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Open mike 12/10/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 12th, 2021 - 196 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

196 comments on “Open mike 12/10/2021 ”

  1. RosieLee 1

    I'd have thought it's just common sense for all teachers and school staff to be vaccinated. It shouldn't be a big deal, given some of the homes some of the kids come from, and the overcrowded classrooms these days.

    • garibaldi 1.1

      I believe there are some good arguments against being vaccinated with the mRNA Pfizer jab ,but ONLY if one is young, very healthy, and is un-immunocompromised. And that would apply to very few people out there , some of who may well be young, fit, health "addict" teachers. If they are dead against this vaccination then I don't see why they should have to lose their job. Bear in mind a vaccinated person can pass covid on anyway. Just saying.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.1.1

        Sounds like you've done your own research, Garibaldi, and have identified groups that should avoid vaccination!

        Weird how all the credible experts (Bloomfield, Baker etc in NZ) think getting everyone vaccinated down to infants (once approved) is the way to go, to give the best protection to everyone. The vaccines are incredibly safe, especially compared to the disease. Just Saying.

        Perhaps the teaching profession could afford to lose a few teachers who don't believe in science or in protecting the wellbeing of kids and their families.

      • Patricia Bremner 1.1.2

        95% of teachers are in their unions Their Unions say vaccinate.

        • garibaldi 1.1.2.1

          Alot of water is yet to go under the bridge before we find out everything about these covid vaccines. I have some nagging doubts about them but was happy to get the jab to avoid going to an overloaded hospital. Yes, I have done it for social and selfish reasons. I don't think the science and politics behind any of the big Pharma companies are squeaky clean. Time will tell.

      • McFlock 1.1.3

        Just leaving a false equivalence out there, more like.

        Nobody has to lose their job. They just have to test the courage of their convictions.

        It seems that in the US the number of people who genuinely would rather not have that job than get vaccinated is astonishingly low compared to the touted outrage.

      • RosieLee 1.1.4

        So will vaccinated teachers who are working in cramped and overcrowded classrooms have the right to know the vaccination status of all their students and families – and exclude the unvaccinated?

    • Stephen D 1.2

      We went back to school in Level 2 last year.

      Desks were arranged like exam time. They had all been cleaned. There was plenty of hand sanitiser in every room. Teachers discussed the usual, coughing onto your elbow, thorough hand washing, social distancing.

      At morning tea, the girls all hugged each other, and the boys were on the back field rolling around like labrador puppies.

      There is only so much we can do.

      • In Vino 1.2.1

        Same experience. Well said. Kids are hopeless at Physical Distancing, probably because somebody was stupid enough to name it 'Social Distancing'. ..

    • Fran 1.3

      Isn't anyone here worried about the human rights implications of these mandates? Whatever you believe about the vaccines the walking over of the bill of rights is terrifying. What comes next?

      I think the focus is in the wrong place here. When this pandemic ends what rights will we as citizens be left with?

      • Cricklewood 1.3.1

        My partner is beside herself, tbh its getting a bit scary…

      • Cricklewood 1.3.2

        Its not just trampling rights, its pitting family member against family member, fear of losing employment etc, resentment that you dont really have a real choice anymore, resentment when a stranger thinks it ok to quiz you on your medical information, resentment that neighbors are encouraged to dob each other in over percieved violation… some people find these things extremely frightening.

          • gsays 1.3.2.1.1

            My 'tradie' son was quick to acknowledge the Prime Minister lied to us.

            He said it rather too cheerfully for my liking.

            • garibaldi 1.3.2.1.1.1

              Tradies eh? Kings of the "self made man" syndrome. Married to their manly Ford Rangers etc.

              • gsays

                You are spot on about the Ranger.

                I would like to think it is a phase he is going through. Surrounded by older, News talk Hoskjng disciples.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 1.3.2.1.2

            When PM Ardern said the government would not apply penalties, and that those choosing not to be vaccinated were placing themselves at risk, the Delta outbreak was but a gleam under Collins’ eyebrow.

            Jacinda Ardern confident enough Kiwis will get COVID-19 vaccine for herd immunity without being forced to [22 Sept. 2021]

            "No, and we haven't for any vaccination in New Zealand applied penalties in that way," Ardern told The AM Show, after being asked if there might be tax penalties or other sanctions for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine.

            "But I would say for anyone who doesn't take up an effective and tested and safe vaccine when it's available, that will come at a risk to them."

            Adapt or die.” If the current outbreak gets out of control then our government may change tack on "tax penalties or other sanctions" – it’s simply commonsense to adapt to changing circumstances. But I'd be surprised and disappointed if they reneged on the committment to no forced vaccinations in NZ.

            • Gypsy 1.3.2.1.2.1

              "But I'd be surprised and disappointed if they reneged on the committment to no forced vaccinations in NZ."

              They already have. "Teachers and healthcare workers who refuse a Covid-19 vaccine will soon be out of a job."

              • KJT

                People having to face consequences for their actions, actions that are wholly their own choice, is not force.

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Has any NZer had a Covid-19 vaccine forced on them? NZ border workers had a choice; I would be surprised and disappointed if it’s any different for teachers / healthcare workers – the choice is theirs. Makes you think, eh?

                Teachers back Covid-19 vaccine mandate: 'It's our role to model safe behaviour' [11 Oct. 2021]

                Teachers are breathing a sigh of relief at the news vaccines will be mandatory for staff across schools and early childhood centres.

                All education staff who have contact with children must have had their first jab by November 15 and be fully vaccinated by January 1.

                Sarah Alexander, chief adviser to the Office of Early Childhood Education, said the Delta variant had given the government no other choice.

                COVID Vaccine Mandate Takes Effect for NYC Teachers, Staff
                [4 Oct 2021]
                A COVID-19 vaccine requirement for teachers and other staff members has taken effect in New York City’s million-plus-student public school system.

                Teachers protest COVID-19 vaccine mandate in Brooklyn
                [4 Oct 2021]
                With 97 percent of teachers vaccinated, the un-vaxed will be placed on unpaid leave

                Teachers and especially healthcare workers are in demand globally, so NZ may face some staff shortages as these mandates loom – choices and consequences, as always.

                Canada's overworked healthcare sector braces for staff shortages as vaccine mandates loom [11 Oct 2021]

                Devon Greyson, assistant professor of public health at the University of British Columbia, said officials are steering into uncharted waters with mass vaccine mandates, and it's not clear how workers will respond.

                "A shortage of workers can mean people's health and well being. It's scary," Greyson said.

                However, Greyson added, "we're in an ethical situation where it's also scary not to ensure that all health workers are vaccinated. So it's a bit of a Catch-22."

                To tackle staff scarcity, at least one province is offering signing bonuses to nurses. Provinces including Quebec and British Columbia have made it mandatory for healthcare workers and nursing staff to be vaccinated to continue working in their respective fields.

                The Vaccine Mandate For Healthcare Workers Means Hospitals Are Losing Staff [27 Sept 2021]

                Mandating COVID-19 Vaccination for Health Care Workers

                Hundreds of hospital staffers fired or suspended for refusing COVID-19 vaccine mandate

                • Gypsy

                  "Has any NZer had a Covid-19 vaccine forced on them?"

                  If it's a choice between giving up their livelihood, then yes it's force.

                  And that's not all.

                  "No, and we haven't for any vaccination in New Zealand applied penalties in that way," Ardern told The AM Show, after being asked if there might be tax penalties or other sanctions for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine. "

                  Surely you're not arguing that losing your job is not a sanction?

                  ” NZ border workers had a choice;”
                  And if they made the ‘wrong’ choice, they lost their job. Despite the PM’s assurances.

                  • McFlock

                    Well, no. It's you making yourself unable to do your job safely. Your employer has responsibilities in that regard.

                    • Gypsy

                      So let employers manage that risk. Just like we have until now. Just like we do with virtually all other health and safety issues.

                    • McFlock

                      So if OSH prosecute employers who have unvaxxed staff, that's not a sanction?

                      cool

                    • Gypsy

                      "So if OSH prosecute employers who have unvaxxed staff, that's not a sanction?"

                      No it's not. Because they would only investigate if there was an 'incident' (such as an infection). And they would only prosecute if the employer had not taken all reasonable steps. Let the employers decide, and advertise their decision so the community can make informed choices.

                    • McFlock

                      Because they would only investigate if there was an 'incident' (such as an infection).

                      Well, OSH regards hazards / near misses as reportable instances as well, and does investigate them.

                      So, basically, if a work-place were required to have an up to date register of vax status, and someone wasn't up to snuff, then that person working onsite would be a safety violation and the employer could be charged – that's not a sanction on the staff member fired because they can't do their job safely.

                      But a school having a register of vax status and being required to only employ vaxed staff is somehow a sanction on the teacher who gets dismissed for not being vaxed.

                    • Gypsy

                      "So, basically, if a work-place were required to have an up to date register of vax status, and someone wasn't up to snuff, then that person working onsite would be a safety violation and the employer could be charged – that's not a sanction on the staff member fired because they can't do their job safely."

                      They wouldn’t necessarily be a safety violation or risk. It would be up to the employer to take all reasonable steps to ensure any risk was managed, minimised, mitigated, just as they have been doing. So by all means, keep a register, but don't sack workers who aren't vaccinated. Particularly in a profession with critical staff shortages.

                    • weka

                      consider this. If we were all more honest in this debate, more people might get vaccinated.

                      Your sophistry here makes sense for people that have your beliefs, but those aren't the people who are hesitant about the vaccine.

                      Being real about the degree of pressure doesn't hurt us, it makes things better. Yes, we are mandating (forcing people to choose between their job and being vaxxed, for the good of others), because this is one of our few ways to avoid a really big disaster for NZ.

                      Dancing around that by pretending there's no coercion will just set off hesitant people's bullshit detectors at a time when many are already concerned about being lied to and losing control of something that's very important to them.

                    • McFlock

                      Mate, we keep hazard registers to identify hazards and demonstrate that we have isolated, minimised, or eliminated them.

                      The preferred resolution is eliminate. No more hazard.

                      In the case of staff who present a chronic safety hazard that cannot be isolated or minimised reasonably, that means firing them (after giving them reasonable instruction and support to stop being a hazard, which they reject).

                      Just like you would a truck driver who turns out to be an alcoholic. They can't safely perform their role.

                      why would anyone keep a meaningless register? "Oh, this is the guy who spread all that disease. We have their name in a register, it's ok".

                    • Gypsy

                      "The preferred resolution is eliminate. No more hazard."

                      But that isn't always possible, which is why we manage those hazards.

                      "In the case of staff who present a chronic safety hazard that cannot be isolated or minimised reasonably, that means firing them (after giving them reasonable instruction and support to stop being a hazard, which they reject)."

                      But this can be minimised reasonably. We could introduce regular testing (saliva/rapid antigen). Unvaccinated teachers could wear masks. There are alternatives to losing scarce teaching reseource.

                    • McFlock

                      Dancing around that by pretending there's no coercion will just set off hesitant people's bullshit detectors at a time when many are already concerned about being lied to and losing control of something that's very important to them.

                      Oh, so that's what sets off their bullshit detectors, huh.

                      Not the idea that Ardern was responding to the claim of literal forced vaccinations – full Billy TK shit – and now that is being conflated with "you can't sit in a room with thirty kids if you're going to give them an infectious disease, find something else to do with your stupidity".

                    • weka

                      why would anyone keep a meaningless register? "Oh, this is the guy who spread all that disease. We have their name in a register, it's ok".

                      Are you suggesting that all unvaccinated people should be fired from teaching, health, border control etc jobs?

                      What about the people with medical exemptions?

                    • McFlock

                      But this can be minimised reasonably. We could introduce regular testing (saliva/rapid antigen). Unvaccinated teachers could wear masks. There are alternatives to losing scarce teaching reseource.

                      Testing catches it after the fact, and an employer could require full BL4 outfites and still be a fool to trust an antivaxxer to use them diligently. Only sure way is to get rid of them.

                    • McFlock

                      Are you suggesting that all unvaccinated people should be fired from teaching, health, border control etc jobs?

                      What about the people with medical exemptions?

                      100 people, isn't it? If everyone else gets vaccinated, we might be able to keep them on.

                    • weka

                      Oh, so that's what sets off their bullshit detectors, huh.

                      Not the idea that Ardern was responding to the claim of literal forced vaccinations – full Billy TK shit – and now that is being conflated with "you can't sit in a room with thirty kids if you're going to give them an infectious disease, find something else to do with your stupidity".

                      lol, how many vaccine hesitant people do you actually know? They're not some amorphous BTK loving mass. Some of them are easily as intelligent as you. And they don't like being lied to.

                      Do you believe that Ardern would never sanction forced vaccinations? Pretty sure I've seen you argue for them pre-covid, as in maybe they're not such a bad idea. Pretty sure that Andre is in favour. You think vax hesitant people trust the left or Ardern on this? You think people who don't trust the government and feel politically homeless and disenfranchised are going to do what you want?

                      It doesn't matter how righteous you are in your own mind (and you may well be completely right). People are human, and there are things that work and things that don't. I'm suggesting trying honesty.

                      And yes, I saw the video on twitter, and I don't think Ardern was only talking about strap em down and force 'em, she was also at times talking about mandating vaccines via coercion.

                    • weka

                      in order to find some common ground here, I'll withdraw the idea that Ardern lied. She was pragmatic at the time, and genuine, but it's also true that she would have know that a time might come when coercion was necessary.

                      So let's call it a white lie, or just good PR and political nous. The problem is that some people feel lied to, and while you might thing their feelings are irrelevant, we know that many humans will respond better when they get to feel good or met half way or that people are considering their wellbeing. None of that us unreacheable to us now.

                    • McFlock

                      In Gypsy's clip, the question was about tax penalties, and Ardern was saying we don't need to do that because historically we get up to around 90%. That was pre-delta.

                      We might one day get to the level with a disease where literally everyone needs the jab to stop millions dying. In that case, fuck personal choices. We are not going to replay the black death just because some jerk wants to dick about and google their own research. In the 14th century Europe literally didn't know what hit it, today we can diagnose it, sequence it, kill it, and stick its photo on our wall.

                    • McFlock

                      The problem is that some people feel lied to, and while you might thing their feelings are irrelevant, we know that many humans will respond better when they get to feel good or met half way or that people are considering their wellbeing. None of that us unreacheable to us now.

                      The response is binary. They either get vaccinated, or they don't.

                    • weka

                      haven't seen Gypsy's clip, I'll see if can find the twitter one.

                      The issue I'm arguing isn't about personal choice, it's about not throwing the human rights baby out with the bathwater, or using authoritarian approaches that make the situation worse.

                      The response is binary. They either get vaccinated, or they don't.

                      Ok, I'll take that as you being ok with either authoritarianism, or risking authoritarianism. By which I don't mean personal choice (that's something in your head), I mean that if society wants to keep treating people like shit (the feelings bit, not the vax/unvaxxed bit), then it can take it's chances, but we know how this went in the US and it's unlikely they will get out of that mess in the forseeable future.

                    • Gypsy

                      ''In Gypsy's clip, the question was about tax penalties, and Ardern was saying we don't need to do that because historically we get up to around 90%."

                      You haven't read the article. The PM's comments were in response to conspiracy theorists claims that people will be forced to get the vaccination. The article goes on to say this:

                      On Tuesday Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern went a step further, saying not only will there be no forced vaccinations, but those who choose to opt-out won't face any penalties at all.

                      "No, and we haven't for any vaccination in New Zealand applied penalties in that way," Ardern told The AM Show, after being asked if there might be tax penalties or other sanctions for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine.

                      She specifically ruled out mandated vaccination, and also ruled out any penalty for those who refused.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      She specifically ruled out mandated vaccination…

                      No, PM Ardern ruled out forced vaccinations.

                      But I would say for anyone who doesn’t take up an effective and tested and safe vaccine when it’s available, that will come at a risk to them.” – PM Ardern (22 Sept 2021)

                      I certainly don't believe they should lose their livelihoods.

                      Nor I, and happily there's no need. During a global pandemic it may become acceptable to review (on an on-going basis) the personal and societal merits of safe, effective vaccines.

                      If, after review, 'jab avoidance' still feels like the right choice, then there are many countries crying out for NZ teachers and healthcare workers. Tragically, in some of those countries the current average daily Covid death toll remains north of 100, so please at least consider getting the appropriate jabs before relocating.

                      We don't know how lucky we are to live in this country.

                      Unite against COVID-19
                      https://covid19.govt.nz

                    • McFlock

                      You haven't read the article.

                      You didn't watch the interview embedded in that article.

                      Also:

                      Coronavirus: Jacinda Ardern confident enough Kiwis will get COVID-19 vaccine for herd immunity without being forced to

                      Fairly accurate headline for a change. Not a bad prediction given the ground a year ago.

                    • McFlock

                      Ok, I'll take that as you being ok with either authoritarianism, or risking authoritarianism. By which I don't mean personal choice (that's something in your head), I mean that if society wants to keep treating people like shit (the feelings bit, not the vax/unvaxxed bit), then it can take it's chances, but we know how this went in the US and it's unlikely they will get out of that mess in the forseeable future.

                      It was a simple statement of fact. Individuals either get the damned jab, or don't.

                      We get up to a level where ICUs aren't overloaded and deaths are rare, or we get fucked and thousands die.

                      If you want to hold their hand and take them down to big pharma to buy the prophylactic of their choice, and try and explain to them why the horse tablets are an imbecilic option, go ahead.

                      We don't have time, and we don't have the resources.

                      Like the PM was, I'm still reasonably confident that we won't need authoritarian measures to get to a level of community protection. But making sure that key network nodes who have many "edges" (close contacts, like teachers with students, colleagues and parents) have protection isn't just about population immunity, it's about stopping that particular person almost single-handedly causing a near-uncontrollable outbreak.

                      Population immunity is a stochastic concept: we don't know which person will protect which other person. But teachers getting vaccinated? We know exactly who that is to protect.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram

                    It's an easy choice, imho. I wish all teachers and healthcare workers who chose to make the tough decision to remain vaccine-free well – we can't, alas, wish those who have tragically died from Covid well.

                    Maybe the excellent Covid health outcomes achieved so far by our government and the team have caused some to lose sight of the millions of lives already lost to the pandemic. It appears to be the view of our government that it can’t effectively enforce the public health measures needed to eliminate or possibly even control this Delta outbreak, so they are enacting other logical and enforcible measures to keep everyone as safe as possible. They can’t please everyone.

                    If I needed to see a healthcare professional right now and had a choice (all other things being equal) between an unvaccinated and a vaccinated worker, I know which one I'd choose. Keep choice alive!

                    Unite against COVID-19
                    https://covid19.govt.nz

                    • Gypsy

                      I made what I consider an informed choice and am fully vaccinated. I respect those who made an informed choice and chose not to. I certainly don't believe they should lose their livelihoods.

            • weka 1.3.2.1.2.2

              When PM Ardern said the government would not apply penalties, and that those choosing not to be vaccinated were placing themselves at risk, the Delta outbreak was but a gleam under Collins’ eyebrow.

              Yeah, but I could see back then that if the virus got worse, or we got a more deadly pandemic, that mandating would happen. Ardern could have been honest. It's not like they didn't know about the possibility. She chose the line she chose, because she's a good public communicator and it made sense at the time, but it wasn't her only option.

              • Gypsy

                "Dancing around that by pretending there's no coercion will just set off hesitant people's bullshit detectors at a time when many are already concerned about being lied to and losing control of something that's very important to them."

                Exactly. The PM has clearly either lied to or mislead teachers and front line customs workers. Anti-vaxxers are lying to people. But this mandating everything in sight is raising hackles and it is just so totally counter-productive.

                • weka

                  Just said to McFlock that I'd stop calling it lying, in the interests of common ground. Ardern was being politically pragmatic. The problem is people feel like she lied. This is why I think honesty rather than ostracisation and sophistry would be a better move right now. We really need to be calling people in.

                  one of the options with mandating is to mandate and help people find other jobs if they don't want to vax. Isn't that what Labour is all about?

                  • Gypsy

                    "one of the options with mandating is to mandate and help people find other jobs if they don't want to vax."

                    Honestly, I'm not comfortable with that either. The ECE sector is desperately short of teachers. And if Covid is in the community, children are just as likely to catch it on play dates etc as from a teacher, particularly if sound precautions are taken.

                    • weka

                      if a child spends one hour with an infected play mate, and one hour with an infected teacher, their risk is increased than if they spent one hour with only one of them. Even if we don’t think the child is at risk, the health system still is and in turn other people.

                      As for shortages, I believe that covid is the starting point of rolling crises over the next hundred years. Climate and ecology crisis are lapping around our feet. We have to learn to adapt, and the idea that societal institutions and services will remain unchanged is dangerous. Not that I expect Labour to be planning around this (yet), but I do think people need to be thinking about changes, including ones induced by shortages, and figure out how to make things better within the limitations.

                  • McFlock

                    Apparently there's a lot of hospo work going at the moment.

                    • Gypsy

                      My son's a chef. He's back at work and has been told he can work all the hours he wants, there is such a shortage of chefs.

                  • Gypsy

                    "if a child spends one hour with an infected play mate, and one hour with an infected teacher, their risk is increased than if they spent one hour with only one of them. Even if we don’t think the child is at risk, the health system still is and in turn other people."

                    I get all of that, but those 'if's' don't take into account other measures.

                    The ECE centre where I spend most of my time had a positive case recently. A child. I was a close contact, as were at least 30 other children and their parents (we had had a farewell event for one of the staff). Even though that was very early in the Delta outbreak, the centre was already exercising good practices, and despite none of the teachers being vaccinated at that stage no-one else caught covid from that child. The greatest risk to children is likely to come from parents and other contacts.

                    • weka

                      I don't really get this. Surely the point is to eleminate as many risks, not just the greatest. If risks are 50%, 10%, 5%, 15%, 30%, don't we want to do the smaller risks as well as the biggest?

                  • Gypsy

                    Just BTW – I have just been sent a clip that is circulating on social media. The clip is of both the PM, Chris Hipkins and Ashley Bloomfield stating categorically that vaccinations will not be made compulsory. The PM is specifically asked about the 'no-jab no-job' policy in Australia, and she specifically replies that her government are not looking at that, that she she believes in vaccination, but "not mandatory". There is also a picture of a Covid-19 promotional ad that reads "you cannot be forced to get vaccinated'. It really isn't a good look.

                    • weka

                      This one?

                      Yep, it is a bad look, this one will come back to bite them. From memory, the wording was different at different times. But I understood at the time the situation could change. Didn't think it would be this soon mind.

                  • Gypsy

                    "Yep, it is a bad look, this one will come back to bite them. "

                    That's the one.

                    And while they’re implementing a mandate they said they wouldn’t, there’s this:

                    Epidemiologist Michael Baker says there’s so many holes in the system “you could drive a truck through it”.
                    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/covid-19-government-rules-don-t-require-negative-test-result-to-cross-borders.html

              • Gypsy

                "Surely the point is to eleminate as many risks, not just the greatest."
                Of course, but there are balances. For example a business doesn't fire people because there is a chance of an accident. They manage, minimise and mitigate. In the tame way The jab doesn't eliminate all risk of catching covid; it is a mitigation, a way of minimising (not eliminating) risk.

        • Peter 1 1.3.2.2

          Sounds just like the 2nd world war. I wonder if they moaned as much then.

          • McFlock 1.3.2.2.1

            Apparently, quite a few did, lol.

            Like an ironmonger at the start of the war who responded to a cop instructing him to put out his lights:

            'I have got some work to do, so clear off.‘

            Interesting thesis, that – but a big read, because thesis lol

      • KJT 1.3.3

        Gerald Otto puts it better then I can.

        When some Teachers and health workers think their “right” to avoid a harmless jab, overrides the rights of their students, patients or fellow staff to remain well. Should they be in the job?

        https://www.facebook.com/gerard.otto

        “Never have I seen
        Never have I seen so many teachers leading by example and protecting the children in their classes from long covid and possibly even death whilst a small minority are so selfish about their freedom to infect the kids. They should never have been teachers in the first place.
        Never had I seen so many health workers protect patients, themselves and their colleagues from infection while working like heroes on the front lines while illiterate morons protest their freedom and make the life of health workers more dangerous and stressful”.

        • Cricklewood 1.3.3.1

          If an RSV shot is approved should that be mandatory as well? (killed a bunch of kids this year overan starship)Flu? Measles, Chickpox? MMR?

          We are going to have to decide these things, and be ready to roll on mandated booster shots as well.

        • Grafton Gully 1.3.3.2

          Research on belief in conspiracy theories might help understand why "some Teachers and health workers think their “right” to avoid a harmless jab, overrides the rights of their students, patients or fellow staff to remain well."

          Recent work from Australia (my bold) –

          "Results of the current study indicate that individuals who have odd beliefs/magical thinking, and who are strategic, manipulative, dominant, and callous are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. Given the possibility for these beliefs to shape real world behaviour, and the possibility for this behaviour to have damaging social and civic consequences, it is imperative research continues to establish predictors of these beliefs so reliable methods to challenge and negate these erroneous beliefs can be established."

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6890261/

        • weka 1.3.3.3

          When some Teachers and health workers think their “right” to avoid a harmless jab, overrides the rights of their students, patients or fellow staff to remain well. Should they be in the job?

          There's a real problem in this line. You believe it is harmless, other people don't. Your argument is predicated on people accepting your beliefs and abandoning their own. How do you think that's going to work out, especially under financial and career duress?

          Instead, we could be saying that the risk from the vaccine is low and the risk is worth taking because covid the illness in individuals and society has much worse outcomes and is much more likely to happen.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.3.3.3.1

            As a past teacher, after getting the facts, most want their pupils safe from the virus.

            The union membership it is voluntary and last I looked 95%.

            The members want vaccination.

            Those who don't it is their personal choice and parents may not want that risk.

          • KJT 1.3.3.3.2

            I don't "believe it is harmless". I know for a fact, vaccines are almost harmless, supported by a huge amount of evidence.

            Opinions/beliefs and facts, are two different things.

            That vaccination is almost 100% safe, is a fact. Determined by the results of trials and research involving millions of people.

            Nothing is 100% safe, of course.

            Covid, of course, is several orders of magnitude more harmful.

            “instead, we could be saying that the risk from the vaccine is low and the risk is worth taking because covid the illness in individuals and society has much worse outcomes and is much more likely to happen”

            What do you think I’ve been saying?

            • weka 1.3.3.3.2.1

              "Nothing is 100% safe, of course."

              That's right. But you have been saying "harmless".

              "What do you think I’ve been saying?"

              I think you've been saying that the vaccine is harmless, and no-one ever experiences adverse effects.

              • KJT

                In New Zealand after 5 million jabs

                Adverse reactions more severe than sniffles for a few days. Less than ten.

                That is about as "harmless" as anything gets.

                So. Saying the Phizer vaccine is "harmless" is entirely justified.

            • chris T 1.3.3.3.2.2

              "Covid, of course, is several orders of magnitude more harmful."

              To the vulnerable

              • McFlock

                Apparently Brazil has passed the 600k "vulnerable" mark, and that's just their dead.

                Per capita, that would be about 14,000 NZ dead.

                But they're vulnerable, so that would be fine. 🙄

                • chris T

                  That is a fair point. But lets face it Brazil handled it shittely.

                  I think the govt did it right now at the time. But have to say personally I thought at the time it would have been easier and cheaper to the whole country if we went for shielding the vulnerable rather than restricting them and everyone else (Which is the vast majority(.

                  All in all reckon at the beginning they did really well. But geezes there is no reason for the Sth Island to be at level 2 now with a properly controlled and the cook strait.

                  And the vagueness of stuff is silly.

                  Give me Arden 2020. Because the 2021 one is a bit scattery

                  • McFlock

                    Well, down here another person was in the paper today claiming they didn't break the rules by travelling to SI from Auckland. And a chap got tested after his Northland trip.

                    There are more than a million people in L3, and another couple mill in L2 in the North Island. Even essential travel is likely to spread some cases down here while daily rates are this high.

                    I'm involved with a local theatre in Dunedin, and operationally we're fucked badly even under L2. Sustained negative cashflow is a worrying thing, for sure.

                    But waiting until we have detected cases before limiting the ability of those cases to spread is like waiting until you have covid before getting the jab, or waiting until you're about to be in an accident before putting your seatbelt on. There's a good chance you'll be too late to get the effect.

        • mauī 1.3.3.4

          The sooner we stop this crazy "vaccinate to protect others" nonsense, rather than "vaccinate for your own health" the better imo.

          Yes, vaccinating mostly healthy adults in order to protect the part of the population with the best immunity and who will be least affected, is as stupid as it sounds.

        • miravox 1.3.3.5

          "When some Teachers and health workers think their “right” to avoid a harmless jab, overrides the rights of their students, patients or fellow staff to remain well. Should they be in the job?"

          Yes, this is where I think the debate should be. I'd like to hear the views of the people who are avoiding vaccinations on this point. We hear their views on anything but this, and I doubt we'll get anywhere until we do know what they think about the rights of the kid with asthma, or the one with the mum who is sick, or the one whose dad is worn out from his work in the hospital looking after covid patients.

      • mac1 1.3.4

        Fran, think back over our history and look at the special powers that governments have had in the past, especially in war time, and never got used then or since. There have always been emergency powers. There have always been courts. There have always been elections. WE have had epidemics, wars, depressions, emergencies in the past.

        You ask the question- what rights will we as citizens be left with?

        One only should suffice- universal suffrage.

        We don't like what has happened, we vote them out. The laws get changed, the regulations revoked,

        There is one interesting question for me, though. What changes, what attitudinal shift, what social mores will alter after the pandemic?

        How will it affect our group thinking, since we have all faced a common enemy and seen our interdependence on each other, rich or poor, whatever suburb we live in (David Seymour take note).

        We may see that inequity threarens us all and come to see that a fairer society is a safer society as well.

        • gsays 1.3.4.1

          Surely yr enthusiasm for just needing a vote is a little naive or misguided.

          Lobbyists acting for interests with deep pockets shoots that 'one person one vote' to smithereens.

          I didn't vote for compulsory medication last election.

          As to the future relationships I would love to buy your narrative but I don't see it. My son's 19 yr old girlfriend works in retail. The middle class are not shy of demanding to know her vaccination status half a dozen times a day.

          • Shanreagh 1.3.4.1.1

            Hopefully she is wearing a mask and that her employer has plans in place to encourage the uptake of the vaccination. I think, as a bare minimum, public facing people in shops etc should be vaccinated but if not at least wear masks.

            I believe that there is a selling point of having a completely vaxxed staff, if allowed under HR legislation. Retail needs us and many will go to those places that are mask wearing and/or vaxxed.

            I didn't vote for compulsory medication last election.

            Neither did I. I also did not know that we were going to have the different /difficult to deal with Delta variant.

            I also don't buy the middle class stuff. We should not allow the uptake of the vaccination and the positivity of wearing a mask to be side tracked by this.

            I would go a little further than universal suffrage. Universal suffrage with MMP as a voting system as the minimum, although recognising that our first govt could bring in Human Rights legislation after an election.

          • Sacha 1.3.4.1.2

            I didn't vote for compulsory medication last election.

            Who voted for Covid?

            • gsays 1.3.4.1.2.1

              Covid was unavoidable and maybe inevitable.

              Mandatory medication has been chosen as if there is no other option.

          • mac1 1.3.4.1.3

            gsays, one question. If as you say, "Lobbyists acting for interests with deep pockets shoots that 'one person one vote' to smithereens," why did you vote?

            Sounds like an exercise in futility to this 'naive and misguided' person……..

            • gsays 1.3.4.1.3.1

              Surely, at the least, voting gives licence to criticize.

              That doesn't mean I can't acknowledge the rorts and short-comings eg 3 main parties allegedly in breach of election funding.

              • mac1

                I go a little further. I vote, I criticize, I joined a party 50 years ago to create policy, I even stood for parliament twice. Now that might be seen as 'naive and misguided'. As Voltaire once pronounced, on another activity it must be added, "Once is philosophy, but twice is perversion."

                For all those people who complain that the government has got no real power, and for all those people who say that the government has got too much power- well, at least one side has got it wrong.

                If there is no real power in government, then why does the Right contest so hard. Surely they'd just leave it all to their "deep pockets"?

                • gsays

                  Clearly there is power in government, witness mandated vaccines.

                  There also has to be power in lobbyists and vested interests. Fishing boats and their disgraceful practices. There has been opposition to cameras on boats for years and it hasn't come from the electorate.

                  Sincerely, well done on standing for parliament, more courage of yr convictions than I. I stood unsuccessfully for BOT of our local school. Too much of a fragile ego to do that again.

                  Nandor Tanzcos (I think) observed he was more influential out of parliament than in it.

                  • mac1

                    Thanks, gsays. My friends said I was better off out of it. But the experience of standing was mostly satisfying- even the nutters were entertaining. But even then, before the decade of dirty politics, there were serious lies of a personal nature. One of the nicer ones was that I had two drug convictions…… (Two sounds far more convincing than one!)

                    • Patricia Bremner

                      mac 1 there were terrible lies put out by a group. Some ended up in court. Sadly those who do this at arms length but overlooked revealing photos of them with these people became known. Cheers, we definitely need those who stand for public service regardless of the pitfalls.

        • Foreign Waka 1.3.4.2

          mac 1, 1.3.4
          Orwell, enough said.

          • mac1 1.3.4.2.1

            37 years ago, FW, and waiting……..

            For prophecies of doom I much prefer Yeats and The Second Coming. Shorter, more poetic and written during the time of the Spanish Flu Epidemic.

      • Anne 1.3.5

        I think the focus is in the wrong place here. When this pandemic ends what rights will we as citizens be left with?

        FFS. What's with all this crazy hysterical nonsense?

        When the pandemic ends all our normal rights will be resumed. If you think otherwise, you're living in Cloud Cuckoo Land. As it stands the lives of people are at serious risk – including your life Fran – and that must take precedence over all else.

        If you and others can't see that then I suggest you go see a head-shrink.

        • Foreign Waka 1.3.5.1

          LOL, yes Europe has seen how easy that is.

        • weka 1.3.5.2

          what makes you think the pandemic will end?

          NZ was this close to removing privacy rights from a whole class of people before the last election. It boggles my mind that lefties haven't seen the erosion of rights in the last 40 years. They're being chipped away at. The issue here isn't whether the laws now are needed (they are), it's the cultural shifts happening that will mean more laws like this will be passed more easily as we go along. We've seen this since 9/11 in particular.

          A specific example here: the covid app data won't be used for non-covid things. This is policy, the protection isn't written into law. You might trust Labour on this, I sure as hell don't trust NACT (being part of the class they were trying to remove rights from). Why won't Labour put the protection in law?

          • Anne 1.3.5.2.1

            The pandemic will be over – one day. It might not be in my life-time but it will happen. See Spanish Flu 1918.

            • weka 1.3.5.2.1.1

              oh that's alright then 😉

              You said,

              When the pandemic ends all our normal rights will be resumed.

              Are you ok removing rights for now and reinstating for people who are around after you die? It doesn't really work like that.

              • McFlock

                It often does, though. EG Britain during WW2 vs 1955, and the restrictions around the aforementioned Spanish Flu.

                The funny thing is the debates about masks and lockdowns are almost identical between the latter and now, and they didn't have vaccines or testing or ventilators.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.3.5.2.2

            Look Facebook took more rights away than most. Phones… all the gadgets.

            Face it, if we put our tea our holiday and more online…..????

            • weka 1.3.5.2.2.1

              FB took away privacy rights, so the left can give away even more, this time to the state? Are you really arguing that? Do you know what National were doing before the 2017 election?

      • gsays 1.3.6

        Chilling was my response.

        I have a little more empathy for the fringe element who predicted this compulsion ages ago.

        One upside is it reveals the closeted authoritarians and confirms the ones who were 'out'.

        • Shanreagh 1.3.6.1

          One upside is it reveals the closeted authoritarians and confirms the ones who were 'out'.

          Name calling is not a desirable trait. no

          • gsays 1.3.6.1.1

            C'mon ref, where have you been the last year?. There has been lots of name calling and slurs that have gone uncommented upon. Not against your team perhaps?

            I am really surprised how much this has shaken me, so may have to be forgiven the occasional outburst.

    • bwaghorn 1.4

      I'd say if a teacher is anti vax they arnt intelligent enough to teach

      • Anne 1.4.1

        In a nutshell as usual bw.

      • Pete 1.4.2

        Imagine though, instead of being the leader in front of a class of kids they can spend their time at home.

        They can then be an oracle to the whole world on online forums. Ironically, that would automatically put them in the position of being an expert at education and schooling. smiley

    • Bruce 1.5

      My 2 cents : I'm getting tired of all the anti vax rubbish and being locked down too. I have been and am under treatment of a world leading and renowned Professer of Medicine. Ive trialed experimental drugs for him and now enjoy the cure; along with millions of others, his work bought about. Hes not tied to big Pharma, in the early days he sent me along to a herbalist to help with the effects of my disease. He recommends the vaccine and I'll take his advice before any body elses reckons. Get vaccinated.

      As an aside for anyone putting it off because of fear of needles just think of how many more jabs you'll be getting if you get the virus.

      • Sacha 1.5.1

        Is that Ed Gane?

        • Bruce 1.5.1.1

          you betcha. Be over 20 years of life hes given me next month.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.5.1.1.1

            This whole situation is about trust. Well done Bruce, many happy returns of the years.
            We have a caring Government and this latest meme of 'loss of rights" is silly.
            In this situation planning is ongoing and must to try to overcome huge difficulties. In these circumstances vaccine is required. If the member chooses against it ok. No-one will force them.

      • weka 1.5.2

        I have a background in patient rights and alternative health communities. There are many people who have been harmed by mainstream medicine. The issue here isn't that msm is safe (there are always risks with medications and vaccines), it's how to help people make good risk assessments. Telling people to ignore their own experience and knowledge base and follow yours is just not going to work.

        • Bruce 1.5.2.1

          Hi Weka, I apologise if my plea to get vaccinated came across as a bit bossy. I must admit I was annoyed when i posted having just read a plea to do the opposite based on mere reckons. I had hoped by sharing my experience from a reputable source may help others make good risk assessments.

          Many many many more people have been helped by mainstream medicine. As Elvis Costello says 'Accidents will Happen.' As long as the aim is true

          I would be interested in the results of anyone who has tried muscle testing (reflexology) the vaccine. And I feel healing energy, prana, orgone or similar is of little use when the tiger ( virus ) is chewing of your arm.

          So for me the vaccine provides a solution but for it to work everyone must be on board and I feel sharing my experience can help with that.

          • weka 1.5.2.1.1

            It does seem that people who have a lot of faith in msm are helped by that belief. I suspect there is some strong placebo in addition to the RCT style processes around drugs and other treatments. This isn't me dissing msm, I think that's all a good thing. I'm glad for you that it's worked really well for you, I know msm kept my father alive for many more years than he would have otherwise.

            Thing is though, the people who are harmed, are a crossover with those who are vax hesitant. They know the short comings of msms, and telling them the vaccine is harmless or that we should just trust the scientists and doctors doesn't work for similar reasons as to why muscle testing or chi kung wouldn't work for you. You have to meet people where they are. Many people at the moment seem to believe that forcing their beliefs on others will yield good results, but when has that every worked out well?

            I agree that we need as many people on board with the vaccine as possible if we want to prevent disaster in NZ. The argument is about how we do that, get as many people on board as possible. Ostracisation, meanness, ridicule, force, sophistry and fudging the truth are not the best approaches if we want a high vax rate.

  2. Jester 2

    Good that they have now located the second woman that travelled up North. And it sounds like she has Covid symptoms. It's interesting that neither have been named like the Wanaka couple, as she may have been located sooner if public knew who it was.

    I hope they are charged in some way as they have caused so much damage to Northland.

    Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Race between 'vaccine and virus' as Auckland stays in level 3 – NZ Herald

    • Gezza 2.1

      I’m guessing they will be charged with something, but that name suppression will be granted, possibly permanently, by da judge, in view of the vitriol (and possibly other things) both individuals would likely have hurled at them if their identities were revealed.

    • Treetop 2.2

      What is now important is the locations of interest, testing, contact tracing and following the level 3 restrictions.

      I suppose the usual political stirring will take place.

      I would like to know how the opposition would handle such a situation when a person chooses to remain silent?

    • Chris T 2.3

      " It's interesting that neither have been named like the Wanaka couple"

      TBF the Wanaka couple weren't named (well apart from on Facebook gossip). They came out and named themselves

      • KJT 2.3.1

        They didn't name themselves.

        They were caught.

        Originally got name suppression, which they had to withdraw under pressure from others that were being mis identified as them.

        • Chris T 2.3.1.1

          They didn't have to withdraw.

          And the hype around them was ridiculous and totally out of proportion, given no one seems to give a toss about some of the other antics people are getting up to.

          • KJT 2.3.1.1.1

            Priviledged people who should have known better.

            Deserved all they got.

            I agree though, that antics like Collins running around Queenstown unmasked, when she was from Auckland, for no good reason, should have caused more attention.

  3. Gezza 3

    Raining quite heavily; looks like it’ll be a pluvial day. Stream’s up a foot or two and flooding dirty brown. No eel feeding today.

    I very rarely needed to mow my lawns when the pooks visited my back yard several times a day. They liked trimming & eating the grass.

    Altho the younger ones, once they learned how to fly up onto the fence & down again onto my lawn, invariably had to be shrieked at quite a few times "No! No pulling out grass! Just trimming". It often took up to a fortnight of daily doing my block at newbies to get them to learn that "shearing" the grass was ok, but pulling out clumps of it was definitely NOT!

    • Macro 3.1

      Do you have any fruit trees on your lawn? And if you have, do you get any of it? I got very over pukekos when living next to them. We had a flock of around 100 living in the paddocks around our house. We get more fruit from the 5 fruit trees we have now where we live than from the 30 trees we had on the farm.

      • Gezza 3.1.1

        Only a lemon tree, Macro. They don’t like lemons.

        I’m fortunate that that apart from their visits to my back yard they basically live in the stream & on the stream banks, & spend most of their day foraging up & down the stream. There’s plenty of kai, & lotsa variety, for them there.

        All they were getting at my place was “treats” of wheat grains, & Molenberg bread chunks (so I could enjoy watching them eat bread holding it in their “hands” – i.e. with their long, very dextrous talons).

    • alwyn 3.2

      "looks like it’ll be a pluvial day."

      Oh dear. You have been reading one of Geoffrey Palmer's books haven't you? He was, of course, the man who described his homeland as "New Zealand is an irreducably pluvial country.".

      Now you are using that word, just to show how literate you are I suspect.

      • Shanreagh 3.2.1

        I suspect Gezza has come across that word just as I did. As children we learned the word pluvial very early on as events that my Dad organised, A & P shows and Racing days had to have pluvial insurance. We always lost the low table in our bedroom at the time of the A & P show as judges used it to stand the dogs on for judging.

        And of course Geoffrey Palmer's use is a delight.

        Those who seem to delight in putting others down or damning with faint praise, as far as language is concerned always remind me of the quote from Issac Asimov

        “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

        • alwyn 3.2.1.1

          I wasn't meaning to disparage Gezza. However, reading the last sentence I wrote I can see how it can come across that way. To Gezza – I apologise.

          I have a rather similar memory about A & P shows. I had an Uncle who used to come and judge livestock at the local show. He would come and stay with my family and I would lose my bed for a couple of nights. Not quite the same as having your table take pride of place during the judging of course.

          That was a long time ago of course. Now the farmers don't go any more and the Show is really just for the townies.

          • Gezza 3.2.1.1.1

            No worries. Can't remember now if it was my Latin or French teacher who taught us the word. laugh

          • garibaldi 3.2.1.1.2

            How soporific alwyn. Hint.. it's from Peter Rabbit.

          • Shanreagh 3.2.1.1.3

            smileyYes indeed with the visitors. We always had to give our visitors our bed/s or topped and tailed.

            A couple of years ago I dropped my cousin aged 72 at the time, at her daughters place to stay overnight. I was amazed when I picked her up the next day, to find that her daughter had put her mother on a mattress on the floor so she did not have to move any of the three children 9,8 5 from their beds. I was gob-smacked.

            A & P shows still do have an attraction for rural folk in the smaller places. I agree that those within striking distance of a city or larger town the 'townies' do go.

      • swordfish 3.2.2

        .

        Didn't the Propeller-Head say something similar as PM when 'comforting' flood victims c1990 … something like: "But what none of you seem to understand is that New Zealand is, by its very nature, a highly pluvial Country" … in the process highlighting just how conspicuously he lacked the common touch ?

        [Note: maybe it was as Deputy PM during Cyclone Bola 1988 ?]

        Excitedly playing his trumpet as he pranced around the outer ring of the top floor of the Beehive in a very early Ep of Holmes, euphorically anticipating the arrival of his hero, clarinettist Acker Bilk, didn’t help his populist image any either … I remember just shaking my head as I watched … worth 50k votes to Bolger-Richardson.

        • Gezza 3.2.2.1

          Who’s the “propeller head”? Sir Geoffrey Palmer?

          One of the advantages of my 34 years in the Public Service was that I was able to move around a lot, filling a number of roles, nearly all of which involved a great deal of writing, but in various different styles, from very formal English, to quasi-legal writing, to semi-technical IT user requirements, to policy manuals, to very plain, easily understandable English in forms & leaflets where the onus was on simplicity & accuracy.

          Even today I find it relatively easy to adapt my writing & speaking styles to suit a particular audience or individual, if I can be bothered to put a bit of effort in. But I can also be damned lazy about it when I’m not being paid.

  4. Byd0nz 4

    Regarding MIQ and the selfish few who wish to jump the queue, I should think everyone would have a story to say why they should get back.

    I don't think the lottery model is good however, perhaps it should be more like going for a blood test, get a number and wait till you become head of the queue

  5. Chris T 5

    Pretty good interview by Kim Hill with the Big yin from this morning.

    Parkinson's sucks man

    RNZ Audio Player

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018815700/sir-billy-connolly-a-windswept-and-interesting-life

    [full link added - weka]

  6. weka 6

    I'll probably be rolling my eyes at the vegan propaganda side of this, but otherwise it looks exciting, feature length doco on the NZ dairy industry, with some heavy hitting names backing it. Not sure when it's being released.

  7. Gezza 7

    No worries. Can't remember now if it was my Latin or French teacher who taught us the word. laugh

    • Brigid 7.1

      Latin I expect.

      History and Etymology for pluvial

      Adjective

      Latin pluvialis, from pluvia rain, from feminine of pluvius rainy, from pluere to rain

      Interesting stuff etymology.

      • Robert Guyton 7.1.1

        il fait pleut – it's raining (French)

        plein na – it's raining (Khmer – from memory).

      • Gezza 7.1.2

        I think you’re right.

        My Latin teacher was nicknamed Cabbage. He was an arrogant, sarcastic bastard & we loathed each other. I dropped Latin for 6th Form History as soon as I could.

        He also taught us the English word perambulate … to walk or travel through or round a place or area, especially for pleasure and in a leisurely way.

        From the Latin per … all over, & ambulare … to walk.

        • McFlock 7.1.2.1

          That puts to my mind a story a cop told me once, about a witness in a trial. The witness had limited English skill, not so much that a translator was needed but still learning the second language. Anyway, the prosecution asks the witness to describe the incident, and the witness talks about how he was "proceeding down this street" and "proceeded to see" yadda yadda yadda.

          The use of the word "proceeding" in a repeated manner raised a few eyebrows, so the defense almost immediately begins cross examination with the word, asking him about whether the witness normally uses it. Even the cop was beginning to second guess whether someone had coached the witness.

          "My English language class is on Monday nights, and I use the new words as much as possible. We learnt 'proceeding' this week". lol

        • Brigid 7.1.2.2

          From which we get 'pram' I guess. Wot one pushes a baby in.

          Heh.

          One doesn't push the baby. The pram gets pushed. The baby's in the pram.

          I'll shuddup now

    • joe90 7.2

      IIRC, fourth form geography.

  8. gsays 8

    I would love to hear Bill's take on the mandated vaccines.

    He often articulated unease I had about issues, only more articulate and with good imagination.

    I know he popped up recently and I trust he is keeping good health.

  9. Stephen D 9

    I wait with baited breath a comment from whoever the opposition finance spokespeople are.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/453386/govt-books-2020-2021-financial-statements-show-deficit-of-4-point-6-billion

    • Nic the NZer 9.1

      Both Goldsmith (8 billion) and Joyce (14 billion) didn't think treasuries (10 billion over 6 months) forecasting error was that worthy of comment.

  10. Poission 10

    Sudden stratospheric warming underway in Antarctica,Southern annular mode switched negative,and vortex breaks down.

    Bring your Kale into the barns.

    http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_sh.gif

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

    • In Vino 10.1

      Ouch. If this follows Northern Hemisphere patterns, we may well be swept with Antarctic cool while the Antarctic warms. And a whole lot of muppets will say, "How can the planet possible be warming??"

  11. ianmac 11

    Earthquake Top of the South 2:55. About 10 seconds.

    • Gezza 11.1

      "Weak" 5.1 mag, 80 km north of French Pass, according to Geonet.

      Felt a sizeable single jolt, rattled the house, here in North Welly.

  12. Sabine 12

    Oh look we have a surplus again! Virtual surplus, based on the gains of government properties, but hey, surely the bank will loan on that equity right? Or maybe we already have buyers?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/surplus-inches-closer-as-government-books-billions-of-dollars-on-rising-property-values/YD4F7N3P3D7P6TKQGAZGFVEKEI/

    This reminds me of a day in 1997, when then Finance Minister Theo Waigel of Germany re-evaluated the Gold reserves held by hte German Government to qualify Germany for European economic and monetary union. Suddenly all the criteria was met, and well the rest is history. Lol

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB864581478643282000

    Surplus! Surplus!

    yei yei hey hey

    Surplus!

    • Nic the NZer 12.1

      Treasury prefers it that way. Please keep focusing on the bottom line. Please also ignore the $10 billion (over 6 months) forecasting error. Additionally please don't understand that if the govt had spent an additional 10 billion in the last 6 months treasury already vetted the impacts of that on other economic variables as being fine. And for heavens sake do not realise that an eventual surplus of $N involves those $N being paid out of NZers savings and debt levels.

  13. observer 13

    This may have been covered here before (there's a lot to read on all the Open Mikes!) but anyway, it's worth a repeat.

    A quick and easy game (less than 5 mins) where you get to make all the Covid decisions in government (h/t Newshub). And then you have to deal with the consequences … Link here:

    https://www.kiaoramrwills.com/COVID-19.html

    It's unduly pessimistic on the numbers IMO, but never mind. It's a useful reminder that every option, from full opening up to tanks on the streets, would have repercussions. A few commentators should try it and test their empty reckons.

    Happy to report that as PM I got the R number right down and saved the country. Unfortunately this cost me my job … sad

    See if you can do better.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1

      Good fun – this PM went down fighting. Maybe managing NZ's response to the pandemic isn't as easy as the armchair critics reckon.

  14. Lukas 14

    Aside from “not being Judith” what has Labour achieved since coming to power?

    Journey back with me to 2017- a bright eyed Jacinda made her first promise as leader of the Labour party to bring light rail from the CBD to the Airport by 2021. Now I just checked my calendar and we have 81 days left until 2021 comes to an end. Last time I checked 0.00 metres of track have been laid. The workers are going to have to pull out a few big shifts to accomplish this promise!

    Diving deeper into the 2017 manifesto quickly over my morning cup of tea…

    Nurses in all high schools … last time I checked (and I do have an OIA request in to get the official number) this wasn’t started?

    Kiwibuild – remember the good old days of Kiwibuild? Promise of 1,000 homes built in the first year increasing to 5,000 built in 2019 and then the lofty goal of 10,000 per year from 2020. Grand total we should be at based on just these numbers- 26K by the end of this year. Last number report = 1,169 as at August 2021. The positive here is that they have ticked off the first years goal… over three years in…

    Skypath (no not a new Bond movie…)- another great promise from 2017 where we were going to get a bike and pedestrian crossing for (what now seems like a bargain price) $30M. Fast forward to 2021 and we have no progress but have spent over $50M on another version of the crossing that has been put on the scrap heap! Clap. Clap.

    Remember the great headline generating quote that tackling climate change was “my generation's nuclear-free moment." Plaudits flowed around the world. Then reality struck- this year we imported more coal for power generation than any year previous. It is purely a coincidence that Megan woods basically closed down the natural oil and gas industry in NZ overnight back in 2018.

    Lucky we have a Government with a strong track record on prudent spending to see us through this massive amount of debt we’ve taken on to get the country through COVID though right? Right? They only spend money on quality projects such as funding a series of collaborative quilts for Jess Jonhson and her Mother… sure it is only $17,850 right? Noting that someone on $80K per year would pay $17K in income tax so basically paid tax the entire year for Jess to make some quilts with her Mum… very nice.

    So – the end of my rant… National is a shambles, we get that. But is this really what you want to support? Aside from slogans about kindness and team of five million… what has Jacinda and Labour achieved? What will their legacy be? And when Jacinda moves on… who is actually there to take up the leadership?

    The two main parties in NZ politics have shown us they can achieve… nothing. What can the alternative be?

    • observer 14.1

      Sounds like you've bought into talking points from the taxpayers' onion.

      Labour have fallen short in various areas, but if you want a serious debate you'll need better lines than somehow linking NZ's low debt with Jess Johnson.

    • Craig Hall 14.2

      Cancelled National Parties tax bracket moves and increased Working for Families and Accommodation Supplements substantially

      Added a new tax bracket for the very high income earners

      Bright line test extended

      Property losses ringfenced

      Property interest deduction reduced

      Overseas investment in property mostly banned

      Increased benefit rates by the most seen in a generation (still work to do of course)

      Indexed benefits to average wage increases rather than CPI

      Introduced Winter Energy Payment

      Free lunches in schools

      Increased Student Allowances

      Fees free scheme (1st year at tertiary institutes, free apprenticeships)

      Restored adult night class funding

      Kainga Ora building more than 2,000 houses/year

      Improved tenancy legislation by eliminating no-fault terminations by landlords

      Credit contract reform

      Increased minimum wage to $20

      Extended paid parental leave to 26 weeks (from 18)

      Increased sick leave to 10 days p.a.

      Matariki

      Improved Employment Relations Act – union delegates now specifically protected, collective agreements must include pay, 90 day trial removed for medium and large employers, breaks reinstated

      Pay equity legislation and settlements e.g. social workers, admin workers, teacher aides, nurses and ECE teachers coming, others in the pipelines

      Feebates for electric cars

      Reduction in prisoner numbers by over 15%

      Restored voting rights for prisoners with less than 3 year sentences (I think that's a net positive, but acknowledge that others will disagree)

      That's some off the top of my head, I'm sure there are others. Still, other than what must be close to the lowest Covid death rate in the world and a negative excess mortality rate, what they done for us lately?

      • Gezza 14.2.2

        That’s quite an impressive list. Gonna copy & keep that.
        ………………………………………….

        “Reduction in prisoner numbers by over 15%”

        ………………………………………….

        Yes, but what’s happening with the crime rate? This info seems hard to come by.

        My “impression” from reporting – and from personal experience of some youth offenders were intimidating shopkeepers & stealing from local dairies, and another group who smashed 5 local car windows trying to steal cars, including mine – is that it’s increasing.

    • Shanreagh 14.3

      For some people an 'all bets are off the table' while we deal with Covid approach to govt is what they are focussing on. Kudos for them will come based on that.

      For many the idea of looking at a 2017 manifesto will seem a delightful 'those were the days exercise.' Possibly looking at the 2017 manifesto and what was achieved prior to Feb 2020 would be a fairer way of looking at it.

      When reading the list from Craig Hall 14.2 I am heartened that other aspects are/have been dealt with and know that work will be ongoing in many govt depts, not linked to the covid response to investigate, and bring up policy matters to Govt. Ministers will still be focussing on ideas/policies in their portfolios.

    • mac1 14.4

      Lukas, go to this web site for a list of Labour's achievements up to May this year. Far too long to list.

      https://www.labour.org.nz/our-record

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