Early days I know but barring a disaster it looks like Labour is going to have a fresh surge of talent make their way into Parliament soon.
I am sure the Greens will bounce back from their current polling. I thought that Matthew Hooton and others were crazy in predicting that the Greens may not be in Parliament after the election. Then I heard the rumours of National’s overnight polling and I became aware that something significant was happening. Hooton and co were not predicting it, they were reporting what the polling was discovering and making it sound like their predictions.
This is a feature of the right in New Zealand politics and why they have had such an advantage for so long. Through vastly superior resources they are able to look deep into New Zealand’s psyche. This is why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs and why he was so confident in the positions he took. His pollsters were telling him what the dominant views were. And this is why during any time of a crisis and quickly changing events National looked stranded, not knowing which way to turn to retain popularity.
The MMP dynamic is now changing. Instead of being part of a potentially deeply unstable multi party arrangement Labour can now appear to voters to be a party that can hold significant sway in its own right. Those rowing boat ads are not going to be repeated.
I agree that the combined left vote at 41% has not moved. But the prospect of soft National votes heading Labour’s way area is now much greater.
And instead of MPs feeling threatened and consciously or subconsciously prioritising the candidate vote all effort can now be put into the party vote.
So who are the potential new MPs? Using Patrick Leyland’s seat calculator I would predict that Labour is very likely, if current polling continues, to retain all of its seats with the possible exception of Napier, pick up Auckland Central, Ohariu, Christchurch Central, Waiariki, Maungakiekie and Waimakariri. And Papakura where Labour has an outstanding young candidate in Jesse Pabla could turn red. See you later Judith. There is a reasonable chance that Helen White, Greg O’Connor, Duncan Webb, Tamati Coffey, Priyanca Radhakrishnan and Dan Rosewarne may all soon be electorate MPs.
Deborah Russell will win comfortably in New Lynn and bring some very helpful intellectual firepower to taxation and economic issues.
This would result in Labour gaining 14 list MPs if the Colmar Brunton result reflects what happens at the election.
I wrote this earlier post more in hope than in expectation. But with 14 List MPs Willow Jean Prime will be in Parliament, as will Marja Lubeck, and Anahila Suisuiki will be right on the cusp. Other talented potential list MPs include Liz Craig, Kiri Allan, Jo Luxton and Jamie Strange.
Expect National to go all out to kill the Green Party. The Greens getting 4% of the vote will in net terms provide National with a 2% swing and this would likely be an election result changer.
But no matter what it looks like Labour will be getting some much needed rejuvenation.