What will the next Labour caucus look like?

Written By: - Date published: 1:32 pm, August 18th, 2017 - 74 comments
Categories: democratic participation, election 2017, greens, labour, national, same old national - Tags:

Early days I know but barring a disaster it looks like Labour is going to have a fresh surge of talent make their way into Parliament soon.

I am sure the Greens will bounce back from their current polling.  I thought that Matthew Hooton and others were crazy in predicting that the Greens may not be in Parliament after the election.  Then I heard the rumours of National’s overnight polling and I became aware that something significant was happening.  Hooton and co were not predicting it, they were reporting what the polling was discovering and making it sound like their predictions.

This is a feature of the right in New Zealand politics and why they have had such an advantage for so long.  Through vastly superior resources they are able to look deep into New Zealand’s psyche.  This is why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs and why he was so confident in the positions he took.  His pollsters were telling him what the dominant views were.  And this is why during any time of a crisis and quickly changing events National looked stranded, not knowing which way to turn to retain popularity.

The MMP dynamic is now changing.  Instead of being part of a potentially deeply unstable multi party arrangement Labour can now appear to voters to be a party that can hold significant sway in its own right.  Those rowing boat ads are not going to be repeated.

I agree that the combined left vote at 41% has not moved.  But the prospect of soft National votes heading Labour’s way area is now much greater.

And instead of MPs feeling threatened and consciously or subconsciously prioritising the candidate vote all effort can now be put into the party vote.

So who are the potential new MPs?  Using Patrick Leyland’s seat calculator I would predict that Labour is very likely, if current polling continues, to retain all of its seats with the possible exception of Napier, pick up Auckland Central, Ohariu, Christchurch Central, Waiariki, Maungakiekie and Waimakariri.  And Papakura where Labour has an outstanding young candidate in Jesse Pabla could turn red.  See you later Judith. There is a reasonable chance that Helen White, Greg O’Connor, Duncan Webb, Tamati Coffey, Priyanca Radhakrishnan and Dan Rosewarne may all soon be electorate MPs.

Deborah Russell will win comfortably in New Lynn and bring some very helpful intellectual firepower to taxation and economic issues.

This would result in Labour gaining 14 list MPs if the Colmar Brunton result reflects what happens at the election.

I wrote this earlier post more in hope than in expectation.  But with 14 List MPs Willow Jean Prime will be in Parliament, as will Marja Lubeck, and Anahila Suisuiki will be right on the cusp.  Other talented potential list MPs include Liz Craig, Kiri Allan, Jo Luxton and Jamie Strange.

Expect National to go all out to kill the Green Party.  The Greens getting 4% of the vote will in net terms provide National with a 2% swing and this would likely be an election result changer.

But no matter what it looks like Labour will be getting some much needed rejuvenation.

 

74 comments on “What will the next Labour caucus look like? ”

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  1. Takere 1
    18 August 2017 at 1:35 pm

    More Neoliberalism or less?

    New Boss just like the old Boss?
    No end to;

    The Housing Crisis,
    Homelessness Crisis,
    Poverty Crisis,
    Health system Crisis,
    Environmental Crisis,
    Infrastructure Crisis.

    Just more of the same, incrementalism?

    • SpaceMonkey 1.1
      18 August 2017 at 2:48 pm

      Kind of what I am thinking too. Nothing remarkable happening here… still on course for the slow slide into oblivion.

    • ankerawshark 1.2
      18 August 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Takere, more neo liberalism under National…………So its your choice who/what you vote for.

      • Siobhan 1.2.1
        18 August 2017 at 4:10 pm

        your ‘choice’ between neoliberalism or more neoliberalism….hmmm….and they wonder why so many don’t vote…but yeah, as a voter we can tweak things with our vote for the smaller Partys…maybe take a leap of faith and hope the Greens are still willing to walk the talk on fighting poverty.

  2. Tracey 2
    18 August 2017 at 1:43 pm

    There were times Key waited more than 24 to comment on sone things. I often wondered if he was waiting for polling so he knew what to “think”. I wonder how Bill enjoyed his intensive media train8ng last week? I assume that is why he disappeared for a few days and we got Karl Rove? Sorry Steven Joyce.

  3. red-blooded 3
    18 August 2017 at 1:57 pm

    I agree that there’s plenty of intellectual firepower on the Labour list and some bloody strong candidates in winnable seats. We can thank Andrew Little and his team for putting a considerable effort into compiling such an impressive and diverse list. He’s been a great organiser, and now we have a great communicator with strong political instincts fronting things we’re reaping the benefit of all that hard work.

  4. Ad 4
    18 August 2017 at 2:18 pm

    OMG Mickey bit early.

  5. Michael 5
    18 August 2017 at 2:21 pm

    “Expect National to go all out to kill the Green Party.” Expect National-lite to do the same.

    • SpaceMonkey 5.1
      18 August 2017 at 2:51 pm

      They would be nuts to do that. NZ needs a Labour-led Government not a Labour Government, otherwise Labour will eventually run into the same problem as National are now – no friends left of any significance to help shore up their voting block.

      • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:09 pm

        They would be nuts to do that.

        Of course they would – but they keep doing it any way.

        no friends left of any significance to help shore up their voting block.

        When that happens they can go into a grand coalition with National.

    • dukeofurl 5.2
      18 August 2017 at 3:23 pm

      The Greens have been doing their own self destruction recently.

    • McFlock 5.3
      18 August 2017 at 3:31 pm

      Nah.

      Even if you want to be completely cynical, Labour don’t want to be beholden to NZ1, they want to be the ones granting favours, not the minor party. So they want to be able to choose between NZ1 or the Greens as coalition partners.

      Gives them more leverage.

      • Dspare 5.3.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:42 pm

        McFlock
        Or even better (from Labour’s perspective) would be to have at least a confidence and supply agreement with both NZF and the GP. So that it can muster support for legislation from the other, if one party won’t back a given law (possibly with support from minor parties). Labour 41% NAt 39% with NZF 10% and GP 8% + 2% Māori/ MANA would be enough to manage that.

  6. ScottGN 6
    18 August 2017 at 2:37 pm

    Mickey what makes you think Stuart Nash might lose Napier?

    • mickysavage 6.1
      18 August 2017 at 2:54 pm

      I think it could be touch and go. He won last time in large part because the vote was split by the sensible sentencing trust candidate and I don’t understand they will stand someone this time. Having said that and even though politically I don’t agree with him on a lot of matters he is a good campaigner.

      • ScottGN 6.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:04 pm

        He won’t be facing one of Kel Tremain’s sons though this time…

        • Ad 6.1.1.1
          18 August 2017 at 5:11 pm

          David Elliott the National candidate is a pilot for Cathay Pacific.

          There’s only a few half-days in any week that he will be in Napier to campaign at all.

          Stuart Nash is the on-ground guy who still stands the best chance of taking the seat.

          This is the year that the tide goes out on the Nats, inside 3 weeks.

          This is Bill English’s proper burial.

          • the pigman 6.1.1.1.1
            18 August 2017 at 7:00 pm

            With Nash in Napier, the Nats don’t need to run a candidate.

            Remember what a fan Nash is of the Left? Especially its online activists?

            He may have pedigree, but he ain’t Labour.

    • DoublePlusGood 6.2
      18 August 2017 at 4:04 pm

      Napier is a little bit too much of a long-shot for a Labour candidate at this time.

      • Jenny Kirk 6.2.1
        18 August 2017 at 5:56 pm

        Napier used to be a long-time Labour-held seat. If the tide is turning against the Nats, isn’t this reason enough to think Stuart Nash will retain the seat.

        • Sumsuch 6.2.1.1
          19 August 2017 at 1:24 am

          Forestry needs Nash more than us.

          I can imagine him every night shampooing the needles out his hair. Glorious hair, forgot to mention.

          Have nothing to object to my former school-mate, the kindest among a mess of self-centered , spoiled twots. It’s just his conceptions I hate. With venom.

    • Siobhan 6.3
      18 August 2017 at 4:21 pm

      Nationals David Elliott has Zero profile down here, and any soft National voter could easily vote for Nash with a clear conscience, his politics are strictly middle of the road, pro orchardist, with a nice line in ‘tough on criminals’ and no ‘downer’ commie loving messaging about poor people and housing…he’ll be fine.
      That being said, the Good People of Havelock North are probably going to vote for someone who literally made them sick, so there is no underestimating the determination of National Party voters.

  7. marty mars 7
    18 August 2017 at 2:40 pm

    The gnats won’t go all out to kill off the Greens imo – why would they? there is no advantage for them – no they will have to attack around the edges of labour – try to pick off a weak labour MP – one who talks too much or is too interested in what they think and seeing it on the news – and just like a weaker member of the herd the gnats will pack on them and try to bring them down (by highlighting shit they have said, done or about to say/do) and thus undercut labour.

    • mickysavage 7.1
      18 August 2017 at 2:57 pm

      If the Greens get 4% and don’t make it their vote effectively gets halved between the left and the right.

      • marty mars 7.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:04 pm

        if this then that means nothing unless you agree with the pollsters and think the Greens are going down the drain – is that what you think?

        I like that labour have finally found their courage and guts – for too long they have traipsed around like beaten dogs. Now the Greens will rebuild out of the limelight and be ready to help if needed.

        I hope labour don’t lose their own plot – and believe their own bullshit and begin to think they have actually done something to deserve this big upswing – the leader changed and night turned into day – and then turn on the Greens – I would be unhappy if they did that.

    • Ad 7.2
      18 August 2017 at 2:58 pm

      If that entire Green vote is under 5% and therefore redistributed, National do pretty well out of it.

      A vote for the Greens is now a vote for a National government because NZFirst will not go in with Labour if it depends on the Greens.

      P=Some will still vote Green with their hearts – and it would be great if they weren’t out the back door completely – but most of the change we are seeing now is unstoppable because is rewarding charisma on television.

      • weka 7.2.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:11 pm

        A vote for the Greens is a vote for National?

        One good thing about this election is it’s making it obvious which side people are on.

      • Carolyn_nth 7.2.2
        18 August 2017 at 3:11 pm

        head and heart, mate. And your comment is bereft of both – and bereft of any recognisable left or labour movement values.

        So great that a lot of people will not heed your advice.

      • The Lone Haranguer 7.2.3
        18 August 2017 at 3:38 pm

        No. A vote for National or Act is a vote for National. A vote for anyone else is a vote for change.

        I have no doubt that the Greens will exceed the 5%, probably by a solid margin, but I have huge doubts about whether they will make cabinet given Winston in the other corner.

        Labour/NZF have shut them out before and I dont doubt they are capable of doing it again.

        Im starting to really enjoy the drama of this election.

      • BM 7.2.4
        18 August 2017 at 5:58 pm

        Jesus, you’re at of a fairweather friend there Ad.

        Burning your bridges is a very poor long-term strategy.

    • weka 7.3
      18 August 2017 at 3:14 pm

      The right are going hard out to kill off the Greens. Some of that is about lessening Labour’s chances of governing, some of it is to take down any chance of NZ moving left.

      • marty mars 7.3.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:25 pm

        the right want power and kicking the Greens when down won’t give it to them – sure they’ll get their bully boys to keep the pressure on BUT the real target will be Labour imo. And the Greens will withstand this easily and become stronger for it.

    • McFlock 7.4
      18 August 2017 at 3:26 pm

      If Labour get over 40% and the greens are out/barely in, then NZ1 is kingmaker and the nats can bribe him. They can’t bribe the greens.

      The nat worst case is if Lab can go with either the greens or nz1 – the nats are out.

      If Lab can govern only with NZ1, or even better need NZ1 to work with the greens to get confidence, then the nats have a chance.

      So hit the greens, then work on Labour.

      • marty mars 7.4.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:34 pm

        well it seems my mind is not devious enough – I hope you are wrong

        • McFlock 7.4.1.1
          18 August 2017 at 3:42 pm

          Thing is, it gets to diminishing returns, even counterproductive.
          I wouldn’t be happy as a green strategist, but I wouldn’t be shitting bricks, either.

          With the nats looking weak, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the tories have a middle-campaign collapse.

          edit: Wanna get devious? Yes Minister box sets 😉

          • Ad 7.4.1.1.1
            18 August 2017 at 5:16 pm

            I see that.

            English will need to be outstanding against Ardern. I don’t see it.

            Best retire the Yes Minister, skip West Wing, and go straight to Borgen.
            We need the Greens in there to counterweight New Zealand First.

            Sometimes I have dreams about Genter v Peters in Cabinet. She would win on facts, he would win on guile.

            • McFlock 7.4.1.1.1.1
              18 August 2017 at 5:49 pm

              Trouble with Cabinet is collective responsibility. The most interesting battles we’ve never heard of.

  8. Et Tu Brute 8
    18 August 2017 at 2:48 pm

    To decide which Labour MPs will take which cabinet seats, first decide what they’ll trade with Winston Peters? I assume he’ll want DPM role, though I don’t see him playing second fiddle very comfortably. Maybe finance minister? Or is that beneath him? He’ll want to be in the top three somewhere. Could try and get a senior NZ First MP into senior cabinet position as well. Shane Jones for foreign affairs and trade? Ron Smith for defense?

    • Carolyn_nth 8.1
      18 August 2017 at 3:17 pm

      Shane Jones? Please, just, NO. And to think Labour might get him instead of Turei?

      Jones self-serving rorting of tax payer funding was far worse than anything Turei has done.

      • Et Tu Brute 8.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:23 pm

        I didn’t say we had to like the outcome. Just what is likely. To form a government Labour will have to do a deal (as will National) and that will involve giving NZ First senior position(s).

    • dukeofurl 8.2
      18 August 2017 at 3:20 pm

      DPM role is filled by the PM, thats why its called that.

      Peters isnt going to be PM

      • Et Tu Brute 8.2.1
        18 August 2017 at 3:24 pm

        What are you on about DPM role is as up for negotiation as any other role. Hey, he could even ask for the PM’s office (not that he’d get it).

      • lurgee 8.2.2
        18 August 2017 at 4:05 pm

        I imagine National will have worked out what they will offer Winston, in a whole range of situations.

        • Stuart Munro 8.2.2.1
          18 August 2017 at 4:43 pm

          Their strategists may have – the Gnats themselves don’t do forward thinking – why the country’s such a mess.

        • rod 8.2.2.2
          18 August 2017 at 4:53 pm

          National won’t have to offer Winston anything, He will go with National. He is a dyed in the wool Tory, always was, and always will be. End ov.

  9. Carolyn_nth 9
    18 August 2017 at 3:28 pm

    How many GP MPs would there be with 6-8% of the party vote?

    • Karen 9.1
      18 August 2017 at 3:51 pm

      Depends a bit on overlaps but they would get 7 or 8 with 6% and between 9 and 10 with 8%. If they get over 9% Jack McDonald makes it which will be excellent – but I am hoping that they do even better. I think this bad poll will actually motivate wavering Green voters.

      • Carolyn_nth 9.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 4:55 pm

        Thanks. I was wanting to see if Jack McDonald will make it. A target to aim for.

        Current list to #15:

        James Shaw (Wellington Central)
        ​Marama Davidson (Tamaki Makaurau)
        Julie Anne Genter (Mt Albert)
        ​Eugenie Sage (Port Hills)
        Gareth Hughes (East Coast)
        Jan Logie (Mana)
        Chlöe Swarbrick (Maungakiekie)
        #8: Golriz Ghahraman (Te Atatu)
        Mojo Mathers (Rangitata)
        Barry Coates (Epsom)
        #11: Jack McDonald (Te Tai Hauauru)
        John Hart (Wairarapa)
        Denise Roche (Auckland Central)
        Hayley Holt (Helensville)
        Teall Crossen (Rongotai)

        • Ad 9.1.1.1
          18 August 2017 at 5:17 pm

          Top 7 look solid.

        • Dspare 9.1.1.2
          18 August 2017 at 5:42 pm

          Carolyn_nth
          My rule of thumb is; 12 seats per 10% of the vote (because 120 nominal seat parliament), plus 1 for redistributed vote from minor parties that fail to make it over the line (eg the ALCP, and hopefully; Untied History). On that basis, I make it 8.3% needed to get 11 GP MPs in.

  10. lurgee 10
    18 August 2017 at 4:02 pm

    This is a feature of the right in New Zealand politics and why they have had such an advantage for so long. Through vastly superior resources they are able to look deep into New Zealand’s psyche. This is why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs and why he was so confident in the positions he took. His pollsters were telling him what the dominant views were.

    Alternately, he might just be quite good at reading people and sensing what they want to hear.

    Unlike some, stuck in the echo chamber, convinced that David Cunliffe was the answer to any question worth asking.

    • greywarshark 10.1
      18 August 2017 at 4:47 pm

      Yes I never did hear that muffled question much less the answer. Are you sure you did?

      • Dspare 10.1.1
        18 August 2017 at 5:46 pm

        greywarshark
        The question was; who would make a better leader of Labour than Captain Mumblefuck? The answer was; not Jones or Robertson.

      • lurgee 10.1.2
        18 August 2017 at 8:14 pm

        I’m pretty sure I remember many hereabouts proclaiming him better than the Messiah and sliced bread. And heroically predicting everything was awesome (just give him six more months!) and that the polls were wrong.

        I even recall there were some people dreaming about him saying on as shadow finance minister after he quit the leadership. That’s the level of delusion we’ve got here.

        It is relevant (but cruel) to observe that Cunliffe did manage to poll 37% immediately after his election. Maybe swapping out Little for Ardern right before the election will prove to be a masterstroke, leaving no time for people to become disenchanted.

    • Stuart Munro 10.2
      18 August 2017 at 6:02 pm

      “why John Key always seemed so in tune with dominant views and beliefs”

      May have had something to do with suborning the media so they didn’t reveal his essential banality.

      • BM 10.2.1
        18 August 2017 at 6:14 pm

        You have no idea how politics or the media works.

        Jacinda knows Key knows, you haven’t got a fucking clue which I put down to you being pompous old wanker who’s head is far up its arse you can tongue tickle your tonsils

        • lurgee 10.2.1.1
          18 August 2017 at 8:15 pm

          I say, old chap. Don’t hold back. Tell us what you REALLY think.

        • Stuart Munro 10.2.1.2
          18 August 2017 at 11:34 pm

          Enlighten us then, oh messenger of the gods of far-right nutjobbery whose party is somehow polling less than the margin of error 😀

        • gnomic 10.2.1.3
          19 August 2017 at 2:07 am

          Get help for the mental illness. Or find a way to stop wasting oxygen and degrading society.

  11. mauī 11
    18 August 2017 at 6:27 pm

    Woah, plenty of good nuggets of info there Micky. Enjoyed that.

    Can’t wait to see Deborah Russell on the tv news regularly and it would be good to see some more of Iain Lees-Galloway. I don’t know much about the other Labourites unfortunately.

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    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • National’s murderous smoking policy
    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago

  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    7 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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