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What will the next Labour caucus look like?

Written By: - Date published: 1:32 pm, August 18th, 2017 - 74 comments
Categories: democratic participation, election 2017, greens, labour, national, same old national - Tags:

Early days I know but barring a disaster it looks like Labour is going to have a fresh surge of talent make their way into Parliament soon.

I am sure the Greens will bounce back from their current polling.  I thought that Matthew Hooton and others were crazy in predicting that the Greens may not be in Parliament after the election.  Then I heard the rumours of National’s overnight polling and I became aware that something significant was happening.  Hooton and co were not predicting it, they were reporting what the polling was discovering and making it sound like their predictions.

This is a feature of the right in New Zealand politics and why they have had such an advantage for so long.  Through vastly superior resources they are able to look deep into New Zealand’s psyche.  This is why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs and why he was so confident in the positions he took.  His pollsters were telling him what the dominant views were.  And this is why during any time of a crisis and quickly changing events National looked stranded, not knowing which way to turn to retain popularity.

The MMP dynamic is now changing.  Instead of being part of a potentially deeply unstable multi party arrangement Labour can now appear to voters to be a party that can hold significant sway in its own right.  Those rowing boat ads are not going to be repeated.

I agree that the combined left vote at 41% has not moved.  But the prospect of soft National votes heading Labour’s way area is now much greater.

And instead of MPs feeling threatened and consciously or subconsciously prioritising the candidate vote all effort can now be put into the party vote.

So who are the potential new MPs?  Using Patrick Leyland’s seat calculator I would predict that Labour is very likely, if current polling continues, to retain all of its seats with the possible exception of Napier, pick up Auckland Central, Ohariu, Christchurch Central, Waiariki, Maungakiekie and Waimakariri.  And Papakura where Labour has an outstanding young candidate in Jesse Pabla could turn red.  See you later Judith. There is a reasonable chance that Helen White, Greg O’Connor, Duncan Webb, Tamati Coffey, Priyanca Radhakrishnan and Dan Rosewarne may all soon be electorate MPs.

Deborah Russell will win comfortably in New Lynn and bring some very helpful intellectual firepower to taxation and economic issues.

This would result in Labour gaining 14 list MPs if the Colmar Brunton result reflects what happens at the election.

I wrote this earlier post more in hope than in expectation.  But with 14 List MPs Willow Jean Prime will be in Parliament, as will Marja Lubeck, and Anahila Suisuiki will be right on the cusp.  Other talented potential list MPs include Liz Craig, Kiri Allan, Jo Luxton and Jamie Strange.

Expect National to go all out to kill the Green Party.  The Greens getting 4% of the vote will in net terms provide National with a 2% swing and this would likely be an election result changer.

But no matter what it looks like Labour will be getting some much needed rejuvenation.

 

74 comments on “What will the next Labour caucus look like?”

  1. Takere 1

    More Neoliberalism or less?

    New Boss just like the old Boss?
    No end to;

    The Housing Crisis,
    Homelessness Crisis,
    Poverty Crisis,
    Health system Crisis,
    Environmental Crisis,
    Infrastructure Crisis.

    Just more of the same, incrementalism?

    • SpaceMonkey 1.1

      Kind of what I am thinking too. Nothing remarkable happening here… still on course for the slow slide into oblivion.

    • ankerawshark 1.2

      Takere, more neo liberalism under National…………So its your choice who/what you vote for.

      • Siobhan 1.2.1

        your ‘choice’ between neoliberalism or more neoliberalism….hmmm….and they wonder why so many don’t vote…but yeah, as a voter we can tweak things with our vote for the smaller Partys…maybe take a leap of faith and hope the Greens are still willing to walk the talk on fighting poverty.

  2. Tracey 2

    There were times Key waited more than 24 to comment on sone things. I often wondered if he was waiting for polling so he knew what to “think”. I wonder how Bill enjoyed his intensive media train8ng last week? I assume that is why he disappeared for a few days and we got Karl Rove? Sorry Steven Joyce.

  3. red-blooded 3

    I agree that there’s plenty of intellectual firepower on the Labour list and some bloody strong candidates in winnable seats. We can thank Andrew Little and his team for putting a considerable effort into compiling such an impressive and diverse list. He’s been a great organiser, and now we have a great communicator with strong political instincts fronting things we’re reaping the benefit of all that hard work.

  4. Ad 4

    OMG Mickey bit early.

  5. Michael 5

    “Expect National to go all out to kill the Green Party.” Expect National-lite to do the same.

    • SpaceMonkey 5.1

      They would be nuts to do that. NZ needs a Labour-led Government not a Labour Government, otherwise Labour will eventually run into the same problem as National are now – no friends left of any significance to help shore up their voting block.

      • They would be nuts to do that.

        Of course they would – but they keep doing it any way.

        no friends left of any significance to help shore up their voting block.

        When that happens they can go into a grand coalition with National.

    • dukeofurl 5.2

      The Greens have been doing their own self destruction recently.

    • McFlock 5.3

      Nah.

      Even if you want to be completely cynical, Labour don’t want to be beholden to NZ1, they want to be the ones granting favours, not the minor party. So they want to be able to choose between NZ1 or the Greens as coalition partners.

      Gives them more leverage.

      • Dspare 5.3.1

        McFlock
        Or even better (from Labour’s perspective) would be to have at least a confidence and supply agreement with both NZF and the GP. So that it can muster support for legislation from the other, if one party won’t back a given law (possibly with support from minor parties). Labour 41% NAt 39% with NZF 10% and GP 8% + 2% Māori/ MANA would be enough to manage that.

  6. ScottGN 6

    Mickey what makes you think Stuart Nash might lose Napier?

    • mickysavage 6.1

      I think it could be touch and go. He won last time in large part because the vote was split by the sensible sentencing trust candidate and I don’t understand they will stand someone this time. Having said that and even though politically I don’t agree with him on a lot of matters he is a good campaigner.

      • ScottGN 6.1.1

        He won’t be facing one of Kel Tremain’s sons though this time…

        • Ad 6.1.1.1

          David Elliott the National candidate is a pilot for Cathay Pacific.

          There’s only a few half-days in any week that he will be in Napier to campaign at all.

          Stuart Nash is the on-ground guy who still stands the best chance of taking the seat.

          This is the year that the tide goes out on the Nats, inside 3 weeks.

          This is Bill English’s proper burial.

          • the pigman 6.1.1.1.1

            With Nash in Napier, the Nats don’t need to run a candidate.

            Remember what a fan Nash is of the Left? Especially its online activists?

            He may have pedigree, but he ain’t Labour.

    • DoublePlusGood 6.2

      Napier is a little bit too much of a long-shot for a Labour candidate at this time.

      • Jenny Kirk 6.2.1

        Napier used to be a long-time Labour-held seat. If the tide is turning against the Nats, isn’t this reason enough to think Stuart Nash will retain the seat.

        • Sumsuch 6.2.1.1

          Forestry needs Nash more than us.

          I can imagine him every night shampooing the needles out his hair. Glorious hair, forgot to mention.

          Have nothing to object to my former school-mate, the kindest among a mess of self-centered , spoiled twots. It’s just his conceptions I hate. With venom.

    • Siobhan 6.3

      Nationals David Elliott has Zero profile down here, and any soft National voter could easily vote for Nash with a clear conscience, his politics are strictly middle of the road, pro orchardist, with a nice line in ‘tough on criminals’ and no ‘downer’ commie loving messaging about poor people and housing…he’ll be fine.
      That being said, the Good People of Havelock North are probably going to vote for someone who literally made them sick, so there is no underestimating the determination of National Party voters.

  7. The gnats won’t go all out to kill off the Greens imo – why would they? there is no advantage for them – no they will have to attack around the edges of labour – try to pick off a weak labour MP – one who talks too much or is too interested in what they think and seeing it on the news – and just like a weaker member of the herd the gnats will pack on them and try to bring them down (by highlighting shit they have said, done or about to say/do) and thus undercut labour.

    • mickysavage 7.1

      If the Greens get 4% and don’t make it their vote effectively gets halved between the left and the right.

      • marty mars 7.1.1

        if this then that means nothing unless you agree with the pollsters and think the Greens are going down the drain – is that what you think?

        I like that labour have finally found their courage and guts – for too long they have traipsed around like beaten dogs. Now the Greens will rebuild out of the limelight and be ready to help if needed.

        I hope labour don’t lose their own plot – and believe their own bullshit and begin to think they have actually done something to deserve this big upswing – the leader changed and night turned into day – and then turn on the Greens – I would be unhappy if they did that.

    • Ad 7.2

      If that entire Green vote is under 5% and therefore redistributed, National do pretty well out of it.

      A vote for the Greens is now a vote for a National government because NZFirst will not go in with Labour if it depends on the Greens.

      P=Some will still vote Green with their hearts – and it would be great if they weren’t out the back door completely – but most of the change we are seeing now is unstoppable because is rewarding charisma on television.

      • weka 7.2.1

        A vote for the Greens is a vote for National?

        One good thing about this election is it’s making it obvious which side people are on.

      • Carolyn_nth 7.2.2

        head and heart, mate. And your comment is bereft of both – and bereft of any recognisable left or labour movement values.

        So great that a lot of people will not heed your advice.

      • The Lone Haranguer 7.2.3

        No. A vote for National or Act is a vote for National. A vote for anyone else is a vote for change.

        I have no doubt that the Greens will exceed the 5%, probably by a solid margin, but I have huge doubts about whether they will make cabinet given Winston in the other corner.

        Labour/NZF have shut them out before and I dont doubt they are capable of doing it again.

        Im starting to really enjoy the drama of this election.

      • BM 7.2.4

        Jesus, you’re at of a fairweather friend there Ad.

        Burning your bridges is a very poor long-term strategy.

    • weka 7.3

      The right are going hard out to kill off the Greens. Some of that is about lessening Labour’s chances of governing, some of it is to take down any chance of NZ moving left.

      • marty mars 7.3.1

        the right want power and kicking the Greens when down won’t give it to them – sure they’ll get their bully boys to keep the pressure on BUT the real target will be Labour imo. And the Greens will withstand this easily and become stronger for it.

    • McFlock 7.4

      If Labour get over 40% and the greens are out/barely in, then NZ1 is kingmaker and the nats can bribe him. They can’t bribe the greens.

      The nat worst case is if Lab can go with either the greens or nz1 – the nats are out.

      If Lab can govern only with NZ1, or even better need NZ1 to work with the greens to get confidence, then the nats have a chance.

      So hit the greens, then work on Labour.

      • marty mars 7.4.1

        well it seems my mind is not devious enough – I hope you are wrong

        • McFlock 7.4.1.1

          Thing is, it gets to diminishing returns, even counterproductive.
          I wouldn’t be happy as a green strategist, but I wouldn’t be shitting bricks, either.

          With the nats looking weak, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the tories have a middle-campaign collapse.

          edit: Wanna get devious? Yes Minister box sets 😉

          • Ad 7.4.1.1.1

            I see that.

            English will need to be outstanding against Ardern. I don’t see it.

            Best retire the Yes Minister, skip West Wing, and go straight to Borgen.
            We need the Greens in there to counterweight New Zealand First.

            Sometimes I have dreams about Genter v Peters in Cabinet. She would win on facts, he would win on guile.

            • McFlock 7.4.1.1.1.1

              Trouble with Cabinet is collective responsibility. The most interesting battles we’ve never heard of.

  8. Et Tu Brute 8

    To decide which Labour MPs will take which cabinet seats, first decide what they’ll trade with Winston Peters? I assume he’ll want DPM role, though I don’t see him playing second fiddle very comfortably. Maybe finance minister? Or is that beneath him? He’ll want to be in the top three somewhere. Could try and get a senior NZ First MP into senior cabinet position as well. Shane Jones for foreign affairs and trade? Ron Smith for defense?

    • Carolyn_nth 8.1

      Shane Jones? Please, just, NO. And to think Labour might get him instead of Turei?

      Jones self-serving rorting of tax payer funding was far worse than anything Turei has done.

      • Et Tu Brute 8.1.1

        I didn’t say we had to like the outcome. Just what is likely. To form a government Labour will have to do a deal (as will National) and that will involve giving NZ First senior position(s).

    • dukeofurl 8.2

      DPM role is filled by the PM, thats why its called that.

      Peters isnt going to be PM

      • Et Tu Brute 8.2.1

        What are you on about DPM role is as up for negotiation as any other role. Hey, he could even ask for the PM’s office (not that he’d get it).

      • lurgee 8.2.2

        I imagine National will have worked out what they will offer Winston, in a whole range of situations.

        • Stuart Munro 8.2.2.1

          Their strategists may have – the Gnats themselves don’t do forward thinking – why the country’s such a mess.

        • rod 8.2.2.2

          National won’t have to offer Winston anything, He will go with National. He is a dyed in the wool Tory, always was, and always will be. End ov.

  9. Carolyn_nth 9

    How many GP MPs would there be with 6-8% of the party vote?

    • Karen 9.1

      Depends a bit on overlaps but they would get 7 or 8 with 6% and between 9 and 10 with 8%. If they get over 9% Jack McDonald makes it which will be excellent – but I am hoping that they do even better. I think this bad poll will actually motivate wavering Green voters.

      • Carolyn_nth 9.1.1

        Thanks. I was wanting to see if Jack McDonald will make it. A target to aim for.

        Current list to #15:

        James Shaw (Wellington Central)
        ​Marama Davidson (Tamaki Makaurau)
        Julie Anne Genter (Mt Albert)
        ​Eugenie Sage (Port Hills)
        Gareth Hughes (East Coast)
        Jan Logie (Mana)
        Chlöe Swarbrick (Maungakiekie)
        #8: Golriz Ghahraman (Te Atatu)
        Mojo Mathers (Rangitata)
        Barry Coates (Epsom)
        #11: Jack McDonald (Te Tai Hauauru)
        John Hart (Wairarapa)
        Denise Roche (Auckland Central)
        Hayley Holt (Helensville)
        Teall Crossen (Rongotai)

        • Ad 9.1.1.1

          Top 7 look solid.

        • Dspare 9.1.1.2

          Carolyn_nth
          My rule of thumb is; 12 seats per 10% of the vote (because 120 nominal seat parliament), plus 1 for redistributed vote from minor parties that fail to make it over the line (eg the ALCP, and hopefully; Untied History). On that basis, I make it 8.3% needed to get 11 GP MPs in.

  10. lurgee 10

    This is a feature of the right in New Zealand politics and why they have had such an advantage for so long. Through vastly superior resources they are able to look deep into New Zealand’s psyche. This is why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs and why he was so confident in the positions he took. His pollsters were telling him what the dominant views were.

    Alternately, he might just be quite good at reading people and sensing what they want to hear.

    Unlike some, stuck in the echo chamber, convinced that David Cunliffe was the answer to any question worth asking.

    • greywarshark 10.1

      Yes I never did hear that muffled question much less the answer. Are you sure you did?

      • Dspare 10.1.1

        greywarshark
        The question was; who would make a better leader of Labour than Captain Mumblefuck? The answer was; not Jones or Robertson.

      • lurgee 10.1.2

        I’m pretty sure I remember many hereabouts proclaiming him better than the Messiah and sliced bread. And heroically predicting everything was awesome (just give him six more months!) and that the polls were wrong.

        I even recall there were some people dreaming about him saying on as shadow finance minister after he quit the leadership. That’s the level of delusion we’ve got here.

        It is relevant (but cruel) to observe that Cunliffe did manage to poll 37% immediately after his election. Maybe swapping out Little for Ardern right before the election will prove to be a masterstroke, leaving no time for people to become disenchanted.

    • Stuart Munro 10.2

      “why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs”

      May have had something to do with suborning the media so they didn’t reveal his essential banality.

      • BM 10.2.1

        You have no idea how politics or the media works.

        Jacinda knows Key knows, you haven’t got a fucking clue which I put down to you being pompous old wanker who’s head is far up its arse you can tongue tickle your tonsils

        • lurgee 10.2.1.1

          I say, old chap. Don’t hold back. Tell us what you REALLY think.

        • Stuart Munro 10.2.1.2

          Enlighten us then, oh messenger of the gods of far-right nutjobbery whose party is somehow polling less than the margin of error 😀

        • gnomic 10.2.1.3

          Get help for the mental illness. Or find a way to stop wasting oxygen and degrading society.

  11. mauī 11

    Woah, plenty of good nuggets of info there Micky. Enjoyed that.

    Can’t wait to see Deborah Russell on the tv news regularly and it would be good to see some more of Iain Lees-Galloway. I don’t know much about the other Labourites unfortunately.

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