How Covid 19 appears to be playing out

Written By: - Date published: 10:51 am, June 4th, 2020 - 108 comments
Categories: australian politics, Donald Trump, Europe, International, jacinda ardern, labour, national, todd muller, uk politics, uncategorized - Tags: ,

I wrote this post two months ago about how I thought Covid 19 would play out in Aotearoa.

It was written at the time that infections had peaked to just under 90 per day.  I added a postscript celebrating that there were only 63 new infections reported that day.

I also said this:

This is just the start of something that will take a long time to resolve, New Zealand is in as good a place as anywhere in the world to deal with this, but things are not going back to normal in four weeks time.  Further isolation periods are almost inevitable, the economy is going to take a hell of a battering and foreign travel is going to be a distant fond memory for quite a while.

Thankfully my comment about further isolation periods being almost inevitable may have been too pessimistic.  We are all quietly celebrating having had eleven days of no new infections, and to the poor person still suffering I and most of the rest of the country will have a quiet beer to celebrate your return to good health if there are no new infections reported in the meantime.

It appears that, for now, we may have dodged a rather dangerous bullet.

But just as the first infection made its way into the country and spread the chances of this occurring in the future are still ominous.

The boarder will have to be closed for some time.  Various sectors in the economy are being decimated.

This has been a frustrating time for the opposition.  They have had to acknowledge that Jacinda Ardern and the Government have performed a remarkable job.  They are reduced to now saying that we should be at level one as soon as possible.

The Government’s desire to hold the line and follow the professional advice is cautious.  But I do not see any significant public opinion in favour of opposing it.  The overwhelming response that I get when I talk to people is one of gratitude for the job that Ardern and the Government have done.  And the polling clearly shows who the public think should be in Government leading the country.

This should be contrasted with the United Kingdom which shows the results of not handling the pandemic by some pretty basic rules.

And America is falling apart and the President has resorted to tear gassing protesters to clear space in front of a church so he could have this rather apocalyptic photograph with a bible taken.

New Zealand can cautiously head towards level one and then deal with the economic repercussions and the new world order that is emerging from the pandemic.  And enjoy a level of freedom that other nations would be jealous of.

The UK and the US are at risk of a further surge.  Australia has not been able to stamp out the spread of the virus.  And claims that Australia’s economy is doing better than New Zealand’s appear to be misplaced.  New Zealand is doing pretty well and criticism that it has been too staunch is nit picking.

The problem for National and in particular for Todd Muller is that damned MAGA hat is a reminder of people of an obsequious deference to Trump.  And locals prefer Ardern’s compassionate science driven approach to Trump’s gung ho science denying populist approach.

108 comments on “How Covid 19 appears to be playing out ”

  1. I have already been shopping to get stuff for the garden and have been out to dinner and lunch. Quite frankly if we were like America or the UK I would have been too scared of catching covid. Of course our economy is going to be better.

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      I was never scared of catching covid. In fact part of me wanted to so that I would have some form of immunity in the future.

      My fear was passing it on to someone who would suffer or have serious complications.

      • lprent 1.1.1

        …so that I would have some form of immunity in the future.

        So you're an unthinking idiot. Show me some proof that there is any immunity that lasts more than 6 months – because that is our current level on knowledge about immunity. Show me anything that indicates that people who didn't have a severe response have any immune responses at all.

        These are all things that we'd find out in the future – hopefully by watching someone else with a stupid dithering government (eg Trump or Johnson or Putin) providing the evidence.

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          "some form"…. not total immunity. That comment was deliberate.

          But thanks for your personal abuse. It always a pleasure being bullied online

        • froggleblocks 1.1.1.2

          Yeah, lets attack someone who was just trying to find the silver lining in a bad situation – if COVID had roiled far and wide through NZ, then hoping to get infected with a low dose for future potential immunity is not a stupid thing to hope for.

          • I Feel Love 1.1.1.2.1

            Like in Sweden? Britain? USA? There is no immunity, no use "hoping" for it, let's wait for science for certainty, not faith.

            • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.2.1.1

              A fairly innocuous statement that has caused some concern.

              I think it almost certain that humans have "some form" of immunity. Covid-19 has not been around long enough to know how long that immunity lasts. To date there is not one reported case of anyone being reinfected so that gives us some clue. It is possible that covid-19 will be like the six other human coronaviruses. Four produce the symptoms of the common cold and immunity is short-lived. Generally people can be reinfected with the cold within one year.

              On that basis I am more scared of transmitting the disease to someone vulnerable than I am of getting it myself as I am statistically likely to recover within a week, and likely to have immunity for at least a year.

              I am not sure what Sweden has to do with that?

              • lprent

                There is an inherent presumption in the Swedish model that the immunity will last a while, and that the transmission between people is fast. This meant that they could isolate vulnerable populations like the >60yo (and that didn’t work) while the rest of the population picked up immunities.

                However the time that the immunity lasts is not known (but likely to be short based on most of the human corona viruses).

                The infection rate is slow. They were planning on having something like a 40% infected rate in about 2-3 months. After 3 months it looks like it is more like 10-15% (at the most) in Stockholm and way less everywhere else.

                • NZJester

                  The other thing that makes relying on herd immunity from this extremely bad is that those who caught it and do make it through having the virus might not be out of the wood health wise. There are a lot of long term heath issues it can cause for people. They could survive the virus but die a few years or decades later from health complications it can leave them with. It is known to damage some vital internal organs turning formally healthy people into those who need long term medical care or organ transplants to stay alive.

              • Incognito

                There are some suggestions of the possibility of cross-reactivity with common cold coronaviruses possibly providing pre-existing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in the population.

                https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

                You’ll have to be an expert to appreciate the limitations of this linked study hence my italics 😉

          • woodart 1.1.1.2.2

            hopeing for immunity to a new virus that is still mutating… yes, that is a stupid thing to hope for.

            • froggleblocks 1.1.1.2.2.1

              All viruses mutate.

              • lprent

                IOt is more the rate at which they ‘mutate’.

                But in reality mostly what viruses get is transcription errors. There are surprising differences in the levels that different virus types effectively get suicided by poor transcription. Influenza changes like wildfire.

                What has been interesting about covid-19 and the corona viruses in general is the extent to which they have built in checking. Can’t dig out the reference(s) right now as google appears to be buried under antiviral research for covid-19 for almost every phrase I tried..

                But it makes sense for a virus with 32 thousand base pairs like covid-19 to be a bit more conservative in its ‘mutations’ than one with 1.7 thousand base pairs like influenza. However what you have to worry about is how many more tricks a virus could have stored up with more than 16x as much ‘code’ already in it. It probably already has considerably more pre-programmed strategies.

            • Tricledrown 1.1.1.2.2.2

              Kim Hill on one of her Saturday shows interviewed a virus expert who said this type of virus has a low mutation rate.

      • mpledger 1.1.2

        Sweden has only got about 7.3% of people with antibodies and they really need it to be up around 60-70% to get herd immunity which was what they were aiming for. No other country is known to be above 5%.

        It's still unclear but getting herd immunity doesn't look too likely in the near future for any country and that would be the only point of purposefully catching it – although the risk is low for young people there is still a risk of death. And we don't know the long term effects – some of the healthy people who survive a bad bout seem to come away with organ damage – but we only have collected about 6-8 months of good data so who knows what else will turn up.

        • Tabletennis 1.1.2.1

          No Sweden was not aiming for herd immunity – their strategy was:

          1) flattening the curve (like NZ but then (MOH?) changed it half way to eliminating the virus), with the aim not to overburden the hospitals, and

          2) protecting the most vulnerable. As it was already know that the elderly were. Herd immunity was going to be a merely a side effect of this strategy.

          Immunity has shown to last, for now, between 1 and 3 months.

          • Incognito 1.1.2.1.1

            Immunity has shown to last, for now, between 1 and 3 months.

            Where did you get that from?

    • lprent 1.2

      We've done incredibly well. I moved back to work yesterday from working at home since March 17th

      What gets me is that some of the idiots – like Muller – simply don't appear to understand exactly how lucky we are that they are not in control. Even at this point it isn't a slam-dunk because this virus is so unlike any other one that we're made pandemic precautions about.

      As far as I can see (and I've been keeping myself well-informed), it is going to be an endemic disease. Most likely there will be no herd immunity – even after they get vaccines in place.

      This is one of those diseases and disease families that will keep arising in populations and will permanently change our human behaviour – just like the dangers of cholera caused the development of clean water and sewerage systems. It will change business patterns as well.

      Meanwhile idiots wanting to run back to the past (like the whole of the National party as far as I can tell) are endangering the rest of us. Too stupid to understand the danger of experimenting with our whole population at stake.

      Personally, I'd prefer to be sure that we have longer rather than shorter to test different gathering sizes. For instance if we start showing community spread after the bars reopened and now the protests earlier in the week.

      Besides after we get to level one, we just all know that the unthinking whiners will continue to unreasonably try to endanger us all by wanting to open up the borders too early. I think that we should just teach these children to learn to be patient.

  2. Enough is Enough 2

    Provided National does not win and reopen the "borders" prematurely, I think there is next to no chance we will, or can, return to the restrictions that the government called "level 4".

    We are now ready and prepared for for new infections in a way we weren't in early March. If one new case is identified, the MoH will contact trace the shit out of it and isolate anyone who has been within sneezing distance of that person. We can test at a scale that can identify the spread and quarantine people at a local level rather than the whole country.

    I think the biggest issue now is that big what if? We need to be planning for the possibility that no vaccine is developed in the medium term . What is our future if this coronavirus is like AIDs or any other coronavirus'?

    • James Thrace 2.1

      I agree

      I keep shaking my head at the "when a vaccine is developed" crowd.

      NO.

      New Zealand needs to make preparation on the basis there will not be a vaccine and learn how to manage that efficiently. If there is a vaccine, that will be a bonus. It should certainly not be the sole point around which all planning is done.

      We also know that Covid19 disproportionately affects the 60+ and underlying chronic health conditions. If NZ wants to keep paying billions in National Superannuation then we need a conversation about how we manage the risk to 60+ people if there is no vaccine.

      Of course it does seem one cannot raise the salient point about the impacts on the 60+ group and how we mitigate that if we open our borders and run the risk of Covid coming back into NZ without being accused of advocating genocide. It's the new "cheap working holiday visa migrants artificially suppress the median wage" argument. Everyone knows it's true, but nobody wants a conversation about it.

      • JanM 2.1.1

        'If NZ wants to keep paying billions in National Superannuation then we need a conversation about how we manage the risk to 60+ people if there is no vaccine.'

        What exactly are you trying to say here? It may be the way you've expressed yourself, but surely you're not advocating covid 19 as a useful way of reducing the cost of National Superannuation, are you?

        • James Thrace 2.1.1.1

          Case in point.

          • JanM 2.1.1.1.1

            Do I take that as a 'yes' then? Goodness!

            • James Thrace 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Perhaps you should read the last paragraph in my first reply.

              Thanks for proving my point. Please come again.

              • JanM

                Mmm – persistent obtuseness and continuing ad hominem responses lead me to think it hardly matters anyway

                • James Thrace

                  You do know that ad hominem responses are about attacking a person? I'm simply stating that you are proving my point that one cannot discuss the risk of covid19 coming into the country and how to mitigate that for the most affected 60+ crowd without being accused of advocating for genocide.

                  That's the first thing you accused me of when I made no such statement.

                  So again, you proved my point.

                  • JanM

                    'You do know that ad hominem responses are about attacking a person?' I do, of course, and that is how I read it – an implication that I am too thick to understand you.

                    I made no accusation, I asked a question because I didn't think that 'advocating for genocide' was what you had in mind, but I sought clarification because of the way you had expressed yourself.

                    The answer, however, didn't answer my question, did it!

                    And I do think the conversation is worth having, by the way – you just need to choose your words carefully and state your ideas clearly. Introducing irrelevancies like the cost of National Superannuation deflects from the argument and confuses the reader.

              • Gabby

                Dashed unfair that a chap can't advocate genocide without being accused of advocating genocide what what?

                • greywarshark

                  It's interesting that many commenters here can't discuss some matters dispassionately without imprinting their own ideas on someone else's comment and then claiming that was the intended thought. James didn't say anything about genocide.

                  James was pondering on National Superannuation and 60+ people which was immediately pounced on by the worthy opinionated.

                  James made a mistake by pre-empting the type of replies and then making a triumphant comment when they played out as expected. You have to wait James for it to happen, and then say sadly that it is unfortunate that such matters are shut down from discussion as they are of importance for informed people to consider, as without thought and discussion there may be no reasonable and acceptable path for older citizens followed in policy.

                  • Sacha

                    What relevance did you make of "If NZ wants to keep paying billions in National Superannuation.."?

                  • Gabby

                    So rude of people to take sly insinuations at face value, isn't it.

      • mac1 2.1.2

        "I keep shaking my head at the "when a vaccine is developed" crowd."

        And if one was developed another crowd would refuse to be vaccinated.

        Another good Ice Age will sort us out……. let the glaciers loose, roll out the ice sheets, freeze the oceans.

        • Sacha 2.1.2.1

          Still got some plagues and locusts to go through before we get to that.

          • mac1 2.1.2.1.1

            I'll go daub my door post. Well known remedy- never fails. Thank God for living in Hizzone. Plenty of lambs.

    • infused 2.2

      Even if National won, I don't think anyone is going to lift the border restrictions for the next 2 years.

      It's going to be a very slow process, likely city by city.

    • francesca 2.3

      Treatment will be the thing

      And quite possibly our bodies will recognise this new virus as we become exposed and not go into immune system overdrive

      We've got a lot to learn

      This is incredible…how respected medical journals and researchers were taken in by a scamming little US firm

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

    • Tricledrown 2.4

      If so it may not be a vaccine but a drug which can lower the damage the virus inflicts.
      Aids doesn’t have a vaccine yet now it is treated

  3. James Thrace 3

    I am horrified at the constant drum beating of travel being opened with Australia first. Australia has never had NZ's best interests at heart. The talk of testing travellers in Australia before they fly to NZ is ridiculous given that people could be carrying Covid, and not have symptoms, and become symptomatic in NZ – where there won't be testing!

    It's ridiculous.

    Given how incredibly efficient at being inefficient a lot of NZ government agencies are (and I put Customs right up there – i.e. when 4 midnight flights arrive at the same time in Wellington and there're only 2 customs staff on – incredibly inefficient) it's dangerous in the extreme to put NZ's near total elimination of Covid at risk.

    Instead, NZ would ideally shore up it's inefficient travel processes by implementing a proper safeguarding measure and trialling it out with countries where there is a smaller risk of Covid making it back through our borders.

    I keep advocating on Twitter for NZ to have a travel bubble with Rarotonga first, and sort out our own internal inefficiencies before we open up with Australia. At least with Rarotonga, we know there's a much smaller risk of importing Covid, and we can streamline the process a lot better. Once we have security in our processes and we can adequately manage travellers coming back from Rarotonga with sound procedures, then we can look further afield to Australia. Obviously we wouldn't have a bubble with Rarotonga until NZ has 28 days of 0 new infections. We certainly do not want to risk their health. Once we have the process sorted with Rarotonga, then we can expand it to Samoa and Tonga and Tahiti etc. Perhaps even Taiwan.

    Opening up a bubble with Australia first is just asking for trouble especially now that Australia is seeing a increase in new infections again. That's far too risky for NZ to manage efficiently or adequately. I highly doubt that the NZ public will appreciate being put at risk.

    The alternative is that we just wait for Australia to have 28 days of 0 new infections and do a bubble then.

    Another alternative is that we simply block off Queenstown and make that "Qurantown" (yes, I'm aware there's logistical issues to work through) if the sole single purpose of getting Australians into NZ is to "save the ski season!"

    • weka 3.1

      If Queenstown had any sense it would start transitioning to a post-carbon economy, which by necessity means not more mass tourism. Imagine if we took the risk with covid, and put lots of resources into kickstarting the old tourism and then in the winter of 2022, when Queenstown is just starting to recover, they have a bad snow year. And then another one in 2023. We know this is going to happen eventually, may we well bite the bullet now.

      Queenstown is still run by the old boys though, can't see much changing in their thinking until they've been slapped down a number of times.

      • James Thrace 3.1.1

        Indeed.

        NZ has been given a massive opportunity to re-tool because of Covid and put renewed focus into the things that matter. E.g. I think one way to improve our exporting situation is to invest in places like Coastwood Furniture who make damned good wooden furniture, and export that overseas. Well made wooden furniture that can support the weight of a 100kg male, unlike the cheap and nasty overseas made wooden furniture, will stand the test of time.

        Coming from a Covid free country also means that NZ manufacturers can add a substantial premium onto it.

        But like you say, Weka, the old boys network is firmly embedded to the "old way" and can't see the wood for the trees. There's massive opportunity for Queenstown to centre itself in another format that isn't tourism. Whether that be as a premium location for film crews (i.e. Top of the Lake made full use of Queenstown's location) could be ideal rather than as a mass tourism destination whose sole focus is to extract money, rather than add value.

        • greywarshark 3.1.1.1

          Good comments James T with bite in them, one might lose a bit of flesh but worth having.

        • Sacha 3.1.1.2

          Coming from a Covid free country also means that NZ manufacturers can add a substantial premium onto it.

          I can picture this applying to services involving contact with people or for food products maybe. Furniture, not so much.

          • greywarshark 3.1.1.2.1

            Furniture maybe. We have built ourselves as a destination on high sounding quality, maybe we can use that quality feeling to sell other stuff, it gives us a profile anyway. And we have been told that the virus stays alive on surfaces so the handlers could be more confident of our product being safe.

            Feelings and fears come into the matter when people are uncertain.

        • lprent 3.1.1.3

          Coming from a Covid free country also means that NZ manufacturers can add a substantial premium onto it.

          That seems unlikely.

          Covid-19 doesn't last on surfaces for any length of time, usually in hours, and under some quite specific circumstances (plastic or metal surfaces) possibly for days. It doesn't survive for very long

          It survives in bodies and in water based fluids of the right pH. Virus sheaths are usually quite fragile if they are respiratory or blood diseases.

          I can't see any particular advantages for exports carried in boats or even planes.

          I can see it being an issue if we export people – but only a downside.

          • greywarshark 3.1.1.3.1

            Thanks for updating my outdated memory of virus info. All the same I think that our good coronavirus status would be good publicity. As I said about feelings and fears – people are uncertain and our record is something that would gain positive attention.

            Did you read the Guardian link that Francesca put up at 2.3? There are a lot of uncertainties floating about.

            Interesting that the Lancet and another publication have been publishing articles that used so called statistics from on-line without checking the provenance of the firm and its staff. The scientific journals have put up a note of caution about the items after The Guardian showed them results from research revealing not hard to get history of fraud and fantasy!

      • Graeme 3.1.2

        Funny thing about Queenstown is that today it feels exactly the same as it did in February. Traffic is just as manic with traffic jams in Frankton morning and evening.

        But there’s no tourists.

        • weka 3.1.2.1

          why is that? Short week? People letting out their stir crazy?

          • Graeme 3.1.2.1.1

            The economy is back to full steam, traffic volumes are normal and most people are going about their business.

            It shows what the real drivers of the Queenstown economy are, and international / mass tourism is down the list a bit. Our figures in the gallery for Queen’s Birthday were indistinguishable from other years, and I’d say there were more people around this year.

            • weka 3.1.2.1.1.1

              that's good news. Were they Otago/Southland folk, or from further afield?

              Is there going to be a normalish ski season (assuming there is snow)?

              • Graeme

                From all over the country, and with a good attitude. Only struck one walking meltdown, thought there would be more of that. Weather helped, it was stunning.

                Ski season is all go, Coronet and Cardrona intend a full season, Remarks may be weekend only, and Treble maybe as well, but if there’s enough punters they’ll both be open. Snow is coming along ok, early days yet.

            • aj 3.1.2.1.1.2

              It shows what the real drivers of the Queenstown economy are…

              What are they?

              • Sacha

                Flipping houses. 🙂

                • aj

                  lol! until Covid arrived, true. After that, not so much. Third place not much, I think.

                • Graeme

                  Yep, and building houses to house people to build more houses.

                  All good until the music stops, which it may, or may not have. We’ll see there, but the vultures have been sorely disappointed so far.

    • Tricledrown 3.2

      Australia has a much higher community transmission of Covid.

  4. weka 4

    I think NZ has a reprieve. Which is a window of opportunity to start working seriously on resiliency. People who think this can be put aside until the economy is rebuilt are playing a very dangerous game.

    The thing that interests me right now is what will happen to NZ if the US and UK economies collapse? Or if the US goes full fascist? We might think we are safe in our little corner of the world, and I can't think of many better places to be living right now, but we are still tied into the global economic system and the global ecological systems, and that is where our vulnerability is.

    Beyond that, NZ should be leading on resiliency transition and offering working models to the world. We got this reprieve, but it's not just about us.

  5. peterh 5

    In Victoria May, meatworks 111 cases, mcdonalds, closed 2 shops 400 staff are isolated had several cases. recent 2 schools closed I kindergarten 1 aged care Victoria health say we are finding more because we are testing more (community transmission] there is no way are they ready for a bubble, Cris Hipkins in parliament, brought up Aussie still having outbreaks WHY is this not being reported

    • AB 5.1

      Australia's 'long tail' of new daily cases is a noticeable contrast to ours. Australia's numbers seemed strange months ago – total cases and total deaths about the same as ours per capita, but hospitalisation rates were 5 times as high. That pointed at some under-counting of total cases and greater risk of a second wave once restrictions ease.

      It's one thing for NZ to have a leaky border when we are at Level 4. At L4, imported cases can be contract-traced and then transmission lines cut off. It's a totally different thing when we are at Level 1 and behaving more or less normally – just one imported case could snowball fast. Before going to Level 1 we need to have more confidence that the borders won't leak – and a bubble with Australia is still a significant risk.

    • lprent 5.2

      Aussie still having outbreaks WHY is this not being reported

      It is being reported. At least I’m reading it. But I read ABC daily. I think that I’ve seen everything you mention over the last 4 weeks. Dig back into https://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/coronavirus/

      The most recent were some returning aussies in quarantine. And another case from the meatworks.

      I’m pretty sure that I have seen that in NZ news as well.

  6. National are desperate to make an impression of some kind, as taking out Simon took months of strategic planning. Many who wanted the change are going "Now what?"

    There have been nasty messages on twitter which show the Dirty Tricks Brigade is at work again. I will not repeat their lies.

    Be aware this election will be full of innuendo but Todd Muller will appear to not be involved, however Hooten and co are in the background doing their thing.

    I don't think NZ is as gullible as they were at the beginning of John Key's time.

    The same voices have started up ahead of the election. Bryce Edwards with his "Jacinda the Saint is mean" message, Goldsmith with his Jacinda Ardern is keeping us locked down when we should be at Level 1 message, and there are only 3 competent ministers in this Government pushed by bloggers.

    We are so fortunate here, but there is a huge effort by National to blame business losses on Labour for doing the Lock Down.

    Altogether we need to give money to our chosen parties and help with hoardings and phoning and leaflet drops. We need to counter the lies and speak up.

    Todd is just repeating the same questions and statements over and over embedding them. We need to persistently answer briefly to the point in the same way.
    We need to stop them pushing the envelope to get a second wave, because then they can say Jacinda got her “Captain’s Call” wrong.

    They show care for money over people in this, and Winstone is attention seeking for votes as well. Dangerous behaviour.

    • Andre 7.1

      UK has just overtaken Spain in the deaths per million race at 585 behind Belgium at 822. But it's hardly fair, Belgium classifies every death that might be vaguely COVID related as a COVID death compared to the known undercount in most other places.

      • Bearded Git 7.1.1

        Yes, and when Spain had 27,000 Covid19 deaths El Pais estimated the true level was 43,000 when comparing with normal average death rates.

        But then I remember The Times recently reported a similar study that showed UK death rates were being similarly understated.

        • Incognito 7.1.1.1

          Better to compare excess mortality rate by country. Belgium was bad but not the worst in Europe; Spain and the UK (England) looked worse AFAIK.

    • lprent 7.2

      …Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has admitted that they screwed up.

      Only partially admitted. Basically he was treating a novel disease like it was a known quantity like the influenza with a more pronounced impact on hospital resources. The problem was that it wasn’t.

      Very few people get a dose of the flu, and then wander around not knowing that they have it and are spreading it for days before symptoms appear. A high proportion doesn’t even get significiant symptoms. Also many of the effects of the disease weren’t and probably still aren’t known.

    • observer 7.3

      I'm not aware of any apologies from those in NZ who weeks ago insisted Sweden had got it right and we had got it wrong. Anyone else?

      For example,

      Mike Hosking and Simon Thornley.

      • In Vino 7.3.1

        Well, in today's Herald Hosking is screaming that Australia got it right, not us. Cue a probable increase in Australian infection rates… The guy may well be a jinx.

        • greywarshark 7.3.1.1

          Surely even Hosking's huge mouth and powerful delivery couldn't send a projectile of Covid-19 viruses across the Tasman? Turn him to a westerly direction now please (or north-west possibly – GPS might help).

      • Treetop 7.3.2

        AJ TV put it this way today about Sweden, 4,500 deaths from Covid-19. 4,000 of them in over age 70 and 50% of the deaths in elderly care homes.

        There is everything wrong about how Sweden managed the pandemic. NZ has got it right so far and the government will be blamed if a second wave.

        Caution is required in opening up the border and quarantine for 14 days. One case is coming through per week with the current people returning to NZ.

        • Treetop 7.3.2.1

          AJ TV put it this way today about Sweden, 4,500 deaths from Covid-19. 4,000 of them in over age 70 and 50% of the deaths in elderly care homes.

          There is everything wrong about how Sweden managed the pandemic. NZ has got it right so far and the government will be blamed if a second wave.

          Caution is required in opening up the border and quarantine for 14 days. One case is coming through per week with the current people returning to NZ.

        • Treetop 7.3.2.2

          The first paragraph is in relation to Sweden.

        • Treetop 7.3.2.3

          The first paragraph relates to Sweden.

          • Treetop 7.3.2.3.1

            Sorry about duplication. My URL on cell is not working and a lag. First comment would not correct and correction would not correct.

  7. Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity is reporting evidence coming out of Lombardy of Covid-19 not being as easily transmissible as time goes on, pointing to the unstable nature of the virus (and incidentally pointing a finger at it being a man-made virus) because of some implants in the original genome.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

    We may, if what they are saying, is correct, not need a vaccine!

    • greywarshark 8.1

      Dear me, more on the theoretical Chinese connection to the genesis of our favourite virus of the year/decade?

      Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss | Sir Richard Dearlove tells Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast that new scientific report suggests key elements of the virus were 'inserted'

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

      • greywarshark 8.1.1

        Edit
        I wonder if Dearlove's mouth is one of UKs weapons. He was head of MI6 1999-2004. The UK was in on the infamous Iraq attack in 2003.*

        But Sir Richard, 75, pointed to a scientific paper published this week by a Norwegian-British research team who claim to have discovered clues within Covid-19's genetic sequence suggesting key elements were "inserted" and may not have evolved naturally…

        Sir Richard, who was the head of MI6 between 1999 and 2004, cited startling new peer-reviewed research produced by Professor Angus Dalgleish, of St George's Hospital at the University of London, and the Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen. Further links inside the item. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/
        .

        * Part of: Iraq War Start date: 20 March 2003 Combatants: United States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq

        The invasion phase began on 19 March 2003 (air) and 20 March 2003 (ground) and lasted just over one month, including 26 days of major combat operations, in which a combined force of troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Poland invaded Iraq.

        And we did something intelligent here –
        The New Zealand government opposed and officially condemned the 2003 Invasion of Iraq.

        Military history of New Zealand – Wikipedia

      • Incognito 8.1.2

        AFAIK, no such paper has been published yet. Premature elucidation.

        • greywarshark 8.1.2.1

          Incognito

          What will you say next? I shall watch with pregnant anticipation.

          • Incognito 8.1.2.1.1

            Until we have evidence that can be verified, we’ll have a case of immaculate inconception AKA ejaculo in nihilo.

            Lancet and NEJM have recently retracted highly influential papers on Trump’s miracle drug.

      • Gareth 8.1.3

        He needs to show the evidence.. like this:
        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

        In the conclusion of that Nature paper: "the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus "

  8. greywarshark 9

    Yanis Varoufakis has been looking into a Crystal Ball. What will happen after Covid-19. He speaks to the Cambridge Union on what is, will happen in in this decade 2020-30.

    https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2020/05/24/a-chronicle-of-our-bleak-twenties-cambridge-union-online/

    • Tiger Mountain 9.1

      Yanis job, like other public intellectuals, is sharing his thoughts and predictions with people. Personally I have to try hard to listen to him after he dropped his bundle facing down the EU after achieving political office in Greece.

      That is the thing with some academics, professionals and intellectuals–when the heat goes on they vacillate. Brilliant ideas are certainly needed, but so is some action, particularly in NZ as we wind down the Alert Levels.

      Agree with Micky that we are stuck with C19 and maybe its bastard offspring for some time, and Weka’s call for resilience in light of our country’s reprieve. Now is the time to build health system capacity and staffing, starting with disbanding DHBs and centralising. The scrap between DHBs on different Covid tracking systems is as good an example as any on why this should happen.

      Labour and Green need to get reelected by whatever means necessary, and then set to it–cleaning out the public sector of recalcitrant neo liberal executives, and removing structural elements such as the State Sector Act. Re-nationalise the refinery consortium at Marsden Pt and return power generation and supply to full public ownership…that should get things rolling.

  9. Ed1 10

    I like the graph, and have probably seen where it came from before, but could the url (and any options selected to give that image) be put here again?

    • mpledger 11.1

      I like this graph because it's per capita.

      • greywarshark 11.1.1

        Very easy to understand – very clear and evidence based! Thanks to both of you. It's helpful with all this talk about bubbling with Australia. Is Australia as good as its painted? When paint bubbles then it has been wrongly applied!

        • Alice Tectonite 11.1.1.1

          Plenty of variation within Australia:

          COVID-19: AUS states/territories + NZ

          Cases per million

          • VIC … 253.1
          • NT … 118.1
          • ACT … 249.9
          • QLD … 207.2
          • TAS … 425.8
          • WA … 225.0
          • NSW … 382.6
          • SA … 250.5
          • NZ … 233.9
          • AUS … 284.3

          Deaths per million

          • VIC … 2.9
          • NT … 0.0
          • ACT … 7.0
          • QLD … 1.2
          • TAS … 24.3
          • WA … 3.4
          • NSW … 5.9
          • SA … 2.3
          • NZ … 4.5
          • AUS … 4.0

          Population estimate Sep 2019

          • VIC … 6,629,900
          • NT … 245,600
          • ACT … 428,100
          • QLD … 5,115,500
          • TAS … 535,500
          • WA … 2,630,600
          • NSW … 8,118,000
          • SA … 1,756,500
          • NZ … 4,934,800
          • AUS … 25,464,100

          Data sources
          COVID-19 totals to 4/6/20 – AUS DoH, NZ MoH; Population – AUS Bureau of Statistics, Stats NZ.

      • Alice Tectonite 11.1.2

        Thanks for posting that, always like a nice set of faceted plots. Good for an eyeball comparison.

        • greywarshark 11.1.2.1

          Tasmania high. I think I read that they were going to 'man it out' down there. Looks as if they did try that, didn't work for Sweden.

          If we had agreement with one or a few states for a bubble, what is to stop people from other states going to the 'bubble' state airport for their flights? Anybody who thought they were well and were sick of being constrained under lockdown could be tempted to do so.

          As for having checks at airports to protect us forget it.
          Aussie workers bailed up our PM when Ansett collapsed and showed no respect for us.

          • greywarshark 11.1.2.1.1

            Here is a bit of background on NZ-OZ history that not everyone would remember or have known.

            Many Australians seemed to have absorbed a lot of anti-kiwi propaganda over the years. They still probably remember the Ansett debacle which wiped out the cosy pension schemes they had established with that airline, for which loss we were blamed fiercely too, for those who don't remember.

            When sheep were king, NZ shearers used to go over there for the season and compete with Aussies for the jobs. We developed wide tooth shearing tools while the Oz shearers stayed with the traditional narrow ones. Ours meant that each sweep of the shears took off more wool, and so were faster. That produced animosity against NZ in the outback.

            Further back Aussies did have a valid complaint with the Mr Asia drug criminals involving NZrs 1978-79. http://www.sydneycrimemuseum.com/crime-stories/mr-asia/

            Here is a link about it written by Pat Booth, RIP, one of our top journalists who had a contract put on him because of his sleuthing. http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/manukau-courier/opinion/2163928/Mr-Asia-the-real-inside-story

            So we aren't squeaky clean. And Australian politicians have memorised bad behaviour, and forgotten the hundreds of thousands of good Kiwis. And so they run a tough line on us. I'm for visas between us and them. It would make sense because one of the reasons they gave for withdrawing government benefits for NZs with opportunities to become Australian citizens in about 2001 was that too many foreigners who got into NZ could just pass through to Oz on our no-visa scheme.

            So bring in visas again and then press them for a return to our previous status. Perhaps the NZ Government has been more at fault than Oz. We could cure some of that negativity with visas, remembering that stats have shown most Aussie tourists are short-term visitors, and the tourists are often just visiting and staying with family.

          • Alice Tectonite 11.1.2.1.2

            … going to 'man it out' down there

            Don't think so, they had one really bad cluster in the northwest centred around a hospital. 200+ cases of the 228 total, 12 of the 13 deaths. Various allegations about poor PPE supply etc. At least one of the deaths in that cluster was a passenger on the Ruby COVID Princess. Tassie also has the oldest population of any of the states/territories, which may be a factor. No new cases since 15 June.

  10. TJ 12

    As per the graph above… it's remarkable, yes? A little too remarkable. Any other subject and that great big dive would have people looking for the corrupted data. To say that "Ardern's responsive etc etc saved us, hooray hooray compassionate etc etc" is just plain dangerous.

    We got off lightly owing to some weakness of the virus, and the way we socialise. It wasn't just the way we responded – despite the way we responded in some cases. No one is forced to ride the subway with a million other people everyday, or buses, or is shoulder to shoulder every morning in the street. The elderly and sick are corralled away in a corner for family visits. The well-off don't mix with the poor, and vice versa, not freely. Race divides our activities. Rural vs Urban divides us – so we had unofficial road blocks leading into small towns.

    The "luxury" of having these divisions made it "easy" to respond the way we did. The instances of stupidity, in any other part of the World, would have levelled the local population. Ardern's unscientific and politically expedient approach in Level 3/4 transitions, bowing to anyone's opinion, qualified or not if they were loud enough, but now doggedly digging in her heels in level 2, for those last few days and hours because it's suddenly so important, when the threat is very low, that has to be acknowledged. One extra week of level four would've changed nothing to the future of commerce, and at the time, might have saved many lives. But let's forget that. That didn't happen because, I dunno, make up your own delusion.

    Our politics demands we claim it was all our doing, because we're in control of our lives, and since we believe that, right wing politics has us by the psychological balls again. If we aren't in control of everything, and it turns out our strain wasn't suited to our geographical location or climate, or some local biological or dietary variation, much like other organisms grow and behave differently in distant parts of the world, then we need to accept it before we make a stupid mistake, including thinking we can carry on as mini-America.

    As it stands, a further outbreak seems unlikely, if the borders stay closed, if the schedule for Levels of restriction are not overruled on a whim, and if the rules are not relaxed or overlooked for that special film crew, management consultant, or team of vineyard labourers. A worse case scenario could happen under Labour, but seems unlikely. It has a much higher chance of happening under National. I may not vote at all, the choices are so poor, but my guess is that the borders would be most secure under The Greens. Before you vote National, be sure that if they open the borders and this virus gets a hold again, the government strategy will be different, either just like the USA, or draconian restrictions, and then there is going to be total economic collapse in NZ.

    The problem now is nothing we can control: International trade and supply lines slowing down, so common goods reduced or stopped for a while. This provides us with massive opportunities for change, but also a period of serious conflict between the outlook, attitudes and preferences of the Old World, and what we have to do to remain a coherent nation.

    • lprent 12.1

      We got off lightly owing to some weakness of the virus, and the way we socialise.

      Ardern’s unscientific and politically expedient approach in Level 3/4 transitions,

      What that really shows is that you simply don’t understand much basic science. That you’re an ignorant idiot rattling off a pile of idiotic bullshit completely lacking any specific details.

      In short – you are are waffle merchant with about as much technical expertise as a chicken. The moral equivalent of a hand-waver trying to dance angels on the head of pin. Making vague assertions as if having a moron speak was a way of creating fact like zero point energy, when really you’re just a wanker spraying your seed and thinking that it is something unique.

      Would you care to comment on why that is not the case. Personally I love to rip holes into fatuous trolls whose ego exceeds their intelligence and knowledge.

      By the way, please read the site policy and try not to whine….

  11. TJ 13

    I just checked the rules and yes, I broke the rules. Please remove my post. My opinion is not scientific, though genuinely held. I will not post here again.

    • Incognito 13.1

      I think you missed the point. There’s a difference between opinion and assertion. A widely held opinion, which is an assertion per se, is still not a fact. There’s nothing wrong with having an opinion, as long as you don’t masquerade it has an assertion. If you make assertions, you need to (be able to) back them up with evidence. Instead of putting up a decent argument, preferably with some supportive specific details, you decide to run away in a pseudo-offended manner. If you have read the Policy and rules, you will know that this site encourages robust debate AKA put up or shut up.

      • francesca 13.1.1

        Surely robust debate can have rigour without the absolute torrents of unhinged offensive abuse.

        It is surely possible to have a debate without slinging foul insults .Too much ego and bullying

        • Incognito 13.1.1.1

          If you’re referring to the comment by Lprent, that wasn’t really part of a debate or discussion, which was the point he was making, but it was intended as a learning moment for those who don’t engage in robust debate. It has taken me a while to look behind the barrage of bad language and see its purpose and effect. It is not my style but I have to admit that it is quite effective in finding and hitting its aim. I may add that I think the world is too PC and that people have become lazy and don’t engage their brains enough. But that’s just a personal note 😉

          • francesca 13.1.1.1.1

            I thought the point of the venue is debate and discussion , the personal invective is of a level to shut discussion down and totally disproportionate to the original post

            PC has got zero to do with it in my humble opinion. PC is about a hypersensitivity/avoidance towards offending those perceived as having a disability or disadvantage

            I get you fellows see yourselves as "not suffering fools gladly" and after all this is your platform so you get to pass judgement on others' intellect and tear them down

            I guess it's where we've got to in these times of not so civil discourse

            • Incognito 13.1.1.1.1.1

              Ok, let me try again.

              There was no debate or discussion to begin with. The commenter appeared to be new here and made the rookie mistake (!) of contributing nothing but ‘white noise’, to put it diplomatically. They were invited, or challenged or provoked, if you like, to put up a decent argument. It was explained to them how robust debate works, here and everywhere else, for that matter. It was a test.

              They failed the test.

              No harm was done except perhaps a slightly dented ego for a short time. No discussion was shut down. We will have avoided wasting time on noise. Most likely, we will have saved on Moderator time too. In Election Year, these considerations are more important.

              Your judgement of the Moderators is off and you got the wrong end of the stick, IMO. This is not my platform in any way, shape, or form. I volunteer considerable amounts of my time and energy here on this free platform (without ads!) just like the others do. The Standard Trust (https://thestandard.org.nz/about/#who_are_you) owns the site.

              Most of what we do here is educating commenters on their behaviour, not tearing down their content or the commenters themselves. In fact, we moderate against commenters attacking and shooting the messenger. IMHO, this is anything but shutting down discussion; it is enabling and encouraging robust debate.

              Robust debate and civil discourse are two different approaches that generally have the same purpose or intent, at least. Style and tone differ, of course. Indeed, robust debate doesn’t suit everyone.

              Lastly, I added the sentence about PC and intellectual laziness as a personal note; I said so. It was not the main gist and still isn’t.

              • francesca

                " you are aresic waffle merchant"

                "you’re an ignorant idiot "

                "you’re just a wanker spraying your seed"

                Call that robust debate?

                Thats just some form of emotional incontinence, and anyone else would have been censured

                • Incognito

                  No, of course I don’t call that robust debate.

                  It is not intended to be robust debate.

                  It is aimed at challenging commenters to change their behaviour.

                  It is aimed at weeding out commenters who don’t, won’t, and never will contribute to robust debate.

                  Its purpose is to be instructional and commenters with weak egos and emotional incontinence usually cannot handle being held a mirror up to them.

                  You don’t have to like it, but it is effective, sometimes perhaps too effective …

    • lprent 13.2

      You didn't 'break the rules'. You just got a response of opinion tailored at the same fact-free and background-free style of opinion as you used – but a little enhanced. However rather than being directed at anonymous target, mine was directed at you personally.

      If you want to express an opinion, it pays to say why you hold that opinion rather than just making a set of simpleminded assertions that offer nothing to any debate. That offers others a chance to understand where you are coming from and to explain why they think you are incorrect – usually with informative links.

      Instead your comment sounded like a troll trying to start a flame war with malice aforethought for the sheer hell of getting responses. So I gave you a response that was a reflection on how your comment appeared to me… Welcome to robust debate.

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    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    5 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    6 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    6 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Government moves to quickly ratify the NZ-EU FTA
    "The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
    Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
    The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
    Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister’s Ramadan message
    Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness.  It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister appoints new NZTA Chair
    Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
    Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology.  It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Progress continues apace on water storage
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