Daily review 20/09/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, September 20th, 2023 - 21 comments
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21 comments on “Daily review 20/09/2023 ”

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  1. Bearded Git 1
    20 September 2023 at 6:12 pm

    Latest TV1 poll tonight

    Lab 27 Gr 12 TPM 3

    Nat 37 ACT 12 NZF 5

    Lab/Gr/TPM 42 Nat/ACT 49 if NZF get 4.9

    Still possible for the Left. Interesting that the Nats went down 2 and both Greens and ACT went up 2, Lab down 1.

    • observer 1.1
      20 September 2023 at 6:19 pm

      Most changes insignificant, but in the superficial poll-driven media world, NZF at 5% will keep them asking the obvious question to Luxon, and the feeble non-answer (repeated daily) does National no good at all.

      • Bearded Git 1.1.1
        20 September 2023 at 6:31 pm

        I'm not so sure. The Nats should be going up if people really wanted them. The Greens are doing really well. Nobody can rule out Lab 30 Gr 14 TPM 4 and a Left government.

        • Anne 1.1.1.1
          20 September 2023 at 6:55 pm

          My calculations too BG. It's not over until the fat…. etc. As several here have pointed out, it will come down to turnout. The conservative always turn out to vote. They have more assets to protect and they have easier access to polling places. Their lives don't revolve around finding enough money to keep themselves fed and housed. The poor are often too heavily burdened to even think about voting. Its a sad state of affairs but it never changes because the conservatives don't want it to change.

          Nothing ever changes under the sun.

        • Belladonna 1.1.1.2
          20 September 2023 at 7:51 pm

          Luxon and Hipkins both at 23% approval rating as PM. It seems that no one is really enthusiastic about either of them.

    • Belladonna 1.2
      20 September 2023 at 7:49 pm

      I think that most of the changes are within the margin of error (i.e. not a significant/meaningful difference from the last poll)

      While it is, indeed, still possible for the Left to win – the trend of all of the polls is against it. Of course, they could all be entirely wrong….

      The polling period is 16-19th of September, so within the negative evaluation period for Luxon/Willis' proposed budget. Indicating that this doesn't seem to be a big issue for voters (or at least voters willing to consider National).

  2. Patricia Bremner 2
    20 September 2023 at 6:34 pm

    Read somewhere (Stuff? ) that Banks Peninsular has 93% enrolled to vote. Last Election 2020 was 89%, so perhaps not a low turnout coming?

  3. fisiani 3
    20 September 2023 at 6:53 pm

    Wellington Central is not a Labour certainty despite a near 19,000 majority

  4. Kat 4
    20 September 2023 at 7:29 pm

    The 2020 election miss……….

    "The polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points. They were underestimating Labour by 3.7 points. The Green and Māori parties were also underestimated (1.1 and 0.7 points, respectively)……"

    https://theconversation.com/this-election-year-nz-voters-should-beware-of-reading-too-much-into-the-political-polls-198508

    • Patricia Bremner 4.1
      20 September 2023 at 7:52 pm

      I personally think the polls are meant to put the left off voting.

      If the left vote, the left wins.

    • Michael P 4.2
      21 September 2023 at 7:56 am

      Isn't that because of the polling method (contacting people via landline)?

      More National Party / ACT party voters would tend to have landlines because in general they are older / more conservative / wealthier, etc. So any poll conducted by landline is not going to be an accurate representation of voters and is far more likely (probably a certainty) to be over representative of the right.

      As an aside, in the 40 odd years I have been allowed to vote, I still have never been contacted, approached and / or asked to participate in any political poll whatsoever. Neither have any of my friends and acquaintances whom I have discussed this with, not one.

  5. Cricklewood 5
    20 September 2023 at 9:08 pm

    I really hope this appeal isnt successful Nzherald

    Attacking someone based on the colour of there sweater deserves the longest sentence possible purely on the basis it will keep these thugs from assulting someone else for a little longer.

  6. Muttonbird 6
    20 September 2023 at 9:34 pm

    Transcribed:

    A third of New Zealanders rent, and Mr. Speaker, we know that those New Zealanders spend more of their income disproportionately on older, colder, and moldier properties. And in my patch Auckland Central, it's more than half my constituents.

    We also know, based on written questions to the Minister, the average tenancy in this country is approximately 16 months.

    If you want to talk about people's capacity to build their community, their physical and mental health, a sense of hope and security and planning into the future, you need a stable home.

    Will be voting NZ Greens this time, for the first time, because of this woman. Any vote to the right is a direct attack on a third of New Zealanders.

    https://twitter.com/NZGreens/status/1704315926538260668

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