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One News Colmar Brunton Poll Oct 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, October 14th, 2019 - 121 comments
Categories: class war, economy, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, Media, national, nz first, political parties, Politics, Simon Bridges - Tags: ,

Another day, another poll. And another disappointing, if somewhat disguised, result for Simon Bridges.

Frankly, the National leader has had a week to forget, with yesterday’s Newshub poll suggesting that the Tories would not only lose to a Labour/Green Government (the right’s nightmare scenario) but his one useful lifeline, NZ First, is on track to being dumped from Parliament.

And this on top of the midweek anointment of his replacement, Simon Luxon, by Tory King maker John Key.

Sucks to be Simon, huh?

Today’s Colmar Brunton poll is their fifth of the year and is not much different from their previous polling in July, nor from yesterday’s TV3 poll.

As usual, the Colmar Brunton poll overestimates Tory support, suggesting they might scrape into Government with the help of their poodle party, ACT.

But the reality is that Labour and the Greens are going to form the next Government and no amount of Tory lying on social media by omission or distortion is going to change that.

The Colmar Brunton results are as follows:

In theory, this means National get 60 seats* and a two seat majority with the help of ACT. It ain’t gonna happen, not least because in the other poll question, preferred PM, Jacinda Ardern remains comfortably ahead, 38% to Bridges’ 9%.

*This doesn’t actually make mathematical sense using TV One’s figures. At 47%, National get 59 seats, and ACT’s 1 means the right would be tied with Lab/Green who would also have 60 seats. Not sure why One News are claiming this poll gives National a working majority, because on the numbers provided, it doesn’t. And those numbers provided also add up to 101%, which is kinda weird. It’s almost like One News are manufacturing a narrative, but that can’t be right. Right?

121 comments on “One News Colmar Brunton Poll Oct 2019”

  1. ianmac 1

    Jessica Mutch joins Nat 47% with a hopeful 1 % Act (maybe with 2 MPs.)

    Jessica Mutch joins Labour 40% + Greens 7% but ignores the 4% NZF.

    I know that on that poll NZF would not get in but….

    • Rapunzel 1.1

      18% "undecideds", National Party voters I know are never undecided, that is a lot of votes.

    • michelle 1.2

      what does jessica mutch know not much and she can’t add

      • Dukeofurl 1.2.1

        1% in a sample of 1000 is 10 people. Thats the numbers who put their hand up for ACT .

        probably less as they have excluded the 18% dont knows.

        • Dukeofurl 1.2.1.1

          " For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to 1 decimal place. "

          Says Colmar Brunton, but not followed by 1 News

    • michelle 1.3

      jessica is an idiot and think she knows everything she also says some dumb things

  2. Anne 2

    The sooner Mutch has her baby (I'll swear she's been pregnant for a year ) and disappears off our screens the better. I want someone with a little less built-in bias.

    • ScottGN 2.1

      You’re unlikely to get any less bias from anyone in our media Anne, it’s just the way they are.
      it would be great though if the Labour Party, after letting National and their proxies in the media destroy three Opposition Leaders and now try the same shit with an enormously popular Prime Minister could get their act together and come up with a strategy to deal with this.

      • Red Blooded One 2.1.1

        Agreed, allowing National to control the narrative is just dumb.

      • michelle 2.1.2

        ScotGN they have a strategy to deal with nationals bullshit its called a coalition government and NZ First party they are the ones that will dish it to national during the next election and i cant wait

    • michelle 2.2

      plus 100 Anne she is bias and she don't care either

  3. coge 3

    Let's be honest here, everyone knows there is only one poll that counts.

    All Labour needs to do knuckle down harder fighting climate change, and they'll romp home. Haven't they seen the people out on the streets? Bit of a no brainer really.

    • Siobhan 3.1

      "Haven't they seen the people out on the streets"

      …problem there is Jacinda liked the nice school kids protesting (in other words polite 'school project' protesting)…not the pesky adults making a scene…

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/116396819/pm-jacinda-ardern-critical-of-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-protest-disruption

      Don't misunderstand, the kids protesting is awesome, that early engagement will hopefully lead to more action as they get older…but it actual change, change that must be fought for, only happens when Citizens are willing to 'fight'.

      To think change will happen if we ask for it nicely would be to totally ignore the entire history of Progressive change.

      • lprent 3.1.1

        Don’t misunderstand, the kids protesting is awesome, that early engagement will hopefully lead to more action as they get older…but it actual change, change that must be fought for, only happens when Citizens are willing to ‘fight’.

        Yep. And it has to be a sustained movement and a long-term push. ie not like the occupy movement.

    • michelle 3.2

      now we have people dropping dead on the streets and we are finding bodies in rivers and streams these will be some of nationals mean policy victims as there was and is no housing crisis nah! it all in our mind

  4. observer 4

    But the reality is that Labour and the Greens are going to form the next Government and no amount of Tory lying on social media by omission or distortion is going to change that.

    Um, that's exactly what could change that. It's why they are doing it. We'd like to think that NZ is different from Australia, the UK, the USA, etc. But don't bank on it.

    The government has a positive story to tell. But they aren't very good at telling it. The nasty negative fills the vacuum (backed by lots of cash). And it works.

    If a couple of bad polls kick out the complacency, that's good. Labour especially need to up their game – and Ardern can't do it all.

    • ScottGN 4.1

      I agree with you totally. The problem though is that the losers in charge of the Labour Party would struggle to organise a lie down in a mortuary let alone mount a fight back against National’s dirty politics operation. They don’t deserve Ardern and if (when?) she loses next year it will completely be the fault of the people running the party. I’m a member and I’ve been told that the leadership in the party have privately tried to blame the disastrous handling of the sex scandal allegations on Ardern, whom they say was too preoccupied by the media narrative. They have all conveniently forgotten that at the first sign of trouble they all fled the field and left her to deal with the fallout.

    • michelle 4.2

      well our PM told a positive story this morning on RNZ yet our mainstream media are doing their very best to destroy our pm and her reputation but based on our council elections i cant see national getting in with all their foreign money their spin and lies i think people are starting to see them for who they really are and they ain't nice that is foreshore.

    • mike 4.3

      i think the spoiler could be the private debt problem

  5. So labour and the greens numbers are both up from the 2017 election. Does that make NZf the weakest link?

    I'd like to see another few points on the left side of the ledger, and a continuing downward trend would be bad, but still plenty of time to go yet. At least no one's gonna get complacent.

    • rockape 5.1

      But didnt the Greens fall 6% in the 3 months before the last election?

      • The Al1en 5.1.1

        I'm not expecting the greens to start polling behind act any time soon, but yes it did, and went to labour, but a core is a core is a core.

      • michelle 5.1.2

        yes the Greens fell before the last election and the NZ First rose but the youth vote my bet is it will go to the Greens so they have a real chance of getting more numbers back in parliament now is the time this young block wont vote national they know national are all about business at all costs and fuck the environment.

  6. Charlie 6

    What does everyone here expect, just more anti Ardern headlines and propaganda from the neolib nact wankers. The left needs to get into gear and FIGHT BACK and stop pussy footing about thinking Jacinda will sort it all out. Observer is on the money.

    • Rapunzel 6.1

      At the moment media across the sector are desperate for relevance to survive and are playing NZ to suit, that is the start of where the fight back needs to begin.

  7. The March Hare 7

    There are many of us who voted for Labour last time because we really believed that they were serious about wanting to fix the housing crisis. We now know that they are not. The falling numbers for Labour could be due to a really simple explanation, which is that many of us feel let down by their unwillingness to do anything meaningful about the issue and are therefore looking for other parties to vote for.

    • Which other parties do you feel are candidates for a more serious approach to the housing crisis? (Disclaimer: I'm a Green Party donor and voter, so do have a particular party in mind.)

      • The March Hare 7.1.1

        Well, I have often voted Green whenever I have felt disillusioned by Labour or feel that I cannot trust Labour. My worry now though is that the Greens are so joined at the hip to Labour that they are not going to do anything to meaningfully contradict them. The only other option is the Opportunities Party which is now actually beginning to look appealing now that Gareth Morgan is no longer associated with them.

        • Sacha 7.1.1.1

          You don't think Winston First might be having a dampening influence on Green policy priorities this term? Remove that factor..

        • Sanctuary 7.1.1.2

          I smell a concerned troll.

          • heather Grimwood 7.1.1.2.1

            to Sanctuary at 7.1.1.2: Spot on…absolutely reeking

          • The March Hare 7.1.1.2.2

            Classy Incognito, really classy. Don't respond to my concerns, just hurl insults. There is a reason why Labour has lost a fifth of their supporters (including myself) in the past 3 months, and it comes down to two simple words, 'housing crisis'.

            • Incognito 7.1.1.2.2.1

              Excuse me? You may be addressing the wrong person. In fact, I’ve sent Sanctuary a Moderation note @ 20.2.1.1 to stop accusing other commenters of being trolls. Please don’t pick a fight with me or anybody else on this site. Thanks.

              • The March Hare

                My mistake Incognito, I was indeed addressing Sanctuary. My apologies. But I stand by everything else in my response which I think was justified and was not trying to 'pick a fight' with anyone.

      • Kevin 7.1.2

        None of the major parties want any change around housing, that is my belief. The so-called 'mum-and-dad investor' group wields too much political power.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 7.2

      I know what you mean about being disappointed in the coalition's actions on housing – but a swing to supporting National doesn't make much sense (they were far worse on housing etc, in very recent memory). But then logic and voter sentiment are often not joined at the hip.

    • McFlock 7.3

      short version: govt down 1%. If NZ1 win a seat, current coalition can form. If NZ1's polling is 1% low, xurrent coalition can form. If greens or Labour are 1% low in poll, hung parliament.

      $7billion fiscal mountain to spend in election year budget.

      lolz

      • Herodotus 7.3.1

        the “surplus” that is there is not money, just financial trickery, and from reading many of your comments you know that. Hard to spend the book revaluation entry on rail. Remember the govt increase debt by $700m over the same period of the surplus.

        Just viewed Q&A why cannot labour Just do Something ? Talk about affordability in housing, tell many that $650k for a 3 bedroom townhouse/apartment is affordable ? Imo that is the problem these govt. mps live in Disneyland with NO contact with those grubby plebs who have to live day to day with the consequences of The govts policies 🤢

        • Dukeofurl 7.3.1.1

          Yes . Its not affordable in the scheme of things, but there is currently no way to sell them for $500k without gifting a massive capital gain to the new owners and at a loss for the taxpayers.

          The other side is that median household income in Auckland is around $120k per year. So that can be affordable in the median households eyes where they are paying $600 pw for a standard 3 br house anyway.

        • McFlock 7.3.1.2

          In economics (especially capitalist economics) "trickery" counts, too. That's why people will give you food if you can make a little handheld screen say "accepted" rather than "declined".

          $2billion was an asset revaluation. The prediction three or four months before was 2 billion and change. The extra 2 billion and change came from treasury predictions of numbers on a computer screen not matching the numbers that actually appeared on that computer screen.

          That's the thing about magic: if enough people believe it, it works.

    • New view 7.4

      TMH. How refreshing to get an honest view of what’s happening rather than than (Its Nationals fault, It’s The Media’s fault). Most of those here seem one eyed. Would never put any blame on JA who seems to be out of the country more than she’s in it. Still happily support their Government who has a massive surplus but seem mystified about how to spend it , and can’t seem to control any unsavoury occurrence that pops up within their ranks. The general public aren’t stupid. They see what’s happening and wonder whether Labour’s coalition is capable of sorting it out. I’m from the right but saw there was big social issues not being addressed. If Labour’s coalition was able to stop stumbling and start walking they may have convinced me they were special. They aren’t.

      • michelle 7.4.1

        you have a one eyed view too new view with an old view

      • Janet 7.4.2

        They have had to turn a big ship back onto to course. I give them time but the immigration issue did not need time. It needed to be dealt to immediately. It was the root cause of most of the things we are fed up with in NZ.

    • patricia bremner 7.5

      The March Hare, How do you get to that square? They are building more social housing, they are working on Kiwi build problems(changing rules about prefabs), Looking at schemes like allowing people to buy an investment property with their Kiwi Saver, Tackling the fragility of our banking, looking into Rent to Buy, and supporting other providers.

      There is currently more building than any time since 1974. Why are you so negative?

      They can't do much more in 2 years !! They have tackled all of the issues. Granted they haven't had total success, but they are not acting like there is no problem.

  8. Yeah , your pretty well right, except for NZ First.

    They will be back , and part of the next Labour coalition.

    That's just the way it is under MMP.

    And no , NZ First wont be going with the ChiNational party , no matter what specious motives some might have for wanting to see them off. They are here to stay. Unlike the ChiNational vested interest party. The only place they will be staying is in the opposition benches.

    So be happy.

  9. Rrm 9

    Justin Lester gone, and now the writing is on the wall for [the incredibly popular Prime Minister] and the Groper party.

    It was a good day. 😘

    [No misogyny, thanks. TRP]

    • michelle 9.1

      Lester might be gone but Barry was labour in the Hutt Valley and we have always been labour, national only got hutt south due to boundary changes they took Naenae out of that boundary and in they came

    • aom 9.2

      Lester gone but new Labour councillors, one in a 'blue' ward show that the problem was the departed Mayor not the branding. He never came across as holding Labour values anyway. That aside, there appears to be a newly emerging political demographic with young progressives being elected. There is also an increasingly engaged youth demographic who appear more likely to be active voters. The polls are on the way to being consigned to the dustbin of of history.

      • michelle 9.2.1

        And so are national on the way to being consigned to history cause those active voters aom talks about who do yo think they are more likely to vote for it wont be the new god luxon nah! it will be another young person who is not afraid to take on the old guys and who has no dirt or political baggage.

  10. JustMe 10

    Methinks that National are suffering from the Green Eyed Monster syndrome and hence having a 'poll' that supposedly shows how fantastic National is.

    Most of us know that the mainstream NZ media are well and truly so deep into the NZ National Party pocket that they(the media)may as well live in a quagmire.

    Jacinda in particular has received so much praise, respect, admiration and regard over a long period of time and it highlights to many the obvious fact there is not one current or former National Party politician or former prime minister that has received the same level of attention.

    It surely must really irk National and in particular Simon Bridges that he is being constantly upstaged by a woman who has shown more caring and compassion than any female MP in his Party has ever shown to another human being?

    National and its prime ministers of the recent past must have thought the ONLY way to achieve respect, admiration, regards etc from others around the world is for National to use NZ taxpayers money on such things as a flag referendum and other vanity projects. That is National and its prime ministers of the recent past thought they ccould buy supporters etc.

    Maybe buying and bribing others is the way to go for National but it certainly doesn't mean the support will always be there.

    When all things considered I know I am so proud of Jacinda Ardern and this government. I don't think National will ever achieve much in their lifetime because they resort to jealousy and feeble attempts at Upmanship. And each time they behave like that it makes me realise they(National)just do not merit votes at the next election.

    • Grantoc 10.1

      The problem you face Just Me, is that most of NZ disagree with you, so the polls tell us.

    • michelle 10.2

      The same old fools will vote for them (national) just like some of our local body elections we still have some old hasbians with outdated ideas and views

    • aom 10.3

      …… and let's not forget JustMe, that unlike with Jacinda, the taxpayers had to foot the bill for Key's US TV appearance. Even then, all it did was make him look like a dozy dork.

  11. NZJester 11

    The National Party media shills have jumped on the poll results to post fluff stories about it. MSN, RNZ, Stuff, & News Hub all had links to National and Act could win the next election type stories.

    When the margin of error is listed as 3.1 percentage points on those polls and National are only up 2 percentage points on the poles you know these stories have no real hard numbers behind them.

    One says;

    The age of Jacindamania is over. Brand Ardern has taken its biggest knock yet – and when Labour's magic weapon loses its power, the party does too.

    All that quote on the fact she dropped 3 percentage points in a preferred prime minister pole that has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

    I would be worried if the changes actually exceded the margin of error, but the current shift is not statistically big enough to worry about.

    • rockape 11.1

      It could also mean National on 50% and labour on 37% In that margins of error dont just go the way you want!

  12. Glenn 12

    NZ First will pick up that 1% once the official campaign starts but Winston has to play nice and not make too many waves until then..

    • michelle 12.1

      and that is what Winstone is doing Glenn he aint dumb he knows what he is up against and he is waiting he might lose some conservative votes but he will pick some others up i know some of our our Maori whanau always vote for Winstone they trust him more than some of the others even though he runs us down they still vote for him.

  13. Cantabrian 13

    To see that National Party stooge Ben Thomas going on about dodgy NZF donations when the Natz have taken thousands upon thousands from China emphasises the lack of balance that TVNZ exhibits. And tame Jack never challenged him of course.

  14. Anne 14

    It’s almost like One News are manufacturing a narrative, but that can’t be right. Right?

    When I saw those numbers earlier this evening I figured something was… not quite right.

    If ever there was evidence that the MSM in general is hopelessly biased this is it!

    For God's sake Labour use it. Make an ass of them. They deserve it. Nah, they'll do their usual – be their timid selves and let the sods get away with it.

    • michelle 14.1

      don t worry Anne if Labour wont do NZ First will that is the one reason i am happy They are there in this coalition

  15. Grantoc 15

    The problem you face Just Me, is that most of NZ disagree with you, so the polls tell us.

    • McFlock 15.1

      47% isn't "most". Nor is 50 out of 101.

      • michelle 15.1.1

        national still haven't come to terms with MMP and there loss at the last election and they still think because there party got more party votes they should be in power they don't seem to like rules or laws they are too use to changing rules and laws when it suits them but are happy to be punitive to others they are no the sort of people we want to ever run our country again

    • michelle 15.2

      Grantoc the polls say 47 % nats and 1.4% act that equals 48% how are they able to form a government on 48% then they have 3 minor parties with unchanged polling at least that is what it says that is another 3% that equal 51%

      120 seats is 61 seats is that what you are saying but will they get in

      Labour @ 40% Greens @ 7% NZ First @ 4% equals 51 %

      what do you think is the most likely option

      based on what you said grantoc half of our population don't agree with you can you see how hard it will be for your tory lot to get in so soon after all their fuck ups and lies

      • te reo putake 15.2.1

        Hi, Michelle. I often fill my idle hours playing with the Electoral Commission's MMP result calculator. What I learned from entering the TV One results is that a party (the Nats in this case) need 47.2% to get 60 seats. It may well be that their result was that or above and TV One rounded down for simplicity's sake. However, they should have said so, because it is confusing at best, outright wrong at worst.

        There is also the slim possibility that ACT pick up a second seat if their party votes gets nearer 2%, meaning the Tories would only need 59 seats to govern.

        https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/

        • Phil 15.2.1.1

          I often fill my idle hours playing with the Electoral Commission's MMP result calculator.

          This should be your tinder bio. Every data nerd in the country would swipe right in a heartbeat.

          There is also the slim possibility that ACT pick up a second seat if their party votes gets nearer 2%

          Could it also be the case that they're polling sufficiently under 1% for their electorate seat to be an overhang? Then Nat and Lab+Gre both being on 47% would give them 60 seats each in a 121 seat parliament.

          • te reo putake 15.2.1.1.1

            Good point re: ACT (and tinder for that matter!). If a thousand people are polled, then it’s just 8-12 people determining that ACT is reported as having achieved 1%. On election day, it’s the vote of hundreds of righties who could pick either National or ACT who will decide. If it’s widely felt that National are going to win in a canter then ACT might well pick up an extra seat. If it’s tight, then ACT sympathetic Tories will most likely stick with the Nats just to be safe.

        • Andre 15.2.1.2

          Uh, around 1.2% would give them a klingon on top of Seymour. Just over 2% would give them two klingons plus seymour. ACT party vote would have to drop below about 0.4% for the Epsom rort to become an overhang.

        • michelle 15.2.1.3

          but they haven't counted NZ first who will not go with national really they are stretching it lets be honest with soimon at the helm nah! even johns endorsement of his bald god from air nz (luxon) now what does this say about soimon to me this say he (soimon) is fucked

          • Phil 15.2.1.3.1

            They haven't counted NZF because NZF doesn't have an electorate seat.

            Northland is a pretty marginal seat all things considered, so maybe a deal with Labour could see Winston sneak in the back door that way, but I can't imagine it's a palatable strategy for most Labour voters.

  16. David Mac 16

    Moaning about how hard done by I am never really seems to improve my situation.

    Things only seem to take a turn when I put my 'What am I going to do about it' hat on.

    I think the hive need to get better at delivering on promises and superb at telling us about the delivery. Perception is everything.

    I'm fed up with hearing it's somebody else's fault. Nobody else gets that luxury.

    Own it and win.

  17. R.P Mcmurphy 17

    just another storm in mutchlys d cup.

  18. McFlock 18

    The 101% and seat numbers are examples of reasonable individual assumptions leading to nonsensical results. The figures are rounded, so national could be on 47.4% and act on 0.6% and nats get 60 while act get 1 (Epsom). But the sheer normality of the epsom gift means it's sensible to count Epsom for act, but NZ1 is less likely to get a seat or cross 5% viewed seperately (even if it's a fair bet they'll get 5% or an electorate seat: they're well practised at coming back againsat expectations).

    Either way it's all breathless contemplation of fuckall change. ODT headline it "Poll shows Nats at highest level since 2017". Should bloody read "poll shows nats highest since the election they lost".

  19. Brian Tregaskin 19

    "It would be great though if the Labour Party, after letting National and their proxies in the media destroy three Opposition Leaders and now try the same shit with an enormously popular Prime Minister could get their act together and come up with a strategy to deal with this."

    +1 Labour will almost certainly lose the next election if they don't come up with a strategy to deal with

    1:Media setting the narrative

    2:National facebook attack adds –which worked for Trump —big attack budget for next year

  20. Sanctuary 20

    Michael Joseph Savage said "…We might make mistakes but we will make other things too…"

    Labour's "problem" is they are trying to make things and in the modern febrile media environment that means you simply paint a big target on your back for a constant stream of whining, gotcha, fall from grace stories. Kiwibuild is firmly in this mold. No real attempt to discusss what it was trying to do or where it may have failed. Just a procession of reckons and sneers – Hahaha! Loser! GOTCHA! Phil Twyfords fall from grace!

    Don't forget these polls was taken in the immediate aftermath of an all-out right wing punditry pile on over the Labour sex allegations, a quite deliberate campaign orchestrated by National via it's reliable media shills of character assassination that was aimed directly at taking down Jacinda Ardern.

    I predicted at the time it was the ideal story for the right wing reckons of our pundit class, they could accuse and speculate and ask endless pointless questions without having to get off their comfortable fat arses and interact with anything approaching an evidence based look at the issues facing New Zealand. Instead, they got to indulged in their default settings – anti-Labour, anti-civil society, and a lazy GOTCHA! Jacinda's fall from grace! narrative.

    Given the ambient media hostility to Labour, it's lazy and sensationalist narratives, and the far-right attack shift of National it is clear that the left has to grasp that the coming election is going to be an ugly culture war.

    • Rapunzel 20.1

      100% agree. A large 18% aren't sure what to think, but it appears, not yet at least, to be "National" despite intense media focus on negative ANZ surveys & as yet unreolved other matters.

    • ScottGN 20.2

      if Labour hadn’t mishandled the sex allegations so badly National and their mates in the media wouldn’t have had nearly as much ammo to throw at Ardern.

      Labour don’t really deserve to be in government they are a bunch of useless amateurs. And things are probably only going to get more difficult in election year as NZFirst starts to really play up.

      • Sanctuary 20.2.1

        Repeating National party talking points to try and frame the discussion merely indicates to me you are troll. Go listen to the Hosk, you'll like that.

        [Could you please stick to the topic/content of the comment and please don’t start troll accusations if you don’t like the answer/reply. Thanks – Incognito]

        • Incognito 20.2.1.1

          See my Moderation note @ 9:41 AM.

        • Unicus 20.2.1.2

          "Natinal Party Stalkers" ?

        • ScottGN 20.2.1.3

          Me a troll? You don’t know what you’re talking about. I’ve been a member of the Labour Party for years. And I’ve been appalled at how badly the party has handled the sexual assault allegations especially considering we went through the same thing last year with the Youth Camp. National only has ‘talking points’ because Labour screwed this up so badly.

        • greywarshark 20.2.1.4

          Labour … a bunch of useless amateurs. I feel that every polly is an amateur. What would a professional be like? Some of the academics I read don't seem to have their heads screwed on properly. T

          To be fair all pollies are having to deal with the future which they don't know about despite all projections and pillocks who think they do with confidence. Dominic wotsname in the UK is having to work hard along with fellow plotters to try to keep ahead.

          It must be fun being CTlimited looking to see if the systems will work to put their Don Quixote in power. There's money in advanced fortune telling; do they still use crystal balls or chicken entrails along with computer hacking and other devious machine-oriented information?

  21. mpledger 21

    The 101% isn't really strange – it's a well known effect of rounding – basically more things are getting rounded up then rounded down.

    Suppose there are 3 parties and 1000 people are asked for their preference and 336 favour the first two parties and 328 favour the 3rd party then

    _______Proportion____%_____% (rounded)

    P1_____336/1000____33.6______34

    P2_____336/1000____33.6______34

    P3_____328/1000____32.8______33

    SUM_____1__________100______101

  22. John Clover 22

    Two things amuse me about this thread/

    Anybody using the term "Tory" is obviously a way gone leftie and can/should be ignored.

    That the media is right wing ….. LOL …. at Kiwiblog they say the opposite and from working in it I would personally agree rather from what I have read at KB.

    • solkta 22.1

      from working in it I would personally agree

      Yeh but a way gone Tory like you would think that.

    • Anne 22.2

      That the media is right wing ….. LOL …. at Kiwiblog they say the opposite and from working in it I would personally agree rather from what I have read at KB.

      uggh?

      Whatever you're trying to say, there's one big difference between Kiwiblog commenters and The Standard commenters. The average IQ levels. At Kb it's around 80 or less. At TS it's above 100 – well above in many cases.

    • Thank goodness we can count even if the media can't. Basic factchecking absent apparently.

      Those Tory figures should be ignored!

      • heather Grimwood 22.3.1

        to greywarshark at 22.3 : "Those Tory figures should be ignored"…indeed they should, Taking heed just feeds their story-line. Be above it and kill it in its track.

        • greywarshark 22.3.1.1

          HG Yes I try to, but so many keep feeding the b…ggers. They are like pigeons, they flock and proliferate, and leave a mess of excrement behind. You notice I feel quite strongly about this!

          • heather Grimwood 22.3.1.1.1

            to greywarshark at 22.3.1.1:

            Yes, your simile was well chosen. I feel as you do today with so many unfamiliar nom-de-plumes busy.

        • Red Blooded One 22.3.1.2

          I wish it was as easy as that, but I fear the Blue Rosetted Wingnuts and the gullible Numbnuts that believe their attacks and lies are controlling the narrative and ignoring them will only give them greater power.

          • greywarshark 22.3.1.2.1

            Wise point. And people love the Blue Rosetted Wingnuts and breed them and show them off at special occasions. I feel they have become endemic or epidemic or something.

    • Unicus 22.4

      Is the Pope a Catholicc –

      Why on earth would a corporate owned news organisation be anything other than right wing

      Murdoch right wing dogma has stained media throughout the western world – including New Zealand

      • greywarshark 22.4.1

        Blood or tea? Cake or Die? Can we have a choice of news organisations? Some are trying. Support Scoop and regularly take the temperatures of the others – red, temperature rising, energy – blue, going cold, zombie-like.

    • John. I've also worked in the media on and off for many years and my takeaway is that most media folk reflect the the rest of the country. That is, the majority are either vote Labour or Nat and the rest vote for smaller parties. However, almost every journo I've ever met tries to report news neutrally. Opinion pieces are another matter, obviously.

      However, the key question is not the staff, it's the owners. One of the principles of the fourth estate has been that there has to be a separation between the views of the owner and the views of the outlet. ie, the paper, radio station, TV station etc. should have its own house style and its own independent vision and the owner should not interfere editorially.

      This separation has been blurred in recent decades, most obviously through the efforts of Rupert Murdoch. Anybody working for a News Corp/Fox outlet knows full well that they are not to bag any other part of the empire and they should cross promote wherever possible.

      Re: Tory. It's still a relevant word and if you wish to ignore people who use it, that is your choice. But it's an odd complaint to make given that you are on a left wing site and have chosen to engage rather than ignore. Cheers, TRP.

      • John Clover 22.5.1

        Thank you TRP for that interesting comment on my objection to the four letter word in question ,,,,BUTI think it is irrelvent to NZ and describes a section of the English political life.

        As for the relative IQ of correspondents to the two blogs, I might tend to agree but am aware of self-delusion 🙂

  23. Dukeofurl 23

    NZ Herald headline

    "Latest political poll: National surges to highest level since 2017"

    Surge isnt a 2% rise . Thats margin of error adjustment.

    Just as well then the media is left wing

  24. Adrian 24

    Ïs it true that the headline writers, because headlines are not nesseccarily written by the reporter or opinionator, for one or both of the main rags are based in Australia.

    I recall a complaint from a journo a few year ago about this issue as I think the sub editors are there too.

    • No not at all do Australian owners influence the news or headlines. There are of course Australian connections here who keep in touch with home. And that is facilitated by their employers, for instance they are flown home each night in time for dinner and returned early in the morning. The time differences do make a complication, and there is thought of these being altered, to bring NZ into line with eastern Australia.

      NZ must make changes so it can attract the best in their field in the world. Some investors from overseas do not like the Daylight Saving Time and want that abolished to put NZ into a more suitable time zone appropriate to where their home investments are.

      /not all sarc

  25. Bollix!- what are you all panicking about?

    The ChiNational party doesnt have a show of winning the next election. Not a snowballs.

    Relax.

    Dad’s Army: DON’T PANIC (supercut) – YouTube

    • IU think that anyone who watches that Don't Panic clip should take its message seriously, and sit down and have a cup of tea. To keep on would result in madness for sure. It's too OTT. I liked that little guy, in fact the whole thing.

  26. swordfish 26

    A Few Stats:

    Intending Party Vote

    Colmar Brunton Polls (since 2017 GE)

    Lab Govt Nat Oppo Lead

    29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 39 51 46 46 Govt + 5

    10–14 Feb 2018 48 56 43 44 Govt + 12

    7–11 Apr 2018 43 54 44 44 Govt + 10

    19–23 May 2018 43 52 45 46 Govt + 6

    28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018. 42 53 45 46 Govt + 7

    15–19 Oct 2018 45 57 43 43 Govt + 14

    24–28 Nov 2018 43 52 46 47 Govt + 5

    9–13 Feb 2019 45 54 42 43 Govt + 11

    6–10 Apr 2019 48 58 40 40 Govt + 18

    4–8 Jun 2019 42 53 44 44 Govt + 8

    20–24 Jul 2019 43 52 45 46 Govt + 6

    5-9 Oct 2019 40 51 47 48 Govt + 3

    Oct 2019 CB vs RR

    CB 5-9 Oct 2019 40 51 47 48 Govt + 3

    RR 2-9 Oct 2019 42 52 44 45 Govt + 7

    Preferred PM

    Colmar Brunton Polls (since 2017 GE)

    Ardern Bridges/English Collins Peters PM Lead

    29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 37 28 (E) – 5 + 9

    10–14 Feb 2018 41 20 (E) – 4 + 21

    7–11 Apr 2018 37 10 (B) 2 5 + 27

    19–23 May 2018 41 12 2 4 + 29

    28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 40 10 2 5 + 30

    15–19 Oct 2018 42 7 5 4 + 35

    24–28 Nov 2018 39 7 6 4 + 32

    9–13 Feb 2019 44 6 6 3 + 38

    6–10 Apr 2019 51 5 5 3 + 46

    4–8 Jun 2019 45 5 6 5 + 40

    20–24 Jul 2019 41 6 6 2 + 35

    5-9 Oct 2019 38 9 5 4 + 29

    Oct 2019 CB vs RR

    CB 5-9 Oct 2019 38 9 5 4 + 29

    RR 2-9 Oct 2019 38 7 5 ? + 31

    • lprent 26.1

      Yeah – the usual bouncing around in the government / opposition (and movement within each)
      Usual post-xmas buzz up for the government while summer lasts.

      Looking through that October 2018 is the only major outlier (?)

      But overall, that National killed any real political partner party (subservient parties like Act really don’t count) is just killing National. Probably will for a few elections yet.

      They might actually be the biggest party and not gain the government benches for anything up to a decade. God knows it took a while to convince the rest of Labour that MMP required real coalition parties and that meant moderate levels of cooperation rather than full blown competition.

      I suspect that National will really have an even bigger problem learning that. Especially since they have managed to make the economic centre-left (ie labour, greens and even NZF) sprawl all over the centre with their non-economic policies.

      Meanwhile the remaining people to the ‘left’ of Labour and the Greens are just about as daft as ever. Slagging off every other centre and left party, including other micro parties of the left will never build a party that is capable of getting into parliament. Not just with a 5% threshold, but even with a 3% or even a 2% threshold if we went there.

      Cooperation between people of differing beliefs is what builds political parties. Recognising and being tolerant of differences between political parties is what builds coalitions.

      Being fractious enough to be party of one (as the left onesies tend to be) is to be relegated to just being a useless critic 😈

      • Phil 26.1.1

        They might actually be the biggest party and not gain the government benches for anything up to a decade.

        Assuming this poll is accurate (insert whatever usual statistical caution, MoE, or only-poll-that-matters cliche you like) then we're about a 1% movement away from a 3-party parliament and National being able to govern alone while Labour and the Greens sit in opposition.

        • lprent 26.1.1.1

          Sure that could happen – literally anything is possible. However it seems to me to be highly unlikely.

          I think that the last time parliament was won on the popular vote to a single party with more than 50% was nearly 70 years ago in 1951. That was on the back of a massive scare campaign where the government effectively controlled most of the media directly or indirectly.

          https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/historical-events/18901993-general-elections

          National actually got 47+% in 2011 and 2014. They went up from the 44+% in 2008 by cannibalising their support parties. Now they are left with a subservient Act and having to convince Winston and NZ First.

          I'd expect that if National look like they're going to get over 50%, then there will be a heightened interest in voting by those who are usually too lackadaisical to vote.

          The problem with that is that NZ First really doesn't want to die, and there are a awful lot of National supporter would prefer to be in opposition to cooperating with NZ First – such is the scare campaigns that National have been running with their sheeple over the years.

          • John Clover 26.1.1.1.1

            I doubt if David Farrar would agree with me that polls largely depend on the people they poll. For a period I was polled by one and at that time I thought Winston Peters was of value and after a period my wife stopped buying from the polling site and my contributions stopped …. and Winston stopped leading the polls … you may understand my lack of belief in the accuracy of polls 🙂

  27. swordfish 27

    Latest Colmar Brunton compared with Colmar Brunton conducted at same point (24 months) following 1999 Election:

    Lab Govt Nat Oppo Lead

    Nov 2001 44 48 40 45 Govt + 3

    Oct 2019 40 51 47 48 Govt + 3

    Clark / Ardern English / Bridges PM Lead

    Nov 2001 40 19 + 21

    Oct 2019 38 9 + 29

    .
    (Note: English in 2001)

  28. Lettuce 28

    Who's Simon Luxon?

  29. observer 29

    Good on One News (or Colmar Brunton):

    I made this comment yesterday about approval ratings: Link.

    Swordfish has said more, in greater depth. And behold … it came to pass. They are now including positive/negative ratings on leaders in their polling.

    As their report stated, this is common practice overseas. NZ is just catching up. It addresses the old problem of "missing voters" in preferred PM ratings: that's why it is a poor indicator (National voters who don't say "Bridges" but don't say any other names either, like Labour voters who didn't say Goff or Cunliffe etc, are still likely to go out and vote for the party).

    Whereas research suggests a clearer link between voter behaviour and net positive/negatives. So it's good to have this measure included in the polling from now on.

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