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Auckland’s election result was not so bad

Written By: - Date published: 2:55 pm, December 14th, 2011 - 50 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour - Tags:

mickysavage at Waitakere News writes about a topic that none of us have had time for – numbers. The leadership changes have been clogging the posts.

The election result figures are finally in.  At 27.5% of the popular vote Labour’s result is the worst since the 1930s although not that much worse than 1996’s 28.2%.

National is up slightly by 2.4 percentage points but obviously at the cost of ACT who slumped 2.6 points.

Nationally Labour ‘s vote decreased by 6.5 percentage points.  But in Auckland (urban general electorates) the party performed relatively well and the vote decreased only by 2.6 points.  This was more than compensated for by the increase in the Green vote (3.6%) and the NZ First vote (2.3%).  National’s vote increased slightly (0.8%) but with the decimation of ACT the NACT vote actually went backwards.

There were some stunning results, particularly in South Auckland where Labour’s share of the vote increased by 10.2% in Mangere, 7.3% in Manukau East and 5.2% in Manurewa.  And in Phil Goff’s Mount Roskill it increased by 1%.  These were very good results in an election where the tide was going out.

The following table sets out the movement of Labour’s party vote in the various seats and nationally:

Nationwide -6.5%
Mangere 10.2%
Manukau East 7.4%
Manurewa 5.2%
Mt Roskill 1.0%
Botany -0.7%
Papakura -2.1%
Waitakere -2.6%
Te Atatu -2.6%
Maungakiekie -2.7%
New Lynn -3.3%
Tamaki -3.6%
Hunua -3.6%
Pakuranga -3.7%
Helensville -4.1%
East Coast Bays -4.4%
Epsom -4.5%
Northcote -4.7%
North Shore -5.2%
Mt Albert -5.5%
Rodney -7.2%
Auckland Central -9.4%

Auckland Central’s result may be a reflection of the tight candidate race that occurred there.  Voters may have given Jacinda Ardern their candidate vote at the expense of the party vote.

A comparison with other urban centers provides some interesting results.  In Wellington the Labour vote shed 7.3 percentage points, in Christchurch the figure was 10.2% and in Dunedin a jaw dropping 10.3%.  Christchurch could be explained by the earthquakes and the displacement caused but Dunedin’s result will need further analysis.

Why was the Auckland figure better?  A number of reasons spring to mind.  These include the disaster that is Super city, Labour’s proposal to partially fund the inner city loop, and an energetic effort by activists over the past three years.  Certainly the seats with the greatest activity enjoyed the best results.  South Auckland clearly returned to the fold.  At the last election its turnout was muted by the anti smacking legislation and a series of high profile murders in the area that caused law and order to be a major issue.  The “Street Captain” scheme put in place by the Service and Food Workers Union also would have helped.

No doubt more detailed analysis of the results will occur and conclusions will be drawn.  But the Auckland result is a glimmer of light for Labour and raises some possible courses of action for Labour to consider in its quest to regain the Government benches.

50 comments on “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

  1. gingercrush 1

    Mt. Albert and Auckland Central do have to be a worry though.

    Auckland Central looks like Labour’s vote went to be both the Greens and National. Mt. Albert it simply looks like more went to the Greens rather than to Labour. Otherwise, it just appears Labour lost more votes in already strong National-held electorates.

    National didn’t really increase the vote meanwhile NZ First and the Greens vote grew considerably (much in the same way United Future and NZ First grew in 2002). That is what I find most frustrating. Because in 2002 Labour and the Greens were effectively on 48% and Progressives were 1.7%. The danger 2011 shows for National and the right is that at what should have been our greatest hour we’re still just over 50%. I suspect most of Dunedin’s vote simply went to the Greens. Dunedin South one needs to remember now covers a number of country areas.

    Though actually if you look at every MMP election the left or right have only been able to get 50% and a bit.

    • By my calculations the National vote in Christchurch went up 7.43% and in Dunedin by 4.3%.  The Green vote went up 4.7% and 7.1% respectively.

      In Auckland Central the Green vote went up by 7.3% and in Mt Albert by 6.15%.  The National vote went up by 2.1% and 1% in those seats.

      • mik e 1.1.1

        in dunedin the local national machine has been very high profile with a very prominent building on the main street + Cars that have very attractive advertising.Woodhouse has got around the electorate and kept the National party in the news.
        Labour and the left need to lift their game down here.

    • lprent 1.2

      Auckland Central has a rapidly moving population and quite young population. Most of the population growth is in apartments sold to younger voters who happily split their votes. It is a problem for Labour on the party vote.

      Most of Labour’s emphasis in that electorate has wound up on the electorate vote – as you can see. Labour’s electorate vote held up with help from Green voters, but their party vote went to the Greens. Good for the left if you want an overhang. Not so good if it doesn’t come off. 

      Turn out was down about thousand.

      Mt Albert was down by about two thousand. The electorate had gone from having a PM to just an MP, so I was expecting to see a drop – and you can see it in the electorate vote. I saw one after Helen became leader of the opposition – leader effect. That is also probably mostly why Mt Roskill went up. It does carry through to the party vote as well. 

      The challenge in Mt Albert has always been to keep National party vote from growing too much. But this time as you say left vote leaked to the greens. They ran a party vote only campaign and that actually works quite well for them because they preach the vote splitting mantra..

      The greens  are getting a lot smarter in their campaigning. In some ways that is good (because they have been pretty dumb and focused on stunts in the past). Does make it harder campaigning against both them and National.

      I don’t know much about the Mt Albert campaign this time. I pretty much limited myself to e-day target selection because I didn’t want campaigning pressures. 

      • nadis 1.2.1

        What is “e-day target selection”?

        • lprent 1.2.1.1

          Figuring out who you want to remind that it is election day and that they should get out and vote.

          There are about a million Kiwi’s who were enrolled and who didn’t vote in the 2011 election. Believe or not people actually forget to vote. Having someone knocking on their door or phoning them up helps a lot to get them to the polling booth.

          Labour has done this for a long time and it works. Labour vote is far more affected by the number of people turning out to vote than Nationals.

          Obviously we don’t like reminding National voters to vote, so we’re selective about who we’re going expend effort on.

          There are some pretty specific rules about what can and cannot be said, what can be worn, and what can be done.

          • nadis 1.2.1.1.1

            thks.

            Has anyone tried to do an analysis of how many people are registered to vote but live in Australia or further offshore?

            For instance I remained registered in a Wellington electorate for 15 years while living overseas – probably voted in just one or two elections in that period.

            • lprent 1.2.1.1.1.1

              The electronic roll has a mailing address that many people actually use. I’ve tagged it in my targeting code to indicate people that aren’t likely to actually be present in the electorate (and that should be handled differently). I gather that the electoral commission does the same.

              There are people who don’t do that and their mail goes to parents or flatmates or friends or the like. That is usually a bad idea because people move and you can get dropped from the roll.

              The way that electoral commission drops people from the roll is using the mail system. They periodically send e-mail to every voter and if the mail bounces (gone no address) then they will eventually remove people from the roll. It is easy enough to update your mailing address online at http://www.elections.org.nz

              There are numbers of overseas in most areas, especially around student towns. They aren’t that high. Your 15 years is one of the longest I know off because there is a requirement that you have to be back for at least a short period every few years to be able to vote and most people who are offshore for a long time tend to fail that requirement at least some time (don’t know the details).

              I don’t know if the electoral commission looks at the border control databases to see if people do come back into the country within the required timeframes. They probably should if they don’t.

  2. insider 2

    “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

    That is such a sad headline, and I don’t mean in an unhappy way.

    • Silver lining insider, silver lining …

      • Tigger 2.1.1

        If we are to win we need to be realistic.  I keep hearing that Labour were ‘decimated’. We weren’t.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.1

          Key was always going to win, he was way ahead all the time, well that’s the way I heard it.

          Facts differ from the MSM take though.

          Key lost because now he is one seat away from oblivion, his hold on power is down, and all it takes is a leadership threat.

          Key is out of touch with the needs of the NZ economy, those that voted National did so more out of desperation to keep their lifestyles.

          However peak oil is a threat to our primary exports, a game changer.

          Our tax system is weak and allows for more debt capacity that is safe in the world economy.

          Free trade means we cannot be a back water yet National voters want us to remain a back water less they have to give up their tax advantages against their foreign competitors (who pay pay CGT).

          So how has Key won? He gets to do what, sell assets that most people think is wrong even those who believe in asset sales (just not at the bottom of the market! when the world banks are printing money).

          Its ludicrous how pathetic Key is.

      • insider 2.1.2

        I know that was the intent, it just came across as completely demoralised – kind of like saying ‘well at least it didn’t rain’ after being hammered by an innings and 34 runs. You’d have been better with “Signs for the future for Labour in Auckland vote” or similar

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          Lefties are crap at spin, generally speaking. Thats a compliment. Sort of.

          See what I mean!!! 😛

  3. Jill 3

    Thank you for highlighting the successful campaigns in South Auckland which included tried and true methods of street corner meetings, sign waving, hoardings on every fence we could find (painting the town red), but also the new street captains project in which we mobilised union members to do small tasks such as leaflet deliveries in their own neighbourhoods, giving them small blocks they could do after work, and then on Election Day giving them packs with lists of all enrolled voters in their streets to go and encourage them to vote.
    The literally hundreds of volunteers came back brimming with amazing stories of the lengths they went to to give our people the opportunity to vote. Most of all they felt really good that they had done it as door knocking is quite a scarey prospect. It helps they were visiting their own neighbours.
    We also have great candidates. In Mangere we have a relatively new MP in Sua William Sio who has huge community support. He was of course deputy mayor of Manukau City, a former trade unionist and fighter for democracy.
    In Manurewa, Louisa Wall, former Silver Fern and Black Fern (won the Rugby World Cup twice!), is the first Maori MP in a general seat in South Auckland since Winston Peters won Hunua for the Nats in the 1980s, and she is the first Labour woman to win a general seat in South Auckland — ever. That may be because she is the only one to have been selected! First time up in the seat, she increased the majority George Hawkins had to 8600. She is young, with a sharp intellect, and tells it how it is. You should have seen her in the markets and in the shopping centres. She
    has a genuine love for our people — a sign of a true leader. Watch this space!

    • seeker 3.1

      Thanks for posting this comment Jill and telling South Auckland’s stirring story. You have lifted my heart after the last couple of weeks and thanks too to South Auckland for mounting such a strong, passionate campaign. Amazing.

      Have been admiring Suo William Suo for a while now. His commitment, wisdom and integrity shines through. Likewise Louisa Wall, who I think was a cracking Labour selection. Both show a genuine love for people- (oh that more in the National government did) which I think should be a real prerequisite for a leader.
      I think the South Auckland spirit is a beacon of light for Labour, sincere thanks.

  4. muzza 4

    Whats even worse about Central Auckland is that Nikki Kaye is the epitome of a party stooge. Many communications with her…bright girl, but quite simply under the spell.

    Could be a good time to see the rise of the truly neutral independents, because the political landscape it simply a mess with oxygen thieves who should be nowhere near the public decision making process…that applies to all parties…

    I will be hoping to get something better out of Jacinda Adern, if I have to deal with a party MP. Let’s see if she can extrapolate herself from the stink that is party stoogery

    • Anthony 4.1

      Kaye works pretty hard for her win, Seen Kaye more times than I can count around the area, seen Jacinda once or twice ever.

    • Cactus Kate 4.2

      Muzzy you have a very short memory.

      Much to the horror of her caucus colleagues, Nikki opposed mining. I think you need to revisit the definition of the word stooge and maybe apply it to her opponent.

      • McFlock 4.2.1

        Nikki opposed mining on Great Barrier Island. The NIMBY MP.

        That bit of the mining plan was always going to be the hardest sell, anyway: a hippie retirement community in Auckland’s back yard. Tui moment.
         
        It was the standard enviro-spiking tactic, just like the snail relocation – stack up a few areas, then drop the one with biggest opposition as part of a “compromise”. But the majority of the plan is still implemented (well – the entire thing was a bit much for them to chew. Hopefully the asset sales plan will be the same).

        • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2.1.1

          Apparently Nikki has a hideaway on GBI…….. Farrar goes there a lot as well… the island that is…..maybe there is a connection here…or maybe friends with benefits

      • muzza 4.2.2

        Curious those bloggers who alter a name to something it’s not – Tells much about the responder, that they lack basic manners…

        Anyway, yes Nikki Kaye went against Gt Barrier safe in knowing that it was never a serious mining option (at that time anyway), and because it comes under her electorate – WOW, tough stuff..And do you really think JK would have let Auckland Central go straight back to Labour, if there was mining on Barrier, cos thats exactly what would have happened…there are too many negatives for them to go anywhere near Gt Barrier…It was hollow rhetoric from NK, as part of the transparent political game lead by Kate Wilkinson backed by JK etc, while using the mining issue as a massive focus group session…

        • Akldnut 4.2.2.1

          Can almost guarentee that she did it with the full consent of her leader.
          She’s just a party stooge who apart from that one incident has done virtually nothing.

  5. Waldo 5

    I haven’t looked at the numbers, but wouldn’t some of the rise in Sth Auckland be due to the collapse of the Pacific party?

    • Gazza it probably would have helped but I would guess much if their vote went to the Conservative Party and helped in the increase of NZ First’s vote.

      Using the back of a local envelope and presuming PP’s votes went to the Conservative Party, then to NZ First and then returned to Labour this would have accounted for maybe 5 percentage points of the Mangere increase but only modestly in Manurewa and Manukau East.

    • vidiot 5.2

      Very good observation – looking at Mangere, 2700 votes in 2008 for PP – which is less than the increase in LAB party vote in 2011.

  6. vidiot 6

    Just as well Mickey’s a lawyer & not an accountant, his maths is off, way off.

    Take Mangere 2008 – Party Votes for LAB 15,446 vs 2011 Party Vote for LAB 17960 – difference is a 16.2% increase (2514 votes). If you look directly at the candidate votes – 12651 vs 18177 – again (5526) a 43% increase in voter support for the candidate. Also interesting to see voter turnout was up for that seat.

    Perhaps you need to get Marty back on the numbers ?

    • The change is the increase in the percentage of the total vote gained.  It is not affected by turnout.

      • mickysavage 6.1.1

        The formula used is
         
        change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)-(2008Labourvote/2008total)
         
        A change in turnout does not affect the change in the percentage.
         
        My maths is fine thanks.

        • vidiot 6.1.1.1

          No, your math is lacking.

          Using your exact formula on Mangere results – http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-22.html vs http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorate-22.html.

          Change = (17960/25525) – (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) – (0.609238)
          Change = 0.094386

          Now if you change your formula to:
          Change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)/(2008Labourvote/2008total)
          Change = (17960/25525) / (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) / (0.609238)
          Change = 115.4925%

          So how did you get 10.2% ?

          • mickysavage 6.1.1.1.1

            You are including informal party votes in your calculations.  I took them out and used the total valid votes figure instead.

            Calculations for Mangere are:

            2008 –  15446/25074=61.6%
            2011 –  17960/25007=71.8%

            Change is 10.2%

            All analyses that I see strip out the invalid votes.

            As Lynn says it is a bit of a crude measure in some respects but it gives a reasonable sense of what happened and allows some understanding of voting trends.

    • lprent 6.2

      As Micky says – why would you introduce a extra factor into a comparison. 

      If you’re after accuracy then I could also suggest several other ways that would fix the problems in your comparisons.

      Micky’s ones however are rough but effective measures to look at differences between electorates and between elections in a meaningful way.

       

  7. PJH 7

    Generally, Pacific, Maori, and ethnic minority voters are not inclined to vote for the Greens. So Labour has done well in those seats where those groups predominate: the South Auckland seats (Pacific, Maori), Roskill, Botany and Pakuranga (ethnic minorities). With Pakuranga the comparison is best made with other blue suburban seats where Labour dropped more than in Pakuranga this time, eg, North Shore, having had very similar levels of support in earlier elections.
    Labour tended to lose most to the Greens and National where the Pakeha middle class predominates; I suspect the Labour caucus had this in mind yesterday.
    This is probably the strongest reason for variations in the Labour party vote across the city, over and above the strictly local effects such as that in Auckland Central.

  8. DS 8

    Dunedin wasn’t actually too ugly relative to the rest of the wider South Island. The oddities of the Dunedin South party vote was a reflection of some horrible booths out at Mosgiel (contrary to populr belief, Dunedin South is no longer simply “South Dunedin”), and that Dunedin South’s middle-class tends to be Blue, rather than Green. Dunedin North is still less generically Red, but its middle-class (dominated by the University) tends to be Green, rather than Blue. 

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      And don’t forget that Dunedin North numbers were also hit by the retirement of a well known, long serving MP (Pete Hodgson).

      • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1

        Isnt this all academic- National made a stunning recovery from a even more hideous thrashing (20.9% in 2002) so the only way is up for Labour in 2014.
        and National aint going to get another RWC or Canterbury Earthquake for a dead cat bounce

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          Yep. Goff did far far better in 2011 than English did in 2002. I feel that Goff was in too much of a rush to step down (or perhaps everyone was in too much of a rush to move in).

      • lprent 8.1.2

        Always happens..

        • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.2.1

          English stayed for a year…. and is still around 10 years later and he supposedly had marketable skills…cough

  9. Armchair Critic 9

    Your post abounds with faint praise micky, and faint praise ain’t a good thing. Look for the positives, Labour can’t afford to be too negative.
    In terms of the political parties it was a good election for NZ First, and the Greens. OTOH it was a bad election for Labour, ACT and the Maori Party. In the middle I’m putting National, who improved their party vote, but not by quite enough.
    In terms of political blocs the election was a bad for the right and showed a shift away from them. Like the RWC the favoured team won, but the margin was unexpectedly small. The mainstream narrative around the result conflates “the left” with “the Labour Party” and allows the illusion to be created of a solid mandate for the policy direction of the government. In fact with only minor shifts in voting patterns the government would have looked completely different. However…
    A brief side point – who was in charge of Labour’s election campaign? I tried hard to not be too negative about it, but in hindsight it was not good enough. Next time Labour must pursue the party vote like their lives depend on it, the focus on the candidates, at the expense of the leader and the party, was wrong.
    Back to what I wanted to say – “the left”, as a bloc, are fractured at the moment. With 14 Green Party MPs and Winston Peters back in Parliament, with unfinished business, Labour risk not being seen as “the Opposition” for the next term unless they get their act together, and quickly. Not because National will win the next election, they won’t, (unless there is a snap election within the year), but because the votes National loses will go to NZ First, back to moron parties like ACT and UF, and most of all to the disillusioned non-voting camp.
    It would be good to see Labour leading the left to a victory at the next election, rather than letting National lose it through unpopular policy. Labour need to:
    Start the election campaign now, especially the fundraising. I think it will be an early election, which is why I refer to the “next election”, rather than the “2014 election”. A by-election in either Auckland Central or Christchurch Central in 18 months time would be a nightmare for National.
    Oppose the government, after all Labour are the opposition.
    Unleash all of their talent. To this end, David C has to be Finance Minister. Otherwise I won’t split my vote next time, it will be all Green instead.
    Unify behind the leader the caucus selected
    Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.
    Find the good things from the 2011 election and roll them out across the country.
    Campaign for the party vote – unashamedly.
    Finally – ignore John Pagani. And Chris Trotter.
    On a technical note, I’m not sure whether your analysis compares apples with apples (it may well do). I voted Labour party vote and Green electorate vote. In my eyes that makes me a Labour voter this election, in accordance with the MMP electoral environment. The idea that people’s voting preference is determine by their electorate vote is, IMO, a hangover from FPP. Can you confirm the basis for your figures?

    • Thanks AC. good comments.

      To respond …

      1. If you include NZF in the left block then it was a good result and surprisingly close.
      2. Mallard was Labour’s campaign manager. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that all the John Key billboards were a play for the party vote and not doing the same with Goff cost us dearly.
      3. All electorate candidates should be told to campaign for the party vote, no matter how marginal the seat. After all nothing else counts.
      4. I agree Labour is very vulnerable right now.
      5. Labour does need to start the campaign now through a couple of policy campaigns, eg no asset sales.
      6. Yes to David C being finance spokesperson, wholeheartedly.
      7. Agred we need unity.
      8. The provinces and country is where the next election will be won.
      9. I agree about Pagani. I am afraid he may be chief of staff though …
      10. The analysis is based on the change in the proportion of the party vote only.

      • Armchair Critic 9.1.1

        1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.
        2. It’s the party vote that counts, Labour knew that in 2002. There’s no excuse for forgetting or thinking otherwise.
        3. Yes, it’s teamwork. Winning the party vote gets you and your colleagues into parliament, whereas winning the electorate vote just gets you into parliament. Of all the parties it is Labour that should know and live the value of working collaboratively and collectively for the greater good. Not vociferously campaigning for the party vote goes against the spirit of the party.
        4. The vulnerability will come from indecision. Much as I dislike much of what Winston Peters says, I acknowledge that he says it in a convincing manner and in a way that people understand. Labour have had three years for introspection. Now to the barricades.
        5 – 8. tick
        9. Oh shit. John Pagani – another good reason to give the Greens two ticks.
        10. Ta.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.

          NZF had 2 policies which would have really counted in this election as a bridge to Labour. No asset sales. And $15 minimum wage.

          The rest was detail which could have been worked around for the most part, even though as you say, NZF are not “of the left”.

      • muzza 9.1.2

        Cunliffe for Finance, argh, NO.

        The bloke does not even understand how the national debt is un-repayable, because he does not understand that our RBNZ/OoDM are private. Until he can get his head around the fact that Treasury can issue/purchase bonds directly with itself ( including the amount interest the loan would require to service it in total, over the duration of the bonds life), which is then as a total amount seeped into the system via public works infrastructure projects etc – This way the total repayable amount of the loan is in existence, and hence can be paid back, unlike currently where the priciple is loaned (by private banks, through our private RBNZ/OoDM, to the Public Treasury (govt), and the interest repayable on top of the priciple….where is money coming from to pay off the loan plus the interest (does the money supply magically expand organically?) – I think he mumbled something about fire up the printing press, when we met with him – Finance spokeman, again = NO

        Of course John Key understands all this, which makes him much worse than those who are simply too ignorant/stupid or unable to get their head around this issue!

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.

      +1 Thanks for the insight. I hope the Wellington heads get this.

  10. In Vino Veritas 10

    Manukau, Manurewa and Manukau East. Surely no one should be surprised Labour increased in these electorates? These are electorates where many get to vote themselves an income, or at the very least, transfers from the government that are greater than the tax that they pay.

    • lprent 10.1

      Does that explanation of self-interest explains why the Labour vote dropped a lot between 2005 and 2008?

      No?

      Do you ever turn on your brain before you write these dumbarse statements? Or do you expect us to keep correcting your unthinking bigotry forever…

      I swear that I find many right wingers think with the glands until challenged. That is a bias from observation here. IVV seems to get his from the obsessive group-think of the right.

  11. In Vino Veritas 11

    Thanks lprent. Sorry, but I thought I’d just join the crowd and make a few dumbarse comments, there are plenty flying about. Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

    I have a question though. Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

    • lprent 11.1

      Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

      Oh I’d agree. But there is a lot less of the unthinking bigotry which is what attracts my bile.

      Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

      Simplistic and the wrong question. Because the answer is maybe. Voting behavior is pretty damn complex and there are a lot of factors that go into peoples decisions.

      Ummm a simple answer for the simplistic. In these electorates you probably have the highest population of active church goers in the entire country. Those often overlap with the group of people who benefit from the welfare systems (as you’re trying to dog whistle to). People, especially church goers, will often vote in accordance with reasons related to their perception of morals instead of their economic interests.

      Now if you asked ….are more likely to vote for the party…. then I’d say yes. But it is just a probability based on an attribute, one amongst many attributes.

      When I’m doing profiling with canvass information I’m typically doing it on a matrix with hundreds of factors in the mix from public and electoral information. It winds up with predictive probabilities for individuals.

      Like your prediction, it is also guesswork. Just better organised, based on far more data and orders of magnitude more accurate according to the people who do contacts based on it.

      But I wouldn’t make simple minded assertions like yours. Having such assurance of being right is the role of bigots who know bugger all.

      BTW: If you ask people who campaigned in the 3M’s in 2008, you’ll find that they said that the local crime rate and the ‘anti-smacking’ changes made a bigger difference to local voting than almost any other set of factors.

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    1 day ago
  • Acknowledging an extraordinary te reo champion
    E tangi ana a Taranaki iwi, e tangi ana te ao Māori, otirā e tangi ana te motu. Mōu katoa ngā roimata e riringi whānui ana, mōu katoa ngā mihi.   E te kaikōkiri i te reo Māori, e Te Huirangi, takoto mai. Takoto mai me te mōhio ko ngā ...
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    1 day ago
  • Prime Minister’s remarks halfway through Alert Level 4 lockdown
    Today is day 15 of Alert Level 4 lockdown. And at the halfway mark I have no hesitation in saying, that what New Zealanders have done over the last two weeks is huge. In the face of the greatest threat to human health we have seen in over a century, ...
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    1 day ago
  • Licenses, WoFs and regos extended under lockdown
    All driver licences, WoFs, CoFs, and some vehicle certifications, that expired on or after 1 January 2020 will be valid for up to six months from 10 April 2020, Transport Minister Phil Twyford has announced. “People shouldn’t have to worry about getting fined for having an expired document if driving ...
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    1 day ago
  • Inquiry report into EQC released
    The Government has today released the report from the Public Inquiry into the Earthquake Commission chaired by Dame Silvia Cartwright.  Minister Responsible for the Earthquake Commission Grant Robertson says the Government wants to learn from people’s experiences following the Canterbury earthquakes and other recent natural disasters. “Dame Silvia’s report documents ...
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    1 day ago
  • More time for health workers and elderly to get flu vaccine
    The Government has extended by two weeks till April 27 the amount of time priority groups, such as health workers and those aged over 65, have to get their flu vaccine before it is made available to the wider public. This year’s vaccination campaign is a key component of the ...
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    1 day ago
  • Communities step up to help New Zealanders stay connected and fed during lockdown
    Communities stepping up to help New Zealanders stay at home to break the transmission of COVID-19 and save lives have received Government support, said Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni. “Delivering groceries for the elderly who can’t shop online, providing data packs for low income families to keep them connected, and being ...
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    2 days ago
  • 120 COVID-19 testing centres now operating
    Across New Zealand 120 sites are taking samples to be tested for COVID-19.   68 community based assessment centres (CBACs) have been established to take samples from people with COVID-19 symptoms. Alongside this, 52 other centres including designated general practices, swabbing centres, and mobile clinics are now testing people for ...
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    2 days ago
  • Covid19: Government moving quickly to roll out learning from home
    The Ministry of Education is working with partners to develop a package of options so that students can learn at home when Term 2 begins on 15 April, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Supports are also being prepared for households with children under five, to help parents and whānau ...
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    2 days ago
  • Making learning from home accessible to Māori learners and whānau
    Māori Television to begin educational te reo programmes Ki te Ao Mārama – a new online learning space Thousands of hard copy learning packs ready for distribution Helpdesk and advice service for kōhanga, kura and wharekura Television, the internet and hard copy learning packs are some of the ways whānau ...
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    2 days ago
  • New Zealand to provide assistance to Vanuatu following Tropical Cyclone Harold
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced an initial package of support to help the people and the Government of Vanuatu respond to the impact of Tropical Cyclone Harold. “Our Pacific neighbours have been hit by a Category 5 Cyclone at the same time as dealing with the economic impacts ...
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    2 days ago
  • Planning for the future of tourism
    Tourism New Zealand to lead work reimagining the way tourism operates in post-COVID-19 world. Ministers to review International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy investment plan. The Government, industry and business are working together to develop a plan for how tourism will operate in a post-COVID-19 world, Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis ...
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    2 days ago
  • NZ horticulture sector feeding Kiwis and the world during COVID-19
    More New Zealanders are taking up the chance to work in horticulture as the sector keeps New Zealanders fed and in jobs during the COVID-19 Alert Level 4 lockdown. “Our horticulture sector has long been one of New Zealand’s export star performers, contributing around $6 billion a year to our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Work to repurpose PGF funds begins
    The Provincial Development Unit is working through applications and projects to see where Provincial Growth Fund money can be repurposed for initiatives deemed more critical to fighting the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. “We need to be throwing everything we have at ...
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    3 days ago
  • A million workers supported by Govt wage subsidy
    The Government’s wage subsidy to protect jobs and keep workers and businesses connected during the lockdown has now supported over a million New Zealanders, with $6.6 billion already paid out. “We’re supporting businesses to pay wages, and stay connected with their workers so that we are all in a better ...
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    3 days ago
  • Government helps Pacific communities fight COVID
    The Government is stepping up efforts to help protect New Zealand’s Pacific communities in the fight against COVID-19. Cabinet has agreed that $17 million will be allocated to support a COVID-19 Pacific Response Package, which will: Support Pacific health and disability services facing increased demand; Ramp up public health messaging ...
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    3 days ago
  • Statement from the Prime Minister on Dr David Clark
    “Yesterday evening the Health Minister advised me of his trip to a beach during the lockdown and offered his resignation,” Jacinda Ardern said.  “Under normal conditions I would sack the Minister of Health. What he did was wrong, and there are no excuses.  “But right now, my priority is our ...
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    3 days ago
  • Statement from David Clark
    Last night as part of my preparation for the Epidemic Response Committee, I provided the Prime Minister with a complete picture of my activity outside my home during Alert Level 4.  That included the fact that on the first weekend of the Alert Level 4 lockdown I drove my family ...
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    3 days ago
  • COVID-19 mental health support begins
    A range of support is being rolled out across New Zealand to help people look after their mental health during COVID-19 Health Minister David Clark said this morning. “COVID-19 has brought a lot of uncertainty into our lives and many of us will be feeling some level of distress or ...
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    4 days ago
  • New Zealanders in Peru to be assisted by Government charter flight
    The New Zealand Government has made arrangements to charter a flight for New Zealanders stranded in Peru to depart the country, following agreement with the Chilean government to allow the necessary transit through Chile, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters announced today. “Like many travellers around the world at the moment, ...
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    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 Hospital Preparation Well Advanced
    Hospital preparations for COVID-19 are well advanced says Health Minister David Clark. “Hospitals across New Zealand are repurposing buildings and training staff to get ready for COVID-19 patients. This gives me confidence that we are well prepared for any potential increase in COVID-19 patients needing hospital level care,” said David ...
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    1 week ago
  • Further measures to support businesses
    The Government will be introducing legislation to make changes to the Companies Act to help companies facing insolvency due to COVID-19 to remain viable and keep New Zealanders in jobs. The temporary changes include: Giving directors of companies facing significant liquidity problems because of COVID-19 a ‘safe harbour’ from insolvency ...
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    1 week ago
  • Govt’s COVID plan, economic strength recognised
    The Government’s plan to cushion the blow of COVID-19 by supporting incomes, jobs and businesses, and position the economy to recover has been backed by another international report. International credit rating agency Moody’s today reaffirmed its highest Aaa credit rating on New Zealand, saying the economy is expected to remain ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government supports air services to offshore islands
    The Government has stepped in to support vital air links to our offshore islands, the Chatham Islands, Great Barrier Island and Motiti Island, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. “As part of our $600 million support package to minimise the impacts of COVID-19 on the aviation sector, the Government has ...
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    1 week ago
  • Funding certainty for sports through COVID-19
    National sports organisations have been given certainty of funding to ensure they can remain viable through the COVID-19 pandemic, Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “The global spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on sport and recreation in New Zealand, including the cancellation or postponement of ...
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    1 week ago
  • Butchers now allowed to process pork
    Changes have been made to allow butchers to process pork, only for supply to supermarkets or other processors or retailers that are open, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has announced. “We carefully weighed the risk of allowing butchers to open their shops for retail customers, but the risk of spreading COVID-19 ...
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    1 week ago
  • Essential workers leave scheme established
    Essential workers who take leave from work to comply with public health guidance are being supported with a leave scheme to ensure they will continue to receive income, say the Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Iain Lees-Galloway and Minister for Social Development, Carmel Sepuloni. A number of essential businesses ...
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    1 week ago
  • Govt WhatsApp helps share COVID-19 information
    A Government WhatsApp channel has been launched to help make information more easily accessible and shareable in the fight against COVID-19. Govt.NZ, which is free to use on any mobile device, will carry information and news for the public, businesses, healthcare providers, not for profits and local government. It can ...
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    1 week ago
  • Managed departure plan for stranded foreign nationals enables safe, orderly exit
    The Government has announced a plan to enable the safe, orderly exit of tens of thousands of stranded foreign nationals from New Zealand during the current COVID-19 Alert Level 4 restrictions, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters has said. “When we moved into lockdown a week ago, the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government delivers COVID-19 support to GPs and Pharmacies
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says the Government is delivering on its commitment to support general practice doctors and nurses, and pharmacies on the front-line of our fight against COVID-19. "For us to overcome COVID-19, we need community health services such as general practice and community pharmacy to step up ...
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    1 week ago
  • Susan Thomas the new Chief High Court Judge
    Justice Susan Thomas has been appointed Chief High Court Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.  She replaces Justice Geoffrey Venning who has resigned from the position.   David Parker paid tribute to Justice Venning, who he said had stewarded the High Court very capably over the last five years.   “On behalf ...
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    1 week ago
  • Business Finance Guarantee – applications open
    Businesses can start applying to their banks for loans under the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme set up to support the New Zealand economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re moving quickly to protect New Zealand businesses, jobs and the economy during this unprecedented global economic shock,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. ...
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    1 week ago
  • Work starts on ways to fast-track consents to boost recovery from Covid-19 downturn
    Work is underway looking at measures to speed up consents for development and infrastructure projects during the recovery from COVID 19, to provide jobs and stimulate our economy.  Environment Minister David Parker said the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis that will have a wide ranging and lasting impact ...
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    1 week ago
  • Advance payments to support contractors
    Advance payments will be made to transport construction industry contractors to retain the workforce and ensure it is ready to quickly gear up to build projects which will be vital to New Zealand’s COVID-19 economic recovery, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. He said keeping the workforce required to build ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government seeks infrastructure projects
    The Government has tasked a group of industry leaders to seek out infrastructure projects that are ready to start as soon as the construction industry returns to normal to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones say. The Infrastructure ...
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    1 week ago
  • Health system scaled up to prepare for COVID-19
    Work to scale up the health system in preparation for COVID-19 was today outlined by Health Minister David Clark, as he reported back to the new Epidemic Response Committee. “We are well placed to contain the spread of COVID-19. We have taken early and decisive action at our borders, and ...
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    1 week ago
  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
    The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach. The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to ...
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    1 week ago
  • Supermarkets able to open on Easter Sunday
    The Government is ensuring supermarkets can open on Easter Sunday so we can buy groceries, but stay closed on Good Friday allowing workers to take a break. This provides a balanced approach and ensures we avoid large queues that two days closure may cause. “Supermarkets will be able to open ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
    Following the successful conclusion of the Building Partner Capacity (BPC) mission at Taji, New Zealand defence personnel are returning to New Zealand from Iraq, in accordance with the Cabinet decision made in June 2019, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. “New Zealand is very ...
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    1 week ago