Grant Robertson is a financial genius

Written By: - Date published: 1:22 pm, October 9th, 2018 - 80 comments
Categories: business, Economy, grant robertson, labour, Steven Joyce, tax, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags:

Remember the $11.5 billion hole that Stephen Joyce and National said Labour was going to leave the country with?  Well the 2017/18 financial books have been completed and released and the Government’s surplus was $2.4 billion greater than forecast.

From Tova O’Brien at Stuff:

The Government is awash with cash, recording a surplus of $5.5 billion – $2.4 billion more than forecast.

The 2017/18 financial books have been opened and major tax haul of $80.2 billion has left the government flush.

But Finance Minister Grant Robertson is warning about risks like international trade wars and mycoplasma bovis or other biosecurity incursions which could eat into the surplus.

The good thing is that there should be plenty now for the Government to deal properly with the Teachers’ pay  negotiations.  And the other good think is that it finally buries the lies that National was peddling about Labour’s fiscal ability.

80 comments on “Grant Robertson is a financial genius ”

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  1. Dukeofurl 1
    9 October 2018 at 1:25 pm

    “The Government is awash with cash, recording a surplus of $5.5 billion – $2.4 billion more than forecast.”

    Not awash with cash . Its accrual accounting so is NOT a cash amount, as it excludes capital spending.

    On a cash basis they are still borrowing, not that there is anything wrong with that as its still a good result.

    Its pathetic that experienced gallery reporters made simple mistakes in news reports

    • Enough is Enough 1.1
      9 October 2018 at 1:32 pm

      The Press Gallery has no understanding of accounting at all as is shown by this.

      Under both governments the media just publish what they are told by the Finance Minister without any independent thought or analysis.

      It is embarrassing.

      • alwyn 1.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 1:50 pm

        “The Press Gallery has no understanding of accounting at all as is shown by this”.
        Why are you complaining?
        After all we have a Prime Minister who, when given an early briefing on this material, thought that these numbers were the GDP figures.
        She doesn’t even know what GDP is. Now that level of ignorance really scares me.
        It is a great deal more worrying than a bunch of idiot reporters.

        • Dukeofurl 1.1.1.1
          9 October 2018 at 1:58 pm

          It was just a mis spoke – from the context she should have said , ‘I dont get the GDP ‘ and then talked about – these numbers- which she does have advance knowledge of .
          You be suprised who previously was ‘mis spoken’

          https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/i-misheard-mispoke-did-not-lie-%E2%80%93-key-166017
          “I misheard, misspoke, but did not lie – Key”

          • alwyn 1.1.1.1.1
            9 October 2018 at 2:06 pm

            You are stretching a bit, aren’t you?
            She was asked about GDP.
            She asked for the question to be repeated. The interviewer again said GDP.
            She then said GDP herself and started to talk about having had “hints” of the result. That is NOT that she “misheard”.
            She clearly hadn’t the slightest idea what GDP was. Her error was vastly greater than being “misspeaking” and certainly wasn’t “mishearing”.
            Good try as a defence but no cigar.

            • Dukeofurl 1.1.1.1.1.1
              9 October 2018 at 2:16 pm

              So that shows that she was having trouble hearing the word… which was the case.

              Who really is listening that close to Hoskings words anyway… perhaps a baby was crying at the other end !

            • SPC 1.1.1.1.1.2
              9 October 2018 at 5:56 pm

              There were coming ascross her desk figures showing revenues above forecast, something that will not occur if the GDP figure is going to disappoint.

              Who exactly is not showing economic nous, Mike Hosking et al?

      • Dukeofurl 1.1.2
        9 October 2018 at 3:14 pm

        “media just publish what they are told by the Finance Minister ”

        Ah no . Its the year end June 2018 Financial accounts as published by Treasury.

        Not that it would help you but you should try the source data some time
        https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2018-10/fsgnz-year-jun18.pdf

  2. Sacha 2
    9 October 2018 at 1:37 pm

    “there should be plenty now for the Government to deal properly with the Teachers’ pay negotiations.”

    Yes. Let’s see the priorities.

    • Dukeofurl 2.1
      9 October 2018 at 2:05 pm

      No its not. Its not a cash surplus.

      if the teachers couldnt be bothered asking for ‘more pay’ during the Key years why should they expect a full catch up now ?

      • mickysavage 2.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 2:15 pm

        It is OBEGAL. Sure capital comes out of this and borrowing but it is more money the Government has than was forecast.

      • Fran 2.1.2
        9 October 2018 at 7:08 pm

        Teachers did ask for payrises during the “Key” years and ended up having to swallow dead rats because ” the global financial crisis”. Big promises were made that if teachers were good and swallowed the rats then there would be a payoff in the next round. National thought they would still be in Government, Labour has inherited yet another mess of Nationals making here.

        • In Vino 2.1.2.1
          9 October 2018 at 10:56 pm

          As I remember, PPTA (Secondary Schools) were all set to make a big, big fight in 2011. But then the Christchurch earthquakes happened. PPTA had to can it all. You can’t go on National strike etc when most will blame you for being selfish, and detracting from the disaster-stricken… So they accepted one of those false offers like the current one: BIG % number – BUT -over 5 years; only a small percentage per year, each one eaten away by over 1% inflation for that year… And that is why teachers’ pay has slipped behind other professions.
          Teachers were going to make a last stand this year regardless of which party was Govt. People like Dukeofurl need to stop moaning about picking on Labour, and look at the real problem.

        • Dukeofurl 2.1.2.2
          10 October 2018 at 11:45 am

          GFC ended largely by 2012. What happened in the 5 years after that ?

          Even by 2016 I think the claim was 1 or 2% . What were they thinking, that 3 or 4% was worth going on strike for ? This was 2016 or so. not during the peak GFC of 2008 -2011

          • In Vino 2.1.2.2.1
            11 October 2018 at 5:57 pm

            GFC had nothing to do with it. Ended largely by 2011 as much as 2012. The employer-favouring laws give only a limited period where strike action is legal, and, as I said, the Christchurch earthquakes thwarted PPTA’s intentions of fighting in 2011.
            I believe the next round of negotiations and possible strikes etc was in 2015, when strikes were possible again. I was in semi-retirement then, and cannot recall what went on. But these disastrous agreements that last over a number of years leave few windows of opportunity for strike action.

    • marty mars 2.2
      9 October 2018 at 2:05 pm

      + 1 yep and more, much more for mental. Health.

      • Dukeofurl 2.2.1
        9 October 2018 at 2:18 pm

        Wheres the trained staff ….. more magic wandism

        As Cullen showed , you have to put money aside when economy is humming along as bad times could be not too far away.

        • Siobhan 2.2.1.1
          9 October 2018 at 2:37 pm

          Its not a surplus (or whatever) when your tax payers are desperate for a roof over their heads….this is the bad times, and best fixed while we still can, before the state of inequality gets worse, because inequality is a thing far easier to halt than to turn around. And if we don’t get on top of it before the next crash things may get ugly.

          https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/rnz/napier-rental-gets-900-inquiries

          • marty mars 2.2.1.1.1
            9 October 2018 at 2:47 pm

            Yep exactly.

          • cleangreen 2.2.1.1.2
            9 October 2018 at 5:35 pm

            Wow Siobhan I have some flats there and we are only getting $250 weekly!!!!!

            Time to increase the rent looks like eh!

            • Siobhan 2.2.1.1.2.1
              9 October 2018 at 7:41 pm

              Well, you could try.
              Though its also an area with the crappiest wages.
              Maybe Labour will increase the rent subsidies for you. In fact they are bound to. Or you could just wait for the next rise in the minimum wage and increase your rent to take the lot.

              Of course both these options are morally dubious. But if Labour allows and in fact encourages such exploitation then who am I to judge.

              Of course such actions have been taken by landlords throughout history, and usually end badly soon or latter.

              Then again, you could keep the rent at your current a fair amount, that way, once you have the right tenant, you will know they will do everything to stay long-term.

              Always an advantage.

              Nothing quite like a satisfied customer.

              It makes being in business so much pleasanter.

        • marty mars 2.2.1.2
          9 October 2018 at 2:50 pm

          You are out of touch. I had a friend call the suicide helpline last night for someone they were concerned about. No one available – they called back in 10. You don’t think money could help that?

  3. Pete 3
    9 October 2018 at 2:00 pm

    What I’ve got out of it so far:
    The Press Gallery is hopeless, Jacinda Ardern is is hopeless, Grant Robertson is hopeless and Steven Joyce is a genius.

    That’s right isn’t it?

    • Dukeofurl 3.1
      9 October 2018 at 2:06 pm

      Joyce was liar – we all knew that before the election.

      • cleangreen 3.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 5:50 pm

        Correct Dukeofurl= Steven joyce was a bald faced lair.

        he lied that he didn’t do anything ‘improper’ ever and this showed he made a deal that Matthew Hooten stated in this clip with a roading contractor illegally for amost $100 million Matthew said in front of Radio live Mark Sainsbury, Michelle boag, Mike Williams and Duncan Garner.at (26 minutes and 52 seconds on the clip) .

        http://www.thepaepae.com/matthew-hootons-assertions-re-the-prime-ministers-office/35076/
        I’ve archived it here too (audio player below) because RadioLIVE only keeps 7 days audio available and I’ve noticed sometimes Mediaworks launders its talkback station’s audio feed when things get … contentious.

        Mark Sainsbury hosts ‘Sunday morning’ at RadioLIVE with guests Michelle Boag, Mike Williams, Matthew Hooton & Duncan Garner 31 Aug 2014
        MP3 file
        – P

        enclosure: http://www.thepaepae.com/wp-uploads/2014/08/Boag-Hooton-Williams-RadioLIVE-Sunday-morning-31Aug14.mp3 24057464 audio/mpeg

      • Incognito 3.1.2
        9 October 2018 at 11:00 pm

        The L-word gets doled a wee bit too easily nowadays especially when referring to politicians with whom one doesn’t agree.

        My view is that Joyce smoked his own dope and was mesmerised by his own righteousness and intellect, with a bit of help from MSM, which really made him more human than Borg. When a dildo landed on his face he actually showed a SoH too. Anyway, he’s gone and now we have Grant the Genius …

        • RedLogix 3.1.2.1
          9 October 2018 at 11:46 pm

          The L-word gets doled a wee bit too easily nowadays especially when referring to politicians with whom one doesn’t agree.

          Yeah. It’s frequently used as a lazy shortcut to outrage; not helpful.

          • Incognito 3.1.2.1.1
            10 October 2018 at 12:06 am

            And then there’s the H-word, the R-word, the C-word (no, not Marama’s one), the S-word, etc.

            When I was young, I loved sticky labels but now they have lost their appeal and they’re on par with chewing gum trodden into the carpet and cigarette butts cast in pot plants. Filthy lazy habits some people have …

            Sorry, I seem to find myself bored tonight 🙁

  4. Stuart Munro 4
    9 October 2018 at 2:19 pm

    I’m not sure about genius.

    He seems to be vaguely competent, which is certainly more than can be said for the last lot.

    Rockstar pretensions notwithstanding.

    • mickysavage 4.1
      9 October 2018 at 2:57 pm

      Rhetorical florish in response to National’s attacks from last year.

      • Dukeofurl 4.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 3:02 pm

        Does Robertston have a MNZGA cap ?

      • Stuart Munro 4.1.2
        9 October 2018 at 4:15 pm

        It’s a Blomkvist perspective: looking around NZ parliament one does not see very many people in immediate danger of Nobel nomination. The musical talents of the last lot fell a bit short of Eminemesque too – if they’d been up to playing a cover version the artist might’ve been more sympathetic.

        The use of ‘genius’ therefore is lazy reporting at best, but more often than not, not reporting at all. Mere repeating of unaltered (in fact probably unread) press releases.

        Which is so far short of basic journalism standards that those responsible should be receiving no more than cadet pay rates.

        • mickysavage 4.1.2.1
          9 October 2018 at 4:30 pm

          Does this mean I get paid? 😀

          • Stuart Munro 4.1.2.1.1
            9 October 2018 at 5:05 pm

            On the whole you probably do rather better than a great number of MSM professionals – which damns you with faint praise and damns them utterly – they had one job…

          • greywarshark 4.1.2.1.2
            9 October 2018 at 5:10 pm

            We have talked on this blog about chocolate fish in the past, which is a cheery gesture, but the trouble is I feel that you are priceless so what’s to be done there. Are you angling for a Chrissy present. You and Lynn deserve one. A nice carton of boutique ale perhaps?

        • Dukeofurl 4.1.2.2
          9 October 2018 at 4:50 pm

          The people in parliament , you are so dismissive of Stuart Munro, all have one thing that you will never have .
          They were elected .

          • Stuart Munro 4.1.2.2.1
            9 October 2018 at 5:02 pm

            I’m not dismissive of them – only of the claim that they are geniuses. Which is as absurd of Robertson as it was of Muldoon. Or English.

      • JC 4.1.3
        9 October 2018 at 10:14 pm

        “$5.5b surplus demands respect”

        “Comment – The Government accounts are in a strong position and the envy of a lot of countries around the globe.”

        https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/368291/5-point-5b-surplus-demands-respect

        And as i recall.. aren’t they also, NOW, paying into the ” Cullen Fund”, i.e. Superanuation … unlike the previous several years!

        https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/super-fund-contributions-secure-generational-legacy

        Respect!

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    9 October 2018 at 2:39 pm

    An amusing headline. Some readers may even take you seriously, eh? I never did Economics 1.01 but those who did probably got taught that govt surpluses are generated by the income to spending ratio.

    At best, you could give the finance minister credit for holding the austerity line on spending, in accord with the neoliberal doctrine of the Bilderbergers. Tax income, if higher than usual, comes from the collective payment of kiwi businesses, so they deserve credit for that. So you could amend the headline to Local Capitalists are Financial Geniuses, ably supported by Grant Robertson! Then we could all stand around and applaud the left/right solidarity.

    But then again, I’m no expert on economics. If anyone is sure I’m wrong about this, we could benefit from a comprehensive explanation why.

    • Dukeofurl 5.1
      9 October 2018 at 2:57 pm

      What does that even mean…. well you are no expert is true.

      Did you know that counted in the ‘governments balances’ is $545,950,000 is residential tenancies bonds, ie other peoples money.
      thats $0.5 Bill of real money
      all the Crown ‘trust accounts like that come to $0.93 bill of other people money. ( page 141 of financial statements)

      When other spending is taken into account there is a ‘residual cash surplus of $ 1.3 bill

      That is mostly because of timing of spending so is more a case of spending = income.
      page 5
      https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2018-10/fsgnz-year-jun18.pdf

      • Dennis Frank 5.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 3:16 pm

        Interesting that they include tenancy bonds as govt income! Surely such bonds get repaid when tenancies end? If so, seems extremely mickey mouse to call them part of a surplus as if they are spendable by the govt. Are you suggesting the govt does actually spend them (rather than keep them in a holding account) because it can always repay the individual amounts when necessary (like a private bank)?

        • Dukeofurl 5.1.1.1
          9 October 2018 at 3:52 pm

          Well they arent part of the spending , but its part of the ‘crown balances’ along with $16 bill of Kiwibank deposits!!

          That part comes into it when they have the total government borrowings against ‘balances’.
          Thats why I look for the cash basis and the full year borrowing.

    • left_forward 5.2
      10 October 2018 at 8:09 am

      Surpluses are not generated by a ratio, but the difference between accrued income and accrued expenditure.
      For some reason you excluded the major tax contribution of wage and salary earners in your analysis.
      While taxation is so low, driven by Natz policies, expenditure also needs to be conservative. To move from the austere spending environment inherited from them, we either need to run surpluses or increase taxation.
      You are certainly no expert.

      • Dennis Frank 5.2.1
        10 October 2018 at 8:32 am

        Neither are you. Can’t even figure out that the difference derives from the ratio! The reason I didn’t mention the tax paid by employees is that it isn’t as cyclic as that paid by business. The business cycle is often dramatised in the media as boom/bust but those are just the extremes – normally there are just years when business is good and others when it’s sluggish. Never seen a media story referring to any such cycle in employee income so we can assume it is normally steady state, right? So the big surplus cannot be explained as employee-produced.

  6. UncookedSelachimorpha 6
    9 October 2018 at 2:47 pm

    A surplus is bollocks when we have homeless and child poverty. One interpretation is that you didn’t spend enough… And a surplus can result from the failed policy of austerity (austerity for the majority, largesse for the wealthy).

    Not to mention the whole nonsense of thinking that the state budget is the same as a household budget. A fundamental lie that Labour perpetuates, as demonstrated by the fiscal responsibility nonsense. Not to say the Greens and National are any better in that respect.

    Bill Mitchell puts the lie to the kind of thinking that worries about government surplus:

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/201852897/there-s-no-such-thing-as-fair-austerity

    While I think Labour have much better intentions than NAct – they continue to be locked to the same neoliberal lies, which greatly limits their ability to improve things. Attempting to educate the public on how state finance actually works would be a useful public service.

    • Pete 6.1
      9 October 2018 at 3:03 pm

      A surplus is bollocks if it’s the Other Lot who comes up with it and a work of intellect, genius and fantastic management if it’s your own lot.

      • Dukeofurl 6.1.1
        9 October 2018 at 3:11 pm

        Who ever said the other lot having a ‘surplus’ ( not really in cash terms) is bollocks.
        I think they said having tax cuts was bollocks when you are in the small period when economy is at full blat.

      • greywarshark 6.1.2
        9 October 2018 at 5:12 pm

        No a surplus and embedded structural poverty are always the same, whatever ‘lot’ are in power.

    • left_forward 6.2
      10 October 2018 at 8:02 am

      A surplus is essential for any sustained program to address homelessness and poverty and other social investments.
      You are being naive – the opposite, fiscal irresponsibility will mean the Government does not have the resources to invest in people. You are advocating the policies of the right, with their intent to reduce the size of the state (i.e. reduce tax, reduce spend, reduce state equity).
      The analogy of the state budget being like the household budget is a very useful way to think about it, particularly if you can’t get your head around it.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 6.2.1
        10 October 2018 at 11:55 am

        You didn’t listen to the Bill Mitchell interview it seems? If not, you would find it interesting.

        “A surplus is essential for any sustained program to address homelessness and poverty and other social investments….The analogy of the state budget being like the household budget is a very useful way to think about it, particularly if you can’t get your head around it.”

        No it isn’t x 2. A household cannot issue New Zealand dollars, the government can. There is no bank account with “tax” going in and “government expenditure” going out – and the government has to worry about this account running out of cash. Doesn’t work that way for a state. Does for a household.

        “You are advocating the policies of the right, with their intent to reduce the size of the state (i.e. reduce tax, reduce spend, reduce state equity).”

        No – I am advocating the opposite. I support more state expenditure and involvement, and more tax. The latter for the purpose of redistributing real resources however – not because it is needed for the government to have money to spend.

        • left_forward 6.2.1.1
          10 October 2018 at 2:55 pm

          No. I did listen to the interview and although interesting, his idea is pretty fringe. When he was asked about the convention of matching bonds to an issue of cash, he described this as fake knowledge but did not provide to me at least, a convincing explanation other than the idea that a robust economy simply absorbs it. This skates over the consequence of the action – the accounting process to create a credit in any accounting system needs a corresponding debit – this is how double entry accounting works – the basics of accounting. Government’s do not have a magical wand to create credit from nowhere.

          Describing the convention as bollocks as you did (in the context of the Government’s impressive surplus – thus undermining the achievement) is pretty steep considering that your alternative idea does not appear to meet basic accounting standards.

          • UncookedSelachimorpha 6.2.1.1.1
            11 October 2018 at 1:16 am

            Yes, MMT is currently a fringe way of thinking – and I am only starting to get my own head around it.

            Thinking MMT is in violation of double-entry accounting standards might be an example of confusing private finance with state finance. A firm (or individual) has revenue, expense, asset, liability etc accounts, and yes, they all balance with double entry transactions. But the state has an extra capacity that the private sector does not – the ability to issue its own currency – from nowhere. From an accounting point of view, I suppose this could appear in double entry accounts as a form of revenue (I’m no expert!).

            The government (and yes, private banks) does create credit from nowhere – where else do NZ dollars come from? The people buying government bonds, for example, are not creating the money they use to purchase them.

            And governments have to spend first (creating money), before they can collect tax (getting money back). The idea they must tax first, in order to spend, is incorrect. Tax is still absolutely necessary – but not to permit spending. Managing the amount of government spending is likewise still important – but the supply of NZ dollars from taxation does not limit government spending (they can just make more).

            The following were quite helpful to my own understanding:

            http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=11161

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/randy-wray-modern-monetary-theory-basics.html

            I suspect we are not far apart in our basic outlook – for example I strongly support “tax and spend” to achieve good social outcomes, including reducing inequality. MMT is just making me think the “tax” and the “spend” is not linked in the way we are often told they are.

            • left_forward 6.2.1.1.1.1
              11 October 2018 at 10:05 am

              I certainly want to believe that you are right about this, but my own experience makes me naturally wary of the idea. I can agree with a lot of the discussion in these articles… particularly the idea of spend first, and tax later if necessary.
              Accordingly, I modify my previously expressed view on the essential need to create the surplus first.
              As many have said on this thread, we need to urgently restore our investment in social supports for people in need (yes indeed – welfare!), and I accept that this should be the priority for the Government.
              This should not only be in education and much needed support to teachers, but also in primary health and social services.

              I agree that we are not far apart on our outlook.

              • KJT …
                14 October 2018 at 10:32 am

                Spend first, tax later is exactly how the initial round of State housing was financed.

                The increase in economic activity, and efficiency from comfortably housed workers returned the spending, in spades.

                Avoiding having to pay compounding interest to private sector banks was a big plus of this approach.

                Using bank “printed” money to bid up land prices is doing us no favours. Overseas finance now takes out more than dairy exports, earn!

                Governments current round of borrowing at interest, to spend, started with the IMF. Basically a privatisation of Government financing.

                Governments always find the money when needed for war. The war on poverty and decaying infrastructure is no different.

          • Nic the NZer 6.2.1.1.2
            14 October 2018 at 10:00 am

            It is incorrect to think MMT doesn’t respect double entry accounting, MMT is built on and depends on double entry accounting.

            There is a central accounting identity derived from GDP accounts known as the ‘Sectoral Balances’ approach (look it up). This demonstrates that every dollar of government surplus is supplied by collecting that income from the rest of the economy (and the reverse for a deficit) and so reducing the non government sectors spending capacity. This means if the private sector maintains its spending over a falling income it must increase its indebted-ness to do so. This is derived by accounting so it is an unavoidable consequence.

            The other important factor is that in NZ the government instructs the central bank of NZ what to do. The RBNZ has an absolute monopoly on creation of NZ dollar currency (its the only institution allowed to create this kind of money), so all the governments spending (the NZ government pretty much exclusively taxes and spends NZ dollar currency) must have come from there.

            The main implication of this is the government can (and already does) create spending at will. This has to respect double entry accounting of course but that is basically automatic if the government decides to borrow directly from the RBNZ (including if its a zero interest overdraft). Basically the government account records an overdraft of the amount the government has spent matching the amounts as the government spends it. The important question here is just if the government is running an overdraft on its spending account, will the RBNZ ever prevent them spending more? And obviously the answer to that is no because its a government institution. As far as I know the finance minister can today instruct the RBNZ to lend to it directly in the legislation which is more of a historical curiosity of social credits influence than used, but it is I think legal today with no changes in the act.

      • KJT 6.2.2
        14 October 2018 at 10:23 am

        No. Because a household cannot issue more currency to match an increase in trading, goods and services traded, like a Government can..
        The analogy between a Government and a household, like most over simplifications, gives a totally false idea of how Government spending works.

        Until recently economists ignored the effect of finance considering it simply a redistribution over time. Not the creation of money that it is. A bit of a puzzle that opponents of Governments “printing money” which always used to be a function of Government, ignore the uncontrolled effects of private banking, printing money. Of course this made their models unrealistic. Hence their shock when surprised by the GFC.

  7. One Two 7
    9 October 2018 at 3:33 pm

    5.5Bn… is a made up number

    • Dukeofurl 7.1
      9 October 2018 at 3:55 pm

      Same way they did the numbers when national was in government. Treasury, no friend of labour does the accounting.
      Basically its the money left after income – ‘operational’ spending.
      Operational spending is only part of government spending but the surplus of that a better number than Key and English ever got.

    • Sacha 7.2
      9 October 2018 at 4:34 pm

      3 .. is a magic number.

    • Nic the NZer 7.3
      14 October 2018 at 10:13 am

      Another way of viewing this outcome is treasury got their economic forecast wrong by about 2.4 billion dollars. As the budget projects both the income and expenditure the forecast budget surplus must be derived from a macro economic forecast describing how much tax the government is likely to collect given their spending (essentially).

      As a result of the forecast being wrong the government decided to skimp on public spending to the tune of 2.4 billion dollars (maybe more) even if we take their target surplus as the primary desirable outcome (which its not).

      Further if we decide that treasury’s forecasting error makes their boss a ‘financial genius’, then this kind of outcome seems quite likely to repeat itself.

  8. Larry Mitchell 8
    9 October 2018 at 5:43 pm

    Any Accounting 101 student would recognize your claim (an offset of the $ 11Bn “hole” with the Crown accounts surplus) … as apples compared with lemons.

    They have no direct relationship or offset as one (the hole) refers to a budget projection … where Labour grossly underestimated future charges such as PS pay settlements … compared (erroneously) to a settled interim financial “result” based on actual PS revenue (tax/receipts) transactions.

    There are two sides (a debit-expenses/and a credit-revenues) side to this “fairy tale” folks.

    • Dukeofurl 8.1
      9 October 2018 at 9:11 pm

      That was all covered at the time. Every reputable economist came out in Robertson’s favour while I don’t think Joyce could find a taxi driver to back his theory.
      Much mirth was made of Joyce abysmal failure in his economics subjects at University. In general he was prospective ly a good student but in practice dint do the work and flunked out of a vetinary degree with a poor degree in zoology…..eventually

  9. Ad 9
    9 October 2018 at 5:49 pm

    Hmph. Rainy day.

    Makes English look like he was blowing it all on pussy and beer.

  10. Herodotus 10
    9 October 2018 at 8:21 pm

    Great so now we have a government taking ownership of the present and the future of NZ.
    No more “9 years of ….” that we had from 1st; The Nats and Labour recently.
    More money now available to adequately pay both; primary and secondary teachers.

  11. Jimmy 11
    10 October 2018 at 3:36 pm

    I think the headline is a bit over the top.

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    19 hours ago

  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
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    20 hours ago

  • DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received
    "On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “I raised my concerns after being ...
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    2 days ago

  • District Court Judges appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
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    2 days ago

  • Unions should put learning ahead of ideology
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools.     “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
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    2 days ago

  • Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMA
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
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    2 days ago

  • Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguard
    Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
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    2 days ago

  • New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationship
    New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says.  “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019.  “It is my pleasure ...
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    3 days ago

  • New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New Caledonia
    New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.  “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.  “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
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    3 days ago

  • New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of State
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
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    3 days ago

  • Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card funding
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
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    3 days ago

  • Further sanctions against Russia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
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    3 days ago

  • One year on from Loafers Lodge
    A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
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    3 days ago

  • Pre-Budget speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
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    4 days ago

  • New Zealand and Vanuatu to deepen collaboration
    New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says.    “This ...
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    4 days ago

  • Penk travels to Peru for trade meetings
    Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
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    4 days ago

  • Minister attends global education conferences
    Minister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...
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    4 days ago

  • Education Minister thanks outgoing NZQA Chair
    Minister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...
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    4 days ago

  • Joint statement of Christopher Luxon and Emmanuel Macron: Launch of the Christchurch Call Foundation
    New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.   This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...
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    5 days ago

  • Panel announced for review into disability services
    Distinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...
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    5 days ago

  • Minister welcomes Police gang unit
    Today’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...
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    5 days ago

  • New Zealand expresses regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners.  “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...
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    5 days ago

  • New Chief of Defence Force appointed
    Air Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...
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    5 days ago

  • Government puts children first by repealing 7AA
    Legislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...
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    5 days ago

  • Defence Minister to meet counterparts in UK, Italy
    Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...
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    5 days ago

  • Charter schools to lift educational outcomes
    The upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...
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    5 days ago

  • COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference consultation results received
    “The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...
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    5 days ago

  • The Pacific family of nations – the changing security outlook
    Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests  Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues  Ladies and Gentlemen,  Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru    It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...
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    5 days ago

  • NZ and Papua New Guinea to work more closely together
    Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...
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    6 days ago

  • Driving ahead with Roads of Regional Significance
    The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
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    6 days ago

  • New Zealand congratulates new Solomon Islands government
    A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office.    “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
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    6 days ago

  • New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolution
    New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
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    1 week ago

  • Speech to the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
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    1 week ago

  • $571 million for Defence pay and projects
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Climate change – mitigating the risks and costs
    New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
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    1 week ago

  • Getting new job seekers on the pathway to work
    Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
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    1 week ago

  • Accelerating Social Investment
    A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says.  “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
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    1 week ago

  • Getting Back on Track
    Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with  your Board and team, for hosting me.   I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
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    1 week ago

  • NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
    Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith,   Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States,   Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us.   Ladies and gentlemen -    In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Therapeutic Products Act to be repealed
    The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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