Election watch 2014

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 694 comments
Categories: election 2014 - Tags:

With over 700,000 early votes and with voting today appearing to be heavy (at least out west) the signs are that turnout will be good.

The polls suggest that New Zealand First may hold the balance of power although if the Conservatives make it over 5% Key and National will have plenty of options.

But are the polls right?  Time will tell …

Live results are available from the Electoral Commission Website.

20:00: The early smaller and rural booths are *not* encouraging for National.

  • National 48.32 (if they were on track for their polls they’d be way over 50%)
  • Labour 23.86%
  • Greens 10.04
  • NZ First 9.10%
  • IMP 1.53%
  • Maori party 1.38%

21:15: Looking better for National. They are past early booths, early booths, and much of the rural booths counted. This is the point that we’d expect to see Nationals vote to drop (like NZ First is)

  • National 48.91%
  • Labour 23.80%
  • Greens 9.98%
  • NZ First 8.97%
  • Conservatives 4.27%
  • IMP 1.27%
  • Maori party 1.22%

21:45: Damnit I think National have a easy win.

694 comments on “Election watch 2014”

  1. karol 1

    Yay! And we are off! Watching Maori TV.

  2. mickysavage 2

    Im live blogging from the New Lynn community centre. Could be an interesting night …

    Turnout appears to have been good and there was a pile of early votes.

  3. Clashman 3

    Woah, that preliminary result on the Electoral Commission website is pretty scary!
    Whats that about?

    • weka 3.1

      depends on which electorates and polling areas they counted first. They’ll be the advance votes too.

      • weka 3.1.1

        “With 6.4% of the vote counted, Mike Williams – on TVNZ – suggests he’d expect to see National further ahead – because small rural electorates get counted first.”

        http://thewireless.co.nz/themes/election/twvote-election-night-live

        • There’s that, but also consider that the advance votes seem to be a lot more balanced than the usual preliminary results, so the fact that it’s not 50%+ National votes at the beginning will be confusing for people who’ve followed the count from previous elections. It’ll start getting indicative at 80% counted or so, and the Left won’t do well until the big city electorates start reporting in.

          • weka 3.1.1.1.1

            But wouldn’t the advanced votes be similarly spread as today’s votes? ie the proportion of big city votes will be similar by the time all advance votes are counted (round about now).

  4. lurgee 4

    It took Mike Hosking 4 minutes to say something stupid, speculating that Labour ‘might’ increase its share of the vote from the 19% of early votes he thinks they got.

  5. ploompi 5

    Been lurking. Thought I’d say kia ora and ta very much for this site.

    to-day’s song; I’m dreaming of a red-green landslide.
    tomorrow’s song; ding dong the gits are gone

  6. lurgee 6

    Nats started on 54%. Already down to 50%. If they continue to plummet like this, they could end up on 40%!

  7. Lanthanide 7

    Conservatives aren’t doing well, hovering at 4.6-4.7%, given the right seems to be favoured in the early votes (as the talking heads are saying), and given NZFirst comparative 9.6%, looks like Cons might have a slow drift down.

    Also on TV1’s vote banner, ALCP has got 0.3%, kicking UF off the banner (last seen with 0.2%).

    • Zorr 7.1

      If Colin gets in, can I turn in my Earth citizenship? Because at that point I don’t think I want to live on this planet any more… 😛

    • lurgee 7.2

      In the interests of democracy, I’d rather the Conservatives got 5.1% rather than 4.9%. I hate to see votes wasted, even when they are for ridiculous parties. I’d much prefer to see then get no votes at all, of course.

  8. ScottGN 8

    Are we seeing advance votes on the telly banners or early returns from electorate booths?

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      Hard to say. The early votes are supposed to be counted first, but the electoral commission is just reporting the current total progress, which is reflected on the TV banners. The commission isn’t breaking it down into early votes vs on-the-date votes.

      So at this time of the night, the majority of the votes would probably be early votes, but there’s no way to know what the breakdown is.

      • lurgee 8.1.1

        Hosking just said the advance votes will be ‘dumped’ at about 8.30, so what we’re seeing is from booths.

        • You_Fool 8.1.1.1

          As far as I can see on the electoral commission website the overall results being reported include the advance votes

          Total Votes
          Total Votes Counted: 632,557
          Special Votes: 70,155

          Advance Votes
          Total Votes Counted: 617,363
          Special Votes: 68,483

        • David H 8.1.1.2

          According to the Maori Channel they are the advanced votes. Hosking couldn’t find his own ass with both hands a Map and a Flashlight

  9. lurgee 9

    How much ground will Labour make up as the votes come in? In 2005, I remember they started 10% behind, and made up 1% of the gap for every 10% of the vote than came in. Of course, that didn’t happen in 2008 and 2011. And with the left vote a bit more dispersed among other parties, it might be hard to spot the trend.

  10. ScottGN 10

    NZ First is clocking up some big party vote counts in National held seats.

  11. weka 11

    Māori TV commenters giving Harawira a hard time for KDC.

    • weka 11.1

      Not sure if I can handle Tau Henare all night though.

    • karol 11.2

      Harawira was behind Davis when they started talking about it. Then as they were talking, Hone took the lead. The Maori Party is only leading in one electorate – Wairiki.

    • lurgee 11.3

      Māori TV commenters giving Harawira a hard time for KDC.

      Quite right, too. Cost him my vote.

      • weka 11.3.1

        Yes, but you appear to be ok with the left losing the election.

        • lurgee 11.3.1.1

          Er … I voted Green.

          Off you go and try not to make too much of an idiot of yourself.

          • weka 11.3.1.1.1

            Speaking of idiots,

            In the interests of democracy, I’d rather the Conservatives got 5.1% rather than 4.9%.

            You said it dude.

            • Matthew Whitehead 11.3.1.1.1.1

              Uh, I would rather lose if we should have lost with the conservative votes being counted. We’ve been burned by losing parties to the threshold before, (it was NZF, but still…) so overall I think it would be better if we lost this election, but had a fairer system overall. If we need 4.5% of the vote to be wasted to win, it’s not worth winning IMO.

              • weka

                All very nice theoretically and idealistically, but if the Conservatives get 5%, enable a right wing govt, do you really think National will lower the threshold? Catch 22

            • lurgee 11.3.1.1.1.2

              87,000 people voted Conservative but are being denied representation. Less than 5,000 people voted for United Future and they have an MP.

              You’re okay with that?

              Forget democratic idealism for a moment. Can you not see how this sort of distortion could hurt the left?

      • David H 11.3.2

        @ Lurgee. Gave him Mine so that’s that neutralised.

  12. karol 12

    Greens just overtook NZF.

  13. Lanthanide 13

    iPredict’s had a massive fuck-up. They froze all the political stocks before midnight yesterday, and they haven’t unfrozen most of them yet!

    Election 2011 was their busiest time ever…

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Hmmmmm interesting. BTW this is exactly what they will do to the financial system when some major skullduggery/screw up happens behind the scene. Bye bye to your electronic wealth.

  14. weka 14

    Please tell me that RNZ aren’t using Farrar AND Charles Finney 🙁

  15. lurgee 15

    My son said he wanted to vote for John Key. He said that Key looks like a skunk and Cunliffe looks like a beaver, and skunks are stinkier and thus better …

  16. ScottGN 16

    Early results from Mangere and Manukau East look like showing that National’s foray into South Auckland was nothing more than hubris.

  17. weka 17

    Anyone know what this is about?

    Less than 6 votes taken in Voting Places: 150

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      150 booths around the country which took fewer than 6 votes.

    • Lanthanide 17.2

      For some reason the electoral commission likes to keep a separate tally for this. I think for polling places with 7 or more votes, you can get the detailed party vote count when the official results are released. But for booths with 6 votes or less, they don’t publish the detail, because it’s perceived that you can find out the votes cast by individuals, violating the privacy of their vote.

  18. Jimmie 18

    Hmmmm Labour on 23.5%. No comments yet about dodgy polls?

    Looks like the saviour has tanked 4% off Labour’s core vote despite a very kind msm giving him a free run for the last 6 weeks.

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    • Colonial Viper 18.1

      OK that’s not a great start for Labour, but neither is it a real problem. That number will keep climbing and climbing over the evening. I would have preferred a starting point around 25.0-25.5%.

    • Lanthanide 18.2

      Greens have just slowly risen to 10%, so I wouldn’t worry too much about Labour’s vote at this point.

      Conservatives look fucked though, as per my post at #7 above. Hahaha.

      • Colonial Viper 18.2.1

        I’ll be ready to celebrate in another hour or so re: the CONS….not confident about it yet.

    • lprent 18.3

      Early vote counts tend to favour conservatives of all types and later larger urban booths tend to favour the left. So far the only conservative party showing up better than the polls is NZ First.

  19. gobsmacked 19

    It’s not looking like a good result for the opposition so far, but you can get some solace by refreshing this site. Every few seconds, the National percentage goes down.

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

    • lurgee 19.1

      That doesn’t seem to be working now. National’s share is going UP, minute by minute.

      The horror! The horror!

      • gobsmacked 19.1.1

        Yes, I was fooled into thinking it was situation normal – rural booths first, bigger urban ones later. No – it’s been overwhelmingly advance votes counted.

        Now it’s likely to go up and then down for National. Probably not down enough.

  20. SPC 20

    The advance votes indicate, if replicated in the on the day voting, that National will do better than in 2011.

  21. ScottGN 21

    I’m getting a bit frustrated with TV3 analysis – they’re offering opinions on electorate counts with no real context around which booths have reported in what are now quite large MMP seats.

    • lurgee 21.1

      Can’t be worse than TV1. Mike Hosking just told us it looks like it is a ‘disaster’ for the Greens. He just can’t help himself. He needs to go.

    • weka 21.2

      That’s the MSM, dumb fucks. Why bother educating and informing the public when you can spread misinformation and prejudice instead.

      • ScottGN 21.2.1

        In other countries they can tell you which booths in which part of the constituency have reported and then make an assessment on final result. The fact is that telly in NZ is nothing more than entertainment these days.

  22. Lanthanide 22

    Looks like Peter Dunne is going to be an overhang.

    ALCP has got more party vote than UF.

  23. lurgee 23

    GO AWAY MIKE HOSKING.

  24. newsense 24

    Josie Pagani and Matthew Hooton METAPHORICALLY (sp. omg!) mutually masturbating on TV3.

    Was almost impressed with Josie during the campaign. But damn is she poisonous. She has had more coverage with her BS than actual Labour candidates.

    Oh the Left Bloc strategy Stuart Nash and Kelvin Davis. BS BS BS!

    how were Labour anti-jobs or anti-work. FU Pagani you poisonous bitch.

  25. bearded git 25

    nash has napier i heard

  26. Lanthanide 26

    When they had John Key on earlier, making his visit outside the gate so as not to be out-done by Cunliffe, he was very jittery and nervous, showing real emotion in a fashion that well rarely see.

    I think he should be worried. At the time he was out the National vote was just a smidge over 50%, having dropped from 55%.

  27. phant0m 27

    you lost

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      National’s best hope is for Conservatives to get over 5%. If they do, the left is pretty much shot.

      That’s looking unlikely at the moment, so it’ll be up to the whims of Winston.

  28. weka 28

    All Māori seats are swinging back to Labour on the party vote (Māori TV commentary).

  29. ScottGN 29

    Not much from West Auckland yet.

  30. Harry Holland 30

    TV3 saying that the first 17.9% is ENTIRELY advanced votes – not the small rural electorates. This is not good.

    • ScottGN 30.1

      That also means then that it’s not any of the big city booths either so cuts both ways.

      • Harry Holland 30.1.1

        yeah but it never is early on. We’re used to the right falling away as the evening progresses, but my gut speculation was that Nat voters were less likely to cast advanced votes? suggesting they can only go up from 48% – hoping I’m wrong.

        • Lanthanide 30.1.1.1

          Past advance voting has favoured National, that seems to be the case again here.

          Note also that the advance votes are probably going to capture a fair share of the rural voters this time too – they can vote when they’re next in town, rather than having to make a special trip on election day.

        • ScottGN 30.1.1.2

          I don’t know why Nat voters would be any less likely to cast an advance vote. One thing I would say is that much has been made of Uni and Polytech advance voting (expected to favour the left) but it seems to me that many of those votes (if made on campus) will be special votes (in other words they’re voting in a different electorate to the one their uni or polytech is in) and they won’t have been counted yet (as far as I know). Someone might be able to clarify this?

    • lurgee 30.2

      I think TV3 are wrong. Why would they be released in dribs and drabs? And even Mike Hosking couldn’t get it quite so spectacularly wrong, surely.

  31. lurgee 31

    Greens are in ‘Desperate trouble’ according to Hosking. I think I might be complaining, tommorrow, when the hangover clears …

  32. newsense 32

    Carmel a little on the hop. Lisa Owen has been the journo star of the campaign. Thought she would have done a better job of hosting the TV3 debate actually.

    Hmm. Who is the Joyce equivalent in the Labour party? It’s not Mallard, Robertson or Little.

  33. ScottGN 33

    Be good if the commentators could shrug off their First Past the Post mentality and look at our MMP environment.

    • phant0m 33.1

      you guys don’t want to believe do you?

      • ScottGN 33.1.1

        I believe the facts in front of me all right. But it’s time for the commentators to stop doing a national versus Labour FPTP analysis and look at the way the left is constructed these days.

        • locus 33.1.1.1

          Indeed!

          The next two years the leftwing parties and the ‘aware’ majority of NZers will begin to assert their demands for respect, consideration and honesty in politics.

          It will be downhill and humiliating for jk and other manipulators in the nact party, as more and more evidence comes to light of the abuse of power, laws that have been broken and lies told to NZ.

          I’m really very sorry about the potential damage that the nats may be able to inflict on our country before their loyal voters begin to realise….

        • Yep. And also they need to know a bit more about how the counting functions and the likely party vote splits by electorate.

          It was depressing though realising that there hasn’t been any significant shift from the early count to the late count like there usually is, though. I wonder if that was down to the advance vote, the rain, or just plain the left not showing up again.

          • weka 33.1.1.2.1

            I thought that was very weird. The %s stayed pretty much the same all evening, except of a bit of fluctuation with NZF and the GP.

            • lprent 33.1.1.2.1.1

              The advance vote analysis will be interesting.

              But I think that the vote analysis in the polynesian and asian communities in South Auckland will be even more interesting. That vote from the large polling booths there is what usually produces that late swing. Something changed and I suspect it was a low turnout.

              Both are communities that value stability in their leaders. I suspect that the idiotic wellington led antics about Labour leadership over the last 3 years cost Labour their support.

  34. Colonial Viper 34

    Toby Manhire tweeted that almost all (95%) of the votes counted so far have been ADVANCED votes 😀

  35. Pete 35

    Still 100k advance votes to count. Probably from the big university and urban booths.

  36. gobsmacked 36

    I think “Notices and Features” should change the wording on the post. It’s clearly no longer true. Advance votes have been counted first.

    Let’s face it, National’s party vote is holding up (look at the individual electorates, including seats with Labour MPs).

    • Colonial Viper 36.1

      A mate of mine has called it – we’ve effectively segregated voters into two broad subgroups – Advanced and on the day. NATs will hold the advantage re: Advanced votes.

  37. karol 37

    This person reckons that the party share of advanced votes 2014 are pretty much the same as for 2011:

    Very similar advanced vote % to each party. Ie 2011 advanced for Nat: 142,912 (49.78%) compared with 2014 advanced for Nat: 296,205 (48.72%)

    Ryan Mearns is a Green Party person. This the 2011 advanced party votes.

    2011 Advanced:
    Nat: 49.78
    Lab: 26.26
    Green: 9.99
    NZF: 6.91
    Maori: 1.26

    • Draco T Bastard 37.1

      So, by completely unscientific method, we can expect National to get between 44% and 45% (2 to 3% down on their advanced %age).

  38. bearded git 38

    oops my source wrong on napier so ignore the post above that nash has taken this

    • gobsmacked 38.1

      He’s comfortably ahead though, and should take it, thanks to Garth McVicar …

      Labour are currently on track for 4 list MPs. Some good people could miss out.

      • newsense 38.1.1

        no, no,no it’s cos he’s run a real Labour campaign and all the others are not Labour people. Only Stuart the renegade Nash has the truth and his fearless defender Josie Pagani.

        All other Labour people are anti-jobs.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 38.2

      Why ignore. the results so far have him with a good lead.
      McVicar has split the right vote and the boundaries have favoured labour.

      All in all, Nash WILL take Napier , my old home town, as expected

  39. weka 40

    Bit like watching paint dry now

  40. lurgee 41

    I reckon Greens and Labour will get a 3% boost as the urban areas come in. But I think 27% Labour and 13% Green is the very best we can hope for. Which still leaves us short.

  41. ghostwhowalksnz 42

    For some reason the EC website shows MP as two seats but the totals have only got them leading in one seat ?

    • weka 42.1

      Odd, the party vote is 1.27% which would yield them 1.5 MPs, not 2.

      • alwyn 42.1.1

        I realise you are half-witted but just how do you think that a party can have 1.5 MPs?
        You get an MP with about 0.4% and then another one for every 0.8%.
        The method is all explained on the election website.

  42. JRT 43

    The left are not going to have a majority even with NZ First. Winston will be powerless, he will end up having to give confidence and supply to National, or National will call another election and then he will be punished by the electorate. He won’t be able to bargain for any of his policies to be implemented as he cannot form a government with anyone else. What an idiocracy we live in, punish the corrupt National government by taking votes off Labour? WTF??

    • lurgee 43.1

      If National end up on 45%, with the Conservatives out of parliament, then they need Winston. And that’s possible.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 43.2

      The PM always always has to ask the Governor General for a new election.
      Historically they havent done so if there is an alternative governmen available, as it should be.

      If Key cant get a government after a election, the Cunliffe is ‘next cab offf rank to try.

  43. Lanthanide 44

    BF’s words, with my spin on it:
    Act needs to rename themselves Act on Campus, because it’s clear that’s all they are now.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 44.1

      ACT on computer screen more like it.
      Seymour is a geeky electrical engineer, who is only experience of politics is data analysis for politicians.

      Not likely to get a ministerial job even if Nats still govern

  44. McWhirter 45

    Early days, folks, stiff upper lip and all that! Tosh commentary on TV3!

  45. chris73 46

    Since the elections over (bar the counting) can I comment yet?

    Guess so…

  46. weka 47

    Damian Christie ‏@damianchristie 3 mins
    On current polling, given 5% wasted vote, National need 47.9% to govern alone – currently on 48.9 (31% counted). #vote2014nz

    Anyone understand how to do that maths?

  47. lurgee 48

    Michelle Boag sounds sane compared to Hosking. That’s how deranged he is.

  48. cogito 49

    Seems that NZ wants another three years of lies. What does that say about NZ…

  49. ScottGN 50

    Maungakiekie results interesting. Labour running very close to National in Party and Electorate vote.

    • Weepus beard 50.1

      Yep. We are not happy with the current government here.

      Pity the rest of the country doesn’t see it that way.

  50. toby manhire says..

    “.. 627,577 counted so far are advanced vote..”

    90%..

    • lurgee 51.1

      I’m totally confused by this. I was assured – ASSURED – by Mike Hosking we wouldn’t hear what the advanced votes were until after 8.30 and then they would all be dumped at once. You aren’t saying Mike Hosking is a clueless idiot, are you? How could anyone ever think that?

  51. millsy 52

    Dissapointing result for the left from the looks of it….all round. Only good thing is the Conseratives missing out.

  52. Corokia 53

    Gower raved about how clean the floor was at the Nats election do. Can someone ask him on twitter, to find out how much the cleaners at the venue got paid for washing that floor, because I very much doubt that any of the National partygoers had anything to do with it.

    • Richard McGrath 53.1

      Sour grapes.

      Any cleaners at Nasty Nat HQ probably got paid more than the workers at the DotCom mansion…

  53. one vote difference between harawira and kelvin..

    davis now in lead..

  54. phant0m 55

    for many of us who have watched the bilious contributions of regular contributors to this website tonight is complete vindication. you don’t understand how far away from the majority your views have become. sadly that means the majority are wrong, uninformed, ignorant, greedy, RWNJ’s or whatever. we are not- we just have a genuinely different view about how to structure incentives and rewards.

    • sabine 55.1

      like having dinner with un-named chinese officials to advance ones husbands prospects?

      i can see the incentives and rewards.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 55.2

      Have you read the TVNZ vote website, the numbers give 2/3 wanting a fairer society, higher minium wage etc.

      Nationals secret is running more centre than right, in fact a lot of their supporters call them labour Lite

      • Richard McGrath 55.2.1

        They ARE Labour-lite. Not sure why the readers here are so viciously anti-National.

        Difference between the two major parties is that Key appears more genuine, Cunliffe looks manufactured in front of the cameras. I imagine he is a bit more personable one-to-one.

    • JanM 55.3

      All good – you will get the country you deserve

  55. aj 56

    ….. and a different view on corruption and ethics.

  56. lurgee 57

    Colin Craig doesn’t like “the system” – presumably he means MMP. Does he actually believe he would be ding better under First Past The Post?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 57.1

      ‘the system’ is just a focus group phrase thats fed to him.

      You dont think his other utterances , which are really what he thinks, chem trails, are a long way from polly speak

    • BM 57.2

      National should have put a bullet in Act and given a seat to the conservatives.
      Hopefully they realize their mistake and do that next time.

  57. lurgee 58

    IMP aren’t getting any seats right now, according to the Election Results website. I think Harawira will get there in the end, but it is carnage out there. Carnage.

    • Richard McGrath 58.1

      Deserved carnage. Great to see the odious Harawira get his come-uppance after selling his soul to a [deleted].

      [lprent: You made an assertion of a probable defamatory fact and certainly the statement as a whole is defamatory as it carries no public interest. It is not worth us trying to defend. Banned for 6 weeks. ]

  58. ScottGN 59

    Am I right in thinking that Jacinda Adern would be leading in Akl Central if Green voters had voted strategically?

  59. Harry Holland 60

    Hone is 123 votes behind with 45% counted.
    West Auckland still to come should favour Davis?
    Earlier this week I was thinking this election reminded me a bit of 1981. I remember waiting an hour to see what was happening before heading off to the party at the big house in Parnell, and when I saw what was happening I couldn’t face a party…

  60. big bruv 61

    Looks like another three more years of a fantastic National government.

    If you guys had just kept Shearer…..

    • alwyn 61.1

      Labour have done very well with Cunliffe as leader.
      On second thoughts, if they stay at the present level, it will be the lowest percentage of the votes that Labour will have had since 1914. That’s one hundred years.
      Even Goff’s terrible result was better than they got since 1928.
      Yes they should have kept Shearer. At least he seemed to be a real person.

      • greywarbler 61.1.1

        Your sort of person maybe. How could Shearer stand as a Labour leader and run down a beneficiary doing some work on his house.

      • sabine 61.1.2

        no matter Shearer or Cunliffe, there are currently more people in the country that affiliate with national than labour.
        We might not like or understand it and it does not even matter. They voted their choice, and that is what counts.

        • alwyn 61.1.2.1

          I don’t mind that National are more popular than Labour plus Greens. I want another term for a pretty effective Government.
          The trouble is that Labour is going to remain the same party as it was when they lost the 2008 and 2011 elections.
          They aren’t fit to be a Government, and they don’t look like getting any better by the 2017 election. By then it will be time to get rid of National. They will be a tired, and possibly arrogant, group, in just the same way that National was in 1999 and Labour was in 2008. The problem will be that there will be no one there who is fit to take over. Do you really want relics of the 1980s like Goff, Mallard and King to be in senior roles? Labour should have refreshed their MPs in 2011 and they might have become fit to be a Government by 2017.

        • Eog Leife 61.1.2.2

          The ironic thing is that if the Hager book had been about Labour, if the scandals had been about them, the inquiries, the spying revelations, plus the loss of a minister during the campaign, they would have lost incredible amounts of support. But it made not a dent on the Nats’ support. The conclusion to be drawn is that nothing on this earth would tear them away from their lying false Messiah. It’s not just infatuation, the sheep are in love with their shepherd.

          • rich the other 61.1.2.2.1

            Hagers book and the kim dot com circus had nothing to do with who is the most competent to govern .
            No point in kicking them out when there is no viable alternative .

    • Richard McGrath 61.2

      National won the party vote in Shearer’s electorate as well as Cunliffe’s. Nothing would have saved Labour.

  61. Murray Olsen 62

    Fuck. I hope this turns around.

    • Richard McGrath 62.1

      No, it’s increasingly awesome, especially without that wheezing soak Peters wagging the dog.

  62. A VOTER 63

    It would be nice to know how Legalize Marijuana going Ugh I forgot we are all stoned this is war

  63. infused 64

    good night so far. even better having hone knocked out

  64. outofbed 65

    I think we should declare Wellington Central as an autonomous republic

  65. AndrewENZ 66

    I guess those land line free voters are right wing voters.

  66. Disturbed 67

    Murray Olsen.
    A rigged polling system?

    • SpaceMonkey 67.1

      Is it really possible National could steal the election? I have no doubt this lot would try it if they could.

    • SpaceMonkey 67.2

      How much have boundary changes had an impact? Trevor Mallard seems to have come a bit unstuck because of this, well… partly, at least.

    • Murray Olsen 67.3

      I wouldn’t go there at all unless some evidence came up. I don’t think that NAct is morally incapable of rigging the vote, but there’s no need for that explanation. They have inspired more voters than our side has, despite their incompetence, corruption, and disdain for democratic processes. This says something about both Kiwis and about our side that I really don’t like.
      The kulaks have just voted banana republic status for our future. We could have done so much better.

  67. chris73 68

    So Colin won’t get in but if Hone doesn’t either then its a pretty good deal

  68. lurgee 69

    55.9% counted and Labour mustering up some courage and edging up to the big bad 24% mark …

  69. Billygoat 70

    Wow hard to belive that Conservative is about 1/5 as popular as the whole of labour

  70. Weepus beard 71

    A few right wing and socially corrupt trolls appearing here at the moment. I wonder why?

  71. ScottGN 72

    Very quiet from big Auckland booths. Also haven’t heard a thing from Dunedin for ages.

  72. garth mcvicar won napier for labour..

  73. Sookie 74

    This is dire people. I’m glad I’m middle aged, well off and highly cynical. If I was still a young idealistic student I’d be raging about now. Now I’ll just have a big wine instead.

  74. SpaceMonkey 75

    Labour broken through 24%…

  75. SDCLFC 76

    Why are strong Labour candidates doing well but the party vote not being returned in their electorate? Don’t think it’s the Labours MPs because they’re being voted for. Don’t think it’s Labours volunteers because they’ve worked hard.
    What’s going on with Labour’s party strategy? The electorate have been telling Labour what they want for 6 years and the party have not been listening.
    It is failing and needs to be moved on.

  76. lurgee 77

    Labour break 24%!! The Long March has started!! Onwards to victory!!

  77. chris73 78

    Was it me or was the guy from NZfirst quite aggressive? Hate to see what he’d be like if they were below 5%

  78. simon 79

    This is a disaster. Ushering a new era of selfishness. Only consolation is that I am white, educated and wealthy, so this new paradigm suits me. Still horrible to consider though…

  79. infused 80

    Said since 2008, labour need a shake up. no one trusts labour anymore.

  80. Mike the Savage One 81

    So dear all, you got it now. Labour are screwed, the worst result for years, if not never in regards to the party vote, Greens have suffered also, due to voters not giving them much of a chance, as they would only make a difference if they would form a government with Labour, and Winston Peters and NZ First have been the true winner in this election.

    Internet Mana Party show a dismal result, after 3 million spent on signs and online media campaigning, but some of their candidates and a media person going idiotic too often, and them also being divided and not convincing voters. Few of the ones they targeted to vote bothered to vote, and even Hone seems to be out, so NO representation for Internet Mana, the huge failure of the night, besides of the Conservatives, who will (thank God) also not be in.

    Cunliffe behaved like an idiot on the Paul Henry Show last night, and he must step down. He is not able to lead a totally divided unconvincing party, that did not get their message across. National will win, and possibly can govern on their own, or at least with the usual mercenaries.

    Again the mainstream media have been the absolute “winners” as the constant attacks on Cunliffe, the ridiculing of Labour and also Greens, by talk back hosts, by commentators and so has worked yet again. New Zealand as a population has sadly become a self centred, divided nation, where it is all about “me”, “me” and more “me”, competition, a fight for a size of the pie and NO vision for the future.

    Myself I feared this and it has come. Labour need a clean out, more than that, and they have stuffed up big. First and foremost, it is time to address the shocking media bias we have had for years, attack the damned media, they are the ones that (mis)inform the public at large, and pave the way for their idol John Key!

    And one Kim Dotcom, who such idiots like Martyn (Bomber) Bradbury still adore and support, he has done more damage for the whole “left” or progressive movement in this country than anybody could have. Prepare for his deportation to the US, where he should fight his battle, and New Zealanders have no time for the man anymore.

    So sleep well all, if you can, a major rebuilding of the left and progressive movement in NZ Aotearoa is overdue, should have happened after Phil Goff gave up leadership, I fear the ones left as Labour MPs will do all for that not to happen.

    Good night, Mike

    P.S.: I need many beers tonight, to get over this

    • infused 81.1

      yep, blame the media.

      • Naki man 81.1.1

        Mike did get a few things right, Labour need a clean out, Bummer Bradbury is an idiot and Kim Dot Com has damaged the left and New Zealanders want him gone.

        • Eog Leife 81.1.1.1

          How about a clean-out of the corrupt mob in the Govt first? Put in some people who don’t lie, for a start. Oops but that would mean bye-bye Key, wouldn’t it?

    • weka 81.2

      Mike, have you bothered to read anyone else’s comments? Did you see the bit about how left wing parties pick up votes at the end of the counting when the big city polling booths start to come in?

    • SpaceMonkey 81.3

      New Zealanders prefer to fight each other for the drips from the great neo-liberal trickle-down.

    • Weepus beard 81.4

      New Zealand as a population has sadly become a self centred, divided nation, where it is all about “me”, “me” and more “me”, competition, a fight for a size of the pie and NO vision for the future.

      This for me is true and very worrying.

      Our country has been successfully split by the National government. Expect bad things to happen in the future.

    • SDCLFC 81.5

      Winston isn’t the winner tonight, he’s irrelevant.
      We’ve got to stop blaming the media. The electorate is moderate and not prepared to move to extremities. Stuart Nash has got the centre to vote for him without party strategy. It’s time Labour started targeting what people want rather than what Labour think they should want.

      • lprent 81.5.1

        Stuart Nash has got the centre to vote for him without party strategy.

        Ah no. Your argument is stupid and clearly you haven’t looked at the numbers.

        If you look at the actual vote in Napier what you will see (ignoring the 3615 specials) is:-

        1. McVicar got 7135 for the conservatives compared to 668 in 2011
        2. Walford got 10308 for national compared to Tremain’s 17337 in 2011 (and the drop went to McVicar)
        3. Nash got 14041 for labour compared to his 13636 in 2011.

        Now Stuart Nash will pick some up in the specials. But clearly there are two factors going on.

        The turnout is is up by nearly 2500 (the classic pattern for a close fought election) and the right vote is split between two candidates

        But it doesn’t look like Stuart Nash managed to significantly shift the vote in that electorate at all. It looks more like a local issue forced a fight between the new National candidate and a local populist.

        You could argue your case if Stuart retains the seat next election. Which is possible but not that likely.

        • SDCLFC 81.5.1.1

          Stuart matched his message to what the electorate wanted to hear rather than telling them what they should want.
          Maybe Labour isn’t right for business because they’re always telling the customer that they’re wrong which is never smart selling.
          Clearly there is no mood for change so why is David Cunliffe saying so (regarding his concession speech).
          I’m a progressive voter who wants a progressive Labour-lead Government but that will rely on Labour earning vote that is more conservative to me. I accept that believing that on balance we would be able to push the electorate slowly forward (not left or right).
          That can never happen when extremities are fixed on telling the moderate that they are wrong.
          The electorate is rejecting Labour’s support base and party far more than it is rejecting its Caucus.
          The night’s biggest loser – Martyn Bradbury. We’d benefit from him dusting off his passport.

    • Granted 81.6

      Great Post

      Dotcom cast a shadow over New Zealand – not just the left.

      The only news items about him will now be about the staff he has ripped off, and what flight he is due to take to USA

    • Eog Leife 81.7

      I don’t watch the Paul Henry Show, the guy’s about as funny as a KKK member. Any time in his presence would be enough to make anybody act a bit crazy.

  81. Southern Man 82

    Here in Clutha the people have made it very clear – they prefer a 23 yo turnip to a candidate with 25 years of community service. The electors will get the government they deserve.

  82. Enough is Enough 83

    This is a fucking disaster.

  83. infused 84

    hone crying?

  84. lurgee 85

    Labour seem to have moved decisively across the 24% boundary. Yay!! Almost 1 in 4 voting New Zealanders was not totally repelled by Labour!! And National are sinking like a very light, floaty stone, all the way down to 48.67%! This is massive and John Key really must resign. Right now.

  85. Zorr 86

    This election will show the lowest turnout ever… yet again

    NZ – setting all the wrong records.

    Results Counted: 5,040 of 7,198 ( 70.0%)
    Total Votes Counted: 1,488,985

    Run that in a calculator and the total turnout is lower than last time. As a percentage it is also probably worse also as I doubt number of eligible voters has gone down.

    • wtl 86.1

      The % results counted is the % of voting places counted NOT the % of total votes counted (obviously they don’t know how many votes are in the places not yet counted because they haven’t counted them). The booths that will come later will have a larger number of votes and have a larger influence on the results that the earlier ones. You can’t stay anything about turnout until all the votes are counted.

  86. Ant 87

    It’s going to be sadly hilarious if Labour do this shit and kill off Mana.

  87. karol 88

    People all over twitter are calling it a a massive victory for Nats.

  88. tsmithfield 89

    Don’t forget the wasted vote. When that is shared around on a pro-rata basis, National could be over 50%.

  89. Pete 90

    Fair play to Josie Pagani, she was right and I and a lot of the rest of us were wrong.

    • chris73 90.1

      Also shes looking quite fetching tonight, the pink is offset quite nicely by her hair…

    • Ant 90.2

      I think a tax and raising the retirement age was always going to be a hard sell.

      Also Greens are so low I don’t think its much to do with anything Pagani says, and more to do with Key’s popularity.

  90. burt 91

    3 more years !

  91. greywarbler 92

    David Parker being ho hum about the possibility of a Labour MP losing a seat. If they do then they weren’t good enough. Just after Andrew Little’s seat being discussed, seems on the edge. Parker sounds a bit of a cold fish, too objective and captured by process
    and fatalistic.

  92. BM 93

    Dirty politics was a poor strategy chaps.

    Every one with more than 2 brain cells knew it was a orchestrated campaign by the left to smear National.

    • thatguynz 93.1

      You fucking idiot. You’ve aptly demonstrated that politics is just a game to you to be won or lost.. Perish the thought that “Dirty Politics” might actually have some substance. Certainly would appear that it has more than we should expect of you..

      • BM 93.1.1

        It was all just a beat up.

        • Ivana 93.1.1.1

          Agreed, and the people saw through it, the voters are smarter than they are given credit for.

          • thatguynz 93.1.1.1.1

            Doubtful. They’ve just demonstrated that they are well entitled to the level of “smarts” that they are given credit for.

          • D'Esterre 93.1.1.1.2

            @ Ivana: “…the people saw through it”

            I’m taking a punt that you and BM haven’t read Hager’s book. If you had, you’d know that it’s anything but a beat-up. The people couldn’t have seen through it, because only a very few of them have read it; the rest have believed the propaganda from the PM.

            Remember that Hager is an investigative journalist; he’s an equal-opportunities annoyer of political parties. He got seriously up the nose of the Clark administration with his book on GMOs, and in “Other People’s Wars”, he took a swipe at successive administrations .

            I put it to you that he’s got a great deal more courage than you or me, or all the other people here who comment under pseudonyms: he’s out there putting his own name to his work, and taking on the chin whatever reaction comes his way.

        • thatguynz 93.1.1.2

          And with that your honour the prosecution rests. Idiot.

  93. SpaceMonkey 94

    Greens broken through 10%…

  94. infused 95

    hone is gone

  95. Seti 96

    A massacre!

    3.5% growth and 5.6% unemployment, considering the worst recession since the 30’s and a $40bn earthquake, was always going to be hard to beat, but focusing on shit that doesn’t matter has also taught the left a painful lesson.

    I fear for the personal wellbeing for some contributors on this site.

    Oh, and Kim DotCom? Fuck off out of this country you degenerate cunt.

  96. ScottGN 97

    Won’t make much difference but worth noting that all the big Auckland booths are still sub 50% on their reporting.

  97. SpaceMonkey 98

    If National able to govern alone… they’ll tell everyone to bugger off and do what the hell they like. No vision, no ideas, no policy going into the election and they’ll have a “mandate” for all sorts of horrors. I had no idea New Zealanders were such masochists. The New Zealand I grew up in is well and truly gone.

    • infused 98.1

      no they wont could have done that the first time.

      • SpaceMonkey 98.1.1

        Maybe… so it’s more steady as she goes… slight of hand selling out of NZ… ignoring all the icebergs ahead. We will get a nation we deserve.

  98. Andrew Welsh 99

    SETI,
    Totally agree, I will be taking a day off when Das uber gross is marched down the departure gates bound for San Quentin. As far as I am concerned he take take that b*tch Sykes and her off sider Minto with him as well

    • lurgee 99.1

      You were doing quite well until you started laying to Annette Sykes. KDC is almost certainly a criminal who has accrued millions through his activities; Sykes is just an intelligent woman who disagrees with you. No need to be repulsive.

  99. Lanthanide 100

    BF’s analysis:
    National voters who didn’t like dirty politics went to NZFirst and conservatives
    Labour voters went to National
    Few Green voters went to IMP

    • weka 100.1

      Why would Labour voters go to National?

      • Lanthanide 100.1.1

        Labour vote has gone down. Green vote hasn’t really changed. Clearly Labour vote went somewhere.

      • locus 100.1.2

        Possible answer:

        Maybe there are Labour voters who haven’t read dirty politics and so don’t know the facts – and/or who feel that an NZ PM has somehow been picked on.

        I’ve heard the view from some Labour voters that
        – they didn’t like the information in Hager’s book being ‘stolen’ (irrespective of who did the stealing)
        – they disliked the way that Hager released the book just before the election, which suggests he was more concerned about profit than the issues, and that
        – the timing did not let the ‘accused’ have a fair chance to counter the ‘accusations’.

        So for now…. jk and the nats hold the moral high ground – and maybe they got an unexpected extra 1-2% of non-nat voters because of this

        I reckon quite a few people (left and right) think that right thing would have been for Hager to give all the incriminating stuff to the cops and ask them to investigate. Then later with the nasty stuff out in the open he could have released his book as a chance for all NZers to understand the depths of the deceptions and misuse of power.

        • weka 100.1.2.1

          I think it’s more likely that many Labour voters went to NZF, some to the GP who lost some to IMP, and a few to National. Some not voting at all.

        • Murray Olsen 100.1.2.2

          Hager makes money from his writing and makes buggerall for all the hard work and headaches. The only bad thing about the timing was that there wasn’t enough time for Royal Commissions and other investigations to report back before the election.

          If he’d passed his stuff to the cops they would have laughed. It would have disappeared.

  100. adam 101

    I’ve held my tongue, but I’ll say it now. Voting is a mugs game – especially when it’s rigged by a few, for the service of a few. The left has been beating by vicious propaganda and fear. My guess – you will be depressed and looking to/for something to blame. It hasn’t change – nothing has changed, because of a dam fool election. The enemy of the people, is capitalism, it always has been and it’s about to get worse for people – much worse. Those who once again hold power are corrupt, vicious and evil people. My views have not changed, my aims are still the same. If you want you can wallow in some sort of pity, but I don’t care. I will be taking myself out of bed every day and oppose this government, now more than ever. Now is not the time to stop – but to fight!

    • JRT 101.1

      Yep. Elections are no way for change anymore. Grass roots rebellion is going to have to happen.

      • adam 101.1.1

        Non-violent rebellion – can’t be giving those on the right any options for violence. They do like their OTT violent responses over there.

        • JRT 101.1.1.1

          The pro independence Scots did it well. They didn’t win, but they got nearly half the country alongside them. Good natured campaign, and they did it all without the MSM too.

          • adam 101.1.1.1.1

            Yes, it’s a good model, we need to forget the MSM. Indeed we need to ignore them, and do our own press. Fighting the fear will be hard – but we have some good minds.

            • locus 101.1.1.1.1.1

              …and we’re people whose passion is not driven by profit, but by the burning desire to build a better society… and a belief in NZ inc.

              No more selling off all our national infrastructure and resources for short-term profit. We can and will stop this neoliberal degradation of our kiwi values

    • lurgee 101.2

      Let us know how that goes, old chap. I must say, you’ve done some sterling work. I can see the right just trembling in fear of you.

      • locus 101.2.1

        fear is typically the tool of extremists…. both sides have those

        the issue here is the naivety of many (i’m sure) decent national voters who simply can’t or won’t bring themselves to read ‘dirty politics’ or to question the possible abuses of power

        aside from the disgust and anger that many right of centre voters would feel if the evidence had incriminated left wing politicians rather than right wing ones ………

        eventually many who gave their vote to jk this time will not have him there to vote for next time,

        and many rightish voters will gradually realise that privatising NZ’s resources and environment, and being governed by champions of profit and gambling isn’t a good path towards happiness or a decent society

    • weka 101.3

      Did you vote?

  101. Weepus Beard
    You are not taking the election results well and I think BM is 100% correct

    • lurgee 102.1

      I think Dirty Politics will corrode the government’s credibility in the months to come. It’ll be be pretty nasty for National, and all played out in the glare of office, not the merciful darkness of opposition.

    • Weepus beard 102.2

      Really? I don’t think there is any reason for someone to start throwing around insults like “degenerate cunt” unless that person is drunk, unhinged and making up for previous perceived slights.

      If you think BM is 100% correct then you must be that way too.

  102. Billygoat 103

    Hey guys, this is how I felt when Labour won their 3rd term.
    Im sure you are all in for the long game, Labour may well shine again, For what its worth ,centre of right see the media as completly biased toward the left, you guys see the opposite, we may have more in common than we thought.
    Hey nothing dries faster than tears , the sun will come up in the morning.
    Take care

    • Draco T Bastard 103.1

      The problem with that is that National over the next three years will destroy NZ. There’s no coming back from this.

      5000 years of civilisation and the RWNJs continue to fuck it up for everyone.

      • weka 103.1.1

        The thing that is worrying me even more than that (as if that weren’t bad enough) is that in three years time so many more people will be apathetic about politics or voting greedy.

        • Sans Cle 103.1.1.1

          And the RMA will take a massive hit. Smith had a go at it already……wait to see what shape it will be in, in 3 years time. Aoteroa, I despair for you tonight.

      • yeshe 103.1.2

        The only I hope I can hold now is in Ombudsperson Beverly Wakem, otherwise all the dirt and theft and manipulation of democracy will disappear.

        Awful result for NZ, including those who are too stupid yet to understand what this will bring.

  103. SPC 104

    Labour has their wish, of Mana and the Maori Party only Flavell will survive.

    Davis will be in, and someone above him on the list will miss out.

    • weka 104.1

      There’s something happening with Mallard winning his seat and those lower on the list missing out. Adhern?

    • Draco T Bastard 104.2

      Labour has successfully lost the election. It wasn’t KDC or IMP, it was Labour with poor policies and refusing to work with all the other parties.

      • weka 104.2.1

        +1

        There’s likely to be some acrimonious conversations over the next few days 🙁

        • lurgee 104.2.1.1

          Main failures were failing to build a left wing alliance and lay out their platform well ahead of the election so it could get into the heads of New Zealanders.

      • infused 104.2.2

        wouldnt of helped. ruling them out was a good thing

      • adam 104.2.3

        Labour, like the liberals before them – are on the wrong side of history.

      • MrV 104.2.4

        You ain’t going to win an election in a country with the demographics NZ has by promising to raise the retirement age (Even if it needs to be done).

      • ScottGN 104.2.5

        Not just Labour. All the parties on the left have done very poorly tonight. Middle NZ took a look at us and ran screaming towards the National Party, make of that what you will. Hopefully David Cunliffe can work hard in the next parliament to put us in a better position for the next election.

        • Harry Holland 104.2.5.1

          Do you really think DC will be given that chance? He got my vote for Labour, but he has clearly failed completely to connect with middle NZ. Given that he has never enjoyed a huge amount of loyalty from caucus anyway, can you really see him surviving (new rules notwithstanding)?

          • ScottGN 104.2.5.1.1

            Yeah I think he can. He’s survived everything that both National and Labour have thrown at him so far.

          • Harry Holland 104.2.5.1.2

            I have said before that labour does not need to be left. they can be centre and leave the left to Greens (clearly NZ has no appetite for those to the left of the Greens unfortunately). that formula is how the centre-left can win in 2017. I know that annoys lefty members of the labour party, but the maths makes sense.

            • weka 104.2.5.1.2.1

              you’re missing out all the people that didn’t vote again Harry. If you are going to use maths, you have to count them.

              • Hanswurst

                That’s far from clear. Enough voters were impressed by stuff like constant media barrages against Labour as a “shambles” and Key’s line of “five new taxes”. That isn’t the definition of “Left”.

                If, in three years, a jaded John Key (or less popular successor) screams “five more taxes”, voters will simply shrug and say, “Whatever,” and if Labour aren’t perceived to be in a mess as they (usually wrongly) have been at times this year, then none of that will count. Under those circumstances, a left-wing platform would have a far better chance.

      • Tangled_up 104.2.6

        KDC scared much needed swing voters away from Labour. He also took out MANA while he was at it. Cunliffes popularity is slowly rising so I hope that this trend continues and the left can move onwards and upwards without these sideshow distractions.

  104. sabine 105

    we knew that this would happen, or at least that it might happen.
    and effectively it does not matter anymore. Maybe we from the ‘old Labour’ Party are the dying specimen. I don’t know.

    But i do know that National will now have to carry it on their own. No more finger pointing at Clarke and heir time as PM. Now they own it.

    This is the only solace I have.
    National now owns it. All of it.

  105. sigh 106

    In NZ we seem to have fallen into 3 term election cycle pattern. Pretty much no matter how bad (or good for that matter) the government is, they will get 3 goes. Elector patience begins to ware thin on the second term, hence the the popularity of an early 2nd term election. It may seem all doom and gloom for the left now but this will give the perfect opportunity for some rebirth and real change next time when most will have had a real guts full of the current lot.

  106. Tigger 107

    Silver lining – we now get to see Key resign in tears next year when all his awfulness comes spilling out.

    Tick tock, John.

    • chris73 107.1

      Thats always been the main problem with theleft these last couple of years, its always just wait until rather then getting out and making things happen

      Not proactive enough

    • SpaceMonkey 107.2

      Or… the MSM will start gunning for his fourth term very soon… and then make it happen. His awfulness has been well documented and on display for all… but NZers are buying the BS.

      • BM 107.2.1

        I would expect Key to do a fourth term and then his successor to do another couple after that.

        NZ’s future has never looked better, happy, happy, happy, joy, joy, joy. 🙂

    • Draco T Bastard 107.3

      Key will be the one who controls the inquiries and so nothing will come out. That’s what happens when you have a corrupt government.

    • ploompi 107.4

      How long before nobody admits voting for nat?

  107. Weepus beard 108

    The worst thing to come out of tonight is Mallard winning his seat. He’s a Nat/Labour politician and part of the poison in Labour right now.

    • weka 108.1

      Up there with Labour shooting itself in the foot over TTT, and the GP gifting Ōhāriu to the right.

      • ScottGN 108.1.1

        Tell me weka, how would Hone winning TTT have made any difference tonight? We have been cleaned out by John Key, just fucking face it!

        • weka 108.1.1.1

          We haven’t been cleaned out by National. National’s result right now is only 1.06% more than last time.

          • lurgee 108.1.1.1.1

            Good grief. It’s their third victory. They should be going down, not up.

            • weka 108.1.1.1.1.1

              “Good grief. It’s their third victory. They should be going down, not up.”

              How exactly? By National voters not voting? Or voting for who? The people that would up the left vote are simply not voting at all, or are voting NZF (they’re not going to National).

          • cricklewood 108.1.1.1.2

            Given the circumstance its a clean out… if the nats can increase their vote in the face of scandal and Nz first thrive the “left ” has taken a caning

            • weka 108.1.1.1.2.1

              Labour took a caning (los votes to Peters). The GP doing about the same. Mana/Harawira is a big loss to the left. Hope Labour learns some lessons here.

    • lurgee 108.2

      And so it begins. The incessant, unending schisming. the desperate attacks on the other side of the party. Please, just accept, that Social Democrats are as viable members of the Labour party as Socialists. Stop fighting them. Look where it has got you. 24%. Outstanding.

      YOU CAN NOT WIN WITH OUT THE CENTRE.

      There are enough sane middle class New Zealanders to win every election. They are not the enemy. Remember the 99% vs the 1%?

      • weka 108.2.1

        What’s the point of winning if you lose all your good policy?

        • lurgee 108.2.1.1

          What’s the point of losing with great policies?

          Believe me. I’m Scottish. No-one gets the idea of glorious defeat like the Scots. All our greatest victories have been defeats. And look where it got us.

          • Hanswurst 108.2.1.1.1

            I don’t know what you’re trying to say. Posters on this site don’t “win” elections. The candidates do that. The only glory posters on The Standard (or any voters) can get from an election is policies that improve their lives. If a party wins with policies that don’t benefit them, they’ve lost, regardless of whether the party wears blue or red.

          • lprent 108.2.1.1.2

            Mourning the loss of the stone of scone for centuries?

      • Lanthanide 108.2.2

        BF’s analysis is that Labour didn’t differentiate themself enough on the left, so the all the centre votes just went to National instead.

        • ScottGN 108.2.2.1

          Are you nuts? Have you not been paying attention? The centre doesn’t want to vote for the left and they don’t want to vote for the right either. They want to vote for a party that comes to them. And Labour hasn’t for a couple of elections. John Key has and he’s won big tonight. We need to learn from this or it’s opposition from here on in.

          • Hanswurst 108.2.2.1.1

            Better a left opposition than a centre-right Labour government. What’s the use of getting Labour into power if it’s just the National Party in drag?

            • locus 108.2.2.1.1.1

              Yep, I agree, the UK Labour party did that and look at the total social and economic mess that UK is in now…

              Should we carry on wearing our true colours on our sleeve? Yes, because that’s who we are and we will eventually win the arguments…. not least because the results of the next government’s policies and behaviour will be nasty and visible right under people’s noses

              The problem is that the odds are stacked against us. Most of the money is on the right and is buying the media and blogs to frame our vigilance and social concern as some kind of extreme ideology

              I’m absolutely sure that Cunliffe will make a strong and good PM for all New Zealanders in the future and will lead us out of the increasing mess I fear is on the near horizon

              • lurgee

                The British labour government also introduced a minimum wage, revitalised education and protected the NHS from the demented ideas of the Tories. If you think William Hague or Michael Howard would have been even half as socially responsible as New Labour were, you’re sadly deluded. Wishy-washy centrism is infinitely preferable to having the right in power. If nothing else, it shows the electorate are still thinking in a socially responsible way, and may be persuaded to take the next step.

      • ScottGN 108.2.3

        +1 lurgee

      • D'Esterre 108.2.4

        @ lurgee: “YOU CAN NOT WIN WITH OUT THE CENTRE.”

        This may be so, but here’s the thing: it’s incontrovertible that centrist policies, such as that of which the centre voter approves, aren’t doing it for the poor, disabled, marginalised and disenfranchised people in our society. This sector of our society needs policies which are more collectivist and redistributive in nature than what is currently on offer. BUT: and we’ve presumably just seen this, such policies cause the centre to turn its back on Labour. What’s the answer to this conundrum?

  108. dave 109

    totoal fuckin disaster idiots have given national total power
    there goes everything we own ,there goes the gold card ,intrest free student loans .gst up sale state homes congraulations new zealand you ve managed to fuck yourselves over.live in a fuckin banana republic

  109. Pete 110

    At least in Dunedin North Labour won a plurality of the vote over National. But there were only 24 votes in it.

  110. Jimmie 111

    So all those evil biased polls turned out to be correct after all.

    Same crap as 2008 & 2011 – lefties deluded themselves about cell phones and biased pollsters.

    The left are polling crap because their policies and people are not what NZ want.

    This has been ignored for 6 years and will carry on until the left point their fingers at themselves and not sniff out VRWC conspiracies under every bed.

    Old meme but true – Doing the same thing same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.

    • Lanthanide 111.1

      Actually the 2008 and 2011 polls both over-estimated National.

      It seems this is the first election under Key where the pollsters got National pretty much right.

  111. SPC 112

    This reminds me of 1981. In 1978 Labour won more votes but lost on seats. In 1981 the Tour and liberal leftie protestors galvanised a reactionary vote in behind National, something similar occurred this time (re Dirty Politics and the GCSB issue).

    Of course, National were abandoned by liberals and the centre in 1984 and swept away (internally divided by the end).

    • cardassian 113.1

      Take that hungry children

      • Billygoat 113.1.1

        About these hungry children, how many have actually died in the last 20 years from hunger?

        • wtl 113.1.1.1

          By analogy, I think you probably wouldn’t mind if I stabbed you in the foot a few times. If you don’t die, why does it matter?

        • Naki man 113.1.1.2

          You know the left don’t like the truth to get in the way of their spin and bullshit.

          • ghostwhowalksnz 113.1.1.2.1

            Obviously the people you pay for spin and bullshit have been much better.

            Do you really believe all that growth stuff when per head we have gone backwards since 2008.

            Of course good luck with a house price boom lasting much, dairy is slipping fast, and key no longer talks the nonsense about ‘regional financial centre’

            And those surpluses, allways ‘next year’ Wont happen this current year now the election is over either
            Borrowing $1 bill a month, without a plan to pay it back, if ever.

          • locus 113.1.1.2.2

            have you bothered to read Dirty Politics – no? and if you did would you be compelled to extract the truth – no? do you care what the right wing do provided they win – no?

            the pity is that the whole of New Zealand is going to reap what has been sown

  112. 4,000+ dumbarse lab/grn voters in epsom voted for their candidates..

    ..had they voted tactically..goldsmith wd have won..

    ..the left just does not ‘get’ mmp…

    ..all over the country..this face-palming dumbness is duplicated..

    …stupid voting for candidates who will never win..instead of fucken thinking..

  113. The sickening superior attitudes will be out in force now – I want to blame and lash out but this is the reality of our country and our system – this is us – I want to puke.

    • yeshe 115.1

      yep. so sad.

    • SpaceMonkey 115.2

      Yep… totally captured… it’s awful!

    • The Al1en 115.3

      Don’t blame and lash out, mars, not unless it’s at hone for dealing with kdc for his loot which cost him his job, and especially not at the 98.8% of people who rejected mip with ease.

      • weka 115.3.1

        Nah, Labour, Davis, and all the right wingers got together and cost Harawira his job.

        • The Al1en 115.3.1.1

          Tactical voting ’cause he was tainted, but call it right wing gang up if you will.

          • weka 115.3.1.1.1

            how was it tactical voting? If Nationals party vote had been a bit lower, voting Davis would have cost the left the election.

            Did you miss John Key’s endorsement of Davis?

            • The Al1en 115.3.1.1.1.1

              Of course it was tactical voting, you know how that works, right?

              • weka

                Yes I do, I’m a tactical voter. I’m asking you to explain it in TTT. It doesn’t look tactical to me, it looks like the GP voters in Ōhāriu.

                • The Al1en

                  It’s simple. The voters of other parties gave their electorate vote to KD to get rid of the incumbent hh.

                  Didn’t happen in epsom, but did in ttt.
                  Goes to prove ttk voters are more clued up and politically savvy than epsomites.

                  • weka

                    yeah, nah. The analysis on Māori TV tonight was that people chose Davis over Harawira for their MP. That’s not tactical, that’s normal voting.

                    And they gave their party vote to Labour. Tell me what is tactical about that?

                    Like I said, if the election had been close between the left bloc and National, that voting could have cost us the election.

                    • The Al1en

                      It’s tactical, or hh was shit and rightly replaced by the voters fair and square. Make the call and let me know. I’ll check in tomorrow to see what side of the fence your now on.
                      Night.

                    • weka

                      Still haven’t got an answer for this then?

                      “Like I said, if the election had been close between the left bloc and National, that voting could have cost us the election.”

                    • The Al1en

                      Do you need the answer? Really need it?

                      How about it’s irrelevant point because we lost, but, it just shows the majority of voters in ttt dislike hone more than the thought of a potential left wing government.

                      It speaks volumes hone can’t carry his own electorate.

      • marty mars 115.3.2

        you can get fucked allen – enjoy your laughs mate you’ve earned them

        • The Al1en 115.3.2.1

          Don’t be like that, you got closer than I thought you would, so take comfort where you can an all that.

          Just like I am. A shame the left lost the election, but hone and kdc off the scene at last, small compensation that it is, will keep me going… What bout you? lol

          • marty mars 115.3.2.1.1

            not much of a laugh there allen even for you – fill ya boots – enjoy your victory

            • The Al1en 115.3.2.1.1.1

              I’ve won nothing, so no party here my unrepresented comrade, though your loss, given your mip bluster and bravado, is a source of a consolationary wry smile.

              • sure allen – have another wine fella, another toast to your leader key

                • The Al1en

                  Not my leader mars, that’s just another spurious from your arsenal because you’re upset, angry and lashing out. I understand, and I’m not bothered by it 🙂

                  But how do you feel now, knowing your wasted party vote actually increases keys seat count as mip’s 1.2% gets reallocated?
                  I bet, as a true lefty radical that you are, that sucks even more than losing your leader, your only mp and your rich benefactor in one night.

                  • No I’m still happy with who I voted for – it wasn’t wasted – maybe you don’t get it, the fight goes on and will continue to go on. But live it up – you guys won, we lost – laugh, laugh and laugh some more, it’s okay I expect nothing more from the likes of you.

                  • The Al1en

                    Again, nice try with the us and you meme, but like hone, harre and kim it is also a fail. I lost tonight too, electorate and party vote, so I feel the pain, though given your acute embarrassment at backing a 3 legged ass, probably not as much.

                    Reality is, you did waste your vote, just like I said you you would, but it’s okay, you get another go in 3 years. Maybe you’ll take a bit of friendly, knowledgeable advice next time? Though maybe not.

                    • for a guy who lost you’re pretty chipper eh – funny that

                      just fuck off and watch your leader – he’s coming down the big stairs right now

                    • The Al1en

                      Not as funny as the look on hone’s face when he realised he’d fucked it by putting kim’s money before his principles. Bet he’d say no if he had his time again. Though he shouldn’t be let off with a generous ‘with hindsight’ piece. He should have known what would happen – 98.2% of the country did.

                      And again, not my chosen leader mars. Now it just look like your lashing out and being spiteful. Maybe no more beersies for you tonight.

                    • yawn – what about your laughs??? please try to, first stick the knife in, then twist it – that is how you really hurt people and get a laugh for yourself – come on you got the most votes now’s the time for your most delicious enjoyment

                    • The Al1en

                      I’m having, truth be told, a little side giggle at your childlike tanty and name calling, but so what, I’m only (nearly) human.

                      Something to laugh at, to take the edge of a bad nights polling. Ta hone.

                      Ps, dear kim. Next time you want to waste 3 million bucks for fuck all return, send us the cash and I promise I’ll spend it while you get nothing.
                      Ta.

                    • that’s better – feel it now? enjoy yourself, laugh, ridicule, take the piss – you have earned it

                    • The Al1en

                      Harsh that you lash out at me when it was hone who set you all up for the fall by dealing with kdc.
                      Eat it: Reap-sow-fin.

                    • well we certainly chucked everything possible at your man but he took it and it slid off him slickly – be proud mate 3 more years, 3 more years.

                      meanwhile the very very small number of believers like me will just, umm, really, just get on with the job as we did before Mana came along – it really is that simple – hopefully you get that

                    • The Al1en

                      Again, not my man mars. I party voted green this time out and have never and would never vote key or national, but good on you for persisting with the pretence if it helps you make a point or feel better about things. I don’t really mind. Sticks and stones and stuff.

                      The rest of you believers will be just like mana before kdc, 1% extremist on the fringe of political functionality, almost like the conservatives, just 3 times less popular.

                    • Nice, that is the allen I’ve come to expect. I’ll leave you to your laughs now – I grow tired of right wing fuckers like you and tonight I’ve seen and heard from plenty of them – this country is about to experience shit from woe to go – be proud allen – you helped make it happen – laugh on that you fucken wanker.

                    • The Al1en

                      Bless. Toughen up mars, and dry those eyes.
                      We’re both on the losing side, it’s just you lost more – Your mp and your parties soul.

                      That’ll teach you is the underlying subtext. Got it yet?

                    • I’m not on the same side as you allen and I don’t want to be either – once again you can go get fucked – is that sinking in yet geezer?

                    • The Al1en

                      Until you start voting for key, we are on the same side – The opposition.
                      Luckily I still have 13 mps in the house to stick it to the nats on my behalf. What about you? How many you got after you wasted your vote on the toxic kdc party? 😉

                      Despite your aggression, at least we’ve worked out who knows more about the NZ political scene. If you want another tip next time out, just ask.

                    • lol what a fuckwit you are allen so glad you got the win with the blue team last night – just as you predicted – wot a hero eh guv

                      but I am thankful there is no sound to go with you – your whiney, slimey voice would depress me greatly – yay I found a ray of sunshine – good init eh wot

                    • The Al1en

                      I won’t help you next election if you keep up with the invective mars. lol

                    • true, the last thing I want to do today is talk to an englishman – you can have the last word 🙂

  114. tc 116

    What’s the actual turnout % ?

    • Lanthanide 116.1

      It would be possible to calculate the turnout roughly at this point, but it would require someone to have the models in place. It seems this isn’t something the TV stations have prepared in advance and I doubt anyone else has.

      We’ll have to wait until the vote count is complete, which the electoral commission forecast for 11pm.

  115. SpaceMonkey 117

    Who is the reporter on TV3 baiting Laila Harre…? Awful!!

    • chris73 117.1

      I’m loving it, shes getting asked the hard questions for a change

      • Eog Leife 117.1.1

        Yeah and like when has that ever happened to Shonkey? The mainstream media gave him a sweet ride compared to Cunliffe.

    • monkey mcspleen 117.2

      they didnt show the worst on tv. i had the direct feed from the satellite on. that woman was a disgusting badgering bully. she physically blocked and hindered laila several times before and after what was shown.

      tova on the nz first hq feed was equally apalling, inanely repeating the same questions and getting in the way. childish and unprofessional off-air comments like “i’ve always wanted to say black balls on tv” as well.

      both incidents were more like repetitive mantra thinly disguised as questions than reporting

  116. infused 118

    Hahaha moment of truth call was gold

  117. lurgee 119

    Laila Harre gets to oversee the destruction of another party. Three hours ago I had respect for her. Now she’s successfully destroyed two leftwing parties.

    • weka 119.1

      remember what I said about the dog in the manger. You’re our little ray of sunshine lurgee, enjoying the left’s demise and incapable of doing anythhing constructive.

      • lurgee 119.1.1

        Do piss off. Where am I ‘enjoying’ anything?

        • Hanswurst 119.1.1.1

          You do seem to be enjoying some “I told you so”. You claim to be a left-winger, but your posts seem more like cheer-leading for electoral gamespersonship. You may very well want a Labour-led government, but your arguments seem to centre around personalities and how electable they are. So if the electorate swung rightwards, I’m betting (on the basis of your comments) that you’d advocate a more right-wing Labour Party.

          • lurgee 119.1.1.1.1

            Where am I ‘enjoying’ anything?

            Where have I advocated ‘personality’ led politics?

            I’d advocate a more victorious Labour party. Because of, you know, Gramsci and all that.

            • Hanswurst 119.1.1.1.1.1

              Where am I ‘enjoying’ anything?

              Here:

              55.9% counted and Labour mustering up some courage and edging up to the big bad 24% mark …
              […]
              Let us know how that goes, old chap. I must say, you’ve done some sterling work. I can see the right just trembling in fear of you.
              […]
              But Labour might make it to 25%!! What a victory for the people’s party!!

              ——————————

              Where have I advocated ‘personality’ led politics?

              here:

              Laila Harre gets to oversee the destruction of another party. Three hours ago I had respect for her. Now she’s successfully destroyed two leftwing parties.

              and here:

              Māori TV commenters giving Harawira a hard time for KDC.
              Quite right, too. Cost him my vote.

              ——————-

              I’d advocate a more victorious Labour party. Because of, you know, Gramsci and all that.

              Looking at your previous posts, you seem to be suggesting that Labour needs to be moving towards the centre for the sole purpose of picking up easy votes. It’s hard to read your posts as advocating anything other than politics by popularity, rather than policy. Your assumption that “socialists” oppose “social democrats” because they think it will get their party votes, rather than because they disagree with their policies is typical of that. You may well be of an entirely different or more nuanced opinion in real life, but you can’t blame others for drawing conclusions on your opinions based on what you write yourself.

              • lurgee

                That’s a very long post achieving nothing.

                You mistake dark humour for ‘enjoying’ the destruction of the left.

                You mistake criticising a twice failed politician, and regarding association with Dotcom as a strategic disaster, for advocating ‘personality politics.’ Quite the opposite, I’d have thought.

                It is quite hard to win elections with unpopular policies. Acknowledging that the centre is important is not about ‘picking up easy votes’ but actually creating a popular coalition of voters. Guess what! Most New Zealanders are not Socialists and will not vote for a left-wing platform. They might be inclined to vote centre-left, however.

                As long as people keep denying this, last night will likely be repeated on a three yearly basis forever.

  118. Bob 120

    I think the lefts problem was not enough protests like ‘not our future’ to get the public on side. Oh well, always next time.

  119. chris73 121

    As Mike Moore said: The people are always right

  120. Disturbed 122

    To my Napier my home, Thank you all for voting Stuart Nash back in to make Napier a labour strong hold once again.

    It has historically always been a labour stronghold since the first labour government of Michael Joseph Savage came along in 1937.

    Stuart Nash’s Grandfather visited Napier as Prime Minister in the 1950’s and with Stuart Nash proudly carrying on the tradition of Labour gives us confidence in Napier’s future.

    • lurgee 122.1

      Boag is tipping him for the Labour leadership, given that all the current contenders lost the party vote in their electorates …

    • phillip ure 122.2

      thank garth mcvicar..he split the right vote..which enabled nash to win..

      ..were he not there..national wd have won..

      • Disturbed 122.2.1

        Phillip,
        Garth didn’t split the right vote entirely.

        It was a 40/60 right take because Garth has always been outspoken on crime in Napier.

        What caused the flee to Garth was due to National’s plan of closing the Napier Police station entirely.

        Out of a city of almost 60 000 it was this that really drove voters both left & right to McVicar, – purely on the loss of our police station.

    • Melb 122.3

      Napier a Labour stronghold? Ha! You may want to check the party votes. National’s tally was double that of Labour.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 122.4

      Still is a labour stronghold, in Napier City itself.

      You forget the provincial cities have expanded into the rural areas that surround them now under MMP with larger pop quotas required.
      Just that Nash was lucky the boundary went to Wairoa.

  121. sabine 123

    well for what it is worth
    i voted labour and i enjoyed it.

    as for the national years coming up i will think of this

    don’t look at me
    i voted for the other guy

  122. Dont worry. Be happy 124

    Ok guys. First rule of grown ups….write your bitter angry letters/ emails….then biff them. Respect…even if just for yourself.

  123. Guesting 125

    1) thank you for your service, and your voice.
    2) I am anxious for NZ’s future.
    3) keep dogging Key about being absent from his job. (ffs “it wasn’t me, it was my office” ?!?)

    The election may be over, but the Left’s job is to overturn operation normal Dirty Politics of MSM being National’s propaganda machine.

  124. Liberal Realist 126

    New Zealand you reap what you sow. Key & National will fuck this country up in the next 3 years – if you thought the last 6 years was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    The result as it stands now is an unmitigated disaster for the Left. Labour have completely fucked this one up – thanks ABC crowd, most of you have kept your jobs but NZ is worse off for it and is now up for a wholesale ‘rogering’ by the right.

    Taking a cynical, pessimistic but realistic view, I now have serious doubts that Key and National will be ever held to account for Dirty Politics and mass surveillance. The use of State power will now be used to smear National’s opponents as a matter of course. MSM will now get even closer to the Key government, cheerleading for 2017 will begin tomorrow. Sycophantic MSM could keep National is power for a generation.

    With the media, business and the majority of the sheeple onside in greater numbers National will now consider their reelection a mandate to do what ever they like. Key will tick the TPPA box, achieving the goal his paymasters assigned him to complete. Watch out for sedition laws (if Finny gets his way we’re all fucked) and the pace of the erosion of democratic principals increase at an exponential rate.

    IMO NZ was at a crossroads and has now taken the path which will see us have right wing governments for a generation – where this path will end up I don’t know but it’s fucken scary! In the extreme, we may not live in a democracy in 20 years time. Say goodbye to any sense or hint of egalitarianism in our society and future political paradigm.

    Who’s ready for Judith Collins or Stephen Joyce as PM?

    • Draco T Bastard 126.1

      +111

    • Lanthanide 126.2

      I’m honestly not convinced that there has been any mass surveillance – at least by the GCSB.

      Key is correct in that he can’t control what other countries do, but that we do have an agreement not to spy on each other, so we can only presume that the other countries have abided by that agreement.

      Greenwald / Snowden simply didn’t deliver the necessary proof.

      • Colonial Viper 126.2.1

        ?

        what level of “proof” are you looking for? The XKEYSCORE tool can be applied to a full NZ data set. Why is that difficult to understand.

        Key is correct in that he can’t control what other countries do, but that we do have an agreement not to spy on each other, so we can only presume that the other countries have abided by that agreement.

        Sorry, that is as weak as dishwater. I want a NZ government which does more than that, thanks.

      • lurgee 126.2.2

        The result as it stands now is an unmitigated disaster for the Left. Labour have completely fucked this one up – thanks ABC crowd, most of you have kept your jobs but NZ is worse off for it and is now up for a wholesale ‘rogering’ by the right.

        Yes. That’s what we need. Even more schismatic insanity. That’s why the voters rejected the left. We weren’t divided enough.

        • Liberal Realist 126.2.2.1

          “Yes. That’s what we need. Even more schismatic insanity. That’s why the voters rejected the left. We weren’t divided enough.”

          The Labour Party has been in the midst of ‘schismatic insanity’ since Clark resigned.

          Labour need to learn that they need to collaborate with each other and the other left parties, not fuck each other over? The left will never win again until Labour learn this little nugget of truth.

      • Eog Leife 126.2.3

        They haven’t been wrong yet. Until you open your eyes you’ll see nothing.

        • Lanthanide 126.2.3.1

          Sure, but they don’t have proof on this score.

          Sorry, but I’m not going to “trust” them based on their record.

  125. lurgee 127

    Cunliffe stayed put for ages. He must have been watching the percentages to see if he could survive. What was his ‘hang on’ figure??????????????????????

  126. Vaughan Little 128

    I’m following this from China.

    Lived here since last year. I spent 2 years looking for work in NZ and I got a part time job that along with the dole still didn’t cover my bills. Spent less than two hours online looking for work in China before I found the lead for my first job here.

    I’d love to be back in NZ but employment-wise, the door seems to be closed. And China definitely has its plusses.

    I wanna say thanks heaps to the people who blog at the standard, and (most of) the people who post comments. and to L/Iprent for running it. You guys have been my main way of staying in touch with NZ politics in the runup to the election. And staying in touch is a big deal when you’re this far from home.

    You make me proud to be left.

  127. ScottGN 129

    Has Labour lost Jacinda Adern? Who else has been lost tonight?

    • Lanthanide 129.1

      No, she gets on the list, just barely.

      Andrew Little is their next list MP who is currently out. Specials could be enough to get him in.

  128. Gareth 130

    The Electoral Commission website says that with 98.3% of the results in, the total number of votes counted is 2,092,108.

    Last time I checked, the population of NZ was 4,537,081.

    Has the missing million become the missing 2.5 million?

    • David H 130.1

      Labour is Dead R.I.P

    • Ants 130.2

      Minus at least 800,000 under 18’s

    • Billygoat 130.3

      only 3,100,000 voters total

    • Lanthanide 130.4

      You’re missing 251,000 special votes for starters.

      The % vote count is based on booths, not total vote.

      The total population of NZ is 4.5M, however many of those are under 18, and the enrolment rate is something like 93% of all eligible voters.

      So it’s not a missing 2.5M. I’m too drunk to do any further calculations at this point.

      • wtl 130.4.1

        Based in the number enrolled and including specials, turnout is about 76%, better than 2011, but still significantly below previous elections (80% or more).

        • Lanthanide 130.4.1.1

          Shocking. Wtf is it going to take to get people to vote?

          • Scott1 130.4.1.1.1

            For most of them? Nothing. I think the left has to realize that. Or it can just loose elections from here on in.

          • Liberal Realist 130.4.1.1.2

            Good question.

            How is it that so many New Zealanders vote against their own best interests? Political ignorance is the gift that just keeps on giving to National.

            I think the human condition is such that National will only get voted out once they’ve fucked over enough people’s livelihoods.

            In any event they’ll continue to play nice with the center and keep piling on the punitive policies affecting the working poor. This will just cause further disengagement by this segment of the population, which in turn, will boost National’s fortunes.

  129. Saarbo 131

    My view for what its worth:
    1) Nats successfully convinced Kiwis that they looked after the economy over the GFC and after, their marketing of “steady as she goes”campaign worked bloody well.
    2) Labour need get cohesion in the caucus and needs to get the caucus and members all working together and start campaigning for 2017 NEXT WEEK. Another Leadership change will guarantee the Nats another term in 2017 and Cunliffe was faultless in the election campaign.
    3)Nats Attack Politics works, it has played a part in their success.
    4)Dotcom has turned out to be a fucken disaster for the Left, probably the biggest reason the Left has failed so badly.
    5)Kiwi’s are conservative, not in a Conservative Party sense but in a steady as she goes way, that is why one of the winners today is Labour-Maori. It is also why the Greens have struggled to increase their vote despite being many things that Labour isn’t in terms of cohesion and organisation. So Labour is the only Party that can take large numbers of votes from National.
    6)The media have played a big part in this result but we have seen since Dirty Politics a much fairer media, so lets hope that this continues.
    7)f#$% it.

    • Lanthanide 131.1

      +1

      Would still like to see a 4% threshold.

      • lurgee 131.1.1

        2% at the highest. Or even 1%. If New Zealanders want to vote for silly parties in large numbers (National, ACT, Conservative) they get the parliament they deserve.

        • Lanthanide 131.1.1.1

          Personally I’m in favour of:
          * 4% threshold
          * Coat-tailing of 1 list MP for each electorate MP won

          So if you win 1 electorate and get 3.9% vote, you’d get 2 MPs. That is a nice balance between proportionality and allowing small parties to get a toe-hold in parliament. It’s probably too complex for the voting public at large, though.

          • lurgee 131.1.1.1.1

            Mana polled 5 times as much as United Future. The Conservatives polled EIGHTEEN times more than United Future. guess which party gets an MP?

            The threshold is an insanity. But we live in an insane world, where Key’s government appears t be getting more popular …

            • Lanthanide 131.1.1.1.1.1

              The point of the threshold is to keep extremist / narrowly supported parties out of parliament. It’s hard to argue that IMP, ALCP, Ban1080 aren’t extremist / narrowly supported parties.

              On the other hand, we want to have local representatives for each electorate, which by definition requires a local representative to be elected into parliament, regardless of what party vote whatever party they are standing for might have garnered.

              My two proposal together allow for a lower threshold, while also allowing smaller parties that are popular in a geographic location to realise some of their potential in parliament. But it also would help to prevent rorts as we’ve seen with Act. I think National were still hoping Act would return 2-3 MPs this time, and once again they only got 1 in.

              • lurgee

                United Future and ACT are just as ‘extreme’ as Mana or IMP. UF got less than the Cannibas party and just about saw off the electoral steamroller known as the Ban 1080 Party. Why the Helling F*** should this dead end non-Party have a voice in a parliament that is supposed to represent New Zealand? It represents, at best, Peter Dunne’s mind, because I am quite utterly empirically certain he does not actually decide anything for himself, so it would make perfect sense for him to be a minority even in his own (numb) skull. But as for NZ as a whol, he is a minority nothing even within the ranks of other minority nothings and should take his place at the way, way, way, back of the end of the arse of the queue for representation.

                If we vote for it, we should live with it. End of story.

                • Lanthanide

                  “United Future and ACT are just as ‘extreme’ as Mana or IMP.”

                  You missed the part where I said:
                  “On the other hand, we want to have local representatives for each electorate, which by definition requires a local representative to be elected into parliament, regardless of what party vote whatever party they are standing for might have garnered.”

                  • lurgee

                    I’d suggest the electoral bar is not being set high enough, and the national bar too high.

                    Could we agree on a 3% party vote threshold?

            • lprent 131.1.1.1.1.2

              However United Future didn’t get a party into power – doesn’t happen with 4k votes. What they got was the 12k votes to put Peter Dunne in a multi-way split vote on an electorate seat.

              Internet Mana got 26k votes. Hone got 3.3k of those in his seat, 1.9k came from the electorate that Annette Sykes stood for. Both electorate MP’s got electorate votes that were double the party vote and Hone nearly won his. The only threshold that could have allowed the IMP through was one where there really wasn’t a threshold.

              The Conservatives are the only one of your examples that would have benefited from the drop in the threshold to 3% or 4% as per various commissions that looked at the threshold.

              There is something quite confused about your argument…

              • lurgee

                According to the Electoral Results, UF got 4,533 votes and one MP.

                Mana got 25,539, and no MPs.

                The Conservatives got 86,616 votes, and no MPs.

                I may be drunk but I am not confused.

    • Tangled_up 131.2

      Pretty much this.

    • Ant 131.3

      Yeah this is what I think, Cunliffe’s rating was going up, would be another mistake to ditch him.

      Right about Dotcom, he drew out a reactive vote because he placed himself against Key directly. IMP drew fuckall votes, targeted youth, youth stayed at home. Best bet is all those votes are the same Mana voters from 2011.

    • Liberal Realist 131.4

      +100. Great analysis.

  130. Lanthanide 132

    Well I’m glad Carmel Sepuloni got back in.

  131. burt 133

    Cunliffe starts that it’s great money can’t buy an election then ends that National bought the election. What’s with that !

  132. Harry Holland 134

    Peter Dunne for speaker?

    • Lanthanide 134.1

      Hah. Peter Dunne is an overhang seat – not a very pretty position to be in. On current results, he only got 200 more party votes than Ban1080, a plankton party with no presence whatsoever, and half the votes of ALCP, whose only policy he is vehehmently against.

      I think Dunne will retire at 2017.

      • politikiwi 134.1.1

        Could’ve been rid of him if Greens candidate voters gave their electorate vote to Labour – same as last election.

        • Lanthanide 134.1.1.1

          Labour needs to fucking grow up and co-operate with other parties. They can’t carry on like they’re the #1 opposition party any more. Co-operate with the greens, agree on which electorates they’ll fight for, and do it properly.

          • Liberal Realist 134.1.1.1.1

            Agreed, until Labour learn to collaborate strategically with the other left parties they will remain in opposition with their numbers ever decreasing, while National screws the country.

    • Eog Leife 134.2

      It doesn’t matter who’s speaker; if the last one’s anything to go by, he’ll let Key and his cronies get away with murder. At least Smith was fair.

    • lurgee 134.3

      He speaks for 0.22 per cent of the population. If he had any decency, he would give up his seat to Colin Craig or Hone Harawira or anyone else who achieved a greater share of the vote.

  133. Harry Holland 135

    2011 turnout 2,257,336
    2014 turnout 2,104,208 with 99.2% of booths returned

  134. Sanctuary 136

    Labour’s defeat in the provinces and suburbs is absolute and devastating. Labour’s mix is all wrong, it cannot carry on being the party for Pt Chevalier liberals.

    Turf out the old guard MPs, who lack the hunger and urgency they had 20 years ago, and stop doing things like selecting gay Maori weather presenters to run in conservative provincial seats like Rotorua, or a feminist academic in provincial Rangitikei where the supercilious Deborah Russell was an invisible candidate and got thrashed.

    Cunliffe should remain leader for now, but the next year is going to be one of a major power struggle to re-balance the Labour party back towards working New Zealanders and away from the identity politics that is destroying its broad base and appeal.

    • Ant 136.1

      A harsh selection process would help as well, what happened with some of those fill-in Safe blue seat candidates was unacceptable and can’t be repeated.

      • Sanctuary 136.1.1

        Labour’s problem is that it it cannot afford to admit it is now a minor party in many provincial areas, so they need to run a full card – and in some places, that is leading to absolute idiots being selected.

  135. infused 137

    time to find all of oabs posts about how labour was going to win

    • chris73 137.1

      I wonder how many will admit that the right wing posters were right after all

      • Scott1 137.1.1

        Over there there were lots of people predicting ACT would get Jamie and some friends in. They were drunk on their own delusions.

    • Lanthanide 137.2

      I don’t think it was an unfair belief.

      In 2008 and 2011 the polls over-estimated National by about 10% of their final result. If we had had that again, they would have been on ~45% tonight, which if the conservatives had failed to reach 5% (as they did in this reality), would have been low enough for Labour to win.

      • lprent 137.2.1

        If we had had that again, they would have been on ~45% tonight

        That was what was surprising. However the rest of the right vote was gutted outside of National. Apart from the conservatives, and they failed to reach the threshold. Because the conservatives didn’t reach the threshold, they are able to govern on their own BUT have no margin in the house – which would make them subject to any grandstanding National MP.

        Effectively National will be working with three shell parties. Two of those parties are maintained directly by them in an electoral vote spilt. The other scraping a second MP by the narrowest of margins and with a good probability of losing the second in the special vote redistributions.

        I don’t think that they will be able to reach a deal with NZ First

        • Hanswurst 137.2.1.1

          I wonder if the Maori Party might not prefer to go onto the cross-benches, especially if they really only end up with one seat. Faced with electoral oblivion, they may conclude that they have a better opportunity of reconnecting with their voter base if they can spend three years unbound by a collective agreement with National and able to shout their own policies at the top of their lungs. Sure, they campaigned on being “at the table”, but they could legitimately say that that was rejected – and besides, they have three years now to reposition themselves and reconnect.

  136. chris73 138

    Take a look at this roll call:

    Cullen
    Clark
    Goff
    Shearer
    Campbell
    Dot Con
    Hager
    Cunliffe

    Keys still standing, still victorious

    • thatguynz 138.1

      Isn’t it funny how the wingnuts turn up to trumpet their victory. Didn’t see you so much over the past fortnight when it was looking iffy mate?

      • infused 138.1.1

        personally busy with work

        • Hanswurst 138.1.1.1

          So right-wing trolls only go to work when National’s getting hammered? Lazy bastards.

          • ghostwhowalksnz 138.1.1.1.1

            They are working for the national party, electorate agents , beehive.

            Even Lvl9_beehivegovnz seem to have dropped out of sight during campaign!

        • thatguynz 138.1.1.2

          Oddly enough mate you weren’t the one I was targeting that at but thanks for confirming your credentials 😉 Equally oddly you periodically come out with things I agree with so I hadn’t entirely put you in the RWNJ bucket lol.

      • chris73 138.1.2

        Was banned until the election so a bit hard to comment

        • thatguynz 138.1.2.1

          Hard to believe why. Seemingly you’re a sanctimonious prick so that could possibly be it. Whilst I don’t think the next term will last this long, enjoy your 3 years of self serving indulgence. You clearly think you’ve earned it.

          • chris73 138.1.2.1.1

            Just so you know I’m more in touch with what NZ wants, I know NZ better then you and what NZ wants, overwhelmingly, is more John Key

            National have a mandate now that no one can deny

            • thatguynz 138.1.2.1.1.1

              You’ve just done wonders to disavow the “sanctimonious prick” comment haven’t you? You purport to know what the voting public of NZ says they want which is fine however it’s based on the information put in front of them. I was truly hoping to avoid the “I told you so” scenario. Let’s just see how the next 3 years pan out shall we?

              Caveat – I doubt the next electoral duration will be 3 years.

              • chris73

                “I told you so”

                – Go back to my previous posts and I was telling all and sundry John Key would wing

                • thatguynz

                  Have you been drinking? Try re-reading my post and commenting again. My “I told you so” scenario relates to all of Nationals fuck ups and how they will come back to bite them – hence my caveat of noting that they will not last the next 3 year cycle.

                  I do however agree – your rimming of John Key has been apparent for all to see.

  137. lurgee 139

    Judith Collins retuned with a majority of almost 5000. The icing on tonight’s cake of shit.

    • blue leopard 139.1

      lolz

      • lurgee 139.1.1

        Actually, with more time to consider the strategic situation, the return of Collins to the front bench is the best outcome we can hope for … Should make 2017 a walk in the (red) park.

        • Lanthanide 139.1.1.1

          BF is of the opinion that a Labour government with them on anything less than 30% was untenable and that they needed to lose this election.

          But I don’t think he was expecting National to increase their vote, either.

          • lurgee 139.1.1.1.1

            I’ve been arguing that hereabouts for three years and been called all-sorts for my efforts. Our disagreements about electoral thresholds not withstanding, please burn your boyfriend at the stake for daring to suggest a coalition of 51 parties all polling 1% is not as viable as one party polling 51%.

            • Lanthanide 139.1.1.1.1.1

              Er, no, his point is that for Labour to be seen as a legitimate government by the public, and on that basis go on to win 2017, would not be served if they formed a government with less than 30% of the vote.

              Of course 51 parties with 1% each would be a “viable” government, in the sense that they would hold a majority in Parliament. But there’s more to governance than simply holding a majority of the seats.

              • lurgee

                * rolls eyes *

                Hyperbole.

                • thatguynz

                  *rolls eyes* how about we actually embrace true MMP instead of “FPP lite”..

                  • lurgee

                    In fairness to Lan, I accept the idea that strong local voices should be able to win representation. It’s a good check on the centralised party structure. But I think the balance id tilted too far in favour of electorates. 5% is too high a threshold. 3% might be to high, 2% too low, but it is certainly saner than 5%.

                    • thatguynz

                      I agree – I’m happy with a low threshold and working on the premise that Crazy Colin would get in (c’est la vie) but I’m not sure that the general populace are ready for a true MMP scenario.. They’d have to reconcile the notion that coalitions are natural and that seems to be anathema to what they voted for tonight..

          • Hanswurst 139.1.1.1.2

            I think that that also has a lot to do with other aspects of the narrative. It should have been made far clearer that a vote for the Greens was a vote for a Labour-led government with Cunliffe at the helm. The Greens appear to have floated that, but Labour rebuffed it.
            I think it likely that, if people had seen a strong Green Party as evidence of Labour’s viability, rather than as evidence of its weakness, Labour’s polling would have improved. Labour’s strategists, of course, reached the collective conclusion that associating too strongly with the Greens would cause them to be seen as extremists. I’m not convinced.
            In future (as in starting now), the entire opposition should frame themselves as a competent collective marketplace of ideas.

            • Lanthanide 139.1.1.1.2.1

              Joyce said the reason they didn’t endorse the Conservatives is because it would then give people a reason to vote for them, when National (rightly) wanted to get as much party vote for themselves. Maybe the Labour strategy was the same? Of course what works for a party polling 48%+ doesn’t necessarily work for a party polling 30% (or less).

      • ghostwhowalksnz 139.1.2

        Not its not icing when her total vote has DROPPED by 4000.

        2011- Collins 18000
        2014 Collins 14000

        Plus once cabinet is announced shell still just be a back bencher

    • lprent 139.2

      Judith Collins retuned with a majority of almost 5000.

      Compared to the nearly 10k majority that she had in 2011? Conservative voters are exactly that. To see them desert a conservative MP means that they have either been given instructions to do so or they are pretty damn disgusted with them.

  138. Instauration 140

    The majority of people are mediocre.
    Where do you see yourself in the Bell Curve ?

  139. dave 141

    what will get them to vote economic collapse

  140. Scott1 142

    The weird thing is that it seems logically that you should seriously consider voting against the candidate standing for your party in your electorate because to vote him in means that you push off a person from your parties list. But your party put that person on the list because they selected from all their candidates and they think that person is a better candidate than the one you have.

    So Arden or whoever gets axed and you get the guy who was selected in your local area from a much smaller pool of candidates.

  141. infused 143

    3 more years

  142. cogito 144

    🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    Three more years of lies and corruption.

  143. weka 145

    “Logan ‏@LogiBeer88 3 mins
    @five15design @kaupapa Left too ‘principled’ to vote strategically. They campaign as if they already live in the ideal utopia of liberalism.”

  144. It’s official, I live in the stupidest country in the world.

  145. rich the other 147

    Yes , Yes ,oh ,yes .
    I fore cast six months ago and again two days ago on this site , National will govern alone .
    The reasons are obvious to those who are prepared to put obsession aside .
    In a few days I intend to post my reasoning , starting with the stupidity of labour in allowing the greens to undermine their relevance .
    NZ has seen through the b s .

    • Lanthanide 147.1

      Well on tonights vote, they don’t govern alone.

      National won 61 seats in a parliament of 121. They need 62 seats for a majority. Luckily they have their lap-dogs ACT to pass any right-wing twaddle they want.

      Still, there is, yet again, the chance that the Greens will snooker a seat once the specials are counted.

      • Cancerman 147.1.1

        How is 61 out of 121 not a majority?

      • nadis 147.1.2

        Math refresher:

        (121-1)/2=60 National require 61 seats to govern alone.

        But if the greens pick up one seat on special votes it is likely to come from national, then you’d be right.

        But I think this time special votes will be less influential as alot of what used to be special votes are now advance votes.

        • ghostwhowalksnz 147.1.2.1

          Not going to happen like last time.

          Special votes by and large are those not voting in their electorate, this would be students mostly.
          This is where Greens had their edge.

  146. chris73 148

    What a speech by John Key, I have never been more proud of my fellow kiwis then I am now

  147. Blue 149

    Don’t be downhearted my friends. Being a lefty means election night will leave you crying into your beer more often than not. You don’t become a lefty because it’s popular, you do it because it’s right.

    I’m surprised and disappointed – the mood on the ground for me was not at all reflected in the result tonight. But apparently I move in rarefied circles and I am out of touch with ordinary New Zealanders. That’s okay with me – if this is what New Zealanders truly want then I can’t say I understand or share their values.

    My values haven’t changed because the rest of New Zealand rejects them. I’m still for a fair, decent, inclusive society where every Kiwi gets a fair shot at the Kiwi dream. I’m not into corruption or dirty politics or beating up on poor people. I don’t get John Key’s appeal and I probably never will. I still believe that a pay rise is always better than a tax cut. I take heart that most Kiwis must not be badly off if they are voting for National in droves.

    In a sea of bad news there are a few things I’m thankful for. The Standard, for one. I congratulate Stuart Nash, Kelvin Davis, Peeni Henare, Adrian Rurawhe and Carmel Sepuloni, our new electorate MPs. I am glad that Colin Craig and the Conservatives will remain outside Parliament. I am heartened that the vote in Ohariu and Auckland Central was so damn close. I am happy that National will not be able to policy-mine Act in pretend ‘coalition negotiations’. And I am amused that Epsom is now stuck with a complete turnip for an electorate MP for the next three years when they didn’t have to 😀

    • Hami Shearlie 149.1

      Turnips – Hmm, I’ve always found them to be an unusual shape, sometimes watery, lacking in taste and oomphh, and a vegetable that only appeals to the very few!!! Hey, you are really spot-on Blue!

    • lurgee 149.2

      We’re left because we’re right?

      No wonder we always lose, with slogans like that.

      Still good on you for admitting that your immediate sphere might not be typical of New Zealand as a whole. But I disagree with your happiness at the exclusion of the conservatives. 1 in 5 New Zealnders voted for them, but their voice will not be heard. NINETEEN TIMES AS MANY VOTED CONSERVATIVE AS VOTED UNITED FUTURE – but United Future has a voice in parliament. This is profoundly undemocratic and wrong. I hate what the Conservatives say, but I hate the way they are being ‘put to silence’ even more. That 5% threshold hurts the left far more than the right. It allows the Labour party to continue in its selfish delusion that it is all there is (the greens being, as far as Labour is concerned, merely an annex of the Labour party). It destroyed the Alliance, it has destroyed Mana, it will continually squander votes on the left. We’re vibrant and divisive but ultimately we can all work together and unite – if only this idiot threshold wasn’t pushing small parties into the arms of grotesque millionaires and encouraging the main left parties to destroy dissenting left-wing voices.

      • Hanswurst 149.2.1

        NINETEEN TIMES AS MANY VOTED CONSERVATIVE AS VOTED UNITED FUTURE – but United Future has a voice in parliament. This is profoundly undemocratic and wrong.

        No it isn’t. The majority of an electorate voted for Peter Dunne as a voice in a Key-led government. They knew what that looked like and they voted in favour of it. It’s effectively like voting for an independent candidate. Had he pulled in an extra list MP or two, you would have a better point.

        • lurgee 149.2.1.1

          Um … no. If the Conservatives had pulled in 19 MPs, you might have had a better point.

          There are no perfect systems. But MMP with a 5% threshold is manifestly stupidly wrong. 3% (pragmatically) or 2% (ideally) and it might be tolerable.

          • Hanswurst 149.2.1.1.1

            I’m still not seeing how your example supports your point. I agree that the threshold should be lowered, I just don’t see how (effectively) voting in an independent electoral MP highlights that. That could happen just as easily if the threshold were lower. The idea that 3% or 4% should get a party into parliament is an argument for greater proportionality, from which the election of Peter Dunne is an entirely separate issue. Abolishing coattailing would be more relevant, but that doesn’t appear to be what you’re suggesting here.

      • the pigman 149.2.2

        1 in 5 New Zealanders voted for the conservatives?!

        Oh I can’t wait to hear the logic behind this one.

    • Vaughan Little 149.3

      Most of Epsom doesn’t need an electorate MP. If they have a problem they hire a lawyer.

  148. Hami Shearlie 150

    Was I imagining that Steven Joyce looked less than overjoyed? His excitement was very underwhelming, and his talk of approaching Winston Peters when the Nats seem to already have a good majority with Dunne, Seymour and Flavell is most suspicious! What bombshell does Steven Joyce know is going to come out? Steven Joyce knows all the secrets. Does he want Winston as part of the Govt so that Winston can’t attack the Nats in Parliament when the lastest big lump of dirt emerges?? Steven Joyce’s usual overconfident smirk and arrogant smug manner were missing altogether. Did anyone else notice this?

    • Cancerman 150.1

      I reckon just laying ground work for next election should Winston still be around.

    • Saarbo 150.2

      @hami

      Agree, I wonder if Joyce has done some polling which shows that he is perceived as “smug” and “arrogant”, and if he is to be successful as the Leader of National he will have to “tone it down”. But I think on the back of this Key will have a go at a 4th term.

  149. monty 151

    I am sooooo pleased that such an utterly odious person as Lynn Prentice is hopefully tossed off this blog for LIFE. FUCK YOU CREEP!

    [lprent: FYI, I was thinking about leaving if the left managed to form a government. Now I guess that I will be running it for another 3 years.

    But as you are aware, I do try to reflect how people look to others back to them with a multiplier. Bye bye monty, you are on the LIFE list ]

    • infused 151.1

      wut

    • travellerev 151.2

      WTF? Lynn Prentiss owns this blog. And for all his faults he most certainly is not a creep. Go wash your mouth!

      • Ants 151.2.1

        To be fair, the Labour Party own this blog, given the $$$ they put into it. It is a mouthpiece.

        LP is the administrator.

        [lprent: To be fair you are a lazy pig-ignorant dickhead who hasn’t read the about. (BTW: Has anyone else noticed that people who use that phrase “To be fair” are usually about to lie by omission and innuendo?)

        The Labour party have never put a cent into this site in 7 years (not that I’d want them to do so). If you read the about you will find that I largely paid for it myself where required (with slowly increasing donations from readers and authors) until early 2010. The costs of growing traffic and server costs started to exceed my ability to easily keep paying for it while I was dealing with a leaky home. Since then the adverts have mostly paid for it as the costs kept rising.

        Right now the site owes my bank account something like $800 (I haven’t had time to calc for it fully in the last month). That is due to very late arriving advertising revenue and a couple of UFBs that I brought to maintain the power supply.

        However I have also managed to drop its $600-$700 per month running cost to $330 last month. That was despite a a near doubling of traffic and was due to spending a sizeable chunk of my 6 weeks holiday paid time between jobs in dropping the data transfer from about 1TB/month to about 400GB/mo (despite rising traffic) by pruning everything that was increasing the transfer.

        This month the traffic has jumped by 50%, but further site improvements mean that the cost for the month will drop to roughly $270. The downside is that that site’s main server is now running on my personal home development box because that was what I had available (with 8 fast watercooled cores, 24GB of RAM, and 512GB of SSD) when I finally got fibre into my home.

        It is a hell of a lot of work, and something that no political party could really afford my time (or interest) to do.

        Quite simply the Labour party wouldn’t know what in the hell to do with something like this site. Their best attempt was Red Alert which was destroyed by newbies (MPs) not understanding the social trust relationship required for a blog site.

        It’d also have cost them an order of magnitude more to run at a technical level than this does. The party is made up (by my standards) of technophobes. So they’d have had to have paid for the expertise. After all I don’t charge for my very expensive time.

        The reason I do it, and why most if not all of its authors do it, is because it is a tool that the left needs to have. It needs to be pretty independent of all of the political parties, unions, rather strange MPs, their supporters, and their media people. The bad habits of building silo complexes to protect themselves from each other and their mutual interdependencies requires it.

        There needs to be an avenue for people of the overall labour and green movements to talk to each other that bypasses all of those in a reasonably non-real-life manner. The Standard trust and I provide that. Many in Labour, Greens, unions, and the media find it disconcerting because authors and commenters aren’t exactly nice to anyone and it is a communications device that bypasses everyones control systems.

        And you are banned permanently for being a pig-ignorant dickhead who doesn’t read the about or policy on a site, and who instead lies about the operator of the site because you are too much of a lazy fuckwit to look it up. ]

  150. Sans Cle 152

    Any appetite for Greens and Labour to merge, or at least coordinate just one from either party contesting each electorate? Splitting each electorate has National laughing all the way to the Beehive.

  151. Reddelusion 153

    The message for the left

    Focus on what the silent majority are focussed on, not those who shout the loudest

    Less hate of John key, he’s not a monster nor is the national policy far right, stop trying to convince the populace of such

    Labour needs to get rid of the identity and factional politics,

    Labour needs to refresh, you can’t do that with the dinosaurs you have

    Labour needs to regain the centre, you can’t do that been owned by the unions or having greens as a to stronger influence on any coalition

    Get some decent professionals running you party, your broke,

  152. venezia 154

    You guys are forgetting the lessons of Watergate. Nixon won a landslide victory – until the Law caught up with him. Then he was a goneburger. Just wait…….

  153. venezia 155

    It is clear that voters on the left split their votes. Voters on the right did what they were told – Party vote National. In addition, the resources National had at their disposal were awesome compared to the left. Examples are the pamphlet bombing, the huge number of billboards, the automated phone calls with John Key’s voice telling voters how important it was to give National the Party vote. Everyone I know had one of these.

  154. Beasely petes 156

    The greens were always only going to get between 10-11%, why did people think
    otherwise?

  155. D'Esterre 157

    @ venezia: “You guys are forgetting the lessons of Watergate. Nixon won a landslide victory – until the Law caught up with him. Then he was a goneburger.”

    True. Of course, that presupposes that any enquiries into the issues flushed out by “Dirty Politics” will have terms of reference which allow them to get to the bottom of them. The US, this ain’t…

    Three more years of no new policies except more bennie-bashing, a PM who neither looks, sounds nor acts like one, and an electorate MP who’s flip-flopped so often he might as well be a jandal, is bad enough, but it’s the corruption that’s worst! How on earth could New Zealanders, despite knowing about it, have voted them back in?

    Oh yes, all right: answer my own question: the triumph of propaganda over inconvenient and decidedly less glossy facts.

  156. coolas 158

    I’m gutted. So is the RMA, LGA, and OIA.

    • Lanthanide 158.1

      +1

    • Cancerman 158.2

      RMA will be gone by lunchtime 🙂

      • Lanthanide 158.2.1

        It’s still going to be there – Act got 1 seat, not 60.

        It’s just going to be gutted.

    • Hanswurst 158.3

      There is a slim hope of stopping much of that. If the fallout from Dirty Politics continues, if more whistleblowers come forward on misuse of the OIA etc., if Slater is made to reveal his sources and that asks uncomfortable questions, then individual National MPs may be increasingly unwilling to support controversial legislation that could hurt them at the ballot box in future. That could also lead to more leaks, which could lead to the Government getting hammered in parliament, which could result in gladiatorial, headline-grabbing antics that the media in their advertising-hungry ways can’t ignore, regardless of their natural affiliations. It would soon build to a vicious circle and severely dent the Right’s ability to push its policies through.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 158.3.1

        Slater is not going to be made to reveal his sources.

        Thats a smokescreen about SIS IG. he will refuse to talk details claiming his rights as a
        ‘jonolist’

        Even now on his website , his wife SB, is vowing revenge of Martin Bradbury, of the nasty kind as you would expect.

  157. Ian 159

    Je reste avec vous!

  158. millsy 160

    3 good things for the left about this election:

    1) ?
    2) See #1
    3) See #1

    An absolute pasting here. The only thing red is the blood up the walls and on the floor. Labour absolutely smashed to bits, the Greens just holding on, and Internet-Mana sinks without trace.

    At least the Conservatives didnt make it, and we have good old Winston and his merry men looking for a fight.

    Welcome back Stuart Nash and Carmel Sepuloni, and it is good to see the Maori seats bar one returning to the Labour fold.

    Its going to be a long 3 years, that’s for sure.

    As for what Labour and the left need to do, Ill leave that for all the others to discuss, and given that everyone is going to have their opinion, I dont think mine is really needed.

    And one more thing for Kelvin Davis: The people of TTT have seen you fit to choose you to represent them. Dont let them down.

    And on that note — this is me, signing off for a bit, Am taking a break from political commentary for a while. Ill be back sometime between now and 2017…

  159. Bob 161

    People here thought Cunliffe didn’t move far enough to the left……read this election result carefully, maybe, just maybe Josie Pagani was right. Of course she is just some RWNJ though……

    • millsy 161.1

      So you think Labour should campaign to ban unions, slash wages, axe smoko breaks and Americanise healthcare and privatise schools?

    • Lanthanide 161.2

      This result can be read two ways: Labour was too left, or not left enough.

      Too left: centrists voted for National instead
      Not left enough: centrists had no reason to rock the boat and divert from National because Labour didn’t offer any real change

    • SPC 161.3

      Why would people get out of bed for National lite Labour?

      • Scott1 161.3.1

        Keep in mind that the right see National as labour lite. So apparently this election proves it works.

        • SPC 161.3.1.1

          Labour is more ambitious than National, do Labour MP’s want to confront child poverty and inequality or have Cabinet roles in a National lite regime?

          If Labour won’t stand for anything they will not get National to do things like extending medical to age 13 and the increase in parental leave etc.

    • Draco T Bastard 161.4

      According to Twitter we’ve had the lowest voter turnout in ~125 years.

  160. burt 162

    If Winston and National wanted to they could form a government with over 75% which would allow them to do absolutely anything they wanted. Such is the failure of the left in this election.

    • lurgee 162.1

      Our greatest triumph has been holding the rampant forces of the right, possessed of all the means of ideologival production, to a snivelling 50% of the vote. This is your Stalingrad, and your D Day, and your Thermidor, and your whatever else you care to name, all rolled into one and presented to you, smeared in excremental discharges, as a victory feast. Chow down, the right. And don’t forget to say please when you beg for more in 2017.

    • Lanthanide 162.2

      Not sure how you get to “over 75%” with 9% + 48%…

    • Draco T Bastard 162.3

      Last time I looked 48% + 9% = 57%. To get anything close to 75% National would have to form a coalition with National.

      Although, considering the result of their stupidity, they pretty much did.

  161. Fred 163

    Never thought I would be so ashamed of being a kiwi. I now live in one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Tia country is now completely f’d !

    • Ants 163.1

      lol, so you disagree with most of the country and have decided that everyone else is corrupt and you aren’t.

      I bet you use the term ‘sheeple’ a lot when you are trying to argue points.

      • travellerev 163.1.1

        48% of 67% is not the majority. The million who did not vote, voted with their feet. Dirty Politics succeeded and cognitive resonance did the rest.

        • rightofleftcentre 163.1.1.1

          There’s an amazing arrogance on the left – “sheeple are so dumb they know not what they do”, “the right is so corrupt, we are so noble and pure”.
          Get over it. It’s called democracy. The people have spoken. At least those who weren’t so lazy they got off their butts and voted. Says it all really.

          • locus 163.1.1.1.1

            I love democracy – it’s going to give kiwis the right to have an independent investigation that you can’t just pretend away..

            It’s a bit of a shame you conservatives and righties don’t want to question corruption and abuse of power. Don’t fret though, we’ll be back to fix up the mess you make of NZ.

    • Higherstandard 163.2

      🙄

  162. mikesh 165

    I guess we can kiss a public broadcasting channel goodbye for next term. Three more years of putting up with Hosking, Henry, etc..

  163. chris73 166

    To David Cunliffe:

    Its not your turn now and it won’t be until 2020 (at least)

    • ghostwhowalksnz 166.1

      hello, those who were with English, Brownlee, Ryall in 2002 and 20% were still there in 2014 at 48%.
      You may have noticed there was only ‘one’ addition.

      • burt 166.1.1

        Hello, 2002 till 2008 when national were elected is the same amount of time between 2014 & 2020 !

  164. ploompi 167

    My view, for what it’s worth: the result is a combination of siding with the underdog and a stubborn resistance to perceived manipulation. If you weren’t paying much attention it would seem that every day there’s been another attack on that nice pm chap. It would be natural to assume the attacks were being orchestrated by the opposition parties (the “manipulators”) who brought foreigners in to interfere with our election. Hope that doesn’t sound too silly but it’s the only way I can reconcile the majority agreeing that inequality is a problem and that child poverty is a very bad thing and yet voting as they did. Of course I’m biased and think NZrs are still fundamentally decent.

    Wonder what will happen when they find out they’ve been had.

  165. Dont worry. Be happy 168

    To Mr LPrent. I hope that you are feeling better. That damn sore throat, cough, headache, chills virus is a shocker. I hope this for your own sake …..and ours.

  166. Richies McClaw 169

    Dotcom is the best thing to ever happen to National.

    It takes a hell of a terrible image for you to have the worlds leading journalist/whistleblower combination to come out and make statements that were extremely damaging to the incumbents in other countries and it turning out to help the incumbent party.

    • travellerev 169.1

      Cognitive dissonance is a terrible thing, When reality sets in you hang on to your beliefs for dear life. Now the waiting for the reality to set in whether you want ot or not has begun. I hope that history judges Kim more kindly than he judges himself right now. I most certainly am grateful for his courage in bringing the truth to New Zealand and for Hone for hooking up with him.

  167. rain33 170

    Just heard David Cunliffe’s final words, being interviewed by Lisa Owen. And Labour wonder why they lost? Seriously, Cunliffe actually blamed everyone else for the loss tonight, and didn’t take any responsibility at all upon himself…none. Would have been nice for him to reflect upon the fact the public kind of sent a message tonight…..but it sounded like Cunliffe thought he was still campaigning.

    Here’s the thing, Cunliffe did not resonate with voters, and he wont, ever. A bit of humility in the face of defeat tonight would have been nice, but no….nothing.

    • Hanswurst 170.1

      Cunliffe is still campaigning. He needs to get awareness of Labour’s platform and personnel up as quickly as possible, and to keep up pressure on the government. If he considers himself to be capable of leading Labour to victory in the next election, there is no reason why he should accept that this loss is his fault; that would be tantamount to saying that he isn’t the right person to lead. He is, and the majority of the Labour membership will confirm their belief in that. There do need to be changes, and Cunliffe is the right person to make them. Nobody else in Labour (or National) can hold a candle to him.

    • Saarbo 170.2

      @rain33

      Wrong. Much more complex than that.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 170.3

      Hatchet jobs run by National behind the curtain of the media havent helped.

      Remember the Donghua Liu donation letter that was a cobble lies about the amount and couldnt be produced when somebody asked for a copy. This was pushed by The Herald, was arranged by National. Dirty Tricks politics as they play it.

    • locus 170.4

      The ‘message’ we are getting is that 49% of NZ voters simply believe that John Key is a good guy.

      There was no swing to Labour – not because David Cunliffe was weak or lacked passion or intelligence.

      There was no need for Cunliffe to be humble about the the lack of voters moving to Labour – this was due to dirty politics and to ‘Dirty Politics’

      Not one national voter wants to read or will believe Dirty Politics. This is because of the timing of Hager’s book, and because most national voters feel that their PM is being bullied – by the left.

      We aren’t going to win by getting angry at national voters or at our leader.

      We’re going to win by getting up tomorrow and continuing to be the better party with better ideas, better policy, the better leader and a detrmination to work together to win people over

      • rightofleftcentre 170.4.1

        “continuing to be the better party with better ideas, better policy, the better leader” wow what’s it like in the parallel universe, locus? If all that you said was true we’d have seen a very different outcome. Breathtaking!

        • locus 170.4.1.1

          i guess you’re right, the majority (just) in NZ did vote for more of the same with john key

          It is indeed ‘breathtaking’ – that the research, data and implications presented in ‘dirty politics’ was not read or simply dismissed by so many….

          but time will tell.

          The mistakes, misuses of power, untruths and selling off of NZ will continue and eventually the consequences will no longer be able to be brushed aside.

          You are most welcome to join our team when you realise you may have been let down by yours

    • rightofleftcentre 170.5

      And acknowledged everyone except his wife. That’s sad.

  168. newsense 171

    from Peters:

    “I think the moral for the Labour Party is that you cannot have this internecine strife where some people put their narrow interests ahead of that of the party or the greater cause. It’s a real lesson for the Labour Party.”

    From Rongotai, the best non-Maori electorate party vote outside West and South Auckland:

    National Party 10,923 FINLAYSON, Christopher NAT 8,095
    Labour Party 10,031 KING, Annette LAB 16,395

    Most electorates seemed to have the Party vote much lower than the candidate’s vote.

  169. DS 172

    Neil Kinnock said it best, about another Tory Government going for its third term. Some things never change:

    “If Margaret Thatcher is re-elected as prime minister on Thursday, I warn you. I warn you that you will have pain – when healing and relief depend upon payment. I warn you that you will have ignorance – when talents are untended and wits are wasted, when learning is a privilege and not a right. I warn you that you will have poverty – when pensions slip and benefits are whittled away by a government that won’t pay in an economy that can’t pay. I warn you that you will be cold – when fuel charges are used as a tax system that the rich don’t notice and the poor can’t afford.

    I warn you that you must not expect work – when many cannot spend, more will not be able to earn. When they don’t earn, they don’t spend. When they don’t spend, work dies. I warn you not to go into the streets alone after dark or into the streets in large crowds of protest in the light. I warn you that you will be quiet – when the curfew of fear and the gibbet of unemployment make you obedient. I warn you that you will have defence of a sort – with a risk and at a price that passes all understanding. I warn you that you will be home-bound – when fares and transport bills kill leisure and lock you up. I warn you that you will borrow less – when credit, loans, mortgages and easy payments are refused to people on your melting income.

    If Margaret Thatcher wins on Thursday, I warn you not to be ordinary. I warn you not to be young. I warn you not to fall ill. I warn you not to get old.”

    • Draco T Bastard 172.1

      +1

      That’s exactly what will happen. National is going to go all out war on the poor just to make the rich richer. This will collapse the economy. Even the Christchurch rebuild won’t be able to hide the recession that NZ is presently in as it deepens into depression.

    • travellerev 172.2

      Nicking that. Thanks for reminding us!

    • Daveinireland 172.3

      Kinnock said that and then, lost, badly.

      • DS 172.3.1

        He said it *because* he knew he would lose badly. He was just stating consequences he was helpless to stop.

  170. Paul 173

    Brand Key 1 NZ nil

  171. Old Tony 174

    My view from right of centre:
    1. Labour had some good original policies. CGT, flexing Kiwisaver rates etc.
    2. Josie Pagani’s view that Labour should have looked to articulate its own interests better rather than going for a “Left Bloc” approach made sense to me.
    3. Failure to renew is a problem.
    4. But I think the biggest issue is that Labour is just not representative anymore. That of course relates to point 2. Focus back on the concerns of the working person and small business and ditch all the stuff that the average punter can’t relate to.

    Good luck. On this side of the line we aren’t all wanting to smash New Zild and enrich ourselves despite what you think….

    • SPC 174.1

      No disagree with most of what Pagani says.

      Last time she said Labour lost in 2011 for offering the WFF tax credits to beneficiaries, now she says it’s a lack of focus on jobs (she must take the National line on MW increases and ending the 90 day rule as being barriers to employment).

      She is resolutely opposed to Labour standing for the poor (child poverty), including
      the low paid worker and the vulnerable in employment.

      She just wants the better economic managers tag with a more active government role brand – it is so limited.

      How many people can a party with aspiration to confront poverty and inequality throw overboard to win power?

  172. Nick 175

    Its a new morning: they happen everyday so being depressed wont help. There are things you will need to come to terms with:

    The fact that half the voters prefer the security of “business as usual” that keeps the fat salaries rolling in should not alarm you.
    That half the voters don’t care about hungry children should not alarm you.
    That half the voters don’t care that their civil liberties are being remorselessly eroded by a rich kleptocracy should not alarm you.
    That half the voters prefer the money from cows wrecking our environment to clean rivers should not alarm you.

    You should not be alarmed that National has won half the vote: this is the bitter fruit of 30 years of the promotion of the “individual” , the social conditioning that you are an island of total responsibility for your own circumstance.
    This is the bitter legacy of David and Roger. Don’t be alarmed, the horse bolted long since, it is time to recapture it. We have three years.

    • jackp 175.1

      Nick, there is one major problem that I was worried about at the beginning of the year. That is the media. Fairfax, APN, Media Works, the MSM in general is foreign owned. They have vested interests in New Zealand and people are being dumbed down. This has been going on for about 10 years. I have seen it in the states and it is happening here. Who ever controls the media wins the elections. All the bad stuff National has done was buried and any accusations were shot down by the media. Not one mention in the media that Labour paid down the debt and National is crippling us with their record debt. I still would like to see the proof that Dot.com’s email is a fake. Everyone around me is saying it was fake but I have yet to believe them. This is serious because you can plan and plan but guess what it won’t mean anything until the people of this country see both sides of the story.
      I tend to vote conservatively but this time I voted Labour because I see what Key is doing to this country and it makes me sick. Key has the media in his pocket because of friends in high places. Yes, Labour may have planned somewhat poorly but Cunliffe never had a chance. I can’t stress enough how important this one fact is.

  173. ianmac 176

    And a profound vote of thanks to Lynn for providing this venue. Some of we little people have this place to visit each day and have our say and that is very much appreciated.

  174. sabine 177

    could we create something like this here in NZ

    http://www.dailykos.com/

    the media is corporate owned world wide and we have to just get on with it.
    but we need more interactive venues for our grass roots organisation, to write about their part of the country, their candidates, their needs etc etc.

    we need to rethink strategie, if anything we should have learned by now that the mindset of 20 century labour is passee.

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