Fearmongering or telling it how it is?
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5:14 pm, September 25th, 2021 - 29 comments
Categories: covid-19, health, science, vaccines -
Tags: modelling, predictions, Te Pūnaha Matatini
About those numbers. They’re obviously very wrong, aren’t they? We all know that the truth hurts but when it is this uncomfortable and painful we simply decide it stops being the truth. There are words to describe and name this kind of decision making.
It might just be me, but I do get the impression that Government’s kindness is firming up. Infringement fines for Covid-19 breaches have gone up heaps and people who want to travel down alert levels now have to show evidence of a very recent negative test. In addition, they’re sharpening the language around mandatory vaccination and this is under “active consideration”. Even if Government doesn’t take it all the way many businesses will take the hint and do the heavy lifting by mandating vaccination for their employees.
Anyway, it takes a lot of guts to put those numbers out and defend them in public. Many a professional reputation of scientists has been burned in the bonfire of public displeasure not to mention savaged by the baying media with their insatiable thirst for blood.
Other scientists and experts have been quick to condemn the numbers without paying much attention to the guiding messages from the model simulations. They should know better and at least choose their words more carefully when commenting in interviews and in public. But nothing is as exhilarating for the ego as getting a mike shoved in your face and a camera pointed at you, and we all live in TV studios nowadays with our kitten- and kids-proof semi-professional Zoom studios and setups.
All models are wrong, but some are useful
– George Box –
I don’t think it is particularly helpful to single out people, but some of the criticisms of the model simulations by Te Pūnaha Matatini are frankly at the level of arm-chair amateurs with very little understanding of the matter at hand.
At the very beginning of the pandemic last year a medium-sized team of scientific experts went public with their initial modelling, which instantly became famous or infamous, if you prefer.
Left unchecked, the virus would eventually infect 89 percent of New Zealand’s population and kill up to 80,000 people in a worst-case scenario. [my emphasis]
The key point is that NZ Government did not leave things unchecked. They went out hard, repeatedly, when it was necessary and demanded by the circumstances, and I believe New Zealand is record holder in the World Stringency Index tables.
Unfortunately, many still seem to be hung up on those scenarios and because the worst-case scenario never eventuated, anywhere in the World because other countries didn’t leave things unchecked either, they still exhibit the same gut reaction to the results of the most recent model simulations.
Even some other experts seem to be miffed. Some expert reactions can be found the Science Media Centre and others are in mainstream media. One criticism that was rather unhelpful was asserting that the numbers were unrealistically high because the modellers assume that we would “just sit on our hands and do nothing”. Nothing could be farther from the truth, as a quick read of the report will tell you straightaway, but essentially it comes down to same message: if we make certain choices and then do nothing else, which is not going to happen anyway, then numbers of people ending up in hospital with Covid-19 will steeply increase in a large outbreak resulting in overwhelming of capacity of the health system and likely leading to many many deaths.
Short-term views of highly vaccinated countries such as Singapore, Denmark, and Ireland have been used to ‘show’ that the number predictions taken over one year for the whole of NZ are not plausible. These hand waving critics completely ignore many other important factors. In fact, as with other countries such as Israel and Taiwan, a rapid re-think is required when the pandemic is clearly going out of control, again. These cases show that there is no room for simplistic ‘thinking’ and simplistic ‘answers’ AKA kneejerk twitches of a flatulating brain and I believe that our Government knows this very well indeed and it shows.
One of the big unknowns at present is the vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant.
As the effects of the vaccine on transmission remain uncertain, we consider three levels of vaccine effectiveness: high, central, and low to illustrate a range of possibilities.
This has a profound effect on the results and it should be pointed out that it is mainly the number predictions based on the assumption of central vaccine effectiveness that are mentioned and discussed in the news media. This is not easily influenced or controlled although spacing the two vaccine shots by 6 rather than 3 weeks does give a better immune response on average. There might be other ways that are able to boost overall vaccine effectiveness, e.g., giving a second shot with a different vaccine, but these options have not yet been approved and/or recommended in NZ.
They reiterated an important message again.
Nonetheless, it is not thought to be possible to achieve widespread population immunity to the Delta variant by vaccination alone, which means that moderate public health measures [excluding stay-at-home orders, i.e. Alert Level 3 or 4] will be needed to augment the vaccine programme.
In other words, and in summary:
Nonetheless, the results suggest that a combination of high levels of vaccination within the community, a strong test-trace-isolate-quarantine system (assuming case numbers are kept sufficiently low) and moderate public health measures may be enough to attain population immunity, greatly reducing the need for strong public health measures, such as stay-at-home orders and workplace closures.
It is worth pointing out that the attitudes and sentiments of Kiwis towards Covid-19 are relatively stable, possibly trending upwards into more positive territory, which is possibly due to the recent Delta outbreak, and he overall potential uptake of the 12+ population is estimated to be 85.5% based on the latest survey taken at the end of August.
This provides a good starting point for discussion and public conversation. The numbers per se are not so important, as the authors of the study mention:
Model results are intended as a guide to the relative benefits of different levels of vaccine coverage in the population rather than exact predictions or a detailed roadmap.
Indeed, it is hard to fathom why this elicited such visceral response with many and why people stared themselves blind on the imaginary numbers (not in a mathematical sense) rather than on the key message. People seem to forget that the flu kills many hundreds of Kiwis each season despite an active and pro-active vaccination programme. Maybe because this has been endemic for such a long time it has become more acceptable, unlike deaths caused by small sudden outbreaks of measles or RSV, for example; anything out of the ordinary attracts a disproportional amount of attention, which is often magnified by people with invested and/or political interests. And people like to focus on (the) negatives more than on (the) positives.
Some tough decisions will have to be made in the near future and we’re all in this together, so we can’t honestly shift responsibility and blame (!) to Government-alone nor does vilifying experts help one iota when some of us don’t like what they’re saying. In fact, it undermines the guiding principles and message from science and breeds unhealthy scepticism, cynicism, and distrust of scientists and authorities with the general public, but perhaps that is the (subconscious?) goal all along?
The core plank of our pandemic measures remains vaccination although it is not (yet) the silver bullet and it might never be, as is the case with influenza.
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- Release: Transport in NZ has to be more than just roads
As expected, the National Land Transport Programme lacks ambition for our cities and our country’s rail network and puts the majority of investment into roads. ...5 days ago
- Speech: Barbara Edmonds Building Nations 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa, Thank you for your warm welcome and for having my colleagues and I here today. Earlier you heard from the Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, on our vision for the future of infrastructure. I want to build on his comments and provide further detail on some key elements ...5 days ago
- Govt transport plan deepens fossil fuel fix
The Green Party says the Government’s new National Land Transport Programme marks another missed opportunity to take meaningful action to fight the climate crisis. ...6 days ago
- Greens call for public to back Wrybill in BOTY and beyond
The Green Party is calling on the public to support the Ngutu Pare Wrybill not just in this year’s Bird of the Year competition but also in pushing back against policies that could lead to the destruction of its habitat and accelerate its extinction. ...6 days ago
- Building consents data bad news for construction
News that the annual number of building consents granted for new homes fell by more than 20 percent for the year ended July 2024, is bad news for the construction industry. ...1 week ago
- Te Pāti Māori Pay Tribute to Kiingi Tūheitia Pōtatau Te Wherowhero VII
Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...1 week ago
- Release: Gaps still to be addressed in callouts response
The Government must guarantee New Zealanders will not be at risk after making changes to the way mental health callouts are handled. ...1 week ago
- Poroporoaki: Kiingi Tuheitia passing
Haere e te Kīngi o te kotahitangi Haere ki o nui, ki o rahi I te pō ...1 week ago
- Green Party pays respects to Kiingi Tuuheitia
The Green Party is paying tribute to the Māori King, Kiingi Tuuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero XVII, after he passed away earlier this morning. ...1 week ago
- Potaka Brings Whakaata Māori to its Knees
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...1 week ago
- Release: National restricts access to disability care homes
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt must help save 230 manufacturing jobs
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...1 week ago
- Govt shirks its responsibility to Whakaata Māori
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...1 week ago
- NZ First Member’s Bill To Disestablish Auckland Transport
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...1 week ago - Release: PM fails in constitutional role and leadership
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...1 week ago
- Waititi urges Rotorua Lakes Council to immediately stop works at Lake Rotokākahi
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Patient care at risk from redundancies
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Govt to wake up on child poverty
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Police are off the beat under National
Foot patrols around the country have decreased 15 percent since National took office, despite National’s Mark Mitchell claiming otherwise. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Climate denial is an insult to Pacific leaders
Winston Peters’ climate denialism at the Pacific Islands’ Forum is an embarrassing new low. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt must end solitary confinement
The Green Party is urging the Government to end the use of solitary confinement within our prisons after new research revealed some prisoners have been held in confinement for more than 900 days. ...2 weeks ago
- Fossil fuels never the answer in climate crisis
The Government’s moves to enable the import of Liquefied Natural Gas is another step away from the sustainable and affordable energy network that this country needs. ...2 weeks ago
- Government must respect Court’s Uber employee decision
Today’s court ruling upholding the rights of Uber drivers is a message to the Government that it must not tamper with employment protections. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Uber court decision recognises workers’ rights
The Court of Appeal decision that Uber drivers are entitled to employee rights such as minimum wage, sick leave, holiday pay and collective bargaining is welcome news for the drivers involved and their unions. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls on Govt to divest from illegal settlements
The Labour Party is calling on the Government to tell the two major wealth funds, the NZ Super Fund and ACC, to withdraw investments from companies listed by the United Nations as complicit in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt backtrack on fast-track still not enough
Labour welcomes news that the National Government is backing down on its reckless proposal to give Ministers final sign-off on significant projects, but it’s still not enough. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast track still on track to environmental destruction
Our environment remains at risk despite the Government's proposed changes to its controversial fast-track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Ohinemuri River pollution highlights mining risks
The harrowing images of the severely polluted Ohinemuri River caused by an old mining shaft could become a more common occurrence under the mining regime the Government is looking to roll out. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt Incarcerating our Mokopuna into a Failed System
Information released by the Minister for Children has revealed that almost 800 mokopuna Māori have been taken by the state this year, putting it on track for the largest displacement of tamariki Māori since the introduction of Section 7AA in 2019. “Oranga Tamariki is running a crusade against whakapapa Māori ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Chris Hipkins’ Speech to Local Government New Zealand
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Regional deals can’t leave ratepayers picking up the bill again
On the back of a patronising speech to local councils the Government has rushed out an announcement on regional and city deals that leaves out the crucial component – funding. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt in thrall to tobacco lobbyists
The National Government has put the interests of tobacco lobbyists ahead of New Zealanders and their health. ...2 weeks ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 days ago - Passport wait times back on-track
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...2 days ago
- New appointments to the FMA board
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...2 days ago
- District Court judges appointed
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...2 days ago
- Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...3 days ago
- New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...3 days ago
- Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...3 days ago
- Improving access to finance for Kiwis
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...3 days ago
- Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...3 days ago
- More choice and competition in building products
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...3 days ago
- Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...4 days ago
- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...4 days ago
- International tourism continuing to bounce back
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...4 days ago
- Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...4 days ago
- Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...4 days ago
- Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...5 days ago
- Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...5 days ago
- Government backs women in horticulture
“The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says. “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...5 days ago
- Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout
The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...5 days ago
- Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants. “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...5 days ago
- New priorities to protect future of conservation
Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...5 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti
A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...5 days ago
- IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand
The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...6 days ago
- Delivering priority connections for the West Coast
A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...6 days ago
- Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington
A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...6 days ago
- Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...6 days ago
- Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki
A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland
A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...6 days ago
- Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland
A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...6 days ago
- Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure
A record $479 million for transport investment across the top of the South Island through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will build a stronger road network that supports primary industries and grows the economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We’re committed to making sure that every dollar is ...6 days ago
- Government delivering reliable roads for Manawatū-Whanganui
A record $1.6 billion for transport investment in Manawatū-Whanganui through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s importance as a strategic freight hub that boosts economic growth, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. ...6 days ago
- Restoring connections in Hawke’s Bay
A record $657 million for transport investment in the Hawke’s Bay through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support recovery from cyclone damage and build greater resilience into the network to support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that ...6 days ago
- Transport resilience a priority for Gisborne
A record $255 million for transport investment in Gisborne through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and restore the cyclone-damaged network, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With $255 million of investment over the next three years, we are committed to making sure that every transport ...6 days ago
- Prioritising growth and reduced travel times in Canterbury
A record $1.8 billion for transport investment Canterbury through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Christchurch is the economic powerhouse of the South Island, and transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and freight in the Bay of Plenty
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Bay of Plenty through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and unlock land for thousands of houses, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in the Bay of ...6 days ago
- Getting transport back on track in Auckland
A record $8.4 billion for transport investment in Auckland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will deliver the infrastructure our rapidly growing region needs to support economic growth and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Aucklanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, phantoms projects, ...6 days ago
- Record investment to get transport back on track
A record $32.9 billion investment in New Zealand’s transport network through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more reliable and efficient transport network that boosts economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, ...6 days ago
- Consultation is open on gambling harm strategy
Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey has welcomed the start of Gambling Harm Awareness Week by encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on the next three-year strategy to prevent and minimise gambling harm. “While many New Zealanders enjoy gambling as a pastime without issue, the statistics are clear that ...6 days ago
- JOINT STATEMENT FOR THE OFFICIAL VISIT OF NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER CHRISTOPHER LUXON
1. Prime Minister YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim hosted Prime Minister Rt. Hon Christopher Luxon on an Official Visit to Malaysia from 1 to 3 September 2024. Both leaders expressed appreciation for enduring and warm bilateral ties over 67 years of diplomatic relations. The Malaysia – New Zealand Strategic Partnership 2. The ...6 days ago
- Open letter to TVNZ – stop the bias, report fairly on the Israeli war on Palestine
OPEN LETTER: Our Action Station Dear TVNZ, We are deeply concerned with the misleading nature of the journalism presented in your recent coverage of the escalating crisis in Gaza and the West Bank. By focusing on specific language and framing, while leaving out the necessary context of international law, the ...2 hours ago - Census will now include questions on sexual orientation and gender identity
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has shifted again on the 2026 census, now saying it will include questions on both sexual orientation and gender identity. In its latest iteration, the government announced on Sunday the census ...4 hours ago
- New Zealand takes another step towards US space operations
Analysis - Space has rapidly become more hostile for geopolitical reasons, but what are the threats, and what is New Zealand doing to assess them? ...5 hours ago - Business case to replace NZDF’s Boeing 757s in the works, as repair costs skyrocket
The planes have been plagued by multiple breakdowns, in one case nearly derailing a prime ministerial trade mission. ...7 hours ago
- Mediawatch: Kiingi Tuheitia’s tangihanga – epic broadcast marks new epoch for te ao Māori
“Anticipation is growing. The warriors are ready. They’re preparing themselves. The paddlers are already on their waka,” Scotty Morrison, alongside veteran journalist Tini Molyneux, told viewers from the banks of the Waikato River. It was Thursday, and the body of Kiingi Tuheitia was being escorted to the barge to take ...9 hours ago
- Media focus on small stuff in government’s big-budget transport plan
Some media queried how the $33b national transport plan will be funded. Others highlighted aspects that barely dent the budget. ...12 hours ago
- In pictures: Commonwealth Youth Parliament takes over the House
A Queenslander, a Falkland Islander and a Gibraltarian walk into a debating chamber. It's no joke - just the reality at Parliament this week ...14 hours ago
- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Orient ExpressHot air balloon Number OneIs prepared by the Royal Hot Air Balloon ForceFor Prime Balloonist, King Luxon,And his trade delegation to the Orient.But lo! With a splutter and a puffHot air balloon Number One folds in on itselfAnd deflates onto the field.King Luxon sighs and books a ticketOn a ...15 hours ago - Mike Joy on his memoir and butting heads with Sir John Key
The scientist whose work prompted Sir John Key in 2011 to compare academics to lawyers says it was a "surreal" and "scary" time. ...1 day ago
- Results of school property inquiry yet to go to Cabinet
The inquiry was completed months ago, but the minister of education is still weighing up its recommendations. ...1 day ago
- ACT pledges pushback on supermarket crackdown
Further regulation of the supermarket sector may hit a snag in the form of David Seymour, who is mounting strong opposition to any such move. ...2 days ago
- The Weekend: Paralympics appreciation vs everyday apathy
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. The Paralympic Games end tomorrow after nearly two weeks of incredible athletic feats. On a purely results basis, New Zealand hasn’t done that well. As of writing (Friday), we’re yet to win a gold medal and are placed 61st out of 74 ...2 days ago - ‘I wish I’d never thought of it’: The Blue Monkey on Suzanne Paul’s back
The infomercial queen looks back on an eventful life in TV, filled with Coronation Street, The Blue Monkey and a lot of reality television. Suzanne Paul is a New Zealand television icon. Born and raised in England, Paul worked around the world for 20 years before she arrived in Aotearoa ...2 days ago
- Auckland’s secondhand bookshops, ranked and reviewed
Shanti Mathias visits and ranks the crème de la crème of Auckland’s secondhand bookshops. From Ponsonby to Grafton to Devonport to Parnell, Auckland has some lovely secondhand bookshops, many of which are huge and deserve to be browsed for hours, embracing the way that all bookstores, but especially secondhand bookstores, ...2 days ago
- The Spinoff Essay: An ode to tea, the universal panacea
Skimmed Alive, Earl Gravy or Peanut Safari, there’s nothing like making someone a cup of tea exactly how they like it. The Spinoff Essay showcases the best essayists in Aotearoa, on topics big and small. Made possible by the generous support of our members. ‘Corrie climax sparks power surge.’ That was ...2 days ago
- ‘A bogan-fuelled track to remind us where we came from’: Blindspott’s perfect weekend playlist
Damian Alexander and Shelton Woolright of Blindspott share their perfect weekend playlist. Few embody the “west is best” mindset as well as Blindspott. So, it’s probably a good thing the bogan rockers will be able to let their West Auckland sensibilities loose as a part of a supergroup comprised of ...2 days ago
- Brokenwood – the international hit with a kiwi accent
It’s been a brutal year for New Zealand television, with the demise of Three’s Newshub news operation, costing 300-odd jobs; and the canning of TVNZ’s highly rated Fair Go, Sunday and Late News programmes.It’s also been announced the long-running soap Shortland Street will be cut to three nights a week, ...2 days ago
- The Secret Diary of .. Christopher Luxon
MONDAYGreat news for the nation! In a gesture that I know will resonate with ordinary Kiwis who look to the Prime Minister as an example of someone who can deliver a set of deliverables that will take root and come to pass, I have sold one of my nine or ...2 days ago
- Short story: I’m a Māori, by Airana Ngarewa
“See that car, ow?” A lime-green Beetle puttered into the distance, barely making the speed limit. “Lady in the front winked at me. Almost crossed the centre line she was so lost in my eyes.”“Bro, that’s the lifeguard. She’s seventy.”Māui shrugged his shoulders. “My swag crosses generational lines. What can ...2 days ago
- Podcast: Does the government have it wrong on gas?
The government is making a poor economic move with its plan to import natural gas according to Saul Griffith, renewable energy advocate and former climate advisor to Joe Biden. Saul Griffith is an author, inventor, scientist and co-founder of Rewiring America. A few years back he managed to convince ...2 days ago
- New measurements reveal the enormous halos that shroud all galaxies in the universe
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanne Fisher, Associate Professor of Astronomy, Swinburne University of Technology The starry part of every galaxy is surrounded by a vast shroud of gas extending out for more than 100,000 light years. Cristy Roberts / ANU / ASTRO 3D Have you ever ...2 days ago
- Opera Eucalyptus is a lush adaptation of Murray Bail’s novel – with a modern twist
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moya Costello, Adjunct Lecturer, Southern Cross University Opera Australia My first curiosities about the new opera Eucalyptus, an adaptation of Murray Bail’s multi-award-winning 1998 novel, were regarding how Ellen and the many stories told to her by her ultimately successful suitor ...2 days ago
- The Week in Politics: More roads and maybe fewer tourists
Analysis - The government's $32.9 billion transport spend-up, a big hike in the tourist levy, and the prime minister's ferry-free visit to South Korea. ...2 days ago
- Our cities are losing the small, colourful songbirds that give us the most joy
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andres Felipe Suarez-Castro, Research Fellow, Ecological Modelling, Griffith University Scarlet honeyeater (_Myzomela sanguinolenta_) Marty Oishi/Shutterstock The birds that fill our mornings with songs and our parks and gardens with colour are disappearing from our cities, our new study has found. We ...2 days ago
- New government funding for family violence is unprecedented, but it can’t afford to wait
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University A new A$4.7 billion national funding package announced today will deliver much needed resources to address family and sexual violence. For years, specialist support services, community legal services, therapeutic responses and men’s ...2 days ago
- Residency granted for Brazilian couple whose immigration adviser forgot to apply for visa
Brazilians Newton Santos and Nubia Chiarelli had been fighting to get their case reviewed since 2021. ...2 days ago
- Witness 1.8 billion years of tectonic plates dance across Earth’s surface in a new animation
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Collins, Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Two tectonic plates meet in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland. VisualProduction/Shutterstock Using information from inside the rocks on Earth’s surface, we have reconstructed the plate tectonics of the planet over the last 1.8 billion years. ...2 days ago
- Far North District councillors vote unanimously to retain their Māori ward following impassioned me...
The council's strongly worded resolution also called on the CEO to explore the legal implications of not holding a binding poll as required. ...2 days ago
- The ozone hole above Antarctica will keep opening up each spring for decades to come – here’s wh...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Revell, Associate Professor in Environmental Physics, University of Canterbury NASA via Getty Images At this time of year, as the sun rises over Antarctica, a “hole” opens up in Earth’s ozone layer. The ozone layer is a vital planetary boundary ...2 days ago
- What you need to know about the draft English and maths curriculums
This is what you need to know about the draft English and maths curriculums out for consultation. ...2 days ago
- Is Russia’s changing nuclear doctrine a significant concern – or just another empty threat?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Richardson, Visiting Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University Russia’s announcement this week that it is revising its nuclear weapons doctrine has raised questions about what this means – and whether it marks a significant escalation in its war in ...2 days ago
- Bunyip birds and brolgas: how can we better protect species important to Indigenous people?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley J. Moggridge, Professor of Science, University of Technology Sydney Bradley Moggridge, Author provided Kamilaroi Country lies in far northwest New South Wales, past Tamworth and crossing over the Queensland border. Here, the bunyip bird (Australasian bittern, Botaurus poiciloptilus), and the ...2 days ago
- Who are the greatest Paralympians of all time?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Thousands of amazing athletes have competed in the Paralympics Games over the past 64 years. But who are the greatest of these Paralympians? And how would you decide? ...2 days ago
- ‘Put down the hammer and pick up the rammer’
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Excellent thoughts Incognito, thank you.
You know Kiwis can do anything….we've moved on from being virologists and epidemiologists and now we are all modellers.
Trouble is now we are modellers we have forgotten what went on last year during the outbreak then.
Then we are dealing with the effects of deliberate mis- and dis-information,
We took measures to prevent the worst from happening but then the worst didn't happen so obviously we didn't need to take those measures to prevent the worst from happening
That should be a line from Monty Python but sadly it's an argument seen daily in online blather.
Fortunately those fools are nowhere near the decision-making, and for that we can thank the majority of the NZ public who backed the decision-makers.
Personally I think the govt did leave a bit late to choose the pfizer vaccine & we started off with a really limited supply.
But I've paid careful attention to the explanations given by Hipkins & Ardern re how & why our vaccine supplies were ordered in increasing quantities, & the vaccine programme has been rolled & I've concluded they are plausible & make sense.
I think things are going pretty well on the vaccination front, & am hoping & trusting that vaccination coverage will get even better over the next four weeks.
Thoughtful summary of what has been happening. Thanks Incognito. Thankfully our Government listened to the science and considered our population make up. You are correct to say "this Government did not sit on their hands and do nothing" but to hear some folk, Judith Collins included, that is what is said or implied constantly.
The idea you can over react to a pandemic, where fast reactions and implementation of prevention is key is really silly. We don't stop bailing a boat because it is not sinking as fast as you first thought.
Very good post Incog. Covid is a clusterfuck mess that most nations have mucked up badly and here in Aotearoa we have the luxury of still having our fingers crossed.
The response is basically whackamole. First round is easy, second round a bit more difficult, then business gets involved and ankletaps scientific advice so the third round is much harder, then the fourth round where the anti vaxers start attacking reality, then the fifth round and the sixth …
Ardern and the Government have properly pointed out that we cannot hope to keep winning at whackamole. One day we will lose, like every other nation in the world except China that threw its might at the problem and Taiwan who were just exceptional.
This is why the vaccination program is so important. Put to one side the complaints about its slowness, no nation has reached safe levels of vaccination yet and our response fills my heart with hope.
To estimate how good a country's response is you have to:
1. See how well it has kept Covid out,
2. See how well adopted the vaccination roll out is going.
I am not surprised that the Government is ramping up the vaccination rhetoric. Every reluctant vaccination that we achieve that gets us closer to 90% or 95% means that the gnarly hard policy decisions do not have to be implemented.
Taiwan's whackamole stint this year was an outbreak of the alpha variant, not delta. Taiwan got complacent and took a few months to stamp the outbreak out. The other countries that used the elimination tactic last year have struggled with delta…Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand etc. In Oz, Qld, SA,WA, the NT have all had small outbreaks of delta and have whackamoled them, but the virus never got into the sort of communities that delta got into in NSW and Victoria and South Auckland. Also, they have not had hardly any lockdowns apart from the first one last year, so less problem with compliance. Victoria also used the whackamole approach but after far too long in previous lockdowns, they have had a real problem with poor compliance, something which has not gone unnoticed across the ditch.
Shouldn't be a surprise, really, when ya think about it…:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B4Asqq78nBE
On the death rate from influenza:
https://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue45/inbrief/otago664450.html
They estimated the number because most deaths are not recorded as 'flu. A lot of deaths are from heart attacks due to inflammation of the heart. This means that general knowledge of how deadly 'flu is is lacking.
When we say 500 people die of 'flu every year, people find it hard to believe as hardly anyone knows anyone who has died of 'flu. Influenza death also tends to be associated with poverty.
Modelling of any disease is hard and there are many assumptions. Epidemiology is looked down on by some other branches of science even, because the numbers feel wrong.
So yes, do the modelling based on the assumption of no intervention, but make it clear what that means. Nobody did any modelling based on gross negligence, like what happened in US and Brazil.
The important thing with modelling is what combination keeps the R value sufficiently far below 1. There has be a bit of safety margin built in due to the assumptions about effectiveness of measures and human behaviour.
It is quite funny in situations like this where everyone becomes an expert via Dr Google.
Just get the jab and then moan about it would help.
Perhaps don't present to the public THE extreme case "He said the modelling assumes the country would have no restrictions."- So We listen and hear 7,000 deaths p.a. and 100,000 infections. Did any involved; Hendy, PM, Dir of health, advisors not think of how that headline nos. would impact on those watching or reading a report on the 1:00pm briefing, or that no govt. would allow that to happen? Perhaps those in power thought that such a forecast would create urgency for people to be vaccinated, and did not contemplate what other reactions and to minimise these, especially with the mindset given what we have seen in the world and from our lockdowns ?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/452180/modeller-stands-by-government-s-covid-19-data-release-amid-criticism
In our household we are fortunate to have someone who was required as part of their qualifications to attain l3 statistics and explain in part along with google some understanding to the "Outbreak tracking and projections: Update for data as at 1pm 7th September 2021"
https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/outbreak-tracking-and-projections.pdf
Found on Face book
Could not work out how to ref.
But a well worth read by Gerard Otto re modelling and Reti's response to Hendry modelling
80000 deaths equates to 16000 per 1,000,000 population in NZ. So how does this figure stack up against the real world experience with the virus?
The answer is here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
As the table shows, the very worst statistic is Peru with 6125 deaths per million population. The UK was only 2026 deaths per million population.
Clearly there is no real world example that supports anything close to 16000 deaths per million population. So, it seems clear that the 80000 projection was completely wrong.
Modellers don't have the luxury of hindsight. They use the best available information and make assumptions to fill in the gaps.
The estimate for the case fatality rate was 4% at the time I think. With better diagnostics, and more effective treatment this has ben shown to be a little lower (about 0.3%). Obviously higher in Peru for some reason.
So a better figure might have been 10 000 deaths in NZ.
As for the 7000 per year from the latest modelling: The UK is currently averaging 100 – 200 deaths per day. This is about 3500 or more per year scaled to NZ. The UK probably has over 90% of the population with antibodies from vaccination or infection. So the modelling doesn't seem too unreasonable.
Just as well you have been sold that is all that the message was intended IMO to do, SCARE us, how the ignorant are fooled 🤦🏼♀️ I will give you 1 other scenario from the same report that the 7000 is sourced from.
85% vaccinated of over 12's with a high VW will result in 191 deaths and 1,720 hospitalisations over a year(page 6). That is a few less than the 7000. Funny how that wasn't part of the manipulation of the telecast or the analysis of others here. For those " You want answers?! I want the truth! You can't handle the truth!"
Review this link
And here I got the impression that those on the left would seek out the truth and not distort. I hope this will help those superior to me to explain the modelling and outputs to the rest of us
https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy.pdf
So, you think modellers should make the assumption that people will notice people dropping around them like flies and continue with life as if it wasn't happening?
Even without government intervention people would naturally develop strategies to try and reduce the chance of getting sick such as avoiding sick people etc.
To be useful models should factor in likely interpersonal and government reactions to the situation otherwise they will never be useful and will never approximate what will happen in the real world.
If the model was useful, it should be possible to point to at least one real world example where the scenario actually played out in a similar way as predicted. As I pointed out, there is no such example.
Hendy's modelling of the number of cases that we would get, given the public health measures we did take was, in fact, very close. Inconvenient as that reality may be, for those obsessed with bagging the Government.
As was made clear in the briefing, modelling, as you would expect, gave a range of scenarios from worst case to best, to inform descision making. That is what it is for.
Contrary to your statement, there are places where the worst case scenario has played out. There is good reason to suspect, as some of those places don’t even test for covid anymore, that it is even worse numbers than any we have seen.
If you have better stats please give the link.
Same document as the 80k figure, which you have already no doubt read.
Hendy predicted 0.0004% mortality if NZ imposed outbreak controls similar to what we now call Level 4. That post and discussion is from march 2020.
That 0.0004% equates to roughly 20 people.
So far we've lost 27. 18 months later.
Gotta say, the more you guys fixate on 80k, the more I have to go back and refresh my memory on exactly how accurate his models actually proved to be.
Rodney jones? screw that dude. What’s his track record on predicting the numbers for this outbreak?
In the UK people are dying at 1000 per week (5000 pa in per capita terms here), despite this the government has no lock downs as they head into winter, and is not going to establish vaccine passports.
Presuming that governments would act with a high death rate is not always accurate.
Well, going by some other nations, modellers should at least incorporate into their range of assumptions the possibility that a statistically significant portion of the population are
fucking moronsplague enthusiastsreluctant to change their behaviour, yes.Hendy included the range of possibilities from us being a bunch of
fucking moronsfreedom-loving individuals who'd want to avoid lockdowns or travel controls or isolation or quarantine, to us actually having a full L4 lockdown to control any outbreak so grandma might see the year out.Fortunately, we chose the latter extreme.
Yes I have read the report and I realise there are a number of scenarios in increasing levels of control.
But the worst case scenario of "no control" is completely unrealistic in the real world, and hence not useful, and can only lead to scaremongering, especially when picked up by the media and politicians with an agenda.
"No control" implies that people and governments ignore the fact that people are dropping like flies everywhere.
However, "No Control" is a completely unrealistic scenario because fear drives people into steps to minimise risk. For instance, businesses would start forbidding employees not to come to work if sick. In the SARS outbreak many (especially in Asian countries near the outbreak) started wearing masks. And people would start avoiding people who appeared sick.
So, a more useful worst case scenario would be to allow for natural type control measures such as these, rather than assume no control measures whatsoever.
Well, including a null value can help provide context to the scale of other responses.
But on the flipside, the yanks and brits spent much of 2020 closer to "no control" than any genuine attempt at infection control, so I'm not sure how "unrealistic" it actually was. Spring Break and Sturgis, for example.
It was made in March 2020 when the death rate from infection was still a guestimate (before the treatment with dexamethasone).
Modellers do not come Out with a single outcome, refer to my post above and the link to the paper that the 7000 deaths with a different mix of variables were based on, same paper has 191 deaths. there is a matrix of variables and from these tables of outcomes. Funny how no one else can link there comments to the tables or raw data, perhaps they do not know how to find these. If only they had google and 2 minutes
The link to the full study is in the first three words of the original post (OP):
It is also highlighted further down in the OP:
People ought to read before they comment in which case they wouldn’t have to use “google and 2 minutes”.
I have read both links I have referred to regarding the report, my google and 2 minutes comment referred to seeking out and locating the report and the background to the methodology, which I cannot see the post refers to.
Regarding the 50% effectiveness there is no allowance that there would be a response of a 3rd jab, which anyone with a brain in leadership would instigate.
The link right at the top of the OP links directly to the original study by Hendy et al. In that report, you’ll find the references to the methodology they used, as is good practice in scientific study reports.
The authors of the report clearly mention waning immunity and booster shots:
People ought to read before they comment.
"People ought to read before they comment." Who is that directed to ??
You did not link this that I can see.
https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/outbreak-tracking-and-projections.pdf