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Herald poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, August 26th, 2015 - 89 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Much nonsense is written about polls. People (some of whom really should know better) try to create narratives out of noise. Long term aggregate trends matter, individual polls are just data points. Here’s the latest data point:

Labour’s support recovers to 30s

Labour’s support has climbed back to the 30s for the first time in a Herald-DigiPoll survey since Andrew Little became leader nine months ago. The result, 31 per cent, will be a major psychological boost for Labour because 30 per cent represents a credibility threshold for parties that might expect to lead a government.

National 50.8% (-0.2%)
Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
United Future 0.0% (nc)
ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

That article, and some other pieces, make much of Jacinda Ardern’s appearance in the Preferred PM list. Good for her! But take home message – trading votes around the political left won’t win anything, we need to see National’s vote come down.

89 comments on “Herald poll ”

  1. timbo 1

    Hear hear.

    The Herald piece helpfully breaks down the vote in terms of “Auckland” v “Rest of New Zealand”. We’ve all known that the Greens have struggled in Auckland, but something needs to be done to break the virtual monopoly National has there. Their U-turn on the Rail Link was politically savvy, as it stuffed a finger in a hole in the dike that might have bled votes. Labour is obviously trying to find the new hole with house prices, but somehow needs to find a new hole.

    • Undecided 1.1

      I think the whole thing around chinese buying houses has probably stymied the potential growth Labour could have recieved (considering the dogs bollix National has been lately) so hopefully that type of thing is put on the back burner and not brought out again

      • maui 1.1.1

        I’m not sure about that, Labour saying nothing on relevant issues and getting a surge in the polls?

    • BM 1.2

      Len Brown is killing Labour in Auckland.

      I can see why National stays out of local body politics.

      • save NZ 1.2.1

        Phil Goff still has ‘issues’ too…

      • save NZ 1.2.2

        Len Brown is a Nat Lite.

        • BM 1.2.2.1

          Len Brown was endorsed by Labour.
          In the public’s eye, he’s Labour.

          • Ben 1.2.2.1.1

            Yes Len is ‘from the Left’, but I’m not sure how many people actually associate Len’s failings with the Labour party. Certainly not an excuse for low Labour polling in Auckland.

          • dukeofurl 1.2.2.1.2

            Who are you kidding about national stays out local body politics ?

            The main organisation is City Vision, its not too dissimilar to C&R.

          • tinfoilhat 1.2.2.1.3

            I’m pretty sure that Len Brown is equally despised by where ever one would position themselves on all sides of the political spectrum.

            Similarly I’m pretty sure those who would vote for National wouldn’t be fussed where the next mayor of Auckland came from politically as long as they could make a reasonable effort of cleaning up the shambles that is the ARC and its multiple CCOs.

      • BM .You must be living in la/la land if you believe the Nats stay out of local body politics . For years they have dominated local councils. They call themselfs independent.Just try and stand for local elections in the rural areas if you are even slightly onthe Left.The fact is most local body councils are dominated by bloody Tories.

  2. save NZ 2

    The reason the left, suffer in Auckland is the capital gains tax policy. Although Labour said they have got rid of that it is still listed as a policy on their website.

    There are better ways to collect property taxes than capital gains. However in the interests of getting elected property property is something very close to the minds and hearts of Kiwis and to try to tax it can and has, backfired. 65% do still own their own property so it is a big number to effect.

    Most Auckland’s are up to their ears in property debt so hearing talk about crashing the market, raising interest rates or taxes or increasing property taxes in any way will have an immediate effect on their lives.

    Wages are so low in this country. Property is how many save for retirement. It maybe wrong ideologically for many people, but it is a reality. Unlike Europe and the US we have slave wages unable to keep up with the cost of living.

    There is little alternative’s than investing in property for many. With zero job security, having a nest egg unable to be stolen from banks, not dropping like a stone in the share markets and making real appreciations in line with inflation or above and able to be self managed and easy to understand, is attractive.

    Clearly something is very wrong the last few years in Auckland property, and the refusal of political parties to go after immigration and foreign property investment controls while singling out locals makes many see red at the double standards.

    The speculation tax is a start. Most people can accept that as a tax as it is a very clear guide and only effects those who are speculating under 2 years and not longer term investing in property.

    But something needs to be done to control foreign capital coming in and buying up the country. Targeting locals with capital gains will do nothing apart from reduce the locals ability to rebuy into the market and most locals already can’t afford the cream of real estate in this country anyway.

    On a different note, Love how all the Nats partners are going down the gurgler in the polls. Even the thought of the Greens doing a deal with the Nats have bought them down.

    Nats destroying their partners just like the country.

    • JanM 2.1

      Auckland has become full of upwardly mobile wannabes and that’s why it’s gone so National – Auckland central was a safe Labour seat not that many elections ago.

      • mickysavage 2.1.1

        Real estate values have made many of us think we are wealthy and owe allegiance to the party of the rich.

        • Anne 2.1.1.1

          Yes, cos you see they’re the ones who made us rich. At least that is how many perceive it even though they have less money in their pockets and are struggling to make ends meet more so than ever.

  3. Sirenia 3

    Hopefully Jacinda will be elected Deputy after Annette King finishes her caretaker year.

    • Undecided 3.1

      I think Annette King is one of (if not) the best performers Labour have, shes someone National respects and for Labours sake should stay on as long as she can

      • dukeofurl 3.1.1

        The polls show labour needs a male aucklander deputy leader to improve their vote in that demographic
        The answer is Phil Goff !

      • Bob 3.1.2

        +1 Annette King has been a bit of a surprise package for me, I always just pictured her in pit-bull mode in the house, but she has actually been the best Labour performer since the election for me. She’s clear and concise with her message, and usually provides it with a smile (which seems to be missing from most in Labour, except Jacinda Ardern who is also on the rise, funny that).

      • Anne 3.1.3

        Agreed. She also does a great job supporting Andrew Little during QT.

        • Dan1 3.1.3.1

          Annette has an authenticity and practical aura that few MPs have. She goes to the heart of any matter. NZ, rather than just the Labour Party , will be poorer for her retirement.
          Can someone who has her ear ask her to hang around another term!

          • whateva next? 3.1.3.1.1

            Aye to that. I would add she is not afraid of saying what she thinks, very refreshing in question time

        • Ron 3.1.3.2

          I would imagine Annette will be standing down this electoral cycle.
          It would open up a good seat in Rongatai and we urgently need new blood in party.
          As for a deputy leader it is probably going to be Grant. He is a good speaker and can get the message across.

    • save NZ 3.2

      Personally I think Labour deputy need’s some sort of ‘honest motivated activist’ type – like Corbyn or Sue Bradford type. A go getter.

      Quite frankly can’t think of anyone in Labour fitting that description. That’s the problem. Maybe like Russel Norman, Labour should look further afield.

      If Jacinda can’t even get elected in her electorate – not a good sign.

      They need to get away from Nat Lite and look like they are in business.

      And the Greens should woo Sue Bradford back. She at least was successful in getting the most private members bills.

      Love her or hate her, Sue Bradford was publicity and extremely results focused.

      People like personality, not bland talkers. Pretty speeches don’t effect people’s day to day lives, actual results do.

      Likewise Labour need a deputy who can get results. Not just talk or look good in Woman’s day.

      Too many barristers and not enough Labourers in Parliament.

      • Ben 3.2.1

        “If Jacinda can’t even get elected in her electorate – not a good sign.”

        Same can be said for Andrew Little. They would make a good team at 0 for 2.

    • Sabine 3.3

      why?
      what has Jacinda done that would warrant the promotion?

      • save NZ 3.3.1

        Probably some ‘marketeers’ idea of a ‘good fit’.

        You know the modern idea, that you just have to look good and fit a profile, than actually do a successful job and make a difference.

        I see a sea change that the public increasingly are getting annoyed with this and actually want substance.

        In fact – my advice is who ever ran and did the marketing for labour’s election campaign last election should never be allowed to be involved again.

        • Undecided 3.3.1.1

          I would add that to be considered for leadership (for Labour and National) you must have won an electorate seat first, no ifs no buts

        • rhinocrates 3.3.1.2

          “You know the modern idea, that you just have to look good and fit a profile, than actually do a successful job and make a difference.”

          Exactly. Too often the case in HR, though there are signs that increasing numbers of companies are seeing through jazzed-up CVs and interviews and looking at quantifiable and recorded performance results.

          Alas, Shearer was a prime example of this nonsense – his CV must have looked good with him warming chairs for the UN (“We’ve had excellent results this quarter with several chairs recording a rise in temperature of as much as two degrees Celsius while he’s been sitting in them!”), but in practice, he was so useless he couldn’t even lose a general election and now they can’t get rid of him.

  4. James 4

    “I see a sea change that the public increasingly are getting annoyed with this and actually want substance.”

    So, using this logic (given his poor poll results ongoing) , the public do not think Little has any substance?

    I would agree with that.

    Who would you suggest to lead labour?

    • save NZ 4.1

      I’m not a huge fan of Little due to his weak surveillance stance on that bill, however my hatred of National is meaning that Labour need to get votes, and gain credibility to win in some sort of coalition. They are the weakest link in my view. Labour plummets, the vote is split then the Nats creep in.

      Textor Crosby clearly know this and are exploiting Labour’s weakness and lack of performance. I think labour expect people to vote for them, without understanding they currently offer very little difference from National.

      The most well known difference between National and Labour is that Labour want to increase top tax rate and possibly put on a capital gains tax and last election wanted to increase the pension age.

      This is probably NOT the best message of difference to voters. There MAYBE approach is a nightmare. I think they think if they just agree with everyone then no one will notice the double speak.

      Like Labour TPPA – No we don’t support TPPA unless 5 very undetailed and unspecific items are met which are meaningless, but yes other than that, we do.

      Does that sound trustworthy and uncomplicated?

      In short I think that Labour needs to keep hold of Little as leader as any change in leadership or in fighting will further take away any credibility the party has.

      They made their choice and need to stick with Little. The deputy position then becomes important.

      They need someone UNLIKE Little – a doer. A fighter.

      Little’s best line has been to ‘cut the crap’.

      And that is what will win the next election. And that is what the deputy role needs to do.

      • whateva next? 4.1.1

        National’s best weapon is the ability to undermine whoever leads the left, and incite bickering on the left.You have to admit, they are masterful manipulators, leaving plenty of time to swan to Hawaii and play golf, NOTHING else required.They hardly even lift a finger to govern the country, yet no-one notices whilst busy attacking Labour.

        • save NZ 4.1.1.1

          @Whateva next – totally agree.

          That is the Nat strategy – manipulation of Labour – and it is working.

      • Ron 4.1.2

        One would hope that Labour’s inner circle are reading the english papers as to what is happening in England. Sometimes it seems that the average politician has no idea what is going on outside of their offices.

        They need someone UNLIKE Little – a doer. A fighter.

        Little’s best line has been to ‘cut the crap’.

        And that is what will win the next election. And that is what the deputy role needs to do.

  5. Colonial Viper 5

    Men don’t really like today’s Labour Party. Women are far more likely to be Labour supporters than men: 36% to 26%.

    The elderly don’t like today’s Labour Party. Only 23.4% of those 65 and over support Labour, compared to 38% of those 18 to 39.

    A massive 58% of those over 65 support National. And these people always turnout at General Elections.

    The poll shows Labour rising 2.3%.

    The margin of error for the poll is 3.6%.

    • Anne 5.1

      Men don’t really like today’s Labour Party.

      Too many of them identify with Key’s ‘macho’ image. Irrational as their response was,
      “manbans” and “being sorry for being a man” registered negatively on the male mind and it’s going to be some time before they forget it.

      The elderly don’t like today’s Labour Party.

      That’s because the mere suggestion they might one day raise the super age scared the living daylights out of them – including those coming up to 65.

      The moral of the story?

      a) Cut the PC crap and talk in everyday Kiwi language.

      b) When announcing policy be brief and precise with the wording and DON’T FRIGHTEN THE HORSES.

      PS. CV you can probably advise me. My arrow is out of control. What do I do to remedy…?

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

        Although IMO Key is actually not a very macho Kiwi male at all.

        He talks and walks a bit funny. He can’t use a hammer. He seems nervous and needs a lot of guards all the time.

        • Karen 5.1.1.1

          Agreed. Key is not at all macho.

          Misogynist, certainly.

          • Anne 5.1.1.1.1

            We know that but Waitakere Man doesn’t. They see him as being ‘one of them’ and yes, he’s a misogynist too.

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1.1.1

              PS. CV you can probably advise me. My arrow is out of control. What do I do to remedy…?

              You mean your mouse arrow? PC or laptop?

              • Anne

                PC.

                Have a new mouse and keyboard. Computer checked over by expert – nothing wrong. I guess it’s mouse arrow.

                Oooh I think I’ve fixed it. Placed mouse remote bit ( I dunno what these things are called) in a different slot on PC. Fingers crossed. 🙂

        • greywarshark 5.1.1.2

          LOL
          But rock stars are always a bit different, they cultivate a persona that sells don’cha know.

        • Hanswurst 5.1.1.3

          Leaving aside the question of whether being a macho Kiwi male is a desirable trait, I would agree. Key strikes me as exactly the sort of person who probably got teased and harassed at school. Like Paula Bennett rounding on her former fellow beneficiaries, however, Key now enjoys playing the bullies who once tormented him, big-noting as a BSD in parliament and on TV, and watching as various blogger thugs and media stooges inflict wedgies on his opponents on behalf of his limp self, all the while whispering in his ear that it is actually he who is doing it.

          Of course, when he sniffs a power imbalance so obvious that even he himself feels secure, he can’t resist having a tug on the ponytail to boost his watery, weakling pride.

          • greywarshark 5.1.1.3.1

            I’d love to see Hanswurst how you would explain the Toronto ex-mayor Rob Ford. His brother stood in his place but was beaten by John Tory 40 to 34% approx (enough of Johns FGS). And poor John Tory has to deal with the ex-Mayor as a Councillor.

            Rob Ford is a great bullying bloke parodying being a politician, playing the clown – a large number of people like him for good entertainment. He comes from a self-made Family which wants to be of note. There is talk of the Ford Family which sounds rather like the Bush Family.

            If googling – toronto mayor rob ford brings up his bio patch which gives details about him and his family which have interesting details.
            edited

        • whateva next? 5.1.1.4

          oh but the charisma oozes out of him apparently, and the protection squad are there to make him look cool?

      • Dan1 5.1.2

        There is no way Key is macho! Populist maybe. Even effeminate at times. Triple handshakes. Name dropper. Not the characteristics of macho.

        • Anne 5.1.2.1

          No he’s not but he pretends to be. That’s why I put ‘macho’ in inverted commas @ 5.1

  6. Ovid 6

    I don’t foresee much movement over the next 4-6 weeks. The World Cup will dominate the news and if the ABs win, Key will stick to them like a limpet. Parades, reception at Parliament. Loads of photo ops. A knighthood for McCaw at new year’s.

    • maui 6.1

      Agree, but don’t forget the flag thingy, that’s in November I think? That will get people fired up on how we can make the country whole again by choosing a symbol. Whatever happens with Serco and state housing between now and the end of the year appears to be irrelevant with voters. So the only thing I can see changing opinions at this point is a noticeable shift in the economy.

  7. Textor /Crosby manages the National Party and they are good very good,
    Photo oportunities an getting Key seen inthe right place at the right time.
    Typical T/C is the photo over the recent Herald gallop poll showing Jacinda Ardern instead of Andrew Little. That how they operate and I must admitt I do not know how to beat them .Remember they win elections for the Political Right in all countries,

    • Wayne 7.1

      The Pink Postman,

      Do you really think Crosby Textor can instruct The Herald to run a photo of Jacinda Ardern, rather than Andrew Little?

      Surely it is because Jacinda has been working very hard on elevating her profile. In case you have missed it, there has been a plethora of articles about her in all sorts of publications, some serious political, some very clearly not, but all intended to convey her “all good” kiwi style complete with carefully chosen photos.

      These things do not happen by accident. It is the result of a well crafted campaign that is apparently achieving the intended goal. It is how modern politics is done.

      • Anne 7.1.1

        It is how modern politics is done.

        Agreed, but what a shame don’t you think? Wouldn’t it be better if voters looked for talent, leadership skills, managerial skills, integrity, honesty and a genuine desire to help ordinary countrymen/women? Wouldn’t it be better if governments based their policies and decisions on common sense and the common good rather than blind ideology?

        No disrespect to Jacinda Ardern who I am sure has most of these qualities but what an indictment on NZ society that so many base their judgement on superficial looks and shallow ‘magazine’ PR stories.

        And talking of ideology, don’t lets forget where the current excessively neo-liberal market place ideology is presently taking us… gradually down the economic plug hole and ultimately into a major recession/depression.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1

          Jacinda is a run of the mill MP. Parliamentary staffer to Labour MP; been one of the 2% for a long time now, Grant faction and seen successive Labour defeats while in caucus.

          • Wayne 7.1.1.1.1

            Anne,

            Such a campaign can only ever succeed if the person has the fundamental capability. It has always been evident, pretty much from the day she arrived in Parliament as a MP, that Jacinda Ardern has that capability. The campaign has the effect of lifting her above her competitors.

            And she clearly has wide appeal. While Mr Lowe might have expressed himself in a rather old fashioned way, he clearly has no problem in visualizing her as the PM. He knows that the role of PM is tough and demanding; he has seen enough of various PM’s close up to understand that. And Jacinda knows what the effect of her carefully chosen photos will be.

            Colonial Viper, you misunderstand the importance of such a background, especially with the professionalisation of politics since the 1980’s. Many modern leaders have had such a background. PM Cameron for one.

            Many MP’s across the whole Parliament have such a background. On the National side alone Nikki Kaye, Chris Bishop, and Todd Barclay immediately come to mind. These are people who have chosen politics as their calling from an early age. And in the future it is likely that this group will disproportionately produce the top leadership of politics.

            • vto 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Wayne, do the protections in the TPP offered to foreign investors around future profits (i.e. they can sue the government if laws are changed which reduce their future profits) also apply to domestic investors?

              I have asked this question several times now.

              • Wayne

                vto,

                My PhD was on state responsibility, with specific reference to the Iran United States Claims Tribunal which arose from the Iranian revolution of 1979.

                In essence it is a rule of international law that when a state undertakes an expropriating act against locally owned and foreign owned businesses, it is required to compensate the foreign owners. The local owners are stuck with their local courts for their remedy.

                This rule of international law has been in place for at least two centuries. In more modern times, it meant international tribunals were established to deal with various claims by international oil companies when their assets were expropriated by middle east revolutionary regimes.

                The foreign investor rules in modern trade agreements stem from that history. They do not protect against actions which generally reduce profits such as general increased taxes or improved regulatory rules on the environment or heath and safety. Instead they are designed to protect against measures which have an expropriating effect, for which there is a reasonably high threshold.

                For instance lets say a Norwegian company had an oil licence for 30 years and they had invested $3 billion in a production platform. A Green government then reduced the term of the licence to 15 years or introduced a 90% tax on oil producers that would definitely trigger state responsibility. Even if there was not an existing tribunal, NZ would be under huge pressure to accept one. In fact there probably would be ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) arbitration built into the investment agreements, so there would in fact be an international forum. The investment provisions of the various FTA’s essentially formalise the ICC processes.

                • vto

                  Thanks Wayne for your answer, appreciated.

                  Unfortunately though, the reasoning and result carry little weight out here in the world of commerce and we will now be making our own business foreign-based to ensure we enjoy the greater privileges that foreigners get over locals under the TPP.

                  The history may well be justified in those times but of course it is a globalised world now and those historic justifications no longer apply in a globalised world….

                  One further thing Wayne – your government owes an obligation to the people of New Zealand to ensure the locals understand that foreigners will enjoy greater privileges over them under the TPP.

                  … now I wander off into the day with a downcast slow shake of the head going on ….

                • vto

                  perhaps on some detail wayne ….. using your example of a $3billion investment in oil platform.

                  How is different if a local firm had invested the $3billion, rather than a Norwegian firm? For the investors that is, forget the history for a minute…

            • Anne 7.1.1.1.1.2

              And here endeth the lesson on Jacinda Ardern. I think I might know Jacinda better than you do Wayne. 🙂 And yes, she is a talented and intelligent person.

              Not sure though what all that had to do with the general thrust of my comment which was around the superficial and shallow way modern politics is done. Unless this Jacinda business is all part of the latest DP attempt to try and knock Andrew Little off his leadership perch.

              Jesus, it gets more pathetic by the day.

  8. infused 8

    Polls actually don’t matter until a year or so out from an election.

    However, I do find it odd that Labour has not really got a rise from anything they have done over the last few months. National really have been hopeless and it hasn’t seemed to affect them at all.

    I would be sounding the panic alarm at Labour HQ right about now.

    It’s clear to me that the issue isn’t National and the ‘spin doctors’, it’s that Labour is hopeless and has a real perception issue.

    • les 8.1

      if you really believe this…’Polls actually don’t matter until a year or so out from an election.’…why panic?

      • infused 8.1.1

        Because National have fucked up so badly, Labour should have got a decent rise.

        I don’t need to spell this out to you.

    • save NZ 8.2

      @ infused. Your right, there is a perception problem with Labour but it is not a perception. It is their actual policies.

      The only way to beat the manufacture and dirty politics is for opposition parties to band together and support each other despite their differences and to actually attack National together.

      How about a group walk out of parliament over the TPPA for example. Practically ALL the public left and right are against it.

      The last minute amendments to bills like Health and Safety bill. Do something ACTIVE.

      etc etc

      Action is needed by politicians.

    • James 8.3

      The second to last Roy Morgan poll had people saying that National would be panicking.

      Turns out they didnt really need to.

    • ropata 8.4

      People still hate Labour more than they despise National.

      A distrust of politicians is a healthy thing, but this Key cult is sick and needs to die.

  9. Peter 9

    I am sorry but why would I vote Labour

    They wont to raise the retirement age.
    They wont to bring in a capitol gains tax, I know they said not on the family home but give it a few years.
    They sorta support the TPPA.
    They will do nothing about the employment contracts act.
    They will do nothing about the asset sales.
    They will do nothing about the bringing the troops home.
    What would they do about state housing being sold of.
    Vote Labour yea right.

    • les 9.1

      are you psychic?p.s learn the difference between ‘wants’ and…needs!

      • save NZ 9.1.1

        Agree with Peter.

        Labour seems to be leading the Austerity controls in NZ without looking at other options.

        Take your medicine NZ – we don’t trust each other in Labour – but you can trust us to make everything more austere for you – for our idea, of the good of the country!

        It will cost you and you don’t benefit.

        We don’t have any other ideas of growing the economy apart from keeping the status quo with extra taxes.

        We are too gutless and or clueless to tackle China or the US or the banks.

        Are you in?

    • Ron 9.2

      I can think of several reasons but the most obvious reason for voting Labour is to remove National from office. Do we really need any other reason?

      I am sorry but why would I vote Labour

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1

        I can think of several reasons but the most obvious reason for voting Labour is to remove National from office. Do we really need any other reason?

        I think you’ll find that for the majority of voters, that is not a convincing argument.

      • leftie 9.2.2

        Because Ron, Labour govern this country better and by far, are way better economic managers than National are.

  10. James 10

    I didnt know that it was official official labour policy to build the city rail loop IMMEDIATELY.

    A snip at a snip at 2 billion dollars.

    of course Aucklaner’s will have to pay 1 billion of that. Given all the rates increases already under (Labour) Brown – you can imagine that this is a sure fire vote winner.

    Of course – like a lot of their policies – there is no costings on this to back it up anyway.

    And you wonder why you arnt winning the auckland vote.

  11. Bearded Git 11

    Total Vote for ACT and United Future (0.2%) equals that of the Legalise Cannabis Party (0.2%).

    United Future poll result 0.0% ….same as last time.

    • James 11.1

      Just as well they are so successful continuing to win a local seat.

      Else they would be the way of Mana.

      • save NZ 11.1.1

        And perhaps Labour can learn from the ACT/National co operation instead of kicking down the left. That was very helpful to National that Mana never got a seat in parliament but has not really been good for Labour’s reputation – more like reinforcing Nat – Lite reputation.

  12. swordfish 12

    In terms of the Preferred PM ratings, be aware that – in stark contrast to the Colmar Brunton, Reid Research and Fairfax Ipsos polls – …….the Herald-DigiPoll (for reasons known only to themselves) exclude the always hefty number of Don’t Knows/None-of-the-Aboves.

    All of which has the effect of greatly exaggerating PM/Party Leader support.

    Hence, Key on 64% here and just 40% and 38% respectively in the latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls.

    • RedBaronCV 12.1

      Hi SF
      I was under the impression that the Digi poll , if taken on the same day as a Roy Morgan would tend to throw a higher figure to the Right. Is this so and if so can we guess how much
      Thankee

      • swordfish 12.1.1

        Not easy to say. The Herald-DigiPolls are far less frequent than the Roy Morgans,the two pollsters rarely poll at precisely the same time and, of course, statistical noise.

        Looking at the Herald-DigiPoll over the last 2 years, there’s no real evidence of a strongly disproportionate number of right-leaning outliers (compared to other polls taken around the same time). That prize goes very much to Fairfax-Ipsos.

        Having said that, over the long term, it does look like the DigiPoll has a slight tendency to favour the Right in comparison to other pollsters, with the obvious exception of Ipsos.

        Or to put it another way, sometimes it’s very much in tune with other polls conducted around the same time, sometimes it’s a little off to the Right, but very rarely is it a Left-leaning outlier.

        And you can see this in comparison with Roy Morgans taken at roughly (never quite precisely) the same period. The Herald-DigiPoll tends, as you’ve suggested, to record higher support levels for the Right, but it’s not a hard-and-fast rule:


        Poll........................NAT....GOVT...GOVT+CONS

        2014

        HD 6-16march..........51..........52..........53
        RM 3-16march............46..........49..........50

        RM 2-15june..............50..........51.........53
        HD 6-16june..............50.........52.........54
        RM 16-29june............48..........51........52

        RM 30june-13july.......51.........53........54
        HD 10-17jjuly..............55..........55......57
        RM 14-27july.............46..........49........50

        RM 4-17aug...............48.........50.........51
        HD 14-20aug.............50........52........54

        HD 21-27aug.............51........52........56
        RM18-31aug..............45.........47.......50
        HD 28aug-3sep.........50.......51.......55

        HD 4-10sep............49......50.......53
        RM 1-14sep............47......49......53
        HD 11-17sep.........48.......50........53

        RM 24nov-7dec....46.....50......52
        HD 8-21dec.............50.....52.....55

        2015

        RM 6-19apr...........46.....48.......49
        HD 17-26apr..........51.....53.....54
        RM 4-17may.........54.....56.....57

        RM 3-16aug..........51.....53.....53
        HD 14-24aug..........51....52.....53

        • RedBaronCV 12.1.1.1

          Thank you so much SF – I see what you mean – that if you drew a line between the Roy Morgans, digi poll it would be slightly above or on the line. I was struck by the responses of the younger age groups. Now if we can just get the older women voting further to the left as hubby dies off…

          • swordfish 12.1.1.1.1

            Actually, I’m going to amend my emphasis on the Herald-DigiPoll having just a slight tendency to the Right in comparison with the Roy Morgan.

            That emphasis was the result of averaging out all the percentage point differences of the last couple of years. But, in fact, it’s far more useful and revealing to sort the polls into separate categories:

            9 occasions over last 2 years when HD and RM polls have partially overlapped/been conducted at roughly the same time….

            On 2 of those occasions = essentially the same results

            On another 2 occasions = HD recorded slightly higher Nat and Right Bloc percentages (+2 – +3)

            On the remaining 5 occasions = HD recorded significantly higher Nat-Right percentages (+4 – +7)

  13. pipalbany 13

    ” trading votes around the political left won’t win anything,”

    This is the takeaway phrase for me, and letting other parties take soundbites or parliament questions is bad form. Take the bull by the horns, stop being dicks about race-based throw-away comments that just boomerang, and go hard on the economy, housing and perhaps the troughing of the current right wing administrations.

    Just a thought.

  14. leftie 14

    John Key lost support in his own electorate in 2014.
    <a href="http://http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/mpp/electorates/data/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Helensville_Electoral_Profile/helensville-electoral-profile

    How does Roy Morgan randomly select mobile phone numbers? Telcos do not give out that kind of information. How many people do not use landlines anymore? Basic questions but important ones.

    Apart from the fact, that opinion polls can and are easily manipulated, last year, 3 News did an article on how changes in technology are making opinion polls unreliable.

    “Cellphones make political polling tricky ”
    July 2014

    “The rise of the mobile phone is casting a shadow over the reliability of traditional telephone polling. There is no directory of mobile phone numbers, and more and more young people are opting to go without a landline.”

    Cellphones make political polling tricky

    <a href="http://http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/cellphones-make-political-polling-tricky-2014070616#axzz3j3Le5kJX

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