According to the recent stats NZ housing publication that cause the news (link to pdf), 2/3 of households own their own home. So that means most NZers would be concerned about the market sale value of their house, right? Wrong. Looking at p34, only half of individuals (>=15 years old) own (directly or via a trust) the dwelling they live in.
And I'm sure some homeowners are good people who realise the escalator needs to slow down a bit.
Curious. Is that homeowners with flatmates? Couples where only one person is listed as the owner?
I see very few homeowners saying house prices need to drop. Escalator needs to slow down a bit is a euphemism for 'my lifestyle income is more important than you having a home you can afford' (home = rented or owned).
lol I used it, and I rent, and don’t exactly have a massive “lifestyle income”.
But house prices dropped under the GFC. Big deal. Homeowners bitched for a couple of years, but shit was still in overdrive. A drop just puts them a few years behind the 8-ball, but if home ownership is a priority, then median incomes need to increase faster than house prices.
yeah, well, I wrote a post the other day asking someone to explain the 'rising incomes will solve the housing crisis' theory and no-one did. Doesn't make sense to me but then I'm mindful of how low benefits are. I just can't see how incomes will ever catch up. I can see how median incomes rising will help the middle classes be able to afford homes again, but won't they want house prices to keep increasing because it's lifestyle and retirement income not just a home?
Yeah, I just finished a fecking big project at work so if the framing or length of a post doesn't spark joy in my direction, I have very little battery power to apply to it. It's pretty simple. When incomes increase relative to the cost of housing, housing is more affordable and people are spending a lower propoertion of their income on accommodation. Whether one chooses the median, or a fraction of the median, or average wage, or all-source incomes as the benchmark measure, people can rock their world debating that.
As for property speculation, not all homeowners are looking for the highest sell price. Some actually don't want to see their wee cottage bowled for a five-house subdivision on the rural lot, or the house they just worked on be sold to an absentee speculator rather than a family. It's a culture thing, I guess.
Totally support people reading what sparks joy. Wasn't expecting you to front up with an explanation, so much as pointing out that I can't find anyone to explain it to me.
I get the general theory about income/affordability. I just don't see how it will work given the massive gap between income and house prices now, and how we will all catch up. Raising the median income obviously makes housing less unaffordable, but that's a different thing. Middle class people will be best placed to make use of it, because they're closer to affordable than others, but I can't see how people on the dole will afford rents again unless house prices drop.
Agreed about not everyone is in it for the capital gains. But culturally NZ is a country of housing = investment. Those that don't treat it such as in the minority. Even those who don't want to sell their cottage to the developers still often want some kind of return.
I don't even really blame people for that, been there myself so I know what it's like. If we spend 30 years telling people that the govt probably won't look after them in retirement, but hey if they buy a house and then another one they'll be sweet, then that's what people will do and then they will vote for govts that protect that.
Rents aren't directly linked to property prices. Rents are generally how much can be extracted from someone. Sure, decreased ownership means more people looking to rent, but there are also other issues like the decrease in state housing stock and the feedback loop that means the accommodation supplement is simply a subsidy to landlords because people don't have the same choices in housing that they used to. When people had discretion in picking flats, it was a top-up to their rent. But at the moment people have to take whatever they can get.
Kiwibuild was a sort of levelling-up idea. Most of the 100k new dwellings would have gone to the middle class, sure, but would have also hit the rental market. Additional measures like taxing ghost houses or CGT pressure were some of the reasons I was hoping the Greens would be required by Labour, not an optional nicety. But houses are like boots or anything else – poor people end up paying more because they have to take the short term solution, not the initally more expensive but cheaper over the long term option.
I'm not sure any party in parliament has the vision of a long-term beneficiary being able to buy their own home. Secure and habitable rentals, sure, but ownership isn't for everyone. It should be an option for the overwhelming majority of people at some time in their lives, though – and at the moment it's becoming an option only for a minority.
Look at the left side scale. The cumulative value is not relevant, because it includes new housing stock. But if you look at the prices, it looks to me to be a cumulatively double-digit "dip" in house prices over a brief period. So you say "dip", I say "fall", meh. Without a longer term effect all that happens is some dickheads moan that they're "under water" for 18 months. But if they don't have to default on the mortgage, it doesn't fundamentally change things for them.
They dipped…the trend remained. The cumulative value is of course relevant, it is after all that which determines bank credit and solvency.
The dip was a cumulative single digit drop of around 9% over 12 months before returning to increase followed by a single quarter drop of around 2% before an increase after a further quarter of no change.
Without significant or prolonged change there is no impact on the banking requirements and therefore no pressure on mortgagors.
There were at two datapoints of about 9% by themselves.
The point is, prices fell in some way, and it changed nothing after a year or two. I think we both agree that there's a longer term systemic change needed, rather than a short term "correction" (as economists love to call them).
Even if house prices halved overnight, in ten years the situation would still be even more fucked than it is now.
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Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the start of construction on the New Zealand Upgrade Programme’s Papakura to Drury South project on Auckland’s Southern Motorway, which will create hundreds of jobs and support Auckland’s economic recovery. The SH1 Papakura to Drury South project will give more transport choices by providing ...
CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā karanga maha o te wa, tēnā koutou, tēna koutou, tēna tātou katoa. Ki ngā mana whenua, ko Ngāi Tahu, ko Waitaha, ko Kāti Māmoe anō nei aku mihi ki a koutou. Nōku te hōnore kia haere mai ki te ...
Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the completion of upgrades to State Highway 20B which will give Aucklanders quick electric bus trips to and from the airport. The State Highway 20B Early Improvements project has added new lanes in each direction between Pukaki Creek Bridge and SH20 for buses and ...
The Government is putting in place a review of the work being done on animal welfare and safety in the greyhound racing industry, Grant Robertson announced today. “While Greyhound Racing NZ has reported some progress in implementing the recommendations of the Hansen Report, recent incidents show the industry still has ...
The infringement fee for using a mobile phone while driving will increase from $80 to $150 from 30 April 2021 to encourage safer driving, Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood said too many people are still picking up the phone while driving. “Police issued over 40,000 infringement notices ...
Pacific people in New Zealand will be better supported with new mental health and addiction services rolling out across the Auckland and Wellington regions, says Aupito William Sio. “One size does not fit all when it comes to supporting the mental wellbeing of our Pacific peoples. We need a by ...
New measures are being proposed to accelerate progress towards becoming a smokefree nation by 2025, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced. “Smoking or exposure to second-hand smoke kills around 12 people a day in New Zealand. Recent data tells us New Zealand’s smoking rates continue to decrease, but ...
More children will be able to access mental wellbeing support with the Government expansion of Mana Ake services to five new District Health Board areas, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Health Minister made the announcement while visiting Homai School in Counties Manukau alongside Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate ...
The Government’s COVID-19 response has meant a record number of people moved off a Benefit and into employment in the March Quarter, with 32,880 moving into work in the first three months of 2021. “More people moved into work last quarter than any time since the Ministry of Social Development ...
A stocktake undertaken by France and New Zealand shows significant global progress under the Christchurch Call towards its goal to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. The findings of the report released today reinforce the importance of a multi-stakeholder approach, with countries, companies and civil society working together to ...
Racing Minister Grant Robertson has announced he is appointing Elizabeth Dawson (Liz) as the Chair of the interim TAB NZ Board. Liz Dawson is an existing Board Director of the interim TAB NZ Board and Chair of the TAB NZ Board Selection Panel and will continue in her role as ...
The Government has announced that the export of livestock by sea will cease following a transition period of up to two years, said Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. “At the heart of our decision is upholding New Zealand’s reputation for high standards of animal welfare. We must stay ahead of the ...
WORKSHOP ON LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS Wednesday 14 April 2021 MINISTER FOR DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL OPENING REMARKS Good morning, I am so pleased to be able to join you for part of this workshop, which I’m confident will help us along the path to developing New Zealand’s national policy on ...
For the first time, all 18 prisons in New Zealand will be invited to participate in an inter-prison kapa haka competition, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. The 2021 Hōkai Rangi Whakataetae Kapa Haka will see groups prepare and perform kapa haka for experienced judges who visit each prison and ...
The Government has introduced the Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill, designed to boost New Zealand's ability to respond to a wider range of terrorist activities. The Bill strengthens New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm. “This is the Government’s first ...
Coal boiler replacements at a further ten schools, saving an estimated 7,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Fossil fuel boiler replacements at Southern Institute of Technology and Taranaki DHB, saving nearly 14,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Projects to achieve a total ...
Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of Cassie Nicholson as Chief Parliamentary Counsel for a term of five years. The Chief Parliamentary Counsel is the principal advisor and Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Counsel Office (PCO). She is responsible for ensuring PCO, which drafts most of New Zealand’s legislation, provides ...
Every part of Government will need to take urgent action to bring down emissions, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today in response to the recent rise in New Zealand’s greenhouse emissions. The latest annual inventory of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions shows that both gross and net ...
Asia Pacific Report newsdesk A West Papuan envoy who was gagged while addressing the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues two years ago is due to speak again today. For six years, John Anari, leader of the West Papua Liberation Organisation (WPLO) and an “ambassador” of the United Liberation ...
By Lagi Keresoma in Apia Samoa could end going back to the polls should a tie of 26/26 between the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) and the Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) party ensue. The caretaker Prime Minister, Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi, told the media yesterday of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The numbers of Australian citizens and permanent residents allowed to return from India and other COVID “high risk” countries are to be restricted. With COVID surging in India, the cases in quarantine among people arriving ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra We shouldn’t be surprised at the Kevin Rudd-Malcolm Turnbull bromance. After all, we saw the same with Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam. The stronger the earlier political antipathy, it seems, the closer the later collaboration. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Clarke, Associate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The Morrison government’s decision to scrap Victoria’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) agreement with China was based on Australia’s new Foreign Relations Act, which says the foreign minister may ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stefan Broer, Head of molecular nutrition group, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University From time to time, generally when there’s a public case of a hunger strike, people ask me how long a person can survive without food. The ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shams Rahman, Professor of Supply Chain Management, RMIT University The 2013 Dhaka garment factory collapse, killing more than 1,100 workers and injuring 2,600 more, is the clothing industry’s worst ever industrial incident. It is not just the body count, though, that made ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig Mark, Professor, Faculty of International Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University As tensions with China continue to grow, Japan is making moves to join the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance. This week, Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, told The Sydney Morning Herald he ...
In a judgement released yesterday , the Judicial Control Authority for Racing fined greyhound trainer Angela Turnwald $3,500 and disqualified them for four months in a doping case. The case was bought by the Racing Integrity Unity after the greyhound ...
The Council of Trade Unions is shocked and appalled by the behaviour of NZ Bus, owned by Next Capital, which has today issued lock-out notices to Wellington Bus drivers for an indefinite period. CTU President Richard Wagstaff said, "this ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology The recent crash of a Tesla car in the United States, in which two people died, has reignited debate about the capabilities and safety of today’s “self-driving” technologies. Tesla cars include ...
A View from Afar: In this week’s podcast Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan debate: How this week, New Zealand’s minister of foreign affairs, Nanaia Mahuta, delivered a significant speech detailing how this Labour-led Government defines its foreign policy. BACKGROUND: In short, Mahuta anchored New Zealand within the Asia Pacific region ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Douglass S Rovinsky, Associate research scientist, Monash University The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), commonly known as the Tasmanian tiger, is an Aussie icon. It was the largest historical marsupial predator and a powerful example of human-caused extinction. And despite being extinct since 1936, ...
Sexual harm using images will earn up to three years imprisonment if the proposed amendments to the Harmful Digital Communications Bill go through. The amendment would deem the individual distributor of intimate recordings without consent liable to ...
Support groups and experts in the rise of sexual abuse are rallying behind amendments to the Harmful Digital Communications Act. People have until midnight tomorrow night (April 23) to comment on the Harmful Digital Communications Act (Unauthorised Posting ...
The foreign ministers of New Zealand and Australia have faced questions on Five Eyes, China and deportees at the first face-to-face meeting since the pandemic Statecraft has trumped spectacle at a meeting of the trans-Tasman foreign ministers, with Nanaia Mahuta and Marise Payne downplaying recent conflicts between New Zealand and ...
In this week’s episode, Simon Pound talks to Dr Robert Feldman, CEO of Covid-19 Vaccine Corporation, about the fascinating science behind developing a vaccine.Since the onset of Covid-19 last year we’ve seen a huge global effort to develop vaccines. An amazingly successful effort, with new breakthroughs in technology that we’re ...
The Parole Board’s decision to grant an early release from prison for a man found guilty of a brutal and unprovoked attack is yet another example of the justice system failing at its core, says Darroch Ball co-leader of Sensible Sentencing Trust. “Emilio ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Davis, Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne After the Bank of Queensland agreed to buy ME Bank from Australia’s industry superannuation funds in February, it needed to raise A$1.35 billion quickly. The way it did it depleted the wealth ...
RNZ Pacific Papua New Guinea’s parliament has adjourned for almost four months, dashing an attempt to oust Prime Minister James Marape. The adjournment allows Marape to avoid a no confidence vote. Earlier, the opposition had tabled a motion of no confidence against Marape. The opposition listed the former prime minister ...
The Government’s inclusion of finance companies in its announced deposit insurance scheme opens the risk of Ponzi schemes receiving insurance payouts, courtesy of responsible savers, warns the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union . Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke ...
Australia Week: A poem by Sydney poet Omar Sakr.To mark the opening of the trans-Tasman bubble, The Spinoff is casting an eye across the ditch all week – read our Australia Week content here.UncoveredThe train shivers my body over the rails. Whole swathes of country become unseen. I ...
Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne has thanked New Zealand for the warm and heartfelt welcome, arriving soon after the trans-Tasman bubble opened. ...
Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne has thanked New Zealand for the warm and heartfelt welcome, arriving soon after the trans-Tasman bubble opened. ...
South Auckland leaders are cautiously optimistic the government’s new health reforms can be a ‘once-in-a-generation’ opportunity to get on top of the region’s chronic health issues.“It’s about time,” said Auckland councillor Fa’anana Efeso Collins. The outspoken South Auckland politician isn’t alone in his endorsement for the dramatic health reforms revealed by ...
In a few months’ time, Auckland Zoo’s two elephants will be travelling across the Tasman to their new homes. The decision to relocate the pair was a difficult one, but promises to give the elephants a happier and healthier long-term future. With their dexterous trunks and powerful feet, Burma and ...
Great – a statement from Damien O’Connor that won’t (or shouldn’t) frighten the horses or our allies. At least, not in terms of signalling a greater fondness for China than for friends in the democratic West. It was a trade statement: New Zealand will open a new Trade Commission ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominic O’Sullivan, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology and Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt University As part of a major overhaul of the health system, health minister Andrew Little yesterday announced a new Māori health ...
Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft has today welcomed the correction of child poverty figures by Stats NZ but reminds New Zealanders to remain focussed on what’s really going on for tamariki and rangatahi. Stats NZ today released updated poverty ...
Every stitch of Lema Shamamba’s embroidery tells a part of her story – and brings her closer to her homeland.CW: Violence, sexual assaultWhen Lema Shamamba fled the Democratic Republic of the Congo, she took just one of her three children. While the other two were at school, her youngest, Pasifique, ...
Australia Week: Calum Henderson looks back on the pinnacle of Australian television: the time a dog had a dream on Neighbours. To mark the opening of the trans-Tasman bubble, The Spinoff is casting an eye across the ditch all week – read our Australia Week content here.Can dogs dream? ...
Australia Week: Trans-Tasman commerce has always been a big deal. So we take a look at some of the New Zealand companies that have successfully expanded across the ditch and cemented their place in the hearts, and malls, of Australia.To mark the opening of the trans-Tasman bubble, The Spinoff ...
Greenpeace Aotearoa is calling on the Austrian Government to explain why OMV, a state controlled oil company, has been using the notorious Thompson & Clark spy agency to actively thwart legitimate climate protests in New Zealand. This comes ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta was probably expecting her speech this week on New Zealand’s policy towards China to be widely read, but not to have produced the savage reactions it did in some quarters. In our examination of the speech,Point of Order drew attention to how Mahuta had delivered ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage. Click here to subscribe to Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup and New Zealand Politics Daily. Today’s contentHealth reforms: Analysis Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): Labour’s health reforms: Boldly going where it might ...
Toi Tangata welcomes the announcement of the major health reform revealed by Minister Little and Minister Henare on Wednesday morning. The establishment of a Māori Health Authority is a bold and courageous move in the right direction. This new Māori Health ...
The modern Returned Services Association is proudly multiracial and multicultural, but that was far from the case in its early decades. The organisation should consider marking this Anzac Day with a recognition of past failings, writes Scott Hamilton.Every Anzac Day the Returned Services Association organises commemorations across New Zealand, at ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Brown, Senior Principal Research Fellow, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute Childhood should be a happy and carefree time, but often it doesn’t work out that way. Children are exposed to all the stresses and strains that affect the families and communities in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of Queensland Days out from a much-anticipated climate summit convened by US President Joe Biden, the federal government has moved to position itself as serious about emissions reduction. On Wednesday Prime Minister Scott ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicolas Pirsoul, Policy Analyst and Research Assistant, University of Auckland Since the fatal Havelock North campylobacter outbreak in 2016, freshwater quality has rightfully been a major political issue in Aotearoa New Zealand. Pipes bursting in Wellington, lead contamination in Otago and concerns ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Carroll, Researcher and Senior Manager, Strategic Information, Monash University Career-related motivations are among the most important factors in Australian students’ decision to undertake higher education. This means universities must demonstrate their graduates’ ability to find work when seeking to recruit students ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Prendergast, Senior Lecturer, Writing and Literature, Swinburne University of Technology Each year, The Stella Prize honours writing by women. Good. We’ve come a long way. We’ve a long way to go. The 2021 shortlist encompasses contemporary fiction, historical fiction, and non-fiction, ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s live updates for April 22, bringing you the latest news updated throughout the day. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nz8.05am: ‘Unexpected’ Covid-19 fragments found in Melbourne wastewaterMelbourne is on high alert after “unexpected” Covid-19 fragments were found in wastewater.Samples taken from sewer catchments in the suburbs of ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Latest round of consumer price index stats come out, sweeping health system reforms announced, and Wellington Council still weirdly tense.Sorry for leading off with such naked clickbait today, but we’re talking about inflation stats. The famously dry figures generally pass without ...
Retail workers across the country who are currently bargaining for new Collective Agreements with their employers will be looking to the example of Kmart, who are the first major retailer to negotiate new one-year CA for 2021-22 that includes the ...
The Vaccine rollout is under threat as the legality of the vaccine approval and many of the Governments claims are being challenged in the High Court. The plaintiff claims that the people of New Zealand are not being given honest and complete information ...
George Henderson on a revolutionary study of the link between nutrition and mental health Tl;dr – the blurb says The Better Brain: How nutrition will help you overcome anxiety, depression, ADHD and stress by Julia Rucklidge, a professor of clinical psychology at the University of Canterbury, and University of Calgary ...
After facing flak from partners, the Government has finally responded to an independent report on Covid-19 which ran into alleged roadblocks in China New Zealand has raised belated concerns about a controversial World Health Organisation report into the origins of Covid-19, saying it shares “regrets” about limited access to early ...
There’s been an effective and inexpensive drug treatment for decades - so why are the lives of so many Māori and Pasifika hampered by gout? Matthew Scott investigates how our healthcare system is leaving some people behind. It’s bad today. He can’t use his hands. Not to drive, not ...
An Australian property company founded by Kiwis aims to become truly Australasian following its local acquisition, Mark Jennings reports. This story is written in partnership with Centuria. Fresh out of Auckland University, 21 year old Jason Huljich headed to Australia and got a job with another expat Kiwi trying to ...
Analysis: Experts have endorsed the new approach to public health but say the scale of funding and the agency's resilience to food and tobacco lobbyists will be key, Marc Daalder reports For years, public health experts have unified around a single concept: New Zealand needs a centralised public health body. "All ...
Dr Peter Davis takes a look at the newly-announced health reforms and how they might affect different sectors of our society There is everything to play for in the announcement of the long-awaited health reform package by the Minister of Health, Andrew Little. The announced structural outline is best seen as ...
Kiwi Fern Christyl Stowers has faced some tough times - from depression to crippling arthritis. Now she's part of a bold initiative with her league club giving women tools for on and off the field. Sport saved Christyl Stowers' life. When she needed to escape periods of her childhood, the now ...
Yesterday’s announcement of a new Māori health authority might be a step in the right direction for tino rangatiratanga, but we’ve been promised systemic change before. Before we celebrate, let’s run a critical eye over the proposals, writes health policy expert Gabrielle Baker.For the last three years I’ve been having ...
Columnist Peter Dunne says Labour talked a big game on drug reform when it took office in 2017, but in many areas things have got worse, not better. ...
Nearly two weeks after voting, Samoans still don't know if their leader of 22 years will be ousted by his former deputy Cliff-hanger, seismic shift, historic, unprecedented. There's a lot of hyperbole surrounding the drama-filled Samoan election. It is seismic, says Dr Damon Salesa, the University of Auckland's pro vice-chancellor ...
The Government is accused of putting a 'band-aid' on an issue impacting thousands of migrants by inviting the families of high-skilled, high income contractor and employees to apply first. Officials estimate 450 partners and children will be first in line for family reunification – amid criticism the government is giving preferential treatment to high-income overseas ...
With so little detail on what the Māori Health Authority will look like, it’s difficult to know whether those most in need of medical care will be the ones feeling the change. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Morrison government has cancelled the belt and road agreements Victoria has with China. In the first decisions under the government’s new foreign arrangements scheme allowing it to quash arrangements states, territories and public universities ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Scott Morrison says he hopes to focus the conversation at this week’s Biden climate summit on the question of how to achieve net-zero emissions, declaring there has been enough conversation about the timing. Ahead of ...
'the detail' on rnz today is a must-listen…
it's on housing/poverty..
Been thinking about home ownership.
According to the recent stats NZ housing publication that cause the news (link to pdf), 2/3 of households own their own home. So that means most NZers would be concerned about the market sale value of their house, right? Wrong. Looking at p34, only half of individuals (>=15 years old) own (directly or via a trust) the dwelling they live in.
And I'm sure some homeowners are good people who realise the escalator needs to slow down a bit.
Curious. Is that homeowners with flatmates? Couples where only one person is listed as the owner?
I see very few homeowners saying house prices need to drop. Escalator needs to slow down a bit is a euphemism for 'my lifestyle income is more important than you having a home you can afford' (home = rented or owned).
lol I used it, and I rent, and don’t exactly have a massive “lifestyle income”.
But house prices dropped under the GFC. Big deal. Homeowners bitched for a couple of years, but shit was still in overdrive. A drop just puts them a few years behind the 8-ball, but if home ownership is a priority, then median incomes need to increase faster than house prices.
yeah, well, I wrote a post the other day asking someone to explain the 'rising incomes will solve the housing crisis' theory and no-one did. Doesn't make sense to me but then I'm mindful of how low benefits are. I just can't see how incomes will ever catch up. I can see how median incomes rising will help the middle classes be able to afford homes again, but won't they want house prices to keep increasing because it's lifestyle and retirement income not just a home?
Yeah, I just finished a fecking big project at work so if the framing or length of a post doesn't spark joy in my direction, I have very little battery power to apply to it. It's pretty simple. When incomes increase relative to the cost of housing, housing is more affordable and people are spending a lower propoertion of their income on accommodation. Whether one chooses the median, or a fraction of the median, or average wage, or all-source incomes as the benchmark measure, people can rock their world debating that.
As for property speculation, not all homeowners are looking for the highest sell price. Some actually don't want to see their wee cottage bowled for a five-house subdivision on the rural lot, or the house they just worked on be sold to an absentee speculator rather than a family. It's a culture thing, I guess.
Totally support people reading what sparks joy. Wasn't expecting you to front up with an explanation, so much as pointing out that I can't find anyone to explain it to me.
I get the general theory about income/affordability. I just don't see how it will work given the massive gap between income and house prices now, and how we will all catch up. Raising the median income obviously makes housing less unaffordable, but that's a different thing. Middle class people will be best placed to make use of it, because they're closer to affordable than others, but I can't see how people on the dole will afford rents again unless house prices drop.
Agreed about not everyone is in it for the capital gains. But culturally NZ is a country of housing = investment. Those that don't treat it such as in the minority. Even those who don't want to sell their cottage to the developers still often want some kind of return.
I don't even really blame people for that, been there myself so I know what it's like. If we spend 30 years telling people that the govt probably won't look after them in retirement, but hey if they buy a house and then another one they'll be sweet, then that's what people will do and then they will vote for govts that protect that.
Rents aren't directly linked to property prices. Rents are generally how much can be extracted from someone. Sure, decreased ownership means more people looking to rent, but there are also other issues like the decrease in state housing stock and the feedback loop that means the accommodation supplement is simply a subsidy to landlords because people don't have the same choices in housing that they used to. When people had discretion in picking flats, it was a top-up to their rent. But at the moment people have to take whatever they can get.
Kiwibuild was a sort of levelling-up idea. Most of the 100k new dwellings would have gone to the middle class, sure, but would have also hit the rental market. Additional measures like taxing ghost houses or CGT pressure were some of the reasons I was hoping the Greens would be required by Labour, not an optional nicety. But houses are like boots or anything else – poor people end up paying more because they have to take the short term solution, not the initally more expensive but cheaper over the long term option.
I'm not sure any party in parliament has the vision of a long-term beneficiary being able to buy their own home. Secure and habitable rentals, sure, but ownership isn't for everyone. It should be an option for the overwhelming majority of people at some time in their lives, though – and at the moment it's becoming an option only for a minority.
"But house prices dropped under the GFC."
Not really, they dipped for a very short period…we didnt have the real property deflation suffered by some other markets…the trend continued.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-house-price-values
Remember that we are looking at aggregate effect.
After how many consecutive quarters of falls in house prices does a "dip" become a "drop"?
look at the graph in the link
Look at the left side scale. The cumulative value is not relevant, because it includes new housing stock. But if you look at the prices, it looks to me to be a cumulatively double-digit "dip" in house prices over a brief period. So you say "dip", I say "fall", meh. Without a longer term effect all that happens is some dickheads moan that they're "under water" for 18 months. But if they don't have to default on the mortgage, it doesn't fundamentally change things for them.
They dipped…the trend remained. The cumulative value is of course relevant, it is after all that which determines bank credit and solvency.
The dip was a cumulative single digit drop of around 9% over 12 months before returning to increase followed by a single quarter drop of around 2% before an increase after a further quarter of no change.
Without significant or prolonged change there is no impact on the banking requirements and therefore no pressure on mortgagors.
There were at two datapoints of about 9% by themselves.
The point is, prices fell in some way, and it changed nothing after a year or two. I think we both agree that there's a longer term systemic change needed, rather than a short term "correction" (as economists love to call them).
Even if house prices halved overnight, in ten years the situation would still be even more fucked than it is now.