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Auckland’s election result was not so bad

Written By: - Date published: 2:55 pm, December 14th, 2011 - 50 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour - Tags:

mickysavage at Waitakere News writes about a topic that none of us have had time for – numbers. The leadership changes have been clogging the posts.

The election result figures are finally in.  At 27.5% of the popular vote Labour’s result is the worst since the 1930s although not that much worse than 1996’s 28.2%.

National is up slightly by 2.4 percentage points but obviously at the cost of ACT who slumped 2.6 points.

Nationally Labour ‘s vote decreased by 6.5 percentage points.  But in Auckland (urban general electorates) the party performed relatively well and the vote decreased only by 2.6 points.  This was more than compensated for by the increase in the Green vote (3.6%) and the NZ First vote (2.3%).  National’s vote increased slightly (0.8%) but with the decimation of ACT the NACT vote actually went backwards.

There were some stunning results, particularly in South Auckland where Labour’s share of the vote increased by 10.2% in Mangere, 7.3% in Manukau East and 5.2% in Manurewa.  And in Phil Goff’s Mount Roskill it increased by 1%.  These were very good results in an election where the tide was going out.

The following table sets out the movement of Labour’s party vote in the various seats and nationally:

Nationwide -6.5%
Mangere 10.2%
Manukau East 7.4%
Manurewa 5.2%
Mt Roskill 1.0%
Botany -0.7%
Papakura -2.1%
Waitakere -2.6%
Te Atatu -2.6%
Maungakiekie -2.7%
New Lynn -3.3%
Tamaki -3.6%
Hunua -3.6%
Pakuranga -3.7%
Helensville -4.1%
East Coast Bays -4.4%
Epsom -4.5%
Northcote -4.7%
North Shore -5.2%
Mt Albert -5.5%
Rodney -7.2%
Auckland Central -9.4%

Auckland Central’s result may be a reflection of the tight candidate race that occurred there.  Voters may have given Jacinda Ardern their candidate vote at the expense of the party vote.

A comparison with other urban centers provides some interesting results.  In Wellington the Labour vote shed 7.3 percentage points, in Christchurch the figure was 10.2% and in Dunedin a jaw dropping 10.3%.  Christchurch could be explained by the earthquakes and the displacement caused but Dunedin’s result will need further analysis.

Why was the Auckland figure better?  A number of reasons spring to mind.  These include the disaster that is Super city, Labour’s proposal to partially fund the inner city loop, and an energetic effort by activists over the past three years.  Certainly the seats with the greatest activity enjoyed the best results.  South Auckland clearly returned to the fold.  At the last election its turnout was muted by the anti smacking legislation and a series of high profile murders in the area that caused law and order to be a major issue.  The “Street Captain” scheme put in place by the Service and Food Workers Union also would have helped.

No doubt more detailed analysis of the results will occur and conclusions will be drawn.  But the Auckland result is a glimmer of light for Labour and raises some possible courses of action for Labour to consider in its quest to regain the Government benches.

50 comments on “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

  1. gingercrush 1

    Mt. Albert and Auckland Central do have to be a worry though.

    Auckland Central looks like Labour’s vote went to be both the Greens and National. Mt. Albert it simply looks like more went to the Greens rather than to Labour. Otherwise, it just appears Labour lost more votes in already strong National-held electorates.

    National didn’t really increase the vote meanwhile NZ First and the Greens vote grew considerably (much in the same way United Future and NZ First grew in 2002). That is what I find most frustrating. Because in 2002 Labour and the Greens were effectively on 48% and Progressives were 1.7%. The danger 2011 shows for National and the right is that at what should have been our greatest hour we’re still just over 50%. I suspect most of Dunedin’s vote simply went to the Greens. Dunedin South one needs to remember now covers a number of country areas.

    Though actually if you look at every MMP election the left or right have only been able to get 50% and a bit.

    • By my calculations the National vote in Christchurch went up 7.43% and in Dunedin by 4.3%.  The Green vote went up 4.7% and 7.1% respectively.

      In Auckland Central the Green vote went up by 7.3% and in Mt Albert by 6.15%.  The National vote went up by 2.1% and 1% in those seats.

      • mik e 1.1.1

        in dunedin the local national machine has been very high profile with a very prominent building on the main street + Cars that have very attractive advertising.Woodhouse has got around the electorate and kept the National party in the news.
        Labour and the left need to lift their game down here.

    • lprent 1.2

      Auckland Central has a rapidly moving population and quite young population. Most of the population growth is in apartments sold to younger voters who happily split their votes. It is a problem for Labour on the party vote.

      Most of Labour’s emphasis in that electorate has wound up on the electorate vote – as you can see. Labour’s electorate vote held up with help from Green voters, but their party vote went to the Greens. Good for the left if you want an overhang. Not so good if it doesn’t come off. 

      Turn out was down about thousand.

      Mt Albert was down by about two thousand. The electorate had gone from having a PM to just an MP, so I was expecting to see a drop – and you can see it in the electorate vote. I saw one after Helen became leader of the opposition – leader effect. That is also probably mostly why Mt Roskill went up. It does carry through to the party vote as well. 

      The challenge in Mt Albert has always been to keep National party vote from growing too much. But this time as you say left vote leaked to the greens. They ran a party vote only campaign and that actually works quite well for them because they preach the vote splitting mantra..

      The greens  are getting a lot smarter in their campaigning. In some ways that is good (because they have been pretty dumb and focused on stunts in the past). Does make it harder campaigning against both them and National.

      I don’t know much about the Mt Albert campaign this time. I pretty much limited myself to e-day target selection because I didn’t want campaigning pressures. 

      • nadis 1.2.1

        What is “e-day target selection”?

        • lprent 1.2.1.1

          Figuring out who you want to remind that it is election day and that they should get out and vote.

          There are about a million Kiwi’s who were enrolled and who didn’t vote in the 2011 election. Believe or not people actually forget to vote. Having someone knocking on their door or phoning them up helps a lot to get them to the polling booth.

          Labour has done this for a long time and it works. Labour vote is far more affected by the number of people turning out to vote than Nationals.

          Obviously we don’t like reminding National voters to vote, so we’re selective about who we’re going expend effort on.

          There are some pretty specific rules about what can and cannot be said, what can be worn, and what can be done.

          • nadis 1.2.1.1.1

            thks.

            Has anyone tried to do an analysis of how many people are registered to vote but live in Australia or further offshore?

            For instance I remained registered in a Wellington electorate for 15 years while living overseas – probably voted in just one or two elections in that period.

            • lprent 1.2.1.1.1.1

              The electronic roll has a mailing address that many people actually use. I’ve tagged it in my targeting code to indicate people that aren’t likely to actually be present in the electorate (and that should be handled differently). I gather that the electoral commission does the same.

              There are people who don’t do that and their mail goes to parents or flatmates or friends or the like. That is usually a bad idea because people move and you can get dropped from the roll.

              The way that electoral commission drops people from the roll is using the mail system. They periodically send e-mail to every voter and if the mail bounces (gone no address) then they will eventually remove people from the roll. It is easy enough to update your mailing address online at http://www.elections.org.nz

              There are numbers of overseas in most areas, especially around student towns. They aren’t that high. Your 15 years is one of the longest I know off because there is a requirement that you have to be back for at least a short period every few years to be able to vote and most people who are offshore for a long time tend to fail that requirement at least some time (don’t know the details).

              I don’t know if the electoral commission looks at the border control databases to see if people do come back into the country within the required timeframes. They probably should if they don’t.

  2. insider 2

    “Auckland’s election result was not so bad”

    That is such a sad headline, and I don’t mean in an unhappy way.

    • Silver lining insider, silver lining …

      • Tigger 2.1.1

        If we are to win we need to be realistic.  I keep hearing that Labour were ‘decimated’. We weren’t.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.1

          Key was always going to win, he was way ahead all the time, well that’s the way I heard it.

          Facts differ from the MSM take though.

          Key lost because now he is one seat away from oblivion, his hold on power is down, and all it takes is a leadership threat.

          Key is out of touch with the needs of the NZ economy, those that voted National did so more out of desperation to keep their lifestyles.

          However peak oil is a threat to our primary exports, a game changer.

          Our tax system is weak and allows for more debt capacity that is safe in the world economy.

          Free trade means we cannot be a back water yet National voters want us to remain a back water less they have to give up their tax advantages against their foreign competitors (who pay pay CGT).

          So how has Key won? He gets to do what, sell assets that most people think is wrong even those who believe in asset sales (just not at the bottom of the market! when the world banks are printing money).

          Its ludicrous how pathetic Key is.

      • insider 2.1.2

        I know that was the intent, it just came across as completely demoralised – kind of like saying ‘well at least it didn’t rain’ after being hammered by an innings and 34 runs. You’d have been better with “Signs for the future for Labour in Auckland vote” or similar

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.1

          Lefties are crap at spin, generally speaking. Thats a compliment. Sort of.

          See what I mean!!! 😛

  3. Jill 3

    Thank you for highlighting the successful campaigns in South Auckland which included tried and true methods of street corner meetings, sign waving, hoardings on every fence we could find (painting the town red), but also the new street captains project in which we mobilised union members to do small tasks such as leaflet deliveries in their own neighbourhoods, giving them small blocks they could do after work, and then on Election Day giving them packs with lists of all enrolled voters in their streets to go and encourage them to vote.
    The literally hundreds of volunteers came back brimming with amazing stories of the lengths they went to to give our people the opportunity to vote. Most of all they felt really good that they had done it as door knocking is quite a scarey prospect. It helps they were visiting their own neighbours.
    We also have great candidates. In Mangere we have a relatively new MP in Sua William Sio who has huge community support. He was of course deputy mayor of Manukau City, a former trade unionist and fighter for democracy.
    In Manurewa, Louisa Wall, former Silver Fern and Black Fern (won the Rugby World Cup twice!), is the first Maori MP in a general seat in South Auckland since Winston Peters won Hunua for the Nats in the 1980s, and she is the first Labour woman to win a general seat in South Auckland — ever. That may be because she is the only one to have been selected! First time up in the seat, she increased the majority George Hawkins had to 8600. She is young, with a sharp intellect, and tells it how it is. You should have seen her in the markets and in the shopping centres. She
    has a genuine love for our people — a sign of a true leader. Watch this space!

    • seeker 3.1

      Thanks for posting this comment Jill and telling South Auckland’s stirring story. You have lifted my heart after the last couple of weeks and thanks too to South Auckland for mounting such a strong, passionate campaign. Amazing.

      Have been admiring Suo William Suo for a while now. His commitment, wisdom and integrity shines through. Likewise Louisa Wall, who I think was a cracking Labour selection. Both show a genuine love for people- (oh that more in the National government did) which I think should be a real prerequisite for a leader.
      I think the South Auckland spirit is a beacon of light for Labour, sincere thanks.

  4. muzza 4

    Whats even worse about Central Auckland is that Nikki Kaye is the epitome of a party stooge. Many communications with her…bright girl, but quite simply under the spell.

    Could be a good time to see the rise of the truly neutral independents, because the political landscape it simply a mess with oxygen thieves who should be nowhere near the public decision making process…that applies to all parties…

    I will be hoping to get something better out of Jacinda Adern, if I have to deal with a party MP. Let’s see if she can extrapolate herself from the stink that is party stoogery

    • Anthony 4.1

      Kaye works pretty hard for her win, Seen Kaye more times than I can count around the area, seen Jacinda once or twice ever.

    • Cactus Kate 4.2

      Muzzy you have a very short memory.

      Much to the horror of her caucus colleagues, Nikki opposed mining. I think you need to revisit the definition of the word stooge and maybe apply it to her opponent.

      • McFlock 4.2.1

        Nikki opposed mining on Great Barrier Island. The NIMBY MP.

        That bit of the mining plan was always going to be the hardest sell, anyway: a hippie retirement community in Auckland’s back yard. Tui moment.
         
        It was the standard enviro-spiking tactic, just like the snail relocation – stack up a few areas, then drop the one with biggest opposition as part of a “compromise”. But the majority of the plan is still implemented (well – the entire thing was a bit much for them to chew. Hopefully the asset sales plan will be the same).

        • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2.1.1

          Apparently Nikki has a hideaway on GBI…….. Farrar goes there a lot as well… the island that is…..maybe there is a connection here…or maybe friends with benefits

      • muzza 4.2.2

        Curious those bloggers who alter a name to something it’s not – Tells much about the responder, that they lack basic manners…

        Anyway, yes Nikki Kaye went against Gt Barrier safe in knowing that it was never a serious mining option (at that time anyway), and because it comes under her electorate – WOW, tough stuff..And do you really think JK would have let Auckland Central go straight back to Labour, if there was mining on Barrier, cos thats exactly what would have happened…there are too many negatives for them to go anywhere near Gt Barrier…It was hollow rhetoric from NK, as part of the transparent political game lead by Kate Wilkinson backed by JK etc, while using the mining issue as a massive focus group session…

        • Akldnut 4.2.2.1

          Can almost guarentee that she did it with the full consent of her leader.
          She’s just a party stooge who apart from that one incident has done virtually nothing.

  5. Waldo 5

    I haven’t looked at the numbers, but wouldn’t some of the rise in Sth Auckland be due to the collapse of the Pacific party?

    • Gazza it probably would have helped but I would guess much if their vote went to the Conservative Party and helped in the increase of NZ First’s vote.

      Using the back of a local envelope and presuming PP’s votes went to the Conservative Party, then to NZ First and then returned to Labour this would have accounted for maybe 5 percentage points of the Mangere increase but only modestly in Manurewa and Manukau East.

    • vidiot 5.2

      Very good observation – looking at Mangere, 2700 votes in 2008 for PP – which is less than the increase in LAB party vote in 2011.

  6. vidiot 6

    Just as well Mickey’s a lawyer & not an accountant, his maths is off, way off.

    Take Mangere 2008 – Party Votes for LAB 15,446 vs 2011 Party Vote for LAB 17960 – difference is a 16.2% increase (2514 votes). If you look directly at the candidate votes – 12651 vs 18177 – again (5526) a 43% increase in voter support for the candidate. Also interesting to see voter turnout was up for that seat.

    Perhaps you need to get Marty back on the numbers ?

    • The change is the increase in the percentage of the total vote gained.  It is not affected by turnout.

      • mickysavage 6.1.1

        The formula used is
         
        change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)-(2008Labourvote/2008total)
         
        A change in turnout does not affect the change in the percentage.
         
        My maths is fine thanks.

        • vidiot 6.1.1.1

          No, your math is lacking.

          Using your exact formula on Mangere results – http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-22.html vs http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorate-22.html.

          Change = (17960/25525) – (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) – (0.609238)
          Change = 0.094386

          Now if you change your formula to:
          Change =(2011Labourvote/2011total)/(2008Labourvote/2008total)
          Change = (17960/25525) / (15446/25353)
          Change = (0.703624) / (0.609238)
          Change = 115.4925%

          So how did you get 10.2% ?

          • mickysavage 6.1.1.1.1

            You are including informal party votes in your calculations.  I took them out and used the total valid votes figure instead.

            Calculations for Mangere are:

            2008 –  15446/25074=61.6%
            2011 –  17960/25007=71.8%

            Change is 10.2%

            All analyses that I see strip out the invalid votes.

            As Lynn says it is a bit of a crude measure in some respects but it gives a reasonable sense of what happened and allows some understanding of voting trends.

    • lprent 6.2

      As Micky says – why would you introduce a extra factor into a comparison. 

      If you’re after accuracy then I could also suggest several other ways that would fix the problems in your comparisons.

      Micky’s ones however are rough but effective measures to look at differences between electorates and between elections in a meaningful way.

       

  7. PJH 7

    Generally, Pacific, Maori, and ethnic minority voters are not inclined to vote for the Greens. So Labour has done well in those seats where those groups predominate: the South Auckland seats (Pacific, Maori), Roskill, Botany and Pakuranga (ethnic minorities). With Pakuranga the comparison is best made with other blue suburban seats where Labour dropped more than in Pakuranga this time, eg, North Shore, having had very similar levels of support in earlier elections.
    Labour tended to lose most to the Greens and National where the Pakeha middle class predominates; I suspect the Labour caucus had this in mind yesterday.
    This is probably the strongest reason for variations in the Labour party vote across the city, over and above the strictly local effects such as that in Auckland Central.

  8. DS 8

    Dunedin wasn’t actually too ugly relative to the rest of the wider South Island. The oddities of the Dunedin South party vote was a reflection of some horrible booths out at Mosgiel (contrary to populr belief, Dunedin South is no longer simply “South Dunedin”), and that Dunedin South’s middle-class tends to be Blue, rather than Green. Dunedin North is still less generically Red, but its middle-class (dominated by the University) tends to be Green, rather than Blue. 

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      And don’t forget that Dunedin North numbers were also hit by the retirement of a well known, long serving MP (Pete Hodgson).

      • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1

        Isnt this all academic- National made a stunning recovery from a even more hideous thrashing (20.9% in 2002) so the only way is up for Labour in 2014.
        and National aint going to get another RWC or Canterbury Earthquake for a dead cat bounce

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          Yep. Goff did far far better in 2011 than English did in 2002. I feel that Goff was in too much of a rush to step down (or perhaps everyone was in too much of a rush to move in).

      • lprent 8.1.2

        Always happens..

        • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.2.1

          English stayed for a year…. and is still around 10 years later and he supposedly had marketable skills…cough

  9. Armchair Critic 9

    Your post abounds with faint praise micky, and faint praise ain’t a good thing. Look for the positives, Labour can’t afford to be too negative.
    In terms of the political parties it was a good election for NZ First, and the Greens. OTOH it was a bad election for Labour, ACT and the Maori Party. In the middle I’m putting National, who improved their party vote, but not by quite enough.
    In terms of political blocs the election was a bad for the right and showed a shift away from them. Like the RWC the favoured team won, but the margin was unexpectedly small. The mainstream narrative around the result conflates “the left” with “the Labour Party” and allows the illusion to be created of a solid mandate for the policy direction of the government. In fact with only minor shifts in voting patterns the government would have looked completely different. However…
    A brief side point – who was in charge of Labour’s election campaign? I tried hard to not be too negative about it, but in hindsight it was not good enough. Next time Labour must pursue the party vote like their lives depend on it, the focus on the candidates, at the expense of the leader and the party, was wrong.
    Back to what I wanted to say – “the left”, as a bloc, are fractured at the moment. With 14 Green Party MPs and Winston Peters back in Parliament, with unfinished business, Labour risk not being seen as “the Opposition” for the next term unless they get their act together, and quickly. Not because National will win the next election, they won’t, (unless there is a snap election within the year), but because the votes National loses will go to NZ First, back to moron parties like ACT and UF, and most of all to the disillusioned non-voting camp.
    It would be good to see Labour leading the left to a victory at the next election, rather than letting National lose it through unpopular policy. Labour need to:
    Start the election campaign now, especially the fundraising. I think it will be an early election, which is why I refer to the “next election”, rather than the “2014 election”. A by-election in either Auckland Central or Christchurch Central in 18 months time would be a nightmare for National.
    Oppose the government, after all Labour are the opposition.
    Unleash all of their talent. To this end, David C has to be Finance Minister. Otherwise I won’t split my vote next time, it will be all Green instead.
    Unify behind the leader the caucus selected
    Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.
    Find the good things from the 2011 election and roll them out across the country.
    Campaign for the party vote – unashamedly.
    Finally – ignore John Pagani. And Chris Trotter.
    On a technical note, I’m not sure whether your analysis compares apples with apples (it may well do). I voted Labour party vote and Green electorate vote. In my eyes that makes me a Labour voter this election, in accordance with the MMP electoral environment. The idea that people’s voting preference is determine by their electorate vote is, IMO, a hangover from FPP. Can you confirm the basis for your figures?

    • Thanks AC. good comments.

      To respond …

      1. If you include NZF in the left block then it was a good result and surprisingly close.
      2. Mallard was Labour’s campaign manager. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear that all the John Key billboards were a play for the party vote and not doing the same with Goff cost us dearly.
      3. All electorate candidates should be told to campaign for the party vote, no matter how marginal the seat. After all nothing else counts.
      4. I agree Labour is very vulnerable right now.
      5. Labour does need to start the campaign now through a couple of policy campaigns, eg no asset sales.
      6. Yes to David C being finance spokesperson, wholeheartedly.
      7. Agred we need unity.
      8. The provinces and country is where the next election will be won.
      9. I agree about Pagani. I am afraid he may be chief of staff though …
      10. The analysis is based on the change in the proportion of the party vote only.

      • Armchair Critic 9.1.1

        1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.
        2. It’s the party vote that counts, Labour knew that in 2002. There’s no excuse for forgetting or thinking otherwise.
        3. Yes, it’s teamwork. Winning the party vote gets you and your colleagues into parliament, whereas winning the electorate vote just gets you into parliament. Of all the parties it is Labour that should know and live the value of working collaboratively and collectively for the greater good. Not vociferously campaigning for the party vote goes against the spirit of the party.
        4. The vulnerability will come from indecision. Much as I dislike much of what Winston Peters says, I acknowledge that he says it in a convincing manner and in a way that people understand. Labour have had three years for introspection. Now to the barricades.
        5 – 8. tick
        9. Oh shit. John Pagani – another good reason to give the Greens two ticks.
        10. Ta.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          1. NZF could only be considered to be in the left bloc on the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” basis. I don’t consider them to be “of the left”.

          NZF had 2 policies which would have really counted in this election as a bridge to Labour. No asset sales. And $15 minimum wage.

          The rest was detail which could have been worked around for the most part, even though as you say, NZF are not “of the left”.

      • muzza 9.1.2

        Cunliffe for Finance, argh, NO.

        The bloke does not even understand how the national debt is un-repayable, because he does not understand that our RBNZ/OoDM are private. Until he can get his head around the fact that Treasury can issue/purchase bonds directly with itself ( including the amount interest the loan would require to service it in total, over the duration of the bonds life), which is then as a total amount seeped into the system via public works infrastructure projects etc – This way the total repayable amount of the loan is in existence, and hence can be paid back, unlike currently where the priciple is loaned (by private banks, through our private RBNZ/OoDM, to the Public Treasury (govt), and the interest repayable on top of the priciple….where is money coming from to pay off the loan plus the interest (does the money supply magically expand organically?) – I think he mumbled something about fire up the printing press, when we met with him – Finance spokeman, again = NO

        Of course John Key understands all this, which makes him much worse than those who are simply too ignorant/stupid or unable to get their head around this issue!

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      Reconnect with the rural electorates, for two reasons. Some farmers are Labour supporters, but they are quite secretive about it because they are expected to vote National. And small provincial towns have reasonable numbers of people to whom Labour’s policies and principles would appeal. The narrative that their electorate is a National stronghold discourages them from voting, and the idea that their MP belongs to a party who does hold the same interests means they have no desire to engage with their MP.

      +1 Thanks for the insight. I hope the Wellington heads get this.

  10. In Vino Veritas 10

    Manukau, Manurewa and Manukau East. Surely no one should be surprised Labour increased in these electorates? These are electorates where many get to vote themselves an income, or at the very least, transfers from the government that are greater than the tax that they pay.

    • lprent 10.1

      Does that explanation of self-interest explains why the Labour vote dropped a lot between 2005 and 2008?

      No?

      Do you ever turn on your brain before you write these dumbarse statements? Or do you expect us to keep correcting your unthinking bigotry forever…

      I swear that I find many right wingers think with the glands until challenged. That is a bias from observation here. IVV seems to get his from the obsessive group-think of the right.

  11. In Vino Veritas 11

    Thanks lprent. Sorry, but I thought I’d just join the crowd and make a few dumbarse comments, there are plenty flying about. Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

    I have a question though. Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

    • lprent 11.1

      Bigotry is not the sole property of the right wing I might add.

      Oh I’d agree. But there is a lot less of the unthinking bigotry which is what attracts my bile.

      Are you saying that those people in the electorates noted above, are not likely to vote for the party that gives them the most financial assistance?

      Simplistic and the wrong question. Because the answer is maybe. Voting behavior is pretty damn complex and there are a lot of factors that go into peoples decisions.

      Ummm a simple answer for the simplistic. In these electorates you probably have the highest population of active church goers in the entire country. Those often overlap with the group of people who benefit from the welfare systems (as you’re trying to dog whistle to). People, especially church goers, will often vote in accordance with reasons related to their perception of morals instead of their economic interests.

      Now if you asked ….are more likely to vote for the party…. then I’d say yes. But it is just a probability based on an attribute, one amongst many attributes.

      When I’m doing profiling with canvass information I’m typically doing it on a matrix with hundreds of factors in the mix from public and electoral information. It winds up with predictive probabilities for individuals.

      Like your prediction, it is also guesswork. Just better organised, based on far more data and orders of magnitude more accurate according to the people who do contacts based on it.

      But I wouldn’t make simple minded assertions like yours. Having such assurance of being right is the role of bigots who know bugger all.

      BTW: If you ask people who campaigned in the 3M’s in 2008, you’ll find that they said that the local crime rate and the ‘anti-smacking’ changes made a bigger difference to local voting than almost any other set of factors.

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    Introducing legislation which shits on the public's right to know seems to have become a daily occurrence for this government. Today's example is the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Bill. The bill establishes a framework for the establishment of "special purpose vehicles" (SPVs) to hide debt from local government balance sheets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    12 hours ago
  • Hard News: Public Address Word of the Year 2019: Time to vote!
    Below is the longlist of words and phrases generated in the korero phase of Public Address Word of the Year 2019, with some editorial moderation. Now it's time to vote. As you'll doubtless be able to see, you get three ranked choices. Use your power wisely. Or frivolously, whatever.As usual, ...
    13 hours ago
  • Encryption, passwords, and self-incrimination
    The University of Waikato and New Zealand Law Foundation have released a report today on the law around encryption in New Zealand. There's stuff in there about principles and values, and how proposed government policies to provide for "lawful access" by creating backdoors would destroy the trust which makes encryption ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    14 hours ago
  • Drawn
    A ballot for two Member's Bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Insurance (Prompt Settlement of Claims for Uninhabitable Residential Property) Bill (Stuart Smith) Social Security (Exemption for Ex Gratia and Compensation Payments) Amendment Bill (Willow-Jean Prime) Neither bill seems likely to be particularly controversial. This is ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    14 hours ago
  • Bougainville votes for independence
    Earlier in the month, Bougainvilleans went to the polls in a landmark referendum to decide on whether they would remain part of Papua New Guinea or become independent. Yesterday, the results came in, with over 97% support for independence. The referendum wasn't binding - instead it means negotiations with the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    15 hours ago
  • Bus strikes, suspensions and solidarity
    by Daphna Whitmore This week 800 unionised bus drivers in Auckland were suspended from work after they refused to collect fares as part of a campaign of industrial action. Drivers working for Auckland’s largest bus company NZ Bus are asking for more pay and better working conditions after being offered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    17 hours ago
  • How to support after the Whakaari/White Island volcanic eruption
    As details emerge about what unfolded on Whakaari / White Island two days ago, my thoughts go out to all the families affected by this terrible event. My thoughts are also with the first responders who worked in perilous circumstances to assist and protect those affected. Both local and ...
    SciBlogsBy Sarb Johal
    17 hours ago
  • Final BMG poll – nothing to see here
    BMG research have unleashed their final poll of the 2019 campaign:Westminster voting intention: CON: 41% (-)LAB: 32% (-)LDEM: 14% (-)GRN: 4% (-)BREX: 3% (-1)via @BMGResearch , 06 - 11 Dec Chgs. w/ 06 Dec That's a bit of a "Dunno why we bothered" sort of poll. "Phillip, I'm afraid I've been a ...
    18 hours ago
  • Grant Robertson Spends Up Large – On The Establishment!
    Grant Keeps On Trucking: Out of the $12 billion Robertson has announced for infrastructure investment, $8 billion will be allocated to specific projects, with the balance of $4 billion held in reserve. What does it say about this Government's "transformational" ambitions that 85 percent of that $8 billion is to ...
    20 hours ago
  • Boris Johnson … Hides … In a Fridge
    I am not making this up.First few lines of the Dail Mail write up:Boris Johnson's exasperated media minder swore on live TV today as the PM refused to speak to Good Morning Britain before trotting into a fridge as he started an early milkround in Yorkshire. Piers Morgan was visibly ...
    1 day ago
  • Shy Labour Voters?
    In previous elections pollsters have bemoaned the 'shy Tory' - the respondent who is so fearful of being judged as a cruel and heartless bastard by an anonymous pollster, or their spouses, workmates and friends, that they lie about their intention of voting Conservative, skewing the poll figures in Labour's ...
    1 day ago
  • Seven reasons to be wary of waste-to-energy proposals
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz I was in Switzerland recently and discovered that they haven’t ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 day ago
  • Reviewing the whitewash
    Back in 2015, then Ombudsman Beverley Wakem conducted a review of the OIA, Not a game of hide and seek. The "review" was a whitewash, which found no need for legislative change, and instead criticised the media and requesters - which destroyed Wakem's reputation, and undermined that of the Office ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • You Gov MRP Poll Out
    So, You Gov's MRP poll - the weird one that tries to reflect what will happen at a constituency level and which pretty much nailed the hung parliament in 2017 - is not looking too good for Labour:
    UK #GE2019 MRP seat projection:CON: 339 (-20)LAB: 231 (+20)SNP: 41 (-2)LDEM: 15 ...
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Accountability?
    We've known about climate change for over forty years now,and it has been a major political issue for twenty. And yet fossil fuel companies have kept polluting with impunity, while government have looked the other way and twiddled their thumbs and refused to do anything because "the economy", or just ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Delusional And Irrational: The Rise Of Paranoid Politics In New Zealand.
    Sheer Loopiness: Many of those expressing bemusement at the antics of these #turnardern effacers, were convinced that they were yet another expression of the National Party’s increasingly spiteful anti-government propaganda campaign. They marvelled at the oddness of the perpetrators’ mindset and questioned the common-sense of allowing the rest of New Zealand ...
    2 days ago
  • Things to know about Whakaari/White Island
    Brad Scott, GNS Science VolcanologistThis post was originally published by GeoNet. Following the 9 December devastating eruption at Whakaari/White Island we have put together some information about the island. New Zealand’s most active volcano Whakaari/White Island is currently New Zealand’s most active volcano, it has been since an eruptive episode ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 days ago
  • Status quo supports status quo
    The Justice Committee has reported back on its Inquiry into the 2017 General Election and 2016 Local Elections, with a host of recommendations about how to improve our electoral systems. Some of their recommendations are already incorporate din the Electoral Amendment Bill currently before Parliament, but there's also a recommendation ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • The Greens abandon NeoLiberalism
    Back in 2017, in order to make themselves "electable" in the eyes of rich people who oppose everything they stand for, the Greens signed up for NeoLiberalism, adopting a restrictive set of "Budget Responsibility Rules" which basicly prevented them from using government to make things better. Now, they're finally abandoning ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Lying about a failed war
    Since invading in 2001, the US has consistently claimed that their war in Afghanistan has been going well, even when it continued year after year after year. Of course, they were lying, and thanks to the Washington Post and the US Freedom of Information Act, we get to see just ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Artificial Intelligence and You
    How should we think about artificial intelligence and the implications that it has for our work and leisure? There are many articles on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on jobs, and the ethics of applications. These are important topics, but I want to focus on some less discussed aspects, ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    3 days ago
  • Statistical manipulation to get publishable results
    I love data. It’s amazing the sort of “discoveries” I can make given a data set and computer statistical package. It’s just so easy to search for relationships and test their statistical significance. Maybe relationships which ...
    3 days ago
  • More lies on the Twitter (Dan Hodges edition)
    The other big story concerning Leeds Hospital is Boris Johnson's bizzare behaviour at Leeds Hospital, where he was confronted by a journalist and challenged about a four year old boy with suspected pneumonia who was left sleeping on the floor, rather than getting  abed like a sick kid would in ...
    3 days ago
  • LabourActivistPunchedMattHancock’sSPADGate
    So, for a brief period of history, it was alleged that a protester had punched Matt Hancock's SPAD (not a euphemism; special adviser) when Hancock visited Leeds Hospital.This was reported by the likes of Robert Peston and Laura Keunssberg, as well as the less credible Guido Fawkes.  It also quickly ...
    3 days ago
  • France’s anti-Zionism is anti-liberté
    by Daphna Whitmore Last week France passed a law that equates anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism. It is based on a definition of anti-Semitism that includes criticism of Israel such as: “Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination, e.g., by claiming that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Another bus lockout
    Over the past year we've seen major bus problems in Hamilton and Wellington, as drivers have sought better wages and an end to the bullshit of split shifts, which basicly see them "married to the job". And now its Auckland's turn. When NZBus's drivers planned low-level strike action of not ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Showing us how its done
    The government has been congratulating itself over the passage of the Zero Carbon Act, which sets out long-term emissions targets. But those targets are insufficient. Meanwhile, Denmark is showing us how its done:Denmark’s parliament adopted a new climate law on Friday, committing to reach 70% below its 1990 emissions in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Public sector dysfunction should not be allowed to undermine freedom of information
    Another day, another piece of legislation with a secrecy clause. This time its the innocuous-seeming Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill, which (after establishing a new body and making it subject to the OIA in three different ways) includes the rapidly-becoming-standard clauses enabling it to request information from other public ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • “This is England, this knife of Sheffield steel…”
    The state of the United Kingdom is fractured, torn up, shredded. The Empire is gone, it died a long time ago. And yet, the country is still tracking with a lead in favour of the ones who play to the ingrained, class-bound division for political gain. It is a disgrace ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    5 days ago
  • CORSIA, coming soon to an airport near you
    On 27 September, Greta Thunberg addressed a crowd of 500,000 at the School Strike for Climate in Montreal, saying: “You are a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And Sweden is also a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And in both cases, it means absolutely nothing. Because ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    5 days ago
  • Cloaking hate speech and fake news in the right to free expression.
    It should be obvious by now but let’s be clear: The same folk who regularly traffic in disinformation, misinformation and “fake news” are also those who most strongly claim that their freedom of expression rights are being violated when moves are made to curb hate speech (as opposed to protected ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • The Physics (and Economics, and Politics) of Wheelchairs on Planes
    Michael Schulson When Shane Burcaw flies on an airplane, he brings along a customized gel cushion, a car seat, and about 10 pieces of memory foam. The whole arsenal costs around $1,000, but for Burcaw it’s a necessity. The 27-year-old author and speaker — who, alongside his fiancée, Hannah ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • To Advance Civil Rights, Oppose Transgender Extremism
    We are very pleased to publish this submission is from Lucinda Stoan. She is a social justice activist, mother, and educator, based in Washington State in the  US.   This detailed and comprehensive source-linked overview of trans issues and what is at stake will be useful for many people, especially in ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Faafoi should be fired
    Newshub last night reported that Broadcasting Minister Kris Faafoi had apparently promised to help out a mate with an immigration issue. While its normal for people to approach MPs for assistance in this area, when you're a Minister, the rules are different: as the Cabinet Manual says, Ministers must "at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Adrian Orr – The Reserve Bank’s Revolutionary Governor?
    New Zealand's Underarm Banker: It bears recalling that the “independence” of the Reserve Bank Governor was for decades held up by neoliberal capitalists as the most compelling justification for passing the Reserve Bank Act. Interesting, is it not, how the ruling class’s support for the Bank’s independence lasted no longer than ...
    7 days ago
  • Driving Us Up The Poll.
    Rubbish In, Rubbish Out: Put all this together, and it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that anyone who responds positively to a pollster’s request to “answer a few questions” is just ever-so-slightly weird. Desperately lonely? Some sort of psephological train-spotter? Political party member primed to skew the poll for or against ...
    7 days ago
  • Jordan Williams, Colin Craig podcast series announced
    “Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.” ― Martin Luther King Jr. A long and bitter court feud between former Conservative Party leader Colin Craig and Jordan Williams has been settled, with an apology and compensation from Williams. On Tuesday, Craig sent out ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    1 week ago
  • How plant-based meat is stretching New Zealand’s cultural and legal boundaries
    Samuel Becher, Victoria University of Wellington and Jessica C Lai, Victoria University of Wellington Earlier this year, the New Zealand-based pizza chain Hell Pizza offered a limited-edition “Burger Pizza”. Its customers weren’t told that the “meat” was plant-based. Some customers complained to the Commerce Commission, which enforces consumer law in ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Scientific integrity requires critical investigation – not blind acceptance
    Some people seem to want to close down any critical discussion of the current research into the relationship between water fluoride and child IQ. They appear to argue that claims made by researchers should not be open to critical review and that the claims be accepted without proper consideration ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The shameful reality
    The government has been congratulating itself over the passage of the Zero Carbon Act, which sets out long-term emissions targets. Meanwhile, Climate Action Tracker has the shameful reality: those targets are insufficient:While New Zealand is showing leadership by having passed the world’s second-ever Zero Carbon Act in November 2019, under ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • More secrecy
    The government introduced a Racing Industry Bill today. As an urban who horse racing as pointless-to-cruel, and gambling as a tax on stupidity and/or hope, this isn't normally a bill which would interest me in the slightest, beyond grumpiness at more government money for a dying industry. But there is ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Unlikely online bully, Liam Hehir
    Check. Check. One, two, three, four. Is this thing ON? Hello readers, I logged in last night (yeah, it’s been a while) to mark THE END of the landmark legal case, Jordan Williams v Colin Craig, which (gulp) reached The Supreme Court, in which New Zealand’s most-defamed man was suing the politician he ...
    The PaepaeBy Peter Aranyi
    1 week ago
  • The Birth Of Israel: Wrong At The Right Time.
    Before The Birth: Israel’s most fervent supporters set their clocks ticking in Biblical times. They cite the kingdoms of David and Solomon as proof that, in the words of the Exodus movie’s theme-song: “This land is mine.” The majority of Israel’s backers, however, start their clocks in 1933 – the year Adolf ...
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: Public Address Word of the Year 2019: Korero phase
    In an unreliable, strange and confusing world, Public Address is proud to present a measure of comfort and stability by annually asking everyone what words or phrases sum up the year that's been – and then giving some of them consumer goods as prizes for being clever or simply lucky.Well, ...
    1 week ago
  • Generalist to specialist
    Both my parents are pretty handy – and they seem to have the right tools for most jobs in the garage and they know how to fix practically anything. A similar story could be told about their generation’s experience in the workforce – being a generalist was not unusual and ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • A “coincidence”
    When it was revealed that NZ First had tried to enrich itself from public office via the Provoncial Growth Fund, the Prime Minister assured us that everything was OK as Shane Jones, the Minister responsible for the fund, had recused himself. Except it seems that that recusal came very late ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, and probably the last one of the year. After the marathon of the End of Life Choice Act, most of the bills up for debate today are uncontentious. First up is the second reading of Chlöe Swarbrick's Election Access Fund Bill. This will be followed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Worse than I thought
    The Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee has reported back on the government's odious and tyrannical control orders bill. As expected, the fraudulent select committee process has made no significant changes (partly because they couldn't agree, but mostly because it was a stitch-up from the start, with no intention of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The cannabis bill and the referendum
    Yesterday, the government released its draft Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill, which will be put to a non-binding referendum at the next election. I'm not a drug policy expert, but Russell Brown is, and he thinks its pretty good. And pretty obviously, it will be a massive improvement on the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: The Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill: pretty good so far
    As you're probably aware, the draft bill outlining the proposed legal cannabis regime to be put to a referendum late next year was published yesterday, and has already attracted a flurry of comment. It's notable that a good deal of the comment is about proposals that aren't actually new.A minimum ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Alignment
    One of the big problems in New Zealand climate change policy is the government working at cross-purposes with itself. It wants to reduce fossil fuel use, but encourages oil and gas exploration. It wants to reduce transport emissions, but then builds enormous new roads. The problem could be avoided if ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • How climate change will affect food production and security
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz According to the United Nations, food shortages are a threat ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • More bad faith
    Last year, the government announced it was ending offshore oil exploration by no longer issuing new permits. The idea was that the industry would then die off as permits expired. Except almost immediately the government revealed its bad faith, by saying they would extend permits and alter conditions to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Banning foreign money from our elections
    The government has said it will ban foreign donations to political parties and candidates, and will be introducing legislation to be passed under all-stages urgency this afternoon. While I agree with the goal, I don't see a particular case for urgency, unless the government is concerned about a flood of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Reforming the Education Acts
    The government introduced the Education and Training Bill to Parliament yesterday. Its a massive bill, which replaces both existing Education Acts, as well as various other bits of legislation (including some which are still proceeding through the House). I'll leave the serious analysis to teachers and people who actually know ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Bite-sized learning
    Amelia SharmanThere’s no one-size-fits-all when it comes to micro-credentials, those bits of bite-sized learning that can help workers stay on top of technological change.  What’s a micro-credential? While definitions vary, micro-credentials can be understood as short courses that allow people to learn new skills or have an existing competency recognised. ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • “Not The Labour Party We Once Knew.”
    All Smiles Now: Claire Szabo is taking up her presidential role after serving as the CEO of Habitat For Humanity. Which is absolutely perfect! After KiwiBuild was so comprehensively mismanaged by Phil Twyford, the party has not only elected a new president from a thoroughly respectable not-for-profit, but one who ...
    1 week ago
  • Marxist versus liberal methodology on transgender ideology/identity politics
    While much of the NZ left has transitioned to postmodern and identity politics in relation to transgender ideology, there are some very good articles about that deploy Marxist methodology in relation to this subject.  The one below is from the British marxist group Counterfire and appeared on their site here ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Book review: The Farm by Joanne Ramos
    by Daphna Whitmore At Golden Oaks, a luxurious country retreat in the Hudson Valley, pregnant women have the best care money can buy. From the organic food, personalised exercise programmes, private yoga instruction and daily massages Golden Oaks looks like a country lodge for the upper class. Set some time ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Loosening the purse strings
    When Labour was running for election in 2017, it felt it needed to demonstrate "fiscal responsibility" and signed itself up to masochistic "budget responsibility rules". It was a fool's errand: the sorts of voters who demand fiscal responsibility are also the sorts of voters who believe that labour can never ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: How to get there
    Writing in Stuff, Joel MacManus looks at what we need to do to meet the Zero Carbon Act's targets. The core of it:1. Convert 85 per cent of vehicles on the road to electric. 2. Eliminate fossil fuels from all industrial heating up to 300 degrees Celsius. 3. Double our ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • anti-vaxxers in a measles epidemic: so many ways to be untruthful
    “Anti-vaxers are a pro-death movement,” those comments from Dr Helen Petousis-Harris speaking about six more Measles related deaths in Samoa over the past twenty-four hours. “Anti-vaxers are a pro-death movement,” those comments from Dr Helen Petousis-Harris speaking about six more Measles related deaths in Samoa ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 weeks ago
  • Is Youth Vaping a Problem in New Zealand?
    Professors Janet Hoek and Richard Edwards, Emeritus Professor Phil Gendall, Jude Ball, Dr Judith McCool, Anaru Waa, Dr Becky Freeman Recent media reports have presented conflicting evidence on youth vaping in NZ. While some NZ school principals report concerns about increasing vaping on school grounds and confiscating vapes, ASH Year ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 weeks ago
  • In pursuit of “Freedom and Democracy”: Forever Wars in “America’s backyard”.
    “America the Beautiful!”, staunch defender of democracy, freedom and… a whole lot of despotic tyrants that play nice with what is called “the Washington Consensus.” America is indeed capable of immense good, but like any Nation, and most assuredly any aspirant to the mantle of Empire, great, immense evil. All ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • November ’19 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
    Image credit: The beginner’s guide to blogging I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Whodunnit? Finding the mystery 1080 testing lab
    1080 is used to control pests in NZ. Its use is contested by a noisy few. A new report claims high levels of 1080 in rats washed up on a beach. Flora and Fauna of Aotearoa (F&F) won’t name the laboratory that did their testing. It has sparked a hunt ...
    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    2 weeks ago
  • Authoritarian Friends, Democratic Enemies.
    What Kind Of Empire? The thing for Kiwis to decide is what kind of empire they want to belong to. The kind that, while offering its own citizens democratic rights, demands absolute obedience from its “friends”? Or, the kind that, while authoritarian at home, takes a relaxed attitude to the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Boris Johnson Goes Down
    It hasn't been a good week for the Conservatives, pollwise.  All major recent polls are showing their lead shrinking.Comparing each pollster's current (between 29/11 and 22/11) and previous most recent poll.Com Res - Conservative lead down 3 points.You Gov - Conservative lead down 1 point.Kantar - Conservative lead down 4 ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Interesting
    Within quick succession, Countdown maths wizard and twitterer Rachel Riley, alleged comedian David Baddiel and prominent lawyer Andrew Julius have all expressed very similar opinions / ideas:
    These #3billboards are going round London today, organised by ex-Labour people, horrified by what their party has become. Their principles haven’t changed, they’re ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Damn the Polls
    So, there have been a bunch of bad polls out for Labour, and even the Leftie's friend, Survation, have recently given the Conservatives a rip-snorting 11% lead.  You Gov's much vaunted MRP poll - which pretty much nailed the result in 2015 - is currently predicting a comfortable majority for ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Europe declares an emergency
    The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly to declare a climate emergency:The European parliament has declared a global “climate and environmental emergency” as it urged all EU countries to commit to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The vote came as scientists warned that the world may have already crossed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • A Bi-Partisan Commitment To X-ing “P”.
    Pure Fear: Worse than Heroin, this drug’s addictive power was terrifying. People under its influence didn’t drift off to Elysium. Nor did it persuade inadequate individuals that they could conquer the world. No, this drug – pure crystal methamphetamine, “P” for short – unlocked the gates of Hell itself. It ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Advice about measles: when ignorance is definitely not a virtue
    As the rate of measles infection, and of deaths, continues to climb in Samoa, antivaccination activists infectious disease proponents seem intent on doubling down on their claims about vaccination. (Check pretty much any news-media FB post about measles & you’ll see exactly what I mean.) Unfortunately, some of them have ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 weeks ago

  • Government takes bite out of loan sharks
    The days of vulnerable consumers falling victim to loan sharks, truck shops and other predatory lenders are numbered, following the Credit Contracts Legislation Amendment Bill passing its third reading tonight. “Too many Kiwis are being given loans that are unaffordable and unsuitable, trapping them in debt and leaving their families ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • New Zealand safer as Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders Bill) becomes law
    A Bill that prevents terrorism and supports the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas has passed its third reading, Justice Minister Andrew Little says. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill is a carefully targeted response to manage the risk posed by a small number of New Zealanders who have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Foreign Minister and Pacific Peoples Minister to visit Samoa
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio will travel to Samoa on Friday, where New Zealand medical teams are helping Samoa respond to an outbreak of measles. “New Zealand has been working closely with the Government of Samoa and offering our assistance from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • New Pastoral Care Code will support tertiary students in 2020
    The Government has changed the law to improve student safety and welfare in university halls of residence and other student accommodation. The Education (Pastoral Care) Amendment Bill passed its third reading this afternoon and details of an interim Code of Practice setting out the Government’s expectations of tertiary providers have also been released. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • New infrastructure funding tool to build housing developments faster
    A new tool to help councils fund and finance infrastructure could mean some housing developments happen a decade earlier than currently planned, Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford said today. “This new tool, developed by the Government in partnership with industry and high-growth councils, will allow councils to access private debt ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Vision to unite the primary sector launched today
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has welcomed the release of a bold new vision for the country’s vital food and fibre sector. “I’m delighted that New Zealand’s major farmer and grower organisations are today supporting the Primary Sector Council’s vision – Fit for a Better World,” he said. “The international consumers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • NZ congratulates PNG and Autonomous Bougainville Government on referendum
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has congratulated the Government of Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government for completing a well-conducted referendum on the future political status of Bougainville. “New Zealand supported the referendum process by providing technical advice through the New Zealand Electoral Commission and leading a Regional Police ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Next steps for Upper North Island logistics
    In light of Cabinet’s position that freight operations on prime land in downtown Auckland are no longer viable, the Government will now embark on a short work programme to enable decision-making in the first half of next year, Associate Transport Minister Shane Jones says. Minister Jones is today releasing the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Surgical mesh restorative justice report received
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter has received the report back from a surgical mesh restorative justice process undertaken by Victoria University. The process heard stories, either in person or online submission, from more than 600 people affected by surgical mesh. “The report made for heart-breaking and confronting reading,” says ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • The Water Services Regulator Bill – Taumata Arowai a milestone for drinking water safety
    The Water Services Regulator Bill – Taumata Arowai , introduced to Parliament today, is a milestone for drinking water safety in New Zealand and will help improve environmental outcomes for urban waterways, rivers and lakes.  “This is a breakthrough for New Zealanders in terms of providing safe drinking water throughout ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Speech to new direction for criminal justice reform announcement
    Kia ora koutouE ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā matā wakaTēnā koutou katoaHaere ngā, moe maiKoutou ma ngā Rangatira Ko Anaru ahauKo au te Minita mo ngā TureHe Honore tino nui kei roto I ahau No reira tena koutou katoa Today, we are releasing two reports that are the ...
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    18 hours ago
  • New direction for criminal justice reform
    The Government is looking to turn around the long-term challenges of criminal justice by taking a new approach to break the cycle of offending to ensure there are fewer victims of crime. Justice Minister Andrew Little released two reports today, Turuki! Turuki! from Te Uepū Hāpai I te Ora, and ...
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    18 hours ago
  • New law sets up $300m Venture Capital Fund
    New Zealand firms expanding beyond the start-up phase are set for more support after today’s passage of the Venture Capital Fund Bill, Associate Finance Minister David Parker said. The Bill, which establishes a $300 million Venture Capital Fund, puts in place a key initiative of the Wellbeing Budget’s economic package. ...
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    1 day ago
  • New Zealand’s National Statement to COP25
    E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā iwi, e ngā rau rangatira mā. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Señora Presidenta, Excellencies, Delegates. International action A common thread that runs through the Paris Agreement is the commitment we have made to each other to do what we can to ...
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    1 day ago
  • $12 billion in extra infrastructure investment
    The Government is lifting capital investment to the highest level in more than 20 years as it takes the next step to future-proof New Zealand. Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced $12 billion of new investment, with $8 billion for specific capital projects and $4 billion to be added to ...
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    2 days ago
  • Strong economy, careful spending gives $12bn of surpluses
    The Government is forecast to run $12 billion worth of surpluses across the four years to 2023/24 as the economy continues to grow. The surpluses will help fund day-to-day capital requirements each year. These include fixing leaky hospitals, building new classrooms to cover population growth and take pressure off class ...
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    2 days ago
  • Priorities for 2020 Wellbeing Budget outlined
    Budget 2020 will continue the Coalition Government’s focus on tackling the long-term challenges facing New Zealand while also investing to future-proof the economy. When the Government took office in 2017 it was left with crumbling infrastructure, severe underinvestment in public services, degraded rivers and lakes, a housing crisis and rising ...
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    2 days ago
  • Minister welcomes data-rich coastline mapping tool
    The Minister responsible for the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act 2011 (te Takutai Moana Act 2011), Andrew Little has welcomed the launch of an online geospatial tool that provides data-rich, dynamic coastline maps that will significantly boost research and evidence-gathering under the Act. Te Kete Kōrero a Te ...
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    2 days ago
  • Chief Victims Advisor reappointed for a further two years
    The Chief Victims Advisor to Government Dr Kim McGregor, QSO, has been reappointed in her role for a further two years. Dr McGregor has held the role since it was established in November 2015. She provides independent advice to government on how to improve the criminal justice system for victims. ...
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    2 days ago
  • New Zealand tsunami monitoring and detection system to be established
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Civil Defence Minister Peeni Henare have today announced the deployment of a network of DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys. “New Zealand and the Pacific region are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. It is vital we have adequate warning systems in place,” ...
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    2 days ago
  • DART Buoys Announcement
    DART Buoys Announcement Aotea Wharf, 9.30am 11 December 2019   Acknowledgements Acknowledgements to Minister for Civil Defence Hon Peeni Henare also here today. White Island It is with regret that this event shadows the tragic natural disaster two days ago. The volcanic eruptions on White Island have claimed 5 lives, ...
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    2 days ago
  • Final steps for racing industry reform
    Racing Minister Winston Peters has welcomed the first reading of the Racing Industry Bill in parliament today. This is the second of two Bills that have been introduced this year to revitalise New Zealand’s racing industry. “Our domestic racing industry has been in serious decline.  The Government is committed to ...
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    2 days ago
  • Funding to promote New Zealand Sign Language initiatives
    Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni, is pleased to announce that $291,321 is to be awarded to national and local community initiatives to maintain and promote the use of New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL). “New Zealand is one of the few countries  in the world where Sign Language is an ...
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    2 days ago
  • How New Zealand defines and recognises veterans
    Minister for Veterans Ron Mark has announced today the Coalition Government’s initial response to work completed by the independent statutory body, the Veterans’ Advisory Board. “When Professor Ron Paterson completed his review of the Veterans’ Support Act in 2018, he made a number of recommendations, including one which I referred ...
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    3 days ago
  • Government to fund lion’s share of Ohakea water scheme
    The Government will fund the bulk of the cost of a rural water supply for the Ohakea community affected by PFAS contamination, Environment Minister David Parker announced today at a meeting of local residents. This new water scheme will provide a reliable and clean source of drinking water to the ...
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    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister statement on White Island eruption
    I have had the opportunity to be briefed on the details of the volcanic eruption of Whakaari/White Island, off the coast of Whakatane in the Bay of Plenty.  The eruption happened at 2.11pm today.  It continues to be an evolving situation.  We know that there were a number of tourists ...
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    3 days ago
  • Govt funds $100k for weather-hit communities
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare have today confirmed initial Government support of $100,000 for communities affected by the severe weather that swept across the South Island and lower North Island over the weekend. The contribution will be made to Mayoral relief funds across the ...
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    3 days ago
  • Death of NZ High Commissioner to Cook Islands
    New Zealand's High Commissioner to the Cook Islands, Tessa Temata, died in Palmerston North over the weekend, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said today. Ms Temata, 52, had recently returned to New Zealand for medical treatment. "On behalf of the Government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, we extend ...
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    4 days ago
  • Wellington rail upgrade full steam ahead
    Transport Minister Phil Twyford today announced construction is underway on Wellington commuter rail upgrades which will mean more frequent services and fewer breakdowns. The upgrades include converting the Trentham to Upper Hutt single track section to a double track, with a new signalling system, upgraded stations and level crossings, and ...
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    4 days ago
  • Defence Climate Change Implementation Plan released
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark and Minister for Climate Change James Shaw have announced the release of a Defence Climate Change Implementation Work Plan, titled Responding to the Climate Crisis: An Implementation Plan.  The plan sets out a series of recommendations based on the 2018 New Zealand Defence Assessment, The ...
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    4 days ago
  • Govt releases funding to support South Canterbury
    A medium-scale adverse event has been declared for the South Canterbury district, which will see up to $50,000 in funding made available to support farming communities which have been significantly affected by recent heavy rain and flooding in the area, says Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. “Two weeks of solid rain ...
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    4 days ago
  • Speech at launch of Rethinking Plastics Report
    Thank you Professor Juliet Gerrard and your team for the comprehensive and extremely helpful report and recommendations. Thank you too to all the stakeholders and interested parties who have contributed ideas and thinking to it. “Making best practice, standard practice” is a great framework for change and the action plan ...
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    5 days ago
  • Govt pledges next steps on plastic waste
    The Government will phase out more single-use plastics following the success of its single-use plastic bag ban earlier this year and the release today of a pivotal report for dealing with waste. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has welcomed the Rethinking Plastics in Aotearoa New Zealandreport, released by her Chief Science Advisor ...
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    5 days ago
  • International student enrolments grow in universities and the regions
    International education continues to thrive as the Government focuses on quality over quantity, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. The tuition revenue from international education increased to $1.16 billion last year with the average tuition fee per student increasing by $960. The total number of international students enrolled in New Zealand ...
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    5 days ago
  • Speech to Government Economics Network 2019 Conference
    I want to talk about one of the most pressing issues in our national life: the housing crisis and the poor performance of our cities. The argument I want to make to you is that generations of urban land use policy have lacked a decent grounding in economics. The consequences ...
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    5 days ago
  • DHB leadership renewed and strengthened
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says new appointments to DHBs represent a significant changing of the guard, with 13 new chairs including four Māori chairs. Today 76 appointments have been announced to complement elected board members, as well as eight elected members appointed as either chair or deputy chair.  Four ...
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    6 days ago
  • Tabuteau to advance New Zealand’s trade and political interests with European partners
    Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Fletcher Tabuteau, is travelling to Germany, Poland, Austria, and Spain next week to bolster New Zealand’s political and trade relationships in Europe. While in Spain, Mr Tabuteau will represent New Zealand at the 14th Asia-Europe (ASEM) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Madrid. “New Zealand strongly supports ...
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    6 days ago
  • Statement from the Prime Minister on Kris Faafoi
    “I’ve spoken to Minister Faafoi, who has apologised for his poor handling of this issue,” Jacinda Ardern said. “I have confidence in Kris as a hardworking and effective Minister, but this should have been dealt with in a much clearer manner, and I’ve made my views on that very clear ...
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    6 days ago
  • Tonga-New Zealand Joint Ministerial Forum
    Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters met with Tongan Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pohiva Tu'i'onetoa in Wellington today. The pair signed a Statement of Partnership setting out joint priorities for cooperation out to 2023.  “We welcomed Prime Minister Tu'i'onetoa on his first visit to New Zealand as Prime Minister. Tonga ...
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    7 days ago
  • Shooting in Kurow
    The Minister of Police Stuart Nash says his sympathies are with the family of a man who died after being shot by Police in Kurow. “Initial reports are that Police were called by a family member to help the man who was threatening to harm himself,” Mr Nash says. “However ...
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    7 days ago