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Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour, polls - Tags: , , , , ,

Last night’s 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll confirmed Labour’s momentum and, crucially, showed a fall for National. Jacinda Ardern and Bill English are tied as preferred PM. It’s anyone’s election.

What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than than racist dog whistles.

Jacinda Ardern has tapped in to the underlying mood for change, and given it a voice.

The Greens will bounce back. Their message is simply too important to be ignored.

87 comments on “Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall”

  1. Gabby 1

    She seems to be steering clear of nat rad at the mo. Maybe justifiably wary of Sniggering Guyon, maybe she’s said ‘sure, but after Bingles, not before Jawsie.’

  2. Heather Grimwood 2

    Yes, the Greens will definitely bounce back…the passion of their commitment to urgencies for ecosystem and poverty can only prosper. and of course reinforce desire of all who care /grieve over these topics. Media hype must not be allowed to exaggerate import of their (Greens) recent poll figures.

    • dukeofurl 2.1

      So , you were saying the same thing when Greens were 15% ?
      ‘Media hype must not be allowed to exaggerate import of their (Greens) recent poll figures.”
      The reality is they have lost a lot of supporters, maybe not below 5%, but that could be around that number.
      BTW the media arent saying it, its a reputable poll thats saying it.

      • DSpare 2.1.1

        dou
        That 15% was indeed treated with some scepticism at the time, in retrospect it was probably a rogue with the base support being closer to 12%. That said, there certainly has been a drop in people committed to supporting the GP in the polling period (12-16 August, immediately after Turei standing down as leader before the relaunch had time to be factored). The margin of error for this result would put the GP current support as likely between 2-6%, but many may have been adopting a wait and see approach to the relaunch (responding as undecided and replacing of of the undecideds who committed to Ardern’s Labour).

        About the only good thing from this poll for the Greens is that the trend line has to improve! As falling from 15 to 13 to 8 to 4% ratings in the space of a month would otherwise have them in negative numbers by election day. I fully expect this to be spun as a victory for the relaunch and Shaw.

        • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1

          No it wasnt a rogue.
          Reid Research 13.5, Newshub 13, One News 15. Those are all within the margin of error for those numbers

          Please dont just make stuff up (‘base support being closer to 12%’) when the average of those numbers is close to 14%

          • Dspare 2.1.1.1.1

            dou
            This graphical summary is a good depiction of how the polls indicated party preferences before Ardern took over Labour:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017#/media/File:NZ_opinion_polls_2014-2017-majorparties.png

            It is much the same as the one in the Original Post, but unlike that one; doesn’t yet include the last weeks polls (and does state a mean polling of 12+/-1% for the GP).

            Your sample is highly selective, and doesn’t control for differences in polling techniques. A better baseline selection for GP support would be to start back when Ardern was named deputy, till she became leader of Labour (March to August). This gives us: Roy Morgan; 13.5, 14.0, 14.0, 13.0 & 14.5 (13.8% mean), Newshub Reid Research; 13, 12.5 & 11.2 (12.2%) , One News Colmar Brunton; 15, 11, 9 & 11 (11.5%). This gives a combined mean of 12.6%; which might be slightly higher than the 12% average since last election (though still within the +/-1% range). But the 15% result is certainly; an outlier, if not definitely a rogue.

      • Heather Grimwood 2.1.2

        to dof at 2.1: The media are repeating ad nauseam the results since first poll …. a very small sample. (I feel guilt in partaking of/furthering the conversation.)

    • popexplosion 2.2

      Polling is irrelevant as they don’t reflect split voting. I.e ACT voter says they vote ACT but vote NAT on the list. Greens who vote Green on the list can vote Lab in the electorate. So a true poll, credible and professional, would have the ability to ask for split voting intention. Duh, otherwise it’s a right-wing poll as it collect minor NAT parties, ACT, UF, MP, yet ignores LAB voters who party vote Green or NF.

      • popexplosion 2.2.1

        Greens are denied acces to power by the establishment just look what biased media has done to their pols, had this Ben any other party… Collins, Bridges, high profile ministers who get into bother and everyone tipstoes around them.

  3. Bob 3

    “Jacinda Ardern has tapped in to the underlying mood for change”
    No, she has simply given Labour long overdue media coverage (by making herself available like John Key did) and has done so with policy announcements rather than complaining about what the other guys are doing constantly.

  4. Bearded Git 4

    It is excellent that, despite all of this volatility, TOP has no momentum at all; stuck at 2%. Vote for Gareth and waste your vote-maybe they should change their leader…….

  5. One Two 5

    Preferred Prime Minister..

    Options.

    A fiddling ex PM, or a lightweight careerist…

    Claytons choice for the personality cultists..

    • Kevin 5.1

      In 2008 you had the choice of a lightweight noob.

      And guess how the country voted.

    • red-blooded 5.2

      Ardern is no lightweight, One Two.

      • One Two 5.2.1

        Adern is a complete lightweight who could potentially become Prime Minister..

        None of ‘them’ are fit to run a country, which is why the country in controlled from offshore by the ‘money masters’..

        Adern is a shiney new wheel, the same way Key was back in 2008.

        Lightweights…all of them…unnecessary, accept to minds which are confined by orthodoxy!

        • simbit 5.2.1.1

          How fucken hard is it to run an isolated, well-received country of under 5 million? Don’t diddle your reimbursement, don’t fiddle with any young kids, don’t get drunk in public, get some good advisers around you. Jeez wayne….

  6. Carolyn_nth 6

    Not a lot being said about the shift in un-decided voters between the last 2 polls – from 20% – 13%.

    So, for poll watchers, wouldn’t that mean, not so much a GP collapse in numbers of votes for them, but that there proportion of votes dropped as Labour picked up a lot of undecideds?

    • ScottGN 6.1

      It still amounts to the same thing C_n. If the Greens are to keep their heads above water they need to be taking some of those undecided voters too.

      • Carolyn_nth 6.1.1

        that’s true. And, more importantly pick up some who have given up voting. It’s not the same as the narrative about already committed voters deserting the GP.

        There is surely likely to be some bounce impact from recent positive media coverage of Ardern, at least in the short term.

        And the trouble with such hasty polls, is they are used by many mainstream journalists to promote their narrative, resulting in the publication of the polls further impacting on public opinion.

        A very good reason for restricting publication of polling during an election period.

        • dukeofurl 6.1.1.1

          Do you realise what you are saying ?

          Just because you would rather remain clueless about what the public is saying defies sanity. If it continued to say Greens 15% of course you would be saying ‘love it’

          • marty mars 6.1.1.1.1

            hang on, you are the clueless one

            “And the trouble with such hasty polls, is they are used by many mainstream journalists to promote their narrative, resulting in the publication of the polls further impacting on public opinion.”

            did you read that? Please reread it because it answers your inane comment.

            • dukeofurl 6.1.1.1.1.1

              That section is too silly for words.
              Hasty ? The last one was three weeks ago

              ‘promote their narrative’ ? Thats their job description ‘ commentators who comment’

              They are only saying what the polls results said- Greens out of parliament-

              They could change to 5.5% closer to the election date , will that make you feel better. In reality you dont want polls at all which show Greens voters have moved to other parties.

              • only the very silly or smarmy think the polls are only a record of events – they are used to push the narrative (this is the narrative they want to push because it fits their perception of things). They are used as evidence of things – when really they show the opposite or are unrelated to that which they are evidence for.

                This is well known 101 stuff – I’m surprised you don’t know or understand this dou.

                You seem wedded to the polls – that is silly – do you look at the map, tracing the route and then go, “well that was a nice tramp” of course not – same thing.

                • Dspare

                  marty mars
                  You are correct about polls being used to; “push the narrative”. The problem is that if polls consistently show the GP below 5% they will lose further support because no one wants to waste their vote. That said, a bounce in the polls can be used by Shaw to sell the narrative of the relaunch being sucessful, and it is hard to see how the next poll can be worse (particularly as it is likely to be the Roy Morgan which historically overrates the the Green vote, compared to be CB which underrates it – except for that one 15% outlier).

    • swordfish 6.2

      Not a lot being said about the shift in un-decided voters between the last 2 polls – from 20% – 13%. So, for poll watchers, wouldn’t that mean, not so much a GP collapse in numbers of votes for them, but that there proportion of votes dropped as Labour picked up a lot of undecideds? …

      … It’s not the same as the narrative about already committed voters deserting the GP.

      You may be indulging in a touch of wishful thinking here

      The Greens have plummeted from 15% down to 4% – trust me – that sort of catastrophic loss aint down to falling Undecideds

      (Undecideds incidentally fell from 16% to 9% – the rest were those who Refused to answer)

  7. Sable 7

    I would take these polls with a grain of salt. I would guess the Greens support is substantially better than this and polls only prove that small samples deliver “small opinions”.

    I’m not a Greens supporter but I do wish them well and hope for a change from last grim 9+ years.

    That said we need an unbiased MSM and in my opinion that’s really not the case in NZ anymore.

    • JanM 7.1

      Never was

    • Phil 7.2

      polls only prove that small samples deliver “small opinions”

      Next time you’re getting a blood test from a doctor, ask them to take it all, rather than just one vial. Just to be sure.

      • DoublePlusGood 7.2.1

        Blood is uniform; people are not. You need a better metaphor.

      • Sable 7.2.2

        Yeah blood is measurable definitive polls as the most recent article on this site proves are anything but……

  8. The decrypter 8

    Still to flock over to the jacindaroller are all the browbeaten “twobob tories” women. Once in the secluded ballet box these unfortunates will seek out their saviour. All Aboard ladies.

  9. Enough is Enough 9

    This increases the chance of a Labour NZ First government which isn’t really the change of government I was looking for.

    Granted – better than what we have but not type of government that in my view will deliver the massive reforms we so desperately need

  10. CLEANGREEN 10

    I am a solid convert to Jacinda Ardern at 72yrs old!!!!!!!!!

    I see another strong leader like Helen Clark here, and I was taken by Helen also, so Jacinda could be our saviour along with Winston who was there the last time Labour booted out the nasty Nat’s.

    My families vote is now pretty well cast on a Labour/NZ First win now.

    Which is about it was when we came back home from Canada in 1999 and joined the Greens to get rid of the Nat’s then.

    Green party was then run by a very intelligent group of Sue Kedgley, Sue Bradford, Rod Donald/ Jeannette Fitzsimmons, and they actually was the remaining support party that helped eject the toxic Nat’s in 1999.

    Pretty much a repeat Election result is now happening again now thankfully.

  11. swordfish 11

    Historically, Nat leaders have a tendency to poll higher (& hold a more commanding lead) in the Colmar Brunton Preferred PMs vis-à-vis Reid Research – so – with it all tied up at 30 / 30 in this latest CB – it would nae entirely surprise me if the next RR has Ardern out in front (quite apart from any further momentum)

    • DSpare 11.1

      swordfish

      Do you have any idea when the next Roy Morgan poll results are due out? They have been usually good at getting them out monthly (compared to Colmar Brunton’s haphazard schedule – I guess as 1News commissions them), maybe they are too busy with Australian politics at the moment to bother with NZ.

      • swordfish 11.1.1

        By Sunday at latest, I suspect (though don’t entirely rule out later today – RM have a bit of a penchant for releasing on a Friday)

  12. lurgee 12

    I’m confused. Are polls reliable this week, or unreliable? They seem to be telling us something we want to hear and something we don’t want to hear. I don’t know whether to attack them or not.

    • marty mars 12.1

      the polls are for people that like polls – they bear some resemblance to reality as a map does to the territory – hmmm terror tory – I like that – might try to mapp that one for wayne on one of his comments lol

      • dukeofurl 12.1.1

        What an idiot you are. They-opinion polls- are used for all sorts of things.
        Yes its a poll 5 weeks from the voting date, but for small parties they are fairly accurate

        • marty mars 12.1.1.1

          oh dear you are really struggling aren’t you lol – have a lie down buster before your fu fu valve bursts again

        • left_forward 12.1.1.2

          Just discuss the issue man – all your name calling distracts from everything else you say.

          • lurgee 12.1.1.2.1

            I’m not sure there really was an issue, other than my wry poke at the way some people are completely inconsistent. Polls I like = valid and robust, polls I don’t like = vile heinous lie-mongering.

            Applies to a lot more than polls, of course.

          • simbit 12.1.1.2.2

            I’m embarrassed no ones called me a name. Anally. Root. The pollsters. And Jim was a Catholic. Hmmm, are you still a virgin if…

    • Tracey 12.2

      You probably need another poll to tell you what to think about polls

  13. james 13

    Its all very interesting.

    I think that any green comeback will be at the cost of (primary) labour.

    Having said that – I think they will only come back a little. I think they will get over 5% – but not by a huge amount. 7-8% feels about right.

    Jacinda – Hard to argue that she isn’t going anything other than a bloody good job at the moment.

    • lurgee 13.1

      It’s a bit of an indictment of our political maturity that replacing Little with Ardern leads to a 13% surge. It isn’t like she’s unleashed oddles of awesome policy or promised everyone a Unicorn.

  14. McFlock 14

    The thought occurs that the dirty politics hounds will next be set on Labour in the full frenzy that attacked the Greens. But Labour probably doesn’t have any obvious nat-bait skeletons in the closet (and they sure as fuck won’t volunteer them now).

    So, with the heat elsewhere the greens will recover – maybe not to 15%, but 8-10% feels reasonable.

    Some of that might be at the expense of Labour, but I suspect the nats will be pushing shit up hill unless they can find some genuine dirt. And the effort they waste on Labour is effort the nats aren’t putting into new policies or campaigning ideas.

    Anyone know if the nats are ripping off the Beatles this time?

    edit: but the hounds won’t attack NZ1, because both sides will probably need Winston…

    • Bearded Git 14.1

      Agreed McFlock…and 40+8= a Lab/Gr government without the need for NZF. This could easily happen.

      • lurgee 14.1.1

        Disagree. Where do the votes come from?

        If Labour is to get to 40% and the Greens recover to 8%, that’s another 7-8% needed. Are they really going to steal most of NZ1st’s votes? Or will a chunk of National’s vote suddenly realise that all this time they supported social democracy and / or the environment.

        I’d like it to happen, but I can’t see how it happens.

        But then, I though Ardern might give Labour a boost of 4 or 5%, so what do I know?

    • marty mars 14.2

      yes the gnats want to drop ardern and labour – they could go, “oh we’re the underdogs now” and try and energise their staid fanbase. I can’t see them attacking Ardern – and I bet that is really irking them. So the Greens will recover a bit. Winnie had better drop the toddbomb soon – those texts need to come out and see the light of day.

  15. I don’t think the Greens have suffered terminal damage. There is too much anger on the left spectrum that I think they will be back, but in reduced size. They might get 10 M.P.’s and shed the difference to Labour. Any loss of M.P.’s from National will probably drift towards N.Z. First.

    Labour can get bigger still, but that will require some bold policy releases, such as – and not necessarily suggesting that these policies happen, but as an indicator of the level needed – renationalizing the electricity sector or electrifying the main trunk line as a matter of priority.

    • Tracey 15.1

      Dont be too sure. English can walk on a beach with his wife and make an awful pizza but he has been English for too long. For years he has been the man shutting the wallet shut but suddenly his ego is involved and it is a monster lolly scramble

      • lurgee 15.1.1

        I don’t think we should under estimate the appeal of English’s dull reliability. When Kelvin Davis compared him to a rock my immediate rection was that rocks have many admirable qualities – enduring, weighty, reliable – and these are also qualities people associate with English. He might not be charismatic, but I think people also quite like that. He comes across dull and dependable. It will take a lot to shake that impression – and a lot of the stuff that political obsessives like us are All Fired Up about are not going to register with the electorate at large.

        They say generals are always ready to fight the last war – and I wonder if Labour have finally found, in Ardern, a candidate that might have been useful against John Key. But Bill English presents a different problem, and I’m not sure, yet, if she will prevail against him.

        • Tracey 15.1.1.1

          That is how it was spun. I understood he said he had tthe personality of a rock

          • lurgee 15.1.1.1.1

            Didn’t need spinning. Like I said, it was my gut reaction when I heard it.

            They’ll be calling him Basalt Bill next.

          • In Vino 15.1.1.1.2

            But it reminds me of 1984 when debating face to face, stolid Muldoon was gracefully outmanoeuvred by eloquent Lange. Jacinda is alive and creative. I think Bill has trouble in both those aspects.

            • lurgee 15.1.1.1.2.1

              Muldoon was clearly bonkers. Basalt Bill is too rock like and impervious to be properly bonkers. Even his religious tendencies are probably a bit dull.

        • WILD KATIPO 15.1.1.2

          lurgee

          … ” He comes across dull and dependable ” …

          Yep ,… just like a cardigan wearing bureaucrat.

          Except that in his case hes not the dull dependable bureaucrat that carry’s on , quietly keeping the wheels turning in the background , – but an out of control hyper one that has aspirations of Lords and Ladies and serfs living in mud huts and tending to the gentry’s every need…

          • lurgee 15.1.1.2.1

            I’m not convinced your analysis is entirely rational, fact based or likely to be shared by the population at large.

            I think the left are so used to being brutalised by John Key’s slick emptiness that we’re looking at his polar opposite and completely underestimating him.

            I have a horrible suspicion that a lot of people will opt for Boring Bill over Jazzy Jacinda this time, deciding she’s too much of a wild card at this time.

            If that happens, may I add, I hope Labour are sensible and realise she’s already done enough to guarantee she retains the leadership until next time, when she can have a proper go at it.

  16. Tracey 16

    So… when people said ” …but there is no alternative to National” they realky meant a leader I like? Just observing tgat it is not about poolicy, not really

  17. Tracey 17

    Didnt NZF halve its support in the previous poll but no headlibes of NZF imploding or ravaged or collapsing

  18. Michael 18

    Labour appears to have taken votes off the Greens, and perhaps NZ First, but there’s no real evidence that Nats are switching over to it. I think the Nats’ base is stronger, in the sense that they are reliable voters, whereas people prepared to switch to Labour from the Greens are more likely not to vote at all (as are disillusioned Labour supporters who don’t like NZ First’s xenophobia). If Labour wants to form a popular, and hence legitimate, government, it needs to come out with a credible, progressive alternative to neoliberalism. So far in this campaign, it hasn’t. As a result people, like me, who loathe neoliberalism, have no reason to vote for Labour under Ardern.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 18.1

      I too want a complete renunciation of neoliberalism – and this isn’t on offer this election. But less neoliberalism – which the Greens and Labour do offer to a degree, in contrast to NAct, is still better than more neoliberalism. So I hope people get out and vote for the lesser evil (you know, you get less evil that way).

      • WILD KATIPO 18.1.1

        Excellent. And that’s the reality. We have to work with what we’ve got and try and improve on it. Its all got to start somewhere.

    • ScottGN 18.2

      Poll last night showed National dropping 3% which presumably went to the Labour Party.

      • Dspare 18.2.1

        ScottGN
        That 3% could have gone to NZF, and more NZF voters could have gone to Labour (possible via undecideds). It is hard to say for sure from blunt averages.

        • ScottGN 18.2.1.1

          That is absolutely a possibility. However I think it’s more likely soft National urban voters are starting to move to Labour.

      • lurgee 18.2.2

        I’d tend to view the ‘drop’ as variation around the true figure.

        National have been as high as 49% in May and as low as 44% (oh, to be as low as 44%!!) which might suggest the figure is somewhere in between – maybe a touch closer to the 44% end, as intervening CB polls were 47%, and the overall trend seems to be a bit down.

        But National on 45 or 46% could be very tricky for Labour.

  19. greywarshark 19

    Tracy Watkins sounding definite.
    The Green Party has plummeted from 15 to four percent in the latest political poll after the rise of Labour’s Jacinda Ardern and the resignation of Greens co-leader Metiria Turei….

    It’s not just National that’s hurting from the Ardern effect either – the Greens have been crushed, now sitting at 4 per cent. They could be wiped out of Parliament.
    I bet she didn’t foresee the Greens at 15% and why she should be willing the out of Parliament on the basis that there is no volatility before elections, I don’t know.

    Recap: Labour surge, Greens slump in latest poll
    Last updated 20:22, August 17 2017

    Bill English is shown in link having a meal with three undecided voters. They’re obviously not needy Labour voters, he is talking and they are sitting listening with a small tablefull of toothsome dishes in front of each. Hungry Labour voters would be tucking in unceremoniously. Yeah, yeah, right on Mr English. Good one. Have the staff got doggie bags? You could get a lot of good votes that way.

    20 minutes plus
    Chat with Cheesy

  20. Zeroque 20

    I find it difficult to see how a Winston and Labour coalition could work, would be great if it could. Just seems problematic, progressive versus conservative.

    • Naw…. recall the Helen Clark era?… Peters was a Foreign Minister, – and a bloody good one at that.

      • lurgee 20.1.1

        Wasn’t he investigated for massive sleaze? Owen Glenn, who he just happened to back as Honorary Consul? Donations from the Vela family while he was in charge of racing? I can’t even remember how that one turned out.

        Anyone coalescing with Winston should be very careful. He’s entirely highly toxic. You will recall, I’m sure, that after his stint as Foreign Minister Labour lost power and NZ 1st lost their representation in parliament.

        • Tracey 20.1.1.1

          So are Collins and Bennett. They just have better cover and voters who dislike law breaking, self interest and sleave in every other party.

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