Fearmongering or telling it how it is?

Written By: - Date published: 5:14 pm, September 25th, 2021 - 29 comments
Categories: covid-19, health, science, vaccines - Tags: , ,

About those numbers. They’re obviously very wrong, aren’t they? We all know that the truth hurts but when it is this uncomfortable and painful we simply decide it stops being the truth. There are words to describe and name this kind of decision making.

It might just be me, but I do get the impression that Government’s kindness is firming up. Infringement fines for Covid-19 breaches have gone up heaps and people who want to travel down alert levels now have to show evidence of a very recent negative test. In addition, they’re sharpening the language around mandatory vaccination and this is under “active consideration”. Even if Government doesn’t take it all the way many businesses will take the hint and do the heavy lifting by mandating vaccination for their employees.

Anyway, it takes a lot of guts to put those numbers out and defend them in public. Many a professional reputation of scientists has been burned in the bonfire of public displeasure not to mention savaged by the baying media with their insatiable thirst for blood.

Other scientists and experts have been quick to condemn the numbers without paying much attention to the guiding messages from the model simulations. They should know better and at least choose their words more carefully when commenting in interviews and in public. But nothing is as exhilarating for the ego as getting a mike shoved in your face and a camera pointed at you, and we all live in TV studios nowadays with our kitten- and kids-proof semi-professional Zoom studios and setups.

All models are wrong, but some are useful

– George Box –

I don’t think it is particularly helpful to single out people, but some of the criticisms of the model simulations by Te Pūnaha Matatini are frankly at the level of arm-chair amateurs with very little understanding of the matter at hand.

At the very beginning of the pandemic last year a medium-sized team of scientific experts went public with their initial modelling, which instantly became famous or infamous, if you prefer.

Left unchecked, the virus would eventually infect 89 percent of New Zealand’s population and kill up to 80,000 people in a worst-case scenario. [my emphasis]

The key point is that NZ Government did not leave things unchecked. They went out hard, repeatedly, when it was necessary and demanded by the circumstances, and I believe New Zealand is record holder in the World Stringency Index tables.

Unfortunately, many still seem to be hung up on those scenarios and because the worst-case scenario never eventuated, anywhere in the World because other countries didn’t leave things unchecked either, they still exhibit the same gut reaction to the results of the most recent model simulations.

Even some other experts seem to be miffed. Some expert reactions can be found the Science Media Centre and others are in mainstream media. One criticism that was rather unhelpful was asserting that the numbers were unrealistically high because the modellers assume that we would “just sit on our hands and do nothing”. Nothing could be farther from the truth, as a quick read of the report will tell you straightaway, but essentially it comes down to same message: if we make certain choices and then do nothing else, which is not going to happen anyway, then numbers of people ending up in hospital with Covid-19 will steeply increase in a large outbreak resulting in overwhelming of capacity of the health system and likely leading to many many deaths.

Short-term views of highly vaccinated countries such as Singapore, Denmark, and Ireland have been used to ‘show’ that the number predictions taken over one year for the whole of NZ are not plausible. These hand waving critics completely ignore many other important factors. In fact, as with other countries such as Israel and Taiwan, a rapid re-think is required when the pandemic is clearly going out of control, again. These cases show that there is no room for simplistic ‘thinking’ and simplistic ‘answers’ AKA kneejerk twitches of a flatulating brain and I believe that our Government knows this very well indeed and it shows.

One of the big unknowns at present is the vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant.

As the effects of the vaccine on transmission remain uncertain, we consider three levels of vaccine effectiveness: high, central, and low to illustrate a range of possibilities.

This has a profound effect on the results and it should be pointed out that it is mainly the number predictions based on the assumption of central vaccine effectiveness that are mentioned and discussed in the news media. This is not easily influenced or controlled although spacing the two vaccine shots by 6 rather than 3 weeks does give a better immune response on average. There might be other ways that are able to boost overall vaccine effectiveness, e.g., giving a second shot with a different vaccine, but these options have not yet been approved and/or recommended in NZ.

They reiterated an important message again.

Nonetheless, it is not thought to be possible to achieve widespread population immunity to the Delta variant by vaccination alone, which means that moderate public health measures [excluding stay-at-home orders, i.e. Alert Level 3 or 4] will be needed to augment the vaccine programme.

In other words, and in summary:

Nonetheless, the results suggest that a combination of high levels of vaccination within the community, a strong test-trace-isolate-quarantine system (assuming case numbers are kept sufficiently low) and moderate public health measures may be enough to attain population immunity, greatly reducing the need for strong public health measures, such as stay-at-home orders and workplace closures.

It is worth pointing out that the attitudes and sentiments of Kiwis towards Covid-19 are relatively stable, possibly trending upwards into more positive territory, which is possibly due to the recent Delta outbreak, and he overall potential uptake of the 12+ population is estimated to be 85.5% based on the latest survey taken at the end of August.

This provides a good starting point for discussion and public conversation. The numbers per se are not so important, as the authors of the study mention:

Model results are intended as a guide to the relative benefits of different levels of vaccine coverage in the population rather than exact predictions or a detailed roadmap.

Indeed, it is hard to fathom why this elicited such visceral response with many and why people stared themselves blind on the imaginary numbers (not in a mathematical sense) rather than on the key message. People seem to forget that the flu kills many hundreds of Kiwis each season despite an active and pro-active vaccination programme. Maybe because this has been endemic for such a long time it has become more acceptable, unlike deaths caused by small sudden outbreaks of measles or RSV, for example; anything out of the ordinary attracts a disproportional amount of attention, which is often magnified by people with invested and/or political interests. And people like to focus on (the) negatives more than on (the) positives.

Some tough decisions will have to be made in the near future and we’re all in this together, so we can’t honestly shift responsibility and blame (!) to Government-alone nor does vilifying experts help one iota when some of us don’t like what they’re saying. In fact, it undermines the guiding principles and message from science and breeds unhealthy scepticism, cynicism, and distrust of scientists and authorities with the general public, but perhaps that is the (subconscious?) goal all along?

The core plank of our pandemic measures remains vaccination although it is not (yet) the silver bullet and it might never be, as is the case with influenza.

29 comments on “Fearmongering or telling it how it is? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Shanreagh 1
    25 September 2021 at 5:29 pm

    Excellent thoughts Incognito, thank you.

    You know Kiwis can do anything….we've moved on from being virologists and epidemiologists and now we are all modellers.

    Trouble is now we are modellers we have forgotten what went on last year during the outbreak then.

    Then we are dealing with the effects of deliberate mis- and dis-information,

  2. observer 2
    25 September 2021 at 5:49 pm

    We took measures to prevent the worst from happening but then the worst didn't happen so obviously we didn't need to take those measures to prevent the worst from happening

    That should be a line from Monty Python but sadly it's an argument seen daily in online blather.

    Fortunately those fools are nowhere near the decision-making, and for that we can thank the majority of the NZ public who backed the decision-makers.

    • Gezza 2.1
      25 September 2021 at 7:46 pm

      Personally I think the govt did leave a bit late to choose the pfizer vaccine & we started off with a really limited supply.

      But I've paid careful attention to the explanations given by Hipkins & Ardern re how & why our vaccine supplies were ordered in increasing quantities, & the vaccine programme has been rolled & I've concluded they are plausible & make sense.

      I think things are going pretty well on the vaccination front, & am hoping & trusting that vaccination coverage will get even better over the next four weeks.

  3. Patricia Bremner 3
    25 September 2021 at 7:53 pm

    Thoughtful summary of what has been happening. Thanks Incognito. Thankfully our Government listened to the science and considered our population make up. You are correct to say "this Government did not sit on their hands and do nothing" but to hear some folk, Judith Collins included, that is what is said or implied constantly.

    The idea you can over react to a pandemic, where fast reactions and implementation of prevention is key is really silly. We don't stop bailing a boat because it is not sinking as fast as you first thought.

  4. mickysavage 4
    25 September 2021 at 7:56 pm

    Very good post Incog. Covid is a clusterfuck mess that most nations have mucked up badly and here in Aotearoa we have the luxury of still having our fingers crossed.

    The response is basically whackamole. First round is easy, second round a bit more difficult, then business gets involved and ankletaps scientific advice so the third round is much harder, then the fourth round where the anti vaxers start attacking reality, then the fifth round and the sixth …

    Ardern and the Government have properly pointed out that we cannot hope to keep winning at whackamole. One day we will lose, like every other nation in the world except China that threw its might at the problem and Taiwan who were just exceptional.

    This is why the vaccination program is so important. Put to one side the complaints about its slowness, no nation has reached safe levels of vaccination yet and our response fills my heart with hope.

    To estimate how good a country's response is you have to:

    1. See how well it has kept Covid out,

    2. See how well adopted the vaccination roll out is going.

    I am not surprised that the Government is ramping up the vaccination rhetoric. Every reluctant vaccination that we achieve that gets us closer to 90% or 95% means that the gnarly hard policy decisions do not have to be implemented.

    • Koff 4.1
      25 September 2021 at 8:32 pm

      Taiwan's whackamole stint this year was an outbreak of the alpha variant, not delta. Taiwan got complacent and took a few months to stamp the outbreak out. The other countries that used the elimination tactic last year have struggled with delta…Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand etc. In Oz, Qld, SA,WA, the NT have all had small outbreaks of delta and have whackamoled them, but the virus never got into the sort of communities that delta got into in NSW and Victoria and South Auckland. Also, they have not had hardly any lockdowns apart from the first one last year, so less problem with compliance. Victoria also used the whackamole approach but after far too long in previous lockdowns, they have had a real problem with poor compliance, something which has not gone unnoticed across the ditch.

  5. barry 5
    25 September 2021 at 9:35 pm

    On the death rate from influenza:

    https://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue45/inbrief/otago664450.html

    They estimated the number because most deaths are not recorded as 'flu. A lot of deaths are from heart attacks due to inflammation of the heart. This means that general knowledge of how deadly 'flu is is lacking.

    When we say 500 people die of 'flu every year, people find it hard to believe as hardly anyone knows anyone who has died of 'flu. Influenza death also tends to be associated with poverty.

    Modelling of any disease is hard and there are many assumptions. Epidemiology is looked down on by some other branches of science even, because the numbers feel wrong.

    So yes, do the modelling based on the assumption of no intervention, but make it clear what that means. Nobody did any modelling based on gross negligence, like what happened in US and Brazil.

    The important thing with modelling is what combination keeps the R value sufficiently far below 1. There has be a bit of safety margin built in due to the assumptions about effectiveness of measures and human behaviour.

  6. chris T 6
    25 September 2021 at 10:06 pm

    It is quite funny in situations like this where everyone becomes an expert via Dr Google.

    Just get the jab and then moan about it would help.

  7. Herodotus 7
    26 September 2021 at 11:53 am

    Perhaps don't present to the public THE extreme case "He said the modelling assumes the country would have no restrictions."- So We listen and hear 7,000 deaths p.a. and 100,000 infections. Did any involved; Hendy, PM, Dir of health, advisors not think of how that headline nos. would impact on those watching or reading a report on the 1:00pm briefing, or that no govt. would allow that to happen? Perhaps those in power thought that such a forecast would create urgency for people to be vaccinated, and did not contemplate what other reactions and to minimise these, especially with the mindset given what we have seen in the world and from our lockdowns ?

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/452180/modeller-stands-by-government-s-covid-19-data-release-amid-criticism

    In our household we are fortunate to have someone who was required as part of their qualifications to attain l3 statistics and explain in part along with google some understanding to the "Outbreak tracking and projections: Update for data as at 1pm 7th September 2021"

    https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/outbreak-tracking-and-projections.pdf

  8. dv 8
    26 September 2021 at 12:59 pm

    Found on Face book

    Could not work out how to ref.

    But a well worth read by Gerard Otto re modelling and Reti's response to Hendry modelling

    Dr Shane Reti not trustworthy nor qualified

    On September 13 2021 National MP and Deputy leader Dr Shane Reti posted a very short 28 second video on his facebook page.

    The video was of Dr Reti asking Professor Shaun Hendy a question about an assumption in his modelling.

    The assumption was that we would only discover 80% of actual cases in an outbreak and 20% would remain undiscovered.

    Dr Reti allowed Professor Hendy about ten seconds to begin his answer and then cut the video short in order to suggest Hendy was an idiot who could not explain his assumption.

    Above this abridged video Dr Shane Reti wrote :

    "Modelling is all about the assumptions. I do want to thank Sean and his team, but, having been published myself several times on models from AI I know it's all about the assumptions. Here's what happens when I probe the assumptions…"

    The truth was more like – here's what happens when you cut the actual answer of Professor Hendy in order to promote yourself as a big shot modeller.

    This editing and censoring of Professor Hendy's answer by Dr Reti gained him the admiration of his facebook followers who wrote comments like :

    "Well done Shane it all spin on the “experts” to support Mz Ardern and her Agenda! There will be a reckoning and those experts better think of their future!"

    and :

    "Thank you. Keep Questioning please. So many unanswered Questions it's becoming blatantly obvious something shady is going on."

    Dr Shane Reti knew he had gained this support by dishonest means, cutting short the full answer of an expert in order to make himself look clever.

    This morning National Party Leader Judith Collins appeared on NewsHub Nation and in an interview with Tova O'Brien – Ms Collins ( who talks with her husband all the time ) said she would release National's Covid re-opening plan next week and it would include a peer reviewed model.

    Jude said she had an expert modeller on her team and his name was Dr Shane Reti who had done modelling around AI at Harvard and had published 12 or 14 publications.

    Tova said he is a very clever man.

    G News decided to look up these publications and found Dr Shane Reti had published a number of papers along with several other team members back in 2011 and 2012.

    These papers involved using conventional fuzzy logic and neural network models – and were used in applications like septic shock and ICU tests….but, the teams that Shane belonged to included MIT engineers and Mechanical engineers from Lisbon – who it is likely were the actual experts on the mathematics and computing aspects of the publications.

    Notably these papers were not cited by many in fact – they only had two citations and G News laughed a little – when it discovered one of those citations was Shane Reti himself and his team citing itself lol.

    It all made sense.

    By contrast if you look up the publications by Professor Shaun Hendy you will find papers published about Covid Modelling and these are cited by dozens ( eg 96 ) of researchers all over the world working on Covid outbreaks.

    In other words you have the real deal at the cutting edge of modelling in Professor Shaun Hendy – and you have a pretender, out of date, in a different field and a person not above fiddling with the truth ( video edit ) to get ahead in Dr Shane Reti.

    The last time New Zealand saw this sort of shameful editing and media acted upon it – was with Jamie Lee Ross and Advance New Zealand – but NewsHub, the NZ Herald, TVNZ and Stuff all have some kind of blindness to the same sort of low down misinformation being published by National MPs.

    On a final note – fuzzy logic is about partial truth and partial lies – not the whole truth, which made me laugh and shake my head that Dr Shane Reti should have experience in using this.

    On some level I am disappointed that a GP can be this dishonest but on another it does not surprise me if he is surviving alongside Judith Collins and all the fake news that her leadership involves.

    G News will publish the edited 28 second video on Dr Shane Reti's page – alongside the full answers provided by Professor Shaun Hendy soon, so you, the public can see the evidence for yourselves.

    Dr Shane Reti not trustworthy nor qualified

  9. tsmithfield 9
    26 September 2021 at 1:09 pm

    80000 deaths equates to 16000 per 1,000,000 population in NZ. So how does this figure stack up against the real world experience with the virus?

    The answer is here:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    As the table shows, the very worst statistic is Peru with 6125 deaths per million population. The UK was only 2026 deaths per million population.

    Clearly there is no real world example that supports anything close to 16000 deaths per million population. So, it seems clear that the 80000 projection was completely wrong.

    • barry 9.1
      26 September 2021 at 7:32 pm

      Modellers don't have the luxury of hindsight. They use the best available information and make assumptions to fill in the gaps.

      The estimate for the case fatality rate was 4% at the time I think. With better diagnostics, and more effective treatment this has ben shown to be a little lower (about 0.3%). Obviously higher in Peru for some reason.

      So a better figure might have been 10 000 deaths in NZ.

      As for the 7000 per year from the latest modelling: The UK is currently averaging 100 – 200 deaths per day. This is about 3500 or more per year scaled to NZ. The UK probably has over 90% of the population with antibodies from vaccination or infection. So the modelling doesn't seem too unreasonable.

      • Herodotus 9.1.1
        26 September 2021 at 9:41 pm

        Just as well you have been sold that is all that the message was intended IMO to do, SCARE us, how the ignorant are fooled 🤦🏼‍♀️ I will give you 1 other scenario from the same report that the 7000 is sourced from.

        85% vaccinated of over 12's with a high VW will result in 191 deaths and 1,720 hospitalisations over a year(page 6). That is a few less than the 7000. Funny how that wasn't part of the manipulation of the telecast or the analysis of others here. For those " You want answers?! I want the truth! You can't handle the truth!"
        Review this link
        And here I got the impression that those on the left would seek out the truth and not distort. I hope this will help those superior to me to explain the modelling and outputs to the rest of us

        https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy.pdf

    • McFlock 9.2
      26 September 2021 at 10:18 pm

      Clearly there is no real world example that supports anything close to 16000 deaths per million population.

      Is there any country in the world that continued business as usual either by government mandate or by zero behaviour change in the habits of individuals? Any country where individuals still went to pubs and concerts at the same level, no masks, and no contact tracing or surveillance testing?

      No?

      Bullshitting as usual then.

      • tsmithfield 9.2.1
        27 September 2021 at 6:50 am

        So, you think modellers should make the assumption that people will notice people dropping around them like flies and continue with life as if it wasn't happening?

        Even without government intervention people would naturally develop strategies to try and reduce the chance of getting sick such as avoiding sick people etc.

        To be useful models should factor in likely interpersonal and government reactions to the situation otherwise they will never be useful and will never approximate what will happen in the real world.

        If the model was useful, it should be possible to point to at least one real world example where the scenario actually played out in a similar way as predicted. As I pointed out, there is no such example.

        • KJT 9.2.1.1
          27 September 2021 at 7:14 am

          Hendy's modelling of the number of cases that we would get, given the public health measures we did take was, in fact, very close. Inconvenient as that reality may be, for those obsessed with bagging the Government.

          As was made clear in the briefing, modelling, as you would expect, gave a range of scenarios from worst case to best, to inform descision making. That is what it is for.

          Contrary to your statement, there are places where the worst case scenario has played out. There is good reason to suspect, as some of those places don’t even test for covid anymore, that it is even worse numbers than any we have seen.

        • SPC 9.2.1.2
          27 September 2021 at 12:11 pm

          In the UK people are dying at 1000 per week (5000 pa in per capita terms here), despite this the government has no lock downs as they head into winter, and is not going to establish vaccine passports.

          Presuming that governments would act with a high death rate is not always accurate.

        • McFlock 9.2.1.3
          27 September 2021 at 1:13 pm

          Well, going by some other nations, modellers should at least incorporate into their range of assumptions the possibility that a statistically significant portion of the population are fucking morons plague enthusiasts reluctant to change their behaviour, yes.

          Hendy included the range of possibilities from us being a bunch of fucking morons freedom-loving individuals who'd want to avoid lockdowns or travel controls or isolation or quarantine, to us actually having a full L4 lockdown to control any outbreak so grandma might see the year out.

          Fortunately, we chose the latter extreme.

          • tsmithfield 9.2.1.3.1
            27 September 2021 at 4:25 pm

            Yes I have read the report and I realise there are a number of scenarios in increasing levels of control.

            But the worst case scenario of "no control" is completely unrealistic in the real world, and hence not useful, and can only lead to scaremongering, especially when picked up by the media and politicians with an agenda.

            "No control" implies that people and governments ignore the fact that people are dropping like flies everywhere.

            However, "No Control" is a completely unrealistic scenario because fear drives people into steps to minimise risk. For instance, businesses would start forbidding employees not to come to work if sick. In the SARS outbreak many (especially in Asian countries near the outbreak) started wearing masks. And people would start avoiding people who appeared sick.

            So, a more useful worst case scenario would be to allow for natural type control measures such as these, rather than assume no control measures whatsoever.

            • McFlock 9.2.1.3.1.1
              27 September 2021 at 4:39 pm

              Well, including a null value can help provide context to the scale of other responses.

              But on the flipside, the yanks and brits spent much of 2020 closer to "no control" than any genuine attempt at infection control, so I'm not sure how "unrealistic" it actually was. Spring Break and Sturgis, for example.

    • SPC 9.3
      27 September 2021 at 12:04 pm

      It was made in March 2020 when the death rate from infection was still a guestimate (before the treatment with dexamethasone).

  10. Herodotus 10
    27 September 2021 at 9:06 am

    Modellers do not come Out with a single outcome, refer to my post above and the link to the paper that the 7000 deaths with a different mix of variables were based on, same paper has 191 deaths. there is a matrix of variables and from these tables of outcomes. Funny how no one else can link there comments to the tables or raw data, perhaps they do not know how to find these. If only they had google and 2 minutes

    • Incognito 10.1
      27 September 2021 at 11:27 am

      The link to the full study is in the first three words of the original post (OP):

      About those numbers.

      It is also highlighted further down in the OP:

      One of the big unknowns at present is the vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant.

      "As the effects of the vaccine on transmission remain uncertain, we consider three levels of vaccine effectiveness: high, central, and low to illustrate a range of possibilities."

      This has a profound effect on the results and it should be pointed out that it is mainly the number predictions based on the assumption of central vaccine effectiveness that are mentioned and discussed in the news media.

      People ought to read before they comment in which case they wouldn’t have to use “google and 2 minutes”.

      • Herodotus 10.1.1
        27 September 2021 at 11:57 am

        I have read both links I have referred to regarding the report, my google and 2 minutes comment referred to seeking out and locating the report and the background to the methodology, which I cannot see the post refers to.

        Regarding the 50% effectiveness there is no allowance that there would be a response of a 3rd jab, which anyone with a brain in leadership would instigate.

        • Incognito 10.1.1.1
          27 September 2021 at 12:05 pm

          The link right at the top of the OP links directly to the original study by Hendy et al. In that report, you’ll find the references to the methodology they used, as is good practice in scientific study reports.

          The authors of the report clearly mention waning immunity and booster shots:

          Note that these scenarios ignore the effects of waning immunity, which may well be significant over the timescales considered here, but which could be mitigated with vaccine boosters.

          People ought to read before they comment.

  11. Herodotus 11
    27 September 2021 at 12:31 pm

    "People ought to read before they comment." Who is that directed to ??

    You did not link this that I can see.

    https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/outbreak-tracking-and-projections.pdf

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    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    3 days ago

  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    3 days ago

  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • National’s murderous smoking policy
    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago

  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    7 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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