- Date published:
6:00 am, June 2nd, 2021 - 76 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:
Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
I guess thats it.
No it clearly is not. The next steps will be to drill the bore holes and analyse the evidence.
So sorry… "should have added within the mine."
The Emperor has no clothes
That is a very penetrating article. Thanks.
Some related reading,
Paul Krugman presents mainstream hubris.
Why the present mainstream view still presents only a very narrow perspective on deficit hawks.
What do deficit hawks think about criticism of their policy failures?
More than interesting….fundamental.
IF confidence is lost there is nothing else to maintain that which underpins society
Waiting for the first Canterbury farmer to refuse ,"Socialistic" handouts from the ,"pretty socialist".
Well put, was listening to the whining on RNZ this morning, nothing funny at all about family and animal lives being disrupted…but, I have not heard the air raid siren wind up like that since Auckland Chamber of Commerce rep Michael Barnett and Queenstown business reps performances during COVID lockdowns.
Wonder how those plains formed in the first place.
O yeah been happening for centuries.
Aren't they good stout English plains brought from Merrie England by good stout English Yeomen gentleman farmers then?
Internet comment of the day.
Though to be fair, there is going to have to be huge amounts spent on flood protection and proofing in the years ahead.
Maybe they could reinstate some of those wetlands that were drained…
Wonder who gets to pay for that..
Free market insurance companies will refuse to cover flood prone areas as they have done in the past
KJT, Lol Lol.
For every time there is a purpose under heaven,
A time to cry
Dunedin 's cycleways around the harbour from Port Chalmers all the way around to Portobello are outstanding assets for its citizens.
Not if they get inundated by water as most of the cycle way is low laying.
They have been built up for sea level change this century.
You have a look at how high the tide gets around the harbour now it just needs a moderate wind and parts are covered at higher tides.
No cyclists on the road during those times.
I'm there tomorrow I'll have a look.
How much did they raise the path? High tide and the right wind used to see waves coming over the top at Mac Bay.
The rebuild looked like it was over a metre from the original.
I could just ask Fulton Hogan I guess.
I’d love to know. It was such a great thing to build, and am curious what they decided was optimal height.
Worsening climate is baked in now whatever Hawkins does at a local level about emissions reduction. No reason not to do it of course – but a lot of money will have to go into mitigation and retreat. Otherwise we will have a social disaster as people can no longer afford insurance and are wiped out financially, physically and emotionally by floods, droughts, etc.
Hawkins popularity has gone right down because people don't like the reality of changing habits to mitigate climate change such as giving up heavy reliance on cars .
Most people are complaining about congestion and lack of car parks many who supported Hawkins just to keep the ultra right Vandervis out have now changed their allegiance.
Vandervis continues to play the victim in his obsessive drive to become mayor by being anti everything pulling every publicity stunt he can.
Dunedin has ample car parking, and both the consultant who measured it and the Council are in agreement over that.
Everyone who cares about climate change has to be prepared to fight their councils on it, often for years at a time.
What is “ultra right” supposed to mean here? Is that a lazy term you use for people whom you dislike and/or disagree with?
No it's because I know his politics his connections.Lee wants to sell off all council owned companies.
His over the top complaints cost rate payers millions in Deltas unauthorized developments in Queenstown and Christchurch forcing the council to sell of those developments at fire sale prices.
Lee is all about Lee no one else
That does not qualify him as "ultra right", which tends to mean something quite different and altoegther more dubious.
Don't know about "ultra right", but here's Dunedin city councillor and mayoral candidate Lee Vandervis on climate change (in 2013).
People (and the climate) can change. Maybe Cr Vandervis is just misunderstood?
Councillors united against Vandervis
Outspoken councillor costs own council $94,000 – in part down to a $12 parking ticket
Any links about that?
Sacha Purely annecdotal from a very well connected Dunedinite.
In other words, unsubstantiated innuendo AKA fake news.
I know many hundreds of dunedinites from dunners and the mood has definitely changed.I have been involved in dunedin politics probably longer than you have been a live.
[fixed typo in user name again]
I’ll have to take your word for it and even though yours is a ‘ironclad argument’, it is in dire want and need of factual evidence to replace your anecdotal hearsay.
If you follow the news down here,that is what many folk are thinking.Hawkins is not up too it,may well move into central politics(Green party)with even less affect. As for Lee I think that boat has sailed,to disruptive.Their will be a new mayor and Deputy after next elections.
Give us a link with something more substantial, please. A poll, a survey, something a little more tangible. I have no idea what I should imagine with “many folk”; tens, hundreds, thousands, some, a few?
Google is your friend,their is plenty over the last couple of years,by the way when did a many become a few, do I have to school you about local body politics. But my point is my view and as I have little data per month* I wont be bothering to link,an further to that I'm not good at it,so mute point,sorry.
*.. only cell phone tethering.Oh I'm trying to learn,computers do my head in,so as stated above"sorry"
No , Google is not my friend; I can find whatever I like, based on all the info Google has on me. You didn’t give any helpful hints either to start a search.
I like to draw attention to the fact that stories, messages, memes and what have are started and spread on the internet by people with an agenda and/or personal bias. For this reason, I cannot take personal anecdote from an anonymous commenter seriously and nor should I or anybody else here, for that matter.
If someone wants to spout a personal opinion on Hawkins, they are free to do so, within the rules of this site. However, they cannot speak for or on behalf of others or make unsubstantiated claims about a ‘change of personal opinion’ as if these are facts!
I live in dunners.
Not sure Hawkins popularity has changed much. The water thing was a bit of a hit, but the griping about carparks from VdV and a couple of other councillors isn't making a dent.
I suspect Hawkins will do another term as mayor (to prove it wasn't luck) then go to central government.
Good to hear a personal view from somebody who actually lives in Dunners.
"Good to hear a personal view……..I'm not going to get into an argument with (comment/mod),only too say read what was said and have a look at links already provided by others.
……..from somebody who actually lives in Dunners. Is that right
Exactly right AB. Oh hell, can some authorities really grasp the enormity of problems, and make plans to help the unfortunates to make reasoned withdrawal plans? Some of these people's houses on low lying areas need to be used as rentals now, while the owners seek permanent places on higher ground, and prepare for a loss on their lower house when it must be abandoned.
The local councils could build expertise in helping larger houses be converted to two or three sub-units, build granny flats at rear, subdivide or cross lease larger sections.
But most of all check with Master Builders or other reliable source on your choice of builder. They are dropping out leaving people in deep trauma. I suggest have a small basic plan that allows for built-on rooms side or over, with Council approval so that foundations are secure. Think about privacy from close neighbours too, Council might not care.
Council could assist with plans and info. for building sturdy units on steep ground:
Look at the Finnish designs we were trialling in the 1960s before we ran out of individual initiative.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2012/may/10/futuro-ideal-home-wasnt The oil crisis of 1973, which tripled the price of plastic, was the final nail in the coffin. And there went another piece of 1960s utopianism.
For every time there is a purpose under heaven,
What has been is been,what has done is done,there is nothing new under the sun.
Hi Poisson, (great name by the way)
It is notable that the Southland floods were preceded by months of drought, a phenomonen, which in the link you provided, is called the 'Noah Effect', but which I suspect will soon become to be called the 'New Normal'.
What will the government do with this piece of hard fact that can't be dithered around?
The government has been warned that closing down the country's only oil refinery could expose New Zealand to fuel security risks.
The Energy Minister said these risks are not significant, but a consultant's report to the government says the opposite.
The risks centre on reconfigured supply chain, meaning the country would hold significantly less fuel because it held no crude awaiting processing.
Let's NOT go for a system based on 'best practice', best efficiency, and without unexpected outcomes not allowed for, and a childish belief that everything will turn out all right if we just rely on our allies, friends and regular friendly business partners. Here is another opportunity to abandon the country's best interests gummint – leave us wide open as you so often do, no probs, we'll manage, the Little Smart Country with a big mouth!?
For us more risk averse older types, jettisoning the capability for local refining is a big step. The refinery will be decommissioned with various cleanups needed and no quick route back to refining crude. I am close to Marsden Pt by geography and personal contacts. Operators knew something was up last year when fresh catalyst vital to the process, and worth millions was not re-ordered.
One of Muldoon’s Think Big projects is basically going to be a storage unit with a pipe to Auckland. Marsden B was never fully commissioned, and the last recent Refining NZ CEO buggered off because the Board would not entertain revising B into solar and other green energy.
The retail petrol companies have certainly done well out of Refining NZ–gifted to them by one Roger Douglas and friends.
Can we buy it for $1?
How we deal with roading will also be interesting… where will our bitumen come from?
Personally I believe it's a mistake as is stopping natural gas production.
What we should do is look to ban imports and have very tight nationalized production here with world leading environmental standards at the ability to use price control to reduce usage.
Stopping local production is effectively just 'off shoring' our emissions looks good on paper here globally speaking at absolute best neutral at worst we start importing say coal on a bunker oil burning ship…
Marsden Point's closure fits very well with the Government's climate change policies.
We will be entirely at the mercy of international markets and prices for all kinds of petroleum products from kerosene, aviation fuel, the different petrols, diesel, bunker oil, and all the way to plastics and tar. And TBF that's a good thing: those regular crises will be largely unhedged apart from some overseas reserve contracts – contracts which mean little in a genuine crisis a we've seen from the Covid vaccine distributions.
So every time there's an oil supply crisis or price spike, those combustion engine alternative debates get fresh alerts in neon lights.
We're in a completely different context to Think Big, which was all about increased energy self sufficiency following the oil spikes of the late 1970s.
I hope that the next step isn't to take up Breatharianism.
Our export sectors are already remarkably comparatively efficient in terms of petroleum inputs.
Our cities however are our sinkholes of inefficiency, which is why it's worth all the dreary effort to make private cars less attractive.
Oh can we expect private cars to be treated like tobacco and priced higher and higher and made more difficult to obtain can we?
The entire electrification process is fueled by fossil fuel … without security of supply the process simply cannot be brought to fruition.
No Diesel => no transport => no wind farms => no more hydro capacity built => no more rail network => no more FOOD
Most Tier 1 construction companies are replacing their light truck fleets to prepare for the Climate Commission targets. Won't happen all this year, but they know that if they don't demonstrate they are going Net Zero, they just aren't going to win the next job.
Those are the people that use the trucks to transport those great wind farm components. I'm building one at the moment.
So no, your causal chain doesn't have any bearing on the reality on the ground.
Someone may have noted this but just in case … We may have to deflate the Transtasman bubble.
The state reported six new locally acquired coronavirus cases on Wednesay taking the outbreak to 60 cases.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said on Tuesday night that the virus was moving "faster than any other strain we've dealt with".
"We're seeing transmissions in settings and circumstances we've never seen before," he said.
His comments came as a new positive case was identified in a Victorian who had travelled to New South Wales and back again, prompting a whole raft of new exposure sites.
For the first time, health officials have seen four or five cases where people were infected by strangers by casual contacts.
Victoria's Covid-19 testing commander Jeroen Weimar said the interactions were "very fleeting contact" and quite different to what Australia is used to seeing…
"What we're seeing now clearly is people who are, they're brushing past each other in a small shop, they're going around a display home, they're looking at phones in a Telstra shop," he said.
So. if money supply tightened then inflation might go up? And might inflation being low be part cause of those without personal debt having a field day and those with debt in 'credit' cards, be most subject to the other inflation rise in housing and food?
It can be important to understand that terms may have different meanings in different contexts. As that piece explains the RBNZ has done a lot of spending to help make the govts deficit spending happen fluidly. This is called a cost, but in practice its only the RBNZ which issues these monies anyway. If you understand the RBNZ spending as the countries house hold chore roster, then that cost here means it has recorded more chores being completed recently. That should also align with the temporary decision to purchase a lot of output in the form of a wage subsidy, while the govt budget is typically mostly focused on buying public goods. The salient point for why this analogy is a better understanding of 'cost' here is that people understand that recording too many items on their chore roster doesn't bankrupt them into being unable to record additional chores.
In terms of inflation its going to be important to understand its a phenomenon of general price increases and not of relative changes in the price of different goods and services. Yes, this makes it contentious how to measure inflation as the aggregate price of which identified bundle of goods.
But it seems reasonable to expect inflation to go up only once the level of spending starts to push on productive capacity to deliver. At that point businesses might increase prices or they might further if wage increases cause a loss of their margins. The salient point being inflation will be caused by something which causes many businesses to decide to put their prices up.
It just doesn't seem that businesses pay much attention to the money supply when adjusting their prices.
Seeing it now, 7-13 % across the board in my industry with reviews in 3-6 months
Its more important to understand that the RBNZs bond purchases dont directly add money to the economy…and that any 'cost' depends upon what happens offshore and the relationship between the NZD and the major tradeable currencies…if and when those actions impact the cost of debt financing in the future are largely out of our hands.
"Its more important to understand that the RBNZs bond purchases dont directly add money to the economy…"
In what sense? These are the transactions,
1) the govt (usually the DMO) sells bonds to primary dealers, removing money from the economy in exchange for a bond and allowing the buyer to specify a price at which they buy.
2) the RBNZ buys these bonds on the secondary market, using its intrinsic spending capacity, and providing that money back to the bond seller. This usually happens at a small capital loss to the RBNZ so the primary dealers get a small profit for acting as intermediaries here.
3) At some similar time the treasury will spend the borrowed funds. If that happened before 1 then potentially the same funds were used for step 1 (in some sense).
But the point is that the RBNZ bond purchase directly put spending ability in the economies hands including a net profit on the DMO's initial borrowing.
Nic theNzer Could the Reserve Bank set up its own system for supplying credits to a government department or agency providing cheap housing loans to specific young adults rather than trying to influence banks in certain ways to do this. It is indirect and not very effectual. As the banks do not find it a good market, there is market failure here, and could the RB step up with a limited amount of capital to start to fill this gap?
Yes absolutely. I believe there are still provisions in the act where the finance minister can demand the RBNZ provides loans to the govt directly, for 6 months time frame. That the govt was not doing this was highlighted by Grant Robertson before QE was initiated.
Further with some changes in legislation the RBNZ could alternatively provide treasury with an unlimited overdraft on its account in the payments system.
But banks and other primary dealers seem quite willing to participate in this given the miniscule risk small profit terms.
Thats in terms of govt spending.
In terms of housing loans, yes, thats basically how student loans work. Though the govt would probably need to look at the credit conditions it lends on a lot closer. As the BNZ bank failure showed there should be an independent regulator somewhere in the mix.
The bond purchases are from institutional investors and increases their collateral but not their spending ability as that collateral remains within the RBNZ reserve accounts…the only spending capacity that leaks into the system is through the minimal commissions to the approved traders and increased private bank lending promoted by the reduced interest rates…assuming the economy can service the additional lending and has a purpose for it and the banks are confident their capital is not at risk.
On the Government side (fiscal) the increased borrowing capacity theoretically will lead to greater government spending into the economy but we know how slow that spending is getting out the door….especially when you have one eye on interest rates and debt serviceability.
And meanwhile you are reducing the spending capacity of savers with the reduced interest earnings on investment
So its in a M3 vs M1 sense. But even in this case those payments all increase spending power. If at step 2 the institution sells for a depositor then there is a credit to their M3 account. If its for the institution then that institution holds more cleared funds eventually if they are not spent that becomes profit to be paid out.
And of course 3 is crediting accounts also raising M3.
Finally M1 is a component of M3 anyway.
So your statement which I quoted is simply incorrect.
M3 includes money NOT in circulation….for the reason outlined above
Sure along with money in circulation. But thats simply irrelevant to your claim. When the RBNZ makes a bond purchase the digital equivalent of cash becomes property of a non-government institution and its spending ability goes up. This refutes your statement.
Except as collateral in the reserve accounts it is not available to inject into the market.
You refute nothing….the RBNZ has bought approximately 50 billion in bonds in just over a year (roughly 15% of GDP) …..where is it? It is not circulating in the economy, it is sitting within the RBNZ reserve accounts….an asset swap, as the RBNZ themselves stated. Collateral.
Your being confused by monetary aggregates not behaving in the economy as expected. The turnover rate of money can and does change. For obvious reasons in the last year savings rates went up significantly and that is where the govt income boost ended up. It turned out in net that the balance was about right and there has only been a small decrease in employment. But knowing how these transactions work its absolutely clear non-govt institutions spending power went up. Just because your idea about how spending works is wrong doesn't mean the aggregates are wrong.
Thanks Nic the NZer. I'll read that a number of times, and pick up different points each time, and finally I won't see through the glass darkly as the saying goes.
If housing Cost's were put back in the CPI inflation would measured at 3 to 4% and the Reserve bank would have to put interest rates up to counter the oversupply of money.But then in an anaemic world economy it would make it harder for NZ to trade as our $ would go up as well. Making exports dearer.
The link covers what is and isn't counted in CPI measures.
If its a case of putting back in these items at which time was CPI 'correctly' measured?
While 3-4% would be high if the RBNZ could get inflation inside the 2-3% band it would be meeting its present inflation targets.