You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
There's not.
There are a range of circumstances where a range of greater restrictions might apply in a range of areas, from a small locality to nationwide. We are already facing many restrictions.
As the circumstances change we might face more restrictions, and as time progresses we might face fewer restrictions (e.g. good drug treatment becomes evident, or a vaccine, or maybe the disease profile changes because less debilitating strains become dominant).
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
we are pretty much fucked then.
The trigger will be when we double our cases of ill every four days as it happens pretty much elsewhere and our hospitals are overwhelmed and without safety equipment as they are int he States, England, France, Italy and when we have people dying.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
California just shut down. NY is gonna be a basket case, Africa is gearing up to be very interesting. And we took way to long to even acknowledge that this thing could come here and wreck havoc and now are simply in mitigation mode. Containment is not possible anymore.
Several people today telling me about their family members in lock down. Those that have sleep outs are somewhat ok, those that are locked up with potentially ill people now have a great chance of falling ill themselves.
So I don't know. It's not a time-elapsed thing, it's a milestone that can happen at any time.
What I do know is that anyone who wants to survive 2020 might think of moderating their stress levels, because a popped subdural artery will kill you deader than a virus you have a good chance of not catching, even under the most pessimistic projections.
I'm not religious, but the Serenity Prayer has the right vibe. I just look for it in myself, rather than asking God for it.
mate, i am gonna go to hell in all the religions and i don't mind.
The reason we don't have '4000 odd cases' is that we don't test enough, and as per people those that call to get tested get an answer machine.
So that is a bit like the US today, this morning 9000 cases, this arvo 16.000 and California under shutdown.
As for moderating stress levels, well the government could help with that but so far they have done fuck all.
They could legalise weed by emergency degree, now that would help people to 'de-stress', (and yeah, no gummi bears, that would be too naughty and we can't have naughty), but thats not gonna happen.
They could ask the IRD to send money to people to stay at home,
but ….air planes or people….decision decisions…….
and we only have so much money, so planes it is.
But the booze lobby is wetting themselves, as are the banks, the supermarkets, and the gangs that sell the unregulated and untaxed drugs, and so on and so forth.
So don't worry McFlock, a few deserving people will survive and even get much richer, and no, never would i blame the government for not regulating and such, i shall blame capitalism as advised earlier.
If we have 4,000 cases, why don't we have all our ICU beds full of people with pneumonia etc that nobody has thought to check as being covid-19?
Or do we actually have 4,000 cases, but the strain with community release is more mild that what the rest of the world seems to be experiencing? In which case… actually, would that make us immune to the more lethal strains, too? Cowpx/smallpox style?
Well because as they say, not everyone will show symptoms, not everyone will get ill. That is my guess, and i would also assume that people stay home when they get ill initially and many will get better within a few days and not think twice about the funny bug they cought.
But a wee story from today. My partner usually always has a security guard with him when he goes to fix broken bank machines. That security guard has a girl live in the house who has a dry cough and high fever. So when he told this he was advised to call the Hotline number and see if she could get tested. Now she was not overseas etc etc and was told to do nothing. Stay home, isolate, oh, and her GP then told her to go and get a blood tests at the local labto make sure her blood issues don't act up. She takes a blood thinner. Now think of that. Isolate, but please go to the local clinic for a blood test. Stupidity and idiocy are us it seems.
I have a few friends in the states, many of whom had really weird 'flu' this winter. They are now wondering if they had the virus, and chances are they did, but it did not get tested, they got better blahblahblah.
So essentially we could already have many people carrying the virus, spreading it unwittingly by going to work, to shop, to live life.
And this is why i am so pissed at the government, they should know that, and they should give all of us that would like to go home and stay home the option and the financial security to do so. If you need to raise a 'solidarity tax" (done in Germany after the fall of the wall to pay for it all) then so be it. After all China did show us how it needs to be done.
But the best way to stop this thing in its tracks is shut down, for up to 8 -12 weeks – and again the earlier the better – and tell people to stay home.
Hence why i wanted a rent/mortgage/lease freeze, because at the end of the day, the thing that we don't want is sick people wandering the streets because they have been evicted, and half of our economy in the tank because all of our small businesses have to exhaust all other means before they apply to the on the dole – a potential 375.000 new beneficiaries.
they should have told us to go home, set up an ap, or web page to apply for your IRD payment and stay the fuck at home.
Shutting the country down for three months over a disease that apparently has a hospitalisation rate of less than 1 in 4,000 (because we have this hoard of hidden cases that aren't going to hospital) seems excessive.
If we left it to cover 60% of the population over a few months, we could probably manage it relatively reasily, something like 500 patients in that timeframe?
BUT:
If it's got a 20% serious complication rate and the government has actually done very well at keeping the wolf from the door, good on the government.
Besides, if we just shut down, citizens might still come back from overseas after the shutdown. Or it jumps ship. Or gets in some other way. And we're back to where we are now.
so unless we prove otherwise the most dire scenario is 3 month, the best case 4 weeks. Our saving grace is that we are at the bottom of the world, a small population and other then a few centres are not densly populated. . Disclaimer: I am german and thus always inclined to operate from the worst scenario cause if it is better then its a bonus.
I also would expect the virus to 'come ' back every now and then until we find a vaccine that works, or medication that works.
I personally would just like to know what about this virus it is that has our selected overlords of the planet so shit scared that they happily lock up people into their homes and crash the worlds economy while at it. (mind some republican had fun dumping stocks and making money…..so what do i kno 🙂 )
Ideally, we keep anyone out of the hospital that does not really need it, home care.
Japan basically told its people to go home, if you have a cough and fever stay home, only go to the hospital if you have a fever over 39.5 degree (101 f) for two days.
Even pull a Bojo, and let it run its course – controlled if we could. But i am not the one shutting down countries, closing borders, crashing the economy. I am just someone who is pissed that easter ain't gonna happen ( and as a chocolatier easter is the best! so much fun) i am pissed that my friends are scared of loosing the businesses that they have spend years building up, and i am pissed at this government not doing anything other tehn bailing our an airline who should have been left to die many years ago.
so my CT is simple as , they underfunded the health care sector so much that they actually can't deal with a really bad flu. They don't have the equipment, the masks, the gloves, the suits, etc etc etc and they are worried that if we all get ill at once and need health care we are gonna bankrupt what little health services we have.
What scares them isn't that it's a really bad flu.
What scares them is that it's worse than that.
You want to crash an economy? Constantly maintain 15,000 negative-pressure rooms that will be obsolete by the time they are used once in a hundred years. And do that for every possible, conceivable disaster. People complained enough about EQC levy, let alone volcano/pandemic/asteroid/hurricane levies on top of that.
@ McFlok : What scares them is that it's worse than that.
this is my guess, and then they should come clean.
people may complain, they do that all the time 🙂 , but at the end of the day we need to finally understand and accept that we have the infrastructure that we pay for. So if we don't want to pay for hospitals, and equipment such as standard hazmat suits, masks etc, then we should not expect care to be given by nurses and doctors.
And maybe just maybe our government will grow some guts – no guts no glory as they say – and implement that wealth tax, that capital gains tax, because at the end of it, that is what they should do. And fuck it that maybe people don't like them. As it is now, they are alienating anyone who is not a beneficiaries (and even there i wold not hold my breath) or a CEO of a bankrupt air company.
The govt has been upfront about the threat, and so has damned near everyone else. We all know the basic math if left unchecked: 60-odd% infection, ~1% case fatality rate, in the first wave. 25,000 NZers dead.
We also know the problem if the country is under heavy restriction, nobody in the streets, nobody at work, for three months. Millions of NZers without food or power over winter.
So we need to find a balance between the two, preferably staving off one while avoiding the other. That changes according to the situation, and that's why they have daily briefings.
So cgt and ubi debates, frankly, can hie themselves to a nunnery for the duration.
The problem is people making the extensive economic damage (which will kill people as badly as a pandemic) even worse by crapping their daks over the worst case scenario when there's no evidence we're any more likely to go there than get the best case scenario.
That means people inducing shortages for other people by panic-buying, when there would be enough for everyone if we all shopped normally.
US, UK, and most of Europe are well in the shit. Some of that is because they were hit early, before it was sequenced or we had tests. Some of it was because they had advisors tell them what they wanted to here, that the best thing was to do nothing. But we're an island. We have a non-porous border, and we had good notice and tests before we had our first case. We export food, and we have a sudden drop in tourists to feed. We're not going to starve. Other places might. But we will have a lot of businesses go under, especially if everyone's too terrified to go anywhere.
i am gonna survive, due to me being tinny as and loath to take up loans i am good. The biggest worry is my lease – i spend quite a bit of money on getting my premises that i leased up to standard and licensed- but if i have too i can dip into my retirement savings. My lease also expires in December so i could just simply let it expire and see if i can turn my garage into a kitchen and get it lisenced. At least then the lease i pay goes towards my mortgage.
I am pissed for the others on my block, the hair dresser, the garage, the bakery, the dairy, the take away, i am pissed for the little businesses in my town. I am pissed for the young dudes that slaved for years working for others, doing the night market to get enough money up to open their own little joint – you know just enough money for teh bills and for them so they too can have a live and a family and a place to live.
there is no ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, there is a pack of paracetamol and when it hurts to much you apply at winz for a one pill to kill some of the pain. And frankly i rather hang myself then ever give myself over to Winz.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
Could you outline the logic behind your assessment that we're going to go from a few cases known to have come in from overseas and reasonably well isolated, to our hospitals being overwhelmed, in the next week?
From what i have seen is that once the testing goes underway the number of infected people jumps high very quickly very fast.
See the US. From 1 on Jan 23, to 15 on March 3rd, to 16000 on March 20th.
At that stage you have a choice, let it run, or shut down. Shut down is needed if you don't want to kill your health system, and by killing i mean that. Doctors, Nurses etc in the US and in England and France and elsewhere do not have the equipment to keep themselves save and a few doctors in all these countries and nurses are having the virus and in NY it appears that some of them work.
So we had 28 yesterday, 39 today, 50+ tomorrow, 80+ two days, 120 odd in three days, by the time we reach Wednesday next week it could be quite a few people.
And believe me i don't want a shut down. I can't afford it.
We're seeing a big spike in people who've been infected overseas because lots of people have come back here from infected countries. Exponential growth in that would require exponential growth in numbers returning from overseas. For your growth estimates to apply, we'd first need evidence of community transmission within NZ, which is currently non-existent. That community transmission will turn up, and that's when it will get serious, but it hasn't turned up yet.
If the virus gets into the population with no links to recent overseas travel.
It would probably be introduced step by step as the need arises. Hopefully there will be no full blown lockdown as has occurred in Italy.
We can do no more than cross our fingers and follow instructions – washing hands, keeping physical distance of 2 metres (so hard to remember) and generally being sensible.
Edit: oops McFlock beat me to it and rather more colourfully. 🙂
Yes, we're all as clueless as the next person, this is a fairly unprecedented thing, if 6 months ago someone suggested we get ready and prepare for such a thing would anyone here taken it seriously? I just saw a G W Bush speech from when he was president saying such a pandemic could happen. Just calm down, our experts and leaders are just human like the rest of, trying their best, in a very strange and ever changing situation. Are we fucked? Quite possibly, or maybe like always, we will adapt, and cope. I'm a working wage earning solo father with school age kids living in South Dunedin, I just cant think of anything else to do but look after my kids and I, keep an eye on my elderly neighbours, and hope for the best.
I think the supermarkets have acted superbly actually! They could be price gouging, they could not bother with the rationing, because money, but there are still specials, the staff are excellent. My kids schools are calm and communicating with us parents, my work place has appropriate safety gear and hand sanitizer at every entry way, as do most business places.
Chatting to an Australian nurse, their leave has all been cancelled and they can't travel interstate. They're very calm, the situation changes every 4 hours, there are new guidelines for hospital staff that if they catch it once, they go on leave, as they have found overseas the more often you catch it the higher the chance of mortality. She said "info on infection control measures in health care seem to be implementing faster over there, that's def in NZs favour". Though they are getting ready for numbers to dramatically increase in the next few weeks.
yes, well if it attacks the lungs every single time at one stage the lung is done for.
so that might be what they are so scared of. It will kill us eventually.
As for the nurses? Increase their pay. If they ask where the money should come from they can tax Mike Hoskins, Gareth Morgan, and all the other tax avoiders a wealth tax. You know, to show solidarity to those that move the boat forward.
We're the same here, had loo paper on special for a week, then canned tomatoes got bought out, now they are on special. The computerised stock control must be causing the supermarkets huge grief. At least all the runs are on non-perishables, apart from bread.
Our frozen veges were sold out today, be some good deals going there in a week or so.
Something not well noted is how much of the pandemic in China was in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei. And how effective this was quarantined from the rest of China.
And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same draconian travel bans domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
The Ministry of Health has set up an email address directed to health immigration and police for those with confirmed cases and also breaches of self-isolation and mass gatherings.
Yeah, our BCP boldly states people can work from home because we have Office365, SharePoint and mostly web-based specialist apps. This week have been talking with managers living in rural idylls with "broadband" that's more like dial-up, staff who can't remember how old their home computer is but it's more than 10 years, and one guy who doesn't even own a mobile phone, let alone a computer. Most I wouldn't trust to find an application on their computer that didn't have a desktop icon, let alone download and set up Skype for Business. My official assessment is that we meet the requirements of the BCP to a significant extent, my unofficial one is that we are so, so screwed.
Air NZ will be significantly downsizing, they've asked staff to take redundancy, reduced hours, or take unpaid leave. I guesstimate 50%+ headcount reductions (from 10,000 staff to around 5K)
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It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveThe text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary. It can be quickly analysed ...
For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
Questions need to be asked on both sides of the worldPeter Williams writes – The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop:The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
TL;DR:Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
Bob Edlin writes – The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
The New Zealand public voted for a change in direction at the 2023 general election and that is exactly what this coalition government has been delivering in its first 100 days. There was an immediate focus on the economy, easing the cost of living, cracking down on law and order ...
The Government has left the health system as an afterthought, announcing half-baked targets at the last minute of their 100-day plan, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
Kiwis are still waiting for their promised cost of living support after 100 days of a National Government that is taking us backwards, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
100 days of National taking NZ backwardsThe National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
The Government must commit to funding free and healthy school lunches, as thousands of people sign the petition to keep them, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti says. ...
If the Government was serious about moving families into public housing, they would build more houses so there is actually somewhere for people to go. ...
The free and healthy school lunches programme feeds our kids, helps them to learn, and saves families money – but it is at risk under this Government, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
The Government’s proposed changes to Firearms Prohibition Orders (FPO) add almost nothing new and are merely an attempt to distract from its plans to loosen gun laws, police spokesperson Ginny Andersen and justice spokesperson Dr Duncan Webb said. ...
The great Victorian era English politician Lord Macauley stood in the British House of Parliament and said, "The gallery in which the reporters sit has become a fourth estate of the realm".He understood and outlined even way back then, the significant role and influence media have in a democracy. ...
The government’s attack on Māori health this week is committing tangata-whenua to a premature death, says Te Pāti Māori. “The government have begun their onslaught on Māori health with the abolishment of the Māori Health Authority and smokefree laws in the same day” said health spokesperson and co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. ...
"The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April. ...
Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand. Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships. “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland Acknowledgements and opening Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says. “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024 Acknowledgements and opening Morena, Nga Mihi Nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country. “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week. “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee. “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today. “The Amendment Paper represents ...
Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level. “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024. “Lower fruit and vege ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction. Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness. It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Lupton, SHARP Professor, Vitalities Lab, Centre for Social Research in Health and Social Policy Centre, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, UNSW Sydney kitzcorner/Shutterstock The assertion from Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Why are musicians so keen to get played on the radio? It can’t be because of the money. In Australia they are paid at rates so low they ...
"Farmers make a point not to tell our urban cousins how to live, yet Chlöe from central Auckland is hell-bent on having her say about farmers," says ACT Rural Communities spokesman Mark Cameron. “On her first day in the House as Green ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand Getty Images/Gerald Corsi In the latest move to reform environmental laws in New Zealand, the coalition government has introduced a bill to fast-track consenting processes for projects deemed to ...
Uber has argued it does not have as much control over drivers as the unions suggest, and wants a judgment ruling that drivers are employees and not contractors set aside and sent back to the Employment Court. The 2022 ruling followed a three-week hearing in which four drivers sought to ...
What can and can’t be purchased by disabled people or their carers has been slashed in an effort by the Ministry of Disabled People Whaikaha to save money. The purchasing guidelines, a set of rules that sets out what can be purchased using the various streams of Government disability funding, ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Tod Wright and Hien Nguyen, Fiscal incidence in New Zealand: The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in tax year 2018/19 . Analyses of the distributional impact of taxation and government ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Cory Davis, Boston Hart and Benjamin Stubbing, Household cost-of-living impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme and using transfers to mitigate regressive outcomes . This Analytical Note ...
A coalition of public transport and climate organisations, united as ‘Transport for All’, is actively opposing the government’s transport proposals. The draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) includes plans for higher fares for public transport, ...
Greater Wellington is inviting feedback on proposed changes to its Revenue and Financing Policy. The Revenue and Financing Policy covers the Council’s various sources of funding, and how the cost of services is shared across the region. This includes ...
Labour has conceded it could have done more to deal with disruptive state housing tenants while in government but says the current coalition is going too far. ...
The band has asked their record label to issue a cease and desist to stop the NZ First leader using their 1997 hit to support his ‘misguided political views’. “I get knocked down, but I get up again,” blared through the speakers on Sunday as Winston Peters took the stage ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Food rationing is underway in remote areas in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands following torrential rain and flash flooding. More than 20 people have been reported dead in Chimbu Province. In nearby Enga Province, the centre of last month’s massacre, a 15-year-old boy has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University After months of debate and intrigue, the AFL’s 19th and newest team, the Tasmania Devils, finally launched its jumper, logo and colours in Devonport this week. The Devils will wear green, ...
Brannavan Gnanalingam reviews the debut novel by Saraid de Silva.One of the most baffling things for children who move to a new country is what their parents’ (or grandparents’) lives were like prior to moving – for kids in particular, they’re too busy trying to fit in in their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University Narelle Portanier/Binge “If you don’t know who your mob are, you don’t know who you are,” Detective Andrea “Andie” Whitford (played by Leah Purcell) is told early into the new crime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Klein, Associate professor, Australian National University It’s commonly accepted that women do the vast majority of caregiving in Australian society. But less appreciated is that Indigenous women do larger amounts of unpaid care than any other group. Working with the Aboriginal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a ...
Comment: There has been a striking contrast in trans-Tasman interest about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Zealand and Australia. While the Australian press has been full of articles about the visit – including his curious decision to meet with former prime minister and China booster Paul Keating ...
After years of pressuring banks and other institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels, climate campaigners are making some progress. So how does divestment work?For years, climate activists have been pushing banks and other big institutions to divest from fossil fuels. New research from climate advocacy group 350 Aotearoa ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. The three young Polynesians are part of a K-pop fan community in Tāmaki Makaurau. It’s one of many that have sprung up worldwide as K-pop has gone ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. This one-off documentary presents three intimate portraits of young Polynesians who are pulled into a Korean cultural phenomenon. K-POLYS is directed by Litia Tuiburelevu, Produced by Hex ...
There’s ample evidence demonstrating free school lunch programmes provide wide benefits across schools, households and communities according to public health researchers. ACT Minister David Seymour wants to reduce the spending on Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
By Wata Shaw in Suva Fiji is facing an exodus of Fijians as many are leaving for overseas seeking employment and education and others are migrating, says Opposition MP Viliame Naupoto. Speaking in Parliament, he said: “His Excellency’s speech (Ratu Wiliame Katonivere) comes after a little over one year of ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming comments from Christopher Luxon this morning recommitting to ‘no new taxes’ as part of Budget 2024. “Mr Luxon’s refusal at the Post-Cabinet press conference yesterday to repeat the ‘no new taxes’ promise ...
SAFE is urgently calling on the Environment Committee to reject the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill, and is urging New Zealanders to rally behind the call. The proposed Bill, currently under consideration with the Environment select committee, ...
Teammates who spend all their time picking fights with spectators are only helpful for the other team, writes Madeleine Chapman. Anyone who has ever played a team sport competitively, particularly as a child and particularly, for some reason, basketball, will know that there’s a lot of politics involved. While there ...
The long-running Wellington music festival is too focused on the Jim Beam-ness and not enough on the Homegrown-ness.There is something about Homegrown that’s difficult to place. A barely perceptible-ness. Like feeling a ghost is watching you from the corner of the room but when you look, there’s nothing there. ...
The latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor reveals that fewer New Zealanders believe crime / law and order is one of the top issues facing our country. In 2018, Ipsos New Zealand started tracking the key issues facing New Zealand. In this wave ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, Grattan Institute Australia’s political donations rules are woefully inadequate, but donations reform is finally on the agenda. The federal government has signalled its interest in reform and will soon begin briefing MPs on its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University Naiyana Somchitkaeo/Shutterstock A recent study published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine has linked microplastics with risk to human health. The study ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University Global climate records were shattered in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a teacher explains why he and his partner are in frugal mode – and how they’re making it work. Gender: Male Age: 35Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: I am an intermediate school teacher and my partner is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Bendall, Senior Lecturer, Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University Binge Mary & George, the new British television drama series, depicts the real-life story of Mary Villiers and her son George, and their social climbing at the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series here. Australian state and federal governments spend money in many ways to ...
The finance minister is denying that there’s a $5.6b shortfall in paying for the government’s campaign promises, including tax cuts. At his post-cabinet press conference yesterday, the PM refused to rule out new taxes to pay for the cuts, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s ...
Kāinga Ora tenants abused by their neighbours are doubting the government's crackdown on disruptive tenants will make a difference on their behaviour. ...
Kāinga Ora is New Zealand’s biggest residential landlord, housing more than 180,000 vulnerable people in more than 67,000 properties. Yesterday the government announced a crackdown on its tenants who fall behind on rent. One longtime Kāinga Ora tenant shares her experience.For 18 years I lived in a 1960s standalone ...
Why does this myth persist, and what’s the real reason our skin is suffering?It’s one of the biggest international grievances New Zealanders hold, up there with the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior and 1981’s underarm incident. We’re quick to tell international travellers that the world’s pollution led to the ...
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A little dark humour for this evening…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZG5evJYdos
sapiens my arse
That like wise shit?
thats like we are mis-named
How long till lockdown?
What’s the trigger point
You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
There's not.
There are a range of circumstances where a range of greater restrictions might apply in a range of areas, from a small locality to nationwide. We are already facing many restrictions.
As the circumstances change we might face more restrictions, and as time progresses we might face fewer restrictions (e.g. good drug treatment becomes evident, or a vaccine, or maybe the disease profile changes because less debilitating strains become dominant).
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
we are pretty much fucked then.
The trigger will be when we double our cases of ill every four days as it happens pretty much elsewhere and our hospitals are overwhelmed and without safety equipment as they are int he States, England, France, Italy and when we have people dying.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
California just shut down. NY is gonna be a basket case, Africa is gearing up to be very interesting. And we took way to long to even acknowledge that this thing could come here and wreck havoc and now are simply in mitigation mode. Containment is not possible anymore.
Several people today telling me about their family members in lock down. Those that have sleep outs are somewhat ok, those that are locked up with potentially ill people now have a great chance of falling ill themselves.
Maybe we are, maybe it's acrash we walk away from without a scratch, or with minor injuries.
Ed was worried that by now we'd have 4,000-odd cases, like Italy had after the same period.
We're just entering swordfish's estimated period for the first death (3-4 weeks from first confirmed case). Maybe as prognosticators the swordfish is mightier than the ed.
So I don't know. It's not a time-elapsed thing, it's a milestone that can happen at any time.
What I do know is that anyone who wants to survive 2020 might think of moderating their stress levels, because a popped subdural artery will kill you deader than a virus you have a good chance of not catching, even under the most pessimistic projections.
I'm not religious, but the Serenity Prayer has the right vibe. I just look for it in myself, rather than asking God for it.
mate, i am gonna go to hell in all the religions and i don't mind.
The reason we don't have '4000 odd cases' is that we don't test enough, and as per people those that call to get tested get an answer machine.
So that is a bit like the US today, this morning 9000 cases, this arvo 16.000 and California under shutdown.
As for moderating stress levels, well the government could help with that but so far they have done fuck all.
They could legalise weed by emergency degree, now that would help people to 'de-stress', (and yeah, no gummi bears, that would be too naughty and we can't have naughty), but thats not gonna happen.
They could ask the IRD to send money to people to stay at home,
but ….air planes or people….decision decisions…….
and we only have so much money, so planes it is.
But the booze lobby is wetting themselves, as are the banks, the supermarkets, and the gangs that sell the unregulated and untaxed drugs, and so on and so forth.
So don't worry McFlock, a few deserving people will survive and even get much richer, and no, never would i blame the government for not regulating and such, i shall blame capitalism as advised earlier.
If we have 4,000 cases, why don't we have all our ICU beds full of people with pneumonia etc that nobody has thought to check as being covid-19?
Or do we actually have 4,000 cases, but the strain with community release is more mild that what the rest of the world seems to be experiencing? In which case… actually, would that make us immune to the more lethal strains, too? Cowpx/smallpox style?
Well because as they say, not everyone will show symptoms, not everyone will get ill. That is my guess, and i would also assume that people stay home when they get ill initially and many will get better within a few days and not think twice about the funny bug they cought.
But a wee story from today. My partner usually always has a security guard with him when he goes to fix broken bank machines. That security guard has a girl live in the house who has a dry cough and high fever. So when he told this he was advised to call the Hotline number and see if she could get tested. Now she was not overseas etc etc and was told to do nothing. Stay home, isolate, oh, and her GP then told her to go and get a blood tests at the local labto make sure her blood issues don't act up. She takes a blood thinner. Now think of that. Isolate, but please go to the local clinic for a blood test. Stupidity and idiocy are us it seems.
I have a few friends in the states, many of whom had really weird 'flu' this winter. They are now wondering if they had the virus, and chances are they did, but it did not get tested, they got better blahblahblah.
So essentially we could already have many people carrying the virus, spreading it unwittingly by going to work, to shop, to live life.
And this is why i am so pissed at the government, they should know that, and they should give all of us that would like to go home and stay home the option and the financial security to do so. If you need to raise a 'solidarity tax" (done in Germany after the fall of the wall to pay for it all) then so be it. After all China did show us how it needs to be done.
But the best way to stop this thing in its tracks is shut down, for up to 8 -12 weeks – and again the earlier the better – and tell people to stay home.
Hence why i wanted a rent/mortgage/lease freeze, because at the end of the day, the thing that we don't want is sick people wandering the streets because they have been evicted, and half of our economy in the tank because all of our small businesses have to exhaust all other means before they apply to the on the dole – a potential 375.000 new beneficiaries.
they should have told us to go home, set up an ap, or web page to apply for your IRD payment and stay the fuck at home.
They did nothing.
Shutting the country down for three months over a disease that apparently has a hospitalisation rate of less than 1 in 4,000 (because we have this hoard of hidden cases that aren't going to hospital) seems excessive.
If we left it to cover 60% of the population over a few months, we could probably manage it relatively reasily, something like 500 patients in that timeframe?
BUT:
If it's got a 20% serious complication rate and the government has actually done very well at keeping the wolf from the door, good on the government.
Besides, if we just shut down, citizens might still come back from overseas after the shutdown. Or it jumps ship. Or gets in some other way. And we're back to where we are now.
i base my assumption on what i see overseas.
so unless we prove otherwise the most dire scenario is 3 month, the best case 4 weeks. Our saving grace is that we are at the bottom of the world, a small population and other then a few centres are not densly populated. . Disclaimer: I am german and thus always inclined to operate from the worst scenario cause if it is better then its a bonus.
I also would expect the virus to 'come ' back every now and then until we find a vaccine that works, or medication that works.
I personally would just like to know what about this virus it is that has our selected overlords of the planet so shit scared that they happily lock up people into their homes and crash the worlds economy while at it. (mind some republican had fun dumping stocks and making money…..so what do i kno 🙂 )
Ideally, we keep anyone out of the hospital that does not really need it, home care.
Japan basically told its people to go home, if you have a cough and fever stay home, only go to the hospital if you have a fever over 39.5 degree (101 f) for two days.
Even pull a Bojo, and let it run its course – controlled if we could. But i am not the one shutting down countries, closing borders, crashing the economy. I am just someone who is pissed that easter ain't gonna happen ( and as a chocolatier easter is the best! so much fun) i am pissed that my friends are scared of loosing the businesses that they have spend years building up, and i am pissed at this government not doing anything other tehn bailing our an airline who should have been left to die many years ago.
so my CT is simple as , they underfunded the health care sector so much that they actually can't deal with a really bad flu. They don't have the equipment, the masks, the gloves, the suits, etc etc etc and they are worried that if we all get ill at once and need health care we are gonna bankrupt what little health services we have.
What scares them isn't that it's a really bad flu.
What scares them is that it's worse than that.
You want to crash an economy? Constantly maintain 15,000 negative-pressure rooms that will be obsolete by the time they are used once in a hundred years. And do that for every possible, conceivable disaster. People complained enough about EQC levy, let alone volcano/pandemic/asteroid/hurricane levies on top of that.
this is my guess, and then they should come clean.
people may complain, they do that all the time 🙂 , but at the end of the day we need to finally understand and accept that we have the infrastructure that we pay for. So if we don't want to pay for hospitals, and equipment such as standard hazmat suits, masks etc, then we should not expect care to be given by nurses and doctors.
And maybe just maybe our government will grow some guts – no guts no glory as they say – and implement that wealth tax, that capital gains tax, because at the end of it, that is what they should do. And fuck it that maybe people don't like them. As it is now, they are alienating anyone who is not a beneficiaries (and even there i wold not hold my breath) or a CEO of a bankrupt air company.
Oh, fie on tax policy right now.
The govt has been upfront about the threat, and so has damned near everyone else. We all know the basic math if left unchecked: 60-odd% infection, ~1% case fatality rate, in the first wave. 25,000 NZers dead.
We also know the problem if the country is under heavy restriction, nobody in the streets, nobody at work, for three months. Millions of NZers without food or power over winter.
So we need to find a balance between the two, preferably staving off one while avoiding the other. That changes according to the situation, and that's why they have daily briefings.
So cgt and ubi debates, frankly, can hie themselves to a nunnery for the duration.
McFlock, we can discuss this endlessly, but we have a 50/50 chance of getting out of there lightly. Best case scenario.
and we have a 50% chance of a shit show and how are you going to keep people fed and warm and inside.
Its not conspiracy theory either as it is unfolding live in front of our eyes affecting directly our world. So roll the dice. Up its you, down its me.
Feeding NZ isn't the problem.
The problem is people making the extensive economic damage (which will kill people as badly as a pandemic) even worse by crapping their daks over the worst case scenario when there's no evidence we're any more likely to go there than get the best case scenario.
That means people inducing shortages for other people by panic-buying, when there would be enough for everyone if we all shopped normally.
US, UK, and most of Europe are well in the shit. Some of that is because they were hit early, before it was sequenced or we had tests. Some of it was because they had advisors tell them what they wanted to here, that the best thing was to do nothing. But we're an island. We have a non-porous border, and we had good notice and tests before we had our first case. We export food, and we have a sudden drop in tourists to feed. We're not going to starve. Other places might. But we will have a lot of businesses go under, especially if everyone's too terrified to go anywhere.
I went through what you're going through back in 2008.
It's tough. you pay all this tax, yet you won't get help until you basically crash and burn.
That's unfortunately just the way it works n NZ it's the proverbial ambulance of the cliff
i am gonna survive, due to me being tinny as and loath to take up loans i am good. The biggest worry is my lease – i spend quite a bit of money on getting my premises that i leased up to standard and licensed- but if i have too i can dip into my retirement savings. My lease also expires in December so i could just simply let it expire and see if i can turn my garage into a kitchen and get it lisenced. At least then the lease i pay goes towards my mortgage.
I am pissed for the others on my block, the hair dresser, the garage, the bakery, the dairy, the take away, i am pissed for the little businesses in my town. I am pissed for the young dudes that slaved for years working for others, doing the night market to get enough money up to open their own little joint – you know just enough money for teh bills and for them so they too can have a live and a family and a place to live.
there is no ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, there is a pack of paracetamol and when it hurts to much you apply at winz for a one pill to kill some of the pain. And frankly i rather hang myself then ever give myself over to Winz.
Well tax ain't insurance is it.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
Could you outline the logic behind your assessment that we're going to go from a few cases known to have come in from overseas and reasonably well isolated, to our hospitals being overwhelmed, in the next week?
From what i have seen is that once the testing goes underway the number of infected people jumps high very quickly very fast.
See the US. From 1 on Jan 23, to 15 on March 3rd, to 16000 on March 20th.
At that stage you have a choice, let it run, or shut down. Shut down is needed if you don't want to kill your health system, and by killing i mean that. Doctors, Nurses etc in the US and in England and France and elsewhere do not have the equipment to keep themselves save and a few doctors in all these countries and nurses are having the virus and in NY it appears that some of them work.
So we had 28 yesterday, 39 today, 50+ tomorrow, 80+ two days, 120 odd in three days, by the time we reach Wednesday next week it could be quite a few people.
And believe me i don't want a shut down. I can't afford it.
We're seeing a big spike in people who've been infected overseas because lots of people have come back here from infected countries. Exponential growth in that would require exponential growth in numbers returning from overseas. For your growth estimates to apply, we'd first need evidence of community transmission within NZ, which is currently non-existent. That community transmission will turn up, and that's when it will get serious, but it hasn't turned up yet.
It is not 'my' growth scenario
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/government-coronavirus-measures-based-on-infection-doubling-rate-of-4-days-not-the-5-it-said-writes-robert-peston/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51970815
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australia-coronavirus-cases-appear-to-be-doubling-every-three-days–c-747116
its been in the news for a few weeks.
You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
Lol, good question, we can't even agree on what a lockdown would consist of at my workplace, let alone the whole fucking country.
If the virus gets into the population with no links to recent overseas travel.
It would probably be introduced step by step as the need arises. Hopefully there will be no full blown lockdown as has occurred in Italy.
We can do no more than cross our fingers and follow instructions – washing hands, keeping physical distance of 2 metres (so hard to remember) and generally being sensible.
Edit: oops McFlock beat me to it and rather more colourfully. 🙂
Yes, we're all as clueless as the next person, this is a fairly unprecedented thing, if 6 months ago someone suggested we get ready and prepare for such a thing would anyone here taken it seriously? I just saw a G W Bush speech from when he was president saying such a pandemic could happen. Just calm down, our experts and leaders are just human like the rest of, trying their best, in a very strange and ever changing situation. Are we fucked? Quite possibly, or maybe like always, we will adapt, and cope. I'm a working wage earning solo father with school age kids living in South Dunedin, I just cant think of anything else to do but look after my kids and I, keep an eye on my elderly neighbours, and hope for the best.
I dunno, I'm here right now and I still can't take seriously the fact that the first thing people hoarded globally was toilet paper.
Good luck to you and yours.
I think the supermarkets have acted superbly actually! They could be price gouging, they could not bother with the rationing, because money, but there are still specials, the staff are excellent. My kids schools are calm and communicating with us parents, my work place has appropriate safety gear and hand sanitizer at every entry way, as do most business places.
totally agree,
the supermarket staff at our locals here are epic. Polite, smiling, (even tho they are worried themselves), helpful and so patient.
They should be given huge bonuses, hopefully.
and teachers, and cleaners!
yep, and nurses and doctors and your local shops that all try to keep it together and keep a semblance of normal.
Chatting to an Australian nurse, their leave has all been cancelled and they can't travel interstate. They're very calm, the situation changes every 4 hours, there are new guidelines for hospital staff that if they catch it once, they go on leave, as they have found overseas the more often you catch it the higher the chance of mortality. She said "info on infection control measures in health care seem to be implementing faster over there, that's def in NZs favour". Though they are getting ready for numbers to dramatically increase in the next few weeks.
yes, well if it attacks the lungs every single time at one stage the lung is done for.
so that might be what they are so scared of. It will kill us eventually.
As for the nurses? Increase their pay. If they ask where the money should come from they can tax Mike Hoskins, Gareth Morgan, and all the other tax avoiders a wealth tax. You know, to show solidarity to those that move the boat forward.
Centre City New World has a big display down by the deli section tonight – full pallets of baked beans, tinned spagghetti, and canned fruit salad.
What people were overbuying over the last week lol
We're the same here, had loo paper on special for a week, then canned tomatoes got bought out, now they are on special. The computerised stock control must be causing the supermarkets huge grief. At least all the runs are on non-perishables, apart from bread.
Our frozen veges were sold out today, be some good deals going there in a week or so.
I wonder if the stock control programs base loss-leader specials on demand surges? I just thought the pricing was a little bit of snark 🙂
I did notice sundried tomatos were empty tonight. Upper middle class must be panicking lol
Something not well noted is how much of the pandemic in China was in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei. And how effective this was quarantined from the rest of China.
yep.
And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same draconian travel bans domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
Here's a bit of background on the incompetent/ compromised WHO director
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/487851-china-and-the-whos-chief-hold-them-both-accountable-for-pandemic
Will leave this here
The email address is nhccselfisolation@health.govt.nz.
Contacted council today re overseas freedom campers, they are going to look into finding out which ones are recent arrivals and not self isolating.
A friend spoke with some freedom campers today and a number of them had decided it was safer in NZ than to return to home.
and all incoming emails will be answered within the SLA of 24 hours :)?
For the employed of us, the real helplessness starts on Monday.
All Auckland Council group staff are working from home, and of course the Skype will be intermittent at best.
All tourist companies will be putting their people on leave or just firing them.
Even the companies with people who are building massive infrastructure and can't work from home will get very close to being sent home.
So many of the suppliers will go down, from the caterers to the hairdressers to retail to travel.
Auckland central is a ghost town.
Yeah, our BCP boldly states people can work from home because we have Office365, SharePoint and mostly web-based specialist apps. This week have been talking with managers living in rural idylls with "broadband" that's more like dial-up, staff who can't remember how old their home computer is but it's more than 10 years, and one guy who doesn't even own a mobile phone, let alone a computer. Most I wouldn't trust to find an application on their computer that didn't have a desktop icon, let alone download and set up Skype for Business. My official assessment is that we meet the requirements of the BCP to a significant extent, my unofficial one is that we are so, so screwed.
Agreed.
And by the way may I say
Fucking Sharepoint.
Air NZ will be significantly downsizing, they've asked staff to take redundancy, reduced hours, or take unpaid leave. I guesstimate 50%+ headcount reductions (from 10,000 staff to around 5K)