If labou greens tpm, and National act both ruled Winston out, but neither party got to 61 seats, and Winston held the balance could a government be formed without nzf?
Sure. It is a minority government. Very common in NZ.
Ultimately politics in NZ is largely governed by legislation, and that doesn’t change much. Apart from the finance side, ie raising taxes and spending. The budget (ie supply) legislation are the only acts that actually have to pass parliament a at least once per year. The tax legislation can largely be left to roll over.
Most of our governments since 1996 have been minority governments. They usually have confidence and supply agreements with other parties in parliament to pass supply legislation. But that isn’t necessary. It could just be a simple trade off at budget time to get sufficient support to pass supply.
For a government to be formed, following a general election, it must be able to command the support of the majority of MPs in the House of Representatives.[45] This entails having their confidence and the ability to pass supply bills. While it is rare for a single party to have an outright majority, coalitions may be formed between parties,[46] and even a party or coalition with a minority of seats can form a government by maintaining confidence and supply from minor parties.[47] Parties in government are said to have a “mandate” from voters and authority to implement manifestos (although this view has been criticised as being simplistic when applied to coalition arrangements).[48]
Between 1996 and 2020, neither National nor Labour had an absolute majority in Parliament, and for all but two of those years a minority government ruled (however, every government has been led by one or other of the two main parties).[120]
Most of the parliaments since 1996 have been coalitions, 2020 being the only exception. All except for (?) 1996 had confidence and supply agreements with other parties. Usually with an ability to withdraw at any point.
The scenario you’re pointing to is effectively the normal.
Of course forcing kiwis to go back to the general election to elect legislators, which not passing supply bills would trigger, is very unlikely to favour intransigent parties or politicians. I’d expect that politicians who did force unnecessary elections or even impede Parliament in legislating would typically get the bums rush either as a electorate seat or as a party vote. That is pretty much what has happened whenever something like that has occurred.
So there is a lot of pressure on politicians to pass supply bills and confidence legislation.
"Most of the parliaments since 1996 have been coalitions, 2020 being the only exception."
So telling. Labour's landslide victory in 2020 has now had its consequences….
Three ministers in the past two months alone have been relieved of their portfolios and two of them resigned from parliament. The third is still there but demoted to the back benches. While their 'misdeeds' did not constitute serious miscarriages of conduct (although one is facing a police charge likely to cop a solid fine), together they have brought the government’s reputation into disrepute. A level of arrogance was clearly evident in all three cases.
The moral of the story: it is better not to win an election by a massive landslide.
"Kiri Allen is a text book example of serious misconduct."
That was the intention of my bracketed comment so we are on the same page.
I still have compassion for her though. I can just imagine the shit she has had to put up with over the years… not to mention the cancer and the shock of a broken relationship.
I think the issue is whether we can have a minority government with no C/S agreement. Afaik, that hasn't happened before. I assume it's technically possible, but is it likely? Does this come down to the Governor General agreeing that the minority govt with no C/S would be stable enough?
Hard to see NZF offering a L/G coalition C/S. Maybe they would offer N/ACT? But who knows with Peters.
I'm not following. Do you mean a N minority govt with C/S from both ACT and NZF? i.e. Peters' play is he will only offer C/S if Nat refuse ACT a coalition deal
Yes. His play is to rule out giving c and s to a NACT coalition (and Seymour knows it). Thus attract votes from centrists who do not want ACT in government.
ie take votes from National to NZF, making a Nat/Act coalition unable to have 61+ seats.
Act wants Nat to rule out NZF because they don't want those centrist populists to constrain Act to keep draining votes from National and hopefully driving National into oblivion (eventually).
National wants the option to pick and choose, because they would like to pull nutbar votes so that they remain as the coalition lead into the future. It is hard to see any other basis for National apart from a small-conservatism focus.
In 2005 Winston's excuse for supporting Clark was indeed a "Mexican stand-off" like that.
And that's why "rule in/out" is meaningless. Would a party force another election? No, because they would lose votes for sure. So in the end they deal.
At a possible 60-60 somebody would have to cave rather than face the voters.
NZF could try and negotiate an abstention agreement e.g. Nat/ACT 58, NZF 7, all others 55. So, minority government 58-55.
I'm no constitutional lawyer, but in those circumstances the G-G should probably say "keep talking". With no majority, the government would be at risk of falling as soon as NZF members object to the first budget or major legislation.
(Parties have abstained in the past – like the Greens – but only after a majority has already been found).
Winston and his army of the dead – resurrected and wheeled out at every election- is quite happy to simply stuff up anything to do with National since the winebox affair. He only needs to take votes away from them and ACT to be victorious. And he will. He siphons off whoever thinks he's talking their language and it changes at every election. He's like a puppet master… and there's no show without punch
Asked if National must rule Peters out, or he would not sit around the Cabinet table with National either, Seymour set it in stone:
“Yeah, I think that's pretty clear. There's no way that you're going to solve the problems that New Zealand needs to solve when you've got someone who's had so many chances and screwed it up so many times before.”
The move puts National’s king into check. Christopher Luxon’s resolute refusal to rule out WWW (Working With Winston) risks making him look impotent if National’s only real path to power – Seymour – has made the move for him.
This game of bluff & double-bluff will keep folks guessing awhile. Nobody will believe any transient position is durable – the trick is to fool enough people into believing the political leader means what they say at the time. Impressions are ephemeral but they seem to have sufficient currency for tactical effect.
The joke would be on Luxon and Seymour if they came up with the same situation as in 2017.
It is a risky business putting all your cards on the table earlier than you need to.
I don't think NZ First will actually get back into parliament this time but on the other hand you can never completely count out Winston, he's been out before and has come back. Enough uncertainty to get National's blood pressure rising a bit.
It is a risky business putting all your cards on the table earlier than you need to.
Yes risky and not sensible in my view.
It makes me wonder why the parties have ruled out coalitions with this or that party and presumably they think by doing this it gives them the high ground, moral or otherwise. In the ACT case I think it is is to nudge the Nats into wondering if they should position themselves as centrists/rightists or rightists.
Another point about ruling things out now and then being faced with a possibly sensible and interesting coalition chance that to make a move gives the MSM easy pickings to divert…
ie
‘you said on XYZ that you were not going to enter into a coalition, now you are……..
did you mislead voters/supporters?
And on it goes…..
Remember that Luxon is still polling lower than Judith Collins was …so no matter what the Nats are saying about coalitions it's a long long way from any of those 2 parties being a done deal yet.
Interviewers keep taking this "rule out" nonsense at face value, instead of asking the only question that really matters:
"If National, ACT and NZF have 61+ seats, do you deal or not deal?"
For all 3 leaders the answer is "deal". The precise terms of the deal would be up for debate but even having talks would make "rule out" meaningless.
If you're in the room talking, then by definition you don't "rule out". Everything else is dishonest posturing, and if political reporters don't understand that, they're in the wrong job.
See 2005 if you've forgotten. No bauble, no way = nice bauble, thank you.
Unfortunately, NZ is far more like the US in terms of the economic position of it's two main parties – Robert Reich in an interesting piece in todays Guardian nails the political consensus in NZ pefectly:
In National party circles, the monied interests have preached the snake oil of supply-side economics, which legitimized giant tax cuts going mostly to the rich and large corporations.
Those tax cuts have fueled giant profits in the biggest firms and financial institutions, and stoked a surge in wealth for the rich but did literally nothing for average working people. Nothing trickled down.
In Labour party circles, the monied interests have used neoliberalism – which has called for deregulation, privatization, free trade and the domination of finance over the economy. This orthodoxy pervades the Ardern/Hipkins administrations. The result was similar to that of supply-side economics: wealth surged to the top, but average working people remained stuck in the mud.
NZ has nothing like the Movimiento Sumar or a populist left wing politician like Diaz. We've got two parties whose fundamental approach amounts to National and ACT wanting to strengthen plutocratic crony capitalism and Labour whose sole aim is a desire to administer plutocratic crony capitalism in a way that is a bit better for everyone else.
Labour's political strategy has been to present as the alternative National Party in accord with the formula that Helen Clark implemented successfully. Her success was due to rapport with her Nat-voting parents.
Simulations are extremely powerful in mass-psychology, so one can credit Labour with a degree of political sophistication in using one. Problem is, usage has driven down it's poll rating in a more or less continuous slide since the last election.
Causal explanation of this effect requires focus on results – something of a fatal flaw for Labour. Their vision of the future remains Twyfordian…
I was more focused on whether National's vote holds up when Luxon's poor media performances, and anti worker policies are amplified during the election campaign.
"So…. What happened? During the last weeks of the campaign, the media finally and belatedly turned its attention away from the failings of the government. The arrogant gaffes by the PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo began to occur in the media spotlight:"
National can see it’s chances of winning the election shrinking by the day as a result of their duplicity. But when they lose, which lesson will they learn?
Given the choice, the Maori Party would undoubtedly end up supporting a Labour-led government. Even if the MPs would prefer National, they will be taking the decision to their people – people who have never, ever supported a National government
It is, quite simply, the most complex management position known as it is non-specialist. JK is a specialist financier and, in that position, is probably quite good but as PM he’s going to be far out of his depth as his knowledge of everything else won’t measure up
Quotes from the Standard in the lead up to the 2008 election. Lets not make the same mistake as we did in 2008 where it was assumed Key would get demolished in the debates by Clark, and National's support would collapse in the capaign.
It didn't and it won't in 2023. This is going to be a close election.
I really like Reich and it's great that a former labour secretary gets to see US labour strengthened again in his professional lifetime.
But it's not reasonable to compare the New Zealand economy to that of the United States.
New Zealand over the last three years has had one of the largest and deepest government interventions by the state into the economy in the developed world. Particularly as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of state income. Our version of 'mailing cheques' was to both secure wages and support all businesses at the same time.
If you look at Labour's investment into energy transition in Fonterra, Synlait and Glenbrook Steel, they have taken the equivalent of the CO2 production of all cars in the South Island into electricity. These kinds of intervention matter far more than in the United States because our company size is far more concentrated.
Doing a beatdown of this Labour government is shooting ducks in a barrel. But comparing our scale and specificity of government economic management to that of Biden's isn't effective.
I think that Labour's crisis management has been extremely effective – you only have to look at the catastrophe engulfing the average Joe in the UK to realise how well protected our people have been when compared to the raging incompetence and corruption of the UK Tories.
But I think it stands that Labour's interventions are seen as entirely crisi driven deviations from an absolute establishment lock step on supply side/neoliberal economics. What I'd like to see from Labour is the courage to frankly break some of the self-imposed monetrist rules that have dominated NZ economically for the last forty years.
The key political appeal of the Movimiento Sumar is is offers an alternative to orthodoxy that isn't fascist adjacent. The ideal party for that sort of economic break in NZ should be the Greens, but they are far too easily distracted by fighting their end of the culture wars and engaging in performative common room Marxism to be credible on economic matters.
The ideal party for that sort of economic break in NZ should be the Greens
That's my vision from 32 years ago, which prompted me to join their economic policy working group. The only notable improvement on the basis we laid for the GP came from Russel Norman's framing: green shoots as symbols for a resilient economy.
Each business emerging from sustainability praxis applied in the neolib context is a working example of how to do the transition. Ongoing failure of the GP to inform the voters is due to factors you mention plus innate idiocy of the MPs.
European Greens seem to much more interested in deep organising and broad based activism than NZ Greens, who to be fair are as addicted to exactly the same sort of elite consensus, elite cadre politics as all the other parties.
But what it really amounts to typical NZ senior management. Asleep at the wheel, unaware of what is happening, and completely reactive.
It takes a reputationally damaging scandal of dude re-writing contracted copy to bring changes to online news oversight. It takes a road tragedy for dangerous roads – flagged for years in reports as needing fixing – to be upgraded. it takes someone going troppo with a weapon for changes to occur in mental health. It goes on and on in this country.
None of this would particularly matter if the people at the top were ever held accountable. But they never are. Theses people draw obscene salaries and bloviate for ever about "leadership" and "vision" and never deliver anything or prevent anything.
That is what really grates – taking huge salaries to be teflon dick suckers who dodge their responsibilities.
Certainly Chair Walden's reaction was far more measured talking about the affected reporter than CE Thompson who just went off at him when the news broke.
Yeah, I've made that point myself often enough too. Accountability is a taboo notion and has long been the bedrock reality-aversion upon which National and Labour have developed their collusion strategy.
Commentators here seem to prefer the delusional sideshow of apparent competition between the two; small things amuse small minds. Yet the essence of democracy lies in consensual decision-making even when tribal. You can see how their collusion has become multi-generational as soon as you discern the pattern of accountability-evasion that the left & right share in common.
The control system's puppeteering of left & right keeps kiddie voters enthralled. Thrall is the old anglo-saxon word for slave. Leftists & rightists are slaves to the system while believing they have freedom to choose their future.
Gotta say the political poll analysis is pretty damn poor atm. Lots of noise about leaders etc and not much looking at the left right split.
Currently the right side is polling in the region of 48% which seems to be the high watermark to me given that's about as good as it got during peak John Key the only difference between then and now is that a good sized chunk of the right vote have shifted over to ACT. This will potentially shunt NZ much further to the right than would be typical under previous National led governments. Potentially Act emerges from here on out as a genuine coalition partner moving forward with a decent chunk of embedded vote similar to the Greens.
The left vote is shifting around a bit between the minor parties but Labour are going to have to work pretty hard to get some vote back off National to push them back down closer to 30%. But by no means impossible.
The real risk I can see is that the torrent of negative commentary will result in Labour turnout falling away which would make a Nat Act coalition much more likely.
You're making the right point but glossing over the differential. Last night my quick count showed a left/right differential of around 10% – other commentators ought to run their own check on that.
That leftists have recently alienated so many floating centrists seems rather astonishing and I'm not surprised nobody onsite here has explained how they did it…
Alienation of floating voters occurs over time, with or without cause.
Some might say a lot has happened in this 6 years (mosque killings – hate speech law debate, White Island, the pandemic*, exposure of our health system issues, disruption of the global supply chain*, our property market economy still continuing to fail to deliver affordable homes, war in Europe*, the arrival of super power conflict in our region, social conservatives born again in defence of cisgender womenkind, climate change getting real*, National/ACT/NZF playing fear of the Tiriti and UNDRIP card.
And then the return of inflation* and the pain resulting from economic orthodoxy management.
Does incrementalism offer reassurance in such a time?
Does incrementalism offer reassurance in such a time?
Not to me, but I can see it reassuring most voters. Stasis in mass psychology is evident in normalcy. When the world surrounding you presents alarming changes, the typical mainstreamer pretends all is good. Then it gets down to the real/surreal ratio within the mind of each voter.
It's realistic to see a potential in most humans to get real when their survival necessitates a change of stance in the general direction of getting a grip on things. Complacency shifts them away from that grounding into popular delusions. Neolib hegemony is prolonged by masses taking refuge in normalcy. Safety in numbers they think. We ought to be pragmatic & accept their natural idiocy as realistic to the extent that incrementalism reassures them. Incremental changes seem adaptable to them…
The reaction on my social media to Luxon's embracing of Chinese money was astonishing. Sinophobia is a really big thing in NZ. And that is Labour's challenge. Whenever NACT's policies are discussed the public recoils from them. But our media is addicted to big house court politics and gossip, so prefers a succession of "scandals" where they can interview the dire array of the usual suspects and talking heads that pass for opinion in this country and demonstrate how savvy they are to discussing policies.
So Labour need to cut out the opportunites for a feckless media hungry for a scandal and a narrative to literally make shit up amongst themselves and focus hard on policy. They also need to come up with some sort of decent electoral lolly – offering themselves to the electorate as the party of fiscal prudence will see then annihilated at the polls, because it is impossible to shift the dial on the zombie media narrative that National are better economic managers.
The real risk I can see is that the torrent of negative commentary will result in Labour turnout falling away which would make a Nat Act coalition much more likely.
Pretty sure that's the plan from some in media, hears looking at you Newshub
The second chart gives an estimate of the split between groupings – neither reach 50%, and uncertainty may mean the groups are closer (or further apart) than in the table. The "Other" category is above 5%, but none of NZ First, TOP or New Conservatives appear close to the threshold themselves
Former Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has alleged there is a $20 billion hole in the Government’s revenue as a result of the weakening economy… Act leader David Seymour put out his own press statement alleging the hole was closer to $30b – a figure Robertson also denied.
Doesn't matter how big the real/imaginary pothole is. Govt can manufacture imaginary money to fill it whenever they feel like it, which then becomes real the instant they use it – quantitative easing is now a traditional option.
I try to illuminate deeper dimensions of situations. Seems necessary when so many others just go with the superficial aspects. There are times when superficialities are relevant & informative enough to be the communal focus but there's often shared value in going deeper instead – or as well.
My political agenda trended towards deep Green after originating in 1968 (self-awareness, identity formation). Communal context makes that view essential for survival now. Leftists are gradually figuring this out but since most Greens are a paler shade we have a spectrum in play…
The crux of that is how well the simulation (deployment of the pothole theory of economic credibility) works as a political ploy. Gamesters use a ploy if they believe it makes them competititive.
So the two rightist dinosaurs, young & old, compete with each other to see who can utter the loudest roar. Quants impress folks, and the largest number used is the most effective. Big is Good. That's why Mitre 10 Mega used it as focus slogan in their long corporate ad campaign earlier this century.
Labour thinks like this too but must mask it to seem different to the right – thus Grant refusing to measure the size of the (real/imaginal) pothole in his budgeting & spending plan for govt services.
The forecast deficit for the next 3 years was $18B, but there has been a decline in company tax revenue. So the Treasury pre election update is impacted.
It's not a hole in revenue, it's an increase in forecast deficit for the three years ahead because of the decline in company tax revenue.
Low end figures Peters (18+2) and high end Seymour (18+ 2+10).
Department heads were recently with the Finance Minister presumably to look at spending priorities/management thereof – to assist the returning/incoming government.
Frank you ask how Labour has offended the middle 10% That assumes they have!!
This small mind sees money being spent by the right to blow up Law and Order. National using media to magnify, and Act supporting the gun lobby. What an unholy alliance making people fearful.
The media have allowed Luxon a fairly painless ride, and now he has Mary Lambie giving him actor polish. Polishing a turd seems to be a practice of the right, looking at some of their members. sarc Pun intended.
What are you doing Frank? Showing intellectual superiority? Or just bloody stirring?
This election is critical, and yes our choices are not what we hoped, but incremental changes stick, and the dial has been moved in spite of moaning and outright bloody denials by some. We need unity, not egos throwing rocks from the sideline.
The one thing that will sink us is infighting, white anting and failure to look at the goals as people carry out inquisitions about supposed failure and spend energy examining their own navels. Also refusing to see how markets are now impacting our budget and receipts blaming Labour for a world downturn.
There is a price to pay for our support of workers through supporting businesses through covid to keep employment up. Business took advantage. Profits soared.
Every time workers make small progress the rules of Capitalism bite. Worse it wants more carbon based living, so we are battling that moar roads mentality.
We are all tired, but there have been massive wins. We need to list those and what is in the pipeline.
This election is too important to lose, and those saying Labour and National "are the same" after all that has gone down and been dealt with in the last 6 years should be ashamed. That is such superficial rubbish.
National would have let covid rip, they probably would have let mycoplasma bovis become endemic, they would not have improve workers conditions and pay. Abortion would still be a crime, and medical cannabis a dream. Housing would be stymied by covenants and Councils, and health run down for Private take overs, as would education.
Those saying both are the same side of one coin can p…. off. I prefer the kinder face.
Labour Green Ti Parti Maori, unite in the face of self seeking evil. Believe we can change the outcome. It is not ordained by the Upper Room. Voters vote like your life depends on it… as it well may.
No worries Patricia. Just to explain what I wrote in 4.1 a little more, I see that significant gap that has opened in recent months between the leftist parties & the rightist parties as being due to lack of resonance in the minds of floaters – due to leftist parties not directing their marketing strategies at those voters.
The left assumes floaters are susceptible to leftist values which is partially true – however floaters seem to me more susceptible to a compelling positive alternative. It's a marketing psych thing. You know how Ad has once or twice presented a persuasive list of progressive accomplishments of the past two terms? Good evidence to the credit of Labour/Greens I thought – but never commented here to that effect since I see it as irrelevant to the floater psyche.
Hipkins, responding to poll subsidence in recent months, keeps implying that they'll get around to marketing one day soon. Maybe, and it may even work. Likewise the Greens. However I suspect too little too late. I do try to help – by pointing out what the two leftist parties continue to do wrong in the hope that the word will spread until they realise they need to do it better. Can't fix it when their complacency makes them believe they're already doing the right thing…
it's a lazy, self-serving political analysis that imo does indeed play into people not voting. I see it from people who say they don't have anyone to vote for, as if voting is about personal gratification. Maybe they feel less alone if other people don't vote too.
It's an leftie own goal and ignorant af about the real world impacts. On climate alone it's absolutely insane.
" I see it from people who say they don't have anyone to vote for, as if voting is about personal gratification. "
Speaking for myself (and from what I have been told by those close to me) the contrary is true….the gratification sought is a better society/run country, and the offers all fall far short.
If all the offers are detrimental why would any sane person vote FOR them?
Not at all….it is little to ask, but it may take some vision and competence to deliver…something that has been missing from our so called leadership for far too long.
Encourage circular business relationships, where the outputs of one business are the inputs to another business, and engage in planning for the future siting of such businesses near/next to each other where appropriate and practical. (1.18)
Promote a fair competitive environment for Aotearoa New Zealand businesses that removes outright competition with products and services from countries with poor human and worker rights records and with poor environmental practices. (2.1)
Retain or impose tariffs, quotas or bans where useful to prevent unfair competition caused by unjust or unsustainable production practices in the country of origin. (4.1)
Strengthen controls on foreign investment in Aotearoa New Zealand to minimise the negative effects of speculative and other non-productive foreign investment. (4.5)
because sometimes we vote for the least worse option to stop the much worse option gaining power.
Strategically, it's easier to shift NZ politics to something better from a centre left govt than from a RW one. Additionally, a centre left government does good things even if it's not enough.
Speaking for myself (and from what I have been told by those close to me) the contrary is true….the gratification sought is a better society/run country…
Same. I'm constantly surprised by the people for whom a good cultural fit or sense of belonging is a prerequisite for voting at all.
I didn't suggest that at all. Just explain your thinking Pat, it gets tedious otherwise and you know I have little patience for people making shit up about my views.
When compromise is seen as a dirty word, Politics becomes impossible, because that is what it is, a compromise, and as it deals with humans it will never be perfect. So very painful for a perfectionist.
Occasionally I get asked what the difference between the nats and labour is , my basic answer is national always make the rich richer and take away workers rights, labour trust to fix both those things
It will be a tight and volatile election, all parties seem to fighting for their existence in one form or another. Winston won’t work with NZ Labour, Seymour won’t work with Winston, Baldrick might work with Winston. David Parker and Robbo are not impressed with the Cap’n’s tacking…Let's hope that old wish prevails…NZF get 4.9%. And that the various fruitcake parties like Matt King’s Democracy NZ waste a few % of votes also.
The strategic approach would have been Labour/Green/TPM all supporting fairer tax policy, and laying it out for the electorate. Cap’n blew, it so it is all on. I have been opposing dirty, filthy, tories since Muldoon, so one more campaign won’t bother me, but it just such a waste of energy in what should be “a land of plenty.”
If Labour/Green/TPM are more than NACT then it is good that NZF get 4.9%. But otherwise NZF at 5.0% might prevent a NACT government (Peters preference is a National minority government with c and s from both ACT and NZF).
Yes, subtle difference, and on how much influence Act has with National. This election campaign has been going by proxy means since COVID and the occupation of Parliament grounds really.
The far right Heritage Foundation created a platform for Trump that plots an authoritarian take-over of the country.
Donald Trump nearly destroyed American democracy in his first term in office. If he is reelected, he plans to try to finish the job. This isn’t a matter of speculation; it’s a virtual certainty.
[…]
The specific goals of the project are discussed in great detail in the ninth edition of the Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership. First published in 1981, the Mandate is designed to serve as a guide for conservative governance, and is updated periodically, usually at the outset of each presidential administration. The current version totals some 920 pages.
If you lack the stomach to plow through the entire tome, you can turn to a two-page preface written by Paul Dans, Project 2025’s director who served as the Trump Administration’s Chief of Staff for the Office of Personnel Management. Dans outlines the project’s four basic objectives, which he calls its “four pillars.” These are: the development of a broad “policy agenda” for the next rightwing President to implement; the construction of a “personnel database” to assist the President in making staffing decisions; the creation of a “Presidential Academy” to train the next set of high-level government appointees; and a “Playbook” for the first 180 days of the next administration.
One of the project’s more disturbing aims is to bring all federal agencies under direct presidential control, ending the operational independence not only of the Department of Justice and the FBI, but also the Federal Reserve, which oversees the banking industry and regulates interest rates; the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which oversees television, radio, and the Internet; and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which enforces antitrust and consumer protection laws.
A blend of irony & paradox. The deep-state myth is potent enough to serve as alt-reality. Trump as social justice warrior is the operational image used. Freedom fighter is a trad button to push in the psyche – the difference to Che is Don uses money not gun. So that agenda which brought Reagan to power is the dark side of the paradox, in which the Jungian shadow makes the user act just like the opposing threat…
Yesterday was World Overshoot day. New Zealand's country specific Overshoot date was in April.
Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year.
that deserves a post. My problem is I don't understand why people believe that this year's cost of living crisis is more important. Do they not believe that we are in dire straights with climate and ecology?
A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 5, 2024 thru Sat, May 11, 2024. (Unfortunate) Story of the week "Grief that stops at despair is an ending that I and many others, most notably ...
Last night the largest solar storm in decades resulted in Aurorae being seen across Aotearoa, causing many to ask why?Why was the sky pink? What was all this stuff about the power grid? Have we, as so many have wondered since the election, reached the end of days?I had a ...
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Oliver Hartwich writes – Cast your mind back to mid-December. A new Prime Minister had just been sworn in, the new Government started its 100-day programme, and Christmas was only days away.Amid all the haste, a report landed that would have deserved our attention.I am talking about the ...
TL;DR: An unseasonally early icy blast at the same time as some long-overdue maintenance almost caused Aotearoa-NZ’s electricity system to black out this week. That’s because a quadropoly of gentailers1 have prioritised paying dividends from their rising profits and adding debt over investing in 1.5 GigaWatts of new wind farms ...
Hi,Before we crack into today’s Webworm, I wanted to acknowledge the fact that Israel is pushing into Rafah. Over 100,000 Palestinians are now attempting to flee the one place that was deemed “safe”.Trouble is, the place they’re fleeing to is already destroyed. Total annihilation is the end goal here.“Israel is ...
‘It has been said that figures rule the world. Maybe. I am quite sure that it is figures which show us whether it is being ruled well or badly.’ GoetheI was struck at a recent conference on equity for the elderly, how many presenters implicitly relied upon Statistics New Zealand. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveReporting on defence spending late last year, RNZ said the coalition government will have to make some tough calls this term to help the force address staff shortages and ageing infrastructure. “These are huge, huge amounts of government spending. It’s a significant proportion of the government’s ...
Peter Dunne writes – I am always wary when I hear that the Controller and Auditor-General has commented on or made recommendations to the government about an issue of public policy that does not relate strictly to public expenditure. According to the legislation, the role of the Controller ...
How Labour’s and National’s failure to move beyond neoliberalism has brought NZ to the brink of economic and cultural chaos Chris Trotter writes – TO START LOSING, so soon after you won, requires a special kind of political incompetence. At the heart of this Coalition ...
And why did the Crown not challenge the Tribunal’s jurisdiction? Gary Judd writes – Retired District Court Judge, David Harvey, has posted on his A Halflings View Substack an excellent summary of Justice Isacs’ judgment declining to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result?As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and ...
Macklemore isn’t someone I’d usually think about. Sure I liked his big hit from a few years back, everybody did it was catchy and cool with some memorable lines. But if I was going to think of artists who might speak out on political matters or world events, he wouldn’t ...
Another week goes by in the Luxon government’s efforts to roll back the past 70 years of social progress. The school lunches programme is to be downgraded by $107 million, and women need bother their heads no longer about pay equity, let alone expect ACC to provide adequate sexual violence ...
Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
Open access notablesA Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future:Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
Alwyn Poole writes – After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
Eric Crampton writes – A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
PNG Post-Courier New Zealand High Commissioner Peter Zwart and PNG Defence Minister Dr Billy Joseph welcomed a C-130 Hercules to Port Moresby this week to support Papua New Guinea’s response to the March 24 earthquake and recent severe flooding. “Papua New Guinea has requested New Zealand’s assistance to transport emergency ...
Grub Street King Luxon rode through the streets Of King’s Landing, and was troubled By the sight of hungry urchins in the mud. “Who would be the best of my Lords To deal with this negative optic?” He pondered. The answer came to him instantly. “Seymour!” he said to himself. ...
“The Bill does not provide environmental protection, good quality decision making, certainty, public participation or speed. It should be withdrawn.” ...
RNZ News Television New Zealand has breached its collective agreement with the E tū union when deciding on discontinuing programmes, the Employment Relations Authority has ruled. It was announced in March that 68 staff members who work for news programmes Midday and Tonight, consumer justice programme Fair Go, current affairs ...
Asia Pacific Report Barangay New Zealand’s Rene Molina has interviewed the country’s first Filipino Green MP Francisco Hernandez who was sworn into Parliament yesterday as the party’s latest member. This is the first interview with Hernandez who replaces former Green Party co-leader James Shaw after his retirement from politics to ...
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https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300941951/act-categorically-rules-out-working-with-winston-peters-and-nz-first
Theoretical question?
If labou greens tpm, and National act both ruled Winston out, but neither party got to 61 seats, and Winston held the balance could a government be formed without nzf?
Sure. It is a minority government. Very common in NZ.
Ultimately politics in NZ is largely governed by legislation, and that doesn’t change much. Apart from the finance side, ie raising taxes and spending. The budget (ie supply) legislation are the only acts that actually have to pass parliament a at least once per year. The tax legislation can largely be left to roll over.
Most of our governments since 1996 have been minority governments. They usually have confidence and supply agreements with other parties in parliament to pass supply legislation. But that isn’t necessary. It could just be a simple trade off at budget time to get sufficient support to pass supply.
Wikipedia
Most of the parliaments since 1996 have been coalitions, 2020 being the only exception. All except for (?) 1996 had confidence and supply agreements with other parties. Usually with an ability to withdraw at any point.
The scenario you’re pointing to is effectively the normal.
Of course forcing kiwis to go back to the general election to elect legislators, which not passing supply bills would trigger, is very unlikely to favour intransigent parties or politicians. I’d expect that politicians who did force unnecessary elections or even impede Parliament in legislating would typically get the bums rush either as a electorate seat or as a party vote. That is pretty much what has happened whenever something like that has occurred.
So there is a lot of pressure on politicians to pass supply bills and confidence legislation.
So telling. Labour's landslide victory in 2020 has now had its consequences….
Three ministers in the past two months alone have been relieved of their portfolios and two of them resigned from parliament. The third is still there but demoted to the back benches. While their 'misdeeds' did not constitute serious miscarriages of conduct (although one is facing a police charge likely to cop a solid fine), together they have brought the government’s reputation into disrepute. A level of arrogance was clearly evident in all three cases.
The moral of the story: it is better not to win an election by a massive landslide.
Cmon, Kiri Allen is a text book example of serious misconduct.
Worse than bashing a 13 yr old…?
Or worse than being a former mercenary/killer for hire…?
Get a grip with yr serious misconduct claims…
Wot would you call those two examples above…?
The usual Tory MP…
Oh wait I forgot what the name of someone who misleads the country and uses the name of a dead child – fraud?
"Kiri Allen is a text book example of serious misconduct."
That was the intention of my bracketed comment so we are on the same page.
I still have compassion for her though. I can just imagine the shit she has had to put up with over the years… not to mention the cancer and the shock of a broken relationship.
I think the issue is whether we can have a minority government with no C/S agreement. Afaik, that hasn't happened before. I assume it's technically possible, but is it likely? Does this come down to the Governor General agreeing that the minority govt with no C/S would be stable enough?
Hard to see NZF offering a L/G coalition C/S. Maybe they would offer N/ACT? But who knows with Peters.
I think NZF's gambit is to offer a National minority government c and s, but not a NACT one.
Why would National take that rather than a N minority govt with ACT C/S? Seems risking from Peters.
Er, because they would need both (ACT and NZF) to have a majority.
I'm not following. Do you mean a N minority govt with C/S from both ACT and NZF? i.e. Peters' play is he will only offer C/S if Nat refuse ACT a coalition deal
Yes. His play is to rule out giving c and s to a NACT coalition (and Seymour knows it). Thus attract votes from centrists who do not want ACT in government.
ie take votes from National to NZF, making a Nat/Act coalition unable to have 61+ seats.
Act wants Nat to rule out NZF because they don't want those centrist populists to constrain Act to keep draining votes from National and hopefully driving National into oblivion (eventually).
National wants the option to pick and choose, because they would like to pull nutbar votes so that they remain as the coalition lead into the future. It is hard to see any other basis for National apart from a small-conservatism focus.
Yip what nact get 60 seats but no one will give them confidence and supply
In 2005 Winston's excuse for supporting Clark was indeed a "Mexican stand-off" like that.
And that's why "rule in/out" is meaningless. Would a party force another election? No, because they would lose votes for sure. So in the end they deal.
At a possible 60-60 somebody would have to cave rather than face the voters.
NZF could try and negotiate an abstention agreement e.g. Nat/ACT 58, NZF 7, all others 55. So, minority government 58-55.
I'm no constitutional lawyer, but in those circumstances the G-G should probably say "keep talking". With no majority, the government would be at risk of falling as soon as NZF members object to the first budget or major legislation.
(Parties have abstained in the past – like the Greens – but only after a majority has already been found).
ok, but in that situation it could also be a L/NZF minority govt with C/S from TPM and GP as needed (depending on numbers)?
Peters would go with the larger party that has the most seats? Or the largest coalition?
He would go with the party that would give him the biggest pile of baubles.
As in 1996 with National, 2005 with Labour and 2017 with Labour again. Most seats? Largest coalition? Nah. Whoever gives him the most for his votes.
Winston and his army of the dead – resurrected and wheeled out at every election- is quite happy to simply stuff up anything to do with National since the winebox affair. He only needs to take votes away from them and ACT to be victorious. And he will. He siphons off whoever thinks he's talking their language and it changes at every election. He's like a puppet master… and there's no show without punch
Tova has framed it well:
This game of bluff & double-bluff will keep folks guessing awhile. Nobody will believe any transient position is durable – the trick is to fool enough people into believing the political leader means what they say at the time. Impressions are ephemeral but they seem to have sufficient currency for tactical effect.
The joke would be on Luxon and Seymour if they came up with the same situation as in 2017.
It is a risky business putting all your cards on the table earlier than you need to.
I don't think NZ First will actually get back into parliament this time but on the other hand you can never completely count out Winston, he's been out before and has come back. Enough uncertainty to get National's blood pressure rising a bit.
Yes risky and not sensible in my view.
It makes me wonder why the parties have ruled out coalitions with this or that party and presumably they think by doing this it gives them the high ground, moral or otherwise. In the ACT case I think it is is to nudge the Nats into wondering if they should position themselves as centrists/rightists or rightists.
Another point about ruling things out now and then being faced with a possibly sensible and interesting coalition chance that to make a move gives the MSM easy pickings to divert…
ie
‘you said on XYZ that you were not going to enter into a coalition, now you are……..
did you mislead voters/supporters?
And on it goes…..
Oh yes, the media positively LOVE the rule-in rule-out game. Lisa Owens spends most of her time on air doing it.
I think it is merely tiresome and distracting people from policy.
Remember that Luxon is still polling lower than Judith Collins was …so no matter what the Nats are saying about coalitions it's a long long way from any of those 2 parties being a done deal yet.
Interviewers keep taking this "rule out" nonsense at face value, instead of asking the only question that really matters:
"If National, ACT and NZF have 61+ seats, do you deal or not deal?"
For all 3 leaders the answer is "deal". The precise terms of the deal would be up for debate but even having talks would make "rule out" meaningless.
If you're in the room talking, then by definition you don't "rule out". Everything else is dishonest posturing, and if political reporters don't understand that, they're in the wrong job.
See 2005 if you've forgotten. No bauble, no way = nice bauble, thank you.
Interesting piece by Gordon Campbell on result of Spanish election and possible relevance here.
A bit old . apologies if someone has linked previously .
http://werewolf.co.nz/2023/07/gordon-campbell-on-the-lessons-from-spains-election/
Unfortunately, NZ is far more like the US in terms of the economic position of it's two main parties – Robert Reich in an interesting piece in todays Guardian nails the political consensus in NZ pefectly:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/02/bidenomics-is-working-which-means-biden-and-the-democrats-may-win-too
To paraphrase:
In National party circles, the monied interests have preached the snake oil of supply-side economics, which legitimized giant tax cuts going mostly to the rich and large corporations.
Those tax cuts have fueled giant profits in the biggest firms and financial institutions, and stoked a surge in wealth for the rich but did literally nothing for average working people. Nothing trickled down.
In Labour party circles, the monied interests have used neoliberalism – which has called for deregulation, privatization, free trade and the domination of finance over the economy. This orthodoxy pervades the Ardern/Hipkins administrations. The result was similar to that of supply-side economics: wealth surged to the top, but average working people remained stuck in the mud.
NZ has nothing like the Movimiento Sumar or a populist left wing politician like Diaz. We've got two parties whose fundamental approach amounts to National and ACT wanting to strengthen plutocratic crony capitalism and Labour whose sole aim is a desire to administer plutocratic crony capitalism in a way that is a bit better for everyone else.
Labour's political strategy has been to present as the alternative National Party in accord with the formula that Helen Clark implemented successfully. Her success was due to rapport with her Nat-voting parents.
Simulations are extremely powerful in mass-psychology, so one can credit Labour with a degree of political sophistication in using one. Problem is, usage has driven down it's poll rating in a more or less continuous slide since the last election.
Causal explanation of this effect requires focus on results – something of a fatal flaw for Labour. Their vision of the future remains Twyfordian…
I was more focused on whether National's vote holds up when Luxon's poor media performances, and anti worker policies are amplified during the election campaign.
"So…. What happened? During the last weeks of the campaign, the media finally and belatedly turned its attention away from the failings of the government. The arrogant gaffes by the PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo began to occur in the media spotlight:"
Luxon's coming from a pretty low base so its not out of the question that he manages to do better than expected and improve his personal numbers.
Quotes from the Standard in the lead up to the 2008 election. Lets not make the same mistake as we did in 2008 where it was assumed Key would get demolished in the debates by Clark, and National's support would collapse in the capaign.
It didn't and it won't in 2023. This is going to be a close election.
I really like Reich and it's great that a former labour secretary gets to see US labour strengthened again in his professional lifetime.
But it's not reasonable to compare the New Zealand economy to that of the United States.
New Zealand over the last three years has had one of the largest and deepest government interventions by the state into the economy in the developed world. Particularly as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of state income. Our version of 'mailing cheques' was to both secure wages and support all businesses at the same time.
If you look at Labour's investment into energy transition in Fonterra, Synlait and Glenbrook Steel, they have taken the equivalent of the CO2 production of all cars in the South Island into electricity. These kinds of intervention matter far more than in the United States because our company size is far more concentrated.
Doing a beatdown of this Labour government is shooting ducks in a barrel. But comparing our scale and specificity of government economic management to that of Biden's isn't effective.
I think that Labour's crisis management has been extremely effective – you only have to look at the catastrophe engulfing the average Joe in the UK to realise how well protected our people have been when compared to the raging incompetence and corruption of the UK Tories.
But I think it stands that Labour's interventions are seen as entirely crisi driven deviations from an absolute establishment lock step on supply side/neoliberal economics. What I'd like to see from Labour is the courage to frankly break some of the self-imposed monetrist rules that have dominated NZ economically for the last forty years.
The key political appeal of the Movimiento Sumar is is offers an alternative to orthodoxy that isn't fascist adjacent. The ideal party for that sort of economic break in NZ should be the Greens, but they are far too easily distracted by fighting their end of the culture wars and engaging in performative common room Marxism to be credible on economic matters.
Yes I certainly agree that we are well and truly ideologically stuck.
The ideal party for that sort of economic break in NZ should be the Greens
That's my vision from 32 years ago, which prompted me to join their economic policy working group. The only notable improvement on the basis we laid for the GP came from Russel Norman's framing: green shoots as symbols for a resilient economy.
Each business emerging from sustainability praxis applied in the neolib context is a working example of how to do the transition. Ongoing failure of the GP to inform the voters is due to factors you mention plus innate idiocy of the MPs.
Sumar includes the Spanish Green party (Verde) and Diaz has said the she "wants to become the first green president of Spain".
Sorry can't reference this….I'm on my phone about to get on plane.
European Greens seem to much more interested in deep organising and broad based activism than NZ Greens, who to be fair are as addicted to exactly the same sort of elite consensus, elite cadre politics as all the other parties.
But the Greens have very different policies which I am sure they will push for if they were to be in a Lab 31 Gr 12 TPM 5 coalition.
You know, you can talk bucketloads about this RNZ online editing fiasco.
But what it really amounts to typical NZ senior management. Asleep at the wheel, unaware of what is happening, and completely reactive.
It takes a reputationally damaging scandal of dude re-writing contracted copy to bring changes to online news oversight. It takes a road tragedy for dangerous roads – flagged for years in reports as needing fixing – to be upgraded. it takes someone going troppo with a weapon for changes to occur in mental health. It goes on and on in this country.
None of this would particularly matter if the people at the top were ever held accountable. But they never are. Theses people draw obscene salaries and bloviate for ever about "leadership" and "vision" and never deliver anything or prevent anything.
That is what really grates – taking huge salaries to be teflon dick suckers who dodge their responsibilities.
Certainly Chair Walden's reaction was far more measured talking about the affected reporter than CE Thompson who just went off at him when the news broke.
It's Thompson that needs to go out of this.
Yeah, I've made that point myself often enough too. Accountability is a taboo notion and has long been the bedrock reality-aversion upon which National and Labour have developed their collusion strategy.
Commentators here seem to prefer the delusional sideshow of apparent competition between the two; small things amuse small minds. Yet the essence of democracy lies in consensual decision-making even when tribal. You can see how their collusion has become multi-generational as soon as you discern the pattern of accountability-evasion that the left & right share in common.
The control system's puppeteering of left & right keeps kiddie voters enthralled. Thrall is the old anglo-saxon word for slave. Leftists & rightists are slaves to the system while believing they have freedom to choose their future.
Gotta say the political poll analysis is pretty damn poor atm. Lots of noise about leaders etc and not much looking at the left right split.
Currently the right side is polling in the region of 48% which seems to be the high watermark to me given that's about as good as it got during peak John Key the only difference between then and now is that a good sized chunk of the right vote have shifted over to ACT. This will potentially shunt NZ much further to the right than would be typical under previous National led governments. Potentially Act emerges from here on out as a genuine coalition partner moving forward with a decent chunk of embedded vote similar to the Greens.
The left vote is shifting around a bit between the minor parties but Labour are going to have to work pretty hard to get some vote back off National to push them back down closer to 30%. But by no means impossible.
The real risk I can see is that the torrent of negative commentary will result in Labour turnout falling away which would make a Nat Act coalition much more likely.
You're making the right point but glossing over the differential. Last night my quick count showed a left/right differential of around 10% – other commentators ought to run their own check on that.
That leftists have recently alienated so many floating centrists seems rather astonishing and I'm not surprised nobody onsite here has explained how they did it…
Alienation of floating voters occurs over time, with or without cause.
Some might say a lot has happened in this 6 years (mosque killings – hate speech law debate, White Island, the pandemic*, exposure of our health system issues, disruption of the global supply chain*, our property market economy still continuing to fail to deliver affordable homes, war in Europe*, the arrival of super power conflict in our region, social conservatives born again in defence of cisgender womenkind, climate change getting real*, National/ACT/NZF playing fear of the Tiriti and UNDRIP card.
And then the return of inflation* and the pain resulting from economic orthodoxy management.
Does incrementalism offer reassurance in such a time?
Does incrementalism offer reassurance in such a time?
Not to me, but I can see it reassuring most voters. Stasis in mass psychology is evident in normalcy. When the world surrounding you presents alarming changes, the typical mainstreamer pretends all is good. Then it gets down to the real/surreal ratio within the mind of each voter.
It's realistic to see a potential in most humans to get real when their survival necessitates a change of stance in the general direction of getting a grip on things. Complacency shifts them away from that grounding into popular delusions. Neolib hegemony is prolonged by masses taking refuge in normalcy. Safety in numbers they think. We ought to be pragmatic & accept their natural idiocy as realistic to the extent that incrementalism reassures them. Incremental changes seem adaptable to them…
The reaction on my social media to Luxon's embracing of Chinese money was astonishing. Sinophobia is a really big thing in NZ. And that is Labour's challenge. Whenever NACT's policies are discussed the public recoils from them. But our media is addicted to big house court politics and gossip, so prefers a succession of "scandals" where they can interview the dire array of the usual suspects and talking heads that pass for opinion in this country and demonstrate how savvy they are to discussing policies.
So Labour need to cut out the opportunites for a feckless media hungry for a scandal and a narrative to literally make shit up amongst themselves and focus hard on policy. They also need to come up with some sort of decent electoral lolly – offering themselves to the electorate as the party of fiscal prudence will see then annihilated at the polls, because it is impossible to shift the dial on the zombie media narrative that National are better economic managers.
Pretty sure that's the plan from some in media, hears looking at you Newshub
Perhaps you are looking for this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
The second chart gives an estimate of the split between groupings – neither reach 50%, and uncertainty may mean the groups are closer (or further apart) than in the table. The "Other" category is above 5%, but none of NZ First, TOP or New Conservatives appear close to the threshold themselves
Grant has driven his neolib economy into a budgetary pot-hole, but he's refusing to say how big it is: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/public-service-bosses-called-in-as-government-accounts-plunge-deeper-into-the-red/CKEBIEWIAFA5TBOUCMFXR4YK3Y/
Doesn't matter how big the real/imaginary pothole is. Govt can manufacture imaginary money to fill it whenever they feel like it, which then becomes real the instant they use it – quantitative easing is now a traditional option.
Whats your agenda here DF ?
I try to illuminate deeper dimensions of situations. Seems necessary when so many others just go with the superficial aspects. There are times when superficialities are relevant & informative enough to be the communal focus but there's often shared value in going deeper instead – or as well.
My political agenda trended towards deep Green after originating in 1968 (self-awareness, identity formation). Communal context makes that view essential for survival now. Leftists are gradually figuring this out but since most Greens are a paler shade we have a spectrum in play…
Well…thats as maybe. Hard to say really.
Anyway, I'm actually meaning your linking to a Herald article….specifically some "allegations" by Peters and Seymour.
The crux of that is how well the simulation (deployment of the pothole theory of economic credibility) works as a political ploy. Gamesters use a ploy if they believe it makes them competititive.
So the two rightist dinosaurs, young & old, compete with each other to see who can utter the loudest roar. Quants impress folks, and the largest number used is the most effective. Big is Good. That's why Mitre 10 Mega used it as focus slogan in their long corporate ad campaign earlier this century.
Labour thinks like this too but must mask it to seem different to the right – thus Grant refusing to measure the size of the (real/imaginal) pothole in his budgeting & spending plan for govt services.
It's formally released by Treasury pre election.
The forecast deficit for the next 3 years was $18B, but there has been a decline in company tax revenue. So the Treasury pre election update is impacted.
It's not a hole in revenue, it's an increase in forecast deficit for the three years ahead because of the decline in company tax revenue.
Low end figures Peters (18+2) and high end Seymour (18+ 2+10).
Department heads were recently with the Finance Minister presumably to look at spending priorities/management thereof – to assist the returning/incoming government.
Frank you ask how Labour has offended the middle 10% That assumes they have!!
This small mind sees money being spent by the right to blow up Law and Order. National using media to magnify, and Act supporting the gun lobby. What an unholy alliance making people fearful.
The media have allowed Luxon a fairly painless ride, and now he has Mary Lambie giving him actor polish. Polishing a turd seems to be a practice of the right, looking at some of their members. sarc Pun intended.
What are you doing Frank? Showing intellectual superiority? Or just bloody stirring?
This election is critical, and yes our choices are not what we hoped, but incremental changes stick, and the dial has been moved in spite of moaning and outright bloody denials by some. We need unity, not egos throwing rocks from the sideline.
The one thing that will sink us is infighting, white anting and failure to look at the goals as people carry out inquisitions about supposed failure and spend energy examining their own navels. Also refusing to see how markets are now impacting our budget and receipts blaming Labour for a world downturn.
There is a price to pay for our support of workers through supporting businesses through covid to keep employment up. Business took advantage. Profits soared.
Every time workers make small progress the rules of Capitalism bite. Worse it wants more carbon based living, so we are battling that moar roads mentality.
We are all tired, but there have been massive wins. We need to list those and what is in the pipeline.
This election is too important to lose, and those saying Labour and National "are the same" after all that has gone down and been dealt with in the last 6 years should be ashamed. That is such superficial rubbish.
National would have let covid rip, they probably would have let mycoplasma bovis become endemic, they would not have improve workers conditions and pay. Abortion would still be a crime, and medical cannabis a dream. Housing would be stymied by covenants and Councils, and health run down for Private take overs, as would education.
Those saying both are the same side of one coin can p…. off. I prefer the kinder face.
Labour Green Ti Parti Maori, unite in the face of self seeking evil. Believe we can change the outcome. It is not ordained by the Upper Room. Voters vote like your life depends on it… as it well may.
And onya PB ! The anti-Labour/Green doomers and white-anters are all about this. If not defeatist. Its great you listed some of what Labour have done.
The aforesaid anti's would just prefer to ignore all of that.
Frank you ask how Labour has offended the middle 10% That assumes they have!!
Bremner I scanned my comment (#5) and found no such question!!
Sorry Dennis, that was a mistake with your name. 10% see 4.1
and … we don't need stirring, we need everyone on board, to win this. use your intellect to help with that.
No worries Patricia. Just to explain what I wrote in 4.1 a little more, I see that significant gap that has opened in recent months between the leftist parties & the rightist parties as being due to lack of resonance in the minds of floaters – due to leftist parties not directing their marketing strategies at those voters.
The left assumes floaters are susceptible to leftist values which is partially true – however floaters seem to me more susceptible to a compelling positive alternative. It's a marketing psych thing. You know how Ad has once or twice presented a persuasive list of progressive accomplishments of the past two terms? Good evidence to the credit of Labour/Greens I thought – but never commented here to that effect since I see it as irrelevant to the floater psyche.
Hipkins, responding to poll subsidence in recent months, keeps implying that they'll get around to marketing one day soon. Maybe, and it may even work. Likewise the Greens. However I suspect too little too late. I do try to help – by pointing out what the two leftist parties continue to do wrong in the hope that the word will spread until they realise they need to do it better. Can't fix it when their complacency makes them believe they're already doing the right thing…
What are you doing Frank? Showing intellectual superiority? Or just bloody stirring?
Bremner, what if I'm doing both simultaneously? Are you going to argue that doing so ain't the kiwi way?? Can't see that catching on…
I agree with you PB…… there are far too many people, including lefties on TS, who complain that Lab and Nats are virtually the same-simply not true.
it's a lazy, self-serving political analysis that imo does indeed play into people not voting. I see it from people who say they don't have anyone to vote for, as if voting is about personal gratification. Maybe they feel less alone if other people don't vote too.
It's an leftie own goal and ignorant af about the real world impacts. On climate alone it's absolutely insane.
" I see it from people who say they don't have anyone to vote for, as if voting is about personal gratification. "
Speaking for myself (and from what I have been told by those close to me) the contrary is true….the gratification sought is a better society/run country, and the offers all fall far short.
If all the offers are detrimental why would any sane person vote FOR them?
So tell us what you would like? I have tried to ascertain your position? “detrimental?”
I have stated what I'd like…an improved society/country.
The problem appears to be that the methods proposed fail that test
Pat, I'd like what you'd like.
In your opinion, what are "the methods" that might deliver "an improved society/country", and/or is "the problem" insoluble?
The methods broadly…
Compressed incomes
Increased taxation (with one eye on investment/liquidity)
Increased autarky (with the understanding complete autarky not desirable/possible)
Public ownership (broadly) of infrastructure.
Not much to ask
Could get behind all those broad methods, but it's a lot to ask.
Not at all….it is little to ask, but it may take some vision and competence to deliver…something that has been missing from our so called leadership for far too long.
Some policies that may align with your desired methods:
https://www.greens.org.nz/economic_policy
https://www.greens.org.nz/sustainable_business_policy
https://www.greens.org.nz/housing_policy
https://www.greens.org.nz/trade_and_foreign_investment_policy
[@arkie@8:21 pm]
Could get behind all those policies.
Some may suggest those policies lack vision – not me though.
because sometimes we vote for the least worse option to stop the much worse option gaining power.
Strategically, it's easier to shift NZ politics to something better from a centre left govt than from a RW one. Additionally, a centre left government does good things even if it's not enough.
Same. I'm constantly surprised by the people for whom a good cultural fit or sense of belonging is a prerequisite for voting at all.
What is the least worse option when all the options are appalling?
I can't afford that kind of purity test. If you can't bring yourself to vote GP, TPM, or Labour, what are you even doing thinking about politics.
You suggest that because the product is inferior the possibilities should be dismissed?….no wonder our politics are where they are.
I didn't suggest that at all. Just explain your thinking Pat, it gets tedious otherwise and you know I have little patience for people making shit up about my views.
here we go again…if you are going to make statements have the courage to stand behind them….I have been perfectly clear.
what did you mean by possibilities?
When compromise is seen as a dirty word, Politics becomes impossible, because that is what it is, a compromise, and as it deals with humans it will never be perfect. So very painful for a perfectionist.
Only problem with your argument Patricia is I am far from a perfectionist….but I know the the difference between wheat and chaff.
If wheat is needed, chaff dosnt factor
Occasionally I get asked what the difference between the nats and labour is , my basic answer is national always make the rich richer and take away workers rights, labour trust to fix both those things
!00% bwaghorn
Cap’n Chippy should be regretting that tax call of his by now…
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/493726/week-in-politics-hipkins-makes-a-captain-s-call-as-labour-slides-in-the-polls
I revisit it in terms of recent polling…https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/newshub-reid-research-poll-results-nearly-half-of-kiwis-don-t-trust-christopher-luxon-chris-hipkins-trust-ranking-sliding-too.html
It will be a tight and volatile election, all parties seem to fighting for their existence in one form or another. Winston won’t work with NZ Labour, Seymour won’t work with Winston, Baldrick might work with Winston. David Parker and Robbo are not impressed with the Cap’n’s tacking…Let's hope that old wish prevails…NZF get 4.9%. And that the various fruitcake parties like Matt King’s Democracy NZ waste a few % of votes also.
The strategic approach would have been Labour/Green/TPM all supporting fairer tax policy, and laying it out for the electorate. Cap’n blew, it so it is all on. I have been opposing dirty, filthy, tories since Muldoon, so one more campaign won’t bother me, but it just such a waste of energy in what should be “a land of plenty.”
If Labour/Green/TPM are more than NACT then it is good that NZF get 4.9%. But otherwise NZF at 5.0% might prevent a NACT government (Peters preference is a National minority government with c and s from both ACT and NZF).
Yes, subtle difference, and on how much influence Act has with National. This election campaign has been going by proxy means since COVID and the occupation of Parliament grounds really.
They have plans.
The far right Heritage Foundation created a platform for Trump that plots an authoritarian take-over of the country.
Donald Trump nearly destroyed American democracy in his first term in office. If he is reelected, he plans to try to finish the job. This isn’t a matter of speculation; it’s a virtual certainty.
[…]
The specific goals of the project are discussed in great detail in the ninth edition of the Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership. First published in 1981, the Mandate is designed to serve as a guide for conservative governance, and is updated periodically, usually at the outset of each presidential administration. The current version totals some 920 pages.
If you lack the stomach to plow through the entire tome, you can turn to a two-page preface written by Paul Dans, Project 2025’s director who served as the Trump Administration’s Chief of Staff for the Office of Personnel Management. Dans outlines the project’s four basic objectives, which he calls its “four pillars.” These are: the development of a broad “policy agenda” for the next rightwing President to implement; the construction of a “personnel database” to assist the President in making staffing decisions; the creation of a “Presidential Academy” to train the next set of high-level government appointees; and a “Playbook” for the first 180 days of the next administration.
One of the project’s more disturbing aims is to bring all federal agencies under direct presidential control, ending the operational independence not only of the Department of Justice and the FBI, but also the Federal Reserve, which oversees the banking industry and regulates interest rates; the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which oversees television, radio, and the Internet; and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which enforces antitrust and consumer protection laws.
https://www.alternet.org/unequal-justice-trump-2024-democracy/
https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
A blend of irony & paradox. The deep-state myth is potent enough to serve as alt-reality. Trump as social justice warrior is the operational image used. Freedom fighter is a trad button to push in the psyche – the difference to Che is Don uses money not gun. So that agenda which brought Reagan to power is the dark side of the paradox, in which the Jungian shadow makes the user act just like the opposing threat…
Trump did it with the judges, as women in the USA discovered.
A copy of Israel's current actions?
Cogent points indeed Patricia and ianmac.
Yesterday was World Overshoot day. New Zealand's country specific Overshoot date was in April.
https://www.overshootday.org/
We cannot continue like this is we hope to have a livable planet for future generations. Action needs to be taken yesterday. Party vote Green.
that deserves a post. My problem is I don't understand why people believe that this year's cost of living crisis is more important. Do they not believe that we are in dire straights with climate and ecology?
Yes and a reminder about circular economy ideas
And stop eating animals…and the bye-products from this most cruel/environmental vandalism diet…
😎