Daily review 12/05/2022

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1. Poission 1

   12 May 2022 at 6:28 pm

   Reverse wealth effect appearing in real estate sales volumes as RBNZ measures to curb Animal spirits underway.

   House sales nationwide tumbled by 29.3% between March and April alone, highlighting the ongoing slowdown of the market, the Real Estate Institute says.

   The institute’s latest figures showed there were just 4860 sales around the country in April. That was down 35.2% from the 7497 sales at the same time last year.

   On an annual basis, sales fell by over 10% in every region, but Marlborough had the biggest decline with 53.6%. In Auckland and Wellington they were down by 41.3% and 34.6% respectively.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/128613580/power-shifts-from-sellers-as-housing-market-changes-pace

   The reverse wealth effect is an inverse to the Gecko index,where fear is good.
   • Belladonna 1.1

     12 May 2022 at 6:46 pm

     I don't know that you can see Reverse wealth effect from the asset sales data.

     If the market is dropping, then you only sell if you absolutely need to – (or you've got a very quick sell/buy lined up) hence the decline in sales volumes.

     You'd need to see that home owners – have reduced their discretionary expenditure in other areas, to see a Reverse wealth effect in operation.

     Not to say I don't think it's operating – and, at this stage it will be purely psychological for the vast majority of home-owners – since you'd need to see a drop of around 30% in house prices to take them back to 2021 levels.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127364663/looking-back-on-the-property-market-in-2021
     • Poission 1.1.1

       12 May 2022 at 7:15 pm

       When asset prices are appreciating the wealth effect leads to errors (such as leverage) when the asset may have increased by bubble not fundamentals .Housing is overvalued by around 20% due to unsustainable interest rates.When interest rates depreciated they went looking for a higher paying home such as property or sensitive new age stocks (meme shares) crypto etc.

       The inverse wealth effect is where people are reluctant to spend on high ticket items such as durables of vehicles,and tend to replace unessential spending with debt repayment or savings.
       • Belladonna 1.1.1.1

         12 May 2022 at 7:41 pm

         The inverse wealth effect is where people are reluctant to spend on high ticket items such as durables of vehicles,and tend to replace unessential spending with debt repayment or savings.

         Yes, I understand this. However, you can't infer that it's happening purely from a drop in sales volume. You need other evidence – that people are not spending on high-price items.

         The one that I've seen is sales of utes dropping – but I don't think this is a good measure here – since everyone who had the slightest possibility of wanting one – bought it last year, before the tax went on.
         • Poission 1.1.1.1.1

           12 May 2022 at 7:59 pm

           The tax incentive/disincentive on vehicles likely distorted the data,the april figures are next week (and trade vehicles would be in the financial year) March gst receipts were down.

           In the US inflation has disappeared from Durables as supply exceeds demand,and inflation is higher in used cars then new (suggesting price substitution)
2. Belladonna 2

   12 May 2022 at 6:33 pm

   A lot to digest in the announced immigration policy.

   But I'm particularly pleased to see the guaranteed path to residency for students studying low level qualifications vanish.

   Most notably, the placing of some limitations on the eligibility for post-study work visas of some students studying at Level 7 and below (excluding bachelor’s degrees), changes to the length of some post-study work visas and the raising of the funding that all prospective international student visa applicants will need to show before studying in New Zealand.

   https://www.education.govt.nz/news/changes-to-immigration-settings-for-future-international-students/

   This was a long-standing rort, and resulted in much corruption in the sector. Students 'studying' at low-level English courses, with teachers forced to pass them, regardless of ability – to retain the $20K+ fees. Students mostly working full-time-plus in dodgy and illegal enterprises – being exploited by exceedingly dodgy employers.

   It was explicitly sold overseas, by the school representatives and the middlemen in the country of origin, as a way into NZ residency.

   There's nothing to regret in this being shut down.
   • Belladonna 2.1

     12 May 2022 at 6:37 pm

     Here's the actual government advisory

     For, students undertaking a qualification at Level 7 and below (excluding bachelor’s degrees), they will only be eligible for post- study work rights if the qualification is relevant to an occupation on the Green List. This includes Graduate Diplomas and Diplomas at level 7.

     Post study work rights for non-degree students who have studied for Green List relevant qualifications will only allow the migrant to work in that occupation, though they can switch employers and work for less than the median wage.

     https://www.immigration.govt.nz/documents/media/immigration-rebalance-international-education.pdf
   • Visubversa 2.2

     12 May 2022 at 7:32 pm

     Absolutely, I saw a lot of dodgy dealing – Person A gets Residency by investment – in a couple of $2 shops. Various nephews come here and get low grade business qualifications and then get employment "managing" the $2 Shops. While they are doing the time to residency – more nephews and other relatives are also doing the cheap business qualifications and are ready to move into "management".
     • Craig H 2.2.1

       13 May 2022 at 9:50 am

       Always a frustration with these schemes. In theory there are immigration instructions for that scenario, but it's not terribly hard for friends to hire each other's family to avoid them.
3. weka 3

   12 May 2022 at 6:47 pm

   Not sure there is anything else to add to this, other than to point out that genderists have argued both that men won’t take advantage of self ID or that it doesn’t matter if they do.

   https://twitter.com/eilisohanion/status/1524391627392958467

   Thank fuck te Guardian had the sense to report straight up that Fenton is male. How very transphobic of them though.
   • Anker 3.1

     12 May 2022 at 7:29 pm

     The picture says it all. I hope he doesn't go to a women's prison. What an outrage that would be.
     • Visubversa 3.1.1

       12 May 2022 at 7:35 pm

       He probably would in California. The saying is that in America the right will make you have the rapist's baby while the left would have put the rapist in your cell in the women's prison.

       And Ireland has “Barbie Kardashian” in Limerick women’s prison. He tried to tear the eyelids off a female caregiver.
4. joe90 4

   12 May 2022 at 6:52 pm

   Fools and their money etc etc but fuck, this is sad.

   https://twitter.com/JohnBrownlow/status/1524383019582246912

   In the last 24 hours, roughly $10 billion have been drained from LUNA. Its price has fallen 93% in that time from $32 to $2.25 per coin, with the price changing rapidly each minute. After skidding to a low of 30 cents per coin, UST has ratcheted up more than a quarter to 64 cents.

   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-luna-ust-stablecoin-171635226.html
   • Muttonbird 4.1

     12 May 2022 at 7:36 pm

     Boohoo. Had USD450K. Lost USD450K.

     Now "homeless", as in renting like half the rest of the population? How is that a problem worth suicide. Does it mean everyone who doesn't own a home should contemplate suicide?

     Get fucked.
     • joe90 4.1.1

       12 May 2022 at 9:15 pm

       Get fucked.

       I know a PI dude. Rotuman. Lovely man. He came here ten/twelve years ago as a student. Graduated with an IT degree and has a secure, well paid systems admin job. He's bright, well educated, but despite all the warnings, he went hook, line and sinker for the Musk/Techbro bitcoin claptrap. Both stupid and desperate and I reckon he's done his dough.

       But he doesn't deserve the opprobrium and family shaming coming his way.
5. SPC 5

   12 May 2022 at 8:29 pm

   From the US news – gun deaths up, death by drug overdose up, and its hard to get child formula (supply problems).

   Competing narratives

   

   

   https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1524565028980076548?cxt=HBwWiMC51Z_0q6gqAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email
6. joe90 6

   12 May 2022 at 9:24 pm

   Remember the vast RWC.

   https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1524420357444325378
   • Peter 6.1

     12 May 2022 at 9:57 pm

     I don't know if all of the 'general public' I saw addressing school boards about CRT and books in libraries and vaccinations and masks were grifters and con artists.

     I thought they were just dumb bastards.
7. weka 7

   12 May 2022 at 9:59 pm

   If you think women aren’t losing rights, you’re wrong. Women started Rape Crisis centres, grass roots activism. Decades later, a woman in the UK is taking a legal case against RC to get women only services reinstated. She wants those services alongside trans women inclusive and mixed services but the RC in question thinks TW should always be included in women’s services. If you still think TW are only like Georgina Beyer (medically and surgically transitioned), then see my comment above about self ID. ‘Trans women are women’ and self ID means any man can say they are a woman and everyone has to treat them as if they are, and women who’ve been raped or sexually abused as a child have to share support groups with them, have them as counsellors.

   https://twitter.com/sarahsurviving/status/1524677989702807553
   • Sabine 7.1

     13 May 2022 at 8:55 am

     she wants ONE service that is womb-man only. ONE service, but then men are men and men are women, and non man are to shut up, suck it up and swallow. 🙂

     As i said, go underground ladies and start from scratch.
     • weka 7.1.1

       13 May 2022 at 9:48 am

       I also think we will have to start from scratch. But I’d like us to have lawyers to make sure we don’t have to fight to retain whatever we set up.
       • Sabine 7.1.1.1

         13 May 2022 at 10:01 am

         Underground, Weka, nothing public. Literally like in the good old days. Kitchen table abortions, rape counseling, and shelter providing for women in need.

         What ever rights non males thought they had, well they just got taken away by government. Thanks government. Thanks left government. Thanks to all the right wing parties that supported that shit, but at least we can now be assured that the left gives no more fucks about non males then the right does.

         A few samples from my little world:

         My frind discovered a fully exposed male in the family room of the wake pools in tauranga. 🙂 He is a woman. 🙂

         Another friends whose daughter wrote an essay on free speech in the wake of the "WOMAN – female human adult" bullshittery from the WLGTN council was reprimandet, her family cited to school, to the effect that the parents removed that 12 year old from that school.

         Her father runs a group for men, and is currently fighting off a non male who is transmasculine and who would like to be part of his group. He is taking his group underground.

         Too late. Time to do this stuff as it was done before women created all these services and organsiations. These orgs are now job centres for the rainbow lanyards. Nothing more nothing less.
   • Molly 7.2

     13 May 2022 at 10:00 am

     IIRC, they also have specific transwomen and non-binary sessions. Just none for women.

     https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10249633/Rape-victim-forced-quit-therapy-sessions-feels-threatened-6ft-trans-woman.html

     It was hearing that he was moving back into the area that persuaded her to seek help from the Brighton-based Survivors' Network.

     When Sarah first contacted the charity, she noticed that the sessions were for 'self-identifying female survivors', and in her first phone call with a member of staff was asked what her 'gender identity' was.

     However, she believed that as the charity also runs separate groups for trans and non-binary people (who identify neither as male or female), her Wednesday-night session would be most probably exclusively for biological women.

     'We do not police gender and we do not define who is and is not a woman; we allow women to define this for themselves,' she wrote.

     The letter added, in what Sarah considers a cruel snub, that her 'primary option' was to move to one-to-one support or to find another service in the city which 'may be suitable for you'.

     Sarah, who works in accountancy, took the advice and tried to find another support group solely for biological females in Brighton, but discovered there were none, as they all stated that they welcomed 'self-identifying females'.

     Sarah suggested the charity should set up a service solely for those who were born women – which is allowed under an exemption to equality legislation – but was turned down.
     • Sabine 7.2.1

       13 May 2022 at 10:26 am

       And that is by default. And signed off by government who provides the funds to these services and who should uphold their own rules and legislations – which are still valid – namely that non males have a legal right to spaces free of non males and/ or lady dicks.
       • Molly 7.2.1.1

         13 May 2022 at 10:38 am

         NHS funded, .

         They did post a tweet with a Tik-tok video of the service they provide and the welcome they offer, complete with pronouns, but have taken it down.

         It gave some insight into their position – and indicated their level of competence.

         If I find it again elsewhere, I'll post.
         • Sabine 7.2.1.1.1

           13 May 2022 at 10:48 am

           My guess is that would they provide that ONE session that this particular non male is asking for that that service would be over run and show just how much non males want and need this service to be single sex and that can not be. Right? And that can not be.

           It is the government that needs to be taken to court and forced to uphold its own legislation. Single sex servings aka Toilets, Shelters, Prisons, Rape Centres, schools, changing rooms etc etc etc.
   • SPC 7.3

     13 May 2022 at 11:12 am

     One should still note that acceptance of identification as a woman is tighter in the UK – it's not a matter of self-identifying as it is here now.
     • Molly 7.3.1

       13 May 2022 at 11:20 am

       Can you expand?

       I'm unsure of the point you are making.
       • SPC 7.3.1.1

         13 May 2022 at 12:38 pm

         Yes, I can say what the requirements are in the UK.

         And it related to this

         Weka said

         If you still think TW are only like Georgina Beyer (medically and surgically transitioned), then see my comment above about self ID

         Comment 3

         It's clear enough, one cannot just identify as a women in the UK and have it accepted.

         A person has to have lived for two years as a woman and then go through a number of hoops – assessments by medical experts, and then commit to living as a woman permanently.
         • Sabine 7.3.1.1.1

           13 May 2022 at 1:15 pm

           Non of that matters actually,

           Woman in the UK have a legal right to single sex spaces. What you are having here is someone trying to enforce a law that provides this women with a service that is denied to her. Full stop. It is the government that funds these orgs that need to step in and assure that single sex services are provided to females.

           from the daily fail

           https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10684461/Public-bodies-limit-services-single-sex-says-EHRC.html

           bbc follow up by the EHRC on their statement above

           https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60983982

           Human rights watchdog publishes single-sex spaces guide

           NZ for example:

           From the CHCH City Council the local pools have already cancelled 'woman' only swimming (free of male bodies with curtains drawn to preseve dignity and such lol lol lol ) but allows self IDing woman – aka men – to access these 'woman' only swimming hours.

           So Self ID is already law, is treated as if it is law, and a service reserved for non males only is now mixed sex. But hey, 'woman' and rights, lol….maybe they need to get a judge and have decided that they have lived for two years as a women and thus will be legally recognised as women and thus will finally have some rights to their own spaces again.

           https://ccc.govt.nz/rec-and-sport/rec-and-sport-centres/fitness/group-fitness/small-group-and-short-courses/women-swim-sessions/

           Transgender women, and people who identify as being a woman, are welcome.
           • Blazer 7.3.1.1.1.1

             13 May 2022 at 8:50 pm

             'From the CHCH City Council the local pools have already cancelled 'woman' only swimming (free of male bodies with curtains drawn to preseve dignity and such lol lol lol ) but allows self IDing woman – aka men – to access these 'woman' only swimming hours.'

             Unbelievable…what has the world come to?
         • Molly 7.3.1.1.2

           13 May 2022 at 3:22 pm

           If I understand you correctly, that's why the lawsuit is going ahead, to test the current law.

           In practice, embedded diversity groups such as Stonewall have been advising government departments, institutions and companies on how they want that law to be interpreted, which has resulted in self-id being the sole requirement for access to opposite sex spaces.
           • SPC 7.3.1.1.2.1

             13 May 2022 at 3:54 pm

             The issue over there is twofold – women only spaces (managed by councils) being replaced to allow self-ID mixing, because of pressure of the groups you mentioned – because their UK law is quite specific about the women's ID requirements.
             • weka …

               13 May 2022 at 8:02 pm

               self ID is two things: legislation, and social. Many organisations accept self-ID by what the person says, nothing to do with legislative requirements.

               My understanding of the UK situation is this:

               1. the Gender Recognition Act allows for trans people to get a Gender Recognition Certificate in the sex of their choice, but that process takes time and effort, it can't be done by a self-ID declaration.
               2. This is what Kathleen Stock calls an immersive fiction. They are allowed to be considered their nominated sex for many but not all purposes.
               3. The Equality Act prohibits discrimination in the basis of sex, but allows some exemptions where necessary and reasonable eg sport or rape crisis centres or women's changing rooms/toilets (and men's for that matter).
               4. Stonewall UK have spent a great deal of time and energy and money lying to groups, organisations and businesses, telling them that they cannot exclude trans people from single sex spaces of their chosen sex. This is not supported in law (afaik not even for people with a GRC)
               5. The single sex exemption is allowable not compulsory. So organisations can still use self-ID with or without a GRC if they choose. A great many do, sometimes out of ideology, sometimes because Stonewall lied to them.
               6. The UK government was going to allow a GRC on the basis of self-ID but changed its mind, largely thanks to gender critical feminists pointing out the problem.

               Upshot is that irrespective of the GRC law, self ID is well established and creating problems. This would get much worse if the GRC law was changed.

               Open to corrections if I've gotten any of that wrong.

               I don't really know the situation in NZ. The government did say that single sex exemptions would stand, but they also don't appear to define what sex is, so who knows. We have legal self-ID (changing sex marker on birth cert by self declaration) and social self ID (any man can say they are a woman at any time and this should be accepted as literal truth, nothing to do with a birth cert)
8. joe90 8

   12 May 2022 at 10:36 pm

   Just the thought would be enough to keep the CCP top table awake at night.

   https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-10/spy-boss-suggests-chinese-officials-leaking-to-australia/101053414

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