You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
There's not.
There are a range of circumstances where a range of greater restrictions might apply in a range of areas, from a small locality to nationwide. We are already facing many restrictions.
As the circumstances change we might face more restrictions, and as time progresses we might face fewer restrictions (e.g. good drug treatment becomes evident, or a vaccine, or maybe the disease profile changes because less debilitating strains become dominant).
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
we are pretty much fucked then.
The trigger will be when we double our cases of ill every four days as it happens pretty much elsewhere and our hospitals are overwhelmed and without safety equipment as they are int he States, England, France, Italy and when we have people dying.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
California just shut down. NY is gonna be a basket case, Africa is gearing up to be very interesting. And we took way to long to even acknowledge that this thing could come here and wreck havoc and now are simply in mitigation mode. Containment is not possible anymore.
Several people today telling me about their family members in lock down. Those that have sleep outs are somewhat ok, those that are locked up with potentially ill people now have a great chance of falling ill themselves.
So I don't know. It's not a time-elapsed thing, it's a milestone that can happen at any time.
What I do know is that anyone who wants to survive 2020 might think of moderating their stress levels, because a popped subdural artery will kill you deader than a virus you have a good chance of not catching, even under the most pessimistic projections.
I'm not religious, but the Serenity Prayer has the right vibe. I just look for it in myself, rather than asking God for it.
mate, i am gonna go to hell in all the religions and i don't mind.
The reason we don't have '4000 odd cases' is that we don't test enough, and as per people those that call to get tested get an answer machine.
So that is a bit like the US today, this morning 9000 cases, this arvo 16.000 and California under shutdown.
As for moderating stress levels, well the government could help with that but so far they have done fuck all.
They could legalise weed by emergency degree, now that would help people to 'de-stress', (and yeah, no gummi bears, that would be too naughty and we can't have naughty), but thats not gonna happen.
They could ask the IRD to send money to people to stay at home,
but ….air planes or people….decision decisions…….
and we only have so much money, so planes it is.
But the booze lobby is wetting themselves, as are the banks, the supermarkets, and the gangs that sell the unregulated and untaxed drugs, and so on and so forth.
So don't worry McFlock, a few deserving people will survive and even get much richer, and no, never would i blame the government for not regulating and such, i shall blame capitalism as advised earlier.
If we have 4,000 cases, why don't we have all our ICU beds full of people with pneumonia etc that nobody has thought to check as being covid-19?
Or do we actually have 4,000 cases, but the strain with community release is more mild that what the rest of the world seems to be experiencing? In which case… actually, would that make us immune to the more lethal strains, too? Cowpx/smallpox style?
Well because as they say, not everyone will show symptoms, not everyone will get ill. That is my guess, and i would also assume that people stay home when they get ill initially and many will get better within a few days and not think twice about the funny bug they cought.
But a wee story from today. My partner usually always has a security guard with him when he goes to fix broken bank machines. That security guard has a girl live in the house who has a dry cough and high fever. So when he told this he was advised to call the Hotline number and see if she could get tested. Now she was not overseas etc etc and was told to do nothing. Stay home, isolate, oh, and her GP then told her to go and get a blood tests at the local labto make sure her blood issues don't act up. She takes a blood thinner. Now think of that. Isolate, but please go to the local clinic for a blood test. Stupidity and idiocy are us it seems.
I have a few friends in the states, many of whom had really weird 'flu' this winter. They are now wondering if they had the virus, and chances are they did, but it did not get tested, they got better blahblahblah.
So essentially we could already have many people carrying the virus, spreading it unwittingly by going to work, to shop, to live life.
And this is why i am so pissed at the government, they should know that, and they should give all of us that would like to go home and stay home the option and the financial security to do so. If you need to raise a 'solidarity tax" (done in Germany after the fall of the wall to pay for it all) then so be it. After all China did show us how it needs to be done.
But the best way to stop this thing in its tracks is shut down, for up to 8 -12 weeks – and again the earlier the better – and tell people to stay home.
Hence why i wanted a rent/mortgage/lease freeze, because at the end of the day, the thing that we don't want is sick people wandering the streets because they have been evicted, and half of our economy in the tank because all of our small businesses have to exhaust all other means before they apply to the on the dole – a potential 375.000 new beneficiaries.
they should have told us to go home, set up an ap, or web page to apply for your IRD payment and stay the fuck at home.
Shutting the country down for three months over a disease that apparently has a hospitalisation rate of less than 1 in 4,000 (because we have this hoard of hidden cases that aren't going to hospital) seems excessive.
If we left it to cover 60% of the population over a few months, we could probably manage it relatively reasily, something like 500 patients in that timeframe?
BUT:
If it's got a 20% serious complication rate and the government has actually done very well at keeping the wolf from the door, good on the government.
Besides, if we just shut down, citizens might still come back from overseas after the shutdown. Or it jumps ship. Or gets in some other way. And we're back to where we are now.
so unless we prove otherwise the most dire scenario is 3 month, the best case 4 weeks. Our saving grace is that we are at the bottom of the world, a small population and other then a few centres are not densly populated. . Disclaimer: I am german and thus always inclined to operate from the worst scenario cause if it is better then its a bonus.
I also would expect the virus to 'come ' back every now and then until we find a vaccine that works, or medication that works.
I personally would just like to know what about this virus it is that has our selected overlords of the planet so shit scared that they happily lock up people into their homes and crash the worlds economy while at it. (mind some republican had fun dumping stocks and making money…..so what do i kno 🙂 )
Ideally, we keep anyone out of the hospital that does not really need it, home care.
Japan basically told its people to go home, if you have a cough and fever stay home, only go to the hospital if you have a fever over 39.5 degree (101 f) for two days.
Even pull a Bojo, and let it run its course – controlled if we could. But i am not the one shutting down countries, closing borders, crashing the economy. I am just someone who is pissed that easter ain't gonna happen ( and as a chocolatier easter is the best! so much fun) i am pissed that my friends are scared of loosing the businesses that they have spend years building up, and i am pissed at this government not doing anything other tehn bailing our an airline who should have been left to die many years ago.
so my CT is simple as , they underfunded the health care sector so much that they actually can't deal with a really bad flu. They don't have the equipment, the masks, the gloves, the suits, etc etc etc and they are worried that if we all get ill at once and need health care we are gonna bankrupt what little health services we have.
What scares them isn't that it's a really bad flu.
What scares them is that it's worse than that.
You want to crash an economy? Constantly maintain 15,000 negative-pressure rooms that will be obsolete by the time they are used once in a hundred years. And do that for every possible, conceivable disaster. People complained enough about EQC levy, let alone volcano/pandemic/asteroid/hurricane levies on top of that.
@ McFlok : What scares them is that it's worse than that.
this is my guess, and then they should come clean.
people may complain, they do that all the time 🙂 , but at the end of the day we need to finally understand and accept that we have the infrastructure that we pay for. So if we don't want to pay for hospitals, and equipment such as standard hazmat suits, masks etc, then we should not expect care to be given by nurses and doctors.
And maybe just maybe our government will grow some guts – no guts no glory as they say – and implement that wealth tax, that capital gains tax, because at the end of it, that is what they should do. And fuck it that maybe people don't like them. As it is now, they are alienating anyone who is not a beneficiaries (and even there i wold not hold my breath) or a CEO of a bankrupt air company.
The govt has been upfront about the threat, and so has damned near everyone else. We all know the basic math if left unchecked: 60-odd% infection, ~1% case fatality rate, in the first wave. 25,000 NZers dead.
We also know the problem if the country is under heavy restriction, nobody in the streets, nobody at work, for three months. Millions of NZers without food or power over winter.
So we need to find a balance between the two, preferably staving off one while avoiding the other. That changes according to the situation, and that's why they have daily briefings.
So cgt and ubi debates, frankly, can hie themselves to a nunnery for the duration.
The problem is people making the extensive economic damage (which will kill people as badly as a pandemic) even worse by crapping their daks over the worst case scenario when there's no evidence we're any more likely to go there than get the best case scenario.
That means people inducing shortages for other people by panic-buying, when there would be enough for everyone if we all shopped normally.
US, UK, and most of Europe are well in the shit. Some of that is because they were hit early, before it was sequenced or we had tests. Some of it was because they had advisors tell them what they wanted to here, that the best thing was to do nothing. But we're an island. We have a non-porous border, and we had good notice and tests before we had our first case. We export food, and we have a sudden drop in tourists to feed. We're not going to starve. Other places might. But we will have a lot of businesses go under, especially if everyone's too terrified to go anywhere.
i am gonna survive, due to me being tinny as and loath to take up loans i am good. The biggest worry is my lease – i spend quite a bit of money on getting my premises that i leased up to standard and licensed- but if i have too i can dip into my retirement savings. My lease also expires in December so i could just simply let it expire and see if i can turn my garage into a kitchen and get it lisenced. At least then the lease i pay goes towards my mortgage.
I am pissed for the others on my block, the hair dresser, the garage, the bakery, the dairy, the take away, i am pissed for the little businesses in my town. I am pissed for the young dudes that slaved for years working for others, doing the night market to get enough money up to open their own little joint – you know just enough money for teh bills and for them so they too can have a live and a family and a place to live.
there is no ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, there is a pack of paracetamol and when it hurts to much you apply at winz for a one pill to kill some of the pain. And frankly i rather hang myself then ever give myself over to Winz.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
Could you outline the logic behind your assessment that we're going to go from a few cases known to have come in from overseas and reasonably well isolated, to our hospitals being overwhelmed, in the next week?
From what i have seen is that once the testing goes underway the number of infected people jumps high very quickly very fast.
See the US. From 1 on Jan 23, to 15 on March 3rd, to 16000 on March 20th.
At that stage you have a choice, let it run, or shut down. Shut down is needed if you don't want to kill your health system, and by killing i mean that. Doctors, Nurses etc in the US and in England and France and elsewhere do not have the equipment to keep themselves save and a few doctors in all these countries and nurses are having the virus and in NY it appears that some of them work.
So we had 28 yesterday, 39 today, 50+ tomorrow, 80+ two days, 120 odd in three days, by the time we reach Wednesday next week it could be quite a few people.
And believe me i don't want a shut down. I can't afford it.
We're seeing a big spike in people who've been infected overseas because lots of people have come back here from infected countries. Exponential growth in that would require exponential growth in numbers returning from overseas. For your growth estimates to apply, we'd first need evidence of community transmission within NZ, which is currently non-existent. That community transmission will turn up, and that's when it will get serious, but it hasn't turned up yet.
If the virus gets into the population with no links to recent overseas travel.
It would probably be introduced step by step as the need arises. Hopefully there will be no full blown lockdown as has occurred in Italy.
We can do no more than cross our fingers and follow instructions – washing hands, keeping physical distance of 2 metres (so hard to remember) and generally being sensible.
Edit: oops McFlock beat me to it and rather more colourfully. 🙂
Yes, we're all as clueless as the next person, this is a fairly unprecedented thing, if 6 months ago someone suggested we get ready and prepare for such a thing would anyone here taken it seriously? I just saw a G W Bush speech from when he was president saying such a pandemic could happen. Just calm down, our experts and leaders are just human like the rest of, trying their best, in a very strange and ever changing situation. Are we fucked? Quite possibly, or maybe like always, we will adapt, and cope. I'm a working wage earning solo father with school age kids living in South Dunedin, I just cant think of anything else to do but look after my kids and I, keep an eye on my elderly neighbours, and hope for the best.
I think the supermarkets have acted superbly actually! They could be price gouging, they could not bother with the rationing, because money, but there are still specials, the staff are excellent. My kids schools are calm and communicating with us parents, my work place has appropriate safety gear and hand sanitizer at every entry way, as do most business places.
Chatting to an Australian nurse, their leave has all been cancelled and they can't travel interstate. They're very calm, the situation changes every 4 hours, there are new guidelines for hospital staff that if they catch it once, they go on leave, as they have found overseas the more often you catch it the higher the chance of mortality. She said "info on infection control measures in health care seem to be implementing faster over there, that's def in NZs favour". Though they are getting ready for numbers to dramatically increase in the next few weeks.
yes, well if it attacks the lungs every single time at one stage the lung is done for.
so that might be what they are so scared of. It will kill us eventually.
As for the nurses? Increase their pay. If they ask where the money should come from they can tax Mike Hoskins, Gareth Morgan, and all the other tax avoiders a wealth tax. You know, to show solidarity to those that move the boat forward.
We're the same here, had loo paper on special for a week, then canned tomatoes got bought out, now they are on special. The computerised stock control must be causing the supermarkets huge grief. At least all the runs are on non-perishables, apart from bread.
Our frozen veges were sold out today, be some good deals going there in a week or so.
Something not well noted is how much of the pandemic in China was in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei. And how effective this was quarantined from the rest of China.
And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same draconian travel bans domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
The Ministry of Health has set up an email address directed to health immigration and police for those with confirmed cases and also breaches of self-isolation and mass gatherings.
Yeah, our BCP boldly states people can work from home because we have Office365, SharePoint and mostly web-based specialist apps. This week have been talking with managers living in rural idylls with "broadband" that's more like dial-up, staff who can't remember how old their home computer is but it's more than 10 years, and one guy who doesn't even own a mobile phone, let alone a computer. Most I wouldn't trust to find an application on their computer that didn't have a desktop icon, let alone download and set up Skype for Business. My official assessment is that we meet the requirements of the BCP to a significant extent, my unofficial one is that we are so, so screwed.
Air NZ will be significantly downsizing, they've asked staff to take redundancy, reduced hours, or take unpaid leave. I guesstimate 50%+ headcount reductions (from 10,000 staff to around 5K)
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It started as a family story, about a step-father who went out one night to break into an embassy in Wadestown, Wellington. John Daniell wanted to understand what his family had been part of when his mother and then step-father work for New Zealand’s Security Intelligence. He wanted to know ...
The Greens have shaken up the election campaign with the announcement of their radical poverty and action plan to reform welfare provision and introduce a new wealth tax for millionaires. It’s a big-thinking, controversial policy and has generated a lot of disagreement over how radical it is, whether it could ...
My house is currently supplied electricity by Meridian. As soon as I can change I will because Meridian spilled water to hike electricity prices. They got consumers to spend an extra $80 million on power unnecessarily. Clever them. The Electricity Authority has called their behaviour an “undesirable trading situation”, or ...
When Jacinda Ardern unexpectedly became the Labour Party leader shortly before the 2017 general election, she promised to lead a government of transformation. After nearly three years occupying the Treasury benches, health professionals working in public hospitals have been keenly waiting for transformational progress, including in the capacity and quality ...
Last night, One News ran a follow-up story to its Colmar Brunton poll results on the cannabis referendum, headed here as Government accuses big American anti-cannabis group of interfering in NZ politics.In truth it wasn't just the government: Justice minister Andrew Little, National's Shane Reti and the Greens' Chloe Swarbrick ...
Mark Patterson MP, Spokesperson for Primary Industry New Zealand First is supporting calls by hunters and the New Zealand Tahr Foundation (NZTF) to halt a large scale cull of Himalayan Tahr by the Department of Conservation in National Parks. The calls are supported by a 40,000 strong petition and the ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First New Zealand First leader Winston Peters today scoffed at suggestions that a team of six political operatives have been dispatched to New Zealand to assist his campaign. ‘As President Ronald Reagan once said, ‘there they go again.’ ‘The clickbait journos can’t ...
New Zealand First is pleased to announce Jenny Marcroft as the party’s election 2020 candidate for the Auckland Central electorate. Jenny spent years working in Auckland Central, having spent a vast proportion of her broadcasting career there. She says she, "knows the place and knows the people." Ms Marcroft says ...
New Zealanders deserve healthy rivers and lakes that are safe to swim in - but they have been getting worse for decades. That's why, with our latest announcement, we're investing in projects that will help clean up our rivers and lakes and restore them to health, within a generation. ...
This week we moved into the second half of 2020 - and our Government delivered another week of big changes and major progress for New Zealanders. Read below for a wrap of the key things moments from the week - from extending paid parental leave, to making major investments in ...
The Green Party has opposed the COVID-19 Recovery Fast-track Consenting Bill which shortcuts normal consenting processes under the Resource Management Act (RMA), reduces public participation and narrows environmental considerations. ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister of Regional Economic Development A regional freight hub for the lower North Island will be built just northeast of Palmerston North, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. The Government is investing $40 million through the Provincial Growth Fund to designate and buy land and design ...
Green Party Co-leader Marama Davidson is calling for the introduction of a Guaranteed Minimum Income to lift hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty and prevent more families entering into further debt with the Ministry of Social Development. ...
There has been renewed focus on New Zealand First acting as a handbrake on the Government after our decision to not support Auckland light rail. We are a handbrake for bad ideas, that istrue, but our track record since 2017 has seen New Zealand First constructively also serve as an ...
Mark Patterson MP, New Zealand First List MP New Zealand First’s Fair Residency for Superannuation Bill passed its First Reading in Parliament today. The Bill makes a significant change to NZ Super by raising the minimum residency requirement from 10 to 20 years, after age 20. “Currently, a migrant of ...
Darroch Ball MP, Spokesperson for Law and Order A New Zealand First member’s bill in the name of Darroch Ball introducing a six-month minimum prison sentence for assaults on first responders has passed its second reading in Parliament. The new offence of "injuring a first responder or corrections officer with ...
Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Deputy Leader of New Zealand First New Zealand First welcomes the launch of the new Criminal Cases Review Commission, gifted with the name from Waikato-Tainui - Te Kāhui Tātari Ture, announced in Hamilton today by Justice Minister Andrew Little. “New Zealand First has long believed in and ...
The Green Party is celebrating over $800m in new funding for green projects, which will get people into jobs while solving New Zealand’s long-term challenges. ...
Mark Patterson MP, Spokesperson for Primary Industries New Zealand First is appalled that Meridian seems to have been unnecessarily spilling water from its dams to drive up its profits."While New Zealanders have been coming together in some of our darkest hours, we don’t expect power gentailers to waste water and ...
We wrapped up the first half of 2020 with a busy month, taking additional steps to support New Zealanders as we continue with our economic recovery. We rolled out targeted packages to support key industries like tourism and construction, helped create jobs in the environmental and agriculture sectors, and set ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister for Infrastructure Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones has welcomed the appointment of Maurice Davis and his deep infrastructure and construction experience to the board of the Infrastructure Commission. Mr Davis (Ngāti Maniapoto), is the seventh and final appointment to the board led by former Reserve Bank Governor ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First New Zealand’s click bait journalism is taking a turn for the worse, with yet another example of sensationalist, wilful-misrepresentation of the facts. “New Zealand First has worked constructively with its Coalition partner on hundreds of pieces of legislation and policy, and ...
The Green Party is today unveiling its Poverty Action Plan, which includes a Guaranteed Minimum Income to ensure people have enough to live with dignity. ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development The Rotorua Museum redevelopment and Whakarewarewa and Tokorangi Forest projects will be accelerated thanks to a $2.09 million Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) boost, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher ...
This week, we rolled out the next steps of our recovery plan, with new infrastructure investment, extra support for tourism operators, and a new programme to get Kiwis into agriculture careers. The global economic consequences of COVID-19 will continue to be a challenge, but we have a detailed plan to ...
Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First welcomes the passage of the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill through its final reading in Parliament today fulfilling a coalition agreement commitment. “This is an important step in saving the lives of New Zealanders and delivers a key coalition commitment ...
Whakatāne has been given a $2.5 million boost to speed up previously funded projects and create more than 450 jobs in the next decade. Of those, the equivalent of 160 full-time jobs could be delivered in the next six weeks. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters is in town to make ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $2.5 million to accelerate three infrastructure projects in Whakatāne, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “This package is about ...
Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones is throwing his weight behind a bid by the Auckland Council to fast-track the more than doubling of the city's water allowance from the Waikato River. And he's coming out strongly against anyone who plans on getting in the way of this campaign. "It is my ...
The Green Party is thrilled to see changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that mean consents for large projects can be declined if they will have significant climate change implications that are inconsistent with the Zero Carbon Act and Aotearoa New Zealand’s Paris Agreement obligations. ...
Hon Ron Mark, Minister of Defence The Royal New Zealand Navy’s new ship, Aotearoa, set sail for New Zealand on 10 June from the Republic of Korea, and is due to arrive in Auckland tomorrow, announced Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “Aotearoa is the Royal New Zealand Navy’s new fleet ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Racing Racing Minister Winston Peters has today welcomed the Racing Industry Bill passing its third reading, creating the legislative framework for revitalising the racing industry while limiting the need for future government intervention. “For too long our domestic racing industry has ...
The Green Party has today put forward an amendment to the Electoral (Registration of Sentenced Prisoners) Amendment Bill to ensure all people in prisons can vote in general elections. ...
The Green Party welcomes the decision to not proceed with Public Public Investment (PPI) delivery of Auckland’s light rail project and to instead run the process through the public service. ...
Hon Ron Mark, New Zealand First List MP based in the Wairarapa New Zealand First List MP Hon Ron Mark welcomes the announcement of Provincial Growth Funding investment of $1.4 million to help secure the Wairarapa’s water supply. The funding boost will allow the Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC), and ...
New Zealand First list MP Mark Patterson has been selected to represent the party in the newly formed Taieri electorate at the upcoming election. Mr Patterson, his wife Jude and two daughters farm sheep and beef at Lawrence and Waitahuna. He previously stood in the Clutha-Southland electorate however boundary changes ...
Hon Shane Jones, Associate Minister for State Owned Enterprises A new ‘super depot’ to be built for NZ Post in Wellington will create around 350 jobs during construction, Associate Minister for State Owned Enterprises Shane Jones says. Shane Jones today attended a ground-breaking and blessing ceremony for the parcel-processing depot ...
Our strong economic management prior to COVID-19 - with surpluses, low debt and near-record-low unemployment - put us in a good position to weather the impact of the virus and start to rebuild our economy much earlier than many other countries.Now we're putting our plan to recover and rebuild ...
Darroch Ball MP, New Zealand First Spokesperson for Law and Order Recently released Police fleeing driver statistics have shown yet another increase in incidents with another record-high in the latest quarter. “This new quarterly record-high is the latest in a string of record-high numbers since 2014. The data shows incidents ...
The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio is pleased to announce the inaugural launch of Kiribati Language Week as part of the 2020 Pacific language Weeks programme. “I am so pleased that this year we are able to provide resourcing support to the Kiribati community in Aotearoa which will ...
Wildlife institutions affected by a loss of visitor revenue during the COVID-19 lockdown are set to receive government support with nearly $15 million of funding available announced Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “Eco-sanctuaries, zoos, aquariums, wildlife parks, and wildlife rescue, hospital and rehabilitation facilities provide crucial support for the recovery ...
The Government is expanding and accelerating frontline mental health and wellbeing services at tertiary education institutes (TEI) to help students manage ongoing stresses related to COVID-19. “The lockdown has been hugely disruptive for students. Many of them have had to relocate and move to online learning, isolating them from their ...
The Minister of Police says a major operation against the Mongrel Mob in Waikato will make a big dent in drug harm and violent offending linked to organised crime networks. “Senior leadership of the Waikato Mongrel Mob has been taken out as a result of Operation Kingsville, which resulted in ...
The Government is extending the border exception criteria to enable some offshore victims and support people of the Christchurch mosque attacks to attend the sentencing of the accused beginning on 24 August2020, says Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway. “We want to support our valued Muslim brothers and sisters who were directly ...
A project to support volunteer efforts to look after streams and rivers is getting a boost thanks to support from DOC’s Community Conservation Fund announced Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage today. “The government is backing efforts to look after waterways with $199,400 for the Mountains to Sea Conservation Trust from ...
Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter today announced that funding for the COVID-19 Community Fund for women and girls will be doubled, as the first successful funding applications for the initial $1million were revealed. “Women and girls across the country have suffered because of the effects of COVID-19, and I ...
The Government’s books were better than forecast with a higher GST take as the economy got moving again after lockdown, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Crown Accounts for the 11 months to the end of May indicate the year end results for tax revenue will be stronger than forecast. ...
A plan to revitalise New Zealand’s strong wool sector and set it on a new, more sustainable and profitable path was unveiled today by Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. The newly-released report - Vision and Action for New Zealand’s Wool Sector - was developed by the Wool Industry Project Action Group ...
Community efforts to create a Predator Free Whangārei will receive a $6 million boost, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage announced today. The new funding, through Government company Predator Free 2050 Ltd, will create around 12 jobs while enabling the complete removal of possums over ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced that the New Zealand Government is reviewing the settings of its relationship with Hong Kong. “China’s decision to pass a new national security law for Hong Kong has fundamentally changed the environment for international engagement there,” Mr Peters said. “New Zealand remains deeply ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced details of a multimillion-dollar investment in Whangārei for infrastructure projects that will help it recover from the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 200 jobs are expected to be created through the $26 million investment from the Government’s rejuvenation package ...
Following a second incident in which a person escaped from a managed isolation facility, security is being enhanced, including more police presence onsite, Minister Megan Woods said. “The actions of some individuals who choose to break the very clear rules to stay within the facilities means that more resourcing is ...
Waste reduction and recycling programmes in Kaipara are set to get a boost with Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage today announcing a $361,447 grant from the Ministry for the Environment’s Waste Minimisation Fund (WMF) Sustainable Kaipara. “The new funding will allow Sustainable Kaipara to partner with local schools, kura, community ...
The Government will support the Southland economy in the wake of multinational mining company Rio Tinto’s decision to follow through with its long signalled closure of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. “This day has unfortunately been on the cards for some time now, but nevertheless the final decision is a ...
New tools being developed to help boost Aotearoa’s Predator Free 2050 effort were unveiled today by Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage and Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau. A new rat poison, a camera with predator recognition software to detect and report predators, a new predator lure and a ...
The Coalition Government has approved the purchase of a fleet of Bushmaster vehicles to replace the New Zealand Army’s armoured Pinzgauers, Defence Minister Ron Mark has announced today. The new fleet of 43 Australian-designed and built Bushmaster NZ5.5 will provide better protection for personnel and improved carrying capacity. “The age ...
The Government’s three prevention frameworks to reduce family violence in Aotearoa were launched this week by Associate Minister for Social Development Poto Williams. The frameworks were developed in partnership with communities around New Zealand, and build on the work the Government has already begun with its new family violence prevention ...
The Government is pleased to confirm funding for improvements to radiology and surgical services at Hawke's Bay DHB, Health Minister Chris Hipkins says. "The Minister of Finance the Hon Grant Robertson and former Health Minister Dr David Clark approved funding for Hawke's Bay DHB’s redevelopment of their radiology facilities ...
• New funding for four beds at Napier’s Springhill Residential Addiction Centre • A new managed withdrawal home and community service, and peer support before and after residential care at Tairāwhiti DHB • A co-ordinated network of withdrawal management services throughout the South Island • Peer support in Rotorua and ...
Introduction, seafarers and POAL Good morning everyone, I am delighted to be online with you all today. Before I begin, I have to acknowledge that COVID-19 has disrupted the maritime sector on an unprecedented scale. The work of seafarers and the maritime industry is keeping many economies around the world ...
A $13 million investment from Government will create jobs and improve the resilience of the rail connection between Christchurch and the West Coast, Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones and Regional Economic Development Under-Secretary Fletcher Tabuteau say. The funding comes from the tagged contingency set aside in Budget 2020 for infrastructure projects ...
The Government is investing $761 million to assist local government upgrade under-pressure water services across the country, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The announcement was made at the site of the water bore that was found to be the source of the fatal ...
Recognised Seasonal Employers and migrant seasonal workers stranded in New Zealand will be able to continue working and supporting themselves with more flexible hours and roles, says Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway. The time-limited visa changes are: Stranded RSE workers will be able to work part-time (a minimum of 15 hours ...
The Government is making immediate short-term changes to visa settings to support temporary migrants already onshore in New Zealand and their employers, while also ensuring New Zealanders needing work are prioritised, Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. We are: Extending temporary work visas due to expire by the end of 2020 ...
Professor Peter Skelton CNZM has been appointed as Chief Freshwater Commissioner and Alternate Environment Court Judge Craig James Thompson as Deputy Chief Freshwater Commissioner for the newly established Freshwater Planning Process (FPP). Environment Minister David Parker today also announced the appointment of Chief Environment Court Judge Laurie Newhook as the ...
Auckland Queen’s Counsel Neil Campbell has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Campbell graduated with a BCom and LLB (Hons) from the University of Auckland in 1992. He spent two years with Bell Gully Buddle Weir in Auckland before travelling to the United ...
The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to better enable the development and operation of commercial film and video facilities in Christchurch. The Proposal, developed by Regenerate Christchurch in response to a request from Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section ...
The Government has launched a bold plan to boost primary sector export earnings by $44 billion over the next decade, while protecting the environment and growing jobs. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today released Fit for a Better World – Accelerating our Economic Potential, a 10-year roadmap to unlock greater value ...
A new approach to prevent family harm that encourages greater collaboration across government and community groups is being celebrated at the opening of a new facility in Auckland. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today opened the Multi-Disciplinary Family Harm Prevention Hub Te Taanga Manawa in Lambie Road in Manukau. The facility ...
The Government has released a major new report on the options for relocating the Port of Auckland’s freight operations while deferring any decision on the issue. “That decision needs to be informed by policy analysis that is still to be completed. As a result it will be up to a ...
The history of Rāpaki is being restored through the inclusion of te reo in thirteen official place names on Te Pātaka-o-Rākaihautū / Banks Peninsula and around Lyttelton Harbour/Whakaraupō, the Minister for Land Information, Eugenie Sage, announced today. “I am pleased to approve the proposals from Te Hapū o Ngāti ...
Bookings for seats on Air New Zealand flights into New Zealand will be managed in the short term to ensure the Government is able to safely place New Zealanders arriving home into a managed isolation or quarantine facility, says Housing Minister Megan Woods. “Last week Air Commodore Darryn Webb and I ...
Grant Robertson has today announced the first major release of funding from the $265 million Sport Recovery Package announced at Budget 2020. “Today we’re setting out how $80 million will be invested, with $54 million of that over the 2020/2021 financial year for organisations from community level through to elite ...
The Government is maintaining current levy rates for the next 2 years, as part of a set of changes to help ease the financial pressures of COVID-19 providing certainty for businesses and New Zealanders, ACC Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. “New Zealanders and businesses are facing unprecedented financial pressures as a ...
Small businesses are getting greater certainty about access to finance with an extension to the interest-free cashflow loan scheme to the end of the year. The Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme has already been extended once, to 24 July. Revenue and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash says it will be ...
A package of 23 projects across the country will clean up waterways and deliver over 2000 jobs Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Environment Minister David Parker announced today. The $162 million dollar package will see 22 water clean-up projects put forward by local councils receiving $62 million and the Kaipara ...
Tena koutou katoa Nga tangata whenua o tenei rohe o Pōneke, tena koutou Nau mai, haere mai ki te hui a tau mo te roopu reipa Ko tatou! Ko to tatou mana! Ko to tatou kaupapa kei te kokiri whakamua Tena koutou, tena koutou, tena tatou katoa Welcome. I ...
The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $1.5 million to ensure QE Health in Rotorua can proceed with its world class health service and save 75 existing jobs, Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The PGF funding announced today is in addition to the $8 million ...
A new programme, which sets a firm course for the Building and Construction sector to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, has been announced by the Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa. “A significant amount of New Zealand’s carbon emissions come from the building and construction sector. If we’re serious ...
Unbelievable. A first-rank world leader picks a needless fight with blameless allies, thus imperiling their unity. But that’s General de Gaulle for you.Impressive work, even by his standards. In 1967, Canada was to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the Battle of Vimy Ridge (their Gallipoli – except that they ...
From RNZ Saturday Morning Described by a Guardian reviewer as “superb hate-reading”, writer and columnist Anand Giridharadas‘s latest book Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World investigates the hypocrisy of billionaire “do-gooders”. He questions how and why we have become reliant on the philanthropy of the super-rich ...
The Professional Hunting Guides Association is welcoming the High Court decision on DoC’s controversial tahr campaign. The High Court in Wellington was asked on Wednesday by the Tahr Foundation for a judicial review of DoC’s plan to kill thousands ...
With the 2020 general election nearly three months away, a new campaign is asking voters to vote in line with the future. Vote Climate 2020 aims to highlight the opportunity to build momentum behind climate change, ensuring climate justice is a key election ...
“ACT will target the gangs by hitting them where it hurts – their pockets,” according to ACT Leader David Seymour and Firearms Spokesperson Nicole McKee. “New Zealanders deserve to be safe and secure, but violent gangs are a scourge on our ...
Waffles don’t need to be sweet – these cheese and onion numbers make an excellent savoury breakfast with an egg, or an equally tasty dinner with leftover mince.It’s easy to default to sweet breakfasts without thinking. At least that’s the case in our household, as porridge or bircher muesli is ...
The government is revitalising the wool sector, splashing out on freshwater restoration projects, relieving student stress and showing kindness to Muslims by extending the border exception criteria. It is also increasing its support (in announcements from two separate Green Party Ministers) for women and for wildlife institutions. And it is ...
People have called it for it be pulled from the service, but the escapist fantasy of 365 Days is nothing new, writes Alie Benge.To every generation, a bullish alpha-male psychopath is born, and is for someone reason considered a romantic hero. We’ve been through a lot this year, and instead ...
As Aucklanders reluctantly adjust to the inconvenient practice of water conservation, a drought-savvy Northlander shares the tips and temperament needed to get through the dry times.Auckland’s water shortage was recently reported on The Project, and viewers were earnestly exhorted to fill their dishwashers completely before turning them on. My husband ...
Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk A request by the Philippines’ biggest radio and TV network for a new franchise has been rejected by a congressional committee in a vote that will go down in history as a flagrant violation of the country’s constitution, says Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The Paris-based media ...
Hamish Walker's privacy leak debacle dominated the news this week, but it's not the first time a southern MP has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons, writes Daisy Hudson. ...
Let’s not allow the focus on big-budget infrastructure projects to detract from the vital role public transport will play in revitalising our cities in a post-Covid world, says Greg Pollock.The recent match between the Blues and the Hurricanes was one of the world’s first major post-lockdown sporting fixtures. It was ...
For all The Spinoff’s latest coverage of Covid-19 see here. Read Siouxsie Wiles’s work here. New Zealand is currently in alert level one – read about what that means here. For official government advice, see here.The Spinoff’s coverage of the Covid-19 outbreak is made possible thanks to donations from Spinoff Members. To support this ...
In the heart of Christchurch is a Designated Character high school. What makes it unique? And should there be more like it? Frank Film visits Hagley College Paddy Grant was a 27-year-old truck driver when he rocked up to Christchurch’s Hagley High School, as it was then known. It was ...
"After he calms down we share the pie and talk about how hard the years since the show have been for him": a short story by Wellington writer Jordan Hamel. Every morning it’s the same. Cling wrap on the toilet seat, a pop up snake in my can of breakfast ...
Childcare centre closures have left families and staff out in the cold. In some cases, they were given just three days’ notice, Laura Walters reports Staff and families of Auckland’s Discoveries Educare branches feel blindsided by the sudden closure of the early childhood education centres. The Ministry of Education has ...
Controversy and the America's Cup go hand-in-hand and the latest edition is no different with Emirates Team New Zealand at the centre of financial mismanagement allegations. Extra Time unpicks the debate and ponders what does the latest Cup drama mean? And should we care? A study has revealed racial bias ...
Over the decades, Mike Fox has witnessed the housing market progressively tilt towards larger, more expensive homes. Without a major overhaul of the current regulatory processes, he says, things will never change.It’s one of the biggest problems our country faces – we cannot produce the affordable housing that’s so desperately ...
So-called dirty deals have been roundly denounced over the years. Hayden Donnell argues that they need to be normalised, and even embraced, in September’s election.Just before the 2011 general election, Patrick Gower was confronted with a political act so stomach-churning, it forced him to abandon his trademark reserve. John Key ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics, University of South Australia Victoria has recorded 288 new COVID-19 cases since yesterday, the largest daily increase we’ve seen so far. This big jump must have the Victorian government and health authorities very concerned, especially since nearly ...
The controversial 101 East episode Locked Up in Malaysia’s Lockdown on 3 July 2020. Video: Al JazeeraPacific Media Watch Newsdesk Malaysian police summoned six Al Jazeera media workers today for questioning relating to an investigation for defamation and violation of Malaysia’s Communications and Multimedia Act (CMA), reports IFJ Asia-Pacific. ...
Analysis - A National MP destroys his career, the government explains how someone with Covid-19 could walk around a supermarket and the closure of Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is announced. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Epidemiologist, UNSW Australia’s chief medical officer Paul Kelly today recommended people in Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire wear masks when leaving the house: […] If people have symptoms and they need to go for a test, for example, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rochelle Wynne, Director, Western Sydney Nursing & Midwifery Research Centre, Western Sydney University Over the past week, we’ve seen a spike in the number of COVID-19 infections among health-care workers in Victoria. This includes a doctor at Melbourne’s St Vincent’s Hospital, one ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor and President Professor Paddy Nixon and Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics including the return to lockdown in Victoria, National Cabinet setting to slow the flow of Australian’s ...
We prefer our heroes untarnished. And few match the heroism of Winston Churchill. But a recent report in the Times reminds us of the inevitability of human frailty and the consequences of keeping it under wraps.During the second world war, Britain’s greatest single loss of life at sea was the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ou Yang, Research Fellow, University of Melbourne Donald Trump has ordered US federal agencies to bypass environmental protection laws and fast-track pipeline, highway and other infrastructure projects. Signing the executive order last month, the US president declared regulatory delays would hinder “our ...
SAFE CEO Debra Ashton says "The NZDIA has done the right thing, and we’re glad to see Bertram has been held to account over his actions. He should take this as an opportunity to right his wrongs and show that he takes animal welfare seriously." ...
Takuta Ferris, Te Tai Tonga candidate for the Māori Party, is urging government to place whānau first in the wake of announcements around Tiwai Point. “The declaration that one of the region's major employers the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is closing ...
Dietary Requirements is The Spinoff’s monthly podcast in which we eat, drink and talk about it too, with special thanks to Freedom Farms. This month, we’re joined by The Spinoff’s managing editor, mall rat and self-confessed food philistine Duncan Greive.On this month’s Dietary Requirements, the gang’s back in the studio, and ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Chart 1: United States and Australia rising. Chart by Keith Rankin. These charts look at Covid19 incidence in China (the most important first-wave country, with a limited second wave), Italy (the lead second-wave country), and USA and Australia (second-wave countries – drawing their caseload from Europe ...
The Government must listen to the Muslim community to rectify its failure to act in the past, says the Human Rights Commission. The Islamic Women’s Council of New Zealand (IWCNZ) submission to the Royal Commission of Inquiry was released this week. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, President, Australian Association for Professional & Applied Ethics. Senior Research Fellow, Moral philosophy, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Law Futures Centre., Griffith University Earlier this week, 150 high-profile authors, commentators and scholars signed an open letter in Harper’s magazine ...
You can’t keep a good woman down and Helen Clark is no exception. Her new appointment, as co-chair of a review of how the World Health Organisation handled the coronavirus pandemic, will test her formidable political skills. Sitting with her is Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former Liberian president, who handled the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Connor, Lecturer, James Cook University While many people may enjoy a game of backyard cricket, only a few go on to become elite professional batsmen in Australia. Cricket batting is example of what human skills can achieve. The fastest bowling delivery ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Baumgartner, Professor of Fisheries and River Management, Institute for Land, Water, and Society, Charles Sturt University This article is a preview of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a multimedia project launching on Monday July 13. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native ...
CEAC review of pre-election National’s “outline plan” just sent to us by Todd Muller 9/7/20 was actually his speech about his plan and was described as ‘an outline’. So in our review of National Party response to A Greener, Smarter Future; climate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Podger, Honorary Professor of Public Policy, Australian National University In Hidden Hand, China scholars Clive Hamilton and Marieke Ohlberg examine the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in Europe and North America in a similar way to how Hamilton dissected the CCP’s influence ...
“I can see why people are fed up, many are wondering how to clothe and feed their kids, or how they are going to pay their rent next week and still others are wondering what has happened to our beautiful Kiwi Way of Life. Well no party in parliament ...
Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk Sixty press freedom groups and civil society organisations, journalism institutions, filmmakers, and other supporters have formed a coalition in support of Maria Ressa and independent media in the Philippines, united around the call to #HoldTheLine. Today the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), the International Center for ...
National MP Michael Woodhouse also received Covid-19 patient emails from Michelle Boag, and deleted them when he realised she was implicated in a separate email scandal. National Party leader Todd Muller says no further MPs in his party received confidential information from Michelle Boag, after revelations today that Michael Woodhouse also ...
The government is extending border exceptions to allow overseas victims of the Christchurch mosque attacks and their support people to attend the shooter's sentencing. ...
Ever wanted to be Iron Man? Sam Brooks prefers Pepper Potts, but he had a great time stepping into the iron suit anyway.The first few moments of Iron Man VR are where it plays its hand, confidently and assuredly. You hold your palms out in front of you, and Iron ...
SAP has released to the public a policy paper, “Helping Kiwis get back to work: How data and technology can drive a bigger, better, faster economic recovery.” ...
A new poem by Jordan Hamel.Mermaids When you lose grip and start to drift.The first thing you’re supposed to do issteer into it or steer away? Not all mermaids are royaltysomeone needs to audit the oceanprovide cashflow projectionssome mermaids are actuallymiddle-aged accountants named Stephendreaming of a land-view holiday home. I saw a ...
Want to work for The Spinoff? We’re looking for someone to fill an exciting new role based in our Auckland office. We’re looking for a video and podcast content manager: an experienced writer or sub-editor with a strong understanding of social media to manage our video and podcast content across various channels. ...
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Daily review 20/03/2020 
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A little dark humour for this evening…
sapiens my arse
That like wise shit?
thats like we are mis-named
How long till lockdown?
What’s the trigger point
You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
There's not.
There are a range of circumstances where a range of greater restrictions might apply in a range of areas, from a small locality to nationwide. We are already facing many restrictions.
As the circumstances change we might face more restrictions, and as time progresses we might face fewer restrictions (e.g. good drug treatment becomes evident, or a vaccine, or maybe the disease profile changes because less debilitating strains become dominant).
All most of us can do is hold onto the seatbelt and watch the world roll past the windscreen, and hope the car safety specialists know what they're doing.
we are pretty much fucked then.
The trigger will be when we double our cases of ill every four days as it happens pretty much elsewhere and our hospitals are overwhelmed and without safety equipment as they are int he States, England, France, Italy and when we have people dying.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
California just shut down. NY is gonna be a basket case, Africa is gearing up to be very interesting. And we took way to long to even acknowledge that this thing could come here and wreck havoc and now are simply in mitigation mode. Containment is not possible anymore.
Several people today telling me about their family members in lock down. Those that have sleep outs are somewhat ok, those that are locked up with potentially ill people now have a great chance of falling ill themselves.
Maybe we are, maybe it's acrash we walk away from without a scratch, or with minor injuries.
Ed was worried that by now we'd have 4,000-odd cases, like Italy had after the same period.
We're just entering swordfish's estimated period for the first death (3-4 weeks from first confirmed case). Maybe as prognosticators the swordfish is mightier than the ed.
So I don't know. It's not a time-elapsed thing, it's a milestone that can happen at any time.
What I do know is that anyone who wants to survive 2020 might think of moderating their stress levels, because a popped subdural artery will kill you deader than a virus you have a good chance of not catching, even under the most pessimistic projections.
I'm not religious, but the Serenity Prayer has the right vibe. I just look for it in myself, rather than asking God for it.
mate, i am gonna go to hell in all the religions and i don't mind.
The reason we don't have '4000 odd cases' is that we don't test enough, and as per people those that call to get tested get an answer machine.
So that is a bit like the US today, this morning 9000 cases, this arvo 16.000 and California under shutdown.
As for moderating stress levels, well the government could help with that but so far they have done fuck all.
They could legalise weed by emergency degree, now that would help people to 'de-stress', (and yeah, no gummi bears, that would be too naughty and we can't have naughty), but thats not gonna happen.
They could ask the IRD to send money to people to stay at home,
but ….air planes or people….decision decisions…….
and we only have so much money, so planes it is.
But the booze lobby is wetting themselves, as are the banks, the supermarkets, and the gangs that sell the unregulated and untaxed drugs, and so on and so forth.
So don't worry McFlock, a few deserving people will survive and even get much richer, and no, never would i blame the government for not regulating and such, i shall blame capitalism as advised earlier.
If we have 4,000 cases, why don't we have all our ICU beds full of people with pneumonia etc that nobody has thought to check as being covid-19?
Or do we actually have 4,000 cases, but the strain with community release is more mild that what the rest of the world seems to be experiencing? In which case… actually, would that make us immune to the more lethal strains, too? Cowpx/smallpox style?
Well because as they say, not everyone will show symptoms, not everyone will get ill. That is my guess, and i would also assume that people stay home when they get ill initially and many will get better within a few days and not think twice about the funny bug they cought.
But a wee story from today. My partner usually always has a security guard with him when he goes to fix broken bank machines. That security guard has a girl live in the house who has a dry cough and high fever. So when he told this he was advised to call the Hotline number and see if she could get tested. Now she was not overseas etc etc and was told to do nothing. Stay home, isolate, oh, and her GP then told her to go and get a blood tests at the local labto make sure her blood issues don't act up. She takes a blood thinner. Now think of that. Isolate, but please go to the local clinic for a blood test. Stupidity and idiocy are us it seems.
I have a few friends in the states, many of whom had really weird 'flu' this winter. They are now wondering if they had the virus, and chances are they did, but it did not get tested, they got better blahblahblah.
So essentially we could already have many people carrying the virus, spreading it unwittingly by going to work, to shop, to live life.
And this is why i am so pissed at the government, they should know that, and they should give all of us that would like to go home and stay home the option and the financial security to do so. If you need to raise a 'solidarity tax" (done in Germany after the fall of the wall to pay for it all) then so be it. After all China did show us how it needs to be done.
But the best way to stop this thing in its tracks is shut down, for up to 8 -12 weeks – and again the earlier the better – and tell people to stay home.
Hence why i wanted a rent/mortgage/lease freeze, because at the end of the day, the thing that we don't want is sick people wandering the streets because they have been evicted, and half of our economy in the tank because all of our small businesses have to exhaust all other means before they apply to the on the dole – a potential 375.000 new beneficiaries.
they should have told us to go home, set up an ap, or web page to apply for your IRD payment and stay the fuck at home.
They did nothing.
Shutting the country down for three months over a disease that apparently has a hospitalisation rate of less than 1 in 4,000 (because we have this hoard of hidden cases that aren't going to hospital) seems excessive.
If we left it to cover 60% of the population over a few months, we could probably manage it relatively reasily, something like 500 patients in that timeframe?
BUT:
If it's got a 20% serious complication rate and the government has actually done very well at keeping the wolf from the door, good on the government.
Besides, if we just shut down, citizens might still come back from overseas after the shutdown. Or it jumps ship. Or gets in some other way. And we're back to where we are now.
i base my assumption on what i see overseas.
so unless we prove otherwise the most dire scenario is 3 month, the best case 4 weeks. Our saving grace is that we are at the bottom of the world, a small population and other then a few centres are not densly populated. . Disclaimer: I am german and thus always inclined to operate from the worst scenario cause if it is better then its a bonus.
I also would expect the virus to 'come ' back every now and then until we find a vaccine that works, or medication that works.
I personally would just like to know what about this virus it is that has our selected overlords of the planet so shit scared that they happily lock up people into their homes and crash the worlds economy while at it. (mind some republican had fun dumping stocks and making money…..so what do i kno 🙂 )
Ideally, we keep anyone out of the hospital that does not really need it, home care.
Japan basically told its people to go home, if you have a cough and fever stay home, only go to the hospital if you have a fever over 39.5 degree (101 f) for two days.
Even pull a Bojo, and let it run its course – controlled if we could. But i am not the one shutting down countries, closing borders, crashing the economy. I am just someone who is pissed that easter ain't gonna happen ( and as a chocolatier easter is the best! so much fun) i am pissed that my friends are scared of loosing the businesses that they have spend years building up, and i am pissed at this government not doing anything other tehn bailing our an airline who should have been left to die many years ago.
so my CT is simple as , they underfunded the health care sector so much that they actually can't deal with a really bad flu. They don't have the equipment, the masks, the gloves, the suits, etc etc etc and they are worried that if we all get ill at once and need health care we are gonna bankrupt what little health services we have.
What scares them isn't that it's a really bad flu.
What scares them is that it's worse than that.
You want to crash an economy? Constantly maintain 15,000 negative-pressure rooms that will be obsolete by the time they are used once in a hundred years. And do that for every possible, conceivable disaster. People complained enough about EQC levy, let alone volcano/pandemic/asteroid/hurricane levies on top of that.
this is my guess, and then they should come clean.
people may complain, they do that all the time 🙂 , but at the end of the day we need to finally understand and accept that we have the infrastructure that we pay for. So if we don't want to pay for hospitals, and equipment such as standard hazmat suits, masks etc, then we should not expect care to be given by nurses and doctors.
And maybe just maybe our government will grow some guts – no guts no glory as they say – and implement that wealth tax, that capital gains tax, because at the end of it, that is what they should do. And fuck it that maybe people don't like them. As it is now, they are alienating anyone who is not a beneficiaries (and even there i wold not hold my breath) or a CEO of a bankrupt air company.
Oh, fie on tax policy right now.
The govt has been upfront about the threat, and so has damned near everyone else. We all know the basic math if left unchecked: 60-odd% infection, ~1% case fatality rate, in the first wave. 25,000 NZers dead.
We also know the problem if the country is under heavy restriction, nobody in the streets, nobody at work, for three months. Millions of NZers without food or power over winter.
So we need to find a balance between the two, preferably staving off one while avoiding the other. That changes according to the situation, and that's why they have daily briefings.
So cgt and ubi debates, frankly, can hie themselves to a nunnery for the duration.
McFlock, we can discuss this endlessly, but we have a 50/50 chance of getting out of there lightly. Best case scenario.
and we have a 50% chance of a shit show and how are you going to keep people fed and warm and inside.
Its not conspiracy theory either as it is unfolding live in front of our eyes affecting directly our world. So roll the dice. Up its you, down its me.
Feeding NZ isn't the problem.
The problem is people making the extensive economic damage (which will kill people as badly as a pandemic) even worse by crapping their daks over the worst case scenario when there's no evidence we're any more likely to go there than get the best case scenario.
That means people inducing shortages for other people by panic-buying, when there would be enough for everyone if we all shopped normally.
US, UK, and most of Europe are well in the shit. Some of that is because they were hit early, before it was sequenced or we had tests. Some of it was because they had advisors tell them what they wanted to here, that the best thing was to do nothing. But we're an island. We have a non-porous border, and we had good notice and tests before we had our first case. We export food, and we have a sudden drop in tourists to feed. We're not going to starve. Other places might. But we will have a lot of businesses go under, especially if everyone's too terrified to go anywhere.
I went through what you're going through back in 2008.
It's tough. you pay all this tax, yet you won't get help until you basically crash and burn.
That's unfortunately just the way it works n NZ it's the proverbial ambulance of the cliff
i am gonna survive, due to me being tinny as and loath to take up loans i am good. The biggest worry is my lease – i spend quite a bit of money on getting my premises that i leased up to standard and licensed- but if i have too i can dip into my retirement savings. My lease also expires in December so i could just simply let it expire and see if i can turn my garage into a kitchen and get it lisenced. At least then the lease i pay goes towards my mortgage.
I am pissed for the others on my block, the hair dresser, the garage, the bakery, the dairy, the take away, i am pissed for the little businesses in my town. I am pissed for the young dudes that slaved for years working for others, doing the night market to get enough money up to open their own little joint – you know just enough money for teh bills and for them so they too can have a live and a family and a place to live.
there is no ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, there is a pack of paracetamol and when it hurts to much you apply at winz for a one pill to kill some of the pain. And frankly i rather hang myself then ever give myself over to Winz.
Well tax ain't insurance is it.
So i would venture a guess pretty soon, a week maybe?
Could you outline the logic behind your assessment that we're going to go from a few cases known to have come in from overseas and reasonably well isolated, to our hospitals being overwhelmed, in the next week?
From what i have seen is that once the testing goes underway the number of infected people jumps high very quickly very fast.
See the US. From 1 on Jan 23, to 15 on March 3rd, to 16000 on March 20th.
At that stage you have a choice, let it run, or shut down. Shut down is needed if you don't want to kill your health system, and by killing i mean that. Doctors, Nurses etc in the US and in England and France and elsewhere do not have the equipment to keep themselves save and a few doctors in all these countries and nurses are having the virus and in NY it appears that some of them work.
So we had 28 yesterday, 39 today, 50+ tomorrow, 80+ two days, 120 odd in three days, by the time we reach Wednesday next week it could be quite a few people.
And believe me i don't want a shut down. I can't afford it.
We're seeing a big spike in people who've been infected overseas because lots of people have come back here from infected countries. Exponential growth in that would require exponential growth in numbers returning from overseas. For your growth estimates to apply, we'd first need evidence of community transmission within NZ, which is currently non-existent. That community transmission will turn up, and that's when it will get serious, but it hasn't turned up yet.
It is not 'my' growth scenario
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/government-coronavirus-measures-based-on-infection-doubling-rate-of-4-days-not-the-5-it-said-writes-robert-peston/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51970815
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australia-coronavirus-cases-appear-to-be-doubling-every-three-days–c-747116
its been in the news for a few weeks.
You think there's a single definitive trigger point, or a single "lockdown" state?
Lol, good question, we can't even agree on what a lockdown would consist of at my workplace, let alone the whole fucking country.
If the virus gets into the population with no links to recent overseas travel.
It would probably be introduced step by step as the need arises. Hopefully there will be no full blown lockdown as has occurred in Italy.
We can do no more than cross our fingers and follow instructions – washing hands, keeping physical distance of 2 metres (so hard to remember) and generally being sensible.
Edit: oops McFlock beat me to it and rather more colourfully. 🙂
Yes, we're all as clueless as the next person, this is a fairly unprecedented thing, if 6 months ago someone suggested we get ready and prepare for such a thing would anyone here taken it seriously? I just saw a G W Bush speech from when he was president saying such a pandemic could happen. Just calm down, our experts and leaders are just human like the rest of, trying their best, in a very strange and ever changing situation. Are we fucked? Quite possibly, or maybe like always, we will adapt, and cope. I'm a working wage earning solo father with school age kids living in South Dunedin, I just cant think of anything else to do but look after my kids and I, keep an eye on my elderly neighbours, and hope for the best.
I dunno, I'm here right now and I still can't take seriously the fact that the first thing people hoarded globally was toilet paper.
Good luck to you and yours.
I think the supermarkets have acted superbly actually! They could be price gouging, they could not bother with the rationing, because money, but there are still specials, the staff are excellent. My kids schools are calm and communicating with us parents, my work place has appropriate safety gear and hand sanitizer at every entry way, as do most business places.
totally agree,
the supermarket staff at our locals here are epic. Polite, smiling, (even tho they are worried themselves), helpful and so patient.
They should be given huge bonuses, hopefully.
and teachers, and cleaners!
yep, and nurses and doctors and your local shops that all try to keep it together and keep a semblance of normal.
Chatting to an Australian nurse, their leave has all been cancelled and they can't travel interstate. They're very calm, the situation changes every 4 hours, there are new guidelines for hospital staff that if they catch it once, they go on leave, as they have found overseas the more often you catch it the higher the chance of mortality. She said "info on infection control measures in health care seem to be implementing faster over there, that's def in NZs favour". Though they are getting ready for numbers to dramatically increase in the next few weeks.
yes, well if it attacks the lungs every single time at one stage the lung is done for.
so that might be what they are so scared of. It will kill us eventually.
As for the nurses? Increase their pay. If they ask where the money should come from they can tax Mike Hoskins, Gareth Morgan, and all the other tax avoiders a wealth tax. You know, to show solidarity to those that move the boat forward.
Centre City New World has a big display down by the deli section tonight – full pallets of baked beans, tinned spagghetti, and canned fruit salad.
What people were overbuying over the last week lol
We're the same here, had loo paper on special for a week, then canned tomatoes got bought out, now they are on special. The computerised stock control must be causing the supermarkets huge grief. At least all the runs are on non-perishables, apart from bread.
Our frozen veges were sold out today, be some good deals going there in a week or so.
I wonder if the stock control programs base loss-leader specials on demand surges? I just thought the pricing was a little bit of snark 🙂
I did notice sundried tomatos were empty tonight. Upper middle class must be panicking lol
Something not well noted is how much of the pandemic in China was in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei. And how effective this was quarantined from the rest of China.
yep.
And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same draconian travel bans domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
Here's a bit of background on the incompetent/ compromised WHO director
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/487851-china-and-the-whos-chief-hold-them-both-accountable-for-pandemic
Will leave this here
The email address is nhccselfisolation@health.govt.nz.
Contacted council today re overseas freedom campers, they are going to look into finding out which ones are recent arrivals and not self isolating.
A friend spoke with some freedom campers today and a number of them had decided it was safer in NZ than to return to home.
and all incoming emails will be answered within the SLA of 24 hours :)?
For the employed of us, the real helplessness starts on Monday.
All Auckland Council group staff are working from home, and of course the Skype will be intermittent at best.
All tourist companies will be putting their people on leave or just firing them.
Even the companies with people who are building massive infrastructure and can't work from home will get very close to being sent home.
So many of the suppliers will go down, from the caterers to the hairdressers to retail to travel.
Auckland central is a ghost town.
Yeah, our BCP boldly states people can work from home because we have Office365, SharePoint and mostly web-based specialist apps. This week have been talking with managers living in rural idylls with "broadband" that's more like dial-up, staff who can't remember how old their home computer is but it's more than 10 years, and one guy who doesn't even own a mobile phone, let alone a computer. Most I wouldn't trust to find an application on their computer that didn't have a desktop icon, let alone download and set up Skype for Business. My official assessment is that we meet the requirements of the BCP to a significant extent, my unofficial one is that we are so, so screwed.
Agreed.
And by the way may I say
Fucking Sharepoint.
Air NZ will be significantly downsizing, they've asked staff to take redundancy, reduced hours, or take unpaid leave. I guesstimate 50%+ headcount reductions (from 10,000 staff to around 5K)