Budget castles in the air

24 comments on “Budget castles in the air ”

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1. pollywog 1

   17 May 2011 at 9:17 am

   John Key is full of shit !!!
   • happynz 1.1

     17 May 2011 at 9:24 am

     He certainly is! The National government’s past performances suggest that the rosy projections trotted out can’t be taken seriously.
     • Armchair Critic 1.1.1

       17 May 2011 at 9:41 am

       Now all NZ needs to one journalist to call Key and English out on their previous projections and how well they’ve turned out.
       • Roger 1.1.1.1

         17 May 2011 at 11:27 am

         Sadly John Key and his cabinet members are less likely to accept invitations to go on Morning Report so only patsy interviews from here on in. Even John Armstrong noticed this. Sadly his answer as to why stops being accurate after he says “National believes it has nothing to gain”.

         http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10726090
2. PeteG 2

   17 May 2011 at 10:10 am

   So just remember, when we hear tidings of good news and a return to surplus, that it is all based on growth which is at best hypothetical.

   Yep, all forecasts are hypothetical but we still need to have them. Maybe they should predict more recession and things will come right.

   The tax cuts were supposed to cause growth

   Yes, hypothetically – but we don’t know if they averted further recession, things (hypothetically) could be much worse (or better) without them. Policy implementation is all poke and hope, that’s simple reality.

   If poor people are struggling so much now has WFF been a costly failure?
   • Lanthanide 2.1

     17 May 2011 at 10:24 am

     “Yep, all forecasts are hypothetical but we still need to have them. Maybe they should predict more recession and things will come right.”
      
     Or maybe they should look at their past performance, ask “why were we so far off last time?”, investigate and understand the problem and then use that to make future forecasts.
      
     You know, like any (sensible) private business would do if they had 3 years of poor sales figures.
      
     There’s absolutely no evidence that they’ve done this.

     “If poor people are struggling so much now has WFF been a costly failure?”

     No, because clearly WFF kicked in many years ago. Lets try and imagine, hypothetically, what the last 8 years would have been like without WFF, shall we? Better, or worse, for “poor people”? Let’s take an educated guess and say “worse”.
   • Anthony 2.2

     17 May 2011 at 10:37 am

     Oh god, all this again… It’s the stock standard of the right when confronted with real world evidence that the economic model they subscribe to doesn’t work.

     “It did work, things would have been worse without tax cuts!”
     “It did work, things would have been worse without _ _ _ _ _!”

     *this comment contains adjustment for macroeconomic effects
     • terryg 2.2.1

       17 May 2011 at 1:09 pm

       and this is why economics is NOT SCIENCE.
   • onsos 2.3

     18 May 2011 at 11:01 am

     The Treasury has not just been consistently wrong in its predictions for the National government, it was consistently wrong for Labour, too. The difference is that it consistently underestimated economic and job growth, then, which is quite the opposite of now. Why the persistent pro-National bias?
     My working theory is that Treasury consistently over-estimates the impact of tax rate changes–particularly high income and corporate tax rate changes–and under-estimates the stimulatory impact of government expenditure.
     This would be in keeping with its general adherence to dubious supply-side understandings of economics. There should be a proper investigation of this; Treasury is unduly influential, and does not appear to understand its core discipline.
     • Colonial Viper 2.3.1

       18 May 2011 at 11:12 am

       Treasury is staffed with neo-liberal economic *****’s who still believe that people are all economically rational actors and that free market forces always act to reach a competitive and economic equilibrium. Treasury should be broken up and sold.

       Problem is, its not worth anything to the country, or to any perspective buyer. More likely, it would be valued as a liability.
3. Lanthanide 3

   17 May 2011 at 10:22 am

   Whenever John Key is confronted with someone saying that tax cuts haven’t covered the GST increase, he just says “We don’t agree with that”.
    
   Ignoring the use of the Royal We, what Key is effectively doing is saying “we have this piece of paper on it that has the maths all worked out. You are mathematically better off after the tax switch. It doesn’t matter what you are actually experiencing in reality – the maths says you’re better off, so you’re better off”.
    
   The exact same reasoning is used for defending the tax cuts – the piece of paper says they’re fiscally neutral, so they are. The fact that we need “broader economic effects” to sop up the deficit, and that the term itself is completely impossible to actually measure in any meaningful way, means that they can simply say “we would be worse off now if we didn’t have the tax cuts” and the media will simply repeat it, because they can’t be bothered to actually hold them to account for anything.
    
   Expect more of the same stemming from this budget – the forecasts of huge growth will be his defence against any negative attacks in the future.
4. Afewknowthetruth 4

   17 May 2011 at 10:39 am

   Since all Treasury forecasts are fantasies made on the basis of fraudulent and delusional economic theory, which ignores all real world factors, we can never regard them as anything other than a sick joke being played on society.

   The worldwide economic and social implosion, due to overpopulation, overconsumption, peak oil, resource depletion, environmental degradation etc. will continue whatever the clowns and criminals in government say or do.
5. ak 5

   17 May 2011 at 10:44 am

   Well fair enough, the “aggresive recovery in 2010” didn’t quite pan out for our financial wizard, so back to basics:

   Last time it was Helenhate and the promise of over $50 a week.

   But this time Helen’s gone and the country’s broke.

   So it’s promise a 5% wage increase, and Maori-bash via a bedmate.

   Divide and promise, and flood it through the airwaves. The tried-and-true Key to success.
   • Pascal's bookie 5.1

     17 May 2011 at 11:00 am

     And that 5% increase in wages and salaries will be factored into income tax projections and through that to the forecast deficit number. When salaries don’t meet the hope, a slashing we will go. ‘Not our choice mate! Hoocoodanode?’
     • Armchair Critic 5.1.1

       17 May 2011 at 11:04 am

       Maybe National could put their money where their prediction is and legislate for a compulsory 5% pay rise for everyone. If it’s gonna happen anyway there won’t be a problem.
6. randal 6

   17 May 2011 at 12:25 pm

   National is supposed to be the party of business so where is the new business?
   • Draco T Bastard 6.1

     17 May 2011 at 1:20 pm

     They haven’t been the “party of business” for a long time. What they are now is the Party of the rich with an over developed sense of entitlement (otherwise known as psychopaths).
     • PeteG 6.1.1

       17 May 2011 at 1:41 pm

       Same as Labour haven’t been the “party of workers” for a long time? What they are now is the
       Party of the beneficiaries with an over developed sense of entitlement?
       • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1

         17 May 2011 at 1:58 pm

         What they are now is the
         Party of the beneficiaries with an over developed sense of entitlement?

         There are hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders young and old living in poverty, living in the cold, houses destroyed and their workplaces wrecked, feeding themselves on food banks and cat food, and you think that they are choosing this way of living in this rich country because of a sense of entitlement and a lifestyle choice?

         Fuck off.
         • terryg 6.1.1.1.1

           17 May 2011 at 3:24 pm

           but CV, at least a few hundred of these will be scumbags, criminals or whatever. therefore its OK to stomp on the other several hundred thousand.

           In much the same way as police reporting on drink drive blitzes and how “the message is not getting through”. Every time they do a big blitz, I do a simple calculation (no.booked/no.stopped) and it shows that > 99% of kiwis are obeying the rules.

           Mondays Herald article marks the FIRST TIME I have seen a “journalist” do that calculation. And of course Blue Power dont let that interfere with their narrative.
       • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.2

         17 May 2011 at 2:04 pm

         Wow, you bought the bene bashing line from the psychopaths National as well.
       • Zaphod Beeblebrox 6.1.1.3

         17 May 2011 at 4:19 pm

         What, pensioners?? Or are you talking about people with disabilities?? Or just those who have shares in Finance Companies or AMI policies?
       • Kevin Welsh 6.1.1.4

         17 May 2011 at 4:59 pm

         Or the tens of thousands who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own.

         Still pretending to sit on that fence PeteG?
       • KJT 6.1.1.5

         17 May 2011 at 5:25 pm

         No. That is the National party.

         Some of the biggest beneficiaries. Hotchin, Watson, Kerr, Key, Brash, big SCF insider traders, private broadcasters, grossly wealthy, farmers, offshore corporates, executives, and soon the people who will be gifted our assets at fire sale prices.

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