Facebook reported its first-ever quarterly decline of daily users globally this week, sending its stock price plummeting by 23 percent in intraday trading on Thursday… wiping at least $200 billion in market value from Mark Zuckerberg and the Masters of the Universe.
The Masters will rebound, of course. They always do. As long as the left continues to hold hands with the right in supporting the system, the super-rich will get richer…
After a lengthy and at times magnificent placing of public health before private profit, the pressure from the NZ ruling class, finance capital, petit bourgeoisie and Natzo driven media must have become too great for the Labour Caucus.
What might have been…in terms of a different Aotearoa/NZ.
Yeah nah the Government finally saw the light and realised that any more Charlotte Bellis-like debacles could prove fatal.
Some people get it.
Covid is real, but so are car accidents. Vaccines work, but so do seatbelts and speed limits. We do not ban cars and driving completely, but we also do not allow people to drive without a licence or at 200kmh. We allow people to ride their bikes but (at least in New Zealand) we compel them to wear helmets.
Analogously, just like we ought not to ban cars in their entirety or abolish all speed and motoring regulations, we can strike a balance in our Covid policies. Vaccines and boosters can be promoted and masks mandated in high-risk areas without relying on crippling restrictions or isolationist border policies that close off Aotearoa to the rest of the world. It is clear that the benefits of the MIQ system are out of all proportion with the risks from Covid.
…
Structural issues are important to consider, of course. Covid has a disproportionate impact on certain groups – and we should be aware of this – but so does any aspect of public policy, from gambling and food policy to actions such as driving. Driving is much riskier for young people, yet we do not necessarily restrict everyone else’s habits to accommodate this fact. These questions of priority and aggregation are not new. Covid is not exceptional in this regard. Public policy is always full of complex moral considerations that require balancing and aggregation.
…
My fortunate experience with the disease should not be generalised nor taken for granted, but it is something that should also not be forgotten. Covid is not a harmless disease, as the tragic rates of mortality and morbidity associated with it show worldwide. At the same time, it is important to recognise an important fact: for the vast majority of vaccinated persons, Covid will not be a serious illness.
He is absolutely right. Bad things happen to good people, good things happen to bad people, and life isn’t necessarily fair. But we carry on living, just as we should.
The UK's change of elimination was lost pretty early. It's not an acknowledgement that he was wrong but an acknowledgement that there was no other choice.
The existence of natural unfairness does not constitute a reason for adding a layer of human-created unfairness on top. Rather, it constitutes a moral imperative to do the opposite.
But what the hell – I'm over dumb righties trotting out the "life isn't fair" mantra to justify the various built-in sociopathies of their ideology.
Indeed, the point of society since it's very origins has been to transcend the state of nature through collective action.
Years ago, the anthropologist Margaret Mead was asked by a student what she considered to be the first sign of civilization in a culture. The student expected Mead to talk about clay pots, tools for hunting, grinding-stones, or religious artifacts.
But no. Mead said that the first evidence of civilization was a 15,000 years old fractured femur found in an archaeological site. A femur is the longest bone in the body, linking hip to knee. In societies without the benefits of modern medicine, it takes about six weeks of rest for a fractured femur to heal. This particular bone had been broken and had healed.
Mead explained that in the animal kingdom, if you break your leg, you die. You cannot run from danger, you cannot drink or hunt for food. Wounded in this way, you are meat for your predators. No creature survives a broken leg long enough for the bone to heal. You are eaten first.
A broken femur that has healed is evidence that another person has taken time to stay with the fallen, has bound up the wound, has carried the person to safety and has tended them through recovery. A healed femur indicates that someone has helped a fellow human, rather than abandoning them to save their own life.
I’ve got no idea who you’re talking about. I’m to the left of Karl Marx lol
As for “adding a layer of human-created unfairness”, I’m sure that Charlotte Bellis and many others who have tried to enter MIQ would agree with you. By abolishing MIQ, we will be eliminating that human-created unfairness.
''But what the hell – I'm over dumb righties trotting out the "life isn't fair" mantra to justify the various built-in sociopathies of their ideology.''
Dumb Righties? Well, that’s to be expected.
Before you mouth off, you should check the backgrounds of people who supposedly are scions of priveldged blue blood stock.
Yeah, sure their are some of those chinless wonders around. They wouldn't know a Maori if they tripped over one, they move in such rarefied environments.
But that does a disservice to those who have worked hard all their lives, build businesses up and made something of their lives. They then decide to shout themselves a Porsche and what happens: lefties whinge about da fillfy rich living on the backs of workers.
Back in the 90s, my boss had a Porsche. He told me he would get the fingers on a regular basis. Once someone yelled abuse at him; ran out and keyed his car. Being a top of the line turbo model, he paid big money to get it fixed.
Bob Jones reported similar.
There's nothing wrong with our ideology. That's why National gets big support from the Asian and Indian communities. These folk know the difference between lala land politics… and real word politics.
Life ain't fair – fact. That doesn't mean you can't change your fate.
The default setting of our media is portside. Has been for a long time. However, they are prepared to go off the reservation now and again when they either want a sensational story…or they are just over an incumbent government.
Any guesses which is which at the moment, TM?
''What might have been…in terms of a different Aotearoa/NZ.''
What might have been? Bhutan with a 1984 mentality?
Yes weka, exactly that kind of thing! There should not be one hungry or homeless person in this land of plenty. But we are clearly a “Tale of Two Cities” kind of country and have been for some decades.
COVID exposed the neo liberal state all over again–two tier benefit system, digital divide, overcrowding, emphasis on needs of business and finance capital first, managerialist culture in the public service etc. Working class voices were rarely heard in the media, those quietly getting public transport to a low paid job to help keep things ticking over.
Day after day the petit bourgeoisie whinged… those with roomy accomodation, well resourced home offices, full pantrys and an entitlement to roam the globe as they please, pressured the Labour Caucus relentlessly to end their brave strategy of putting public health before private profit.
Absolutely TM. Endless amplification of the whingeing priviledged convinces poll driven politicians to buckle. Of course, the whingeing will now only be orders of magnitude louder as the media smell the concentrating of blood. Perhaps an opportunity for the Greens if they can oppose the new direction and articulate a path. Really, managing covd has a lot of synergies with climate change mitigation. Both require powering down with a heavy local focus
you are hearing more from the privileged as the governing elite are doing less for the downtrodden than ever before. despite all the dreams and aspirations, homelessness and child poverty are up.
I recall election promises from Labour to eliminate them. yet here they still are
"COVID exposed the neo liberal state all over again"
Yep it exposed that alright, not just in NZ but also in every other freemarket economy run system on the planet..and it was exposed as a fact right into the faces of every single human being in every one of those countries…but will that fact be the primary discussion that will be relentlessly and deeply analyzed by our media and politicians going forward?, will there be any serious self critique by them and their role in this disaster…..sadly I think we all, already know the answer to that question.
And we all know exactly what happens when lessons are not learned….
The PM’s choices were stark. Listen, for once, to the people and give them more or less what they want; or, continue to impose a rigid public health response for ideological reasons that the people would increasingly ignore, and deliberately be non compliant with, and prepare to be voted out in 2023.
Her decision to begin to open the borders was entirely political.
Dont doubt politics played its part but not 'entirely'.
As much as many wish to dismiss it, there is real economic risk building after 2 years of restricted activity, many of the SMEs that employ the bulk of NZs workforce have survived through using savings or borrowing and paring their costs as low as possible….that only works for so long. Added to that the enabler of credit for these businesses appears about to rollover creating further demands on them in terms of debt/credit….and now Omicron is in the community likely to further restrict the already reduced activity.
They have run out of the one thing they cant print or buy…time.
Even Howard Kurtz, Fox News reporter, is aghast at Trump:
Trump, with his daily blasts to reporters, pounds away at the "rigged" election virtually every day. Just the other day, he said Mike Pence could have "overturned the election" – saying the quiet part out loud, rather than just contending he was insisting on a fair Electoral College count. And at a weekend rally, Trump floated the idea of pardoning the Jan. 6 defendants if he wins back the White House.
The New York Times investigative report on Trump and voting machines pulls back the curtain on really a troubling episode, especially for those who view him as having attempted a coup. What Trump was considering went so far that even Rudy Giuliani, no stranger to conspiracy theories, tried to block the plans as being beyond the pale.
The gist is that Trump explored having the Pentagon, Justice Department or Homeland Security seize voting machines in disputed states based on a complete lack of evidence that they had been tampered with. The voting machine theories, promoted by fringe characters around Trump, were the wackiest of all, said to include machinations involving Venezuela and Hugo Chavez.
The Times piece says Trump ordered Giuliani, six weeks after the election, to ask if Homeland Security could impound the voting machines in crucial swing states. Acting Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli told Rudy he didn’t have the authority to do that. Trump asked William Barr if DOJ could seize the machines. Barr told the president "that the Justice Department had no basis for seizing the machines because there was no probable cause to believe a crime had been committed."
Trump also pressed state lawmakers in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania to use local law enforcement to seize voting machines, but they refused as well. Finally, in mid-December, Michael Flynn and Sidney Powell handed Trump a draft executive order, in the Oval, directing the military to seize voting machines. The president called in Giuliani, who warned the military could be used only if there was clear evidence of foreign interference in the election. Powell said she had such evidence involving China and others.
So there's a divide on the right between those who see any pretext to break the law as workable & those who are averse to non-workable pretexts. Trump, a New Yorker, learnt how to succeed by gaming the system. Rules can always be bent, and sometimes broken if your lawyer sees a way through. That view has been traditional in NYC since the 19th century if not longer. I'm inclined to bet that the US justice system isn't quite so malleable, and will defeat the Don.
Not sure about OZ, but the US has a very unhealthy population. Obesity, Diabetes, living on Oxygen tanks, bad overall health, smoking, high drug use (fentantyl, carfenantyl etc). I think what would be interested in the break down of death would be a. jabbed vs unjabbed, b. type of comorbidity, c. age, d. socio economic caste, e. living arrangements to gauge why the numbers are so high.
what Sabine said about the US. I assume Australia hasn't peaked with omicron yet but the UK has because they got it earlier?
Can it be that omicron is not as 'mild' as has been trumpeted?
Whoever started and whoever ran with the narrative that omicron is mild did a lot of damage. It's less severe in individuals, but because it infects so many more people there are more deaths etc.
And if you look at figure 5 and see who was getting covid-19 at the latest peak in the UK, the rates are in reverse order of age from 20-29 to 80+ i.e. the older you are the more likely you are to stay out of the way. Death rates are down because younger people are catching it. Can older people stay out of the way forever? What kind of life are we condemning them too?
in saying that, younger people who are out and about – working and leisure – have a good chance of catching it again and again. I would like to see some studies to that.
In Oz, it's hard to tell about case numbers because of inaccuracies in people reporting RAT test results, but the stats do seem to show that all states are experiencing a steady drop in numbers. Hospitalisations have plateaued and not increasing, but not decreasing fast either. Deaths have averaged at about 50 to 100 a day nationwide. Not increasing, but also not yet decreasing. Most are in aged care homes and there's an enormous stink over here about the federal government (who is in charge of aged care) not having done enough to keep Omicron out (poor conditions for workers, lack of booster programme etc.)
That is the crux of the matter innit, that Omicron is fast, and by shear numbers of infected people can/will do as much if not more damage then the other variants.
"Whoever started and whoever ran with the narrative that omicron is mild did a lot of damage."…..maybe they stated it because it is a fact.
How do you think that fact should have handled?
Whoever started and whoever ran with the narrative that omicron is mild did a lot of damage. It's less severe in individuals, but because it infects so many more people there are more deaths etc.
Why are you ignoring the point I made about more deaths/hospitalisations and probably more disability?
Its as severe as delta,however due to infecting those who have prior partial immunity due to vaccination or prior infection it seems milder good example of Simpsons Paradox.
My two cents worth – consensus opinion of medical experts is that infection with the Omicron variant typically results in less severe symptoms than Delta, so it's good that Omicron has largely displaced Delta.
However, due to an unusual combination of mutations that no one could have predicted, Omicron is significantly more transmissible than earlier variants, and so the number of people with an active COVID-19 (largely Omicron) infection has more than doubled (to 75 million globally) in the last month – by far the most rapid rise in active cases so far in this pandemic.
And so, despite increasing vaccine coverage and improved treatment regimes (particularly in developed countries), the enormous increase in the number of Omicron-infected individuals was always likely to increase the number of COVID-related deaths.
The current trend of increasing reported daily deaths (~10,000 per day at the moment) will continue – with any luck the numbers will peak before reaching the previous tragic 'highs' of ~15,000 deaths per day back in January (also a seasonal component to consider) and May 2021.
Well, probably anyone passing year12/13 math would have many of the tools, but to be sure about some of the stuff like confidence intervals and p values and confidence intervals, most people taking first year papers in epidemiology, finance&quantitative analysis, advanced first year stats, and maybe people who went into quant research as part of 2nd year pols or 3rd year marketing courses.
So literally tens of thousands of young people.
When the data eventually becomes available, of course.
Deaths tend to lag case numbers by a few weeks because usually it takes at least a few weeks to decline to that point (and is often a lot longer with modern treatment and ICU capability).
HADP shows zero attempt at balance in her 'broadcasting', if you can call it that. She has an agenda, of that there is no doubt, so let's stop pretending she's just asking questions, ok?
I would have thought she'd be a bit more grateful for New Zealand's pandemic response after Covid killed her own grandmother in a country which has very few tools with which to fight Coronavirus.
That she wants NZ to shift more towards South Africa's position and put rest home residents at massive risk is totally beyond me.
As always with RWNJs, personal profit trumps societal good, even when it's your own family suffering.
It is hoped Novavax could persuade those who were hesitant to get jabbed to reconsider, as it uses older technology they will trust.
Novavax is different to the other vaccines being rolled out in the UK, as it is made using protein-based tech – like the Hepatitis B jab.
Professor Paul Heath, who led the trials in the UK, said: "We do believe there are people out there who have been waiting for a vaccine that has been developed with a more traditional platform, such as the Novavax vaccines.
he just kept right on digging himself into a deeper hole. The National Opposition, and their Act ally, were not slow to take advantage of the Labour Government’s folly. Unsurprising, since, when it came to ammunition, they were spoiled for choice.
The utter madness of the Government’s response may be judged by the way it instantly devalued any and all decision-making related to MIQ policy. Whatever the Cabinet decided to do: no matter how far it went towards meeting the public’s expectations and/or criticisms; it could not now avoid being read by the electorate as a policy concession forced upon Labour by the Bellis Embarrassment.
The madness of Minister Hipkins also provided the National Opposition Leader, Chris Luxon, with an opportunity to, in effect, piggy-back on the public interest… Luxon and his advisers, undoubtedly buoyed by the results of the latest Roy Morgan poll (showing National/Act backed by 50 percent of the voting public) could hardly be blamed for marking the past seven days as the week Fortune’s tide re-floated the Centre-Right’s boats.
Yeah, Hipkins was the Nats' secret weapon against Labour. Wonder if they'll give him the nickname Patsy?
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of the Bellis Embarrassment to understand is what on earth possessed those writing the rules to erect even the smallest obstacles to pregnant New Zealand women returning to their homeland to give birth. For most older New Zealanders, the rule has always been: “Women and children first – and pregnant women before everyone!” We were raised on the tragic example of the doomed “Titanic” – where men gave up their places in the lifeboats for the bearers of the next generation.
What does it say about the current crop of public servants that they were able to create a labyrinth of rules and regulations that made it possible for a British deejay to be welcomed into this country, while denying re-entry to a stranded Kiwi woman and her unborn child?
Well I already explained that a few days ago – they were doing their duty as operational agents of the patriarchy. Discriminating against females is an ingrained default position. One rule for all defeats humanitarian considerations any day in the public service. Special circumstances are no excuse!
More to the point, what does it say about the current crop of Labour ministers – Chris Hipkins in particular – that they did not intervene, with righteous wrath, to put an end to this unconscionable rejection of that most basic human instinct: the urge to protect, at any cost, mothers and their children?
Yeah, I can explain that too! Intervening to impose a policy of kindness on public servants would have meant practising what the PM preached. A bunch of hypocrites wouldn't want to do so, obviously. They knew she was just uttering meaningless blather. The possibility of implementing her advice to the people of Aotearoa probably never even occurred to them. They know they're above the people, so her exhortation couldn't possibly apply to them!
"… what on earth possessed those writing the rules to erect even the smallest obstacles to pregnant New Zealand women returning to their homeland to give birth."
I think it is more likely those implementing the rules who were the problem, not the writers of the rules.
He described the ordeal as “pretty horrific and distressing”.
“The spraying of our plants seems like overkill, we would’ve been happy if someone had knocked on our door and said ‘hey we’ve had a complaint’ or something … we would’ve destroyed them if they asked us to,” he said.
“We’re just a mother and father … good community jobs, we work in the community, we help the community with sports, we’re both in community groups and are working for non-profit organisations. We don’t understand why we got targeted in a distressing manner.
Given the couple’s circumstances: "overkill" indeed.
I think it is more likely those implementing the rules who were the problem, not the writers of the rules.
Except the bunny who was mis-managing admitted a few days ago that they addressed the question of whether to prioritise pregnant kiwi returnees back in October and decided not to do so. Being inhumane apparently seemed a better option to them. Naturally no reason for that decision was given to the media.
Also may have felt like many of us that pregnancy is not actually an illness. The over medicalisation of pregnancy was a concern of older generation women's rights issues. Cancer or heart disease are illnesses.
A normal pregnancy is not an illness though clearly travelling during late trimester 3 can be concerning.
There are illnesses that do happen during pregnancy such as gestational diabetes, eclampsia, umbilical cord and placenta abnormalities and these are rightly regarded alongside heart failure and cancer.
As an old time woman's libber I am doing a fair amount of twitching at what seem to me to be rather patriarchical concepts of women being sick when they are pregnant.
His surname was Bunny so that's how I think of him. The media gave his job title but my opinion of him was already so low that the prospect of attempting to remember that seemed unpalatable. A person of absolutely no consequence or credibility whatsoever…
"Well I already explained that a few days ago – they were doing their duty as operational agents of the patriarchy. Discriminating against females is an ingrained default position."
No.
You didn't "explain", you assumed.
With zero evidence
zero
And here you still are banging on about your own heavy sexism.
So it still hasn't occurred to you that your denial could seem plausible if you thought of a more likely explanation. Any idea how long you'll have to wait for it to occur? 🙄
nope.. not about me… about your evidence-less statements and bias (which by your sentence above indicates that because you can't think of an explanation you let your biases fill the gap – very revealing i must say)
Yeah, I can explain that too! Intervening to impose a policy of kindness on public servants would have meant practising what the PM preached. A bunch of hypocrites wouldn't want to do so, obviously. They knew she was just uttering meaningless blather. The possibility of implementing her advice to the people of Aotearoa probably never even occurred to them. They know they're above the people, so her exhortation couldn't possibly apply to them!
\\
Is there any time that you have a good word for Public Servants? These complaints you have do not reflect the PS I loved and worked in for 36 years.
We mostly saw ourselves as working for the public despite the neolib reforms having us work for Ministers. The ones I know took pride in doing a good job, where legislation was concerned and where decisions were required,we carefully looked at all factors and approved where we legally could do so. To approve where we could not legally do so put us at risk from litigation, rehearings and other time- and energy- wasteful happenings.
Decisions being made in a legal context can look at the legal aspects from 'a fair large & liberal way' or one that focuses on the 'plain meaning'. Both are accepted ways of looking at legislation.
We focussed on having the best processes to turn around decisions while still maintaining the prime focus on the legalities of our actions. Where there was a gap we focussed on letting the Minister know this and arguing for priority on legislative programmes.
We focussed on bettering our communications of decisions, of letting people know their rights to have the decisions reviewed. We focussed on being approachable. In all of these aspects we did our very best according to our work place ways of working and the legislation/policies we were administering.
I know that public servant bashing is what passes for thoughtful commentary in some sectors of our society. I am surprised to see it here.
As for the Bellis case. She applied under the incorrect category, she told the decision makers to 'shove it' when they suggested she apply under the correct category, as I understand it, by saying they had all the info and left them with making a decision under the only category they could where the info was clear and where they could get support and that was that where she was living currently may be dangerous. And still she complains and you complain that decision makers were not kind.
I am picking that should there be a review of the process that the the decisionmakers' actions, on the info they were given, it will find that the actions were justified. What also may come out is that there is the potential for tweaking the process. This is NOT the same as saying that the decision was incorrect but that we are always learning to make the process better.
The Public Servants I worked with knew that by doing their jobs well according to the process, policies and legislation was the biggest kindness we could have for the public.
Perhaps a reflection on the chip permanently on lodged on your shoulder together with the mote in your eye could be useful. You are weighed down.
So it hasn't yet occurred to you that attempting to defend an indefensible system is a mistake. Plus you haven't noticed that the attitudes and actual behaviours that caused the problem need to be eliminated. Feeble excuses will never shift public opinion!
It also seems that you haven't learnt the lesson from the deputy PM having to intervene to clean up the mess Hipkins made. You are normally perceptive, so I suspect there's a belief system between you & reality on this issue. Damage control as a political response always indicates damage done.
Trying to blame bystanders is classic aversion to facing up to the situation. As soon as we saw Robertson belatedly conceding the error (even if only tacitly) it ought to have been obvious to any leftist with half a working brain that the mistake was made.
I was not defending the indefensible I clearly stated the part of your post that I took issue with.
Yeah, I can explain that too! Intervening to impose a policy of kindness on public servants would have meant practising what the PM preached. A bunch of hypocrites wouldn't want to do so, obviously. They knew she was just uttering meaningless blather. The possibility of implementing her advice to the people of Aotearoa probably never even occurred to them. They know they're above the people, so her exhortation couldn't possibly apply to them!
You do not seem to understand how legislation works or the decision making process works in the PS yet you feel you can criticise what went on here.
Mere mortals who get it wrong in say Immigration cases or the area where I worked either providing wrong info, applying in the wrong category or late do not get get this OTT treatment she has. To do so is fraught as decision makers risk the charge of favouring some and not others when the circumstances are the same.
I have had years of experiences as a decision maker in legislation, in Ministerial reviews, where this is allowed, Judicial reviews (thankfully very few) , rehearings, Ombudmen reviews in working through to see if mistakes were made…..across three different departments plus working in some health related complaints processes.
I am really not interested in the Bellis case as an indicator of how the Public Service works, sorry. She was largely the author, deliberately possibly, I am thinking of her own misfortune. She applied in the wrong category, she doubled down on her mistake. She has succeeded because she is one who attempts to make a case in the court of public opinion. Bullying Ministers is a game for some, just as bullying public servants who traditionally don't and can't bite back seems to be a game for you.
Many PS with decision making powers have come across the Bellis' of this world.
They are always with us but the reality is that for every 'looka me looka me there are 100s who carefully provided the info, trusted the process or if they were disappointed and felt they had grounds took a rehearing approach. They are the bulk and they realise that if a legal decision needs to be made that it is not automatically go in their favour…..they need to do some work too.
You mention the DPM he also said that the approval in this case should not be taken as meaning that someone can squawk from overseas and get their way or words to that effect.
All systems need periodic review, all systems where decisions are made by real people according to legislation or policy go wonky as we are all human.
If you know anything about the law, or admin law that governs decision making, you will have heard of the truism 'hard cases make bad law'. This is because of the precedent value so that unless the case is 'distinguished' in some way stupid rules can be set in place. This will be what is behind the DPM saying don't think anyone can jump up and down from overseas and make a big fuss and get similar treatment.
You talk of blaming bystanders (not really sure what this means as Bellis is not a bystander) and yet this is exactly what happened in the Bellis case. She splattered all over the news and is still splattering. She did not hesitate to blame bystanders ie people other than the actual decision makers as well as the decision makers themselves.
Anyway this is too much about such an unimportant person….
The key point is that legal decision makers in the PS wander from the bounds of the law, to be kind, if that means approving cases that don't line up with the legislation.
The best way 'to be kind' in a department where legal decision making is carried out is to
have clear, but not set in stone, processes
clear indications of what applicants need to provide,
policy on what happens if info is not provided ie decline and new application provided or we work with you and wait.
good processes to convey the decisions to the applicants, including rehearing or review possibilities
decision makers who are fit for purpose ie experienced and well resourced
legislation that is fit for purpose
processes for delegating up if need be.
I am quite sure any business planner worth their salt will be able to work out what 'being kind' in their own department would look like, milestones or KPIs or whatever and then flow it down to the job descriptions and person specifications and yearly work plans.
Remember when Sir John Key was in power and it seemed like every time National might falter Labour would shoot itself in the foot?
I tell you whut, at the start of the year I thought Labour/Green would be an easy bet for the next election because the evil, patriarchal media had it in for St Jude and would then certainly move against Luxon but now its feeling more and more like pre-covid times when National/Act were in the ascendance
Too early to be confident of a trend. The anomaly in ACT poll ratings is now the thing to watch. There's a huge difference between Luxon pulling Nat refugees back to the tune of 5% or so and having zero effect! Likewise for any continual drifting down of Labour or stabilising around 40%.
If media seemed to be set against JC you have to take into account her lack of drawing centrists back across the line – which would have given them reason to talk up her prospects.
I agree the budget is an inflexion point but primarily with regard to policy spending. It's policy delivery that will be critical from now on. That gives folks a sense of reassurance that Labour can be competent despite screw-ups.
I meant the contrast between the one we discussed here a few days ago (a week? Roy Morgan) & the earlier Kantar poll. I don't do onsite searches here but probably not hard to find…
It's probably only looked at by the political tragics. They only seem to do it for their own interest and just toss the questions in during other polling they carry out.
I see it because I get an e-mail newsletter from them each business day with short summaries of Australian business stories. The include a link to any polls they have just published so I see them from there. I certainly wouldn't bother looking there just in case they had published something.
It used to be a very good poll because they did it every fortnight and you could see trends. Now it is once a month and for a while it was even less than that.
Those figures are based on the nearest thing they had to go on, i.e Australian state figures. Our 94% vax rate, better mask use etc may just be working to slow every thing down. Aussies in NSW, Vic etc were more cavalier.
Remember that back in Oct,Nov, Dec in 21 thier projections done months before for Delta were pretty much right on the money.
The case load spread is low at present,due to most Kiwis managing the risk by not entering high risk situations such as hospitality, and using non pharmaceutical interventions such as masks etc, here you have the wisdom of the masses.
The arguments for open borders and resumption of tourism is an own goal for hospitality by destroying their local market.
Panic early is a wise defensive strategy under fat tail events.
Taleb et al.
One may be entitled to ask: as we get to know the disease, do the tails get thinner? Early in the game one must rely on conditional information, but as our knowledge of the disease progresses, should we not be allowed to ignore tails?
Alas, no. The scale of the pandemic might change, but the tail properties will remain invariant. Furthermore, there is an additional paradox. If one does not take the pandemic seriously, it will likely run wild (particularly under the connectivity of the modern world, several orders of magnitude higher than in the past (Albert & Barabasi, 2002)). And diseases mutate, increasing or decreasing in both lethality and contagiousness. The argument would therefore resemble the following: “we have not observed many plane crashes lately, let’s relax our safety measures”.
Finally, we conclude this section with an encouraging point: fat tails do not make the world more complicated and do not cause frivolous worries; on the contrary. Understanding them actually reduces costs of reaction because they tell us what to target – and when to do so. Because network models tend to follow certain patterns to generate large tail events (Albert and Barabasi, 2002, Garibaldi and Scalas, 2010), in front of contagious diseases wisdom in action is to kill the exponential growth in the egg via three central measures: (1) reducing super-spreader events; (2) monitoring and reducing mobility for those coming from far-away places (via quarantines); (3) looking for cheap measures with large payoffs in terms of the reduction of the multiplicative effects (e.g. face masks10 ). Anything that “demultiplies the multiplicative” helps (Taleb, 2020c).
Drastic shotgun measures such as lockdowns are the price of avoiding early traveler quarantines and border monitoring; they can be – temporarily and cum grano salis – of help, especially in the very early stages of the new contagious disease, when uncertainty is maximal, to help isolating and tracing the infections, and also buying some time for understanding the disease and the way it spreads. Indeed such drastic and painful measures can carry long-lasting damages to the system, not counting an excessive price in terms of personal freedoms.
But they are the price of not having a good coordinated tail risk management in place – to repeat, border monitoring and control of superspreader events being the very first such measures. And lockdowns are the costs of ignoring arguments such as increased connectivity in our environment and conflating additive and multiplicative risks.
To conclude, as the trader lore transmitted by generations of operators goes, “if you must panic, it pays to panic early”.
The team of 5 million are very, very good at Covid health measures. As Adrian said we are very good at mask-wearing, social distancing, scanning, and staying in work bubbles.
Most of us don't do anything stupid because of the, 'no-one is going to tell me what to do' attitude which exists in Australia.
When you throw open the border you are importing very poor adherence to health measures because the returnees and foreign citizens have been conditioned to not bother, it's all too hard for them.
Can't model the piss poor attitude of other countries accurately.
"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
That is the problem when only one metric is focussed on: Lives lost to a specific disease without considering other important factors.
Firstly, we don't know what our toll would have been otherwise: No lockdowns doesn't mean no controls or restrictions at all.
Secondly, there are lots of other societal costs associated with lockdowns: eg: deferred medical procedures, incredible stress on business owners who faced losing their livelihoods and the like, and probably a lot of other factors that we may never know until years in the future.
Who knows, history may show the cure was worse than the disease.
I heard about that report on talkback. A study/model by Neil Ferguson was also mentioned.
There is debate over Ferguson's study. The problem with modelling is modelling.
From the link:
''The successful code testing isn’t a review of the scientific accuracy of the simulation, produced by a team led by mathematical epidemiologist Neil Ferguson. But it dispels some misapprehensions about the code, and shows that others can repeat the original findings.''
Sometimes the science gets lost in debate regarding modelling.
I have concerns with that analysis – their definition of lockdown includes at least one compulsory non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) which they define as including mask-wearing and border restrictions, and they are only looking at deaths, and exclude case numbers and hospitalisations. A lot of the studies are also pre-Delta, which has a higher transmission rate and fatality rate, although maybe that doesn't matter.
@ TS Smithfield
Well modelling is the very last reason I am 'freaking out' as you call it about the border opening.
My real concern is at the missed opportunities to effect real change in NZ especially on:
housing,
climate change,
signalling changes to our immigration regime
opting for high value tourism rather than a commodity approach, ie stuff them in planes then camper vans and they will come
signalling desirable change to our exports rather than cheese, milk powder and logs ie away from commodities and more processing here in NZ.
All delivered in a quid pro quo manner ie RSE and agricultural tractors drivers will be able to come this year but next there will be a sinking lid so if you had 100 next year you will have 60 etc. To move to full time careers across agriculture.
Huge opportunities to effect some little changes that make bigger changes have been missed. .
Its important to remember that the modelling (attempts) to show the real incidence….not the confirmed testing rate. Especially in a high incidence environment the chances of finding all of the cases by testing will diminish as that incidence increases.
Yes these modelling people are an absolute joke. Was it Shaun (80,000 will die) Hendy by any chance? How much money are we wasting on these people. And I disagree with Hipkins comment that the modelling is useful (even though extremely inaccurate) rather than no modelling. I think no modelling is actually better unless they want to try and scare the public?
So right at the start of the pandemic, when we didn't know how things were going to play out, modellers did the best they could. The NZ government did in fact lock down hard and early and did in fact stamp out the first wave of covid in NZ.
You'd have to be some kind of idiot to suggest they were wrong to do that. Or heartless.
That is far too logical (and not enough fear factor). Government should be paying you to do the modelling for them as you have built in common sense to your model. Well done.
However, most experts, including many in Australia, believe Omicron is no more dangerous to children than previous strains.
“‘On the whole, most children are either asymptomatic or have a very mild illness,’ Dr Asha Bowen, Head of Infectious Disease at Perth Children’s Hospital, told Australian media today.”
“In the US Dr David Rubin from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia recently said there was no solid evidence that Omicron was more threatening to children and much of the rise in admissions was the result of sheer case numbers, as well as low vaccination rates among young children.
This seems to be in keeping with other available data showing that the actual risk of hospitalisation from Omicron in children under the age of five has fallen in the US compared to the Delta wave.
‘I think the important story to tell here is that severity is way down and the risk for significant severe disease seems to be lower,’ Dr Rubin said.”
I agree that Omicron in kids is a worry. I have two grandkids that are 8 months old. So I really don't want them getting it.
Having said that, the few deaths of children in Australia have had fairly severe underlying issues I think. So it may not be a major concern for healthy children. Very sad though:
A wild overestimate? That is circular reasoning. The reason we didn't have that that many deaths was because of the lockdowns, social distancing masking etc.
And it's not like that exact number was predicted. 80,000 was the peak number (with no controls) assuming an 89% infection rate and a 1.67% mortality rate. At the low end (with all controls on) the model predicted around 20 deaths based on a 0.04% infection rate and a 0.0004% mortality rate (link).
Until the arrival of the Delta variant in August, we were sitting on 26 deaths. Not too far off, were they?
Stuff has an article about what's happening with Omicron numbers. Hipkins was probably right when he compared disease spread modelling with weather forecasting. It's all about what could happen, not what will happen.
80k was the projection for zero change in behaviour: no lockdowns, masking, border controls, mobility changes, school closures, etc.
Looking at places like Sweden or UK, he wasn't too far off – still overcounts what they've had by about 10 times, but then they did do half-arse some measures and lots of individuals choose to self-isolate regardless of what their stupid governments might say.
Modelling isn't perfect, but choosing the furthest extreme from reality in an attempt to discredit the projection is as good as lying.
Maybe I was being too definitive like Grant Robertson often is, I will look up Sweden deaths shortly as you say, he was pretty close in his predictions to them so I imagine with the population around double ours they will have close to 160,000 deaths as they didn’t lock down originally.
tsmithfield-The Central Otago Queenstown Trail Network Trust predicted that 13,500 people would be using the new (Clyde to Cromwell) Lake Dunstan Trail by 2032.
62,000 people used the trail in the first 10 months.
They must be using the same modelers as used for Covid.
If ALL pregnant NZ citizens overseas were given direct access to MIQ the Government would have been criticised by the usually outraged for framing pregnancy as a medical abnormality. Considering that one of the main tenets of the 60s and 70s feminist movement was the desire to normalise pregnancy, no more of the sexist "little woman " and "in confinement " bullshit that was rife up until then. Governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
If the government would have could have…..but it did not. It did not put up a category that said 'pregnant woman'.
Between the misogyny of the left and the right, women will do what they have to do for themselves and their children, alive or unborn, take care of business one way or another.
The point is not that. She could have, a heavy contraction, a drunk driver on the road, roaming dog, any sort of stuff could have happened. Teh point is, that she did not needed to do that, that driving in a vehicle to the hospital while being in contractions close enough to go to the hospital would have been an ok thing to do even for JAG.
Having to sit in the back of a car while in labour (the ‘normal’ way), trying to keep my seatbelt on and wishing i could move around, was pretty much the worst part. You’re awesome Julie Anne!
A commenter on JAG's FB page when she posted the photo.
that's your point. My point is that if it's not about her skill on a bike, then it's about saying no pregnant women should ride bikes in labour. What about the day before she went into labour?
Afghanistan must have hopeless medical facilities and poor catering for births all right. The population is 38 million. Were they all born in some other country?
no they were all born in Afghanistan and pregnant women and children die in childbirth like they are using a hospital in Austria before the doctors there understood that washing hands after an autopsy before working on a women in labour is thing.
that is from 2020 when the times were still good. And for what its worth, this number is the 'counted number' of women who will die in a hospital, the ones that die at home are not counted.
But its ok, its just women, and women give birth every day, and if they die….oh well that is their lot, right?
Afghanistan must have hopeless medical facilities and poor catering for births all right. The population is 38 million. Were they all born in some other country?
This is a very ignorant thing to say. Women have poor birth outcomes for a whole range of reasons, including poverty. I would guess living under the Taliban adds additional layers of risk before we even get to medical facilities. But if you have a pregnancy complication that needs specialist hospital care and there is no specialist hospital care then women and babies sometimes die. Afghanistan has one of the worst maternal mortality rates in the world. This is really not hard to understand.
Despite some improvements over the past years, Afghanistan has one of the highest maternal and newborn mortality rates in the world, and the need for specialised care is vital. In Switzerland, five mothers will die per 100,000 live births. In Afghanistan, this number jumps to 638 who will die; this does not include the 15 mothers and five unborn babies who were systematically shot dead in the maternity ward where I work a month ago.
yes, i did, and i put a lot of words before and after that snipped and you are very much taking my words out of context.
What i did say, is i think she should find the Medicins Sans Frontiers ( the last NGO in Afghanistan that still provides maternity services to Afghani Women) and if she gets stuck there she should do a daily post/blog/podcast to shine light on the abhorrent treatment of hte women in that country. That would have made for some good news every day, and may have shamed some of those that have no care in the world about the treatment of the women in that country who are oppressed because of their SEX.
And I would like you to remember that i also posted up a nice wordy speech of Laura Bush telling us that we should invade for the good of the women of Afganistan. Or is that inconvenient in your selective quoting.
Fact is again, Dear Blazer, that women will do what women have to do in order to live their lifes safely, and that includes their children born and unborn.
And just so you truly understand what i am saying,
The benign sexism of the left is as abhorrent as the sexism of hte right. Both would like to disappear us into nothingness, the one by way of Gender WOO and self identity and hte other by way of standard old fashioned sexism. Both have the same effect, it is to the detriment of women, and to the detriment of pregnant women.
And last, yes, she did make the government look bad, and that was solely the fault of the Government. Maybe someone needs to educate these highly educated people about sex, biology and how babies are made and born.
How about this for radical thinking, If you have a NZ Passport and are double vaxed and have a negative Covid test prior to departure, you can come back to NZ.
yes, and then they go into MIQ or an isolation facility.
We can not keep the country locked up for ever and we can not keep citizens out forever.
What I would like to know is: Has the government of NZ done anything to help stranded kiwis get Visas overseas for the duration of the time it takes them to go home. I.e. Visas, work visas, residence permits etc.
I'd wager a dollar that if she could have stayed in Belgium she would have. I also wager a dollar that if she had not fallen pregnant she would have not applied for an MIQ spot and would have stayed overseas.
The NZ government can't really influence the immigration rules of other countries. Bellis could have applied for a residence permit in Belgium which would have got her more than the normal 3 Schengen months. She could have also gone to Britain, which has a social security arrangement with NZ (reciprocal rights to medical treatment). But anyway the whole Bellis thing has been thoroughly thrashed out here and elsewhere. I think what Afghani women have angrily said about Bellis should have been given more exposure.
No, if she had already stayed that long, i doubt she would have gotten anywhere. And Kiwis don't actually get automatically visas either. I think that the Afghani women has an easy time to speak as she is no longer in Afghanistan. See how that changes the narrative? Could she have gone to England, yeah, right Tui. Suddenly Covid is ok to get when you are a pregnant women overseas and your government don't care about you? Right.
Again, understand that not one Country in Europe is obliged in any way to take care financially, medically and with housing of stranded dudes and dudettes from NZ just because their government could not be bothered finding a different way to running MIQ, or finding a way to keep these guys overseas safe, housed, fed and with access to medical treatment while they keep the country locked.
Again, your rights to safety here does not over ride the rights to safety of Kiwis that are stranded elsewhere. And the egg on the face of government is because someone in government decided that her case what not of an 'emergency' enough. Maybe get annoyed at some highly paid anonymous beige suit in government who despite a lot of education missed out on 'common sense 101' while in University. But then, just because someone spend a lot of money on education does not mean they a. learned something and b. understood something.
Probably not if you have a negative test and are double vaxed and spend 10 days isolating and having tests on whatever days they now recommend.
No one should be left state-less.
If ALL pregnant NZ citizens overseas were given direct access to MIQ the Government would have been criticised by the usually outraged for framing pregnancy as a medical abnormality. Considering that one of the main tenets of the 60s and 70s feminist movement was the desire to normalise pregnancy, no more of the sexist "little woman " and "in confinement " bullshit that was rife up until then. Governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
Not really. It's not hard to understand pregnancy as a normal, healthy life event that sometimes goes wrong, and that when it goes wrong sometimes you need immediate access to good health care. The only way your scenario would happen is if the government wasn't competent as messaging.
I still think they should have had a separate criteria list for pregnant women, because as I wrote in my post the one they're using was obviously written for men and non-pregnant women. Which doesn't mean giving all pregnant women priority, it just means doing an assessment based on physical reality.
$3600 pa in rates and $6 per rubbish bag on top of that.
My second flood in 6 months. Knew it wasn't as bad as last time so stayed put… So far.
The town needs some strategic flood walls, to resume dredging the river (all but stopped when the cement works shut years ago), clearing up of the Orawaiti overflow channel and making some areas unsuitable for housing for good.
I do like it here, but if I got offered the market value I had last week, or could have the same house on elevated land for the same price, I'd probably take it – Just as long as I didn't have to live next door to anyone like me lol
Was having coffee with a DHB colleague today. We were quietly speculating on the odds of the national party conference being a superspreader event, given their leader's insistence on wearing a mask with his nose hanging out.
Once is an accident, but doing it repeatedly as a leader during a pandemic indicates he's whistling to the dogs.
Was having a zoom call with a set of clients who specialise in rural recruitment on tuesday. They were taking bets on how long it would take before this government rolled back on MiQ with a bet multiplier on who would be sent out to polish this turd for the government.
No one picked Ms Adern fronting for the good / bad news, but plenty had thursday as the day.
Heck, you'd have to be a genius to even figure that the government would roll back MIQ in first quarter 2022 from "the first quarter of 2022 move to new individual risk based border settings". Nobody could make such a prediction from August last year.
The town's waiting for it. Poll on Mountain Scene's homepage last week had about 90% expecting an outbreak in next week. (this week the anti mask market gets a similar )
Evidently the presence of, and behaviour of, the Nats was not appreciated by a lot of people around town too.
Good grief was non mask wearing, & I guess non distancing, that prevalent? How disgusting putting others at risk. I had not thought the Nats were that silly.
TL;DR: Here’s six links that stood out to me in the last day in Aotearoa’s political economy to 6:06am on Sunday, May 19:Aotearoa-NZ is the seventh worst in the OECD’s homelessness rankings, just behind the United States and just ahead of Australia. BlackRock thinks rate hikes actually worsen inflation because ...
Halfway up a historic tower in York, we are neither up nor down. At the top you will have views of a city steeped in antiquity, made and remade by Romans, Normans, Vikings, Tescos. Below, you will find a retired minister happy to tell you all about this most astonishing ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Does breathing contribute to CO2 ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: KiwiRail’s seemingly endless requests for more money is damning. At one point, KiwiRail assured Robertson when he was the Finance Minister that the worst-case scenario would be an extra $300 million before requesting $1.2 billion a few months later. Not what most people ...
No one knows what it's likeTo be the bad manTo be the sad manBehind blue eyesNo one knows what it's likeTo be hatedTo be fatedTo telling only liesHave you ever wondered what life must be like for Mike Hosking? Seeing things in black and white through blue tinted specs? In ...
Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two week’s editions.Share More Than A FeildingBike bling, London Read more ...
Hi,I think we all made it through another week — congratulations. I’ve been digesting the new Arab Strap record, which is astonishing. In other news, I’m going to be doing a Webworm popup in Auckland, New Zealand on Saturday July 13. I’ll bring a bunch of merch, and some other ...
The Fast-Track Approvals Bill enables cabinet ministers to circumvent key environmental planning and protection processes for infrastructure projects. Its difficulties have been well canvassed. This column suggests a different way of thinking about the proposal. I am going to explore the Bill from the perspective of its proponents with their ...
New Zealand First Cabinet Minister Shane Jones has become the best advertisement against the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill. In selling the radical new resource consenting processes, in which ministers can green light any mine, dam, or other major development, Jones seems to be shooting the proposal in the foot. ...
Buzz from the Beehive Associate Education Minister David Seymour is urging the PostPrimary Teachers Association to put learning ahead of ideology. He wants the union leaders to call off their teachers meetings around the country where they hope to muster the strength to undo the government’s plans to establish several ...
What are police for? "Fighting crime" is the obvious answer. If there's a burglary, they should show up and investigate. Ditto if there's a murder or sexual assault. Speeding or drunk or dangerous driving is a crime, so obviously they should respond to that. And obviously, they should respond to ...
Michael Reddell writes – I got curious yesterday about how the Australia/New Zealand real exchange rate had changed over the last decade, and so dug out the data on the changes in the two countries’ CPIs. Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand’s ...
Graham Adams writes that 20 years after the land march, judges are quietly awarding a swathe of coastal rights to iwi. Early this month, an hour-long documentary was released by TVNZ to mark the 20th anniversary of the land-rights march to oppose Helen Clark’s Foreshore and Seabed Act. The account ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: Suspended Green MP Darleen Tana has passed an unpleasant milestone: she has now been absent for as many parliamentary sitting days as she has been present for this year. Tana is on full pay while she is suspended, and will benefit from a ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is no coincidence that two Labour should-have-been MPs are making the most noise about public sector cuts. As assistant general secretary of the Public Service Association, Fleur Fitzsimons has been at the forefront of revealing where the next round of state sector job ...
Bryce Edwards writes – It’s becoming a classic case study for why lobbying deals with politicians need greater scrutiny. Former National Minister Steven Joyce runs a lobbying company with a major client – the University of Waikato. The University desperately wants $300m+ of taxpayer funding to establish a ...
This is one of the (extra) weekly columns on music or movies. Plenty of solid analyses of Possession exist online and most of them – inevitably – contain spoilers. This column is more in the way of a first-timer’s aid to getting your initial bearings. You don’t need to have ...
I am painting in oil, a portrait of a manWho has taken all the heart aches,And all the pain he can stand.I am using all the colors of blue,I have here on my stand.I am painting in oil, a portrait of a man.This has been an interesting week for me. ...
Helen Clark joins the Hoon as a special guest talking whether Aotearoa should join Aukus II, and her views on the fast track legislation and how Luxon and the new Government are performing. File Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts ...
With an election due in less than nine months, Britain’s embattled PM, Rishi Sunak, gave a useful speech earlier this week. He made a substantial case for his government, perhaps as compelling as is possible in the current environment. Quite an achievement. His overall theme was security, first pulling ...
Open access notablesPublicly expressed climate scepticism is greatest in regions with high CO2 emissions, Pearson et al., Climatic Change:We analysed a recently released corpus of climate-related tweets to examine the macro-level factors associated with public declarations of climate change scepticism. Analyses of over 2 million geo-located tweets in the U.S. showed that climate ...
You can be all negative about these charter schools if you want, but I’m here to accentuate the positive. You can get all worked up, if you want to, by the contradiction of Luxon saying We’re going to make sure that every school in the country is teaching exactly the same ...
Losing The Room: One can only speculate about what has persuaded the Coalition Government that it will pay no electoral price for unreasonably pushing ahead with policies that are so clearly against the national interest. They seem quite oblivious to the risk that by doing so they will convince an increasing ...
Name suppression decisions can be tough sometimes. No matter your views on free speech, you have to be hard-hearted not to be torn by the tug of the competing arguments. I think you can feel the Supreme Court wrestling with that in M v The King. The case for ...
The Merchants of Menace: The Coalition Government has convinced itself that the “Brahmins’” emollient functions have become much too irksome and expensive. Those who see themselves as the best hope of rebuilding New Zealand’s ailing capitalist system, appear to have convinced themselves that a little bit of blunt trauma is what their mollycoddled ...
When National first proposed its Muldoonist "fast-track" law, they were warned that it would inevitably lead to corruption. And that is exactly what has happened, with Resources Minister Shane Jones taking secret meetings with potential applicants:On Tuesday, in a Newsroom story, questions were raised about a dinner Jones ...
Buzz from the Beehive One day – hopefully – we will push that Russian rascal, Vladimir Putin, beyond breaking point. Perhaps it will happen today, when he learns that Foreign Minister Winston Peters is again tightening the thumbscrews. Peters announced further sanctions, this time on 28 individuals and 14 entities ...
How Labour’s and National’s failure to move beyond neoliberalism has brought New Zealand to the brink of economic and cultural chaos.TO START LOSING, so soon after you won, requires a special kind of political incompetence. At the heart of this Coalition Government’s failure to retain, and build upon, the public ...
“Members of Parliament don’t work for us, they represent us, an entirely different thing. As with so much that has turned out badly, the re-organising of MPs’ responsibilities began with the Fourth Labour Government. That’s when they began to be treated like employees – public servants – whose diaries had ...
It’s becoming a classic case study for why lobbying deals with politicians need greater scrutiny. Former National Minister Steven Joyce runs a lobbying company with a major client – the University of Waikato. The University desperately wants $300m+ of taxpayer funding to establish a third medical school in New Zealand, ...
Time To Choose: Like it or not, the Kiwis are either going into AUKUS’s “Pillar 2” – or they are going to China.HAD ZHENG HE’S FLEET sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks ...
Henry Ergas writes – When in Randall Jarrell’s Pictures from an Institution, a college president is accused of being a hypocrite, the novel’s narrator retorts that the description is grossly unfair. After all, the man is still far from the stage of moral development at which the charge ...
David Farrar writes – Radio NZ reports: The Education Review Office says too many new teachers feel poorly prepared for their jobs. In a report published on Monday, the review office said 60 percent of the principals it interviewed said their new teachers were not ready. ...
New Zealand’s economic performance and the PM’s vision Michael Reddell writes – When I wrote yesterday morning’s post, highlighting how poorly both New Zealand and its Anglo peer countries have been doing in respect of productivity in recent times (ie, in the case of New ...
Hi all,Firstly - thank you! You guys are awesome. The response I’ve received to last night’s mail has been quite overwhelming. It’s a ghastly day outside, but there are no clouds in here.In case you didn’t read my email and are wondering what on earth I’m talking about you can ...
If there was still any doubt as to who is actually running this government – and it isn’t the buffoon from Botany – then this week’s announcement of a huge spend up on charter schools has settled the matter. While jobs and public services continue to be cut in the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Gaye Taylor As widespread drought raises expectations for a repeat of last year’s ferocious wildfire season, response teams across Canada are grappling with the rapidly changing face of fire in a warming climate. No longer quenched by winter, nor quelled by the ...
Half of Christchurch City Holdings Ltd’s directors and its chair resigned en masse last night in protest at Christchurch City Council’s demand to front-load dividends File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The chair of Christchurch City Council’s investment company and four of its independent directors resigned in protest last ...
The University of Waikato has reworded an advertisement that begins the tender process for its new $300 million-plus medical school even though the Government still needs to approve it. However, even the reworded ad contains an architect’s visualisations of what the school might look like. ACT leader David Seymour told ...
As a follow-up to the Rings of Power trailer discussion, I thought I needed to add something. There has been some online mockery about the use of the same actor for both the Halbrand and Annatar incarnations of Sauron. The reasoning is that Halbrand with a shave and a new ...
This isn’t quite as dramatic as the title might suggest. I’m not going anywhere, but there is something I wanted to talk to you about.Let’s start with a typical day.Most days I send out a newsletter in the morning. If I’ve written a lot the previous evening it might be ...
Buzz from the Beehive The promise of tax relief loomed large in his considerations when the PM delivered a pre-Budget speech to the Auckland Business Chamber. The job back in Wellington is getting government spending back under control, he said, bandying figures which show that in per capita terms, the ...
Yesterday de facto Prime Minister David Seymour announced that his glove puppet government would be re-introducing charter schools, throwing $150 million at his pet quacks, donors and cronies and introducing an entire new government agency to oversee them (the existing Education Review Office, which actually knows how to review schools, ...
Seeing that, in order to discredit the figures and achieve moral superiority while attempting to deflect attention away from the military assault on Rafa, Israel supporters in NZ have seized on reports that casualty numbers in Gaza may be inflated … Continue reading → ...
David Farrar writes – Newstalk ZB report: The man responsible for a horror hit and run in central Wellington last year was on a suspended licence and was so drunk he later asked police, “Did I kill someone?” Jason Tuitama injured two women when he ran a red ...
Muriel Newman writes – Former US President Ronald Reagan once said, “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation.” The fight for ...
Why Courts should have said Waitangi Tribunal could not summons Karen Chhour Gary Judd writes – In the High Court, Justice Isacs declined to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal to compel Minister for Children, Karen Chhour, to appear before it to be ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The number of voices raising concerns about the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill is rapidly growing. This is especially apparent now that Parliament’s select committee is listening to submissions from the public to evaluate the proposed legislation. Twenty-seven thousand submissions have been made to Parliament ...
An average of 166 New Zealand citizens left the country every day during the March quarter, up 54% from a year ago.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The economy and housing market is sinking into a longer recession through the winter after a slump in business and consumer confidence in ...
The government has made it abundantly clear they’re addicted to the smell of new asphalt. On Tuesday they introduced a new term to the country’s roading lexicon, the Roads of Regional Significance (RoRS), a little brother for the Roads of National (Party) Significance (RoNS). Driving ahead with Roads of Regional ...
School is outAnd I walk the empty hallwaysI walk aloneAlone as alwaysThere's so many lucky penniesLying on the floorBut where the hell are all the lucky peopleI can't see them any moreYesterday morning, I’d just sent out my newsletter on Tama Potaka, and I was struggling to make the coffee. ...
Hi,I wanted to check in and ask how you’re doing.This is perhaps a selfish act, of attempting to find others feeling a similar way to me — that is to say, a little hopeless at the moment.Misery loves company, that sort of deal.Some context.I wish I could say I got ...
I have hitherto been fairly quiet on the new season of Rings of Power, on the basis that the underwhelming first season did not exactly build excitement – and the rumours were fairly daft. The only real thing of substance to come out has been that they have re-cast Adar ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
“The thing is,” Chris Luxon says, leaning forward to make his point, “this has always been my thing.”“This goes all the way back to the first multinational I worked for. I was saying exactly the same thing back then. The name of our business needs to be more clear; people ...
Buzz from the Beehive It’s been a momentous few days for Children’s Minister Karen Chhour. The Court of Appeal has overturned a High Court decision which blocked a summons order from the Waitangi Tribunal for her. And today she has announced the Government is putting children first by introducing to ...
In 2014 former Australian army lawyer David McBride leaked classified military documents about Australian war crimes to the ABC. Dubbed "The Afghan Files", the documents led to an explosive report on Australian war crimes, the disbanding of an entire SAS unit, and multiple ongoing prosecutions. The journalist who wrote the ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – According to the respected Pew Research Centre, “In seven of eight [European] countries surveyed, the most trusted news outlet asked about is the public news organization in each country”. For example, “in Sweden, an overwhelming majority (90%) say they trust the public broadcaster SVT”. ...
David Farrar writes – Kata MacNamara reports: Details of Tony Blakely’s involvement in the New Zealand Government’s response to the pandemic raise serious questions about the work of the Covid-19 Royal Commission of Inquiry over which he presides. It has long been clear that Blakely, a ...
Chris Trotter writes – Are you a Brahmin or a Merchant? Or, are you merely one of those whose lives are profoundly influenced by the decisions of Brahmins and Merchants? Those are the questions that are currently shaping the politics of New Zealand and the entire West. ...
RNZ reports – It’s supposed to be a haven of healing and spiritual awakening but residents of the Kawai Purapura community say they’ve been hurt and deceived. It’s the successor to the former Centrepoint commune, and has been on the bush block opposite Albany shopping centre since 2008. It ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. Usually we have a video chat to go with this wrap, but were unable to do one this week. We’ll be back next week.Several reports ...
The Transport Minister has set a hard 'fiscal envelope' of $6.54 billion for transport capital spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The economy is settling into a state of suspended animation as the Government’s funding freezes and job cuts chill confidence and combine with stubbornly high interest rates to ...
To be precise, the term “anti- Zionism” refers to (a) criticism of the political movement that created a modern Jewish state on the historical land of Israel, and to (b)the subjugation of Palestinians by the Israeli state. By contrast, the term “anti-Semitism” means bigotry and racism directed at Jewish people, ...
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Because hurricanes are one of the big-ticket weather disasters that humanity has to face, climate misinformers spend a lot of effort muddying the waters on whether climate change is making hurricanes more damaging. With the official start to the hurricane ...
Yesterday the Mayor released what he calls his “plan to save public transport” which is part of his final proposal for the Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP). This comes following consultation on the draft version that occurred in March which showed, once again, that people want more done on transport, especially ...
And it's a pleasure that I have knownAnd it's a treasure that I have gainedAotearoa’s coalition government is fragile. It’s held together by the obsequious sycophancy of Christopher Luxon, who willingly contorts his party into the fringe positions of his junior coalition partners and is unwilling to contradict them. The ...
The Select Committee hearing submissions on the fast-track consenting legislation is starting to become a beat-up of regional councils. The inflexibility and slow workings of the Councils were prominent in two submissions yesterday. One, from the Coromandel Marine Farmers Association, simply said that the Waikato Regional Council’s planning decisions were ...
Back in April, the High Court surprised everyone by ruling that Ministers are above the law, at least as far as the Waitangi Tribunal is concerned. The reason for this ruling was "comity" - the idea that the different branches of government shouldn't interfere with each other's functions. Which makes ...
Buzz from the BeehiveTolling was mentioned when Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced the government was re-introducing the Roads of National Significance (RoNS) programme, with 15 “crucial” projects to support economic growth and regional development across New Zealand. All RoNS would be four-laned, grade-separated highways, and all funding, financing, and ...
or the past 14 years, ever since the Spanish government cheated on an autonomy deal, Catalonia has reliably given pro-independence parties a majority of seats in their regional parliament. But now that seems to be over. Catalans went to the polls yesterday, and stripped the Catalan parties of their majority. ...
David Farrar writes – Radio NZ report: Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins said the Electoral Commission should make sure the system ran smoothly and “taking away the right of thousands of people to vote” was not the answer. “Thousands of people enroled and voted on the day. If ...
The Government’s introduction of legislation that would enable landlords to end tenancies with no reason marks a dark day for the 1.4 million people who rent their home in Aotearoa. ...
The Minister for Mental Health has found the Suicide Prevention Office and mental health support for 111 calls slipping through his fingers, says Labour spokesperson for Mental Health Ingrid Leary. ...
Today’s justification from the Minister for Children for scrapping protections for our tamariki was either a case of ignorance or deliberate deception. ...
The Green Party says the Government’s misguided policy on gangs will fail, following the announcement of the establishment of a national gang unit and district gang disruption units to target gang activities. ...
“With Police pay negotiations still unresolved after six months in Government, Mark Mitchell has today rolled the Commissioner out for a rebrand of their approach to gang crime,” Labour police spokesperson Ginny Andersen said. ...
The Government bringing back 50 charter schools will not increase achievement and is a distraction from the core mission of the education system, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Te Pāti Māori is showing extreme concern over the Environment Select Committees adoption of a lucky dip draw to determine hearings for the Fast Track Approvals bill. Of the 27,000 submissions, 2,900 requested to present. All organisations will be heard; however, the remaining 2,350 submitters will be subject to a ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events. “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
"On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden. “I raised my concerns after being ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools. “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019. “It is my pleasure ...
New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says. “This ...
Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...
Minister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...
Distinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...
Today’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners. “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...
Air Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...
Legislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...
The upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...
“The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...
Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen, Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...
Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...
The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The instability comes as the party tries to refresh its brand after six years of being part of a right-wing, pro-imperialist government with both the Labour Party and, from 2017-2020, the far-right NZ First Party. ...
Based on the latest Treasury forecasts, New Zealand Government debt will tick above $90,000 per household for the first time ever at 10pm today, Sunday 19 May 2024. The Taxpayers’ Union is calling it “$90k Debt Day”. Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ ...
Arawata Shane Arawata Shane had wandered long In the wild tangled hills of the West Coast. He came to a stop on the mighty range And looked down at the wide river flats. He breathed in the clean air, And he took in the shadows playing across The face of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:Islands Business in Suva Today is the 24th anniversary of renegade and failed businessman George Speight’s coup in 2000 Fiji. The elected coalition government headed by Mahendra Chaudhry, the first and only Indo-Fijian prime minister of Fiji, was held hostage at gunpoint for 56 days in the country’s ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist and Kelvin Anthony, RNZ Pacific digital journalist Police have used tear gas and stun grenades on rioters at an airport near Nouméa as the chaos in New Caledonia stretched into its sixth day. Five people, including two police officers, have died and hundreds of ...
Asia Pacific ReportThe global human rights watchdog Amnesty International has called on France to not “misuse” a crackdown in the ongoing unrest in the non-self-governing French Pacific territory of Kanaky New Caledonia in the wake of a controversial vote by the French Parliament to adopt a bill changing the territory’s ...
A major provider of school lunches fears the government's new $3 limit for most students will see them eating more pre-packaged and processed food. ...
The star of Dark City: The Cleaner takes us through his life in TV, including the VHS revolution and the John Campbell impression that started it all. Best known for his comedic roles, Cohen Holloway says he struggled at times to maintain the stone cold facade of serial killer on ...
David Hill remembers an old friend, who you’ve probably never heard of. My friend Doug never travelled; he had little interest in the world beyond his own tiny rural town. I’ve rarely known anyone who radiated such contentment. Doug (I’ll call him that) died in March. You won’t know him. ...
Some of the earliest photos of life in Aotearoa are on display at Auckland Museum right now – but the identities of some of the people in them are a mystery.What was it like to be one of the first people in New Zealand to have their photo taken? ...
Since its founding almost a decade ago, Featherston Booktown has grown into one of the country’s most interesting and idiosyncratic literary events. Erin Banks reports from the audience. “Come in, have you had lunch? I’m about to make a cheese toastie.” Mary Biggs, operations manager of Featherston Booktown Karukatea Festival, ...
After 33 years abroad, Loveni Enari recently returned to Aotearoa and Samoa in what a friend joked was an “existential crisis”. He learnt and re-learnt so much about his family, friends and both countries. Almost as an afterthought, he got a Samoan tatau. This is his story. (Accompanying it are ...
Nearly 30 years ago, two people told me they’d killed a woman they knew. I thought the truth would come out, that others would tell it. In the end, I had to. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Fact: in 1995, Angela Blackmoore ...
Editor Madeleine Chapman looks back at the week and shines a light on some increasingly rare longform journalism. Mōrena and welcome to The Weekend where there will sadly be no aurora to see. After a busy week last week of short, sharp pieces, this week we swung the other way, ...
ANALYSIS:By David Robie, editor of Asia Pacific Report Jean-Marie Tjibaou, a revered Kanak visionary, was inspirational to indigenous Pacific political activists across Oceania, just like Tongan anthropologist and writer Epeli Hao’ofa was to cultural advocates. Tragically, he was assassinated in 1989 by an opponent within the independence movement during ...
Forget thin is in, apparently now bigger is better … or is it? After over a decade of body positivity, girls, teens and women are even more confused about what body positivity actually is. The movement began with women confronting unrealistic expectations of how their bodies should look. But sub-strands ...
Grace always sat at the bar at the back of The Cambridge, where she could watch who came in. A huge mirror ran the length of the pub, so you could sometimes watch people without them knowing. The mirror made the place seem a lot bigger than it really was. ...
MONDAY Sheriff Mark Mitchell rose at dawn. He had a long day’s ride ahead of him. He was headed for Waikeria. Waikeria! Even the name itself stirred his blood, and set root in his imagination. There was nothing and no one in Waikeria. But he would bend it to his ...
The first phase of the inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones finished this week, turning up plenty of revelations and few answers. But through all the confusion, heartbreak and antipathy on display, the simple fact at the heart of this case remains: if little Lachie’s body had ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Benjamin, Professor in Art History, University of Sydney “She’s no oil painting”. Those were the unkind words of a colleague commenting on the subject of Vincent Namatjira’s acrylic painting, Gina. Every one of the prominent Australians and cultural heroes in Namatjira’s ...
Government plans to require local councils hold a referendum on whether to have Māori wards breaches the Treaty of Waitangi, a Waitangi Tribunal report has found. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney This year the National Rugby League (NRL) opened its season in Las Vegas. It was an audacious move by the league’s ambitious head honcho Peter V’Landys to showcase the game in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University Leading music organisations have praised the federal budget for its investment in the live music sector. The budget includes A$8.6 million for a program called Revive Live: to provide essential support to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marnee Shay, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, The University of Queensland The 2024 federal budget contains A$110 million for Indigenous education. This includes funding for various different organisations to represent and help Indigenous people as well as scholarships in a bid to ...
Air New Zealand has confirmed Nouméa’s Tontouta International airport in New Caledonia is closed until Tuesday. The airline earlier told RNZ it would update customers as soon as it could. Earlier today, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters told RNZ Morning Report government officials had been working on an “hourly basis” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Linley, PhD Candidate in Ecology, Charles Sturt University Grant Linley Australia’s unprecedented Black Summer bushfires in 2019–20 created ideal conditions for misinformation to spread, from the insidious to the absurd. It was within this context that a bizarre story ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marcel Scharth, Lecturer in Business Analytics, University of Sydney OpenAI executive Mira Murati launching GPT-4o.OpenAI Earlier this week OpenAI launched GPT-4o (“o” for “omni”), a new version of the artificial intelligence (AI) system powering the popular ChatGPT chatbot. GPT-4o is promoted ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Treasure McGuire, Assistant Director of Pharmacy, Mater Health SEQ in conjoint appointment as Associate Professor of Pharmacology, Bond University and as Associate Professor (Clinical), The University of Queensland Speedkingz/Shutterstock Menopause is a natural biological process that marks the end of a ...
A new poem by Hannah Patterson. Xiāng There’s a pear tree in our backyard And Xiāng tells me She can’t eat them anymore Not after some things that have happened in her life. She tells me, in Mandarin The word for pear sounds the same as the word for disassociation ...
‘Cycling Works’ aims to show business support for citywide cycle infrastructure. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, supermarket giant Foodstuffs lost its attempt to block the construction of a cycle lane outside Thorndon New World in Wellington. The Spinoff’s Wellington editor ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Slow Productivity by Cal Newport (Penguin, $40)Taking out the top spot in Auckland this ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lowe, Emeritus Professor, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University For decades, Australia has exported uranium – but not used it, other than in the Lucas Heights research reactor. But change is coming. We now face a rapidly deepening commitment to ...
"In future I should walk away," Green MP Julie Anne Genter says after complaints over an exchange in Parliament and from two members of the public. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Graffam, PhD Candidate in Theatre, Monash University Gianna Rizzo/Malthouse Music pumps; lights pulsate; two sweaty bodies sway together, touching, breathing in each other’s scent. A male body framed by downlight restlessly shifts between stances and gestures. He undresses. The intensity ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sandra van der Laan, Professor of Accounting, University of Sydney Mtaya/Shutterstock At some point, you or someone else will need to make a decision about your “send-off”. Most Australians die in an institution, such as a hospital or aged care facility. ...
Asia Pacific Report Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai — who is also Chairman of the Melanesian Spearhead Group — has reaffirmed MSG’s support of the pro-independence umbrella group Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) stance opposing the French government’s constitutional bill “unfreezing” the New Caledonia Electoral Roll. It is ...
Producer Susan Leonard remembers her father Ernie, a pioneer of Māori television, and how his legacy lives on in Pathfinders.My father was a fabulous man. His name was Ernie Leonard and he started in TV in the 1970s when it was still glamorous – when TVNZ made behind the ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk, and Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist The suspected ringleaders of the unrest in New Caledonia have been placed in home detention and the social network TikTok has been banned as French security forces struggle to restore law and order. The French ...
Multi-year appropriations - which give the government authority to spend money without reapplying annually - are loosening Parliament's control of the public purse, auditor-general says. ...
Dr. Eric Chuah who stood for a centrist NZ political party in the October 2023 NZ Elections for Maungakiekie Auckland will stand as a candidate for Tauranga City Council Ward of Matua-=Otumoetai and Mayor of Tauranga. ...
If you can’t get to the comedy fest, let us bring the comedy fest to you. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. The New Zealand International Comedy Festival is in full swing at the moment, with a veritable smorgasboard of comedy treats ...
A new poll commissioned by Unions Wellington shows an overwhelming majority of Wellingtonians oppose the Council’s plan to sell the 34% public stake in Wellington Airport. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aruna Sathanapally, Chief Executive, Grattan Institute, Grattan Institute A central focus of this week’s budget is the treasury’s forecast for inflation. By this time next year, inflation is projected to be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range. Inflation has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yolanda van Heezik, Professor of Ecology, University of Otago Getty Images Cities across Aotearoa New Zealand are trying to solve a housing crisis, with increasing residential density a key solution. But not everyone is happy about the resulting loss of natural ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute WDG Photo/Shutterstock For years, the electricity sector has been the poster child for emissions cuts in Australia. The sector achieved a stunning 26% drop in emissions over the past 15 ...
It’s often the last thing people want to do, but asking someone if they’re having suicidal thoughts is a critical first step to helping them. Content warning: this story discusses suicide and suicidal ideation. For a list of resources that can help if you or someone you know is feeling ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy J. Ralph, Associate Professor, Macquarie University The pyramids at Giza, like dozens of others, are located several kilometres west of the current path of the Nile.Alex Cimbal / Shutterstock The largest field of pyramids in Egypt – consisting of 31 ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute ABO PHOTOGRAPHY/Shutterstock Receiving a cancer diagnosis is life-changing and can cause a range of concerns about ongoing health. Fear of cancer returning is one ...
Winston Peters has been on tour around the Pacific while two unrelated crises unfolded, explains Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Two separate ...
This is the Mount Everest of artificial meatcraft.Ah, bacon. Pig’s gold. Toast’s consolation. Dawn’s savoury embrace. If meat was a currency, bacon would be the Benjamin Franklin. Or if you’re feeling patriotic, the Lord Rutherford. When it comes to fake bacon, the obvious question is: why bother? In the ...
From illegal milk to sprinkler bans and airplane ticket scams, Tyrone Barugh is on a one-man mission through New Zealand’s most obscure legal loopholes. I’m deep undercover, investigating Wellington’s criminal underworld. Inside this store, I’ve been told there is a million-dollar trade in illicit substances. A man dressed in black ...
It's a classic top-of-the-market sell-off:
The Masters will rebound, of course. They always do. As long as the left continues to hold hands with the right in supporting the system, the super-rich will get richer…
Yesterdays announcement by the PM https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates should be known henceforth as “white flag” day.
After a lengthy and at times magnificent placing of public health before private profit, the pressure from the NZ ruling class, finance capital, petit bourgeoisie and Natzo driven media must have become too great for the Labour Caucus.
What might have been…in terms of a different Aotearoa/NZ.
Yeah nah the Government finally saw the light and realised that any more Charlotte Bellis-like debacles could prove fatal.
Some people get it.
The writer of that piece also says:
“Life is full of risks and bad things, and we cannot make ourselves paralysed by them. Even those who previously championed a zero-Covid approach – notably the University of Edinburgh’s Chair of Global Public Health, Professor Devi Sridhar – have since acknowledged that we need to move on from restrictions and live with the virus in our community.”
He is absolutely right. Bad things happen to good people, good things happen to bad people, and life isn’t necessarily fair. But we carry on living, just as we should.
The UK's change of elimination was lost pretty early. It's not an acknowledgement that he was wrong but an acknowledgement that there was no other choice.
The existence of natural unfairness does not constitute a reason for adding a layer of human-created unfairness on top. Rather, it constitutes a moral imperative to do the opposite.
But what the hell – I'm over dumb righties trotting out the "life isn't fair" mantra to justify the various built-in sociopathies of their ideology.
Indeed, the point of society since it's very origins has been to transcend the state of nature through collective action.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/remyblumenfeld/2020/03/21/how-a-15000-year-old-human-bone-could-help-you-through-the–coronavirus/
dumb righties
I’ve got no idea who you’re talking about. I’m to the left of Karl Marx lol
As for “adding a layer of human-created unfairness”, I’m sure that Charlotte Bellis and many others who have tried to enter MIQ would agree with you. By abolishing MIQ, we will be eliminating that human-created unfairness.
''But what the hell – I'm over dumb righties trotting out the "life isn't fair" mantra to justify the various built-in sociopathies of their ideology.''
Dumb Righties? Well, that’s to be expected.
Before you mouth off, you should check the backgrounds of people who supposedly are scions of priveldged blue blood stock.
Yeah, sure their are some of those chinless wonders around. They wouldn't know a Maori if they tripped over one, they move in such rarefied environments.
But that does a disservice to those who have worked hard all their lives, build businesses up and made something of their lives. They then decide to shout themselves a Porsche and what happens: lefties whinge about da fillfy rich living on the backs of workers.
Back in the 90s, my boss had a Porsche. He told me he would get the fingers on a regular basis. Once someone yelled abuse at him; ran out and keyed his car. Being a top of the line turbo model, he paid big money to get it fixed.
Bob Jones reported similar.
There's nothing wrong with our ideology. That's why National gets big support from the Asian and Indian communities. These folk know the difference between lala land politics… and real word politics.
Life ain't fair – fact. That doesn't mean you can't change your fate.
Over the top nonsense, TM.
''Natzo driven media ''
The default setting of our media is portside. Has been for a long time. However, they are prepared to go off the reservation now and again when they either want a sensational story…or they are just over an incumbent government.
Any guesses which is which at the moment, TM?
''What might have been…in terms of a different Aotearoa/NZ.''
What might have been? Bhutan with a 1984 mentality?
Everyone is happier, has a house to live in, and has a job?
Your joking…right?
Or are you doing a cunning reverse comparison?
Yes weka, exactly that kind of thing! There should not be one hungry or homeless person in this land of plenty. But we are clearly a “Tale of Two Cities” kind of country and have been for some decades.
COVID exposed the neo liberal state all over again–two tier benefit system, digital divide, overcrowding, emphasis on needs of business and finance capital first, managerialist culture in the public service etc. Working class voices were rarely heard in the media, those quietly getting public transport to a low paid job to help keep things ticking over.
Day after day the petit bourgeoisie whinged… those with roomy accomodation, well resourced home offices, full pantrys and an entitlement to roam the globe as they please, pressured the Labour Caucus relentlessly to end their brave strategy of putting public health before private profit.
Selfish bludgers.
Absolutely TM. Endless amplification of the whingeing priviledged convinces poll driven politicians to buckle. Of course, the whingeing will now only be orders of magnitude louder as the media smell the concentrating of blood. Perhaps an opportunity for the Greens if they can oppose the new direction and articulate a path. Really, managing covd has a lot of synergies with climate change mitigation. Both require powering down with a heavy local focus
“Really, managing covd has a lot of synergies with climate change mitigation. Both require powering down with a heavy local focus”
Nice to hear someone else express that, really agree.
you are hearing more from the privileged as the governing elite are doing less for the downtrodden than ever before. despite all the dreams and aspirations, homelessness and child poverty are up.
I recall election promises from Labour to eliminate them. yet here they still are
"COVID exposed the neo liberal state all over again"
Yep it exposed that alright, not just in NZ but also in every other freemarket economy run system on the planet..and it was exposed as a fact right into the faces of every single human being in every one of those countries…but will that fact be the primary discussion that will be relentlessly and deeply analyzed by our media and politicians going forward?, will there be any serious self critique by them and their role in this disaster…..sadly I think we all, already know the answer to that question.
And we all know exactly what happens when lessons are not learned….
The PM’s choices were stark. Listen, for once, to the people and give them more or less what they want; or, continue to impose a rigid public health response for ideological reasons that the people would increasingly ignore, and deliberately be non compliant with, and prepare to be voted out in 2023.
Her decision to begin to open the borders was entirely political.
Dont doubt politics played its part but not 'entirely'.
As much as many wish to dismiss it, there is real economic risk building after 2 years of restricted activity, many of the SMEs that employ the bulk of NZs workforce have survived through using savings or borrowing and paring their costs as low as possible….that only works for so long. Added to that the enabler of credit for these businesses appears about to rollover creating further demands on them in terms of debt/credit….and now Omicron is in the community likely to further restrict the already reduced activity.
They have run out of the one thing they cant print or buy…time.
Even Howard Kurtz, Fox News reporter, is aghast at Trump:
So there's a divide on the right between those who see any pretext to break the law as workable & those who are averse to non-workable pretexts. Trump, a New Yorker, learnt how to succeed by gaming the system. Rules can always be bent, and sometimes broken if your lawyer sees a way through. That view has been traditional in NYC since the 19th century if not longer. I'm inclined to bet that the US justice system isn't quite so malleable, and will defeat the Don.
I am concerned by what appears to be an alarming trend in covid figures around the world.
Case numbers have dropped, but deaths have continued to rise. This seems especially true of Australia and the US.
Can it be that omicron is not as 'mild' as has been trumpeted?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Not sure about OZ, but the US has a very unhealthy population. Obesity, Diabetes, living on Oxygen tanks, bad overall health, smoking, high drug use (fentantyl, carfenantyl etc). I think what would be interested in the break down of death would be a. jabbed vs unjabbed, b. type of comorbidity, c. age, d. socio economic caste, e. living arrangements to gauge why the numbers are so high.
I have been following the numbers in the UK and all three indicators are falling, i.e. number of daily cases, number of hospitalisation and number of death. (seven day average). Yes, it is the daily fail, but they have nice graphs that show the info in one page, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10473513/UKs-Covid-wave-falls-daily-cases-hospital-admissions-deaths-drop.html
what Sabine said about the US. I assume Australia hasn't peaked with omicron yet but the UK has because they got it earlier?
Whoever started and whoever ran with the narrative that omicron is mild did a lot of damage. It's less severe in individuals, but because it infects so many more people there are more deaths etc.
And if you look at figure 5 and see who was getting covid-19 at the latest peak in the UK, the rates are in reverse order of age from 20-29 to 80+ i.e. the older you are the more likely you are to stay out of the way. Death rates are down because younger people are catching it. Can older people stay out of the way forever? What kind of life are we condemning them too?
thanks, that's an important insight. I bet it tracks for people with chronic illness too.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10473513/UKs-Covid-wave-falls-daily-cases-hospital-admissions-deaths-drop.html
in saying that, younger people who are out and about – working and leisure – have a good chance of catching it again and again. I would like to see some studies to that.
In Oz, it's hard to tell about case numbers because of inaccuracies in people reporting RAT test results, but the stats do seem to show that all states are experiencing a steady drop in numbers. Hospitalisations have plateaued and not increasing, but not decreasing fast either. Deaths have averaged at about 50 to 100 a day nationwide. Not increasing, but also not yet decreasing. Most are in aged care homes and there's an enormous stink over here about the federal government (who is in charge of aged care) not having done enough to keep Omicron out (poor conditions for workers, lack of booster programme etc.)
That is the crux of the matter innit, that Omicron is fast, and by shear numbers of infected people can/will do as much if not more damage then the other variants.
"Whoever started and whoever ran with the narrative that omicron is mild did a lot of damage."…..maybe they stated it because it is a fact.
How do you think that fact should have handled?
WHO sees more evidence that Omicron causes milder symptoms
https://www.google.com/search?q=omicron+mild&client=firefox-b-d&sxsrf=APq-WBtf6OUyjKkSIT_bW58pqff-kXaIjg:1643928951146&ei=d138YcSNCNeN4-EP_q2luAY&start=10&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwiEpazJ0OT1AhXXxjgGHf5WCWcQ8tMDegQIARA4&biw=1680&bih=867&dpr=2
did you read my comment? I said,
Why are you ignoring the point I made about more deaths/hospitalisations and probably more disability?
Yes I read your comment in full…my comment was observing how strange it was to me that you seemed to imply that reporting actual facts was a mistake.
Its as severe as delta,however due to infecting those who have prior partial immunity due to vaccination or prior infection it seems milder good example of Simpsons Paradox.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1489255251987161090
My two cents worth – consensus opinion of medical experts is that infection with the Omicron variant typically results in less severe symptoms than Delta, so it's good that Omicron has largely displaced Delta.
However, due to an unusual combination of mutations that no one could have predicted, Omicron is significantly more transmissible than earlier variants, and so the number of people with an active COVID-19 (largely Omicron) infection has more than doubled (to 75 million globally) in the last month – by far the most rapid rise in active cases so far in this pandemic.
And so, despite increasing vaccine coverage and improved treatment regimes (particularly in developed countries), the enormous increase in the number of Omicron-infected individuals was always likely to increase the number of COVID-related deaths.
The current trend of increasing reported daily deaths (~10,000 per day at the moment) will continue – with any luck the numbers will peak before reaching the previous tragic 'highs' of ~15,000 deaths per day back in January (also a seasonal component to consider) and May 2021.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Pretty much.
Still up in the air as to whether the math will be better overall than original covid or much worse, but there's still no room for complacency.
Who below the age of 22 could do the math in NZ?
Well, probably anyone passing year12/13 math would have many of the tools, but to be sure about some of the stuff like confidence intervals and p values and confidence intervals, most people taking first year papers in epidemiology, finance&quantitative analysis, advanced first year stats, and maybe people who went into quant research as part of 2nd year pols or 3rd year marketing courses.
So literally tens of thousands of young people.
When the data eventually becomes available, of course.
Deaths tend to lag case numbers by a few weeks because usually it takes at least a few weeks to decline to that point (and is often a lot longer with modern treatment and ICU capability).
This government is feeling the pressure. And deservedly so. They have been found remiss on many fronts.
HDA applied the hurt to Andrew Little yesterday. Little accused HDA of having an attitude.
5 bars into the clip ( clip timer not working) is a short excerpt from that interview.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition/audio/sam-hazledine-medrecruit-owner-says-andrew-little-is-being-urged-to-wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee-over-the-state-of-our-health-workforce/
Andrew Little is right, HPDA has a dreadful attitude.
Anyone that dares to point out the inefficiencies of this government apparently has a terrible attitude.
Kate Hawkesby,Hosking,McIvor, Allen ,Russell and all the Tim's on radio…all repeat the very same lines…'hermit kingdom' is a good example.
Seems like every radio presenter has a bad attitude. They need to get out more.
They radiate their political…bias…hard not to notice.
Regurgitating lines by rote…good example here..
https://youtu.be/dguiAWrUGMM
It's a one way street with that lot. It's shock jock broadcasting, and highly unprofessional, imo.
Let us all reflect for a moment on Covid deaths/million:
USA – 2751
UK – 2304
Sweden – 1575
Denmark – 654
Australia – 154
New Zealand – 11
bwhahahahahaha, did she not know her place?
Neither did Bellis. Pesky women with their pertinent questions
I know right, the temerity to question Andrew Little.
HADP shows zero attempt at balance in her 'broadcasting', if you can call it that. She has an agenda, of that there is no doubt, so let's stop pretending she's just asking questions, ok?
I would have thought she'd be a bit more grateful for New Zealand's pandemic response after Covid killed her own grandmother in a country which has very few tools with which to fight Coronavirus.
That she wants NZ to shift more towards South Africa's position and put rest home residents at massive risk is totally beyond me.
As always with RWNJs, personal profit trumps societal good, even when it's your own family suffering.
Not long to wait for Sandra…and others…
'
It is hoped Novavax could persuade those who were hesitant to get jabbed to reconsider, as it uses older technology they will trust.
Novavax is different to the other vaccines being rolled out in the UK, as it is made using protein-based tech – like the Hepatitis B jab.
Professor Paul Heath, who led the trials in the UK, said: "We do believe there are people out there who have been waiting for a vaccine that has been developed with a more traditional platform, such as the Novavax vaccines.
Novavax becomes FIFTH Covid jab to get green light in UK with 60m doses on order (thesun.co.uk)
Yep, I have heard more than a few times, unvaccinated people say they will get vaxxed with an alternative jab to Pfizer.
The last time I heard was our government saying they will decide who gets an alternative jab.
Seems like a no brainer to…me..if you want the highest vaccination rates,offer choice.
or maybe the "choice" was a fabricated excuse all along.
Herald said she said she doesn't want that one, either.
Ha ha I said on another forum that by the time another vaccination was approved she would have another excuse and she has!
By request or prescription (booster) seems to be the current model for AZ.
I know a family of Anti Pfizers jabbers who will get the Novovax jab if/when it is made available here.
Just saw a news feed…today Medsafe have approved Novavax for adults over 18 in NZ.
Delivery expected 1st quarter of 2022.-10.72million doses on order-NZ Doctor.
Had me grinning all the way through! Chris Trotter on the Hipkins debacle: https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-bellis-embarrassment.html
Yeah, Hipkins was the Nats' secret weapon against Labour. Wonder if they'll give him the nickname Patsy?
Well I already explained that a few days ago – they were doing their duty as operational agents of the patriarchy. Discriminating against females is an ingrained default position. One rule for all defeats humanitarian considerations any day in the public service. Special circumstances are no excuse!
Yeah, I can explain that too! Intervening to impose a policy of kindness on public servants would have meant practising what the PM preached. A bunch of hypocrites wouldn't want to do so, obviously. They knew she was just uttering meaningless blather. The possibility of implementing her advice to the people of Aotearoa probably never even occurred to them. They know they're above the people, so her exhortation couldn't possibly apply to them!
From the linked piece:
I think it is more likely those implementing the rules who were the problem, not the writers of the rules.
And here is another example:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/127678928/police-fly-helicopter-over-couples-home-to-spray-three-cannabis-plants
Given the couple’s circumstances: "overkill" indeed.
I think it is more likely those implementing the rules who were the problem, not the writers of the rules.
Except the bunny who was mis-managing admitted a few days ago that they addressed the question of whether to prioritise pregnant kiwi returnees back in October and decided not to do so. Being inhumane apparently seemed a better option to them. Naturally no reason for that decision was given to the media.
My guess would be they couldn't rank them above more serious categories like cancer patients and the like, so didn't.
True, or heart patients overseas.
Also may have felt like many of us that pregnancy is not actually an illness. The over medicalisation of pregnancy was a concern of older generation women's rights issues. Cancer or heart disease are illnesses.
A normal pregnancy is not an illness though clearly travelling during late trimester 3 can be concerning.
There are illnesses that do happen during pregnancy such as gestational diabetes, eclampsia, umbilical cord and placenta abnormalities and these are rightly regarded alongside heart failure and cancer.
As an old time woman's libber I am doing a fair amount of twitching at what seem to me to be rather patriarchical concepts of women being sick when they are pregnant.
That's interesting. Who was the bunny Dennis?
His surname was Bunny so that's how I think of him. The media gave his job title but my opinion of him was already so low that the prospect of attempting to remember that seemed unpalatable. A person of absolutely no consequence or credibility whatsoever…
here's the link to the media report – Chris Bunny
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127642726/mbie-considered-new-pregnancy-emergency-miq-allocation-criteria-decided-against-making-changes
"Well I already explained that a few days ago – they were doing their duty as operational agents of the patriarchy. Discriminating against females is an ingrained default position."
No.
You didn't "explain", you assumed.
With zero evidence
zero
And here you still are banging on about your own heavy sexism.
0/10
So it still hasn't occurred to you that your denial could seem plausible if you thought of a more likely explanation. Any idea how long you'll have to wait for it to occur? 🙄
nope.. not about me… about your evidence-less statements and bias (which by your sentence above indicates that because you can't think of an explanation you let your biases fill the gap – very revealing i must say)
oh and still no evidence I see
Is there any time that you have a good word for Public Servants? These complaints you have do not reflect the PS I loved and worked in for 36 years.
We mostly saw ourselves as working for the public despite the neolib reforms having us work for Ministers. The ones I know took pride in doing a good job, where legislation was concerned and where decisions were required,we carefully looked at all factors and approved where we legally could do so. To approve where we could not legally do so put us at risk from litigation, rehearings and other time- and energy- wasteful happenings.
Decisions being made in a legal context can look at the legal aspects from 'a fair large & liberal way' or one that focuses on the 'plain meaning'. Both are accepted ways of looking at legislation.
We focussed on having the best processes to turn around decisions while still maintaining the prime focus on the legalities of our actions. Where there was a gap we focussed on letting the Minister know this and arguing for priority on legislative programmes.
We focussed on bettering our communications of decisions, of letting people know their rights to have the decisions reviewed. We focussed on being approachable. In all of these aspects we did our very best according to our work place ways of working and the legislation/policies we were administering.
I know that public servant bashing is what passes for thoughtful commentary in some sectors of our society. I am surprised to see it here.
As for the Bellis case. She applied under the incorrect category, she told the decision makers to 'shove it' when they suggested she apply under the correct category, as I understand it, by saying they had all the info and left them with making a decision under the only category they could where the info was clear and where they could get support and that was that where she was living currently may be dangerous. And still she complains and you complain that decision makers were not kind.
I am picking that should there be a review of the process that the the decisionmakers' actions, on the info they were given, it will find that the actions were justified. What also may come out is that there is the potential for tweaking the process. This is NOT the same as saying that the decision was incorrect but that we are always learning to make the process better.
The Public Servants I worked with knew that by doing their jobs well according to the process, policies and legislation was the biggest kindness we could have for the public.
Perhaps a reflection on the chip permanently on lodged on your shoulder together with the mote in your eye could be useful. You are weighed down.
I for one don't value this kind of opinion.
So it hasn't yet occurred to you that attempting to defend an indefensible system is a mistake. Plus you haven't noticed that the attitudes and actual behaviours that caused the problem need to be eliminated. Feeble excuses will never shift public opinion!
It also seems that you haven't learnt the lesson from the deputy PM having to intervene to clean up the mess Hipkins made. You are normally perceptive, so I suspect there's a belief system between you & reality on this issue. Damage control as a political response always indicates damage done.
Trying to blame bystanders is classic aversion to facing up to the situation. As soon as we saw Robertson belatedly conceding the error (even if only tacitly) it ought to have been obvious to any leftist with half a working brain that the mistake was made.
I was not defending the indefensible I clearly stated the part of your post that I took issue with.
You do not seem to understand how legislation works or the decision making process works in the PS yet you feel you can criticise what went on here.
Mere mortals who get it wrong in say Immigration cases or the area where I worked either providing wrong info, applying in the wrong category or late do not get get this OTT treatment she has. To do so is fraught as decision makers risk the charge of favouring some and not others when the circumstances are the same.
I have had years of experiences as a decision maker in legislation, in Ministerial reviews, where this is allowed, Judicial reviews (thankfully very few) , rehearings, Ombudmen reviews in working through to see if mistakes were made…..across three different departments plus working in some health related complaints processes.
I am really not interested in the Bellis case as an indicator of how the Public Service works, sorry. She was largely the author, deliberately possibly, I am thinking of her own misfortune. She applied in the wrong category, she doubled down on her mistake. She has succeeded because she is one who attempts to make a case in the court of public opinion. Bullying Ministers is a game for some, just as bullying public servants who traditionally don't and can't bite back seems to be a game for you.
Many PS with decision making powers have come across the Bellis' of this world.
They are always with us but the reality is that for every 'looka me looka me there are 100s who carefully provided the info, trusted the process or if they were disappointed and felt they had grounds took a rehearing approach. They are the bulk and they realise that if a legal decision needs to be made that it is not automatically go in their favour…..they need to do some work too.
You mention the DPM he also said that the approval in this case should not be taken as meaning that someone can squawk from overseas and get their way or words to that effect.
All systems need periodic review, all systems where decisions are made by real people according to legislation or policy go wonky as we are all human.
If you know anything about the law, or admin law that governs decision making, you will have heard of the truism 'hard cases make bad law'. This is because of the precedent value so that unless the case is 'distinguished' in some way stupid rules can be set in place. This will be what is behind the DPM saying don't think anyone can jump up and down from overseas and make a big fuss and get similar treatment.
You talk of blaming bystanders (not really sure what this means as Bellis is not a bystander) and yet this is exactly what happened in the Bellis case. She splattered all over the news and is still splattering. She did not hesitate to blame bystanders ie people other than the actual decision makers as well as the decision makers themselves.
Anyway this is too much about such an unimportant person….
The key point is that legal decision makers in the PS wander from the bounds of the law, to be kind, if that means approving cases that don't line up with the legislation.
The best way 'to be kind' in a department where legal decision making is carried out is to
have clear, but not set in stone, processes
clear indications of what applicants need to provide,
policy on what happens if info is not provided ie decline and new application provided or we work with you and wait.
good processes to convey the decisions to the applicants, including rehearing or review possibilities
decision makers who are fit for purpose ie experienced and well resourced
legislation that is fit for purpose
processes for delegating up if need be.
I am quite sure any business planner worth their salt will be able to work out what 'being kind' in their own department would look like, milestones or KPIs or whatever and then flow it down to the job descriptions and person specifications and yearly work plans.
Remember when Sir John Key was in power and it seemed like every time National might falter Labour would shoot itself in the foot?
I tell you whut, at the start of the year I thought Labour/Green would be an easy bet for the next election because the evil, patriarchal media had it in for St Jude and would then certainly move against Luxon but now its feeling more and more like pre-covid times when National/Act were in the ascendance
That budget better be a good one
Too early to be confident of a trend. The anomaly in ACT poll ratings is now the thing to watch. There's a huge difference between Luxon pulling Nat refugees back to the tune of 5% or so and having zero effect! Likewise for any continual drifting down of Labour or stabilising around 40%.
If media seemed to be set against JC you have to take into account her lack of drawing centrists back across the line – which would have given them reason to talk up her prospects.
I agree the budget is an inflexion point but primarily with regard to policy spending. It's policy delivery that will be critical from now on. That gives folks a sense of reassurance that Labour can be competent despite screw-ups.
I found it interesting that the poll didn't seem to be on stuff, newshub, nzherald or rnz or if it was I couldn't locate it
But you are correct one swallow doesn't make a Summer and all that
I meant the contrast between the one we discussed here a few days ago (a week? Roy Morgan) & the earlier Kantar poll. I don't do onsite searches here but probably not hard to find…
If you are looking for the Roy Morgan Poll it is here.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8889-nz-national-voting-intention-december-2021-202201310600
They seem to now be doing it every month but they are never in any hurry to put it online. They are always on their website.
How many people go to their site though, in comparison to stuff, nzherald, newshub etc etc
It's probably only looked at by the political tragics. They only seem to do it for their own interest and just toss the questions in during other polling they carry out.
I see it because I get an e-mail newsletter from them each business day with short summaries of Australian business stories. The include a link to any polls they have just published so I see them from there. I certainly wouldn't bother looking there just in case they had published something.
It used to be a very good poll because they did it every fortnight and you could see trends. Now it is once a month and for a while it was even less than that.
Covid Modelling suggested there will be 50000 cases in NZ by Monday.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-chris-hipkins-compares-modelling-with-weather-forecasts-ive-always-been-sceptical/YHVOHODHUI4FHUDO6MAWLLTO7U/
Looks like its going to be a close run thing with under 150 cases reported the other day…
Some of these organisations should give up and start interpreting tea-leaf patterns or something. They would probably be more accurate.
Yep. Friday last week 'modellers' said 200 cases by end of weekend. Still haven't hit that. Useless
Those figures are based on the nearest thing they had to go on, i.e Australian state figures. Our 94% vax rate, better mask use etc may just be working to slow every thing down. Aussies in NSW, Vic etc were more cavalier.
Remember that back in Oct,Nov, Dec in 21 thier projections done months before for Delta were pretty much right on the money.
So, given all that, why are so many freaking out about the border opening up?
The case load spread is low at present,due to most Kiwis managing the risk by not entering high risk situations such as hospitality, and using non pharmaceutical interventions such as masks etc, here you have the wisdom of the masses.
The arguments for open borders and resumption of tourism is an own goal for hospitality by destroying their local market.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/02/coronavirus-89-pct-of-christchurch-businesses-say-red-traffic-light-setting-negatively-impacting-trade.html
Probably people getting freaked out by modelling forecasts that don't even come close to eventuating doesn't help that either.
Dude, ffs, the reason we don't end up with worst case scenarios is because the NZ government took lots of precautions that prioritised health.
Panic early is a wise defensive strategy under fat tail events.
Taleb et al.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572356/#fn5
The team of 5 million are very, very good at Covid health measures. As Adrian said we are very good at mask-wearing, social distancing, scanning, and staying in work bubbles.
Most of us don't do anything stupid because of the, 'no-one is going to tell me what to do' attitude which exists in Australia.
When you throw open the border you are importing very poor adherence to health measures because the returnees and foreign citizens have been conditioned to not bother, it's all too hard for them.
Can't model the piss poor attitude of other countries accurately.
Except a recent meta-analysis of studies shows that lockdowns don't work and should be avoided in coming pandemics:
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf'
From the study:
"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
Covid deaths/million:
New Zealand 11
Lockdowns work extremely well when you do them properly.
That is the problem when only one metric is focussed on: Lives lost to a specific disease without considering other important factors.
Firstly, we don't know what our toll would have been otherwise: No lockdowns doesn't mean no controls or restrictions at all.
Secondly, there are lots of other societal costs associated with lockdowns: eg: deferred medical procedures, incredible stress on business owners who faced losing their livelihoods and the like, and probably a lot of other factors that we may never know until years in the future.
Who knows, history may show the cure was worse than the disease.
For the deceased, the disease has certainly been worse than the cure. Easy to understand why some would prefer to focus on other metrics.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2307207-covid-19-death-figures-reveal-huge-ongoing-impact-on-minority-groups/
Under peer review the study seems limp .
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1489150361390702592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1489150361390702592%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fnntaleb2Fstatus2F1489150361390702592widget%3DTweet
I heard about that report on talkback. A study/model by Neil Ferguson was also mentioned.
There is debate over Ferguson's study. The problem with modelling is modelling.
From the link:
''The successful code testing isn’t a review of the scientific accuracy of the simulation, produced by a team led by mathematical epidemiologist Neil Ferguson. But it dispels some misapprehensions about the code, and shows that others can repeat the original findings.''
Sometimes the science gets lost in debate regarding modelling.
I think studies have more relevance.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y
And from Snopes we find that:
There are plenty of other examples in that link of problems with the analysis presented in the paper. It's basically misinformation.
I have concerns with that analysis – their definition of lockdown includes at least one compulsory non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) which they define as including mask-wearing and border restrictions, and they are only looking at deaths, and exclude case numbers and hospitalisations. A lot of the studies are also pre-Delta, which has a higher transmission rate and fatality rate, although maybe that doesn't matter.
@ TS Smithfield
Well modelling is the very last reason I am 'freaking out' as you call it about the border opening.
My real concern is at the missed opportunities to effect real change in NZ especially on:
housing,
climate change,
signalling changes to our immigration regime
opting for high value tourism rather than a commodity approach, ie stuff them in planes then camper vans and they will come
signalling desirable change to our exports rather than cheese, milk powder and logs ie away from commodities and more processing here in NZ.
All delivered in a quid pro quo manner ie RSE and agricultural tractors drivers will be able to come this year but next there will be a sinking lid so if you had 100 next year you will have 60 etc. To move to full time careers across agriculture.
Huge opportunities to effect some little changes that make bigger changes have been missed. .
Hmmmm thought you were tempting fate a bit there. Modellers right on the button unfortunately.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460890/covid-19-update-209-new-community-cases-reported-in-new-zealand-today
So five days late. Which is a moderately good sign that we're flattening the curve.
Yes I sincerely hope that is the case.
One modeller claimed their could be 50,000 cases per day by Monday.
Better get a hurry on.
209 new cases announced today ahead of the long weekend.
Its important to remember that the modelling (attempts) to show the real incidence….not the confirmed testing rate. Especially in a high incidence environment the chances of finding all of the cases by testing will diminish as that incidence increases.
Yes these modelling people are an absolute joke. Was it Shaun (80,000 will die) Hendy by any chance? How much money are we wasting on these people. And I disagree with Hipkins comment that the modelling is useful (even though extremely inaccurate) rather than no modelling. I think no modelling is actually better unless they want to try and scare the public?
What Hendy actually said. In March 2020.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120604818/new-model-shows-coronavirus-could-kill-80000-kiwis-without-lockdown
So right at the start of the pandemic, when we didn't know how things were going to play out, modellers did the best they could. The NZ government did in fact lock down hard and early and did in fact stamp out the first wave of covid in NZ.
You'd have to be some kind of idiot to suggest they were wrong to do that. Or heartless.
But it was a wild over-estimate though, wasn't it?
We have had 17005 cases and 53 deaths to date. That equates to around 3000 deaths per million.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/
So, if everyone in NZ had contracted covid, it would have equated to around 15000 deaths, nothing like 80000.
And remember, a lot of those deaths were elderly people with underlying conditions. So, the death rate probably wouldn’t have even been that high.
That is far too logical (and not enough fear factor). Government should be paying you to do the modelling for them as you have built in common sense to your model. Well done.
The dude can't even distinguish between 400 days and 600 days (give or take).
Screw the govt, the national party are looking for a new pollster. tsmithfield should probably take that on.
Well, that just makes my point even more strongly doesn't it?
80000 deaths from 89% of the population infected within 400 days from his report.
However, the figures I posted assumed that the whole population got Covid not just most.
So, it makes Hendy's figures even more of an over-estimate.
"to date" vs the time range in the model.
But then you can also wave away 15,000 dead in 2 years, so… whatever.
As I said, I doubt it would be that high given that fatality risk rises dramatically with age.
https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-021-01314-w
Yeah, now do omicron:
Maybe shit isn't as clear-cut as your sociopathic, out-of-date handwaving suggests.
BTW, NJ has 27k dead and twice the population of NZ. Another reason to be thankful for the government we have, rather than the opposition.
Your link isn't working
Here is some good information on Omicron risk for children:
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/is-omicron-a-greater-threat-to-children-than-previ
However, most experts, including many in Australia, believe Omicron is no more dangerous to children than previous strains.
“‘On the whole, most children are either asymptomatic or have a very mild illness,’ Dr Asha Bowen, Head of Infectious Disease at Perth Children’s Hospital, told Australian media today.”
“In the US Dr David Rubin from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia recently said there was no solid evidence that Omicron was more threatening to children and much of the rise in admissions was the result of sheer case numbers, as well as low vaccination rates among young children.
This seems to be in keeping with other available data showing that the actual risk of hospitalisation from Omicron in children under the age of five has fallen in the US compared to the Delta wave.
‘I think the important story to tell here is that severity is way down and the risk for significant severe disease seems to be lower,’ Dr Rubin said.”
Ah yeah: fixed link.
As for your link, "no more dangerous" doesn't mean "handwave the deaths away", while "think" doesn't mean "no worries, it'll all be fine".
Severity down, per case risk lower, but a truckload more infections can still mean "a very bad time".
I agree that Omicron in kids is a worry. I have two grandkids that are 8 months old. So I really don't want them getting it.
Having said that, the few deaths of children in Australia have had fairly severe underlying issues I think. So it may not be a major concern for healthy children. Very sad though:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10472339/Mother-one-Australias-youngest-Covid-victims-says-five-year-old-not-just-statistic.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/two-month-old-baby-with-covid-dies-in-newcastle/100772384
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-09/sydney-3yo-dies-after-contracting-covid-19/100745596
Vewy vewy sad, but let 'er rip anyway. 🙄
A wild overestimate? That is circular reasoning. The reason we didn't have that that many deaths was because of the lockdowns, social distancing masking etc.
And it's not like that exact number was predicted. 80,000 was the peak number (with no controls) assuming an 89% infection rate and a 1.67% mortality rate. At the low end (with all controls on) the model predicted around 20 deaths based on a 0.04% infection rate and a 0.0004% mortality rate (link).
Until the arrival of the Delta variant in August, we were sitting on 26 deaths. Not too far off, were they?
Stuff has an article about what's happening with Omicron numbers. Hipkins was probably right when he compared disease spread modelling with weather forecasting. It's all about what could happen, not what will happen.
The Hendy who predicted 20-30 deaths in 400 days if we went early and hard with lockdowns, you mean?
80k was the projection for zero change in behaviour: no lockdowns, masking, border controls, mobility changes, school closures, etc.
Looking at places like Sweden or UK, he wasn't too far off – still overcounts what they've had by about 10 times, but then they did do half-arse some measures and lots of individuals choose to self-isolate regardless of what their stupid governments might say.
Modelling isn't perfect, but choosing the furthest extreme from reality in an attempt to discredit the projection is as good as lying.
Maybe I was being too definitive like Grant Robertson often is, I will look up Sweden deaths shortly as you say, he was pretty close in his predictions to them so I imagine with the population around double ours they will have close to 160,000 deaths as they didn’t lock down originally.
They didn't mandate lockdowns. That doesn't mean that everyone acted according to business as usual.
"Modelling isn't perfect,"
That's the understatement of the year!
tsmithfield-The Central Otago Queenstown Trail Network Trust predicted that 13,500 people would be using the new (Clyde to Cromwell) Lake Dunstan Trail by 2032.
62,000 people used the trail in the first 10 months.
They must be using the same modelers as used for Covid.
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/lakeside-trail-%E2%80%98phenomenal%E2%80%99-success-exceeds-forecasts
Look at that, something Hipkins and I agree on
If ALL pregnant NZ citizens overseas were given direct access to MIQ the Government would have been criticised by the usually outraged for framing pregnancy as a medical abnormality. Considering that one of the main tenets of the 60s and 70s feminist movement was the desire to normalise pregnancy, no more of the sexist "little woman " and "in confinement " bullshit that was rife up until then. Governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
If the government would have could have…..but it did not. It did not put up a category that said 'pregnant woman'.
Between the misogyny of the left and the right, women will do what they have to do for themselves and their children, alive or unborn, take care of business one way or another.
Yet you stated Bellis should have her child in…Afghanistan, with its hopeless medical facilities!
Reminds me of Julie-Ann Grandstander riding a fucking bike to hospital,when she's about to…drop.-hopeless.
That as Sabine making a political point, which seems to have gone over your head.
What exactly was wrong with Genter riding her bike to hospital?
Both represent a danger to the unborn child….file both under …grandstanding…what if JAG fell off her bike,heavily pregnant.
how many times has JAG fallen off her bike?
The point is not that. She could have, a heavy contraction, a drunk driver on the road, roaming dog, any sort of stuff could have happened. Teh point is, that she did not needed to do that, that driving in a vehicle to the hospital while being in contractions close enough to go to the hospital would have been an ok thing to do even for JAG.
My reply to your deleted comment,
A commenter on JAG's FB page when she posted the photo.
https://www.facebook.com/195454263800226/photos/a.1574461839232788/4916210641724541/?comment_id=4916588908353381
A risk assessment I think she is quite capable of making.
Same, and it was 2am.
Could also happen during the day in a taxi stuck in traffic. I bet she made a risk assessment here too.
that's your point. My point is that if it's not about her skill on a bike, then it's about saying no pregnant women should ride bikes in labour. What about the day before she went into labour?
But duh… Last time I checked she was in the greens.
Sorry. Sorry.
Afghanistan must have hopeless medical facilities and poor catering for births all right. The population is 38 million. Were they all born in some other country?
no they were all born in Afghanistan and pregnant women and children die in childbirth like they are using a hospital in Austria before the doctors there understood that washing hands after an autopsy before working on a women in labour is thing.
https://www.unfpa.org/news/midwives-front-lines-working-reverse-afghanistans-high-maternal-death-rate#:~:text=Afghanistan%20has%20one%20of%20the,die%20per%20100%2C000%20live%20births.
that is from 2020 when the times were still good. And for what its worth, this number is the 'counted number' of women who will die in a hospital, the ones that die at home are not counted.
But its ok, its just women, and women give birth every day, and if they die….oh well that is their lot, right?
If they die they die? We've had all and sundry telling us that since March 2019 haven't we?
What are you talking about? Afghani women who die in childbirth or …..?
This is a very ignorant thing to say. Women have poor birth outcomes for a whole range of reasons, including poverty. I would guess living under the Taliban adds additional layers of risk before we even get to medical facilities. But if you have a pregnancy complication that needs specialist hospital care and there is no specialist hospital care then women and babies sometimes die. Afghanistan has one of the worst maternal mortality rates in the world. This is really not hard to understand.
https://www.msf.org/midwives-afghanistan-we-are-silent-leaders-our-country
yes, i did, and i put a lot of words before and after that snipped and you are very much taking my words out of context.
What i did say, is i think she should find the Medicins Sans Frontiers ( the last NGO in Afghanistan that still provides maternity services to Afghani Women) and if she gets stuck there she should do a daily post/blog/podcast to shine light on the abhorrent treatment of hte women in that country. That would have made for some good news every day, and may have shamed some of those that have no care in the world about the treatment of the women in that country who are oppressed because of their SEX.
And I would like you to remember that i also posted up a nice wordy speech of Laura Bush telling us that we should invade for the good of the women of Afganistan. Or is that inconvenient in your selective quoting.
Fact is again, Dear Blazer, that women will do what women have to do in order to live their lifes safely, and that includes their children born and unborn.
And just so you truly understand what i am saying,
The benign sexism of the left is as abhorrent as the sexism of hte right. Both would like to disappear us into nothingness, the one by way of Gender WOO and self identity and hte other by way of standard old fashioned sexism. Both have the same effect, it is to the detriment of women, and to the detriment of pregnant women.
And last, yes, she did make the government look bad, and that was solely the fault of the Government. Maybe someone needs to educate these highly educated people about sex, biology and how babies are made and born.
I missed this part… 'and if she gets stuck there'-maybe I owe you an…apology.
Nah, not needed.
How about this for radical thinking, If you have a NZ Passport and are double vaxed and have a negative Covid test prior to departure, you can come back to NZ.
and omicron covid with you.
yes, and then they go into MIQ or an isolation facility.
We can not keep the country locked up for ever and we can not keep citizens out forever.
What I would like to know is: Has the government of NZ done anything to help stranded kiwis get Visas overseas for the duration of the time it takes them to go home. I.e. Visas, work visas, residence permits etc.
I'd wager a dollar that if she could have stayed in Belgium she would have. I also wager a dollar that if she had not fallen pregnant she would have not applied for an MIQ spot and would have stayed overseas.
The NZ government can't really influence the immigration rules of other countries. Bellis could have applied for a residence permit in Belgium which would have got her more than the normal 3 Schengen months. She could have also gone to Britain, which has a social security arrangement with NZ (reciprocal rights to medical treatment). But anyway the whole Bellis thing has been thoroughly thrashed out here and elsewhere. I think what Afghani women have angrily said about Bellis should have been given more exposure.
No, if she had already stayed that long, i doubt she would have gotten anywhere. And Kiwis don't actually get automatically visas either. I think that the Afghani women has an easy time to speak as she is no longer in Afghanistan. See how that changes the narrative? Could she have gone to England, yeah, right Tui. Suddenly Covid is ok to get when you are a pregnant women overseas and your government don't care about you? Right.
Again, understand that not one Country in Europe is obliged in any way to take care financially, medically and with housing of stranded dudes and dudettes from NZ just because their government could not be bothered finding a different way to running MIQ, or finding a way to keep these guys overseas safe, housed, fed and with access to medical treatment while they keep the country locked.
Again, your rights to safety here does not over ride the rights to safety of Kiwis that are stranded elsewhere. And the egg on the face of government is because someone in government decided that her case what not of an 'emergency' enough. Maybe get annoyed at some highly paid anonymous beige suit in government who despite a lot of education missed out on 'common sense 101' while in University. But then, just because someone spend a lot of money on education does not mean they a. learned something and b. understood something.
Probably not if you have a negative test and are double vaxed and spend 10 days isolating and having tests on whatever days they now recommend.
No one should be left state-less.
Not really. It's not hard to understand pregnancy as a normal, healthy life event that sometimes goes wrong, and that when it goes wrong sometimes you need immediate access to good health care. The only way your scenario would happen is if the government wasn't competent as messaging.
I still think they should have had a separate criteria list for pregnant women, because as I wrote in my post the one they're using was obviously written for men and non-pregnant women. Which doesn't mean giving all pregnant women priority, it just means doing an assessment based on physical reality.
Westport: build a wall or move to higher ground?
Westport flood recovery: Build a wall or move to higher ground? | Stuff.co.nz
A few thousands ratepayers and a median income of $42,000.
Right now I imagine there are more pressing concerns for those ratepayers.
The map of Westport areas now under compulsory evacuation order is close-to identical to the compulsory evacuation map from last July.
West Coast Civil Defence (arcgis.com)
$3600 pa in rates and $6 per rubbish bag on top of that.
My second flood in 6 months. Knew it wasn't as bad as last time so stayed put… So far.
The town needs some strategic flood walls, to resume dredging the river (all but stopped when the cement works shut years ago), clearing up of the Orawaiti overflow channel and making some areas unsuitable for housing for good.
I do like it here, but if I got offered the market value I had last week, or could have the same house on elevated land for the same price, I'd probably take it – Just as long as I didn't have to live next door to anyone like me lol
the most ludicrous rationale I heard was….'it's downhill …most of the..way'!
National Party after Key baled?
-Close!….Muldoon on Rowling….
Best quote I have heard about yesterday's decisions
'We've moved from being a team of 5M to being 5M teams of 1"
Was having coffee with a DHB colleague today. We were quietly speculating on the odds of the national party conference being a superspreader event, given their leader's insistence on wearing a mask with his nose hanging out.
Once is an accident, but doing it repeatedly as a leader during a pandemic indicates he's whistling to the dogs.
Was having a zoom call with a set of clients who specialise in rural recruitment on tuesday. They were taking bets on how long it would take before this government rolled back on MiQ with a bet multiplier on who would be sent out to polish this turd for the government.
No one picked Ms Adern fronting for the good / bad news, but plenty had thursday as the day.
I mean, you'd have to be psychic to pick on Tuesday that the PM would be "outlining our plans to reconnect New Zealand with the world" on Thursday.
Heck, you'd have to be a genius to even figure that the government would
roll back MIQ in first quarter 2022from "the first quarter of 2022 move to new individual risk based border settings". Nobody could make such a prediction from August last year.The town's waiting for it. Poll on Mountain Scene's homepage last week had about 90% expecting an outbreak in next week. (this week the anti mask market gets a similar )
Evidently the presence of, and behaviour of, the Nats was not appreciated by a lot of people around town too.
Graeme
Good grief was non mask wearing, & I guess non distancing, that prevalent? How disgusting putting others at risk. I had not thought the Nats were that silly.