Daily review 24/11/2020

22 comments on “Daily review 24/11/2020 ”

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1. Phillip ure 1

   24 November 2020 at 5:51 pm

   Re the housing-bubble ..all talk of it being a bubble..that must eventually burst…seems to have ceased….do the silent ones think it will just keep getting bigger and bigger..?…to a 2 million average..?..to a three million average..?…I don't think so..eh..?..so that means the bubble will burst..it's just a matter of when..all it will take is for interest rates to move up a bit…and a lot of people will be down the gurgler,..and it will roll on..in fact given the uncertainties of these times..climate change just around the corner being just one destabilising influence..signing up to a 40 year financial commitment would seem to be almost hysterical optimism…good luck with that..!
   • Duncan 1.1

     24 November 2020 at 9:33 pm

     I saw one ray of hope today.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123475071/freight-congestion-pushing-up-prices-and-costing-companies

     If freight restrictions do push up the price of imported goods, maybe inflation goes up and interest rates go up and the speculators feel a little burn.

     I have no doubt the government will just remove those inflating items from the CPI so nothing to see here.
     • Pat 1.1.1

       24 November 2020 at 9:38 pm

       seen the dollar lately?
       • Duncan 1.1.1.1

         24 November 2020 at 9:54 pm

         I presume you mean NZD:USD, and yes I have.
         The dollar means nothing to me. Or anyone for that matter.
         And yes it is rising and so import prices may be cheaper, but you are missing the point that a drop in supply of imported goods is going to drive up the price of those goods in NZ.
         What point are you trying to make?
         Inflation in NZ is not measured in USD.
         • Pat 1.1.1.1.1

           24 November 2020 at 10:03 pm

           deflation is imported just as easily as inflation…those goods and freight are paid for in USD
           • Duncan 1.1.1.1.1.1

             24 November 2020 at 10:10 pm

             Pat if imported goods cannot make it to NZ because of freight issues, then those items will be in short supply, and so the price of those goods in NZ rises.

             And the CPI has been manipulated to increase the weighting of those cheap imported goods.

             The fact the NZD to USD has risen from 67 to 70 makes no difference if there is a shortage of imported goods that makes the price rise 50%.
             • Pat …

               24 November 2020 at 10:26 pm

               the temporary freight issues will be resolved and the RBNZ will look through that….the trajectory of the dollar is in the opposite direction to that which the RBNZ desire and that will feed into their decision around interest rates…no need to manipulate the CPI (any further).

               Imported deflation and increased unemployment from an impacted export sector will increase the instability of the finance sector…the RBNZ are not going to look through that.
               • Duncan …

                 24 November 2020 at 10:37 pm

                 The temporary freight issues will not be solved in the near future.

                 Where does that come from, the vaccine? That will not solve any freight issue within 2 years.

                 The RBNZ does not have a mandate to "look through that".

                 And they have no mandate to worry about exchange rates.

                 Your last point is valid, but you still ignore the fact the primary mandate of the RBNZ is to keep inflation around 2%.

                 Or are you just saying the role of the RBNZ is political which is what I said in the first place.
                 • Pat …

                   25 November 2020 at 8:03 am

                   https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/monetary-policy-handbook/Monetary-Policy-Handbook.pdf?revision=4922a7fe-d539-4cab-a0d6-9bd47fb152fa
   • Jester 1.2

     24 November 2020 at 11:36 pm

     My parents remember when milk was 4c a pint 600ml (and came in glass bottles) . Milk will never be that cheap again.

     They also bought a house in Auckland for around $50,000, they will never buy another house for $50,000.
2. joe90 2

   24 November 2020 at 5:59 pm

   heh

   https://twitter.com/champnella/status/1328808152561721345
3. Tiger Mountain 3

   24 November 2020 at 6:03 pm

   “Robbo” surely takes out the “Rubber Spine” award for the rest of the year at least. He has written a polite letter (not undermining the RB’s independence you see) to the Reserve Bank Governor asking him to tame the housing market a tad, to be added to the bank’s targets…if it is not too much trouble.

   Maaayte…you might want to check out some video from the weekend of 17 Oct…there was this election see, and the NZ Labour Party is the unencumbered Government of New Zealand for three years. So please, preferably tomorrow, do a bit of BLOODY GOVERNING.
   • Duncan 3.1

     24 November 2020 at 9:25 pm

     Thanks Tiger for starting the conversation.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300166767/why-grant-robertsons-letter-to-adrian-orr-is-a-big-deal-and-what-happens-next

     This sums up exactly why the government doesn't give a shit about house prices. If they did, they would already have done something. And now they are pretending to do something by starting a "discussion".

     How convenient. And by the time that discussion is finished, house prices up another 20%.

     All governments since the 1990s have been complicit in escalating house prices.

     Jim Bolger and Jenny Shipley removed housing costs from the CPI in the 1990s which meant housing no longer appeared in the CPI to any meaningful degree and that meant there was no government responsibility, or RBNZ responsibility, for controlling a ponzi scheme.

     The government claims the RBNZ is independent, yet the government controls the make up of the CPI which sets interest rates which sets house prices (among other things, but that is the no. 1 factor). When the price of meat goes up, people stop buying it, and it is removed from the CPI. A global glut of olives, hey let's put those in the CPI. Latest iPhone down in price due to further exploitation, that goes in.

     It is BS to say the government doesn't have influence over the RBNZ as they control what makes up the basket of goods in the CPI.

     So house prices spiral out of control with increased immigration, urban limits and RMA restrictions.

     And the government and RBNZ have no accountability.

     So, when today, I read that inflation might rise, not because of the increased demand for iPhones, but the fact they cannot freight those things here, I saw some light at the end of the tunnel.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123475071/freight-congestion-pushing-up-prices-and-costing-companies

     The RBNZ may be forced to increase interest rates to counter inflation caused by all the BS that has been lumped into the CPI to keep it artificially low, and so the property market retracts faster than we have ever seen before.

     With the added benefit that our NZ produce, which should be the mainstay of the CPI, but has been excluded due to unaffordability, suddenly becomes the go to food source.

     I will be watching as the basket of goods is suddenly changed to exclude all those iPhones, and suddenly includes those other staples of life like strawberries, which growers cannot get rid of, if they can even pick them.

     Neoliberal economics is a disaster. We must get rid of it.
     • xanthe 3.1.1

       25 November 2020 at 8:16 am

       "So house prices spiral out of control with increased immigration, urban limits and RMA restrictions."

       ahhhh you forgot the one thing thats actually causing house prices to rise … private generation of capital for profit ie the banks
     • greywarshark 3.1.2

       25 November 2020 at 11:34 am

       Neoliberal economics is a disaster. We must get rid of it.

       Your ideas on this? Anybody? Without blood running in the streets or perhaps the prisons full of people on three days remand holding followed by home detention.
       • roblogic 3.1.2.1

         27 November 2020 at 12:33 pm

         Neoliberalism is tied to the Establishment now so it’s gonna take a lot of effort to shift the Overton window leftward. More democracy is the cure for rampant out of control predatory capitalism. And by democracy I mean massive state support of all the tattered remnants of the welfare state, health, education, mass media, and all the things we take for granted in a civil society. Because when people aren’t desperately poor and scrapping each other for the basics like food and shelter, they will feel secure enough to show actual kindness to one another (as opposed to the empty govt slogan)
4. joe90 4

   24 November 2020 at 6:29 pm

   The stats will be worse here.

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/23/the-outlook-for-older-women-in-australia-is-dire-but-no-one-seem-to-care
   • Sabine 4.1

     24 November 2020 at 7:13 pm

     Some of us raised these issues before the election, were maybe a bit of pressure on the Labour "do nothing much" Party might have had some impact, but it at the time people were to afraid of the National 'Fucked up beyond believe" Party and their female leader who could/would not get elected Dog catcher anywhere in the country but Papakura.

     Now, its after this election, and these poor unfortunate women – young and old – here in NZ that have poverty and homelessness to look forward too, are simply shit outta luck.

     go vote Labour they said,

     they will fix it they said,

     the party of Mickey Savage, they said.

     And then they elected a Quota woman cause their menfolk were unpalatable, but the men still reign, the women just communicates.

     Vote Labour, get fucked the same way as if one voted for National.

     Happy to not have voted Labour.
5. KSaysHi 5

   24 November 2020 at 7:30 pm

   Shocking. Gassing prisoners with pepper spray while they are locked in their cells so they won't resist. Forcing prisoners to show used period products before they are given more.

   Yes, it's NZ.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300166013/gassed-in-their-cells-begging-for-food-at-auckland-womens-prison
   • Phillip ure 5.1

     24 November 2020 at 8:06 pm

     Rnz reporting kelvin davis saying physical force etc against prisoners 'is lawful'….
   • Nic181 5.2

     24 November 2020 at 9:07 pm

     Prisoners who refuse instructions get a warning; “this is your last opportunity to move peacefully or force will be used against you. Including the use of pepper spray.”Corrections staff are workers doing a very difficult job. They have a right to go home without injury. In situations which may become violent they are required, by law, to wear personal protection equipment. If a prisoner sees a team of geared up staff and ignores a clear warning, who is responsible? All efforts are made to resolve an issue before it come to this! I’m retired now but I’ve been there. Never in a women’s prison, though the same processes operate.
     • greywarshark 5.2.1

       25 November 2020 at 11:46 am

       I remember that ECT (electroconvulsive therapy) used to be used to control non-compliant out-of-control people down to suicidal and also merely stubborn and 'naughty' people. It went on for ages. Then got stopped, perhaps by tranquiliser pills.

       Perhaps there is something in the air in these institutions that causes harsh behaviour on both sides. Perhaps in most cases it could be shorted out by trying a different sort of shock treatment, something unusual, kind and soft to break down the fury and desperation. Without the officer putting her or himself in danger of course.

       Lately prison officers have said that the conditions in the prison are more than they can bear, and that their fellow staff are the worst. Going private does not mean getting better, it just means that torture can happen at the end of Pinocchio's nose, grown longer for more effectiveness in hiding government ineptitude, lack of commitment and lies.

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