1.1.1

            You are including informal party votes in your calculations.  I took them out and used the total valid votes figure instead.

            Calculations for Mangere are:

            2008 –  15446/25074=61.6%
            2011 –  17960/25007=71.8%

            Change is 10.2%

            All analyses that I see strip out the invalid votes.

            As Lynn says it is a bit of a crude measure in some respects but it gives a reasonable sense of what happened and allows some understanding of voting trends.

    • lprent 6.2

      As Micky says – why would you introduce a extra factor into a comparison. 

      If you’re after accuracy then I could also suggest several other ways that would fix the problems in your comparisons.

      Micky’s ones however are rough but effective measures to look at differences between electorates and between elections in a meaningful way.

       

  7. PJH 7

    Generally, Pacific, Maori, and ethnic minority voters are not inclined to vote for the Greens. So Labour has done well in those seats where those groups predominate: the South Auckland seats (Pacific, Maori), Roskill, Botany and Pakuranga (ethnic minorities). With Pakuranga the comparison is best made with other blue suburban seats where Labour dropped more than in Pakuranga this time, eg, North Shore, having had very similar levels of support in earlier elections.
    Labour tended to lose most to the Greens and National where the Pakeha middle class predominates; I suspect the Labour caucus had this in mind yesterday.
    This is probably the strongest reason for variations in the Labour party vote across the city, over and above the strictly local effects such as that in Auckland Central.

  8. DS 8

    Dunedin wasn’t actually too ugly relative to the rest of the wider South Island. The oddities of the Dunedin South party vote was a reflection of some horrible booths out at Mosgiel (contrary to populr belief, Dunedin South is no longer simply “South Dunedin”), and that Dunedin South’s middle-class tends to be Blue, rather than Green. Dunedin North is still less generically Red, but its middle-class (dominated by the University) tends to be Green, rather than Blue. 

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      And don’t forget that Dunedin North numbers were also hit by the retirement of a well known, long serving MP (Pete Hodgson).

      • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1

        Isnt this all academic- National made a stunning recovery from a even more hideous thrashing (20.9% in 2002) so the only way is up for Labour in 2014.
        and National aint going to get another RWC or Canterbury Earthquake for a dead cat bounce

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          Yep. Goff did far far better in 2011 than English did in 2002. I feel that Goff was in too much of a rush to step down (or perhaps everyone was in too much of a rush to move in).

      • lprent 8.1.2

        Always happens..

        • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.2.1

          English stayed for a year…. and is still around 10 years later and he supposedly had marketable skills…cough

  9. Armchair Critic 9

    Your post abounds with faint praise micky, and faint praise ain’t a good thing. Look for the positives, Labour can’t afford to be too negative.
    In terms of the political parties it was a good election for NZ First, and the Greens. OTOH it was a bad election for Labour, ACT and the Maori Party. In the middle I’m putting National, who improved their party vote, but not by quite enough.
    In terms of political blocs the election was a bad for the right and showed a shift away from them. Like the RWC the favoured team won, but the margin was unexpectedly small. The mainstream narrative around the result conflates “the left” with “the Labour Party” and allows the illusion to be created of a solid mandate for the policy direction of the government. In fact with only minor shifts in voting patterns the government would have looked completely different. However…
    A brief side point – who was in charge of Labour’s election campaign? I tried hard to not be too negative about it, but in hindsight it was not good enough. Next time Labour must pursue the party vote like their lives depend on it, the focus on the candidates, at the expense of the leader and the party, was wrong.
    Back to what I wanted to say – “the left”, as a bloc, are fractured at the moment. With 14 Green Party MPs and Winston Peters back in Parliament, with unfinished business, Labour risk not being seen as “the Opposition” for the next term unless they get their act together, and quickly. Not because National will win the next election, they won’t, (unless there is a snap election within the year), but because the votes National loses will go to NZ First, back to moron parties like ACT and UF, and most of all to the disillusioned non-voting camp.
    It would be good to see Labour leading the left to a victory at the next election, rather than letting National lose it through unpopular policy. Labour need to:
    Start the election campaign now, especially the fundraising. I think it will be an early election, which is why I refer to the “next election”, rather than the “2014 election”. A by-election in either Auckland Central or Christchurch Central in 18 months time would be a nightmare for National.
    Oppose the government, after all Labour are the opposition.
    Unleash all of their talent. To this end, David C has to be Finance Minister. Otherwise I won’t split my vote next time, it will be all Green instead.
    Unify behind the leader the caucus selected
    Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.
    Find the good things from the 2011 election and roll them out across the country.
    Campaign for the party vote – unashamedly.
    Finally – ignore John Pagani. And Chris Trotter.
    On a technical note, I’m not sure whether your analysis compares apples with apples (it may well do). I voted Labour party vote and Green electorate vote. In my eyes that makes me a Labour voter this election, in accordance with the MMP electoral environment. The idea that people’s voting preference is determine by their electorate vote is, IMO, a hangover from FPP. Can you confirm the basis for your figures?

    • Thanks AC. good comments.

      To respond …

      1. If you include NZF in the left block then it was a good result and surprisingly close.
      2. Mallard was Labour’s campaign manager. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that all the John Key billboards were a play for the party vote and not doing the same with Goff cost us dearly.
      3. All electorate candidates should be told to campaign for the party vote, no matter how marginal the seat. After all nothing else counts.
      4. I agree Labour is very vulnerable right now.
      5. Labour does need to start the campaign now through a couple of policy campaigns, eg no asset sales.
      6. Yes to David C being finance spokesperson, wholeheartedly.
      7. Agred we need unity.
      8. The provinces and country is where the next election will be won.
      9. I agree about Pagani. I am afraid he may be chief of staff though …
      10. The analysis is based on the change in the proportion of the party vote only.

      • Armchair Critic 9.1.1

        1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.
        2. It’s the party vote that counts, Labour knew that in 2002. There’s no excuse for forgetting or thinking otherwise.
        3. Yes, it’s teamwork. Winning the party vote gets you and your colleagues into parliament, whereas winning the electorate vote just gets you into parliament. Of all the parties it is Labour that should know and live the value of working collaboratively and collectively for the greater good. Not vociferously campaigning for the party vote goes against the spirit of the party.
        4. The vulnerability will come from indecision. Much as I dislike much of what Winston Peters says, I acknowledge that he says it in a convincing manner and in a way that people understand. Labour have had three years for introspection. Now to the barricades.
        5 – 8. tick
        9. Oh shit. John Pagani – another good reason to give the Greens two ticks.
        10. Ta.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.

          NZF had 2 policies which would have really counted in this election as a bridge to Labour. No asset sales. And $15 minimum wage.

          The rest was detail which could have been worked around for the most part, even though as you say, NZF are not “of the left”.

      • muzza 9.1.2

        Cunliffe for Finance, argh, NO.

        The bloke does not even understand how the national debt is un-repayable, because he does not understand that our RBNZ/OoDM are private. Until he can get his head around the fact that Treasury can issue/purchase bonds directly with itself ( including the amount interest the loan would require to service it in total, over the duration of the bonds life), which is then as a total amount seeped into the system via public works infrastructure projects etc – This way the total repayable amount of the loan is in existence, and hence can be paid back, unlike currently where the priciple is loaned (by private banks, through our private RBNZ/OoDM, to the Public Treasury (govt), and the interest repayable on top of the priciple….where is money coming from to pay off the loan plus the interest (does the money supply magically expand organically?) – I think he mumbled something about fire up the printing press, when we met with him – Finance spokeman, again = NO

        Of course John Key understands all this, which makes him much worse than those who are simply too ignorant/stupid or unable to get their head around this issue!

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.

      +1 Thanks for the insight. I hope the Wellington heads get this.

  10. In Vino Veritas 10

    Manukau, Manurewa and Manukau East. Surely no one should be surprised Labour increased in these electorates? These are electorates where many get to vote themselves an income, or at the very least, transfers from the government that are greater than the tax that they pay.

    • lprent 10.1

      Does that explanation of self-interest explains why the Labour vote dropped a lot between 2005 and 2008?

      No?

      Do you ever turn on your brain before you write these dumbarse statements? Or do you expect us to keep correcting your unthinking bigotry forever…

      I swear that I find many right wingers think with the glands until challenged. That is a bias from observation here. IVV seems to get his from the obsessive group-think of the right.

  11. In Vino Veritas 11

    Thanks lprent. Sorry, but I thought I’d just join the crowd and make a few dumbarse comments, there are plenty flying about. Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

    I have a question though. Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

    • lprent 11.1

      Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

      Oh I’d agree. But there is a lot less of the unthinking bigotry which is what attracts my bile.

      Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

      Simplistic and the wrong question. Because the answer is maybe. Voting behavior is pretty damn complex and there are a lot of factors that go into peoples decisions.

      Ummm a simple answer for the simplistic. In these electorates you probably have the highest population of active church goers in the entire country. Those often overlap with the group of people who benefit from the welfare systems (as you’re trying to dog whistle to). People, especially church goers, will often vote in accordance with reasons related to their perception of morals instead of their economic interests.

      Now if you asked ….are more likely to vote for the party…. then I’d say yes. But it is just a probability based on an attribute, one amongst many attributes.

      When I’m doing profiling with canvass information I’m typically doing it on a matrix with hundreds of factors in the mix from public and electoral information. It winds up with predictive probabilities for individuals.

      Like your prediction, it is also guesswork. Just better organised, based on far more data and orders of magnitude more accurate according to the people who do contacts based on it.

      But I wouldn’t make simple minded assertions like yours. Having such assurance of being right is the role of bigots who know bugger all.

      BTW: If you ask people who campaigned in the 3M’s in 2008, you’ll find that they said that the local crime rate and the ‘anti-smacking’ changes made a bigger difference to local voting than almost any other set of factors.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The New “Emperor’s New Clothes”.
    “‘BUT HE HASN’T GOT ANYTHING ON,’ a little boy said ….. ‘But he hasn’t got anything on!’ the whole town cried out at last.”On this optimistic note, Hans Christian Andersen brings his cautionary tale of “The Emperor’s New Clothes” to an end.Andersen’s children’s story was written nearly two centuries ago, ...
    21 mins ago
  • BRYCE EDWARDS: The vested interests shaping National Party policies
      Bryce Edwards writes – As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 hours ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: A conundrum for those pushing racist dogma
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – The heavily promoted narrative, which has ramped up over the last six years, is that Maori somehow have special vulnerabilities which arise from outside forces they cannot control; that contemporary society fails to meet their needs. They are not receptive to messages and ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 hours ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER:  The greater of two evils
    Not Labour: If you’re out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.   Chris Trotter writes – THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 hours ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Sept 30
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Labour presented a climate manifesto that aimed to claim the high ground on climate action vs National, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    8 hours ago
  • Litanies, articles of faith, and being a beneficiary
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    9 hours ago
  • Litanies, articles of faith, and being a beneficiary
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    9 hours ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong direction
    This week the International Energy Association released its Net Zero Roadmap, intended to guide us towards a liveable climate. The report demanded huge increases in renewable generation, no new gas or oil, and massive cuts to methane emissions. It was positive about our current path, but recommended that countries with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    23 hours ago
  • “Racism” becomes a buzz word on the campaign trail – but our media watchdogs stay muzzled when...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Oh, dear.  We have nothing to report from the Beehive. At least, we have nothing to report from the government’s official website. But the drones have not gone silent.  They are out on the election campaign trail, busy buzzing about this and that in the hope ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    23 hours ago
  • Play it, Elvis
    Election Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t have time for. You’re welcome, etc. Let us press on, etc. 1.  What did Christopher Luxon use to his advantage in ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • Pure class warfare
    National unveiled its fiscal policy today, announcing all the usual things which business cares about and I don't. But it did finally tell us how National plans to pay for its handouts to landlords: by effectively cutting benefits: The biggest saving announced on Friday was $2b cut from the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Ask Me Anything about the week to Sept 29
    Photo by Anna Ogiienko on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week for an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session for paying subscribers about the week that was for an hour, including:duelling fiscal plans from National and Labour;Labour cutting cycling spending while accusing National of being weak on climate;Research showing the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Weekly Roundup 29-September-2023
    Welcome to Friday and the last one for September. This week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Matt highlighted at the latest with the City Rail Link. On Tuesday, Matt covered the interesting items from Auckland Transport’s latest board meeting agendas. On Thursday, a guest post from Darren Davis ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 day ago
  • Protest at Parliament: The Reunion.
    Brian’s god spoke to him. He, for of course the Lord in Tamaki’s mind was a male god, with a mighty rod, and probably some black leathers. He, told Brian - “you must put a stop to all this love, hope, and kindness”. And it did please the Brian.He said ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago
  • Labour cuts $50m from cycleway spending
    Labour is cutting spending on cycling infrastructure while still trying to claim the higher ground on climate. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Labour Government released a climate manifesto this week to try to claim the high ground against National, despite having ignored the Climate Commission’s advice to toughen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • The Greater Of Two Evils.
    Not Labour: If you’re out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very rarely is an opposition party elected ...
    1 day ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2023
    Open access notables "Net zero is only a distraction— we just have to end fossil fuel emissions." The latter is true but the former isn't, or  not in the real world as it's likely to be in the immediate future. And "just" just doesn't enter into it; we don't have ...
    2 days ago
  • Chris Trotter: Losing the Left
    IN THE CURRENT MIX of electoral alternatives, there is no longer a credible left-wing party. Not when “a credible left-wing party” is defined as: a class-oriented, mass-based, democratically-structured political organisation; dedicated to promoting ideas sharply critical of laissez-faire capitalism; and committed to advancing democratic, egalitarian and emancipatory ideals across the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 days ago
  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Hipkins fires up in leaders’ debate, but has the curtain already fallen on the Labour-led coalitio...
    Labour’s  Chris Hipkins came out firing, in the  leaders’ debate  on Newshub’s evening programme, and most of  the pundits  rated  him the winner against National’s  Christopher Luxon. But will this make any difference when New  Zealanders  start casting their ballots? The problem  for  Hipkins is  that  voters are  all too ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    2 days ago
  • Govt is energising housing projects with solar power – and fuelling the public’s concept of a di...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Not long after Point of Order published data which show the substantial number of New Zealanders (77%) who believe NZ is becoming more divided, government ministers were braying about a programme which distributes some money to “the public” and some to “Maori”. The ministers were dishing ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • MIKE GRIMSHAW: Election 2023 – a totemic & charisma failure?
    The D&W analysis Michael Grimshaw writes –  Given the apathy, disengagement, disillusionment, and all-round ennui of this year’s general election, it was considered time to bring in those noted political operatives and spin doctors D&W, the long-established consultancy firm run by Emile Durkheim and Max Weber. Known for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • FROM BFD: Will Winston be the spectre we think?
    Kissy kissy. Cartoon credit BoomSlang. The BFD. JC writes-  Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former. This week Luxon declared his position, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • California’s climate disclosure bill could have a huge impact across the U.S.
    This re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Andy Furillo was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The California Legislature took a step last week that has the potential to accelerate the fight against climate ...
    2 days ago
  • Untangling South East Queensland’s Public Transport
    This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago
  • Try A Little Kindness.
    My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • What makes NZFirst tick
    New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • September AMA
    Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Bludgers lying in the scratcher making fools of us all
    The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving. They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • More “partnerships” (by the look of it) and redress of over $30 million in Treaty settlement wit...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point of Order has waited until now – 3.45pm – for today’s officially posted government announcements.  There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehive’s website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • ALEX HOLLAND: Labour’s spending
    Alex Holland writes –  In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealand’s government debt ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • If not now, then when?
    Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • THE FACTS:  77% of Kiwis believe NZ is becoming more divided
    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    3 days ago
  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Old habits
    Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations which could be more nuanced. ...
    Real ClimateBy rasmus
    3 days ago
  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    4 days ago
  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    4 days ago
  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    4 days ago
  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago
  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    4 days ago
  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    4 days ago
  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    4 days ago
  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    5 days ago
  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • A pallid shade of Green III
    Clearly Labour's focus groups are telling it that it needs to pay more attention to climate change - because hot on the heels of their weaksauce energy efficiency pilot programme and not-great-but-better-than-nothing solar grants, they've released a full climate manifesto. Unfortunately, the core policies in it - a second Emissions ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A coalition of racism, cruelty, and chaos
    Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • More migrant workers should help generate the tax income needed to provide benefits for job seekers
    Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Letter To Luxon.
    Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Alarming trend in benefit numbers
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON: Has there been external structural change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.   Brian Easton writes –  Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • CRL Progress – Sep-23
    It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
    5 days ago
  • Monday’s Chorus: Not building nearly enough
    We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Game on; Hipkins comes out punching
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Tax Cut Austerity Blues.
    The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • MIKE GRIMSHAW:  It’s the economy – and the spirit – Stupid…
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Over the past 30-odd years it’s become almost an orthodoxy to blame or invoke neoliberalism for the failures of New Zealand society. On the left the usual response goes something like, neoliberalism is the cause of everything that’s gone wrong and the answer ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 17, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 23, 2023. Story of the Week  Opinion: Let’s free ourselves from the story of economic growth A relentless focus on economic growth has ushered in ...
    6 days ago
  • The End Of The World.
    Have you been looking out of your window for signs of the apocalypse? Don’t worry, you haven’t been door knocked by a representative of the Brian Tamaki party. They’re probably a bit busy this morning spruiking salvation, or getting ready to march on our parliament, which is closed. No, I’ve ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Climate Town: The Brainwashing Of America's Children
    Climate Town is the YouTube channel of Rollie Williams and a ragtag team of climate communicators, creatives and comedians. They examine climate change in a way that doesn’t make you want to eat a cyanide pill. Get informed about the climate crisis before the weather does it for you. The latest ...
    1 week ago
  • Has There Been External Structural Change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • Another Labour bully
    Back in June, we learned that Kiri Allan was a Parliamentary bully. And now there's another one: Labour MP Shanan Halbert: The Labour Party was alerted to concerns about [Halbert's] alleged behaviour a year ago but because staffers wanted to remain anonymous, no formal process was undertaken [...] The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Ignoring our biggest problem
    Its that time in the election season where the status quo parties are busy accusing each other of having fiscal holes in a desperate effort to appear more "responsible" (but not, you understand, by promising to tax wealth or land to give the government the revenue it needs to do ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
    Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilience
    The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solar
    The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Appointment of District Court Judge
    Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today.  Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
    The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
    Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
    The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
    The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
    The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
    Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Strong export boost as NZ economy turns corner
    An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
    The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
    The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
    Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General Assembly
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Midwives’ pay equity offer reached
    Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
    Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
    The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today.  A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government invests in Greymouth’s future
    The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflation
    Economy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New cancer centre opens in Christchurch
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience
    $12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...
    Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2023-09-30T02:43:51+00:00