web analytics

National seats at risk in Auckland

Written By: - Date published: 1:54 pm, August 3rd, 2020 - 33 comments
Categories: uncategorized - Tags: , , , , ,

National has a crop of new candidates in Auckland all wanting to be in Parliament.  But judging by what has happened so far you have to wonder if there are further allegations that may emerge which may ankle tap carefully stage managed campaigns.

In the Auckland region there are a few new candidates:

  • Jake Bezzant who was selected in Paula Bennett’s old seat of Upper Harbour.  I suspect that there must have been some local opposition to this because Lisa Whyte,  who has been on the local board there for a number of years and was at one time chair, must be a better fit.  Bezzant should win, even against Labour’s impressive Vanushi Walters, but it could be tight and he may be one scandal away from losing.
  • Lisa Whyte who was shuffled down to New Lynn to do the impossible, take a Labour seat of high flying Deborah Russell.  She is unknown in the old New Lynn part of the electorate and has the completely wrong qualifications to hope to win the Waitakere Ranges part of the electorate.  My assessment is that she has no chance.
  • Nuwanthie Samarakone whose commitment to the Manurewa seat is that strong she is trying to become the Auckland Central candidate.  She has no chance in either seat.
  • Bala Beeram who has absolutely no chance in Kelston against Carmel Sepuloni.
  • Rima Nakhle who is National’s candidate in the new seat of Takanini.  On paper the seat looks marginal but the way things are right now she should lose.
  • Simon Watts who is standing on the North Shore.  He is an accountant and a former banker.  At least he lives on the Shore and has done so for a while.  Although Labour’s Romy Udanga is impressive and hard working I can’t see Labour winning this seat.
  • And Chris Luxon in Botany who again should win although Jami-Lee Ross could cause some problems for him.

Of course these are predictions only and could change, particularly if another scandal and more infighting bursts out into the public arena which given what has happened so far could be any time now.  Tick tock …

33 comments on “National seats at risk in Auckland ”

  1. I am fast running out of popcorn!!

  2. RedBaronCV 2

    Okaeee what do you know that we don't and how long before we find out – guesses acceptable

  3. Dan Bidois (Nat) must be nervous about Northcote as it's been trending to Shanan Halbert (Lab) and all he talks about is clogging up Onewa Rd with more cars

  4. Ad 4

    It just feels like Labour are coasting.

    I would be more impressed if Labour had a chance at taking out one of New Zealand's regional seats that National dominates.

    I know it's not MMP, but when the rural-urban divide of electoral seats is so stark between Labour in the cities and National across the rest of the map, we're actually perpetuating a massive and growing rural-urban cultural divide.

    • Cinny 4.1

      I'm predicting Dr. custard (nick smith) will lose his seat to Rachel Boyak, it's sort of a regional seat.

      • Michael 4.1.1

        I'm picking squabbling Labour v Greens candidates will gift him another term. Again.

        • Cinny

          Not this time.

          Last election it was different due to a generous donation from a deceased local, on the condition they stood a strong candidate in the Nelson seat, it was nothing to do with squabbling.

    • Peter 4.2

      Some of the regional MPs like Adams and Falloon are doing their bit. Probably means the National candidates there will have majorities of down towards 10,000.

      What sort of not coasting would Labour have to not do to have a chance in those seats?

    • ScottGN 4.3

      Tukituki could fall to Labour if the polls continue as they are currently.

      But ultimately the urban-regional divide in electorates is the product of consolidation in order to make way for MMP and the list seats. Almost all the old provincial safe Labour seats based on smaller cities have been swallowed by their surrounding, extremely safe National rural seats. Even Dunedin hasn’t been immune, the old Dunedin South took on a much bluer tinge in the last couple of boundary adjustments.

      • Muttonbird 4.3.1

        Yule has been busted flagrantly breaking the rules by using taxpayer funds for candidate advertisements.

        Paywalled, but you get the picture.


        The Labour-led government recently set up a water quality body to to oversee councils who like to cut corners. It has been created to ensure Yule’s water poisoning debacle doesn’t happen again.

        If I were the Labour candidate there I would be highlighting it is Labour which looks out for your health, not National.

        Even though this is patently obvious with our gold standard Covid-19 response.

        • roblogic

          Labour should not be complacent, as Bomber rightly notes we are only one fuckup away from a renewed COVID outbreak. Our health system remains chronically underfunded in the middle of a pandemic and border management are so stretched (again lacking capability due to neoliberal cost cutting mentality) that they had to call in the Army to help.

          Hardly any businesses or public facilities have bothered with the QR code thing and the government’s contact tracing app is only used sporadically. This is not good enough, there should be nationwide campaigns to take this shit seriously. There should be advice on where to get a proper mask if you feel sick. The government Covid updates should still be a regular feature in the media, but it feels like they have slacked off.

          Oh yeah and why are we letting thousands of permanent “residents” into the country who never really lived here, ahead of NZ citizens? Our visa and immigration rules are as effective as toilet paper in a hurricane. Time to batten down the hatches and rethink our slackarsed exploitative hypertourism and hyperimmigration economy

          • RedBaronCV

            Agree about the PR's and no doubt some passport holders where it is a second or subsequent passport. I've been over on pen mike We can't keep them out legally but legally I'm sure we could run a points system to ration the quarantine places. Bottom of the list would be those who have never bothered to live here- at the top single passport holders with no visa's to live anywhere else

    • Scott 4.4

      Here what you mean –

      Am looking at Kiritapu Allen in the East Cape, don't know if that's in play but would like to think so; Nelson a good shot; Perhaps Whanganui?; Wairarapa should go to red; and it would be good to see us push one of the Hamilton seats as they were the old FPP battleground, but don't think they're likely to be in play.

      Of course we do hold the Maori seats, and saw there was a big launch, and looking like a big campaign to keep those.

    • Maurice 4.5

      Indeed – we would do well to remember that both food and water comes from those rural areas.

      Some rurals are laughing their (wooly!) socks off watching Auckland beg for the sewage flowing down the Waikato – for DRINKING water!

    • Michael 4.6

      Why does it matter? Under MMP a vote in the cities is worth the same as one in the sticks. If the gumboots want to vote for reactionary racists let them. Provided enough people in the cities vote for decent human beings (well, politicians) Aotearoa can survive the throwbacks. OTOH, a Labour candidate who appealed to hillbillies isn't worth having (Labour's had a few over the years, affirming my judgment of their worth). Farming is controlled by corporations. Farmers are irrelevant.

  5. You picked what would happen re Nuwanthie and other candidates. Wow.

  6. novacastrian 6

    Many here are calling it coasting, but really the strategy appears to be a simple but effective "Shut up and say nothing".

    Labour has made virtually zero policy releases, yet still riding high in the polls, whereas Nationals and Greens are making policy announcements and getting torn to shreds.

    Think Jacinda has taken the penguins of Madagascar approach…just smile and wave boys

    Same strategy appears to be working for Biden in the US, the less he says the better his Polling gets. With Trump and Biden as the US hopefuls, it's sort of like watching a rerun of the movie Dumb and Dumber. Makes you glad to live in NZ.

    • Muttonbird 6.1

      Bless. You just wrote down what Heather Duplicity-Allan told you last night.

      • Michael 6.1.1

        Not quite what she broadcast last night. Far more critical of Labour than Novocastrian's fairly mild analysis. FWICS, Labour's heavyweights are busy running the government and doing all sorts of things that could be seen as "election campaign" if Parliament had risen earlier. As it is, this narrative of busy, competent delivery seems to be going down well with voters still amenable to reason. Not sure how many of them there are: my bandwidth is swamped by Crusher's Natzis making all the noise.

    • mickysavage 6.2

      Budget 2020 has all the policies that you need to know about. Have a read if you want to see the direction Labour wants to move the country into.

      • Michael 6.2.1

        True. Reckon Labour campaigners need to make more use of it rather than assume every voter's memorised every word by heart.

    • observer 6.3

      The Greens have announced a full policy on the economy, including tax and benefits, followed by even more detailed policy at their conference/launch last weekend.

      National have re-announced some roads. Nothing is costed at all. Their policy pages are blank.

      Lumping them together is nonsense.

      As for Labour, they launch their campaign on Saturday. If you'd been paying attention at all, you'd know that this is the last week of Parliament, and policies are being introduced (hopefully passed) by the government. Then the House rises, and we focus on the different parties. Which are not the same as the government.

      This is really basic stuff, it's MMP for beginners. Is this your first election here?

      • Muttonbird 6.3.1

        I hope Ad reads this.

      • Michael 6.3.2

        Patronising and smug – the very attitudes from Labour insiders that drive away voters who are not fanatics in their droves.

        • observer

          Novocastrian has made a series of previous comments which have been wrong on the facts. I have previously pointed out his/her errors (on numbers, history etc) and provided links to facts and figures, but s/he has never responded, or engaged at all. At some point patience runs out with trolling. So yes, patronising and smug if this were a discussion in good faith. But it isn't.

          Assumptions can be smug too. I am not, and never have been, a Labour insider, or party member at all. I was previously a member of the Greens and will give them my vote, in 2020 as in 2017.

          Anyone who genuinely thinks National and the Greens have announced similar policy detail only needs to go to their websites to see the difference:



          A stark difference. But only if "Novocastrian" wants to be informed.

  7. Enough is Enough 7

    What scandal are you referring to?

    We have two words starting with "D" and "P" that we use when National infers there is something scandalous about to break in the Labour party.

    Lets get out of the gutter and talk policy

    • mickysavage 7.1

      This site talks policy all the time. Dirty Politics would be leaking and smearing someone with allegations that have not been made public. There is no smear here and it does not even refer to any scandal. It just points out that a major scandal could make a major difference to the campaign.

  8. Michael 8

    Samarakone is certainly photogenic. I know that shouldn't matter to sober voters but not everyone approaches their political deliberations with the wisdom of Pericles. This woman may appeal to red-blooded types. I've heard [deleted uncalled for and potentially defamatory – MS].

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Celebrating the Entry Into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
    [Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Supporting disabled people to stay connected
    The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Voluntary saliva testing offered to quarantine workers from Monday
    Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Next steps in firearms buy-back
    The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today.  “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better care for babies with tongue-tie
    Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison over
    The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Pre-departure COVID-19 test for travellers from the UK and the US from 15 January
    Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago