National seats at risk in Auckland

Written By: - Date published: 1:54 pm, August 3rd, 2020 - 33 comments
Categories: uncategorized - Tags: , , , , ,

National has a crop of new candidates in Auckland all wanting to be in Parliament.  But judging by what has happened so far you have to wonder if there are further allegations that may emerge which may ankle tap carefully stage managed campaigns.

In the Auckland region there are a few new candidates:

  • Jake Bezzant who was selected in Paula Bennett’s old seat of Upper Harbour.  I suspect that there must have been some local opposition to this because Lisa Whyte,  who has been on the local board there for a number of years and was at one time chair, must be a better fit.  Bezzant should win, even against Labour’s impressive Vanushi Walters, but it could be tight and he may be one scandal away from losing.
  • Lisa Whyte who was shuffled down to New Lynn to do the impossible, take a Labour seat of high flying Deborah Russell.  She is unknown in the old New Lynn part of the electorate and has the completely wrong qualifications to hope to win the Waitakere Ranges part of the electorate.  My assessment is that she has no chance.
  • Nuwanthie Samarakone whose commitment to the Manurewa seat is that strong she is trying to become the Auckland Central candidate.  She has no chance in either seat.
  • Bala Beeram who has absolutely no chance in Kelston against Carmel Sepuloni.
  • Rima Nakhle who is National’s candidate in the new seat of Takanini.  On paper the seat looks marginal but the way things are right now she should lose.
  • Simon Watts who is standing on the North Shore.  He is an accountant and a former banker.  At least he lives on the Shore and has done so for a while.  Although Labour’s Romy Udanga is impressive and hard working I can’t see Labour winning this seat.
  • And Chris Luxon in Botany who again should win although Jami-Lee Ross could cause some problems for him.

Of course these are predictions only and could change, particularly if another scandal and more infighting bursts out into the public arena which given what has happened so far could be any time now.  Tick tock …

33 comments on “National seats at risk in Auckland ”

  1. I am fast running out of popcorn!!

  2. RedBaronCV 2

    Okaeee what do you know that we don't and how long before we find out – guesses acceptable

  3. Dan Bidois (Nat) must be nervous about Northcote as it's been trending to Shanan Halbert (Lab) and all he talks about is clogging up Onewa Rd with more cars

  4. Ad 4

    It just feels like Labour are coasting.

    I would be more impressed if Labour had a chance at taking out one of New Zealand's regional seats that National dominates.

    I know it's not MMP, but when the rural-urban divide of electoral seats is so stark between Labour in the cities and National across the rest of the map, we're actually perpetuating a massive and growing rural-urban cultural divide.

    • Cinny 4.1

      I'm predicting Dr. custard (nick smith) will lose his seat to Rachel Boyak, it's sort of a regional seat.

      • Michael 4.1.1

        I'm picking squabbling Labour v Greens candidates will gift him another term. Again.

        • Cinny

          Not this time.

          Last election it was different due to a generous donation from a deceased local, on the condition they stood a strong candidate in the Nelson seat, it was nothing to do with squabbling.

    • Peter 4.2

      Some of the regional MPs like Adams and Falloon are doing their bit. Probably means the National candidates there will have majorities of down towards 10,000.

      What sort of not coasting would Labour have to not do to have a chance in those seats?

    • ScottGN 4.3

      Tukituki could fall to Labour if the polls continue as they are currently.

      But ultimately the urban-regional divide in electorates is the product of consolidation in order to make way for MMP and the list seats. Almost all the old provincial safe Labour seats based on smaller cities have been swallowed by their surrounding, extremely safe National rural seats. Even Dunedin hasn’t been immune, the old Dunedin South took on a much bluer tinge in the last couple of boundary adjustments.

      • Muttonbird 4.3.1

        Yule has been busted flagrantly breaking the rules by using taxpayer funds for candidate advertisements.

        Paywalled, but you get the picture.

        The Labour-led government recently set up a water quality body to to oversee councils who like to cut corners. It has been created to ensure Yule’s water poisoning debacle doesn’t happen again.

        If I were the Labour candidate there I would be highlighting it is Labour which looks out for your health, not National.

        Even though this is patently obvious with our gold standard Covid-19 response.

        • roblogic

          Labour should not be complacent, as Bomber rightly notes we are only one fuckup away from a renewed COVID outbreak. Our health system remains chronically underfunded in the middle of a pandemic and border management are so stretched (again lacking capability due to neoliberal cost cutting mentality) that they had to call in the Army to help.

          Hardly any businesses or public facilities have bothered with the QR code thing and the government’s contact tracing app is only used sporadically. This is not good enough, there should be nationwide campaigns to take this shit seriously. There should be advice on where to get a proper mask if you feel sick. The government Covid updates should still be a regular feature in the media, but it feels like they have slacked off.

          Oh yeah and why are we letting thousands of permanent “residents” into the country who never really lived here, ahead of NZ citizens? Our visa and immigration rules are as effective as toilet paper in a hurricane. Time to batten down the hatches and rethink our slackarsed exploitative hypertourism and hyperimmigration economy

          • RedBaronCV

            Agree about the PR's and no doubt some passport holders where it is a second or subsequent passport. I've been over on pen mike We can't keep them out legally but legally I'm sure we could run a points system to ration the quarantine places. Bottom of the list would be those who have never bothered to live here- at the top single passport holders with no visa's to live anywhere else

    • Scott 4.4

      Here what you mean –

      Am looking at Kiritapu Allen in the East Cape, don't know if that's in play but would like to think so; Nelson a good shot; Perhaps Whanganui?; Wairarapa should go to red; and it would be good to see us push one of the Hamilton seats as they were the old FPP battleground, but don't think they're likely to be in play.

      Of course we do hold the Maori seats, and saw there was a big launch, and looking like a big campaign to keep those.

    • Maurice 4.5

      Indeed – we would do well to remember that both food and water comes from those rural areas.

      Some rurals are laughing their (wooly!) socks off watching Auckland beg for the sewage flowing down the Waikato – for DRINKING water!

    • Michael 4.6

      Why does it matter? Under MMP a vote in the cities is worth the same as one in the sticks. If the gumboots want to vote for reactionary racists let them. Provided enough people in the cities vote for decent human beings (well, politicians) Aotearoa can survive the throwbacks. OTOH, a Labour candidate who appealed to hillbillies isn't worth having (Labour's had a few over the years, affirming my judgment of their worth). Farming is controlled by corporations. Farmers are irrelevant.

  5. You picked what would happen re Nuwanthie and other candidates. Wow.

  6. novacastrian 6

    Many here are calling it coasting, but really the strategy appears to be a simple but effective "Shut up and say nothing".

    Labour has made virtually zero policy releases, yet still riding high in the polls, whereas Nationals and Greens are making policy announcements and getting torn to shreds.

    Think Jacinda has taken the penguins of Madagascar approach…just smile and wave boys

    Same strategy appears to be working for Biden in the US, the less he says the better his Polling gets. With Trump and Biden as the US hopefuls, it's sort of like watching a rerun of the movie Dumb and Dumber. Makes you glad to live in NZ.

    • Muttonbird 6.1

      Bless. You just wrote down what Heather Duplicity-Allan told you last night.

      • Michael 6.1.1

        Not quite what she broadcast last night. Far more critical of Labour than Novocastrian's fairly mild analysis. FWICS, Labour's heavyweights are busy running the government and doing all sorts of things that could be seen as "election campaign" if Parliament had risen earlier. As it is, this narrative of busy, competent delivery seems to be going down well with voters still amenable to reason. Not sure how many of them there are: my bandwidth is swamped by Crusher's Natzis making all the noise.

    • mickysavage 6.2

      Budget 2020 has all the policies that you need to know about. Have a read if you want to see the direction Labour wants to move the country into.

      • Michael 6.2.1

        True. Reckon Labour campaigners need to make more use of it rather than assume every voter's memorised every word by heart.

    • observer 6.3

      The Greens have announced a full policy on the economy, including tax and benefits, followed by even more detailed policy at their conference/launch last weekend.

      National have re-announced some roads. Nothing is costed at all. Their policy pages are blank.

      Lumping them together is nonsense.

      As for Labour, they launch their campaign on Saturday. If you'd been paying attention at all, you'd know that this is the last week of Parliament, and policies are being introduced (hopefully passed) by the government. Then the House rises, and we focus on the different parties. Which are not the same as the government.

      This is really basic stuff, it's MMP for beginners. Is this your first election here?

      • Muttonbird 6.3.1

        I hope Ad reads this.

      • Michael 6.3.2

        Patronising and smug – the very attitudes from Labour insiders that drive away voters who are not fanatics in their droves.

        • observer

          Novocastrian has made a series of previous comments which have been wrong on the facts. I have previously pointed out his/her errors (on numbers, history etc) and provided links to facts and figures, but s/he has never responded, or engaged at all. At some point patience runs out with trolling. So yes, patronising and smug if this were a discussion in good faith. But it isn't.

          Assumptions can be smug too. I am not, and never have been, a Labour insider, or party member at all. I was previously a member of the Greens and will give them my vote, in 2020 as in 2017.

          Anyone who genuinely thinks National and the Greens have announced similar policy detail only needs to go to their websites to see the difference:

          A stark difference. But only if "Novocastrian" wants to be informed.

  7. Enough is Enough 7

    What scandal are you referring to?

    We have two words starting with "D" and "P" that we use when National infers there is something scandalous about to break in the Labour party.

    Lets get out of the gutter and talk policy

    • mickysavage 7.1

      This site talks policy all the time. Dirty Politics would be leaking and smearing someone with allegations that have not been made public. There is no smear here and it does not even refer to any scandal. It just points out that a major scandal could make a major difference to the campaign.

  8. Michael 8

    Samarakone is certainly photogenic. I know that shouldn't matter to sober voters but not everyone approaches their political deliberations with the wisdom of Pericles. This woman may appeal to red-blooded types. I've heard [deleted uncalled for and potentially defamatory – MS].

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