I am finding it quite hilarious with the amount of hyperbole both Labour and National are engaging in with respect to NZ First, with Labour now raising the dire prospect of US style shutdowns if NZ First is in government.
I think the problem for Labour in engaging in this style of campaigning is that it is not giving a reason to vote Labour. If voters do take notice of all the over-the-top rhetoric, then the only likely beneficiary will be National.
That is, because, based on the polls, the simplest way to get a stable government is to vote NACT. So, the result of the combined scare campaign could be potential NZ First voters holding their noses and voting NACT to keep things simple.
The Electoral Commission confirmed if Bayly subsequently won the by-election his list spot will go to the next National candidate on the list. That would give National one more seat than it would have won in the election.
Oh it’s because either the EC are morons, or their rules are.
Common sense would indicate that given a National list MP is running in Port Waikato he would simply change status from list to electorate MP on winning – thus 120 MP's still – as per votes per party allocation.
I have been thinking about this, this is surely not the first time this has happened and yet I never remember having had a by-election before. Perhaps this was a change done when we switched to MMP and nobody noticed?
It seems so National that they rely on an electoral technicality to get an extra MP in the house, can't do it by honest (ha ha ha) campaigning.
Would certainly be an interesting situation should the NACTS get a majority of 1 or 2. Court challenges would be inevitable.
I don't recall there ever being another candidate who has died after voting has started, but before it finished (in that 10 day window). Certainly not since the longer voting period started – and I don't recall one in the FPP era either.
There seems to be no wriggle-room in the law as it's written – so no basis for a legal challenge.
The MSM seems to think that the death of the ACT MP will help the Nats win the election. This is wrong.
If the Left get 48% and the Right gets 47% (5% wasted) then the proportion of the seats will be decided by these percentages in exactly the same way as they would have been before the death, and Labour will form a government.
The by-election will come much later-National will win this and so they will have an extra seat then. This will only be an issue if the Left's government only has a majority of one.
I have always thought it rather silly that the parties who don't make it into parliament see their votes apportioned amongst the parties that do. It doesn't change the proportions within parliament so why not leave them out altogether. If nothing else it would save money on MPs' salaries.
If we can have overhangs why can we not have underhangs?
That's beside the point. The Votes received by the winning parties never add up to 100% of the total vote.. So why do all the seats have to be filled. Why do the have to have 120 MPs.
While % are used in the cheats quick method before the election , the actual result works via the total votes for each party thats passed the threshold/ electorate seat hoop.
Unfortunately theres amny that think the % is the final method and never realaise that each list MP has actual votes that get allocated
However, if some of the 120 seats were treated as "phantom" seats, would this not satisfy the Sante Lague requirements?
Being a ghost yourself I’m sure you would understand that.
Alternatively you could allocate all the seats, as if there was no threshold, and then cancel the seats allocated to members whose parties scored less than 5%.
Except the ACT vote is in decline because the little jerker for class landlord greed said he would make demands because the poll numbers gave him the mandate to do that.
And National is exposed as running a marketing scam (tax policy) that would have it up before the Commerce Commission for fraudulent misrepresentation – and they still cannot show how it all works either.
The observant can see they are unelectable grifters.
There is less and less likelihood the centre will countenance a NACT regime and the renters and workers need to get out and vote to protect MW becoming a LW and benefit from the FPA Industry Awards.
The Greens need to say they will insist on a 3% cap on rent increases and GR and DP should advise agreement (this should have been done at the start of the campaign). .
less and less likelihood the centre will countenance a NACT regime
That's the point and it's why Bishop is freaking out. There is so much in the NACT programme of systematic looting by the wealthiest among us, that even cynical, self-aggrandising old Winston will find it too objectionable.
But nobody on the left should vote for NZF, because for NZF to have this effect, it must take votes from NACT to keep NACT no higher than mid-40’s. . Left voters switching to NZF does not lower the NACT vote.
Luxon's tax relief for the rich needs to be exposed, too. His calculator says a double income family with no kids on $400,000 a year will get $80 more a fortnight. A double income family with no kids on $100,000 a year gets an extra $68 as fortnight. There'll be more telling examples.
"the ACT vote is in decline because the little jerker for class landlord greed said .."
Good catch. Have you noticed Seymour doesnt even appear on TV ads for ACT anymore .
Un precedented for the deputy leader to talk about ACT and why you should vote for them- although she is trying to spin their negativity of electing ACT into positives . She did after all work for Hooton for some time
ACT already costing the taxpayer c. $1.2 million for a by-election. I wonder what they will cut to offset this cost imposed by their candidate? Perhaps ACT should be made to pay for the by-election from their own campaign funds…
You have to admit it is ironic the first order of business for the party of austerity, disciplined spending, small government and zero regulation is to have us waste $1.2million on a by-election.
It makes $25k on a Pacific leaders business event seem like decent value for money…
ACT being the party of personal responsibility does bear responsibility for candidate selection. Yet they are happy to socialise the cost of that selection.
Are you expecting ACT candidate selection to use psychics? I really don't think that parties can be expected to foresee the sudden death of candidates.
ACT haven't asked for or required a by-election – it's required under the MMP legislation – perhaps you should address your outrage to the lawmakers – including the ones who have been in government for the last 5.5 years. Why didn't they predict this situation and pre-emptively act to address it? /sarc/
Andrew Geddis (from TS Feeds) has written a highly informative piece on this rare situation and says it is written in the Electoral Act 1993 and “really is a throwback to pre-MMP days”.
Thanks, an interesting post.
It's one of those rare situations that it's going to be impossible to get absolutely fair to all parties.
The death of a candidate while voting (and campaigning) is still going on – must have some impact on the vote in that electorate.
For that matter, it may well have an impact on the party vote for ACT in the electorate – not having a high-profile candidate actively canvassing (or, alternatively, increasing vote due to a sympathy vote)
In an electorate with a close race (i.e. not Port Waikato) – and if the situation affected one of the main contenders – it would seem that there must be a by-election.
The question of how this affects the proportionality of parliament seems to be a difficult one. At first glance, the most sensible solution seems to be to ignore the electorate seat, and go on the party vote – for allocating the seats within Parliament. This would potentially mean dropping a sitting list MP, once the by-election was held. (e.g. if the electorate was won by Labour, then the last-ranked Labour list MP would lose their seat – assuming that it's not an MP currently in parliament who is elected)
This has the merit of reflecting the will of the people – as expressed on election day. Though seems rather tough on the MP at-risk of being booted out.
However, that solution would treat a by-election during this very specific period, differently to a by-election at any other stage of the election cycle.
Exactly the same distortion of electoral proportionality happens when there is a by-election of a Government MP during the term of Parliament. This very frequently results in the loss of a seat to the Government – by-elections notoriously punish the party in power – changing the balance of Parliament as voted on during the previous election.
Unlike the death-during-voting scenario, this has happened with a reasonable degree of frequency during the MMP era – most recently with Sharma – when the Government did lose a seat (although arguable whether they lost it to Sharma becoming an independent, or to the by-election). And no one has been desperately unhappy with the parliamentary distortion which results.
I am surprised you, a relatively intelligent person, refuses to acknowledge the wider issue. ACT demands risk/reward be managed by the individual, not the collective or the state.
A health check of candidates might have been in order for such a party of individual responsibility. Perhaps the party itself might have considered insurance for candidates rather than shipping the fucking cost onto the taxpayers who they pretend to represent.
But no, we all pay because they didn't do their homework.
And we all paid for the by-election for Sharma – where Labour notoriously 'didn't do their homework' and anointed a flake to be swept in on the 2020 Labour tidal wave.
We all paid for the salary of Kerekere to sit in Parliament representing herself, rather than the GP voters who elected her. Where was their 'homework'?
We all paid when Horomia died in office (after notoriously bad health), triggering a by-election. Should he have been screened out by Labour because of ill-health?
If you want to ensure that individual parties/MPs carry that risk — then you have to accept that this cost would then be incurred by all parties/MPs. I seriously doubt that you'll gain much support for this radical view – nor would it be welcomed by the Left whom you claim to support.
I'm surprised that you, an apparently intelligent person, seem to confuse the personal with the collective. Do you think that all MPs only gain personal benefit from being elected? And there is no collective benefit to the country of having a representative democracy? If so, then indeed the cost should be personal. Though your opinion casts a rather jaundiced light upon those politicians you claim to support.
However, most people believe that an MP is a representative of the people who elected them – and therefore the benefit is to the electorate rather than to the individual MP.
One way of looking at it is that this kind of rule reflects how lucky we are in New Zealand to have a stable democracy and that the death of a candidate in such circumstances is so rare.
They can't hold an election in India without at least a dozen candidates murdered during the campaign.
Chris Trotter is a frustrating writer. Sometimes he is hopelessly old fashioned, living in the past, and he always hates the Greens. But at other times he is brilliant, as he is in this article below:
The reason he hates the Greens is because they pulled the plug on the Alliance which included his party New Labour. After that only Jim Anderton won a seat. The Greens have carried on. Going back in time Pam Corkery whistle blew Jim Andertons bullying with new MPs
Re this comment by Chris Trotter: "Lacking Peters’ restraining influence, the resulting National-Act government would have free-rein to impose the swingeing austerity programme required to pay for Luxon’s under-funded tax-cuts. That so many of us are willing to see so much pain inflicted upon our fellow citizens, strongly suggests that there is a fair amount of sadism mixed in with all that masochism. Hardly a pretty picture of our national character, and even less so of those NZ First voters bounced so easily into abandoning their nobler impulses by the prospect of a second election". https://democracyproject.nz/2023/10/09/chris-trotter-reckless-speculation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chris-trotter-reckless-speculation
Trotter's reference to sadism and masochism might explain the seemingly incomprehensible deep-seated resentment and vitriol many NZers' have towards Labour, and their support of National. This is despite repeated evidence that National's tax/fiscal plan doesn't add up and that the implementation of any such plan will cause considerable, compounding socio-economic damage to NZ, through cuts to public services and workers' rights, and by allowing foreign buyers to purchase properties. This policy will increase house prices, inflation and rental costs, and exclude many more NZers, other than investors, from the property market.
Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have dismissed as incorrect, Goldman Sachs' analysis that National's tax plan is inflationary, as they have done with other critics of the tax plan.
"The new analysis from Goldman Sachs reported in the Herald today follows economist Cameron Bagrie when he said: “National tax plan is inflationary.” And economists Michael Reddell, Sam Warburton and Nick Goodall have said the policy to lift the foreign buyer ban for houses over $2m will cause greater house price inflation in New Zealand below the $2m mark as well".
National's repeated lying about their tax plan, and their constant deflection and projection when challenged about this, seems to be finally sinking into voters' awareness. Bishop's threats of the possibility of another election might be opening up people's minds to the chaos of National trying to form a government with ACT and/or NZ First.
Yes, Bishop forgets that the electoral system doesn't depends on what he thinks.
As I understand it, after election figures are confirmed (or before if the result is pretty obvious) the leader of the largest party meets with the Governor General and the GG asks the leader if he/she is able to form a government. If the answer is yes the GG consents to the leader doing so, if the answer is no, he/she asks the leader of the next biggest party the same question. If neither is able to form a government then legally the outgoing government has in effect caretaker executive powers until a new government is formed. The GG, not the Nats and especially NOT Chris Bishop, has the right to call for a new general election if he/she thinks it isn't possible to form a new majority government or coalition government on the election numbers.
That is, of course, a simplification of the process but I wonder just what kind of spin Luxon will put on the GG if he is put in that position.
Why would National’s Campaign Manager, whose party is currently attracting by far the largest share of voter support, suddenly start babbling about a second election? …What we do not expect is for the party with the largest number of votes to say: “No, we don’t like the hand you’ve dealt us – deal us another one.”
Not to mention having to pay for the damn thing! Threatening the voters is a novel political tactic from the Bish.
The question now, in the backwash of Bishop’s intervention, is how will the voters – especially those currently intending to vote for Winston Peters – respond to National’s threat?
Nah, fore-lock tuggers have been voting Labour since the 19th century! Analogues in the Nats just say bugger softly, before morphing into the right stance for survival.
Trotter then segues into masochism/sadism. The hung parliament I predicted some weeks ago gets a mention, then this:
Where the polls land in this, the last week of the election campaign, may produce a truly spectacular result.
Weds evening?? He's using (unaware) the Soros reflexivity principle of market forces. The electorate is the political market: voting rather than selling is the behavioural engine powering the voting portion of the populace. Trotter is correctly flagging the spectacular possibilities inherent in the collective reflex response to a poll this week…
Harold Wilson got away with it. When first elected he decided his majority was insufficient to govern effectively so, a couple of months later, he called a snap election and got himself a bigger majority.
However this was not anticipated prior to the first election.
I suspect his situation was simpler. Complex contingency planning is vulnerable to seemingly random field effects occurring in the tacit realm of the psyche, consequent of a deeper order within things.
Similarly Einstein's "spooky action at a distance" take pointed us to such invisible causal factors. If HW was typically human, he'd have intuition as reader of situations within, prompting him to take the gamble.
On the other hand it was probably true that HW was not able to govern effectively given the numbers. I might also be argued that a snap election was the most honest approach to take.
Wilson in 1970 was 17 seats short of majority, so was was well short . It wasnt a small majority like you think. Conservatives were only a few seats behind labour
Heath wanted a coalition with Liberals ( 14 seats) but couldnt/wouldnt agree
Wilson became a minority PM and the second election gave them a bare majority of 3
I really don't see what the outrage is on the Left at the prospect of another election – if neither National nor Labour are able to form a coalition government.
There has been considerable glee on TS over the apparent holes in the National financial plan – and conviction that the electorate are beginning to see through them; along with an evident belief that ACT have peaked and are beginning to drop.
If all that is true – surely the Left would welcome a new election – especially if they can blame NZF for it – and a second chance to gain a majority.
IMO I think Labour was premature in ruling out NZ First.
The reason being that the only path to victory now is a dramatic turn around in the polls. And even then, that is likely going to require a coalition including TPM which is likely to disincentivise a lot of voters.
At the time they made that decision, they may not have realised that they would be so low in the polls. But the problem now is that many voters likely think that a vote for Labour is a wasted vote. Hence, many Labour voters might think there isn't much point voting at all, compounding the problem for Labour.
Depends if handbrake theory influences their decision – it's on the right still, so a matter now of what could switch it back to the left. Hipkins coming on strong in his new style on MR was fluent enough to catch my attention. An impressive simulation, that performance, with enough apparent authenticity to make floaters wonder.
Inclusion of Winston in a coalition would not would not be harmful to National probably, as far as policies are concerned. They would not get their tax cuts enacted, but that would not matter since the tax cuts are only an election bribe anyway, and they can blame Winston for their non enactment. Winston may also be a foil to some ACT policies which National generally doesn't like but which some Nats are willing to support.
However some one would have to wonder what ACT's reaction to this would be.
tsmith-Winston may yet go with Hipkins after the election election, depending on the result.
For instance:
Lab 30 Gre 14 TPM 4 =48
Nats 35 ACT 8 =43
If NZF gets around 5.1% (4% wasted vote) it may feel the only way to form a government that is able to rule is to go with Lab/Gr/MP. The problem for Luxon has been the gradual collapse of the ACT vote.
“tsmith-Winston may yet go with Hipkins after the election election, depending on the result.”
That would require a major backtrack on the part of both Labour and NZ First.
I heard Hipkins on the radio again asserting that there was no way he or Labour as a party would do any deal with NZ First. If Labour were to do such a deal, I imagine that the credibility of both parties would take such a hit that it would be terminal for future election prospects.
Probably more of an issue for NZ First who would likely be better to sit on the cross-benches than do any such deal.
But who knows, you might be right. The allure of power makes people do some fairly contradictory things at times.
The other thing is, what would happen if Labour/Greens/TPM/NZ First had a lead of one seat, but there was the likely prospect of National picking up the extra seat at the bi-election later this year?
In that case, there could technically be a government formed, but an almost certain hung parliament within a couple of months.
There is certain to be at least one overhang seat in the next Parliament after the by-election in Port Waikato regardless of who wins. There may be others, probably for TPM, who would seem to be the only party that could more electorate seats than their share of the party vote would justify.
The next Parliament certainly have at least 121 MPs unless some party has foolishly put less people on their list than they might be allowed by the party vote.
Yep but I was replying to a comment about a one seat lead before the by-election, which would be impossible as there will be 120 seats until the by-election.
If it was a matter of keeping National/ACT out of power Hipkins may consider that he has a duty to the electorate to deal with Peters, no matter how distasteful he may find such a prospect. They say "that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds".
His statement that he will not work with Peters is not a binding promise; merely a statement of intent. He can change his mind.
It's not as if Hipkins and Peters have promised to resign rather than talk.
But someone did promise to resign – someone… or did she?
Under pressure to release the full costings behind the foreign buyer tax element of the overall plan, Willis refused to say whether or not she’d resign over whether that added up. “I haven’t even got the job yet,” she told O’Brien.
If that’s the solution, was there ever a crisis? [1 Oct 2023]
It will be fascinating to see if Willis and her team can persuade the fiscal ferrets to forecast anything like the revenue she expects to book from the foreign-buyers tax.
A pack of sugar-free gum says they won’t.
In that case, if National is true to its word and willy-nilly delivers its tax cuts (an undertaking by Willis on pain of resignation), then the cash will have to come from elsewhere.
In that case NZ 1st would perhaps not support either party, but sit on on the cross benches and vote on each issue that comes before the house, in accordance with their conscience. (If they have one.)
Under MMP there is more than one way to skin a cat. It is old media thinking that constantly frames Labour or National as the two main parties around which all others orbit.
For example, NZ1, Greens, and TPM have not said they would not work with each other. In fact, Shaw and Peters have praised each other.
I said this yesterday, but one possible scenario (and all seat numbers are best guess on current polling) is that NZ1 / Green and TPM form a minority coalition government with just 35 seats. Labour with its 32 seats could then offer C&S to Green and TPM, and say that it will support the budgets they put through. Labour and NZ1 would not have to agree to anything, so it meets the "no coalition or C&S rule". Each bill could then be supported by Labour as required. If Labour were genuine in their support for all NZers, they would have no problem supporting those progressive, pro-worker, pro-family, pro-student, pro-beneficiary, bills. Same goes for the bills that aim to limit the rapacious greed of some.
Under that scenario, which is entirely possible, NZ would have either, co-prime ministers Davidson and Shaw, or (and as a price for his support), Prime Minister Peters.
Now, wouldn't that be a legacy Winston would like. NZ's first Māori PM, and not just "acting PM who is Māori". He would also be the oldest elected PM …
Good thinking. Would require more big-picture adventurism than the folk involved seem capable of – but in principle anyone can transcend during, or in response to, catharsis.
Even negotiating it would be fraught. One would have to address co-governance via consensus politics & adept framing.
I'm inclined to agree, though such a coalition might find themselves a bit short of talent when it comes to filling cabinet posts. However Labour might still be offered the odd cabinet post if that were the case.
Tsm Labour will be happy for National to have NZ first as a coalition partner which will mean no tax cuts how long will National voters take that looking back 1998 didn't work to well for National.Given Nationals history of belittling Peter's, Peter's will exact revenge of undoing all of National and ACT'S policy. 3 yrs of hobbling good punishment for Nationals callus policies of rewarding those who have done well through covid while 70% have done it hard and are still doing it hard.Allowing tax deductability the lowering the Brightline capital gains tax will push the price of houses up with landlords coming back into the property market bidding up house sales getting a tax refund while home buyers pay tax and interest.
I think a lot of voters likely remember that as well, which is why they are likely not paying much attention to the hyperbole from both main parties at the moment.
They say that a week is a long time in politics but some people view the present as if it has been frozen for six long and challenging years, not to mention the ones who still blame Labour of today for what happened in 1984 or thereabouts. No wonder that Trotter still has a fan club of diehards because he’s not the only one firmly stuck in the past.
Incognito – Although Trotter is often insufferable and stuck in the past, in this case, as noted by Bearded Git@4 and vivie@4.3, Trotter makes salient points about possible reasons for voters voting against their own interests to stick it to Labour.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that Israel does not have any choice but to unleash a ground operation in Gaza. "We have to go in," the Israeli leader said, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources briefed on the call.
Israel warns: If Hezbollah joins the war alongside Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah will be forced to face the full force of the IDF, with the assistance of the American naval force that is making its way to the eastern Mediterranean
In messages delivered to Nasrallah from the Israeli side through senior officials in the French government, he was warned that his joining the campaign would result in Israel even considering, in the style of "the landlord has gone mad", to attack his important ally – Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Damascus would also be destroyed like Da'ahiah. In other words, in an attempt to deter Nasrallah, Israel is using American power and the threat to the Syrian regime, including Assad's personal security, to the point of eliminating him.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said this today in response to Israel cutting off food, water and electricity from more than two million civilians in Gaza at the same time conducting a series of bombing attacks on Gaza:
"While I recognise Israel’s legitimate security concerns, I also remind Israel that military operations must be conducted in strict accordance with international humanitarian law. Civilians must be respected and protected at all times. Civilian infrastructure must never be a target.
The reality is that it grows out of a longstanding conflict with a 56-year-long occupation and no political end in sight. It’s time to end this vicious circle of bloodshed, hatred and polarisation."
ChatGPT, the generative AI that went viral at the start of the year, is a good example. Is it an entertaining gimmick, an apocalyptic portent for journalism and the arts, or something in between? It’s hard to say, although we do know one thing: recent improvements to ChatGPT have the potential to utterly destabilise politics as we know it. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/09-10-2023/chatgpt-could-transform-politics-and-not-for-the-better
Simulating the perfect left-wing politician via this tool ought to become a trendy performance art for leftist politicos then, eh?
ChatGPT has a bad habit of ‘hallucinating’ and providing incorrect answers with boundless confidence, but it is still an impressive tool – especially for a work in progress.
Is Nicola Willis, as Minister of Finance, a reboot of the Ruth Richardson years?
Back then those in state houses were facing market rents and benefits were slashed – and at the same time the estate tax on the wealthiest families was removed.
Today Nicola Willis said that the only way she knew how to help those who could not afford to own property (and never would under National policy) meet their cost of rent, was by making it the best time ever to be a landlord.
The brightline test down to 2 years, easy removal of tenants and changing other rules of rental property to suit landlords, slashing the capacity to inspect properties for regulatory compliance and of course restoring the mortgage cost against rent income.
She pretended to believe that this would mean a lower rate of rent increase – as if she did not believe there was a rental market based on supply and demand but a cost plus oligarchy, where landlords determined price based on how much money they were making.
She plays dumb on the impact of NACT's worker migration policy and intent to slow the activity of Kainga Ora, Kiwbuild and assistance to own on this housing market in which those who cannot afford to own rent.
Is Nicola Willis, as Minister of Finance, a reboot of the Ruth Richardson years?
Keeping interest non-deductibility may encourage some of the more highly leveraged landlords to exit the market in the longer term, once interest becomes fully non-deducible. This would be a welcome development as it would ease pressure on property prices.
Do we know the cause of death of the ACT Candidate? The Media haven't even used the old standbys, "after a long/short illness" "suddenly" "no suspicious circumstances" etc. Under the unusual situation of being so close to the Election I don't think it's too goulish to be interested to know.
It's a good point. If, God forbid, it were to be a "no suspicious circumstances", that would be pertinent to parties' stances on mental health funding. If long/short illness, stances on cancer funding.
“I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for president of the United States,” Kennedy said in remarks in Philadelphia… A Reuters/Ipsos poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump and Kennedy conducted last week among likely voters found 14% of voters supported Kennedy, with 40% supporting Trump and 38% supporting Biden.
Clowns to the left of him, jokers to the right of him, here he is stuck in the middle with the third of the US electorate that doesn't identify as left or right. Go the moonbat!
Why, I don’t know but I just watched a debate between Grant Robertson and the forever rude, bad mannered, ranting, screeching undisciplined Willis. It was terrible. Why oh why does she think that shouting and yelling without stopping for breath and not allowingEitherGrant or Simon a word in edgeways makes her an opponent to be feared. Screaming accusations about Grants management of our economy over the last6years just shows she is running scared an cannot let anybody speak in case Grant succinctly corrects all her wild ravings with the verifiable truth. She is out of her depth and her constant reciting Nacts catch phrases, slogans, sound bites etc just shows that she is floundering in deep water. That’s all the parrot knows.
I hope there is an antidote for her. Just about had a panic attack at the constant onslaught
But it does deflect from the fact that she is no finance expert.That she likes to keep hidden by sudden attacks of verbal diarrhoea. I thought Paula Bennett was bad news but this one just plain horrible and nasty.
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Michael Bassett writes – I’m not sure that it’s much comfort to anyone to know that the post-Covid surge in violent crimes, gang activity, ram raids, random shootings, thuggery and stabbings is occurring in other countries as well as New Zealand. These days, wagging school, out-of-control welfare and ...
Oliver Hartwich writes – Cast your mind back to mid-December. A new Prime Minister had just been sworn in, the new Government started its 100-day programme, and Christmas was only days away.Amid all the haste, a report landed that would have deserved our attention.I am talking about the ...
TL;DR: An unseasonally early icy blast at the same time as some long-overdue maintenance almost caused Aotearoa-NZ’s electricity system to black out this week. That’s because a quadropoly of gentailers1 have prioritised paying dividends from their rising profits and adding debt over investing in 1.5 GigaWatts of new wind farms ...
Hi,Before we crack into today’s Webworm, I wanted to acknowledge the fact that Israel is pushing into Rafah. Over 100,000 Palestinians are now attempting to flee the one place that was deemed “safe”.Trouble is, the place they’re fleeing to is already destroyed. Total annihilation is the end goal here.“Israel is ...
‘It has been said that figures rule the world. Maybe. I am quite sure that it is figures which show us whether it is being ruled well or badly.’ GoetheI was struck at a recent conference on equity for the elderly, how many presenters implicitly relied upon Statistics New Zealand. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveReporting on defence spending late last year, RNZ said the coalition government will have to make some tough calls this term to help the force address staff shortages and ageing infrastructure. “These are huge, huge amounts of government spending. It’s a significant proportion of the government’s ...
Peter Dunne writes – I am always wary when I hear that the Controller and Auditor-General has commented on or made recommendations to the government about an issue of public policy that does not relate strictly to public expenditure. According to the legislation, the role of the Controller ...
How Labour’s and National’s failure to move beyond neoliberalism has brought NZ to the brink of economic and cultural chaos Chris Trotter writes – TO START LOSING, so soon after you won, requires a special kind of political incompetence. At the heart of this Coalition ...
And why did the Crown not challenge the Tribunal’s jurisdiction? Gary Judd writes – Retired District Court Judge, David Harvey, has posted on his A Halflings View Substack an excellent summary of Justice Isacs’ judgment declining to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result?As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and ...
Macklemore isn’t someone I’d usually think about. Sure I liked his big hit from a few years back, everybody did it was catchy and cool with some memorable lines. But if I was going to think of artists who might speak out on political matters or world events, he wouldn’t ...
Another week goes by in the Luxon government’s efforts to roll back the past 70 years of social progress. The school lunches programme is to be downgraded by $107 million, and women need bother their heads no longer about pay equity, let alone expect ACC to provide adequate sexual violence ...
Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
Open access notablesA Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future:Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
Alwyn Poole writes – After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
Eric Crampton writes – A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Te Pāti Māori is showing extreme concern over the Environment Select Committees adoption of a lucky dip draw to determine hearings for the Fast Track Approvals bill. Of the 27,000 submissions, 2,900 requested to present. All organisations will be heard; however, the remaining 2,350 submitters will be subject to a ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
At the time of the offending, Mr Ape ran Hoop Star Basketball Academy and submitted fraudulent grant applications that represented over $75,000 in fictitious costs. ...
Local authority financial statistics provide information on the annual performance of core non-trading activities of all New Zealand's territorial and regional councils. ...
Kāinga Ora’s debt problem is serious – but so is the urgent need for more affordable homes, says poverty campaigner Alan Johnson. As Kāinga Ora cancels projects and sells land previously earmarked for development, it’s clear that two issues are set to dominate the public housing narrative over the next ...
By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist A National Union of Workers (NUW) official is hopeful Fiji Water employees who have been on strike for almost a week will return to work shortly. Last Tuesday, a group of workers for Fiji Water went on strike over pay disputes at the multi-million ...
True to form, Wellington City Council’s consultation has been a flop. If they’ve been recording residents’ answers incorrectly, then the only option is to go back to the drawing board and start public consultations again from scratch. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Clement, Lecturer in Visual Art and McGlade Gallery Director, Australian Catholic University Tracey Clement, Impossible Numbers.Tracey Clement I slip the needle through a small loop of black thread, pull it tight and snip. Done. I have just tied off the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jochen Kaempf, Associate Professor of Natural Sciences (Oceanography), Flinders University Gonzalo Buzonni/Shutterstock From around 1996 to 2010, Australia was gripped by the millennium drought. As water shortages bit hard, most of Australia’s capital cities built large seawater desalination plants – Sydney, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria O’Sullivan, Associate Professor of Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin University Students have been protesting on university campuses across Australia for several weeks now, calling on their institutions to cut ties with weapons manufacturers supplying arms to Israel. Some have noted their ...
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I am finding it quite hilarious with the amount of hyperbole both Labour and National are engaging in with respect to NZ First, with Labour now raising the dire prospect of US style shutdowns if NZ First is in government.
I think the problem for Labour in engaging in this style of campaigning is that it is not giving a reason to vote Labour. If voters do take notice of all the over-the-top rhetoric, then the only likely beneficiary will be National.
That is, because, based on the polls, the simplest way to get a stable government is to vote NACT. So, the result of the combined scare campaign could be potential NZ First voters holding their noses and voting NACT to keep things simple.
It may not matter anyway if National/ACT are on 60 seats on 3 November.
National will almost certainly pick up an extra MP in the Port Waikato by election and they will go to 61 with an overhang seat.
Yes that is a pretty tough twist of fate against any alternative government to National.
Why would the Port Waikato by election result in an overhang?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-national-will-almost-certainly-get-an-extra-mp-after-death-of-act-candidate-neil-christensen/D6FXTX4M25E5XBQPJLLETPWO74/
Oh it’s because either the EC are morons, or their rules are.
Common sense would indicate that given a National list MP is running in Port Waikato he would simply change status from list to electorate MP on winning – thus 120 MP's still – as per votes per party allocation.
I think it is a bloody stupid rule tbh. What is the bet that there will be a conspiracy theory come out that the Nats assassinated the Act guy lol.
The nats killed the Act guy so they didn't have to be in a coalition with NZF.
Yes. The party vote distribution is done for 120 seats – which MP it is is decided by party list and who wins an electorate
The Port Waikato seat is to be decided by a by election- even though the current Mp hasnt died so the distribution should be done for 119 seats
If its not done this way then the Sat vote should still occur to elect an MP who will be immediately subject to a by election.
Its ridiculous that the proportionality is destroyed by an event known before election day
I have been thinking about this, this is surely not the first time this has happened and yet I never remember having had a by-election before. Perhaps this was a change done when we switched to MMP and nobody noticed?
It seems so National that they rely on an electoral technicality to get an extra MP in the house, can't do it by honest (ha ha ha) campaigning.
Would certainly be an interesting situation should the NACTS get a majority of 1 or 2. Court challenges would be inevitable.
I don't recall there ever being another candidate who has died after voting has started, but before it finished (in that 10 day window). Certainly not since the longer voting period started – and I don't recall one in the FPP era either.
There seems to be no wriggle-room in the law as it's written – so no basis for a legal challenge.
The MSM seems to think that the death of the ACT MP will help the Nats win the election. This is wrong.
If the Left get 48% and the Right gets 47% (5% wasted) then the proportion of the seats will be decided by these percentages in exactly the same way as they would have been before the death, and Labour will form a government.
The by-election will come much later-National will win this and so they will have an extra seat then. This will only be an issue if the Left's government only has a majority of one.
I have always thought it rather silly that the parties who don't make it into parliament see their votes apportioned amongst the parties that do. It doesn't change the proportions within parliament so why not leave them out altogether. If nothing else it would save money on MPs' salaries.
If we can have overhangs why can we not have underhangs?
Misunderstanding on your part
There isnt more Mps because wasted vote isnt used to count the number of Mps
the number is fixed at 120 plus overhangs but thats comes from winning extra electorates than the party vote would account for
That's beside the point. The Votes received by the winning parties never add up to 100% of the total vote.. So why do all the seats have to be filled. Why do the have to have 120 MPs.
yes they do .
Theres two stages , those parties that dont win a seat and are under 5% are excluded from any party vote allocation.
The remaining partys votes will certainly add up to the total vote that is counted for party allocation purposes.
If you keep saying the number of seats doesnt have to be 120 or all seats shouldnt filled , theres something missing up top.
The seat allocation method -Sante Lague- requires the number of seats to be known at the very beginning . Its been 120 from the start of MMP
better explanation of Sainte Lague distribution
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/14-09-2017/mmp-maths-how-party-vote-percentages-become-seats-in-parliament
While % are used in the cheats quick method before the election , the actual result works via the total votes for each party thats passed the threshold/ electorate seat hoop.
Unfortunately theres amny that think the % is the final method and never realaise that each list MP has actual votes that get allocated
However, if some of the 120 seats were treated as "phantom" seats, would this not satisfy the Sante Lague requirements?
Being a ghost yourself I’m sure you would understand that.
Alternatively you could allocate all the seats, as if there was no threshold, and then cancel the seats allocated to members whose parties scored less than 5%.
Except the ACT vote is in decline because the little jerker for class landlord greed said he would make demands because the poll numbers gave him the mandate to do that.
And National is exposed as running a marketing scam (tax policy) that would have it up before the Commerce Commission for fraudulent misrepresentation – and they still cannot show how it all works either.
The observant can see they are unelectable grifters.
There is less and less likelihood the centre will countenance a NACT regime and the renters and workers need to get out and vote to protect MW becoming a LW and benefit from the FPA Industry Awards.
The Greens need to say they will insist on a 3% cap on rent increases and GR and DP should advise agreement (this should have been done at the start of the campaign). .
That's the point and it's why Bishop is freaking out. There is so much in the NACT programme of systematic looting by the wealthiest among us, that even cynical, self-aggrandising old Winston will find it too objectionable.
But nobody on the left should vote for NZF, because for NZF to have this effect, it must take votes from NACT to keep NACT no higher than mid-40’s. . Left voters switching to NZF does not lower the NACT vote.
Luxon's tax relief for the rich needs to be exposed, too. His calculator says a double income family with no kids on $400,000 a year will get $80 more a fortnight. A double income family with no kids on $100,000 a year gets an extra $68 as fortnight. There'll be more telling examples.
"the ACT vote is in decline because the little jerker for class landlord greed said .."
Good catch. Have you noticed Seymour doesnt even appear on TV ads for ACT anymore .
Un precedented for the deputy leader to talk about ACT and why you should vote for them- although she is trying to spin their negativity of electing ACT into positives . She did after all work for Hooton for some time
ACT already costing the taxpayer c. $1.2 million for a by-election. I wonder what they will cut to offset this cost imposed by their candidate? Perhaps ACT should be made to pay for the by-election from their own campaign funds…
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-by-election-to-be-held-right-after-election-after-candidate-dies.html
The guy didn't die on purpose you know! In fact he would probably rather not have caused a by-election. It does seem a crazy rule.
You really are sick aren't you? Blaming ACT because a candidate died.
I'll bet you didn't complain about the cost of a by-election after Norm Kirk died.
To be fair, I think MuttonB is not aware yet of what the Electoral Act says. Bit much to call him "sick" imo.
User pays Alwyn , Have you never heard of it
You have to admit it is ironic the first order of business for the party of austerity, disciplined spending, small government and zero regulation is to have us waste $1.2million on a by-election.
It makes $25k on a Pacific leaders business event seem like decent value for money…
Dear me. Amazing how a by-election (which the Left have no prospect of winning) suddenly becomes a 'waste'.
One of the costs of having a democracy is that of holding elections.
It would be soooo much cheaper to just install a dictator /sarc/
ACT being the party of personal responsibility does bear responsibility for candidate selection. Yet they are happy to socialise the cost of that selection.
Are you expecting ACT candidate selection to use psychics? I really don't think that parties can be expected to foresee the sudden death of candidates.
ACT haven't asked for or required a by-election – it's required under the MMP legislation – perhaps you should address your outrage to the lawmakers – including the ones who have been in government for the last 5.5 years. Why didn't they predict this situation and pre-emptively act to address it? /sarc/
Andrew Geddis (from TS Feeds) has written a highly informative piece on this rare situation and says it is written in the Electoral Act 1993 and “really is a throwback to pre-MMP days”.
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-does-port-waikatos-plus-one-mean-for-our-election
Thanks, an interesting post.
It's one of those rare situations that it's going to be impossible to get absolutely fair to all parties.
The death of a candidate while voting (and campaigning) is still going on – must have some impact on the vote in that electorate.
For that matter, it may well have an impact on the party vote for ACT in the electorate – not having a high-profile candidate actively canvassing (or, alternatively, increasing vote due to a sympathy vote)
In an electorate with a close race (i.e. not Port Waikato) – and if the situation affected one of the main contenders – it would seem that there must be a by-election.
The question of how this affects the proportionality of parliament seems to be a difficult one. At first glance, the most sensible solution seems to be to ignore the electorate seat, and go on the party vote – for allocating the seats within Parliament. This would potentially mean dropping a sitting list MP, once the by-election was held. (e.g. if the electorate was won by Labour, then the last-ranked Labour list MP would lose their seat – assuming that it's not an MP currently in parliament who is elected)
This has the merit of reflecting the will of the people – as expressed on election day. Though seems rather tough on the MP at-risk of being booted out.
However, that solution would treat a by-election during this very specific period, differently to a by-election at any other stage of the election cycle.
Exactly the same distortion of electoral proportionality happens when there is a by-election of a Government MP during the term of Parliament. This very frequently results in the loss of a seat to the Government – by-elections notoriously punish the party in power – changing the balance of Parliament as voted on during the previous election.
Unlike the death-during-voting scenario, this has happened with a reasonable degree of frequency during the MMP era – most recently with Sharma – when the Government did lose a seat (although arguable whether they lost it to Sharma becoming an independent, or to the by-election). And no one has been desperately unhappy with the parliamentary distortion which results.
I am surprised you, a relatively intelligent person, refuses to acknowledge the wider issue. ACT demands risk/reward be managed by the individual, not the collective or the state.
A health check of candidates might have been in order for such a party of individual responsibility. Perhaps the party itself might have considered insurance for candidates rather than shipping the fucking cost onto the taxpayers who they pretend to represent.
But no, we all pay because they didn't do their homework.
And we all paid for the by-election for Sharma – where Labour notoriously 'didn't do their homework' and anointed a flake to be swept in on the 2020 Labour tidal wave.
We all paid for the salary of Kerekere to sit in Parliament representing herself, rather than the GP voters who elected her. Where was their 'homework'?
We all paid when Horomia died in office (after notoriously bad health), triggering a by-election. Should he have been screened out by Labour because of ill-health?
If you want to ensure that individual parties/MPs carry that risk — then you have to accept that this cost would then be incurred by all parties/MPs. I seriously doubt that you'll gain much support for this radical view – nor would it be welcomed by the Left whom you claim to support.
I'm surprised that you, an apparently intelligent person, seem to confuse the personal with the collective. Do you think that all MPs only gain personal benefit from being elected? And there is no collective benefit to the country of having a representative democracy? If so, then indeed the cost should be personal. Though your opinion casts a rather jaundiced light upon those politicians you claim to support.
However, most people believe that an MP is a representative of the people who elected them – and therefore the benefit is to the electorate rather than to the individual MP.
How convenient ACT demands risk management from constituents, but not from itself nor its candidates.
One way of looking at it is that this kind of rule reflects how lucky we are in New Zealand to have a stable democracy and that the death of a candidate in such circumstances is so rare.
They can't hold an election in India without at least a dozen candidates murdered during the campaign.
Looks like Winston & NZF are your best bet then.
Chris Trotter is a frustrating writer. Sometimes he is hopelessly old fashioned, living in the past, and he always hates the Greens. But at other times he is brilliant, as he is in this article below:
https://democracyproject.nz/2023/10/09/chris-trotter-reckless-speculation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chris-trotter-reckless-speculation
Conclusion: Chris Bishop may well have lost the election for the Right.
Indeed. While you were posting this I was writing a response to Trotter, see below.
Things got interestinger due to the Bishflap…
The reason he hates the Greens is because they pulled the plug on the Alliance which included his party New Labour. After that only Jim Anderton won a seat. The Greens have carried on. Going back in time Pam Corkery whistle blew Jim Andertons bullying with new MPs
New Labour had 2 Mps for a while , Anderton was the only one , before and after , who ever won a seat for Alliance
Tricle-thanks for that background; it explains a lot.
Re this comment by Chris Trotter: "Lacking Peters’ restraining influence, the resulting National-Act government would have free-rein to impose the swingeing austerity programme required to pay for Luxon’s under-funded tax-cuts. That so many of us are willing to see so much pain inflicted upon our fellow citizens, strongly suggests that there is a fair amount of sadism mixed in with all that masochism. Hardly a pretty picture of our national character, and even less so of those NZ First voters bounced so easily into abandoning their nobler impulses by the prospect of a second election". https://democracyproject.nz/2023/10/09/chris-trotter-reckless-speculation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chris-trotter-reckless-speculation
Trotter's reference to sadism and masochism might explain the seemingly incomprehensible deep-seated resentment and vitriol many NZers' have towards Labour, and their support of National. This is despite repeated evidence that National's tax/fiscal plan doesn't add up and that the implementation of any such plan will cause considerable, compounding socio-economic damage to NZ, through cuts to public services and workers' rights, and by allowing foreign buyers to purchase properties. This policy will increase house prices, inflation and rental costs, and exclude many more NZers, other than investors, from the property market.
Chris Bishop has claimed that Labour was playing "gutter politics", because Grant Robertson stated fact about National's tax plan and called it a scam. https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/05-10-2023/labour-calls-national-tax-plan-a-scam-after-claims-of-gutter-politics
Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have dismissed as incorrect, Goldman Sachs' analysis that National's tax plan is inflationary, as they have done with other critics of the tax plan.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2310/S00025/nationals-tax-plan-likely-to-push-up-kiwis-mortgage-rates.htm
"The new analysis from Goldman Sachs reported in the Herald today follows economist Cameron Bagrie when he said: “National tax plan is inflationary.” And economists Michael Reddell, Sam Warburton and Nick Goodall have said the policy to lift the foreign buyer ban for houses over $2m will cause greater house price inflation in New Zealand below the $2m mark as well".
After repeated challenging of National's tax plan: https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/05-10-2023/nicola-willis-confirms-only-3000-households-will-get-full-250-a-fortnight-tax-cut
National's repeated lying about their tax plan, and their constant deflection and projection when challenged about this, seems to be finally sinking into voters' awareness. Bishop's threats of the possibility of another election might be opening up people's minds to the chaos of National trying to form a government with ACT and/or NZ First.
Yes, Bishop forgets that the electoral system doesn't depends on what he thinks.
As I understand it, after election figures are confirmed (or before if the result is pretty obvious) the leader of the largest party meets with the Governor General and the GG asks the leader if he/she is able to form a government. If the answer is yes the GG consents to the leader doing so, if the answer is no, he/she asks the leader of the next biggest party the same question. If neither is able to form a government then legally the outgoing government has in effect caretaker executive powers until a new government is formed. The GG, not the Nats and especially NOT Chris Bishop, has the right to call for a new general election if he/she thinks it isn't possible to form a new majority government or coalition government on the election numbers.
That is, of course, a simplification of the process but I wonder just what kind of spin Luxon will put on the GG if he is put in that position.
Remember the bleating of the Nats in 2017.
But we won the most seats!
How are we not the government.
Its an injustice, it is!
A corrupt system!
We didn't lose……we was robbed!………..
Trotter's hot to trot:
Not to mention having to pay for the damn thing! Threatening the voters is a novel political tactic from the Bish.
Head for the hills in all directions, I suspect.
Nah, fore-lock tuggers have been voting Labour since the 19th century! Analogues in the Nats just say bugger softly, before morphing into the right stance for survival.
Trotter then segues into masochism/sadism. The hung parliament I predicted some weeks ago gets a mention, then this:
Weds evening?? He's using (unaware) the Soros reflexivity principle of market forces. The electorate is the political market: voting rather than selling is the behavioural engine powering the voting portion of the populace. Trotter is correctly flagging the spectacular possibilities inherent in the collective reflex response to a poll this week…
Harold Wilson got away with it. When first elected he decided his majority was insufficient to govern effectively so, a couple of months later, he called a snap election and got himself a bigger majority.
However this was not anticipated prior to the first election.
I suspect his situation was simpler. Complex contingency planning is vulnerable to seemingly random field effects occurring in the tacit realm of the psyche, consequent of a deeper order within things.
Similarly Einstein's "spooky action at a distance" take pointed us to such invisible causal factors. If HW was typically human, he'd have intuition as reader of situations within, prompting him to take the gamble.
On the other hand it was probably true that HW was not able to govern effectively given the numbers. I might also be argued that a snap election was the most honest approach to take.
Wilson in 1970 was 17 seats short of majority, so was was well short . It wasnt a small majority like you think. Conservatives were only a few seats behind labour
Heath wanted a coalition with Liberals ( 14 seats) but couldnt/wouldnt agree
Wilson became a minority PM and the second election gave them a bare majority of 3
I really don't see what the outrage is on the Left at the prospect of another election – if neither National nor Labour are able to form a coalition government.
There has been considerable glee on TS over the apparent holes in the National financial plan – and conviction that the electorate are beginning to see through them; along with an evident belief that ACT have peaked and are beginning to drop.
If all that is true – surely the Left would welcome a new election – especially if they can blame NZF for it – and a second chance to gain a majority.
IMO I think Labour was premature in ruling out NZ First.
The reason being that the only path to victory now is a dramatic turn around in the polls. And even then, that is likely going to require a coalition including TPM which is likely to disincentivise a lot of voters.
At the time they made that decision, they may not have realised that they would be so low in the polls. But the problem now is that many voters likely think that a vote for Labour is a wasted vote. Hence, many Labour voters might think there isn't much point voting at all, compounding the problem for Labour.
Depends if handbrake theory influences their decision – it's on the right still, so a matter now of what could switch it back to the left. Hipkins coming on strong in his new style on MR was fluent enough to catch my attention. An impressive simulation, that performance, with enough apparent authenticity to make floaters wonder.
Inclusion of Winston in a coalition would not would not be harmful to National probably, as far as policies are concerned. They would not get their tax cuts enacted, but that would not matter since the tax cuts are only an election bribe anyway, and they can blame Winston for their non enactment. Winston may also be a foil to some ACT policies which National generally doesn't like but which some Nats are willing to support.
However some one would have to wonder what ACT's reaction to this would be.
tsmith-Winston may yet go with Hipkins after the election election, depending on the result.
For instance:
Lab 30 Gre 14 TPM 4 =48
Nats 35 ACT 8 =43
If NZF gets around 5.1% (4% wasted vote) it may feel the only way to form a government that is able to rule is to go with Lab/Gr/MP. The problem for Luxon has been the gradual collapse of the ACT vote.
“tsmith-Winston may yet go with Hipkins after the election election, depending on the result.”
That would require a major backtrack on the part of both Labour and NZ First.
I heard Hipkins on the radio again asserting that there was no way he or Labour as a party would do any deal with NZ First. If Labour were to do such a deal, I imagine that the credibility of both parties would take such a hit that it would be terminal for future election prospects.
Probably more of an issue for NZ First who would likely be better to sit on the cross-benches than do any such deal.
But who knows, you might be right. The allure of power makes people do some fairly contradictory things at times.
The other thing is, what would happen if Labour/Greens/TPM/NZ First had a lead of one seat, but there was the likely prospect of National picking up the extra seat at the bi-election later this year?
In that case, there could technically be a government formed, but an almost certain hung parliament within a couple of months.
"…what would happen if Labour/Greens/TPM/NZ First had a lead of one seat…"
No party or combination of parties could have a lead of 1 seat with an even number of seats available. (120)
Under this scenario there would be an extra seat though.
Yea but not until the by-election and you were talking about a lead of one seat before the by-election.
There is certain to be at least one overhang seat in the next Parliament after the by-election in Port Waikato regardless of who wins. There may be others, probably for TPM, who would seem to be the only party that could more electorate seats than their share of the party vote would justify.
The next Parliament certainly have at least 121 MPs unless some party has foolishly put less people on their list than they might be allowed by the party vote.
Yep but I was replying to a comment about a one seat lead before the by-election, which would be impossible as there will be 120 seats until the by-election.
If it was a matter of keeping National/ACT out of power Hipkins may consider that he has a duty to the electorate to deal with Peters, no matter how distasteful he may find such a prospect. They say "that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds".
His statement that he will not work with Peters is not a binding promise; merely a statement of intent. He can change his mind.
It's not as if Hipkins and Peters have promised to resign rather than talk.
But someone did promise to resign – someone… or did she?
In that case NZ 1st would perhaps not support either party, but sit on on the cross benches and vote on each issue that comes before the house, in accordance with their conscience. (If they have one.)
He could enter into a C&S agreement with Labour. Labour couldn't prevent that even if they were unwilling to be associated with NZ1st.
Not really.
Under MMP there is more than one way to skin a cat. It is old media thinking that constantly frames Labour or National as the two main parties around which all others orbit.
For example, NZ1, Greens, and TPM have not said they would not work with each other. In fact, Shaw and Peters have praised each other.
I said this yesterday, but one possible scenario (and all seat numbers are best guess on current polling) is that NZ1 / Green and TPM form a minority coalition government with just 35 seats. Labour with its 32 seats could then offer C&S to Green and TPM, and say that it will support the budgets they put through. Labour and NZ1 would not have to agree to anything, so it meets the "no coalition or C&S rule". Each bill could then be supported by Labour as required. If Labour were genuine in their support for all NZers, they would have no problem supporting those progressive, pro-worker, pro-family, pro-student, pro-beneficiary, bills. Same goes for the bills that aim to limit the rapacious greed of some.
Under that scenario, which is entirely possible, NZ would have either, co-prime ministers Davidson and Shaw, or (and as a price for his support), Prime Minister Peters.
Now, wouldn't that be a legacy Winston would like. NZ's first Māori PM, and not just "acting PM who is Māori". He would also be the oldest elected PM …
Good thinking. Would require more big-picture adventurism than the folk involved seem capable of – but in principle anyone can transcend during, or in response to, catharsis.
Even negotiating it would be fraught. One would have to address co-governance via consensus politics & adept framing.
I'm inclined to agree, though such a coalition might find themselves a bit short of talent when it comes to filling cabinet posts. However Labour might still be offered the odd cabinet post if that were the case.
Maybe the time is right for a Cross Party Coalition of NZF/Greens/TMP I think NZ has had enough of Pepsi & Coke.
Tsm Labour will be happy for National to have NZ first as a coalition partner which will mean no tax cuts how long will National voters take that looking back 1998 didn't work to well for National.Given Nationals history of belittling Peter's, Peter's will exact revenge of undoing all of National and ACT'S policy. 3 yrs of hobbling good punishment for Nationals callus policies of rewarding those who have done well through covid while 70% have done it hard and are still doing it hard.Allowing tax deductability the lowering the Brightline capital gains tax will push the price of houses up with landlords coming back into the property market bidding up house sales getting a tax refund while home buyers pay tax and interest.
I don't understand why NZF & Labour are at logger heads, I thought they were quite constructive in Coalition 2017.
I think a lot of voters likely remember that as well, which is why they are likely not paying much attention to the hyperbole from both main parties at the moment.
They say that a week is a long time in politics but some people view the present as if it has been frozen for six long and challenging years, not to mention the ones who still blame Labour of today for what happened in 1984 or thereabouts. No wonder that Trotter still has a fan club of diehards because he’s not the only one firmly stuck in the past.
Incognito – Although Trotter is often insufferable and stuck in the past, in this case, as noted by Bearded Git@4 and vivie@4.3, Trotter makes salient points about possible reasons for voters voting against their own interests to stick it to Labour.
"not to mention the ones who still blame Labour of today for what happened in 1984 or thereabouts."
Is there much that current Labour have undone of 1984 Labour (and National for that matter).
Awful times ahead.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that Israel does not have any choice but to unleash a ground operation in Gaza. "We have to go in," the Israeli leader said, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources briefed on the call.
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/09/netanyahu-ground-invasion-gaza-israel-hamas-biden
Israel warns: If Hezbollah joins the war alongside Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah will be forced to face the full force of the IDF, with the assistance of the American naval force that is making its way to the eastern Mediterranean
In messages delivered to Nasrallah from the Israeli side through senior officials in the French government, he was warned that his joining the campaign would result in Israel even considering, in the style of "the landlord has gone mad", to attack his important ally – Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Damascus would also be destroyed like Da'ahiah. In other words, in an attempt to deter Nasrallah, Israel is using American power and the threat to the Syrian regime, including Assad's personal security, to the point of eliminating him.
https://www-ynet-co-il.translate.goog/news/article/sktkysb11a?_x_tr_sl=iw&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true
edit:
Steve Herman
@w7voa@journa.host
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Total of 300,000 reservists now mobilized, announces IDF LTC (Res.) Jonathan Conricus.
https://journa.host/@w7voa/111206343634532910
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said this today in response to Israel cutting off food, water and electricity from more than two million civilians in Gaza at the same time conducting a series of bombing attacks on Gaza:
"While I recognise Israel’s legitimate security concerns, I also remind Israel that military operations must be conducted in strict accordance with international humanitarian law. Civilians must be respected and protected at all times. Civilian infrastructure must never be a target.
The reality is that it grows out of a longstanding conflict with a 56-year-long occupation and no political end in sight. It’s time to end this vicious circle of bloodshed, hatred and polarisation."
Factoring in the future:
Simulating the perfect left-wing politician via this tool ought to become a trendy performance art for leftist politicos then, eh?
See, I was right!!
Is Nicola Willis, as Minister of Finance, a reboot of the Ruth Richardson years?
Back then those in state houses were facing market rents and benefits were slashed – and at the same time the estate tax on the wealthiest families was removed.
Today Nicola Willis said that the only way she knew how to help those who could not afford to own property (and never would under National policy) meet their cost of rent, was by making it the best time ever to be a landlord.
The brightline test down to 2 years, easy removal of tenants and changing other rules of rental property to suit landlords, slashing the capacity to inspect properties for regulatory compliance and of course restoring the mortgage cost against rent income.
She pretended to believe that this would mean a lower rate of rent increase – as if she did not believe there was a rental market based on supply and demand but a cost plus oligarchy, where landlords determined price based on how much money they were making.
She plays dumb on the impact of NACT's worker migration policy and intent to slow the activity of Kainga Ora, Kiwbuild and assistance to own on this housing market in which those who cannot afford to own rent.
Is Nicola Willis, as Minister of Finance, a reboot of the Ruth Richardson years?
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Screenshot-2023-10-08-at-3.55.25-PM-768×711.png
Keeping interest non-deductibility may encourage some of the more highly leveraged landlords to exit the market in the longer term, once interest becomes fully non-deducible. This would be a welcome development as it would ease pressure on property prices.
Sure, and the point was to encourage a re-direction of investment to new builds – for which there was an allowance to deduct mortgage as a cost.
Do we know the cause of death of the ACT Candidate? The Media haven't even used the old standbys, "after a long/short illness" "suddenly" "no suspicious circumstances" etc. Under the unusual situation of being so close to the Election I don't think it's too goulish to be interested to know.
It's a good point. If, God forbid, it were to be a "no suspicious circumstances", that would be pertinent to parties' stances on mental health funding. If long/short illness, stances on cancer funding.
Environmentalist flies solo:
Clowns to the left of him, jokers to the right of him, here he is stuck in the middle with the third of the US electorate that doesn't identify as left or right. Go the moonbat!
Why, I don’t know but I just watched a debate between Grant Robertson and the forever rude, bad mannered, ranting, screeching undisciplined Willis. It was terrible. Why oh why does she think that shouting and yelling without stopping for breath and not allowingEitherGrant or Simon a word in edgeways makes her an opponent to be feared. Screaming accusations about Grants management of our economy over the last6years just shows she is running scared an cannot let anybody speak in case Grant succinctly corrects all her wild ravings with the verifiable truth. She is out of her depth and her constant reciting Nacts catch phrases, slogans, sound bites etc just shows that she is floundering in deep water. That’s all the parrot knows.
I hope there is an antidote for her. Just about had a panic attack at the constant onslaught
But it does deflect from the fact that she is no finance expert.That she likes to keep hidden by sudden attacks of verbal diarrhoea. I thought Paula Bennett was bad news but this one just plain horrible and nasty.
WOW doesn't sound good for our potential new Deputy PM.